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July 30, 2015, 08:05:18 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the debate next week will turn out? on: Today at 08:57:42 am
The GOP debates are about who can be the loudest and most belligerent. Come on down Trump and Christie.

2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Improve Our Wiki Act of 2015 (Debating) on: Today at 08:25:49 am
Full support
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Fireworks Freedom Act of 2015 (Debating) on: Today at 08:12:33 am
On the topic. No, I won't support this Bill at all. Access to fireworks should be tightly controlled and regulated.

I'm sure people like to make things go boom, but they're dangerous and should be handled with care and training, not the least of which the well-known impact on domestic animals.
You can present an Admendment if you want.

The Bill wouldn't exist in that case.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 - a bad year for election nerds on: Today at 08:09:43 am
Don't forget the all encompassing ACT election in October Tongue
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Fireworks Freedom Act of 2015 (Debating) on: Today at 07:34:39 am
On the topic. No, I won't support this Bill at all. Access to fireworks should be tightly controlled and regulated.

I'm sure people like to make things go boom, but they're dangerous and should be handled with care and training, not the least of which the well-known impact on domestic animals.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 29, 2015, 06:47:41 pm
Basically: see above to prove my point.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 29, 2015, 08:52:09 am
There's an awful lot above that I don't see her as having to have a long hard look at herself. Maybe some people need to look at themselves.

It's pretty simple, she's the most politically active First Lady since Eleanor Roosevelt - making yourself a political figure NOT a traditional spouse like Michelle Obama, comes with risks. She does have a knack to have people believe the worst about her. That's obviously a problem, she's not a natural wholesale politician like Bill. She's essentially a technocrat.

A lot of these critisicms don't seem to be based on anything other than groupthink. Now, she might be the hosebeast so many think she is, but I don't know her. But saying she'd never have been where she is without her husband? Sure his name carries weight but who the hell actually knows?

I sound like bloody  dudeabides but there it is...
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Another new Speaker on: July 29, 2015, 08:39:08 am
At this point Senator Cris has 6 votes
So I'm officially elected?

Well you have a clear majority and the voting period has now expired, so ...

With 6 votes cast, I declare Senator Cris unanimously elected.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: July 29, 2015, 07:30:09 am
Bronnie, seemingly, is going the full Hitler in the bunker. She's refuting the public statements of Julie Bishop and claiming Abbott has backed her. I didn't think this could get better, but it might be.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Another new Speaker on: July 29, 2015, 06:00:37 am
At this point Senator Cris has 6 votes
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Another new Speaker on: July 28, 2015, 06:22:46 pm
Cris
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Another new Speaker - vote underway on: July 28, 2015, 08:18:03 am
While it's by near acclamation - we should still hold a vote.

Speaker

[ ] Senator Cris
[ ] Write in:

24 hours from the my posting or until a majority is reached.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 28, 2015, 08:06:39 am
Here's an idea pbrower2a,  Republicans will remind how lousy a President Barack Obama is, particularly at the Republican convention,  and pound on this theme right through election day. Trust me! There is a lot of fodder on which to work on. Every statement, every policy, every statement and every promise Obama has made will be scrutinized and examined. All our party has to say, is "Had enough? ...then help is on the way", Hillary is now in a place where Republicans are very comfortable,  no bragging rights as far as Secretary of State goes. Yep plenty of negatives about Obama-Hillary, so go on pound on George W. Bush, but in case you forgot, what was good in 2008, ain't relevant in the 2016 cycle. Blaming Dubya only works for a limited period, think the well is empty. But Obama is a perfect target, he's the incumbent, not Dubya LOL😀😀

Very well said my friend.

When Mitt Romney made his "47%" gaffe, he did so by exaggerating numbers.

The vast majority of people on public assistance are hard working people who are victims of a bad economy. They don't want to rely on government, but they are forced to.

That being said, there are always going to be those who want to rely on government. The Democrats offer free cell phones, food stamps, and free health care via medicaid. So, Romney was not wrong when he said some will vote Democrat no matter what.

However, for the vast majority of Americans, these are tough economic times. But I refuse to believe that the vast majority of those who are poor want to remain poor, I refuse to believe the vast majority on food stamps want to be on food stamps, and I know people want rising incomes again.

The choice in this election will be clear. If you believe that government regulation of the economy is a good thing, that we should be willing to accept record poverty and food stamp use, if you believe that we shouldn't grow at more than 2%, if you believe that increasing our national debt by $8 trillion in 6 years and 7 months is acceptable, if you believe small businesses should not open or expand, and if you believe in record low labor participation, then Hillary Clinton would love to have your vote.

But, if you think we can grow at 4% with the right policies and that we should work to reform our entitlement programs and tax code to reduce our national debt, than the Republican candidate - so long as it's not Donald Trump - is how you should vote.

 

That wasn't a "gaffe" by Romney; it was an unintended window into his soul. 

Romney's elitist contempt for the less fortunate came through loud and clear, and that's why, in the end, he lost an election he should have won. 

Mitt Romney has donated large sums of money to charity, though he never bragged about it because he's a good man.

You seem to dislike competent and smart people.

If I recall the vast proportion of Romney's charitable giving was to his Church.

Also, the fact that you repeat generalizations.... wait, how old are you?
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: July 27, 2015, 07:57:54 pm
So, all in all a successful conference.  The asylum debate was never going to be easy, but it was done in a dignified manner by both sides and the result seems to be accepted by most.  Shorten, I believe, handled himself very well throughout all of this and though I doubt his polling will take much relief, he's certainly in a stronger position than at the end of the last parliamentary sitting week.

I think Shorten handled himself quite well. I think ALP leaders*** will dissipate. They knew Abbott wanted desperately to run an anti-immigration/national security early election... with Shorten given the right to neutralise one the biggest contrasts on a very potent issue in the election-deciding demographics, it certainly undermines Abbott's strategy.

The Libs wanted and needed a bloody National Conference. They didn't get it.

The contrasts with the Government on renewables, real tax reform and marriage equality are not something, I'd think Abbott would want to run an election on.

The other thing is, I still think the Libs want an election earlier, rather than later.

a) the Royal Commission report is due before Christmas, but no one knows what's going to be in it. It cost $80m... they'd want to be damn sure they've got enough to hurt Shorten with, otherwise it risks being attacked by Labor as a politically-driven waste of taxpayer's money. They'd rather run with the threat of the report, than run on it.

b) Mid-Year economic outlook (MYEFO) will also be in December and will raise some nasty financial outcomes, namely, while the value of the dollar has dropped, the value of iron-ore has also dropped. So likely greater deterioration in the Budget since May. I doubt they'd want that.

Fundamentally, I don't think they want to go to another Budget only a few months out from an election.   
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Paul polling worse nationally than his father was at this point in 2011 on: July 27, 2015, 07:15:35 pm
His announcement was too early, and he made questionable decisions. Plus, Trump happened.

Basically, Rand is trying to have it both ways and he's discovered it's a great way to get hit by traffic going in both directions.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 27, 2015, 07:06:30 pm
Donald Trump will mop the floor with Jeb only amongst his half literate base, everyone else will be laughing at Donald Dump.

Dude, youíve been taking a Donald Dump sized sh**t in your pants every day for the past month.  Pretending you aren't being beaten isn't going to magically make Trumpís rhetoric less damaging and effective.  Before you go on with blah blah blah he supported socialized medicine blah blah abortion stop for a second and realize none of that matters; the last guy who got the nomination created the prototype for Obamacare for Christ sake.  What matters most in a presidential primary is perceived strength and rhetoric.  As long as Donald keeps steamrolling over this entire field and not apologizing for anything no one is going to look stronger and no one can match his rhetorical skills.  Did you see him completely emasculate Scott Walker in Iowa the other day?  Even if he eventually flames out the damage Trump will do to Bush and his brand at these debates will be massive. 

First of all, Donald Trump is not going to be the debate winner, I can tell you that. When it comes to economics and foreign policy, he knows nothing. He's a terrible public speaker and he doesn't know how to answer questions.

Secondly, my fear is actually not Donald Trump's ability to win the primaries. Be it Herman Cain in 2012, Fred Thompson in 2008, Elizabeth Dole in 2000, or Phil Gramm in 1996, history shows us that challengers to the establishment favorite lose. My fear is that Donald Trump is lowering the level of dialogue in our country and making Republicans look dumb. He is exploiting people who are scared, angry, and many who aren't very smart. Of course, the Donald isn't very smart either so I doubt it's intentional.

Funny, Donald Trump is doing favors for some of the others running. He makes Jeb Bush look even more electable than he already is, Rick Perry look presidential, Lindsey Graham look like a strong leader, and he's making Scott Walker look like the common sense conservative in the race. Sorry my friend, the guy is a socialist, there is no way around it.

I've said this recently - look at the 2012 Debates. What "won" them wasn't the person who knew their stuff, it was the person who could land the zingers and act like the biggest a**hole. Considering the GOP seems like to belligerence... Trump is a master at it.

In my mind, one of the reasons why Trump is a legitimate threat and why the GOP should be worried, is to me, he's basically Newt Gingrich but gaffe-proof, with a bigger ego and with Independent wealth.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Paul polling worse nationally than his father was at this point in 2011 on: July 27, 2015, 06:48:20 pm
Trump blowing up has killed Paul's campaign.  Before Trump entered the race Rand was the guy everyone was attacking and that was good for him in a lot of ways; it made him look strong, like he's taking on the establishment, etc.  Now that Donald has sucked up all the oxygen, Rand can be ignored, and it's much more difficult to look like an outsider as a sitting Senator when you're standing next to Trump.

Trump's base doesn't really cross over with Paul's base which is libertarian+economic conservatives/social moderates?(AKA: Establishment/Moderate republicans).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Rand went from 9-10% to 5%. Which seems to have more correlation with Scott Walker entering the race. With that establishment GOP support going towards Walker.

OR perhaps its just that the GOP primary being really interesting is pushing more interest. And Rand's base which is basically Ron Paul's base in 2008/2012. Was not going to hold up much against potentially higher GOP turnout.

Rand was dead long before Trump.

He bombed his announcement and flopped with his supporters by pandering to the RNC on rhetoric. Sanders populist edge attracting youngs dropped the hardest blow.

Its insane if you think Sanders's socialist-leftwing base overlaps with Ron Paul's libertarian base.



I think there's more of an overlap than you realise. Sander's base is not socialists, it's educated whites and some college kids. The same college kids who liked Ron and to some extent his son. Ignoring his views on healthcare, women's rights, social security etc etc but focusing on his positions on drugs and war. It's not an ideological bunch, it's an issues-based group.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Paul polling worse nationally than his father was at this point in 2011 on: July 27, 2015, 05:36:53 pm
Paul's problem is that he's trying to straddle the establishment as well as trying to hold onto his father's support base.

Once Rand shifted on a number of issues to be a standard GOPer, he undermined his narrative.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Convention for Agreement on Regional Consolidation in Atlasia on: July 27, 2015, 05:23:22 pm
x Polnut

This vote is to support the discussion and debate. But there MUST be more to this than tinkering with maps.
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Continuity of Government Act on: July 27, 2015, 05:40:58 am
Do we have any objections to moving to a final vote?
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Another new Speaker on: July 27, 2015, 05:40:14 am
Due to the resignation of Senator Blair, it falls upon me, as the most Senior Senator to act as Speaker until we elect a new one.

I therefore ask for nominations for the position of Speaker. 24 hours for nominations.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Blair 4 Governor: Real Leadership for the Northeast on: July 27, 2015, 02:09:12 am
You earned the respect and support of a number of voters that two weeks ago, would have been unthinkable. You lost some as well that would have been solid by that same token though.

That is the thing though, the partisan barriers, the ones that are supposed to be the immutable rocks on which reform always dies, they change by the day. They shift constantly now in reaction to who is offering strong leadership. The actions taken in the Senate and the active campaign were tremendously effective in winning votes that would have seemed impossible. Yes there was a one vote defeat, but remember we had the Modcare leaks explode last week, and two key players were banned. Very few were focused on Atlasia during that time period as many were focused on trying to get justice for Griffin and BK.

By the same token, everytime we seem to be moving in a good direction, someone gets banned and a bunch of other people lose interest. That is precisely why this game has failed. You are right, interest levels are way down and until we restore that collectively, this game is only going to further decline. If we will it collectively, it will happen though.

I don't know who is driven by that.

I outlined my reasons for this vote. But I SERIOUSLY urge the Senator to reconsider his actions.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 26, 2015, 11:34:29 pm
Why does dudeabides (it's offensive that a Bush supporter has that name, but anyway) always thinks he needs to be a campaign surrogate?

Long story short, W will OBVIOUSLY support his brother and I doubt a public acknowledgement of that will have any impact at all.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls of CO, IA, VA. Clinton in big trouble. on: July 26, 2015, 11:14:04 pm
It is going to be so wonderful to see Hillary lose the Presidency to a one-term minority Senator who trounces her on charisma - for the second time.

Lol, cute.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans know they need to win over some Obama voters, right? on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:27 pm
Republicans know they need to win over some Obama voters, right?
(either that or a vast majority of the 18-22 vote)

If the Obama-phobic haters were outnumbered in 2008 and 2012, there's no way that more of them will show up in 2016, when he's no longer even running.

They need just enough Obama voters to win.

How in the world are they setting themselves up to do that??

Governor Bush is setting himself up to do that. He can win over hispanic voters, catholic voters, moderate voters, and white working class voters who helped his brother and President Obama win. He's doing it by talking about the need to have 4% economic growth and a foreign policy where America leads again. He's not changing his beliefs to win an election.

Some of the other primary candidates have no real chance of victory. Donald Trump alienates the vast majority of Americans with his anti-immigrant rheoric and name calling. Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal have both begun pandering to the right wing of the party much like Mitt Romney did in 2012, it will get them nowhere in a general election. Ted Cruz is the ultimate symbol of the government shutdown, he's too polarizing. Rand Paul's foreign policy is extreme and unrealistic. Chris Christie's record in New Jersey hurts him. Ben Carson has no experience and has made some pretty weird statements. George Pataki is extremely boring. Jim Gilmore was rejected by the voters of his home state, a swing state, when he last ran for office. Rick Perry was a very average Governor and has taken some positions in the past that would come back to haunt him.

So he is doing it by lying? "4% growth" is a worse economic talking point than "9-9-9"

The goal should be 4% growth. He's going to put forth specific policies to get us there. Growing at 4% would create 19 million new jobs in 8 years, that should be our aspiration as a country.

Actually no. That assumes growth across the board. 4% economic growth can come from sectors that aren't labor-intensive, so it's not an automatic thing. It COULD create 19 million new jobs (I'm hoping accounting for baby-boomer retirements) etc etc, but it could also not.

I'm yet to see Governor Bush do anything that your first sentence suggests. It will be very interesting to see how he handles immigration in a debate situation. Very interesting.
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