Well, Obama just lost the Hispanic vote.

I didn't see the debate. What did Obama say?

Much appreciated.

Is there any particular reason for Fabius's strong showing in Aquitaine (Gironde, Landes, Pyrénées-Atlantiques) and Haute-Corse? It also seems that he did well in the Diagonale du vide.

Does Clinton owe her strong showing in west Iowa to Kerrey's endorsement?

Very interesting. I would have expected Royal to do better in Ille-et-Villaine and Aquitaine. What's with Haute-Corse?

Would you happen to have candidate maps for Fabius and DSK?

Since recently, overtime pay (pay for work beyond thirty-five hours a week) is non taxable in France. Sarkozy implemented this as part of his plan to allow the French to "work more to earn more."

The logic behind it is that it encourages employers to pay their employees overtime, curbing underemployment. However, it certainly doesn't do anything to solve the unemployment crisis: employers don't feel compelled to hire more people because they can pay a current employee overtime and avoid paying taxes.

Dammit; should have said direct elections (so '69). But '65 would be interesting as well.

1965 was the first direct election; 1958 was the first election of the Fifth Republic, held by electoral college.

I apparently need to do one day of patriotic service at the French embassy next year. Dunno what it exactly is.

You basically sit in an auditorium and watch clips that explain how the army helps Third World countries and why democracy is so important.

That sounds FUN!

Believe me, the presenters (a French military officer and a member of the French consulate) were just as bored as we were.

The only question is...why?

Oh, and is it in French or English?

It was done in French by the French government. It doesn't seem useful, but it replaced France's mandatory military service, so I guess it's a small price to pay. If you're a French and you don't attend, though, you can't pass the French Baccalaureate (which means you can't go to college in France) and you can't vote in French elections.

I'll go anyways, will make something to talk about in school.

That and, as an added benefit, the right to vote.

I apparently need to do one day of patriotic service at the French embassy next year. Dunno what it exactly is.

You basically sit in an auditorium and watch clips that explain how the army helps Third World countries and why democracy is so important.

That sounds FUN!

Believe me, the presenters (a French military officer and a member of the French consulate) were just as bored as we were.

The only question is...why?

Oh, and is it in French or English?

It was done in French by the French government. It doesn't seem useful, but it replaced France's mandatory military service, so I guess it's a small price to pay. If you're a French and you don't attend, though, you can't pass the French Baccalaureate (which means you can't go to college in France) and you can't vote in French elections.

I apparently need to do one day of patriotic service at the French embassy next year. Dunno what it exactly is.

You basically sit in an auditorium and watch clips that explain how the army helps Third World countries and why democracy is so important.

That sounds FUN!

Believe me, the presenters (a French military officer and a member of the French consulate) were just as bored as we were.

I apparently need to do one day of patriotic service at the French embassy next year. Dunno what it exactly is.

You basically sit in an auditorium and watch clips that explain how the army helps Third World countries and why democracy is so important.

Asking members if I should continue these maps or not?

Definitely.

Once again, What the hell did Mitterand do to deserve him the top spot? Why is Chirac third and not last?

Mitterrand wasn’t that great a president, but he was still the best (or the least bad) of the Fifth Republic. He brought much-needed reform to France, which had been dominated by the right for twenty-three years. He eliminated the death penalty as soon as he entered office. He supported workers’ rights (notably by implementing the thirty-nine-hour workweek). He reformed the education system by creating the ZEPs and through the Loi Jospin. And, although the right criticizes him for his nationalizations, he privatized the TV and radio channels. His FDR-like policies helped France recover from the economic depression of the 1970s (although I have to admit that, by 1981, Giscard had already stunted the depression).

Mitterrand's foreign policy was very pro-American—just like Sarkozy's is today. He stood up to the Soviet Union (you can’t say that about Giscard, whom the Soviet government backed in 1981). Mitterrand was the first French president to support negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. A dedicated Europeanist, he played an important role in the Maastricht and Schengen agreements as well as the German reunification process.

As for Chirac, he was definitely a less-than-decent president. His domestic policy was horrible. However, his foreign policy makes him third. He stood against the war in Iraq at a time when even the Democrats backed Bush. He continued Mitterrand’s foreign policy in Europe (through the European Constitution) and in the ignored parts of Africa and the Middle East.

Why is Chirac seventh-to-last on your list? He didn’t do much to help France (at least in terms of domestic policy), but wasn’t he at least better than Pompidou? And how can you place him behind Auriol and Coty, who were only figureheads?

1. Mitterrand
2. Giscard
3. Chirac
4. De Gaulle
5. Pompidou

It's too early to rate Sarkozy, but, for now, I would place him between De Gaulle and Pompidou.

Any one know in which circonscription in Haute-Saone would the town of Gray be?

It's where the family name originates, apparently

Dave

According to the Interior Ministry's website, Gray is in 1e Haute-Saône. They gave the UMP candidate 53.12% of the vote and the Socialist candidate 25.04%, with the Communist candidate in distant third at 5.56%.

All thee hath to do is predict the winner in each of the following seats (list nicked from Le Monde)...

Bordeaux Centre (2nd Gironde)

Juppé (UMP)

Paris 8th

Klarsfeld (UMP)

Grenoble I, II, IV (1st Isere)

Fioraso (PS)

Toulouse I, IV, V, VII (1st Haute-Garonne)

Moudenc (NC-MP)

Henin-Beaumont (14th Pas-de-Calais)

Facon (PS)

Pau Est, Sud (2nd Pyrenees-Atlantiques)

Bayrou (MD)

Oloron-Sainte-Marie (4th Pyrenees-Atlantiques)

Lucbereilh (UMP)

Creteil Nord (1st Val-de-Marne)

Plagnol (UMP)

Sarcelles Nord-Est (8th Val-d'Oise)

Strauss-Kahn (PS)

Chalon-sur-Saone Sud (6th Saone-et-Loire)

Danjean (UMP)

Digne (1st Alpes-de-Haute Provence)

Barreille (UMP)

Morsang-sur-Orge (10th Essonne)

Dray (PS)

Belfort Ouest (2nd TdB)

Zumkeller (UMP)

Rombas (8th Moselle)

Missoffe (UMP)

Le-Blanc-Mesnil (4th Seine-St-Denis)

Buffet (PCF)

Amiens Nord (1st Somme)

Gremetz (DVG)

Paris 1st

Legaret (UMP)

Paris 11th

Cochet (Verts)

Yes/Yes/Yes

This is my best guess:



Clinton: 298
Romney: 240

Clinton wins fairly easily.

Anyone know where on the census results it has poverty rate by county by state, or do you have to look up each actual county?

You can find the results by county by state here.

Internal server error from directly linking to a CGI page.  You'll have to give directions there, but that would be awesome to see.

Try going to the US Census Bureau website's SAIPE (Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates) page. Then click on "State and county data."

If the link doesn't work, you can go to census.gov, search for "SAIPE" and click on "SAIPE Main Page" (the third link).

Anyone know where on the census results it has poverty rate by county by state, or do you have to look up each actual county?

You can find the results by county by state here.

Here's New York (data from the US Census Bureau Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2004):



The state average is 14.5%. The richest county is Putnam (4.5%), and the poorest is the Bronx (28.2%).

Staten island should be yellow 10.0%

Right. Staten Island should be yellow rather than red, because its poverty rate is at 10.2%. Sorry about that.

12.5% of registered voters, not of voters that participated.

Oh, okay. Thanks.

[4e Seine-Saint-Denis:]

a) 4th Seine-St-Denis (Le Blanc-Mesnil)

UMP, PCF

b) 2nd Paris

UMP, PS

c) 14th Pas-de-Calais (Henin-Beaumont)

PS, FN

d) 4th Bouches-du-Rhone (ie; northern Marseille)

PS, UMP (end of an era, that)

e) 2nd Pyrenees-Atlantiques (Pau-Nay)

MD, UMP, PS

According to Election-politique, all candidates with at least 12.50% are eligible for the second round. This includes:
4e Seine-Saint-Denis: Ramos (PS) with 15.55%
2e Paris: Saint-Etienne (MD) with 16.16%
14e Pas-de-Calais: Urbaniak (MD) with 13.24% and Ramdani (UMP) with 12.95%
4e Bouches-du-Rhône: Dutoit (PCF) with 18.96%
2e Pyrénées-Atlantiques: Cabanne (PS) with 23.32% (you already listed her).

Any rumours? Oh, and when will the results start coming in? About an hour after the polls close, or before or after then?

I think the results should be in at 8:00 PM local time, when the polls close.

You all know how this sort of thing works by now

More fun will be had with the second round, obviously, but...

1. Predict the share of the popular vote for the following parties:

a) UMP
b) PS
c) MD
d) FN
e) PCF
f) Verts
g) Others

UMP:   42%
PS:   28%
MD:   9%
FN:   5%
PCF:   4%
Verts:   3%
Others:   9%

2. Which constituency will give each of the following their highest share of the vote?

a) UMP
b) PS
c) MD
d) FN
e) PCF
f) Verts

UMP: Chantilly-Senlis (4e Oise) with Eric Woerth (incumbent)

PS: Elbeuf (4e Seine-Maritime) with Laurent Fabius (incumbent)

MD: Lyon (1e Rhône) with Dominique Perben (incumbent)

UDF: Bernay-Pont-Audemer (3e Eure) with Hervé Morin (incumbent)

FN: Hénin-Beaumont (14e Pas-de-Calais) with Marine Le Pen

PCF: Saint-Denis (2e Seine-Saint-Denis) with Patrick Braouezec (incumbent)

Verts: Talence (3e Gironde) with Noël Mamère (incumbent)

3. How many candidates will win (ie; poll over 50%) in the first round?

I doubt than more than ten candidates will poll over 50% in the first round; most, if not all, of them will be UMP, with maybe a few Socialists.

4. How many incumbents will fail to reach the second round?

In Aubusson (2e Creuse), Alain Grivet (MD) could potentially siphon off enough votes from the incumbent Georges Sarre (UMP).

Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC) could retake Belfort (2e Territoire-de-Belfort) from the incumbent Michel Zumkeller (UMP), but Zumkeller will most likely reach the second round.

Marine Le Pen is likely to poll well in Hénin-Beaumont (14e Pas-de-Calais), but this wouldn’t affect the incumbent Albert Facon (PS) in the first round.

Overall, I think most of the incumbents are likely to reach the second round.

5. Which parties will reach the second round in the following, semi-randomly (I had a list and used dice), constituencies:

a) 4th Seine-St-Denis (Le Blanc-Mesnil)

Marie-George Buffet (PCF, incumbent) will face Thierry Meignen (UMP).

b) 2nd Paris

Jean Tibéri (UMP, incumbent) will face Lyne Cohen-Solal (PS) and (possibly) Christian Saint-Etienne (MD).

c) 14th Pas-de-Calais (Henin-Beaumont)

Albert Facon (PS, incumbent) will face Nesredine Ramdani (UMP) and (possibly) Marine Le Pen (FN).

d) 4th Bouches-du-Rhone (ie; northern Marseille)

Frédéric Dutoit (PCF, incumbent) will face Henri Jibrayel (PS). One of the right-wing candidates could also make it to the second round, maybe Bernard Susini or Raoul Cayol (both UMP).

e) 2nd Pyrenees-Atlantiques (Pau-Nay)

François Bayrou (MD, incumbent) will face Marie-Pierre Cabanne (PS) and Jean-Pierre Mariné (UMP).

Here's New York (data from the US Census Bureau Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2004):



The state average is 14.5%. The richest county is Putnam (4.5%), and the poorest is the Bronx (28.2%).