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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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10976  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA: Risch leads LaRocco by 16 on: September 08, 2007, 05:15:38 pm
Ah, just caused by an open seat and a bit of name recognition on behalf of LaRocco.

Risch has surprisingly bad name recognition for someone who served as Acting Governor for a year and a half.  The 16 point gap should probably swell a bit in Risch's favor as the campaign progresses.  (Or, once he's appointed, and can actually get to work doing stuff for Idaho.)
10977  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / SurveyUSA: Risch leads LaRocco by 16 on: September 08, 2007, 04:20:48 pm
Risch proves to be the "weakest" of the "strongest" candidates, but not by any significant margin.  All polls have a MoE of plus or minus 4.3%.

Risch (R) 52%
LaRocco (D) 36%

Simpson (R) 54%
LaRocco (D) 34%

Kempthorne (R) 55%
LaRocco (D) 36%
10978  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hill: Tsongas and Ogonowski win in Mass. special primary on: September 08, 2007, 03:57:21 pm
Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?
10979  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: First Poll in Colorado on: September 08, 2007, 03:55:48 pm
Schaffer internal? He's toast.

A year and two months out?  Nah.

A 45-40 internal is about where I'd expect this to be.  I also expect Schaffer to pick up about two or three points over the polling come election day, similar (but less in magnitude) to how Allard gained signficantly between the final poll and election day in 2002.
10980  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hagel Decision Due Monday on: September 08, 2007, 03:52:21 pm
Wish I had bought more than one share of Democrat to pick up Nebraska a couple months back on Intrade.
10981  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What makes this map? on: September 08, 2007, 03:50:27 pm
A nativist paleocon GOP and monolithic center-populist democrat party. A disgusting set of political coalitions IMO.

Even then, there's no reason for Idaho and Wyoming to be voting different ways.

Maybe that spectacular Larry LaRocco is on the ticket!  <3
10982  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Candidate Declaration Thread on: September 08, 2007, 03:41:06 pm
Governor of  the Mideast.

I'm running for Vice-President, with gporter.

Does that mean you're dropping out of the gubernatorial race?

No, it's already been said that he is running for both.
10983  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Legislation Re-introduction Thread on: September 08, 2007, 03:39:52 pm
On second thoughts, I would like to re-introduce all of my legislation. I'd sort-of hoped that if everyone had done what I originally did then the next Senate might not have such a serious glut problem.

Oh well. Too late now it seems.

I'm starting to believe that we need to give more power to the PPT here to control and manage the queue.

I'm only disappointed about the bulk of DWTL's legislation being picked up.  I don't have a problem with cherry picking select items, but honestly, some of that stuff is so disasterous and poorly written that the best course of action would be for a supporter to re-write the legislation and re-introduce it as "new."  I mean, the first course of action for us will be to waste time with amendments on every damn bill just to correct spelling and grammar.
10984  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Educational Funding Clarification Bill on: September 08, 2007, 03:32:58 pm
Nay to removing Section 8.
Abstain with regard to Section 9.
10985  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT Nominations Thread (21st Senate) on: September 08, 2007, 03:30:18 pm
I would interpret that, for the nomination to be valid, the person being nominated would need to accept it.

Which, to me, would be the same as announcing their own candidacies.
10986  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Judicial Term Limits Amendment on: September 08, 2007, 03:26:05 pm
...moderate, rational justices who rule on reason rather than ideological purity would be easily reapproved.

What are you prattling onabout verily? YOU see your ideological preferences as 'reasonable', and 'rational'.  Everyone does.  Your expectations of the court are quite simply fantasy.

Anyway Bullmoose is the classic example of someone who, while no more 'rational', 'reasonable', or 'impartial', and just as political as the rest of us, manages to pose as such simply because the ideology he imposes is more or less the status quo.  He doesn't rock the boat.  But to suggest that supporting the existing power-relationships isn't 'political' is just silly.

Perhapas you can only see things through your own personal ideological grudge-based glasses, but for a significant portion of voters, especially as it relates to affairs inside of Atlasia, we put far more weight on activity and ability to foster debate.

My first vote was for EarlAW over Rockefeller Republican, despite the fact that RR and I are now in the same party and much more ideological compatible: the most important thing to me was that I felt that EarlAW would make a better, more active Senator.

I don't see why you have so little faith in the Senate, specifically when we're trying to set the bar for bouncing a justice at the 7 vote "veto-proof" level.
10987  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: To arms! II on: September 08, 2007, 11:00:43 am
Just to clarify- am i currently the lt. governor? i was under the impression that there were legal issues with the last voting booth.

at any rate, i've opened the PI amendment voting booth.

Since the legal challenge was dropped, yes, you would appear to be the Southeast Lt. Governor.

And acting Governor too, I suppose, considering.
10988  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hill: Tsongas and Ogonowski win in Mass. special primary on: September 07, 2007, 11:37:00 pm
Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.
10989  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Louisiana statewide candidates on: September 07, 2007, 10:15:09 pm
Why didn't any Democrat challenge turncoat Treasurer Kennedy?  Was there not enough time after he switched parties to file?  Is there a signature requirement?

Because he'd be virtually impossible to beat?
10990  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Governor MAS117 on: September 07, 2007, 10:11:48 pm
I would just like to say that I strongly, strongly, strongly suggest you hold a special election.

Regardless of what you decide, however, I wish you the best of luck in the new job.
10991  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End to Districts Amendment on: September 07, 2007, 10:08:06 pm
This is certainly the version that I prefer.

Aye.
10992  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies on: September 07, 2007, 04:30:37 pm
Obviously, in Mercer, all but Hamilton would be Democratic.  The Republican-leaning towns on the Hunterdon border would be totally overwhelmed by the Princeton slug of super Dems.
10993  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies on: September 07, 2007, 04:27:48 pm
Here's Somerset County:

All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Somerset County as a whole is about R+1. The Somerset South West district is easily R+10, which means the rest of the county leans marginally Democratic. Of course, some of that is concentrated in Bound Brook and Somerset, which is about D+3 (you're right, I was underestimating the size of Somerset itself), but Somerville should also be about D+3 with the Democratic-leaning Somerville, Raritan and Manville balancing out the GOP-leaning Bridgewater. North Plainfield and Far Hills contains Democratic areas in the east but is probably around R+5 overall. The Somerset areas of Morristown and Bernardsville should be around R+3; Bernardsville is marginal, but the Bernards Twp areas are Republican.

On a whole though, where it counts, those marginal places still elect Republicans on the local level.

If Somerville has a Republican mayor, I'd guess Somerville would have a Republican MP.
10994  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Homes entering foreclosure at record on: September 07, 2007, 04:26:13 pm
Too bad the slump in housing prices isn't also being seen with rents for apartments and condominiums. 

That's because the mortgage problems are focused primarily at high-risk first-time buyers and established buyers who were trying to flip a second property.  Condo's are naturally a rough market, so you won't see much fluctuation there.

More accurately, it's because the cost of home mortgages in many parts of the country—Boston, California, and New York, for example—increased at a rate far exceeding rental prices there.

In my hometown of Somerville, MA, homes skyrocketed in value since the turn of the century, while rents actually declined slightly.
10995  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: National Governors' Federation on: September 07, 2007, 03:35:56 pm
Sorry to burst your bubble but the regons have been in a state of disorganization, to put it lightly, for over a year. The regions are disorganized because a good number of them have no working government.

And this will fix it (at least some).

If I was a gambling man, which I am actually, I would bet you any amount of money that it wont.

What's the harm in trying?  And the fact that our President is a pessimist when it comes to Regional gov't doesn't comfort me as a Governor. Tongue

You don't deserve comfort. You deserve to be thrown out of office.

For what!?

Blue avatar!  Wink
10996  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Legislation Re-introduction Thread on: September 07, 2007, 02:52:31 pm
I'll reintroduce my bills as well as any DWTL sponsored.

I suggest you read some of them over first.
10997  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MS: Eaves ad on healthcare on: September 07, 2007, 01:54:03 pm
Awwwww.  Forget Hillary and nominate this guy for President!  It would be like the 1976 election on brown acid.

Except, unlike Jimmy Carter, Eaves would never be able to carry Mississippi.
10998  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: more hints that Keyes may jump into the race on: September 07, 2007, 01:51:30 pm
More signs that Keyes is going to run: the emergence of locusts; a tidal wave of frogs; rivers turning to blood; the sun going dark.
10999  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: National Governors' Federation on: September 07, 2007, 01:48:07 pm
How wouuld this solve anything?

It seems kind of pointless.

The way I see it, you would use your combined powers to solve crimes and fight evil-doers.
11000  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Educational Funding Clarification Bill on: September 07, 2007, 01:41:04 pm
I feel like the most powerful Senator ever.

You are.
I'm frankly not sure how constitutional your current role is.

EDIT: I suppose unless you try to cast any new votes as Northeastern Senator it's okay... weird as it sounds.

I know I don't have the constitutional power to do that—I resigned the post of Northeastern Senator two hours ago.  Wink
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