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8251  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Other Dems Slightly Scared Now? on: October 07, 2012, 11:18:50 pm
Quote
As a fellow white person, I want to apologize for all my ivory brothers and sisters who like to complain about reverse racism, as if it's just as big a problem. It's almost as bad as Evangelical Christians who think that their faith is under attack.

What about Catholics - who most certainly are a minority in America? Is their faith not under attack with Obamacare forcing them to purchase contraception?


Are we SERIOUSLY getting in this s*** again... whether or not you're a religious institution, if you're a secular employer, yes you should be obliged to cover all employees.

I wasn't thrilled that Obama backed down on that one (which he did BTW)... but it was a workable compromise and the only people who kept on with it... basically are people who need to find things to offended by and claim victim status.
8252  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Romney the next Reagan? on: October 07, 2012, 11:10:19 pm
Reagan without charisma and with a manic look on his face?
8253  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Should Obama just drop out and let Hillary Clinton take over? on: October 07, 2012, 11:08:35 pm
A couple weeks ago everyone was declaring the race over because of the 47% video, and talking about how Romney would go down as the worst nominee in modern history. Now Obama gives one bad debate performance and people are declaring the race over again. Both are complete overreactions. The fact is, Romney was a big underdog before the debate. Now he's a moderate underdog. The fundamentals of the race still favor Obama.

I think the "real polls" always showed a tight race with even Romney leading a few times over the past few months.  The mainstream media PR really propped up Obama after the DNC and helped his poll numbers, but that was an Obama bubble.  Romney has a very good chance at winning, even if its a close win like in 2000. 

Considering how the media assisted in the hysterical reaction to the debate... it shows what they want is a story... and either candidate imploding is as much a story as a close race...

But, on point, I can't wait until you allege the media being Obama's pocket because they share dealers.
8254  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 on: October 07, 2012, 07:53:55 pm
I said to a friend that was panicking about WI and 'oh God what about VA!' my argument was that VA has been a LOT more stable than WI this year.
8255  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Romney overtake Obama on the RCP average? on: October 06, 2012, 11:01:00 pm
I'm not surprised - I always thought his  absolute floor was 45% so seeing greater GOP consolidation and a second look from some indies and soft Dems should surprise anyone to see him at 47%
8256  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Romney overtake Obama on the RCP average? on: October 06, 2012, 10:35:49 pm
Romney needs to get ahead of Obama by a decent amount now to make sure it can last for a month. I expect them pull level by Tuesday at the latest...
8257  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How long will Romney's bounce last? on: October 06, 2012, 09:58:15 pm
I don't think this is a bounce. I think it's a perspective change. Mitt Romney spent 90 minutes making himself look like a credibe and smart president. If you ask me, it's going to stick. People have always wanted an alternative to Obama, except, until now, Romney never looked like he'd be worth it. Suddenly, he's Ronald Reagan.

Don't go nuts ... we have no idea what this is yet - anything else is just wishful thinking
8258  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47 on: October 06, 2012, 08:59:37 pm
Apart from 2008 of course...

The white voter has been especially skittish this year, they were behind Obama, then Romney, then back to Obama and now back to Romney - there's absolutely no reason to assume they can't move again in a month...
8259  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47 on: October 06, 2012, 08:48:56 pm
Wow. It's worse than I thought. Looks like opebo was right: complete collapse with white voters. If it's this bad in Wisconsin, a relatively racially enlightened state, I'd hate to see the numbers in Ohio or Virginia.

Oh just relax lol
8260  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47 on: October 06, 2012, 08:13:32 pm
It's a good number for sure, but if it's true Romney peaked on Friday - he'll have to do really well to maintain momentum.
8261  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47 on: October 06, 2012, 06:47:19 pm
Looking at the internals... Obama's increased his position among Indies, but Romney has consolidated his support among the GOP... and some Dems may have shifted to the undecideds...
8262  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Other Dems Slightly Scared Now? on: October 06, 2012, 06:21:19 pm
All I'm going to say is that Democrats need to expect a few days of pretty ugly numbers...
8263  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47 on: October 06, 2012, 06:09:56 pm
I actually predicted that exact result on another forum! damn, why didn't I do it here.

8264  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If you met Obama or Romney.. on: October 06, 2012, 04:59:48 pm
Honestly...

"Keep fighting Mr President"

"Hello Governor"

Manners cost nothing...
8265  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney on: October 06, 2012, 04:56:54 pm
So we're discrediting the person who correctly predicted 49/50 states and all the Senate races in 2008... because he's gay?

Stay classy dingbats.
Sorry if I seemed as if I was trying to discredit Silver- He's pretty skilled. I was just pointing out what Wikipedia said. I apologize if it seemed that way.

No, that wasn't directed at you.
8266  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Other Dems Slightly Scared Now? on: October 06, 2012, 04:55:29 pm
As Oakie has often said... the natural state for liberals is 'loserism' ... we see adversities and flee thinking "oh, they've won again... gah" and walk away, well before the battle has actually been lost.

I think Obama's supporters need to hold our nerve.
8267  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Other Dems Slightly Scared Now? on: October 06, 2012, 04:36:56 pm
Big swings in all the key states is what I saw.  Like I'm thinking, OH is the state that Obama MUST hold.  It appears that FL, CO, NC, and VA may actually slip away.

I didn't think the debate would move the key states like they appear to have, but the big movement scares me.

As I said before, this really seems like a disproportional and hysterical reaction to the debate... it's possible the polling is a result of Obama losing the expectations game so badly, on top of not being especially good...

But again, we'll need to wait to see...
8268  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 06, 2012, 04:34:10 pm
That's the issue that we'll need time to assess...
8269  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 06, 2012, 04:28:55 pm
So it seems, Friday was a very strong Romney sample on Ras and Gallup, there was a big drop on Rueters, but it looks like Obama might be stabilising on that... and Rand remains positive for the president...

As I said in the other thread, I think we'll get a decent picture of what sort of genuine 'bounce' Romney had until early-Mid next week...
8270  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Other Dems Slightly Scared Now? on: October 06, 2012, 04:25:27 pm
Scared? Not really... concerned? yes.

I'm avoiding being biased to the best that I can, often my work requires me to advocate things I don't support, so I'm relatively good at detaching myself...

I'm not surprised Romney got a bump, but I am surprised at the immediate scale of it we can perceive so far. It strikes me as disproportional to the debate we saw, Obama was certainly unimpressive and Romney 'looked' more stable and confident (accuracy issues aside) ... but I didn't see anything that would have justified such a swing... it's almost a kind of hysterical reaction...

We'll see how things sit mid-week...
8271  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 06, 2012, 10:14:55 am
Alright, I don't think Romney was that great, because he lied left right and especially centre, was a little too aggressive at times - but equally Obama looked bored and irritated and gave Romney WAY WAY too many free passes... But it has nothing to do with substance (regardless of who might have 'won' on that front) it had to do with presentation - and Romney was considered to be more engaged, enthusiastic and confident ... so he won, simple as that.
8272  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney on: October 06, 2012, 09:59:41 am
So we're discrediting the person who correctly predicted 49/50 states and all the Senate races in 2008... because he's gay?

Stay classy dingbats.
8273  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? on: October 06, 2012, 09:57:35 am
Adele, Skyfall
8274  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 06, 2012, 09:50:23 am
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....
8275  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Unemployment drops to 7.8%, labor force up. on: October 06, 2012, 09:23:54 am
He had a congress that was full blue-dogs from 2006 and 2008... Obama had a horrible time with his own party... then those people got wiped out and replaced by a group of people who were literally certifiable...
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