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76  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: October 23, 2011, 12:19:33 am

I think this reaffirms that a map similar to muon's above is what the Democrats are going to demand.  They aren't going to accept any of the urban core cracking that Republicans are trying to pull off.
77  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: October 22, 2011, 02:07:40 am
Apparently Republicans are proposing to pick off Democratic votes by stretching OH-3 from Columbus to Dayton, making it 42% black and possibly violating court precedents while wrecking one of the few areas of the map that didn't look like Maryland.

Was that the GOP is attempting to pick off Black Democrat legislators?

I think the accurate statement is that GOP legislators had discussions with the Ohio Black Legislative Caucus about the map. If a compromise would be reached that garnered the votes of both groups, then that total would be large enough to prevent a referendum. Recent reports have the OBLC staying with the Dems, but discussions continue.

I've read similar reports in the Columbus Dispatch.  The current public position of the OLBC seems to be that they would like to get a plan that all Democrats would be satisfied with and would also maximize the opportunity for Ohio to elect a second black representative.

Without drawing these to see how it would work, here's what I view as likely in a compromise plan: Three districts will be drawn entirely within the three largest counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton.  Summit, Montgomery, and Lucas counties will be made almost if not entirely whole.  (At the least there would be no three way splits of those counties and no splits of their most populous cities.)  The Columbus area will still hold major influence over at least 3 districts but the proposed OH-15 will be made less insane.  The old OH-10 and OH-7 are the eliminated districts.  The OH-6 Ohio River district will mostly remain intact.  In the end, Democrats will hold the advantage in at least 6 districts.
78  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: October 17, 2011, 03:33:31 am
Here's a map I did.





Obama/Mcain

OH-1(Chabot): 54.8/44.2
OH-2 (Schmidt): 38.8/59.2
OH-3 (Turner/Austria): 48.8/49.7
OH-4 (Jordan): 37.5/60.7
OH-5 (Latta): 45.4/52.7
OH-6 (Johnson): 47.3/50.5
OH-7 (Gibbs): 42.3/55.6
OH-8 (Boehner): 35.7/63.1
OH-9 (Kaptur): 58.0/40.3
OH-10 (Kucinich): 55.3/43.3
OH-11 (Fudge): 82.4/16.8 47.2 BVAP
OH-12 (Tiberi): 50.5/48.1
OH-13 (Sutton): 56.2/42.4
OH-14 (LaTourette): 52.6/45.5
OH-15 (Stivers) : 60.4/38.0
OH-16 (Renacci/Ryan): 54.6/43.4

2012 House ratings (IMO)
Safe GOP: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8
Lean GOP: 3, 12, 14
Tossup: 1, 6
Lean Dem: 16
Safe Dem: 9, 10, 11, 13, 15

Some of the incumbents don't actually live in the districts I placed them in but they are all very close and could easily move into their new districts without leaving their home counties.  The only exception is Tim Ryan who would be very inconvenienced by this map.  I figured his best bet would be to take on the freshmen Renacci in the slightly more Democratic district even though he actually lives in LaTourette's new district.

The black seat is probably too weak but I'm sure some more tinkering could get it up to 48% VAP which is the threshold the NAACP set for the redistricting competition.
79  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: October 16, 2011, 11:42:42 pm
Do court drawn maps typically favor incumbent protection over logical districts?  I feel like the above map still has some less than ideal districts in it that were drawn for the convenience of (mostly Republican) incumbents.  While the above map is certainly improved from the one that was enacted and even the current districts, I'm sure a judge drawn map would be even better than this.
80  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Does Mixed Member Proportional Representation Violate One Man, One Vote? on: October 12, 2011, 01:35:58 am
Thanks for all the great responses guys!

The main Constitutional impediment to adopting MMP for the U.S. House is the requirement that Representatives can only represent a single State.  Hence to implement MMP in the U.S. House for all States without a constitutional amendment would require a massive increase in the size of the House.  MMP is effectively meaningless in States that have only 1 or 2 Representatives, and even in those with just 3, it would be not particularly useful.  I can't see the U.S. going to a 2000 or more member House just to enable MMP to be used in the selection of every State's delegation.


I wondered about this myself.  I feel like MMP isn't effective if your state is electing less than 8 members and its really best to have 10 or more to make it truly effective.  I'm not sure how you could address that problem within the US system.  Its hard to imagine a functional legislative branch with over 1000 members.  At the same time I'm not really sure you're using MMP if your second round of elections is nationwide.  The parties would certainly need to be limited in the number of at-large members they could pick from one state.  I'm not sure what the ideal situation would be.  I do know that there has to be something better than what we currently have which gives a disproportionate amount of power to states with small populations.
81  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Does Mixed Member Proportional Representation Violate One Man, One Vote? on: October 11, 2011, 01:20:36 am
I saw the video below on youtube a couple days ago and was very intrigued by it.  I'm wondering what Constitutional hurdles this method of voting would face in the US.  The one that comes immediately to mind is the one man, one vote principle that ended the practice of at large representation in states with multiple House members.  Does anyone see any other major conflicts with the Constitution?  Although it wouldn't be completely necessary I think we'd also need to move to a unicameral legislative branch for this to work best.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT0I-sdoSXU

As a side note, I highly recommend watching this guy's other videos.  They are both informative and humorous.
82  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Kansas on: October 06, 2011, 10:39:32 pm
Well, it makes Stivers' district look a little less ridiculous...

This map is still pretty tame compared to the shredded ribbons streaking across Ohio.
83  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Maryland on: October 01, 2011, 02:49:50 am
I wonder what the racial breakdowns are on these.  Even though it's a gerrymander, the second option looks tame compared to the current district lines.
84  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Utah on: September 28, 2011, 01:33:30 am
The Utah thread is born again!

This map appears to be moving forward:

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-sumsion_06-modified-a
85  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: September 25, 2011, 02:57:24 am

The GOP mess has passed both houses of the legislature and awaits only a signature from the governor.  Unfortunately muon's map appears to be a mostly wasted effort. Sad
86  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Idaho on: September 25, 2011, 02:53:04 am
According to RRH, this map has been agreed upon by both parties for the two CD's.  Yawn.

Idaho won't be interesting until it gets its third seat next time around and even then it is likely to be relatively boring.
87  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: September 23, 2011, 12:18:52 am
Quote
Stivers really wants the banks in downtown Columbus.

That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are.  Tongue

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

Nope, I pulled his deed when I did my Columbus chop. Lawyers can do that. We're special. Smiley

Several local news articles have reported that he moved to Upper Arlington recently.  For good measure, I checked his wikipedia page and it lists his residence as UA as well.
88  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Who loses and who wins in 2010 Congressional redistricting compared to 2000? on: September 23, 2011, 12:13:58 am
I would agree that its more difficult to draw a Dem gerrymander in Ohio that would be as good (or bad) as the map that just passed for the GOP in the state.  However, it is possible to make several more competitive seats that would be winnable by moderate Democrats.  I think most Ohio Democrats realize that even within their own ranks they are slightly to the right of the national party.  Given a more balanced map, I think you could see 10-12 Democrats in a 2006/08 style election and perhaps a low of 3-5 in a year like 2010.  I think that's a risk enough Democrats would be willing to take to secure more competition in Ohio but perhaps I'm overestimating them.
89  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 51st state on: September 19, 2011, 10:26:35 pm
South California Tongue

I think a split would be good for California.  IMO it's far too large and unwieldy to be a single political subdivision of a larger nation.
90  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 51st state on: September 19, 2011, 10:25:26 pm
If it ever happens it will be Puerto Rico.  I think we'll see some kind of new status for PR within the next decade or two.  Whether or not it ends up being statehood is still up in the air a bit.

I don't think DC will ever be an actual state.  There may be amendments in the future allowing it more independence and/or representation though.

It should be merged with Maryland.

That makes historic sense but I doubt there will ever be the combined political will within DC, Maryland, and Congress to actually make it happen.  Maryland will never want it back and DC has grown too accustomed to being its own entity.  

I think the most realistic "final scenario" at the federal level would be DC with a voting rep, two Senators, and 3 EVS.  Locally, DC would get out from under the thumb of Congress for most home rule issues while Congress would still maintain major control over security and aesthetics.  I don't think statehood will ever happen unless the portions of the great DC area are also included.
91  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 51st state on: September 19, 2011, 12:44:13 am
If it ever happens it will be Puerto Rico.  I think we'll see some kind of new status for PR within the next decade or two.  Whether or not it ends up being statehood is still up in the air a bit.

I don't think DC will ever be an actual state.  There may be amendments in the future allowing it more independence and/or representation though.
92  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: September 13, 2011, 02:11:31 pm

I can't express in words how utterly disgusted I am by this map.
93  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Florida on: September 12, 2011, 11:30:32 pm

This quote right here is particularly disgusting:

"The people of Florida never had the power to do anything with respect to congressional redistricting"

Anyone who honestly believes that the people of the US don't have the right to establish completely reasonable rules regarding the redistricting process doesn't really believe in representative democracy.
94  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: September 01, 2011, 04:12:40 pm
Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? Smiley You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much. Tongue

There were several articles about muon's win in the Columbus Dispatch.  I really liked his plans for the Ohio legislature. 

I'm not sure I like his congressional plan above as well though.  The competition software rates 4 of his districts with a GOP index of over 61% while there is only one district with a Democratic index that is over 54%.  That's great for competitiveness but I feel like the Democrats are sacrificing more for that cause than Republicans under that particular map.  I think you need to boost the Dem rating of at least one more seat to make it fair.
95  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 24, 2011, 01:46:38 am
I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say.  Smiley

I'm not sure what the GOP is thinking here either.  I thought for sure they'd either force a couple of the freshmen into a primary or go after Jordan or Schmidt.  Eliminating 7 instead of 6 or 18 seems like a much riskier move. 

The only thing I can guess is that they are going to maintain the 3 way Columbus split but swing Stivers to the South and give Union County plus a portion of Franklin County to Jordan.  That might put Jordan in danger of facing a moderate Republican challenger from Columbus.
96  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 23, 2011, 09:45:43 pm
The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that there may be an Austria v Turner GOP primary in 2012.  That leads me to believe they are looking to eliminate OH-7.  Personally I'd rather see Schmidt forced into a primary but this raises my hopes slightly that there will only be 2 Franklin County districts at the most.  I'm still not too optimistic though.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/08/23/austria-turner-might-be-gop-primary-rivals.html
97  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 08, 2011, 03:27:28 pm
Here's my attempt:

OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.

This map is far to marginal for the GOP.  Its almost what I would expect out of a commission whose goal was to create the most sprawling competitive districts possible.  The only safe seats for Republicans would be 2, 5, and 8.  All the recently ousted Dems could easily retake their seats in 1, 4(18), 6, 15, and 16.  Also the map puts the previously safe 7 at higher risk and does little to shore up 3 and 12 which are being held only because of the strength of the incumbents.  (14 is a lost cause for Republicans once Latourette is gone)  Then of course the current Dem incumbents have safe seats in 9, 10, 11, and 13.  The only thing this map does to benefit the GOP is eliminate Sutton's district.

Republicans really just need to bit the bullet and trade a Cleveland Dem seat for a Columbus Dem pack.  It would make the rest of the seats so much easier to hold IMO.  Otherwise they are risking a repeat of the '06 and '08 disasters.  Eliminate Jordan and Schmidt and force Kucinich to move out west.
98  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: July 28, 2011, 08:14:53 pm
Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.



If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.
99  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: North Carolina on: July 06, 2011, 11:25:01 pm
Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.
100  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Ohio Redistricting Contest on: June 27, 2011, 11:28:16 pm
Some groups involved with the previous 2009 Ohio redistricting competition are planning a new contest beginning this Friday (July 1) - though with no involvement of the Secretary of State.

Ohio Redistricting Contest

The congressional districts in Ohio will most surely be drawn to benefit the Republicans as they will be drawn by the far-righters currently running the General Assembly.  However, I'm cautiously optimistic that SOS Husted will be able to insert at least some degree of fairness into Ohio's legislative redistricting.  He has been a vocal supporter of fairness in redistricting in the past and he has shown recently that he is willing to stand up to powerful people in his party when it comes to performing his job responsibly.
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