Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 01, 2015, 07:16:40 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 604
76  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Hillary Clinton overrated or underrated on the Atlas Forum? on: January 19, 2015, 10:52:16 am
Moral character: far, far underrated
Electoral chances: far, far overrated
77  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you describe Hillary Clinton as a 'populist'? on: January 19, 2015, 10:45:49 am
Of course. She's always been a supporter of the rights of ordinary people.
That's funny. Wait, you're serious?

Of course, my friend, which is why they support her so.
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Debbie Wasserman Schultz on: January 19, 2015, 10:44:25 am
Excellent chair.
79  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you describe Hillary Clinton as a 'populist'? on: January 17, 2015, 10:34:28 pm
Of course. She's always been a supporter of the rights of ordinary people.
80  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Pope Francis on Paris Attack - "one who throws insults can expect a 'punch'" on: January 17, 2015, 03:03:23 pm
Victim blaming nonsense. Would those defending the Pope's remarks have said the same about the Sony hacks? They had it coming, no? I'm not sure even John Paul II would have been so callous. Perhaps Francis is overcompensating for being seen as a progressive Pope.
81  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Oklahoma now plurality-Republican by registration on: January 17, 2015, 02:06:48 am
The Dixiecrats are dying.

Literally and figuratively.

Elizabeth Warren is a Dixiecrat?
Is someone who moved out of Oklahoma decades ago and besides that no one is saying 30% of registered Ok democrats aren't liberals.

Fred Harris was a Dixiecrat? The Dixiecratic party wasn't even on the ballot in Oklahoma in 1948, so technically there are no Dixiecrats there.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: More Than Half Of American Schoolchildren Now Live In Poverty. on: January 17, 2015, 02:05:18 am
This proves that West Virgina, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida are the natural base of the progressive left, not the places Democrats have been jerking off to recently (Colorado, Virginia, etc.)
83  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Oklahoma now plurality-Republican by registration on: January 16, 2015, 05:11:43 pm
The Dixiecrats are dying.

Literally and figuratively.

Elizabeth Warren is a Dixiecrat?
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS to decide SSM this term on: January 16, 2015, 05:06:44 pm
I'm afraid they're going to use this as cover for some horrible decision involving economics/finance/the political system, such as striking down the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act.
85  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Was unbanning Libertas the correct decision? on: January 16, 2015, 04:45:32 pm
I think there's something appealing to the idea that the underbelly of modern society is a dark, uncontrolled place. Like, we can put a man on the moon, but we can't figure out why our kids are shooting crack. It appeals to the complexity of the human mind.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible? on: January 16, 2015, 04:42:31 pm
Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.
87  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: China vs. Vietnam on: January 16, 2015, 01:51:01 pm
Vietnam is actually pretty pro-American.

Only because it's afraid of China. If Vietnam were the size of China and China the size of Vietnam, the poll results would probably be reversed.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush, Clinton don't fare well in focus group on: January 15, 2015, 06:28:27 pm
Beet, outside of Republicans and the Atlas, I don't know anyone who "loathes [Hillary Clinton] with a seething hatred". That's ridiculous hyperbole akin to your sage analysis of the 2012 Presidential election in 2009 when you claimed that Sarah Palin could be elected over Obama or when you predicted imminent economic doom. As usual, you're prone to delusional despair that favors reading crumbs of data gleamed from comment threads rather than scientific analysis. For what it's worth, I agree that Hillary Clinton is an overrated candidate and that she has a number of weaknesses. This does not mean that "her political career is over".

You guys always cite my bad predictions, but I would say my analysis is pretty underrated on the forum. Hear me out.

Firstly, even as late as the first half of 2009, it hadn't sunk in for most people how much trouble the economy was in. So me being more negative than the consensus on the economy back then was leaning in the right direction, even if not all my literal comments were right. When I thought Palin was going to win the GOP nod, she was trading at about 20% on Intrade to do so. I was wrong about a longshot prediction- hardly surprising. Longshot predictions are expected to be wrong - a person who is only right 50% of the time, but only makes longshot predictions that consensus gives a 20% chance to be true, is still a great predictor, because they are 1.5 times better than the consensus (the same applies for my thinking Ron Paul had a realistic shot at the GOP nod).

Now let's see some of my right predictions since 2008.
(1) In November 2008, I predicted populism's emergence as a major issue. Also predicted that Obama would not be able to  be a vehicle for it (he hasn't). This essay foreshadowed everything from the rise of the Tea Party to OWS to Larry Summers' fall from grace, to the rise of Elizabeth Warren and many progressives' biggest disappointments with Obama. I wrote this just days after his initial election, when virtually everyone was basking in his glow and hardly anyone was thinking about storm clouds. So it was a far out, longshot prediction. Except for one comment from Sam Spade, it was largely ignored.

Note that the insight for this prediction was gleaned largely from looking at comments in online news stories.

(2) In this thread when only 22% of people thought the Republicans would gain more than 45 seats in the House in 2010, I said the Democrats would lose between 65 and 70 seats. My loss estimates were a bit high, but they were very close to the ultimate +63 seat pickup by the House GOP that year. Looking back, I was actually too optimistic because I expected the economy to pick up more between late 2009 and late 2010, hence why I said "if the election were held today."

(3) In early April 2010 I said, "I don't think most people realize how serious the situation is there" (in bold) about the Greek crisis. At the time, Greece was just starting to reach the headlines of financial papers. Given that it is nearly 5 years later and we are still dealing with it (see the election coming up later this month with SYRIZA in the lead) I would say that was fairly clairvoyant. Incidentally,  here is me, in early July 2010 saying that austerity wouldn't work and arguing for ECB monetary easing. Nearly five years later, the ECB has come around to that position.

(4) Here's a good illustrative example from April 2013 on the value of online comments. At the time, Quinn was leading her nearest opponent by a 2-1 margin in the polls, with or without Weiner in the race. The intensity of the opposition to her on a local newspaper's comments section was strong enough to overcome the poll, however. I was able to predict she would lose the mayoral election. A couple of comments down is a good explanation by me of why I look at online comments.

(5) I first posted about Ebola on June 16, 2014. At that time, it was only a small, local story, local meaning you would only see if it if you were looking for West African news, or in the corners of the the International section of large news aggregators. For months I raised the profile of this story, until it became headline news in the United States. In early October 2014, when I posted a domestic U.S. thread about Ebola, I was roundly mocked by many posters. The kindest poster was Ernest, who simply said that he didn't think the thread would be necessary. Just days later, the first U.S. transmission of Ebola was confirmed, and the thread developed into 5+ pages (without me responding), with the last post in December. That was when TIME declared Ebola the story of the year. I also saw, in late October, when the exponential phase of Ebola growth was coming to an end, particularly in Liberia. At that stage, very few people were willing to believe that the situation in Liberia was about to improve (they said it was just a matter of reporting breaking down).

All of these five prediction areas were longshot predictions which I was right about. They all involved deviations from conventional wisdom, the majority view, a poll, the opinion of an official, the informal judgement of which stories are important, etc. and I was right and more mainstream view was wrong.

And yet I still have a reputation here of being some sort of unrealistic pessimist, not getting credit for a decent score of correct longshot predictions (and a few wrong longshot predictions, to be sure). But someone making random longshot predictions with no skill would have a far worse record than I, and I think it would be fitting if I received some accolades.
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rick Snyder Vetoes Gun Bill on: January 15, 2015, 05:27:24 pm
Excellent move, Gov. Snyder.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Priebus: Bill Clinton's personal life is "fair game" on: January 15, 2015, 02:52:53 pm
You kinda killed your argument didn't ya....Hillary used Bubba's infidelities to bolster her campaign for the Senate and the Clinton name was put to good use in 2000.

She also ran a campaign, barnstormed through all of New York's 62 counties, did television appearances, participated in debates, educated herself on local issues, and generally did everything that any successful electoral politician does to get elected to office.

Quote
A orangutan could have run as a Democrat in 2006 and won!...no way that a Democrat wasn't going to win! Duh!

You could have said the same thing about FDR in 1932... does that mean his election was an accomplishment? As a partisan First Lady strongly identified with a former Democratic president... she defeated her opponent by a 2-1 margin and won all but 4 counties in New York, including those that voted against her husband both times.

Quote
Hillary cashed in on Clinton name again in 2008. But that Barack guy knocked her off her pedestal.

Erm, how did she cash in in 2008? She ended up with nothing. The result of 2008 should be proof that having a name doesn't get you anything by itself.

Quote
She got Secretary of State to keep her and Bill outta mischief.  So again the fact that Billary are public figures, they are fair game...duh! Her invincibility is way overrated just as it was during 2008 Democratic primaries, and never mind that glass ceiling,  Hillary has a glass jaw & that scares you Democrats,  go with good old six pack Joe, heard he's always good for a laugh.

Yes, she probably can't win, but the notion that she's never done anything herself and that any woman can get to where she is today just by marrying the right man just isn't right.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary Clinton be a better candidate for President than Obama in 2012? on: January 15, 2015, 01:01:15 pm
A weaker candidate.

First of all, she would have no incumbency advantage. The Democrats will have controlled the WH for another four years, and an ask at eight is always tougher than an ask at four. In 2012, the Tea Party was strong and Obama was running to some extent against that nutty group. The GOP has since settled down and seem at least sane in their intentions, at least according to Boehner.

I was sort of hoping for Hillary to emerge from the cocoon of the foreign service with fire in her belly, but she didn't. She avoided taking on the toughest and best part of her past (2008 campaign) in Hard Choices, a badly titled book so boring that a computer analysis of peoples e-readers found that the average reader got further into Capital in the Twenty-First Century (both books ranked at the bottom of the buy : read ratio). The book tour itself was a gaffe-filled disaster that revealed the bias of the liberal media against her is still rampant. She doesn't seem passionate about much except women's rights, which is all well and good, but the feminist vote is a tiny sliver and she's already near maxed out with us. Progressives hate her. Focus groups dislike her. Online commentators seem to loathe her with a seething hatred. Her poll numbers and favorabilities are steadily dropping. No matter what she does she'll never escape being an appendage of Bill and just another "Clinton" in the minds of many, which is some sort of unforgivable sin. Not to mention, who knows what he did in years past that could come back to haunt them both in new ways.

So in short, I see no reason why she isn't a catastrophe waiting to happen. And only she herself knows better than the rest of us why, despite all of the above, the country needs her as president in 2016...
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Liberal opinion of Bill Maher's views on Islam... on: January 15, 2015, 12:10:30 pm
All of the Abrahamic religions share a story where God commits the genocide of the entire world, so if we are talking strictly doctrine none of them is entirely humanistic.

Religion has no obligation to be compatible with liberal principles. The will of God supersedes any human constructed system, because God is God. If you really believe that God is real and that God wanted the attack on Charlie Hebdo to happen, then it was right and just that it happened - just as it was right and just that Sodom and Gomorrah happened. This is a perfectly consistent internal system.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Priebus: Bill Clinton's personal life is "fair game" on: January 15, 2015, 11:59:49 am
Hillary's political career was built off of her own efforts, not Bill. You guys can keep repeating the opposite and I'll keep refuting it all the way to 2016 (if she runs), win or lose.
94  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Male Privilege on: January 15, 2015, 11:38:46 am
I really don't think this can be answered by a simple yes/no (moderate hero answer). Do American woman on average face more disadvantages than men in many areas? Yes. Is there an inherent male "privilege" that appears in all sectors in life? I think that idea is stupid (and of course the "mind your privilege" stuff that seems to be so popular in  the US is just terrible).

That's not a moderate hero answer, that's a "no" answer.  Granted, it is moderate in the sense that it is probably in the mainstream of American political discourse, but nothing heroic about it.

Quote
As a sidenote, I would reckon that the vast majority of self-proclaimed feminists/feminist activists here still argues that Norway is a "patriarchy",

And so what? This is an ad homineim attack based on a speculation.

Quote
and uses the term all the time. Seeing as the (arguably) four most powerful people in this country are women

The most powerful person in England in 1588 was a woman- with more absolute power than the four Norwegian women combined.

Quote
, and that 2/3 of new medical  and law students in this country are women

Being a student is not a position of power. Nearly half of law students in America are women too, and have been for some years, but the ranks of partners at law firms are still dominated by men.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Grimes vs. Conway on: January 15, 2015, 11:27:09 am
Probably Grimes/Conway. I feel Conway is a better candidate for Senate and Grimes for Governor. Grimes seems like the type of candidate more comfortable in a less partisan race, while Conway has ideas that should be elevated to the national level.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Alison Lundergan Grimes on: January 14, 2015, 01:29:23 pm
Yes, she should run for something soon before she becomes yesterday's news.
97  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: opebo Week: A Celebration of His Life & Times on: January 14, 2015, 01:11:58 pm
Citing the Asian Miracle era as representative of the Thai economy is like citing 1968-80 to claim Brazil as a first world country.
98  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Disney Princess is your favorite? on: January 14, 2015, 12:49:41 pm
This thread isn't about fictional princesses created by the Walt Disney Corporation, but the Disney Princess TM, a trademark of Walt Disney Enterprises, the merchandising division of the Walt Disney Corporation. The Disney Princess TM line can be found here. The official list is:

Cinderella
Ariel
Rapunzel
Mulan
Aurora
Jasmine
Tiana
Merida
Pocahontas
Belle
Snow White



Andy Mooney, Chair Emeritus, Disney Consumer Products Division, creator of the Disney Princess TM
99  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Disney Princess is your favorite? on: January 13, 2015, 08:22:10 pm
How fitting that you forgot the only black princess.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Priebus: Bill Clinton's personal life is "fair game" on: January 13, 2015, 01:32:53 pm
If you guys can dig into Romney's personal life, then so can the GOP

Yes, attacking Ann Romney's personal life and demanding that Mitt answer for his wife's behavior is what cost him the election /s
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 604


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines