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July 06, 2015, 09:34:00 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In hindsight on: July 02, 2015, 01:38:23 pm
Will you at least admit that the premise by which you started this thread is incorrect?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the big policy differences between Hillary, Sanders, O'Malley, Chafee? on: July 02, 2015, 01:29:38 pm
Chafee seems to the right of Hillary on fiscal policy. He supported CAFTA; Hillary opposed. He supported a business-written bill against class action lawsuits; Hillary opposed. On the other hand he's actually to Sanders' left on gun control.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge? on: July 02, 2015, 12:40:16 pm
Going negative is fine if the negative things you are saying are true. Sanders doesn't really have any negatives from a Democratic perspective though.

Everyone has negatives. Bernie has taken some pretty extreme positions on gun control, voting against the Brady Bill in 1993 and voting to support gun manufacturers' special immunity from lawsuits. He also voted against immigration reform in 2007. He's never represented a diverse constituency, and he'll be 75 years old in 2016. Then there's the fact that he's never led in a national poll.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10% on: July 02, 2015, 09:33:44 am
Obama never had this much non-primary generated momentum against Hillary. Never. A 26-point swing in 1 month. Because Obama never had much daylight between him and Hillary in terms of their positions. That primary came down to demographics because there was little else to talk about.

Bernie is different because he voted against the Patriot Act, wants to break up the banks, is against the TPP, and so on. All of these positions have become conventional orthodoxy within the Democratic base. So he's actually a stronger candidate against Clinton than Obama was because there's a clearer rationale for his anti-Clinton crusade.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge? on: July 02, 2015, 08:53:23 am
Move to the left, continue to stress the historic nature of having the first ever female president and argue on electability. She should definitely NOT go negative however, that will only make her look like a sore loser and will have a much more negative impact on her than on Sanders. It will also make the eventual nominee weaker as a result.

People always say you shouldn't go negative. No one likes the idea of "going negative" in the abstract. Just like no one likes raising taxes. But it works. The best moment of her 2008 campaign, besides pulling out New Hampshire, was arguably her Mark Penn-inspired 3 AM ad. Bernie doesn't have to go negative on her because there are already lots of people doing it (including his own supporters). But no one is going negative on Bernie, so she's going to have to do it, even though the blowback will be huge.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10% on: July 02, 2015, 08:49:21 am
I think that's quite absurd. If Sanders wins Iowa and leads in New Hampshire, then he becomes the front-runner, let alone a serious threat. I would say he's already a serious threat to her.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP (MI)- Clinton leads all candidates on: July 02, 2015, 08:44:02 am
Sanders loses the state 35 - 39. His favorabilities among African Americans are brutal.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge? on: July 02, 2015, 08:38:47 am
With the latest poll out of Iowa, Bernie is starting to do very well. It's possible that he could pull out both Iowa and New Hampshire. At that point, a less-than-stellar performance by Hillary in South Carolina could doom her. Jesse Jackson also won South Carolina in 1988 but that didn't get him the nomination. And blacks won't be as solid for her as they were for Jackson or Obama. Is there any way her multi-million dollar campaign can be saved?
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What 21st Century Films Will Be Remembered The Best? on: July 01, 2015, 03:52:54 pm
I don't mean to be a prick,

Yes you do.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Dammit, why can't I hate pop stars now like I did in high school? on: July 01, 2015, 03:49:25 pm
The music industry is (1) extremely hard to succeed in, and (2) rewards crappy music. The result is, sometimes you get legitimately cool/talented people making sh**t music.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The so-called "Demise" of the Republican Party is way overblown on: July 01, 2015, 03:45:02 pm
Democrats are going to have the Millennial politicians who learned their political techniques from Barack Obama. That's a very good model.

Millennial adults will likely vote for Millennial politicians at the expense of Tea Party types. Such will be big trouble for the GOP.

The problem is the Democrats seem like a party of geriatrics - Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jim Webb, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Dick Durbin, Chuck Schumer, Steny Hoyer, etc. etc. etc. Not a single real leader under 50, not many under 60 either. They do a terrible, terrible job at supporting young talent.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: June 29, 2015, 05:17:37 pm
Hillary wins big.
13  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Erasing the Confederacy -How Far Would you Go? on: June 29, 2015, 04:53:25 pm
It's amazing how much the debate over the Confederate flag has changed. Back in 2001-2003 I remember the Democratic Governor of Georgia tried to change the flag, and it caused such a huge stink it cost the Democrats the Governorship. The new flag was tossed out and replaced with a GOP alternative. The flag change proponents were incompetent too, because the replacement they proposed was aesthetically terrible and roundly criticized. Now it's like night and day.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of The Guardian on: June 29, 2015, 04:47:46 pm
The comment section has been fairly disheartening (no surprise).
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Univision dumps Miss USA pageant over Trump remarks; Trumps says he'll sue on: June 29, 2015, 02:41:38 pm
Well, I feel a bit bad for the contestants, as I am sure some of them are fine individuals, but I guess that's what happens when Donald Trump is in control of things.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mississippi not taking gay marriage ruling well on: June 29, 2015, 12:45:04 pm
Congrats, Harry.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / In U.S., Socialist Presidential Candidates Least Appealing on: June 29, 2015, 10:22:58 am
Per Gallup

50% would not vote for "a socialist" even if their party nominated a "well-qualified" candidate for the presidency. Only 59% of Democrats say yes.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Have you ever seen people rowing in the street about money? on: June 28, 2015, 04:09:51 pm
Ah. Given that this is an Al post, the interpretation comes as no surprise, but I think when people argue nastily over small amounts of money it's because they perceive their honor is at stake.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 28, 2015, 04:05:12 pm
It's funny how much the debate over capital controls has shifted in the past 20 years.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Have you ever seen people rowing in the street about money? on: June 28, 2015, 04:01:51 pm
What did Paul say about it?
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Obama be remembered in the top 10 of Presidents? on: June 28, 2015, 03:38:10 pm
Too soon to tell. He's still got 18 months left.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Describe the Ideology of Chief Justice John Roberts on: June 28, 2015, 12:43:59 am
He's a solid conservative... just because he didn't rule against a law in a case the SCOTUS never should have taken up in the first place (because the only Appeals court decision against the law had been vacated, so there was no Circuit Court split on the issue), doesn't mean he doesn't consistently line up on the conservative side.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: If Webb wins nomination, would you vote for him in general? on: June 27, 2015, 11:27:02 pm
Yes he's so racist against East Asians that his wife is Vietnamese.

LOL. What a wonderful world you live in.

Considering your basis for claiming Webb was racist against East Asians was essentially that he was hawkish against China, what sort of evidence would you want? How is this any different from True Leftists claiming Hillary hates brown people because she voted for Iraq, is pro-Israel etc.?

I said I wouldn't be surprised if he was. Not that he was. Your claim that his wife as Vietnamese as a defense is hilarious though. In my experience guys who are super into East Asia are more likely to be racist, strangely enough.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census: Millenials officially surpassed Boomers in 2014, more diverse on: June 27, 2015, 09:01:35 pm
I think Boomers are great. They gave us Forrest Gump. Wink

No seriously, 1946-64 was a fine generation. In many ways they're more sane than Millennials, because I think social media can drive people a little mad.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Alexis Tsipras on: June 27, 2015, 08:46:29 pm
It's unfortunate that the EU is what it is, when in theory it should have been something radically leftist. The idea of transcending a nationalism that did so much damage in Europe remains a beautiful idea to me, it's too bad it can't be implemented.
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