Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 24, 2016, 11:21:12 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 667
26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's nomination is the first time US politics has left me truly afraid on: July 22, 2016, 04:49:36 pm
How is it a hit piece when his words are on tape? Yes, he thought Saddam should have been taken out in '91, but he appears to endorse doing so in '02 given the situation at the time. It wasn't a ringing endorsement, but it was an explicit yes.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 04:02:46 pm
Wrong decision. This is making her look weak and indecisive, which is the LAST thing she needs to project if she wants to defeat the orange man.

How is it either weak or indecisive? There's no indication she changed her mind, or was cowed out of announcing for fear of anything, she's just delaying out of respect for the dead.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 12:47:16 pm
It has to be delayed. Not delaying it now throws away the whole news cycle.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kaine fatigue real? on: July 22, 2016, 12:09:08 pm
The ticket needs some enthusiasm and Kaine brings none. His pro-banking and TPP comments are problematic, and make it tougher for the Sanders wing of the party which includes nearly half the total and a majority of its northern whites. He's a better pick than Vilsack, Perez or Booker but that's not saying much.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Hillary let Trump get to the left of her on trade? on: July 22, 2016, 08:53:30 am
As it stands how, Trump is definitely trying to run to the left of Hillary on trade. Hillary has also come out against the TPP, criticized NAFTA, and previously opposed trade deals like CAFTA. Historically, the Democrats were more protectionist, and the Congressional Democrats still are. But there is definitely an opening, as we saw in the primary.

If you recall, Sanders won the Michigan primary by raising the right questions on the TPP and trade. Afterwards, Clinton came out hard campaigning against jobs moving overseas for the next week, and put in a decent performance (against lower expectations) in the Midwest. However, now she is dropping the ball once again.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Trump Speech on: July 22, 2016, 08:40:29 am
A-

You're seeing him continue to triangulate and adopt Democratic points, which is effective just as it was for Bill Clinton and Tony Blair in the 1990s. I've gotta hand it to the Republicans, in the last three cycles, despite the Tea Party, they've always gone with a moderate at the top of the ticket. They want to win. The 'fighting for us' theme is an old Hillary favorite (one of her themes this year was just that). Even the "I'm with you" is a crib off "She's with us" which was always the counterpart to "I'm with Her". He even said LGBTQ, talked about protecting workers who lost their jobs, and Ivanka talked about family leave. I had to remind myself which party's convention I was at. The law and order stuff was basically a freebie given to him by BLM. For these reasons it was a strong speech to frame a campaign to appeal to swing voters.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's genius. on: July 21, 2016, 11:20:32 pm
Most who whine about "political correctness" are pretty much complaining that they can't be a**holes without consequence.

Yeah, but people like the right to behave like an asshole sometimes. Like, one of the reasons I don't like open carry, is, I like feeling like I can flick someone off without worry about them pointing a gun at me.

I don't condone racist, or sexist sentiments, but I think it's gotten to the point where many citizens feel like well intentioned and good faith disagreement gets shut down as morally outrageous. And then it drives them into the arms of people like Trump, who is really dangerous. We have to try to be kinder to one another and not just assume that everyone who disagrees with you has committed some terrible sin.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Four myths in the GOP Platform on: July 21, 2016, 11:16:33 pm
The main point is that net illegal migration from Mexico has basically stopped, it plummeted after 2007 and never recovered. The whole illegal immigration problem was largely a Bush era phenom and the country just hasn't woken up to it yet.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 10:22:03 pm
bronz, my friend has a big house right smack dab in the middle of Baltimore, a block from the riots, and they never touched it. They never touched any homes, they only went after chain stores. Not to say it was a great night by any means but ordinary people have nothing to fear from Ferguson and Baltimore.

(edit: ok, literally two private residences in the entire city. not statistically significant as a danger)
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 08:27:28 pm
Not a bad Thiel speech but he spent half of it making the case for big government.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 07:36:03 pm
Based off of Trump's leaked script, he's offically backed off the ban on all Muslims.  He specifically mentions banning immigration from "countries infiltrated by terrorism".  His free trade rhetoric is also more tame.  He says he will negotiate individual deals with each nation.

So he's moved to code words.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Kaine considered so likely, a candidate for VP? on: July 21, 2016, 06:51:49 pm
Given the leaked version of Trump's speech tonight, he's attacking Clinton for being establishment. Doesn't she need someone who's perceived as anti-establishment, or at least a little colorful, like Franken? Literally the only good things I've heard about him are that he speaks Spanish and he's a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even Bernie would be a better pick than Kaine.

Who would not be part of the establishment?  All Democratic governors and Senators are by definition part of the establishment.  Obama cabinet secretaries are part of the establishment.  Franken is establishment.  Even Warren is part of the establishment.  It's not like Hillary is going to pick a businessman as veep.

What Clinton should be more worried about is the optics of holding a convention with a long list of boring, bloviating politicians speaking.  The list of DNC speakers released today is far too lengthy and needlessly full of longtime Democratic politicians.  That will only reinforce Trump's attacks on this matter.

Good point. I have to admit the other top contenders mentioned are even worse than Kaine.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why is Kaine considered so likely, a candidate for VP? on: July 21, 2016, 06:35:22 pm
Given the leaked version of Trump's speech tonight, he's attacking Clinton for being establishment. Doesn't she need someone who's perceived as anti-establishment, or at least a little colorful, like Franken? Literally the only good things I've heard about him are that he speaks Spanish and he's a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even Bernie would be a better pick than Kaine.
39  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is jfern really gone for good? on: July 21, 2016, 05:45:03 pm
Let the primary go.

Believe it or not, jfern has been a relatively good member in the past. I still recall his epic beatdown of J.J. over whether 940 heads out of 1000 coin tosses was statistically significant. I think he may have mentioned he voted for Clinton in the 2000 Senate election, so it's not like he's some deranged reddit misogynist or anything.

I think he's just frustrated at the extreme lack of power progressives have within the Democratic party. He seemed to be leaning Trump towards the end there, hopefully he comes around to realize that objectively, unified GOP control & conservative SCOTUS would be worse for progressive outcomes than the Dems holding the WH, by the election.
40  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What should be the legal driving age? on: July 21, 2016, 03:42:06 pm
You should be able to drive if you can pass all the tests and afford the insurance. I trust insurance actuaries more than arbitrary age cutoffs. That being said, the requirements for a license should be made more stringent.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Bill Clinton hearts Tim Kaine on: July 21, 2016, 03:33:15 pm
I'm still holding out hope for a shock Warren or Brown, and will continue to do so until the moment Kaine/Vilsack/Booker steps onto the stage/flashes across the news media tomorrow.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Michael Moore: "Trump is Going to Win" on: July 21, 2016, 11:47:49 am
In 2012, I recall his saying, "Get used to saying the words 'President Romney.'"

I even found the link:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/michael-moore-start-practicing-the-words-president-romney/



Michael Moore and I are like kindred spirits.
43  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Is the Republican Party a White Nationalist Party now? on: July 21, 2016, 11:39:33 am
Sure, but after years of SJW writing articles calling ethnic restaurants (and other silly, harmless crap) cultural appropriation, and now NBPP shooting up cops, let's not pretend the left hasn't been pushing racial strife. White people are perfectly reasonable if they're not feeling constantly under attack by PC culture. The chickens are coming home to roost for us.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's genius. on: July 21, 2016, 11:23:19 am
Donald Trump has gotten to where he is today, because he knows how to take positions that seem very strange and bizarre, but appeal to people outside the 'establishment' consensus. In an anti-establishment year, this is a very powerful tool. IMO- some of this controversial positions that are purportedly about one thing are actually (partially) about something else.

Immigration - Purportedly about keeping out Mexicans, but really this position is popular because after the 2012 elections, the media successfully convinced Republicans that Obama won on the backs of minorities, even though they backtracked on that later, and that minority = Democrat. Thus, it became drilled into the Republican mind that in order to win future elections, they had to control immigration at all costs. This leads to a future where political differences become totally subsumed by identity, rather than policy or ideology, which is probably not ideal, but a narrative the media helped shape even before Trump came on the scene.

Muslim ban - Purportedly about security and keeping out sharia law, this position is really in part about political correctness. About 40% of Americans support the ban, but a larger number don't like the idea that it's considered sacrosanct against discussing - they feel that in recent years, expressing the wrong thing in public means inviting a tremendous backlash. It's not just right-wingers - Jennifer Lopez, who has endorsed Hillary, received backlash for having #AllLivesMatter on her Instagram, just to name one small recent example. Many people see this sort of thing as threatening to their substantive free speech. Some people admire Trump for standing up to that, whether they agree with him or not.

Trade - Trump is running to the left here, he's getting to the left of Hillary and the Democrats. This expands his coalition. Obama's pushing TPP, and Clinton was his SoS when negotiating it, and so the optics are a disaster, even though Democrats in Congress are overwhelmingly against it.

Russia - It seems bizarre, but most Americans don't see Russia as a threat. Saying he won't defend Estonia is a perfect example of something that is unpopular with the establishment, where NATO is sacrosanct, but popular with ordinary people. No one cares about Estonia, but they do care a great deal that troops are not sent over to fight a war where they could be killed. Again, this is something that appeals to moderates, because it's liberal logic (don't fight costly wars, etc.)

Basically, the reason Trump is not 20 points down despite his personal unsuitability for the presidency is that, as someone who has been both a Republican and a Democrat, he sees the weak spots and can tap into the thinking of both parties. He knows how to appeal to both sides, even running as a Republican. In that sense, he is a sort of third way triangulator, in the vein of Tony Blair in 1997.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Ted Cruz's convention speech on: July 20, 2016, 10:44:34 pm
I think Trump knew Cruz wasn't going to endorse. He thinks he gave Cruz a noose and Cruz hung himself. The logic is, 1) Cruz being an asshole to Trump generates sympathy for Trump, 2) It pumps up Trump for his speech tomorrow night, 3) It generates more headlines and drama (Trump's gambit has been any press is good press, and so far it worked).

I have doubts as to whether Cruz is really being principled as people are saying, or if he just wants Trump to lose for personal reasons and so he can run later.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 20, 2016, 10:28:26 pm
Call be crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pence's height & look compared to Trump played a role in his selection, because Trump wanted someone he would look good next to.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 20, 2016, 10:07:36 pm
Love how SCOTUS debate is always about hot button social issues and never the dozens of pro-corporate decisions that affect people just as much.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 20, 2016, 09:36:51 am
Maybe the Republicans ditched the jobs message because when they started doing research for their speeches, they realized Obama has a pretty good record on jobs, particularly given what he started with. They don't want to remind people that there are more job openings today than there have been since the last Clinton administration.
49  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Was Reaganomics beneficial to the USA Econamy long term? on: July 18, 2016, 09:57:39 pm
Reaganomics during the actual Reagan administration was fine, even though the twin deficits (budget and trade) was what financed it. The problem is when it started getting taken to an extreme around the turn of the millennium, and all regulation was cast as bad.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WV delegate calls for Clinton to be executed on: July 18, 2016, 01:04:34 pm
What happened to John Denver's West Virginia? Sad
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 667


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines