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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the current state of the election? on: May 28, 2016, 05:50:57 pm
as in what if the election were held today? Then probably tossup. The Dems haven't yet united and Dem GOTV machine needs months to ramp up and motivate their base that are yet to be really fully engaged.  But given time, then yes probably Lean Clinton due to the usual advantages given to the Dems (Obama approval, generally good economy, organizational advantage, money advantage, demographic trend, EC Dem advantage).

Of course during that time there will be plenty of opportunities for Clinton and the Dems to blow it.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Democrats, the party of urbanites. on: May 27, 2016, 07:45:59 pm
This topic has been moved to 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237608.0
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: "There is No Drought" in California on: May 27, 2016, 07:14:08 pm
I suspect that this is another effect of the company he has been keeping, probably Kevin McCarthy and other CA GOP reps. The whole 'drought is the fault of environmentalists' meme has been going on in GOP circles in CA and in Washington. I think when Trump talks about 'opening up the water' he is talking about legislation introduced by the CA GOP delegation to deregulate water in CA.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 27, 2016, 03:36:09 pm
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/27/politics/trump-says-he-will-not-debate-sanders/index.html?sr=twCNN052716trump-says-he-will-not-debate-sanders0830PMStoryLink&linkId=24952968

Quote
"Based on the fact that the Democratic nominating process is totally rigged and Crooked Hillary Clinton and (Debbie) Wasserman-Schultz will not allow Bernie Sanders to win, and now that I am the presumptive Republican nominee, it seems inappropriate that I would debate the second-place finisher," Trump said in a statement.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Hillary need to do in order to appeal to more white males? on: May 27, 2016, 03:30:34 pm
Well she will never win all white males but she can target subgroups within white males such as gays, non-christians (jews, muslims, buddists, athiests/agnostics), liberals, urbanites, youngs, unmarried. Basically micro-target enough subgroups so that her losses with white men as a whole isn't so bad. Each group will get different messages. 

Of course her biggest challenge with white men is getting liberal independent millennials (aka Bernie Bros) out to vote for her. This group will never like her but their fear/hatred of Trump could be enough. Also, deploying surrogates will help, like Sanders and Warren and possibly others, maybe some pop culture personalities as well.

She also has an opportunity with the college educated moderate suburban Republican-leaning white men (aka NeverTrump types). Again anti-Trump messaging will be key here to at least keep them from voting Trump.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: AP: Trump clinches nomination on: May 26, 2016, 07:46:07 pm
According to the AP delegate tracker Clinton is now 74 short.
https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

This brings up the chance that maybe Clinton could go over the top by June 6th if more supers get added. I don't think it will happen but at the very least she will need maybe around 30 delegates by the morning of June 7th. 

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: May 26, 2016, 05:46:53 pm
everyone stop with the personal attacks please. Otherwise thread will be locked.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Leftists only: Who do you hate more? on: May 26, 2016, 02:28:46 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237527.0
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: If every state had to pick one of the following primary guidelines... on: May 25, 2016, 08:31:06 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Process.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237459.0
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: If Clinton actually loses to Trump... on: May 25, 2016, 08:25:49 pm
This topic has been moved to Past Election What-ifs (US).

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237476.0
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: May 25, 2016, 08:24:36 pm
Martinez statement:
Quote
Apparently, Donald Trump doesnít realize Governor Martinez wasnít elected in 2000, that she has fought for welfare reform, and has strongly opposed the Presidentís Syrian refugee plan. But the pot shots werenít about policy, they were about politics. And the Governor will not be bullied into supporting a candidate until she is convinced that candidate will fight for New Mexicans. Governor Martinez doesnít care about what Donald Trump says about her ó she cares about what he says he will do to help New Mexicans. She didnít hear anything about that today
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MOVED: Hillary set to sweep Canada's 52 Electoral Votes - Abacus Data on: May 25, 2016, 05:43:21 pm
This topic has been moved to 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237455.0
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Who do you side with in the Trump/Warren spat? on: May 25, 2016, 05:38:30 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237460.0
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: May 24, 2016, 10:54:38 pm
There were a bunch of stories earlier today about Martinez saying she was "really busy" and therefore could not attend Trump's rally.  Apparently that is all it takes to trigger him.   He is going to experience a lot of govs and senators who are "busy" when he comes to town.  Is he going to go after all of them?  Was this a kind of warning to others who aren't endorsing?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: May 2016 Support vs Opposition Poll on: May 24, 2016, 07:24:41 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237397.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Suicide of Vince Foster 'very fishy' on: May 24, 2016, 07:15:26 pm
Tapper did the same with the Cruz dad JFK bs.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Jerry Brown endorse? on: May 24, 2016, 07:11:58 pm
1970s Jerry Brown would be all over Bernie, but 21st century Jerry Brown is Mr Pragmatic. He may not like the  Clintons  personally but today he is more alligned with Hillary. I suspect he won't endorse anyone until after Clinton secures nomination.  Which is at least a little win for Bernie.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Ten largest US cities: Freedom Cities or Horrible Cities? on: May 23, 2016, 12:50:09 pm
This topic has been moved to Off-topic Board.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237151.0
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: What are your reasons for voting for Hillary? on: May 23, 2016, 01:56:43 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237280.0
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump in 2006: "I 'sort of hope' real estate market tanks" on: May 22, 2016, 08:03:26 pm
Trump is a walking attack ad. Hillary hasn't even started on him.

While this is true, it does bring up a dilemma for Clinton that was discussed on CNN's Inside Politics this morning. They discussed how there is so much stuff on Trump that it is hard to pick a theme and a frame for the attacks.   Is he a racist? Is he a sexist? Is he a crony billionaire? Is he reckless?   The Clinton campaign and the Super PAC can't attack him on everything and with so much their message can lose focus.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Douglas Schoen national poll: Clinton 44% Trump 42% on: May 22, 2016, 07:50:31 pm
The real focus of this poll was testing the appetite for an independent candidate.  Much of the survey focuses on a potential indie candidate, including :
Quote
22. If the general election for President of the United States were held today, would you be voting for
Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, or a truly independent candidate?

Donald Trump 33%
Hillary Clinton 33%
Independent 20%
Not sure 14%
 

Quote
24. How important do you think it is to elect Independents to break the partisan gridlock in Washington?

Very important 21%
Somewhat important 26%
Not very important 18%
Not at all important 9%
Not sure 26%

There are a bunch of questions testing various independent candidate messages, such as...
Quote
27. Both the Democrats and Republicans have failed to solve Americaís problems. We need to elect someone who can do things differently and produce real change.  There are clear steps we can take to improve the standard of living of the average American and deliver on the American Dream, and the only reason we havenít taken them is because there is no political courage on either side. 

Strongly agree 43%
Somewhat agree 34%
Somewhat disagree 8%
Strongly disagree 7%
Not sure 8%
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary floats new campaign slogan, "Stronger Together," on Meet the Press on: May 22, 2016, 05:09:26 pm
Obviously they have been thinking about this message for a while. Back in April they released an anti-Trump TV commercial titled "Stronger Together" pointing out all the divisive things Trump said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA5ZhyoaJec

...although the commercial itself didn't actually use the phrase 'stronger together' as a tagline. 

It seems like a good slogan or at least phrase to use, but it does seem to be a defensive thing. It is a reaction to Trump more than something about her.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ national poll: Clinton 46% Trump 43% on: May 22, 2016, 05:04:17 pm
If you watched MTP they did a drill down looking at the people who had a negative view of both Clinton and Trump and the conclusion was a good chunk of them were Sanders people.  So that seems to be dragging her general numbers down. The question is, will they get on the unity train or stay home, or even worse, vote Trump. 
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Facts about "Reagan Democrats" on: May 22, 2016, 04:48:31 pm
It wasn't until 1984 that they became "Reagan Democrats."  

Actually Regan got a smaller percentage of Dems in 1984 (down to 26%), but more importantly, the number describing themselves as Dems dropped from 43% to 38% and those describing themselves as Republicans rose from 28% to 35%.  Again reinforcing how 'Reagan Democrats' were actually becoming Republicans, which was actually a trend (and as others have noted, much of that was due to the obvious movement of Dems to the GOP in the South).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Facts about "Reagan Democrats" on: May 22, 2016, 04:10:11 pm
the problem is that things have changed in the last couple of generations. Yes Reagan got 27% of Democrats in 1980, but Ford got 20% of Dems in 1976. Back then there simply were a lot more Dems and a lot of them started voting Republican after the 60s. I seriously doubt Trump is going to do much better with actual self-described Dems as McCain (10%) or Romney (7%).

Perhaps the better new (but convoluted) term would be "Trump Dem-leaning Independents". That would be indies who voted for Obama in 2008 (when he got 52%), but probably didnt vote at all in 2012 (when he got 45%), and are now considering Trump.
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