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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Rick Perry give trouble to Walker, Cruz, and Huckabee in Iowa? on: May 24, 2015, 04:40:03 pm
Of course he can. In 2012 it took just 24.5 to win IA. Romney and Santorum essentially tied (with Romney initially declared winner) but imagine if Perry dropped out before IA. He got 10.3, Santorum would probably have got more of that vote so he could have been the decisive winner of IA and had better momentum maybe a win in SC too.

Point is, in a field this big they all effect each other.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: Clinton Foundation Raised $2b on: May 23, 2015, 06:55:48 pm
As noted by Politifact
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/apr/29/rush-limbaugh/rush-limbaugh-says-clinton-foundation-spends-just-/

Quote
When most people in the charitable world think of foundations, they think of organizations that give away a lot of money in the form of grants to others who go out and do good works. The Clinton foundation works differently -- it keeps its money in house and hires staff to carry out its own humanitarian programs.
.....
The foundation says its own employees are doing its charitable work. The annual report -- which, remember, includes both the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Health Access Initiative -- says that 7 percent of expenditures were spent on "management and expenses" and 4.5 percent for "fundraising." (The numbers on the 990s for the two entities are in the same ballpark.)

Add those two percentages together and you get almost 12 percent; subtract that from 100 percent and you get the magic 88 percent figure the foundation cited.
.....
To offer some context, spending 88 percent of expenses on charitable programs, as the Clinton foundation says it does, would actually be pretty good by industry standards. Parsons said the average reported across all organizations in the National Center for Charitable Statistics is 81 percent

It seems that the right is trying to do to the Clinton Foundation what Obama and the Dems did to Romney and Bain Capital. But it was easy to turn Bain into a bogeyman for Wall Street greed and outsourcing. The CGI has had bipartisan support and is clearly doing good work around the world, and (most importantly) the Clintons aren't financially getting rich off of it (at least directly).

This seems to be yet another Clinton issue that is only a scandal in the eyes of Limbaugh listening world.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Trump Run? on: May 21, 2015, 10:50:37 pm
We all know that Donald Trump would make the best, most powerful, awesomest, biggest, goldest, finest President ever. Just ask him!  But will he honor us with an actual run?  To get into the debates you have to be an official candidate, not just have a PAC or exploratory committee but the real thing (FEC filing, paid staffers, etc). He keeps saying that he will surprise the people who think he isn't running.

It seems that if he runs, he will be in the debates (bumping out another lower tier candidate). And he is not afraid to attack his fellow Republicans. Just look at his Twitter feed. He has gone after Walker, Bush, Rubio and even this week he has been attacking Kasich.

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 09:58:40 pm
Ah yes, of course. But when there are 15 official candidates by the end of next month how will PPP decide who is in or out?. This limit is one clear reason why the IVR polls won't be factored in to the debate criteria
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 08:06:52 pm
Why is PPP still excluding Fiorina, who is an officially declared candidate
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: May 21, 2015, 08:05:24 pm
Press releases
Here are the press releases with the criteria details on the FOX and CNN debates:
http://press.foxnews.com/2015/05/fox-news-and-facebook-partner-to-host-first-republican-presidential-primary-debate-of-2016-election/

http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2015/05/20/cnn-ronald-reagan-presidential-foundation-and-library-announce-groundbreaking-format-for-republican-presidential-primary-debate/

Of note:
- CNN lists the qualifying polls which are essentially all the live phone polls (so no YouGov, PPP, Rasmussen, Gravis, etc).
- Fox later clarified that in the event of a tie for 10th, both would be allowed (not clear how many decimal places (if any) they calculate the polls to determine a tie.
- CNN has detailed a tie-breaker rule
- FOX will give those who don't make the top 10 airtime (as opposed to CNN who give them a separate debate)
- CNN says that if only 14 or fewer candidates qualify, they may limit the main debate to 8 and move the remainder to the lower tier debate

Santorum not happy
Also, Sanotrum has attacked the FOX criteria as 'arbitrary'
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/rick-santorum-rips-fox-news-over-arbitrary-debates-rules-20150521
Quote
"I'm probably the best person to comment on this. In January of 2012 I was at 4 percent in the national polls, and I won the Iowa caucuses. I don't know if I was last in the polls, but I was pretty close to last," Santorum said. "And so the idea that a national poll has any relationship to the viability of a candidate—ask Rudy Giuliani that. Ask Phil Gramm that. You can go on down the list of folks who were doing real well in national polls and didn't win a single state and were not a viable candidate."
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz: Why is the left obsessed with sex? on: May 20, 2015, 05:03:43 pm
Ted Cruz is right. He is not as bad as ISIS. Maybe that can be his slogan.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal going ahead with new 'religious freedom' bill on: May 20, 2015, 03:26:01 am
UPDATE: Bill dies in committee so Jindal issues executive order
Quote
Gov. Bobby Jindal issued an executive order capturing the intent -- and much of the language -- of religious freedom legislation that effectively died hours earlier on Tuesday (May 19) in a House committee, after legislators voted 10-2 not to advance the bill.
....
Officials from the tourism and business industry were the first to testify against the bill. New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau CEO Stephen Perry called the bill "a radioactive, poisonous message for (tourism)."

The state could lose millions -- up to $65 million a year -- in state tax revenue because of lost business as a result the bill and perceptions that it is discriminatory, Perry said. "(Let's) not create discriminatory elements in the marketplace that destroy our economy.'
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/05/gov_bobby_jindal_issues_religi.html

It's kind of amazing how desperate he is to get the attention of the socons in Iowa.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your criteria for including candidates to the GOP debates? on: May 20, 2015, 01:28:12 am
Again it is up to FOX, so the RNC actually is just consulting. And FOX is not going to mess around with random selection. They got enough crap when they excluded Ron Paul from a NH debate in 2008 but invited Giuliani and Thompson (even though Paul was outperforming both).

Any way you slice it, some are going to not make the cut, It might be the only woman, the Indian-American, the popular governor of the most important swing state, the guy who won IA last time and/or the only gay Senator (jk).
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your criteria for including candidates to the GOP debates? on: May 20, 2015, 01:17:34 am
there is no way the RNC can control if Fiorina gets on the stage. The criteria is going to be announced soon. Even if she fits the criteria today, there is no guarantee she still will by the time of the debate.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your criteria for including candidates to the GOP debates? on: May 20, 2015, 12:55:24 am
They can't use money because many candidates wont even have FEC filings (or at least filings covering a full quarter), even if it wasn't a ludicrous idea. Also technically each debate media partner makes the criteria decision "in consultation" with the RNC, so they have plausible deniability for anyone not making the cut.

The latest reports say they are thinking of using polling level and a cap (say 12). That seems to make sense. However even with a polling criteria and a cap, how they calculate it matters. Looking at RCP, HuffPollster and WaPo gives you a different ranking of the top 12, with the 12th being different in each. So as of now Fiorina, Jindal Graham would be in or out depending on how you calculate it, unless you include Trump, then they are all out. Of course Pataki, Gilmore, King and Erlich would all also be out.  I think they should reduce the number by one for each debate so they will be down to seven candidates for the last debate before Iowa, kind of like Survivor voting one off the island each episode.
 
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mad Men is back on: May 20, 2015, 12:42:57 am
Coke, it's the real thing!

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the Republican Nomination Battle Go to the Conventions on: May 19, 2015, 08:51:19 pm
while i agree it is unlikely, this election has the elements of a perfect storm that could make it happen:
- record amount of money spent, especially with unlimited superpacs
- largest array of candidates
- no single frontrunner

All it will take is 3-4 viable and well-financed candidates surviving Super-Tuesday, especially if one of them has particular regional appeal like Huckabee could in the South.

But I still only give it a <10% chance
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 19, 2015, 08:00:06 pm
But that gets to my point about Sans a. After enduring what she had to endure, is she still on Team Littlefinger?

Also, what game is he playing with Cercei? He has painted himself into a corner and can't continue playing all sides. Sometime soon he has to openly defy the Lannisters or help them against Stannis
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Texas: Abbott signs law to restrict local fracking regulations on: May 19, 2015, 06:58:11 pm
It has been argued that the GOP is dominant because they control so many states, but that ignores that Dems dominate at the city level, with the vast majority of big and medium city mayors and city councils.

So when the GOP talks about states' rights they don't mean local rights they mean STATES, and specifically not Federal and not City.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: 'You Can't Enjoy Your Civil Liberties If You're In A Coffin' on: May 19, 2015, 06:53:13 pm
So Christie is pissing off the Libertarians with this (and his vow to go after the legal pot states)
He has pissed off the olds with talk of taking away their Social Security
He has pissed off the neocons by saying Iraq war was a mistake
He has pissed off the socons by dropping his appeal to ban SSM
He has pissed off moderates by switching positions on path to citizenship (killing his supposed crossover GE appeal)

He is on a roll!
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 19, 2015, 06:47:44 pm
So it looks like we have

6 announced
Cruz
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Huckabee
Paul

4 announced they will announce
Graham
Pataki
Perry
Santorum

2 certain to announce
Bush
Walker

3 almost certain to announce
Christie
Jindal
Kasich

That gets you to 15

Then there are still 4 maybes
Trump
Erlich
Gilmore
King
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cisneros: Castro only option for Hillary on: May 19, 2015, 06:38:42 pm
The question is: what is a bigger boost: Castro's boost to Hispanic vote or Kaine's boost to VA?

While I wouldn't say Kaine guarantees Virginia, but he probably assures a small, but significant bump. I also think Kaine plays decently in the Midwest, which is where Republicans would likely look to make up Electoral Votes. He's also smart, competent, and a nice guy.

Seeing as the Hispanic vote is fairly concentrated in both Texas and California, I'm not sure Castro would really boost the ticket in terms of Electoral Votes.


Taaa Daaaaa.....you just won prize of the day.

Contrary to popular belief the Hispanic vote doesnt matter. It is concentrated in states like TX, CA, IL, NJ. This is why Romney needed to win 72% of the hispanic vote in order to win in 2012.

Hispanic elligable voters are a very significant percent in 3 of 10 battleground states: FL (17.1%),
NV (15.9%), and CO (14.2%). In NM they are 40.1% of eligible voters, which is why that state has gone from a swing state Bush won once to a state the GOP doesn't even try to win anymore.

As for Romney, it is quite simple. If he was able to get the same percentages with non-whites as Bush got in 2004 he would have won the election. Romney actually outperformed Bush with whites.  Basically, the GOP cannot win in 2016 by relying on improvements with the white vote (even if that is possible against Hillary). They need non-white votes and Hispanics may be the largest portion of the non-whites and have shown the largest swings (and BTW, Asians have tended to vote similarly to Hispanics in recent presidential elections.

Of course most of the GOP elite know they need to look to non-whites for 2016 victory, but there are some like bob here who think that all white all the time is the true path and future of the GOP. Good luck with that.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is handling the Iraq War question the best? on: May 19, 2015, 02:25:23 am
Christie, actually
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 18, 2015, 08:41:30 pm
the whole religious freedom flap in IN seems to have vaporized all the low level buzz for Pence. I wonder if - when he signed that bill - he thought he was actually giving his Presidential chances a boost, hoping he would be rewarded by the religious right.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 18, 2015, 07:02:18 pm
I thought Littlefinger's plan would come to fruition before any wedding so I was surprised by the end.  Now not sure what LF is up to. And is Sansa still his ally?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb has answered over 800 questions from voters/press compared to Hillary's 13. on: May 18, 2015, 05:45:33 pm
Two things can be true at the same time:
1 Jeb completely f--ked up last week while talking to the press
2 Hillary is avoiding the press

Sorry Team Bush, but the second thing doesn't negate the first
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cisneros: Castro only option for Hillary on: May 18, 2015, 12:30:03 am
I'm sorry but clearly you are forgetting that when Putin reared his head the first thing he saw was Sarah Palin, not some mayor from Texas.

That being said I suspect the Dems wished they had a Hispanic senator or governor, so they have to look to the cabinet or the House. Given the choice, the cabinet is probably more impressive. It would be hard to say that he is any less experienced as Paul Ryan, and he will be the same as as Ryan was when he was nominated.

The question is: what is a bigger boost: Castro's boost to Hispanic vote or Kaine's boost to VA?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 18, 2015, 12:19:42 am
Kasich should get in while the 'Jeb is in trouble' iron is hot. Also the later he waits, the more he risks not even making the cut for the debates.

Graham has the same debate cutoff problem. I guess tonight he announced that tomorrow he will announce his future announcement date.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush claims gay marriage isn't protected by the Constitution on: May 17, 2015, 09:51:10 pm
Yes the issue of SSM will vanish from the political debate as soon as SCOTUS makes its ruling, just look what happened to abortion.

Certainly Bush, Walker, Kasich and some others may not want to talk about this issue but they are going to be asked about it and some of their GOP opponents, notably Huckabee, Jindal, Cruz and Santorum, are going to talk about it. They are going to talk about a constitutional amendment allowing states to ban SSM (which Cruz is pushing) and about Religious Freedom Laws (like Jindal's is pushing). They will also be asked about states ignoring SCOTUS (like Huckabee and Carson are pushing). And do they think the GOP platform should still call for a "Federal Marriage Amendment" as it does now?

And beyond SSM, what about ENDA both that the state and Federal level?

Sorry, gay rights is not going away when SCOTUS rules on SSM (regardless of the ruling).
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