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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Here's a handy list of what's been crossing the US border from Mexico recently on: August 24, 2014, 07:09:04 pm
Ebola the size of cantaloupes!
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How horrible would Gov. Perry do? on: August 24, 2014, 04:16:26 pm
Against Hillary? Epic landslide. But I still believe that by this time next year he will be a top tier candidate for the GOP nomination, assuming he can perform well in a couple of debates.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 23, 2014, 04:02:51 pm
None of that matters though. The campaign against ISIS is nothing like the war in Kosovo. The Bosnians were not threatening to kill American civilians. Plus it is post 9/11 and these guys are a radical offshoot of Al Queda.  So my point is that ISIS has brought Iraq back as a political issue and I don't see how it wont play a role in the debates.

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: August 23, 2014, 03:28:19 pm
Interview with Mike Pence:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/08/22/indiana-gov-mike-pence-on-iraq-immigration-and-2016/

Quote
On whether the 2016 Republican presidential nominee should be a governor, as opposed to a member of Congress:

“I’m more convinced than ever that the cure [for what ails] this country will come more from our state capitals than it comes from the nation’s capital. … It would be a mistake for our party to continue to look to Washington, D.C., as the place where we’re going to solve many of the intractable problems facing our country.”



Continue to believe that he will run and do well, the "more convinced than ever" thing is interesting. I wonder if he has been getting behind the scenes support from some establishment types.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 23, 2014, 03:24:52 pm
By next summer when the campaign will begin we may already be bombing in Syria
Quote
The United States is considering taking the fight against Islamic State militants into Syria after days of airstrikes against the group in Iraq and the beheading of an American journalist, the White House signaled on Friday.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/22/us-islamic-state-syria_n_5701415.html

The Obama admin may make it difficult for any of the GOPers to take a more hawkish position without calling for combat troops on the ground, the one thing Obama continues to rule out (for now)
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Scott Walker still run in 2016 if he loses in 2014? on: August 23, 2014, 03:16:34 pm
If things start to go badly for Walker I wonder how hard Chris Christe (as head of the RGA) will fight to help him keep his job.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: August 23, 2014, 03:13:53 pm
If nothing else, the whiff of scandal around Walker should cost him a couple points in his race for gov, assuming the Burke campaign plays it right. And the election is already close so this could make the difference, and if he loses in Nov 2014 I dont think he will be in a position to announce a presidential run just a few months later.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight: "The Rand Paul Will Win Over Young Voters Myth" on: August 22, 2014, 09:28:20 pm
Let's face it, Rand Paul's young fans are primarily white males, who are just a fraction of the Youth vote. The younger the demo, the more of them are non-whites.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 22, 2014, 09:17:33 pm
Interesting comment from Rand Paul
Quote
“If you wanna see a transformational election, let the Democrats put forward a war hawk like Hillary Clinton, and you’ll see a transformation like you’ve never seen,”
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/rand-paul-warns-dems-what-will-happen-if-they-nominate-war-hawk-hillary-clinton/
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary be chilled from running? on: August 22, 2014, 09:11:21 pm
The only thing that would chill Hillary is if her polling showed she would have a tough primary fight and/or she was an underdog for the general. I don't think she really wants such an uphill battle.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Same sex marriage ban overturned in Florida on: August 22, 2014, 09:03:32 pm
Still betting that the TX case DeLeon v Perry will be the first case where a federal appeals court rules in favor of SSM, but that case hasn't even heard arguments yet. After that it will go to SCOTUS, where I bet even Roberts joins to make it 6-3. I don't think he would want this to be another 5-4 thing.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 22, 2014, 01:23:19 pm
Political parties are less supportive of wars started by the other side's Presidents.

This is one of the reasons why I think it is going to be a big deal. None of the GOPers will want to take the position that the Obama policy towards the Islamic State is the right policy, which means they will have to propose something different - and specific. That means talking about sending in troops and expanding the bombing, or on the other side stopping the bombing and trying to focus on diplomacy.

It will also be interesting to see where Hillary stands on this. She has been critical of Obama on not dealing with ISIS earlier. By this time next year she will have her own policy prescription. And whatever that is, the GOPers will want to contrast themselves with that. If Hillary is mostly unopposed for a Dem primary, she may even be calling for more aggressive action (noting the humanitarian angle to stopping ISIS).

So GOPers would have to find a position that is differant than Obama and Hillary. While Obama has been the obsession of the GOP, by this time next year they will begin the transition to going after Hillary more.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 22, 2014, 02:00:40 am
If we're just bombing, it probably won't have much impact, like the NATO strikes in the former Yugoslavia didn't have much impact.

Well but 'just bombing' isn't enough for the war hawk wing is the point. They want more. Plus the Bosnian Serbs were genocidal, but they weren't beheading Americans and posting it on YouTube - and threatening more.


The options are:
1. continue Obama policy: drones and bombs + arming friendlies
2. stop bombing + disengage
3. More bombing (including in Syria) + send in the combat troops to Iraq (and maybe even Syria)
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is the most likely person to run for the Dem. nomination besides Clinton? on: August 22, 2014, 01:54:41 am
Schweitzer has made it pretty clear he is running, already making some swipes at Hillary. So he seems to be a lock.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 22, 2014, 01:46:24 am
Back in 2008 the Iraq war was a huge issue for both Dems and the GOP. Then in 2012 the issue barely came up. None of the GOP nominees pushed that hard to keep troops in Iraq and it wasn't big general campaign issue. But now that the Islamic State is beheading Americans and the Secretary of Defense is saying that ISIS/Islamic State is the biggest potential threat we have seen, it appears that Iraq (and Syria) are going to be big issues in 2016.

Obama is already bombing in Iraq and arming the Kurds and 'friendly' Syrians. But will any of the GOPers actually call for combat troops in Iraq and for bombing in Syria? And assuming we are still bombing in Iraq a year from now, will Paul or others be calling to end the bombing and stop engaging?

I think this may be the biggest issue of disagreement among the GOPers with the hawks and the isolationist wings finally going at it.


And it may be an issue on the Dem side, certainly if it is Sanders v Clinton.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: D: Clinton: 64% Biden 12%; R: Bush 12% Perry 12% Paul 11% on: August 02, 2014, 08:27:44 pm
Exactly, I would guess that for GOP over 50% is either supporting a candidate that isn't going to run or is undecided.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2014 on: August 01, 2014, 04:01:01 pm
sticking with Pence
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: August 01, 2014, 03:59:48 pm
Apparently The Lord has spoken to him....
Quote
Ben Carson, the former neurosurgeon turned conservative sensation, is taking a major step toward a 2016 presidential bid by forming a political action committee and selecting the man who would run his campaign, The Washington Times has learned.
Emerging from two-days of meetings with supporters in Palm Beach, Fla., Dr. Carson told the Times on Friday morning he has selected Houston businessman Terry Giles to be his 2016 campaign chairman should he run and approved the formation of a PAC called One Nation.


Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/1/ben-carson-takes-major-step-toward-presidential-ca/#ixzz39AzOwtF7
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: D: Clinton: 64% Biden 12%; R: Bush 12% Perry 12% Paul 11% on: July 29, 2014, 10:12:26 pm
or maybe they know he isn't going to run.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Kasich, & Paul by double digits on: July 29, 2014, 03:01:34 pm
But there is a clear correlation between age and Obama support, you could draw a straight line on a graph for it with the even finer age breakdowns. But for Clinton it is more of a curve with support with the youngs and olds but not as much in the middle. It is interesting.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: July 29, 2014, 01:19:52 pm
Speaking of which today Greg Abbott filed his appeal. He is going for the same "responsible procreation" argument that has been literally laughed at by other courts, including SCOTUS.

Quote
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott filed an appeal with the U.S. 5th Circuit Monday regarding the state’s same-sex marriage ban, which was ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge in February.

According to the brief, Abbott said Texas can ban same-sex marriage based on the State’s interest in procreation.

The State contends that marriage between a man and a woman “increases the likelihood” that they will produce and raise their children in “stable, lasting relationships.”

“Because same-sex relationships do not naturally produce children, recognizing same-sex marriage does not further these goals to the same extent that recognizing opposite-sex marriage does,” the brief reads. “That is enough to supply a rational basis for Texas’s marriage laws.”

The problem is that all the usual arguments about god and 'tradition' the generally 'icky' factor have no legal basis so they are left with this completely ludicrous argument.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Kasich, & Paul by double digits on: July 29, 2014, 01:13:50 pm
GenXers sure don't like Hilldog

It is an interesting question as to why Hillary does so much better than Obama with the olds but poorer with the GenXers. Could it simply be identity politics. Obama is seen as a Gen Xer and Hillary is a fellow old?

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 29, 2014, 01:05:00 pm
Well he is evangelical and I think if he runs this time he will make a play for that base, especially in IA...not letting Rick (who is actually Catholic) have them all to himself. I could see him getting 2nd in IA, lower in NH, but then coming back to win SC.

It all depends on the field and his ability to avoid gaffes of course. The media will be looking for anything that proves the 'Perry is an idiot' narrative so he will have to very careful to reshape that image. One lapse could kill him.

I am not saying he is a front runner, but the notion that his run is an 'lol' is itself 'lol'.

Of course his chances against Hillary are probably 'lol' but that is a different story.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: July 29, 2014, 12:48:00 pm
So that means 2 appeals to SCOTUS. I still suspect they wont do anything until one of the appeals courts rules in favor of SSM. So this might not get decided before the 2016 election.
You mean doesn't rule in favor?

Yes I meant in favor of SSM ban. The point being that SCOTUS like to take cases with split decisions. So far every decision is going in favor of repealing SSM bans. But eventually some judge or appellate court is going to uphold a SSM ban (probably for TX) and then SCOTUS will step in...and likely they will make SSM legal everywhere.

So the question is, how long will this take? Will they take it up next session? If not then this will be bigger issue for 2016 presidential campaign.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 29, 2014, 12:43:20 pm
GOPers tend to nominate someone who has run before, the only modern exception was George Bush Jr. who had the built in name recognition. Perry has done all the right things since 2012 in rehabilitating his image, and not just the glasses. He is being seriously under-estimated. His big liability is his bad debate performances in 2011, so what happens after he is able to deliver a couple of good debate performances in 2015? Then everyone will remember the good stuff they liked about him that made him the front-runner the minute he got in the race in August 2015. 
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