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1  General Politics / Economics / Re: The Brexit Thread on: July 24, 2016, 07:51:21 pm
Ok did some research - approximately to pay back the lost CAP payments out of its own coffers, the NI assembly would have to re-allocate between 3-3.5% of the entire Stormont budget to do so. Good Luck...

EDIT: Actually more once you consider a significant proportion of NI's budget comes from the EU.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 23, 2016, 06:38:37 pm
It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Major terror attack/shooting in Munich on: July 22, 2016, 08:02:42 pm
Also the fact that he had dual nationality suggests that it is likely that he had one German parent.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hypothetical Referendum on the status of Northern Ireland on: July 20, 2016, 06:05:23 pm
Gully is right that all of this is conditional to a massive extent on whatever happens in Scotland.

That and the post-Brexit situation completely f***ing up large parts of the NI economy (although of course, such a f***-up would inflict considerable collateral damage on the parts of the RoI economy that actually do things other than play around with tax leverage).

Those are connected, as if there is a Norway-style deal little will change from the perspective of the RoI and little for Scotland either and a good portion of the Scottish leave vote would accept that (fishing and farming communities seem to be a big element behind it) and perhaps Scotland would stay in the UK, oh God knows how the kippers would react - it would be such an obvious stitch-up (I say 'little' would change as I believe there are still some EFTA-EU compliance issues for certain goods even within the EEA). 'Brexit Max' otoh with full barriers and tariffs though would be extremely bad and it is hard to see how NI would cope or how Scotland could handle it. The nightmare scenario is an Independent Scotland in the single market and England and Wales outside it, meaning trade barriers on the border of England and Scotland and between Northern Ireland and Scotland. Presumably to connect with their own country ferries from NI would to arrive in Liverpool as opposed to Stranraer or Troon (or is there any ports further north in England than that, could Barrow play this role?)

Regardless of the post-Brexit deal, sectors of the two economies are now going to be less integrated and in more competition with each other than before. Unless the NI assembly funds agriculture to at least the levels of the CAP, NI agriculture is going lose significant competitiveness to the RoI in a patch where at least in this area they were equal. At the very least, there will be demands made - even more so than before - to expand the fiscal powers of the NI assembly (although in a way that doesn't mean effective independence, or else they will bankrupt themselves).
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Hypothetical Referendum on the status of Northern Ireland on: July 19, 2016, 01:00:40 pm
While this is still an unlikely possibility it has moved in recent weeks from the purely hypothetical to the plausible. A day after the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, Martin McGuinness (Deputy First Minister and Leader of Sinn Fein in the NI assembly) called for a 'border poll'. A 'border poll' is the term used in Ireland to describe a referendum on NI's political status: either status quo (member of the UK) or as part of a united Irish republic. Now the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), after initially rubbishing the idea, has suggested, with some hedging of words, that such a poll might be take place in the future. The right of Northern Ireland is hold such a referendum is guaranteed under the Good Friday Agreement. Needless to say though, the entire Unionist establishment is against such a poll, most of which campaigned for a Leave vote in the referendum three weeks ago.

I, for one, can't imagine such a poll taking place until around 2020 and then only in the event of Scottish Independence, as that would make the situation of NI within the UK even more anomalous than it is already and put into huge question the status of NI in the UK. In any future trade negotiation with any other country (assuming the UK leaves the single market and does not join the EEA), NI's priorities (mostly agriculture and engineering, especially aeronautics) are going to be way down the list, and would conflict with the primary interests of the rest of the UK. As it is, Northern Ireland is basically a state dependent economy surviving on UK government grants. How generous will these be in the future, especially now that they've lost EU funding?





However, if I were *shudder* a hardline Unionist I would want such a poll sooner rather than later, for reasons that this chart (from 2014) will demonstrate



As for the result of any poll, that is clear. Unless things go completely wrong, Northern Ireland will vote to stay in the UK. The amount of Protestants who would vote for a United Ireland is negligible and many Catholics, despite everything, will vote to stay although polling regularly disputes on how many. Unification might mean giving up UK public services like the NHS to their inferior Irish equivalents (and in the long run, I'm highly dubious as to whether Northern Catholics would like being run from Dublin). However, such a result would still leave constitutional ambiguities about Northern Ireland's status, especially if it is close. As for how the results map would look like, something extremely close to this:



Although not precisely as the councils shown in this 2011 census religious demographics map (Red Protestant, Blue Catholics) have since been abolished and replaced by larger 'supercouncils'.

I might dwell this more on another post but unification would mean big changes to the Republic as much as to the North. Adding the North to the Republic would increase the population by 40% and as I noted earlier would add very different public sector infrastructure - the creatures of the post-war welfare state - to the Republic. Laws and social attitudes have diverged significantly since partition was established under the Government of Ireland Act in 1920. The Republic, despite its prohibition on Abortion, is the more liberal of the two states, less religious, and the more prosperous - a complete reverse of the situation in times past. Unification would inevitably lead to mass constitutional change in the Republic, possibly leading to a new constitution all together and possibly some kind of federalism. All these issues would have to be addressed by the government of the Republic before any border poll was held. Note that in all probability the Republic itself would have to hold a referendum on the North joining, although I can't imagine in any scenario that if the North were somehow vote to join that such a referendum were rejected despite mumblings on the cost of reunification and having to put up with bloody loyalists, who would not just shut up in a United Ireland.

In recent years, Northern Ireland's economy strategy has been based in hope that Westminster would devolve tax powers to the Stormont Assembly so to compete with the Republic for Foreign Direct Investment (with the Republic low rate of Corporation Tax - 12.5% - compared to the much higher UK wide rate being a source of contention). However, outside of the single market, it is hard to see how Northern Ireland can make itself more attractive to FDI by simply mimicking the Republic. Either it would have to cut taxes much harder and thus undercut what it is left of its fiscal independence and become a tax haven (NI at the moment has only a minimal financial services sector, purely for domestic use). Similarly outside of the CAP NI Agriculture will have to seek protection from the Stormont Assembly (which has the power to do so) but surely could not unless Stormont's fiscal powers were expanded significantly, otherwise it could face open global competition while Southern agriculture remains under the CAP's barriers. These are major issues for the North's macroeconomy that will need to be resolved under any Brexit deal, and would certainly influence the nature of any vote should it come after such a deal.

There are also a few questions to add:
1) How many people will die in such a campaign? (Very good chance the answer is not 'zero')
2) What positions will the various parties in the Republic take? Would they publish very different 'unification' deals?
3) Mostly importantly, how would such a poll be called, and would sort of agreement would have to take place for it happen? Again, if I were a Unionist, I'd want this sooner than later.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 18, 2016, 03:50:10 pm
Waltham Forest (Doesn't include postals)

Cann Hall 61% Remain
Leyton 60.3% Remain
Leytonstone 66.8% Remain
Cathall 59.5% Remain
Grove Green 66.5% Remain
Forest 61.3% Remain

(Leyton and Wanstead: 62.9% Remain)

Hale End and Highams Park 55% Remain
Endlebury 56% Leave
Hatch Lane 55.1% Leave
Chingford Green 55.3% Leave
Larkswood 55.8% Leave
Valley 54.2% Leave

(Chingford and Wood Green: 53.5% Leave)

Wood Street 67.1% Remain
High Street 69.1% Remain
William Morris 69.4% Remain
Higham Hill 59.9% Remain
Markhouse 68.1% Remain
Hoe Street 71.3% Remain
Lea Bridge 63.4% Remain
Chapel End 61.9% Remain

(Walthamstow: 66.51% Remain)
7  General Politics / Economics / Re: The Brexit Thread on: July 17, 2016, 02:13:06 pm
Al has also alerted me that agriculture is a devolved responsibility in the UK, so any post-CAP arrangement will be left to the four individual governments with the House of Commons representing England. It's quite plausible therefore to imagine a situation where farmers in England aren't subsidized at all, while those are in Wales and Northern Ireland are (Don't know about Scotland). This obviously would have problematic implications for the UK.

And it would have an effect on the budgets of the devolved administrations. The CAP payments to Scottish farmers was about 620 million in 2015. Politically they would be in a stronger position to ask for that 'from Westminster' more than the other nations given the result of the referendum.

As you hint though, being in the EU was in many ways a bizarre form of 'protectionism' for British industry and trade. Developing markets can now 'dump' disproportionately in the UK off the back of trade deals while the net benefit to the UK would be less tangible for the consumer or the worker.

Presumably further demands will be made by the devolved parliaments (more than they are already, that is) to expand their fiscal capabilities and devolve certain tax issues. As you said, in the cases of Scotland (even excluding the option of independence) and Northern Ireland given the referendum result, this will become difficult for Westminster to avoid.
8  General Politics / Economics / The Brexit Thread on: July 17, 2016, 10:41:46 am
It's been over three weeks now but because I'm that kind of nerd and because it involves the country I'm closest to other than my own home, I'm still mulling over the result of the referendum and its implications. Hopefully now that we are somewhat away from THE PANIC of the first few post-June 23rd days, there is room to discuss it more calmly and with greater insight. I think up till now far too much has been discussed about the political implications (the horse race is the least important thing, guys) and little about the economic implications and what it might mean for trade. As we have one or two posters who are quite knowledgeable on these issues, I've decided to post here something I wrote on our sister forum, for your interests. This represents my understanding of the situation - anyone who knows more please correct me or elaborate. I really want to understand here, not make hot takes (ok, some hot takes... see the final sentence).

Quote
Ok I just want to add yet another point about Brexit. This will probably not be the last.

Looking around at the pro-Brexit politicians and pro-Brexit commentators there is a fundamental ability to grasp what a 'trade deal' is. Yes, there is recognition that free trade agreements regularly take many years but that's not what I'm referring to. It's the 'deal' part of the 'deal' which Brexiteers seem not to be able to grasp. Or, in other words, what area of market access are you willing to give up to China/India/the EU/USA/etc in return for British access? Sure, a trade agreement could be signed in a matter of months if you agree to all the other countries terms (which would be highly ironic in the UK's case). Sure you could sign a quick agreement with China... and then let all their cheapest crap manufacturing flood the British market, which would be great for British Manufacturing. Or what about Brazil? A quick agreement and the UK's possibly unsubsidized agricultural sector will drown in a sea of cheap meat. Presumably that's not what will be agreed to at all in the end unless the Brexiteers in charge are even dumber than I think possible but what does Britain have in return? For a start, Britain's negotiating position will be much stronger if it has some sort of role in the EEA, even if highly restricted, as opposed to Brexit Max. Secondly the UK's main industry in terms of paying the government's bills is the City of London and that's services - where there are much more trade restrictions globally than on ordinary goods. Importantly for negotiations, free trade in services requires at least some degree of freedom of movement as it requires people giving those services to be a certain location. Consider for a moment the India-EU free trade agreement which has now been in negotiation for about a decade and has stalled over a couple of issues. The main country blocking the agreement was.... wait for it.... the UK. Why? Partly because India didn't wish to liberalize financial services (and give a much greater role to the City of London over the Indian economy, with all the unfortunate implications that has) but also because the UK refused to support reducing restrictions on visas to the EU for Indian IT professionals. But if the UK is in a weaker negotiating position, and considering the demand for specialized professionals in the high end of services sector, can the UK really resist further opening of skilled immigration from the rest of the world? And before you say 'yeah, that's skilled migrants, not what people voted against' well after accepting such skilled migrants the pressure to accept marriage and family migration would be very strong, perhaps so strong that by 2040 "End Muslim Immigration, rejoin the EU" could be plausible slogan.

At least that's my understanding, people who know more about these things please correct me. But either way, it seems pretty clear to me that among the 'liberal' Brexiteers their main issue with the EU is that they didn't control it (Franco-German club) but what they really want they simply can't have.

Al has also alerted me that agriculture is a devolved responsibility in the UK, so any post-CAP arrangement will be left to the four individual governments with the House of Commons representing England. It's quite plausible therefore to imagine a situation where farmers in England aren't subsidized at all, while those are in Wales and Northern Ireland are (Don't know about Scotland). This obviously would have problematic implications for the UK.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Pokemon anime on: July 16, 2016, 04:10:21 pm
I think you missed the point of Inspector Gadget, BRTD. That he was bumbling and incompetent was the whole idea.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 12, 2016, 08:41:59 pm
South Tyneside now - some hilariously uniform results. All 18 wards voted to leave, and only one was close (very close) and that was, wait for it, Cleadon and East Boldon, historically the Tory's strongest ward in the borough (all it has a full slate of Labour councillors now)

Beacon and Bents: 59.34% Leave
Biddock and All Saints: 65.89% Leave
Cleadon Park: 64.14% Leave
Harton: 64.11% Leave
Horsley Hill: 58.54% Leave
Simonside and Rekendyke: 61.35% Leave
West Park: 60.9% Leave
Westoe 58.58% Leave
Whitburn and Marsden: 61.71% Leave
Whiteleas: 65.83% Leave
Bede: 67.85% Leave
Boldon Colliery: 60.44% Leave
Cleadon and East Boldon: 50.29% Leave
Fellgate and Headworth: 66.57% Leave
Hebburn North: 60.2% Leave
Hebburn South 61.98% Leave
Monkton: 63.39% Leave
Primose: 65.7% Leave
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 12, 2016, 08:10:23 pm
It is a similar situation in Leeds which did not count by wards but by 'counting areas'. However, unlike Wiltshire I can confirm that these counting areas (all ten of them) were drawn up with wards in mind. The wards in each area are listed below along with the result

Area 1 (Armley, Calverley & Farsley and Horsforth): 53.33% Remain
Area 2 (Beeston & Holbeck, Cross Gates & Whinmoor and Harewood): 55.36% Leave
Area 3 (Bramley & Stanningley, Killinbeck & Seacroft and Weetwood): 54.25% Leave
Area 4 (Burmantofts & Richmond, Garforth & Swillington and Kirkstall): 50.31% Remain
Area 5 (Chapel Allerton, Kippax & Methley and Moortown): 56.74% Remain
Area 6 (City & Hunslet, Morley South, Otley & Yeadon and Roundhay) 57.07% Remain
Area 7 (Farnley & Wortley, Guiseley & Rawdon and Temple Newsam): 55.34% Leave
Area 8 (Adel & Wharfedale, Gipton & Harehills, Pudsey and Wetherby): 51.75% Remain
Area 9 (Alwoodley, Headingley, Middleton and Morley North): 51.79% Leave
Area 10 (Ardsley & Robin Hood, Hyde Park & Woodhouse and Rothwell): 51.56% Leave

EDIT: Just looked at where those wards are on a map. LOL is all I can say. Still though, not altogether useless.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 12, 2016, 07:16:48 pm
Not wards, but Wiltshire has released results by counting area. The whole county was divided into four 'counting areas' (including postal votes) - Chippenham, Devizes, Salisbury and Trowbridge - and those results are what they have released. I don't know whether those counting areas correspond to wards though.

Chippenham 51.5% Remain
Devizes 54.8% Leave
Salisbury 52.15% Leave
Trowbridge 54.8% Leave
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 11, 2016, 09:07:55 pm
Plymouth has also released ward-level data. I don't know how that shakes up on the constituency level though.

EDIT: So has Peterborough

EDIT2:Salford
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 10, 2016, 07:44:13 pm
Sedgefield must have voted Leave, and probably over 60% - Durham voted 57.5 to Leave, and that includes not just Sedgefield but the University town of Durham itself, which is hard to imagine as anything other as quite strong for Remain (the town itself that itself - not its surrounding hinterland, oh no).
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: July 10, 2016, 07:38:38 pm
People, stop reading the referendum results into normal UK elections, the two have no relation with each other.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016 on: July 08, 2016, 12:05:56 pm
In a normal situation I'd be amused that the Tory base will almost certainly make the worst choice and pivot off the limits off electability to match us, but the fact that Leadsom will be our PM till 2020 and is probably going to immensely screw up the Article 5 nomination (including Nargle The Fargle being included in the official negotions and the serious consideration of just trading with the EU under WTO rules) is just too much.

Well, you know it's not just your country that's getting screwed up here, no?

I have acquaintances and friends who work in companies (foodstuffs) exporting to the UK who are worried about their jobs at the moment because of sterling plunging off a cliff.

well we've ed your country over for centuries, it's no surprise we continue to do so.



Indeed (not you personally, I hasten to add). I'd imagine there's a pretty strong correlation between the Leave vote and anti-Irish sentiment (and indeed anti-X sentiment in general, for all values of X not white, English-speaking, and nominally Protestant). We might view it as the Ulsterisation of English and Welsh politics.

On this point, it's interesting to note that Merseyside was the only ceremonial county in the North and Midlands to vote Remain.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 06, 2016, 09:38:21 pm
^

Fvck we're actually going to do this. The future of the economy is going to be settled by a vote of the Tory membership.

Doesn't that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?

And if it doesn't, remember this is what the average Conservative membership looks like

18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: british frantically googling what e.u. is, hours after voting to leave on: July 05, 2016, 10:40:42 pm
Bad thread imo

Although it is worth pointing out that almost nobody who isn't directly involved understand what the EU works (especially how it REALLY works and not just the models on that are on paper, two different things). And that this seems to be especially true in the UK.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 10:40:36 am
LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

As it stands rn, it would finsh 73-72 in favour of the ALP
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 10:34:45 am
LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:28:05 am
Gilmore - which was declared earlier for the LNP - has been put back into play as later counts are leaning ALP. It's now 50-50.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:27:01 am
One positive is that Labor have won Eden-Monaro and Lindsay, so come whenever the next election will be, the media will have to obsess about something else.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:21:50 am
Looking at the results briefly atm it looks like a repeat of 1998 - the ALP swing was big but in all the wrong places (apart from Tasmania and a few unrepresentative places like MacArthur... what happened there?). Hopefully the LNP don't just scrap a majority with this.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: July 01, 2016, 08:07:30 pm
Is anyone in Ireland talking about increased immigration from the EU if the UK limits its own immigration?

Ireland already has higher (proportionally) EU10 migration than the UK does ftr.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: July 01, 2016, 06:31:08 pm
I predicted that!

(Although I was horribly wrong when I thought the North East would be England's most pro-Remain region other than London).
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