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October 31, 2014, 08:57:30 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Game Moderation Abolition Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 08:56:45 pm
I disagree... I think context and external factors do mater.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Rasmussen: Shaheen up 7 on: Today at 08:54:01 pm
Brown is the ultimate empty suit.

Thank you! This is my clearest opinion of him... what does he stand for? what has he done?

Shaheen will be fine, not a thumping win, but probably a 52-46...
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CBS/ YouGov House polls on: Today at 08:07:18 pm
23% MoE ... lol

Constituency-level polling is ALWAYS a nightmare and should not be trusted.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-FOX News: FitzGerald surges, cuts Kasich's lead in half on: Today at 07:56:43 pm
Democrats are very desperate, I guess.

You're too young to be taking these things too seriously.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 06:41:02 pm
Lol, Fox puts out non-biased polls right before the election. Classic!

I know you red hats hate Fox, but to their credit, their polling is anything other than "biased."

Again, it's live-agent cell phone and landline poll conducted by both a Republican and Democrat pollster.

Media organizations, including MSNBC, CNN, the local TV stations and Fox are looking to get it right and not engage in partisanship.

Yeah their final polls are good. The ones they released earlier this month were clearly very republican-leaning huge outliers though.

I should have been more specific ... their 'final polls' are held above other respected pollsters.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Quinnipiac: Gardner +7 on: Today at 06:21:06 pm
All recent polls have moved in Republican direction. Maybe we are seeing a wave after all.


No.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 06:18:02 pm
Actually Fox News' polls are usually held above pollsters like SUSA.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: Today at 05:15:19 pm
Happy Halloween everybody.  Today is the beginning of the 2014-2015 Thanksgiving and Christmas Holiday Season.  The words Happy Holidays, Happy Thanksgiving, and Merry Christmas are all valid starting today.  The words Happy Holidays will cease to be valid after Thanksgiving.  In sane America, it is Merry Christmas, not Happy Holidays.

So, with that said... Merry Christmas everybody!!

As a child, I always assumed "Happy Holidays" included New Years and Three Kings Day.

Those are usually called out separately and by name.

 That seems unnecessary...
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old were you when you last went trick-or-treating? on: Today at 05:14:23 pm
I never did it. Not a thing down here, or at least it wasn't when I was a kid.

I'm pretty sure I'm older than you... It wasn't huge in the 90s, but the kids in the street did it in 1992-1994
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: Today at 04:40:36 pm
Goon.

From the sack or not?

I might have some wine... not from a sack.

Because I'm endlessly classy, from a sack. I've got a week off work to coincide with the election and other activities so I bought bulk, a box of white wine and $5 champagne. Like I said, I'm classy.

Awesome lol
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of FreedomHawk on: Today at 04:28:57 pm
Thank God he cut the crap and changed av colours.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: Today at 04:26:50 pm
Goon.

From the sack or not?

I might have some wine... not from a sack.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old were you when you last went trick-or-treating? on: Today at 04:24:52 pm
Last year, when I was 27. I plan to go again tonight with my friends Smiley

Dude?

On topic, I did it once when I was 10
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which time do you prefer? on: Today at 04:16:29 pm
I like maximum darkness
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA- Christopher Newport: Warner starting to suck on: Today at 07:29:59 am
Warner wins 55-43
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Quinnipiac: Crist edges out Scott on: Today at 01:09:42 am
This has way too many third parties/undecideds for my liking.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: Today at 01:06:11 am
Party ID and party registration are different things.

Why do people never learn this ... need us NOT going into 2012 re-dux?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What will happen in the Senate? on: Today at 12:04:03 am
GOP wins, of course.  And I am standing by my earlier prediction -though perhaps slightly more bullish on Virginia (Warner wins by single digits regardless, though):
 
Ultimately they will come out in the end with around 55 seats -maybe even 56.  The GOP will hold on to Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Kansas, and South Dakota (while they are tantalizing, I am not buying those polls showing Democrats/independents in the lead in any of those states), and will pick up West Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina whether on election day, or in the subsequent run-offs, depending on the state.  A lot of these will be close, and down to the wire nail biters, but I think the GOP will ultimately pull it off.  Virginia will get even closer too as election day approaches, and with Sen. Mark Warner needlessly meddling into state politics, he will find himself winning by 5 points -possibly less.

So that's 54 seats right there.  And with Angus King and Joe Manchin either switching parties outright, or simply caucusing with the GOP, that brings their governing total to 56.  



That's f'ing miserable Frodo.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:15 pm
When a tie with a veritable fruit-cake is a good thing... ugh.

But it's still positive, will definitely want more verification before I see it as more than white noise.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Projection on: October 30, 2014, 11:16:39 pm
Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

You've got stop with this stuff. You're too young.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA: PPP: Warner +9 on: October 30, 2014, 10:46:50 pm
There's no excitement = low turnout = Dem support drops
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Final Marquette poll out today! on: October 30, 2014, 10:32:37 pm
Alright... seriously... does anyone actually believe that Walker is up by that much? Ahead, sure... but by 7%?

Yes.  I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being by more than 7-points when it's all over.

Love me some Tony Abbott!  Can we trade you Obama for him?  We'll throw in Biden & Hillary for Julie Bishop! 

Get help.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Game Moderation Abolition Amendment (Debating) on: October 30, 2014, 09:39:46 pm
I agree that the GM should get out of the business of producing economic statistics, cost analyses, etc. But, I do think we need some sort of storyteller to generate major events for us to discuss. Should we just assume that everything that happens IRL also happens in Atlasia?

This is a frustration for me. I mean, there might be very overwhelming national/international stories (Ebola... hello) but because the GM doesn't mention it, it doesn't exist.

On the other side, I do think we need someone to give some sort of economic grounding in what happens here.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The Senate Fair Participation Act (Debating) on: October 30, 2014, 09:27:33 pm
Competitiveness, however, is not a natural state. It tends to be driven a few external factors that do ebb and flow in Atlasia.

So I'm wary of putting the Senate the mercy that when a term ends, the Senate doesn't lose someone experienced and active, only to be replaced by someone who might be a down-grade.

I'm not dismissing this as an idea, but I'm definitely very wary of this particular step to address problems.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Kansas City or San Francisco? on: October 30, 2014, 09:16:49 pm
SF by a... mile.
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