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August 25, 2016, 03:15:09 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: What will happen to Trump supporters going into the 2018 midterms should he lose on: August 24, 2016, 09:45:34 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244295.0
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Thoughts on MA Governor Charlie Baker? on: August 24, 2016, 12:26:35 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244249.0
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump to supporters: 'go out and watch' on election day on: August 22, 2016, 08:50:30 pm
Quote
"You've got to get every one of your friends. You've got to get every one of your family. You've got to get everybody to go out and watch. And go out and vote," Trump said at the end of a rally Monday in Akron, Ohio.

"And when I say watch, you know what I'm talking about, right? You know what I'm taking about. I think you got to go out and you got to watch."
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/donald-trump-rigged-system-hillary-clinton-go-out-and-watch-you-know-what-im-talking-about
 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Cancels Portland Oregon Fundraiser and Rally on: August 22, 2016, 05:07:49 pm
He also cancelled an event in Nevada on Friday, so something is going on.  He called into fox and friends this am and has been tweeting. He is scheduled to appear on O'Reilly tonight so maybe we will learn more. 
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 12-year old running Trump campaign in Denver suburb county on: August 22, 2016, 03:09:47 pm

Jefferson has a population of around 1/2 million and is the fourth biggest county in the state. It is a swing county that Bush won twice and Obama won twice. 
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: August 22, 2016, 12:11:52 pm
New Clinton TV spot titled "Just One" goes after Trump's temperament.

https://youtu.be/UqpQ4neS68g
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton will not win with Obama 2008 margins... on: August 21, 2016, 08:34:38 pm
Please, enough with the repetitive posts. Especially linking to old articles.

Topic locked
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson: Romney, Leavitt "guaranteed" places in my administration on: August 21, 2016, 03:11:51 pm
I wonder what Romney thinks of Johnson sort of trying to reverse-engineer an endorsement. I always thought eventually the NeverTrumpers would rally around Johnson but with McWhatshisface in the race now, the NeverTrumpers again have a choice which will again paralyze them into indecision, just like during the primaries.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders Returning to Campaign Trail for Clinton on: August 20, 2016, 04:26:11 pm
Clinton needs help with the youngs...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-and-trump-are-losing-a-lot-of-young-voters/
Quote
18- to 29-year-olds seem to be flirting with third-party candidates more than usual this year. Both Johnson and Stein are polling in the double digits, and Johnson is nearly pulling the same percentage of the under-30 vote as Trump. That shouldnít necessarily to be too surprising given that younger voters are more likely to identify as independents than are older voters. Younger voters were also much more likely to vote for independent Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary than other age groups were.

With an unusually high share of under-30 voters saying theyíll vote third party, Clintonís margin over Trump among this age group is lower than weíd expect given how Obama did in the last two election cycles.
....

Clinton leads by enough overall right now that underperforming a bit with young voters isnít a big deal. If the election becomes closer, however, Clinton may need help appealing to this group.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: "I regret my comments which I have caused others personal pains." on: August 19, 2016, 05:46:05 pm
I suspect Trump's new campaign manager (who is a pollster) gave him the facts that if he doesn't improve his numbers with women who should be voting Republican, he is going to lose. As noted this week by WaPo...
Quote
white Republican women with college degrees view Trump much more negatively than do white men without. In our most recent poll, a third of white Republican women with degrees viewed Trump negatively compared with 18 percent of men without degrees. Nearly 1 in 5 Republican women with degrees view Trump strongly negatively.

So you get his attempt at outreach to blacks (which is really aimed at white women who want to see him show empathy), you get his trip to LA flood and this apparent show of contrition. It all adds up to trying to appeal more to white women, starting with white republican women.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Manafort resigns! on: August 19, 2016, 05:36:02 pm
Quote
Paul Manafortís decision to resign as Donald Trumpís campaign chairman wasnít entirely of his own volition, according to Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway.

ďHe was asked, and he indeed tendered his resignation today,Ē
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-asked-to-resign-donald-trump-227222#ixzz4HorGMl22
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / GE Wk 3: Who won the week? on: August 19, 2016, 05:19:08 pm
We just wrapped up the third week out of the fourteen full weeks between the conventions and the election. So who won the week and why?


Past performance
Week 1: Clinton: 95.7% / Trump 4.3% / Tied 0%
Week 2: Clinton: 91.8% / Trump 3.7% / Tied 4.5%
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to Air First TV Ads of General Election Campaign on: August 18, 2016, 12:48:07 pm
Quote
The ads are set to begin Friday in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
....
Trumpís campaign told POLITICO earlier this week the GOP presidential nominee would begin advertising in five states: the four where it began placing Thursday morning, but also Virginia.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/trump-tv-ads-florida-north-carolina-ohio-pennsylvania-227155#ixzz4HhuRsVjg
 
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump on Twitter: "They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!" on: August 18, 2016, 12:44:11 pm
If I had to guess someone explained to him how his supporter profile is similar to those who voted for Brexit and Brexit won when pundits predicted it would lose...and therefore he is going to win.  It's simple math people.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Donald Trump on: August 17, 2016, 02:41:45 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243710.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump shakes up campaign yet again, sidelines Manafort on: August 17, 2016, 11:29:57 am
Shakeup? What shakeup?
Quote
    COSTELLO: Donald Trump just shook up his campaign for the second time in a two-month period.

    PIERSON: No he didnít! Donald Trump added people to his campaign.

    COSTELLO: Oh come on, Katrina.

    PIERSON: No oneís out. When you shake up your campaign that usually means someone is out, Carol. This was announced as an expansionÖ but for some reason, only CNN is reporting that some sort of a shakeup is happening.
    Ö
    COSTELLO: Even Fox news is calling this a shakeup! Even Fox news is calling this a shake up.

    PIERSON: [pause] But thatís what Iím saying, itís not a shake up. Itís simply an expansion.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/cnns-costello-pushes-pierson-to-admit-staff-overhaul-even-fox-news-is-calling-it-a-shakeup/
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Trump waiting for? on: August 16, 2016, 03:03:55 pm
I recall a story 4 months back or so, that the Clinton campaign and SuperPAC had "blocked out" huge chunks of cheaper ad slots early in the campaign in swing states to force the cost up for the Republicans.

Is that factually correct and if so, is that having an impact on potential Trump campaign ad buy decisions?

It has some but they aren't cut out, but it probably hurts outside groups more than the Trump campaign. Actual campaigns are entitled to the discount rate. And there are a lot of advertising slots available in general for most big media markets it is hard to box someone out.  Remember back last year, just two fantasy football websites spent over $200M in advertising in the fall. 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Trump waiting for? on: August 16, 2016, 02:50:21 pm
From NBC's First Read this morning...
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-clinton-has-owned-airwaves-general-election-n631706


Quote
And it raises some important questions for the Trump campaign. When will it FINALLY start airing advertisements (with him trailing in key states and nationally 84 days to go until Election Day)? What is Trump doing with his campaign money (after the New York Times reported two weeks ago that Trump and the GOP had raised a combined $82 million last month)? And will any other outside groups come to Trump's defense?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / PredictIt has market on how many 'Pants on Fire' statements Trump will make on: August 16, 2016, 02:33:14 pm
I just noticed that PredictIt has a new market for "How many totally false statements will Trump make in August?". They are using Politifact's 'Pants of Fire' ratings as the measure and basing it on when he said the statement (not when they report on it). I have set up the poll in this thread to mirror the market choices. 

He had four in July, but he is already up to four in August, so betting on that choice is way down.

So, what would you buy 4, 5, 6,7 or 8+?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 16, 2016, 02:07:30 pm
Would it be a 'gotcha' question to ask the candidates questions that are on the current US Naturalization test?  There are 100 possible questions and they ask 10 and you have to get 6 right.  How would both Clinton and Trump fare with these 10 (real) questions...

How many changes or amendments are there to the Constitution?
How many representatives are there in Congress?
For how long do we elect the representatives?
Can you name the thirteen original states?
Who said, "Give me liberty or give me death"?
Who was the main writer of the Declaration of Independence?
Who wrote "The Star-Spangled Banner"?
Who has the power to declare war?
In what year was the Constitution written?
What are the first 10 amendments to the Constitution called?




21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Priorities USA to Temporarily Stop Airing Ads in CO, VA and PA on: August 15, 2016, 06:25:22 pm
On the show he said they were both moving the money to other states to "expand the map" and to ramp up registration and GOTV efforts, especially in FL and OH.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump +12 on: August 15, 2016, 05:49:50 pm
As a side note, the poll was done over 3 weeks rather than the traditional shorter time. So I don't know how trustworthy it is. This goes the same for the UT-04 poll, the gubernatorial poll, and the Senate poll, all of which were asked in this same large poll.

Also apparently a lot of the undecideds told Dan Jones that they wanted to just write-in Mitt Romney. I'll have to dig up the tweet where Dan Jones or another pollster mentioned that, but if true, that McMullin guy will have a fun time here.

Today on MTP Daily Steve Kornacki said they told him 14% volunteered they would write in Romney. A Romney endorsement of Johnson or McMullin would be a big deal in UT and certainly make it interesting. Without UT, Trump would need to win FL/OH/PA and one other state (probably IA).
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Giuliani: No terror attacks on US soil before Obama's presidency on: August 15, 2016, 05:31:01 pm
He has been saying this, he got a pants of fire for it back in January

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/jan/08/rudy-giuliani/giuliani-says-there-were-no-domestic-attacks-durin/

but those kinds of things don't matter any more apparently
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPD announces the 5 qualifying polls to make the debate stage on: August 15, 2016, 05:23:33 pm
The CPD didn't adopt the 15% rule until 2000....
Quote
Has the CPD ever used Different Candidate Selection Criteria?
In the 1988, 1992 and 1996 debates, the CPD used a multi-factor set of criteria designed to identify the leading candidates. The criteria were developed based on the work of an advisory panel of distinguished Americans, including individuals not affiliated with any party.
....
While the panel's recommended candidate selection criteria themselves were quite detailed, they included a review of three types of factors: (1) evidence of national organization, (2) signs of national newsworthiness and competitiveness, and (3) indicators of national public enthusiasm or concern, to determine whether a candidate had a realistic chance of election. The criteria did not consider any one piece of evidence to be determinative. Rather, a variety of evidence was to be reviewed in considering whether a particular candidate had a realistic chance of election.  
http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview

Also 1992 was very complicated in regards to Perot who was polling as high as 40% at one point. It had dropped to around 20% when he dropped out in mid July. Then he got back in in early October and there wasn't a lot of polling before the first debate but what little there was he was below 15%, but as noted they weren't using the 15% rule at the time.

And all of that above complication is why they adopted the simple 15% rule...
Quote
Why did the CPD Switch Criteria in 2000?
The more streamlined criteria were adopted to provide greater transparency.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPD announces the 5 qualifying polls to make the debate stage on: August 15, 2016, 05:02:37 pm
15% is 15%, those are the rules. However, a guy from the CPD did say this...
Quote
"If someone came in and let's say he was [polling] at 14.5 percent and the margin of error in five polls was 3 points, we are going to have to sit down and look at it...But right now that person would not be included."

 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-

So even if Johnson was at 14.99999999% the rules say he would not be included, but they are going to be a little flexible. But not 13.5% range flexible.
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