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February 01, 2015, 02:42:16 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Elections 2 years after they actually happened beginning with Nixon vs McGovern on: Today at 01:36:43 pm
Carter would lose 1978.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Belarus Edges Away from Putin's Russia, Fearful of Ukraine's Fate on: Today at 01:32:39 pm
This seems like a real dumb move, "I'm afraid of Russia so I'll antagonize them"

Russia's the one doing the antagonizing
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: To what extent will Bill campaign with Hillary? on: January 30, 2015, 09:09:21 pm
Supposedly, he would be more integrated into the campaign this time. According to one poll I saw, her association with him is still a net positive.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AG nominee Lynch defends civil asset forfeiture on: January 30, 2015, 08:56:57 pm
Another disappointment from Obama.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Clinton May Delay Campaign Launch Until Summer on: January 30, 2015, 08:44:15 pm
Bernstein explains:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-29/hillary-clinton-s-brazen-non-candidacy

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Out in the real world, contenders such as Clinton have been running for months or years by now. Sure, they could drop out, but that can happen after a formal announcement, too. Formal announcements are staged events, not decision points.
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If Clinton really thinks she can avoid criticism by pretending she isn't a candidate, she's deluding herself. But if she wants to use her supposed non-candidacy as an excuse to duck some questions she would rather not answer, or simply to shorten the time shes eventually going to have to spend on the road doing active campaigning, then I cant see theres much harm done.

In the meantime, the rest of us have no reason to take this dance seriously. Clinton is running for president right now, and the press and everyone else should treat her as an active candidate.

But isn't part of treating someone like an active candidate asking questions like "Why do you want to run for president? What would you do as president?" etc. Those seem like pretty basic, fundamental parts of a campaign to me.

Particularly, as someone who likes and would almost certainly support Hillary, I'm inclined to listen to what she says, and if she hasn't said she's definitely running, I'm not going to be as active in that support. When a candidate announces they get a boost from supporters who know the candidate has asked for their vote and their support and is explicitly in the game with them.

I also don't see the logic of using a non-announcement to duck important questions, since they're only going to come anyway if she does announce. And if she dislike campaigning so much that she's making major campaign decisions on the basis of reducing her campaigning time, she's probably genuinely hesitant about running anyway, or should be. Running for president is non-stop campaigning and if the candidate doesn't like it, it shows.

Anyway, if Bernstein is saying he wants to attack and criticize Hillary regardless of whether she's announced or not, it's his right to do so. But I think the picture he paints is incomplete and an announcement is a bigger deal than he's making it out to be.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why the hate for Gavin Newsom from the left? on: January 30, 2015, 05:35:43 pm
Who on the left views him negatively? My strongest impression was that he's a hero on the left for facilitating gay marriages in San Francisco, though admittedly that was 10 years ago.

And Andrew Cuomo led the push for gay marriage in New York.

Yeah but that was in 2011 when it was a near-mainstream position. In 2004 it was a radical thing to do, particularly since it went against state law.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you were a woman, would you wear the hijab when visiting Saudi Arabia? on: January 30, 2015, 05:31:13 pm
Anyway, isn't Michelle Obama gorgeous? She's definitely the best-looking First Lady since Jackie, and possibly even more so.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why the hate for Gavin Newsom from the left? on: January 30, 2015, 05:30:01 pm
Who on the left views him negatively? My strongest impression was that he's a hero on the left for facilitating gay marriages in San Francisco, though admittedly that was 10 years ago.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you were a woman, would you wear the hijab when visiting Saudi Arabia? on: January 30, 2015, 04:22:15 pm
Yes. There is nothing inherently oppressive about the hijab.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) now pro-choice on: January 30, 2015, 04:13:32 pm
He was featured in a documentary called Death By China that I was watching in my AP Comparative Government class. Certainly less interesting than Paul Ryan.

They're showing documentaries demonizing China in public school now?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe the 1 person in King County, TX that voted for Wendy Davis on: January 30, 2015, 02:46:27 pm
It's hard to believe that George McGovern got 75 votes in this county. Obama '12 got 5 votes. Wendy Davis 1. Talk about disappearing act...
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you think democracy can actually work in China? on: January 30, 2015, 12:45:45 pm
As for freedom, Janis Joplin called it another word for "nothin' left to lose."  Whether or not they have tasted it, I'm sure that China doesn't want to be India.  

I'm sure India doesn't want to be China, either. In any case, that comparison is rather a fallacy that assumes the only difference between China and India is their form of government, ignoring massive differences in history and culture. A better comparison would be China and Taiwan.

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Also, we cannot say for certain that the air quality would be any better in a democracy.  In fact, it could be far worse.  Beijing cleaned up as much as it did and as quick as it did for the olympics precisely because they don't have to put up with democracy.

Yes, and they put many people out of work. The only way to get worse than China's air quality is to breathe China's polluted air and smoke cigarettes on top of that (as 50% of Chinese men do). Yet because the government makes 7% of its revenue off cigarettes, it has been extremely reluctant to crack down on smoking. In a democracy, public health advocates would be able to oppose the tobacco lobby. Nearly half the cigarettes in the world are smoked in China. That's a big negative when considering the "air quality" actually going into people's lungs.

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We cannot know whether the Three Gorges dam would have been built if the millions of people who were displaced from their ancestral homelands by rising waters had any input in the decision, but it probably would not have been built as quickly and as efficiently.

Certainly autocracy has some benefits when it comes to the construction of infrastructure, but modern China is approaching the limits of what can be achieved with more infrastructure. Returns are diminishing. After a certain point more roads, railroads, airports and dams just stop contributing as much to growth as they did initially. Also let's not forget that the current wave of Chinese economic growth was unleashed not when the government decided to start spending on infrastructure, but when the government decided to liberalize its management of the economy, allowing market forces a greater role. In a way, it was the market forces that financed the infrastructure spending to begin with.

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Like I said, I voted yes, because I think it "can work" with democracy, but I am not sure it would work quite as well as it does without it.  I don't think you should underestimate the importance of utility value and economic indicators.  Justice and fairness don't put food on the table, and the Chinese have had a much longer time to think about what is important and what isn't than any other extant society.  Therefore, you also should not underestimate the importance of history.

This is a valid point, but there may be economic advantages to switching to a democratic system of government in the long run that are underestimated as well. The Great Firewall and the heavy censorship of the Internet stifles innovation and makes it harder to do business in China. The government's one child policy (supported by the CPC family planning bureaucracy) will create a country where 1/4 of the population are retirees and that will heavily tax the economic system. And then there is the militarism that comes with an autocratic government. The more other countries see China as a threat, the less likely they will be willing to cooperate with China and share technology with it, the more difficult it will be for China to invest abroad, and the more China will have to spend on defense. If China gets into a war with another country, its economy could be devastated. Over the long run all of these factors will be more important than building infrastructure.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can you imagine this forum will be if Cuomo actually runs for President? on: January 29, 2015, 04:36:07 pm
Cuomo isn't running for POTUS. That was true before the Silver affair on top of his shutting down the ethics investigation, and it is even more true now. In fact, he will have trouble getting re-elected again. He' done. JMO.

You think so?

http://www.rochesterhomepage.net/story/d/story/cuomo-approval-ratings-up/27876/KR1AsmjNi0imGdnK-pnsvg

His approval rating is 60%. Outside the Atlas/far left bubble, he isn't the devil incarnate.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can you imagine this forum will be if Cuomo actually runs for President? on: January 29, 2015, 04:28:00 pm
The forum's fetish for bashing Cuomo certainly is a little creepy. He may be a bit conservative for New York, but Joe Lieberman he is not.

Hillary = Lieberman
Cuomo = worse than Lieberman

That's funny, I don't recall Hillary betraying her party like Lieberman and Cuomo routinely did/do. In fact, last time I checked, she's going to single handedly save the party from our pathetic bench that has been slaughtered in the midterms, and (hopefully) save the country from a Republican trifecta under President Walker/Romney/Bush 3.0.

jfern is unhinged - comparing the only person who is giving her party a chance in 2016 to someone who literally left the party and endorsed the presidential nominee of the other party and refused to endorse Obama both times.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Clinton May Delay Campaign Launch Until Summer on: January 29, 2015, 04:16:51 pm
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A huge advantage to waiting is that Clinton postpones the time when she goes before the public as a politician rather than as a former secretary of state. Polling by both Democrats and Republicans shows that one of her biggest vulnerabilities is looking political.

There's no way to run for president without "looking political." It's the most consummately political thing a person can do. So I don't see how they expect to run a presidential campaign by avoiding this.

The Clinton campaign can easily address Hillary's vulnerabilities - simply by building a campaign around substance. When Clinton is associated with a particular message then people will take sides for or against that message, and she just won't just be "a Clinton" who's just running for president because "it's her turn" or "she wants power for the sake of power" et cetera. Instead, she can actually put something up at stake that's clear to the public.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pro-Romney group running radio ads against Bush, Christie, and Palin on: January 28, 2015, 09:21:01 pm
As I said, I'm going to enjoy watching the Republican candidates rip each other to shreds. What was that 11th Commandment again? Cheesy
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate GOP Might Nix Filibuster For SCOTUS Nominees on: January 28, 2015, 09:08:02 pm
Why should anybody imagine that the current ideological makeup of the Supreme Court is/should be set in stone? George H.W. Bush nominated Clarence Thomas to replace Thurgood Marshall, for God's sake. George W. Bush nominated Samuel Alito to replace Sandra Day O'Connor. Why is it OK for the right to use nominations to ratchet the court in their direction and then deny any movement in the other direction by appeals to procedure and tradition or something?

I think they think they can get some good press out of this, still stop any nominees of Obama's they don't like that might crop up over the next two years, and can maybe ride that wave of bipartisan feeling to better results in 2016.

Because of the court's extreme ideological polarization in the last 20 years, a change of just Kennedy's seat to either the left or the right would set off a massive sea change in policy equivalent to one party winning supermajorities in congress with an ideological presidency. That huge of a change without an explicit democratic approval would arguably be illegitimate. Hence the concern. It wouldn't be a problem if the court were nonpartisan just interpreted the law as it is supposed to do, but it has become the third (and arguably most powerful) legislative branch in the current generation.
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do child whites get beaten? on: January 28, 2015, 08:54:15 pm
Just wondering this.  I remember myself and all my Asian suburban friends getting slapped for our infelicities through age 10.  Thinking back, it truly does seem to be a very Asian and suburban thing.

Yeah, I can definitely identify with this. My parents would slap (not spank) me for any show of disrespect, etc. well into middle school and on (rare) occasions high school. I've always been curious if this is something unique to the Asian diaspora.

I was an Asian suburban kid and I can't imagine being hit growing up. Then again, given how much of my life I've spent on this site, maybe there really is something to it.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of Bashar Assad on: January 28, 2015, 06:20:55 pm
HP. I can understand that the U.S. has supported dictators in the past, but there's a difference between run-of-the-mill oppression and literally destroying your country and killing off a significant chunk of the population to stay in power. Especially since the U.S. said for years he should leave power, Obama laid out his red lines, it's humiliating for the U.S. that we have to turn to him now.
20  General Politics / Economics / Bond yields are plunging. on: January 28, 2015, 05:12:49 pm
The 10 year reached 1.72 today.

ECRI WLI Weekly Leading Index is dropping

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php

If jmfcst were still here, I wonder if he would be calling recession?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Rand Paul fails in 2016... on: January 28, 2015, 05:11:10 pm
If he's anything like his dad, he'll still be running in 2040.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can you imagine this forum will be if Cuomo actually runs for President? on: January 27, 2015, 11:30:03 pm
The forum's fetish for bashing Cuomo certainly is a little creepy. He may be a bit conservative for New York, but Joe Lieberman he is not.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Koch brothers to spend $900 million on 2016 elections on: January 27, 2015, 08:23:07 pm
It's true that money doesn't always buy elections... up to a point. For example, a lot of super PACs just splurged on ads in 2012/2014 when academic research shows that face-to-face interaction is more effective at getting the vote out. That makes it look like money is ineffective. But they were just doing it wrong. Over time, they will learn. If you increase the amount of money enough, and extend it out for a long enough period of time, I believe you can buy elections, and the outcomes you want.

Republicans are happy because the Koch Brothers are spending for them, and Democrats would be happy if it were George Soros spending for them. We're all okay with the billionaires as long as they're our billionaires. Over the long run though, this has nothing to do with party politics.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL: Grayson, DWS (among others) looking at Rubio's seat on: January 27, 2015, 01:50:59 pm
She doesn't care about winning elections for her party (which is what she's supposed to be doing), she only cares about advancing her own career.

What does that even mean?

It means that she should never be in a leadership position.

I think you missed the meaning of my question.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Correctness and Hillary Clinton 2016 on: January 27, 2015, 01:48:47 pm
I wonder if Chait remembers that in 2007, Hillary's campaign assiduously tried to avoid what he calls "identity politics" (e.g., calling attention to the historic nature of her campaign). That got her this and this. When she frankly embraced her role as a woman in politics fighting stereotypes she was at her best.

Sexism is not some academic debate for Clinton or her campaign. If it is allowed to go on unchallenged against her, it will literally shape media and cultural narratives that cost her the election.
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