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10976  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who is dumber on Tradesports? on: October 02, 2007, 11:02:03 pm
Gore is going to 0 before Paul is going to 0.

Besides, Paul has a greater chance of moving higher from here because of the "crazies."  You could still make money on that (though I wouldn't risk it—it's like trying to make money on the Alpaca market before that crashes).
10977  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Quinnipiac NJ-Sen: Lautenberg (D) 39%, Generic Republican (R) 36% on: October 02, 2007, 10:57:19 pm
New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.
I think Kean Jr. showed us last year that that name isnt really going to help them compete in fundraising.  Those Kean family connections were quite unimpressive.

Kean wasn't able to outraise Menendez, but he was indeed able to raise enough money to "compete."

Bramnick and Pennacchio look like they'd struggle to hit $5 million total (and would probably be lucky to get to $3 million).
10978  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: ATTN: MAS and Rockefeller Republican on: October 02, 2007, 10:46:09 pm
What the hell does this even mean? This makes no sense.

i) A successful vote of two thirds of voting (either in the affirmative or in the negative) members Legislative Assembly of the Northeast Region.

ii) A successful vote of majority of all members of the Legislative Assembly, voting, abstaining and absent members combined.

You wrote that there has to be a successful vote of 2/3 of the members, but then it has be a successful vote of the majority of members? What the hell?

Part (i) says that 2/3 of those who cast a ballot must cast an aye vote for the amendment to pass.

Part (ii) says that 1/2 of those who are registered voters in the Northeast must vote aye for the amendment to pass, as "absent members" seems to reference those who may vote but otherwise do not.

Absent members refers to people who don't vote at all.

Which is exactly what I said.  Smiley
10979  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report notes GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 02, 2007, 10:06:59 pm
If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

Quite a delicious irony for Republicans. Why do you think Tsongas can't pivot leftward on the War? She has no voting record or past statements on the issue, right?

Her opinion on the issue was thoroughly documented in the Democratic Primary, which was assumed to be the only election that mattered in MA-05.  If she "pivoted left," she'd get hammered for "flip-flopping."
10980  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Quinnipiac NJ-Sen: Lautenberg (D) 39%, Generic Republican (R) 36% on: October 02, 2007, 09:14:11 pm
New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.
10981  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report notes GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 02, 2007, 09:00:28 pm
If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.
10982  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End of the Budget Amendment on: October 02, 2007, 08:37:54 pm
Aye.
10983  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: MI is now partially shut down on: October 02, 2007, 12:06:00 am
Michiganders are amateurs at shutting down government. Not only does it last for less than a day, it's also along partisan lines. Pathetic.

Tongue
And the taxes are probably chump change too.

6% Services tax: landscapers, escorts, storage (eventually this could lead to storing money and banks), barbers, tanning salons, nail salons, packaging, labelling, basically any service w/o a huge lobbyist in Lansing.

Plus other taxes
Building off of what Verily said, I was just comparing to NJ.

Which, incidentally, has a blanket 7% sales tax that covers basically everything except food, medicine and clothing. Oh, and gasoline. New Jersey has a stupidly low gasoline excise tax.

Only California has higher sales tax, though Mississippi has the same level of sales tax.

Rhode Island and Tennessee are 7% statewide before local option, as well.

And plenty of locales have higher or similar sales taxes as New Jersey because such "local options."  It's 7% in Philly; 7.75% in Las Vegas, NV; 8.375% in New York City; 8.6% in Branson, MO and Denver, CO; 9% in Chicago; 9.5% in Utica, NY; and a whopping 10% in Montgomery, AL.
10984  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: ATTN: MAS and Rockefeller Republican on: October 01, 2007, 08:55:27 pm
What the hell does this even mean? This makes no sense.

i) A successful vote of two thirds of voting (either in the affirmative or in the negative) members Legislative Assembly of the Northeast Region.

ii) A successful vote of majority of all members of the Legislative Assembly, voting, abstaining and absent members combined.

You wrote that there has to be a successful vote of 2/3 of the members, but then it has be a successful vote of the majority of members? What the hell?

Part (i) says that 2/3 of those who cast a ballot must cast an aye vote for the amendment to pass.

Part (ii) says that 1/2 of those who are registered voters in the Northeast must vote aye for the amendment to pass, as "absent members" seems to reference those who may vote but otherwise do not.
10985  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End of the Budget Amendment on: October 01, 2007, 12:42:07 pm
If people really find my suggestion as to how to proceed with respect to the budget too time consuming, unwieldly, and inconvienient...that's just sad.  I've reworked the process such that it is a simple matter of ideological debate rather than a specific battle over numbers where, if the Senate is genuinely apathetic to the whole process, it can simply pass a bill authorizing continued debt spending.

I understand that we're not here doing this "full time," but let's at least put a minimum of effort into this thing, no?  Can we at least pretend there are consequences to passing spending bills?
10986  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. on: October 01, 2007, 12:31:39 pm
Mr. Moderate, "hate" is not too strong a word. If you have time to waste, you should see how Jehlen and her allies are discussed in The Somerville News.

As someone who lives in Somerville, I assure you that even speaking the name "The Somerville News" is to give it too much credit.

And yes, Winchester is INFINITELY more Republican than Somerville (Cambridge-lite).  It is a miracle that Bill White was ever elected as a Republican here ever; further a miracle that Charlie Shannon was ever elected as a Republican himself.

Of course, both eventually had a "change of conscience" and switched to Democrats.
10987  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Larry Craig: The Gift that Keeps on Giving on: October 01, 2007, 11:53:07 am
Well, it's October, and we still have Senator Craig.

Idaho may not be koo-koo krazy with a 'k', but Senator Kraig is, apparently.
10988  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. on: October 01, 2007, 11:52:03 am
That's an interesting race to analogize here, and I mean that positively. I would say that Jehlen wasn't just a weak candidate, she was hated by the old machine in Somerville which voted for Bill White as a protest. Conversely, Bill White wasn't that strong a candidate, he just enjoyed a solid reputation in Somerville and became the suitable vehicle for protest votes.

Differences: state vs. federal races, obviously. White was a liberal who differed from the city Democrats on local policies and has actually switched to the Democrats since that election. People didn't mind elected a Republican to the legislature, but might feel differently about sending George W. Bush another proxy in Washington. Secondly, I can't imagine people hate Niki Tsongas with the fervor they felt against Jehlen. Some people will want to vote against her because they don't respect her or how she won the nomination, but there will be no STOP TSONGAS campaign the way there was against Jehlen.

Yep.  Old Somerville vs. New Somerville.  Though I don't know if people "hated" Jehlen.
10989  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: My first attempt at a Proposition for the Mideast on: October 01, 2007, 11:41:42 am
I'd like an initiative to bring back the death penalty.  I'll have it written in time for the next proposition voting.

I can already guarentee that if it reaches my desk, I will veto it.  I am firmly againest the death penalty.

It's an "initiative."  Direct, people-based democracy.  The Governor can't veto an I&R item.
10990  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Extradition Bill on: October 01, 2007, 02:04:18 am
Including yourself, Verily, Brandon, Earl, and myself, we've got a Repressive Backwater voting bloc here in the Senate!  Hooray.

Defend killing your own citizens in peacetime if you want.

Unpopular though the issue will likely prove to be in this Senate, I do believe the death penalty is applicable for the worst of the worst offenses when there is no doubt to the guilt of the accused.
10991  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End of the Budget Amendment on: October 01, 2007, 02:00:39 am
And when that doesn't work out in one or two years, we'll be debating whether or not to abolish the budget completely--again.

Better in incremental steps, then.
10992  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. on: October 01, 2007, 12:35:46 am
If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.


Probably about right. We had a Senate Race last year that looked a bit like this. Ultra-Heavy Democratic District(Romney lost it by 20 points in 2002), but a weak Democrat against a strong Republican. It looked like it was getting close and ended being about 54-46. The last five points are enormous climb for a Republican in Mass. Its good that Ognowski has gotten close, but each point afterwards is going to be a mammoth climb.

No such district exists in the Commonwealth—all "close" races were in districts Romney carried easily.
10993  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Extradition Bill on: October 01, 2007, 12:15:32 am
Nope.  I was referring to actual third  world countries.

It really can't be read that way in context, but if you want to back away from the statement, that's fine by me.

Signed,
Your Friendly "Repressive Backwater" Senator

Including yourself, Verily, Brandon, Earl, and myself, we've got a Repressive Backwater voting bloc here in the Senate!  Hooray.
10994  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End of the Budget Amendment on: October 01, 2007, 12:10:29 am
Same here.
10995  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: September 30, 2007, 09:35:23 pm
Gore has continued his climb to 9.5. Clinton is down a bit.

Gingrich announces he's not running, and falls to 0.1. The top 4 Republicans gain because of this. Paul is now a record high of 7.0. McCain is unchanged in a distant 5th. Huckabee falls.



Democrats
Clinton 66.2
Obama 16.4
Gore 9.5
Edwards 6.6
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.8
Thompson 24.6
Romney 23.2
Paul 7.0
McCain 4.6
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
Gingrich 0.1

QUIK QUIK BUY MORE PAUL HES GOING TO 100
10996  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Gporter's stances on the issues: on: September 30, 2007, 09:29:12 pm
HIV/AIDS-we need to work to find cures for these dieseases and not stop researching until we find a cure for these sicknesses. Though we may not be successful at the beginning, but like I said before, we need to put forth good effort and work hard so that we can have a good result in the long run in finding a cure for these illnesses.

That's not the issue. We're likely decades away from treating HIV so it is rendered harmless to your body and untransmittable to other's bodies. The real question is what to do to keep the disease from spreading even further and wrecking our society even more.

Honestly, it's not really destroying any American/Atlasian "societies."  HIV is uncurable, but extremely treatable over the long term, so long as those infected follow strict guidelines with regard to prescription drug cocktails.

It remains a "rare" disease, and transmission is almost completely avoidable.

The real problem with HIV is what it is currently doing to the African continent, where honestly, they don't know any better.  I mean, seriously, they believe that the "cure" for AIDS involves raping virgins.
10997  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. on: September 30, 2007, 09:24:27 pm
Safe Kucinich.
10998  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: McCain: No Muslim president, U.S. better with Christian one on: September 30, 2007, 06:46:51 pm
Well, if the final ballot came down to McCain and Keith Ellison, I have to say that I'd be voting for McCain.

Speak for yourself.

I thought that when I said "I'd be voting for McCain," I was speaking for myself.
10999  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Extradition Bill on: September 30, 2007, 06:43:32 pm
Not really.  The federal government should take as strong a stance against executions as possible.  Just because some regions choose to be repressive backwaters doesn't mean that the Atlasian government should be sending people over to third world hellholes to be executed.

I strongly object to the Northeast being called a backwater and/or a third world hellhole.

As a side note, this sort of extradition policy would be a big public relations plus for Atlasia looking to rebuild common ground with allies like Canada and the European Union.

From what I hear, we "ain't no superpower," so what does that kind of thing matter?
11000  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. on: September 30, 2007, 05:25:14 pm
Redmond won because a Green in Santa Fe siphoned off middle class liberal Anglo votes against an Hispanic machine hack, and Redmond took the seat with a plurality of something like 39% of the vote (don't hold me to that percentage). In the subsequent election, the third party factor was gone, and although Redmond worked hard at it, and did increase his vote with the Native Americans in particular in the Pueblos and beyond (up to something like maybe 43% of the total vote), it was not enough, and he lost. If the Pubbie wins in a clean two party race in the Mass-5, he will have a chance to cement himself into the seat, if he has the skills. Does he have the skills? I doubt it.

There are a bunch of third-party candidates running in MA-05 for the 2007 Special.

No matter what his skills are, it is going to be very difficult for an inexperienced Republican to hold a seat that Hillary Clinton is likely to carry by close to 2 to 1 in 2008.  Also, he is likely going to have to cast some tough votes that will be very unpopular in the district like against expanding S-CHIP and other economic issues. 

Probably not too many votes.  I'd anticipate his record to be the most liberal of House Republicans.
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