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March 25, 2017, 04:55:22 am
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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ryan: This is Our Last Chance to Repeal Obamacare on: March 24, 2017, 06:55:34 pm
Paul Ryan has solidified Obama's triumphant progressive legacy. Beautiful!
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 19, 2017, 12:13:53 pm
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.
Yup, Obama's lowest approval ever in Gallup was 38%.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would you vote for: Oprah/Sanders or Trump/Pence in 2020? on: March 19, 2017, 11:30:10 am
I'd hold my nose and vote for Oprah, then pray for her to die in office so that at long last we can have President Sanders. No matter how uninformed she is, I honestly don't think she could be worse than Trump. I figure the worst case with Oprah is she's stunningly incompetent but smart enough to listen to her advisers, unlike Trump.

Why Oprah would pick Sanders or Sanders would agree to run with Oprah is something that's beyond me though.

Sanders cultists now literally wishing death on people so that Bernie can be president. My god.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 16, 2017, 06:38:25 pm
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.

Plenty of Sanders supporters are spoiled children. Most are not, but Trump-supporters like Jfern are. The Democrats bent over backwards to reach out to people like him, and they chose to live in their absurd fantasy world where DWS's nefarious schemes were the only reason that Saint Bernie lost and rallied behind a right-wing fascist instead.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump slams Hillary and brings back "lock her up" chants at Nashville rally on: March 16, 2017, 06:31:02 pm
Modeling the United States after a multi payer system like the Netherlands or Germany by building on Obamacare would be preferable to single payer.

Starting from scratch to create a single payer system like the U.K. or Canada is nowhere near as feasible as just following the Germany/Netherlands model instead.

I don't support a single payer system, but establishing one could be easily implemented by extending Medicare to all, scaling up existing bodies and working off of that. I agree a full NHS-style system with the state running hospitals and employing doctors would be a tall order, but that's a different matter.

It would effectively be starting over from scratch for the 50% of the country that gets health insurance from their employer though (the vast majority of whom are happy with it).
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 16, 2017, 05:27:03 pm
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC “Unity Commission” to look at reforms to nomination process for 2020 on: March 16, 2017, 01:02:01 am
The fact that Sanders has appointed two crazy people who spend most of their time attacking Democrats (comic book man and TYT fake journalist lady) as his representatives is a clear signal that he is not entering into these negotiations in good faith.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 16, 2017, 12:01:31 am
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fear of diversity, not economic anxiety, caused Obama voters to switch to Trump on: March 14, 2017, 06:34:47 pm
They voted twice for a black man, but a ticket with 2 whites was too diverse for them? OK.

No, they voted twice for liberalism over conservatism (2008 and 2012), but when given the opportunity to pick white nationalism over liberalism (2016), they did so.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Fear of diversity, not economic anxiety, caused Obama voters to switch to Trump on: March 14, 2017, 05:57:36 pm
Great, important article that shatters so many of the myths those on the left, right, and center have clung to explain away Trump's victory.



Quote
Our analysis also shows that seeing racial diversity as a threat also helps to explain what motivated those voters who switched from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to voting for Trump in 2016.

The CCAP data indicate that 9 percent of Obama 2012 voters switched to Trump in 2016, and about 5 percent of Romney 2012 voters defected from Trump by voting for Hillary Clinton, and 6 percent voted for another candidate. Perceiving growing racial diversity as a threat strongly predicts Obama to Trump vote switchers, and more positive attitudes towards diversity predict the probability that a Romney 2012 voter would defect from the Republican nominee in 2016. The chart below shows that among whites most accepting of diversity there was a predicted 33 percent chance of defecting, compared to a 2 percent chance for whites with the most negative views about rising diversity. Among whites with the most positive views of rising diversity, the model predicts a less than 2 percent chance of an Obama voter’s voting for Trump. This compares to a 50 percent chance of voting for Trump among whites with the most negative views of rising diversity. Moreover, our analysis indicates that these attitudes had a stronger effect on vote switchers than any other variable, including racial resentment and attitudes towards immigration.

...

Fears about immigration were also linked to Trump support. However, we find little evidence to support the idea that concerns about trade deals or a rigged system contributed significantly to a Trump victory. Neither the trade-policy baseline question nor a scale of questions about trade policy predicted Trump support.

Questions about whether the political system benefits wealthy elites predicted vote choice—but in the wrong direction. People who agreed that the system benefited powerful elites were more likely to reject Trump. Increasingly, class is simply not a meaningful dimension along which American politics is fought. In our regressions, income predicted support for McCain and Romney, but not Trump.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would you vote for: Oprah/Sanders or Trump/Pence in 2020? on: March 13, 2017, 11:55:39 pm
Oprah needs to be the nominee in 2020. If she runs, she will win both the primary and the general easily, and could a be a transformative president. Hopefully she doesn't pick a grumpy 80-year-old white guy as her VP though.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ryan: This is Our Last Chance to Repeal Obamacare on: March 11, 2017, 11:19:57 pm
The CBO was mostly right in its Obamacare projections (certainly much more accurate than the Republicans, who were basically entirely wrong). And many of their wrong predictions were wrong because they underestimated how effective the law would be.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-SEN 2010: What If Giannoulias won? on: March 11, 2017, 07:49:02 pm
Of course Ginnoulias would have won again in 2016 because the Hillary coattails would have helped him out greatly in the Southern Collar County Suburbs in Chicago

He would have been a 2020 presidential contender. Midwesterner, handsome, white, liberal.
With Mob ties who ran a bank into the earth's core

Our current president is a man with mob ties who repeatedly ran businesses into the ground.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders' plans for democrats on: March 11, 2017, 01:20:23 am
The fact is that poll after poll shows those evil college-educated suburban voters you people hate so much to have more progressive views than non-college white working class. You can wish that the working class would achieve class consciousness and vote to overthrow capitalism as much as you want, but actual white working class voters prioritize different issues, and vote for conservative politicians as a result. The white working class, by and large, does not want what the left is selling.



Blacks are also by and large, not as socially progressive as college educated suburban Whites but they still vote Democrat 90% of because of free stuff. Free stuff makes all the transphobia go away. Free stuff makes it irrelevant. Give people free stuff and they will vote for you. Blacks. Working class Whites. Middle Class Whites. Everyone. We can win all these groups through free stuff.

If that were the case then Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas would not have swung towards Romney and then Trump.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/29/upshot/obamacare-who-was-helped-most.html?_r=0
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 11, 2017, 01:10:22 am
A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.

nah, they're getting exactly what they wanted (a white nationalist administration)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders' plans for democrats on: March 11, 2017, 12:58:58 am
The fact is that poll after poll shows those evil college-educated suburban voters you people hate so much to have more progressive views than non-college white working class. You can wish that the working class would achieve class consciousness and vote to overthrow capitalism as much as you want, but actual white working class voters prioritize different issues, and vote for conservative politicians as a result. The white working class, by and large, does not want what the left is selling.

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders' plans for democrats on: March 09, 2017, 06:38:48 pm
Aww, that's adorable that he thinks conservative white voters will vote for socialism. Keep running after that WWC football Bernie, I'm sure Lucy won't pull it away this time.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What will Paul Ryan do if the Democrats take control of the House in 2018? on: March 05, 2017, 09:41:30 pm
Hopefully retire, but I'm sure he'll find a position in the private sector where he'll be able to continue to pursue his dream of slaughtering poor people.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Was Obama's Healthcare the biggest blunder & missed opportunity for a Dem? on: March 03, 2017, 11:06:37 pm
Obama literally never campaigned on singlepayer. What an outrageous lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpAyan1fXCE - Obama - "I am an advocate for Single Payer" during the initial primaries. Ofcourse he totally backtracked after the primaries !

No, he released and ran on a plan similar to the ACA during the primaries. Clinton and him debated these plans in the debates. He never ran on implementing singlepayer, and Obama arguably ran to the right of Clinton in the primaries on healthcare.

Quote
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Tuesday offered a sweeping health care plan that would provide every citizen a means for coverage and calls on government, businesses and consumers to share the costs of the program.

Obama said his plan could save the average consumer $2,500 a year and bring health care to all. Campaign aides estimated the cost of the program at $50 billion to $65 billion a year, financed largely by eliminating tax cuts that are scheduled to expire. President Bush wants to make those cuts permanent.

"The time has come for universal, affordable health care in America," Obama said in a speech in Iowa City, at the University of Iowa's medical school.

While Obama's plan is aimed at expanding coverage, he said cutting costs was also essential.

"We have reached a point in this country where the rising costs of health care has put too many families and businesses on a collision course with financial ruin and left too many with no coverage at all," Obama said. "This cost crisis is trapping us in a vicious cycle."

Obama's plan retains the private insurance system but injects additional money to pay for expanding coverage. It would also create a National Health Insurance Exchange to monitor insurance companies in offering the coverage.

Those who can't afford coverage would get a subsidy on a sliding scale depending on their income, and virtually all businesses would have to share in the cost of coverage for their workers. The plan is similar to the one covering members of Congress.

Obama's package would prohibit insurance companies from refusing coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-unveils-universal-health-care-plan/

Quote
Specifically, new estimates say that a plan resembling Mrs. Clinton’s would cover almost twice as many of those now uninsured as a plan resembling Mr. Obama’s — at only slightly higher cost.

Let’s talk about how the plans compare.

Both plans require that private insurers offer policies to everyone, regardless of medical history. Both also allow people to buy into government-offered insurance instead.

And both plans seek to make insurance affordable to lower-income Americans. The Clinton plan is, however, more explicit about affordability, promising to limit insurance costs as a percentage of family income. And it also seems to include more funds for subsidies.

But the big difference is mandates: the Clinton plan requires that everyone have insurance; the Obama plan doesn’t.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/opinion/04krugman.html
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What kind of Democrat should Donald Trump be most afraid of? on: March 03, 2017, 09:07:31 pm
The Democrats need to stop fetishizing conservative white working class people. How many times are these fundamentally right-wing voters gonna snatch the football away before the left learns their lesson?
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Was Obama's Healthcare the biggest blunder & missed opportunity for a Dem? on: March 02, 2017, 05:30:24 pm
Obama literally never campaigned on singlepayer. What an outrageous lie.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election? on: March 01, 2017, 12:44:59 pm
We now see that much Atlas #analysis of the 2016 election was wrong or is now seen to be wrong. I am sure that much of what we think about the 2020 election will be proven wrong? Which pieces of current conventional wisdom on this forum do you view as ridiculous and wrong? What do you think will be proven wrong after the 2020 election? Discuss!

There will be plenty of posters predicting a 1932/1980ish repudiation of Trump, who will then be promptly disappointed and disenchanted when both major party candidates receive at least 45% of the popular vote.
A 55-45 win would still be a 1980 scenario.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What would an evangelical version of jfern be like? on: March 01, 2017, 12:40:56 am
Probably a lot like jfern, but replace the Clintons with Satan, sodomites, etc.

Yes, an evangelical jfern is not very hard to imagine, because he already has such a black and white view of the world.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How would you grade Steve Beshear's Rebuttal on: March 01, 2017, 12:38:14 am
He was fine. The point of the response is not to fire up the liberal base, but to appeal to the independents and Republicans who are tuning in to watch Trump and still have the TV on.

And he has a hell of a lot more experience winning over white working class voters than most Democrats, since apparently the WWC is the most important voting bloc now.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: News networks praising trump, criticizing democrats for being bitter on: March 01, 2017, 12:23:58 am
Literally no one will care about anything that happened at the SOTU a week from now, much less in November 2018.
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