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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / FBI Director James Comey links 'Viral Videos' to rising crime rates on: May 27, 2016, 01:12:03 am
"Is there something about those [viral videos] that is affecting law enforcement at the marginal proactive policing edge? That is, are officers in some places more reluctant to get out of their cars and engage in the kind of community policing that helps reduce crime," he said.

"Iím not against videotaping police. Iím not against scrutiny. We get better that way. But what Iím asking is there something unintentionally affecting our communities thatís affecting the spike in violent crime? I donít know for sure, but I know weíve got to talk about it."

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 26, 2016, 09:55:23 am
Also, a little troubling in this report is how much of it is a Hillary roast. The authors have to be aware of the presidential campaign going on. One of the lead investigators is a former Grassley staffer. One major area of concern is that from the facts hereby presented, Clinton (a) e-mailed with dozens, if not hundreds of State Department staffers on her private e-mail address, (b) low level IT staffers were aware she had a private e-mail server and that an external consultant was working on it, and (c) the head of the department that oversees the CIO and DS's departments was aware of it, and (d) "many" members of administrative bureaucratic departments sent e-mail to her server,


Both the CIO an DS deny have approved the server, or being aware of the "scope" of her use of the server. So low-level IT staff, the boss of CIO and DS, were aware of her e-mail server, but the CIO and DS were not aware of it for four years (despite knowing she had a clintonemail.com domain)? Isn't this something the OIG should have been concerned about? After all, it doesn't shy away from calling out staff members in other areas of the report. There's no evidence OIG ever pressed the CIO and DS if they ever attempted to find out more about Clinton's e-mail situation, and if not, why not.

This is the equivalent of a traffic cop saying, "I was never consulted about her speeding, and if she had asked I would have said she shouldn't speed," yet sitting there every day as she drives by at 70 mph. Now news reports are making it seem like her private e-mail situation was some kind of secret. Hence I am concerned this report is not fair and balanced, and emphasizes the negative with respect to SoS. But in doing so, it fails to hold the CIO and DS to account. Of course, these two individuals also have their own reputations to protect so they will minimize their knowledge of the situation and claim in retrospect to be as conservative as possible. But political appointees are not always aware of the technical issues or the details of compliance, so these two do have an obligation, if they become aware of any serious breach of security, to raise it.

There is no evidence OIG ever attempted to pursue these questions. This raises the worry that OIG was not impartial.

EDIT: As to the possibility CIO and DS were intimidated from above, their boss, Patrick Kennedy agreed to be interviewed, which would suggest he's not under criminal investigation. The crazy thing is, after reading this whole report I'm still not clear as to what happened.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 26, 2016, 08:53:16 am
This is perfect for Trump. If he wins, it's the Trump magic all over again and he reinforces his air of invincibility, plus gets attention to himself which he always loves. If he loses, and helps Bernie win the California primary, he gets to mock Hillary over not being able to 'close to the deal' and hopes Bernie's people riot at the convention. By that point he'll probably have a double digit lead in the polls. I wouldn't even be surprised if he deliberately loses this one, or frames his arguments in a way that makes Bernie look good to Democrats.

Bernie is playing right into his trap.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 26, 2016, 08:37:23 am
I can't tell if "HC Soul Sister" is a troll.

In any case, as far as the public interest goes, I think I can make a case that it's in the public interest for candidates running in major elections not to be indicted. Let's be real here, an indictment amounts to a judgement from unelected law enforcement officials that a certain person should not be allowed to run. That is a major problem when an election is already well underway and voters are therefore deprived of meaningful choices. If that happened in every election, what would be the point of elections then? So strictly arguing from the perspective of the public interest, it's devastating to the public interest. That goes no matter who the person is or what party they belong to.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 07:47:55 pm
The report also says that Department employees are required by rule to sign a form that indicates they have surrendered all records, but that of Albright, Powell, Rice and Clinton, none of them were asked to sign the form. So you could have a defense that says, yes, the Secretary was above the Foreign Affairs Manual rules, but so were all of the Secretaries. So it was more a matter of undue deference given to the position, than a character of Clinton herself.

The Executive Secretariat's FOIA comments are what is most worrying vis-a-vis indictment that I can see right now.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 07:32:51 pm
Well, this report is a f'ing disaster.

I know you guys know I love to fret but I usually fret about future outcomes. I often defend Clinton on substantive matters.

First of all, this isn't a case of "everybody else does it." No one else does it. Secretary Powell used a personal e-mail address exclusively yes, but that was installed for him by the Department staff, so it has the imprimatur of bureaucratic approval. Also, the relevant rule in the Department Manual was not promulgated until 2005. The rule clearly distinguishes Clinton's situation from the "300+ other high-level government officials" who use personal e-mail for government business. It states that normal day-to-day operations are to be conducted on an approved electronic platform. Clinton's platform was not approved.

Yes, it is true that Department IT staff, including senior bureaucratic staff, were involved in discussions of her e-mail system and sent e-mails to her private e-mail. And some IT staff, including senior bureaucratic staff, were aware that she used a private e-mail server.

However, this appears to be a matter of bureaucratic staff not having the will to stand up to the Secretary and say, "No, this is against the rules." Complicating this is the fact that there was no precedent of any Secretary using a government e-mail address. So who is going to say, well there's this obscure rule in the Department Manual that prohibits a private e-mail server, to the Secretary? Apparently no one. Granted, many Manual rules (such as those requiring e-mails be printed and filed) were widely flaunted, but the report highlights that the Ambassador to Kenya was disciplined in part over this particular rule.

But worst of all is the part where there's an e-mail from the Executive Secretariat mentioning FOIA requests as a factor in whether to set up a government e-mail addresses for Clinton. This suggests he believed that she was using a private e-mail in part to skirt FOIA requests. There's a reason why the probability of an indictment is up 6 percentage points on PredictIt today.

Needless to say I am furious at the Secretary. This election is about us, not her, and I supported her because I thought she was the best candidate for us. Now I am not so sure. John Edwards proves that sometimes people who others invest a lot in, have a reckless disregard for the hopes of their own supporters.

So congrats, Clinton haters, you win. When/if Clinton is indicted then I would support her delegates to draft Warren, but the Sanders folks would make a strong pitch to take over the party. In any case I am probably out of discussing politics on forums for the cycle. I have a personal life, and this just exacerbates my neurotic tendencies.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone remember when Clinton refused to drop out in 2008 on: May 23, 2016, 10:22:14 pm
I think her point was just that the 1968 primary was still being contested as late June, when RFK happened to be assassinated.

That's what the people at the Argus Leader who were with her in the interview said it was. That's also the take RFK Jr. had on the comments.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary really in trouble? on: May 23, 2016, 06:16:51 pm
Sure, if there are enough ANGRY NH WOMEN anything is possible!

She skyrocketed

Are you sure you're from WV? Tongue
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump a fraud? on: May 23, 2016, 04:34:22 pm
This thread represents yet another version of Trump Deniers.  They never stop.  First he wasn't serious, then he couldn't get nominated, now, he's a "Fraud".  Perhaps if they work hard enough, they'll link Trump to Iran-Contra.

Trump is who he is.  He's a billionaire businessman, and his businesses are well-known to the general public.  Whether or not someone views what Trump does as adequate preparation for the Presidency is another question, but Trump has more executive experience at the highest levels of business than anyone else running, and that's always considered valid experience.  How many Democrats who lambaste Trump for being "unqualified" were around in the 1980s hoping that Lee Iacocca would be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 1984?

Being less than a year old in 1984, I didn't know who Lee Iacocca is, let alone was hoping he'd run. Sure, business moguls have run countries before (Silvio Berlusconi, Petro Poroshenko) but what is the record?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A possible map. on: May 19, 2016, 10:45:57 am
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: Trump's Appeal Stretches To Suburbs That Had Been Trending Blue on: May 19, 2016, 10:45:05 am
Yeah, pretty much the only impact the president has on social issues is the Supreme Court. And even though that's brought up every cycle, in this cycle it actually is guaranteed to make a difference. You could have a non-social conservative doing more for social conservatives, than actual social conservatives have done for themselves in 20 years.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging on: May 19, 2016, 09:42:29 am
Even if you are right, anger isn't going to do anything productive. These people don't like Clinton because she has failed to make the case for them. Right now all she can do is try to make the case to the majority of voters in the upcoming contests, just like she has all year, and then if she has a popular vote/pledged delegate majority, argue that that means she should be the nominee. After that point she can turn her full attention to arguing she'd make a better president than Trump. Any anger on top of that accomplishes nothing, and just looks entitled. Personally I know I would not like to be shamed into voting for anyone or policing my tone, and it wouldn't work.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging on: May 19, 2016, 09:29:04 am
"Unified his party".  To be clear, almost every general election poll has Clinton getting at least a slightly larger share of Democrats than Trump gets of Republicans.  But Trump is also competitive with, if not winning, Independents, which is why he's competitive overall.  Of course, it's still really early.

I think independents are swayed by the fact that they see one side speaking with a united voice, and the other side speaking with a divided voice (half of which the content of what they're saying validates the other side, particularly in matchups involving Clinton). In any conflict, this will make the united side seem more credible. It is true that there are still some Republican holdouts like Romney, but the party as a whole is far more united than before, and this has coincided with the Trump surge in the polls. Nothing much else has changed.

To be clear, I'm probably one of the only Clinton supporters who's not angry at Sanders even if he is hurting Clinton in the GE polls. He's entitled to do as he likes, and he doesn't owe Clinton anything.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump accuses Bill Clinton of rape; Juanita Broaddrick may make re-appearance. on: May 19, 2016, 09:24:11 am
Anyone who commits rape should be arrested, tried and convicted in a court of law... unfortunately, that includes the ex-President. We live in a civilized country, and no one should be above the law. And as a feminist supporter, it doesn't necessarily bother me that Bill's (or any accused's) reputation is perhaps irreparably damaged by this, since whether or not the damage to him is justified depends on facts we don't know.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging on: May 19, 2016, 09:14:01 am
I expect some pretty ugly GE polls so long as the Democratic nomination is not decided one way or another. Right now it's a single-sided war, and only one side is really shooting with full force. Democrats need to prepare to take fire until July 25 - 28 while we get our business sorted out. Meanwhile, Trump should aim to put both Democrats in such a bad position by late July that they have a steep uphill climb going into the fall - similar to the one Humphrey had in 1968, that he was unable to recover from. That will be a tougher job for him since the conventions this year are a month earlier than usual.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NJ-Quinnipiac: Clinton 54% Sanders 40% on: May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 am
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver eats crow on: May 18, 2016, 08:50:25 pm
The problem with endorsement points is twofold. One, their value seems to be justified primarily in the last three or four elections. No academic will tell you that a valid sample size can be three or four, or even seventeen, as Silver himself acknowledges.

Secondly, what is the theoretical mechanism of transmission? In the Washington caucus, Hillary had the endorsement of both party Senators, the Governor, the mayor of Seattle, and dozens of state legislators. If these people had some magical powers of mind control, it wouldn't have been a 48 point loss. In 2008, Obama lost Massachusetts by 16 points even though both Kerry and the Kennedy family rallied around him. So if endorsements don't work at the state level, why would it work at the national level? It's not explained now it's supposed to work.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clintonís viral nightmare: A video of her Ďlying for 13 minutesí on: May 18, 2016, 08:43:31 pm
Because Trump has been consistent? Hillary has been active in public life for nearly half a century, and she's been one of the most scrutinized figures in recent history. Her "take" on issues as broad as "health care" and "Wall Street" is going to vary based on context.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump reach out to the black community? on: May 13, 2016, 03:29:20 pm
Trump / the Sleepy Doctor '16.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton supporters, are you scared that Hillary will blow it? on: May 13, 2016, 03:28:12 pm
If I say yes, will I get relentlessly castigated for it?

Of course. That being said, I don't think the GE begins until the Democratic nomination is decided. There are still two candidates who claim they can win the nomination. One step at a time.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Reminder: Clinton polled far better than Obama at this point in 2008 on: May 13, 2016, 09:03:07 am
Unfortunately Sanders doesn't appear to have much of a chance of getting this fact across to people in time. So it's all moot.

He's planning on knocking on over 1 million doors in California, so I'm sure he'll "get the message out". Whether the "message" is true or not.

Anyway, neither candidate was doing as well against McCain as Obama would ultimately do. The fact that there was a primary going but none on the GOP side meant the Democratic supporters weren't consolidated and didn't have a unified message. Same as this year.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: George Zimmerman auctioning off gun he used to kill Trayvon Martin on: May 12, 2016, 07:23:58 pm
He's sick.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC: Emails from Clinton's IT Director at State Department Appear To Be Missing on: May 12, 2016, 07:18:47 pm
If any of us were Secretary of State, we'd be treated the same as Colin Powell and Condolezza Rice.
24  General Politics / Political Debate / MOVED: Who would you vote for?(UK General Election 2025) on: April 28, 2016, 07:35:58 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

25  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do you support public space exploration? on: March 29, 2016, 02:13:19 pm
Certainly. And I applaud the incredible achievements of Elon Musk.
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