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51  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: My maps for where the race stands right now and where it will be on November 6th on: October 11, 2012, 07:04:18 pm
Quote from: auburntiger
Or this:  Romney wins in the swing states and his GOTV trumps and early voting is a wash for either side. I think we're already seeing that happening.

Wait, what? Where are you seeing that Romney's GOTV is trumping Obama's and that early voting is a wash? More curious about the first claim. Everything I've read suggests that Romney's GOTV effort is mediocre compared to Obama's.

Sorry I meant trumping the 2008 GOP GOTV efforts essentially closing the gap with Obama's advantage. Still 3 wks to go. It could happen. Like I said, it's two different scenarios.
52  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: My maps for where the race stands right now and where it will be on November 6th on: October 11, 2012, 12:30:44 am
Right now, it's this...



But I think on Election Night itself, we're more likely to see a narrow Romney win or a 2008-style Obama win. IIRC, there hasn't been an election in the modern era at least since 1900 where a president was re-elected to a second term with fewer electoral votes AND a smaller share of the popular vote.

So, in the end, if I may make two maps, we're going to either see this:
Obama wins in the swing states and his GOTV effort is able to re-2008 itself:


Or this:  Romney wins in the swing states and his GOTV trumps and early voting is a wash for either side. I think we're already seeing that happening.


I would bet against something to the effect of having a regional split where Obama wins OH, VA and Romney takes NC, FL, CO.
We have 26 days til Election Day. I still think it's Obama's race to lose.

53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Marco Rubio or Susana Martinez ran in 2016 on: October 01, 2012, 11:01:16 pm
It will depend alot on Obama's approval ratings/Democrat brand that is.

Scenario 1:
If the economy looks to be recovering, and Obama's policies are seen as a success, barring any major gaffes from either party, and if the GOP nominates Rubio/McDonnell, a close election could look like this:

It all comes down to Ohio. Rubio takes FL 54-46 and VA 51-49, and he takes one of the southwest tri-fecta (CO, NV, NM)



Now, switch out Rubio with Martinez (The GOP would still keep a white male on the ticket). I say they keep MCDonnell because of the swing state prize of Virginia.

Once again, it comes down to Ohio. Here, there is a very narrow win of 270 for the Dems.



Scenario 2:
Obama's policies are preceived as a disaster, and there is a second recession over the last 3 years starting in 2013, and continues to get worse, and by 2016, unemployment is still in the 8-10% range. No matter how much Obama is likable, he is perceived as a failure in the same regard Bush was by 2008. But let's say the Dems counter this by nominating a woman VP (Kobluchar?) with Cuomo as the nominee.

With Rubio, the map could look like this:



With Martinez/McDonnell, the women vote and hispanic vote essentially neutralized, the map could look like this:







54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Institute of 2016 watch: Christie and Walker to New Hampshire on: September 29, 2012, 01:12:18 am
Of course this is all assuming an Obama win, in which I doubt Ryan would run in 2016 if he and Romney lose badly this year. Walker has been elected statewide...twice, and an absolute majority at that. The GOP has really been going after Wisconsin lately, and although 2012 may not be there year here, 2016 most definitely would be with Walker as the nominee.

I just don't see CHristie really getting anywhere though
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What happens to the GOP if they fail in November? on: September 25, 2012, 10:27:18 pm
What has done in the GOP this cycle is (A) the absence of A-list candidates in the primary process, and (B) the lack of credibility their standard bearer.  Mitt Romney will be the very last GOP candidate for the GOP that will not be a true "movement conservative".

The GOP is down in the polls due solely to the personal shortcomings of Mitt Romney.  Romney's unpopularity has little to do with his positions on issues; it has much to do with the perception that he is man with no core principles who made a Faustian bargain with conservatives that has not worked out well for movement conservatives.

If Romney loses, the conservative base will take steps to ensure that a movement conservative who is ready for prime time will be the candidate in 2016.  This probably rules out Jeb Bush, and it will probably rule out Paul Ryan, who has lost standing during this campaign.  I believe that by the end of 2013, movement conservatives will be coalescing around a particular movement conservative candidate to make sure that there are no more McCains and no more Romneys.

If by "movement conservative" you mean tea-party, this is huge risk for Republicans in 2016. It's going to matter how Obama is perceived that year. If his second term is a success, I very doubt the tea-party would be strong enough force to put forth a candidate to win then. However, if his second term is a failure, GOP could win, but it's going to be a tight rope to walk in the electoral college. Could states like PA, MI, or MN be realistic opportunities for pickups?

The question for the GOP will ultimately be, how do we expand the map, and from that a strong winning coalition in Suburbia? Call it the Suburban Strategy.
We have only seen 2010 as evidence so far for success of the tea party movement and only that in selective states.

That said, if the GOP nominates a Rick Perry type, they might as well wait til 2020. If it's a Huntsman type, that would be the best thing for them.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ryan/Huntsman in 2016? on: September 24, 2012, 09:47:20 pm
Yes.

He would be my first choice in 2016. I'm just not confident that he would make it through the primary. Maybe if this year is bad enough, they will realize they need a new approach.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ryan/Huntsman in 2016? on: September 24, 2012, 08:29:57 pm
Is huntsman still a republican?
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What happens to the GOP if they fail in November? on: September 24, 2012, 07:17:15 pm
SUBURBIA!

Republicans cannot afford to keep losing suburbia and win elections. That's been the trend since 2000 and it doesn't seem to be reversing. They used to have room to breathe when CA, IL, MI, NJ, PA, CT were trending blue and stayed blue, but now NV, CO, VA are slipping away and picking up steam moving in the democrats direction...there are now too few paths to victory.

If the republicans want to make a comeback and build a winning coalition, their underlying theme should be: let's make the government more efficient and work for us better, rather than the slash spending tea
Party rhetoric.

They must drop the anti-regulation rhetoric as some are just basic necessities (water, air, roads) but tork it up on reducing for things like small businesses, etc. Be pro-life, but emphasize the constitutionality of roe v wade, and introduce plans to reduce the number of abortions. Recognize that suburbia has in fact become more urban, and therefore some spending and transportation services are necessary. They must drop the xenophobic mentality and be strong on making it easier to become citizens and deport those who commit crimes. The anti-gay rhetoric will only further alienate. Candidates can be for traditional marriage, but be pro-civil unions or at least make the argument that places of worship should not be forced to recognize a union that's against their beliefs (protecting the separation of church and state). Especially if the financial crisis gets worse, we must phase out the entities that drag down our GDP (not immediately cut them). Education: reward teachers on merit. Climate change: pursue legislation protecting our environment. Eliminate the tax loopholes for the wealthy.

Basically, a big-tent mentality and recognize there is middle ground! Maybe Jon Huntsman or a like-minded candidate would be a good start.
59  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will less states change allegiances than 2004? on: September 24, 2012, 04:04:31 pm
With the following 4 being "must-wins" for Romney (OH, VA, NC, FL), I would be shocked to see him go 0-4. After one of his worst weeks (guess it could get worse), RCP has the map at 347-191 without tossups and 247-191 with tossups. You could argue 191 is Romney's base.

With all the money being spent in NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, NC, FL, NH, I think by sheer luck he's able to win 1 if not 2 of the 9. I'll project a 303-235 result (GOP wins IN, NC, FL). With that, he can at least say he has a respectable loss.  
60  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney releases 2011 tax record on: September 21, 2012, 02:01:43 pm
To be fair, the report did state that he paid $4mil (30%) in charitable giving, which partially explains why his tax rate is so low. So that's 44% total giving away. I don't think this is really an issue.
61  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Don't predict that ANYONE will get 315-350 electoral votes on: September 20, 2012, 08:56:03 pm
I agree with this assessment.

In the end, 303-235 is not out of the question (IN, NC, FL, NE-02) move from Obama to Romney, and he holds AZ and MO.

On the flip side, Obama would have to win Indiana again (unlikely) or flip MO and AZ (also unlikely at this point as well)

This would also be the first time in years a president is re-elected to a second term with fewer electoral votes AND smaller share of the popular vote.
62  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Romney finished? on: September 12, 2012, 08:05:01 pm
No, but the debates are his last life line, and that could be the difference between a 280-90 EV win, and a 340-50 EV loss. I'd also note that if Obama is reelected, this may be the first time a president wins a 2nd term with fewer electoral votes and a smaller share of the popular vote.
63  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Campaign: CO, NV, OH and VA will decide General Election on: April 10, 2012, 01:52:39 pm
So Romney is considering Florida to be safe for him? Is their new Governor even better at stealing elections than Jeb was?

No, not at all. Florida will be close as usual. And he will campaign heavily here as both parties do. If FL is a true swing state, Obama has already won. The RNC next door tampa could make it more GOP than usual, kinda like MN was in 2008 (less DEM)
64  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post your FL predictions here on: January 28, 2012, 12:47:30 pm
Romney 41%
Newt 33%
Santorum 12%
Paul 12%
Others 2%

breakdown by region:
Panhandle (Emerald Coast/ Central Time) = Strong Gingrich
North central FL (tallahassee area) = Slight Gingrich
NE FL (jacksonville and other rural areas) = Tossup
Central FL/Space Coast (I-4 - Orlando/Tampa/Daytona Beach) = Lean Romney
Sun Coast (West Coast)  = Lean Romney
South Florida (Gold Coast)= Strong Romney
65  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-F&M: Santorum gets Casey-nized by Obama on: January 27, 2012, 04:27:48 pm
PA won't be that big of a blowout and who are the other 29%? joke poll
66  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Living in Florida on: January 25, 2012, 11:34:11 pm
Are any of them coming to Orlando? If so, when? I'd like to get a piece of the action.
67  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Rasmussen: Gingrich leading on: January 23, 2012, 12:15:06 pm
I will not be voting for Gingrich...not in the primary, and if nominated, most definitely not in the general. I was a reliable Republican, but am now just a registered one for primary purposes. I don't plan on returning until or if the party becomes sane party again.

I hope that my fellow Floridians are better than this!

I'm voting for Gingrich only so Obama has a better shot at winning.

I am undecided in the general as of right now, considering all Republican candidates are pretty awful, Romney being the least. If it's Gingrich/??, then this will be my first time voting Democratic for POTUS. I am planning on voting for Romney in the primary.

What party affiliation are you registered as? And what part of the state do you live in?
68  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Rasmussen: Gingrich leading on: January 23, 2012, 11:38:14 am
I will not be voting for Gingrich...not in the primary, and if nominated, most definitely not in the general. I was a reliable Republican, but am now just a registered one for primary purposes. I don't plan on returning until or if the party becomes sane party again.

I hope that my fellow Floridians are better than this!
69  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who would Obama rather face? on: January 20, 2012, 09:33:42 am
Since the number 270 is all that matters, he'd rather face Gingrich. 
70  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney Veep Stakes on: January 12, 2012, 10:01:30 am
If it's all about being safe with a vp choice, he should definitely pick McDonnell, not only bc he's more conservative, but he's from VA, a swing state.
71  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL: Quinnipiac University: Romney leads Obama by 3 on: January 11, 2012, 01:17:13 pm
Florida is highly competitive in any election year these days. Panhandle and north Florida are solid republican, while south Florida is solid democrat. Elections are won and lost in central Florida, and here in Orlando, things are likely to shake up. The RNC in Tampa was no accident, as Hillsboro county has carried Florida for the state-wide winner in every presidential election since 1960.
Obama is not very well-liked among the people I come across, which is a bad sign given the high volatility of the region. While the governor is unpopular, he will not be on the ballot, so that will have very little if no effect here.

Prediction: Republcians take Florida by about 2.5%
72  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP - Obama leads Romney by one, ties with Santorum on: January 11, 2012, 12:43:53 pm
Republicans won't make the same mistake and take NC for granted, same with Indiana.
It will be a VERY interesting dynamic in NC with the DNC, combined with an unpopular governor, and a redistricting nightmare for Dems.
I'm not saying that Obama won't win here again, given the state will be about 4 points to the right of the national average, down from 7. But, as mentioned above, the state politics could be a factor. 2008 was a perfect year for democrats here.
In the end, North Carolina will be about even or a point more Dem than Florida, but a tad more republican than Ohio or virginia.

Basically, I think republicans will pick up NC around 3-5%.

73  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Santorum cant buy any ads in NH or SC. Mittbot and his PACs bought all airtime on: January 06, 2012, 09:56:20 pm
All of this senseless Romney bashing makes me like him better. I would never consider anyone other than him or huntsman. Extremism has destroyed this country. 
74  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Romney consider any of the candidates as a running mate? on: January 06, 2012, 09:36:22 pm
Virginia looks like it could be the pendulum state this time, even more Dem than NH, but only if it's Romney. If i were Romney, i Would choose Bob McDonnell would be a wise choice for both electorally and not scaring away moderates/independents.
75  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rothenberg's election ratings on: December 03, 2011, 09:52:39 am
Colorado and Ohio should be tossups and Missouri should be lean-GOP. with Romney, NH should be lean-GOP.
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