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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: February 03, 2014, 12:45:27 pm
There's a suspiciously huge swing in Union City from 2009 to 2013: Christie improved from 20.3% to 58.1%, while Buono took only 40.6% of the vote in comparison with Corzine's 77.5%!

Is a swing that large in favor of the Republicans (74.6%) actually correct?

This is a pretty dramatic turn - the result in the Statement of Vote at Hudson County shows Buono with 4,651 and Christie with 6,653 in Union City.

Enjoy,
Dave
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: February 03, 2014, 09:12:24 am


Atlas Page for full NJ 2013 Gubernatorial town maps: Link


CandidatePartyMunicipalities WonPercent
ChristieRepublican
503
89%
CorzineDemocratic
61
11%
TiesDem-Rep
1
0%
 
This is a pickup of 90 municipalities relative to Christie's 2009 contest against John Corzine.  Buono carried the largest two municipalities of Newark and Jersey City, but only one other (Patterson) in the top 29 municipalities ranked by total votes cast.  Buono’s strongest municipality with over 1,000 votes cast was in East Orange (Essex County) where she won 87.6% to 11.3% (a margin of 8,201 votes).  Similarly, Christie’s strongest municipality with greater than 1,000 votes cast was in Colts Neck (Monmouth County) ,  where he won 83.4% to 15.1% (a margin of 2,152 votes).  Buono’s strength was limited to the urban centers surrounding Camden, Trenton, and Newark, while Christie was strong everywhere else – especially in Ocean County and the northwestern portions of the state.

Full Atlas Results Page: Link
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: January 20, 2014, 10:44:42 pm
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: January 20, 2014, 10:44:10 pm


Atlas Page for full NJ 2009 Gubernatorial town maps: Link



CandidatePartyMunicipalities Won
ChristieRepublican
413
CorzineDemocratic
152
TiesDem-Rep
1

Full Atlas Results Page: Link
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gubernatorial results by municipality maps on: January 20, 2014, 10:38:06 pm


Atlas Page for full NJ 2005 Gubernatorial town maps: Link



CandidatePartyMunicipalities Won
ForresterRepublican
304
CorzineDemocratic
260
TiesDem-Rep
2

Full Atlas Results Page: Link
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Map by Municipality on: January 17, 2014, 01:25:54 pm
Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Election Results Map by Municipality



Atlas Page: Link (atlas membership needed to see this one there)



CandidatePartyCities & Towns Won
McCallumRepublican
905
DoyleDemocratic
896
ThompsonLibertarian
72
TiesDem-Rep
13
TiesDem-Lib
2
TiesLib-Rep
4

This contest was between incumbent Republican Governor Scott McCallum (whom assumed office when Governor Tommy Thompson resigned to become the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in January of 2001), the Democratic candidate Attorney General Jim Doyle, the Libertarian Mayor of Tomah Ed Thompson (the younger brother of former Governor Tommy Thompson), the Green party candidate Jim Young, and several other minor party candidates.  The statewide results of the election are available here

The results show an even split in the number of municipalities carried by Republican Scott McCallum and Democrat James Doyle.  Doyle won 896 municipalities, with strong showing in the City of Milwaukee, Dane County through the central part of the state and in the Northwest counties of Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland.   Scott McCallum won in 905 municipalities, showing strength in the east of the state, from the Milwaukee western suburbs, north and east through the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands.  Libertarian Candidate Ed Thompson won 72 municipalities, mostly centered around his home City of Tomah (where he won Monroe County as well as neighboring Juneau County).  The overall margin of victory for James Doyle was 65,736 votes – fewer than his 93,126 vote margin in just two municipalities – Milwaukee, where he won 65.8% to 26.4% over his Republican Challenger, a margin of 55,420 votes and in Madison, where he won 62.8% to 18.8% (with 10.5% for Ed Thompson), a margin of 37,706 votes.


The candidates’ best counties with more than 1,000 votes are

  • Doyle: Superior (Douglas County) with 68.2% to 23.4% for McCallum and 4.5% for Thompson
  • McCallum: Oostburg (Sheboygan County) with 75.9% to 24.14% for Doyle and 5.15% for Thompson
  • Thompson: Tomah (Monroe County) with 55.8% to 22.4% for Doyle and 20.4% for McCallum
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Wisconsin 2012 Map by City and Town on: January 17, 2014, 09:41:33 am
Here is the Swing Map
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Wisconsin 2012 Map by City and Town on: January 17, 2014, 09:36:38 am
Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Election Results Map by Municipality


Atlas Page: Link


CandidatePartyCities & Towns Won
RomneyRepublican
1,070
ObamaDemocratic
809
TiesRep-Dem
16

This was a significant improvement over 2008, where Republican John McCain won only 649 municipalities and Barack Obama won 1,232 (with 15 ties). Like in other states, the municipalities with the largest number of votes cast were dominantly won by Barack Obama.  Of the cities with more than 30,000 votes cast, Obama won 10 of 11, accounting for a margin of 325,338 votes. Milwaukee and Madison alone accounted for a vote margin of 258,938 votes. Compared with the overall state-wide margin of 213,019, these population centers secured the victory for Obama in Wisconsin.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Michigan 2012 Map by City and Town on: January 16, 2014, 11:53:54 pm
Here is the swing map from 2008-2012


Actually a Democratic swing in the city of Detroit and several surrounding cities.

Detroit actually went from a margin of 94.3% D-R in 2008 to 95.5% in 2012!
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Michigan 2012 Map by City and Town on: January 16, 2014, 04:45:01 pm
Michigan 2012 Presidential Election Results Map by City and Township



Atlas Page: Link



CandidatePartyCities&Towns Won
RomneyRepublican
1,133
ObamaDemocratic
382
TiesRep-Dem
8

Municipalities with the largest populations voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning nine of the top ten (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Warren, Ann Arbor, Sterling Heights, Clinton, Lansing, Canton, Farmington Hills; Romney won Livonia) with a net margin of 385,875 votes.  In the city of Detroit alone, Obama/Biden won 97.6% to 2.1%, a marg724 votes.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NH: Public Policy Polling: Hassan with Significant Lead over Reps in New Hampshire on: January 16, 2014, 01:06:03 pm
New Poll: New Hampshire Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-01-12

Summary: D: 51%, R: 27%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Harper Polling: Snyder with Lead in Michigan on: January 14, 2014, 10:50:51 pm
New Poll: Michigan Governor by Harper Polling on 2014-01-08

Summary: D: 35%, R: 47%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / IA: Quinnipiac University: Branstad with Lead in Iowa on: January 14, 2014, 10:46:47 pm
New Poll: Iowa Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2013-12-15

Summary: D: 33%, R: 49%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
39  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Now my signature has been targeted. on: January 11, 2014, 10:10:46 am
Hi Phil -
I am concerned about forum security and anytime someone has such an experience, its important to investigate to be sure there is no infrastructure issue.  In this case, the only way you would be able to determine if the issue was a hacked signature code on the Atlas or the external link changed is to compare your signature code before and during the event (save your sig code or compare with the google cached version: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:OE6WK-tPg2QJ:uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php%3Faction%3Dprofile%3Bu%3D701+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us )

On Jan 4, your sig had:
http://i39.tinypic.com/24eqkpk.png
Today, your sig has:
http://i39.tinypic.com/24eqkpk.png

Did you capture your sig code when the alternate image was present?

Thanks,
Dave
40  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Can the moderators/admins please stop deleting threads they don't like? on: January 11, 2014, 09:38:04 am
Hi,
There was a misunderstanding - it was not my intent to have the thread from the forum community board moved.  I have restored it.
Thanks,
Dave
41  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / opebo on: January 10, 2014, 04:54:05 pm
Hi,
As is well known, I'm not active day-to-day in the forum (my time these days is really crunched in a number of directions).  Controversies such as these are fortunately rare, but need to be navigated when they occur.  After consideration upon reviewing the material and input from many forum members, I have implemented the ban on opebo's participation.  Please note that the moderation team is in unanimous agreement on this point.  The term of the ban is indefinite. 

I also ask to please help me by keeping a degree of smooth interaction between members of the forum.  Should new conflicts occur - especially if there is concern over moderation or forum policies, please contact me.

Many thanks,
Dave
42  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: The Forum on: January 08, 2014, 12:32:47 pm
Hey Dave!

What is your opinion about moderators modifying hyperlinks in their picture gallery so that another person's signature has a picture of a big black penis in it?

Just curious!

Mechaman

Hi,
Such an even would clearly be inappropriate and falls under
If you disagree with a moderator action because it appears to be inconsistent with the guidelines, please contact Nym or myself via pm.

Was this incident a security hole in the forum?  or externally?

Thanks,
Dave
43  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / The Forum on: January 07, 2014, 06:51:35 pm
Hi All -
I want to post a message about the forum (now 12 years old and counting!) and moderation.  Here is my early quote on goals:

goals for the forum: a place for all to discuss, debate, and learn the many aspects about politics and elections.  It should be generally civil, respectful, and fun.  It is a place where many different voices may be heard.   

I've occasionally received emails commenting on the good uniqueness of the Atlas Forum as a place that does allow for discussion amongst many people from different political persuasions.  I want to emphasize that the quality of the forum can only be maintained with good moderation.  I am very grateful for the help that the forum receives from the moderation team in keeping the discussion boards in good shape - without which the place would be overrun with spammers and posters that would bring the quality of the site way down.  Please understand that while efforts are made for fair moderation, it will never be perfect or 100% consistent.  If you receive a moderator action, please consider it feedback instead of an attack.  If you have concerns about specific moderator action or inaction, you should contact the moderator of the board.  If you disagree with a moderator action because it appears to be inconsistent with the guidelines, please contact Nym or myself via pm.  Note that all reported posts and moderator actions are recorded and can be reviewed.

The guidelines I have set up are re-stated below.  Staying with these guidelines is very helpful for maintaining a smooth running forum.  Helping the moderators and myself in this regard is greatly appreciated.  Please enjoy all the site has to offer - the maps and data in the atlas, polling database, interactive predictions, endorsements, and forum.

Many thanks -
Dave

Forum Moderation Guidelines
Part of the moderation task is to cool these emotions before they can spiral out-of-control and real animosity forms.  I certainly understand that at times, passions can get high and that some have very strong (non-budging) viewpoints.

Some important aspects to moderation:
-> Consistency: the moderation of posts needs to be consistent.  As we have seen, posters can be easily upset if it even appears as though the moderator has a bias, deleting one post while leaving another.  This can mean reigning-in fellow posters from the same party consistently with those of another party.

-> Content: what to moderate?  Certainly, the most egregious posts - i.e. those that are personal attacks on other posters, highly offensive posts, and racial/religous/cultural epithets should be deleted and the poster should be given feedback that such posts were deleted.   Second tier posts need some judgement.  I prefer limiting profanity, flaming, etc., especially when it degrades or distracts from the discussion.

-> Referee: in some instances, the moderator should play referee to get between two or more posters that get out-of-hand.  The moderator must be neutral in most cases and work primarily to calm nerves.  Please to not takes sides in such debates.

Personal Attacks: Personal attacks include extraneous words in a post that demean the poster you are debating, such as I disagree, you "*$#" (fill in the blank) or "I'm not sure that you can comprehend this, but ..."  All personal attacks are deleted when reported.  Veiled or subtle attacks will also be deleted when reported. 

Profanity and Vulgarity: Please refrain from using profanity and vulgarity.  Such posts are subject to deletion or modification when reported.

Pornography pictures or text that could be considered sexually explicit, obscene, or pornographic content is not appropriate for this forum.  All are to be deleted when reported.

Discrimination and Hateful Speech: Posts deemed to be discriminatory or hateful against other posters or groups in general due to race, religion, etc. are deleted when reported.

Empty Quoting: One empty quote can be considered agreement with the statement.  Although I prefer you add your own words, I'm ok with reasonable levels.  Empty quoting yourself to bump a thread or to try to reiterate your position is considered spam.

Bumping old threads: bumping a very old thread with little substance (especially with an empty quote) is considered spam.  You can revitalize an old thread if there is new information to discuss or new members whom would like to engage in quality discussions.

Please note that consistent violations of these guidelines do result in bans.
44  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Attn Dave Leip on: January 05, 2014, 10:38:48 am
Hi Adam,
Thanks for your post - I'm always up for listening to suggestions on how the site can be improved.  I'm willing to listen to the issues - if you could please summarize the complaint with examples, we can see how to make this better. 

Here is my quote of the high-level moderation guidelines from 2006
This thread is for thoughts on moderation guidelines: 

Goal for the Forum: Please keep in mind the goals for the forum: a place for all to discuss, debate, and learn the many aspects about politics and elections.  It should be generally civil, respectful, and fun.  It is a place where many different voices may be heard.  I certainly understand that at times, passions can get high and that some have very strong (non-budging) viewpoints.  Part of the moderation task is to cool these emotions before they can spiral out-of-control and real animosity forms. 

Some important aspects to moderation:
-> Consistency: the moderation of posts needs to be consistent.  As we have seen, posters can be easily upset if it even appears as though the moderator has a bias, deleting one post while leaving another.  This can mean reigning-in fellow posters from the same party consistently with those of another party.

-> Content: what to moderate?  Certainly, the most egregious posts - i.e. those that are personal attacks on other posters, highly offensive posts, and racial/religous/cultural epithets should be deleted and the poster should be given feedback that such posts were deleted.   Second tier posts need some judgement.  I prefer limiting profanity, flaming, etc., especially when it degrades or distracts from the discussion.

-> Referee: in some instances, the moderator should play referee to get between two or more posters that get out-of-hand.  The moderator must be neutral in most cases and work primarily to calm nerves.  Please to not takes sides in such debates.


Some Guidelines
Personal Attacks: Personal attacks include extraneous words in a post that demean the poster you are debating, such as I disagree, you "*$#" (fill in the blank) or "I'm not sure that you can comprehend this, but ..."  All personal attacks are deleted when reported.  Veiled or subtle attacks will also be deleted when reported. 

Profanity and Vulgarity: Please refrain from using profanity and vulgarity.  Such posts are subject to deletion or modification when reported.

Discrimination and Hateful Speech: Posts deemed to be discriminatory or hateful against other posters or groups in general due to race, religion, etc. are deleted when reported.

Empty Quoting: One empty quote can be considered agreement with the statement.  Although I prefer you add your own words, I'm ok with reasonable levels.  Empty quoting yourself to bump a thread or to try to reiterate your position is considered spam.

Bumping old threads: bumping a very old thread with little substance (especially with an empty quote) is considered spam.  You can revitalize an old thread if there is new information to discuss or new members whom would like to engage in quality discussions.

45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Public Policy Polling: Snyder with Slight Lead in Michigan - Large Undecided Vote on: January 02, 2014, 12:56:36 pm
New Poll: Michigan Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2013-12-08

Summary: D: 40%, R: 44%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NC: Public Policy Polling: U.S. Senate Race Close in North Carolina on: January 02, 2014, 12:49:45 pm
New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-12-08

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NH: ARG: Shaheen With Lead in New Hampshire on: January 02, 2014, 12:41:17 pm
New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by ARG on 2013-12-16

Summary: D: 48%, R: 38%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
48  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: DAVE, please read: Creation of a "2014 House Polls" thread on: January 02, 2014, 12:09:08 pm
This is done.
Enjoy,
Dave
49  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: DAVE, please read: Creation of a "2014 House Polls" thread on: January 01, 2014, 10:38:15 pm
Hi - This board has been created.
Enjoy!
Dave
50  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: 1872: which Adams on Straight-Out Democrat ticket? on: December 07, 2013, 03:25:00 pm
Thanks for bringing this topic up.  I have made this correction based on some research to confirm.  Also added John Russell as the Vice Presidential candidate for the Prohibition ticket. 
Many thanks,
Dave
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