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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gut feeling about the Hillary campaign on: May 28, 2016, 02:16:06 am
The fundamentals work for Clinton. And I think things will be fine for us.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: May 27, 2016, 08:05:47 pm
The response to Nova Peris's resignation has been nothing but disgusting. The media in this country and their treatment of Indigenous women is just foul. It's no wonder she is resigning.

While I was never her biggest fan, let alone a fan as how she got the job, the response was vicious.

Additional polling out.

Essential - 51-49 ALP

ReachTEL - 52-48 ALP
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary loses the California primary to Bernie.......... on: May 26, 2016, 10:22:25 pm
It might hurt her ego

A politician has an ego?!

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary loses the California primary to Bernie.......... on: May 26, 2016, 08:16:10 pm
I agree with Eraserhead here, it would be embarrassing. It won't hurt in the long-term, but will in the short-term.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Shirtless Hillarybros distract her at California rally on: May 26, 2016, 07:44:03 pm
This is the second time this entire campaign in which Hillary seemed likable and genuine.

It's frustrating because those moments are closer to what she's actually like according to the people I know who've had anything to do with her personally.

Ugh. But it's a cute moment.

There are a lot of these moments though. There's so many videos her campaign has put out on Facebook of her laughing and joking with children and just being so genuine.

It's not that she doesn't put herself out there. It's that people see what they want to see.

True, but the media and the Hillary haters need to perpetuate the caricature ... this was televised live, so no way to avoid covering it.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary Clinton be indicted? on: May 26, 2016, 07:40:39 pm
It's important to note that Clinton and her aides were ordered by Congress to sware under penalty of perjury that they submit all of their emails, and the IG report found that Clinton had failed to provide a complete list of work-related emails.

There's no way to spin that. An indictment could be coming pretty soon.

Your continued lack of understanding how what the audit said, versus what would in any way be considered a contravention of the law ... is why you're now on ignore.

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Shirtless Hillarybros distract her at California rally on: May 26, 2016, 06:58:48 pm
This is the second time this entire campaign in which Hillary seemed likable and genuine.

It's frustrating because those moments are closer to what she's actually like according to the people I know who've had anything to do with her personally.

Ugh. But it's a cute moment.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10 on: May 26, 2016, 12:25:01 am
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.
not true, bush lost by only 9.8 here vs kerry but only won overall by 3.

California is a lot different now than it was in 2004.

And Bush only lost the Hispanic vote by 9% in 2004.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CA poll discrepancy on: May 26, 2016, 12:23:57 am
I think in reality it's probably +10 or so.

Yeah, I think Clinton wins by 8-12%
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 26, 2016, 12:23:21 am
Yet another strategic fail from Bernie.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA: PPIC: Clinton +2 on: May 26, 2016, 12:22:43 am
No.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 07:40:53 pm
Well, this report is a f'ing disaster.

I know you guys know I love to fret but I usually fret about future outcomes. I often defend Clinton on substantive matters.

First of all, this isn't a case of "everybody else does it." No one else does it. Secretary Powell used a personal e-mail address exclusively yes, but that was installed for him by the Department staff, so it has the imprimatur of bureaucratic approval. Also, the relevant rule in the Department Manual was not promulgated until 2005. The rule clearly distinguishes Clinton's situation from the "300+ other high-level government officials" who use personal e-mail for government business. It states that normal day-to-day operations are to be conducted on an approved electronic platform. Clinton's platform was not approved.

Yes, it is true that Department IT staff, including senior bureaucratic staff, were involved in discussions of her e-mail system and sent e-mails to her private e-mail. And some IT staff, including senior bureaucratic staff, were aware that she used a private e-mail server.

However, this appears to be a matter of bureaucratic staff not having the will to stand up to the Secretary and say, "No, this is against the rules." Complicating this is the fact that there was no precedent of any Secretary using a government e-mail address. So who is going to say, well there's this obscure rule in the Department Manual that prohibits a private e-mail server, to the Secretary? Apparently no one. Granted, many Manual rules (such as those requiring e-mails be printed and filed) were widely flaunted, but the report highlights that the Ambassador to Kenya was disciplined in part over this particular rule.

But worst of all is the part where there's an e-mail from the Executive Secretariat mentioning FOIA requests as a factor in whether to set up a government e-mail addresses for Clinton. This suggests he believed that she was using a private e-mail in part to skirt FOIA requests. There's a reason why the probability of an indictment is up 6 percentage points on PredictIt today.

Needless to say I am furious at the Secretary. This election is about us, not her, and I supported her because I thought she was the best candidate for us. Now I am not so sure. John Edwards proves that sometimes people who others invest a lot in, have a reckless disregard for the hopes of their own supporters.

So congrats, Clinton haters, you win. When/if Clinton is indicted then I would support her delegates to draft Warren, but the Sanders folks would make a strong pitch to take over the party. In any case I am probably out of discussing politics on forums for the cycle. I have a personal life, and this just exacerbates my neurotic tendencies.

Chill.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Lewandowski hints pick will come from Congress on: May 25, 2016, 06:52:49 pm
I don't think a swing-state is necessary. What matters is someone who Clinton can work with, ideally someone she can get along with, and someone who can tap into and soothe the irritated Sandernistas.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 06:45:41 pm
Just goes to show that Hillary Clinton is as crooked as they come.    This shows a lack of judgment and an above the law attitude.   

I think independents will decide in the end that electing the Clinton's is just too much Corruption .

Did you actually read the summary of the audit or fish out the bits you like? This actually isn't about Clinton, it's about the State Department being behind the times and providing sub-par advice to the last three Secretaries of State.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET) on: May 25, 2016, 06:00:07 pm
First batch in; new totals are:

Clinton 357091 53.52%
Sanders 310135 46.48%

So Sanders is already starting to tick upwards.


So... if Sanders wins... it means something?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 05:59:25 pm
They cited Hillary, Powell, Rice, and 300+ other high-level government officials for this.  The report specifically cited “longstanding, systemic weaknesses” with records that go beyond the tenure of any one Secretary of State.

This is the equivalent of getting a write-up at work and then the boss calling a meeting to remind everyone of proper technology use going forward.



So in a month no one will care about this anymore, and this won't change anyone's vote in November. People who will hold this against her aren't voting for her anyways.

This is Atlas.

1. People love to panic or fret
2. The Hillary haters need this, despite hundreds of others, and the department itself and other former SOS being called on for being too slow to adapt its record-keeping measures... it actually means nothing - there's nothing criminal here (people's deeply limited understanding of that is on full display)
3. Atlasites very often hate murkiness and grey-areas. 
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win in June? (D) on: May 25, 2016, 05:47:55 pm
As others predicted, Sanders wins MT, ND, and SD, Clinton takes the rest.

Yup.

VI: Safe Hillary
PR: SafeHillary
ND: Safe Bernie
MT: Safe Bernie
SD: Likely Bernie
NM: Likely Hillary
NJ: Safe Hillary
CA: Likely Hillary
DC: Safe Hillary
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Lewandowski hints pick will come from Congress on: May 25, 2016, 08:25:22 am
Put me on team Warren after seeing her latest speech. She is exactly what Hillary needs.

That choice would make this Sanders supporter very happy!

I've always loved Warren, but I think her place is the Senate and I think she and Hillary knows it.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict: LP% in GE on: May 25, 2016, 08:08:25 am
2.5% max.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11 on: May 24, 2016, 10:56:46 pm
Sanders 57%
Trump 33%

lol, the gap between Hillary and Bernie in terms of general election performances is just getting ridiculous.

Yeah, but we know why and it'll largely be over soon.


New Jersey
Clinton 48%
Trump 37%

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%


2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)

DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%


3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics

1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%

2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%

just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)





This will sound terribly harsh... but no one cares.

Please stop.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Requests Kentucky Recanvassing on: May 24, 2016, 06:19:31 pm
Fundraising must be drying up something wacky to try pull a stunt like this a week later.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22) on: May 23, 2016, 09:36:46 pm
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf


Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%


For THE LOVE OF GOD, stop.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14 on: May 23, 2016, 08:19:47 pm
The Asian and Latino cross-tabs in this and the primary poll are wacky.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 09:00:09 am

I would have said clueless oaf... but Charming contained that and more.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 08:55:56 am
Well, let me say this you people deserve these refugees.

Charming.
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