CNN is about to release their poll of LV...it's great to see Republicans jump up and down on a poll that shows Obama leading : )

If Obama does indeed win and Rasmussen ends up being one of the few to predict a Romney +3-4 point win then that would be pretty laughable.

Even in 2010, we had a split electorate. I hardly doubt Republicans will be +4 on election day when they couldnt even accomplish that during their best year in a long time during a midterm election with a whiter older electorate.

I am doing a lot better. My family is also doing better than four years ago.

Rasmussen Reports just reported a +4 Republican edge among adult partisan trends. It's interesting how the timing of course will correlate with the end of RNC. With the adjustment that they will show on partisan differences, it won't surprise me that Romney will be ahead +5-8 in the next few days.

Check out the article: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

I'm wondering if other polls are finding that there are more adults classifying themselves as Republicans than Democrats, especially among adults, not even registered voters or likely voters. A +4 among adults, could easily be a +6 among registered voters and a +8 among likely voters.

I thought Ryan did better. Romney speech was boring. I'm not sure how much of a bounce he's gonna get. Likely 2-3pts and will be back to even by the end of next week.

It would be helpful if on the first page a lineup was given for the four days of the convention.

So who's speaking when?

It is so interesting mix of conflicting feelings...optimistic, depressed, cheerful, dissapointed...who knew he went from no emotions to a complete mess of emotions.

Tissues please

Oh no, another Boehner..

im bored already

I have been following the race closely and I have concluded that Romney will win the election unless some dramatic event unfolds and painting him as a rich plutocrat who doesn't relate to you will simply not cut it.

There is a lot of job anxiety out there and the economy headlines is not what Obama would like to see. I think Romney through the debates and the convention will convince enough swing voters to vote for him in states like Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Florida will vote by 3-4% for Romney. I see Obama holding Nevada and Virginia.  In the next few days we will see Romney leading Obama by 3% in LV models and even after the Obama convention, I don't see Obama getting much of a bump. The debates will likely seal Obama's fate and the election will finally settle at 50.5-49% for Romney.

There is not much enthusiasm for Obama. Even Obama supporters know that. Turnout will benefit Republicans in swing states and it will be enough to overcome Obama's ground game. Voter registration is lacking and the Obama campaign knows that as well.

I was hoping Obama would have switched Biden for Clinton as that would have given Democrats the enthusiasm needed to go out and vote for Obama. Democrats dislike Romney but wouldn't say they hate him as much as Bush.  I will still vote for Obama and hope that things turn around. But the fact is: He had four years and people don't really see much improvement in their lives. They are willing to give Romney a chance but I also think they won't much have much patience for him either. I don't personally see him doing much for this country. I also think he will be a one term president. It won't take long for people to dislike him as they did to Bush. Even now, people don't particularly like him.

It makes me think whether Democrats should have chosen Clinton instead. : )

I agree with the original poster. Obama is in trouble. That is why he is spending a lot of money defining Romney during the summer. I just had a meeting with over 10 of my college friends who were hardcore Obama fans during 2008 and there was a lot of dissapointment in his performance. He hasn't been great. Period. We know that. Most said they will vote for him but there was some resistance to considering voting for him. If some of those that are dissapointed decide to stay home, Romney wins. There is also a danger for Republicans who think the 47% is what he will get on election day. Many undecided voters and former Obama voters dislike Romney, and they seem to be already saying some of the things Obama wants them to believe, "he cares only for the rich, etc" they may be more likely to vote for Obama on election day as opposed to staying home.

This election really hinges on whether Obama can mobilize and re-energize a substantial amount of people who voted for him (or are more likely to vote for him) who are between 18-39. Republicans should be concerned about this. Only about 4055% of this group are very energized and following the election closely, compared to 70-80% of those over 50. After the conventions, we will be able to better assess what success he is having with this group. I actually think the entertainment industry can assist Obama with this, but I don't know how involved celebrities will be this year compared to 2008. I know Oprah said she won't be as involved.

Obama will likely need an electorate that is D+3 to win. If he is below that, he will likely lose. I think he will lose independents by around 5%.

I think the election will be very close. I really foresee a 49-49 election. It will come down to those swing states. He may even lose the popular vote slightly and win the election. The independents in those swings states are somewhat different than the independents in the south who are strongly against Obama.

The poll was conducted July 5th-15th.

Include percentage breakdown:

My prediction:
Obama 49%, Romney 49%

The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I

2012---Let me know where you disagree. This is what I think the results will be. After Labor Day, I will update my predictions. I'm predicting an Obama win 50-49%

States   Romney   Obama
Alabama   64%   35%
Alaska   62%   37%
Arizona   54%   45%
Arkansas   59%   37%
California   41%   58%
Colorado   49%   50%
Connecticut   43%   56%
Delaware   41%   57%
DC   9%   91%
Florida   53%   46%
Georgia   54%   45%
Hawaii   30%   69%
Idaho   69%   31%
Illinois   43%   56%
Indiana   58%   41%
Iowa   48%   51%
Kansas   62%   36%
Kentucky   59%   39%
Lousiana   61%   38%
Maine   44%   54%
Maryland   40%   58%
Massachusetts   39%   60%
Michigan   44%   55%
Minnesota   46%   53%
Mississippi   54%   44%
Missouri   53%   46%
Montana   54%   45%
Nebraska   60%   38%
Nevada   49%   51%
New Hampshire   48%   51%
New Jersey   43%   56%
New Mexico   45%   54%
New York   37%   62%
North Carolina   51%   49%
North Dakota   62%   35%
Ohio   49%   51%
Oklahoma   66%   33%
Oregon   45%   54%
Pennsylvania   48%   52%
Rhode Island   40%   59%
South Carolina   56%   43%
South Dakota   60%   39%
Tennessee   58%   40%
Texas   54%   46%
Utah   74%   24%
Vermont   39%   60%
Virginia   49%   51%
Washington   44%   55%
West Virginia   57%   41%
Wisconsin   47%   52%
Wyoming   62%   37%

This country has been very divided since the year 2000. We are in the middle of an ideological struggle that no side is winning. I feel that the 2012 election is the continuation of how divided this country has been since the year 2000. And the result will be a very close race. At the end, it's hard to predict what will happen. All I can I say is, I wouldn't be surprised with a 49-49 popular vote or 50-49 either way. No candidate will win by more than 4%. That's my guess.

I think it will be 50-49% Obama.

For Obama to win, black turnout has to above 20%?

The popular vote will likely be +/- 2 million difference between Obama and Romney.

I feel that it is likely for Obama to win narrowly the states of Iowa, Nevada, NM, CO, WI, and PA.

However, I think he will lose New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, NC and Indiana.

The race will come down to Virginia. We may see an election in which Romney wins by 270-268. If Obama wins re-election with a Virginia win, it will be 281-257.

Will 2012 be a 270-268 Romney win or a 281-257 Obama win?

I really do believe it will be this close.

Newt B-
Santorum B-
Romney C
Paul C-

The Republican establishment set him up for failure...Karl Rove to be blamed, others.

yAY!

Boring debate.  Who's moderating CNN on Thursday? I hope is John King again.