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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The FIFA World Cup tipping competition on: July 23, 2015, 01:45:37 pm
I will be trying to keep this my final post on Leip's Atlas (no holy oaths though). It's a post I've been intending to make for a year (in fact, I just realized I announced that intention in the thread.)

Quote
2 points per correct tendency (win/draw/lose)
1 point per exact goal difference - not available in drawn games
1 point each for getting one side's # of goals right (so even if you think they'll win 1-0 and they get thrashed 1-4 you get a point!)
making 4-5 points for nailing the result in the group stage.

Tips in before game starts, of course.

No special "predict the world cup winner early and your suck at getting exact results won't matter much" bonus.

For the knockout stage, these rules require slight modifications:
We'll be predicting the score after 90 minutes, plus who'll advance in case that we predict a draw.
1 point per tendency (win/draw/loss)
1 point for getting the advancing team right
1 point per goal difference (not available in drawn games)
1 point each per team's scores
Still a total of up to 5.

The rules worked very well for the group stages. They didn't work nearly so well for the knockout stages. The issue could probably be remedied by keeping the two points per tendency from the ground stage while also keeping the advancing team bonus point, for a total of up to six. I realized this around the time of the conversation with Gmantis on page 17, I think it is, but decided against changing the rules in mid-competition.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Lewis Trondheim/minionofmidas on: July 23, 2015, 12:04:21 pm
Didn't Al say that Lewis was one of the choices he suggested to Dave to replace him as mod of International Elections?

This is correct. I rejected Dave's offer of the post. I may be the only person in forum history to have done so.

*no actually, I literally ignored it, which wasn't nice but given the surrounding circumstances I wasn't able to write a nice negative reply.
3  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Atlas Forum Feedback on: July 23, 2015, 11:36:38 am
Banned posters - I'll let other people discuss opebo/jmfcst coming back or not
For there to be a discussion to let opebo come back anyone would need to know how to find him. This place was the only place in the world where he still regularly conversed with any Westerners who were not the typical type of dull southeastasia sexpat, and that was why it meant so much to him, remember? I hope he's doing fine but I'm not really all that confident.
4  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Leip, one of your mods is encouraging people to kill themselves. on: July 22, 2015, 07:28:32 am
I wouldn't have personally put it that way (and Joe deleted the post, so perhaps he wouldn't, either!) but an expression of disgust towards Tweed seems pretty appropriate given the context.

I most certainly didn't.  It got quite a few 'likes' too, I should add.


Edit: it's still there, no?

Not anymore.

As I found trying to find it again in order to make a mental list of all the people who liked it.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Bacon King Statement on: July 22, 2015, 06:19:25 am
Personal stuff is going to be said elsewhere and not on this forum (mentioning that here just so no one jumps on me for the next bit) but

I definitely didn't know he wasn't going to retract sensitive information
I think you meant 'redact'.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrat leadership election, 2015 on: July 20, 2015, 12:44:28 pm
Quote
In March 2012, Farron was one of three MPs who signed a letter sent to the Advertising Standards Authority, criticising their recent decision to stop the Christian group "Healing on the Streets of Bath" from making explicit claims that prayer can heal. The letter called for the ASA to provide indisputable scientific evidence that faith healing did not work
Oh wow, that's pretty cranky.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: July 19, 2015, 08:14:39 am
You wonder how that would change if the issue became a serious one again.

Also Jas, you're posting on the wrong Atlas. Come to the dark side!
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Portugal parliamentary election - autumn 2015 on: July 18, 2015, 05:23:41 am
This election is mostly about austerity. The government supports it and the opposition wants to end it.
And that in a nutshell is why PS is doing so much better than PASOK.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: July 15, 2015, 01:08:11 pm
A pretty transparent attempt to scare people on the Labour Right into a) mobilising and b) to cast tight preference chains: I personally wouldn't believe even a published poll of this sort of contest, let alone questionable leaks of supposed private 'polling'.

Still, there's no doubt that Corbyn is doing very well; maybe he really will top the poll. Actually winning would be much harder as he's unlikely to be transfer friendly. I think he would need a very large lead on first preferences and for their to be little transferring between the other candidates, which seems like a stretch.
Well if the fear of Corbyn mobilizes the right, and they vote Kendall first pref, maybe - maybe - a Corbyn vs Kendall last round is a possibility. Grin
10  General Discussion / History / Re: Opinion of Jack London? on: July 10, 2015, 12:46:28 pm
Massive Freedom Fighter. The Iron Heel was a truly amazing work, amongst others.
I am more partial to the Minions of Midas. -_-
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 29, 2015, 07:02:16 am
What will they pay the printing press employees with? Scrip printed on the same press?
Heh. At least these aren't unforeseen expenses.

Seriously though, it is not the matter of Greece being "kicked out" of the eurozone. The problem for Greece is, that, conditional on defaulting, being outside the euro is infinitely preferable to being inside. Greece really needs to devalue at this point. That is the only thing that can limit the pain of adjustment that will be happening now. And, of course, you can only devalue if you have your own currency.
And the problem still is that there is no exit mechanism, still. And no comprehension of the size of their failure among the groupthinkers around Merkel, still. Greece literally cannot get out and cannot afford to stay in, right now as at every point over the past four years.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 28, 2015, 07:32:29 am
How is it even possible to organise referendum so fast?
Printing pieces of paper with "yes" and "no" on it is very easy, and most real countries still have government printing presses that can do that at very short notice. Paper is a commodity, and has been since the mid 19th century.

And Greece has archaic-sounding but very functional rules regarding polling stations and pollworkers (and poll opening hours!) - always your local state primary school, all the teaching staff (and from dusk till dawn). So no pesky negotiations to rent precinct locations, perhaps not even a need to send out voter notifications.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 11:47:55 am

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.


Wouldn't coalescing with the AKP be the kiss of death for the CHP, given that opposition to the AKP is one of their electorate's most strongly-held positions?
Kiss of death is probably too harsh, but yes the CHP knows that coalescing with the AKP is not going to go over well (it would at the least have to look like a Grand Coalition... and even that is probably better for the AKP in the long run... but I can't see Erdogan climbing that far down from his high horse, either.) I was using polite understatement when I said "can't really see it".
But would joining the government be good for the MHP? It certainly wouldn't be good for HDP.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 11:25:13 am
Well duh. We all know how it ended for Menderes. I am talking in the terms of a political current - a tradition - here, not a party organization. Worth noting the DYP used the Menderes Democrats' horse symbol (which is essentially a Robin Hood symbol ... not all that befitting the latter-day DYP. Grin )
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 10:15:13 am
If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?
You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

Just to clarify things, "secular conservatives" used to vote parties like the DYP or the more nationalistic ANAP. Nowadays the Kemalist conservatives are represented by the Democratic Party or DP, which in last elections got a ridiculous share of vote arguably because a a majority of voters who identify with Kemalism back the present incarnation of the CHP.
... but mostly because a majority of voters who identify with the (original, Adnan Menderes. And thus moderate Kemalist, if you want. Or Kemalist + Democracy - open hostility to religiouses. + a new rural policy to lighten the load on smallhold farmers, back in the day. Which was probably the most important component at the time but doesn't much matter for this discussion) DP tradition vote AKP, which has been courting that tradition hard ever since being taken over by Erdogan and reinventing itself under its current name.

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 01:25:58 pm
DSP and CHP. Two parties (for a time), one vote base, one ideological current.



Anyways, looking over the results, the DHP completely cleaned the AKP's clock in Kurdistan, while its much heralded breakthrough in the cities is a thing, of sorts, but quite a minor thing. So Kobane lost the AKP the election.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 12:57:00 pm
Selahattin Demirtas, co-chairman HDP, thanked imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for supporting peace after HDP wins representation in parliament and denies the ruling AKP a single-party govt.  This does not sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance that includes MHP.  If so we are looking at HDP supporting AKP from the outside or HDP joining AKP in an alliance.
It doesn't sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance, full stop.
This may be crazy, but could the MHP prop up AKP?

I was about to ask the same question.

What would the MHP demand in return though...?

End to negotiations with the PKK.

Also, just power, ministers. They are not particularly ideological. They sat with the Democratic Left in the 90s, despite having been formed as an anti-Communist death squad.
That's because the CHP's claim to be to the AKP's left on any meaningful dimension is a joke, and meant as such.
18  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you mostly hold the same religious beliefs as your parents? on: June 07, 2015, 06:07:20 am
maybe i'd like to become a Buddhist Shamanist pagan (Buddhism will have integrating with indigenous shamanism because both have many similar beliefs.)
True, and of course happening in places like Mongolia and Tuva.

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: '00-'12 County Trend Map on: June 07, 2015, 04:24:14 am
Correct. Though, of course, you know, national swing of 3.5 points American style between those two elections. Tongue
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: '00-'12 County Trend Map on: June 07, 2015, 03:43:37 am
*cough* *uploaded late 2012* *cough*

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: June 04, 2015, 11:04:37 am
Since when do these SUK avatars exist?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS-01 Special Election Thread on: June 04, 2015, 09:16:40 am
Of course, if this fractured primary had happened ten years ago then Democrats would have nicked this seat in the first round by locking out Republicans from the runoff. Well, of course the Blue Dog was going to beat the (not all that left, actually) Black man in the runoff, but this would still be D+1. (Kelly then loses his seat to Alan Nunnelee in 2010 Tongue .)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: June 02, 2015, 03:06:48 pm
The point of no return regarding Scottish Independence has very very very probably been crossed during this election campaign. It may quite plausibly take another generation, but my money'd be on rather less than that.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 29, 2015, 02:11:18 pm
But as a more serious point, I will reiterate that the main electoral impact of larger seats with tighter quotas would be to a) greatly increase the impact of national swing while also b) reducing the power of incumbency.

So in effect each seat will have around 75,000 electors compared to 70,000 at present.

What's the main reason for reducing the number of MP's from 650 to 600?
Keeping commuterbelt backbenchers' seats intact.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 27, 2015, 12:57:54 pm
If it is then its a rather poor predictor of who actually ends up holding the post. Over the centuries we have had some very odd and very unlikely PMs.
Churchill comes to mind.
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