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8251  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pro-Obama ad about America ‘Sick People Just Die’ & ‘Oil Fills the Sea’ on: October 28, 2012, 02:26:24 am
It's a trifle melodramatic...

But in the end there's a lot of crap on both sides, especially from the peripheral interest groups, another reason I'm going to be soooo happy when this thing is over with.
8252  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9 on: October 28, 2012, 01:36:10 am
Very well, I don't think that well, but Bush obviously did incredibly well among Latinos overall... for a Republican.

Edit - Bush made up for a drop-off of Cuban support, which was very small, with that increased support for Latinos overall, and won the Latino vote 56-44.

So it's not impossible, but going on demographic shifts I really have issues with that element of the polling.
8253  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9 on: October 28, 2012, 01:25:38 am
Yes outside of M-D, PR's are much more prevalent.

Using 2008 as a baseline, Obama lost Cubans 52-46... so while I understand a drop-off, that 76-19 number is MASSIVE, and eye-brow raising shift. I'd be curious to know the size of the sample and the MoE...

Well Mason Dixon did catch Romney's big win amongst hispanics in the FL primary, unlike PPP which had Gingrich up amongst them.

Yes, which is why I'm taking this seriously, those numbers just make so little sense to me.
8254  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9 on: October 28, 2012, 01:17:21 am
The only issue I have is that Obama lost ground among Latinos, even accounting for Cubans that's an ENORMOUS shift that really isn't being seen anywhere else.
8255  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 28, 2012, 12:57:34 am
RAND is a novelty this season, we'll see how it turns out in the wash.
8256  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Military ballots "accidently" lost on: October 28, 2012, 12:33:47 am
Oh come on you sad little man
8257  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-University of Cincinnati Poll: Tied race, 49-49 on: October 27, 2012, 11:46:20 pm
I think people need to relax, one not great poll, and suddenly people are talking about alternative paths? If people are going to have these sorts of reactions for the next 9 days then I would suggest taking up drinking.
8258  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-University of Cincinnati Poll: Tied race, 49-49 on: October 27, 2012, 11:42:06 pm
well well well, in the closing days we're now seeing another major surge towards Romney!

Not quite, considering more polls have been undertaken here after this one with different results.
8259  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 27, 2012, 11:40:27 pm
Obama's approvals have been consistently much lower than the consensus number, in PPP, for what it's worth.
8260  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney doing better in automated polls, not so good in live polls on: October 27, 2012, 11:38:20 pm
But what he was saying wasn't hackery - he was stating an anecdote which reflects a point, then you went all hyper-partisan. Just because someone is politically involved doesn't mean they're instantly incapable of impartiality. I don't think I could look at myself if I was like that... It sounds horrible.
8261  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-University of Cincinnati Poll: Tied race, 49-49 on: October 27, 2012, 11:35:00 pm
Attention I assume... Or it's for a Sunday feature?
8262  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney doing better in automated polls, not so good in live polls on: October 27, 2012, 11:33:44 pm
Um... Apparently Wink is the international symbol for, I'm going to say something prattish, but then pretend it's good natured.
8263  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-University of Cincinnati Poll: Tied race, 49-49 on: October 27, 2012, 11:26:55 pm
We just have to take each poll at they come.
8264  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney doing better in automated polls, not so good in live polls on: October 27, 2012, 11:24:54 pm
It's not an issue of what 'should' be, there are enough people who aren't confident in their English who vote... and are entitled to vote. If polling isn't taking that into consideration - then they're doing themselves a disservice at the very least.

If there's some evidence to suggest that under polling of Latinos, which there is in NV, CO, AZ then it should at least be looked at.
8265  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney doing better in automated polls, not so good in live polls on: October 27, 2012, 09:42:20 pm
Also noting that Obama does better when there is a Spanish language option...
8266  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 27, 2012, 09:40:12 pm
Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney Roll Eyes

Considering that's been the only non-Gallup/Ras tracker to be consistently more friendly for Romney I would suggest not resorting to Roll Eyes
8267  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Last 10 Days-Who do you think will win? on: October 27, 2012, 09:03:51 pm
Yeah... but, you know, people...
8268  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do Newspaper Endorsements Matter? on: October 27, 2012, 08:30:45 pm
They certainly have less effect than they had in the past... I doubt they actually make a difference.
8269  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Colorado on: October 27, 2012, 08:27:48 pm
Last week I had Romney winning it, 50-48... but now, I have Obama winning it by a similar margin.

8270  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Last 10 Days-Who do you think will win? on: October 27, 2012, 08:21:16 pm
Not a final prediction...



Obama/Biden - 303EV - 49.1%
Romney/Ryan - 235EV - 48.9%

Phips, underestimate the Obama machine at your peril...
8271  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of J.J. on: October 27, 2012, 07:37:04 pm
He behaves in a unique way because of who he is and how he views the world, not because he's trolling or trying to pick fights, and if you find his behavior impossible to deal with, put him on ignore. He drives me nuts some times but I can't call him an HP for that. God knows I drive people nuts for the same reasons some times.

Generally this is my view of JJ, but of late he's gotten a bit... tetchy?
8272  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Incumbents often do better than final polls on: October 27, 2012, 07:34:24 pm
1996 and 2000 were both examples where national and state polling were telling very different stories, but the state polls were closer to the mark. Which is what we're probably seeing now.
8273  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Schism Opens Among Millennials: Younger Voters More Fiscally Conservative on: October 27, 2012, 07:27:08 pm
'Conservative' is a relative term... people like Magnetic say "grrr, you're not a real conservative" etc etc... but for example you have to consider the term MORE fiscally conservative, as opposed to being fiscally conservative.

HOWEVER, the biggest problem, is that they, overall, are very supportive of action on climate change, same sex marriage and abortion rights and those things do effect their votes, unlike the Tories (the poster), who are financially secure enough to vote their whims sometimes, but overall are wealthy enough to not have to worry those perky equal rights and will vote purely on economic self-interest.

The other thing I've noticed among Millennials is that while there is more interest in economic restraint at the same time as being very socially liberal, they ARE more altruistic overall.
8274  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Colorado on: October 27, 2012, 05:53:06 pm
Colorado is the lynch-pin of Romney's whole strategy as far as I'm concerned.
8275  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 27, 2012, 04:13:12 pm
The one tracker I've been secretly watching since they began is Reuters, primarily because they were the ONLY tracker in 2010 to get it right.
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