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12201  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: What is your opinion of the potential first ladies? on: August 08, 2008, 08:51:53 pm
I'd be honest despite politics about the potential first lady.

I'm being honest when I say Michelle Obama honestly gives off that "powerful wife" vibe that I dislike. Cindy McCain is just kind of on the side lines, while Michelle is being in the spotlight.

I'll be honest and say I prefer just the opposite.


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First ladies bore me. They should be moved off the stage.

Yeah, first lady should not be used as a criteria for judging Presidential preference.
12202  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Keep your tires inflated ! on: August 08, 2008, 05:06:01 pm
The only person I know with an electric mower has his wife behind him the whole time holding the cord.

I think the reason he bought it was not to save money, but because he didn't realize it was electric (serious) and now doesn't want to take it back to the store.
12203  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Update: John Edwards Confesses to Affair but Denies Paternity on: August 08, 2008, 03:52:35 pm
Anyone care to apologize to the National Enquirer?

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

I had a conversation with my local 7-11 attendant about the national Enquirer about 2 or 3 months ago. I was depressed about Hillary losing and went there to buy a pack of cigarettes (I smoke about once every 2-3 years).

The guy works probably 9pm-9am on the week ends, for the last 8 or 9 years. I told him he could learn some software skills by picking up one of those technical guides and get a better paying job, but he said he can't even afford to buy a computer. I asked him what he did at 7-11, it seemed pretty boring, and I saw that he was reading a copy of the National Enquirer. "Is the stuff in there really accurate?"
"You'd be surprised," he told me. "The National Enquirer goes and searches out for stories that other media outlets won't touch,"
I mentioned All the President's Men and how Redford and Hoffman had to get four sources before they could publish on Watergate.
"Of course, the government's smart now, if they want to leak a story, they will give a reporter what seems to be four sources, but it will really be one source," he said.
I asked him how he judged whether the stories were accurate. He said you can usually tell by how the story is written. How outlandish is what is being said? If it's about UFO's, it's probably not accurate. If there were a lot of different people saying the same thing, it's probably true. This made sense. Although I don't read the National Enquirer, the 7-11 attendant helped me understand why people do.

Hunter is a step up from Elizabeth Edwards, no?  (Yes, the more recent pictures of Hunter are much worse, but that was during / after she was pregnant.)

Isn't that picture of Edwards from during her cancer treatment?

Probably, but older women are not hot unless they go extremely artificial. That's just how it is. Elizabeth was a smoking bun when she was younger (as is her daughter now).

It is understandable that a man with power and success would feel that he should be able to get some other ass, especially if there is no emotional attachment involved and he remains loyal financially to his wife as well.

In Edwards' case though, his sin was political, not sexual. He should have known better after the Clinton Presidency. Instead, he risked his ideals, his supporters' faith, and his country in order to satisfy his lust, and that shows his priorities, unfortunately.
12204  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: John Edwards Acts to Dispel Slanderous Suggestions as to His Sexuality? on: August 08, 2008, 02:51:36 pm
hah, what a complete fake

The nuts over at DailyKos were all over him.
12205  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John Edwards "career" is over. on: August 08, 2008, 02:47:14 pm
I don't care too much about Edwards' affair, what is more disappointing is that he ran for President while having his affair. That shows he put his personal lust ahead of the national interest, because had this affair been exposed during his Presidency, it would have damaged the national prestige.

But the most disappointing of all parts of this is that, the exact same thing occurred under President Clinton, and it shows he learned nothing from Bill's experience, like an animal.
12206  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Why is Obama outpolling Kerry so much in ND and MT? on: August 08, 2008, 01:46:46 pm
Obama is doing well in rural counties in ND with  German and Scandinavian roots. These ancestrally isolationist voting groups are drawn to Obama's early steadfast opposition to the war in Iraq.

Interesting point. They may also be turned off by McCain's hyper-aggressive foreign policy views.

So why was Hillary tanking against McCain in these states? That is the problem with the theory. The voters seem mesmerized by the messiah himself.

Hillary was on the 'pro-war' wing of the Democratic party, and people knew this, thus allowing the natural Republican leanings of the area to come out. There is also that despite being born in Illinois she is identified with New York, and there was a sort of Al Smith/Herb Hoover tension going on, whereas Midwesterner's dislike the Eastern Establishment.

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the dem campaign allowed many to forget that there are tons of americans who hate hillary's guts.

The dem campaign reminded us of nothing but.. tons of americans in the media and on the blogs who hate hillary (not so much her guts). Tongue It's generally a minority of highly vocal people who dislike her. Similar to what was faced by Lincoln, her husband, Bush in his first term and to some extent FDR.

Actually her personal approval rating is usually in the 50's, so most have a positive opinion of her.
12207  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Why is Obama outpolling Kerry so much in ND and MT? on: August 08, 2008, 01:32:01 pm
Obama is doing well in rural counties in ND with  German and Scandinavian roots. These ancestrally isolationist voting groups are drawn to Obama's early steadfast opposition to the war in Iraq.

Interesting point. They may also be turned off by McCain's hyper-aggressive foreign policy views.
12208  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Liberal Group Plans Campaign Against G.O.P. Donors on: August 08, 2008, 11:54:50 am
 Going hard after Swift Boat type attacks is a practical necessity, but with these tactics they make themselves look like silly extremists and it makes be glad Obama has sidelined some of the liberal independent groups (which is why groups like this are raising so little money and have to rely on these cheapskate tactics... which will probably backfire anyway). They do a lot more harm than good to their cause sometimes.
12209  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Keep your tires inflated ! on: August 08, 2008, 11:51:46 am
Basically what you're saying is drilling is an easier solution because the average person doesn't have to lift a finger & thus it'll more likely get done. Smiley Agreed. As I suggested a while ago, I have no problem with drilling. By all means, let's do the Hilton plan. However, I see nothing wrong with urging people to check their tires and I don't think the cost is so prohibitive that it's impossible that large numbers of people would be willing to do it.

Of course we should try to educate people about ways to save oil now.  It's cheap to do it; we have nothing to lose.  But while may be able to put a small dent into consumption through this tire checking business, but the same 500,000 cars that are underinflated now will not be the same 500,000 cars that are underinflated six months from now.

The point is, if people are educated about it and check regularly, the average number of underinflated cars would go down. It doesn't matter whether they are the same cars or not. The obesity rate can go up or down even though at any given moment, there are some people losing weight and others gaining; the recycling rate may go up or down even though at any given moment there are people learning to recycle and others deciding not to recycle. Reducing the number of underinflated cars is no harder than any other behavior that people could be educated about.

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I'm trying to be realistic about matters.  Drilling offshore isn't a perfect solution (or even a "solution"), but it'll help.  And even if the oil doesn't come online for another 510 years... you better believe we'll need that oil even worse then than we do now.

Well hopefully, whatever price it is then, we won't need it as badly as we would today at that price, because the economy will be further along in its transition away from oil. Tongue But yes since the cost is high now and not likely to fall much, I don't see a problem with drilling.

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I'm glad that you seem to favor a sensible energy policy.  I'd like to see your candidate do the same. Smiley

Obama's moved toward a compromise that would allow drilling, as is well known.. a little after myself, but nonetheless. Smiley
12210  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: So Russia and Georgia just went to war on: August 08, 2008, 11:23:47 am
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I thought the Soviet Union collapsed?

That's what we wanted you to think!

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Do they even have a reason? You can't just suddenly invade a country.

How stupid is Putin?

erm, you do realize Russia didn't start this, right?

Each side accuses the other of starting it.

But I think no one has any doubts that in a full fledged war between Russia and Georgia, Russia wins, hence the concern with what Russia will do. Technically South Ossetia was a part of the Georgian SSR, and broke away in the 1990s.
12211  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it stupid to speak of "the media" as if it's one consistent entity? on: August 08, 2008, 08:15:56 am
I'm referring more to the mindset that "the media" is completely in favor of electing one candidate (which always coincidentally happens to be the candidate other than the one the person making the claim supports.)

Besides magazines, independent newspapers and even blogs are part of the media too.

When people talk of "the media" in this way they are usually referring to the mainstream media, not Dissent Magazine or some blog. However, if you're going to do a study explicitly about politics that includes talk radio, you should include major blogs too.
12212  General Discussion / History / Re: Revenge of Presidential Survivor : Round five on: August 07, 2008, 10:31:09 pm
Hey, hey, LBJ, Vietnam was not the way.
12213  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Wait...is she serious? on: August 07, 2008, 07:11:24 pm
J.J. and Keystone, what exactly, if anything, do you think will happen?

I want it on record so we can evaluate the record in a month or so.

Or is this some amorphous thing that can be neither proved nor disproved?

Two things she could do.

1.  Royally screw up the schedule, forcing some of the things outside of prime time (shades of 1972).

This will not happen.

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2.  Have a sizable, but a minority, vote for her for President, or Vice President to make the news story be, "35-45% of the Democrats Don't want Obama/_______."

A sizeable minority will not vote for her for Vice President.

She received about 1800 delegates for President. Those delegates may be voting for her, but they will all be cheering for Obama. The correct story would be "Hillary's delegates for vote Hillary." No less, no more.
12214  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it stupid to speak of "the media" as if it's one consistent entity? on: August 07, 2008, 06:55:40 pm
Yes. This is probably the biggest fallacy committed on political websites. Pretty much every one does it.

Yes but there are similarities in coverage that go across the mainstream media outlets.
12215  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Is this guy a good guy? on: August 07, 2008, 06:51:31 pm
No.
12216  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Obama Hits Back, Too Softly For Some on: August 07, 2008, 06:49:17 pm
By Jonathan Weisman and Perry Bacon Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, August 7, 2008; Page A01

Barack Obama released a television advertisement yesterday that questions John McCain's claims to be a "maverick," and he charged in a campaign appearance that the Republican displays independence only when it suits him politically.

Obama aides said Democratic hand-wringing about polls showing that the presidential race remains tight had nothing to do with the volleys.

"We are not going to base our campaign on the concerns of so-called campaign strategists on cable TV," spokesman Bill Burton said.

But the ad and the Democrat's rhetoric in Indiana appeared to up the ante in a campaign that took a distinct turn toward the negative last week.

"The price [McCain] paid for his party's nomination has been to reverse himself on position after position," Obama told a crowd of more than 1,000 at a high school gym in Elkhart. "That doesn't meet my definition of a maverick. You can't be a maverick when politically it's important for you but not a maverick when it doesn't work for you."

The parries come more than a week after his Republican opponent launched a string of increasingly personal attacks on Obama. McCain has said that his rival would lose a war in order to win a campaign, accused him of going to a gym rather than visiting wounded troops, and, while aides asserted that he had "played the race card," hinted that Obama has a messiah complex and portrayed him as a celebrity comparable to Paris Hilton or Britney Spears. That final line of assault continued yesterday with a new McCain ad, again mocking Obama as "the biggest celebrity in the world."

Such attacks have raised worries among Democratic strategists -- haunted by John F. Kerry's 2004 run and Al Gore's razor-thin loss in 2000 -- that Obama has not responded in kind with a parallel assault on McCain's character. Interviews with nearly a dozen Democratic strategists found those concerns to be widespread, although few wished to be quoted by name while Obama's campaign is demanding unity.

"Democrats are worried," said Tad Devine, a top strategist for Kerry who thinks Obama must stay on the high road. "We've been through two very tough elections at the national level, and it's very easy to lose confidence."

Obama's latest ad may be his toughest yet, using words and images to link McCain to President Bush and concluding: "The original maverick? Or just more of the same?"

But Democratic strategists said that it is nothing like the character attacks by McCain, and that the response could be far nastier, perhaps raising McCain's ethical scrape in the Keating Five savings and loan scandal, mocking his family wealth and designer shoes, or highlighting his age. After McCain economic adviser Phil Gramm suggested that the United States has become "a nation of whiners," Democratic strategists said Obama should have immediately started an ad blitz.

"If somebody attacks you, you have to frame the attack: 'This is the same old politics, or better yet, the Bush-Rove politics,' " something Obama has done well, said one Democratic strategist. "At the same time you do that, you have to counterattack. You don't want to look like a whiner. You want to look tough."

Said another Democratic consultant: "There needs to be a negative McCain track beyond the Bush policy stuff. One of the great strengths of the Obama campaign has been to not listen to the D.C. chattering class. They have a plan and they stick to it. But clearly, the D.C. chattering class are all wringing their hands."

----------------------------------------------------------------
 liberal advertising consultant said: "There's frustration there because they're watching these childish ad campaigns, and they know exactly how to answer it, but they're powerless to do so."

Powerless, that is, because most of the independent groups that would have taken the lead in such an independent campaign have been sidelined by Obama's insistence that Democratic donors channel their money to him, rather than outside groups. Obama's efforts have succeeded in maintaining message discipline in a campaign predicated on what the senator from Illinois has called a new kind of politics.

But that has hamstrung what would have been one of the three fronts on which Democrats had hoped to wage the 2008 campaign, said Donna Brazile, Gore's 2000 campaign manager. Obama's team was able to push back quickly against McCain's character attacks, she said, and the Democratic National Committee is beginning to engage the Republican National Committee in a more cutting effort, yesterday starting an "Exxon-McCain '08" campaign that portrays the Republican as the running mate of the oil giant.

But the surrogate groups remain dormant, Brazile said, because of Obama's decision to cut them out.

"There are no independent groups. Everybody's walked off the field," said Tom Matzzie, who left MoveOn.org to form Progressive Media USA specifically to launch a massive attack against McCain. The group has since disbanded for lack of funding.

So far, said Eli Pariser, MoveOn.org's executive director, the best response to McCain's celebrity attack has come from Paris Hilton herself, who released her own ad Tuesday calling McCain "the oldest celebrity in the world, like super old."

Consultants close to Obama say the Democrat has good reason not to risk his own campaign by following McCain's lead. Because McCain has accepted public financing for the general-election campaign, he must spend all his primary campaign money before the party conventions. Obama is focusing on turning out voters, while airing a mix of positive ads and responses.

And more ads may not help, according to a Pew Research Center poll released yesterday. Nearly half of respondents -- including 51 percent of independents -- said they have been hearing too much about Obama lately, and 22 percent said all that news has made them feel less favorable toward him. On the other hand, significantly more Americans view McCain's ads as mostly negative than say the same of Obama's.

Because Obama opted out of public financing and the spending limits that come with it, he will be free to swamp McCain with television spots in the fall. If he needs to become more negative at that point, he can -- knowing that McCain would be hard pressed to reply.

Obama spokesman Burton said the campaign sees no reason to shift strategy.

"This is a classic Washington story, anonymous quotes from armchair quarterbacks with no sense of our strategy, data or plan," he said.
12217  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Both candidates want to be the Dark Knight... on: August 07, 2008, 04:55:30 pm
No surprise here Tongue
12218  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: John McCain: Maverick on: August 07, 2008, 04:54:25 pm
Hey, there's still that whitey video to look forward to, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M-kD0QdRJk

McCain needs to run the first few seconds of this clip with his video.

So that's the way forward for McCain is it? Seeking to reignite the civil wars of race that have divided America. Running ads with Wright would be playing the race card

Dave

Without those civil wars the GOP would have to find a new majority. On the other hand, without a majority they would have to find a new strategy.
12219  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Wait...is she serious? on: August 07, 2008, 04:37:03 pm
J.J. and Keystone, what exactly, if anything, do you think will happen?

I want it on record so we can evaluate the record in a month or so.

Or is this some amorphous thing that can be neither proved nor disproved?
12220  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Wait...is she serious? on: August 07, 2008, 04:28:56 pm
It's kind of like how they still call Bill "the President" and John Edwards is still a "senator". What they really mean is former but political people sometimes drop it.

The examples you gave were of honorable titles. "My opponent" doesn't fit.

Sure it does. He was her opponent in the primary. You failed to provide any context, btw, but in any conversation about the primary they would be referred to as opponents.
12221  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Wait...is she serious? on: August 07, 2008, 04:25:57 pm
It's kind of like how they still call Bill "the President" and John Edwards is still a "senator". What they really mean is former but political people sometimes drop it.
12222  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Keep your tires inflated ! on: August 07, 2008, 03:16:39 pm
I don't understand. The Auto Club's is urging people to make that change. Why would they bother to urge people to make the change if they felt there was no chance of anyone actually doing it? You can check the pressure in your tires in about 15 minutes with a pressure gauge. Most gas stations offer free air. If the savings really approach $300-$400 per year, the driving feel is improved (as it should be), and it was considered the environmentally responsible thing to do, then I don't see why a significant number of people wouldn't do it.

The problems are these:
(1) Most people are unlikely to seriously view the savings to be that high, even if you tell them flat out that they will indeed be that high.
(2) Low tire pressure is a common sign that tires need to be replaced.

I don't see how that's relevant. If a tire needs to be replaced, replace it by all means; not every low pressure tire needs to be replaced.

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(3) Low tire pressure is not a problem that faces all drivers at all times, or even faces one driver on a continuous basis.  When tire pressure gets low enough, people notice and take steps to remedy it.  In the mean time, a previously well inflated tire will likely become flat.

I don't see how this is relevant either. If low tire pressure is not a problem at the moment, then there is no problem. If the pressure is low today though, it will be at least as low tommorrow, and so on. The point is to catch the problem well before it reaches the point where it is noticeable by physical inspection. I don't see how this increases the likelihood of flat tires.

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Getting underinflated tires off the road is as logistically difficult as getting people to do an oil change every 3,000 miles.  There are plenty of excuses not to, and even though there are negative consequences to the lack of action, few people ever seriously notice them on a car-by-car basis.

I think these points are exactly illustrative of why public service announcements that remind people of the potential benefits to themselves and society of performing this maintenance are useful. The whole point is to change society's psychology about what is a "normal" thing to do to maintain your car. 40 years ago, no one thought that a surgeon general's warning would actually get nicotine addicted people to stop smoking. You would've been laughed out of the smoke-filled room, and rightly so. But lo and behold, the smoking rate began to decline at almost the same moment the warning came out. Small steps.

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It still has nothing to do with whether or not we should drill off the coasts.  It's just a sleight of hand.

Basically what you're saying is drilling is an easier solution because the average person doesn't have to lift a finger & thus it'll more likely get done. Smiley Agreed. As I suggested a while ago, I have no problem with drilling. By all means, let's do the Hilton plan. However, I see nothing wrong with urging people to check their tires and I don't think the cost is so prohibitive that it's impossible that large numbers of people would be willing to do it.
12223  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Why would anyone invest in stocks while Intrade provides so much free money? on: August 07, 2008, 03:01:18 pm
That might work out for you Duke if Citi isn't forced into a shot gun marriage by the FDIC first. These banks are very sick.

I know, and I realize that it is a huge risk. I figure that at some point, these banks will come back around. Wacovia would've been a good buy when it got down to $7 Tongue


Citicorp in the news - again!

It's just getting that out of the way earlier than other banks, Torie. Smiley

"Citigroup is the first Wall Street firm to settle federal claims amid a probe into how banks sold auction-rate securities before the $330 billion market collapsed in February. The accord may set a precedent for negotiations with firms including UBS AG, which has been named in civil complaints by Cuomo and authorities in Massachusetts."
12224  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Keep your tires inflated ! on: August 07, 2008, 02:45:08 pm
The true stupidity here is thinking that all Americans could be convinced to do something like this en masse when the relative benefit to them is almost unnoticable.

Yes, but people notice a 10 cents drop of gas at the pumps, which would be roughly equivalent. I'm sure someone will pull out the math here since I'm being lazy, but least this is something that  individuals have control over rather than bitching about how it's too expensive to drive anymore.

Regardless, no one is actually going to do it, because the cost of tuning up your car is non-zero in both money and time.  Getting any significant oil savings from people suddenly deciding to check their tires is ridiculous.  People just do not behave that way.

Some one disagrees:
...

You misunderstand the statement.  If everyone made a small change, then yes, the net result would be significant.  But people are not going to make that small change, because the work and money required for them to make that small change is too prohibitive.  Especially considering that most people wouldn't even notice a reduction in fuel efficiency due to underinflated tires.

I don't understand. The Auto Club's is urging people to make that change. Why would they bother to urge people to make the change if they felt there was no chance of anyone actually doing it? You can check the pressure in your tires in about 15 minutes with a pressure gauge. Most gas stations offer free air. If the savings really approach $300-$400 per year, the driving feel is improved (as it should be), and it was considered the environmentally responsible thing to do, then I don't see why a significant number of people wouldn't do it.
12225  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: FOX viewers overwhelmingly for McCain, CNN/MSNBC for Obama on: August 07, 2008, 01:29:31 pm
Shocking
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