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November 27, 2014, 08:12:59 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Mulls Not Inviting Obama to Give State of the Union on: November 26, 2014, 08:48:37 pm
One thing this indicates is that the GOP are kind of grasping to find some way to respond. They know shut down and impeachment aren't good, they cant defund it and a lawsuit will likely fail so what can they do?
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 26, 2014, 08:44:44 pm
Here is how Quinnipiac asked the question, first they set it up with this question:
Quote
50. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S.
They then followed up with this:
Quote
51. If Congress does not act to address the immigration issue, do you think Barack Obama should or should not take action using executive orders?

So again they didn't actually describe Obama's executive order and the previous question may actually lead many to think Obama's order was to let every illegal immigrant stay and become a citizen. Again this is why the Hart poll (which described how the order was limited) comes up with a different result.


In a way this is not unlike Obamacare. Polling shows that when asked about it in general, a plurality are opposed to it, but when you ask about the details, majorities like the features of health care reform. And most don't want to see it fully repealed, which is the parallel here. How many Americans want the government to spend the resorces required to deport 11M undocmented, including the 5m who parents of US citizens and have been here 5 years (aka the ones in Obama's order)?

That is the trick for the GOP in 2016. How can they find a way to be against this order and against immigration reform but not be painted as being for massive deportation.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which should Democrats focus most on? on: November 26, 2014, 06:37:01 pm
Many of the key Dem groups (that vote for Dems 60-70%+) such as Asians, Latinos, Youths, Non-Religious, all vote in smaller numbers disproportionately to their overall population. So registration and turnout get a lot of bang for their buck with the Dems.

By the way, there is a third option beyond convincing swing voters and turning out your base and that is convincing voters who lean towards your opponent to not vote at all. The target of a lot of negative advertising is aimed at doing just that.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grand jury reaches decision in Ferguson case (Announcement Monday night) on: November 26, 2014, 06:14:57 pm
There are a lot of different ways to look at all the evidence, especially if it could be put in the right context and scrutiny. You know what would have been a great way to do that? A trial..
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Mulls Not Inviting Obama to Give State of the Union on: November 26, 2014, 06:10:51 pm
Nothing would make Obama any happier, it would be the ultimate Jedi Mind Trick if he can get them to do that but I doubt Boehner is that stupid.

That being said, the chances of another GOP heckler during the speech is very very high
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs on: November 26, 2014, 05:51:50 pm
Since 1992 the average drop in the white vote each election has been 3%. In 2012 it only dropped 2% but the Romney strategy assumed it wouldn't drop at all.  To be safe the GOP should at least assume 70% white vote, they may get lucky and have it be only 71% but they certainly shouldn't make plans around that. But for sure it isn't going to be 74% like this poll.

If I had to bet, I would say 70 white, 12 black, 12 Hispanic, 4 Asian, 2 other

That being said, as the election gets closer the Hillary numbers with the GOPers should tighten. The Romney number here is a good indication of generic GOPer. He is vetted and has 100% name ID. So just like the GOP shouldn't bet on the white vote, the Dems shouldn't bet that Hillary's leads in other polls is going to hold.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 57% Warren 13%; R: Romney 19% Bush 11% on: November 26, 2014, 05:43:22 pm
Another poll showing the real frontrunner for the GOP is 'undecided' at 19%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If all of the people on Wikipedia's potential candidates lists entered the race on: November 26, 2014, 05:37:53 pm
Podium sales would skyrocket
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 25, 2014, 11:50:50 pm
looking at the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, there is a small net uptick in Obama's approval since the announcement but that could be just noise. But how this plays out with Obama is actually kind of irrelevant. The bigger issue is how it will play out in 2016.  Will reversing Obama's order 'on day one' be a litmus test for GOP primary? And will vowing to ramp up deportations be a liability for the general? That is the big game here.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the world see the likes of Lincoln, TR, FDR, Churchill ever again? on: November 25, 2014, 11:19:09 pm
Would any of them be seen as so great if they weren't all leaders during horrible conflicts (with possible exception of TR). Let's hope we never have another war that tests our leaders like that.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mississippi Gay Marriage ban overturned by federal judge on: November 25, 2014, 11:12:26 pm
Anti-climatic, was hoping for some drama from the deep south on this

Kind of like the Titanic getting hit with a cruise missile and sunk in 2 minutes rather than the grinding iceberg method that gave us such a great motion picture...




While having a governor do something like that seems unlikely, I am surprised there hasn't been cases of local county officials refusing to hand out licenses. But if something like that is going to happen, MS is just the right kind of state
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 25, 2014, 11:05:58 pm
I thought Rasmussen was trying to go legit, that question is just ridiculous.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you think Mitt Romney could be the GOP's 2016 nominee? on: November 25, 2014, 09:18:37 pm
I agree that Mitt Romney is the ultimate fallback for the establishment, but that means that Christie, Bush, Kasich, Pence (and any other establishment candidate) will have to crash and burn (or not run) first. So it is very very unlikely.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rand get more votes than Ron? on: November 25, 2014, 09:16:17 pm
He will get more votes in the earlier states but I suspect he will be out by Super Tuesday so he wont get more total votes. He wants to build his cred with the establishment so he wont hang on to the end with a quixotic campaign like his dad.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 24, 2014, 06:31:47 pm
This is a complex issue and I suspect a lot depends on the wording. For example, here is how Hart and NBC polls describe the executive action

Hart description
Quote
The action would direct immigration enforcement officials to focus on threats to national security and public safety, and not on deporting otherwise law-abiding immigrants. Immigrants who are parents of children who are legal US residents could qualify to stay and work temporarily in the United States, without being deported, if they have lived in the United States for at least five years, pay taxes, and pass a criminal background check

NBC/WSJ
Quote
As you may know, executive orders are actions taken by a president that can put some regulations into effect that do not require Congressional approval. President Obama has said that by the end of the year, he intends to take executive action on immigration. His executive action would stay in place unless or until Congress passed immigration reform legislation to take its place.


As you can see the NBC/WSJ poll didn't actually describe the executive action, just that Obama took one without Congressional approval. The Hart wording was very detailed describing the action in the way the administration would like.

That is why Hart gets 67/28 favorable and NBC/WSJ gets 38/48 approve/disapprove. In separate questions both poll (as others) have shown that large majorities favor the pathway to citizenship. I think what the NBC WSJ poll is showing mostly is that while some approve of the policy, they don't like Obama acting without Congress. (Of course, how many of them realize that Congress has held up on acting for 1 1/2 years)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush doubles down on Common Core on: November 22, 2014, 09:28:01 pm
Good to see he isn't pandering and abandoning his position. I wonder where he is now on immigration. I hope he doesn't back off his previous openness to path to citizenship. His book from last year kind of muddied the waters on that, but he will already be attacked for amnesty so might as well own it.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President Obama approval poll on: November 21, 2014, 11:50:06 pm
It will be interesting to see where Obama's actual approval rating is in a week. Will it go up or down after the immigration announcement? I am going to guess a tiny bit up.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 21, 2014, 11:47:56 pm
How does one define 'protect the border'?  We already have record number of agents and immigration is already at a net zero. Plus almost half of the illegal immigrants flew here and overstayed their visas. The 'secure the border first' thing is a red herring. But even still the Senate comprehensive bill threw a few more billion at the border to appease, so why wasn't that good enough?

19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 21, 2014, 03:39:32 pm
If the GOP is really upset about this then pass a bill to deal with the undocumented. They can either find a path to legal status or appropriate funds (2012 study estimated to be $285B) to deport them all. Those are their two choices.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary advisor: Bush-Portman ticket could doom Dems in 2016 on: November 21, 2014, 03:31:53 pm
If by some miracle a pro-path to citizenship Bush made it through the primaries and picked the pro gay marriage Portman, then yes that wold be a strong GE ticket. Clinton could pick one of the VA Senators and then you could have a weird situation where FL,VA and OH (where most of the money in 2012 was spent) all moved out of the tipping point state category and the fight would be for CO, IA, NH, NV, WI and maybe NC (depending on how AAs trend).

21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb launches exploratory committee! on: November 20, 2014, 07:19:15 pm
Webb can have some appeal but he is going to have to deal with a couple of issues. One is that he voted against the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, essentially being the deciding vote killing the Bill (which puts him to the right of GW Bush). The other is that he has spoken out against affirmative action.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: November 20, 2014, 01:17:43 pm
Positive/Negative ratings for the 2016ers from new NBC/Wapo poll

Among all respondents:

    Ben Carson 17%-7% (+10)
    Elizabeth Warren 23%-17% (+6)
    Hillary Clinton 43%-40% (+3)
    Rand Paul 26%-23% (+3)
    Marco Rubio 21%-19% (+2)
    Mike Huckabee 25%-24% (+1)
    Scott Walker 15%-14% (+1)
    John Kasich 11%-10% (+1)
    Chris Christie 29%-29% (even)
    Joe Biden 35%-38% (-3)
    Jeb Bush 26%-33% (-7)
    Rick Perry 20%-29% (-9)
    Ted Cruz 16%-26% (-10)

Among Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton 78%-5% (+73)
    Joe Biden 62%-9% (+52)
    Elizabeth Warren 36%-6% (+30)

Among Republicans

    Huckabee 52%-8% (+44)
    Rand Paul 48%-6% (+42)
    Jeb Bush 44%-12% (+32)
    Ben Carson 33%-2% (+31)
    Marco Rubio 37%-7% (+30)
    Scott Walker 29%-2% (+27)
    Chris Christie 40%-19% (+21)
    Rick Perry 33%-13% (+20)
    John Kasich 23%-6% (+17)
    Ted Cruz 27%-12% (+15)

And their analysis:
Quote
America, these are your presidential candidates. And, so far, you donít like Ďem that much.

For all the preparation and jockeying for the 2016 presidential campaign thatís taken place more than a year before the nomination process formally begins, most of the top White House contenders arenít enjoying high ratings among the American public. Even the most positively-viewed potential candidates get nearly as much opposition as support, according to the latest NBC News/WSJ poll.

And, in a deeply polarized political climate, none of more than a dozen potential candidates asked about in the poll are close to having significant crossover appeal with the opposite political party.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich attacks Walker for ignoring facts and being too partisan on: November 20, 2014, 12:49:25 pm
Kasich would be a good GE candidate who just won really big in OH. However he is:
- pro bipartisanship and compromise
- for expanding Medicare under Obamacare
- open to path to citizenship for undocumented
- pro Common Core

That won't go great with the core base of the party, and if Bush and/or Christie are in the race, then there will be a fight for the moderate voters (who are outnumbered by the conservatives to begin with)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Clinton probably can't expand 2016 map; GA/AZ not trending blue on: November 19, 2014, 06:04:51 pm
Let's not forget that Obama got 43% of whites in 2008. The simple fact is that we really don't know how things will look for a while, but Hillary doing better than Obama's 2012 performance is not only reasonable but probably likely. How much better is a question mark but getting into the Gore/Kerry/Obama 2008 range is certainly not crazy talk.

But my point was that if you game out all the Hillary scenarios, her team should look at at 8% PV possibility ala 2008 and see what states go into play. Especially this far out, they are blue-skying it. And as noted by the Hillary team, this is more to do with making the GOP play defense. That is why Obama stayed in NC until the end in 2012 (forcing the GOP to spend more there then the Dems because it was a must win state for them)
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: History shows Hillary unlikely to win on: November 19, 2014, 04:30:13 pm
Voters will not want a third Obama term.

He's running again? I guess the GOP is right and he has complete disregard for the constitution. Then again he still has to get past Hillary in the primary.
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