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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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10976  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections on: October 26, 2007, 08:55:51 am
Actually, according to PoliticsNJ today, Jen Beck is solidly in the lead.

Quote from: PoliticsNJ.com
This week, Karcher is in trouble in her re-election bid, with some polls showing her six to nine points behind Republican Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck. Despite the Karcher campaign's efforts to drag Beck's numbers down with New York market attack ads the campaign has run since October 15th, Beck's campaign isn't crumbling, or showing any signs of fissure.

I'm moving this out of my own personal "toss-up" category to "lean Republican."  Probably means Panter is sweating a bit, too.

I anticipate Republicans will be going in to the next session with a 23-17 deficit in the State Senate, and a 48-32 deficit in the State Assembly.  This election cycle so far has not been going as well for Democrats as I expected—especially considering how poorly Republicans did in the recruiting game.
10977  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Environmental Policy Bill of 2007 on: October 26, 2007, 07:31:54 am
I would like to motion for the adopting of an amendment striking Section 2 from this legislation as a friendly amendment.

Senators shall have 24 hours to object to the adoption of this amendment.

I support removing it, but I doubt you'll be able to get it accepted as friendly.
10978  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Estate Tax Reform Bill on: October 26, 2007, 07:29:32 am
Could someone enlighten me as to the current levels of the Estate Tax?
10979  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Electi on: October 26, 2007, 07:22:18 am
I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.
10980  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA Sen: Report says Davis (R) likely to drop out on: October 26, 2007, 07:16:05 am
Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

Quote from: Times Dispatch
On the campaign trail, Devolites Davis describes herself as an independent, a moderate who can best represent a centrist constituency. At a forum Thursday night before Equality Fairfax, a gay-rights organization, she called herself a "RINO" -- Republican in Name Only -- a derogatory term used by members of the GOP's conservative wing.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html
10981  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Environmental Policy Bill of 2007 on: October 25, 2007, 02:33:52 pm
I move that section six be amended as follows...

Section 6: Sustainable Development in Forestry
1. For every tree cut down by any company, co-operative, or individual working in the forestry industry, that company, co-operative, or individual must plant a tree of the same species in the same forest or other woodland environment.

Ah, excellent catch.  Certainly, I support this.
10982  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will the Mississippi's Governors race play out. on: October 25, 2007, 02:31:05 pm
Don't let fundraising numbers fool you...Eaves isn't raising money but self-financing his campaign entirely, and using it as a campaign point to show how he's not in anyone's pocket.

Poor fundraising is a sign of poor organization and poor institutional support.  If people don't think you can win, people don't open up their purse to you.
10983  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Electi on: October 25, 2007, 02:27:22 pm
I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
Then there’s the rumor that George Norcross, who polls regularly on all manner of things, commissioned a survey that has Beck up by three points.

And, what else is going on?

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
The Republican State Committee is playing in some interesting places. It’s putting some money into Districts 3 and 4, as well as into Carmen Pio Costa’s Assembly race (against Gary Schaer and Fred Scalera), which has attracted some attention. Pio Costa, whose father runs a successful real estate investment firm, will raise $100,000 or so on his own and got a boost from Trenton.

And one more.

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
But there’s also a rumor that Cardinale is so far enough ahead in the polls that the Democrats are seriously considering pulling out here and putting the resources into Ellen Karcher’s race.

There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.
10984  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Oklahoma Congressional District Races for 2008 on: October 25, 2007, 02:19:14 pm
The more I look at the Senate race, the more I'm saddened to see Jim Inhofe, despite being extremely unpopular in Oklahoma, will probably cruise to a pretty convincing win.  I'm not counting Andrew Rice out, yet, especially given Inhofe's unpopularity, but I'm losing hope.  One reason, Inhofe has DEEP, DEEP pockets and Rice has just deep pockets.

Seldom do you hear folk with net positive approval ratings given the tag "extremely unpopular."
10985  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So much for running a competitive campaign in North Carolina on: October 25, 2007, 12:49:20 pm
At this point, Democrats might as well just run Erskine Bowles again.
10986  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governors Vulnerability Rankings From The Washington Post on: October 25, 2007, 12:29:43 pm
If you want vulnerable, check out the latest Rasmussen poll from IL. Gov Blagojevich is polling at half the approval rate of Bush.

Key numbers:
Pres. Bush (31% approval):
14% Excellent
17% Good
16% Fair
52% Poor
1% Not Sure

Gov. Blagojevich (16% approval):
5% Excellent
11% Good
37% Fair
46% Poor
1% Not Sure



Meanwhile, Blagojevich could still pull a plurality of general election voters.  Way to be, Illinois.
10987  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky county map predictions? on: October 25, 2007, 12:28:07 pm
I think Fletcher will lose Bracken, Robertson, and Campbell, but he might win Grant. I think Fletcher may win Martin County also.

Campbell County endured so much grief from conservatism 20 years ago that I just can't imagine him winning it now.

Is that before or after Diebold changes the numbers?
10988  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections on: October 25, 2007, 12:26:51 pm
PoliticsNJ is reporting that Dick Codey is pulling out of the 39th Senate race, essentially ceding the district to the incumbent Republicans.
10989  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will the Mississippi's Governors race play out. on: October 25, 2007, 12:20:05 pm
Mississippi maps are no fun.

White counties = blue
Black counties = red

You don't think that Eaves's Jesus crap will persuade any whites?
Eaves will flip a few counties that are a slim-majority white.

I think he may get more than a few. Mississippi gubernatorial races are usually highly competitive.

I'm sure I'll take hell for this post in the form of a sharply worded chide from Harry, but honestly, there's really been little evidence that I've seen indicating that this race is competitive in the slightest.  The few clues I get—namely a significantly weaker Dem slate than was run in 2003 and a significant Barbour fundraising advantage—don't exactly point to this race being close.

I keep looking at this race, and I keep seeing Bush/Kerry numbers.  We'll see.
10990  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Atlasian Sol on: October 25, 2007, 05:05:33 am
wiki updating is the responsibility of the Attorney General, not the GM.

OK - my bad - I just think it's kinda odd that there's no entry for the country of Atlasia.

We'd need to agree on what Atlasia is first.  Which is, surprisingly, quite difficult.
10991  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hill: State by state on: October 25, 2007, 05:01:45 am
Five bucks says the Allen campaign is pissed as hell that DailyKos released the results of that poll.
10992  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So much for running a competitive campaign in North Carolina on: October 25, 2007, 03:45:33 am
Once North Carolina finds out Neal is gay, his numbers can only go up!
10993  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE Senate: Kerrey officially out of race. on: October 25, 2007, 02:56:26 am
Not necessarily.  Now, I will agree that Oklahoma is very likely going to remain Republican in the Senate, but its not impossible for Inhofe to lose.  He is not very well liked amongst his own state.  However, the state has a much better chance of flipping in the Presidential race than in the Senate race, but neither is impossible.  I think... wait, I KNOW, the federal Democrats have a very good shot in Oklahoma this time around due to several factors which I've already mentioned. 

Please, do not laugh at me every time I mention Oklahoma possibly going Democrat.  I have very legitimate reasons for saying such and, frankly, it is very immature when you laugh and ridicule me for my analysis.  You seriously don't think I know anything about Oklahoma if I say Democrats have a chance.  I know I am immature for constantly whining about it, but how would you feel if someone constantly kept scoffing at your comments every time you made them.

It is also GUARANTEED that the 2008 map will look NOTHING like 2004.

It's not fair, I know, but everyone laughs and rips at you because we all believe—for very good reason—that your predictions are clouded by wishful thinking and have little grounding in reality.  Maybe you'll be right and we'll all be proven wrong!  (Don't hold your breath.)

I don't go around insisting that Massachusetts could possibly be in play for Republicans in 2008 (Giuliani is a different kind of candidate and is socially liberal and has connections with the Italian community and Kerry has low approvals and the map is changing and whatever) and that maybe there's an outside chance that Kerry could get ousted by, say, that Ogonowski dude.  But if I did, feel free to mock and ridicule, because that's just as ridiculous as a Dem pick up in Oklahoma by a "true progressive."
10994  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So much for running a competitive campaign in North Carolina on: October 25, 2007, 02:24:22 am
On the other hand, people are willing to swear that homosexuality is not a choice.  Interesting.  What makes them think they know how God operates any more than any one else.

Well, I'm willing to swear that my homosexuality is not a choice.  It has nothing to do with "knowing God."  More to do with "knowing myself."

You know.  The part where guys cause erections and women don't.

I am assuming then, that you are attracted to both men and women, but make the concious decision to only have sex with women, cause that's what God wants you to do.

You can argue that homosexuality is wrong all you want.  I think that pedophelia is wrong, but I also strongly doubt that's a "choice."  People don't choose to be attracted to people with blond hair, or women with large breasts, or someone who spends 12 hours a day in the gym.  It happens because of our genetic preprogramming.
10995  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: RedState.org bans supporting Ron Paul on: October 25, 2007, 01:18:52 am
Redstate.org = the conservative version of DailyKos.

Enough said.

Agreed, anyone who supports Kos and DU and rips on "Republicans" for limtiing debate on Redstate.org is a hypocrite.  I would remind everyone here that Ron Paul has been at every Republican Party debate.

Ron Paul is a Republican who led the Texas delegation in supporting Reagan in 1976, so I fail to see your point. Clinton isn't so popular at DailyKos, but there's no restriction on posting comments or diaries in favor of her.

But there is a restriction about supporting Cindy Sheehan in her bid for Congress.  Six in one hand, half-a-dozen in the other.

Umm, I see pro Sheehan comments and diaries all the time there.

http://cindysheehan.dailykos.com/
10996  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ME Sen: Collins 56%; Allen 33% on: October 25, 2007, 01:02:55 am
Well, as a former moderate Republican firmly located in the heart of New England, I can tell you that, after voting for Kerry in 2004, I'm leaning much more towards a vote for Giuliani than I am a vote for Hillary Clinton.

I live in Nassau County, on LI. A generally republican leaning area of LI, many NYC commuters, one of the most heavily Italian American neighborhoods in one of the heaviest Italian American counties in the country.  As a whole a Republican leaning area, but not socially conservative.  An area where Rudy would have had a tremendous amount of appeal to, much more so than other Republicans.  An area where Rudy was very well liked,  However, as his Iraq views have become more and more well known the opinion of him has dropped dramatically. 

I don't doubt for a minute that Rudy is not as popular in the NYC metro area than he was, 7 years ago, since we have polls confirming that.

But, of course, Nassau County has virtually nothing in common with Maine.
10997  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So much for running a competitive campaign in North Carolina on: October 25, 2007, 01:01:11 am

It would make a difference to me.  Besides, I know for a fact it is a choice.  The Bible says God created Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve.  If God created every human being and he made them in His image, and He is not gay, then there is not a single soul on the face of this earth that ever lived or lives today or that will live in the future that has been born gay.  It just doesn't happen.  I am correct about that, too.  I know I am right, not because I said so, but thats what God's Word says.  It doesn't matter if you believe that or not, because ITS THE TRUTH.

There is a saying that says "The Bible said it, I believe it, and that settles it.".  I like to rephrase that, "The Bible said it and that settles it, so I believe it."

What makes you qualified, exactly, to speculate on the sexual orientation of God?  I mean, is our Lord and Creator really f***ing chicks up there in heaven?  I mean, seriously?  God is STRAIGHT?  The hell?
10998  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections on: October 25, 2007, 12:57:31 am
I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
Then there’s the rumor that George Norcross, who polls regularly on all manner of things, commissioned a survey that has Beck up by three points.

And, what else is going on?

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
The Republican State Committee is playing in some interesting places. It’s putting some money into Districts 3 and 4, as well as into Carmen Pio Costa’s Assembly race (against Gary Schaer and Fred Scalera), which has attracted some attention. Pio Costa, whose father runs a successful real estate investment firm, will raise $100,000 or so on his own and got a boost from Trenton.

And one more.

Quote from: Nick Acocela's Politifax
But there’s also a rumor that Cardinale is so far enough ahead in the polls that the Democrats are seriously considering pulling out here and putting the resources into Ellen Karcher’s race.

There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.
10999  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Worst US State on: October 24, 2007, 11:46:02 pm
They probably don't like it because of ... Camden, but even those places are being rebuilt.



I think... I think I'm going to disagree?
11000  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ME Sen: Collins 56%; Allen 33% on: October 24, 2007, 11:39:37 pm
Well, as a former moderate Republican firmly located in the heart of New England, I can tell you that, after voting for Kerry in 2004, I'm leaning much more towards a vote for Giuliani than I am a vote for Hillary Clinton.
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