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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Are the Republicans eventually in trouble down the road? on: November 22, 2016, 10:11:16 am
Demographics is not destiny. A third of minorities voted Trump. That is enough to get the GOP through 2028.

This.

The demographics is destiny argument, besides being wrong, is morally repugnant. It implies satisfaction with a situation in which political cleavages break down along ethnic, as opposed to ideological lines. The less one's ethnicity tells you about which party you will vote for, the more post-racial we will truly become.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In retrospect, was Tim Kaine a bust of a VP pick? on: November 22, 2016, 09:49:14 am
He was the best pick out of the finalists whose names were being floated around. I noticed early on that he wasn't polling as well as Pence in favorables. Both Trump and Clinton had problems with parts of their party that they needed to consolidate. Pence helped Trump reassure traditional Republican coalition voters. Kaine arguably did not help Clinton with the progressive wing of her party.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent on: November 22, 2016, 09:35:40 am
In the past century, this has only happened four times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush), and of those four, only one of those times (Carter) did the incumbent's party control the White House for no more than four years. Food for thought.
79  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump and the press cordially engage in a "f-cking firing squad" on: November 22, 2016, 09:27:32 am
The whining looks bad for the winner, and the attempt to intimidate the press should worry even people who are not hardcore Democrats. Can you imagine Obama pulling a stunt like this?
80  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why can moderate republicans win in red states but not the other way around? on: November 21, 2016, 05:37:09 pm
Because red states are becoming the equivalent of blue cities.

I noticed Hillary's share of the vote in Mingo county, WV dropped to 14%. A county that was going Dem as recently as the early 2000s. Democrats are so alien in these places, they may as well be a foreign species. As recently as 2006/08, this was not so. A local blue dog could still make a credible appeal. In recent years, as Democrats chased their 'Obama coalition', vast swathes of the country fell off the radar. I remember in 2003, Zell Miller published a book indicting the Democratic party as 'A National Party No More'. It wasn't true then, but it's true now.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rust Belt 2020 on: November 21, 2016, 12:51:20 pm
It doesn't matter if the jobs return or not. If anything, continued decline only entrenches the bitterness of the region and their receptivity to populist messages. If voters perceive Trump as giving more respect and attention to the concerns of blue collar workers in the region, he is in good shape. The Dems don't have any high profile candidates who can really challenge this at the moment. And Trump is no fool, the man has political instincts. Right now he has a huge reservoir of trust with these people, because he took on the whole political establishment of both parties, defeated them, and got everyone to sit up and notice them. Notice, this is post-election. He has more political capital than he did on Nov. 8, when he won PA, MI, OH, IA and WI. He will be very, very tough to beat.

The Democrats think they can win back WWC by going populist in 2020. That indeed, would help them relative to 2016. However, going against them will be the fact that Trump will have incumbency advantage. The argument that he lacks the temperament to be CIC won't be available any more. Hence, even if Democrats do everything right (big if), the net result is a wash.

We got whupped this year and a little humility will be in order.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 21, 2016, 10:29:52 am
WTF:

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/800712299719704576?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Quote
Tulsi Gabbard -- Democrat, Sanders supporter and combat veteran -- is under consideration for UN ambassador, per senior Trump aide


Doesn't she have a huge hard on for Putin? That would explain it.
83  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Pro-choicers: Who would you vote for? on: November 21, 2016, 12:41:23 am
A pro-choice Republican, as they are probably moderate and sane.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post your preliminary prediction and see how close it was in 2020. on: November 21, 2016, 12:27:00 am


Trump / Pence 363
Harris / Heinrich 175
85  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should jaichind's property be seized and redistributed? on: November 19, 2016, 02:14:23 pm
He is a sad self hating Uncle Tom. But he knows a lot more about Indian elections and international politics than I do, so at least there's that. Voted no.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump supporter in WA state Senate says some protests are ‘economic terrorism' on: November 18, 2016, 12:57:40 pm
Quote
State Sen. Doug Ericksen, R-Ferndale, says he’ll introduce a bill for the upcoming legislative session that would allow felony prosecution of protesters who purposely break the law to disrupt economic activity, for example by blocking traffic or sitting on railroad tracks.

Someone finally has some sense.

I'm all for protests but this seems counterproductive.
87  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Thoughts on Senate Democrats' surprising strategy? on: November 18, 2016, 12:53:11 pm
The Democrats always end up working with new Republican presidents and end up regretting it. In 1981 they passed the Reagan tax cuts and deregulated Savings & Loans. In 2001 they passed the Bush tax cuts and voted for the Iraq war and regretted it. On the other hand, Republicans always obstruct, and it works out better. Although they didn't manage to prevent reelection, they retook Congress both times, crippled Clinton and Obama and suffered nothing in either 2nd term. So recent history is not a good indicator of Virginia's position.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Donald Trump vs. Tammy Duckworth on: November 18, 2016, 12:22:02 pm
I'd like to see this if only for Donald, "I prefer vets who don't get injured!"
89  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: DEMS ONLY: House Minority Leader on: November 18, 2016, 11:07:14 am
Wait, what is so sucky about Ryan?
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Stark Contrast Between the GOP's self-criticism after 2012 and Dems Today on: November 18, 2016, 11:05:24 am
The point is, Dems are at 100+ year lows in shares of the rural vote, share of state control, etc. We've become an over-urbanized party in a country whose political system prioritizes land. It's time to make nice with the gentry
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The Stark Contrast Between the GOP's self-criticism after 2012 and Dems Today on: November 18, 2016, 10:56:27 am
Quote
It is not an exaggeration to say that the Democratic party is in shambles as a political force. Not only did it just lose the White House to a wildly unpopular farce of a candidate despite a virtually unified establishment behind it, and not only is it the minority party in both the Senate and House, but it is getting crushed at historical record rates at the state and local levels as well. Surveying he wreckage last week, party stalwart Matthew Yglesias of Vox minced no words: "the Obama years have created a Democratic party that's essentially a smoking pile of rubble."

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/18/the-stark-contrast-between-the-gops-self-criticism-in-2012-and-the-democrats-blame-everyone-else-posture-now/
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Bel Edwards on: November 18, 2016, 12:44:27 am
Edit: Being pro-gun is another issue.

As opposed to being anti gun?


The base wants gun control, as do I. I realize it's not a winning issue, and rural Dems are smart to chase NRA endorsements, but it's an absolute must for a Democratic nominee.

What? No it's not. I'd prefer our nominee not mention gun regulation at all, or only mention background checks. I had to cringe every time HRC passionately inserted that vote losing talking point into a speech or debate.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 17, 2016, 11:42:40 pm
Clinton: 2,084 (87.03%)
Trump: 144 (6.02%)
Johnson: 74 (3.09%)
Stein: 23 (0.96%)
94  General Politics / Economics / Re: US Q3 Economic growth beats expectations, expands at a 2.9% rate on: November 17, 2016, 11:23:39 pm
But growth is the lowest since 1949! (maybe if you exclude the -8% that Obama inherited)
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is anti Trump red baiting here to stay? on: November 17, 2016, 11:20:02 pm
In the '30s Russia exported far left ideology. Now it exports far right ideology. RT staff displeased
96  General Politics / Economics / US jobless claims sink to 43 year low on: November 17, 2016, 11:11:28 pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-claims-sink-43-low-135710686.html

Quite an improvement from 8 years ago!
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe how the idiot trump will damage our nation (be specific) on: November 17, 2016, 10:34:22 pm
He has already damaged our nation immensely by showing an asshole can be elected president.

As far as his future presidency, it has barely even started so I cast no judgement. If polled today I would not disapprove. IMO too many people are projecting and speculating when in fact we should probably wait at least 4-8 weeks before a picture will begin to emerge.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has the Clinton Post-Convention Air War Been a Failure? on: November 17, 2016, 10:22:14 pm
Impossible to say the impact of the Air War since we have no hard data. For all we know it could have been incredibly effective.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has the Clinton Outreach to Millennials been a Success or Failure? on: November 17, 2016, 09:00:33 pm
Clinton was never going to be the candidate of millennials, who she lost 20-80 in the primaries.

She managed to hold better among 18-24 y.o.s than 25-29 y.o.s, and hold Trump to Romney levels among both groups; seems to put to rest the post-2012 chatter about the "youngest millennials" turning conservative.
100  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Conservative Opposition to Women in Combat: Why? on: November 17, 2016, 07:49:59 pm
So I'm not opposed to women in combat, but the thought of women POWs getting raped by our enemies bothers me. I know it could happen to men too and that also bothers me, but I feel like it would be more likely against women POWs. I still think that any woman who can pass the physical requirements should be allowed in combat, but that fear lingers in the back of my mind whenever the issue comes up.

They're far more likely to be raped by 'friendlies' than enemies.
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