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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 08:59:58 am
Why was the swing in Spillett so weak compared to elsewhere?

Also Labor to sweep Alice Springs? Has that ever happened before?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 05:34:40 am
Btw, does anyone have a map or at least data on electorates in the NT by % Aboriginal?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 05:24:09 am
These results are hilarious
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 20, 2016, 10:12:07 am
I wonder what a correlation coefficient between Remain-Leave margin and Labour-Tory margin in England (obviously Scotland would skew it quite a bit) would look like. From this map, I don't really see a relationship either way, but there might be one even if it's not obvious.

I didn't do this for England but in AAD I posted charts for the correlation between support for Scottish Independence and Welsh Autonomy (2011 and 1997) and 2016 remain. In all calculations the correlation was basically zero - and literally zero for 2014 Yes and 2016 Remain.

However, for Northern Ireland there was an extremely strong negative correlation between voting for self-declared Unionists in the 2016 Assembly elections and voting for Remain (r=-0.95), and the reverse for the Nationalists (r=0.80).
5  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Opinion on 'burkini' ban? on: August 20, 2016, 08:33:16 am
I see the male champions of Womenhood are out in force wanting the state to mandate what women can and can't wear.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ask Me Anything-- (Not So) Devout Centrist on: August 19, 2016, 07:04:45 pm
Why is it that when I saw the OP my first reaction was "Sad!" ?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 19, 2016, 06:28:16 pm
Some of those Hanretty figures are wrong from what we now about ward data. Sutton Coldfield voted leave, for example, but he has it voting remain.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12) on: August 12, 2016, 01:23:04 pm
A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?
9  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What is the most destructive force on the right? on: August 04, 2016, 05:04:45 pm
Themselves, obviously.

10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern: "End the EU accession talks with Turkey" on: August 04, 2016, 05:02:56 pm
I too oppose the idea of the Republic of Sealand joining the Eurasian Economic Union, and talks on this should stop.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What % will Trump get in Hawaii? on: August 03, 2016, 07:19:35 pm
It was 24.7% White in the last census (2010) - just slightly above the numbers for 'Mixed Race' (23.6%) and well below Asian (38.6%). In 2011 only 14.5% were to two Non-Hispanic White parents.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory? on: August 03, 2016, 05:55:36 pm
Also, is anything east of the Urals (in Russia) considered Siberia? I thought it was only the part in the Arctic Circle.

Colloquially speaking, yes. Although technically speaking it is this:



That is the Siberian Federal District - one of eight federal districts in Russia. The one to the east of Siberia is the 'Far East' Federal District, and 'Far East' is a term I've seen Russia experts instead of Siberia for at least some of that region. Although many parts of the Far East, Sakha included, and also parts of the 'Ural District' (which is the one to the west of Siberia) are considered historically part of Siberia, the federal districts being only recent political creations. Nowt to do with the Arctic circle though, However the Arctic-Pacific drainage basin watershed being used as the border between Siberia and the Far Eastern district.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory? on: August 03, 2016, 08:56:29 am
Worth noting that those areas have tiny populations in general - The Sakha Republic is larger than all but seven independent states yet its population is smaller than that of Cyprus.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory? on: July 31, 2016, 11:10:18 pm
Not quite the same, is it though?
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory? on: July 31, 2016, 11:02:36 pm
Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?
If you exclude the ISIS Caliphate's "annexation" of various Syrian and Iraqi territory, then Yes, I think that you are correct in regards to this.

Oh I should added 'from Internationally recognized states'

That isn't really a done thing anymore. And only powerful states would get away with it (and would be more inclined to impose puppets than actual annexation anyway).
Were both Indonesia and Morocco powerful states back in 1975, though?

Both of those annexations only make 'sense' in the post-colonial and Cold War context which no longer is really a factor in 2016.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The future of Ukraine on: July 31, 2016, 10:37:46 pm
Anti-immigration sentiment in Europe is definitely far stronger against Muslims than against Eastern Europeans, 'stealing jobs' or not (which I tend to think is an overrated element of the current anti-immigrant zeitgeist fwiw). Which isn't to say everyone would welcome the Ukraine into the EU with open arms.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory? on: July 31, 2016, 09:54:34 pm
That isn't really a done thing anymore. And only powerful states would get away with it (and would be more inclined to impose puppets than actual annexation anyway).

Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?
18  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: What kind of atheist are you? on: July 31, 2016, 09:38:01 pm
   1.   Jeremy Bentham (100%)            More Info
   2.   Epicureans (79%)            More Info
   3.   Immanuel Kant (79%)            More Info
   4.   Jean-Paul Sartre (78%)            More Info
   5.   John Stuart Mill (69%)            More Info
   6.   Aristotle (62%)            More Info
   7.   Nel Noddings (62%)            More Info
   8.   Thomas Hobbes (59%)            More Info
   9.   Stoics (57%)            More Info
   10.   Thomas Aquinas (57%)            More Info
   11.   Ayn Rand (49%)            More Info
   12.   Benedictus Spinoza (49%)            More Info
   13.   William of Ockham (47%)            More Info
   14.   Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche (44%)            More Info
   15.   David Hume (40%)            More Info
   16.   Prescriptivism (37%)            More Info
   17.   Plato (28%)            More Info
   18.   Cynics (24%)            More Info
   19.   William James (23%)         
   20.   St. Augustine (10%)            More Info
   21.   Jean-Jacques Rousseau (0%)

Ok, I'm really not sure about the top choice, but the bottom choice (y).
19  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How do you pronounce "Nietzsche?" on: July 31, 2016, 04:31:08 pm
I've used both pronounciation #2 and #4.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / The EU: Further possibilities for enlargement on: July 31, 2016, 11:36:57 am
Cross Post from AAD

Given that we've spent over a month talking about the mechanics of leaving the EU, we should now talk about enlargement again - after all, that has been one of the major themes of the EU throughout its history. The UK is the first member state to vote to leave the union.

I've created the above poll to discuss and bring out ideas about who should be allowed to be members and why - some of those lists are current candidate states, others are possible in the future and others still are a lot more outlandish. For this poll I have made a few assumptions - which in reality aren't good ones, but this is a thought experiment:

- All these countries want to be members (lol)
- All the respective members will meet the bare minimum requirements of membership (for some countries irl that would be a huge task)
- That this would mean minimal changes to the structure of the EU (which is unlikely irl) with each state having a commissioner, and rules in the Parliament and the Council going unchanged.

Discuss.

I have added some more poll options from the AAD thread. For the lulz.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: All about yourself! on: July 30, 2016, 11:12:24 pm
PS: get some psychiatric help before you get your balls removed. Really.
I'm already working on it! Smiley

To be clear, ideally this should end in you not having your balls removed. Thanks.
You really want me to send you a PM, don't you? Indeed, in my PM, I'll explain why exactly it is extremely unlikely that I will ever change my mind in regards to this.

Women are nowhere near as terrifying as you think they are.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hypothetical Referendum on the status of Northern Ireland on: July 30, 2016, 10:18:02 am
Also important - attitudes to a United Ireland in the south

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hypothetical Referendum on the status of Northern Ireland on: July 27, 2016, 05:09:03 pm
Relevant

24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 25, 2016, 01:29:47 pm
It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.
Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.

Yes, but it's not that long ago when Labor could win Grey, Kennedy or Kalgoorlie (as it was then). Now those are impossible pipe dreams...

Am I right in thinking that apart from Lingiari, the largest ALP seat by size is Eden-Monaro? That's not very large by Australian standards.
25  General Politics / Economics / Re: The Brexit Thread on: July 24, 2016, 07:51:21 pm
Ok did some research - approximately to pay back the lost CAP payments out of its own coffers, the NI assembly would have to re-allocate between 3-3.5% of the entire Stormont budget to do so. Good Luck...

EDIT: Actually more once you consider a significant proportion of NI's budget comes from the EU.
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