Maybe if the GOP hadn't been some kind self-perpetuating own-goal scoring machine the most common searches wouldn't be so embarrassing for them...

My God Naso, you're really a walking charicature aren't you?

Something struck me this afternoon - there's one very big reason why IF something were to happen it would happen on the final sitting day - is to prevent the Coalition the opportunity to move a no-confidence motion that the Independents could well support and trigger an election.

It's really hard to nail down one single reason ... but the Government was weakening under Rudd by kind if resigning its mandate on climate change, then you had the coup which will have it's 3rd anniversary on Sunday (which was horribly managed externally) and the killer, Gillard seems to have an innate ability to say/do the wrong thing...

When she was Deputy PM she was INCREDIBLY popular and even after she got the job in less than brilliant circumstances she threw away a 10% lead to only win the TPP vote by a hair... Rudd has his role in that campaign but she's never really recovered from the 'real Julia' speech, the result of which left people saying 'then who the hell were you before?!' - then the issue over promising to not bring in a carbon tax, then doing it. I think her reasonings for changing course made sense to me, but it basically allowed this tide of mistrust and unease about her spill over. She had a moment of respite late last year but that's kind of it.

That's a long-winded way of saying, there's a set of systemic problems in the party, but considering the party is pursuing difficult but not unpopular policies (overall) - the issue is the Prime Minister and her political judgement.

I believe it, people are morons.

Yup

I'm seeing a lot of the same denialism we saw from the GOP - the polls are skewed, manipulated by media owners to get the result they want...

I even saw people use the word 'sheeple' - seriously.

As opposed to working out why a Government delivering generally well-received policies (as I keep saying the carbon price is at even-money and more popular than the ALP) are losing to an opposition with no policies and losing a popularity contest to Tony Abbott...

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Nielsen poll - still leaking tweets...

TPP
ALP: 43% (-3)
Coalition: 57% (+3)

Primary
ALP: 29% (-3)
Coalition: 47% (+3)

With Rudd as leader

TPP
ALP: 50%
Coalition: 50%

Primary
ALP: 40%
Coalition: 42%

I know people dislike Gillard, but I don't buy Rudd increasing the primary vote by 11%!

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1. Xahar
2. Seatown
3. drj101

Aye

I know it's random and obtuse... but watch tomorrow.

Piers has always been a wonderful combination of Conservative parrot and creepy cheerleader

I think I'm innately extroverted... but I'm more than happy to be alone for hours on end. BUT, I do get a little nuts if I'm on my own for too long (what defines 'too long' changes with my mood).

I've got a 7am flight to New Zealand next Saturday morning... missing an early morning flight due to sleeping-in is one of my nightmares. As in, I've had countless nightmares where that's happened... I doubt I'll be able to sleep Friday night

Not much. I tend to get maybe 5-6 hours, less if I drink, more if I am dead tired. I have horrible nighttime anxiety, and whenever I get in bed, I tend to think about all the things I need to do and I haven't done, and it keeps me up.

I have also been absuing melatonin for years now, and I have to sleep with a noise machine or I stay awake even longer.

This is a problem that has plagued me since I was a little kid. I would stay up all night and keep my parents up with me. During their divorce, I would go downstairs and watch boxing with my dad on the couch, since my mom kicked him out of their bedroom, and stay up all night then too.

In short, this boy isn't much of a sleeper.

I get weird unexplained bursts of adrenaline when I'm trying to sleep. I'll be drifting off... then BANG! Then the cycle kicks in... you're awake but then being anxious about not being able to get up just guarantees you aren't sleeping any time soon...

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

Well this seat really represents the one and only possibility of a gain for Labor-although I have my doubts especially after polls have shown hefty swings against them in and around Melbourne. I don't see Liberal voters preferencing Labor over Bandt.

Melbourne comes down entirely to where the Lib preferences go...

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

Very true, how far behind was Keating anyway?

Keating was this far back about 8 months out... I think it was about 53-46...

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

The Nielsen Poll out tomorrow will 'apparently' be in line with current polling conventions... looks like the 58-42 Newspoll isn't alone.

It was the right that led to her elevation - Rudd's support base is in the left... oddly.

He was campaigning with Rudd in W.Sydney yesterday

As a friend who works for a Minister (Gillard-backer) said last night "it's really fluid"  - the fundamentals might not be shifting but the dynamics definitely are (they're just not settling) and yes, the polling can get worse.

I think there's a lot of messaging going on through the media... no one is saying 'it' but it comes down to dynamics. Early issuing of the writs would be a total panic move and make things much worse

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/civil-war-pm-and-opponents-braced-to-fight-20130614-2o9oq.html

If the AWU is shaky... eh, this is going to be an ugly couple of weeks... The AWU is very well controlled, this is probably one if the worst signs for the PM.

[AT-LARGE SENATE (1 vacancy to fill)]

AT-LARGE SENATE (1 vacancy to fill)

[1] Gass3268 of Wisconsin
^{Labor Party}

[3] Jerryarkansas of Arkansas
^{Federalist Party}

[2] Superique of Nevada
^{Liberal Party}

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[  ] None of the above