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8251  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 16, 2012, 11:44:10 pm
I'm sorry,  but this is total rubbish...

Obama DID say it was an act of terror, I know, because I watched the press conference live. Obama didn't know it was an organised cell ...

I'll say this once... if you're trying to make Crowley the story... then it's the biggest concession I can think of.
8252  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney looked... on: October 16, 2012, 11:33:44 pm
Can we please not do this...
8253  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 11:33:16 pm
There is a difference... there is a difference between calling a terroising act, a general act of terror - vs, this was perpetrated by an organised terrorist cell...

But you want to think, what you want to think. 
8254  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:01:03 pm
Obama won... pure and simple.

However, Obama was very strong early, he faded a bit in the middle, but roared back and that Libya response was devastating.

I probably would have called it an Obama edge before the Libya exchange, but I have to call it a clear Obama win.

8255  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official 2nd Presidential Debate Thread on: October 16, 2012, 07:08:29 pm
I'm usually pretty even, if Obama screws up... I'll say it...

But the stakes are incredibly high... much like in any election, the closer D-Day gets, the more the passion increases. One can be analytical and passionate at the same time.

'Awful' is the short-form version of many, many posts I've made about the Romney v Obama policy match, and I do think Mitt Romney's positions and lack of consistency do make him an awful candidate, and I have absolutely no faith that he'd be a good president. I didn't feel that way about McCain.

Sometimes you can't stay in an Ivory Tower all the time, sometimes you need to get down in the mud.

But win, lose or draw, once the election is over... the passion will recede and we return to normal.

8256  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: YouGov - State by State Polls on: October 16, 2012, 06:03:13 pm
This is what's worrying me... a lot of sh***y polls from no-names or completely in the tank (Koch-funded Gravis) forming a narrative, instead of reflecting it.
8257  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: YouGov - State by State Polls on: October 16, 2012, 05:51:26 pm
The numbers do look perfectly reasonable... but they haven't exactly got a good name, so they're chaff overall.
8258  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Mitt Romney a good person? on: October 16, 2012, 05:13:49 pm
I have no doubt Mitt Romney is a good person, he loves his family and has good intentions for the country... that doesn't mean he has the best plan.
8259  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official 2nd Presidential Debate Thread on: October 16, 2012, 05:12:32 pm
The CNN poll with have Romney win... unless he f***s up utterly, which I'm not expecting.

You know I disappeared for a while, but I can definitely tell you've grown more partisan over the last year.

Oh damn... sigh... anyway, we're going from the last two snap polls, which over-sampled GOP voters by roughly 8%... they have bad samples.

and I'm as partisan as I ever was, but if I've moved it's because I realised just how awful Romney is.
8260  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Kimball Political Consulting: Romney +11 on: October 16, 2012, 05:07:22 pm
Seems a little friendly to Obama.

Comedy... wasn't expecting that Tongue
8261  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Kimball Political Consulting: Romney +11 on: October 16, 2012, 04:57:39 pm
Non partisan, but not a name firm.  The actually were pollin for Murphy against West.

Doesn't change that they clearly have no idea what they're doing...
8262  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Kimball Political Consulting: Romney +11 on: October 16, 2012, 04:52:46 pm
Lol... no
8263  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official 2nd Presidential Debate Thread on: October 16, 2012, 04:30:15 pm
The CNN poll with have Romney win... unless he f***s up utterly, which I'm not expecting.
8264  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4 on: October 16, 2012, 03:38:11 pm
The more I read of this, the more problems I have with it... but eh...
8265  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 16, 2012, 02:59:03 pm
In the words of Nate Silver 'the polls have stopped making any sense... again'
8266  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4 on: October 16, 2012, 08:15:38 am
I think anyone looking at this poll with a Sunday sample THAT off and your reaction is anything beyond 'huh?' ... then yeah. FTR - I'd be saying exactly the same if the results were reversed...
8267  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama has led by 2% for the entire election on: October 16, 2012, 08:11:31 am
Yes, but I have issues when 24% of the numbers came from Sunday where Romney had a 12 point lead? Now does anyone think thats even close to being reasonable?
8268  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Ross Perot endorses Romney on: October 16, 2012, 07:46:32 am
It's real... just google search...

Not that it matters.
8269  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4 on: October 16, 2012, 07:41:07 am
Romney - 50%
Obama - 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week?

I assume Cliffy is going to continue that PPP is just about pushing liberal propaganda... honestly, I think there are reasonable questions about this poll (note the very odd Sunday sample)... but have at it.
8270  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA/NJ, Quinnipiac: Obama in the lead on: October 16, 2012, 07:18:30 am
Most people expected NJ to be a 10-14% win... this is relatively consistent with that.

I don't really understand why Romney didn't compete in PA... having said that, I'd be surprised if Romney hasn't hit his ceiling.
8271  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama has led by 2% for the entire election on: October 16, 2012, 02:03:39 am
Yet they do for state polls? Gooooood they suck lol

Consistency is aspirational apparently ...
8272  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama has led by 2% for the entire election on: October 16, 2012, 01:55:00 am
Romney is +0.1 on RepublicanClearPolitics as of the moment. Looks like his bump will be gone by Wednesday.

I see him at +1.0 right now. Am I look in the wrong spot?

Honestly, I hate that site, and I wish someone else would launch some other poll average site already so that people would stop using RCP. If you only used RealClearPolitics as your sole source of information, you would never have known how bad June-September was for Romney. They hardly ever covered 47%, or the flop of a convention. Basically every article written by an RCP staff journalist is Pro-Romney. They were my only source in 2008 and made it seem that the election was going to be much closer than it really was.

Yeah, he's at +0.1 now, but I expect once the 48-47 Romney result from ARG and whatever the PPP number is, is factored in, assuming no change on Ras or Gallup...Romney will move ahead again.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-...er-138516.html - something worth reading.
8273  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: The country according to different pollsters on: October 16, 2012, 01:24:09 am
So basically only ARG is painting pretty bad picture for Obama? Good to know.

And they've been consistent in how 'off' they've been..
8274  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predict your home county on: October 16, 2012, 01:00:03 am
My adopted home - Champaign Co, IL

Obama - 55%
Romney - 43%

My actual home...
Canberra

Obama - 89%
Romney - 10%
8275  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What would your reaction be if this was the result. on: October 16, 2012, 12:58:12 am
Deeply confused, but relieved...
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