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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Is With Utah This Year? on: August 19, 2016, 03:23:03 pm
Muh Mormons

Muh-rmons!! Cheesy
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the US Olympic team would vote? on: August 19, 2016, 01:28:23 am
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Ryan Lochte a Ron Paul supporter in 2012? Cheesy
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why has Bill Clinton been so reluctant to criticize Donald Trump? on: August 18, 2016, 02:33:09 pm
Muh Donald Trumpz a plantz!! Lolz Tongue
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/Survey Monkey National: Clinton +9 (Clinton +6, 4 way) on: August 16, 2016, 05:07:18 pm
Good momentum for the G Jay! Hope the other polls coming out soon can help him go up a bit! Smiley

11% is pretty decent, he's knocking on the door. Is this one of the "big 5" polls he needs to get 15% in?

I thought the thread that was created the other day cleared it up. You know, the one where the CPD chooses which 5 pollsters AND within those pollsters a candidate would need to be averaging at about 15% in each one. Sad
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/Survey Monkey National: Clinton +9 (Clinton +6, 4 way) on: August 16, 2016, 04:36:03 pm
Good momentum for the G Jay! Hope the other polls coming out soon can help him go up a bit! Smiley
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Debate commission: plan for a third podium! on: August 10, 2016, 09:45:07 pm
Fahrenkopf (the chairman of the commission) has suggested that coming within the margin of error might be sufficient for Johnson, though who knows how much control he actually exercises over the commission.

I read that, But, considering that the MOE is usually 3%, would the CPD give Johnson a pass if he's polling at, say, 12.5% average in the CNN, CBS, NBC, Fox and Bloomberg polls, for example?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Debate commission: plan for a third podium! on: August 10, 2016, 09:33:54 pm
I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

OK, so let me see if I got this. In order for Johnson to make the debate, he'd need to average 15% in polls from, let's say, CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS and Bloomberg? If he can't average 15% in those five pollsters, he's toast then? Sad
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Front page New York Daily News calls for Trump to end his campaign on: August 10, 2016, 04:09:36 pm
I doubt it. I can see major GOP talking heads, billionaires and influential people going 3 ways: for Johnson, for McMuffin or just not get involved.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Debate commission: plan for a third podium! on: August 10, 2016, 04:06:09 pm
I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Debate commission: plan for a third podium! on: August 10, 2016, 02:00:39 am
Nothing set in stone, but they are getting ready for the contingency that Johnson gets near 15%...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806

Well, I must say that I've been crunching numbers and have looked at Gary's national polling numbers, 3-way and 4-way, and it comes down to the following:

If you add the margin of error of each poll to Gary's numbers, there are 8 which show him with 15% or more!

These are the following polls confirming this:

1) A 4-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

2) A 3-way IBD/TPP poll from 7/29-8/24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3.4%, giving him 15.4%

3) A 3-way FOX News poll from 7/31-8/2 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

4) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/22-24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 16%

5) A 3-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

6) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/8-12 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

7) A 3-way CBS News poll from 6/9-13 shows Gary got 11%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 15%

Cool A 3-way FOX News poll from 6/5-8 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

Now, this is all mere speculation after one of the CPD members said there could be some wiggling room for Gary to debate. They may or may not consider the MOE from the polls if it's enough to give Gary an edge. Plus 7 of these 8 polls I just mentioned are big pollsters!
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Evan mcmullin on: August 09, 2016, 10:11:14 pm
Egg McMuffin for the win!! Free Egg McMuffins for all!! Cheesy
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney, McCain, Bush, other major Republicans Set to Endorse Gary Johnson on: August 08, 2016, 02:04:56 am
This is fake.  Nobody is reporting on this.  If there really was an event being held where the three highest-profile names in the Republican Party were going to endorse a third party, it would be on the front page of CNN, not in the Santa Monica Observer.

LOL! Next time I'll quote God Like Productions or Info Wars then! Cheesy
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Rumor:Romney, McCain, Bush, other major Republicans Set to Endorse Gary Johnson on: August 08, 2016, 01:43:36 am
http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/08/06/news/romney-mccain-bush-other-major-republicans-set-to-endorse-libertarian-gary-johnson/1713.html

Quote
Rebel Republicans Will Hold an Event in late August to Endorse Johnson & Weld over Clinton & Trump
Compartir
August 7, 2016


Mitt Romney, George Bush 41 and George Bush 43, as well as other mainstream Republican party figures, are set to endorse Libertarian Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson next week, say sources within the "Never Trump" movement and other disaffected Republicans.


Bush 43 and Romney 2008 veteran Dan Senor said he will endorse the Libertarians "Reluctantly. He also called for Johnson to appear on the debate stage with Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Senor said Trump lacks the personal integrity to be president.
.

Game changer?? Or will it amount to nothing at the end of the day?? :O
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the electoral college look more like Clinton 92 or Obama 2012? on: August 07, 2016, 11:22:56 pm
Depends on the Johnson effect. If he gets into at least 1 debate and he starts polling in the 20s, you could get a Nixon 68 map. It also depends on how the Trump camp tries to bounce back.



15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV? on: August 07, 2016, 10:36:21 pm
I don't see how third party numbers don't collapse without debate access. And that access is looking extremely unlikely right now unless Johnson can magically gain 5% over the next month to start averaging what he needs. He isn't getting even 5% without a national stage.

Pretty much this. Johnson is starting to get endorsements from sitting Congress members and is starting to get some dough. He needs to hit the campaign trail and hit the big and small states. Focus on trying to sway undecideds in the big safe D/R states to have his poll numbers go up while campaigning hard in small states like Utah to try and make a dent in the EV. I know President Forever is no reflection of political reality but its the strategy I'd use.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV? on: August 07, 2016, 08:05:06 pm
It all depends on his current polling numbers. If he gets into all 3 debates and he has a wave of bucks and endorsements funneling his way, he can be in the 20's and could swing the election to the House and get many EV. If he doesn't get into the debates, he'll end up with numbers between Anderson 1980 and Perot 1996 numbers. Smiley
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson make the debates? on: August 04, 2016, 12:04:36 am
If Gary can hit over 15% in many polls, even if it's not the 5 required by the CPD, I can see him being invited to the first debate at least. Wink
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is dropped... on: August 03, 2016, 11:57:01 pm
Trump is going to "win" even if he loses. That is why he has started talking about the system being rigged and polls being phony. If he loses in November, he will just claim that Clinton stole the election and claim that the corrupt system kept him from being President.

So, basically, be the American version of Andrés López Obrador? You know the ex-Mexican Presidential candidate that didn't give up and had his supporters flood the streets of DF?? :O
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Georgia Republican says he might withhold electoral college vote from Trump on: August 03, 2016, 11:47:56 pm
Agreed. I'm no Trump fan (I think he's a walking, talking, orange threat to our nation's wellbeing) but faithless electors should be illegal. And the electoral college should be made proportional.

I agree on the proportional concept of electoral votes as long as it's not done by who wins each congressional district, because that would pave the way for someone winning 60% in a state and getting 1/3 of the EVs.

As far as this situation it should absolutely be illegal, but it also shows the flaws of the electoral college--it is realistically possible that if the election is close enough, a small group of people could deny the winner their victory--EV's should be more of a point system rather than leaving it up to actual people who may or may not follow the rules.

I'm in favor of allocating electoral votes proportionally. A third party candidate can get 15% in many states and will come out with almost 80 electoral votes. Smiley
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is dropped... on: August 03, 2016, 11:40:30 pm
I'm wondering what will happen now!

Could many beltway Republicans throw their weight behind Gary Johnson, for example? Maybe we could have another 1912 Presidential election where the GOP is split in 2 (although there are some elected Republican officials who are saying they'll back Hillary, for example) o-O
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET) on: March 08, 2016, 10:43:42 pm
Sanders ahead in Clinton County.

Ohhh, the irony!!! Cheesy
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: No candidate can get on the ballot for all 50 states as an indepedent on: March 03, 2016, 01:07:19 pm
I wonder if a losing presidential candidate from either party can run as a running mate for an independent or third party ticket!? Cheesy
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would this hypothetical scenario turn out? on: March 03, 2016, 11:16:33 am
I have no idea what would happen.

Maybe jump the trump train and vote for the liberarían party this once!?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins on March 5th (GOP)? on: March 02, 2016, 12:36:47 pm
Krumpf wins all 4!! Cheesy
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 10:30:19 pm
Bernie is expected to win some "bernie friendly" states coming up. But the ones voting in a few weeks seem to be hard. I think if he can win 2 and make the other 2 competitive, ir would be a good night for him! Smiley
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