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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WikiLeaks published DNC emails on: Today at 08:57:41 am
Indeed, we already knew the DNC was crooked as hell, nevermind the obvious rules that keep out the ones not in the club.

No, not crooked. But a preference for someone who's actually a Democrat and has a lifetime of work for the party behind them. Gee... what a racket.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dems: Do you wish Hillary had decided not to run? on: Today at 08:45:04 am
No.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WikiLeaks published DNC emails on: Today at 08:44:39 am
There's nothing that's surprising.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: Today at 02:21:43 am
Good choice.

She badly needed someone like Kaine to drag her over the finish line.

With the help of Kaine, Sanders, Biden and Obama she might be able to do so, in a race that she should actually win by 10%.

So it has nothing to do with her? Jesus you're blinkered.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato updates Virginia rating post-Kaine on: Today at 02:14:53 am
Clinton/Kaine should win VA, yeah.

Everything else would be a huge upset, much like Gore losing TN in 2000.

But winning VA should be easier than Gore winning TN.

Yes, TN was turning away from the Dems by 2000, VA isn't.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL: Kirk Internal shows Clinton up big on: July 22, 2016, 10:08:17 pm
Go. Away.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Alabama News-5/Strategy Poll July 19: Trump +24 on: July 22, 2016, 09:13:39 pm
I wasn't sure, but now I'm fairly certain this will swing to Trump.  This should also be a wake-up call to anyone who thinks he will lag Romney's numbers in places like AR/TN/LA/KY.  Hard to square with the most recent MS polls, though...

There's a divide between AL and MS. Romney won AL by 22 and MS by 11.5%. I expect that dynamic to be repeated.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine vs. Pence VP debate discussion thread on: July 22, 2016, 09:06:10 pm
Of course I'll watch it.

This whining "OMG it'll be so boring!!" - this isn't a reality show.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: July 22, 2016, 08:54:06 pm
Free trade being, in general, a good thing does not mean that every given free trade agreement is automatically good or that all people of good will are somehow morally bound to support all of them, and the fact that not every free trade agreement is automatically good and all people of good will are not somehow morally bound to support all of them does not mean that free trade is not, in general, a good thing. I'm amazed that this is apparently such an unpopular position here.

Exactly. I like trade in general. I don't think protectionism is good economic policy. But the dispute resolution provisions in the TPP make me very uneasy with it.

Considering the US got one of the better deals out of the TPP...
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Clinton/Kaine ticket? on: July 22, 2016, 08:21:07 pm
Clinton chose the person she sees as the best governing partner. She's not going to pick someone she doesn't click as well with to suck up to Bernie voters. This isn't about them any more.

His progressive credentials are very clear, frankly his position on abortion is really no different to Biden's.

 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: July 22, 2016, 07:52:22 pm
I think the most sensible choice.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WikiLeaks Releases 19,252 DNC Emails on: July 22, 2016, 10:34:32 am
God, are they still a thing?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 10:32:57 am
I think it has been a strategy to create more comfort with Kaine, rather than to deliberately get people's hopes up.

In the end, this is Hillary's call - I'd much rather she pick the person she's comfortable with over the person who does x or y or appeals to s or g.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump on CNN: Bashes Ted and Heidi Cruz; Doubles down on JFK conspiracy on: July 22, 2016, 10:27:44 am
But I thought Trump saw the speech? As expected, when he's off the hook he regresses.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 10:26:10 am
Would Hillary's campaign really signal possible Booker, Perez in last week and then suddenly say "lol jk it's...Kaine"?

I find that such an amateurish thing to do...possibly irritating a very loosely committed coalition of supporters finally finding their way to Hillary's team (i.e. millennials, Sanders voters, etc)

It's strategy. I really don't care about their delicate feelings right now.

Harsh, but it's 1:25am and I'm tired.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: July 22, 2016, 10:00:51 am
Kaine well over 80 now to be the VP nominee.

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 28.2
Sanders 0.6
Johnson 0.3

Dem presidential nominee
Clinton 99.0
Sanders 1.0

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6


Interesting that the bettors have Clinton at 70% after the convention and 69% before it

I would caution that this RNC is something on which elite opinion could really diverge from the general public's impression.  Think about the plagiarism issue.  There's probably ~25% of Americans for whom this is an absolute deal breaker but the other 75% who have never had exposure to professional/academic writing could probably care less.

People might not be familiar with academic practice - but they know what ripping off what someone else has done and passing it off as your own looks like.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 22, 2016, 09:57:26 am
Also - since Trump is lying about crime stats... apparently now those who dare present actual evidence that counters Trump's fear-mongering are not to be trusted.

It's outright insanity - it's a pity this lot didn't get into Scientology, they'd be a much smaller risk to the country and the world.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Effectiveness of Ivanka Trump's speech? on: July 22, 2016, 09:54:46 am
If it had been followed up by a good, positive or genuinely inclusive speech it might have been useful. Otherwise it's just a weird interlude.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Ted Cruz vote for in November? on: July 22, 2016, 12:48:25 am
Ted Cru will write in Ted Cruz
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Instant Poll of Speech Watchers on: July 22, 2016, 12:26:40 am
Call me chicken little but....president trump.

Chill. Out. Yikes.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP Ohio poll predictions and suggestions on: July 22, 2016, 12:10:24 am
I'll go ahead and say Trump+2.

This.  If Trump can't lead in OH the weekend after the RNC, he's hopeless.

Pretty much.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Instant Poll of Speech Watchers on: July 21, 2016, 11:58:36 pm
It was undecided Republicans, and even then 25% didn't view the speech favorably. That seems to be around the same level of non-support he is getting from Republicans in most polls.

No. It was speechwatchers of all political stripes.  Of course, for the RNC, this is going to skew Republican.  You'll have a pro-Democrat sample for the DNC. 

Full results:
CNN/ORC Poll of Trump Speech Watchers

Overall Reaction to Trump's Speech
Very Positive 57%
Somewhat Positive 18%
Negative Effect 24%

In what direction will the policies proposed by Trump move the country?
Right Direction 73%  (was 60% pre-speech)
Wrong Direction 24%

How did Trump's speech affect your vote?
More Likely 56%
Less Likely 10%
Not Much Effect 32%

Source:  CNN on TV.  No link yet, best I can tell.

That's a serious f***ing skew.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 21, 2016, 11:55:40 pm
CNN/ORC Poll of Trump Speech Watchers

Overall Reaction to Trump's Speech
Very Positive 57%
Somewhat Positive 18%
Negative Effect 24%

In what direction will the policies proposed by Trump move the country?
Right Direction 73%  (was 60% pre-speech)
Wrong Direction 24%

How did Trump's speech affect your vote?
More Likely 56%
Less Likely 10%
Not Much Effect 32%

Source:  CNN on TV.  No link yet, best I can tell.

So clearly a GOP crowd. Next.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Instant Poll of Speech Watchers on: July 21, 2016, 11:51:00 pm
Hmmm... does this always happen with convention speeches, or is this an anomalous level of support?

Chill. These are a combination of Republicans and Indies. I wouldn't get too excited.

Plus any crowd that 60% of them with a view that Trump would be a good thing for the country to begin with isn't exactly a difficult bunch to win over.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Male escorts in Cleveland have been making bank this week on: July 21, 2016, 11:50:16 pm
Um... duh?
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