Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 09, 2016, 08:54:42 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 650
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Final ARG NH Poll: CLINTON and TRUMP surging on: Today at 07:25:44 am

Not to be a **** about it, but if you're going to sass out someone, it's "allowed"
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Trump 35% Cruz 20% Rubio 17% Carson 7% on: Today at 07:10:54 am
Hmmm a polling period of a week?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Final CNN/WMUR poll: Sanders +26 on: Today at 06:33:27 am
They polled too many men, but it doesn't really matter. Just LOL at women under 35 going 87-9 for Bernie. He wins men under 35 by the same margin.

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is the most electable Republican candidate against Clinton? on: Today at 04:21:03 am
Kasich, Christie... Trump would need a lot to go right for him to be the strongest, but he could BECOME the strongest.

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking Midnight Towns NH Primary on: Today at 12:42:47 am
So for the Dem context (corrected)

Compared to 2008 - 21 total voters

Obama - 16 - 76.2%
Clinton - 3 - 14.3%
Edwards - 2 - 9.5%
Richardson - 1 - 4.8%

2016 - 28 total voters

Sanders - 17 - 61%
Clinton - 9 - 32%
Greenstein - 2 - 7%



6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking Midnight Towns NH Primary on: Today at 12:19:54 am
For reminders... This was Hart's Location in 2008

Barack Obama - 9   
Hillary Clinton - 3
John Edwards - 1


John McCain - 6   
Mike Huckabee - 5   
Ron Paul - 4   
Mitt Romney - 1   

2012

Mitt Romney - 5
Ron Paul - 4   
Jon Huntsman - 2   
Newt Gingrich - 1   
Rick Perry - 1
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking Midnight Towns NH Primary on: Today at 12:07:52 am
Some context... this was Dixville Notch in 2008

Democratic Primary

Barack Obama – 7
John Edwards – 2
Bill Richardson – 1

Republican Primary:

John McCain – 4
Mitt Romney – 2
Rudy Giuliani – 1

2012

Jon Huntsman, Jr. – 2
Mitt Romney – 2
Ron Paul – 1
Newt Gingrich – 1
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Emerson Poll on: February 08, 2016, 09:10:10 pm
Again... all of this being tempered by the serious reality that NH is NOTORIOUSLY bad and highly unreliable. Hence, why I've been arguing to stop worrying about the polls and just wait for the actual votes to be counted. 
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Emerson Poll on: February 08, 2016, 06:10:08 pm
4 point swing to Sanders since their last poll.

Wasn't Sanders much weaker in the previous Emerson poll in comparison to the consensus?

54-42 is pretty close to the polling average at the moment.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Emerson Poll on: February 08, 2016, 06:03:43 pm
It's up:

Trump 31%
Bush 16%
Kasich 13%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 11%

http://www.theecps.com

Lol, a Bush 2nd place would be HIL-AR-IOUS
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread on: February 08, 2016, 07:46:35 am
Why are we seriously discussing and analyzing f---ing ARG polls?

Let alone tracking polls... from NH. Guys, just wait until the actual votes get counted.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders agenda polls well with Americans on: February 08, 2016, 07:45:14 am
These are very generic terms plus, since most people regard themselves as not wealthy (even if they objectively are) and middle class, then it stands to reason.

Plus it's not like the first two issues are isolated to Bernie, they pretty standard progressive positions.  
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 08, 2016, 02:45:06 am
I don't think the gaffe is a big deal since Rubio looked fine the rest of the debate after Christie was finished being an attack dog. Just my opinion. Now had Rubio screwed up the rest of his debate performance after Christie's attacks than I would say the gaffe was a big deal.

Is anyone actually talking about anything else from the debate?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gloriana Steinem : Young women are for Bernie as that's where the boys are on: February 08, 2016, 02:28:35 am
a) It was a f***ing stupid thing for Steinem to say

b) Shadow... what is your actual MO to hang around here? Because so far, all you seem to do is unskew polls and try to pick fights.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Hampshire Set For Record Primary Turnout on: February 08, 2016, 02:19:41 am
So they're expecting the Dem number to be about 20k less than in 2008 and almost 50k more for the GOP in 08 and 35k more than 12. Hmmm...
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Sanders have to do to stay competitive after Super Tuesday. on: February 08, 2016, 12:17:53 am
Win things beforehand that he wouldn't be expected to?
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion 2.0 on: February 08, 2016, 12:16:22 am
Philip Ruddock to retire

Interesting movements today.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win? on: February 07, 2016, 09:02:51 pm
In order...

Vermont
Minnesota

then Colorado

Then unlikely to be much chance. Considering Clinton still won MA with everything against her there at the time, I don't see why she wouldn't hold up here.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-CNN/WMUR: D: Sanders 58% Clinton 35%; R: Trump 33% Rubio 16% Cruz 14% on: February 07, 2016, 07:21:42 pm
Ah NH polling, never change
20  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: President Forever results thread... on: February 07, 2016, 07:39:05 am
Bizarre... I haven't played for a while.

I ran as my character in the 2008 Dem primaries. I won IA, NH, NV and Obama won SC. Clinton won a few during Super Tuesday, but the writing was on the wall, and she withdrew and endorsed me before mini-Tuesday (OH, TX, VT and RI) which I swept.  But Obama would not give up.

I secured the nomination after winning North Carolina. I then started running national ads and the Dem numbers jumped. However, Obama didn't withdraw and refused anything short of the VP slot... so it seemed.

So I went to the convention with Obama still there... I chose Bill Richardson. The following week, the GOP chose Romney (who had secured the nomination in April) and he chose Giuliani as his running mate. Probably due to the contested nature of the Dem convention, we went through a bad patch.

Our numbers collapsed.



I got into a trough that I couldn't get out of, hit with scandals and just needed to dump money all over the shop. I picked up across the mid-west and the upper south in the last two weeks and I slipped on the west coast.

I surged in the national polls from being down 45-49 to drawing almost even 47-48.

This was the end...



I spent too much time and money in states like TX which I only lost by 2% and yes, I lost CA 1.4%

284 EV - 49.5%
254 EV - 50.5%


Romney only cracked 60% in AL and UT but I did it in MA, CT and RI. I also won VA and TN by a greater margin that I did OR, WA, PA, WI and MI.
21  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you personally know a Muslim IRL? on: February 07, 2016, 07:18:02 am
I'm curious, have you actually met and know any Muslims? If so did it change your perception of Muslims?

Who the hell has never met a Muslim? I even dated a non-practicing.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread on: February 07, 2016, 07:00:35 am
Ah NH, the contrarian internet troll in electorate form.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's Play: You're the Campaign Manager! on: February 07, 2016, 04:19:58 am
Here's how they're spinning it, lol.

Quote
And after the debate stage lights went out, Rubio’s campaign furiously tried to minimize the gaffe. “What voters saw was that Marco was given repeated opportunities to hit Obama and he did,” Rubio’s senior adviser Todd Harris told reporters in the spin room.

In a fundraising email sent to reporters, Rubio’s campaign insisted that Rubio confidently laid out his accomplishments and showed he’s the conservative who can take on Hillary Clinton. “This week the other candidates made one thing clear: They were going to try and take out Marco tonight. They failed,” the email read, also stating in all caps, “AND YES, HE STUCK TO HIS GUNS ON WHY OBAMA HAS BEEN AN AWFUL PRESIDENT!!!”

Wow, what an appalling strategy.

I think it's a good stratgey, frankly. It will dampen the negative effects of the gaffe.
Plus Rubio was good on other issues (talking points).

Only if the media is prepared to spin that for the campaign... so far it doesn't seem like it is.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" gaffe become his "Oops" moment? on: February 07, 2016, 04:16:18 am
What helps Rubio, if anything, is that unlike Perry's 'oops', Rubio's stuff-up needs to be explained and given context.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Sandernistas react once Clinton gets the nomination? on: February 07, 2016, 04:08:03 am
The VAST majority of Sanders backers will realise the bigger picture. A few will likely have a strong negative reaction, but I'd be stunned if it was that many, there will likely be screeches about voter fraud etc...
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 650


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines