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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: The Case for Mitt `16 on: July 03, 2014, 12:06:31 pm
Romney cannot beat Hillary. If Hillary doesn't run, any GOP candidate sans Cruz would win.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does a Hillary coalition look like? on: July 02, 2014, 09:15:53 pm


Is this your clever way of saying "Hillary voters are gay"?
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine or Warner as VP? on: July 02, 2014, 05:01:12 pm
You can't underestimate not having to worry about VA though. The VP pick has to come from a swing state this time.
54  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush approval rating: January 2009 on: July 02, 2014, 04:59:21 pm
Was privatized SS ever popular? I believe it's one of the things that destroyed Goldwater in 64.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Dukakis have such a huge lead in the 1988 Election? on: July 02, 2014, 04:56:47 pm
Media executives were much more conservative than journalists. They decide what stories get covered.

That's possible, but many stories emphasized by the media are not favorable to conservatives. Just look at the media's justified criticism of Romney's 47% remarks.

It wasn't necessarily justified. He said it was his job not to "care" about 47% of the population, referring to trying to get their votes in the election, and everyone made it out that he was talking about how he would govern them.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carly Fiorina on: July 02, 2014, 04:13:08 pm
If it means we get more demon sheep ads, hell yes!
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does a Hillary coalition look like? on: July 02, 2014, 03:02:17 pm
Hillary needs to cash in on the IOU that Bill got for her at the DNC, and have Obama campaign hard for her with the AA community.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does a Hillary coalition look like? on: July 02, 2014, 02:51:23 pm
There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.
59  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Fox News's Megyn Kelly on: July 02, 2014, 02:21:07 pm
I like her, but she's not the best on FOX.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does a Hillary coalition look like? on: July 02, 2014, 02:18:54 pm
Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul by double digits on: July 02, 2014, 11:54:20 am
You can say it's early, but Dems almost always poll between 40-45% in MI until the summer of the election year. For Hillary to have these numbers is definitely a good sign for 2016.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Sen: Grimes vs. McConnell: Who wins? on: July 01, 2014, 10:22:30 pm
KY, like OK, has a large number of fake Dems, about 20%, who don't vote Democratic 99% of the time. Maybe they think it's fine for a Democrat to be Governor from time to time but nothing beyond that apparently. They tease Democrats in the polls but Grimes ceiling is 48-49%, and I don't even think that's happening. McConnell will get 50% or more.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Iowa Dems consider expanding access to caucuses on: July 01, 2014, 08:59:08 pm
Good. No more thievery from the radicals.
64  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you prefer to have won? on: July 01, 2014, 09:19:25 am
Romney in 2012. Would have been beneficial to both the Democratic party and Hillary.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Why did TN swing to Bush in 88? on: June 30, 2014, 06:55:45 pm
The only thing I can think of, is that the economy was poor in TN and Mondale played well with working class voters, and Dukakis turned some of them off with his social liberalism.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Rand play in FL? on: June 30, 2014, 06:52:17 pm
Romney still got 58% of seniors. Rand should do better with younger voters than Romney, so maybe that would make up any loss.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How would Rand play in FL? on: June 30, 2014, 06:37:49 pm
FL seems more like a Christie or even Walker kind of state. How would a Libertarian candidate play there?
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT: How Hillary Clinton Is Like John McCain on: June 30, 2014, 04:18:38 pm
I will campaign door to door for the GOP nominee if Hillary is pushed out by the radicals again.
69  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of Casper (not the city) on: June 30, 2014, 03:44:59 pm
How do you feel about the character in general?
70  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who was the best President, of these three? on: June 29, 2014, 08:22:33 pm
Bush 41. Reagan was a charlatan and Bush 43 was insane.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: I really wonder if Mondale actually carried Minnesota on: June 29, 2014, 03:22:09 pm
Another poster on this forum noted a while back that it was odd that NH & GA were called immediately in 1992 even though they were both extremely close.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could LA be competitive in 2016? on: June 28, 2014, 11:23:45 pm
No

Nick Corasaniti:

Quote
[...]

But while Louisiana votes consistently with the Deep South, its conservative engine is made up of slightly different parts, some of which, when viewed in isolation, falsely appears to make Louisiana more pink, or purple, than red.

Of the roughly 2.9 million registered voters in the state, 1.4 million are registered as Democrats, while about 789,000 are registered Republicans and another 694,000 registered as “other.” Even if every “other” voter sided with the Republicans, it would appear that Louisiana is a hotly contested state. So how is every major state office held by a Republican?

The answer to the deceptive voter registration numbers lie, in part, with Louisiana’s unique “jungle primary” system used in local, state and congressional elections, but not presidential elections. As in the presidential electoral system in France, all candidates for an office in Louisiana run at once without a separate party-specific primary. If any one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the election is over. If not, the top two face off in a runoff election a month later. Voters are not required to register with a party to participate in these elections, removing a main incentive for registering with either the Democrat or Republican parties.

“The minimal effort it takes to register with a party just isn’t worth it in Louisiana,” Mr. Parent said. “And a lot of older voters who once registered as Democrats, and I’m talking those 50 and over, now vote nearly exclusively Republican.”

[...]

Electoral system aside, Louisiana became a Republican stronghold because of one main demographic that has shifted through the years: the Catholic vote.

Louisiana has a large Catholic population, setting it apart from its Gulf Coast neighbors. In the 2012 Republican primary, Catholics made up 36 percent of the voters in the primaries. While Catholics weren’t tallied in Mississippi or Alabama exit polls in 2012, they accounted for only 8 percent in Mississippi and 5 percent in Alabama in 2008.

The Catholic vote is strongest in the predominantly Cajun southwestern part of the state known as Acadiana. Catholic voters once made up a large part of the “swing” vote in Louisiana, before social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage became part of the political conversation. In 1992, 41 percent of all voters in the state identified themselves as Catholics, and 47 percent of Catholics voted for Bill Clinton. By 2008, the vote had switched, with 70 percent of Catholics voting for Mr. McCain.

“Cajun Catholics are no longer moderately swing votes at all,” Mr. Parent said. “They are becoming as reliably Republican as Southern Baptists.”

[...]

Thank you. Guess that's that.
73  General Politics / Individual Politics / Who would you prefer have won: Mondale or Dukakis? on: June 28, 2014, 09:12:26 pm
Even if you like neither, let's say you were forced to pick. Would you prefer Mondale have won in 84 or Dukakis in 88?
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stronger Dem GE Candidate Clinton or Gillibrand? on: June 28, 2014, 05:12:48 pm
Seniors are her worst group in every poll.

I wasn't clear. Any Democratic nominee will poll weaker with seniors and Southerners than nons. I meant to say Hillary is far less weak in those groups than other Democrats are.

On second thought, I think she often or usually does worse with the middle aged than with seniors.

In virtually every PPP crosstab, her lowest % is with those over 65.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: I really wonder if Mondale actually carried Minnesota on: June 28, 2014, 03:14:32 pm
Given that it was his single state of the '84 election and given how tight it was (4K votes), I really wonder.  There was a youtube up with some brief NBC coverage.  When Brokaw announced that they were projecting MN for the Democrat, you could see his smile of Glee and there were claps and cheers audible in the background.

If I'm not mistaken, ABC actually called the state soon after 9pm when the polls closed, but for CBS and NBC, it was the final state called that night.

Because he was happy about winning his home state?

I think he was referring to Brokaw.  His theory seems to be that the "liberal media" rigged MN so Reagan would be denied a 50 state landslide.

On another note, Mondale's performance was absolutely pathetic everywhere. I don't care if things were less polarized back then, there was no excuse for losing MA & RI.
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