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8251  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post your Obama v. Gingrich electoral maps on: November 21, 2011, 05:46:31 pm
Anyone who thinks it's remotely possible for Newt Gingrich to get 65% of the popular vote should be put in hack prison and given the death penalty.

Oh okay. You're a conservative Democrat in the US. You have 13% plus unemployment and a candidate just made your incumbent look like an incompetent boob in a debate. And you're going to vote for the incumbent? Yeah right. Granted a lot has to line up to hit a number like that, but Newt destroys Obama to the point that Obama has a Richard Nixon moment in a debate while the economy is going down the tubes and you'll see numbers post like that quite easily actually.

Honestly... I'd wonder given the polarisation whether 65% is even possible in this GOP wet-dream scenario.
8252  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post your Obama v. Gingrich electoral maps on: November 21, 2011, 05:42:20 pm
Hard to say. Unlike Romney, who is basically assured of getting 47-50% of the popular vote, Gingrich has a higher ceiling and a much lower floor (maybe 42% to 53% 63%).

Oh come on... can't accuse pbrower of hackery then pull that lol


For the record, I don't think Newt is a disastrous candidate (ie, would send the EV count backwards... but he's not the Messiah). If Newt runs a decent campaign, he could make the President work for MI, PA, OH, IA (especially if he wins there in Jan) and VA and will probably win NC and IN. But he's unpredictable... which will make things interesting.

I agree that Gingrich being more unpredictable and more of a risky choice, would lead to a wider PV range. I would say 44-52%, I think Romney (assuming a double-dip... a real one, not two recessions happening 3 years apart, unemployment increasing) has a higher ceiling 53-54%, but an equally higher floor 45-47%.
8253  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: H. E. A. R. T. - Tracking the November 2011 Special Senate Election on: November 20, 2011, 11:06:34 pm
Eeeeek....

So the next step is the candidate with the most second preferences?
8254  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Running again in 2016? on: November 20, 2011, 08:25:18 pm
I doubt Obama comes back... the GOP will welcome back losers time and time again... but once you blow it as a Dem... that's it.

But I agree the EV/PV split is the only circumstance
8255  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I have a HUGE opportunity (Attention Whoring) on: November 20, 2011, 06:26:05 pm
Some words of note/warning...

Kenya is a favoured spot for more... charismatic Christian Churches, considering 83% of Kenya is Christian, the majority of these are mainline protestants, don't really go to convert the small Muslim community - they tend to go to convert other Christians to their more... fire and brimstone beliefs.

A friend from School went on a mission to a small town outside Nairobi, which is largely Catholic. When asking why they came to this village, rather than trying to work in the Muslim areas in Coast province - he was told "it's too difficult, these people are already halfway there", plus Kenya is perfect as being sub-Saharan Africa, but with a small Muslim population and a lower HIV rate than Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

He became increasingly disenchanted, considered the whole process incredibly insulting to the otherwise intelligent locals. And he no longer is a participant in any Church.

But from my experience of traveling in Kenya, which is a beautiful country full of good people. Don't even try exchanging money there... you will get screwed. Go into a large bank chain and most will be able to order you some Kenyan currency in. Same thing goes for medication, I took everything before I left. There is a market in counterfeit malaria medications.
8256  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Let's not kid ourselves any longer on: November 20, 2011, 07:18:16 am
So what you're proposing is to make the Senate dynamics subject to more political discipline? And/or creating a new level of political discourse?

One thing from my experience is that with the exception of voting... generally party discipline and similar thoughts and processes falls apart when faced with something that a person simply doesn't like.

But if you can get something positive out of it... I'd support it.
8257  General Politics / Economics / Re: we actually might be witnessing the death of socialism! on: November 20, 2011, 02:04:24 am
The European left is in a bit of a crisis. The Right sold out their ideology decades ago, but the left is still not used to it.

Yeah I know right. The notion that much of the European right(as opposed to the US right) has an ideology left is kind of hilarious.

That's because the US right has nothing but ideology.


As usual this thread is a collective circle-j**k for the right who think this crisis validates everything everything they ever believed... when in many ways this can be traced back to the unrestricted and unregulated capitalism they think is the answer to all the world's problems... well if you include jmfcst... the Bible as well... Tongue
8258  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: NOVEMBER 2011 SENATE AT LARGE BY ELECTION on: November 19, 2011, 05:03:49 pm
1. Cincinnatus
2. Nathan
3. Yelnoc
8259  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cain comes out as anti-reading on: November 17, 2011, 08:06:07 pm
Of course, he's running in this GOP Primary season...
8260  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 80% of ‘Green Energy’ Loans Went to Top Obama Donors on: November 17, 2011, 07:34:26 pm
And is there evidence of GOP Green Energy advocates?
8261  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama supporters, who do you think has the best chance to beat Obama? on: November 17, 2011, 06:55:26 pm
Huntsman. If he were the front runner of GOP he would have over 50% chance of beating Obama.

But almost no chance of getting the GOP base out... without some back-flips that would make Romney question his integrity.
8262  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama supporters, who do you think has the best chance to beat Obama? on: November 17, 2011, 06:10:37 pm
Romney could hurt Obama in his firewall states, nobody else in the running can do that.
8263  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: November 17, 2011, 05:23:56 pm
...or a bad sample.
8264  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rand Paul as VP? on: November 16, 2011, 08:15:42 pm
Not a chance in hell... he makes the top of the ticket look credible and stable... wait a second Tongue
8265  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: November 16, 2011, 06:41:30 pm
Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michigan’s Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way he’s handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

You really need to get a grip...
8266  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you have strong work ethic? on: November 15, 2011, 11:51:00 pm
It's not universal... if it something I care about? Sure
8267  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Congress Forever anyone? on: November 14, 2011, 06:56:21 pm
My best results:
2010 House Dems 260 Seats Notables: Bachmann, Heller (my representative), West, Foxx, Walsh, Quayle.
2010 Senate Dems 59 Notables: Reid reelected with 61%, Feingold reelected with 63%, Paul, Grassley, Vitter, Toomey, Ayotte. Tried going for McCain but only got 44% there.



Reid got 58% and Feingold 54% - I also tried McCain but he had a 7% lead 2 weeks out (and being over 50%) and pulled resources out and moved them to KY and PA... Sestak won 52.4% despite being down 42-46 two-weeks out.

I gave Bachmann special attention - and while I didn't beat her - I got her down below 50% and yes, I beat Allen West - 52-48%
Did you have to defeat West? He's my guy in the ring.

Absolutely...
8268  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Barack Obama (D-IL) vs. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) on: November 14, 2011, 04:11:08 pm
Context:  U.S. Recession, UE 10.3%

Obama 223
Newt    315




...and the alternative? or is that an admission that that's the only circumstance in which Gingrich could win?
8269  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA: SurveyUSA: Obama up double-digits on: November 14, 2011, 12:44:19 am
I don't think anyone actually expects him to reach 62% this time.

It could be quite easy to argue that it doesn't look good that Romney can't break 40% when the world has turned against Obama.
8270  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 56% of the British public support reinstating the draft on: November 13, 2011, 10:49:31 pm
There's a brilliant episode of Yes, Prime Minister talking about the reinstatement of national service (which is usually the issue of these surveys). How you frame the question and how you lead up to it will have an impact on the public response.
8271  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Homely's elections results repository on: November 13, 2011, 08:14:23 pm
June 2011 Presidential Election

invalid 1 (20RP12)

Ah yes.

Yeah..... 




..... Tongue
8272  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Congress Forever anyone? on: November 13, 2011, 08:09:54 pm
I gave Bachmann special attention - and while I didn't beat her - I got her down below 50% and yes, I beat Allen West - 52-48%
8273  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How many electoral votes would Cain win? on: November 13, 2011, 07:56:14 pm
I think there are quite a few states that have a majority so against Obama that Michael Moore's ficus plant would win.



That's 56EV for Cain... I think if Obama stuffs up badly, he could swing 100-120 max.
8274  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Congress Forever anyone? on: November 13, 2011, 06:50:21 pm
I got this over the weekend... it's FAR more involved than President Forever, as you actually have to manage the campaigns down to individual race level, including allocating funds, running individual ads.

My results... I actually campaigned on healthcare.... AND

House
DEM: 248 (-8)
GOP: 187 (+8)

Senate
DEM: 55 (-4)
GOP: 45 (+4)

Incumbents defeated: Blanche Lincoln
Lost open seats: IL, IN, ND

Came within 4,000 votes of Rand Paul in KY and 15,000 of Burr in NC
8275  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: The Atlasian Anti-bullying Bill 2011 (on the President's desk) on: November 12, 2011, 08:12:24 pm
Great work Senators!
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