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December 04, 2016, 01:11:16 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is socialism to blame for Venezuela's plight? on: November 29, 2016, 03:06:35 pm
While this is even worse than prior circumstances this isn't exactly the first time Venezuela has found itself in this situation.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Hypothetical: New England, Washington, and Oregon join Canada in 2021. on: November 25, 2016, 08:43:37 am
Quebec would secede from Canada.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / The Future on: November 22, 2016, 04:18:18 pm
Cross Post with AAD

This will be incoherent but just some thoughts I think should be worth sharing

I guess the development and trends that the 2016 election were inevitable, everything has pointed in this direction for a while but it required a candidate like Trump to massively swing the small market and industrial towns and cities of the Midwest to make things, well, even more than they were before. That is clearly that the main division in US politics - other than race and ethnicity, above which thousands of PhDs theses have already been written and I have no desire here to add to the verbiage - is areas where the local elite industries are dominated by Mental and 'Intellectual' work (New York, California, Virginia) and those where the Military, the 'carceral state' and natural resources are main elite industries (Texas, the Ranching states). It's not a perfect explanation - Utah would be a lot 'bluer' if it were - but it's a much more obvious and correct analysis than most out there. Within these spheres class differences diminished - at least for the 2016 election - the difference between Clinton's result in Manhattan and that in Bronx was a mere 2 percentage points. She won a lot of elite - really elite - suburbs. She managed to win Orange County, CA but lose the election. We all know what happened in the Rust Belt, but also Oil Boom North Dakota was one of the states most strongly to swing to Trump, despite long being a 'red state' (I'm using normal colours for my sins). In the reddest states, class distinctions have long been an irrelevance (except when it is confounded by ethnicity) at least at the level of voting patterns. Of course, the thing about natural resource industry as well as the Military and Police industries is that they are much more 'manly' than banks, or IT, or Government bureaucracy. I suspect this explains a lot about the vote two weeks ago - and the appeal of 'reviving the factories', beyond the appeal of just having a job, but the job that is a suitable for a man, with one's hands, rather than effeminate office work. Of course this relies on the fantasy that a man who works in accounts at an oil firm is not a bureaucrat, but since when has that stopped suburban reactionaries?

Connected, this map seems important:

It's not an election map - the anomaly of Washington state gives it away - but rather it is a map of the median age of women on the first wedding day, Red is 26 or over, Blue is under 26. The lowest is Idaho at 23.2 and the highest is DC at 29.7 (of the states MA is highest: 28.5). Now consider what I mentioned about manliness above and consider this map, I'll leave you to your own conclusion. Oh, btw, in Europe pretty much every country on such a map would be deep red (and Washington just fails the cut: the median age is 25.9, probably lowered significantly I'd imagine by the east of the state, the same is true in Oregon except it just makes it: 26.0)

A fact that has crossed my mind in the last few weeks is that when the 16th Amendment was in the process of being ratified its biggest champions were frequently in the Deep South. This seems counter-intuitive to us now, so we must asked 'why?' And the reason is simple, under the conditions that the original income tax was proposed (i.e. the low rates and high thresholds) the Southern states would pay almost nothing. Meanwhile under the first Revenue Act of 1913 something like 40% of the entire federal income tax came from just one state: New York. This though was to change as the state grew massively in size under Wilson and then FDR and successors, as well as the changes in American political economy during this period.

So the Future under Trump and beyond? Endless funnels of resources to the Midwest and the South to fund jobs that the local GOP supporters feel are appropriate to their station. This though is hardly the future, it is present except it will be more so - this has effectively been the policy of the GOP for years, what Trump has done has removed the pretenses that Cold War politics required ('liberty', 'Small Government'). The question then needs to be asked: What happens if New York or California tell flyover country to  off?
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: November 20, 2016, 02:28:27 pm
So the BBC apparently thinks that the revelation that some Prince is dating some actress I've never heard of (and that he hates that the media is harassing her) is more important news than something else that's taking place today, as it's the current top story on its website:


Notice the irony anyone?

Surely the broadcasting rules that apply to our general election days don't also apply to U.S. presidential election days do they?

She's half-black, so the media reaction is very interesting.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Should Ontario and Quebec be partitioned? on: November 15, 2016, 03:51:11 pm
The only argument here is for Northern Ontario.

People, people, political communities are not things you can just draw lines over, and over and over again... unless you absolutely have to.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What is the biggest city you've never heard of? (EU Edition) on: October 24, 2016, 08:24:36 pm
Bydgoszcz is the only one I've never heard (#79)

Following football over the years - as well as politics - gets one usually to know such things.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Yay Wallons! on: October 22, 2016, 01:18:09 pm
The Dutch organization Forum voor Democratie, which took part in the successful campaign to organize a referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, has launched a campaign for a referendum on CETA. Let's pray the Dutch will be sane enough not to stand in the way of this beautiful Freedom Treaty.

Yes, one has to appreciate how the Dutch, a country whose economy is literally a series of ports for trade coming to and from other countries, has turned against free trade.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are you, like Paul Ryan, "sickened" by the Trump audio tape? on: October 07, 2016, 08:18:00 pm
Mostly I'm sickened by how terrible a dishonourable whore Paul Ryan is. Wouldn't survive a minute in a proper whorehouse. Sad!
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the Preceding Poster's drink 'worse than Meths'? on: September 24, 2016, 07:52:12 pm
It is the most shattering experience of a young man's life when one morning he awakes and quite reasonably says to himself "I will never play the Dane." When that moment comes, one's ambition ceases. Don't you agree?
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: will Stephane Dion ever be PM of Canada? on: September 19, 2016, 01:05:13 pm
Hey, I was right about Mr. Newsnight Review too. And this Gully from the "Hispanic is a race in the census" era Smiley
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Post something to trigger the preceding poster on: September 11, 2016, 01:30:24 pm
Your Sex Threads are bad, and you should feel bad.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the Preceding Poster's drink 'worse than Meths'? on: September 10, 2016, 07:22:57 pm
We Demand the Finest Posts available to humanity, we want them here and we want them now
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the Preceding Poster's drink 'worse than Meths'? on: September 10, 2016, 06:08:21 pm
I made this thread by mistake.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of marxists.org on: September 10, 2016, 04:53:43 pm
Strongly approve. An excellent historical source. I concur with what Nathan said.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Is the Preceding Poster's drink 'worse than Meths'? on: September 09, 2016, 02:15:11 pm
And if it isn't, is it that the Wankers don't drink it because they can't afford it?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 08:59:58 am
Why was the swing in Spillett so weak compared to elsewhere?

Also Labor to sweep Alice Springs? Has that ever happened before?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 05:34:40 am
Btw, does anyone have a map or at least data on electorates in the NT by % Aboriginal?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 05:24:09 am
These results are hilarious
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 20, 2016, 10:12:07 am
I wonder what a correlation coefficient between Remain-Leave margin and Labour-Tory margin in England (obviously Scotland would skew it quite a bit) would look like. From this map, I don't really see a relationship either way, but there might be one even if it's not obvious.

I didn't do this for England but in AAD I posted charts for the correlation between support for Scottish Independence and Welsh Autonomy (2011 and 1997) and 2016 remain. In all calculations the correlation was basically zero - and literally zero for 2014 Yes and 2016 Remain.

However, for Northern Ireland there was an extremely strong negative correlation between voting for self-declared Unionists in the 2016 Assembly elections and voting for Remain (r=-0.95), and the reverse for the Nationalists (r=0.80).
20  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Opinion on 'burkini' ban? on: August 20, 2016, 08:33:16 am
I see the male champions of Womenhood are out in force wanting the state to mandate what women can and can't wear.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ask Me Anything-- (Not So) Devout Centrist on: August 19, 2016, 07:04:45 pm
Why is it that when I saw the OP my first reaction was "Sad!" ?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 19, 2016, 06:28:16 pm
Some of those Hanretty figures are wrong from what we now about ward data. Sutton Coldfield voted leave, for example, but he has it voting remain.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton leading in CO (+14/+12), FL (+5), NC (+9), VA (+13/+12) on: August 12, 2016, 01:23:04 pm
A lot of people who say they are voting for Johnson (or Stein) will, in the final picture, decide not to vote . Those that will vote will vote for Clinton more than they would usually. These are mostly GOP voters after all.  So in all probability the polls are exaggerating Trump's chances.

Anyway, I'm tired and with a sh**tty WIFI connection in a bus so a question: Am I right in thinking that 1984 was the only contested election in US history where one candidate won all 13 of the original colonies?
24  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What is the most destructive force on the right? on: August 04, 2016, 05:04:45 pm
Themselves, obviously.

25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern: "End the EU accession talks with Turkey" on: August 04, 2016, 05:02:56 pm
I too oppose the idea of the Republic of Sealand joining the Eurasian Economic Union, and talks on this should stop.
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