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December 05, 2016, 09:37:04 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:46:21 pm
IN looks like it might finish close to 60% statewide after all is counted. I only had it at 50%+ in my prediction.

KY will definitely finish above 60% though.

Bit early for that sparky.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:01:54 pm
Again... remembering that early exits are garbage.

K?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 07:23:26 am
I do not need results. I am panicking already.

How is that productive? Serious question.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 07:13:42 am
My dad was number #24 at our precinct. A lot of white guys with beard and big trucks at our precinct.

Is it a beat for truckers?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 06:47:15 am
CNN with another look at a massive Raleigh (NC) line, which was about 100% white too.

Now Parma, OH. I cannot spot any Black or Latino voter in that precinct either ...

Are you going to be on the lookout for Blaxicasians all day?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 06:19:09 am
CNN just showed about a half mile long line in front of a VA precinct at 6am.

(And the people in line were about 98% white ...)

Oh NOES!
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Midnight towns (NH) **results thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:58:02 am
Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

Bored?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 04:40:10 am
Something to think about:

I noticed that one person voted by absentee in Dixville Notch.

If just one person voted absentee and it was counted there at midnight at the precinct and not at the district or state level, how is the secrecy of vote guaranteed for that person ? The vote counters will know who that person is and how that person voted, no ?

I think it's likely in a place that small, that the how people vote is probably well known.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 04:23:42 am
I really really hate this project. And yes, I will be following it closely like everyone else.

I will not be.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 03:00:22 am
Alright.. VA was called too close to call in both 2008 and 2012... Obama won by 7 and 4. So I think it's quite likely that VA is considered too close to call.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 02:41:07 am
Anything positive for Trump at all.

Well, you are setting yourself up.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 01:52:00 am
This seems like something that could backfire easily lol

I haven't agreed with you ... at all, but I think this thing is going to trigger multiple coronaries and nervous breakdowns.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lady Gaga firing up the crowd right now in North Carolina with Hillary on: November 08, 2016, 01:11:00 am
I was deeply bearish about Clinton's chances in this election, especially for NC, but this lame stunt seals it: Clinton is done.



What? lol

I've never found these sorts of theatrical acts all that effective at turning out the vote, or in increasing voter enthusiasm. It's all pretty damned pathetic actually.

So, because you find it unhelpful/distasteful ... that applies to everyone else. Comethefon
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 01:06:51 am
This tool is an abomination
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lady Gaga firing up the crowd right now in North Carolina with Hillary on: November 08, 2016, 01:05:43 am
I was deeply bearish about Clinton's chances in this election, especially for NC, but this lame stunt seals it: Clinton is done.



What is wrong with you?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Midnight towns (NH) **results thread** on: November 08, 2016, 12:31:58 am
I really hope no one is actually serious about this meaning anything... right?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 07, 2016, 10:31:42 pm
Doesn't matter - people will still s*** themselves over early VA returns, despite knowing the count is always good for the GOPher to start.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you feel if it ended up like this? on: November 07, 2016, 07:46:27 pm
http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GmPZ

This is what my gut thinks will happen tomorrow night....Polls are close in PA but I feel good about Florida.

This makes NO sense.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would your emotions be if this was the map tomorrow. Very possible result on: November 07, 2016, 07:18:16 pm
a) it's not VERY possible

b) No.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 07:08:14 pm
https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/795778298165035008

David Flaherty
‏@MagellanStrat
Magellan Colorado Ballots Returned Report 4pm update http://buff.ly/2fxBpjJ  Rep lead over Dems in ballots returned now 15,289 #copolitics

That's 35.0% Republican, 34.3% Democrat and 29.2% unaffiliated.

CO still looking good Smiley
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 07, 2016, 07:07:51 pm
News.com.au predicts a Trump win:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/why-trump-could-really-win-this/news-story/8e4bd4e6f5a65434724702ed8c8f221f

"one of the most respected pollsters in the United States, Nate Silver"

Haha. Told you top of Google meant something.

Except that he's not a pollster

Stop posting links to any Australian journalists... this season has shown they know/understand f*** all.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally on: November 07, 2016, 07:19:44 am
Obama over-performed his polling average by a decent amount, given the same factors (clearly from the national polling we've seen) Latino under-polling and LV screens remain a problem for pollsters. I'm saying over, and I feel oddly confident about that.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 07, 2016, 07:06:20 am
Good, Trump at 43...
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +3/+3 on: November 07, 2016, 07:03:52 am
Clinton +37 overall with non-whites...and selzer is supposed to be the gold standard?

They are for Iowa. I don't think they have a long track record of national polling.

I meant her methodology in general...these non white totals are absurd.

She uses voter file in Iowa/Florida. That's why they are good
IDK, if they use it nationally. And if there is national voter file.



But f**k it. I hoped that Trump will close the gap in final national polls. C+3 is too bad for him Sad

But good for mankind.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: After review of e-mails FBI doesn't change decision on Hillary on: November 07, 2016, 06:59:13 am
The overall effect of all the Comey shenanigans have still been very harmful to Clinton.

1) The dominating story for the last week and a half of the election was e-mails, which reinforce the (stupid) narrative that Clinton is currupt.

2) The focus on e-mails and subsequent tightening of polls allowed for Donald Trump to lay low. Does anyone believe that Donald Trump would not have thrown huge tantrums had Clinton spent this last week still leading decisively in every important swing state?

Clinton was dropping, somewhat inexplicably, in the week of the Friday Comey revelations, much like Obama did in 2012. Comey did two things, I believe. 1. It prolonged a slide that was already in progress. 2. (and probably more damaging) It hurt the personal ratings that she recovered during the DNC, then the debates, which probably had a lingering effect with the remaining undecideds.

So long story short, I don't think the specific Comeygate nonsense hurt her TERRIBLY, but it did have an impact.
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