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76  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 24, 2011, 01:46:38 am
I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say.  Smiley

I'm not sure what the GOP is thinking here either.  I thought for sure they'd either force a couple of the freshmen into a primary or go after Jordan or Schmidt.  Eliminating 7 instead of 6 or 18 seems like a much riskier move. 

The only thing I can guess is that they are going to maintain the 3 way Columbus split but swing Stivers to the South and give Union County plus a portion of Franklin County to Jordan.  That might put Jordan in danger of facing a moderate Republican challenger from Columbus.
77  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 23, 2011, 09:45:43 pm
The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that there may be an Austria v Turner GOP primary in 2012.  That leads me to believe they are looking to eliminate OH-7.  Personally I'd rather see Schmidt forced into a primary but this raises my hopes slightly that there will only be 2 Franklin County districts at the most.  I'm still not too optimistic though.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/08/23/austria-turner-might-be-gop-primary-rivals.html
78  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: August 08, 2011, 03:27:28 pm
Here's my attempt:

OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.

This map is far to marginal for the GOP.  Its almost what I would expect out of a commission whose goal was to create the most sprawling competitive districts possible.  The only safe seats for Republicans would be 2, 5, and 8.  All the recently ousted Dems could easily retake their seats in 1, 4(18), 6, 15, and 16.  Also the map puts the previously safe 7 at higher risk and does little to shore up 3 and 12 which are being held only because of the strength of the incumbents.  (14 is a lost cause for Republicans once Latourette is gone)  Then of course the current Dem incumbents have safe seats in 9, 10, 11, and 13.  The only thing this map does to benefit the GOP is eliminate Sutton's district.

Republicans really just need to bit the bullet and trade a Cleveland Dem seat for a Columbus Dem pack.  It would make the rest of the seats so much easier to hold IMO.  Otherwise they are risking a repeat of the '06 and '08 disasters.  Eliminate Jordan and Schmidt and force Kucinich to move out west.
79  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: July 28, 2011, 08:14:53 pm
Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.



If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.
80  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: North Carolina on: July 06, 2011, 11:25:01 pm
Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.
81  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Ohio Redistricting Contest on: June 27, 2011, 11:28:16 pm
Some groups involved with the previous 2009 Ohio redistricting competition are planning a new contest beginning this Friday (July 1) - though with no involvement of the Secretary of State.

Ohio Redistricting Contest

The congressional districts in Ohio will most surely be drawn to benefit the Republicans as they will be drawn by the far-righters currently running the General Assembly.  However, I'm cautiously optimistic that SOS Husted will be able to insert at least some degree of fairness into Ohio's legislative redistricting.  He has been a vocal supporter of fairness in redistricting in the past and he has shown recently that he is willing to stand up to powerful people in his party when it comes to performing his job responsibly.
82  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Utah on: May 20, 2011, 12:06:45 am
Just a casual look at the maps makes it seem like Matheson's current portion of Salt Lake County would be found in any of the east/west divisions.  However, I'm sure he would be the heavy favorite in any of the maps.  With a consolidated SLC district he is probably more vulnerable in a primary than in a general considering what he has weathered.
83  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: South Carolina on: May 19, 2011, 11:56:55 pm
SC maps are out. Basically as predicted.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/05/19/1824510/suggested-horry-anchors-new-congressional.html
http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlanDistrictMaps.html

Both Greenville and Spartanburg were whining about not being split....well, 1 of them had to be. So it was Greenville, as Gowdy is from Spartanburg.

How risky is that 1st district for the Republicans?  I'm assuming it is reasonably safe right now but isn't that area trending Dem?
84  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: May 19, 2011, 11:02:41 pm
Given the maps I've seen so far I think the Republicans would be foolish to try a 13-3 map.  Its too risky IMO.  I think they could be fairly safe with a 12-4 map that eliminates Kucinich and I think they could build 11 completely safe seats if they did a Columbus Dem pack.
85  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Nevada on: April 28, 2011, 08:02:24 pm
Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.

PDF file

Joe Heck gets to keep the 3rd district.

One of the two comically gerrymandered Democratic districts is majority Hispanic, which has already prompted one Latino group to call the plan "an absolute assault".

Why are Hispanic groups pissed about a majority Hispanic district?
86  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / The 2010 Census is so last year. Lets talk 2020! on: April 27, 2011, 05:28:56 pm
One of the most interesting results that I think might come out of the 2020 Census is the potential for states (namely Delaware, Montana, and Rhode Island) with over 1 million residents to be apportioned only 1 Representative in the House.  Does anyone think the potential for this occurrence will cause the House to seriously consider increasing its membership?
87  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Growth in urban areas on: April 20, 2011, 09:24:38 pm
Just comparing 2000 population to 2010 population Charlotte, NC is one of the biggest gainers with about 190,000 new residents.  Fort Worth, TX had a similarly sized gain.  San Antonio, TX added about 180,000.  Austin, TX added over 130,000 and Phoenix added 125,000.  But again, those are all just raw comparisons of 2000 to 2010 without accounting for annexations.  Also, I just took a cursory glance at the top 20 cities so there may be some smaller cities out there that posted bigger gains.
88  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Indiana on: April 20, 2011, 09:12:49 pm
This is a very clean map that accurately reflects Indiana.

When calling some of these seats "marginal" by using 2008 Pres numbers, you're all forgetting something:  2012 Obama isn't going to come anywhere close to the 49% he got in Indiana last time.

Those 7 seats are in the bag for Repubs

I think its hard to judge Indiana based on any recent presidential results including those from 2004 and 2000.  Obama was the first Democrat to make an honest effort there in a while but the McCain campaign was also caught off guard by an all-out offensive in a state that had voted reliably for Republicans in the previous 10 presidential elections.  I think it is definitely possible that Obama wins in Indiana again, especially if he increases his share of the national popular vote.  He's not just going to roll over and hand the state to the Republicans even though that sometimes appears to be his governing "strategy."
89  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois on: April 08, 2011, 04:11:28 pm
Despite what the incumbent Democrats may prefer I can't see any map being made without an additional Hispanic district.  I think the "earmuff" district is going to be history.
90  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Official US 2010 Census Results on: April 02, 2011, 09:15:35 pm
These CD's have lost population:

NY 28, 27, 11, 15, 3, 6, 14
RI-1
WV-3
MI 13, 14, 5, 12, 1, 9

FL-10
KY-5

MN-4
TN-9
WI-4

OH 11, 1, 10, 17, 9, 6, 5
PA 14, 12, 2, 3
CA 31, 47, 33
NE-3
KS-1

AL-7
MO-1
TX-32
IL 1, 4, 2, 9, 17, 7, 5, 10
AR-4
IA-5
MD-7
LA 2, 3
MS-2
NJ-10


Interesting mix of rural and urban Black-majority districts.  If those figures are right, the only black-majority districts that didn't lose population are NY-10, VA-3, NC-1, FL-17, FL-23, SC-6, GA-4, GA-5, and MD-4, and much of that gain is from non-black population growth.

That adds more credence to the discussion of a new Great Migration in which black Americans are returning to the rising cities of the New South.
91  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Virginia on: March 29, 2011, 11:31:29 pm
Anyone seen these posted online yet?
92  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Official US 2010 Census Results on: March 17, 2011, 05:46:39 pm
Is it possible that there will be 6 majority Hispanic districts?  22.5% of 27 is just over 6 seats.  I'm thinking there will have to be 4 Hispanic districts in the Miami area but I'm not sure that Hispanics are densely populated enough outside of that area to get a 5th or 6th seat elsewhere in the state.
93  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Anybody else discouraged by 2010 results? on: March 13, 2011, 12:41:27 pm
Everyone in Ohio is either moving to Columbus or the Cincinnati suburbs.  Those are the major growth areas in the state.  In Columbus our economy is based on something a little less flighty than he-who-must-not-be-named-in-Ohio.  We have the BUCKEYES!

In all seriousness though, OSU is a major economic force in the region.  Because of the university we actually have some degree of stability in construction employment.  And you would be hard pressed to find many families in Columbus whose employment isn't connected to OSU in some way regardless of what their field is.
94  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Maryland on: February 18, 2011, 12:00:40 am
wow,  That doesn't even look all that bad in comparison to the outgoing map.  Although Maryland has some of the worst looking districts in the country to begin with so almost anything would be an improvement.
95  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Ohio on: February 10, 2011, 04:29:29 pm
I made this plan with three guidelines;

1. If possible, maintain county lines
2. Population deviation between -75 and +75
3. Try where possible to maintain current 'flavour' of existing districts.

Number two was the most important, and all districts except District 2 meet this criteria.







District 11 is just a simple majority African-American.

Obviously this plan is far from perfect, but it's my starting point, and I'll aim to refine from here. I really dislike Mansfield, and I'm not sure about the Springfield - Columbus district.

Album link in case pics don't load: http://img211.imageshack.us/g/ohiototal.jpg/

This is not a critique since your goal doesn't seem to be party/incumbent favoritism but I don't think Tiberi would like your 12th district very much.  Taking in that much of Franklin County might actually knock him in out in 2012.  The 15th looks like it would probably remain very competitive but I'm not sure I like the Columbus-Springfield connection.  Also, your new 5th is probably a lot more Democratic leaning than the current and could probably be considered competitive in a 2006/2008 type of year.  All the Democrats look safe or comfortable enough to get re-elected.
96  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Florida on: December 28, 2010, 12:58:19 am




Maps of South Florida I made using the the "new estimates" button in the app.  There are two black majority districts and 4 Hispanic majority districts.  Here's the racial breakdown of all 9 that I drew.

FL-17 dark purple (54% Black, 25% Hispanic, 17% White)
FL-18 yellow (58% Hispanic, 34% White, 5% Black)
FL-19  pea green (65% White, 20% Hispanic, 12% Black)
FL-20 light pink (71% White, 19% Hispanic, 6% Black)
FL-21 dark red (57% Hispanic, 32% White, 8% Black)
FL-22 brown (73% White, 14% Hispanic, 10% Black)
FL-23 light blue (53% Black, 27% White, 16% Hispanic)
FL-25 dark pink (61% Hispanic, 29% White, 7% Black)
FL-27 bright green (68% Hispanic, 20% White, 10% Black)

If this map can be made with Dave's app then I'm sure a much more sophisticated map could be made that balances out the Hispanics enough to get four districts that are at least 60% Hispanic assuming the app's population estimates aren't too far removed from the current racial distribution.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: One week from tomorrow on: December 27, 2010, 12:17:05 am
I've heard Obama has been working on a tax overhaul that will supposedly somehow appeal to the tea party rhetoric so I'm interested in seeing how that plays out.  I don't think there is any hope for meaningful immigration or energy legislation.  From the Republican side, I suspect there will be a ton of political posturing via House hearings/investigations and lots of effort put into repealing Obamacare with not much to show for either in the end.
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Politics and You on: December 26, 2010, 02:43:49 am
I started getting into politics by watching Stewart and Colbert during my junior year at college and then I branched out to get my political fix from other online sources.  Naturally, I found the Bush administration and Republican leadership to be complete idiots.  I grew up with a love of nature so I found their policies on energy and the environment to be lacking.  I was never exposed to any religious rhetoric regarding homosexuality so I found their nonsensical hatred of gay people completely repugnant.  And, I found the Republican defense of the invasion of Iraq to be completely baseless.  Those were the three major points that led me to become a Democrat in the first place and vote for the first time in 2006. 

I've since found many other points of agreement between my own philosophy and the Democratic platform.  I would probably characterize myself as a pragmatic "latte liberal.  My major issues remain environmental/energy policy and opposition to the agenda of the religious right.  I also favor most Democratic proposed regulations on big business as well as a progressive tax code.  I have moderate/unrepresented beliefs with regards to immigration, social security, and health care.
99  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Florida on: December 25, 2010, 05:18:28 pm
Shouldn't there be a new Hispanic majority district in South Florida?

Problem is there's nowhere for one to go. There have to be two black-majority seats and three Hispanic seats. Also, dilute the Cubans too much and you get Democratic seats. A 55% Hispanic seat in South Florida would probably elect a white Democrat before any Hispanic of either party as whites would control the Democratic primary and Cubans would be outvoted by the combined voting strength of whites and Puerto Ricans/other Hispanics.

I thought someone had posted a previous map which had 4 Hispanic seats in South Florida but perhaps I was mistaken.  I'll have to play around with it myself again.
100  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Texas on: December 25, 2010, 05:16:53 pm


I think this map is a more realistic version of Houston.

Districts 18 and 29 are black and Hispanic, the rest are all fairly strong McCain districts.

I believe that it is now possible to draw two majority Hispanic districts in addition to one black majority district in the Houston area.  Currently the 9th is a minority coalition district so I assume that it will be altered to become Hispanic majority and the remaining area can be cut up to prevent any new Democrats from getting elected.
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