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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Beginning to Accept Obamacare is Here to Stay on: July 24, 2014, 05:20:10 pm
If all the predictions of death panels, death spirals, exploding unemployment, exploding costs, lack of signups, etc does not happen by 2016, will the GOP have any price to pay for being so colossally wrong? They will have had sued Obama over it, shut down the government over it, constantly harped on it for years and by the next general election it will likely be an accepted part of the American healthcare system.

Can they really run on how they are the ones to 'fix' what problems there are?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Rand Paul going to escape his dad? on: July 23, 2014, 03:18:19 pm
The key will be to keep dad under control during the campaign. It will be like with Hillary and Bill in 2008. Anything Bill said or did immediately reflected back on Hillary. So if Ron Paul gives a speech somewhere during the 2016 campaign and says something about how Russia has a right to Crimea or that Heroin should be legal or any other thing, Rand will have to spend a whole news cycle dealing with it.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 23, 2014, 03:15:14 pm
He is definitely going to run and if he can perform well in a couple of debates he will be a contender.

He is still the ideal GOP candidate on paper, conservative evangelical governor from state with good economic story.

His chance go up for each other prominent person choosing not to run (Bush, Christie, Walker, etc)
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The Leftovers on: July 19, 2014, 01:05:30 am
The show is a little slow and kind of depressing but still pretty good. But don't watch it assuming they are going to spend a lot of time exploring the mystery of the disappeared people. Apparently that question will never be answered.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Chris Christie going to run in 2016? on: July 17, 2014, 12:16:57 am
I dont think so. His whole master plan was to set up a dominant position as the bipartisan choice and use that electiblity argument to trump any RINO issues. He was also expecting major financial backing so he can outspend his more conservative rivals.  Now he is left as a RINO with staffers expecting indictments and possibly under investigation himself and without the bipartisan support or big money.  And he doesnt seem to be the kind of guy who would runny a scrappy insurgency campaign and flip flop and pander his way to relevance.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rick Santelli, creator of the Tea Party, gets his pants pulled down on CNBC on: July 15, 2014, 10:03:01 pm
The real question is why does CNBC keep bringing back a guy who has been so colossally and consistently wrong.


7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best GOP position on immigration/DREAM for primary AND general? on: July 15, 2014, 08:43:11 pm
It is not just Hispanics but also Asians. In 2016 it is likely that combined they will account for 15% of the vote. And more importantly both groups have shown a much larger range of swing than Whites and Blacks.

Here is the GOP vote share for each group in last 4 elections...

YEAR    W   B   H   A
2000   55   9   35   41
2004   58   11   44   43
2008   55   4   31   35
2012   59   6   27   26

So even with Romney's pedal to the metal focus on white voters, they could only squeak out 59%, more than Bush Jr. who won in 2004! Even in 1988 when Bush Sr. won in a landslide with race-baiting Willie Horton ads, he only got 60% of whites. So I really don't see how the GOP can just write off non-whites and assume they can keep running up the score with whites in the mid 60s. Especially against Hillary who is...um...white.

Clearly Hispanics and Asians have shown they are true swing voters, or at least they were. The GOP is risking turning them into a solid block for the Dems (just look at what has happened to the GOP in California post Pete Wilson and Prop 187 in 1994, since then GOP vote share among Hispanics in CA has remained in the 20s, Reagan won 45% of CA Hispanics in 1980).

So getting back to the OP point, how can a GOPer thread the needle and be for immigration reform for the general but somehow survive the GOP primary? 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Perry writes WaPo op/ed attacking Rand Paul foreign policy on: July 15, 2014, 05:02:00 am
I think Perry has been playing good politics lately. He is taking on the President and the isolationist wing of the GOP, sending a message to the establishment neocons that he is on their team.

If you compare Perry post 2012 to Palin post 2008, Perry is showing how you come back from being a punchline. He may not completely rehabilitate himself but I still think he has a good shot at 2016 nom
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Best GOP position on immigration/DREAM for primary AND general? on: July 15, 2014, 02:58:52 am
In the post 2012 GOP "autopsy" there was only one policy recommendation - embrace comprehensive immigration reform. The only GOP candidate to win the popular vote since GW Bush in 1988 was Bush Jr. in 2004 who got 40% of the Hispanic vote, and he supported comprehensive immigration reform (but didn't have a GOP primary to worry about). But 4 years later McCain had to renounce his own support for it during the primaries, but he still lost general (with big dip in Hispanic and Asian support). In 2012 you can say that Mitt Romney used his opposition to immigration reform and any kind of DREAM act or benefits to immigrants to win the GOP nomination (lets not forget 'self-deportation').

So how does a GOPer thread the needle? What is the right position on immigration and DREAM Act for 2016? Is there any position that could get a GOPer back into the 40% range of Hispanics and Asians for the general (what is needed to win) that could survive the primaries?

 
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservatives Are Purposely Making Their Cars Spew Black Smoke To Protest Obama on: July 05, 2014, 07:49:08 pm
Obama needs to come out strongly against jumping into the lion pen at the zoo while wearing a meat suit.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul by double digits on: July 04, 2014, 03:45:04 pm
Paul and Cruz used to be lumped together as "Tea Party Republicans" but in the last year or so Paul has done a good job of differentiating himself from Cruz, while at the same time not associating himself with the Bush/Romney/Christie GOP establishment wing.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2014 on: July 04, 2014, 03:41:33 pm
Still Pence, but no one has more than a 10-15% chance at this point. never seen something so wide open.

And I still think Perry is totally underrated. I think he will bounce back.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "lol fox news" - The Megathread on: July 03, 2014, 12:45:17 pm
How they covered unemployment going down to 6.1% (lowest level since Lehman collapse)
On TV

On Web

(its like finding Waldo, but its there if you look hard enough)

via: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/you-know-whos-not-thrilled-about-the-new-jobs-report-fox-news/

Then Fox Business reporter had this tweet
Quote
Charles V Payne        ✔ @cvpayne
Is the jobs number too good for the stock market...equity futures are drifting lower not sure how to react

Thank's Obama!
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: The Case for Mitt `16 on: July 03, 2014, 12:21:56 pm
They whole "My Not Mitt?" thing is just a symptom of the current state of the GOP race with all the potential saviors either flaming out, bad fit or maybe not even interested. However, that just means the race is open for anyone to rise to the top, including some potential dark horses like Pence or Kasich. Once the midterms are over and the dust settles things will be clearer and there will be little or no talk of Mitt 2016.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In what states could a drop in black support for D candidate cause flip to R's? on: July 03, 2014, 12:17:59 pm
One could just as easily ask in what states could a drop in white support for R candidate cause flip to D.

Is any possible drop in black D support greater than potential drop in white support for the Rs?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Iowa Dems consider expanding access to caucuses on: July 02, 2014, 03:55:03 am
the problem is if IA switches to a primary then they wont go first as NH stakes the claim as the 'first primary' so whatever date IA sets for a primary, NH would just leapfrog them. And then NV would jump ahead of that and declare themselves the new first caucus. then maybe IA would change their mind and switch back to caucus and you could have the whole thing starting in December.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS on: June 30, 2014, 01:42:04 pm
Seems like a bizarrely narrow decision given the scope of the logic that it's premised on. I mean, employers can refuse to buy contraception in the case of a religious objection, but a similar religious objection to some other medical treatment holds no water?

It seems that they recognize that declaring corporations to have freedom of religion was a slippery slope (ala Citizens United) so they narrowed both the type of corps (closely held) and really narrowed what they can do (limit contraception coverage). So this wont lead to many of the potentially crazy possibilities that could arise if corporations had 'freedom of religion.' Still a bad ruling but could be much worse. 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: June 26, 2014, 05:14:04 pm
http://m.host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_9d5579ed-039d-5f22-ac98-947469c3c22d.html?mobile_touch=true

This story is, always has been, and will remain nothing but an ill fated political hit job.

Just like with Christie "I wasn't indicted" isn't a compelling bumpersticker. There is a whiff of scandal and corruption and bad headlines about convicted staffers and a 'criminal scheme' that is plenty to be used in a political ad.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Carson & Paul closest to Hillary Clinton on: June 26, 2014, 07:50:13 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Carson runs. In the conservative bubble where he resides everyone is always telling him how great he is and how he should run and he perceives this as god's way of showing him his destiny. He will then get in and once under the microscope he will flame out after saying something stupid.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary getting overexposed? on: June 25, 2014, 02:54:36 pm
Short answer: no. In fact her book tour is exposing that she is out of practice so it is probably helping her. The whole 'flat broke' thing and talking about multiple mortgages shows she really needs to relearn how to talk like a normal human, otherwise she has a semi-Mitt problem.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin is thinking about a 3rd Party candidacy in 2016. on: June 25, 2014, 02:51:13 pm
maybe she will go on another one of those bus tours and attention whore/troll the whole campaign.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tenth Circuit: Gay marriage protected by the Constitution on: June 25, 2014, 02:48:22 pm
This is a BFD. First appellate court level decision, and it is likely more will follow for other circuits. But eventually one of the Fed Appellate courts will rule in favor of a state ban, and that is likely when SCOTUS will take this up and settle it for the whole country.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT Breaking: SEC now investigating Christie admin for securities fraud on: June 24, 2014, 01:48:12 am
With all the legal doubt plus RINO issues plus substandard state performance I can't see how big money donors get behind him.  And he doesn't seem to be the type to run a scrappy underdog grassroots campaign
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Katy Perry pledges to write Hillary a campaign theme song on: June 23, 2014, 01:55:02 pm
from the twitter
Quote
@katyperry
I told hillaryclinton that I would write her a "theme" song if she needs it... 🇺🇸👩🇺🇸👩🇺🇸 http://instagram.com/p/pe0gUfP-Xa/

So Hillary doesn't have to bring back Fleetwood Mac or Celine Dion
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Carson & Paul closest to Hillary Clinton on: June 23, 2014, 01:34:46 pm
Do 38% of Americans know who Ben Carson is?
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