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April 29, 2016, 08:34:40 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 1977-present on: Today at 11:15:28 am
What was going on in Assam exactly during this period?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Since joining the Atlas Forum, have you moved more leftward or rightward? on: April 24, 2016, 07:15:20 pm
I don't believe in this dichotomy but as I realised with horror that each generation has been worse than the last I suppose I've become more conservative in general.

e: In particular watching deranged college students attempting to ban free speech has been a revelatory experience and convinced me of the very real danger of ideological indoctrination in education.

e2: Probably the most important factor in any political shift in my own life has been a growing sense of very real disgust with the professional left. Whether it's the extreme of equivocating on the Soviet Union or the no less disgraceful cult around the criminal PSUV ransacking of Venezuela you don't have to look far to find people hemming and hawing, outright lying and deflecting while they sing the praises of Socialism. Sad!

I'm tempted to do a long effort post here and maybe I will later but I just want to say that e2 here is pretty important to me, as is the general superficiality of the Irish 'left' in general. For all the problems of our political class, it is a good thing the Irish left have no real power or responsibility. Yet I can't really identify with the 'right' - the parties of property and finance - and even less with 'professional centrists' a la the Blairites and the Clintonistas. Oh well.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Border States in 1868 on: April 22, 2016, 02:44:07 pm
Thanks! Great post.
4  General Discussion / History / Re: Opinion of William Jennings Bryan on: April 21, 2016, 07:05:46 pm
A Truly American Crackpot.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would the above poster's political opinions be popular in Massachusetts? on: April 21, 2016, 06:51:12 pm
I hope so.

Anyway, I recommend that everyone in this thread please join AAD and stop with this ridiculous circus
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / The Border States in 1868 on: April 21, 2016, 06:03:13 pm
Why did Seymour do so well in Maryland, Delaware, and Kentucky? If it was just a 'border states' factor why not so well in WV and MO? This is the still best ever Democratic result in Maryland and Kentucky - and third best in Delaware yet it is strangely little commented on. What happened?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: April 16, 2016, 06:54:40 pm
Another poll from Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times, for what it's worth. Changes in comparison with the last B&A before the general election:

FF 26 (+4)
FG 23 (-7)
Ind/Oth 18 (+3)
SF 17 (+2)
Lab 4 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 3 (+2) (bwaahaahaa...)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-2)

FF's failure to take up FG's offer of junior partnership clearly doing them immense damage, exactly as predicted by the pol. corrs.

OTOH that's basically Margin of Errors changes from the GE result. Need more polls, methinks.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: April 13, 2016, 08:27:27 am
I wonder whether the Tory majority of 2011 and especially its Ontario results was really just down to the Liberals having a spectacularly bad leader.

Anyway, what is the story wrt weed and the voting system? I haven't been paying attention to Canada recently.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: drumpf campaign proving toxic to nation's schoolchildren on: April 12, 2016, 05:47:03 pm
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poor Kansas on: March 26, 2016, 11:06:48 pm
White people sure do love Sanders.

Alaska is only 62% non Hispanic white.

Im sure most caucus goes in Alaska tonight were lily white.

Too many Natives in Alaska for that.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET) on: March 26, 2016, 04:43:54 pm
Sorry to be annoying but link to the results?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you believe Ted Cruz actually had sex with any of these women? on: March 26, 2016, 03:49:20 pm
It's pathetic that politicians go around for years talking about how hardball and dirty politics is and then, when confronted with someone who actually plays dirty, complains that he's not playing by the totally imaginary ruleset. Trump's lateral thinking and lack of commitment to any faux-rules or objectives other than "winning" has spelled the doom of his GOP rivals, and if she's not careful, may yet spell the doom for the most textbook uncreative by-the-book politician since George H. W. Bush.

Don't accuse your opponent of sleeping with five women! ...Why not? Who cares if it's true or untrue: the point is to create doubt and undermine Cruz's reputation among Cruz's most loyal voters in the religious Right.

Don't accuse your opponent of having a pathologial mental illness akin to pedophilia. Why not? It worked like a charm and Carson's now endorsed Trump.


Do people just not remember that this is the country that invented rough and tumble politics? The country where people accused John Adams of treasonous schemes to make himself king? Accusing Thomas Jefferson of raping and siring children off of his slaves during a campaign (this one was even true)? John Quincy Adams of pimping out American virgin girls to the Tsar of Russia to improve US/Russian relations? Political attacks have little relationship to fact and never had. Why are we suddenly pretending we're too good for this sort of thing? It's what made America what it is today.

This forum needs a goddamn like button. Great post.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate would do better in the general election? on: March 26, 2016, 10:03:22 am
Trump has a higher ceiling than Cruz, but also a lower floor.

Basically I came in here to post this.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you believe Ted Cruz actually had sex with any of these women? on: March 25, 2016, 09:35:41 pm
My belief in the lack of justice in this universe leads me to say 'yes'.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Swing map in an Hillary/Trump election. on: March 25, 2016, 05:24:53 pm
Something like this maybe, assuming no third parties:

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 18, 2016, 10:49:15 am
Btw if anyone could post some tallies here that would be great. I already have Dublin Bay South, Longford-Westmeath and Sligo-Leitrim. I'm especially looking for Dublin Rathdown, Dublin Central, and Dun Laoghaire.

Also if anyone (shot in the dark here) has a blank map of Longford-Westmeath or Sligo-Leitrim, or any constituency for that matte, that would be great.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does a "Bernie wins" map look like at this point? on: March 16, 2016, 12:26:27 pm
A magic unicorn
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 13, 2016, 10:01:28 am

Thanks for that. Going through those results now, may produce maps later, anyway I wonder who was voting in Box 315 in Mansion House A, the results were:

Andrews (SF) 210 (54.7%)
Mooney (PBP) 36 (9.4%)
Humphries (LAB) 28 (7.3%)
O'Callaghan (FF) 24 (6.25%)
Flynn (IND) 22 (5.7%)

With Fine Gael's two candidates all together getting 11 votes, only one more vote than was spoiled.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 06:58:24 pm
Cross Post with AAD

The Excellent Tallyrific Maps has published some tallies on its website and FB page (although some are only accessible via a paywall Sad   ) Anyway here are some highlights:

Poll Topper in Dublin Bay South


(Note: Andrews(SF), Humphries (LAB) O'Connor and Murphy (FG) and Ryan (Greens). Ryan, O'Connor, Murphy and Jim O'Callaghan (FF) were elected, the latter without leading in any electoral division despite being the third highest in the poll. This is obviously a class map with SF leading in the inner city sections of the constituency where voters are more likely to live in social housing (also a large number of young renters but they are less likely to vote or vote somewhere else). The inner suburbs of Ranelagh, Rathmines, and Ballsbridge were all led by the two Fine Gael candidates with seemingly excellent vote management. This is mostly a wealthy area. While Ranelagh has gentrified massively over the past 20-25 years (and has had a major influx of hipster, thus the Green vote), the areas by the coast where Eoin Murphy led have been among the wealthiest parts of the city (and thus Ireland) since the 19th Century. Tallyrific Maps notes:

Quote
The Poll-toppers in Dublin Bay South....

Sinn Fein polled 34% in strongly Working-Class areas (10% of total voters) but merely 3% in strongly Middle-Class areas (50% of total voters).

The corresponding (and contrasting) figures for Fine Gael were 10% and 39%....
(No, I'm not sure how they define this).

Poll-toppers in Dublin Central


That's Burke (IND), Costello (LAB), McDonald (SF), Donohue (FG)... McDonald and Donohue were elected along with Maureen O'Sullivan (IND) who actually finished seventh on the first count but leapfrogged over everyone on the transfers. Basically a lot of what I said on Dublin Bay South applies here, the location of the Burke vote suggests to me that's where he lives or is from. Burke being a very old-fashioned sort of Irish left-wing working-class republican right down to his campaign slogan "One of our own" and his former membership of the IRA. Interesting that in both Bay South and here that Labour led in one electoral division, which suggests that what was left of the Labour was rather personal and geographical indeed (as you may have noticed from the Bay South map even in Dublin city geographical location can matter a lot).

And finally for now Kildare North



Durkan and Lawlor (FG), Lawless and O'Rourke (FF), Murphy (SD) and Stagg (LAB). Murphy, Durkan, Lawless and O'Rourke elected. There's a lot that could be said about this map but it seems to indicate that the Social Democrats did best in the more upmarket towns-now-turned-commuter-suburbs including Maynooth, which has a university in it (whose alumni include yours truly) and Leixlip, home of one of Ireland's biggest white-collar industrial employers, Intel. Meanwhile Fianna Fail did best in the more purpose built suburbs which grew massively from the 1980s onwards like Naas and Celbridge. While the rural areas of the constituency were divided between FF and FG. Although it is difficult to tell in detail without percentages.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 04:16:38 pm
Seemingly unfazed by having massively overpolled FG and underpolled FF (even compared to other pollsters) all through the election campaign, RedC are back with another poll for the Sunday Business Post. I'm giving the figures, along with the change from the last poll of theirs before the election:

FG 27 (-3)
FF 25 (+5)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SD 5 (+1)
Lab 4 (-3)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)

Any idea whether they changed their methodology?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 04:08:12 pm
My understanding is that the Labour demographics in this election resembled the electorates of fellow small liberal parties in other European countries.

Actually in this election the liberals - Jan O'Sullivan apart - who got wiped out. It's its more small town base around long Labour traditions or personal voting where it survived (Penrose in L-W, Sherlock in Cork East, Wexford, Nenagh...)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does this Ted Cruz quote make you like Ted Cruz more or less? on: March 07, 2016, 09:07:23 pm
Dissolve the United States imo.
23  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is Roko's Basilisk actually a serious and realistic concern? on: March 07, 2016, 09:32:07 am
On this note, I recommend this book below to everyone:



A Science Fiction story in which technology creates the Hindu gods.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 04, 2016, 10:08:39 pm
Could they just alter water charges progressively so rich people more, or, err, link the fee to water usage rather than being flat?

Because this is Fine Gael

Wait, people don't pay their utilities based on usage in Ireland? Isn't that a massive moral hazard?

Nope and yes.

Actually we didn't use to pay for our utilities at all and the water protesters want to return to that, without a plan of how to fix the water distribution system.

But this is Ireland - one of the biggest effects of making people pay for refuse has been a massive spike in illegal dumping, amid our romanticized green fields you can regularly find the sight and smell of other people's garbage.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 29, 2016, 07:54:12 pm
Anyway, it's finally confirmed... Sean Haughey has been elected. *sigh*
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