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July 24, 2016, 01:51:36 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In this thread, we post r/S4P reactions to tonight's news on: July 23, 2016, 11:04:28 am
Remember when Bernie's campaign was just supposed to be about pushing Clinton to the left and having a conversation so she'd be a better candidate?
2  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Would you support a military coup? on: July 23, 2016, 02:27:49 am
How is this even a question? Are you some closet NRA nutjob? No, no, and no. There is a reason why treason is illegal, folks. Re-fighting the revolutionary war would not be a good thing for our country. Have you seen Syria lately? How is this even a thread?
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The last movie you've seen thread 2016 on: July 23, 2016, 01:31:19 am
Mike and Dave need a wedding date

Pleasantly surprised, comedies are always more enjoyable when you go in not expecting to laugh at all.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: July 22, 2016, 07:42:54 pm
If that's true, please provide a link, because that's what's keeping me from embracing Kaine for anything right now.

Quote
I am having discussions with groups around Virginia about the treaty itself. I see much in it to like. I think its an upgrade of labor standards. I think its an upgrade of environmental standards, I think its an upgrade in intellectual property protections, he explained. I do see at least right now that there is one element that I do have some very significant concerns about. And that is the dispute resolution mechanism. And Ive got a lot of concerns about that. So I have no idea about when a vote would be because the majority will make that decision. And Im not in the majority. But long before there would be a vote on that Im trying to climb the learning curve on the areas where I have questions. So again, much of it I see I think as a significant improvement over the status quo. The dispute resolution mechanism I still have some significant concerns about.

https://theintercept.com/2016/07/21/hours-before-hillary-clintons-vp-decision-likely-pick-tim-kaine-praises-the-tpp/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: July 22, 2016, 07:31:29 pm
As I said in the other thread, this is a terrible pick and I don't know how I'm going to vote this November now.

Why? It's not like you'll be seeing a lot of him or hearing him much as opposed to Hillary. In all my years, who the VP is has never been much of an issue with me. Except for the Dan Quayle years. He was an embarrassment, but Kaine certainly is smart, articulate, loyal and a decent human being.

He's pro-TPP.  He favors one of the first things Hillary would renege on.

I don't live in a deciding state anyway, so I can vote my conscience.

North Caronlina isn't a swing state?

Democrats don't need it to win.

It's literally the 4th most likely to be a tipping point state in 538.

Edit: Also, Kaine hasn't said how he'll vote on the TPP; he says he has concerns about the dispute resolution mechanism.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton picks Kaine for veep on: July 22, 2016, 07:20:09 pm
Despite earlier misgivings, I'm fine with the pick. His record is undoubtedly good and he seems like a decent human being.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them on: July 22, 2016, 07:08:48 pm
It's Kaine

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/us/politics/tim-kaine-hillary-clinton-vice-president.html?_r=0&mtrref=t.co&gwh=23768A3B692EDCB63E5768DA45389562&gwt=pay
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WikiLeaks DNC emails megathread on: July 22, 2016, 06:45:22 pm
Re: RNC emails; That would depend on what came out.

75,000 e-mails about Hillary Clinton and her allies have now been publicly released -- unprecedented for a public figure in American history -- and no evidence of corruption has been found. Meanwhile, Trump won't even release his tax returns, which is supposed to be customary.

Quote
It looks desperate when y'all try and deflect this as a Putin conspiracy. Cold War 2.0 much?

A foreign power trying to interfere with domestic American politics should trouble all Americans, regardless of politics.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Dallas police applications increase after shooting on: July 22, 2016, 06:41:53 pm
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/756620444174782464

A marked contrast to Baltimore when applications decreased after riots.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WikiLeaks DNC emails megathread on: July 22, 2016, 06:35:45 pm
I don't think a few emails constitute a massive conspiracy. It's no surprise the DNC preferred Clinton. No one disputes that. If anything this exonerates the DNC from massive vote rigging charges.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Would Fund Super PACs to Defeat Cruz, Kasich on: July 22, 2016, 06:22:00 pm
This is modus operandi for Trump. He praises whoever supports him and tries to destroy anyone who disagrees with him. The point is a warning against others from going against him.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Luntz to delegates: GOP has 'lost' the millennial generation on: July 22, 2016, 04:52:01 pm
I'm not feeling well. I need to take a few hours off.

Please leave and don't come back. Or go to Stormfront where you will find many supporters.

I am not a bigot. I'm an American. I have to speak up.

bronz, take some time off. Cool down. Watch a comedy movie. This is a rough time for all of us.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's nomination is the first time US politics has left me truly afraid on: July 22, 2016, 04:49:36 pm
How is it a hit piece when his words are on tape? Yes, he thought Saddam should have been taken out in '91, but he appears to endorse doing so in '02 given the situation at the time. It wasn't a ringing endorsement, but it was an explicit yes.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 04:02:46 pm
Wrong decision. This is making her look weak and indecisive, which is the LAST thing she needs to project if she wants to defeat the orange man.

How is it either weak or indecisive? There's no indication she changed her mind, or was cowed out of announcing for fear of anything, she's just delaying out of respect for the dead.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 12:47:16 pm
It has to be delayed. Not delaying it now throws away the whole news cycle.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kaine fatigue real? on: July 22, 2016, 12:09:08 pm
The ticket needs some enthusiasm and Kaine brings none. His pro-banking and TPP comments are problematic, and make it tougher for the Sanders wing of the party which includes nearly half the total and a majority of its northern whites. He's a better pick than Vilsack, Perez or Booker but that's not saying much.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Hillary let Trump get to the left of her on trade? on: July 22, 2016, 08:53:30 am
As it stands how, Trump is definitely trying to run to the left of Hillary on trade. Hillary has also come out against the TPP, criticized NAFTA, and previously opposed trade deals like CAFTA. Historically, the Democrats were more protectionist, and the Congressional Democrats still are. But there is definitely an opening, as we saw in the primary.

If you recall, Sanders won the Michigan primary by raising the right questions on the TPP and trade. Afterwards, Clinton came out hard campaigning against jobs moving overseas for the next week, and put in a decent performance (against lower expectations) in the Midwest. However, now she is dropping the ball once again.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Trump Speech on: July 22, 2016, 08:40:29 am
A-

You're seeing him continue to triangulate and adopt Democratic points, which is effective just as it was for Bill Clinton and Tony Blair in the 1990s. I've gotta hand it to the Republicans, in the last three cycles, despite the Tea Party, they've always gone with a moderate at the top of the ticket. They want to win. The 'fighting for us' theme is an old Hillary favorite (one of her themes this year was just that). Even the "I'm with you" is a crib off "She's with us" which was always the counterpart to "I'm with Her". He even said LGBTQ, talked about protecting workers who lost their jobs, and Ivanka talked about family leave. I had to remind myself which party's convention I was at. The law and order stuff was basically a freebie given to him by BLM. For these reasons it was a strong speech to frame a campaign to appeal to swing voters.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's genius. on: July 21, 2016, 11:20:32 pm
Most who whine about "political correctness" are pretty much complaining that they can't be a**holes without consequence.

Yeah, but people like the right to behave like an asshole sometimes. Like, one of the reasons I don't like open carry, is, I like feeling like I can flick someone off without worry about them pointing a gun at me.

I don't condone racist, or sexist sentiments, but I think it's gotten to the point where many citizens feel like well intentioned and good faith disagreement gets shut down as morally outrageous. And then it drives them into the arms of people like Trump, who is really dangerous. We have to try to be kinder to one another and not just assume that everyone who disagrees with you has committed some terrible sin.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Four myths in the GOP Platform on: July 21, 2016, 11:16:33 pm
The main point is that net illegal migration from Mexico has basically stopped, it plummeted after 2007 and never recovered. The whole illegal immigration problem was largely a Bush era phenom and the country just hasn't woken up to it yet.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 10:22:03 pm
bronz, my friend has a big house right smack dab in the middle of Baltimore, a block from the riots, and they never touched it. They never touched any homes, they only went after chain stores. Not to say it was a great night by any means but ordinary people have nothing to fear from Ferguson and Baltimore.

(edit: ok, literally two private residences in the entire city. not statistically significant as a danger)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 08:27:28 pm
Not a bad Thiel speech but he spent half of it making the case for big government.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 07:36:03 pm
Based off of Trump's leaked script, he's offically backed off the ban on all Muslims.  He specifically mentions banning immigration from "countries infiltrated by terrorism".  His free trade rhetoric is also more tame.  He says he will negotiate individual deals with each nation.

So he's moved to code words.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Kaine considered so likely, a candidate for VP? on: July 21, 2016, 06:51:49 pm
Given the leaked version of Trump's speech tonight, he's attacking Clinton for being establishment. Doesn't she need someone who's perceived as anti-establishment, or at least a little colorful, like Franken? Literally the only good things I've heard about him are that he speaks Spanish and he's a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even Bernie would be a better pick than Kaine.

Who would not be part of the establishment?  All Democratic governors and Senators are by definition part of the establishment.  Obama cabinet secretaries are part of the establishment.  Franken is establishment.  Even Warren is part of the establishment.  It's not like Hillary is going to pick a businessman as veep.

What Clinton should be more worried about is the optics of holding a convention with a long list of boring, bloviating politicians speaking.  The list of DNC speakers released today is far too lengthy and needlessly full of longtime Democratic politicians.  That will only reinforce Trump's attacks on this matter.

Good point. I have to admit the other top contenders mentioned are even worse than Kaine.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why is Kaine considered so likely, a candidate for VP? on: July 21, 2016, 06:35:22 pm
Given the leaked version of Trump's speech tonight, he's attacking Clinton for being establishment. Doesn't she need someone who's perceived as anti-establishment, or at least a little colorful, like Franken? Literally the only good things I've heard about him are that he speaks Spanish and he's a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even Bernie would be a better pick than Kaine.
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