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October 25, 2014, 08:06:59 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread (US Domestic) on: October 24, 2014, 04:27:37 pm
Thanks Obama

You joke, but....
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-obama-should-resign-ebola

So far the only people to contract Ebola in USA are health care workers. Even the fiance of Thomas Eric Duncan is out quarantine. If she didn't get it, i don't see how anyone who isn't working with an infected patient has anything to worry about.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz staffer trolls hard on Twitter on: October 24, 2014, 04:10:19 pm
Another thing that wasn't let into this country before Obamacare....



Thanks Obama!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz writes a "2015" (cough 2016) platform on: October 24, 2014, 04:05:04 pm
Well Cruz's agenda is moderated a bit from the laundry list of hardcore conservative wet dreams like:
- pull out of UN
- human life amendment
- school prayer amendment
- revoke 16th (income tax) and 17th (direct senator elections) amendments
- Abolish IRS, EPA, Dept. of Education, HUD, Commerce
- Revoke all corporate taxes
- Privatize Social Security and Medicare
- Cut funding for Amtrak, NPR, Arts, science R&D (especially anything about climate)
- Cut all foreign aid (except Israel)

There is all sorts of crazy right wing red meat he isn't throwing. So far the only bone he has thrown is the Audit the Fed thing and as I noted he has replaced the Marriage Amendment (making SSM illegal everywhere) with the watered down version to let states decide
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 24, 2014, 03:34:29 pm
There is NO way he wins.  The evangelical crowd are influential in the GOP, but they're still a small minority.

The evangelical crowd is a small minority of all voters, but they are a significant part of the GOP. Exit polls in 2012 showed 19% of all voters were White Born Again AND voted for Romney, compare that to 32% of self-identified Republicans and you actually have 2/3s of Republican voters being White Evangelical. If you drill down more to Protestants who attend church weekly and/or those who think abortion should be illegal in ALL cases (including Rape) then you get to maybe 1/3 of GOP voters, which is still a significant portion. Remember Huckabee won IA with 34% of the vote in 2008.

Huckabee would stand a reasonable chance of winning assuming that Perry and/or Cruz is not able to cut too much into his base in the same way that Thompson did back in 04 (which probably cost him from winning SC, which was the turning point for McCain)
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 24, 2014, 02:24:22 pm
I think Huck may run just to make a statement. He may not want to be president, but he wants to give the evangelical wing a stronger voice in the party. He has been whining about how they are being taken for granted for a while. The recent silence from most in the party after SCOTUS defacto made SSM legal in most of the country pissed him off.  Hey loves making money on FOX but he can afford to take a year off and build his brand, and the money from Adelson wont hurt. If he has to throw in some lines about how great Israel is to his basic stump speech to get the Adelson cash, I'm sure he would be happy to do it.

If Huck gets in, Santorum might as well stay home as he was Huckabee-lite and a Catholic to boot.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: District Judge Upholds Puerto Rico gay marriage ban on: October 23, 2014, 06:02:25 pm
Interestingly the judge is a Carter appointee, so he is first Dem appointee to uphold a ban. The LA judge who upheld the ban was a Reagan appointee. 

 But I doubt this survives at the first circuit.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Arizona, Georgia, Montana: Which ones could Hillary carry? on: October 23, 2014, 05:48:41 pm
Whenever one of these 'could' posts goes up the obvious answer is yes she could win them all, and all the ones in the previous Clinton but no Obama thread. The real question is, which states should Hillary go after with time/money/resources. She can't go after all the states her husband won, but a couple of states beyond the Obama map makes sense. The Dems seem to be putting a lot of resources into GA for 2014 so that is one to watch. MO and AR are also possibilities. But I would say pick one or two 'expand' states and focus and get out quick if you get no traction.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 23, 2014, 05:32:54 pm
The GOP have an EV path that is very doable, it is the states Bush won at least once (minus NM and NV). So Romney + FL, OH, VA, CO, IA,  NH gets you to 285. They should spend 90%+ of their cash on these states (including NC and any other Romney states the Dems go after)

This path allows some buffer with a loss of one or even two small states, but FL and OH are 'must win' in this scenario (realistically it is hard to see any GOP victory without both). Don't get distracted by PA, MI, WI, NV or other so-called battlegrounds unless you really see some traction in any of them (or have a favorite son, like Romney did with Ryan in WI).

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 07:15:26 pm
Obama's 39% with whites is actually quite low. It is worse than both Gore and Kerry. It is even worse than Dukakis. As I have noted here before, if Hillary just gets Kerry's numbers with whites and non-whites, then it goes from a modest GOP victory to essentially tied PV with winner coming down to just how many whites show up vs. non-whites. And bear in mind that Bush in 04 got record high numbers with Latinos and Asians (around 44%) by pushing comprehensive immigration reform and even got 11% of blacks (matching his Dad's numbers in 1988).

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Our President continues to be the best on: October 22, 2014, 11:59:27 am
Drudge Report: Obama cheats on Michelle, caught with girl in Chicago Voting Booth!

Drudgereally  actually did have “Man warns president not to touch his girlfriend"
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz writes a "2015" (cough 2016) platform on: October 22, 2014, 11:53:44 am
Seems to just be GOP greatest hits. Drilll Baby Drill, Tax Cuts, Border Wall, More Mideast War, and of course Kill Obamacare.

Interesting how he threw in the old 'stop appointing activist judges' thing as a nod to the Huckabee wing. He also has proposed new constitutional amendment barring judges from overturning SSM bans (good luck getting 38 states approving that). But it shows even Cruz giving up on banning SSM nationwide, which was actually still part of GOP 2012 platform.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona gay marriage ban struck down on: October 17, 2014, 12:27:42 pm
Sedwick said in his ruling that because the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals had already ruled against gay marriage bans in Nevada and Idaho, he did not need to give a lengthy reason

They are just phoning it in at this point. I look forward to the next judge's ruling

Quote
"The state ban is overturned because reasons"
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 07:31:45 pm
It could be the spark for a new space race, ironically back to the moon. The Russians, Chinese and Indian space agencies have all talked mining Helium-3 on the moon.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 05:04:29 pm
Fusion could also lead to commercializing the moon due to Helium 3.  This could also become an international fight over land mineral rights on the moon. Plus environmentalists won't like strip mining moon
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush versus Mitt Romney on: October 15, 2014, 03:43:30 pm
The scenario where Romney runs is if by Aug/Sept 2015 there is no viable establishment candidate and he feels it is his duty to run to save the party.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment GOP candidate will be 2016's Rudy Giuliani/Jon Hunstman? on: October 15, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
Jeb has not been in politics for a long time really and isn't ready for today's GOP. His recent flop in NC only shows how he is out of step with the party.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC not issuing SSM licsenses on: October 10, 2014, 02:49:11 pm


I have been thinking about that lately. Maybe not one of the governors, but some county clerks or other local officials in the deep south refusing to comply and forcing federal marshals to intervene.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SSM bans struck down in Nevada, Idaho on: October 09, 2014, 10:59:11 am
The 5th circuit seems to be in no hurry to take up the matter. Maybe they were hoping SCOTUS would have picked up one of the other appeals and so they wouldn't have to deal with it. They may be conservative but no one likes being overturned and they probably dont want to be the only appeals court to rule in favor of a SSM ban, only to be quickly overturned anyway. Every appeals court judge is hoping to be on the SCOTUS one day and that kind of vote will not help in the Senate, especially 5 or 10 years from now.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wealthy Americans giving less to charity, non-wealthy giving more on: October 07, 2014, 07:36:39 pm
This is proof that we must give the job creators more tax relief
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb takes federalist position on gay marriage on: October 06, 2014, 03:24:50 pm
Webb certainly sounded like a candidate in MTP on Sunday, especially the way he pivoted questions about foreign policy to talk about domestic issues and the middle class.

If he runs in the Dem primary he will fully evolve to the accepted SSM position within the Dem party (and with 60% of the country). He isn't an idiot.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul on drugs.....and gay marriage on: October 05, 2014, 09:13:15 pm
so he is ok with some states making bestiality legal too?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Economy as issue in 2016 - will it be better, worse or same? on: October 03, 2014, 09:33:28 pm
So today the unemployment rate hit 5.9%


Obviously this isn't the only indicator, but the economy continues to recover (albeit slowly). So do folks expect things to continue to get better between now and Nov 2016?.

Will the economy be the top issue or even the number two issue in 2016?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Graham exploring 2016 Presidential bid. on: October 03, 2014, 01:38:10 pm
I do declare, this news is giving me a case of the vapors ...~faints~
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W Bush: Jeb wants to be President on: October 02, 2014, 10:50:52 pm
Of course he wants to be president. The question is does he want to run for president.

With today's GOP, it is hard to see him relishing the primary fight. Maybe if he were an anointed frontrunner with limited opposition like his brother had in 2000, but he would be in for a total slog.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Gov. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) on: October 01, 2014, 12:18:43 pm
I think I was the first here to talk up Pence, he is going to be a strong candidate both in the primaries and general. If you assume the GOP want a governor, then just look at the choices
http://www.rga.org/homepage/governors/
By process of elimination, Pence ends up their best chance.

Still think absent any major bad shifts in the economy or huge revelations/gaffes, that Hillary would beat him, but he would put up a good fight. I could see a Pence/Rubio ticket picking up the Romney states +OH, FL and IA (netting 259). Maybe throw in CO, and then Hillary squeaks by at 270 v 268. 
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