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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win? on: February 07, 2016, 07:42:52 pm
I can't understand how anyone believes Sanders could win OK. OK Democrats are still very conservative, over 40% showed up to vote against Obama in 2012. No way does Sanders beat Clinton there.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Is the MA primary a lock for Hillary? on: February 06, 2016, 12:47:51 pm
Last time around she beat Obama by almost 20 points. But BS is a senator from a neighboring state, a fellow new englander. He should probably do better with working class whites than Obama, but Clinton has the African Americans this cycle. Is the state a lock for Hillary or not?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: White supremacists helping Trump in New Hampshire on: February 05, 2016, 05:15:43 pm
It's New Hampshire, I'm not surprised.

Yeah the state is lilly-white, but are you implying New Hampshirites are racist?

Boston is very racist, and Boston metro extends into southern NH.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Boston/Globe Suffolk University Poll on: February 05, 2016, 02:15:40 pm
With how much Kasich and Jeb hate Trump, you'd think they'd want to drop out and endorse Rubio, which is the only way to stop him in NH. Ironically, it's probably the two guys who tried the hardest to stop him that will end up giving him the nomination.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders RUSHES to help man who fainted at his press conference! on: February 04, 2016, 12:44:34 pm
If Hillary had done the same thing, everyone calling Sanders a FF would be saying it was staged.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you favor a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? on: February 03, 2016, 04:45:22 pm
Only Israel should exist. Other Arab countries should be forced to take in the refugees.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Name one bad thing about Bernie Sanders. on: February 02, 2016, 05:21:34 pm
He's a SJW, and a clueless idealist.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Name one good thing about Donald Trump on: February 02, 2016, 05:19:28 pm
He has destroyed neo-conservatism.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Name one good thing about Ted Cruz on: February 02, 2016, 05:18:37 pm
He's reasonably principled.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O_________________O on: February 02, 2016, 04:52:03 pm
Top comments include:

"Our country will be respected again if Trump becomes president."

"I would like for this to be the truth, but lets be serious - the Nobel Committee, the leftwing dogs that they are, are more likely to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi."

"IOWA explained in one sentence.. THERE AREN'T MANY MEXICANS THERE! Once they infest and destroy everything in Iowa.. they'll wake up"

Then why does NH like the Trump/Buchanan types?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: AP/Sanders campaign: "We won't ask for a recount." on: February 02, 2016, 02:09:25 pm
First sign of decency from Sanders the entire cycle.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 12:14:02 am
Going to have to count on the African American community to destroy this menace to American society. Hope the south is as solid for Hillary as the polling looks.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of Georgy Zhukov on: February 01, 2016, 11:47:25 am
On one hand, the Soviet military committed many horrific crimes. On the other, Zhukov is probably responsible for saving eastern Europe from permanent occupation of the genocidal Nazis.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Which would be more entertaining? on: January 30, 2016, 02:28:15 pm
I think Trump vs Clinton would be more amusing, though Trump vs Sanders maybe a bit more interesting.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close? on: January 29, 2016, 03:11:22 pm
I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....

I think Trump has a much better chance at CO & NV than VA.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close? on: January 29, 2016, 02:40:47 pm
I predict 54-45 Trump over Clinton, but he'll get a Reagan 84 margin against Sanders.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Bernie campaign for Hillary after she's nominated? on: January 29, 2016, 01:44:16 am
She's not gonna be the nominee. She's gonn be either on trial or dealing with her health issues.

Just like she wouldn't run, right?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will Hillary do in the next 4-5 days ... on: January 28, 2016, 02:55:27 am
Bernie supporters are the most hateful, tasteless group imaginable.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would beat Sanders in the general election? on: January 25, 2016, 05:59:39 pm
Pretty much anyone would beat him. He has zero charisma and no fully formed ideas.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will the Trumpster do among Hispanics? on: January 24, 2016, 09:42:41 pm
Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Okay, can you explain to me why this would happen?

I've already explained. but let me repeat.

1) Romney's self-deportation is same as TRUMP's deportation. No essential difference. Possibly, TRUMP's deportation will be more acceptable once he explains it in the GE. So, no loss for TRUMP.
2) Romney as the vulture capitalist was hated by hispanic working class. TRUMP will talk about many hispanic jobs he has created and how his policies will benefit hispanic workin gclass. Gain for TRUMP.
3) Obama was beloved by hispanics. Hillary is too, but to a lesser extent. Small gain for TRUMP.


Hillary won Hispanics in the 2008 primaries. She won at least three states (CA, AZ, NM) while losing the white vote to Obama.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rate Arizona in a Clinton vs. Trump election on: January 24, 2016, 02:30:40 pm
Safe Trump. If the 2010 immigration law and Obama's reaction was enough to swing whites heavily towards Romney in 2012, just imagine how much of  swing Trump will get among them with his promise of a wall and deportations. Trump will probably get 70% of the white male vote.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Sanders: Who wins PA? on: January 24, 2016, 12:08:11 pm
It's not that he's far right, it's that he has no political experience, and the Democratic establishment would be more comfortable with Sanders than the Republican establishment would be with Trump. Also, Trump alienates minorities, who aren't exactly a small group. You could argue that Sanders would cause low turnout among minorities, but the only way for him to win the nomination is by winning a decent number of them.

Trump is great at appealing to a certain subset of the GOP, but I have yet to see any evidence that he has any appeal beyond that, aside from people who will begrudgingly vote for whomever the GOP nominates.

Since you seem to believe everything that GE polls say, then maybe I can use the "Sanders is leading all the GE polls" argument?
According to both CNN and FOX he's already at 47%, and he leads comfortably in FL & CO general election polls.

No. Sanders has not yet been scrutinized by the media or seriously attacked by his opponents. Both Trump and Hillary have already gone through that in spades.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Sanders: Who wins PA? on: January 23, 2016, 05:29:48 pm
It's not that he's far right, it's that he has no political experience, and the Democratic establishment would be more comfortable with Sanders than the Republican establishment would be with Trump. Also, Trump alienates minorities, who aren't exactly a small group. You could argue that Sanders would cause low turnout among minorities, but the only way for him to win the nomination is by winning a decent number of them.

Trump is great at appealing to a certain subset of the GOP, but I have yet to see any evidence that he has any appeal beyond that, aside from people who will begrudgingly vote for whomever the GOP nominates.

According to both CNN and FOX he's already at 47%, and he leads comfortably in FL & CO general election polls.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Sanders: Who wins PA? on: January 23, 2016, 05:28:17 pm
Trump is far less of an ideological extremist than Sanders. Anyone who seriously believes Sanders has more appeal to swing voters than Trump is delusional.

Apologies if I get too hackish, but Trump isn't a moderate if he focuses only on his policies that are farthest to the right (foreign policy, immigration).

Trump is hardly on the far right when it comes to foreign policy. Other than the irrelevant Rand Paul, he is the only GOP candidate who isn't a neocon.

Fair enough, but still. He focuses on "BUILD THE WALL", "BAN ALL MUSLIMS", and "SHUT DOWN THE INTERNET". There is no way that is electable.

Most Americans support building a wall to secure the border. His "deport everybody" position might hurt him, but I think there's a strong chance he'll moderate on that after the primaries. His numbers went up after the Muslim comments, and there were polls showing that even 40% of Democrats supported the Muslim ban (when Trump's name wasn't mentioned in the question, when it was support fell to around 25%).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Sanders: Who wins PA? on: January 23, 2016, 05:14:46 pm
Trump is far less of an ideological extremist than Sanders. Anyone who seriously believes Sanders has more appeal to swing voters than Trump is delusional.

Apologies if I get too hackish, but Trump isn't a moderate if he focuses only on his policies that are farthest to the right (foreign policy, immigration).

Trump is hardly on the far right when it comes to foreign policy. Other than the irrelevant Rand Paul, he is the only GOP candidate who isn't a neocon.
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