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June 24, 2016, 10:34:15 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: Today at 05:19:24 pm
Some areas of Irish-UK relations - such as the legal status of citizens of one jurisdiction in the other - are dealt under pre-EU or extra-EU legislation such as the Ireland Act, 1949. Others, however, are dependent on EU guarantees. Many provisions of the Good Friday Agreement were written with the assumption that EU laws would apply and that both states would remain members. This means that, yes, border posts could come up again should the UK fail to get into the EEA.

The thing that worries me about the border is how worried are the Brexiteers among immigration really?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: Today at 05:07:02 pm
Hey! One Bright side.... Lambeth was the most REMAIN council in the whole UK. Why is Kate Hoey still at Vauxhall?

Anyway I admit I called this - like the UK GE last year - completely wrong. In both cases I underestimated the conservatism of the UK (read: English and Welsh) electorate. However, I'm enjoying the assumption that Labour now have a huge problem in places like Doncaster, Barnsley, Bolsover, Stoke-upon-Trent, Hull and so on and but the Tories - soon to be under the management of the Vote Leave campaign - aren't in trouble at all in St Albans, Guildford, Bath and Oxfordshire. In both cases neither are likely to be in much trouble but the asymmetry is interesting.
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 23, 2016, 01:37:30 pm
Some of the sides in the 'weak' half of the draw have played good attacking football. But whatever: I learned years ago that most people talking about sport (any sport) on the internet haven't got a fycking clue what they're talking about.

It is certainly true that teams like Croatia, Wales, Hungary and Belgium have seemed stronger than, say, England.

Then again, in my experience football history tends to reaffirm itself in the knockout stages for some weird reason. I would rather face and of the above teams than Spain, Germany or Italy even when they latter look bad.

That reaffirming tends to be more of a World Cup thing (where there are more 'elite' countries) than a Euro thing. Greece and Denmark have won the EURO so I wouldn't rule out a shock. Honestly though apart from Poland v Switzerland (zzzzzz....) the games on the top half of the draw look more entertaining than those on the bottom half.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:58:16 am
Everyone knows when they say 'the Commonwealth' they mean Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Powerhouses than those countries are.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:34:11 am
It strikes me if LEAVE wins and then they go the Minford Route of unilateral free trade then it we will truly have a natural experiment on our hands whether the market or states run the world.

Not an experiment one would want to leave through though.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 21, 2016, 09:28:24 pm
PEOPLE NOTHING YOU WILL HEAR BEFORE 10PM GMT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE ANY GOOD (and not much in the few hours after will be worth much either).
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 21, 2016, 08:04:19 pm
It will be 50-50 and will go through 35 recounts Sad

God I hope not. I'll have to sleep some time on Friday morning.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 20, 2016, 10:09:14 am
52.5% Remain
47.5% Leave

Turnout: ~60%
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 19, 2016, 10:16:45 pm
For those interested, here's a map of the AV referendum results. It is a pretty good proxy for 'Social Liberalism' (defined somewhat nebulously on purpose) in England. Note that in England the same areas (local authorities) that were used as counting areas in 2011 will be used as counting areas this time around. That is not the case in Wales or Scotland, which are also using local authorities on Thursday but used devolved parliamentary constituencies in 2011. This makes data comparisons much less straightforward than in England.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 19, 2016, 09:29:26 pm
Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

I have read conflicting things on this. I think they are counted individually but declared as one. Otherwise though I think you are right.

Quote
Quote
London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.

Corrected on Hoey. And yes, agreed (with some local caveats).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 19, 2016, 12:25:40 pm
 Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

Scotland
Most Remain: Edinburgh
Most Leave: In 1975 the only two county authorities to vote NO were the Shetland and Western Islands and Scotland was much more NO than the country as a whole - very different to now. In 2016 I suspect the NO vote will correspond to a) the Tory vote and b) Fishing communities... so I might go here for Moray, although I admit the Islands are a completely mystery to me and could go either way very strongly.

London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

North East
Most Remain: Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Most Leave: Hartlepool. I think here correlations to the UKIP should be clearer than elsewhere

Wales
I suspect REMAIN will do much better in Welsh-speaking Wales than elsewhere, where the vote will be more similar to England
Most Remain: Ceredigion
Most Leave: Denbighshire. In 1975 some of NO better areas anywhere were in the valleys but I dubious whether that will be repeat. Again, I expect low turnout in these uber-Labour areas (more so than I would expect heavy LEAVE votes, for which I see no polling evidence).

North West
Most Remain: Liverpool. This is a hunch based more on the idea that Merseyside is less nationalist inclined than elsewhere in England.
Most Leave: Ooofff... could be several. As nationalism is clearly an issue here, perhaps Barrow-in-Furness?

South East
Most Remain: Oxford. It will be either Oxford or Brighton and Hove.
Most Leave: Probably going to either in Kent or in one of those seaside towns populated with retired and cranky old Colonels... on this basis, I'd go with New Forest. This is the region where I'm least sure about how it will vote.

Yorkshire and the Humber
Remain: In 1975 North Yorkshire was the strongest area in the whole UK for YES - That was the farmers vote. How farmers will vote this time is one of the big mysteries (unpolled ffs) of this referendum, but it won't be anything as solid as last time around, but how North Yorkshire and a lot of Wales will vote is dependent on it. However, I will stay in North Yorkshire for most remain at least in Yorkshire - and I'd go with the university and railway city of York.
Leave: North Lincolnshire

South West:
Remain: Technically it will be Gibraltar, which is considered part of the South West for electoral purposes but nobody says it is part of the South West so therefore I choose Exeter. Ok it will probably be Bristol, but I'm going to pick a slightly less 'boring' option.
Leave: Torbay. For why see South East

West Midlands
Remain: I think this might be the most difficult to region to predict, but I'll go with the obvious and choose Birmingham
Leave: Could be several places, but I'll choose Walsall on the basis that iirc Walsall North is the constituency is the lowest amount of passport holders in the UK

East Midlands
Remain: Leicester
Leave: Somewhere in Lincolnshire. I'll pick the obvious one and go for Boston

East of England
Remain: Cambridge
Leave: Castle Point... Among several reasons, the LA with the lowest % anywhere in the UK for AV. Also a strong UKIP gain possibility.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do young voters resonate with Trump's divisive and racist rhetoric? Really? on: June 19, 2016, 09:17:29 am
I see people ignored my earlier post

Anyway, simple question: Why would young people vote for Trump? What rationale is there?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 19, 2016, 09:10:36 am
Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which country has been facing a bigger existential crisis lately, UK or US? on: June 18, 2016, 07:49:31 pm
The interesting thing is that Britishness is really a Scottish (and yeah also NORN ION) concept; there was never a question of two identities in England or even Wales, where 'British'* just = as you were plus an extra flag with a bit of blue on it.

*As a national-political identity. Obviously all parts of the islands are part of a distinctive cultural region, whether part of the United Kingdom now or in the future or not. And had been so long before the Act of Union.

Since Cromwell imo, if not the flight of the Earls.

EDIT: At least for Ireland, perhaps have to wait for the highland clearances for Scotland? But this is something I know nearly nothing about...
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 16, 2016, 06:16:30 am
They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.

Back to herding again, I see...
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 15, 2016, 07:19:42 pm
The following document should be helpful for people interested in how the count will be carried out, and result declared:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7588

Basically, the count will start once polls close at 10pm, and results will be declared (for counting areas) throughout the night.

The list of counting areas expected to complete the count before 1.30am is interesting:

Sunderland (North East): 12.30am
Wandsworth (London): 12.30am
City of London (London): 12.45am
Foyle (Northern Ireland): 12:30am
Hartlepool (North East): 1.00-1.30am
Newcastle upon Tyne (North East): 1.00am
Oldham (North West): 1.00am
Swindon (South West): 1.00am
West Tyrone (Northern Ireland): 1:00am
Belfast East (Northern Ireland):   1:15am
Belfast South (Northern Ireland): 1:15am
Belfast West (Northern Ireland): 1:15am

We'll have a good indication of how Northern Ireland has voted, and as for English local authorities, we've got a major northern city (Newcastle), a socially mixed London Borough (Wandsworth), three (ex-)industrial northern towns (Oldham, Hartlepool and Sunderland) and a 'swing' area in the south of England (Swindon).

Wrt Northern Ireland I believe those aren't declarations - just when individual constituency-based counts will be complete. For the actual declaration (just one), NI is to be declared as a single area as it was at the AV referendum. This annoys me as it means no breakdown of the results. At least that's how I understand it - if that is the case Northern Ireland will be (easily) the biggest single declaring area in the entire referendum.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 14, 2016, 10:43:31 am
Basically both main UK parties are steaming piles of garbage rn.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do young voters resonate with Trump's divisive and racist rhetoric? Really? on: June 14, 2016, 10:40:33 am
Conservative Parties are doing terrible among young people everywhere (in the west). This is probably as they are less receptive to traditional nationalist messages and (I think this is very important) much less likely to own significant property than even their counterparts of 30 years ago. Their problems will continue into the future.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 04, 2016, 05:45:09 pm
In Northern Ireland there's a classic case of "if my enemy is for it then I am against it" sectarianism (on both sides) and the nonactivist voters/nonsectarian activists lean towards Remain because they prefer an uneasy status quo than the risky promises of the fleg wavers.

PBP as you might expect is a protest partly. You might lend your first preference to them, but you don't have to, ah, listen to them.

The funny thing is a brexit would probably be better for the Nationalists' aims than the Unionists'.

No it wouldn't as it would leave the two parts of Ireland under different trading blocs with all that that implies.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 04, 2016, 11:39:12 am
Opinion polls have consistently indicated that the North East is the most pro-remain region in England outside London, whatever that's worth (probably not all that much).  As I feel I should make a prediction now that I've posted I'll say London, the three Celtic nations/provinces, the North East and North West will vote for Remain. The South East will be 50-50 and the others will vote to leave. The East Midlands and Eastern will be the strongest leave regions.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 03, 2016, 10:19:13 am
What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

If Remain win Thurrock then will probably win by at least 60% nationally. That whole part of Essex is likely to be one of the most pro-leave parts of the country.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2786 days ago on: May 27, 2016, 09:27:39 pm
God, I've been on this forum far too long.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Cruz/Fiorina be the most hideous ticket in the history of the Republic? on: May 24, 2016, 10:03:57 pm


Ooooooohhh... I want your explanation for this.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ban, ban, ta-taliban. Needs a new master, needs a new man. on: May 23, 2016, 05:21:09 pm
I have nothing to say on the issue other than 'good' but I do want to say that this must be the greatest thread title in Atlas history and should be appreciated as such.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Fans of Star Wars! What's your favorite movie in the franchise so far? on: May 21, 2016, 06:09:54 pm
My answer is basically the critical consensus: Empire and Hope are good, Return and Awakens are at least okay despite some flaws, and the prequels are garbage.

My only contrarian take is that The Phantom Menace, while still pretty bad, is a whole lot better than either of the other prequel films. I'm pretty sure that it was someone here - maybe Gully? - who helped to convince me of this.

Ftr it wasn't me. I would never make such an argument - because that would require me to think about the prequels more than I would want to.
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