Jennings got robbed in 2006.

We'll see what happens in 2008. Could go either way.

Jennings will get slaughtered.  It's a Republican district, and she's done little since the election but alienate voters.

Not that Republican.  Republicans think they can win back districts like KY-03, CT-02, CT-05, NH-02, IA-02, PA-07, and PA-08 that are as Democratic or even more so than FL-13 is Republican.

In this case, there's nothing to "win back."  This district has always been Republican in modern history.

It's a terrible position to be in. She obviously won, but now she just looks like a schmuck. She won't win in 2008 probably.

Obviously?

I think once the war on terror is defeated, these centrist dems will be more happy to vote more traditional.

Are you kidding?  If the GOP has trended towards the right in recent years, then Democrats have definitely trended towards the left.  The Democratic Party as a whole is simply not tolerant of southern culture, and that's why the southern cuture isn't very tolerant of the Democratic Party anymore.

Just like New England won't swing back towards Republicans post-war, neither will the south swing back towards Democrats.

Jennings got robbed in 2006.

We'll see what happens in 2008. Could go either way.

Jennings will get slaughtered.  It's a Republican district, and she's done little since the election but alienate voters.

Considering that Thompson is very ideologically similar to Bush, completely supports Bush's policies and has closely aligned himself with and defended Bush, do you really think he can distance himself from Bush in the general? And if he can't, then do you really believe a candidate seen as closely tied to Bush can win?

Bush will be hung around the neck of who ever gets the nod from the GOP. Rudy = Bush with some social liberal views, Mitt = Bush+Mormon+flip flopper, Thompson = Bush+lobbyist+Hollywood+very little experience. Any of them will face an up hill battle against the legacy Bush leaves them (except, of course, with the limited number of folks that still love Bush - I think 25% of them post on this board).

Rudy = Bush will be a tough sell, I think.  People have already seen quite a bit of his capabilities through his 9/11 leadership, and will certainly know by November 2008 that he's not a reactionary social conservative.

With Nancy Pelose next in line, President Cheney's first item of business would be to nominate a Vice President.

Cheney nominates William Cohen, Republican of Maine, member of House of Representatives 1973-79, U.S. Senator 1979-97, Secretary of Defense in Bill Clinton administration 1997-2001.

Cohen was popular and respected in his public career.

Cohen is experienced and capable.  There would be no Republican Senate vacancy created.  He would be capable of assuming the Presidency on a caretaker basis if this became necessary, and he would win almost instant and unanimous confirmation.

Cohen also endorsed John Kerry in 2004.  Try again.

Sheehan should seek a different House seat, one that is currently held by a Republican.

Call me a traditionalist, but I think people should only run in the districts in which they, you know, live.

Absolutely unrealistic best-case scenario for the Republicans would be gaining one seat, making it 50-48-2, for a Republican "majority" if they retain the White House. 

The only possible way that happens is an implosion of the Democratic presidential campaign, though...and even then, the Republicans would have to get lucky.

My money's on D+3 (CO, NH, and let's say OR).

You could do better than that for an unrealistic best case scenario.

After all, we don't know all the retirements yet.  Only one has been announced, and I'd bet there will be more.  I mean, what happens when Joe Biden is named to be the Democratic nominee for President, huh?  Boy, will there be egg on your face!

I'm not sure what's so FF-y about someone who releases phone records out of a desire for revenge over her own criminal prosecution.

Maybe it makes a larger point about the non-necessity of anti-prostitution laws.

I agree that releasing the phone records was a breach of privacy, and I don't condone it, although I certainly enjoy the side effect of sanctimonious conservatives being brought down for hypocrisy.

Just because someone's making a point doesn't make them a "Freedom Fighter."  Personally, I think we need street prostitution laws, because its a significant quality of life issue.

Not that she's really doing this to make some kind of point.  She's just pissed off.

He wouldnt have won even if he had the same amount of money or a few hundred thousand more.

I'm not saying he would have, for the record.

And I'll go on the record saying he probably would have with another $10k invested in GOTV.  Razor thin.

The one good thing about Garrett is that he's unflinchingly fiscally conservative in the Ron Paul sense: vehemently opposed to pork.  Good for him.

Wow, the Republicans are getting their asses kicked for money raised.

Of course, Hillary, Obama, Edwards, et al. will be blowing virtually every cent of their wads before February comes to a close.

Seems kind of odd to suggest that Giuliani, Romney et al. won't be doing so, especially since the Republicans have had a higher rate of "burn" for the first two quarters (though admittedly this is mostly caused by Romney's cash blitzes).

I'm going to optimistically say Obama.

I wasn't suggesting otherwise, just that all candidates will be on a level playing field once their respective primaries are done.

Well I think it will be sad for the Democratic Party.  However, for some time it has appeared that Mississippi is becoming more Republican at the local level like most Southern states.  This could, however, be a relatively short-term trend - since according to demographic trends, the state will be majority black by the 2044 Presidential election or something like that? 

(1) Turnout of African Americans is far lower than that of their white counterparts.
(2) In most areas of the deep south, whites vote as monolithically Republican (federally) as blacks vote monolithically Democratic.

Even if the state becomes majority black, Republicans will still dominate.

I acknowledge that.  However, if Barack Obama was the Democratic candidate in 2008 I predict we could see Mississippi's black turnout significantly rise (as it would nationally).  Obama could perhaps get 43%-44% in Mississippi. 

Bush did pretty good in Connecticut and New Jersey in 2004, but a lot of good it did Republicans there.

Well I think it will be sad for the Democratic Party.  However, for some time it has appeared that Mississippi is becoming more Republican at the local level like most Southern states.  This could, however, be a relatively short-term trend - since according to demographic trends, the state will be majority black by the 2044 Presidential election or something like that? 

(1) Turnout of African Americans is far lower than that of their white counterparts.
(2) In most areas of the deep south, whites vote as monolithically Republican (federally) as blacks vote monolithically Democratic.

Even if the state becomes majority black, Republicans will still dominate.

Furthermore, why the bloody hell does the Capitol building not have metal detectors? What do they think it is, a Burger King?

From my past experience, the New Jersey State Legislature does not have a metal detector; the Massachusetts State Legislature does.

Sex sells (news wise). 

Because Larry Flynt is, first and foremost, a news man.

I'm not sure what's so FF-y about someone who releases phone records out of a desire for revenge over her own criminal prosecution.

Carolyn Mahoney didn't know crap about politics either.

The situations aren't exactly analgous, but people are still suckers for a compelling sob story.

2012 will be more about redistricting than anything else, which puts a very high premium on the outcome of the 2010 races.

Especially Governors races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and California, which could decide as many as 10–15 seats alone.

Democrats will get some seats they should have in 2006. (I'm looking at you Heather Wilson).

And Republicans will get some seats that never should have gone Democratic in the first place.  (I'm looking at you, Nick Lampson.)

Largely a wash.

Now how are they going to be during this time period? The first two no doubt will jittery and strung out to the point where they probably can't even function normally, while the last one will get along fine, the worst thing being having to eat food they may not be all that fond of. They certainly aren't going to act like a junkie of any type. That's not addiction.

Ever see the movie 'Supersize Me'?

the only safe amount of synthetically created trans fat consumption is zero.

I was talking specifically about a hamburger, which has somewhere around 1 gram of trans fat.

The effect of that one gram of transfat on a human's lifespan is essentially negligable.

Can't they do some different states? It's the same 16 states as last month.

It's the only 16 states they're being paid to do polling in.  If you want the other 34, cut them a check.

[Length of play.]

Okay, so, taking into consideration that the game would run best as a everyone-for-themselves type contest, here are the proposed rules.

FIRST ANNUAL WORLD SERIES OF ELECTORAL KNOWLEDGE
( 1 ) Length of play.  Gameplay will consist of eight rounds in total, with the maximum length of each round being one week.  Gameplay may be moved along at a faster pace if all contestants finish a round before the one week deadline.
( 2 ) Start of play.  Gameplay will begin Monday, July 23, 2007.
( 3 ) Rounds 1 through 3.
( 3 ) ( a ) Each of the first three rounds will have their own unifying subject, i.e., "Governors," "The Election of 1976," "Races Myrth York Lost," etc.
( 3 ) ( b ) Each of these rounds will have five questions, with point values of 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500.  Easier questions will be assigned lower point values; harder (more obscure?) questions will be assigned higher point values.
( 3 ) ( c ) During each round, each contestant will contact me to choose one of the five questions to answer, knowing only the category and relative difficulty of each question.  The question will be given in real time (via instant messenger?) and the contestant will have 15 seconds to respond with an answer.  If the answer is correct, the point value of the question will be added to their score.  If they answer incorrectly, the point value of the question will be deducted from their score.  If they choose not to answer or "pass," no points will be deducted from their score.
( 3 ) ( d ) The contestant will then choose two more questions in the same category, with play continuing as in (c).
( 4 ) Round 4.
( 4 ) ( a ) In Round 4, Contestants will be given a choice between two categories, each with a single question.  This question will have at least five correct answers. [i.e., "There were at least 16 candidates who sought the Presidency of the United States in 2004 by making it on to at least one statewide ballot.  Name them."]
( 4 ) ( b ) Contestants will then have to name at least one correct answer every 15 seconds.  Correct answers will be worth 200 points each; no points will be deducted for an incorrect answer, but the first one given will end the round for that contestant.
( 5 ) Rounds 5 through 7.  Rounds five through seven will proceed just as rounds one through three, but the point values of each question will be increased to 200, 400, 600, 800, and 1000, respectively.
( 6 ) Round 8.  Round 8 will proceed as Round 4.  This time, however, the question will have at least 10 correct answers; each correct answer will be worth 500 points.
( 7 ) Bonus Points.  In any round, if a correct answer is given by only one player, the point value for that particular answer will be doubled.  (These points will be awarded regardless of how many players attempted said question.)
( 8 ) Tiebreaker.  If necessary, a ninth round, similar to the eighth, will be played between any players tied after the final week of play.
( 9 ) Intermission.  Questions, their correct answers, and a running score tally will be given here at the conclusion of each round.
( 10 ) Late entry.  Contestants can join in the game at any time during its run, but no credit will be given for missed weeks.  Similarly, contestants can continue play after missing a round of questions, but no credit nor make-up questions will be given.
( 11 ) Cheating.   Though the game has been designed to eliminate the value of cheating as much as possible, contestants agree that they will not use outside sources—Google, the Election Atlas, other contestants, etc.—to research the answers to a given question.  Any contestant found to be cheating will be eliminated from gameplay.
( 12 ) Contestant requirements.  For my own sanity, no one who has been banned from the Election Atlas Forum shall be allowed to participate.
( 13 ) Pity Clause.  Because negative numbers all look sad and pathetic and stuff, all contestants will be given 1,000 points to start.  If a contestant still winds up in the negatives, all indebted points must be repaid through hard labor in the salt mines.

Who of the two is the least batsh**t wing of a nut?

Dave

Quite frankly, Broun.  But he's more independent than a Whitehead vote would be.

I had always thought Whitehead to be the most "mainstream" of the two, but in this CD, it's like the difference between "eggshell" and "off-white."

Not much change in the results since last night, BTW—one extra precinct reported in, leaving just seven outstanding.  I'm not even sure there will be a total of 374 votes in those seven, so the results should stand.

GEORGIA 10 - SPECIAL ELECTION
318 of 325 Reporting (97.8%)

PAUL BROUN (R) - 23,473 (50.40%)
JIM WHITEHEAD (R) - 23,100 (49.60%)

Wow, the Republicans are getting their asses kicked for money raised.

Of course, Hillary, Obama, Edwards, et al. will be blowing virtually every cent of their wads before February comes to a close.

Looks like there will be an automatic recount.  If Broun does manage to hold I, expect he'll get bounced from office in 2008.  I doubt he can win a straight up GOP primary, and if he does, a Democrat might just pick up the seat.  Broun's getting a lot of his votes from non-Republicans solely because he's not Whitehead.

No Democrat's winning that seat.

What he said.