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12201  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: poster (s) youve changed your mind about? on: May 27, 2005, 03:22:30 pm
A lot of people, some positive some negative, but I won't mention them
12202  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: The women on: May 27, 2005, 03:20:18 pm
If she wins, she takes McCain's seat in 2010. He's got to retire by then.

At least he'll have a more conservative replacement.

Retire? His office is just going to be moving a few blocks!
12203  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chief Justice Scalia? on: May 27, 2005, 03:06:52 pm
A Scalia elevation to Chief Justice has several advantages:

1. It does not change the ideological balance of the SCOTUS.

2. The position of CJ is not a powerful one, but more a first among equals position. You will not be strengthening a convervative court by having a conservative JC.

3. It gives the Democrats a chance to look non-partisan. They can say, "Look, we didn't filibuster this conservative Scalia; we're not really against all conservatives, just the extremes one like [insert name of Bush nominee]."

Deciding not to filibuster would be a PR advantage for the Democrats.

The question is, will Bush nominate him.

You give the Democrats way too much credit, J.J.
12204  General Discussion / History / Re: Presidential Survivor (ROUND 33) - IMMUNITY BACK UP IN THE AIR on: May 27, 2005, 02:41:06 pm
Lincoln
12205  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Republicanism or Democracy: Which is better and why? on: May 27, 2005, 02:38:32 pm
A dictatorship is a high risk. As a form of government, it can either be very good with a "benevolent" dictator that looks out for the people's good, or very, very bad with a self-interested dictator that makes others slaves to himself and generally mucks up running things. The ancients developed the system of dynastic lineage to ensure against this risk, but they couldn't eliminate it entirely.

Structurally, as a price for it's high short-run stability, a dictatorial form of government is highly unstable in the long run. Because it is so risky, it is likely at some point to encounter a leader that brings down the governmental system altogether; ala Mikhail Gorbachev.

Overall, the structural and risk problems of the dictatorial form of government mean that the costs generally outweigh the benefits in the long run.

***

A democracy is a horrid idea, and I'd never want to live in one.

***

In conclusion, vive la republique!
12206  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Overturning Roe vs Wade on: May 27, 2005, 02:28:33 pm
Quote
20% of the city's population is gay - thusly a large section of the population does not reproduce at all - and lots of parents are moving for better child rearing conditions. Fertility doesn't have squat to do with it.

You mentioned gays. But this is what the article actually says:

San Francisco's large gay population estimated at 20 percent by the city Public Health Department is thought to be one factor, though gays and lesbians in the city are increasingly raising families.

Another reason San Francisco's children are disappearing: Family housing in the city is especially scarce and expensive. A two-bedroom, 1,000-square-foot starter home is considered a bargain at $760,000.

Uhm...and? You don't think a 20% population of people who will likely never reproduce doesn't have an effect on it? Not to mention whatever other people in the city don't reproduce.

Yes it's a factor, though housing is more interesting because it affects not just San Francisco but the entire state.
12207  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you rather live in a communist country or Muslim theocracy? on: May 27, 2005, 02:26:17 pm
I'll pick almost anything over communism. At least in a theocracy I can make some money and do my nasty sh*t indoors, where the moral police aren't around.

If I was a woman though I'd have to go communist.
12208  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Worst 20th century dictator? on: May 27, 2005, 02:23:38 pm
How many people died in the European theater due to Hitler's war and genocides between 1939-1945? Compare that to the number killed by Stalin during the purges and famines.

Anyways, interestingly enough, many people still admire Stalin for his strength in lifting up Russia. Had Russia's economy not self-destructed in the 1990s, that might not be the case. But it is. Another failure of the unrestrained neoliberal "market" economics of that era.
12209  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The American Empire... on: May 27, 2005, 02:16:52 pm
What's the blue square in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean? Atlantis perhaps? Cheesy

Atlantis is an outpost in the Pegasus Galaxy.

Henry the Navigator is spinning in his grave!
12210  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Iran to Enter the WTO on: May 27, 2005, 02:15:59 pm
Iran was on the verge of a major earth-shattering counter-revolution before the hardliners regained control with the Iraq war.
12211  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chief Justice Scalia? on: May 27, 2005, 02:05:05 pm
The nomination of Scalia would ignite a firestorm of debate in this country

"firestorm" a.k.a. "compromise". We've learned what Democrats say and what Democrats mean.
12212  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Overturning Roe vs Wade on: May 27, 2005, 02:02:58 pm
Quote
20% of the city's population is gay - thusly a large section of the population does not reproduce at all - and lots of parents are moving for better child rearing conditions. Fertility doesn't have squat to do with it.

You mentioned gays. But this is what the article actually says:

San Francisco's large gay population estimated at 20 percent by the city Public Health Department is thought to be one factor, though gays and lesbians in the city are increasingly raising families.

Another reason San Francisco's children are disappearing: Family housing in the city is especially scarce and expensive. A two-bedroom, 1,000-square-foot starter home is considered a bargain at $760,000.
12213  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you consider yourself an extremist? on: May 27, 2005, 01:59:28 pm
I consider myself a moderate with regards to the political compass, but an extremist with respect to the current political establishment. So overall, I would say, yes, extremist... pushed here by events.
12214  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Why are so many here from Pennsylvania? on: May 27, 2005, 01:52:41 pm
We have very interesting politics in this state.

I'm not sure people from the other states always see it that way. Tongue

I'll admit, it's more interesting than Maryland politics. At least you guys have 1 or 2 competitive house races. That's more than can be said about most states.
12215  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Dean Says Dems Must Change Their Outreach to Blacks and Other Minorities on: May 26, 2005, 09:25:12 pm
Bob, did you see my post? The extremity of Utah is pretty glaring. Also, it's possible that religiousity and not conservatism could be what is really important.

I actually didn't see your post. It's true that Utah is a a major example of conservative virility, but that is due to the peculiarities of the Mormon religion rather than any traits of conservatism.

Actually there was a book out lately entitled "The Empty Cradle" that talks about the decline of birth rates and the relation of that with a secular society. The main study is Europe and Japan, where the phenomenon is more obvious. The Bible tells us to go and spread our seed throughout the earth. For secular people, they just see having children as a burden. Children are no longer helpful economically because of the welfare state, but they are still a burden. This is an example of the state screwing up society by screwing up the incentives. One reason why I support substantial social security reductions.

The other option though might be better which is to provide major financial incentives, for those who can afford it (middle class) towards having children, in the form of tax credits which could be used to procure child care. It's a difficult problem, but the trends seem to show that the current welfare setup in the industrial economies isn't suitable for sustaining a growing labor force in the long run without large scale immigration.
12216  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Changing ideologies and growing older... on: May 26, 2005, 09:18:16 pm
Ok, but how did they generate it? Exit poll results?

It's a test like the Political Compass test.

I think what he's asking is how they knew where every single voter stands on the political compass.

They know where everyone who took the test stands.

If it's just a total of all the people who took their test online, then it doesn't say very much about the whole country. I imagine those who would most likely be polarized economically are not likely to go online with an internet connection to take a test like that. Still interesting, but doesn't say anything conclusive.
12217  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Changing ideologies and growing older... on: May 26, 2005, 09:13:09 pm
Ok, but how did they generate it? Exit poll results?
12218  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Changing ideologies and growing older... on: May 26, 2005, 09:11:09 pm
The election was decided mainly on social issues.



Anybody know where this image is from. I can't remember.

It's from that OK Cupid political test, the one that also had the pictures of various figures.

What is the population for this graphic? Is each dot supposed to be a representative voter?
12219  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Populism on: May 26, 2005, 09:07:32 pm
I said 2007 or 2009, as in the GOP will win one or the other.

You said "midterm"

Quote
It's hilarious, though, to get your definition of fascism. I'll keep that in mind the next time you say Bush is becoming a dictator, and go ahead and skip over it.

I said the U.S. would soon become fascist. I didn't give any definition. Perhaps I was exaggerating a little, but it would definitely be very exceptional and historically unprecedented to have another GOP win in '06 without a major upheaval.

Quote
This is EXACTLY the kind of thing I'm talking about. You don't even know what a filibuster is. You need 60 votes for cloture. The GOP has 55 senators, a few of which are RINOs. Reid has 44 senators, which means there are only 56 votes left in the Senate. No cloture, no up or down vote, no Social Security reform.

THis is the same thing you said before. You know I know what cloture is, but the fact is, the debate over cloture has nothing to do with social security. The Republicans didn't make the Democrats promise they wouldn't filibuster social security reform this week as part of their "compromise". It was all about judges. You know it and I know it. The GOP can get legislation passed if it wants, and the fact is they've had the better part of 4 1/2 years to do it (heck, Bush campaigned in 2000 for social security reform) and haven't even made a proposal yet. They WON'T do it. Because they are now dominated by big-government types, that's why.

Quote
The reason the GOP can get other things done is because the Democrats haven't filibustered everything. If the parties did that, nothing would have passed since, what, the 60s?

I would like to see the GOP try and pass a social security reform bill and force the Democrats to filibuster it.
12220  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Dems Can't Keep Losing Dixie on: May 26, 2005, 09:03:16 pm
Bear in mind that voter turnout is generally lower in the South. Bush bearly won more than 30% of the electorate in many southern states in 2004, an improvement on 2000. (I can provide a map adjusted for turnout at some point...)

That's not to say that the Republicans would win had every eligable voter in the south voted, but it would be interesting to find out which sorts of people are less likely to vote, and how they could be won over.

Also remember that the "South" will always have lower voter turnout due to the dominance of Texas and Florida within the region and the high number of non-resident citizens present in both of those states. (Arizona always has the same problem).

Keep in mind, I'm not saying that the voter turnout in the "South" as a whole is not lower than certain other areas of the country (upper Midwest, for instance), there are just more ineligible citizens who live in those two big states who overbalance everything else.

Yeah but turnout is low across the board in the south, not just those couple states.

Does low turnout in the South favour the GOP? Which demographics tend to stay away from the polls? Are the socio-economic groups most likely to support the Democrats less likely to vote?

Dave

It doesn't necessarily favor either party; it's just there. Personally I don't think it would make much difference as the people who now don't vote, if they voted would probably vote in roughly the same proportions as those who already vote. But I could be wrong, who knows.
12221  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Populism on: May 26, 2005, 09:00:23 pm
Not permenant enough.

How can something be not permanent enough?
12222  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Populism on: May 26, 2005, 08:52:46 pm
No, that would be after the midterm elections in which the GOP can get enough seats and momentum to pass this thing.

Um, if you expect 4 consecutive election wins, somethign that has never happened in U.S. history outside of a Great-Depression like event, then you are exhibiting a despicable amount of hubris and America will soon be a fascist state if what you say comes true.

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This is what I get for talking to a g idiot who thinks he knows everything. Maybe you should go get a clue before you act like an arrogant prick. Reid rallied the Democrats behind him, saying they'll filibuster any change to Social Security that includes private accounts.

Arrogant prick? You are the one who started this name calling d*mbass, I am simply responding in kind. I see absolutely ZERO evidence in anything I've ever said to justify your comments, however. Too bad you have to resort to personal attacks instead of refuting the arguments, which you have yet to do. Reid can't do anything because he's only the leader of 44 senators, so I don't see what he has to do with this.

Quote
Yeah. Checking library records is far more dictatorial than censoring the press, throwing thousands of Americans in internment camps, suspending the writ of habeas corpus unconstitutionally, and placing states under martial law. Oh, and burning cities to the ground in a place you insist never left the union.

In 10 years, the war is over.

Um, the difference is that in a war, the president can do those things, but that's recognized as an expctional circumstance. Who are you to delcare the war is over in 10 years? It wont be over in 10 years just as it didn't start on 9/11/01... terrorism has been around since the 1970s and it will still be around in 10 years or 20 years or 30 years, because it is an action and not a government. This loss of civil liberties is permanent.
12223  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wingnuts come out against vaccine for cancer that kills 230,000 per year on: May 26, 2005, 08:37:13 pm
Then you're not pro-choice unless you support the choice of employers to hire or reject whoever they want.

Should I post an asinine link if some "pro-choice" liberals come out against repealing the Civil Rights Act of 1964?

You might have an argument there, but you don't, because you only care about repealing the act so much because you're racist and want to deny people the choice of using the same public facilities. It has nothing to do with libertarianism.
12224  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Populism on: May 26, 2005, 08:32:31 pm
Uh, no, more like 2007 or 2009.

Yeah, just far away enough so I'll forget to call you out on it by the time it's apparent it won't happen.

Quote
Explain to me how the Republicans could have passed it long ago when you need 60 votes to achieve cloture, and they haven't had 60 votes since the 1920s, if then? They couldn't, and you have no clue at all what you're talking about.

You are ing clueless man, how did the Republicans pass anythign? The Democrats haven't had to filibuster or even threat to filibuster and there HAS been an argument about the filibuster in case you havent noticed, but it has nothing to do with SS.

Quote
Terrorism is not a civil liberty. Prosecuting libel is not a dictatorial tactic. Sorry, your dictators are Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR.

No, Bush is more dictatorial than any of them ever were. Their wars had definite ends. This one does not.
12225  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wingnuts come out against vaccine for cancer that kills 230,000 per year on: May 26, 2005, 08:29:39 pm
So?

So, they aren't really pro-life. They just use it as a political wedge.
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