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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 29, 2015, 07:02:16 am
What will they pay the printing press employees with? Scrip printed on the same press?
Heh. At least these aren't unforeseen expenses.

Seriously though, it is not the matter of Greece being "kicked out" of the eurozone. The problem for Greece is, that, conditional on defaulting, being outside the euro is infinitely preferable to being inside. Greece really needs to devalue at this point. That is the only thing that can limit the pain of adjustment that will be happening now. And, of course, you can only devalue if you have your own currency.
And the problem still is that there is no exit mechanism, still. And no comprehension of the size of their failure among the groupthinkers around Merkel, still. Greece literally cannot get out and cannot afford to stay in, right now as at every point over the past four years.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 28, 2015, 07:32:29 am
How is it even possible to organise referendum so fast?
Printing pieces of paper with "yes" and "no" on it is very easy, and most real countries still have government printing presses that can do that at very short notice. Paper is a commodity, and has been since the mid 19th century.

And Greece has archaic-sounding but very functional rules regarding polling stations and pollworkers (and poll opening hours!) - always your local state primary school, all the teaching staff (and from dusk till dawn). So no pesky negotiations to rent precinct locations, perhaps not even a need to send out voter notifications.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 11:47:55 am

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.


Wouldn't coalescing with the AKP be the kiss of death for the CHP, given that opposition to the AKP is one of their electorate's most strongly-held positions?
Kiss of death is probably too harsh, but yes the CHP knows that coalescing with the AKP is not going to go over well (it would at the least have to look like a Grand Coalition... and even that is probably better for the AKP in the long run... but I can't see Erdogan climbing that far down from his high horse, either.) I was using polite understatement when I said "can't really see it".
But would joining the government be good for the MHP? It certainly wouldn't be good for HDP.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 11:25:13 am
Well duh. We all know how it ended for Menderes. I am talking in the terms of a political current - a tradition - here, not a party organization. Worth noting the DYP used the Menderes Democrats' horse symbol (which is essentially a Robin Hood symbol ... not all that befitting the latter-day DYP. Grin )
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 10:15:13 am
If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?
You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

Just to clarify things, "secular conservatives" used to vote parties like the DYP or the more nationalistic ANAP. Nowadays the Kemalist conservatives are represented by the Democratic Party or DP, which in last elections got a ridiculous share of vote arguably because a a majority of voters who identify with Kemalism back the present incarnation of the CHP.
... but mostly because a majority of voters who identify with the (original, Adnan Menderes. And thus moderate Kemalist, if you want. Or Kemalist + Democracy - open hostility to religiouses. + a new rural policy to lighten the load on smallhold farmers, back in the day. Which was probably the most important component at the time but doesn't much matter for this discussion) DP tradition vote AKP, which has been courting that tradition hard ever since being taken over by Erdogan and reinventing itself under its current name.

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 01:25:58 pm
DSP and CHP. Two parties (for a time), one vote base, one ideological current.



Anyways, looking over the results, the DHP completely cleaned the AKP's clock in Kurdistan, while its much heralded breakthrough in the cities is a thing, of sorts, but quite a minor thing. So Kobane lost the AKP the election.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 12:57:00 pm
Selahattin Demirtas, co-chairman HDP, thanked imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for supporting peace after HDP wins representation in parliament and denies the ruling AKP a single-party govt.  This does not sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance that includes MHP.  If so we are looking at HDP supporting AKP from the outside or HDP joining AKP in an alliance.
It doesn't sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance, full stop.
This may be crazy, but could the MHP prop up AKP?

I was about to ask the same question.

What would the MHP demand in return though...?

End to negotiations with the PKK.

Also, just power, ministers. They are not particularly ideological. They sat with the Democratic Left in the 90s, despite having been formed as an anti-Communist death squad.
That's because the CHP's claim to be to the AKP's left on any meaningful dimension is a joke, and meant as such.
8  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you mostly hold the same religious beliefs as your parents? on: June 07, 2015, 06:07:20 am
maybe i'd like to become a Buddhist Shamanist pagan (Buddhism will have integrating with indigenous shamanism because both have many similar beliefs.)
True, and of course happening in places like Mongolia and Tuva.

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: '00-'12 County Trend Map on: June 07, 2015, 04:24:14 am
Correct. Though, of course, you know, national swing of 3.5 points American style between those two elections. Tongue
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: '00-'12 County Trend Map on: June 07, 2015, 03:43:37 am
*cough* *uploaded late 2012* *cough*

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: June 04, 2015, 11:04:37 am
Since when do these SUK avatars exist?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS-01 Special Election Thread on: June 04, 2015, 09:16:40 am
Of course, if this fractured primary had happened ten years ago then Democrats would have nicked this seat in the first round by locking out Republicans from the runoff. Well, of course the Blue Dog was going to beat the (not all that left, actually) Black man in the runoff, but this would still be D+1. (Kelly then loses his seat to Alan Nunnelee in 2010 Tongue .)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: June 02, 2015, 03:06:48 pm
The point of no return regarding Scottish Independence has very very very probably been crossed during this election campaign. It may quite plausibly take another generation, but my money'd be on rather less than that.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 29, 2015, 02:11:18 pm
But as a more serious point, I will reiterate that the main electoral impact of larger seats with tighter quotas would be to a) greatly increase the impact of national swing while also b) reducing the power of incumbency.

So in effect each seat will have around 75,000 electors compared to 70,000 at present.

What's the main reason for reducing the number of MP's from 650 to 600?
Keeping commuterbelt backbenchers' seats intact.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 27, 2015, 12:57:54 pm
If it is then its a rather poor predictor of who actually ends up holding the post. Over the centuries we have had some very odd and very unlikely PMs.
Churchill comes to mind.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: May 27, 2015, 12:53:27 pm
Immigration is less of a salient issue in Scotland because has had no mass immigration since the 19th century and no non-white mass immigration ever.
I have a rather different theory on why UKIP and to a lesser extent Anti-Europeanism fail in Scotland... (Afleitch's point about Little Englandism is more a point but not yet on the mark I think.)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 01:12:31 pm
Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6
Actual first count result. Some tallypersons only reported the major candidates I guess?
FF 27.8
FG 20.6
SF 16.2
Renua 9.5
Lab 7.0
Green 5.3
Gardner 4.2
PBP 3.6
AAA 3.3
four other indies (jointly eliminated) 2.7 - that would have included my vote, I liked Holohan's debate performance so!
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 10:56:12 am
This looks like the first time a Fianna Fáil TD will be elected via by-election since the 90's.
And the first time FF gains a seat from another party* at a by-election since 1970.

*weasel words included to dismiss Neil Blaney's successor
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 20, 2015, 01:11:28 pm
Doing the Wirral part of the map reminded me that the inclusion of Upton in Wirral West is basically electoral trolling.

Labour hadn't won WW on its current boundaries since 2001 right? Surely that's the only seat of its kind.
Ilford North.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 01:56:47 pm
I'm not familiar with patterns inside Istanbul, could you describe the broad areas of good performance of each candidate ? Demirtas seems to poll better in the second circle of the city, not the centre and not the exurban areas, why would that be ?
I think those strong Demirtas areas are plenty far on the outskirts of the city. The three outermost districts, though officially in the city, are essentially countryside.

Anyways, the one is a 60s/70s built banlieue with lots of Kurdish rural migrants and the other is a 90s/2000s built banlieue with lots of Kurdish rural migrants.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 01:19:18 pm
As recently as 2006 the NDP was in power in Saskatchewan and its not at all inconceivable that they could come back to power in the eventual 'post-Wall era". The main difference between Saskatchewan and Alberta is that Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities than Calgary and Edmonton and that Saskatchewan has much more wheat farming while Alberta is more cattle ranching and also the oil and gas sector is bigger in Alberta.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkhcjI5Pwi0
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 12:40:26 pm
Yes, that is perfectly correct.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 05:36:10 am

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.
Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.

In the presidential election, the CHP actually beat out the AKP in Eskişehir. What was the deal there?
The AKP never took more than three of the six seats there, so hardly an unusual result.

No idea what's driving relative Kemalist strength there and couldn't do any better than guessing that the usual reasons (settlement of post 1918 DPs, military presence) also apply here.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 05:08:46 am

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.
Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: May 19, 2015, 05:02:06 am
They have a truly awful electoral system : 85 districts electing 2 to 31 members through D’Hondt PR. BUT, you have to get 10% of the vote nationally to be eligible to this way of repartition! AND if you fail to hit 10% nationally, even if you get 9.9%, all your votes get transferred to… the leading party nationally. -____-"
Um, no.

(Yes, I see the unsourced line in the wiki article that can be understood to mean that. But it doesn't. What happens is that as the no. of seats per constituency is fixed, if a lot of the vote in any one province falls prey to the threshold then the seats can be won on very low vote numbers. Elections up to and including 2002 were often hilarious in that respect. Heck, everything about the military-operated quasi-democracy of the 90s was hilarious if you didn't have to live in it.)
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