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January 30, 2015, 04:37:54 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 08:44:58 am
So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...



Polnut you've made some awful predictions in the past as have most of us so give him a break!

Christ man, LET IT GO!!

It it's a tongue-in-cheek (calm down, it's not sexual) response to Talley always being deliberately pessimistic. 
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public non binding consultations Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 08:39:39 am
Why are you guys trying to legislate for what's currently accomplished by someone simply making a poll?
Poll = 20/30 voters.
Consultation = more than 30 voters.

Respectfully - I genuinely don't see the point of this mechanism.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 07:47:55 am
So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 07:40:27 am
Preliminary prediction

TPP
LNP: 51.1%
ALP: 48.9%

Seats
LNP: 45
ALP: 38
Crossbench: 6

But a hung parliament is a very, very real possibility.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 07:29:09 am
Aaaand Galaxy

52-48 TPP (based on 2012) 

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 37%
GRN: 8%

Preferred Premier
Newman: 44%
Palaszczuk: 45%


Ashgrove

TPP
Newman: 45%
Jones: 55%

Primaries
Newman: 42%
Jones: 48%
GRN: 8%
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 06:34:23 am
Newspoll is out...

Also 52-48 (also based on 2012 preferences)

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 37%
GRN: 7%

Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction (net)
Newman: -23
Palaszczuk: -2

Better Premier
Newman: 43%
Palaszczuk: 42%
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: Today at 03:52:54 am
First poll is out and it's 52-48 LNP... from ReachTEL

But if you dig a little deeper, those are numbers based on 2012 preference flows (it should be noted that the GRN -> ALP rate was under 60% and virtually no one was directing preferences to the ALP...) they're being very generous to the LNP and based on primaries of 41.5-37.2-7.5 (GRN) ... that number would be closer to 50-50 maybe 51-49 at worst.

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 07:32:18 pm
Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszcuzk made a disastrous gaffe yesterday. When asked the GST rate, she was unable to recall its rate (10%). A very strong tool for the LNP to use against Labor in the final dash.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-election-preview-gaffe-eases-pressure-on-newman-20150129-1311wv.html

Oh calm down... it was hardly a disastrous gaffe. She slipped up, it was a rapid-fire quiz on a radio station. It wasn't an election-changer. although it might hurt them with some flighty undecideds. Shorten's response was great "well, she doesn't represent a party that want to put the GST on household essentials". But I would be saying the same if Newman had said it, this has been the only slip-up in a pretty decent campaign.

Trust me once the polling starts to come out this evening, this story will die.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public non binding consultations Amendment (Debating) on: January 29, 2015, 06:50:43 pm
So... best case scenario, there's a process which doesn't mean anything. Worst case scenario it's a total waste of time?
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Academy Awards Discussion on: January 29, 2015, 06:48:14 pm
The last film to miss BP after winning SAG ensemble and PGA was Little Miss Sunshine in 2006. The issue to consider is that unlike Little Miss Sunshine, Birdman is the co-leader when it comes to nominations and has support from across all branches of the Academy. The only fly in the ointment, and it's a big fly, is that Birdman missed an editing nomination. The last film to win BP without an editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980. Boyhood still in front.

Redmayne winning SAG was a big-fricking-deal... this is generally an American-centric group and has a tendency to reward veterans and comebacks. Up until this point, I would think Redmayne was just behind Keaton... but IF Birdman is strong enough across AMPAS, then I wouldn't give Redmayne a huge lead, but he's definitely got his nose in front, particularly, if he wins BAFTA next weekend. Although it should be noted that BAFTA went ga-ga for TOE... so..
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Senator Polnut on: January 29, 2015, 06:24:15 pm

STATEMENT


Senate matters and Endorsements

I want to start on the positive. After many iterations and much debate, I am thrilled to see the Bill I presented to increase support for carers passed and signed by the President. I am also pleased to see universal support for the Bill to institute a Senate committee to undertake a full investigation of the effectiveness and efficiency of the Atlasian prison system.

The next is that the Budget remains unresolved. I understand the pressures on the GM to get this done, but the fundamental issue is that this must be passed. The resolution to allow the Government to operate is not an excuse to avoid doing this in a timely manner. This needs to be done and we also cannot be engaged in negotiations about broader tax reform. I understand the President's desire on this, but I believe the current version not only goes as far I think we can go, it also wastes valuable time.

So to make clear, I believe there are sufficient numbers to pass the Budget Bill as it stands, I believe we should pass it, I believe the President should sign it. If he wants to introduce tax reform in the next month, I invite him to, but I ask him not to attach that as a requirement to get his signature on this current Bill.

Finally, I want to touch on the issues that emerged over the past few days. I believe that Napoleon has played the entire country for idiots. If there is anyone who has knowingly aided his continued presence, then they need to seriously consider their position. But that's all I'm going to say on the matter.

Onto election matters. I have been asked privately about who I will be supporting in a number of races across the country. The one I will be commenting on this evening will be the Presidency. I will be supporting my friend and my colleague Senator Bore. I believe he has the right ideas, the right skills and I believe the right temperament to be President. I also have no doubts whatsoever about his commitment to Atlasia or his activity levels. I believe he will be an active and thoughtful President.

 
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Policy Report Act (Debating) on: January 29, 2015, 06:01:40 pm
I won't support it as it stands, but clearly this will pass.

What would you suggest to change?

Wait... I'm getting confused here, do we or do we not have the VP still involved here?
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: ARREST TMTHFORU94 on: January 29, 2015, 05:59:19 pm
I swear to God Tmth...
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 04:27:23 am
Also we should be expecting state-wide polls from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy in the next 36 hours.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: January 29, 2015, 03:19:06 am
Colleen McCullough has died Sad

Obviously, R.I.P. but I was never a fan.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 02:14:56 am
It's not the best option for a state-wide poll two days out from the results coming in... it's a three-week rolling average and a very small sample size... but considering how bereft we've been for state-wide polling, will take it with a MASSIVE grain of salt.

Essential

Primary votes
LNP: 39%
ALP: 38%
GRN: 7%
PUP: 5%

TPP
LNP: 50%
ALP: 50%

Here's the link... but if there's anything interesting in this poll it's that while the ALP isn't favoured in areas outside of their core... the question on whether they'd be better off with either party in Government, the answer isn't good for the LNP - only 33% say they'd be better off with the LNP in power, the same as the ALP and 25% say it will make no difference.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Post the map of an election between the two preceding posters on: January 29, 2015, 12:25:43 am
This election sees a left-leaning Democrat face off against the more Libertarian Republican.  The Democrats were near victory, but the leftism of the Democratic candidate swung Ohio Republican, while Washington, very closely went for the Republican.

Rep. Goldwater (R-WA) 284 EV - 51.1%
Sen. Polnut (D-CA) 254 EV - 48.9%


Skip... but, I'm a leftist now?
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How to Decide if a Poster is HP on: January 29, 2015, 12:24:09 am
If anything... being nice is to often a pass for people with horrible ideas.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 10:46:26 pm
Considering Newman's rate of vote exhaustion in 2012... if he's not ahead of Jones on primaries, he's done.

I'm going to make a final prediction tomorrow night - but at the moment I have the LNP below 50 seats.
20  General Politics / Economics / Re: Bond yields are plunging. on: January 28, 2015, 08:52:01 pm
The 10 year reached 1.72 today.

ECRI WLI Weekly Leading Index is dropping

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php

If jmfcst were still here, I wonder if he would be calling recession?

Is it time yet to kill the women and children?
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Amendment to the Senate Rules (Voting on Amendment) on: January 28, 2015, 08:51:10 pm
NAY
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 08:16:20 pm
Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.

Lol, you didn't see how he looked. He's not that good an actor.

EDIT: Some late breaking news. Newman was meant to be doing a regional swing today and part of tomorrow... he's now high-tailing it back to Brisbane, immediately.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 07:58:07 pm
Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 28, 2015, 07:51:27 pm
And you don't have to be an Obama supporter to have a non-negative outlook of his speech. I'd place myself in the somewhat positive category.

But what about BENGHAZI??!!
Never mentioned it in his speech, so I don't take it into account here.

Oh thank God.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Improving Support for Carers Bill 2014 (Passed) on: January 28, 2015, 06:06:44 pm
While not ideal, I'm thrilled to see this now enacted.
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