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January 23, 2017, 02:05:26 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday on: January 22, 2017, 10:49:28 am
It would be interesting to know if anyone has quantified the economic detriment to the UK of not being in the EU comment market, versus the economic benefit to the UK of becoming part of a US common market. It having a clue as to what the data is, as a guess it would seem to me that it might be close to a wash.

Will the UK have any say in the rules of this 'US common market'?
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to meet with Theresa May on Friday on: January 22, 2017, 10:48:48 am
ag,you missed your calling.  You really should have been a comedian.  Yes, there will be economic pain in the UK, but the idea that they'll be desperate to join the EE (European Empire) as a result is ludicrous.  If nothing else, it'll be easier for any excess labor to come to the US than the EE and I doubt we'll be any tougher on illegal English immigrants than we have been on illegal Irish immigrants in the past.

The real barrier to any deal is that it would probably require the UK to liberalize its pharmaceutical pricing regime, which would vastly increase the costs of the NHS.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europeans see Trump very negatively on: January 20, 2017, 08:53:45 pm
Ask these same people their thoughts on Muslims and immigrants. You'll get some very hypocritical responses.

Nationalists from Country X don't understand and disapprove of Nationalists from Country Y. Film at 11.

And yet, somehow, they're almost all in love with Putin (aside from the obvious exceptions). Go figure.

Hitler had a bit of the same effect. I think the main reason is that Putin is not merely a Russian nationalist, but more of a white imperialist. He does see himself (and Russia) as the hope of the White cause.  So, though, of course, in his objectives other White people should be subordinate to the Russians, he still gives them a sufficiently elevated position in the New World Order for them to enjoy it. And, of course, financial contribution helps.

Also he's a distant figure who while clearly powerful doesn't have nearly enough power to interfere (in a violent or non-clandestine way) in Western countries power and social structures. Obviously though when Russia is closer, nationalists - even if those who would be pro-Putin if further west - feel less comfortable with him.
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europeans see Trump very negatively on: January 20, 2017, 08:13:44 pm
Ask these same people their thoughts on Muslims and immigrants. You'll get some very hypocritical responses.

Nationalists from Country X don't understand and disapprove of Nationalists from Country Y. Film at 11.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Nigel Farage is joining FOX News on: January 20, 2017, 04:20:34 pm
man, we export a lot of garbage

Obviously this is part of the new US-UK Free Trade Agreement
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite Poster: Best of the Best on: January 18, 2017, 02:57:23 pm
Fair enough. I still think that finding T***p "hilarious" constitutes a lapse in moral judgment, but I won't pretend it's the sort of lapse I'm never guilty of.

This is a bleak universe. You take what pleasures you can get.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite Poster: Best of the Best on: January 17, 2017, 04:08:14 pm
He was one of those awful semi-ironic left-wing T***p supporters back in the day.

Really?  I actually don't remember that at all.  IIRC, he was posting very little during primary season, and I don't remember him commenting on Trump.

I remember an IRC chat in which he said that very explicitly (along with, sadly, Gully, whom undoubtedly should have known better). I also note he hasn't denied it.

Me? An ironic Trump supporter? No, I don't think so. I have to admit I found Trump hilarious - and quite frankly despite everything - I still sort of do. But I don't think I ever bought into the delusion that he was a 'joke' candidate (rather, I made one huge error of judgement - thinking that sufficient GOP voters would turn off against Trump so he would lose, what I didn't realize is pretty much all those people had stopped voting GOP a long while ago).

Ftr, like Mikado, once Trump started leading the polls long enough that it was clear that he wasn't a 'flavour of the month' I thought he would win the nomination. Because I tend to trust polls, for my sins. And still do, at least in comparison to CW.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which European country has a political divide most similar to the US? on: January 11, 2017, 02:13:06 pm
The only semi coherent answer to this is France actually.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Sun Yat Sen on: January 06, 2017, 02:17:10 pm
The Chinese Mazzini.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sum Up 2016 In 1 Sentence on: December 28, 2016, 11:17:02 pm
What's love got to do with it?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Thomas Sowell retires on: December 27, 2016, 07:25:37 pm
Perfect timing. Just when his ideological worldview is about to be shattered to pieces.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College Students Are Ridiculously Infuriating Safe-Space/Mega-thread on: December 27, 2016, 07:12:42 pm
College campuses have always been a breeding ground for left wing nutjobs

Literally none of this is new

Yeah, this thread is just a consistent reminder that today's students are ridiculously unradical. In the 60's students would have considered it a success if they threw their administrators from the building and became a radical self-governed organisation. Today, it is considered a success if the admin promise they will think about introducing gender neutral language in internal memos.

In both cases though, the problem is the admin not fulfilling some ideological norm.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Name something you likely disagree with the preceding poster on on: December 22, 2016, 06:34:45 pm
His preaching skills.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Johnson v Stein on: December 22, 2016, 08:52:22 am
I did this map of Johnson v Stein, I originally planned to put Johnson in Blue and Stein in Green before realizing that there was no state in which Stein outpolled Johnson so switched Johnson to Green because it looks better.

Each shade represents a difference of one percentage point, so I 30%> is where Johnson beat Stein by less than 1PP, 40%> between 1 and 2PP and so on. This shading covers every state, except for New Mexico, which would require an 100% Green shade, I just used the darkest one available, luckily no other state was that colour.

I excluded the six states where Stein was not fully on the ballot - I've put those in Gray

.

Some Comments:
1) Despite some wondering whether Johnson could finish second in DC, he almost finished fourth. This was the closest of all 51 Jurisdictions.
2) The narrow margins in the South are largely down to the weakness of the Third Party vote in general - Mississippi, for instance, was Johnson's worst state
3) The gap between the two in Vermont was 1.04 Percentage Points - Bernie got over 6% in write-ins so it is hard not to imagine that Stein would have beaten Johnson if the write-in option was not available
4) Similarly, in Idaho and Utah and a couple of other states Johnson underperformed because of McMullen.
5) Does anyone have a breakdown of all the write-ins by state?
6) I tried finding all the counties where Stein outperformed Johnson - so far I have all Hawaii counties except Honolulu, Multinomah, OR, all the NYC counties except Staten Island, Sagauche County, CO, Prince George's, MD, The two Native American counties in North Dakota which Hillary won (including Sioux County, ND which was Stein's best county) and a couple of coastal NoCal and SF bay area counties in CA (including SF itself, Santa Cruz, and Alameda). I suspect there might be a couple in the Deep South where the votes for both candidates was miniscule but I haven't checked yet.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of modern social democratic parties? on: December 21, 2016, 07:53:02 pm
Here's something depressing: the ALP actually is one of the most competent social Democratic parties at the moment.


That's the most depressing thing I read today.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 20, 2016, 03:59:21 pm
The reason I said she has a chance is that a Bernie Domestic Policy and a Trump Foreign Policy is probably a runner right-now.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who were dumber this cycle? on: December 20, 2016, 03:52:40 pm
To note to answer to this, just ask this question: If Sanders had won the nomination, would the Democrats have rallied around him like the vast part of the GOP did for Trump? (SPOILER: They wouldn't).
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 19, 2016, 08:06:28 am
People may laugh, but there's actually a significant non-zero chance of this happening.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: should Democrats stop thinking of Wisconsin as a rust belt state? on: December 15, 2016, 03:56:24 pm
No. The 'Rust Belt' refers to a socio-economic phenomenon, not to how a place votes.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Clinton lost Michigan - and blew the election on: December 15, 2016, 03:54:24 pm
What precisely was Clinton offering poor white voters in the Rust Belt exactly?

Clinton: Let's put the mines out of business
Trump: Jobs! Jobs!  Mexico! Jobs!

Guess what, kids, outsourcing is unpopular... which is why Obama ran against it in 2008 and then, in the best tradition of the Democratic party, did nothing
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Romney on: December 15, 2016, 09:17:22 am
It is changes in vote share, not margin... you can find those maps elsewhere.

Anyway, I made a series of these (because bored at work), first of all:

Trump vs McCain


Blue wins this map, and the problems we had with Utah continue and now will start to apply to West Virginia. D/R 90%> is anything above 12 percentage points ftr. Of interest, here: Indiana and Alaska, which show the greatest GOP drop in this period outside of Utah mainly down to Palin no longer being on the ballot I would suppose.

Trump v Bush 2004 (i.e. The Last GOP victory)


One thing to note about these four elections: Oklahoma has been ridiculously stable in its GOP vote share. But not even in the Rust Belt did Trump really improve upon W, only in Appalachia did he make big gains. We must not forget that West Virginia is an anomaly.

Trump v Bush 2000


Now this is more interesting, as Bush lost the popular vote too we can get a better picture which isn't so distorted by the national result. A few things: lol Florida, note the DC Metro area, and Vermont really is unusual in New England.

Now, let's get strange...

Trump vs Ford 76


Here there are quite a few states - in the West, in the South and New England where the change is more than 12 points and many more where it is above 10. This looks much more like a modern election map (unsurprisingly) although there are some strange ones, like Nebraska. Also clear that at this point Florida, Texas, and North Carolina were not like the rest of the South. And Virginia too, obviously. Also is Pennsylvania really unambiguously part of the North East? Trump did worse in Wisconsin than Bush either time or Gerald Ford, but unlike them all, he won the state.

And Finally, Nixon 1960


Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia again. Rhode Island also stands out, and Wyoming. All three West Coast states are 12%+ changes against the GOP, as is Maine and Vermont (RIP Alf Landon). DC couldn't vote in 1960, but I'm pretty sure that Nixon would have done better than Trump's 4% - Nixon in 1968 got 18% after all.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I will now accept my accolades on: December 14, 2016, 02:55:30 pm
RIP Bono FF.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump v Romney on: December 14, 2016, 02:37:27 pm


This is a map I made quickly comparing Trump's performance to Romney's four years ago. The blue states are those where Trump overperformed Romney in terms of percentage points. The red states are those where Trump underperformed Romney in percentage points terms. The shading represents a 2 point difference - so the lightest blue shade is where Trump overperformed Romney by 2 points or less, the 40%> Blue shade is 2 to 4 points, 50%> blue is 4 to 6 shade, and so on and the reverse for the 'red states'. This is all using the current figures on this website. I was too lazy to figure out the differences for the Maine and Nebraska Congressional districts. Errors are possible.

A couple of comments:

1) Despite Trump winning and Romney losing, if this were an electoral map 'red' would win comfortably with over 300 EVs. This, more than anything else, really shows the impact third parties had. Don't forget that Stein outperformed Johnson 2012, 2016 was an unusual race.

2) Actually the Utah shading underestimates the massive drop in the vote for the Republican candidate from 2012, but unfortunately Dave's calculator does not have a D 140%> shade

3) Apart from Utah, the areas where Trump dropped the most were the Sun Belt and the Northwest.

4) The state which Trump gained the most from Romney wasn't West Virginia, it was North Dakota... and this despite a strong Johnson vote. What's going on here? EDIT: Actually, no, this is wrong. It was West Virginia, then Iowa, and then North Dakota. This is what I get from relying memory. Speaking of which, Iowa WTH?

5) Yes, despite Trump almost winning Minnesota he actually dropped 0.04 percentage points from Romney, it's just that Third Parties ate into the Clinton vote.

6) lol Chicago

7) Amazingly Minnesota wasn't even the closest 'gap', that would be Arkansas - whose change is less than 1/100th of a percentage point, and required me to put all the figures into excel to calculate the difference.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The idea that a bigtime economic liberal would struggle in virginia....why? on: December 12, 2016, 07:11:05 pm
Because they are Tories, who vote Democratic because the Republicans are uncultured and hostile to them, which they weren't in, say, 2004 when Bush won NOVA.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has New Mexico become a permanent Blue State? on: December 12, 2016, 07:09:12 pm
Trump did unusually well among very old Spanish-speaking communities in the north of the state (as in communities that have been there since before 1844). Whether another Republican could repeat that success in a Presidential election, well...we'll see.
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