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8251  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you doubt that Palin will be the nominee? on: September 29, 2010, 07:45:43 pm
And anyone with TP support will be flattened in the GE... so my suggestion to the Reps - find yourself a moderate (even if quietly so), Mid Westerner... sober moderation can beat Obama... far-right fervour will not.


8252  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Another one bites the dust on: September 29, 2010, 07:03:00 pm
then I guess my church is located in shouldlamd...and I should know, I am one of the 3 trusties

Perhaps. You do routinely get your ass handed to you by Reality Check Tech. Wink

Yet it simply would not happen in our church because the board would vote to allow the church to remove the pastor, at least temporarily, from the pulpit.  And we have policies in place to help avoid situations like this:  multiple chaperones, no expensive gifts, etc, etc, etc. 
In fact, even if you listen to the latest sermon I posted, our pastor even talks about the extra safeguards that are needed today:  both for the protection of the child and for the protection of the church against allegations.  We simply do not put ourselves in any situation that could be misconstrued.  This is reflected also in my astronomy thread where I mentioned that I would have multiple chaperones Ė itís simply part of my training and part of the rules of the church for anyone having anything to do with kids.  We have not had any incidences, and we donít want to ever have one.

This doesnít guarantee something could never happen, but it does reduce the chances.  And we have a trustee board that is willing to move quickly to remove any accused leader from their position of authority if complaints are lodged.  The security of our members and visitors, and keeping everything on the up and up, are things we discuss in every leadership meeting.  We hold such a meeting every Sunday from 9-9:30am, immediately prior to services.  Every staff member from the ushers to class teachers are required to be trained and retrained.  Though we have very few to no rules posted throughout the church, we constantly train and retrain our staff in everything from how to block access to anyone refusing a weapons search of his/her bags, to who and how many adults are to be present while children are in attendance.  And our pastor runs background checks on any person to attending more than once.  Weíre not looking for ex-cons, we have plenty of those attending, but we are looking for potential child predators. 

I myself have fingered someone, whom I barely knew, that was expressing a laser like interest in working with our young children.  The guy just didnít seem stable, he had no confidence in whatever he said and was always running himself down.  I called the pastor and explicitly objected to him having anything to do with my children and I was reassured that he wouldnít be given any opportunity to be involved with any kids.  It turns out the pastor new the personís background much better than I did, and my suspicion regarding this personís mentally stability were confirmed.

In my church, we understand it is NOT about the person in the pulpit, rather it is all about leading others to Christ by lifting up Christ.


Seriously... only me?

OK - I agree that the broader point is

a) why are pastors able to accrue such resources?

b) personally I think pose in the second photo is a bit of a give away... now he might actually be gay (bi... curious...whatever) but not doing anything but those guys are taking advantage of the situation... relying on people's idiotic gay=sexual predator idea.
8253  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you doubt that Palin will be the nominee? on: September 29, 2010, 06:54:26 pm
That worked for Huckabee didn't it?

I really think you'll have a lot of moderate (ie less fruit-cakey) Republicans who know that the religious-right's candidate will do well in IA and SC... however, the likely winner in NH, will probably also win MI which creates the said divide. A moderate Republican (who frankly is who they need to beat Obama) who can win the primaries in NH, MI, CA, NY, FL(?), and across the Mid-West is a much wiser choice than running to the extreme right...

The Rep nominee has to win somewhere outside of the south to get the nomination... Palin might be competition for Romney in the upper plains and the Mountain West, but she will get slaughtered on the coasts and in the mid-West.

If Thune and Pawlenty get into the race, that creates a whole new dynamic.
8254  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you doubt that Palin will be the nominee? on: September 29, 2010, 12:18:37 am
I most certainly do.

As I think I've commented previously, Palin's support is strong and loud but very narrow, basically an inch wide and a mile-deep kinda thing.

2008 for the Dems, while not pretty, wasn't especially bloody, largely because that wasn't  'soul searching' Clinton and Obama pretty much agreed on everything and the only thing different was the salesperson and delivery.

The Republicans are essentially divergent warring tribes held together by their dislike to hatred of Obama.

I have the distinct impression the 2012 Republican Primary is going to make the 2008 Dem one look like a Children's Birthday Party.
8255  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama's approval ratings ever be in the 60's again? on: September 29, 2010, 12:07:21 am
It seems when Obama is out there rallying the troops (so to speak) his numbers go up.

It helps that there is still a generally positive view of him personally, that always gives more room for recovery.

Bush's numbers in the second term were toast once that positive personal rating slipped.
8256  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama's approval ratings ever be in the 60's again? on: September 28, 2010, 08:16:18 pm
Clinton moved to the center. Obama is too egotistical for such a move. Yes, the climate is bad, but he still has himself to blame, too.

The fact that the Democrats have thrown away their chance within 2 years still dumbfounds me. While I support Bush, the fact is that the Democrats had the chance to dominate for at least a decade coming off of his unpopular reign. The libs really wasted their chance, it's amazing.

Sadly, I fear the GOP will waste their chance between Nov 2010 and 2012, too. But we will see.

More Egotistic than Clinton... seriously?

But seriously, Obama is in a very difficult spot politically.

Frankly, I think Obama wasted too much time trying to get the Reps on side. He got things done once he stopped trying to work with people whose only goal was screw him... which in turn... meant he screwed himself.

Obama's current poll weakness, I agree, is as much his own doing as anything else. But he's also shown to be pragmatic, and I think he will change tack if he needs to. In fact, I think he pretty much is.

... my view is that this is based on the perception of him that formed during the campaign. He appeared to many an aggressive liberal reformer. Which suited him politically, but that's not who he is.

He's a pragmatic moderate (maybe not in US terms, but in... you know... real terms) - in fact Hillary was probably more of a 'radical' than Obama ever was.
8257  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Sarah Palin Do THAT Badly If She Was Nominated In 2012? on: September 28, 2010, 07:39:51 pm
I'm not defending Palin, but I just want to say that people - wrongfully - interpret stupid public responses as being unintelligent.

I don't like Palin, I don't want her to be president, but I'm certain she's smarter than what the media portray her as.

I don't think Palin is STUPID, never have, never will.

I do think she is not intellectually curious, like GW Bush... frankly I think just being flat-out dumb is more defensible than just not caring enough or considering broadening your knowledge beyond what your interests are.
8258  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How to Vote on: September 28, 2010, 07:05:49 pm
I wouldn't have a clue of the religious faith of those I've voted for... and I'm very appreciative of that.
8259  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: U.S. Religious Knowledge Survey - unbelievers, Jews, and Mormons score highest on: September 28, 2010, 06:51:29 pm
outside of Christianity and old testament Judaism, I know about as little as I can of other religions....so I would probably score very low on this test

That's a good way to approach life, actively learn as little as possible about things that might prove you wrong.  Good luck with that, Stalin.

can you just save me the time and tell me which religion proves Christianity to be wrong?

You think having knowledge of other religious views is about confirming or dis confirming your own views.

That's pretty superficial faith.

I'm an agnostic and have no concerns about that - raised Anglican (Episcopalian), but I find the belief systems that drive others fascinating... but that doesn't mean I'm going change my beliefs based on that. I mean, I studied the rise of Nazism in Germany and 'Communism' in Russia... I'm neither a Nazi nor a Communist.
8260  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama's approval ratings ever be in the 60's again? on: September 28, 2010, 02:10:00 am
Plausible... you lot really need to think about Clinton here...

I don't think there's 40% who will never approve of what Obama does... 30%? sure, even 35%? yeah.

I doubt he'll get it this term, but if he's reelected it's plausible... surely.
8261  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Sarah Palin Do THAT Badly If She Was Nominated In 2012? on: September 28, 2010, 02:00:04 am
MK Ultra and 70% of this board were probably the same 10% who thought Palin bombed at the RNC convention.

She wasn't that great, and I will say it and it will never get old, John McCain really showed us how out of touch with reality he was when he picked her.

What does she honestly bring to the table? A bunch of witty remarks and the fact that she was chosen from obscurity to create a really horrible ticket? The people who are just as clueless as she is will vote for her, thats about it. Give her the extreme south, Texas, parts of the midwest up to the Dakotas and out towards Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah. Thats about it. She has no real strengths anywhere else.

I agree... what was so great about Palin at the RNC? she didn't flub her lines? she didn't belch? what?

For about... 2 weeks maybe 3 at most she was a slight positive for the Repub ticket... her virtually unknown status meant people didn't... know anything about her so the fact that it was a woman, from Alaska, with a downs syndrome child... was a curiosity... a novelty.

But once she was put on the spot (and I don't think she was treated unfairly, she was being put out there as the second in command of the country... tough) and actually had to speak... she showed what a HUGE mistake McCain had made.

I genuinely believe that he thought that there was going be such a huge number of PUMA voters out there that putting a woman up there was going to help... an anti-choice woman (not just pro-life), who hunts... yeah... smart.
8262  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Marilyn Manson on: September 28, 2010, 12:42:05 am
I think his music goes from inane screaming to actually quite intelligent stuff, I think the lyrics in Mechanical Animals are pretty good. I think he's losing relevance.

As a person, I think he's very smart and as someone who was always an outsider his compassion and understanding of the Columbine shooters was quite brave.

He attacks Christianity because he perceives that Christianity attacks those who are different. He was never a member of the Church of Satan, nor a Satanist.

Marilyn Manson is a CHARACTER, with a very deliberately crafted persona.

Side note...

Funny story, there's a portion of his old shows where he does a speech from a lectern with a Church of Satan symbol on it... and his roadies replaced it with a smiley-face and he had a hissy-fit.
8263  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dick Morris: GOP lacks imagination; could be gaining 100 seats rather than 73 on: September 28, 2010, 12:07:00 am
I'm actually trying to find a logic in Morris' 2008 map...

Obama did best in the South in states like GA, SC, MS etc etc, where there are a higher proportion of AAs... TN and KY...AR? far fewer blacks and states that he lost by nearly 20%..

I really... really hate to be all Opebo on this but I think race is a bigger issue in TN, AR, WV... than we would like to think about.
8264  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - The Election Decided - Moving On on: September 27, 2010, 08:24:32 pm
THURSDAY NOV 4: 9:45AM - IOWA has been called for George W Bush

FRIDAY NOV 5: 11:20AM - NORTH CAROLINA has been called for John Edwards



2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULT

Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/ Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) 306 EV - 49.6%
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/ Vice President Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 232 EV - 49.2%
8265  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Sarah Palin Do THAT Badly If She Was Nominated In 2012? on: September 27, 2010, 07:59:42 pm
Simple answer, yes.

She has a fervent following that makes a lot of noise, but doesn't actually reflect much at all.

She makes GWB look intellectually curious, and at least Bush had the Repub establishment behind him... they know she's an electoral disaster waiting to happen.
8266  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - The Election Decided - Moving On on: September 27, 2010, 06:20:32 pm
Sorry - have been away, will complete this phase shortly.
8267  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - The Election Decided - Moving On on: September 23, 2010, 10:25:48 pm
8:45AM - We are calling the state of NEVADA for John Edwards


PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH TO SPEAK IN WASHINGTON DC AT 11:30AM


PRESIDENT-ELECT JOHN EDWARDS TO SPEAK IN RALEIGH, NC AT 12:30PM
8268  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: HOW TO GET TO HEAVEN WHEN YOU DIE on: September 23, 2010, 06:56:38 pm
The way I look at it is this...

The God of the Old Testament is about control and adherence, so it's a vengeful, angry God, very much something to be feared... BUT The New Testament is about the establishment of the new church, so it's a God of conversion, so God (and also through his much more pleasant representative, Jesus) is much more loving and embracing... there's still laws in there to be sure... but it's bit like the difference between a military academy and a Montessori school.
8269  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 06:05:15 pm
2:15AM - At this hour we can project that George W Bush will win MISSOURI

North Carolina officials also suggest that the margin is too close to be able to determine a conclusive result tonight.

PRESENT TALLIES

IOWA

Bush: 49.37% - Edwards 49.23%

NORTH CAROLINA

Edwards: 48.94% - Bush: 48.68%

NEVADA

Bush: 49.67% - Edwards 49.31%

OHIO

Edwards: 49.61% - Bush: 48.98%


2:58AM: We can project that Senator John Edwards will win the state of OHIO


BREAKING NEWS: JOHN EDWARDS PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE UNITED STATES



EDWARDS: 286 EV

BUSH: 225 EV

TOO CLOSE TO CALL: 27 EV
8270  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 08:10:10 am
11pm on the East Coast and we can make some projections.

We can project that George W Bush will win the state of IDAHO

We can also project that Senator John Edwards will win the states of
CALIFORNIA
OREGON
WASHINGTON
HAWAII

11:35PM: We can project that George W Bush will win the state of ARKANSAS

11:46PM: We can project that Senator John Edwards will win MICHIGAN


MIDNIGHT EST

We can project that George W Bush will win ALASKA

Iowa election officials suggest that due to the current margin 49.46 for Bush and 49.43 for Edwards, the likelihood of any result tonight will be low.

12:14AM: We can project that Senator John Edwards will win COLORADO

12:34AM: We can project that George W Bush will win MONTANA

12:57AM: We are now in a position to project that Senator John Edwards will win WISCONSIN

1:45AM: George W Bush will win FLORIDA



Edwards - 266 EV
Bush - 214 EV
Too Close to Call - 58 EV
8271  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 07:43:01 am
10PM EST: We have some polls closing and we can make some projections

We can project than George W. Bush win UTAH and NORTH DAKOTA

We can't make a projection as yet for
IOWA
NEVADA
MONTANA


10:14PM: We can project that George W Bush will win TENNESSEE, we are also calling LOUISIANA for the President.

10:39PM: We can now project that George W Bush will win the states of KENTUCKY and ARIZONA



BUSH - 171 EV
EDWARDS - 153 EV
YET TO BE DETERMINED - 134 EV
8272  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 02:23:58 am
It is now 9pm EST another big batch of states to come... we can make the following projections.

George W. Bush will win the states of

WYOMING
NEBRASKA
and his home state of TEXAS

We can also project that Senator Edwards has won the states of

NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
RHODE ISLAND


We cannot project at present who has won the states of

MINNESOTA
ARIZONA
COLORADO
LOUISIANA
WISCONSIN
or SOUTH DAKOTA


9:10PM - We can project that George W. Bush will win the state of WEST VIRGINIA

9:38PM - We project that George W Bush will win the states of MISSISSIPPI and SOUTH DAKOTA - and we can also now project Senator John Edwards will carry the state of MINNESOTA.


9:51PM - We can now make an important projection, PNN projects that John Edwards will win the state of PENNSYLVANIA.



BUSH: 120 EV
EDWARDS: 153 EV
UNABLE TO DETERMINE: 153 EV
8273  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 02:05:55 am
8:20PM - We can now make some projections.

We project that President Bush will win the states of

GEORGIA
SOUTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
KANSAS

8:30PM EST

The polls have closed in the state of ARKANSAS but we cannot make a projection at this point.



BUSH: 62
EDWARDS: 82
UNABLE TO MAKE A PROJECTION: 121
8274  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 23, 2010, 01:33:53 am
The last three days of the 2004 Presidential Campaign are here.

Recent polls show a neck-and-neck race, with Edwards perhaps with a 1-2% edge, however, in those all important swing states, the polls should give neither Edwards nor Bush any comfort, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri and Edward’s home state, North Carolina are either line ball or within the margin of error.

Both candidates and their running-mates commence exhausting multi-states slogs all the way to elections day.

Bush
-   Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Texas, DC

Edwards
-   Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arkansas, North Carolina, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio… home to NC

Alexander
-   West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, DC

Richardson
-   Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina.

ELECTION DAY

2:00PM – Exit polls suggest strong early turnout in African-American districts, and generally higher turnout across the South and the West.

-   WELCOME TO PNN’s COVERAGE OF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – LOOKING TO BE AS CLOSE, IF NOT CLOSER THAN THE CONTROVERSIAL ELECTION OF FOUR YEARS AGO

Indiana and Kentucky's polls have closed...



INDIANA has gone to President George W Bush

KENTUCKY we cannot make a call on this state at present


7:00pm Eastern and several states have closed and we are able to make some projections

The state of VERMONT and its 3 electoral votes remain solidly in the Democratic column. Some were expecting this to be a closer result however we can also called the state of NEW HAMPSHIRE for Senator Edwards, this was a state won by George W. Bush by a very narrow margin four years ago.

We are waiting on more data to be able to make a call on GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and VIRGINIA


7:30PM EST

3 states have just closed but we are unable to make a projection about any of these states
OHIO
WEST VIRGINIA
and Senator Edwards' home state of NORTH CAROLINA

8:00PM EST

This is a big hour, a lot of states, a lot of electoral votes up for grabs. We can indeed make some projections.

President Bush has won the states of ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA, and we can call the following states for Senator Edwards
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ILLINOIS
MAINE
MARYLAND
MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY

However, we cannot make projections for the following states
FLORIDA
KANSAS
MICHIGAN
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
PENNSYLVANIA
TENNESSEE





BUSH: 20 Electoral Votes
EDWARDS: 82 Electoral Votes
UNABLE TO MAKE PROJECTION: 158

The panel stress that this really doesn't mean anything, after the debacle four years ago, very few want to make calls before they can be confident. What it does show is that Edwards has very strong support in traditional Democratic states.
8275  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 - Slight change... on: September 22, 2010, 07:50:33 pm
Wednesday 20 October, University of Maine
THE FINAL DEBATE

The two opponents who were noted for their relaxed attitudes toward each other at the start of the first two debates seem to have been hardened.

They’re friendly, but there’s a tension there too. Perhaps the increased personal campaigning each other is using is starting to have an effect?


Topics covered

Gay marriage:

Edwards says that DOMA should be repealed as he doesn’t believe that in order to value something, we need to devalue it for someone else. Supports civil unions, but considers marriage something between a man and woman.

Edwards notes that President Bush opposed the decriminalisation of homosexuality while Governor of Texas.

Bush says that he respect that the “institution of marriage and the family is central to America, and I believe that marriage is between a man and a woman. But having said that, the states do have the ability to direct policy and then have that policy judged”

When each is asked what their view is on the Federal Marriage Amendment, Bush says “It should be considered” Edwards says “Absolutely not, it’s an abuse of both the constitution and an attack on law-abiding American citizens, who want to live their lives as anyone does”

The deficit:

Bush says the spending engaged in by his administration has been necessary to defend the country and freedom around the world, and to stimulate the economy after the mild recession of 2000/1.

Edwards says the Bush tax cuts are reckless, and “if you knew someone who was in serious debt but still continued to generate debt while their expenditure vastly outweighs their income… you’d direct them to a financial planner. We are spending too much, we need to reduce the debt burden now or there will serious consequences”

Education:

Edwards “my life has been based upon securing the best education possible. This was instilled in me, by my parents. We have so many talented young people for whom the idea of college is unfathomable. Of course, college isn’t the only option. But learning a skill, a trade, earning a degree these are the tickets to financial independence and security”

Bush “one of the proudest moments of my term as president so far, was signing the no child left behind act. This provides funding directly to struggling schools helping lift those who might never have had a chance”

The general view is the Bush is getting more confident as these debates continue. Edwards, again, strong, confident, knowledgeable and comfortable. Neither made any errors not knock-out blows.

WHO WON THE DEBATE
MSNBC: E – 43% B – 36% U-21%
CNN: E – 46% B- 31% U – 23%
FOX: E – 44% B- 37% U – 19%




Edwards/Richardson - 49%
Bush/Alexander - 48%


--- next, the final dash... and election night
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