Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 16, 2017, 10:12:12 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 484 485 486 487 488 [489] 490 491 492 493 494 ... 696
12201  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who do you consider the most dominant Atlas personalities? on: February 15, 2008, 01:07:03 am
jimrtex, A18, J.J., Alcon, Lewis, Al, muon, and many others contribute an amazing amount of information and analysis.
12202  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your first impression of the preceding member on: February 15, 2008, 01:05:15 am
A moderate, reasonable poster from California who is interested in Atlasian politics. Used to think he was similar to John Ford, which is amusing now.
12203  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 10 year old shoots 9 year old sister in face over chips with dad's shotgun on: February 15, 2008, 01:02:41 am

Especially given that horrible murder of that psychologist up in New York. Killed by a meat Cleaver. Should we now ban meat cleavers as well?

And Ottermax, I'm alright with some gun control. Not happy with it, since I dont think it curbs crime and I don't like the goverment telling me what I can and can't own but I'm willing to accept some slight gun control, as long as the states decide it. But when people like the Fuhrer play the "let's ban guns card" I feel I must defend them.



I thought he was being sarcastic?

I would hope so...
12204  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: How does Clinton win Every Future Primary 56% to 44% ? on: February 15, 2008, 12:48:08 am
Using RCP it's Obama 1,116 pledge delegates and Clinton 989.

We have 1,032 more pledge delegates available. 

That means if Hillary wins every single future primary 56% to 44% in terms of delegates that gives her 1,567 to Obama 1,570 in terms of pledge delegates.

Now, unless you are a Clinton hack, it's clear that this is not going to happen unless Obama says the most stupid things in the world. 

So she can only win this nomination with:

   Super delegates
   The nonsense about seating FL/MI.  Imagine sitting MI when Obama wasn't even
       on the ballot.  Garbage argument.


Clinton supporters, how can you support her at this point?  You've got a great candidate in Obama who leads McCain.  Why not move support to Obama and will you support him if he gets the nomination ?


I support Hillary for many reasons, but most of all because I think she has fought for and embodies the kind of values that mesh with my political idealism. In that sense I am not so different.

My support of her is kind of half-hearted; I play my role on a stage, and play it proudly.

But I accept that she will probably lose and even hope for it if it will help unite Democrats again.
12205  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama picks up a slew of endorsements... on: February 15, 2008, 12:32:53 am

LOL I heard this story but posting DU as the main source? Are you trying to become the official laughing stock of the forum?

The source is legit (the link at DU goes back to The Times of the UK), but my reason for asking remains - I cannot find where it says that "she is far more optimistic about House races with him as the nominee. Pelosi and her advisers apparently believe that with Obama as the nominee Democrats will gain seats while with Hillary as the nominee Democrats will lose seats."

Here is what it says:

Quote
A senior adviser to Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, has suggested that she – along with other “party elders” – will step into the ring if they feel that Democratic hopes of winning back the White House or maintaining control over Congress are being threatened. Ms Pelosi insists that she remains neutral in the race and that her “focus is on reelecting a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives”.

However, her voice would carry great authority among many uncommitted super-delegates on Capitol Hill – and she is said by one of those close to her to be leaning towards Mr Obama. “The party Establishment is not going to turn its back on a candidate who is generating this tremendous excitement and bringing all these new voters into the political process,” an adviser said.

It sounds to me like she is thinking that if a divisive party fight goes on too long, then the party's chances in Congress would be threatened, and since Obama is currently leading, anyone thinking along those lines would be "leaning" toward him. The quote about bringing new voters into the process is interesting, but it doesn't quite amont to the same as 'we would win seats with candidate x and lose with candidate y.' Or I could just be missing the exact quote.
12206  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama picks up a slew of endorsements... on: February 15, 2008, 12:24:42 am
Insiders are now saying that Pelosi prefers Obama and is considering an endorsement. That could be devastating to Hillary as it represents the loss of her establishment support. Pelosi also presides over the largest group of Democratic superdelegates.

Also please note the main reason supposedly as to why Pelosi prefers Obama: she is far more optimistic about House races with him as the nominee. Pelosi and her advisers apparently believe that with Obama as the nominee Democrats will gain seats while with Hillary as the nominee Democrats will lose seats.

Source?

Frankly, House races don't matter much in Presidential years. No one remembers all the seats the Democrats lost in 1960.
12207  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade George W. Bush's Presidency thus far on: February 15, 2008, 12:18:18 am
Even if Bush finishes out his term with low ratings, he will still have had high ratings a little more than half of his total tenure in office. That's more than a lot of Presidents can say.

How do you come to that conclusion??  His ratings were average till 9/11, then went up were high for about 2 years, then dropped by early 04 where they hovered a little above or below 50 for a little over a year then started to drop in late winter/early spring of 05 and have sucked since.  He will have had high ratings for about 2 and a half years,  a little below and above 50 for about 1 3/4 years and crap for 3 3/4 years.

His ratings before 9/11 were over 50. So giving you all of 2004 and early 2005, then you are right, he had only 3 good years, at about 50 for a year, and then down. For some reason I remember his ratings in 2004 as being higher than they were.
12208  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: What are Hillary's chances of winning the nomination? on: February 15, 2008, 12:10:30 am
She reminds me a bit of Agamemnon's wife

If I recall correctly, that ended in a bloodbath. Did you intend to take that comparison that far?

Unless Reluctant's bloodthirsty, the tone of his post would suggest not. Smiley

Do you think Hillary's loss will cause her to go on a murderous rampage? Smiley
12209  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: What are Hillary's chances of winning the nomination? on: February 15, 2008, 12:07:29 am
Her chances are in the crapper, and a lot of it has to do with her message. It was too focused on rational reasons and not enough on inspiration and passion; not that I think she should have tried to copy Obama. IMHO, an ideal candidate has both sides of the coin.

O/c her attempts to differentiate herself from Obama were quite weak; she was unable to make him look bad without attacking him, which is the true art of going negative in politics. For example she could have run ads contrasting Obama's generalized phrases with specific issues that voters care about, and gotten a lot more mileage out of her solutions/results vs. promises message.

The sad thing is that between experience and inspiration, the latter is generally more accessible than the former; a candidate with no experience must rely on his message, while a candidate with experience can choose to include inspiration if they play their cards right. So Hillary could have... as late as New Hampshire, done more to focus on the vision she had for the nation and why she believed in the values she has fought for, and I think, done very well.

Ah well, hindsight is 20/20, but I would've expected more from the strong political team at the top of her campaign, I think a lot of people did.
12210  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade George W. Bush's Presidency thus far on: February 15, 2008, 12:01:14 am
Even if Bush finishes out his term with low ratings, he will still have had high ratings a little more than half of his total tenure in office. That's more than a lot of Presidents can say.
12211  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 10 year old shoots 9 year old sister in face over chips with dad's shotgun on: February 14, 2008, 11:58:27 pm
Shooting someone is an awfully authoritarian thing to do...
12212  General Politics / Political Essays & Deliberation / Re: Media Bias in the 2008 Election on: February 14, 2008, 11:55:51 pm
I wonder if there is an update of this.
12213  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: FL and MI on: February 14, 2008, 11:49:57 pm
My personal preference would have been to advocate the seating of the MI and FL delegations from the beginning, and for the DNC to amend the rules to do so, so that there would be no violation of the rules, if possible, and then by 2012, come up with a more complete primary system that better represents 'fairness'.

But understandably, making such an argument before Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina would have opened up attacks from other candidates on the grounds that "Hillary doesn't care what you think, she's pandering to other states, not your state." That kind of state-by-state provincial thinking is stupid, in my view (I would not expect Maryland to receive any kind of preferential treatment), but it would have had an effect in the early primaries.

She is extremely consistent in her reasoning: she sees Michigan and Florida as key states in the general election, and doesn't want the split to hurt the Democrats in these states.

I understand all that.  My point was that she didn't say anything about seating the FL/MI delegates until after IA & NH had voted because she thought saying that might hurt her in those states.  In fact, she even conceded in NH that the MI primary "wasn't going to count for anything".  But then, once she no longer had to pander to voters in IA, NH, NV, & SC, she suddenly starts talking about seating FL & MI delegates.  Nothing you said refutes that.


I understand that as well. My point was just that it was an understandable political decision, although at this point there are no good answers unless one candidate can get a clear majority without this controversy coming into play-- which at this point looks like only Obama can. The best case scenario would be that the FL and MI delegates can be seated without controversy because their seating makes no difference in the results.

If their seating would alter the outcome, in that case I would disagree with Sen. Clinton because candidates and many voters undoubtedly behaved under the assumption that they would not be, unless some other arrangement could be worked out. But in the case that they would make no difference, then changing the rules to seat them would be a good move.
12214  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Has your opinion of suburbs improved or been lowered lately? on: February 14, 2008, 11:35:04 pm
12215  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama picks up a slew of endorsements... on: February 14, 2008, 11:32:28 pm
Should I give up hope?

In the words of Dilbert, "It replaces that sad feeling with emptiness."

Which is preferable?
12216  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would You Rather Hunt With Cheney Or Drive With Kennedy? on: February 14, 2008, 11:26:18 pm
Well hunting is more interesting than driving, if I had a day off...
12217  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Holy ****, at least 2 students shot at Northern Illinois University. on: February 14, 2008, 11:25:41 pm
I have been on the faculty for over 20 years at NIU. I was not on campus today, but I know the school and this will affect the institution deeply. My heart goes out to the students, families, and my colleagues.

My condolences, muon2.
12218  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: FL and MI on: February 14, 2008, 11:23:36 pm
Amen...does that mean Levin and HRC cannot read or are too damn arrogant to care?

Obviously HRC can read, since, back in October, she defended her decision to leave her name on the ballot in MI in the face of criticism from NH Dems, saying that the election wasn't going to count anyway:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/11/AR2007101100859.html

Quote
"It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Clinton said Thursday during an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio's call-in program, "The Exchange." "But I just personally did not want to set up a situation where the Republicans are going to be campaigning between now and whenever, and then after the nomination, we have to go in and repair the damage to be ready to win Michigan in 2008."

Yeah but Mr. Morden, look at the entire interview in context.

Quote
CONCORD, N.H. -- Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton said it would be foolish to take her name off Michigan's primary ballot and sacrifice her chances against the Republican nominee.

As the only top tier Democrat remaining on Michigan ballot, Clinton is all but guaranteed to win the state's primary. Michigan is tentatively slated to send 156 delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, but national party officials have threatened to take away those delegates if the state persists in holding its primary on Jan. 15.

"It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Clinton said Thursday during an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio's call-in program, "The Exchange." "But I just personally did not want to set up a situation where the Republicans are going to be campaigning between now and whenever, and then after the nomination, we have to go in and repair the damage to be ready to win Michigan in 2008."

Speaking in the first primary state, Clinton said she understands concerns about her refusal. Rivals Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden took their names off Michigan's Jan. 15 primary ballot this week, and Michigan's hope for nominating clout all but evaporated.

Clinton's comment reflects an optimism she will win her party's nomination to face the Republican nominee in November 2008. She said any snub to Michigan could hurt her _ and all Democrats' _ chances to defeat the Republicans there.

Clinton was prompted by a caller who said, "It strikes me that this is politics as usual, where politicians say one thing and do something else."

Clinton brushed aside the comment.

"I did not believe it was fair to just say, 'Goodbye Michigan' and not take into account the fact we're going to have to win Michigan if we're going to be in the White House in January 2009," she said.

The Democratic presidential candidates already had pledged not to campaign in Michigan because the state had broken Democratic National Committee rules by scheduling its primary ahead of Feb. 5. The rules ban states from holding their 2008 contests before Feb. 5, except Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The candidates are allowed to visit Michigan to raise money and can send their spouses to campaign, but they can't run advertisements, hold rallies or do most of the other things that would help give them a leg up on their opponents.

Clinton said she wouldn't campaign there, but isn't about to hurt her own chances.

"If you look at the some of the states we have to win, the margins have been narrow. And it wasn't, in my view, meaningful, but I'm not going to say there's an absolute, total ignoring of the people in all these other states that won't come back to haunt us if we're not careful about it."

Three lengthy quotes all about the General Election. Now look at her rationale for seating the MI delegation on Jan. 25:

Quote
"I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. I know not all of my delegates will do so and I fully respect that decision. But I hope to be President of all 50 states and U.S. territories, and that we have all 50 states represented and counted at the Democratic convention.

My personal preference would have been to advocate the seating of the MI and FL delegations from the beginning, and for the DNC to amend the rules to do so, so that there would be no violation of the rules, if possible, and then by 2012, come up with a more complete primary system that better represents 'fairness'.

But understandably, making such an argument before Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina would have opened up attacks from other candidates on the grounds that "Hillary doesn't care what you think, she's pandering to other states, not your state." That kind of state-by-state provincial thinking is stupid, in my view (I would not expect Maryland to receive any kind of preferential treatment), but it would have had an effect in the early primaries.

She is extremely consistent in her reasoning: she sees Michigan and Florida as key states in the general election, and doesn't want the split to hurt the Democrats in these states.
12219  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does Al's intellectual elitism cause ignorance and strife? on: February 14, 2008, 10:45:37 pm
He's too populist to be elitist.

Or he's too populist to think he's elitist. Smiley

Seriously though, Al is a cool poster. I'd like to get to know him more in real life.
12220  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How has your opinion of the preceding poster changed sincethey1st startedpos on: February 14, 2008, 10:43:50 pm
About the same.
12221  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the National Debt be abolished? on: February 14, 2008, 10:36:21 pm
The national debt as a percentage of GDP is not out of the ordinary.
12222  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: Master of the Senate on: February 14, 2008, 10:29:38 pm
I read Caro's two other books on Johnson, The Path to Power, and Means of Ascent. At first I thought Caro was a brilliant writer, but after a while it just started to get repetitive as Caro kept emphasizing the same things over and over again. But hey- the man does his research. You can never fault him for that.
12223  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Question for the tech-savvy on: February 14, 2008, 10:10:35 pm
I think if you are using Visual Studio 2005 or above you should be able to safely remove it, but I don't really see the point. Also, .NET framework 3.5 is out now, along with trial versions of VS 2008, though I can't say I've used it.
12224  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Why did Obama run behind his state numbers in Fairfax? on: February 12, 2008, 11:24:46 pm
Beet, this is the reason why Ohio and PA are so problematic for him to win.  When this is all done, I suspect we'll look at the results and see the same things happening we saw before - I'm curious to see whether there's any movement, but I suspect it might be minor.

He needs to hedge on Texas - because of the Independent/Republican voting factor, maybe he can squeeze something out there.  The other two are hard.

Yeah but Clinton doesn't need to just win in those places... she needs to win big. I don't see something happening... frankly, if Hillary hasn't given up already, she needs to find a way to make news in a big way (without crying, o/c) or at least do something drastic.
12225  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Why did Obama run behind his state numbers in Fairfax? on: February 12, 2008, 11:19:19 pm
Which sucks.

The notable Asian population does? Tongue
[/quote]

Lol. I need a coffee. And some sleep. And a more cheerful attitude tommorrow. Smiley
Pages: 1 ... 484 485 486 487 488 [489] 490 491 492 493 494 ... 696


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines