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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will you vote for in 2016?
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on: May 12, 2013, 10:09:16 pm
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Cuomo isn't on the record for advocating anything that would be contentious in a Democratic primary like Schweitzer and gun control. He's continuously toed the line in his governance as a Clinton-esque centrist, but he wouldn't campaign on anything fiscally conservative. The left would be right to point to his record, but that's nowhere near the same problem as running for the nomination as, say, Huntman's views on climate change or Brian Sandoval and abortion.
Cuomo is just going to try and paint himself as Slick Willy's protege.
Why should Democrats support that approach when Slick Willy's wife, a true blue liberal, is available and by far more electable?
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama's white vote percentage by state.
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on: November 14, 2012, 10:38:28 am
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Obama had to have gotten 50% in WA, OR, & probably MN, IA & WI. Also, how the F could Obama get below 20% in OK when he got over 30% of the vote? Absurd.
Black, Latino, and American Indian voters. President Obama probably got a 70%+ share of American Indian vote nationwide, but nothing like that in Oklahoma. American Indians are more assimilated politically and economically in Oklahoma than in Arizona or South Dakota. They are a large part of the electorate in Oklahoma. But in the last couple of elections, if you trust CNN exit polls at all, Kerry & Obama were getting above 25% with both male and female whites in OK. Obama's share of the vote declined 1%, so I don't think he got below 20% of whites this time. I just don't trust these numbers.
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama will get 303 electoral votes
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on: November 03, 2012, 10:48:46 am
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Don't have it backwards, sorry. Out of the swing states, Romney will win: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado
If Obama wins the rest of the swing states: New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin that will put him at 281 EVs
If Romney also picks up New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (not likely), he would have 315 EVs.
If Obama wins, he won't have more than 281 EVs. If he does win, more likely 271 or 277 EVs.
Romney has a better chance at a higher ceiling than Obama. If PA breaks for Romney, we then probably would also win some of the other "Obama" states he carried in 2008.
Excuse me, when did CO & VA become locks for Romney? That's right, never.
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