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March 27, 2015, 08:52:43 pm
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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republican Pick-Up in Pennsylvania State House on: March 25, 2015, 09:03:43 pm
Tim Kaine might not have been great, but I don't think anyone could have averted the shellacking in 2010 after the ACA was passed. And if you remember, we managed to save Senate seats in Nevada and Colorado, as well as many governorships in blue states. The further degradation in position since then is totally unacceptable. Someone has to pay for the utter disaster in 2014, and it should be DWS.

Kaine lost like 400 state legislative seats. DWS only lost like 100. We only managed to save Senate seats because the GOP nominated crazy tea party candidates. That was all luck, no credit to Kaine. DWS on the other hand presided over a successful presidential campaign cycle. In 2014, we were running with Obama with a 41% approval rating, plus the six year itch, plus the very high base in the Senate with the class of 2008 up for re-election.
27  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Adam Parkhomenko on: March 25, 2015, 08:55:48 pm
elect Hillary 2004
elect Hillary 2008
Barack/Hillary 2008
endorsed by Bill Clinton in a local Democratic primary, comes in third place.

let's hope this guy's track record continues.

I volunteered for his campaign - briefly. He's my millennial hero.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republican Pick-Up in Pennsylvania State House on: March 25, 2015, 08:31:20 pm
Debbie Wasserman Schultz's tenure at the DNC has been an unmitigated disaster as far as winning state house and state senate seats goes. Bring back Howard Dean!

Basically, this.

Lol how everyone forgets about Tim Kaine.
29  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: RIP Lee Kuan Yew on: March 25, 2015, 06:51:37 pm
Quote
Lee's achievements in Singapore had a profound effect on the Communist leadership in China, who made a major effort, especially under Deng Xiaoping, to emulate his policies of economic growth, entrepreneurship, and subtle suppression of dissent. Over 22,000 Chinese officials were sent to Singapore to study its methods.[9]

Just thought should me mentioned.

He basically created the "Chinese model" and it is being copied in a wide range of developing countries, so in that way he probably indirectly did more to prevent the spread of democracy than any other post-WW2 figure.

The success of this model in the growth of democracy reminds me of what a strong democracy China remains today.

Roll Eyes

Did you miss the word prevent?

ugh. I'm blind. Ignore this post.

IMO, Lee Kuan Yew's influence on China is overrated. Deng in the 1980s was looking to Singapore yes, but also to the United States, to Japan, to Hong Kong, to pretty much every capitalist country. But his commitment to authoritarianism was ironclad throughout and never depended on an external "model". His only model was to avoid the "chaos" of the Cultural Revolution from happening again, which he tragically associated with the student movements.

30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton Retains Strong Appeal to American Women on: March 25, 2015, 06:35:07 pm
There's no sin in voting third party, especially if one lives in a non-important jurisdiction. It's not equivalent of voting for the Republican/Democrat, etc. etc.

The only difference in opinion for people who say that is, what they really mean is that a vote is not an endorsement of the person you are voting for, but rather an expression of a preference for B instead of A. So if I vote for B, it doesn't necessarily mean that B offers me anything I consider worthwhile, only that I think the scenario of B winning would be better than A winning. Voting for C is me choosing not to contribute to the decision of the question, and I do lose my right to complain. But it's not the same as voting A either.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-PPP: Primary, GE tossup on: March 25, 2015, 12:37:09 pm
Haha, still no sign of the Murphy electability juggernaut.
32  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Dubai or Ulan Bator? on: March 24, 2015, 05:36:35 pm
As would I. Of course it would result in a nasty recession for the duration, but it may well be worth it.
33  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Dubai or Ulan Bator? on: March 24, 2015, 05:14:57 pm
even though Dubai is going to be the most important city in the world by mid-century.

Even though it has more or less nothing going for it longterm?

Okay, maybe "will be" is a bit bold. But it certainly has a better chance than any other non-Western city since industrialization. As for what it has going for it, that is clear, the same thing as any other city: wealth. Wealth will draw in people. From 2005 to 2013, the population increased by 75%. People will draw in more wealth, and so on. Just this year, it has surpassed Heathrow as the world's busiest airport.

As for the oppressive political arrangements in the city that are so upsetting, I think history has shown that an oppressed majority cannot forever be held in chains by a privileged minority.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary lose in '16, then win in '20? on: March 24, 2015, 04:51:38 pm
Honestly, I though 2008 was. I still remember the first clear sign that it wasn't - me and one other Obama volunteer were driving back from Norfolk when she suddenly said, "I hope Hillary runs in 2016." Of course I said stuff about I hope she does too, I'm a huge fan of hers, blah blah blah, which is all obviously true but I was surprised. After the 2008 primary I really thought she was done.

The next sign was an OFA event in D.C. in late 2012 or early 2013 I can't remember. At that the closing presentation I was sitting next to this middle aged white lawyer and for some reason we started talking about Mark Warner. I offhandedly mentioned that there were murmurs he was thinking of running for president in 2016. To my surprise (since Warner was and is very popular) he gave somewhat of a face and said he didn't think Warner was presidential caliber. Then I mentioned Martin O'Malley. He said, no. I said, why not? He said, he wanted Hillary to run. Also mentioned something about the first woman. Of course I had to agree and grinned.

Not too long after that I heard Adam Parkhomenko was starting this PAC called Ready for Hillary.

But if she loses in '16, I think she's really done.
35  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of Adam Parkhomenko on: March 24, 2015, 04:50:31 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Parkhomenko

FF.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 24, 2015, 11:09:22 am
Wow, if her numbers among minorities (Rubio getting 20% of the Black vote and almost tied among Hispanics) are true, that would be devastating news for Hillary.

That's only if Rubio is nominee. If anyone else is the nominee, they get only 13-14% of the black vote (same as G.W. Bush in 2004). However in 2004, G.W. Bush got 56% of the Hispanic vote. Florida Hispanics (followed by Texas Hispanics) have always been much more Republican than national Hispanics. Rubio isn't going to be the nominee, though.

Quote
Her favorability is 41/51. She has to do something about that or it will be lethal against a non-joke candidate.

Yeah, I agree. If anything, this poll is an early sign that she will not be "super-duper-favorable-and-inevitable".

Have to agree with this... additionally, she can count on another 18 months of negative news coverage, unless she somehow "resets" with the media... which is a joke given as they haven't reset in 23 years so how they will reset now is beyond comprehension. This is the biggest reason why think she shouldn't run.
37  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Dubai or Ulan Bator? on: March 24, 2015, 02:24:21 am
Of course Ulan Bator ironically wins, even though Dubai is going to be the most important city in the world by mid-century.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A competitive Clinton vs. Warren primary map on: March 24, 2015, 02:16:29 am
True, but there's also this persistent claim that Clinton is "disliked" in the African-American community but I've never seen a single poll bearing that out.
39  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: House of Cards on: March 24, 2015, 02:13:21 am
SPOILERS

I always thought Zoe Barnes was a sympathetic character. The conflict with her editor is the classic clash between "old media" and "new media", the established vs the up-and-coming. Of course, as the younger character, Zoe was going to be cast in the role of "new media". The point of her editor's firing was that it was new media that got him fired - the new media that can get someone fired just for one mistaken word that is publicized in the wrong way. House of Cards would hardly be a relevant show if it did not acknowledge the presence of social media and its significance in politics in some way.

Of course both her and Janine are portrayed as only getting stories by sleeping with those in the "inner circle." But Janine's behavior is in the past, so all we see is Zoe's- and you can hardly blame her, given the vast benefits that doing so accrued her. Her only mistake was getting too close to her subject... So the guilt of promoting negative stereotypes of women journalists rebound on the show's writers, not the characters. However, when I was watching it, I thought it was supposed to be a commentary on how power at the center is still male in nature and that trading sex for favors (of any type) does not alter that dynamic. Women who trade sex for favors from the rich and powerful are still at their mercy.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A competitive Clinton vs. Warren primary map on: March 24, 2015, 01:55:53 am
LOL. Self-proclaimed (and not so self-proclaimed) elitist liberals like to think that they head a coalition of African-Americans and working class whites against the "neoliberal" elitist Hillary, when the polls show the opposite is true. The reality is, Hillary is the one who heads such a coalition, and elitist liberals are working furiously to block it. Facts, polls, logic, and other such things, have never mattered in certain areas, however.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton Retains Strong Appeal to American Women on: March 24, 2015, 01:25:23 am
According to the latest CNN poll, 64% of American women would be proud to have Hillary as president. And yet "progressive" men like X would rather have Ted Cruz as president than her.

Are you deliberately lying about what I said or do you just lack basic reading comprehension skills?

Wait, you're getting upset at me for this characterization, when earlier, in response to this, you lol'ed?

Quote
I realize that most Atlasians have such deranged hatred of Hillary that they'd want her to lose and install President Walker or Cruz regardless of how many millions of people they hurt in the process, but if you're going to embrace that role, then kindly stop claiming the mantle of progressivism.

It't not outside the bounds of intelligent reading to take from two effortposts arguing that a Cruz presidency would have no negative ramifications for your preferred policies, but positive ramifications for your party, and stating that you would personally be amused by it, that you would prefer that outcome to the alternative. So, if it came down to Hillary vs. Cruz, which would you prefer to win? And if Hillary, why?
42  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Post & Discuss Google Ngrams on: March 23, 2015, 09:51:28 pm
Roosevelt, Reagan
43  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you think Andrew Cuomo is a sociopath? on: March 23, 2015, 09:48:28 pm
The Cuomo loathing on here is just so over the top.
44  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 23, 2015, 09:01:37 pm
Wow, what a disaster. Even more so if there is a military coup in Latin America's largest economy...
45  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Chinese gov't becomes even more repressive on: March 23, 2015, 07:00:52 pm
It's hard to say what's the broader picture. Senior level CPC power struggles are important if they are about things that will actually matter to people, and we know what those things are. I'm not sure both of those things are true in this case, however. The Jiang faction is known to be conservative, but so is the Xi administration. If anything, the Xi administration is even more conservative than the Jiang faction. But ultimately, it's what it all means in terms of policy for the average person - to say nothing of the outside world - which matters.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election night 2016:Ted Cruz declared the winner. What is your reaction? on: March 23, 2015, 06:52:30 pm
Anyway, according to Ted Cruz, college graduates will all have "four, five, six" job offers, so I'd be waiting with baited breath for this reality to come about.
47  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Nikita Khrushchev vs Leonid Brezhnev on: March 23, 2015, 05:33:33 pm
Brezhnev was responsible for a total stagnation that led to the Soviet Union collapse. He was very lucky to die before it happened, so poor Gorbachev took the blame for dissolution no one could prevent anymore. Ironic, given how much praise is Brezhnev getting in Russia, especially from unreconstructed types.

The single decision most responsible for the collapse of the USSR was the repeal of the Brezhnev doctrine.
48  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Nikita Khrushchev vs Leonid Brezhnev on: March 23, 2015, 05:30:47 pm
Khruschev, but Zyzz does have somewhat of a point. Khruschev was a bit of a buffoon. Under Brezhnev, the USSR reached military parity with the US. Both of them suffered diplomatic defeats. Khruschev lost China, but since it was for denouncing Stalin, he can be forgiven for it. Brezhnev lost Egypt, and by extension the entire Middle East, and was forced to invade Afghanistan.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which "Clinton but not Obama" states could Hillary carry in 2016? on: March 22, 2015, 09:28:37 pm
At this point, it's looking tough for her in any of these.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Hillary break 40% in West Virginia? on: March 22, 2015, 08:44:15 pm
The Democratic party has evaporated in West Virginia. In 2012, Obama got fewer voters than any Democrat since 1920 (which was the biggest landslide in American history). Not a smaller percentage share of the votes, mind you... fewer votes. In terms of share of the vote, you have to go back to 1864... during the Civil freaking War.
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