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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention days 3 and 4 **live commentary thread** on: Today at 01:12:23 pm
So the only speaker so far to talk Putin and Russia was Albright yesterday who said...
"a Trump victory in November would be a gift to Vladimir Putin" but that didn't get much attention. Will it be a thing today? Will Obama, Biden or Kain mention it? If not one of them, maybe Leon Panetta. 

I don't think they should overplay it, but I bet someone mentions it in the final two hours.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Current Trump Press Conference: I hope Russia finds Hillary's emails on: Today at 12:37:08 pm
Once again Paul Ryan has to issue a statement on something Trump said...

Quote

House speaker Paul Ryan’s chief communications adviser has distanced the speaker from Donald Trump’s comments encouraging Russia to hack Hillary Clinton’s emails and release them.

“Russia is a global menace led by a devious thug. Putin should stay out of this election,” Brendan Buck told the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/jul/27/democratic-convention-hillary-clinton-nomination-day-three?page=with:block-5798d8dde4b02d2223d82631#block-5798d8dde4b02d2223d82631
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama Clears October Schedule to Campaign for Hil on: Today at 12:30:03 pm
Today Politico has more on Obama's plan. This goes beyond Clinton. He wants to build a legacy by helping candidates up and down the ticket apparently.
Quote
Obama’s preparing a major run of endorsements and campaign stops for statehouse candidates, trying to foster an Obama generation on his way out the door. He’s throwing himself into fundraising, starting Monday with an event for Clinton in Atlanta and with more events being approved weekly. ...
The White House is beginning to plan an October filled with nearly nonstop political travel on behalf of both Clinton — whose campaign aides have in recent months expanded the list of places where they believe he could be helpful — and Senate candidates. Obama’s team is even considering doing some travel specifically on behalf of House candidates.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/barack-obama-convention-legacy-226268#ixzz4FdC9NfG8
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump's comments about Russia hurt him? on: Today at 12:14:36 pm
Not sure how much alone it will hurt, but I think it is becoming part of a bigger story about Trump and Russia. And if the notion that Trump is going to be soft on Russia seeps through, that will hurt him. Especially as Trump has made being tough with other countries (notably China and Mexico) such a big part of his brand.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention days 3 and 4 **live commentary thread** on: Today at 12:06:13 pm
Today's schedule

    4:00PM EDT
    Daniel Driffin, HIV Activist
    Neera Tanden, Center for American Progress Action Fund
    Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (Texas)
    Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico)
    Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (Washington, DC)
    Representative Adam Schiff (California)
    Representative Maxine Waters (California)
    Ilyse Hogue, NARAL
    Representative Judy Chu (California)
    Mayor Andrew Gillum (Tallahassee)
    Brooks Bell, Entrepreneur
    Mayor Bill de Blasio (New York)

    6:00PM EDT
    Representative Ben Ray Lujan (New Mexico)
    Jesse Jackson
    Star Jones, Actor
    Mayor Karen Weaver (Flint, Michigan)
    Representative G.K. Butterfield (North Carolina)
    Stephanie Schriock, EMILY's List
    Senator Harry Reid (Nevada)
    Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (California)
    Representative Ruben Gallego (Arizona)
    Jamie Dorff
    Mayor Mike Duggan (Detroit)
    Former Governor Martin O'Malley (Maryland)
    Sigourney Weaver, Actor
    Governor Jerry Brown (California)
    Lee Daniels, Director
    Orlando Night Club Survivors and Family
    Senator Chris Murphy (Connecticut)
    Erica Smegielski, Daughter of Sandy Hook Principal
    Former Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey (Philadelphia)
    Angela Bassett, Actor
    Mother Emanuel Church Survivors
    Former Representative Gabby Giffords (Arizona) and Mark Kelly
    Rear Admiral John Hutson (Ret.)
    Kristin Kavanaugh
    Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta
    Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio)
    Jill Biden
    Vice President Joe Biden
    Mayor Kasim Reed (Atlanta)
    Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (New York)

    10:00PM EDT
    Senator Tim Kaine (Virginia)
    Sharon Belkofer
    President Barack Obama
    Rev. Gabriel Salguero
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: McAuliffe say Clinton is willing to walk back on TPP. Then reverses his comments on: Today at 12:03:24 pm
We can assume McAuliffe has been escorted into the dungeon underneath the Wells Fargo Center, joining Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the most roudy Bernie delegates.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Current Trump Press Conference: I hope Russia finds Hillary's emails on: Today at 12:00:10 pm
This is a little weird....
Quote
Statement from Governor Mike Pence

“The FBI will get to the bottom of who is behind the hacking. If it is Russia and they are interfering in our elections, I can assure you both parties and the United States government will ensure there are serious consequences. That said, the Democrats singularly focusing on who might be behind it and not addressing the basic fact that they've been exposed as a party who not only rigs the government, but rigs elections while literally accepting cash for federal appointments is outrageous. The American people now have absolute and further proof of the corruption that exists around Hillary Clinton. It should disqualify her from office, if the media did their job."

First hint that at some point Pence might go rogue?

strangely this statement is on the official Trump Pence website.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Clinton's convention bounce, based on Tuesday night on: Today at 10:37:33 am
It shouldn't be surprising Trump got a decent bounce because this year there are more than  twice as many people saying they are undecided or going to vote third party. So both Trump and Clinton have a bigger pool of people to bring in with their conventions.  So I would say 4-5% depending on how the rest of the week goes
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Franklin Foer: the DNC hack is Watergate, but worse on: Today at 10:22:33 am
Foreign powers attempting to hack is routine.  I remember a report from 2012 where the Romney VP vetting team were only allowed non networked computers because their other computers were under regular attack. What is new is a foreign power using one of their hacks as a political weapon to influence an election. 

This potential Russia Trump connection is becoming a thing. George Will yesterday said Trumps Russian money is why he wont release his taxes. Obama noted yesterday how Trump gets good press in Russia and today Trump was being asked about his previous statements that seem pro Putin. If the DNC weren't going on now, this would be bigger news.  The question is, will the media forget and move on to the next thing next week?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 09:25:38 pm
Contrast this speech to all of those from Trump family members last week. 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MorningConsult Natl: Trump +4 (2-way & 3-way) on: July 26, 2016, 06:51:20 pm
Fixed the headline and OP with the correct 2 way and 3 way numbers.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Trump +2 on: July 26, 2016, 06:09:52 pm
Note that this is LV, previously Reuters/Ipsos would report out their RV number, but I guess after the conventions they switch to LV. Last week's reported poll (RV) was Clinton +4.

Also from the article (assuming from their LV model)...
Quote
Clinton held a three-point lead on Friday
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 04:12:28 pm
Reporter from Roll Call:

Quote
Patricia Murphy ‏@1PatriciaMurphy  16m16 minutes ago
The Clinton campaign has a plan to keep rowdy California delegation from going crazy during the roll call tonight-- story coming...

free pot brownies?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment) on: July 26, 2016, 02:39:10 pm

I am reposting something here not directly related to the database but about making new posts about new polls.

When making a new post about a new poll, please keep headlines to 'just the facts'. So they should contain the name of the pollster, state of national, horse race number(s) or margin

For the body of the post, it should ideally contain:
- Name of Media outlet and pollster
- Identify if national or state
- Date range of poll
- All available horse race numbers (2-way, 3-way, 4-way)
- All available samples (RV, LV and Adults)
- Link to source (ideally media article and to detailed poll if available)

Also nice to have
- change since last poll (especially with more frequent polls and trackers)
- methodology and MoE
- interesting crosstabs or details (this can also be in an additional comment to OP)

 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 02:31:40 pm
Here is the schedule at CSPAN (it may not be complete)

    4:00PM EDT
    Former Senator Tom Harkin (Iowa)
    Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (Kentucky)

    5:00PM EDT
    Roll Call of the States
    Governor Terry McAuliffe (Virginia)

    7:00PM EDT
    Representative Nancy Pelosi (California) and Democratic Women of House
    Former State Senator Jason Carter (Georgia)
    Video Message from President Jimmy Carter
    Senator Chuck Schumer (New York)
    Thaddeus Desmond, Child Advocate
    Dynah Haubert, Attorney
    Kate Burdick, Attorney
    Anton Moore, Unity in the Community
    Dustin Parsons, Elementary School Teacher
    Daniele Mellot
    Jelani Freeman, Attorney
    Donna Brazile
    Students from Eagle Academy
    Former Attorney General Eric Holder
    Chief of Police Cameron McLay (Pittsburgh)
    Tony Goldwyn, Actor
    Mothers of the Movement
    Cecile Richards, Planned Parenthood Action Fund
    America Fererra and Lena Dunham, Actors
    Mayor Steve Benjamin (Columbia, SC)
    Senator Barbara Boxer (California)
    Debra Messing, Actor
    Joe Sweeney, Former NYPD Detective
    Lauren Manning
    Representative Joe Crowley (New York)
    Erika Alexander, Actor
    Ryan Moore
    Former Governor Howard Dean (Vermont)
    Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota)
    Ima Matul, Sex Trafficking Survivor
    Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright

    10:00PM EDT
    Former President Bill Clinton
    Meryl Streep, Actor

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of 538's Current Polls-Only Map on: July 26, 2016, 02:28:49 pm
See my previous comments about NV vs PA as tipping point for Trump.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie gets booed by hundreds of protesters for several minutes on: July 26, 2016, 02:27:32 pm
Bernie got booed again this morning speaking to the CA delegation (which seems home to the largest faction of Bernie or Busters)

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/757943143417413632

he told them
Quote
it is easy to boo, but it is harder to look your kids in the face who would be living under a Donald Trump presidency
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Was A Goldwater Girl on: July 26, 2016, 02:21:59 pm
Imagine a world where everyone held to their political positions from when they were 16.   I suspect that every 4 years or so we would be tearing down statues of Karl Marx to be replaced with statues of Ayn Rand, to be replaced with monuments to the 10 Commandments to be replaced with Holograms of Kim Kardashian.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-InsideSources/NH Journal: Trump+9 on: July 26, 2016, 02:13:52 pm
BTW, this appears to be a robopollster and their own PDF page notes the following...
Quote
These results, collected via landlines from a random sample of  1,166 registered New Hampshire voters, have a margin of  error of  +/-5.1 percent. New Hampshire general election surveys conducted earlier in the 2016 cycle have found that voters contacted via landline are more likely to prefer Trump over Clinton than voters contacted through other means, and for the purposes of  comparison, a June 24-26 ARG poll found that registered voters contacted via landline preferred Trump to Clinton 47-42.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-InsideSources/NH Journal: Trump+9 on: July 26, 2016, 02:11:43 pm
Again I had to change the headline. Please keep the snark to the posts and keep the headlines just the facts.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/Survey Monkey Natl: Trump +2 (4-way) / Clinton +1 (2-way) on: July 26, 2016, 02:06:21 pm
I have edited the original post and headline. Again for this sub we want to keep the headlines to 'just the facts' and leave the commentary to the posts themselves.

So headlines should contain pollster, state of national, horserace number(s) or margin

Also original posts ideally contain
- Name of Media outlet and pollster
- Identify if national or state
- All available horse race numbers (2-way, 3-way, 4-way)
- All available samples (RV, LV and Adults)
- Link to source (ideally media article and to detailed poll if available)

Also nice to have
- change since last poll (especially with more frequent polls and trackers)
- methodology and MoE
- interesting crosstabs or details (this can also be in an additional comment to OP)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing. on: July 26, 2016, 12:43:27 pm
This topic has been moved to Polling.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241731.0
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Bernie supporters, which comes closest to how you feel? on: July 26, 2016, 12:37:47 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241717.0
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 07:18:53 pm
not sure how they are going to handle time management. Bernie was supposed to go on about an hour from now but he was moved to the closing spot.  Now they have Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie all in the final hour, plus both Warren and Sanders have speakers introducing them.  And there are there is only one more speaker immigration-issue speaker listed on the CSPAN schedule and then nothing until 10pm.

Are they going to move Michelle into the 9pm-10pm hour? If not, they are probably going to have a big gap before 10 and then go over past 11.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 06:09:02 pm
After Sanchez it looks like about an hour or so of all unions all the time...

 
Lee Saunders, AFSCME
Lily Eskelsen Garcia, National Education Association
Mary Kay Henry, SEIU
Richard Trumka, AFL-CIO
Sean McGarvey, Building and Construction Trades
Randi Weingarten, American Federation of Teachers
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