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April 17, 2014, 10:02:32 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Is this proper behavior for a mod? on: April 02, 2014, 09:29:15 am
Hi,
No, this post is not appropriate.  I have contacted Al directly via pm.

Thanks,
Dave
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Udall safe, leads by 20+ on: March 28, 2014, 07:53:26 pm
New Poll: New Mexico Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-23

Summary: D: 54%, R: 33%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NM: Public Policy Polling: Martinez with Slight Lead in New Mexico on: March 28, 2014, 07:47:34 pm
New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-23

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / IA: Rasmussen: Braley with Slight Lead in Iowa on: March 28, 2014, 07:39:54 pm
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-03-25

Summary: D: 41%, R: 37%, U: 78%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / VA: Quinnipiac University: Warner with Lead in Virginia on: March 28, 2014, 07:36:53 pm
New Poll: Virginia Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-03-24

Summary: D: 46%, R: 31%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
6  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Question about predictions on: March 16, 2014, 11:01:42 am
Hi,
The standard I have is the final election where the candidate is elected is the percentage that matters.
Thanks,
Dave
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots on: March 08, 2014, 10:59:03 am
The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published. 

An analysis of the normalized turnout of the county (subtracting the statewide turnout vs. registered voters from the county turnout vs. registered voters) shows the following data:

YearRegCountyStateDifference
201249,97149.4%57.7%-8.3%
200846,71861.5%61.1%0.4%
200443,32960.1%57.4%2.7%
200039,01657.2%55.1%2.1%
199631,58266.8%61.2%5.6%
199227,53974.9%72.5%2.4%
198823,72578.2%75.7%2.5%
198422,70173.3%73.2%0.1%
198020,62980.3%76.1%4.2%

The mean from 1980-2008 is 2.5 with the standard deviation of 1.69.  the -8.3 is 6.4 standard deviations from the mean.  Very likely an error in total votes recorded in Warrick.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CT: Quinnipiac University: Tied up in Connecticut on: March 05, 2014, 10:52:25 am
New Poll: Connecticut Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-03-02

Summary: D: 42%, R: 42%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / AZ: Public Policy Polling: Many Undecided Voters in Arizona on: March 05, 2014, 10:48:05 am
New Poll: Arizona Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-02

Summary: D: 33%, R: 37%, U: 30%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / TX: University of Texas: Abbot with Lead in Texas on: March 05, 2014, 10:32:11 am
New Poll: Texas Governor by University of Texas on 2014-02-17

Summary: D: 36%, R: 47%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NY: Siena Research Institute: Cuomo with Commanding Lead in New York on: February 25, 2014, 03:07:41 pm
New Poll: New York Governor by Siena Research Institute on 2014-02-20

Summary: D: 64%, R: 22%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
12  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Wisconsin Recall Results on: February 25, 2014, 01:07:39 pm
In this case the recall was not the same day as the General Election, as was the case for California in 2003.  The WI Recall is a special election located at this link: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=55&year=2012&f=0&off=5&elect=7

Thanks,
Dave
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NC: Public Policy Polling: US Senate Contest Close in North Carolina on: February 21, 2014, 05:55:54 pm
New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-09

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / KS: Public Policy Polling: Republicans Lead in Kansas on: February 21, 2014, 05:23:10 pm
New Poll: Kansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-20

Summary: D: 35%, R: 50%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / KS: Public Policy Polling: Brownback and Davis Close in Kansas on: February 21, 2014, 05:18:13 pm
New Poll: Kansas Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-20

Summary: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
16  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Attn Dave: 2014 Predictions on: February 18, 2014, 09:14:36 pm
Thanks - this has been corrected.
Dave
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NY: Quinnipiac University: Cuomo with Solid Lead in New York on: February 13, 2014, 10:16:57 pm
New Poll: New York Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-02-10

Summary: D: 58%, R: 24%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CA: Public Policy Institute of CA: Brown with Significant Lead in California on: February 08, 2014, 09:07:58 am
New Poll: California Governor by Public Policy Institute of CA on 2014-01-14

Summary: D: 53%, R: 17%, U: 28%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / CO: Quinnipiac University: Udall with Slight Lead in Colorado on: February 06, 2014, 09:07:34 pm
New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-02-02

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CO: Quinnipiac University: Hickenlooper with Lead in Colorado on: February 06, 2014, 07:35:52 pm
New Poll: Colorado Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-02-02

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MA: Suffolk University: Coakley with Lead in Massachusetts on: February 06, 2014, 08:09:40 am
New Poll: Massachusetts Governor by Suffolk University on 2014-02-03

Summary: D: 44%, R: 31%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / AK: Public Policy Polling: Parnell with Lead in Alaska. Walker @ 16% on: February 05, 2014, 03:24:44 pm
New Poll: Alaska Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-01

Summary: D: 25%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / AK: Public Policy Polling: Begich with Slight Lead in Alaska on: February 05, 2014, 03:20:09 pm
New Poll: Alaska Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-01

Summary: D: 41%, R: 37%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: February 05, 2014, 08:50:05 am
Here is the 2013 Swing Map for New Jersey by Municipality



Top Swings for Christie

City/TownTotal VoteMargin%MarginSwing%ChristieBuonoOther
Union City City
11,458
2,002
17.47%74.52% 58.06% 40.59% 1.34%
Audubon Park Borough
311
123
39.55%53.06% 69.45% 29.90% 0.64%
Harrison Town
1,686
134
7.95%52.59% 53.14% 45.20% 1.66%
Rockleigh Borough
90
60
66.67%51.59% 83.33% 16.67% 0.00%
West Wildwood Borough
232
121
52.16%45.47% 75.43% 23.28% 1.29%

Only three municipalities swung to Buono - Walpack Township (where there was a total of 9 votes cast - and literally Buono received one more vote than Corzine. Loch Arbour Village (83 total votes and 6% Buono swing), and Branchville Borough with a 1.4% Buono Swing.

Enjoy,
Dave
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: How did the 2012 predictions compare? on: February 04, 2014, 03:52:38 pm
Nice lists - you might want to add the Atlas community aggregate predictions.
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