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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Will Trump be a better President than Obama? on: December 02, 2016, 07:26:23 pm
This topic has been moved to U.S. General Discussion.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253841.0
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Exit polls indicate Hillary likely won on: November 18, 2016, 01:06:08 pm
Not sure where those exit numbers are coming from. If you go to CNN for the latest exits and extrapolate from the Male/Female vote you get the following.

FL   
Clinton   46.7%
Trump   48.8%
   
PA   
Clinton   48.0%
Trump   49.1%
   
NC   
Clinton   45.6%
Trump   50.1%
   
WI   
Clinton   46.6%
Trump   48.4%

In all cases the exit winner is the winner and if anything, the final exits overstate Trump's margin by almost 0.7-0.9% in FL, NC and WI.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Trump's cabinet: All white males? on: November 17, 2016, 03:39:10 pm
This topic has been moved to U.S. General Discussion.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252832.0
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016 on: November 16, 2016, 09:18:28 pm
what's the point of a predictive model if one of the factors cannot be determined until after the election? That kind of voids the whole predictive thing. 
 
Regardless, Lichtman is being proclaimed as the guy that predicted the election of Trump by the media, such as headlines like "Professor predicted Trump win, says he will be impeached".  It seems to me that he incorrectly predicted Trump would win the PV then he retroactively says his model correctly predicted the Clinton PV win but he is happy to take credit for also predicting Trump won the election. It seems that no matter what, his model is correct.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016 on: November 16, 2016, 06:28:18 pm
The media are saying he called the election correctly, but I thought the Lichtmann model was for predicting the PV winner. 
6  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban LittleBigPlanet on: November 16, 2016, 06:05:01 pm

Every report gets careful consideration.

This is an important point for all. If something is a problem then report it so that it goes 'in the system'. You cannot assume a mod reads every post, but every reported post will get considered. Maybe not immediately because mods arent around in every board 24/7 but it will be dealt with. And when someone builds up a record, then that poster gets reviewed.

Case in point, LittleBigPlanet has been permabanned.

The system may not always act as fast as possible but the slow wheels of justice will eventually grind on.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Should democrats focus on the South instead of Upper Midwest going forward? on: November 14, 2016, 11:00:17 am
This topic has been moved to 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252340.0
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: The popular vote argument on: November 13, 2016, 08:45:54 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Process.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252430.0
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 7 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 10, 2016, 06:00:40 pm
I was adding the estimated outstanding (minus an estimated discarded) to the Atlas number, which would end up to be around 130-131m.  Maybe that is what electproject.org is doing. If the estimated outstanding is added on top of their 129, then yes 2016 would set a new record. 

Not sure if electproject.org is factoring in the uncounted estimate or not.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 7 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 10, 2016, 05:39:04 pm
A lot of the remaining ballots are provisional, so up to 1/3 could end up being thrown out.  Still it looks like there will be more total votes than 2012, but not much more and likely not more than 2008. 

It will be interesting to see if in the end Trump ends up with more votes than Romney. He probably will but not a lot more. That could mean that Bush would still have the record for the most votes for a Republican at 62m. That would mean that for four elections in a row the GOP candidate got between 60m-62m, while the Dem candidate varied from 59m-69m.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did the exit polls discourage late voters? on: November 10, 2016, 05:26:21 pm
How many people are motivated enough to delve into exits to extrapolate a winner but unmotivated enough to be kept from voting because it looked like Clinton was going to win by 3%?  If anything the general feeling that Clinton was going to win due to pre-election polls might have kept some soft Clinton supporters away. Obviously a lot of Americans had a negative view of both Clinton and Trump, but in the end Clinton won that group overwhelmingly, and that was the difference. Perhaps a lot of those who didn't like either but were slightly more inclined for Clinton decided not to vote because they thought she was going to win so they didn't have to 'hold their nose' and vote.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The polls were not wrong. on: November 10, 2016, 05:21:33 pm
The national polls were off by 3 points, which isn't totally outside the MoE and all that different than previous cycles. And the polls in half of the swing states were off by less than 3 (FL, NM, VA, NV, VA, CO, GA) so those were also within the range, although again were mostly too D.

However the polls in NC plus the polls in the Upper Midwest/Rust Belt/New England (MN, WI, MI, OH, PH, NH, ME) were all off outside the MoE and all off in the same direction (too D). 

So the polls weren't all wrong but the polls in the NE were definitely wrong.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Votes separating Clinton from the presidency on: November 10, 2016, 05:14:42 pm

Michigan + Wisconsin + Pennsylvania = 107,330


MI +PA + ME2 + NE2 gets to 270 and that might be less than 100k.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why believe the exit polls? on: November 09, 2016, 11:16:19 pm
the first wave of exits were clearly wrong but the final update seems to match up with the results both nationally and at the state level. Surely there will be some error, especially with smaller subsamples, but they are still a useful tool to understand what's happening.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did James Comey costs Hillary the presidential election? on: November 09, 2016, 09:07:32 pm
well Clinton lost PA, MI and WI by 1% or less so if you think the comey email thing hit her by 1% or more, then you have to conclude yes. The polls were all off but there was certainly a trend down after the Comey letter. Also Trump won late deciders and he significantly won people who had a negative view of both Trump and Clinton.

Perhaps the candidate he one with the more recent 'scandal' was hurt more with this group who didn't like either. 

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders would have won on: November 09, 2016, 08:57:04 pm
It is hard to say. We do know that key elements of Sanders-ism didn't do well. In Colorado single-payer healthcare (essentially Sanders-care and something Sanders endorsed and campaigned for) was defeated by 60 points. And in California Sanders campaigned hard for Prop 51 to lower drug pricing (by setting CA prices to US VA pricing) lost by 8 points. California did pass a non-binding law against Citizens United (another signature Sanders issue) but that passed by less than 5% (significantly under-performing Clinton in CA).   

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 07:11:21 pm
GA was called at 8pm in 2012, VA wasn't called until around midnight I think.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 07:00:28 pm
VA Demographics (changes since 2012)

Race
White 68 (-2)
Black 20 (-)
Latino 6 (+1)
Asian 3 (-)
Other 3 (+1)

Education
College Grad 57 (+3)
Non-College 43 (-3)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:46:07 pm
Something to keep in mind at 7pm. 4 years ago only IN, KY, VT were called right away and GA, NH, SC, and VA were too close to call.   
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:34:34 pm
Party ID comparison (vs 2012)
Dem 37 (-1)
Independent 31 (+2)
Republican 32 (-)


So far the electorate looks
More Liberal (+2)
More Independent (+2)
More non-white (+2)
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:17:12 pm
Comparing Ideological breakdown 2016 (vs 2012):
liberals 27 (+2)
moderates 39 (-2)
conservatives 35 (-)


22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:39:54 pm
Racial makeup, per CNN TV:

white 70
black 12
latino 11
asian 4
other race 3



hmmm...
I would guess

White 70 (-2)
Black 12 (-1)
Hispanic 12 (+2)
Asian 4 (+1)
Other 2 (-)
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:31:19 pm
For comparison 2012 exits  (when decided to vote)
When Decide
Last few days/last week:9%
In october:11%
In september:9%
Before that:69%

So this year more people decided later
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 04:54:58 pm
Not exits but Trump's latest price on PredictIt before the exits comes out is around 20 cents. It was 22 cents the day before the first Comey letter then shot up to 36 cents last week but closed yesterday back at 22 cents after Comey's 2nd letter. 
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newspaper/Magazine Endorsements Megathread on: November 08, 2016, 04:46:08 pm
Thanks again Georgia Moderate

A breakdown of the top 100 papers can be found here
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2016_newspaper_endorsements.php

Clinton 57    (Obama got 41)
Trump 2         (Romney got 35)
Johnson 4    
Not Trump 3    
None 5    
No Endorsement 26

Of the 'No Endorsement' most are papers that don't endorse but 7 did Endorse in 2012 (6 Romney, 1 Obama)

2012 for Romney/No Endorsement 2016
New York Post
Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Investor's Business Daily (Los Angeles, CA)
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (Little Rock, AR)
Telegram and Gazette (Worcester, MA)

2012 for Obama/No Endorsement 2016

The Blade (Toledo, OH)

Probably the biggest surprise there is the NY Post. They are a top 10 paper (and of course Trump's home town paper). They have been very anti-Clinton and endorsed a whole slate of GOP candidates for other NY offices and generally support the GOP nominee.
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