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July 28, 2015, 02:48:07 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Monmouth: Trump doubles Bush's support on: July 27, 2015, 11:39:07 pm
looks like the money the Kasich PAC is spending in NH is really paying off. I think he is the only one up on the air there. Not sure if they are also buying national FOX time as he needs to get his national numbers into the 3% range this week to get on that debate stage
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ivana Trump: Donald made me feel "violated" during sex on: July 27, 2015, 09:25:46 pm
a quick google search found this from 1997

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/gossip/harassment-suit-trumped-article-1.764918
Quote
HAS HARASSMENT SUIT BEEN TRUMPED?

Call it the case of the disappearing lawsuit. Last Wednesday, a Florida woman filed a $125 million suit in Manhattan Federal Court alleging that, in 1993, Donald Trump sexually harassed her and pulled out of a business deal when she rejected his advances. But yesterday, as Trump vigorously denied her charges, the woman's husband said she was planning to withdraw her suit. Trump told us that the suit "was a desperate attempt to get me to settle a case they can't win.
...
The suit repeats sex-harassment charges first aired in a breach-of-contract suit the couple filed in 1995. A federal judge agreed to seal all references to the sexual allegations. But the filing of a civil-rights lawsuit in federal court put the lurid charges into the public record. In her latest action, Jill Houraney alleges that: "Trump repeatedly put his hands on [Houraney's] thighs and violated [her] 'physical and mental integrity.

' " "Trump made denigrating, lewd comments about all women in general as 'sex objects.

' " Trump engaged in "Svengali-type acts to control and subjugate [her] to [his] will
... " At one point yesterday, George Houraney said Trump had "forced" his wife to file the complaint because he was unwilling to settle with the couple. But later in the day, Houraney said his wife's lawyers "are working on withdrawing it.

Was this settled or dropped? I'm sure some GOP operatives are trying to find out.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will the USA end? on: July 27, 2015, 09:15:13 pm
Other. Supervolcano eruption  (Yellowstone caldera), asteroid strike, gamma ray burst, plague that decimates humanity..

All at once? That would be a very bad day.

....but those would all qualify in the natural disaster/pandemic option in the poll.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gilmore to announce candidacy "later this week" on: July 27, 2015, 09:12:47 pm
I wonder if he will be at the NH Union Leader event. They have some basic criteria about having staffers in early states I think (along with official FEC filing).
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ivana Trump: Donald made me feel "violated" during sex on: July 27, 2015, 08:40:16 pm
One ex-wife attacking Trump wont hurt him. But what if this is the first of a series? That is what happened with Cain. There are probably more ex gfs willing to talk. And I would bet the farm that at some point in his life Trump has settled a sexual harassment claim.  I'm sure some of the other candidate's oppo researchers are looking into it.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Paul polling worse nationally than his father was at this point in 2011 on: July 27, 2015, 08:10:59 pm
He is fine.



7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / How will the USA end? on: July 27, 2015, 03:59:41 pm
The United States of America has had a good run as a sovereign nation. It has grown but the constitutional foundation of the republic has existed since 1788 (12 years after declaring independence from the UK). But nothing lasts forever. So how do you see it ending. Transformed into a new type of nation? Folded into some larger global or Americas Union? Or will it be via war, either civil or an adversary country? Or perhaps an extinction type event?  Or will it be alien harvesting.... (It's a cook book!)
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mike Huckabee: Obama Marching Israelis "To the Door of the Oven" on: July 27, 2015, 01:17:39 pm
Donald Trump has turned this into the troll campaign. Now the only way for someone in the middle of the pack or behind is to say outrageous things like this. And it is working, today both Obama and Clinton responded to Huckabee, denouncing his comments of course. And that will only raise Huck's profile among his target voters. He also got Bush to denounce him, which probably also helps.

We will likely see more and more of this. If your goal is to get a response out of Obama, imagine the creative things these guys can say?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:49 pm
Apparently the Bush campaign is paying by the word now?

As for the OP question, we can take it as a given that W endorses Jeb but I believe he has already said he isn't going to be going out in the campaign trail, IIRC.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Marist: Walker and Clinton ahead. on: July 26, 2015, 01:33:01 pm
0% for the guy who won Iowa last time? 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 26, 2015, 01:07:13 pm
RE: RV v Adults

CNN and ABC polls are the only ones who have results for adult republican leaners and RV Republicans. And so the results are slightly different. In the past the RCP avg used the adult number but I note that they are now using the RV number (just like HuffPollster). I have also always used the RV number. Usually it doesnt make much of a difference in the rankings but right now it does. If FOX uses the adult number then currently there is a tie for 10th.

Rankings using 'adults' (not RV)
1   Trump   18.0
2   Bush   14.2
3   Walker   10.2
4   Rubio   6.6
5   Cruz   6.0
6   Paul   6.0
7   Huckabee   5.4
8   Carson   5.2
9   Christie   3.2
10   Kasich   2.0
11   Perry   2.0
12   Santorum   1.6
13   Jindal   1.4
14   Fiorina   1.0
15   Pataki   0.8
16   Graham   0.4
17   Gilmore   0.0

So if the debate were being held today and FOX wanted Kasich into the debate they could use the adult number. They could also round up to the nearest whole number but that would also put Santorum in, giving the main debate 12 and the forum only 3 (Graham doesn't meet 1% threshold).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 26, 2015, 01:02:25 pm
UPDATED with new CNN Poll

Trump continues to increase his lead. Top 10 stays the same. Perry barely holding on to the last spot in the main debate with Kasich just 0.2 behind.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump   18.0
2   Bush   14.0
3   Walker   10.6
4   Rubio   6.2
5   Paul   6.0 ↑
6   Cruz   6.0 ↑
7   Huckabee   5.6
8   Carson   5.2 ↓
9   Christie   3.0
10   Perry   2.2

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Kasich   2.0 ↑  **
12   Santorum   1.6 ↓  **
13   Jindal   1.4
14   Fiorina   0.8
15   Pataki   0.6 ↑

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

16   Graham   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 1% (as opposed to 0%)
- Allow multiple polls from same pollster
- Round to 1 decimal
- 1% threshold for 'Forum' will include rounding up to nearest whole number

Currently averaging latest polls from CNN, ABC, FOX, USA Today, Monmouth


13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 26, 2015, 12:47:38 pm
If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.



The new CNN poll has a good chance of being in the final 5. I suspect others will be new polls from Monmouth, NBC, Fox and Quinni. But we could see some polls from others who havent polled in a while or at all this cycle and maybe ABC or USA Today may want to get into the action. Bottom line is I doubt the last FOX and ABC polls will be in the final 5
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Paul setting up infrastructure for future campaigns? on: July 25, 2015, 04:21:54 pm
The way Paul fought to be able to run for both Senate and prez showed that he knew this time was his first go, a sort of practice run. He was getting it out of the way for the real run in 2020 or 2024
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump: Soft on Immigration? on: July 25, 2015, 03:03:06 pm
You might think that Trump is for reducing legal immigration, building a wall across the entire Mexico border and deporting the current undocumented, but this week when pressed on those issues it turns out he actually isn't.  And some people are starting to notice....

Weekly Standard: Trump Suggests He May Be Open To Amnesty &
 Trump: We Should 'Work Something Out' for Illegals With 'Merit'

Daily Caller: Donald Trump On Amnesty: 'If Somebody's Been Outstanding, We Try And Work Something Out' [VIDEO]

CSMonitor: Merit-based migrants: Is Donald Trump softening on illegal immigration?

IBT: Election 2016: Donald Trump Mum On Amnesty, Immigrants' Futures

Bloomberg: Trump Says He's 'Big Believer' in Merit-Based Immigration System

CNN: What is Trump's actual position on immigration?

Is this the thing that will bring down Trump? That he really isnt as hardline on his signature issue as his bloviating might indicate?

Seems to me that someone like Scott Walker has an opportunity to get to the right of Trump on immigration, just like Romney did to Perry and Gingrich. Take a page out of the Rove playbook. You dont attack someone on their weekness, but on their strength.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NH Union Leader to hold candidate 'forum' 3 days before FOX debate on: July 25, 2015, 02:43:23 pm
Still curious as to the format of this thing. How will they make it so it isnt like a debate? The whole point of the RNC sactioned debates was to reduce the number, one of the complaints of the candidates. If I had to bet, Walker Bush and some others probably would prefer to not go to this thing but they are afraid of pissing off the press in the early states, notably the NHUL. If this thing ends up being almost exactly like a debate what is to  stop more of these 'forums' springing up, and then the candidates are right back where they were in 2012, compelled to show up to all of them or fear missing out and/or pissing off important media outlets.

On the other hand Trump seems to now be in full Cersei Lannister mode, lashing out at all his press enemies. So he wont go to this because the Union Leader attacked him. Also today his campaign refused to give credentials to the Des Moines Register - the biggest paper in Iowa - because they wrote an editorial against him.  If the Des Moines Register is involved in any of the future debates (as they have been in the past) will he refuse to come? What about the NBC debate, will he refuse to go to that because of MSNBC and/or connection to Univision?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inspectors general ask Justice Department to investigate Clinton emails on: July 24, 2015, 05:49:04 pm
Also think of the timing. Today Hillary made a big speech about her economic policy and someone decided to leak this to the NYT hours before, ensuring this became the story.  I was watching CNN and instead of talking about Hillary's speech Wolf was asking if there is a chance another Dem will get in the race because of Hillary's problems.   I wouldn't be surprised if someone on Bush's staff coordinated with GOP staff on the Hill to nail the timing just right.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 24, 2015, 05:44:35 pm
From July 7 in Politico
Quote
“I actually was surprised after Fox had announced how it was going to decide this that some candidates didn’t hold off on announcing” their campaigns, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, who expects to release two more polls before the first debate.
...
Pollsters are usually hesitant to reveal their plans to the media, either to prevent campaigns from working to affect the results or for competitive reasons — particularly in the case of those who work for other news organizations. But many in the political polling field expect a rush of surveys to hit before the Fox deadline. A late-July surge could make all the difference.

“You’re going to see a bunch of polls released over that weekend and into Monday,” said Murray, the Monmouth pollster, “and those are the ones that are going to count.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/upcoming-polls-to-lock-in-gop-debate-field-119793.html#ixzz3gqqtVg00

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz calls Mitch McConnell a Flat-Out Liar in Senate Speech on: July 24, 2015, 03:59:07 pm
Resigning from your current job isn't unprecedented entirely. Bob Dole resigned from the Senate back in 1996 after he wrapped up the GOP nomination. And some POTUS candidates have pledged not to run for reelection for their current jobs, for example Marco Rubio.  Not sure about anyone resigning from the Senate during the nomination fight.

As for Dems liking outsiders in Congress, that makes sense because Dems have more respect for government. But Tea Partiers are famed for 'get your government hands off my Medicare' They hate government. Right now Trump and Carson have over a 1/3 of the stated support. And let's not forget Herman Cain's rise to the top. There is a big appeal on the right to genuine outsiders and it could be that no matter how much he tries, Senator Cruz cant get that stink of government (notably Federal Government) off.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inspectors general ask Justice Department to investigate Clinton emails on: July 24, 2015, 03:53:32 pm
So basically this is another intramural fight between the CIA and the State Dept. (over what should and should not be considered classified) and really nothing to do with Clinton, except that some Hill staffer leaked it to the NYT and tied it to her.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz calls Mitch McConnell a Flat-Out Liar in Senate Speech on: July 24, 2015, 02:46:42 pm
There is clearly a wing of the GOP that likes outsiders and hates politicians.  Cruz is being outpolled by Carson and Trump. Perhaps - even though he rails against the 'Washington cartel' - the Tea Partiers still see "Senator" next to his name and lump him in with the rest of the evil politicians.

In all seriousness, Cruz' best shot at winning may actually be to resign his position as a Senator. Make a big show of it. Denounce all of the GOP establishment on the steps of congress and light his Senate ID card on fire.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: YouGov: Trump far ahead, favorables drop on: July 24, 2015, 02:29:54 pm
I just did a quick average of the 3 post-Trump McCain comment polls (Ipsos, YouGov, PPP) and here are the results:

Trump   21.3
Bush   14.7
Walker   13.3
Carson   7.7
Rubio   5.3
Huckabee   5.0
Cruz   4.7
Paul   4.3
Christie   4.0
Perry   2.7
Kasich   2.7
Fiorina   2.7
Santorum   1.7
Jindal   1.3
Graham   1.3
Pataki   0.3

None of these polls are live phone and so none will count to the Fox debate criteria, but if they are to be believed, the McCain comment has had no effect and may have even helped him.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump rules out third party run on: July 24, 2015, 02:13:23 pm
Today on Morning Joe hijacker candidate Trump laid out his hostage demands explained his position

Quote
The best way to win is to win as a Republican, I do not want to do Independent at all. Now, if I am treated poorly that is one thing, but if I am treated well and with great respect and I don't win I would not do that. But, if I am treated poorly I would do that.

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Bush +1 over Trump - Clinton +33 over Bernie on: July 24, 2015, 02:04:17 pm
Yet the media will continue to brand 2% Rubio as a top-tier candidate.

Rubio has dropped a lot in other polls but this is his worst ever and is an outlier.


This will not be counted in debate average, right?

almost certainly not. Fox has not said what counts but the assumption is that they will only count polls that match their own poll methodology, notably live phone.

Clinton continuing to fall!

Clinton is actually up 3 since their last poll a few weeks ago and Bernie is down 5
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Bush +1 over Trump - Clinton +33 over Bernie on: July 24, 2015, 01:55:29 pm
Reuters/Ipsos July 18 - July 22, 2015
Online Poll
1046 Americans (w/ 362 Republicans 412 Democrats)


GOP:


Bush   18%
Trump   17%
Walker   10%
Carson   6%
Christie   6%
Cruz   6%
Perry   5%
Paul   4%
Huckabee   4%
Kasich   3%
Santorum   3%
Rubio   2%
Graham   2%
Jindal   2%
Pataki   1%
Fiorina   1%

GOP 3-WAy
Bush   37%
Walker   30%
Trump   26%

DEM:

Clinton   51%
Sanders   18%
Biden   11%
Webb   5%
Cuomo   5%
Chafee   2%
O'Malley     1%
Gillibrand     1%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14693

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