No, but the debates are his last life line, and that could be the difference between a 280-90 EV win, and a 340-50 EV loss. I'd also note that if Obama is reelected, this may be the first time a president wins a 2nd term with fewer electoral votes and a smaller share of the popular vote.

So Romney is considering Florida to be safe for him? Is their new Governor even better at stealing elections than Jeb was?

No, not at all. Florida will be close as usual. And he will campaign heavily here as both parties do. If FL is a true swing state, Obama has already won. The RNC next door tampa could make it more GOP than usual, kinda like MN was in 2008 (less DEM)

Romney 41%
Newt 33%
Santorum 12%
Paul 12%
Others 2%

breakdown by region:
Panhandle (Emerald Coast/ Central Time) = Strong Gingrich
North central FL (tallahassee area) = Slight Gingrich
NE FL (jacksonville and other rural areas) = Tossup
Central FL/Space Coast (I-4 - Orlando/Tampa/Daytona Beach) = Lean Romney
Sun Coast (West Coast)  = Lean Romney
South Florida (Gold Coast)= Strong Romney

PA won't be that big of a blowout and who are the other 29%? joke poll

Are any of them coming to Orlando? If so, when? I'd like to get a piece of the action.

I will not be voting for Gingrich...not in the primary, and if nominated, most definitely not in the general. I was a reliable Republican, but am now just a registered one for primary purposes. I don't plan on returning until or if the party becomes sane party again.

I hope that my fellow Floridians are better than this!

I'm voting for Gingrich only so Obama has a better shot at winning.

I am undecided in the general as of right now, considering all Republican candidates are pretty awful, Romney being the least. If it's Gingrich/??, then this will be my first time voting Democratic for POTUS. I am planning on voting for Romney in the primary.

What party affiliation are you registered as? And what part of the state do you live in?

I will not be voting for Gingrich...not in the primary, and if nominated, most definitely not in the general. I was a reliable Republican, but am now just a registered one for primary purposes. I don't plan on returning until or if the party becomes sane party again.

I hope that my fellow Floridians are better than this!

Since the number 270 is all that matters, he'd rather face Gingrich. 

If it's all about being safe with a vp choice, he should definitely pick McDonnell, not only bc he's more conservative, but he's from VA, a swing state.

Florida is highly competitive in any election year these days. Panhandle and north Florida are solid republican, while south Florida is solid democrat. Elections are won and lost in central Florida, and here in Orlando, things are likely to shake up. The RNC in Tampa was no accident, as Hillsboro county has carried Florida for the state-wide winner in every presidential election since 1960.
Obama is not very well-liked among the people I come across, which is a bad sign given the high volatility of the region. While the governor is unpopular, he will not be on the ballot, so that will have very little if no effect here.

Prediction: Republcians take Florida by about 2.5%

Republicans won't make the same mistake and take NC for granted, same with Indiana.
It will be a VERY interesting dynamic in NC with the DNC, combined with an unpopular governor, and a redistricting nightmare for Dems.
I'm not saying that Obama won't win here again, given the state will be about 4 points to the right of the national average, down from 7. But, as mentioned above, the state politics could be a factor. 2008 was a perfect year for democrats here.
In the end, North Carolina will be about even or a point more Dem than Florida, but a tad more republican than Ohio or virginia.

Basically, I think republicans will pick up NC around 3-5%.

All of this senseless Romney bashing makes me like him better. I would never consider anyone other than him or huntsman. Extremism has destroyed this country. 

Virginia looks like it could be the pendulum state this time, even more Dem than NH, but only if it's Romney. If i were Romney, i Would choose Bob McDonnell would be a wise choice for both electorally and not scaring away moderates/independents.

Colorado and Ohio should be tossups and Missouri should be lean-GOP. with Romney, NH should be lean-GOP.

Remember when Massachusetts was supposed to be a shoe-in for the democrat? I know its utah and all, but Should the republicans really take this one lightly?

Great timeline. Please keep it up!

If things continue as they are Romney should win in a landslide.

R: 389
D: 149

I can't really see Washington or Oregon voting Republican (they vote by mail don't they?) no matter how bad things could get for Obama. They fall between 42-48%, unable to get above that. Minnesota is another example of this.

I could see New Jersey and Maine potentially being the 2008 equivalent of Indiana/NC if everything goes wrong for the Democrats next year.

And NC for that matter. They're tied there too

Probably something along these lines:


Romney's problems with the base will pale in comparison with the lagging economy.

It's Romney's "turn" this time. It can't be any more obvious to me. Romney's the only one that's risen above the fray however flawed he may be, and he is the only one that could beat Obama.

I say not likely. Indiana is gone and the only realistic shots of pickups (MO, AZ, and GA) aren't likely to switch. I think Florida is more likely to fall republican than NC, OH, or VA. He was never that popular in Florida to begin with. Virginia will be the pivotal state this time and could be more Dem than IA & NH this time.

Right now, my map has Obama losing IN, FL, OH, NC, NH, and NE-02 (btw, are they still going to vote by district, or has the R-legislature overturned that?) Obama winning 281-257 against Romney.

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, wisconsin, ennsylvania, Virginia and maybe Michigan and Maine-02 are potential switches depending how things look this time next year.

I think this is the max Romney could achieve.

Battleground states will be Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida

With each passing day, Obama looks weaker.

Romney's ability to defeat Obama are underestimated by too many liberals, he's actually in a very strong position as long as he can get past the hurdle of the primaries. His favorables with Moderates are almost in Scott Brown territory for a Republican: 43-38 compared to 22-65 for Bachmann. He's consistently as popular or more popular than Obama with Independents and swing voters.

Romney's strength pales compared to his weaknesses.  Sure, he might be able to make Democratic states like New Hampshire, New Jersey, Michigan, and Oregon close, but he also makes Republican states closer because they're less interested in him.  Now, in places like Arizona or Kansas that might not matter, but in places like Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia--where the race becomes a GOTV drive between hardcore, but not necessarily Republican, conservatives and African-American Democrats--who is going to entice their side to show up to the polls with more enthusiasm?

I can't see GA flipping to Obama. I think he maxed out in 2008.

Awesome timeline! I think if that actually happened, a seat would have to be added somewhere to avoid a tie in the future.

Definitely saw this coming. What a scumbag of a guy to deal with.