Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 03, 2016, 04:48:35 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 326 327 328 329 330 [331] 332 333 334 335 336 ... 768
8251  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 25, 2013, 08:41:53 am
Most I've spoken to had Hindmarsh as a chance for the LNP, but a reach.
8252  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 25, 2013, 07:55:16 am
Yeah, strange. Possibly rounding could be a factor though.

Could well be...
8253  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 25, 2013, 07:53:07 am
Newpoll ... developing

Primary
ALP: 37% (+3)
LNP: 47% (NC)
GRN: 9% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 47% (+1)
LNP: 53% (-1)

... seems a bit odd with that TPP...
8254  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT: Iowa GOP fears its role in selecting nominee may diminish on: August 25, 2013, 05:50:30 am
Good!!!
8255  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 25, 2013, 04:25:27 am
According to PVO... the Newspoll out later tonight will apparently generate an interesting reaction...

I think either Abbott is now preferred PM or there's been swing back to the ALP... I'm leaning toward a correction from the slight odd number last week.
8256  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season IX - "CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD" on: August 25, 2013, 12:26:47 am
Bushie... it's not one post, it's your entire posting history.

There are things that I do feel guilty about, but I don't beat myself up over them.  I ask forgiveness from the person I offended and from my God and I move on because I am forgiven.

You ask for forgiveness... and because of your inability to accept adult responsibility for your mistakes, you ask for forgiveness from something that can't say 'no' to you. Therefore not saying 'no' equals 'yes'.

Which is pretty much part and parcel of your problems.

I own up to my mistakes a lot more than you realize.  I'm not a total childish douche...

Accepting mistakes and asking for forgiveness from something that can't say 'no' to you... and accepting responsibility and doing things to change it are two markedly different things.

You're accusing me of something false.  I am human, I make mistakes, but news flash: you are human and you make mistakes.

No one - and read carefully - is saying that mistakes don't get made. Because they do - but I am accusing you of not taking responsibility for those mistakes and learning from them. You ask forgiveness from God, then throw it back at your enabling parents to fix them.

I'm younger than you, I've made terrible mistakes, but I've learned from them - but it seems you haven't learned a damn thing.
8257  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season IX - "CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD" on: August 24, 2013, 09:13:16 pm
Bushie... it's not one post, it's your entire posting history.

There are things that I do feel guilty about, but I don't beat myself up over them.  I ask forgiveness from the person I offended and from my God and I move on because I am forgiven.

You ask for forgiveness... and because of your inability to accept adult responsibility for your mistakes, you ask for forgiveness from something that can't say 'no' to you. Therefore not saying 'no' equals 'yes'.

Which is pretty much part and parcel of your problems.

I own up to my mistakes a lot more than you realize.  I'm not a total childish douche...

Accepting mistakes and asking for forgiveness from something that can't say 'no' to you... and accepting responsibility and doing things to change it are two markedly different things.
8258  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season IX - "CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD" on: August 24, 2013, 08:59:52 pm
Bushie... it's not one post, it's your entire posting history.

There are things that I do feel guilty about, but I don't beat myself up over them.  I ask forgiveness from the person I offended and from my God and I move on because I am forgiven.

You ask for forgiveness... and because of your inability to accept adult responsibility for your mistakes, you ask for forgiveness from something that can't say 'no' to you. Therefore not saying 'no' equals 'yes'.

Which is pretty much part and parcel of your problems.
8259  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season IX - "CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD" on: August 24, 2013, 08:40:04 pm
Bushie... it's not one post, it's your entire posting history.
8260  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season IX - "CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD, Kenya, CAD" on: August 24, 2013, 08:20:49 pm
When I eat Subway versus Burger King, Mickey's, or the like, I've noticed that's an automatic half pound difference minimum the next morning.

That's not how it works; that means you either drank less, ate less, or pooped more.

The Subway sandwich has far less calories than the burgers I normally get at either BK, McD, or Braum's.  We're talking 600 calories for Subway and anywhere between 1,000-1,300 calories for the burger, not including if I get cheese and fries with ti.  I normally get the double patty burgers at any place I go.  So, the Subway sandwiches in some cases are half the calories.

OK, but the effects only having half the calories are not going to manifest themselves overnight.  If you eat 5 pounds of celery, you're going to weigh more in the morning than if you'd eaten 2 pounds of ground beef.  Eventually it'll lead to a weight decrease, but it won't manifest itself overnight.

True, but I know from experience nearly every single time I eat fewer calories, I weigh less the next morning.  Of course, it is helped out with a BM both before bed and first thing in the morning.

Quote
How can bushie financially afford to eat out every day?

To be honest, I get spending money from Mom periodically.

Periodically?  You've been getting spending money from Mom ever since you quit your job in Utah!

How can bushie financially afford to eat out every day?
His version of the story is that his parents give him an ample allowance. Perhaps he's related ti Walter White. He did mention ABQ a while back.

Hey, it's the best I can do for now.  Its nothing really to be ashamed of, either.

A 31-year-old man taking an allowance from his parents is definitely something to be ashamed of.  I'm embarassed for you.  I mean... my sister wastes my parents money quite a bit, but at least she has a job.  Granted, she's defrauding money out of them to pay for a wedding ring, and you did it for porn, although I'm actually not quite sure that the wedding ring is better than the porn.

It is nothing to be ashamed of.  I am hardly the only 31-year-old man living with his parents and needing their help.    Yes, I want to change that, and I am changing it right now with this CADD certificate pursuit.  It just won't be an immediate change.  Kansas City is on the horizon.

I'm not sure the "I'm not the only one!" argument is what you really want to make.  And there's nothing wrong with getting help from your parents.  I still get "help" from my parents.  They provide me with a place to live (and that's about it, other than occasional food).  You are 100% fully dependent on your parents.  There's a big difference between getting help and mooching.  I don't mean to harp on this, but you downplay how much they do for you quite a bit.  You make it sound like your behavior is normal; IT'S NOT!

As I've said, I have nothing to feel ashamed about.  I'm doing what I need to do to get out of that situation.  There's no harm or shame in staying in this situation for another 9 months or so while I create an opportunity to get completely off their dole as soon as I move out.  I want to be in Kansas City by June 1, 2014 and I expect to make enough money to be able to shake loose of their support completely by July 1, 2014 once I start getting paychecks under my belt.  That's what I'm working toward.  It's a little embarrassing now, but it's worth it enduring a little embarrassment now for big reward later.

And here lies the ENTIRE sodding point of these updates... he REFUSES to feel any shame or guilt... when frankly, if I were in his position, it'd be like a millstone around my neck.
8261  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2013 Federal Election - At-Large Senate on: August 24, 2013, 07:31:51 pm
1. Gass
2. Napoleon
3. SJoyceFla
4. Tmth
5. Xahar
6. Maxwell
8262  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:28:11 pm
In the absence of Rudd, Griffith would not be a safe seat at all (he has a substantial personal vote for whatever reason), but I think this is one of those things you have to put into the noted and very important category of 'I'll believe it when I see it'. Now, a by-election following hastily on from a Rudd 'resignation' five seconds after an election defeat...

Rudd worked pretty hard at a constituency level in the parts of the seat least likely to vote for him (originally around Carindale, which is now in Bonner). He did attract a personal following, as a result. That said, there are safe Labor areas in the seat, particularly (obviously) South Brisbane/West End/Highgate Hill, which were in the seat of Brisbane when Rudd lost in 1996 (and why Bevis held Brisbane then, but subsequently has lost the seat - it also absorbed Ascot/Hamilton/Clayfield from Lilley, making Wayne Swan more likely to hold it, even though he lost in 96).



Regarding divisions in areas deemed likely to swing heavily, be sure always to check what the swing was last time round. If it was large and against the ALP, then they'll be less room for a large swing ('large' defined as relative to the rest of the wider area in question) this time round. And vice versa, etc.

This is certainly my assumption, with occasional exceptions to the rule.

Which is kind of why I'm not at all comfortable giving away Lingiari, there was a 13% against Snowden on primary at more than 7% TPP... it's certainly not impossible/plausible for Snowden to lose... but the rule of all things being equal, how much bile in there reasonably left in some of these electorates?

8263  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 09:33:27 am
That would be odd... not implausible, but highly unlikely
8264  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:51:19 am
I think either way, some people are going to be embarrassed ... we have to wait and see.
8265  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:41:27 am
Well Workchoices was what killed the Howard Government and it was in their long-term political interests to see the back of it, and to be seen actively participating in its end.  I was referring to Climate Change, considering it was THE issue that caused Abbott and Minchin to move against Turnbull.

 
8266  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:00:14 am
I'm not prepared to say there's no way back - it's more likely than not that they have lost - but it will be close enough that Abbott will have to watch his every step. Plus the Senate will block EVERYTHING he tries to do. He'll have his mandate respected as much as he respected Rudd's.
8267  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you always vote for the same party? on: August 24, 2013, 03:34:10 am
I have voted Liberal in the past, but when it comes to my first preferences, it'll be ALP or Green.
8268  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your savings rate? on: August 24, 2013, 03:24:59 am
It varies a lot. Expenses like healthcare and auto repairs are not predictable. Now that my car is paid for, I have a little more breathing room. If I can squirrel away 10%, and I'm very fortunate that I usually can, I feel pretty good about myself. Notd to the young folks, this gets extremely difficult once you leave your parents' basement. Stay down there as long as possible.

I think this place is a sign that they're not leaving... I don't have a set amount... but it ends up being around 15%... but depending on expenses it could be 30% or none.
8269  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 03:18:06 am
Like for example, how are the ALP holding their own in the state-wide polling in Queensland, but are really struggling in the individual seat polling? Labor doing better in marginals rather than safe seats doesn't tell the full story here.....

Wouldn't it be the other way round, that Labor is doing better in safe seats than marginals?

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

Isn't polling showing a rather large swing in SA, a mid-size one in Queensland (concentrated in Brisbane; in rural areas/the north of the state it seems they may actually gain due to the KAP's preferences), enough to get 3 seats in Victoria, with only WA holding steady? That's how I'm interpreting this...
Yes it should. Thank you Vosem.

The problem with that theory Vosem, is that in the 29 seats in QLD, the ALP only hold 8 of them... and their biggest margin is Griffith with 8.5%. There aren't enough 'safe-seats' for that explanation to hold water.

Extend that further... to consider the seat-by-seat polling, including the two Newspolls of Griffith and Forde, showing a similar sized swing... mean both the state-level Newspoll is right, and the electorate polls are wrong (although with a MoE near to 5%), vice-versa... or they're all wrong. I mean, you cannot have 8-10% swings in both marginal and their safest seats... and end up with a state-wide swing of 2% TO them.

EDIT: http://election.crikey.com.au/cash-tracker/ - the Libs up to $61 billion in spending promises, without outlining specific savings yet.
8270  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: The Committee Approval...Impeachment Amendment (At Final Vote) on: August 24, 2013, 03:01:50 am
I'll change my vote to aye for the sake of ease... I don't have particularly strong views on this.
8271  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 11:07:29 pm
Based on both polling and what I'm being told -
- outside of Sydney there seems to a swing to the ALP, but in some pockets of Sydney the swing is large, but in the realm of 5-6% and not double-digit by any means.

- QLD is kind of intersting, I've heard nothing to suggest a loss of seats for the ALP, but there will be odd swings in QLD. I would be the least but surprised if the ALP pick one up in FNQ.

- The swing in VIC is moderated - a 3 seat loss is kind if seen as the ceiling, most have given Corrangamite away, Deakin is dodgy, but the ALP is feeling much more comfortable about LaTrobe and Chisolm. The swing is coming off a high, but I'm under the impression the swing will be relatively small.

- SA has been an increasing worry over the past few days. There was a large swing to the Libs, which did start to come back, but the fact that Abbot is back in Adelaide suggests the swing to the Libs might be pushing out again. I can see Wakefield as their only chance for a pick up - but I kind of doubt it happens.

- WA ... is flat out weird, despite the Newspoll, I think it's almost undoubted that there will be a swing to the ALP - the degree to which the candidate for Hasluck is being pushed tells me that this is their likely pick-up.

- NT - I think Solomon could be a surprise - it wouldn't shock me if there's a seat swap - but Snowden has a strong personal vote and support base with Indigenous voters.

- TAS will be intersting - a swing is unavoidable the issue is how big. Bass and Braddon are probably gone... the issue is that the only polling has been done by the robopolls... so I don't think we have a real idea of TAS until the night itself.

- ACT status quo, will probably have the smallest swings - the Senate race will be intersting, but I can't see the Lib primary being low enough to risk the Grens picking it up.
8272  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 09:08:31 pm
Apparently the Griffith push was preplanned, and IMO a feelgood project which should be only attempted after more advances are made in QLD.

Since we're on the subject of leadership, I'm still hoping for Shorten as Labor leader. Looking beyond the horizon, are there any young, dry Liberal econocrats in sight?
Hawke?

Hawke has 'issues'... and would be a problem with leadership. I don't think that's the direction the Libs need to go in. Their current support is based on swing-voters being pissed off at the ALP, not a new coalition base.

They need to moderate on social issues, whilst maintaining their more free-marketish position... they basically need to make consistent in-roads into soft-ALP supporters.
8273  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 08:35:06 pm
I think the upper limit is about 85... but again, I'm hearing a lot more anxiety from the Coalition supporters that they know the election is a lot more complex and closer than polling suggests... and they don't want people to think that the election is in the bag.
8274  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 05:35:57 pm
Is this all basically over then?

It never started.

That's a basically an over-statement. Rudd frankly was pretty disappointing in the first two weeks and handed momentum to Abbott.
8275  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Assembly Election & Two Amendments on: August 23, 2013, 05:33:17 pm
Official Ballot

Northeast Assembly

Five people will be elected to the Assembly.

[6] a Person [butafly] (Light - Maine)
[1] Dr. Cynic (Labor - Pennsylvania)
[2] Earthling (Liberal - Vermont)
[5] Goldwater [Republitarian] (Federalist - Delaware)
[3] Hatman [EarlAW] (Washburnist Socialist Rev. Party - New York)
[4] Matt from VT (Federalist - Vermont)
[ ] None of the above
[ ] Abstain
[ ] Write-in:____________

The Northeast Cabinet Amendment (Proposed Regional Amendment)

[X] Aye
[ ] Nay
[ ] Abstain

Amendment to Article V, Section 2, Clause 5 of the Constitution. (Proposed Federal Amendment)

  • Aye
[ ] Nay
[ ] Abstain
Pages: 1 ... 326 327 328 329 330 [331] 332 333 334 335 336 ... 768


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines