Yes, it was a pure tossup in 1988.  Some polls actually had Dukakis ahead there even at the end. 

Tied him up and put him in a cage.

Toughie to project. On the one hand, unless 2014 is a decisively more Democratic year, it seems on the surface that Dold should win; he only lost by 2% in a rather Democratic environment in 2012, with Obama at the top of the ticket; most likely, the environment and the electorate will both be more favorable in 2014, and unless Madigan runs for Governor (I doubt it, for the same reasons she didn't run in 2010, but it's possible) at the top of the ticket will be Quinn or Daley, neither of whom are popular. That said, it will be Schneider, not Dold, who has the incumbent advantage now. Dold is the more talented politician but this is also an extremely Democratic district (Obama won by 17%, which is a quite prodigious margin). So, this looks set to be a very exciting House race.

This is a very, very Democratic seat.  Under the new lines, even Dan Seals won here in 2010.  John Kerry even won this seat by ten points.

Swain County has a significant Native American population and Jackson County has Western Carolina University, as well as some Native Americans, which would explain those counties being so moderate.  Haywood County has the Great Smoky Mountains National Park which is run by the federal government, and I assume brings a lot of jobs to the area.  Madison and Yancey Counties, I have no idea... I actually have relatives in Yancey County and they're all Democrats but I don't know why.  It probably dates back to the civil war.

North Georgia was solidly Democratic locally until the 1990s, when everyone changed parties.  People like Zell Miller and Nathan Deal (former Dem) are from that area.  Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama used to be bases for conservative Democrats in those states.  It's not like Eastern Tenn. or southeastern Ky. which has been Republican forever.

Its hard to believe that North Georgia remained Democratic even locally past the late 1960's.  There is almost no black population there like there is in Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. 

The most shocking thing I found was Durham County voting for Jesse Helms in 1978.

No kidding.

Terry Sanford's gubernatorial and senate elections best exemplify the eastern vs. western NC split in politics.

Yeah. There were a few outliers though, as Sanford won Union County in 1986, which would be unheard of today.

I can't find any election since 1960 in which Orange or Northampton Counties voted Republican.  They even voted for George McGovern in 1972.  Likewise, I can't find any election in which Avery or Mitchell Counties voted Democrat.

For Orange, you have to go back to 1928!

I don't think Avery/Mitchell have ever voted Democratic. Those two belong over the boarder in eastern TN.

One county that always stuck out at me was Sampson. Its swingy today in statewide races, but going back in Presidential elections from the 1920's until the 1950's it was always considerably less D than the rest of eastern NC.

Sanford actually narrowly lost Union in 1986 and also Johnston, while solidly losing Mecklenberg.  Crazy. 

In my opinion, Pelosi should be replaced for a leader that can connect with blue collar, white and populist people. A party that replaces abortion and gun control for economic things. I'd like to recruit Schweitzer to try to run for MT-AL and as leader of Congressional Democrats. SC-1 could have been won with another leadership.

SC-01 was not winnable.  This is not a seat like MS-01 or NC-07 that has a lot of rural voters who vote heavily Republican at the Presidential level, but are not that partisan.  This is a wealthy suburban district with a huge number of heavily Republican voters that just are not swingable. 

After the SC-01 race last night, I'm really worried about how corrosive the nationalization of these races can be. The National Reviews says that Blue Dogs will likely track even further right to further eschew their affiliation with Pelosi:

while Pelosi has always had a handful of members who were likely to stray, she can expect even less agreement from members like Jim Matheson of Utah (R+16), Nick Rahall of West Virginia (R+14), Mike McIntyre of North Carolina (R+12), John Barrow of Georgia (R+9), and Collin Peterson of Minnesota (R+6) — and perhaps Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona (R+4), Patrick Murphy of Florida (R+3), Pete Gallego of Texas (R+3), and Ron Barber of Arizona (R+3). Because if invoking Pelosi was key to Sanford overcoming the well-funded Colbert Busch, imagine how it will play in districts where the Republican doesn’t have Sanford’s baggage?

You have to remember that SC-01 is a much more partisan district than seats like WV-03 and NC-07 that have a lot of poor rural voters who are solidly Republican at the Presidential level, but will consider at Democrat at the local/Congressional level.  SC-01 is a wealthy suburban Charleston seat that is more akin to a district like the old TX-22 which Nick Lampson couldnt hold in 2008 due to the much higher number of partisan Republican voters.  SC-01 has a very high Republican floor.

2012 Most Republican state to elect Dem senator: West Virginia (Manchin)
Most Democratic state to elect republican senator: Nevada (Heller)

2008
Mark Begich
Susan Collins

2004
Evan Bayh
Arlen Specter

2000
Ben Nelson
Lincoln Chaffee

1996
Tim Johnson
Susan Collins

1992
Byron Dorgan
Al D'Amato

1988
Bob Kerrey
John Chaffee

1984
J.J. Exon
Rudy Boschwitz

1980
Gary Hart
Mack Mattingly

1976
Ed Zorinsky
John Chaffee

1972
James Eastland
Ed Brooke

1968
Frank Church
Jacob Javits

1964
John Stennis
Winston Prouty

1960
Robert Kerr
Leverett Saltonstall

1956
Frank Church
Thruston Morton

1952
Harry Byrd
John Williams

1948
Leverett Saltonstall
J.A. Frear

I still dont get how Susan Collins was able to hold Cohen's seat in 1996.  She was basically a nobody.  It wasnt like the Snowe situation in 1994 where she had already represented half of the state in the House for nearly two decades.  Collins was just a random businesswoman who never held public office and came in a poor third in the 1994 governor's race. 

Had Democrats fought harder to elect Joe Brennan that year, Democrats would have another Senate seat today and probably could have gotten a public option healthcare bill in 2010. 

I was just thinking about this the other day.  McGovern put in a very good performance here in 1972(only losing by 13 points) when he lost nationally by 24.  It was probably one of the few places(along with Massachussetts and Oregon and Washington), where Vietnam and foreign policy were hurting Nixon in 1972. 

California was also the only state where there was a Congressional district(in San Francisco) that switched from McGovern in 1972 to Ford in 1976. 

Obama has certainly been a good President for the 1%.

Right because the poors aren't allowed to invest in the stock market

I'll give the Obama administration credit here as my portfolio is doing just fine

I'm certainly not rich, and my portfolio and 457 plans are doing very well.

The best solution would simply be to eliminate the cap on the tax base, but continue to cap benefits at the level of someone who made $115,000 a year(indexed to inflation each year of course).  This would eliminate any shortfall in the system indefenately.

And in response to the Republican mantra that people should control their own retirement, Democrats should simply offer a separate, stand alone system much like the Thrift Savings Accounts to everybody to give people more chance to save for retirement.  And if Republicans being up the whole "more government" argument here, then Democrats should simply ask them "so you don't think the American people are good enough to get what members of Congress and federal workers get"?

Sign me up. 

Anyone have any nominations for "worst parties in states strong for their party"?

New York Democrats.

The only thing wrong with New York Dems in their inability to get a clear majority in the State Senate, which is their own fault for letting Republicans draw the maps.  Even with the current, GOP drawn maps, Dems should still have a few more seats, like Robach's on the north shore, Grisanti's in Buffalo, and a few more on Long Island. 

Link

Demaio 49
Peters 39



Bad news for Mr. Peters.

Too bad its a push poll. 

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

Most of the Massachussetts Republicans who have held state House and Senate seats like this were quite moderate and in the Richard Tisei/Scott Brown mold. 

Why do you distinguish between the sale of a private company, or stock therein, and a public company? Investing in a private company is more risky, so if anything the rationale for different rates goes in the opposite direction from your proposal it seems to me. I favor taking dividends at ordinary rates, provided that for C corps, you can deduct the dividend paid out from taxable C corp income for C corp taxation purposes. I like that, because I think C corps horde too much cash, partially but not entirely for tax reasons, which causes economic inefficiencies. Let the market decide where cash goes, not C corp execs trying to expand the reach of their empires, and their importance (the other major reason I think that C corps horde too much cash).

Thresholds at some levels for deductions are good, because it reduces paperwork requirements, and amount of money involved is small, and the idea with medical deductions is not to subsidize , but rather to give break to those who have catastrophic medical expenses in relation to their income level.

What I am trying to do with the capital gains is to make them more strictly defined.  Carried interest should be taxed as interest, which is taxed at ordinary rates.

Good. We don't need Rahall committing political suicide.

Yep.  He wouldn't have carried his own district and would have lost every county in the state outside of it to SMC.

[passive]

Next, I would go back to taxing dividends at ordinary rates as well as "non-qualified" capital gains.  A non-qualified capital gain is essentially a passive capital gain that isn't generated from the sale of a home or a sale of stock that isn't sold to the public on an open stock exchange.

What do you mean by passive?

A capital gain that isn't generated by the sale of a stock sold on the open market or a home.

I've come up with a tax reform plan that I think would be very appealing to most people.  The problem is that I'm not sure if its revenue positive or negative.

First off, I would double the standard deduction for couples and individuals, making it around $24,000 and $12,000 respectively.  This would be partially paid for by limiting itemized to deductions to a fixed $100,000 for individuals and $200,000 for couples at all income levels.  Additionally, I would remove the 7.5% AGI exclusion for medical expenses. 

Next, I would go back to taxing dividends at ordinary rates as well as "non-qualified" capital gains.  A non-qualified capital gain is essentially a passive capital gain that isn't generated from the sale of a home or a sale of stock that isn't sold to the public on an open stock exchange.

I'm debating whether to add a 44% tax bracket for income of $1,000,000 for individuals and $2,000,000 for couples. 

What does everyone think?

The white vote may have looked something like this.

I'd bet that Ford won the white vote in Missouri.

Almost certainly not.  Most of the south was actually quite close outside of Georgia.  The amazing thing is that Ford actually got about 20% of the black vote.

I still dont know why Democrats didnt keep up with their investigations of the Bush administrations prior knowledge of attacks and intelligence slip ups the way Republicans are with Obama and Boston.  Had they done that, they probably would have caused Bush's approval ratings to drop a little more in 2002 and it might have helped them do better in the 2002 elections. 

It was simply ridiculous the way Democrats tried to rally around Bush on security(and even invading Iraq) well into 2002.  A President doesnt become god just because of a terrorist attack.  They should have done more to stir up doubt about going into Iraq in the summer of 2002. 

Virginia Dems, really? Same Dems who have no choice but to nominate Terry McAuliffe for a very winnable governors race?

In 2008, they managed to turn a state that hadn't gone Dem since 1964 into a lean-Dem swing state, with both Senate seats to boot, and they did it again in 2012.  I think that's a significant accomplishment.

2008 was kind of a short term thing as they lost all of the House seats they gained that year save one in 2010 and didnt get them back in 2012. 

They also fell further into the House of Delegates minority in 2011 by losing a bunch of seats that they had no business losing.  Additionally, they lost their State Senate majority because Roscoe Reynolds only won by single digits in heavily Democratic Danville in his district. 

Here's a good article on the differences between the House and Senate.

The independent redistricting bill would likely pass the House, but get stalled in the Senate.

This guy reminds me of krazen:

“We’ve waited 140 years to have this (redistricting power),” said Sen. Tom Apodaca, a Henderson County Republican who chairs the influential Rules Committee. “I’m not ready to give away what we fought so hard to get.”

As usual my Senator is being his typical partisan jackass self:

Sen. Bob Rucho, a Matthews Republican who chaired the Senate’s 2011 Redistricting Committee, said he doesn’t think a commission is necessary. Supreme Court rulings at the state and federal levels, he said, have set clear guidelines.

“The law,” he said, “is very clear as it is.”

On Wednesday, Rucho’s redistricting committee waded into other redistricting issues.

The panel approved bills redrawing districts for the Wake and Guilford county school boards, over the objections of both boards and some Democrats.

'Pisses me off.

Democrats in Wake and Guilford county should tell Rucho to but out of local/municipal issues where he doesnt belong.  How would he like it if Obama came in and drew the state legislature lines?  I bet he'd be having a fit. 

Kathy Castor getting absolutely slaughtered in Republican areas of north Florida.

Romney faltering in Miami-Dade and losing Florida narrowly--Cristina Saralegui supported Obama while Romney was making Hispanics everywhere feel unwelcome in the U.S.

Martha Coakley would have lost anyway but she got hurt by voters in cities like Lowell and Lawrence completely sitting out the election. Brown narrowly won one of those cities, I forget which, but it was entirely because Dems didn't show up.

You are thinking of Betty Castor in the 2004 Senate race.  She actually did much better than Kerry in the areas around Tallahassee(the 2nd Congressional district) and actually carried Hillsborough county.  She lost because she underperformed even Kerry by a significant margin in Dade county.  Had she simply matched him there, she would have won.  Gore had a similar problem in 2000 due to his underperformance in Dade.  

Did Coakley actually lose Lowell?  I believe that city is now minority-majority.  There is no way in heck she lost Lawrence though.  I don't see how she lost Lowell if she carried Middlesex county.