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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 07:15:26 pm
Obama's 39% with whites is actually quite low. It is worse than both Gore and Kerry. It is even worse than Dukakis. As I have noted here before, if Hillary just gets Kerry's numbers with whites and non-whites, then it goes from a modest GOP victory to essentially tied PV with winner coming down to just how many whites show up vs. non-whites. And bear in mind that Bush in 04 got record high numbers with Latinos and Asians (around 44%) by pushing comprehensive immigration reform and even got 11% of blacks (matching his Dad's numbers in 1988).

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Our President continues to be the best on: October 22, 2014, 11:59:27 am
Drudge Report: Obama cheats on Michelle, caught with girl in Chicago Voting Booth!

Drudgereally  actually did have “Man warns president not to touch his girlfriend"
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz writes a "2015" (cough 2016) platform on: October 22, 2014, 11:53:44 am
Seems to just be GOP greatest hits. Drilll Baby Drill, Tax Cuts, Border Wall, More Mideast War, and of course Kill Obamacare.

Interesting how he threw in the old 'stop appointing activist judges' thing as a nod to the Huckabee wing. He also has proposed new constitutional amendment barring judges from overturning SSM bans (good luck getting 38 states approving that). But it shows even Cruz giving up on banning SSM nationwide, which was actually still part of GOP 2012 platform.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona gay marriage ban struck down on: October 17, 2014, 12:27:42 pm
Sedwick said in his ruling that because the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals had already ruled against gay marriage bans in Nevada and Idaho, he did not need to give a lengthy reason

They are just phoning it in at this point. I look forward to the next judge's ruling

Quote
"The state ban is overturned because reasons"
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 07:31:45 pm
It could be the spark for a new space race, ironically back to the moon. The Russians, Chinese and Indian space agencies have all talked mining Helium-3 on the moon.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 15, 2014, 05:04:29 pm
Fusion could also lead to commercializing the moon due to Helium 3.  This could also become an international fight over land mineral rights on the moon. Plus environmentalists won't like strip mining moon
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush versus Mitt Romney on: October 15, 2014, 03:43:30 pm
The scenario where Romney runs is if by Aug/Sept 2015 there is no viable establishment candidate and he feels it is his duty to run to save the party.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment GOP candidate will be 2016's Rudy Giuliani/Jon Hunstman? on: October 15, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
Jeb has not been in politics for a long time really and isn't ready for today's GOP. His recent flop in NC only shows how he is out of step with the party.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC not issuing SSM licsenses on: October 10, 2014, 02:49:11 pm


I have been thinking about that lately. Maybe not one of the governors, but some county clerks or other local officials in the deep south refusing to comply and forcing federal marshals to intervene.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SSM bans struck down in Nevada, Idaho on: October 09, 2014, 10:59:11 am
The 5th circuit seems to be in no hurry to take up the matter. Maybe they were hoping SCOTUS would have picked up one of the other appeals and so they wouldn't have to deal with it. They may be conservative but no one likes being overturned and they probably dont want to be the only appeals court to rule in favor of a SSM ban, only to be quickly overturned anyway. Every appeals court judge is hoping to be on the SCOTUS one day and that kind of vote will not help in the Senate, especially 5 or 10 years from now.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wealthy Americans giving less to charity, non-wealthy giving more on: October 07, 2014, 07:36:39 pm
This is proof that we must give the job creators more tax relief
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb takes federalist position on gay marriage on: October 06, 2014, 03:24:50 pm
Webb certainly sounded like a candidate in MTP on Sunday, especially the way he pivoted questions about foreign policy to talk about domestic issues and the middle class.

If he runs in the Dem primary he will fully evolve to the accepted SSM position within the Dem party (and with 60% of the country). He isn't an idiot.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul on drugs.....and gay marriage on: October 05, 2014, 09:13:15 pm
so he is ok with some states making bestiality legal too?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Economy as issue in 2016 - will it be better, worse or same? on: October 03, 2014, 09:33:28 pm
So today the unemployment rate hit 5.9%


Obviously this isn't the only indicator, but the economy continues to recover (albeit slowly). So do folks expect things to continue to get better between now and Nov 2016?.

Will the economy be the top issue or even the number two issue in 2016?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Graham exploring 2016 Presidential bid. on: October 03, 2014, 01:38:10 pm
I do declare, this news is giving me a case of the vapors ...~faints~
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W Bush: Jeb wants to be President on: October 02, 2014, 10:50:52 pm
Of course he wants to be president. The question is does he want to run for president.

With today's GOP, it is hard to see him relishing the primary fight. Maybe if he were an anointed frontrunner with limited opposition like his brother had in 2000, but he would be in for a total slog.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Gov. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) on: October 01, 2014, 12:18:43 pm
I think I was the first here to talk up Pence, he is going to be a strong candidate both in the primaries and general. If you assume the GOP want a governor, then just look at the choices
http://www.rga.org/homepage/governors/
By process of elimination, Pence ends up their best chance.

Still think absent any major bad shifts in the economy or huge revelations/gaffes, that Hillary would beat him, but he would put up a good fight. I could see a Pence/Rubio ticket picking up the Romney states +OH, FL and IA (netting 259). Maybe throw in CO, and then Hillary squeaks by at 270 v 268. 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Scott Walker Unite the GOP? (GQ) on: October 01, 2014, 12:11:03 pm
Hillary Clinton will unite the GOP, it doesn't matter who they nominate. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: September 27, 2014, 04:56:21 pm
With the few interactions Bush has had with politics in the last couple of years it is hard for him to come away thinking he will be able to campaign "joyfully" which was his precondition. He is seeing that today's GOP primary electorate are not very 'joyful' people
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: September 27, 2014, 04:53:09 pm
Betfair prices are set by the bookmakers. This isnt the same as intrade (which closed down). So there are no 'shares' for people to buy/sell/hold. In theory this means the odds should be more realistic and not be able to be influenced by traders in a low volume market, but this far out the bookmakers are really just guessing. Once everyone announces and there are lots of polls the odds will likely be more realistic and change more often. I doubt there is much betting going on now anyway.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which potential GOP candidate is the biggest hawk? on: September 21, 2014, 12:02:23 am
it will be interesting to see if there is a race to the bottom for who can be more hawkish, like there was last time with the competing tax plans. Also with so many governors in the mix it gives them an opportunity to redefine themselves because they don't have records on national security. I think Perry will do a lot of pandering in this area.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz on ISIS, and the split among GOP hawks on: September 20, 2014, 04:50:53 pm
The GOP Debates are going to be fascinating. There will be little to no agreement among these guys on Iraq/Syria/ISIS. And of course ISIS is likely to troll the US elections with videos, beheadings, etc.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary be better off if Republicans take the Senate? on: September 19, 2014, 10:43:23 am
probably yes as she can run against the (now fully republican) congress, which will have lower approval than Obama, likely much lower
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson: ISIL is like Political Correctness on: September 15, 2014, 11:25:59 am
So according to Ben Carson
Homesexuality is like Bestiality
Obamacare is like Slavery
Political Correctness is like Islamic State

One thing is clear. This man is really bad at analogies.

Also when he is exposed to a presidential campaign and has to work outside the Tea Party/Fox News bubble. He is going to be in for a big surprise. Hell, even Bill O'Reilly called him out for defending Ray Rice last week. Wait til he has to deal with the press in IA.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Air Force to atheist Sgt.: "Recite 'So help me god' or get out" on: September 11, 2014, 12:09:25 am
would it count if he said "so help me Flying Spaghetti Monster"
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