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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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10976  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-Senate: Shaheen stretches her lead against Sununu to 16 on: October 04, 2007, 05:32:00 pm
She's very anti-Iraq War now, but she was a supporter in 2002. She's not the most principled politician around.

Well, that's pretty much where the entire country is.  Former Iraq War supporters.
10977  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Atlantic City mayor has been AWOL for a week; random guy appoints himself on: October 04, 2007, 03:08:32 pm
High tea with Jimmy Hoffa?  Jumping from safehouse to safehouse until he reaches the Mexico border?
10978  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hill: State by state on: October 04, 2007, 02:18:22 pm
Good news: Tsongas is using the Iraq issue to her advantage.

It's a pretty bland ad.  Doesn't put her on the offensive at all, and honestly, I'm not sure my strategy at this point would be to root for the clock to hit double zero.
10979  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: If Mitt Romney Was Not A Mormon on: October 04, 2007, 03:59:20 am
If Romney was not a Mormon... he would still be a disingenuous prick.

Someone please explain to me why Romney is a strong candidate aside from his religion, I just don't get it.

His strongest point is his charisma.

I don't think he's charismatic at all.  I think he's a cold fish.  Why is he charismatic, because he looks like he was built by a focus group?  To me, charisma means an ability to connect with an individual in the audience and make them think that they can trust you and believe in you.  These days, authenticity is the key to charisma.  The over-polished blow dried candidate went out of style ten years ago.

Well, it won him an election in 2002.  He's very well polished, has good looks, and connects well in intimate audiences.

You don't seem to like Romney going in to this, so I wouldn't expect you to be "charmed" by him—you clearly don't want to be.
10980  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: If Mitt Romney Was Not A Mormon on: October 04, 2007, 01:42:16 am
If Romney was not a Mormon... he would still be a disingenuous prick.

Someone please explain to me why Romney is a strong candidate aside from his religion, I just don't get it.

His strongest point is his charisma.
10981  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Atlasian-United States Relations Exploration Act on: October 04, 2007, 12:29:21 am
Aye on the amendement.
10982  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Adult Stem Cell Research Enhancement [Bill] on: October 04, 2007, 12:26:34 am
Result on Ebowed's Amendment
Aye: 2 (Ebowed; Earl)
Nay: 6 (Sam; Al; Brandon; afleitch; Verily; Lewis)
Abstain [Didn't Vote]: 2 (Moderate; Rob)

With this vote count, the Amendment has failed.

For the record, Nay.
10983  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: 21st Senate Notice Board on: October 04, 2007, 12:23:02 am
I've never recieved any PM's to sticky this so either something got screwed up or people are lying, I have gotten all the reported posts and as SPC said I have been really busy lately though that should be over now.

Well, certainly, thanks for stickying this now.
10984  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Ebowed News Corporation (ENC) on: October 03, 2007, 11:54:50 pm
I'd have figured you to be the last one to be pushing a mega-store like Target.
10985  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Governor MAS117 on: October 03, 2007, 11:52:48 pm
I'm assuming that Governors and Lt. Governors are elected separately?
10986  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MN-Star Tribune: Pawlenty approval rating highest in 4 years on: October 03, 2007, 01:43:47 pm
Well the poll is crap but not too far off from the SUSA ones. But please note 59% isn't really that high, considering the numbers for Schweitzer, Fruedenthal, Henry, Lynch, etc.

This is also largely because the legislature is not in session, and thus he isn't vetoing things people like.

Regardless, it's still idiotic to think he'd deliver Minnesota as the VP on the GOP ticket unless you're a total hack.

High, but not astronomical.  Got it.
10987  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 03, 2007, 01:40:30 pm
too bad kerry healey doesnt reside in the district.  she could have won this race!

Please, she's the most hated woman in the Commonwealth.  She let a bunch of idiots run her campaign in 2006 and her reputation is permanently ruined for it.

the bottom line is that tsongas is a pretty lousy candidate.

she isnt very articulate.  and it is painfully obvious she is trying to get by on her late husband's name.

You know, ever since I saw Verily post about the fallacy of Romney's strength in Michigan, I've been thinking much the same could apply here to MA-05 and the Tsongas name.  It won the Primary for her, sure, but not by a huge amount—she kinda limped to the finish line.

After all, Paul Tsongas hasn't won office in 29 years; hasn't served in office in 23 years; and hasn't been on the ballot in 15 years.
10988  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MS: Eaves Ad - "Come Clean" on: October 03, 2007, 12:02:26 am
Is Eaves doing any polling? How come he's run so many TV ads and raised so little money? Is TV time dirt cheap in MS?

How could it possibly be expensive there?
10989  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Christian Conservatives Mull Going Third Party if Giuliani is Nominated on: October 02, 2007, 11:57:54 pm
They're talking about running Alan Keyes.  How serious can they be if they're considering Alan Keyes?
10990  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: If Rudy had an Atlas account... on: October 02, 2007, 11:56:48 pm
Ah, the whole thing is just an intentional leak.  Pay it no mind.
10991  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 02, 2007, 11:29:31 pm
Cook was lazy for putting it in Solid Dem anyway after the primary.  Should have been Likely Dem.  Then again, he's always kind of lazy.

When exactly is this election anyway?  I haven't been following it that closely.

October 16.
10992  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: If Rudy had an Atlas account... on: October 02, 2007, 11:27:17 pm
Rudy Giuliani wishes he was doing that well. It's likely he wouldn't even be the Republicans nominee in 2008, even if he was, he still wouldn't even get 218 Electoral votes because the fundie wing of the GOP would run a third party. I used to like Rudy Giuliani, now he's a joke candidate. Probably even moreso than Atlasia's own gporter!

(1) Rudy is still the most likely Republican nominee at this point, especially considering 2008 is a huge leap toward a "national" primary.
(2) No, the fundie wing won't be able to run a "third party."  Like Gary Bauer says, the threat of Hillary Clinton is greater than the threat of Rudy Giuliani.
(3) Rudy Giuliani is in no way a joke candidate.
10993  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: October 02, 2007, 11:04:06 pm
Richardson looks like a good buy. I'm predicting that he, along with Thompson and Paul on the other side, will start to skyrocket this month.

Richardson is a terrible buy, really, because he's a terrible candidate.  And that's from someone who's currently long 25 shares of Richardson.

I have no clue why Paul would "skyrocket" when he's going nowhere in the polls with a 0% chance to win the GOP nomination.
10994  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who is dumber on Tradesports? on: October 02, 2007, 11:02:03 pm
Gore is going to 0 before Paul is going to 0.

Besides, Paul has a greater chance of moving higher from here because of the "crazies."  You could still make money on that (though I wouldn't risk it—it's like trying to make money on the Alpaca market before that crashes).
10995  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Quinnipiac NJ-Sen: Lautenberg (D) 39%, Generic Republican (R) 36% on: October 02, 2007, 10:57:19 pm
New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.
I think Kean Jr. showed us last year that that name isnt really going to help them compete in fundraising.  Those Kean family connections were quite unimpressive.

Kean wasn't able to outraise Menendez, but he was indeed able to raise enough money to "compete."

Bramnick and Pennacchio look like they'd struggle to hit $5 million total (and would probably be lucky to get to $3 million).
10996  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: ATTN: MAS and Rockefeller Republican on: October 02, 2007, 10:46:09 pm
What the hell does this even mean? This makes no sense.

i) A successful vote of two thirds of voting (either in the affirmative or in the negative) members Legislative Assembly of the Northeast Region.

ii) A successful vote of majority of all members of the Legislative Assembly, voting, abstaining and absent members combined.

You wrote that there has to be a successful vote of 2/3 of the members, but then it has be a successful vote of the majority of members? What the hell?

Part (i) says that 2/3 of those who cast a ballot must cast an aye vote for the amendment to pass.

Part (ii) says that 1/2 of those who are registered voters in the Northeast must vote aye for the amendment to pass, as "absent members" seems to reference those who may vote but otherwise do not.

Absent members refers to people who don't vote at all.

Which is exactly what I said.  Smiley
10997  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report notes GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 02, 2007, 10:06:59 pm
If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

Quite a delicious irony for Republicans. Why do you think Tsongas can't pivot leftward on the War? She has no voting record or past statements on the issue, right?

Her opinion on the issue was thoroughly documented in the Democratic Primary, which was assumed to be the only election that mattered in MA-05.  If she "pivoted left," she'd get hammered for "flip-flopping."
10998  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Quinnipiac NJ-Sen: Lautenberg (D) 39%, Generic Republican (R) 36% on: October 02, 2007, 09:14:11 pm
New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.
10999  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report notes GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 02, 2007, 09:00:28 pm
If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.
11000  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End of the Budget Amendment on: October 02, 2007, 08:37:54 pm
Aye.
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