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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NVGOP moves to dump caucuses on: Today at 08:21:27 pm
BTW, CO is also looking to switch from caucus to primary

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2015/04/22/colorado-considering-switch-to-presidential-primary-in-2016/119300/
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NVGOP moves to dump caucuses on: Today at 07:07:36 pm
The Establishment Strikes Back.  I wonder if Indies will be allowed to vote in it.

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Martin O'Malley lays down the law - uses profanity-laced attacks on Republicans on: Today at 05:19:58 am
well it is

Quote
While many proposals in the 2012 election – including Mitt Romney’s – aimed for revenue neutrality when estimated on a conventional (sometimes called a static) basis, the Rubio and Lee proposal would lose trillions of dollars in revenues over the next decade when estimated using the conventional approach.

Instead, Rubio and Lee aim to make up the lost revenue through economic growth.  The dynamic scoring analysis by the Tax Foundation estimates that the plan would raise GDP by 15 percent and would raise revenue in the long term once those growth effects are taken into account.

The Tax Foundation’s growth estimate is, to put it mildly, inconsistent with standard economic analysis.

"inconsistent with standard economic analysis" is policy wonk nerd talk for 'bull$#!t"

http://taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org/2015/03/11/rubio-lee-hints-tax-reforms-troubling-direction/#sthash.B2VaScua.dpuf
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: 61% support SSM; 1st time more than 6 in 10 support on: Today at 02:12:40 am
All demographic groups support it now except conservatives, republicans, and seniors.

Ethnic minorities tend to be opposed IIRC.

Actually majorities of all races are for SSM.but the numbers for whites are a bit higher. Also women are slightly more pro SSM
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: National poll by YouGov: Hillary losing ground; Bush leads GOP field on: April 23, 2015, 06:24:30 pm
They also include a GOP matchup of just the three declared candidates:

Rubio 36%
Cruz 26%
Paul 21%


I hope other pollsters adopt this declared candidates match up option
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More shady Clinton foundation stuff uncovered on: April 23, 2015, 05:49:48 pm
I doubt they will ever find a quid pro quo, but there can be no doubt that big donors to Clinton Foundation had the ear of the SecState Clinton. It just feeds the narrative that she is an old school pol.
This is pretty lazy thinking.

I wonder when the media is going to report an all the good things done with the money the Clinton Foundation raised. I guess I won't hold by breath.

I agree that Clinton Foundation donations isn't the same thing as old fashioned pay for play corruption. My point is that these stories play into the Clinton narrative and reinforce it.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More shady Clinton foundation stuff uncovered on: April 23, 2015, 05:43:54 pm
I doubt they will ever find a quid pro quo, but there can be no doubt that big donors to Clinton Foundation had the ear of the SecState Clinton. It just feeds the narrative that she is an old school pol.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Immgration backtrack wipes out Rubio Latino support on: April 23, 2015, 05:34:22 pm
Marco Rubio is touted as the GOPs best hope to win Latino voters, but by backing off his support for comprehensive immigration reform he may have lost that potential. Latino Decisions did a poll of Latino voters (right before his announcement) and found that when told about his positions, he only gets 29% support (ony 2 points better than Romney in 2012).

Quote
President Obama’s executive actions on immigration (both DACA and DAPA, that were the result of years of Congressional inaction), have been met with overwhelming support from Latino voters of all political stripes.  Senator Rubio has said it is time to “wind down” the DACA program, saying it was  “wrong in the first place” and called DAPA a “horrifying precedent” that violates the constitution.

Senator Rubio’s participation in the Senate “Gang of Eight” (that managed to pass a comprehensive immigration bill in the Senate only to see the House refuse to take it up for a vote) does not provide political cover on this issue because: 1) After the bill did not pass, his attention turned to “enforcement first” policy, and 2) his opposition to the temporary relief programs President Obama has advanced is problematic for a large number of Latinos who view immigration as a gateway issue.

Our research shows that Latino support for Rubio was largely contingent upon his immigration positions. If he took a leadership role in advancing comprehensive reform (as he did with the Gang of 8 ), 54 percent of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for him in the next election (with 21 percent “very likely). However, if Rubio focused on security/border control priorities (which does not address the status of the 11 million undocumented currently living in the U.S.) Latino support for Rubio dropped to only 29 percent; a substantial difference of 25 points.



9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal going ahead with new 'religious freedom' bill on: April 23, 2015, 05:19:10 pm
Update: Jindal has NYT Op-ed titled "I’m Holding Firm Against Gay Marriage"

Here is a choice quote:
Quote
In Indiana and Arkansas, large corporations recently joined left-wing activists to bully elected officials into backing away from strong protections for religious liberty. It was disappointing to see conservative leaders so hastily retreat on legislation that would simply allow for an individual or business to claim a right to free exercise of religion in a court of law.

snip

As the fight for religious liberty moves to Louisiana, I have a clear message for any corporation that contemplates bullying our state: Save your breath.

Jindal seems to believe there is an opportunity to be the anti-SSM equivalent of this:



It is clear that he doesn't want to play in the executive governance primary with Walker, Bush, Kasich?)...but to dive into the I-heart-Jesus-most primary with Cruz, Huckabee and Santorum.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox: RUBIOMENTUM on: April 23, 2015, 05:05:40 pm
Announcements clearly make a difference. We may not really know the real starting point until July or August when everyone should be announced and gone through their bump
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 04:50:21 pm
Even with a ton more money, that just means more for the 10 or so battlegrounds. In 2012 50% of the ad money was spent on just 3 states (FL, OH, VA). If there was a ton of extra money they can just spread it to the 7 other battlegrounds so they end up getting as much spend/EV (plus maybe expand the map a bit). There is a lot of room to go maxing out states like NC and PA before they start buying ads in Texas and California. Just look for yourself.

Again this 50 state thing is all part of the Clinton 2012 obsession with fixing all their 2008 mistakes. Just look at the campaign so far, it is all about being different than last time. This is why they are doing it...(from USA Today article "Obama's political team out-organized Clinton" from 2008)
Quote
Plouffe was the mastermind of Obama's long-range campaign plan that looked beyond the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries that Clinton had predicted would deliver the nomination to her. He dispatched staff to states that Clinton's campaign overlooked, particularly small caucus states where intensive organization produced wins that swelled Obama's delegate lead.

A Gephardt guy, Plouffe had worked on campaigns that went broke, so he was notoriously cheap. Obama attracted a talented staff willing to work for much less than they could have made with Clinton. Plouffe carefully minded the bank account to preserve enough money to keep running after the wildly expensive Super Tuesday contests while Clinton's campaign went broke. She had to lend it $11.4 million to stay afloat.

In the month after Super Tuesday, Obama won 11 straight contests and took a delegate lead that Clinton has not been able to erase.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 04:31:13 pm
She can't say it's about the general. That would feed the critics. It's about the general.

so you think that team clinton is going to spend significant time, money and resources in all 50 states in the general? To what end? Any $ spent in Idaho or Hawaii is a $ not spent in FL/OH/VA and the other core battlegrounds.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 03:06:03 pm
Guys, read the article. This is not about the general.

Quote
The campaign also said this grassroots organizing program is part of its effort to ensure that they "will be ready to compete and win the primary or caucus" in every state.

Team Clinton is just insuring that they avoid the same problems of 2008.

And presidential campaigns don't really care about down ballot. That is what the DSCC and DCCC are for.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 02:31:24 am
the Hillary campaign has been talking up how they are not taking the primary for granted. Obama beat her in 08 by out organizing, especially in small states and caucuses. So this time they will go all out for every delegate.  Obviously by summer 2016 they will be focusing on general and a handful of battlegrounds. Probably same set as Oboma 2012 plus one or two to show they are expandithe map

This is the map: http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bKRb The expand the map thing is DWS DNC bs. Dear Robby, you are not working with McAuliffe anymore nor running against the Cooch in an off-year. Realism, realism, realism, realism.

Including IN on your map is expanding the map. Obama didn't target IN in 2012, even though he won it in 2008. 

The 2012 states were FL, OH, VA, CO, IA, NV, NH, WI, NC, and PA.  Hillary will spend effort in the same list, but for NV, PA, WI and NH they will spend only as much as needed to counter GOP spend And if GOP ignores any of them so will Hillary.  But I bet team Hillary will dabble in one or two Romney states (in addition to NC) to at least test it out and maybe troll enough to get GOP to spend even more defending them.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 02:08:24 am
the Hillary campaign has been talking up how they are not taking the primary for granted. Obama beat her in 08 by out organizing, especially in small states and caucuses. So this time they will go all out for every delegate.  Obviously by summer 2016 they will be focusing on general and a handful of battlegrounds. Probably same set as Obama 2012 plus one or two to show they are expanding the map
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ann Coulter: "Still No Reports of 'Hillary Fever' Outbreaks" on: April 23, 2015, 12:05:39 am
Let's not do posts every time someone like Coulter, Maher, Limbaugh, etc. says something. This is going to be long election season and the candidates and their campaigns will say enough stupid things on their own. That should be enough for us to mull over
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carly Fiorina to launch May 4 on: April 22, 2015, 06:52:53 pm
Will she also announce the cabinet position she is really hoping to get? 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot on: April 22, 2015, 06:38:25 pm
In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.

If Clinton carries VA and NH how does GOP get to 270? (Assuming they pick up FL, OH, CO,  and IA)

You are left with....
 WI (unlikely w/o Walker and still difficult with him),
NV? (Looks more and more like NM which the GOP gave up on in 2012)
PA? (Much bigger and more expensive than NH and Hillary is better fit than Obama)

after that you get into fantasy land of turning MI, MN, OR, or NM into a tipping point. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Fiorina/rubio is the best ticket for the GOP on: April 22, 2015, 03:46:31 pm
Maybe it is just me, but I find Fiorina singularly unimpressive as a Senate candidate. She basically said nothing of interest, and there was no raison d'ętre to her candidacy. She is one of those pelicans, like most of them, who is around to be somebody, rather than become a change agent to push public policy issues that need pushing, that are not being given enough attention, or are being mishandled. That is why most politicians flunk my little test when I ask them what issue they really care about, that they will focus on, and what will they do, that has not been done, to creatively move the ball on it. Most just give me a blank stare, and then filibuster with BS. Sad.

Agreed. she is the worst kind of pelican.

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Obamacare be more of an asset or a liability for Hillary? on: April 22, 2015, 03:35:51 pm
The proof that it will be an asset can be seen already in that the GOPers (with the exception of Cruz) aren't talking about it.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Plurality now approves of Obamacare on: April 21, 2015, 06:06:35 pm
Of course Obamacare has some 'losers', notably those on Cadillac plans and young healthy people who dont want insurance or want those cheap crappy plans that got cancelled.  My point is that this doesn't add up to 22% of Americans and more notably it isn't heavily distributed to Republicans. There are just more Republicans that think they are being hurt. My bet is that this is mostly because of the misinformation in right wing media and especially the lie that Obamacare was cutting Medicare benefits (used extensively in the last three elections).

Again this chart shows that there is a high correlation between party and lack of knowledge on the law:
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top Christie ally defects to Bush on: April 21, 2015, 05:37:46 pm
BTW, his approval ratings in NJ hit another low last week.  Once the indictments of Christie's staff/appointees come out I think he is done. I agree his ego will push him to get in. He has obviously been planning this run for a long time and it is hard to let go. But campaigns need $millions and can he really get people to pony up? With Kasich now sending signals and Rubio in the race, the establishment types have a lot of choices.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? Round 2 on: April 21, 2015, 05:23:43 pm
As I have said before, some safe/acceptable middle of the road guy from VA or CO. I still think Warner is best bet.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Plurality now approves of Obamacare on: April 21, 2015, 05:21:23 pm
Yea, "No Impact" should really be 80-90% in all three categories.
True, unless you have kids and/or a pre-existing condition then you are almost sure to be in the 'helped' category.

But the worst thing is that there is a massive partisan divide in the 'hurt' category. I would love to see how those people said they were hurt. Sure some (very few) people come out losers, but there is no way that it is weighted by party to such a significant amount.

Many people who already had generous employer-sponsored plans that exceeded the minimum Obamacare standards are finding that they now cover less with more cost sharing.  They are generally upper-middle class with white collar jobs and probably vote R outside of the Northeast and CA.

yes I am aware of that but there is no way that adds up to 38% of Republicans. I suspect that most of that 38% think their taxes have been raised and/or Medicare benefits have been cut (both of which are untrue, unless they were on one of those 'Cadillac' plans). Just look at the chart over awareness of the costs of Obamacare, the ignorance goes up most with Republicans.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Plurality now approves of Obamacare on: April 21, 2015, 05:13:44 pm
Yea, "No Impact" should really be 80-90% in all three categories.
True, unless you have kids and/or a pre-existing condition then you are almost sure to be in the 'helped' category.

But the worst thing is that there is a massive partisan divide in the 'hurt' category. I would love to see how those people said they were hurt. Sure some (very few) people come out losers, but there is no way that it is weighted by party to such a significant amount.
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