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September 22, 2017, 01:47:01 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 16, 2017, 08:24:24 pm
I'm a strong believer in a form of the way that Ireland does things - the election of an impartial Speaker who is automatically elected without needing to contest a seat.  Ideally this would lead to the seat that they were elected to becoming vacant and there being a by-election in the constituency or the next person filling any list seat - would make sure that there were was no partisan change in the composition of parliament based on whoever is chosen as speaker.

I'm not a great fan of the system but for New Zealand there is an easy solution to this - ensure that the Speaker is a list MP.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 14, 2017, 11:49:45 pm
Hahaha that test was terrible and I couldn't answer half the questions because I would need more details about how things work in New Zealand before answering

Anyhoo...

TOP - 60% (looool)
Green - 59%
Labour - 57%
Maori - 49%
Mana - 46%
National - 46%
ACT - 45% (45 too high, the test is bad, see)
Legalise Cannabis - 44%
United Future - 42% (are they even running now?)
New Zealand First - 37%
Conservative Party - 32% (better)
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: September 14, 2017, 11:23:14 pm
After the election some commentators (intellectual, wise) claimed that the hung parliament result would mean a Softer Brexit and made no attention to any other political issue that may come by this parliament while it is in session.

Instead the reality is Brexit-related legislation is going to pass through parliament fairly easily. Everything else will not.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 07, 2017, 11:47:28 pm
Link Broken
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 06:38:48 pm
Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? on: September 03, 2017, 06:37:19 pm
He didn't, it's just that wealthier Southern whites in the suburbs were traditionally more likely to be GOP than those in the North. On the election day therefore some - more economically cautious and liberal minded - of that persuasion flipped in the South while a similar person in the North had been voting for the Dems in Presidential races for quite some time.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dark Horse candidates for 2020 on: September 03, 2017, 05:40:05 pm
I could totally imagine, if Bernie doesn't run, a random House member like Jayapal (or even somebody elected in 2018) inheriting a large chunk of his coalition.

People who remember that far back, how long did Bachmann telegraph her intentions to run in 2012?

I don't think Jayapal is eligible?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 04:54:18 pm
Thanks. Although I note there is only one National held electorate with a majority smaller than 1,500: Auckland Central.

(God, the margins on the some of the Suburban and Rural held National seats are enormous).

Also one of these days I would like someone to explain to me the patterns in the flag referendum. I see that all the electorates in favour of safe National ones, but why those ones? What was going on?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 03:05:16 pm
Is there a list of marginal seats anywhere? I know it's MMP so it doesn't matter so much but judging from the map of the last election there doesn't seem to be that many marginals.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 02:54:43 pm
NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

It would be foolish to assume that Northland is safe.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 12:42:09 pm
Newshub/Reid Research Poll

Aug 22 to Aug 30

National 43.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
Greens 6.1% (-2.2%)
TOP 1.9% (-0.1%)
Māori 1% (-0.5%)
ACT 0.6% (---)

Changes from Aug 2-8 poll.

Since WINston's superannuation (pension) "scandal" broke, his numbers have been on the decline. Historically NZ first has done better than their polls and the Greens have done worse, but apparently at least some of the pollsters have been attempting to compensate for that.

Looking forward to the possibility of there only being two parties in parliament, just like the old days.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rank the following left-wing politicians from most favorable to least favorable on: September 03, 2017, 09:10:36 am
Sanders, Iglesias, Corbyn, Wagenknecht, JLM, Mexican Nationalist
13  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: another "thug veto" from the regressive left on: September 01, 2017, 07:02:07 pm
should I have used a sh**ttier link so you'd have something better to bitch about?

Yeah, you should linked to your list of posts. They are all identical and identically garbage.
14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: another "thug veto" from the regressive left on: September 01, 2017, 01:44:13 pm
27,807 posts and every single one of them "so much for the tolerant left"
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: September 01, 2017, 01:43:14 pm
some of the patterns will be down to Right to Buy, there's a fair few wards there with relatively high council housing and mortgaged (I live in a similar area but in Reading) the council tenants who bought their houses in the 80s and 90s are either still mortgaged or have sold up to move on to greener pastures, often for a nice profit.

in Enfield you can see the pattern of the parliamentary seats, Southgate safe Con, Edmonton safe Lab and Enfield North marginal and there are a few other boroughs similar

Not any more!
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: August 31, 2017, 08:28:41 pm
Yes, that isn't surprising except in the context where that vote was always dormant for Labour (and hasn't taken off everything, Labour did note their best performance in Torbay since 1979 but were still a very distant third, and failed to take Morecambe and Blackpool North)... and the effect is weak and reversed in mostly heavily Brexit places with little tourism but where the dead go to die, like Clacton.

(Btw I was going to write a longer post but then got distracted but I did have a look at the deprivation stats and I'm now curious as to why the Conservatives seemingly overperform in Northampton).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: August 31, 2017, 07:37:09 pm
As I stated elsewhere, Labour seem to be doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places. This has been a pattern observed in the GE (although not consistently) and is continuing in the local by-election results.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: This just in: Slovakia is super racist on: August 27, 2017, 09:16:14 pm
Slovakia has not just one but two neo-Tisoist/neo-Nazi parties in its parliament. This isn't news.

UPDATE: A recent poll put the Neo-Nazis on 14% of the vote.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 2017 Population Census round on: August 27, 2017, 03:13:35 pm
If you truly want to fight climate change tell these people to keep it in their pants. Jesus f'ing Christ.

Nothing to do with frequency of f-cking, everything to do with socioeconomic structure and incentives to have children.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why do the french sour on their leaders so quick? on: August 26, 2017, 09:21:02 pm
Because they all want to reform the labour market, and the French mostly don't want it reformed.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: This just in: Slovakia is super racist on: August 26, 2017, 05:36:33 pm
Slovakia has not just one but two neo-Tisoist/neo-Nazi parties in its parliament. This isn't news.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 2017 Population Census round on: August 26, 2017, 08:23:13 am
Imagine if India, Pakistan, Bangladash, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan were still one country...

+ Myanmar/Burma.

(but were they actually all one "country" at the same time ? I doubt it. Afghanistan was only occupied.)

And Sri Lanka was always a separate colony.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Rank Anglosphere countries from most conservative to least on: August 24, 2017, 05:51:14 pm
Canada is certainly not the most Left by any definition. Although it is the country that the US Democrats would like the US to be and could be if it weren't for the South, the Constitution and the fact that they are sh-t at governing.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Rank Anglosphere countries from most conservative to least on: August 24, 2017, 03:47:49 pm
Meaningless and silly question. How does one define Conservative exactly?
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Rank Canadian provinces from most to least conservative on: August 22, 2017, 05:53:58 pm
People putting Sask in the top three Conservative, please stop.

Btw I feel mentioning this as it is relevant and counter-intuitive but whenever polls on US elections are done in Canada the provinces of Canada that are most sympathetic to the GOP are not in the West - no, not Alberta - but rather in the Atlantic. Which makes sense when you think about it for a bit.
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