Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2015, 11:07:24 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 444
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: Today at 09:08:16 am
Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

Speaking of which, have you heard the official reason Atheist Ireland came out for a 'No' vote in the Presidential Age referendum?

Because the referendum would not abolish the oath in which the President has to swear unto God. Seriously, yes.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 21, 2015, 02:08:18 pm
Wait, Stoke has a mix of multi-member and single-member wards? That doesn't seem like.... a good idea.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Edward Said on: May 21, 2015, 01:34:05 pm
His views on orientalism have been taken tragically seriously by too many people.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 21, 2015, 01:12:14 pm
Just to let everyone know, the vote for both referendums and the by-election is tomorrow.

Counting the result, however, will take place on Saturday.
5  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Will Deism ever make a major comeback (in the US)? on: May 21, 2015, 11:16:25 am
no
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 20, 2015, 01:21:29 pm

...
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: May 14, 2015, 09:20:19 am
The Liberals will finish third again
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 11, 2015, 08:51:43 pm
What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.

Fair enough. What I read was some chatter about getting their income tax rate as low as Ireland's to compete, which has a certain facial reasonableness, but would be difficult to grant to them. As soon as the UK has different income tax rates for different places, it seems to me that things start to fall apart.

The top rates of income taxes are higher here now (including Universal Social charge) than they are in the UK. What you are thinking of is Corporation Tax.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinon of the Previos Poster on: May 10, 2015, 09:22:37 pm
I have nothing against him
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 06:52:28 pm
Lib Dems in Wales. To sum up: lol

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 05:23:24 pm
Tories in Wales

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 10:13:31 am
Plaid

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeenshire West by-election pending? on: May 10, 2015, 09:45:07 am
I think he means Aberdeenshire East?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 09:03:26 am
Greens in Wales...

Like UKIP, very consistent level of support - only saving their deposit in Swansea West, Ceredigion, and Cardiff Central. All seats with universities.

15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 09, 2015, 09:47:57 pm
Here's a map using Al's template of UKIP in Wales



As you can see it's very even. In no seat did UKIP get over 20% of the vote and only in four did they get under 10% and then with no lost deposits. While there were a few second places, nowhere were they close to winning. Their worst results were in Cardiff then following by the Welsh speaking parts of Wales and Powys. Their best results in mostly in the valleys and around Deeside. In particularly they did well - scoring over 19% in three constituencies - in the Eastern Valleys. However, as I've tried to make clear, there was no real standout result.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:28:08 pm
Sinn Fein loses South Tyrone to UUP.

Really? Wow. I knew it was close last time but I assumed that was just because there was a single Unionist candidate.

There was also a single Unionist candidate this time
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:46:20 pm
BBC projecting a Tory gain in North East Derbyshire (?)

Well, rumours have been (such as they are) that the Tories are doing especially well in the East Midlands.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:18:23 pm
All I can say now is....

bloody hell.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 05, 2015, 08:47:00 am
This is a leaflet going around in Harrow East

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 04, 2015, 08:37:46 pm
So that's...

NI: UUP +1 AP -1
Wales: LAB +2 CON -1 LIB DEM -2 PLAID +1
Scotland: LAB -36 CON -1 LIB DEM -9 SNP +46
North-East: LAB +2 CON 0 LIB DEM -2
Yorkshire and the Humber: LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -2 RESPECT +1
North-West: LAB +12 CON -10 LIB DEM -2
West Midlands: LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -1
East Midlands: LAB +7 CON -7
Eastern: LAB +7 CON -9 LIB DEM 0 UKIP +2
London: LAB +8 CON -4 LIB DEM -4
South East: LAB +3 CON -3 LIB DEM -2 UKIP +2
South West: LAB +3 CON +6 LIB DEM -9

Overall... LAB +18 CON -35 LIB DEM -32 UKIP +4 SNP +46 Plaid +1 Respect +1 UUP +1 AP -1

Result: Labour 274 Conservative 271 Liberal Democrats 25 UKIP 4 SNP 52 Plaid 4 Respect 1 NI Parties 18
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 04, 2015, 08:23:46 pm
Alas, I'm not going to have time to complete my seat-by-seat analysis so I'm here going to make predictions on gains and losses per region

North-West

LAB gain from CON: Carlisle, City of Chester, Crewe and Nantwich, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Pendle, Rossendale and Darwen, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, Wirral West
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Burnley, Manchester Withington

LAB +12 CON -10 LIB DEM -2

Possible Wild Card: Barrow and Furness: Very unlikely to change hands but given the circumstances of this election, the town that builds nuclear submarines could be more SNPphobic than most and see a decent swing to the Tories.

West Midlands
LAB gain from CON: Cannock Chase, Halsowen and Rowley Regis, North Warwickshire, Wolverhampton South West
CON gain from LIB DEM: Solihull

LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -1

Wild Cards: Wyre Forest: UKIP are apparently strong in this seat and Doctor Taylor is running again. While the Tories are clearly favoured here there could be some interesting vote splitting and weird results. One to look out for.
Redditch: Because of the expenses scandal and the previous incumbent the Labour total from 2010 is probably artifically low. Perhaps a surprise gain?
Stafford: If Labour wins this then we can be pretty confident of a Labour government
Birmingham Edgbaston: Was a surprise Labour hold last time around as the incumbent Gisela Stuart has a big personal vote but if things go wrong for Labour in the West Midlands then this could be one of the Tory pickups.

East Midlands
LAB gain from CON: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, High Peak, Lincoln, Northampton North, Sherwood
LAB confirm gain from by-election: Corby

LAB +7 CON -7

Wild card: Boston and Skegness - Was UKIP's top target but picked an appalling candidate and has slipped away from attention. Still will be worth looking out for
Also what was said about Boston and Skegness can apply to the whole of Lincolnshire. How UKIP will do is one of the great mysteries of the election and if there is an unexpected surge in their support then it will be there among other places.

Eastern
LAB gain from CON: Bedford, Ipswich, Norwich North, Peterborough, Stevenage, Waveney
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Norwich South
UKIP gain from CON: Thurrock
LIB DEM gain from CON: Watford
UKIP confirm gain from by-election: Clacton

LAB +7 CON -9 UKIP +2 LIB DEM 0

Wild card: Castle Point - Ashcroft's last poll put UKIP five behind the Tories... which is comfortably within the MoE (and with 5% on 'others' when there are no other candidates in the race). So I'm surprised to see this written off as one of UKIP's best targets, which it is. Expect it to be close. And for the total right-wing vote to approach 90% in this seat with the most owner-occupiers with mortgages in the United Kingdom.
Also worth watching out for is South Essex, this region is likely to see the best UKIP scores in the United Kingdom and easy second places in safe Tory seats in Rayleigh and Wickford and Brentwood and Ongar. But the area is too much of a Tory bastion to see too much seat loses (UKIP are greatly advantaged in Thurrock as Labour are also quite strong there), or is it? If we get a totally big surprise and unforeseen UKIP gain, it might be here.

London
LAB gain from CON: Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, Enfield North, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Ilford North
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green
CON gain from LIB DEM: Carshalton and Wallington, Kingston and Surbiton

LAB +8 CON -4 LIB DEM -4

Wild Card: Hampstead and Kilburn - Area gentrifying and very close last them. The real question is: Where will all those Lib Dem votes go? A possible Tory gain from Labour

South East
LAB gain from CON: Hastings and Rye, Brighton Kemptown, Hove
CON gain from LIB DEM: Portsmouth South, Eastleigh
UKIP gain from CON: Thanet South
UKIP confirm by-election gain from CON: Rochester and Stroud

LAB +3 UKIP +2 CON -3 LIB DEM -2

Wild Cards: Portsmouth South - with the incumbent running as an independent and thus pissing off the Lib Dems that supported him for years - but they are still strong in the area - and decent UKIP and Labour votes this could be won with an unusually small margin. Have gone for a Tory gain, but god who knows?
Maidstone and the Weald: A possible Lib Dem gain here, unlikely but more likely than them holding onto about 20 of their present seats.

South West
LAB gain from CON: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Stroud
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Bristol West
CON gain from LIB DEM: Cheltenham, Chippenham, North Devon, Mid Dorset and North Poole, St Austell and Newquay, Somerton and Frome, Taunton Deane, Wells

LAB +3 CON +6 LIB DEM -9

Wild Cards: East Devon: Apparently there is a very strong independent running in this safe Tory seat... might be one to look out for?
Bournemouth-Poole-Christchurch conurbation: Possible good UKIP territory. Actually stretch that for a lot of the seaside resorts in this area of the world. And very underpolled too.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 04, 2015, 10:53:37 am
Labour 89
Lib Dems 89
Greens 82
SNP 80 (lol)
Plaid 77
Sinn Fein 73

Tories 33
UKIP 13
BNP 9
DUP 8

Apparently I'm closest to the voters of Ynys Mon than any other constituency (hahahahaha).
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 03, 2015, 06:36:39 pm
England should have a referendum as to whether they want Scotland to remain in the UK. The situation at this point, strikes me as kind of ludicrous. It really does not matter much really. It is not as if one needs a union to have a larger trade zone or for the common defense. So what is the point? And what was the justification for Scotland having too many seats in Parliament again?  And why are they voting on bills that have no impact on them locally? Isn't that like taxation without representation [responsibility for the consequences]?

Scotland is no longer over-represented in Parliament. That was resolved with the boundary review in the 2005-2010 parliament.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 03, 2015, 03:49:47 pm
Yorkshire and the Humber

North Yorkshire
SCARBOROUGH AND WHITBY - Decaying seaside towns and regional centre so I expect a) a good UKIP performance and b) a decent-sized above-average swing to Labour (the key word here is 'swing'). This will have not enough impact to change the overall result. CON HOLD
RICHMOND (YORKS) - Hague is retiring but this will, of course, make little difference to even the scale of Tory dominance here. Expect this to be among their highest majorities again, if not the highest. CON HOLD.
THIRSK AND MALTON - This whole area of Yorkshire is among the deepest blue of the Tory gene pool and, despite some issues over deselection, it is hard to see how anyone will get even close, especially considering the already 10,000+ plus majority is artifically low given the special circumstances of last time. CON HOLD.
YORK OUTER - This is a very oddly shaped constituency designed basically to take in suburbs and the regions around York city, almost a gerrymander to make sure York would be divided between a Tory-Lib Dem Marginal and a safe Labour seat. Well it is 2015 and the Lib Dem threat has receded nationally and there's no sign of this seat going any other way in the current environment. CON HOLD.
YORK CENTRAL - If York Outer was a seat designed to be a Tory-favoured marginal, this one was created to benefit Labour. A 6,000+ majority last time, not going to change this time. LAB HOLD.
SELBY AND AINSTY - Boundary changes for 2010 really didn't benefit Labour here and there was a collapse in their vote in 2010 (-17.1 points) possibly due to the incumbent retiring. Given the size of the majority and the demographic profile, little change is forseen. CON HOLD.
HARROGATE AND KNARESBOROUGH - This is the sort of market town where the Lib Dem vote might hold up somewhat. But enough to win? Seems rather unlikely. CON HOLD.
SKIPTON AND RIPON - The Lib Dems were a distant second last time. Will do well to repeat that performance. CON HOLD.

West Yorkshire (Placeholder - will put analysis later)
KEIGHLEY - LAB GAIN
CALDER VALLEY - CON HOLD
COLNE VALLEY - LAB GAIN
HALIFAX - LAB HOLD
HUDDESFIELD - LAB HOLD
DEWSBURY - LAB GAIN
BATLEY AND SPEN - LAB HOLD (but don't bet against a swing to the Tories)
BRADFORD SOUTH - LAB HOLD
BRADFORD WEST - RESPECT CONFIRM GAIN FROM BY-ELECTION (alas)
BRADFORD EAST - LAB GAIN
SHIPLEY - CON HOLD
PUDSEY - CON HOLD
LEEDS NORTH WEST - LAB GAIN
LEEDS NORTH EAST - LAB HOLD
LEEDS EAST - LAB HOLD
LEEDS CENTRAL - LAB HOLD
LEEDS WEST - LAB HOLD
MORLEY AND OUTWOOD - Given that the Tories failed to 'decapitate' Ed Balls in 2010, their chances this time around can't be so rosy, despite the incessant ramping. LAB HOLD.
WAKEFIELD - LAB HOLD (although might be one of the better chances of a Tory Gain from Labour)
HEMSWORTH - LAB HOLD
NORMANTON, PONTEFRACT, AND CASTLEFORD - LAB HOLD
ELMET AND ROTHWELL - CON HOLD

South Yorkshire
DONCASTER NORTH - Obviously a UKIP/CLARKSON GAIN... nahh, you know how this one will end. LAB HOLD.
DONCASTER CENTRAL - LAB HOLD
DON VALLEY - LAB HOLD
ROTHER VALLEY - LAB HOLD (but... expect an unusually good UKIP performance)
ROTHERHAM - LAB HOLD
WENTWORTH AND DEARNE - Given the Rotherham scandal there is a ridiculous amount of UKIP ramping in this seat. They won't be anywhere near close. LAB HOLD.
BARNSLEY EAST - LAB HOLD
BARNSLEY CENTRAL - What I said about South Shields earlier also applies here. UKIP's second should be seen as a sign of non-Labour weakness not any real UKIP potential. LAB HOLD.
PENINSTONE AND STOCKBRIDGE - LAB HOLD (but another with good UKIP potential, given local results)
SHEFFIELD HALLAM - So we come to one of the closest watched seats of the election. Nick Clegg is being challenged by Labour in this very non-Labour seat. Despite Ashcroft's polls the overall nature of the consistency is not very favourable to a left-wing challenge to a man who in many ways has become the face of 'the establishment' since 2010 (remember Cleggmania? lol). There isn't enough students here and Conservative voters will probably rally to Clegg in his defense. So a narrow hold but I hope I'm wrong. LIB DEM HOLD.
SHEFFIELD HEELEY - LAB HOLD
SHEFFIELD CENTRAL - LAB HOLD (possibly Greens in second).
SHEFFIELD BRIGHTSIDE AND HILLSBOROUGH - LAB HOLD
SHEFFIELD SOUTH EAST - LAB HOLD

'Humberside'
EAST YORKSHIRE - Absurdly named seat, clear result. CON HOLD.
BEVERLEY AND HOLDERNESS - CON HOLD.
HALTEMPRICE AND HOWDEN - CON HOLD.
HULL WEST AND HESSLE - LAB HOLD
HULL NORTH - LAB HOLD.
HULL EAST - LAB HOLD.
CLEETHORPES - CON HOLD
GREAT GRIMSBY - LAB HOLD
SCUNTHORPE - LAB HOLD
BRIGG AND GOOLE - CON HOLD.

So that's Lab +4 Con -3 LD -2 Respect +1
Giving overall Labour 35, Conservatives 16, Lib Dems 1 and Respect 1.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 03, 2015, 09:28:24 am
Finally pundits have a moment that they will compare to the Sheffield rally should Labour lose.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 444


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines