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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: December 05, 2012, 02:52:58 am
Barack Obama wins Fresno county. He also passes Romney by over 3 million votes in California. Check out the latest return from Fresno County. Santa Cruz county also made a final update.

Fresno County:

http://www.co.fresno.ca.us/DepartmentPage.aspx?id=20507
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: November 30, 2012, 03:50:59 pm
Los Angeles is almost done with their counting. I am not sure if today will be their last release.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: November 30, 2012, 01:26:52 pm
Are Ohio results now final?
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Florida, Florida...Who will win? Please post vote updates, news, etc. on: November 08, 2012, 10:36:54 am
Thanks Tender. I hope Obama pulls it off. Big bragging rights.
5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Florida, Florida...Who will win? Please post vote updates, news, etc. on: November 08, 2012, 10:33:02 am
So, Obama is leading there and 9 counties I believe are still counting votes. Any updates?

I think it is likely that Obama will win Florida. I heard 6/9 counties who are still counting votes are Obama counties.
6  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Rasmussen: Obama and Romney Close in Virginia on: November 05, 2012, 10:13:15 am
That's interesting, not with the Hispanics I talk to : )
7  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Rasmussen: Obama and Romney Close in Virginia on: November 05, 2012, 10:05:12 am
This is very interesting...comparing his final poll to the one he did on October 24th...

On October 24th, whites went 65-34 for Romney,Blacks  91-8 Obama and 59-39 other race (latino and asian) for Obama.

On his new poll which has Romney still leading, check this out:

Whites go for Romney 63-35 Blacks 97-3 for Obama, and other races 49-45 for Romney. That is a huge switch for Latinos and Asians to make in one week.

I really think it is deadlocked there at 49-49 with a slight edge to Obama. If he gets 36% of whites, 97% of blacks, and somewhere around 56% of other races, he wins.

8  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama will lose the election on: November 05, 2012, 02:58:10 am
I don't know what to think anymore. Polls point to an Obama win yet I get the sense that Republicans will have a higher than expected turnout in Ohio and Colorado. Before I was sure Obama would lose, now, I don't know what will happen.
9  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predict the final RCP average on Election Day. on: November 05, 2012, 02:52:33 am
We will be finding out soon what the final tally will be. Right now is Obama by 0.5%
10  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA-Field Poll: Obama+15 on: November 03, 2012, 01:32:15 am
link does not work
11  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WeAskAmerica OH, VA, and WI on: November 02, 2012, 03:38:20 pm
I find that picture of Romney to be very offensive.
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mason-Dixon won't poll FL any longer, says Romney has it "already won" on: October 31, 2012, 01:46:46 am
I find it to be an outrageous comment from a pollster. It doesn't matter who is leading.  Did Mason-Dixon said the same things when Obama was leading in Florida in 2008? Did they make such ridiculous statements? What about 2004, did they say the same thing about Kerry? What is the motivation here? Could it be a political motivation? Trying to set a narrative? If Obama wins Florida or Virginia, then what does that say about Suffolk and Mason-Dixon. Why are they not saying the same about Ohio? I find it wrong for them to make such statements.
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / How to deal with a Romney win-- on: October 24, 2012, 11:49:02 pm
So, I am predicting that Romney will win, narrowly. It will be a very, very close contest and we'll go into the night until he is declared the winner. So, my question for Democrats is, what will you do or think to make yourself feel better? I know an election loss can be hard and will be hard for some.

For me, I'll be happy that Democrats will retain the Senate. There will be at least some resistance to Romney's agenda. Harry Reid will throw some punches and I really hope Democrats keep the line against him.  I feel that Romney will be a one term president. I don't have any high hopes about him or his agenda. I also think he will end up angering his base and that will surely be fun to watch.

Also, I will be more than happy to blame Romney and Republicans for the continued economic problems, just like what they did to Obama. If things get worse, we'll have a Democratic house in 2014 and take Romney out in 2016.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Big Population States Predictions Top 7 California, Fla, Texas, NY, PA, Ill, OH on: October 24, 2012, 11:36:17 pm
I would like to see Republican's predictions.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Big Population States Predictions Top 7 California, Fla, Texas, NY, PA, Ill, OH on: October 24, 2012, 10:05:58 pm
Make your predictions for the following states:

California
Florida
Texas
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio

My predictions:
California Obama 57%, Romney 42%
Florida Romney 52% Obama 48%
Texas Romney 58% Obama 41%
New York Obama 60%, Romney 39%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% Romney 47%
Illinois Obama 56%, Romney 43%
Ohio Romney 50% Obama 49%

By the way, I am predicting Romney wins popular vote 50-49%.
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: October 05, 2012, 12:22:56 pm
If Romney doesn't show at least a 3point bounce out of the debate then I feel this election is well over with. I mean come on. More than 67 million americans watch the debate and you destroyed Obama at the debate and the best you can do is less than 3 points? I may be too premature here. But after what I saw, I was ready to see huge jumps. Why isn't it happening? What is going on here? On CNN poll of undecided colorado voters, they overwhelmingly gave the win to Romney. Yet when asked who had made up their minds, 8 went for Romney and 8 went for Obama. This is crazy. Now the expectations are set that Romney will win the next debate, if Obama comes swinging, we will be back where we were at, a lead for Obama by 2%.

This electorate is so polarized. If by next week, Obama still leading, the pundits at Fox will be having a major fit.
17  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: This Is What A "Check" Looks Like on: October 03, 2012, 10:28:40 pm
So what happens if the polls continue showing Obama leading? Does that mean there's nothing that Romney can do to change the race? I do see the race tightening. We may see a division of polls, some showing Obama leading by 2 and some Romney by 2.
18  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Iowa: New Des Moines Register Poll to be released today at 7pm Iowa time on: September 29, 2012, 12:46:04 am
48-47 Romney
19  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predict the final RCP average on Election Day. on: September 28, 2012, 01:50:01 am
Romney 49
Obama 48
20  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / First Debate Predictions on what Romney/Obama will say.. on: September 21, 2012, 02:34:38 am
The first debate on October 2nd will be very important. I am expecting Romney to address Obama and say "You have failed. It is time for you to take responsibility." What should Obama answer?

I am expecting Romney to hit Obama hard, very hard. I'm wondering if that would backfire. During the Republican debates, he looked odd when attacking, but I'm sure hard core republicans will love the red meat.

I hope Obama is ready to counter punch.

So what do you guys expect to see/hear from both of them?

I'm also wondering what types of questions will be asked and whether Obama will be pressed more so than Romney by the moderator.

Thoughts?

What could be the "here you again" moment?
21  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Iowa-Rasmussen: Romney leading on: September 20, 2012, 03:00:13 pm
I do see Romney taking Iowa.
22  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: Rasmussen - Romney 48%, Obama 45% on: September 20, 2012, 02:01:53 am
interesting fact..about the internals...Obama leads whites by 2%, yet trails Romney by 3. Blacks vote 100% for Romney and 70% of other races prefer Romney to Obama 11%.  It is likely that Obama is really leading the state by 4.
23  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama will lose the election on: September 12, 2012, 03:46:12 am
I still feel Obama will lose the election. I know they had a more successful convention. However, the turnout he needs will not be there on Nov 6th. He will lose narrowly. In some states, he will lose by less than 1%. I think undecided voters will break for Romney 2-1.
24  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN Poll of LV's (post-DNC) Obama: 52 % Romney: 46 % on: September 10, 2012, 03:13:45 pm
I wonder who else will release polls this week..ABC NEWS, CBS/NY Times?

CBS/NY Times specifically has been showing a much tighter race. I'm wondering what they'll show.

I'm sure there are lots of polls coming this week.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Enjoy this Romney campaign polling propaganda memo on: September 10, 2012, 02:50:55 pm
A bad sign that they had to put this out...their internals aren't looking that great right now. Time to call Karl Rove
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