Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2017, 11:35:52 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 326 327 328 329 330 [331] 332 333 334 335 336 ... 767
8251  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:41:27 am
Well Workchoices was what killed the Howard Government and it was in their long-term political interests to see the back of it, and to be seen actively participating in its end.  I was referring to Climate Change, considering it was THE issue that caused Abbott and Minchin to move against Turnbull.

 
8252  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 07:00:14 am
I'm not prepared to say there's no way back - it's more likely than not that they have lost - but it will be close enough that Abbott will have to watch his every step. Plus the Senate will block EVERYTHING he tries to do. He'll have his mandate respected as much as he respected Rudd's.
8253  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you always vote for the same party? on: August 24, 2013, 03:34:10 am
I have voted Liberal in the past, but when it comes to my first preferences, it'll be ALP or Green.
8254  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your savings rate? on: August 24, 2013, 03:24:59 am
It varies a lot. Expenses like healthcare and auto repairs are not predictable. Now that my car is paid for, I have a little more breathing room. If I can squirrel away 10%, and I'm very fortunate that I usually can, I feel pretty good about myself. Notd to the young folks, this gets extremely difficult once you leave your parents' basement. Stay down there as long as possible.

I think this place is a sign that they're not leaving... I don't have a set amount... but it ends up being around 15%... but depending on expenses it could be 30% or none.
8255  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 24, 2013, 03:18:06 am
Like for example, how are the ALP holding their own in the state-wide polling in Queensland, but are really struggling in the individual seat polling? Labor doing better in marginals rather than safe seats doesn't tell the full story here.....

Wouldn't it be the other way round, that Labor is doing better in safe seats than marginals?

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

Isn't polling showing a rather large swing in SA, a mid-size one in Queensland (concentrated in Brisbane; in rural areas/the north of the state it seems they may actually gain due to the KAP's preferences), enough to get 3 seats in Victoria, with only WA holding steady? That's how I'm interpreting this...
Yes it should. Thank you Vosem.

The problem with that theory Vosem, is that in the 29 seats in QLD, the ALP only hold 8 of them... and their biggest margin is Griffith with 8.5%. There aren't enough 'safe-seats' for that explanation to hold water.

Extend that further... to consider the seat-by-seat polling, including the two Newspolls of Griffith and Forde, showing a similar sized swing... mean both the state-level Newspoll is right, and the electorate polls are wrong (although with a MoE near to 5%), vice-versa... or they're all wrong. I mean, you cannot have 8-10% swings in both marginal and their safest seats... and end up with a state-wide swing of 2% TO them.

EDIT: http://election.crikey.com.au/cash-tracker/ - the Libs up to $61 billion in spending promises, without outlining specific savings yet.
8256  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: The Committee Approval...Impeachment Amendment (At Final Vote) on: August 24, 2013, 03:01:50 am
I'll change my vote to aye for the sake of ease... I don't have particularly strong views on this.
8257  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 11:07:29 pm
Based on both polling and what I'm being told -
- outside of Sydney there seems to a swing to the ALP, but in some pockets of Sydney the swing is large, but in the realm of 5-6% and not double-digit by any means.

- QLD is kind of intersting, I've heard nothing to suggest a loss of seats for the ALP, but there will be odd swings in QLD. I would be the least but surprised if the ALP pick one up in FNQ.

- The swing in VIC is moderated - a 3 seat loss is kind if seen as the ceiling, most have given Corrangamite away, Deakin is dodgy, but the ALP is feeling much more comfortable about LaTrobe and Chisolm. The swing is coming off a high, but I'm under the impression the swing will be relatively small.

- SA has been an increasing worry over the past few days. There was a large swing to the Libs, which did start to come back, but the fact that Abbot is back in Adelaide suggests the swing to the Libs might be pushing out again. I can see Wakefield as their only chance for a pick up - but I kind of doubt it happens.

- WA ... is flat out weird, despite the Newspoll, I think it's almost undoubted that there will be a swing to the ALP - the degree to which the candidate for Hasluck is being pushed tells me that this is their likely pick-up.

- NT - I think Solomon could be a surprise - it wouldn't shock me if there's a seat swap - but Snowden has a strong personal vote and support base with Indigenous voters.

- TAS will be intersting - a swing is unavoidable the issue is how big. Bass and Braddon are probably gone... the issue is that the only polling has been done by the robopolls... so I don't think we have a real idea of TAS until the night itself.

- ACT status quo, will probably have the smallest swings - the Senate race will be intersting, but I can't see the Lib primary being low enough to risk the Grens picking it up.
8258  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 09:08:31 pm
Apparently the Griffith push was preplanned, and IMO a feelgood project which should be only attempted after more advances are made in QLD.

Since we're on the subject of leadership, I'm still hoping for Shorten as Labor leader. Looking beyond the horizon, are there any young, dry Liberal econocrats in sight?
Hawke?

Hawke has 'issues'... and would be a problem with leadership. I don't think that's the direction the Libs need to go in. Their current support is based on swing-voters being pissed off at the ALP, not a new coalition base.

They need to moderate on social issues, whilst maintaining their more free-marketish position... they basically need to make consistent in-roads into soft-ALP supporters.
8259  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 08:35:06 pm
I think the upper limit is about 85... but again, I'm hearing a lot more anxiety from the Coalition supporters that they know the election is a lot more complex and closer than polling suggests... and they don't want people to think that the election is in the bag.
8260  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 05:35:57 pm
Is this all basically over then?

It never started.

That's a basically an over-statement. Rudd frankly was pretty disappointing in the first two weeks and handed momentum to Abbott.
8261  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Assembly Election & Two Amendments on: August 23, 2013, 05:33:17 pm
Official Ballot

Northeast Assembly

Five people will be elected to the Assembly.

[6] a Person [butafly] (Light - Maine)
[1] Dr. Cynic (Labor - Pennsylvania)
[2] Earthling (Liberal - Vermont)
[5] Goldwater [Republitarian] (Federalist - Delaware)
[3] Hatman [EarlAW] (Washburnist Socialist Rev. Party - New York)
[4] Matt from VT (Federalist - Vermont)
[ ] None of the above
[ ] Abstain
[ ] Write-in:____________

The Northeast Cabinet Amendment (Proposed Regional Amendment)

[X] Aye
[ ] Nay
[ ] Abstain

Amendment to Article V, Section 2, Clause 5 of the Constitution. (Proposed Federal Amendment)

  • Aye
[ ] Nay
[ ] Abstain
8262  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 23, 2013, 08:06:18 am
I respect Nielsen, so take it seriously, like Galaxy.

8263  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Legislation Introduction Thread on: August 23, 2013, 01:22:23 am
Support for Carers Bill 2013

1. This Bill will amend the Comprehensive Social Security Act (FL 45-10), creating a new Section 6. Therefore the existing section 6 will become section 7 and so forth.

2. This Bill will create section 6 to protect the interests of carers, including the creation of a new income support payment for those who devote their time and energy to care for family and friends who are not able to fully care for themselves.

3. In order to qualify a person must be the primary carer of an individual either under the age of eighteen or covered by a payment under the existing Comprehensive Social Security Act (FL 45-10),. This will ensure income support for those caring for people with medically diagnosed physical or mental disabilities, who has withdrawn themselves from the full-time workforce.

4. A graduated payments system will be dependent on their previous income with a cap of $60,000 per year.
a) less than $18,000 per year - 100% of previous income
b) $18,001 - $30,000 per year - 60% of previous income
c) $30,001 - $45,000 per year - 35% of previous income
d) $45,001 - $60,000 per year - 20% of previous income
e) more $60,001 - qualifies for base carers payment of $750 per month.

5. This will be funded by increasing the existing Social Security Insurance premium to from 6.50% to 6.75% from 1 January 2014.
8264  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Amendment to The Productivity Equalization....Act (Debating) on: August 23, 2013, 12:30:24 am
I may propose a requisite pay increase requirement to compensate for lost wages here, but I'll do that at some point later tonight. I apologize, it's kind of hard to do that kind of number crunching from an iPad :p

So... the Bill would likely lead to some lower wages... so you want to add to make sure that the wage losses are covered?

Aren't you kind of making this increasingly complex, especially since the impacts will be sector by sector.
8265  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 22, 2013, 11:23:38 pm
Yes, another 'people's forum' and that will be it.
8266  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your Australian Political Party Preferences for 2013 Elections on: August 22, 2013, 11:05:06 pm
Fraser

Candidate name: CHURCHILL, Darren Mark
Ballot position: 1
Party ballot name: Australian Democrats

Candidate name: LEE, Elizabeth
Ballot position: 2
Party ballot name: Liberal

Candidate name: LEIGH, Andrew
Ballot position: 3
Party ballot name: Australian Labor Party

Candidate name: ALCAZAR, Freddy Alejandro
Ballot position: 4
Party ballot name: Palmer United Party

Candidate name: ROSS, Jill Elizabeth
Ballot position: 5
Party ballot name: Rise Up Australia Party

Candidate name: HUGGINS, Sam
Ballot position: 6
Party ballot name: Bullet Train For Australia

Candidate name: VERWEY, Adam
Ballot position: 7
Party ballot name: Australian Greens

My #1 will be ALP or Green... and then the other following... then an assortment with Rise Up Australia dead last.
8267  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 22, 2013, 06:16:02 pm
Galaxy are serious pollsters, so they have to be taken seriously, even if I don't exactly buy all of them.
8268  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 22, 2013, 09:02:48 am
The "poll" showing Rudd trailing 48-52 in Griffith was conducted by the same people who showed Beattie trailing 40-60 in Forde!? Well, that's heartening news since we can now be somewhat confident that that's garbage.

And the 60% primary for the LNP in Lindsay
8269  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 22, 2013, 08:18:55 am
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/can-we-believe-the-polls-robopollsters-are-showing-strange-results-20130822-2sep7.html?post_id=1939414_10102823082886080#_=_

Pretty much says everything I've been thinking about robo-polling
8270  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: August 22, 2013, 04:59:30 am
57-43 in NSW?! Give me a break!

It backs up the result of the electorate polls released a few days back.

Considering it doesn't parallel any of the intelligence in the ground...  plus those poll were jokes.

And yes, there's no way the VIC number is right either ... 17% Greens? No.

The data is rubbish.
8271  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Atlasian Senior Care Act (Debating) on: August 22, 2013, 12:14:18 am
Just to clarify... when you say 'hospice' you mean a nursing home, not the way I think of hospice, as in a palliative care facility.
8272  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Super Polling Center: At-Large Senate Poll on: August 21, 2013, 11:15:58 pm
I haven't decided yet.
8273  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: LA-PPP: Hillary +7 on Jindal, competitive with other Rs on: August 21, 2013, 10:43:22 pm
Could you imagine the swing state map for 2016 if it's Christie vs. Clinton?

If it's close nationally, it has the potential to be the most fun close election we've had in quite a while.  It wouldn't be able to match 1976 though.....when there were 20 states where the margin was within 5 points (including CA, NY, PA, IL, and TX)!  Imagine how much fun it would have been to follow the 1976 election if we'd had the internet back then, and a forum like this one.


Oh yeah, the forum would crash .... oh wait.
8274  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What month were you born? on: August 21, 2013, 07:42:24 pm
April (best)
8275  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Amendment to The Productivity Equalization....Act (Debating) on: August 21, 2013, 07:35:30 pm
Hmmm... this doesn't make my decision any easier, or clearer.
Pages: 1 ... 326 327 328 329 330 [331] 332 333 334 335 336 ... 767


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines