This early in the process, I can only look at past results. States that voted Republican 4 out of the past 5 elections are worth 207 electoral votes. I'm calling this Bush's base. States he carried in 2000 are currently worth 278 - a razor thin victory. Add states that he lost by less than 5% brings him to 338. That's what I think he'll need to be considered a solid victory. States he lost in '00 where I think he's got the best shot are MN, IA, PA and NM.
My home state of MN hasn't voted Republican in a long time, but in every case there was a Minnesotan on the ballot or there was a strong Democratic
candidate. It was VERY close in '84 and '00. A solid effort by Bush - and his volunteers - in '04 will give him the state. Republicans regularily win state-wide elections here, but it's usually close - Senate and Governor in 2002.
With no Senate or Governor race, and no competative House races this year, Minnesota is going to be all about turn-out.