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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 269-269 or other close election in 2016 on: May 09, 2014, 09:49:45 am


This would be mine with Wisconsin being the make or break, until the GOP can win a statewide race in Colorado or Virginia, which would have been the make or break state(s)
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker/Martinez vs. Cuomo/Klobuchar on: April 14, 2014, 11:32:18 am
I don't see why walker wouldn't be able to carry his home state, especially if he wins a third election this year by a similar margin.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Gallup: US Seniors have realigned with the Republican Party on: April 03, 2014, 11:15:57 am
US seniors are disproportionately white and don't like the blacks. What a surprise... The sooner they croak, the better for the country.

Now you can be banned, I hope.

So it's okay for people to wish for the death of people b/c of gay rights but not for civil rights?

#logic

Whoa, whoa, whoa. As a born-again Christian, I believe that everyone should be treated with respect and kindness, but on the grounds of my faith I disagree with the legalization of gay marriage. Does that sound like hatred to you? You would actually wish for my death just because I disagree with your views about a life issue?

I too am a firm born-again believer with a personal relationship with Christ. However, I respectfully disagree with you on legalizing gay marriage.

In short, There is a difference between civil marriage (recognized legally by the state), and Holy matrimony (God and the church). To me, I don't think anyone on the pro-side is trying to force churches to allow it. That's why it's a legal issue entirely.

I would also like to add that divorce is what's destroying the sanctity of marriage, not homosexuality.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How likely would this map be in the coming years? on: April 03, 2014, 10:22:58 am
2016:
Clinton/Warner vs. Paul/Ayotte



If Hillary declines to run for reelection:
2020:
Warner/Booker Vs. Susana Martinez/Rick Snyder or vice versa?




My thought is Dem fatigue vs. fresh faces and maybe more moderate appeal.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: March 05, 2014, 03:10:49 pm
As one of the most important swing states in the nation, I thought it would be interesting to look at the trends in some key Florida counties, and the reason for their trends. Any Florida peeps are welcome to jump in.

Miami-Dade: The largest county in the state. Historically lean D over the past 20 years. Shifted hard D in 2012. Are younger Cubans in the county moving away from the Republicans?

Palm Beach County: Has been a strong D county for decades but is quickly trending R. Romney was the first R candidate to get over 40% since 1988. Could be a sign of the older voters becoming more R.

Sumter County: An old person Oasis, thanks to The Villages. It has become extremely Republican through the years. A good microcosm of the white senior citizen vote.

Orange/Osceola County: These two counties in the greater Orlando area often shift together in elections. In the 80s and 90s they were strong R, in the Bush era they were swing counties and in the Obama era they are very strong D. Good for Dems as well because they are two of the fastest growing counties in Florida. Growing diversity is probably the main reason for the shift.

Volusia County: This county always fascinated me as it is a coastal county in Northern Florida with some southern influences (Daytona) that still voted D from 1992 to 2008. However, Romney won the county in 2012. Does anybody know the reason behind the R swing?

Duval County: Home of Jacksonville, probably the most culturally southern major city in Florida. For years the county was pretty safe R but has been trending D since around 2000. Obama came within two points of winning there in 2008. Possibly the black population is increasing?

Broward County: Surprisingly stable, considering its size and demographic transformation. Since the 90s it has been very reliably D and remains so today. My guess is that the olds who are becoming more R are being counterbalanced by minorities and immigrants becoming more D.





This analysis seems spot on.

What about Tampa though, I think the counties in and around Tampa are the most critical going forward, if they start voting like the Orlando counties the GOP is going to have serious problems.

Yes, I should have added Pinellas and Hillsborough. It was just hard for me to comment on them because the Tampa Bay area is the only major region in Florida I haven't visited. What I can see is that the two counties aren't trending as hard to the left as Orange/Osceola. Somebody from Florida is welcome to add their input.

What I do know is that Tampa is sort of the gateway to SW Florida, which is very Republican, while Orlando is more of a gateway to dark blue SE Florida. Tampa is whiter than Orlando too, so I think for that reason the region will stay swingy for a while.

I've been living in Orlando since 2010. It seems to me that the 44-45% threshold for the GOP would serve as the tipping point statewide. I say that bc that's what Rick Scott got here in 2010...my prediction is 38% in the county.

Not sure how much truth there is to Orange/Osceola counties moving together going forward. There was virtually no change in Obama's numbers from 2008-12 whereas he broke 60% in Osceola county. I would expect that the GOP's floor on the presidential level is 40% in Orange County.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: March 05, 2014, 02:55:47 pm
Volusia is near the Space Coast, right? That'd cause a rightward shift.
Why, may I ask?

My guess would be the NASA shutdown on Obama's watch.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Mike Dukakis gain or lose electoral ground in the final weeks? on: March 03, 2014, 11:46:08 am
Connecticut and Vermont I could see given they were still close to the national average and more of a republican history. Maryland doesn't make sense to me as to why any democrat should have lost that one. Even carter won that twice
8  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Christianity and gay marriage on: February 14, 2014, 03:22:50 pm
Southern Evangelical Christian; biblically against, legally for.

In a nutshell, every citizen has the same legal rights as everyone else. Keep a strong separation of church and state, protecting the churches who disagree with same sex marriage from state and federal lawsuits.

To expound a bit on the second part of that, churches typically set up a list of core beliefs, each one of them adhering to a range of a liberal to literal interpretation of scripture.  Just as an aside, I attend one that does a great job at taking the Word contextually - referencing to the Hebrew and Greek of the Old and New Testaments, respectively. Regarding the issue of marriage, the state shouldn't interfere with whatever the church decides in its interpretation of scripture on sin.

The problem the Right has with it is the fear of being forced to recognize and be "OK" with something they honestly believe is a sin.

The problem the Left has with opposing this, I believe, is from a legal perspective entirely.

Just an observation here...I hear so many arguments of how gay marriage is destroying the sanctity of marriage. Well, look no further than in the "Church of America" and you will find hat the divorce rate is the same as that outside the church.

DIVORCE is what's destroying families and the sanctity of marriage. The Bible is very clear on how God hates divorce.


9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Lake County, Florida Election Results on: February 11, 2014, 02:53:57 pm
Could you put together an Orange County map? I'd be interested to see how the precincts breakdown on my side of town. Thanks!
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker vs Elizabeth Warren on: August 28, 2013, 02:48:35 pm
Walker/Rubio vs. Warren/Warner:



tossups are VA, PA, NV, CO, IA, MN.

Gut says warren wins MN, NV and Walker wins IA. PA, VA, and CO are down to the wire and could produce a 269-269 if warren wins all 3.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: "Who would fictional characters vote for?" omnibus thread on: July 21, 2013, 02:24:48 am
Walt Disney Company (my employer)
classical Disney characters:

Mickey Mouse - Obama
Minnie Mouse - Romney
Pluto - Obama (the dog vote)
Donald Duck - Romney
Daisy Duck - Romney

Goof Troop: (clearly a generational difference)
Goofy Goof- Romney
Max Goof - Obama
Roxanne - Obama
Pete Pete - Romney
Meg Pete - Romney
PJ Pete - Obama
Pistol Pete - Obama

Winnie the Pooh:
Christopher Robin - Romney
Pooh - Romney
Piglet - Romney
Tigger - Ron Paul?
Gopher - Romney
Owl - Obama
Eeyore - Obama
Roo - Obama
Kanga - Obama
Rabbit - Romney

disney princesses:
Jasmine - Obama
Belle - Obama
Cinderella - Romney
Aurora - Romney
Snow White - Romney
Mulan - Obama

Villains:
Jafar - Obama
Malificent - Obama
Cruella DeVil - Romney
Gaston - Romney
Evil Queen - Obama

The Lion King:
Mufasa - Romney
Scar - Obama
hyenas - Obama
Simba - probably Ron Paul
Timon/Pumbaa - Ron Paul
Nala - Obama


12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election Night 2012 Timeline on: May 01, 2013, 07:38:39 am
So who wins NM, OR, and WA?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Into the Next Millenium on: April 20, 2013, 02:38:22 pm
I would love to see a geographical representation of the election outcomes if that's possible Smiley
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election Night 2012 Timeline on: April 16, 2013, 03:03:36 pm
Just curious, but aren't networks required to wait until polls close on the West Coast, since that could affect  voting in semi-close states like Oregon, Washington? And It's such a sizable portion of the country still voting anyhow.

See the 1992 and 1996 elections

I meant to add "since 2000" in the wake of the national chaos that year. Obviously the previous 5 elections to that were landslides electorally,popular vote or both. In 2008, Obama won substantially, yet no one actually called the race until 11:00 EST when CA, OR, WA, ID, and HI had finished voting. I find it interesting.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election Night 2012 Timeline on: April 12, 2013, 05:41:36 pm
Just curious, but aren't networks required to wait until polls close on the West Coast, since that could affect  voting in semi-close states like Oregon, Washington? And It's such a sizable portion of the country still voting anyhow.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election Night 2012 Timeline on: April 11, 2013, 09:25:30 am
I wonder if the hypothetical Obama camera scandal combined with a double dip would it be enough for Romney to break through in states like Oregon and Washington? or Minnesota? PLease finish the timeline!
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election Night 2032 on: April 10, 2013, 02:44:31 pm
The third number is the shading. A 4 means 40%, 5 means 50%, and so on.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So, now that the GOP is abandoning gay marriage... on: March 27, 2013, 11:37:45 pm
As they should. There's no turning back at this point. Once it passes at the federal level, I don't think it will be an issue in discussion of overturning it.

I think the only way for Republicans to keep evangelicals turning out in the future and for them to be able to accept gay marriage simultaneously is that they promise to protect the rights of churches who oppose same sex marriage to freedom of speech, essentially becoming a conservatively slanted separation of church and state argument.

That has been my position for a long time (separation of church and state). I say go for it at a government level, but don't force my church to recognize something we strongly believe is sin.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2016: 269-269 Electoral College on: March 06, 2013, 10:09:39 pm


This is 269-269. Anyone care to put a story behind this one?

I'll go for it...

Both parties get together and decide they're going to work together for real this time. They plan from the very beginning to make it a 269-269 tie where there will be a Dem and a GOP working together in the White House. They decide the best way to do this without letting the American people know of their diabolical plan to confuse them is to draw states out of a hat and label them blue or red.

In order to make it not look like any sudden changes in the electorate, they produce the following nominees:

the nominees are Chris Christie (R-NJ) / Linda Lingle (R-HI), and Julian Castro (D-TX) / Mary Landreiu (D-LA).

Coincidentally,

1) The entire Mormon population from Idaho and Montana move to Nevada as the Hispanic population suddenly gets tired of Colorado and moves to Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
2) Indiana invades Illinois and annexes Cook County.
3) There's a mass producing of ballots in NYC that say Christie (D) and Castro (R)
4) Canada invades the United States (MI) and conquers Detroit.
5) A hurricane wipes out half the Democratic voters in VA, MD, DE, and NJ, and the rest of them flee to Georgia and NC.
6) Old white Retirees moving to MIssouri suddenly become a socially liberal bastion voting block and start voting solid Democrat
7) New England gets together and decides that they all hate the state of Maine

Plausible??
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC/WSJ polls Christie, Rubio favorability on: February 28, 2013, 12:37:26 am
Maybe a Christie/Rubio ticket is in the works...
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: Federal Marriage Amendment "Steps on the Rights of States" on: February 25, 2013, 04:51:50 pm
Well, for starters, that's the way things are headed, and Republicans better realize that. I can see the SC overturning DOMA within the year or next (remember 4 states passed this already). It would be good for them to stop fighting the inevitable. If you were to ask me where I stand, it's this: While I disagree with the homosexual lifestyle, I believe that we have the freedom to live the life we choose to live. With that, all American citizens deserve equal protection under the law.

Rubio, like some Republcians, are already beginning to change their tone on this issue. I don't think he really believes that it's a states rights issue, and I would call on him to just be honest about it.

I don't think my position is that out of the mainstream. I would encourage other conservatives to adopt this as well. As a party, we preach the core issues of personal responsibility, personal freedom, and liberty and justice for all. It's about time we start walking the walk.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: Federal Marriage Amendment "Steps on the Rights of States" on: February 25, 2013, 03:44:02 pm
Agreed that the state's rights rhetoric is applicable for certain things, but not for a nationwide issue of equality. Rubio should have said something to the effect of, "my personal beliefs will in no way shape or form discriminate against having equal protection under the federal law for ALL American citizens." In fact, I think all conservatives can and should get behind that even if they oppose it on a personal level.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will the next "Wave Year" be? on: February 23, 2013, 05:07:23 pm
If a Democrat gets elected in 2016, a 1992-style Republican "landslide" victory could happen in 2020. Everything goes in cycles. By then, the Republicans will have re-invented themselves as they must for survival.

I wouldn't be so sure...

If 2016 is a bad enough loss for the GOP, (and in a weird sort of way, I hope it is), there will be a huge movement to moderate and/or shift the focus from social issues as a dominant force. I want to be able to call myself a Republican again without embarassment.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will the next "Wave Year" be? on: February 22, 2013, 12:41:39 am
If a Democrat gets elected in 2016, a 1992-style Republican "landslide" victory could happen in 2020. Everything goes in cycles. By then, the Republicans will have re-invented themselves as they must for survival.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bob McDonnell: "time to have a discussion" about arming school officials on: December 19, 2012, 04:16:11 pm
I would be in favor of it from a job creation standpoint. Think of all the unemployed veterans trying to return to normal life. However, the root of these types of violence is the mental capacity of the assailants. Gun laws will always be broken by criminals.
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