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1  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Arizona and Michigan county maps on: February 28, 2012, 02:20:36 pm
If black voters are participating in cross-voting as much as white dems, that could really influence MI-13.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/28/michigan-too-close-thoughts-on-democratic-crossovers/
2  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Arizona and Michigan county maps on: February 27, 2012, 08:38:11 pm
I'm going with this map
justification here
http://electionate.com/2012/02/26/michigan-primary-preview/

3  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Arizona and Michigan county maps on: February 26, 2012, 06:26:45 pm
I still haven't done my projection map, but I think Livingston County is solid Romney:
-highest median household income in the state
-5% of households make more than 200k (Romney hasn't lost a single county in a primary where more than 5% make 200k+)
-Huckabee did poorly / Romney did well
-Not especially evangelical
-More than 10% have a post-grad education. Romney has won every county where more than 10% have a postgrad degree, except Alachua County, FL
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Arizona and Michigan county maps on: February 25, 2012, 01:57:50 pm
So I haven't made a prediction map yet, but one kind of fun thing to think about is the strong, negative correlation between Romney's 12' vote and Huckabee's 08 vote. It's a great predictor of how Romney will fare in a given county, and would have almost exactly nailed the Florida map. For the statistically inclined, the r^2 is .8

I wrote a blog post on it here, and there's also a map of how that would play out in Michigan.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/19/predictions-revisited-the-ghost-of-huckabee/

5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: February 7 Caucus Predictions on: February 07, 2012, 05:13:48 pm
I didn't predict the final #'s, but I did make some nice maps. I made them quickly at work, so I bet there are some errors! I think the Minnesota map is a little too Romney-friendly, so adjust a little bit toward Santorum. I wrote a little bit about it here: electionate.com

6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The CO, MN & MO Results Thread on: February 07, 2012, 04:42:20 pm
I made some maps at work today, but pretty quickly so I'm sure there will be much to quibble with. Let me know what I have wrong. I think I've given Romney too much in Minnesota, but I acknowledge that in the accompanying post at electionate.com


7  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Florida county map prediction on: January 31, 2012, 12:53:29 pm
That's a great map. Conspicuously similar to mine, although I think Romney might do worse in central Florida and better in the western Panhandle:

http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/florida-primary-preview/

Since Romney looks to win by a significant margin, you can give all of those toss-ups to him, and I imagine he might even win a few additional counties.
8  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The SC Election Day & Results Thread on: January 21, 2012, 05:38:06 pm
I made a county by county assessment of SC. What do you think?
http://electionate.wordpress.com/
9  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Blog of Interest on: January 19, 2012, 07:36:47 pm
The post agrees Romney would do worse in caucuses than he did last time, though I disagree that "all of his advantages" are gone, since he was a mainline, establishment conservative and he still appears to have the support of that same group of voters. Depending on whether the caucuses are mainly Tea Party activists or longtime establishment GOP party members, Romney's advantage may either be reduced or eliminated. I don't know the answer, and that's why the post has a speculative tone.

If the every state held a caucus, I'd be more receptive to the argument that Romney won't win most of them, but most of these caucuses are in states that ought to be pretty strong for Romney, given Romney's higher levels of support in the west and in affluent metropolitan areas.

Finally, I didn't even consider Paul, mainly because it's too hard to judge how well he'll do, but also because even if he were the winner, I don't think it would matter. A Paul victory is (on balance) a Romney victory, and thus largely supports the direction of the post.
10  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Blog of Interest on: January 19, 2012, 06:54:58 pm
great blog! amazing how long you've stuck with it. I added you to my blogroll
11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Blog of Interest on: January 19, 2012, 03:17:41 pm
These posts might particularly interest the demographic and map minded:

On the income-facet of Romney's coalition, and consequences for South Carolina:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/12/romneys-south-carolina-income-problem/

On southern Iowa's love of southern candidates:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/why-isnt-santorum-doing-better-in-south-carolina/

On Romney's advantage in the next nine states:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/schedule-favors-romney-sc-more-important-than-usual/

On whether caucuses will support Romney big time in 2012
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/will-caucuses-support-romney-again/

On whether the 08' McCain vote will be good for Romney
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/what-does-2008-tell-us-about-2012/
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Blog of Interest on: January 19, 2012, 03:14:06 pm
what's your blog?
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Blog of Interest on: January 19, 2012, 11:45:35 am
I've been lurking here for years and I recently decided to start blogging about elections. I can't really think of any group that would enjoy the demographic/map focus more than the folks posting here, so in case anyone is interested, I thought I'd throw it out:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/

14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Official US 2010 Census Results on: March 03, 2011, 04:01:39 pm
Auburn's population growth is also due to annexation.

far less rapidly than suburban Seattle areas like Marysville (137%)

I'm sorry, but I find that idea hilarious. Tongue

Which idea is hilarious?  Marysville is the fastest-growing city in the state in percentage terms.  Granted, its 2000 base population was much lower than most - but even so, it picked up more residents than any city except Seattle and Renton.  It jumped from the state's 36th largest city to its 15th.

Snohomish County (17.7%) grew at a faster rate than King, Pierce or the state as a whole.

No, no. I donít doubt you. Iíve just lived in or near Marysville (about 15 minutes west of) for most of my life, and my dad used to work for the City of Marysville as their finance director once upon a time, and the notion that Marysville is a Seattle suburb is a strange one to me. If anything, it's a suburb (sorta, it's complicated) of Everett.

Also, on the population growth, a good chunk of that growth in Marysville was from annexations of surrounding suburban areas that were previously unincorporated. It did grow, and quite a bit, donít get me wrong, itís just a bit inflated.


Growth due to annexations is one thing that takes further analysis to unravel.  The census bureau does not differentiate between growth in the old city area or growth in annexed areas.

It does make sense that Marysville would have seen explosive growth in the past decade, as the Seattle-Tacoma metro area raced up the I-5 corridor.  Auburn is another area at the fringes of the highway system where one would have expected to see explosive growth, too.
15  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ND: Rasmussen: McCain leads North Dakota by 1% on: July 10, 2008, 03:03:48 pm
I don't post often, but we shouldn't completely discount the possibility for ND to be unusually close.
Obama's strength in Minnesota and Montana (and the entire northwestern quadrant of the country) suggests he ought to be strong in ND. Obama's unopposed advertising and campaign stop should also give him higher standing in the polls than he would have otherwise. I think that the *trump card* the Obama campaign has is McCain's opposition to agricultural subsidies and the farm bill. Agriculture is the largest industry in ND, and opposition to agricultural subsidies is like opposing their way of life.
16  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton and Obama tied on: February 03, 2008, 07:27:39 pm
Interesting note in the internals...

"The race may not be as tight when Democratic voters go to the polls next week on Super Tuesday. Among registered voters who say they will vote or have already voted in a Democratic primary in states holding contests Tuesday, Clinton leads Obama by 49% to 31%."
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Virgnia on: November 05, 2007, 04:15:20 am
I'm not voting, but I think Virginia will be very close.

Hillary should do as well or perhaps slightly better in northern virginia then kerry and should be stronger in souther virginia. Hillary seems to be doing better with less educated / rural voters both nationally and in state by state polling vs. Giuliani. I can think of two reasons why this might be true
1)  Kerry was particularly unappealing to working / rural dems because he was successfully characterized as a rich out-of touch northeastern elite liberal who likes windsurfing.
2)  Rudy fragments GOP support in rural areas, especially in comparison to Bush.

I would contend that the combination of these two factors will make Hillary stronger in several other states like west virginia, missouri, kentucky, north carolina. I suspect that Hillary will not win a majority of these states, but she will be *more* competitive (NC/KY/IN) and in some cases, very competetive (MO/VA/WV).

Demographic trends in Virginia, while not nearly rapid enough in itself to create a Dem victory, will contribute to these advantagous circumstances and create a very tight race in Virginia.
18  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Your Favorite and least favorite candidate from each party on: July 08, 2007, 04:08:37 am
Favorite: Barack Obama, Ron Paul
Least Favorite: Mike Gravel, Rudy Giuliani
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / WA Governor: Gregoire leads Rossi 51-40 on: December 27, 2006, 01:18:19 am
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/109909.asp

Gregoire narrowly defeated Rossi in a contested election in 2004.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008? on: December 27, 2006, 01:07:54 am
reichert will be tough - his popularity in key swing areas of the district is shocking [he "caught" the green river killer and has decades old relationships]. I think it will take a candidate with strong name recognition, a strong base, and some experience to defeat reichert. I vote Gerlach - on the assumption that the next Democratic candidate doesn't run a hyper mediated campaign like murphy
21  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Hillary vs. Romney predictions on: December 25, 2006, 04:05:05 am

Romney 270
Clinton 268
22  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Popular Vote on election night on: December 25, 2006, 01:02:26 am
does anyone know when the popular vote was what at what time? perhaps in graph form?


i remember that early on bush led 56-44, and that closed slowly, though not fast enough.
23  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: What would make 2008 a realigning election? on: December 23, 2006, 11:33:37 pm
If the Democrats win the Southwest it could be a realignment.  Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.  Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have all been closely contested in the past couple presidential elections.  If Democrats can put all three of these states in their column (and maybe Arizona) it will be a major realignment.

democratic gains in the southwest are probably enough to maintain parity, but not enough to trigger realignment given the anticipated change in the distribution of electoral votes after reapportionment.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Oregon Is Turning Republican on: December 23, 2006, 06:11:24 am
oregon is not turning republican...

these registration numbers don't translate to a republican majority.

Independents vote overwhelmingly democratic in the pacific northwest - they are secular, socially liberal, and not particularly ideological on economic/role of government questions.

Even if more registered republicans vote, they just can't outweigh the massive independent vote breaking 60% for the democrats. 2000 was as close as it was because Nader did better in OR then any other state.

25  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Iowa poll shocker: Edwards and Obama tied for first; Clinton in fourth! on: December 21, 2006, 11:32:43 pm
does anyone have any insight on hillary's chances in Nevada? Clearly she has an uphill battle in IA/SC and NH looks to be a big clash between Obama and Clinton.
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