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September 26, 2016, 05:32:47 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-TargetSmart/William & Mary: Clinton +3 on: Today at 05:07:48 pm
Nate Cohen said the methodology looks like his FL/NC polls. Interesting...
Let the unskewing begin.

Huh?

Talking about poll methodology is unskewing, obviously.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac Clinton+1 (4 way and 2 way) on: Today at 08:32:03 am
Dems
Clinton 90%
Trump 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 86%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 5%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 42%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 15%
Stein 5%

These cross-tabs are just making no sense. It really does seem that a turnout crash (not drop but crash) is being anticipated.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you covered for dental? on: Today at 08:15:20 am
Yes. But the public insurance  doesn't cover it because I'm not poor (or young) enough to get access to the program for dental - my private insurance for dental is a joke.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dems should have gone with Bernie on: Today at 08:12:59 am
How do people win anything, if they can't deal with the difficult times.

Bernie would have had PLENTY of his own challenges (including some left alone in the primaries), don't fool yourself. Plus, if you believe in a candidate, don't bail when it gets difficult.

Now is not the time for this discussion. There is one goal, chicken-littling and second guessing does nothing except make things worse. Want to crash turnout, keep this nonsense up.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever liked Donald Trump? on: Today at 08:03:16 am
Lol, I don't get why anyone, anytime could like him?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 on: Today at 08:01:52 am
but..but Hillary landslide, how could anyone vote for that racist, misogynistic orange faced fascist and also I hate white people but Trump is racist. 

Wow. Congrats for reinforcing correct views about your candidate and why he appeal to people like you in a single idiotic sentence.

Wow, its like you can't detect sarcasm. When you finally beat the emu's come back to me.

Oh I can, you just didn't do it well.

Nor do you do cultural insults well. Oh just so I'm clear as to what I'm supposed to be doing, beat the Emu's what? 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Wason Center / Virginia: Clinton +10 (2-way) / +6 (5-way) on: Today at 07:57:03 am

Independent Voters (Hillary is 3rd :p )
TRUMP 32
Johnson 31(!)
Hillary 21
Mcmullin 5
Stein 4




Lol would Sanders be at 21???

Again... It doesn't matter now.

You're not an idiot but that seems to be your only contribution. Hillary's doing fine in the polls, not a peep. Then when it gets rocky up you pop. I do have an answer as to how I think Bernie would be doing, but it's not helpful or necessary now.

Also forgetting that "Independent" doesn't mean much any more. It could be anyone for any reason.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 on: Today at 07:53:33 am
but..but Hillary landslide, how could anyone vote for that racist, misogynistic orange faced fascist and also I hate white people but Trump is racist. 

Wow. Congrats for reinforcing correct views about your candidate and why he appeal to people like you in a single idiotic sentence.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac Clinton+1 (4 way and 2 way) on: Today at 07:32:13 am
Not much of a gender gap in this - Hillary up 5 with women, Trump up 4 with men.

Red flag about this poll...

And on Seriously?!?!!?'s point ... there's no way of knowing what the electorate is going to look like, so scoffing at a 2012-like electorate is just as silly.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 on: Today at 07:29:14 am
Absolutely horrid.

Send Bernie to CO and send Bill to PA.

Send Barry to both of them.

They have absolutely nothing planned in Colorado over the next week and there is no word yet of them going back on the air. Biden and Michelle Obama both have events this week in Pennsylvania (Joe in Philly, Michelle in Philly and Pittsburgh).

The problem is that PA is the closest swing state that allows short hops from DC.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Wason Center / Virginia: Clinton +10 (2-way) / +6 (5-way) on: Today at 07:04:54 am
Uh... Johnson @15?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC: CO: Trump +1 PA: Clinton +1 on: Today at 05:50:59 am
Well... this'll make things interesting
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Bloomberg: Trump +2 (4 way) tied (2 way) on: Today at 04:45:52 am
I fear for the future of this country. Hatred and idiocy has taken hold.

People really need to calm the f*** down.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Demographics and the Electorate on: Today at 04:15:20 am
Question - is there any analysis on what the polls projected turnout is? Obviously a single poll is unreliable, but if you aggregate some you should get a picture of what pollsters are predicting.

This is Reuters (who I can only praise for their willingness to share data)



That data makes no sense at all... I mean, wouldn't that suggest that turnout was largely stable 08-10-12? When it wasn't at all. I mean 2014 makes sense in relation to the data, considering 2010 turnout was only slightly better than 2014... Unless I'm completely misreading this.

Is it just me or is this an assumed projection...

The graph is RCP. They haven't used midterm data at all so that's misleading. It's been extended from 2012 to 2016 using Reuters turnout model.

That's even more ridiculous, then. They're comparing the final results, based on the cross-tabs in one poll, dependent current subjective LV screens?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Demographics and the Electorate on: Today at 03:59:57 am
Question - is there any analysis on what the polls projected turnout is? Obviously a single poll is unreliable, but if you aggregate some you should get a picture of what pollsters are predicting.

This is Reuters (who I can only praise for their willingness to share data)



That data makes no sense at all... I mean, wouldn't that suggest that turnout was largely stable 08-10-12? When it wasn't at all. I mean 2014 makes sense in relation to the data, considering 2010 turnout was only slightly better than 2014... Unless I'm completely misreading this.

Is it just me or is this an assumed projection...
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Demographics and the Electorate on: September 25, 2016, 07:35:10 pm
I think this thread is going to be important ...
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Gennifer Flowers at Monday's debate hurt Hillary or Trump more? on: September 24, 2016, 11:11:38 pm
It doesn't matter, it's disgusting.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: September 24, 2016, 09:05:46 am
MO - Trump +6
VA - Clinton +8
CO - Clinton +5

MO - TIE
CO - Bennett +11
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-JMC Analytics: Trump+6 on: September 24, 2016, 01:18:46 am
Undecideds go almost universally republican in GA. Looking like Clinton is close to being completely out of luck here.

+Ted Cruz endorsed TRUMP

Seriously... are you a troll or really that uninformed? The people Donald can't bring in aren't Cruz backers, they're already solidly in the clown car.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election Prediction 9/23/2016 on: September 24, 2016, 01:14:03 am
  Ted Cruz endorsed TRUMP. So,




I actually lol'd
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has anyone seen this bizarre video of Hillary? on: September 23, 2016, 10:35:31 pm
FOX News has been playing this for a couple days now

That tells you all you need to know.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's going on in Ohio and Iowa? on: September 23, 2016, 10:34:28 pm
I think Ohio is actually more likely to swing back out of the two.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has anyone seen this bizarre video of Hillary? on: September 23, 2016, 10:17:41 pm
No1curr
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election Prediction 9/23/2016 on: September 23, 2016, 09:07:46 pm
If NC is Lean Trump, no way are WI, MI, PA, and NH all Toss-Ups.

25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: September 23, 2016, 09:06:47 pm
Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.
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