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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chelsea Clinton Preggers! on: April 18, 2014, 05:59:05 pm
It was inevitable....enter the babytruthers claiming the birth timing was "staged" to be timed for Hillary's campaign kickoff

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chelsea-clinton-baby-campaign-ploy

I could just see it. Hillary will emerge from the hospital holding the baby aloft ala The Lion King and declare her candidacy on behalf of the children of the future
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's cabinet on: April 18, 2014, 01:19:35 am
Not sure about names right now, but I suspect it would be the most diverse cabinet ever, certainly no majority of white men.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: King: Paul Presidency would be a disaster on: April 17, 2014, 01:13:05 am
I hope King runs, his trolling of Cruz and Paul in the debates will be entertaining.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 17, 2014, 01:10:49 am
Assuming trends continue along expectations (ala CBO predictions), then I don't see how Huckabee picks up any Obama 2012 states. Hillary would probably pick up 1 or 2 more states (NC + maybe AZ, MO or GA)
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does a primary without Christie or Bush proceed? on: April 17, 2014, 01:04:06 am
It's possible there will be no consensus establishment candidate with that wing splitting the same way the conservatives split. It is also quite possible that some governors not being talked about much get pushed into the race, possibly Pence and/or Kasich.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton and Boeing: beneficial relationship on: April 14, 2014, 11:27:05 pm
It's pretty common for the state dept. to help Boeing as much as it can in the face of Airbus and its EU subsidies. At the time of her tenure the US had a big case against Airbus at the WTO (which the US won).

A quick Google search found report of Condoleezza Rice (as well as GW Bush and Sec of Transportation) doing the same thing, this time in India
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/thscrip/print.pl?file=20050603003703400.htm&date=fl2211/&prd=fline&
Quote
THE Indian government's decision to purchase 50 Boeing aircraft to replenish Air-India's fleet has not gone down well in many European capitals....
...
According to one report, United States President George W. Bush had a telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh requesting India to consider the offer from Boeing sympathetically.
...
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is said to have also lobbied strongly for Boeing as she did for Lockheed Martin, the manufacturers of F-16s. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are pillars of the U.S. military-industrial complex. U.S. Secretary for Transportation Norman Mineta was in New Delhi in early April to lobby for Boeing.

I'm sure every SecState will at some point pimp Boeing, it is one of the few major US exporters and it faces fierce competition from mostly subsidized companies, including recently formed large airplane makers in Japan and China.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Woman throws a shoe at Hillary Clinton. on: April 14, 2014, 11:01:42 pm
apparently there is a 'shoe truther' movement saying Hillary staged the whole thing. Rush is onboard too
http://www.mediaite.com/online/rush-limbaugh-agrees-with-shoe-truthers-hillary-incident-was-staged/

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ann Coulter supports Romney in 2016, calls Perry and Cruz RINOs on: April 10, 2014, 07:19:45 am
Ironically if he had to do it all over again I doubt Romney would stick to the "self-deportation" position Anne loves so much.

But since he isn't going to run, which 2016er will most appeal to the Coulter-like single-issue anti-immigration voters?  I had assumed Cruz was pure on this but apparently not, so if not him then who?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush Outlines His Campaign Strategy on: April 07, 2014, 05:36:27 am
Bush may have some thoughts on a general election strategy but what about the primary. The last competitive GOP primary he was in was 1994 FL Gov race. Things have changed a bit in the GOP since then. I'm not sure he is ready for the level of pandering needed to get through it.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Fed Grand Jury Convened In Bridgegate on: April 04, 2014, 06:17:45 pm
ABC reports...
Quote
The U.S. Attorney in New Jersey has convened a grand jury to investigate the involvement of Governor Chris Christie’s office in the George Washington Bridge scandal, ABC News has learned.

Twenty-three jurors convened in a federal courthouse in Newark today to hear testimony from a key staff member, Christie press secretary Mike Drewniak, whose lawyer, Anthony Iacullo, said Drewniak was not a target of the investigation.

"We're here to answer questions and that's what Michael did today," Iacullo said.

The convening of the grand jury is evidence that the U.S. Attorney’s investigation has progressed beyond an inquiry and moved to the criminal phase.

The grand jury, which will meet for up to the next 18 months, has the power to indict, subpoena and interview witnesses without their attorney's present.
...
The final decision on whether or not to indict or file charges against Governor Christie or anyone in his office comes from the decision of the grand jury.

This means that Bridgegate isnt going away and this process will extend into the time when Christie is supposed to start his campaign It is hard to imagine big money people backing someone who may end up indicted or at least tarnished by his own former staffers trying to cut deals and point fingers once they are indicted or about to be indicted.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Let's talk about 2020 on: April 04, 2014, 03:31:32 pm
With the advantage of incumbency and the Dem-advantaged demographic trend, the default position would have to be Hillary reelection (likely by bigger margin). But she could lose if there were some major scandal or if the economy went back into recession or if there were some failed international initiative (ala how the Iraq War was seen in 2008).

If she doesn't run for medical reasons, then the party would very likely run her VP, and that person would have almost all the same advantages (but again the same risks apply).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - April 2014 on: April 03, 2014, 11:39:07 pm
Voted for Pence. I still think that the eventual nominee will be a governor who isn't one of the usual suspects being talked about now.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal to announce his own replacement for Obamacare on: April 02, 2014, 03:58:12 pm
The 'full repeal' position is no longer reasonable, even FOX grilled Ted Cruz this week asking him what his replacement plan was. Perhaps Jindal is hoping that some in the GOP start talking up his plan in the runup to the 2014 midterms.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bill would forbid divorcing parents in Massachusetts from having sex in home on: March 24, 2014, 01:59:32 am
I suspect this has less to do with Massachusetts and more to do with Senator Richard J. Ross.

"I'll show you Marsha! I'll make it illegal for you to bang your yoga teacher in the bed I bought!"
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Plane with 239 people on board crashes into Gulf of Thailand (or somewhere else) on: March 18, 2014, 12:11:39 am
One of the reasons why the accident theory (fire followed by course change and then crew incapacitation) seems more plausible to me is that the final ditching corresponds to about the time the plane would run out of fuel. In the suicide scenario (where we assume the pilot not only wants to die and kill but also make it an unsolvable mystery) why would he wait until the bitter end like that? The longer he stayed aloft the more chance of being spotted by another plane or ship so the sooner he plunged it into the Indian Ocean (once out of range of Malaysia/Indonesia radar) the better.

If it turns out to be suicide I wouldn't be surprised. I just think that the media (and certainly the Malaysians) are dismissing any accident scenario too easily.

I wish that the US NTSB were put in charge and given all the data and access (along with the FBI for the criminal angle). The Malaysians have no experience doing something like this and we have not seen a great level of competence and consistency. I think that is why we are seeing so many "US officials says" off-record reports from the NYT, WSJ. And I am not being jingoistic, it could be handed over to the  UK's AAIB or France's BEA too. Just some credible outfit with the experience to handle this.

Unfortunately it is likely this will never be solved. It is unlikely they will ever find the crash site and even if they did they are unlikely to ever find the flight recorders. The French spent millions over two years to recover the ones after Air France 447, the Malaysians are unlikely to spend those kind resources. Plus it is quite likely that the boxes wont have any data on them.  That would leave analyzing wreckage which is 2+ miles deep.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Plane with 239 people on board crashes into Gulf of Thailand (or somewhere else) on: March 17, 2014, 11:55:31 pm
Can we talk more about this idea to have a fourth of the passengers be federal officers? I, for one, think it's wonderful.

But we have to be realistic. For international flights between Malaysia and China, surely 1/8 of the passengers being US Federal officers would be sufficient.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Plane with 239 people on board crashes into Gulf of Thailand (or somewhere else) on: March 17, 2014, 11:41:54 pm
Agreed- does not explain the "All right, Good Night" call after ACARS switched off.

It actually does because the ACARS was not "switched off" at the time of the last contact. The ACARS communicates every 30 minutes. The "goodnight" was in between regular contacts. Air Malaysia clarified this yesterday. There is actually no evidence it was "switched off", only that it failed to make its next report.

18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What would it take for a Rick Perry comeback? on: March 17, 2014, 11:33:17 pm
Rick Perry clearly is going to run again. As I have said before he has no reason not to, plus he is good on paper. Evangelical governor from low regulation, low tax, low unemployment state that shunned Obamacare. He was the instant front-runner in 2012 because of this. Plus GOP like to nominate people who have run before. He can blame 2012 stumbles on getting in late and unprepared. And of course he has his new hipster glasses.

He seems to be edging up in some polls, like 3rd place in latest CNN national (2nd place in the South). He had a good speech at CPAC. He was funny on Jimmy Kimmel (daring to appear in the People's Republic of Austin).

I think that if he can pull off two good debate performances, he can move back into the "taken seriously" category.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Plane with 239 people on board crashes into Gulf of Thailand (or somewhere else) on: March 17, 2014, 11:23:54 pm
This seems like a pretty simple, compelling argument: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

I have always assumed something like that because it is the simplest solution and the one with the most precedent. However, it does take a lot of unlikely coincidences to have the pilots aware long enough to turn the plane around but not long enough to get off any kind of emergency mayday call. Plus the ACARS system itself would automatically notify the ground at the first warning light so that means that the fire would have to have destroyed the ACARS ability to communicate or the pilots disabled the ACARS. That being said, all air accidents are usually a series of unlikely events, often compounded by human errors. It seems to me that the accident scenario is one that shouldn't be dismissed entirely.

The only other solution that puts all the (apparent) facts together and isn't completely ridiculous is suicide, but the captain seems to be such a huge aviation nut. I guess I just find it hard to imagine that he would become a mass murderer and kill all his passengers like that. The only thing I can think of, and this assumes he was really really political, is that having a plane vanish would be an embarrassment to the government. Air Malaysia is a state airline.

But for me the accident scenario is easier to believe but maybe because it is less horrific to imagine.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson getting increasingly wacky: compares US political correctness to Nazis on: March 17, 2014, 05:10:16 pm
It seems like he's just Herman Cain cleverly disguised in some scrubs. Well done.

He is in no way like Herman Cain except that he is black. Cain was funny and charming and a bit loopy and always entertaining.   Carson is very serious and condescending (he is a doctor after all) and even a bit hostile.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Wal-Mart is basically a Soviet grocery store from the 1970s on: March 16, 2014, 02:05:55 pm
In Walmart store, food eats you!
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Enjoy a drunk women yelling about Obama for 30 minutes on: March 16, 2014, 03:58:30 am
When does her new show on FOX start?
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Plane with 239 people on board crashes into Gulf of Thailand (or somewhere else) on: March 16, 2014, 02:25:03 am
Can't the pilot just cut the oxygen in the plane (but the cockpit)?
He can depresurize the plane but only the whole plane. That would automatically deploy the little oxygen masks in the passenger cabin, however each of those only has about 20 minutes of air. The pilots have their own separate air mask supply.

As for the door, Air Malaysia does have hardened doors so you cant get through.

If you were bent on doing this kind of horrible thing, here is how you would do it.
Step 1. Kill the other pilot - there is a fire axe in the cockpit
Step 2. Put on your air mask
Step 3. Depressurize the plane to kill the passengers (take it up to max altitude to speed things up)

But the whole suicide thing doesn't really account for why the pilot would fly around for 7 hours. Why not go from Step 1 above to "dive plane into the ocean". The only plausible thing I could think of is if one of the pilots wanted to kill himself but didn't want anyone to know he killed himself, maybe due to shame to his family or possibly insurance money.

Bottom line is that if you take all the apparent facts for this thing, they don't match any other air incident. This is a whole new kind of thing. Either that, or some of the 'confirmed' info isn't actually correct.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Ron Paul be more asset or liability for Rand? on: March 13, 2014, 05:11:34 pm
Recently Rand Paul has been attacking Bill Clinton as a way to get at Hillary, trying to turn her husband into a liability. But will Rand's father be a liability for him? Will he have to defend everything in Ron Paul's past (like those alleged racist letters). More to the point, will he have to comment on and defend every new thing Ron Paul says.

Case it point, today Ron Paul said Vladamir Putin had "some law on his side" regarding Crimea, and that the Crimean referendum should be considered legitimate. Paul also said the Crimean invasion is being used as an “excuse” to erect interceptor missiles in “Russia’s backyard.” “There should be a right of secession,” Paul concluded. He said America has a tradition of secession and Crimea should have it as well.

That kind of talk would go over like a lead balloon in a GOP primary.  I think if the Rand Paul campaign uses his dad as a surrogate (the way Hillary will use Bill), the risk is he is going to say things that are going to going to get Rand into trouble, or at least serve as distractions while Rand has to clarify how his position is different.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016? on: March 13, 2014, 04:57:31 pm
If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.
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