it ain't going to pass. In other news, California is a lovely state.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/daily_presidential_tracking_poll__1

Clinton - 40%
Obama - 18%
Edwards - 18%

a fluke?

Romney-Edwards-Paul.... in no particular order...

problem in the case of iowa and new hampshire is that the candidates already have so much invested in those states.....

i'm still of the opinion that Obama makes his big move by coming in a close second or first in New Hampshire and winning South Carolina.... Richardson is lurking in Iowa... someone makes a mistake (and hahahahahahaha, no not Richardson).

Realistically, Giuliani is the Republican's only chance. And as Fox is a Republic propaganda network, they're just looking out for their party.

Murdoch will support whatever candidate from whatever party support his interests. How else could the man go from supporting Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair?

He's become buddy-buddy with Hillary already.

I think it's more that Clinton has realized the importance of being buddy-buddy with him. If she gets favorable, or at least not unfavorable, coverage by FOX and the Murdoch papers, she'll win the election easily.

Think Ed Koch 77 mayoral race.

One thing people always forget is that state parties DO make a difference in national elections. They provide the organization..... so in a close race I suspect that Clinton would do better in Arkansas than in Missouri....

shucks i could have made a killing buy Romney....

He's only trading at 26–27.  I think there's still room to make money there.

I know there is... Smart people would trade for him, Huckabee, Richardson, and Biden... And its getting a little crazy with Hillary, so Obama as well.

Why Biden? The rest I can see, but Biden hasn't managed to make an impact anywhere with anyone, and there's no indication that he will (and thus make his price go up). Richardson polls poorly nationwide but reasonably well in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Biden can't even say that.

it might not work right now, but it will in the long term....

shucks i could have made a killing buy Romney....

He's only trading at 26–27.  I think there's still room to make money there.

I know there is... Smart people would trade for him, Huckabee, Richardson, and Biden... And its getting a little crazy with Hillary, so Obama as well.

haha

doesn't huckabee still do better than Romney?

Either way, people dislike hillary, but seem willing to put their trust into a known commodity than risk it on a "fresh". Even if they otherwise.....

something like a Giuliani-Edwards..... could open states up to either side.....

1. Nunn has refused to run for VP
2. Paul and Dobbs have almost nothing in common.

untrue.... I know one thing they have in common.

Every state is up for grabs, at least until they pick the nominees.

Just my humble opinion.

look at the margins..... Surveyusa was terribly off in Virginia. And i'm not convinced...

I'll take Rasmussen and Mason Dixon. Even if dixon choked in Tenn last year.

That said surveyusa better than ARG or Zogby.

Here is the Luntz focus group. Obama won in a landslide according to them. I wonder if he will at least get a bump in Iowa from this debate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vlog/2007/08/luntz_focus_group_obama_won.html

wasn't luntz banished by NBC due to pressure from liberal groups due to his previous work with Republican candidates? Err rather, that he did so while also doing non-partisan work, and not notifying the public. And thus getting censured by some polling board?

shucks i could have made a killing buy Romney....

Two surprise me, Kentucky and Virginia (more Kentucky).

But alas, its summer polling from surveyusa.

The truth is that people use his Mormonism as an excuse to not like him, when in reality, they don't like him because he's too slick and smooth. I couldn't possible get close to the guy.... U know Huckabee took a taxi from Penn (maybe it was grand central?) Station without any entourage to a spot in Manhattan for an interview. It's not that Romney is rich or a Mormon, its that he seems out of touch.

[Democrats]

Another Democratic debate. Obama drops a couple of points. Richardson has a huge drop (although his bid/ask are much higher).

Democrats
Clinton 62.8
Obama 20.6
Gore 8.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1 (305 bids)



Republicans
Giuliani 36.2
Romney 23.4
Thompson 23.0
McCain 6.3
Paul 4.2
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.4
Hagel 0.8
Rice 0.7
Brownback 0.2
J. Bush 0.1 (633 bids)
Tancredo 0.1 (629 bids)

You know in the beginning I really thought that she wouldn't make it.... there are still 4+ months to go, but I haven't even seen a dent yet.

Huckabee is a steal 3.4.... Paul is a ripoff at the price he's at. Speak to weakness of Brownback with him .2. Romney is a good buy at 23.4.... Thompson is a ripoff. McCain seems fair.

Dodd is quickly turning into a non-factor..... a blip on the radar screen if u will.

Biden has a better chance.

Why?  Hillary has the nomination locked up.

lol...okay friend. We still have well over four months before any voting occurs and even if Rasmussen was only testing people he thought were very likely to get the nomination, why is he still testing McCain?

I'm going to agree, even if I think Clinton will get the nod.

Biden breaking out of the pack in Iowa? How so? It seems like Richardson is the one breaking into the top tier.

The one "going" to break out..... the surprise....

Biden at least isn't at zero like Dodd, who despite his fundraising (or transferring), looks increasingly like Bob Graham.

In more important news, she's now got pretty much the whole democratic establishment behind in arkansas (minus Lincoln who i suspect is playing for a VP spot).... and while the endorsements themselves probably don't mean much, they do signal that Clinton is an acceptable commodity in Arkansas. Which makes those polls seem perhaps plausible?

So who did well? Who bombed? Anyone know if it is airing again tonight?

no one bombed from I have read... It was an "august" debate. Biden and Richardson did best. They say Biden got the better half of the iraq arguement with Richardson. Chuck Todd feels that it maybe Biden breaking out of the pack in Iowa.... we'll see.

Overall, seems like a "nothing" debate.