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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC: Romney far ahead, but Bush leads with Mitt out on: Today at 05:31:27 pm
It's a little strange but the numbers on the WaPo site are slightly different. Some have one or more less, changing the order

Mitt Romney 20
Jeb Bush 10
Rand Paul 9
Paul Ryan 8
Ted Cruz 7
Ben Carson 6
Chris Christie 6
Mike Huckabee 6
Scott Walker 5
Rick Perry 4
Marco Rubio 4
Bobby Jindal 3
John Kasich 2
Rick Santorum 2
Other *
None of these 2
No opinion 6

(w/o Romney)
Jeb Bush 15
Rand Paul 11
Paul Ryan 11
Chris Christie 8
Ted Cruz 8
Ben Carson 7
Mike Huckabee 6
Marco Rubio 6
Scott Walker 6
Rick Perry 5
Bobby Jindal 3
Rick Santorum 3
John Kasich 2
Other *
None of these 2
No opinion 7

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/12/16/National-Politics/Polling/release_377.xml?uuid=wHyc4oVVEeSrz1o9ezsguA

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will be a higher number? on: December 17, 2014, 09:40:25 pm
The peak number may not be at the first. The first debate in 2012 had five candidates but there were seven debates with eight candidates and one debate with nine. That being said, it is hard to get to 13. I could imagine 13 declared candidates but it is likely that the debate rules (especially if the GOP is in charge) will keep some off the stage (like they did with McCotter and Johnson in 2012)
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush on: December 16, 2014, 10:58:14 pm
A lot of that depends on what kind of Jeb Bush exits the primaries. Will he still be the moderate sounding guy he is now, with middle of the road positions (like supporting a path to citizenship for undocemnted immigrants)? That guy has a good chance of winning.  But if the primaries do to him what they did to Romney and McCain, then the map will look like 2012 with Rs carrying FL (and maybe the Ds pick up NC)
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 06:21:37 pm
Bear in mind that turnout was down across the board in 2012. In 2008 Obama got 69.5M votes and in 2012 he got 65.9M votes. So I would say that turnout would be up with most of the Democratic coalition (Youngs, Unmarried Women, LGBT, Latinos/Asians) with perhaps AAs remaining flat
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb is basically in on: December 16, 2014, 02:45:05 pm
I suspect Jeb wanted to wait but realized the buzz about him was that he was waffling and after Christie's big RGA wins and the constant talk about Romney got him to move now to send a signal to elites and donors.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you currently rate the odds that Jeb Bush runs? on: December 15, 2014, 07:54:54 pm
Originally I said 40% but now I say 80%. Today on Bloomberg Dan Senor (who knows Bush) says that Bush is 'my sense is that he has made the decision to run and he is testing the waters,' notably with the donor class. He said Bush could have a 'first mover advantage' with donors and that is what the email list release was about to hold off people from committing to Christie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2014-12-15/dan-senor-says-jeb-bush-emails-like-everybody
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush has a Mitt Romney Problem on: December 15, 2014, 01:14:50 am
Christie has a Mitt Romney problem that got Mitt Romney to pull him from his VP list, including this gem where the attack ads write themselves....
Quote
The vetters were stunned by the garish controversies lurking in the shadows of his record....There was the fact that Christie worked as a lobbyist on behalf of the Securities Industry Association at a time when Bernie Madoff was a senior SIA official—and sought an exemption from New Jersey’s Consumer Fraud Act
http://swampland.time.com/2013/11/02/the-hunt-for-pufferfish/
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of the vote will Santorum get in the Iowa Caucuses? on: December 15, 2014, 01:07:22 am
I agree that he may drop out before IA. His performance in IA in 2012 was a fluke of being the last conservative standing, but given a choice they originally preferred Perry, Gingrinch, Cain. In 2016 they will have plenty of choices. And if Huckabee gets in, Santorum shouldn't even bother putting on the sweater vest.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: David Koch: "I'm a social liberal" on: December 15, 2014, 01:04:12 am
THis is true of a lot of the big money people in the GOP. For example, Sheldon Adelson is pro-choice and runs a gambling empire.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/12/05/sheldon-adelson-im-basically-a-social-liberal/

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence might be the real 2016 wildcard. on: December 15, 2014, 12:56:31 am
I think I was one of the earliest voices saying Pence was going to be a big player in 2016 and I still believe that. I think he will do better than Walker because I think he will be a better campaigner and do better in IA. The GOP race is wide open, in most polls the number one pick is 'undecided.'
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania? on: December 15, 2014, 12:51:24 am
This is a key question for the GOP. In 2012 their core strategy was to win FL/OH/VA + 1 state. They spent more in VA per EV than any other state. The PA spend was much less and last minute. If there is a genuine trend, then they should switch their VA spend to PA. Then again maybe Obama (with his comments about people from PA clutching to their bibles and guns) was a bad fit and it will move back to be more akin to MN for Hillary in 2016 and once again be fools gold for the GOP? If they are smart they are already doing the early planning and testing required to turn PA into a real tipping point state, they can't half-ass it if they want to win, and if VA is really trending away they have no other choice really.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Romney runs, would he win the Republican nomination? on: December 12, 2014, 09:13:57 pm
Well if Romney jumped in and competed with one or two strong mainstream candidates then no, but I still feel he is only going to get in to the race if he knows he can own the mainstream/moderate wing (both money and voters). And so I would say, "yes". But I still think that eventually a candidate will emerge that is strong enough to dominate that wing, making Romney run moot.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Scalia loves him some torture on: December 12, 2014, 08:49:28 pm
um, wtf? Has he not read the Constitution?  Like this part...
Quote
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted

Well, I guess, he takes it that torture is not a punishment, but part of investigative process. I do wonder, if one should investigate, how he came to that view.

Well if this isn't an 8th issue, then you have the 5th...
Quote
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself

And one would expect suspects to have more rights than convicts. How can he reconcile "the right to remain silent" and using torture to compel someone to talk. Then again, Scalia is on the record for being against Miranda rights (in Dickerson v US).

14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Scalia loves him some torture on: December 12, 2014, 06:41:25 pm
um, wtf? Has he not read the Constitution?  Like this part...
Quote
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / If the GOP had 'smoked-filled room' who would they pick? on: December 12, 2014, 06:16:29 pm
The days of the proverbial 'smoke-filled room' of party bosses picking the nominee are over, but if today's version of the GOP powerful elite could hand-pick the nominee, who would it be?  Who would they see as having the best chance in a general and would be best for the party and (perhaps more importantly) it's key backers?

NOTE: I didn't include some like Carson, Huckabee, Cruz, etc on purpose for obvious reasons.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Cromnibus" Spending Bill - Averting a Shutdown on: December 11, 2014, 07:37:23 pm
The Obama admin figures this is better than any deal they can get with the next Congress, even if there are a few thing in it they don't like, including the stuff Warren is pissed about. And they don't want a shut down as that is just bad for the Country and hurts all parties politically. if the Dems saw that a shut down would be a big political winner, then Obama, Reed and Pelosi could easily make it happen.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Cromnibus" Spending Bill - Averting a Shutdown on: December 11, 2014, 07:09:18 pm
Assuming Pelosi releases her caucus to vote as they wish, then the Bill clearly doesn't need the liberal Dems to put it over the top. It just needs a handful, which Obama/The White House can surely whip up.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans Support Gun Rights Over Gun Control -Pew Poll Shows on: December 11, 2014, 06:27:45 pm
This is another area where question wording and specificity matters, especially with specific proposals.

For example:  Quinnipiac June 24-30, 2014
"Do you support or oppose stricter gun control laws in the United States?"
Support: 50
Oppose: 47
"Do you support or oppose requiring background checks for all gun buyers?"
Support: 92
Oppose: 7

Polls done in 2013 also consistently showed majorities supporting bans on assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition clips.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate Room Mates on: December 11, 2014, 06:17:24 pm
if you think that is funny, you should watch this TV show

http://www.amazon.com/Pilot-HD/dp/B00CDBTQCW
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will GOP 2016ers endorse restarting CIA 'enahnced interrogation' program? on: December 11, 2014, 06:11:01 pm
Watching FOX and GOP talkers these days, there seems to be a lot of defense of the CIA enhanced interrogation program, including saying it worked. The issue is going to come up during the campaign. How will the various GOPers respond to 'would you reinstate the CIA enhanced interrogation program?' 
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So, what happened to Rubio? on: December 08, 2014, 04:22:54 pm
^ Wasn't Time saying the same thing about Christie?

Yes they did. In 2013 Time gave Christie two covers (January and November)



Again the media elites saw him as bipartisan blue state hero who will win over the party and moderate it. But then came Bridgegate.






22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So, what happened to Rubio? on: December 08, 2014, 04:03:19 pm
Was he ever high in the polls?

It was more about the media elites and some in the mainstream GOP who saw him as the solution to the loss in 2012. Which resulted in this cover in early 2013.



In a sense, Rubio was the party's rebound fling after getting dumped in 2012. It was a fun flirtation with diversity but in the end they will go back to their true love (some white guy)
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican has the best leadership qualities? on: December 08, 2014, 12:33:04 am
Christie inspired a number of people to participate in a criminal conspiracy, so that is pretty impressive.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey legislature: no evidence that Christie was involved in bridge scheme on: December 05, 2014, 11:53:08 pm
I think it has been fairly obvious for a while that he didn't know about the scheme before it happened. The issue is that he had a political operation running amok and abusing the power of his office. It is likely some in that operation will end up getting indicted, which means they will likely be on trial during the campaign. And while he didn't know about it before, it is definitely not clear when he found out about it. Remember there was never any evidence that Nixon knew about Watergate before the break in, hence the phrase "it's not the crime, it's the coverup."

Bottom line, Christie's bipartisan 'above politics' persona has been completely evaporated, and that 'electability' thing was the main counter he had to his lack of being a 'real' conservative.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rand Paul blames Garner's death on cigarette taxes on: December 04, 2014, 05:52:52 am
while Paul may have a bit of a point, it is these kind of tone-deaf comments that are going to really bite him on the ass when he runs for president
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