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October 31, 2014, 02:20:29 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: AT&T Girl vs. Wendy's Girl on: October 30, 2014, 08:25:42 pm
If you like the ATT girl (Milana Vayntrub) she was in a few episodes of the (very funny) HBO series SILICON VALLEY


2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP attempting to purge 1 in 7 black voters from voter rolls on: October 30, 2014, 05:22:56 pm
If the government requires citizens to purchase something from the government (and ID) in order to vote, then it is a poll tax.

Plus the notion that the GOP are just trying to stop 'fraud' is shown to be a lie because in addition to purging roles and requiring IDs they are also trying to reduce early voting, especially on Sundays before elections (when black churches organize vote drives).

There is no great and honorable principle at hand, they simply want to be sure that there are barriers to vote for those less likely to vote for them. They have given up on appealing to these voters and just want them to go away.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The two-years and one week out prediction. on: October 30, 2014, 11:58:44 am
Clinton/Warner - 50% 270
Pence/Rubio - 49% 268



4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP attempting to purge 1 in 7 black voters from voter rolls on: October 29, 2014, 01:05:16 pm
It is sadly telling that as demographics have changed the GOP solution isn't to find ways to appeal to the new electorate but to find ways to get fewer people to vote (based on the assumption that their voters will be more likely to make it through the various new hurdles). Even if they succeed in the short term it will only come back to bite them on the ass in the future. Just look at how California has changed for the GOP post Prop 187.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson Super PAC already has campaign chairmen for all 99 Iowa counties on: October 29, 2014, 12:59:19 pm
He is going to be a formidable candidate in IA. If he can just avoid saying something really stupid for 15 months I think he can win it (But that is a big if).
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Palin may run in 2016 on: October 29, 2014, 12:55:05 pm
Of course she wont run, she is just looking for attention. I hope she goes on another ridiculous bus tour right before the filing deadlines like she did in 2011, but this time hopefully no one pays attention to her.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the RGA (meaning Christie) shortchanging Walker? on: October 28, 2014, 05:00:51 am
This story shows both how untrusted Christie is within the GOP and how his image has been so tarnished that it is plausible that he would actually use the power of the RGA to damage one of his fellow governors for his personal gain. Think of it this way, if Jindal were in charge and the same numbers were coming up, would this story be out there? I doubt it.

The GOP are set to make major gains in the Senate and possible take over, and yet it is quite possible they will have a net loss in governorships. That might hurt Christie with elites and the donor class.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Hillary do worse or better than Obama with Hispanics ? on: October 26, 2014, 03:20:57 am
Obama's 2012 shouldn't necessarily be seen as some kind of ceiling. Bill Clinton actually did better and even Dukakis got 70%.

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Hillary do worse or better than Obama with Hispanics ? on: October 25, 2014, 10:41:49 pm
Historically Hispanic voters are the swingiest group. Here is how they have voted for the last 4 elections vs. how all voters voted:
Candidate:   Hisp        All
Gore            62           48
Kerry           53           48
Obama        67           53
Obama        71           51

the 18 point swing from the low in 2004 to the high in 2012 may be as simple as the GOP nominee in 2004 was for a path to citizenship for undocumented and the nominee in 2012 called for 'self-deportation'. It is noteworthy that in both cases Hispanic voters trended in the opposite direction than white voters.

Obviously the GOP party establishment (via the 2013 'autopsy') believed that they had to embrace path to citizenship, but the party grassroots rejected this. So is it possible for a pro-path candidate to get through the GOP primary? And is it possible for an anti-path candidate to win the general? This is the GOP Catch 22.

So in answer to the OP question, I would say it is impossible to guess what Hillary will get until we know who the GOP nominee is, and what their position is on the path to citizenship. But nominating a Latino (or Latina) isn't going to help if the party is still fighting the path.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread (US Domestic) on: October 24, 2014, 04:27:37 pm
Thanks Obama

You joke, but....
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-obama-should-resign-ebola

So far the only people to contract Ebola in USA are health care workers. Even the fiance of Thomas Eric Duncan is out quarantine. If she didn't get it, i don't see how anyone who isn't working with an infected patient has anything to worry about.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz staffer trolls hard on Twitter on: October 24, 2014, 04:10:19 pm
Another thing that wasn't let into this country before Obamacare....



Thanks Obama!
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz writes a "2015" (cough 2016) platform on: October 24, 2014, 04:05:04 pm
Well Cruz's agenda is moderated a bit from the laundry list of hardcore conservative wet dreams like:
- pull out of UN
- human life amendment
- school prayer amendment
- revoke 16th (income tax) and 17th (direct senator elections) amendments
- Abolish IRS, EPA, Dept. of Education, HUD, Commerce
- Revoke all corporate taxes
- Privatize Social Security and Medicare
- Cut funding for Amtrak, NPR, Arts, science R&D (especially anything about climate)
- Cut all foreign aid (except Israel)

There is all sorts of crazy right wing red meat he isn't throwing. So far the only bone he has thrown is the Audit the Fed thing and as I noted he has replaced the Marriage Amendment (making SSM illegal everywhere) with the watered down version to let states decide
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 24, 2014, 03:34:29 pm
There is NO way he wins.  The evangelical crowd are influential in the GOP, but they're still a small minority.

The evangelical crowd is a small minority of all voters, but they are a significant part of the GOP. Exit polls in 2012 showed 19% of all voters were White Born Again AND voted for Romney, compare that to 32% of self-identified Republicans and you actually have 2/3s of Republican voters being White Evangelical. If you drill down more to Protestants who attend church weekly and/or those who think abortion should be illegal in ALL cases (including Rape) then you get to maybe 1/3 of GOP voters, which is still a significant portion. Remember Huckabee won IA with 34% of the vote in 2008.

Huckabee would stand a reasonable chance of winning assuming that Perry and/or Cruz is not able to cut too much into his base in the same way that Thompson did back in 04 (which probably cost him from winning SC, which was the turning point for McCain)
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 24, 2014, 02:24:22 pm
I think Huck may run just to make a statement. He may not want to be president, but he wants to give the evangelical wing a stronger voice in the party. He has been whining about how they are being taken for granted for a while. The recent silence from most in the party after SCOTUS defacto made SSM legal in most of the country pissed him off.  Hey loves making money on FOX but he can afford to take a year off and build his brand, and the money from Adelson wont hurt. If he has to throw in some lines about how great Israel is to his basic stump speech to get the Adelson cash, I'm sure he would be happy to do it.

If Huck gets in, Santorum might as well stay home as he was Huckabee-lite and a Catholic to boot.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: District Judge Upholds Puerto Rico gay marriage ban on: October 23, 2014, 06:02:25 pm
Interestingly the judge is a Carter appointee, so he is first Dem appointee to uphold a ban. The LA judge who upheld the ban was a Reagan appointee. 

 But I doubt this survives at the first circuit.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Arizona, Georgia, Montana: Which ones could Hillary carry? on: October 23, 2014, 05:48:41 pm
Whenever one of these 'could' posts goes up the obvious answer is yes she could win them all, and all the ones in the previous Clinton but no Obama thread. The real question is, which states should Hillary go after with time/money/resources. She can't go after all the states her husband won, but a couple of states beyond the Obama map makes sense. The Dems seem to be putting a lot of resources into GA for 2014 so that is one to watch. MO and AR are also possibilities. But I would say pick one or two 'expand' states and focus and get out quick if you get no traction.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 23, 2014, 05:32:54 pm
The GOP have an EV path that is very doable, it is the states Bush won at least once (minus NM and NV). So Romney + FL, OH, VA, CO, IA,  NH gets you to 285. They should spend 90%+ of their cash on these states (including NC and any other Romney states the Dems go after)

This path allows some buffer with a loss of one or even two small states, but FL and OH are 'must win' in this scenario (realistically it is hard to see any GOP victory without both). Don't get distracted by PA, MI, WI, NV or other so-called battlegrounds unless you really see some traction in any of them (or have a favorite son, like Romney did with Ryan in WI).

18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 07:15:26 pm
Obama's 39% with whites is actually quite low. It is worse than both Gore and Kerry. It is even worse than Dukakis. As I have noted here before, if Hillary just gets Kerry's numbers with whites and non-whites, then it goes from a modest GOP victory to essentially tied PV with winner coming down to just how many whites show up vs. non-whites. And bear in mind that Bush in 04 got record high numbers with Latinos and Asians (around 44%) by pushing comprehensive immigration reform and even got 11% of blacks (matching his Dad's numbers in 1988).

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Our President continues to be the best on: October 22, 2014, 11:59:27 am
Drudge Report: Obama cheats on Michelle, caught with girl in Chicago Voting Booth!

Drudgereally  actually did have “Man warns president not to touch his girlfriend"
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz writes a "2015" (cough 2016) platform on: October 22, 2014, 11:53:44 am
Seems to just be GOP greatest hits. Drilll Baby Drill, Tax Cuts, Border Wall, More Mideast War, and of course Kill Obamacare.

Interesting how he threw in the old 'stop appointing activist judges' thing as a nod to the Huckabee wing. He also has proposed new constitutional amendment barring judges from overturning SSM bans (good luck getting 38 states approving that). But it shows even Cruz giving up on banning SSM nationwide, which was actually still part of GOP 2012 platform.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona gay marriage ban struck down on: October 17, 2014, 12:27:42 pm
Sedwick said in his ruling that because the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals had already ruled against gay marriage bans in Nevada and Idaho, he did not need to give a lengthy reason

They are just phoning it in at this point. I look forward to the next judge's ruling

Quote
"The state ban is overturned because reasons"
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 07:31:45 pm
It could be the spark for a new space race, ironically back to the moon. The Russians, Chinese and Indian space agencies have all talked mining Helium-3 on the moon.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 05:04:29 pm
Fusion could also lead to commercializing the moon due to Helium 3.  This could also become an international fight over land mineral rights on the moon. Plus environmentalists won't like strip mining moon
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush versus Mitt Romney on: October 15, 2014, 03:43:30 pm
The scenario where Romney runs is if by Aug/Sept 2015 there is no viable establishment candidate and he feels it is his duty to run to save the party.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment GOP candidate will be 2016's Rudy Giuliani/Jon Hunstman? on: October 15, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
Jeb has not been in politics for a long time really and isn't ready for today's GOP. His recent flop in NC only shows how he is out of step with the party.
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