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October 01, 2014, 09:29:31 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Gov. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) on: Today at 12:18:43 pm
I think I was the first here to talk up Pence, he is going to be a strong candidate both in the primaries and general. If you assume the GOP want a governor, then just look at the choices
http://www.rga.org/homepage/governors/
By process of elimination, Pence ends up their best chance.

Still think absent any major bad shifts in the economy or huge revelations/gaffes, that Hillary would beat him, but he would put up a good fight. I could see a Pence/Rubio ticket picking up the Romney states +OH, FL and IA (netting 259). Maybe throw in CO, and then Hillary squeaks by at 270 v 268. 
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Scott Walker Unite the GOP? (GQ) on: Today at 12:11:03 pm
Hillary Clinton will unite the GOP, it doesn't matter who they nominate. 
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: September 27, 2014, 04:56:21 pm
With the few interactions Bush has had with politics in the last couple of years it is hard for him to come away thinking he will be able to campaign "joyfully" which was his precondition. He is seeing that today's GOP primary electorate are not very 'joyful' people
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: September 27, 2014, 04:53:09 pm
Betfair prices are set by the bookmakers. This isnt the same as intrade (which closed down). So there are no 'shares' for people to buy/sell/hold. In theory this means the odds should be more realistic and not be able to be influenced by traders in a low volume market, but this far out the bookmakers are really just guessing. Once everyone announces and there are lots of polls the odds will likely be more realistic and change more often. I doubt there is much betting going on now anyway.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which potential GOP candidate is the biggest hawk? on: September 21, 2014, 12:02:23 am
it will be interesting to see if there is a race to the bottom for who can be more hawkish, like there was last time with the competing tax plans. Also with so many governors in the mix it gives them an opportunity to redefine themselves because they don't have records on national security. I think Perry will do a lot of pandering in this area.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz on ISIS, and the split among GOP hawks on: September 20, 2014, 04:50:53 pm
The GOP Debates are going to be fascinating. There will be little to no agreement among these guys on Iraq/Syria/ISIS. And of course ISIS is likely to troll the US elections with videos, beheadings, etc.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary be better off if Republicans take the Senate? on: September 19, 2014, 10:43:23 am
probably yes as she can run against the (now fully republican) congress, which will have lower approval than Obama, likely much lower
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson: ISIL is like Political Correctness on: September 15, 2014, 11:25:59 am
So according to Ben Carson
Homesexuality is like Bestiality
Obamacare is like Slavery
Political Correctness is like Islamic State

One thing is clear. This man is really bad at analogies.

Also when he is exposed to a presidential campaign and has to work outside the Tea Party/Fox News bubble. He is going to be in for a big surprise. Hell, even Bill O'Reilly called him out for defending Ray Rice last week. Wait til he has to deal with the press in IA.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Air Force to atheist Sgt.: "Recite 'So help me god' or get out" on: September 11, 2014, 12:09:25 am
would it count if he said "so help me Flying Spaghetti Monster"
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz booed off stage at Middle Eastern Christian conference on: September 10, 2014, 10:39:36 pm
Cruz has outlined his 3 point plan for "stopping ISIS" which begins with "make border security a top priority"
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/10/opinion/ted-cruz-how-us-can-stop-isis/


Maybe being from TX he has some special insight, but I missed the reports about the ISIS forces assembling across the Rio Grande
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ suffers 8TH Credit Downgrade under Christie on: September 10, 2014, 07:43:05 pm
Without a case to be made for his record (NJ also has higher than avg unemployment), and without his bipartisan appeal (lost due to scandal), all he is left with is being a blustery RINO. If he gets in (assuming no one close to him gets indicted and flips on him, which is a big if) I don't see him getting past NH
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Mitt Romney going to run in 2016? on: September 10, 2014, 07:37:30 pm
Romney's name stays alive as long as there is no viable mainstream GOPer who can appeal to the moderates. But eventually one will show up and he will fade away.


BTW, on the old canard that conservatives didn't show up in 2012, in reality (I know a liberal construct to be sure) they were a larger part of the electorate than any recent election with exit polling data...
% of voters calling selves "Conservative"
1980   28
1984   33
1988   33
1992   30
1996   34
2000   29
2004   34
2008   34
2012   35

The irony is that Romney lost because he pandered to the conservatives so much, he lost his appeal to the moderates.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson Defends (Girlfriend Beating) Ray Rice on: September 09, 2014, 03:47:50 pm
Well I was joking, because there is actually a FB thing
https://www.facebook.com/GodCallingDrCarsonToRunForPresidentIn2016

...but if you want Truthiness, then....

Quote
"If the Lord grabbed me by the collar and made me do it, I would"
- Ben Carson to Sean Hannity on Running for President - Feb 2013

Quote
"Now is the time to start all of the appropriate exploration and investigation, and put down the structure that is necessary"
- Ben Carson to Washington Times on prepping to run for POTUS - Aug 2014

One can only conclude that either the Lord has touched Dr. Carson's collar, or he is getting ready for him to do so.


But in general I think you are missing the point of this thread. With this comment and others he has made like comparing Obamacare to slavery, comparing homosexuality to bestiality, etc. This guy is not capable of surviving the media scrutiny of a presidential campaign.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson Defends (Girlfriend Beating) Ray Rice on: September 09, 2014, 01:08:52 pm
There is no doubt that if this were a year from now and the campaign were in full swing he would be spending the next week defending this and eventually doing some sort of public apology. The media would be all over him over this. The whole thing just shows that even though he thinks that God wants him to be President, he is simply not ready for prime time.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: we must militarily destroy the Islamic State of Iraq & Syria on: September 08, 2014, 04:32:36 pm
Some data from new CNN Poll:

76% favor additional airstrikes against ISIS, 23% oppose
62% favor military aid to forces fighting ISIS, 37% oppose
38% favor Placing U.S. soldiers on the ground in Iraq and Syria to combat ISIS,  61% oppose

Don't see the cross-tabs yet, but you can bet that a good chunk of the 38% who want US troops on the ground are Republicans. It may be a majority of Republicans. Somebody in the GOP field is eventually going to pander to them, wrap himself in the flag and start calling for D-Day in Damascus.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Ben Carson Defends (Girlfriend Beating) Ray Rice on: September 08, 2014, 04:16:49 pm
So everyone seems to agree that after seeing video of Ray Rice (now fired from the Ravens) knock out his girlfriend with one punch, he is a bad guy. Well everyone but potential 2016 GOP darling Ben Carson, who said...
Quote
let’s not all jump on the bandwagon of demonizing this guy. He obviously has some real problems, and his wife obviously knows that, because she subsequently married him. So they both need some help. So rather than just jumping on a punitive bandwagon, let’s just see if we can get some help for these people
That's right, she really needs to share the blame. I mean what a total glass jaw right?
http://www.mediaite.com/online/ben-carson-defends-ray-rice-dont-start-demonizing-this-guy/

This kind of total media ineptitude just shows that he may be even more entertaining (and even more apt to crash and burn) than Herman Cain.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hilary Clinton being a feminist hurt her? on: September 07, 2014, 10:12:35 pm
1. no
2. the quote from the OP is attributed to Gloria Alred not Hillary Clinton

Sorry for confusing the two.
 

sorry, not buying the act. You are obviously trolling

/thread
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hilary Clinton being a feminist hurt her? on: September 07, 2014, 08:02:29 pm
1. no
2. the quote from the OP is attributed to Gloria Alred not Hillary Clinton
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz's dad: “The Average Black Does Not” Understand The Minimum Wage Is Bad on: September 06, 2014, 05:11:10 pm
Black voters are more rational actors than white voters. Black Republicans are generally upper class. It makes sense.

It's these poor whites complaining about the moochers not paying income tax that make no sense.

Not to mention the olds worried about the guvment coming to take their Medicare
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President Obama’s America is a passive, confused and ineffective superpower on: September 06, 2014, 05:07:00 pm
Hmm, this seems somewhat relevant to this post.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/the-kremlins-troll-army/375932/

Quote
A June article by Max Seddon of BuzzFeed reported the Kremlin was spending millions of dollars to pay English-speaking Russians to promote President Vladimir Putin and his policies in U.S. media like Fox News broadcasting and The Huffington Post and Politico news sites. Trolls are reportedly expected to manage multiple fake accounts and post on news articles 50 times a day, often with sentiments as simplistic as "Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak!"

Well I would just like to say that Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak


check please, I prefer Euros over Rubbles
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Marriage bans struck down in Indiana and Wisconsin on: September 04, 2014, 06:24:23 pm
Wow, that was quick.

Not just quick, but also hilarious to read. This chief justice is my new favourite American judge now. Tongue

Even the Reagan appointees are seeing the writing on the wall.

well, not so fast. The one Federal judge (from LA) who has ruled in favor of SSM ban was Reagan appointee.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Marriage bans struck down in Indiana and Wisconsin on: September 04, 2014, 06:23:21 pm
Well after the verbal smackdown the court gave to the attorneys from IN and WI, it is no surprise, but the ruling is full of win.

Quote
“Heterosexuals get drunk and pregnant, producing unwanted children; their reward is to be allowed to marry,” Posner wrote. “Homosexual couples do not produce unwanted children; their reward is to be denied the right to marry. Go figure.”

I wonder if this is the first time such a sarcastic "go figure" was used in an US Federal Appellate Court decision. Surprised he didn't use "talk to the hand, because the constitution aint listening"
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McDonnells found guilty on: September 04, 2014, 03:16:10 pm
the amazing thing is that apparently it was perfectly legal within Virginia state law, to receive $150k in bribes gifts
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: LA judge upholds state SSM ban on: September 04, 2014, 01:57:58 pm
My guess is that the Supreme Court rules that while a federal ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional, a state-wide ban is constitutional and ruling that the constitution does not give federal courts the authority to strike down state-level bans on same-sex marriage.  I doubt Kennedy would have any problem signing off on such an opinion.  In cases like Bush v. Gore*, D.C. v. Heller*, Shelby County v. Holder, Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission, Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby, etc  the five conservative justices have proven that they will pay the Constitution no more mind than toilet paper when it conflicts with their personal political agendas.  The question isn't whether the Supreme Court's conservative majority will once again violate their oaths of office, but merely how far they will go.  Even if they rule that statewide bans are unconstitutional, it will only be because the Republican Party believes it is in its political interest to put this issue to bed (I suppose that would be another "who cares why people do good things" situation as Al put it in another thread).

*Alito and Roberts weren't on the Court at the time of the two * rulings.

that is just paranoia. You may not always agree with Justice Kennedy, but he isn't some partisan hack who is taking orders from Reince Priebus. And he isn't one of those 'states rights' types of guys either. Kennedy also wrote the majority opinions is Romer v. Evans (overturning a CO ban on any laws protecting gays from discrimination) and Lawrence v. Texas (which overturned sodomy laws).

Here is part of his opinion from Romer (way back in 1996)
Quote
Its sheer breadth is so discontinuous with the reasons offered for it that the amendment seems inexplicable by anything but animus toward the class that it affects; it lacks a rational relationship to legitimate state interests

In a way, he really isn't a swing vote in this case. He has made it clear that he sees sexual orientation as protected by the fourteenth amendment just like race. When you look at his history, it seems impossible that he will suddenly back SSM bans, especially for partisan reasons.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top 2 Issues For GOP Primary Fight? on: September 04, 2014, 01:35:21 pm
I think that Foreign Policy - notably ISIS/Iraq/Syria and Russia/Ukraine - is going to be big issue of debate and are for most disagreement. It will be interesting to see if there will be a 'hawk off' for the race to who can be most aggressive. Eventually one of them will call for combat troops in Iraq and Syria.

I think the second big issue will be Immigration, with the same dynamic as 2008. This issue really fires up the base and there is disagreement (or at least differences in the records) between the candidates


If Jeb Bush runs and becomes the or a front-runner, then education (and Common Core) will be a huge issue. Christie could also be tied to it, but not as much. I believe Jindal, Perry, Pence and Walker have all rejected Common Core, so if it is between them, then at best it would be a 'who hated it most first' type of thing.
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