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8851  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistricting...Ireland? on: September 07, 2007, 01:03:21 pm
DUBLIN - Part II (Northside & Lucan):

Dublin - Liffey Valley:

Constituency Includes (South of the River) Lucan, Adamstown and Ronanstown and (North of the River) Carpenterstown, Clonsilla, Castleheany, Littlepace, Mulhuddart and Corduff. Border defined west of Blanchardstown, Slightly north of Corduff and Slightly south of Lucan. Constituency does not include the main Blanchardstown-Castleknock area.

The area of Dublin filled with working-class commuter suburbs and has a major rates of employment in the Construction sector and service firms, with significant levels of alienation with the political status quo (Check out voter turn-outs for Dublin West and Dublin Mid-West and see what I mean.) The population of area has exploded in the past 25 years leaving this area with very little rural votes - not enough to be relevant anyway. The South end of this constituency is slightly more affulent than it's north; which contains some of Dublin's most notorious areas - like Mulhuddart, which has a very noteworthy crime rate. Though there are splatterings of Middle class suburban development about but these are in minority around the more western face of the constituency. Despite this the general attitude of those who do vote tends to be conservative generally, though this area has elected ultra-left mavericks like Joe Higgins in the past. (One Interesting fact about Dublin politics; Dublin is divided up into four counties for adminstrative purpose - in three of which at Present the Labour party holds the most seats; though never a majority. The area covered by this constituency - Fingal county (well.. mostly) doesn't really have a Sinn Fein vote and most of the Fianna Fail vote seems to be personal (or pro-goverment), Despite this I still think it will go CnaG though rapidly changing demographics here (really high number of immigrants aswell) put the question up into the air.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Pat Carey (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - City of Dublin

Constituency Includes The main north Inner city - Sackville (O'Connell) street area, The North Wall, Stoneybatter, Smithfield, The Phoenix Park aswell as the inner suburbs of Drumcondra, Cabra and Fairview. Borders defined south of Ashtown and Glasnevin, and South East of Artane.

The North Inner City in Dublin has become connected in the public mind with slum clearances, run down inner suburbs, Heroin addiction and many other inner city woes. Though the area is yuppifying at a tremendous pace with major reconstruction projects in Stoneybatter and Smithfield (ignore the anolomy..) aswell as the major Docklands development this is still an overwhelming working class area with perhaps the highest concentration of Council housing in the entire Republic (though perhaps not for much longer; certainly the native "northsiders" are continously being pushed out my the extreme demand for property, any property, in the city centre.) aswell as perhaps the highest number of immigrants - voter turnout tends to be among the lowest in the nation; even with our current Lord and Chief being based in Drumcondra and also records a dramatically low Fine Gael vote (In Dublin especially, there is a perception of Fine Gael being a Middle class party). Tends to like "populist" and "ordinary joe" politicians and dislikes typical university carpetbagger types, has a strong nationalist SF vote - as does all of the Inner city; especially the north side. But there would also be a strong element of union with Britain to continue among important employers, especially in the Docklands and in construction would make people lean towards Labour. Would be close between them and CnaG. The Irish Parliamentary Party would have a negilable presence. Tony Gregory would be it's current 'maverick' Labour MP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tony Gregory (Labour)

Dublin - Bayside

Constituency Includes Marino, Clontarf, Dollymount, Killester, North Bull Island, Raheny, Baldoyle, Bayside, Sutton, Howth and Portmarnock. Borders defined just North of Portmarnock along the North end of Dublin Bay.

Another rapidly changing area with more traditional industry dominant; but significantly more middle class containing areas like Portmarnock (famous for golf) and Sutton. Aswell as Howth, which combines old seaside town with highly desirable property mainly for rich with it's main economic bulk based upon fish, It's the East coast's biggest fish port and it's hard to see love for new EU regulations here. The more southern end of the constituency is alot more working class (Raheny is the home of Roddy Doyle and is the sort of place associated with "North Dublinese" for anyone whose read his early novels or seen The commitments) though this part of the constituency is emptying with the flight away from the inner city with many of it's traditional inhabitants going northwards or even out of the County Dublin area. It would probably be a three way marginal in parts - I have given it to Labour as SF sympathy doesn't seem to be too strong here and FG do better here than most areas of Inner North Dublin but it could either of three ways.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tommy Broughan (Labour)

Dublin - Finglas

Constituency Includes Finglas, Finglas North, Glasnevin North, Glasnevin, Ashtown, Kildonan. Borders defined west of Santry-DCU, north east of Carpentstown and south just above Kildonan.

This is again another mainly working class\lower-middle class constituency on the north side of Dublin, with notable pockets of poverty around the Finglas area - In the 70s and 80s unemployment, even by standards of the time, was unbelievably high. Like most of Dublin, Construction is a major employer and there is an increased gentrification due to the high demand to have city centre property, with many new apartment blocks being built across the area at semi-affordable rents, though there is still some rural pockets in it's west end around Kildonan. There is also a couple of notable industrial estates in the north end of the constituency which are mainly foreign owned Pharmaceuticals, IT, etc despite this most of the towns here are basically commuter in nature. Turnout tends to be fairly low in elections with Fianna Fail taking roughly half the vote over the Three constituencies - Dublin North Central, Dublin Central, Dublin North West and Dublin North East. Labour in recent years have been stronger than Fine Gael here and there is a significant SF presence. Tends to be rather populist in nature and votes for incumbents regularly. Like plently in this region (and the country in general) it would turn strongly against Thatcher in the 1980s, hard with her around to see it not going for an independance party and sticking to it, despite the economic boom playing a major part in something of a mini-revival here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Haughey (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - Coolock & Ballymun

Constituency Includes Coolock, Darndale, Edenmore, Donaghmede, Whitehall, Dublin City University, Ballymun. Borders defined slightly south of Santry, north of Darndale and east of Edenmore.

Despite the inclusion of Dublin College University (DCU) - whose courses tend to be more business and technically orientated and thus less to likely to have a strong liberal lean than the wealthier southside universities anyway - This is not an area of Dublin known for it's liberalism. For many Irish people the word Ballymun brings to mind images of Tower blocks, inner city decline, blight, crime and all that entails. Like most of the other constituencies mentioned here there has been in recent years significant redevelopment and the infamous tower blocks which blighted sky here and were in 70s heradled as the solution to Ireland's property 'crisis', have been demolished. Despite increasing affluence here this is still by relative standards a pretty poor constituency with middle class enclaves in Coolock, which like most of the region is mainly driven by construction and foreign industry aswell as the predictable service firms. What has been said already for the North Inner Dublin constituencies also applies here - and the way it votes would be dependant on a number of factors, The distance it feels between it and westminster, the level of investment and most importantly in Ireland, Tradition. The whole region would likely vote en masse for one party and there is a significant and genuine very left-wing presence in the area. In British terms as said before it's pretty safe Labour seat, but Irish terms.. Would industrial workers desire independance or not and how much would the boom effect voting patterns (I'm assuming there still is a major boom, it hasn't really effected voting patterns much in Irish elections, but this is very different as a scenario) would be the key questions. In the 70s and 80s theses seats would be strongly CnaG and I will stick with them for here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Finian McGrath (Clann na nGael)

8852  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which do you hate more? on: September 07, 2007, 07:41:02 am
Movies. Only due to your 10 rating for Independance day.
8853  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceding signuture part 2? on: September 07, 2007, 07:40:29 am
Random stuff involving cats.
8854  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistricting...Ireland? on: September 07, 2007, 07:29:21 am
I'm not finished yet - I still have the Northside to do. Smiley

Back later, I have to finally leave the internets soon.
8855  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: September 07, 2007, 07:28:34 am
Kerry is likely to be merged into one five-seat constituency and Louth is to gain a seat iirc. But the big problem for Labour here is that alot of their traditional vote has gone to SF. In Kerry also alot of that vote seemed to be personal; so what hope labour without Dick Spring or the Moyninhans?

Look at 1992 and where Labour gained, not just in the particular obvious places but Clare, Laois-Offaly, Sligo-Leitrim, Two seats in Dublin North East (Both gains).. they lost all but one of those (Broughan's seat in DNE) in 1997 and have never came close to getting them back, and almost certainly have no chance now.

Of course you are correct that alot of Labour's vote depend on how well the Greens do in Goverment (or rather; how well they do in Goverment in regards to satisfying their 'base'.)
8856  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceding signuture part 2? on: September 07, 2007, 07:08:19 am
Typical of Al. Smiley
8857  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistricting...Ireland? on: September 07, 2007, 07:07:45 am
Dublin is to get 14 constituencies, 7 and a half on the Southside, 6 and a half on the Northside - one has to straddle both sides. So, Dear Afleitch, Produce a map for the Greater Dublin area, please. Wink

DUBLIN - Part I: Southside.

Dublin - Shelbourne & Ringsend:

Constituency Includes Trinity College, The Dame Street Area, The Grafton\Dawson\Kildare Street area (Kildare street is where our current politicos meet), St Stephens Green, Merrion Square, Ballsbridge, The Shelbourne Road, Landsdowne Road, Ringsend, Irishtown, Sandymount, Rathmines, Donnybrook and Ranelagh. Borders defined as south of the river liffey, east of Patrick's street and north of University College Dublin

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Ruairi Quinn (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - The Liberties & Drimnagh:

Constituency Includes The Liberties, Cork and Thomas Street Areas, Rialto, Dolphins Barn, Kilmainham, Islandbridge, Inchicore & East Drimnagh. Borders defined as south of the River liffey, west of Patrick's street, East of Ballyfermot and North of Crumlin and Harold's Cross.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary Upton (Labour)

Dublin - Ballyfermot & Clondalkin:

Constituency Includes Ballyfermot, West Drimnagh, Palmerstown, Crumlin, Kimmage, Walkinstown & Clondalkin Borders defined north of Tallaght, south of the liffey and west of Terenure.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brian Lehinan (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - Kingstown:

Constituency Includes Kingstown (Dun Laoghaire), Glasthule, Sandycove, Dalkey, Killiney, Deans Grange, Cornelscourt, Shankill And Loughlinstown. Borders Defined south of Blackrock, North of Co. Wicklow and West of Carrickmines and Leopardstown.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary Hannafin (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - Donnybrook & Milltown:

Constituency Includes Donnybrook, Rathgar, Windy Arbour, Booterstown, Blackrock, Merrion, Mount Merrion, University College Dublin, Milltown, Closkeagh, Churchtown, Willbrook and Rathfarnham.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Alan Shatter (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - South County

Constituency Includes Leopardstown, Sandyford (AKA home Smiley ), Ballinteer, Dundrum, Foxrock, Cabinteely, Kilternan, Stepaside, Stillorgan, Glencullen Rathmichael, Old Connaught, Ballybrack, Ticknock, Rockbrook, Ballycullen, South Oldcourt, Edmondstown, Willbrook, South Jobstown, Ballymana, Lugmore and Rathcoole Borders Defined at just north of the M50 motorway at sandyford and west of the M50 at Shankill and south of Tallaght and Clondalkin and North of County Wicklow.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Olivia Mitchell (Irish Parliamentary Party).. ugghh..

Dublin - Tallaght:

Constituency Includes Greater Tallaght Area, Oldbawn, Greenhills, Kilmanagh, Knocklyon, Ballyboden, Templeogue & Jobstown. Boundaries defined east of Sagart, West of Ballyboden, South of Clondalkin and North of Olcourt.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Charlie O' Connor (Clann na nGael)

Analysis to come..
8858  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Predict how the previous forumite will die on: September 07, 2007, 03:26:38 am
Watching a very craptacular remake of a David Lynch movie ala the South Park episode where they remade Raiders of the lost Ark.

I can see it now...

Spielberg: "Hand over the film David, we need to make the alterations..."

And all the Guns will be replaced by Walkie-talkies..........
8859  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Predict how the previous forumite will die on: September 07, 2007, 03:13:38 am
Watching a very craptacular remake of a David Lynch movie ala the South Park episode where they remade Raiders of the lost Ark.
8860  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceding signuture part 2? on: September 07, 2007, 03:06:23 am
Is taking a pee really classified as a 'performance' now? Interesting...
8861  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which of the following are immoral? on: September 07, 2007, 03:05:19 am
Capital Punishment - Always

Abortion - Under certain circumstances, especially if used as a mere subistute for the Morning After Pill.

All the others are not immoral, but some are just retarded. Like Smoking and Binge Drinking.
8862  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Grade the preceding poster's politics... on: September 06, 2007, 06:50:38 pm
8863  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: NPAT Test: National Security and Terrorism on: September 06, 2007, 06:02:10 pm
Bring the troops home from Iraq and use them to secure our borders.
Deport all illegal aliens
Deport anyone who overstays their visa.
Don't allow people from hostile  countries into the US except when there are extremely compelling reasons.
Develop and implement a missile defense system capable of stopping at least a small attack. ( I think this already exists. )
Monitor mosques in the US. Deport or prosecute anyone  promoting violence against the US.
Tighten screening at ports to reduce the risk of WMDs being shipped in.

Change our foreign policy so that we are not doing things to deliberately antagonize others. Bring most of our troops home from foreign countries.

You're a pretty fascist libertarian

I voted for 3, 4 and 5 btw. Though I'd like more detail on 3 and 4. Especially does #3 refer to cases like Pakistan where the goverment funds Madrassa schools or cases like Germany where many of the 9\11 highjackers were based (and there was a recent foiled terrorist plot or so it seemed...) or both.
8864  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: September 06, 2007, 05:52:10 pm
Interesting that in England, Scotland, and now Ireland, the respective Labour parties have all changed leaders in non-contests. Rhodri Morgan and Mark Durkan watch out!

It would be very surprising if there's no contest when Morgan retires (most likely in 2009). Rumoured candidates include:

Carwyn Jones (Bridgend)
Andrew Davies (Swansea West)
Edwina Hart  (Gower)
Huw Lewis (Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Leighton Andrews (Rhondda)
Jane Davidson (Pontypridd)

It'd be very surprising if Lewis and Andrews both run, ditto some of the other "candidates".

You had to ruin the Atmosphere, man....

In my mini-Conspiracy theory I should have also said "and make Fianna Fail an excuse to weasel out of their promise to cut the top rate of Income tax" but hey it's not like Fianna Fail to make Sh*t up in their manifesto, now is it? (Yes, Yes, I know all parties do it, but FF have a peculiar history..)

I'm still amazed that Dick Spring didn't decide to go for the FG + DL option immediatly, hell both Lab + DL got over 40 seats in that election. Now together they're only on 20... (and there are very few actual gains, a second seat in Wicklow, Dun Laoghaire - maybe, a seat in Dublin South, both Tipperary's, Kerry and Louth... Possible in level of likelyhood. They will probably lose Galway West if Michael D retires and Waterford if Brian O'Shea does likewise...)
8865  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistricting...Ireland? on: September 06, 2007, 04:37:07 pm
No comments since my last apperance.... Sad

Well, I'm reading with interest if not commenting. Like I said, there's just so many variables at play.

What I find most interesting is that you have two Irish parties in play in Clann na Gael and the Irish Parliamentary Party. I'd be more inclined to believe that as with pre-independence, there would probably be one strong party (if having divergent wings of varying commital to constitutionalist means) competing against the 'normal' British parties.

I'd also find it very difficult to classify constituencies along Lab/Con/LDem lines given just how Irish politics has evolved - i.e. much less clear ideologies; more localist in outlook (or maybe I'm wrong ?)

Anyhow, your work is still very interesting. By and large, a good effort at constituency drawing (I'll pretend I didn't see Lower Shannonside Wink)

I assuming here there is Home Rule, and thus some sort of Opposition develops to the Status Quo which would develop in a 1920s devolved parliament (This Scenario breaks off from normal history in that there is no Easter Rising..), with the rising anger and discontement with the political status Quo sort some of opposition would have to emerge - Unlikely to the British Labour Party for various reasons, more likely a radical nationalist outfit (Perhaps led by a certain O'Duffy or maybe even a certain and very alive M Collins? Of course, a certain E D. Valera would remain a maths teacher till the end of his days in this alternative.) which could unite the different strains of radical Irish nationalism.. Jim Larkin Trade Unionism, Pearse Brand nationalism, Old Style Fenians and United Irishmen, Connolyism (and what role would Larkin, Pearse, Connoly, McDonnagh, et al have in this alternative history where they don't die in Prison in 1916.. now that's the big question mark.) Of course, after 1940 things get even more dependant on variables, especially with Ireland being WWII at this time.
8866  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Grade the preceding poster's politics... on: September 06, 2007, 03:08:09 pm
Actually Political Views... A-

Political figures he associates himself with... C- at best.
8867  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What's the last movie you've seen? on: September 06, 2007, 03:06:45 pm
Today I watched Hallam Foe.

If you like slightly Creepy Indie films then yes this is appropriate.. though I can't ever remember seeing a movie I felt more embarassed for the Characters in my life.
8868  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Oliver Cromwell on: September 06, 2007, 03:00:08 pm
@Jas: Of course there were many negative things about Cromwell's reign, his authoritian puritianism especially towards Catholics, his decision in the end to hand over the commonwealth to his son (though that was soon recinded), the growth of charlatanism thanks to politics towards Witchcraft (Until Hawk brought it up, I forgot that Hopkins was during "the commonwealth".) and of course his Irish policies (Though I've play them into the context of the time - they were then 'played' by what were considered then to be the normal rules of war - thus my point about the Drogheda massacre - not that I justify that in the slightest). My main point was to rebutt the typical nationalist verbatim which follows any discussion about Cromwell's Ireland policies forgetting some of the more positive impact of reign.

Cromwell to me is a figure is too far distant in time to really pass any true moral judgement, he should perhaps be seen somewhat in the same light as say, The Emperor Augustus or even, Elizabeth I, people of dubious morals who in the end led to some positive results (if intentional or not).

I actually don't really contest much of that at all.
But even judging him in the context of this time, I just think he did far more damage than good - hence 'villain' and not 'hero'.

But you're an Irish Catholic, you WOULD say that wouldn't you? Wink
8869  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which avatar best suits the preceding poster? on: September 06, 2007, 02:57:21 pm
Given your declared love of the Irish public transport system, there can only be one choice...


It's funny you should mention that on a day I stuck in Maynooth for an hour waiting for a train, and then for about 20 minutes waiting for Train to actually ing move (and then not knowing for another 10 minutes whether I was actually going to Dublin (Connolly) or to Purgatory, sorry, Longford. I swear to god, Brits don't know how well they have it with their "Private Rail".

But as someone who lives on the Green LUAS line, it's not all bad. It's one of few the Irish have ever done with some competence.

As for Jas himself - I can only suggest he can go and:

!!!!! Wink
8870  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: September 06, 2007, 02:50:35 pm
He has said that they will fight the next election as an independent party not allying with anyone else and set the rather ambitious target of 30 seats.

... Which is five years away (even If the greens decide to catipulate Bertie still has enough of a majority; thus my ever growing conspiracy theory towards why the Greens are in goverment - Scape goats for new Enviormental taxes to be levied due to an increasing deficit - which is due to the decline in the Housing market.)

Of course what do Labour plan to do after 2012 even if they get 30 seats? I assume now Gilmore is going to take a "wait and see" approach. And It's hard to see where Labour could pick up an extra 10 - perhaps a barrier on 5 at most - and that is if no-one retires.
8871  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: September 06, 2007, 02:41:02 pm
Since last post Eamonn Gilmore (Lab; Dun Laoghaire) has been elected leader of the labour party in a non-contest. ;(

So thats yet another failure for the Labour party come 2012.. I can't really see what Gilmore brings to the table outside of Dun Laoghaire and Dublin South where I imagine they might gain seats from the Greens depending on how things turn out (Here in DS labour would have probably won a seat if not for the disaster which was running two candidates). Again consolidating Labour's image as a "Dublin" Party.

8872  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: NPAT Test: Immigration on: September 06, 2007, 02:28:10 pm
3 and 5

8873  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: 33 Questions About American History You're Not Supposed to Ask on: September 06, 2007, 02:19:00 pm

That statement makes no sense. It's like saying "HAHAHAHA REPUBLICANS YOU SUCK, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GEORGE W. BUSH"

Which is the point, no?

Anyway I actually don't think FDR was actually a leftist, rather he was a patriacan-plutocrat of the traditional variety who did what he did - not to redistrubted some of the wealth - but to 'save' America (Like Lincoln as a matter of fact). If FDR thought that privitization and anti-labour policies were the way to achieve that, that's what he would have done imo.

EDIT: The Native American-Indians were not really in harmony with nature - at least not in the "new ageish" sense which is a truly postmodern construction (which loves it's history in nice little simple-to-digest packages). Your average Indian tribe more resembled the ancient pre-Roman mini-kingdoms which circulated around Europe prior to The First Punic War. Of course they were more harmously towards nature than the Europeans, but that's not hard to do considering their economic capability.
8874  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: A General for Veep? on: September 06, 2007, 02:11:19 pm
Colin Powell would be an excellent choice for anyone. Tommy Franks is a failure.

Surely all the opposition would have to do is show this again..

8875  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: College on: September 06, 2007, 02:05:14 pm
In Two weeks! Yay - can't wait. Smiley
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