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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: D: Clinton: 64% Biden 12%; R: Bush 12% Perry 12% Paul 11% on: August 02, 2014, 08:27:44 pm
Exactly, I would guess that for GOP over 50% is either supporting a candidate that isn't going to run or is undecided.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2014 on: August 01, 2014, 04:01:01 pm
sticking with Pence
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: August 01, 2014, 03:59:48 pm
Apparently The Lord has spoken to him....
Quote
Ben Carson, the former neurosurgeon turned conservative sensation, is taking a major step toward a 2016 presidential bid by forming a political action committee and selecting the man who would run his campaign, The Washington Times has learned.
Emerging from two-days of meetings with supporters in Palm Beach, Fla., Dr. Carson told the Times on Friday morning he has selected Houston businessman Terry Giles to be his 2016 campaign chairman should he run and approved the formation of a PAC called One Nation.


Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/1/ben-carson-takes-major-step-toward-presidential-ca/#ixzz39AzOwtF7
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: D: Clinton: 64% Biden 12%; R: Bush 12% Perry 12% Paul 11% on: July 29, 2014, 10:12:26 pm
or maybe they know he isn't going to run.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Kasich, & Paul by double digits on: July 29, 2014, 03:01:34 pm
But there is a clear correlation between age and Obama support, you could draw a straight line on a graph for it with the even finer age breakdowns. But for Clinton it is more of a curve with support with the youngs and olds but not as much in the middle. It is interesting.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: July 29, 2014, 01:19:52 pm
Speaking of which today Greg Abbott filed his appeal. He is going for the same "responsible procreation" argument that has been literally laughed at by other courts, including SCOTUS.

Quote
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott filed an appeal with the U.S. 5th Circuit Monday regarding the state’s same-sex marriage ban, which was ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge in February.

According to the brief, Abbott said Texas can ban same-sex marriage based on the State’s interest in procreation.

The State contends that marriage between a man and a woman “increases the likelihood” that they will produce and raise their children in “stable, lasting relationships.”

“Because same-sex relationships do not naturally produce children, recognizing same-sex marriage does not further these goals to the same extent that recognizing opposite-sex marriage does,” the brief reads. “That is enough to supply a rational basis for Texas’s marriage laws.”

The problem is that all the usual arguments about god and 'tradition' the generally 'icky' factor have no legal basis so they are left with this completely ludicrous argument.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Kasich, & Paul by double digits on: July 29, 2014, 01:13:50 pm
GenXers sure don't like Hilldog

It is an interesting question as to why Hillary does so much better than Obama with the olds but poorer with the GenXers. Could it simply be identity politics. Obama is seen as a Gen Xer and Hillary is a fellow old?

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 29, 2014, 01:05:00 pm
Well he is evangelical and I think if he runs this time he will make a play for that base, especially in IA...not letting Rick (who is actually Catholic) have them all to himself. I could see him getting 2nd in IA, lower in NH, but then coming back to win SC.

It all depends on the field and his ability to avoid gaffes of course. The media will be looking for anything that proves the 'Perry is an idiot' narrative so he will have to very careful to reshape that image. One lapse could kill him.

I am not saying he is a front runner, but the notion that his run is an 'lol' is itself 'lol'.

Of course his chances against Hillary are probably 'lol' but that is a different story.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: July 29, 2014, 12:48:00 pm
So that means 2 appeals to SCOTUS. I still suspect they wont do anything until one of the appeals courts rules in favor of SSM. So this might not get decided before the 2016 election.
You mean doesn't rule in favor?

Yes I meant in favor of SSM ban. The point being that SCOTUS like to take cases with split decisions. So far every decision is going in favor of repealing SSM bans. But eventually some judge or appellate court is going to uphold a SSM ban (probably for TX) and then SCOTUS will step in...and likely they will make SSM legal everywhere.

So the question is, how long will this take? Will they take it up next session? If not then this will be bigger issue for 2016 presidential campaign.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 29, 2014, 12:43:20 pm
GOPers tend to nominate someone who has run before, the only modern exception was George Bush Jr. who had the built in name recognition. Perry has done all the right things since 2012 in rehabilitating his image, and not just the glasses. He is being seriously under-estimated. His big liability is his bad debate performances in 2011, so what happens after he is able to deliver a couple of good debate performances in 2015? Then everyone will remember the good stuff they liked about him that made him the front-runner the minute he got in the race in August 2015. 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Sarah Palin be the 2016 nominee? on: July 29, 2014, 12:39:43 pm
Palin would only run if she could figure out how she could make $ off the run. Perhaps all her events would be pay-per-view.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: D: Clinton: 64% Biden 12%; R: Bush 12% Perry 12% Paul 11% on: July 29, 2014, 12:37:35 pm
Perry has been on TV a lot with this new 'immigration crisis' on the border and fighting with Obama over it, and that sells well with the GOPers. I still think he is a contender for 2016.

Of course this is another poll where the real GOP leader is 'other/undecided' at 15%, showing how totally open it really is. There is no 'front runner'...there isn't really a 'top tier'...there is just a lot of middle and lower tier.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: July 28, 2014, 01:54:34 pm
So that means 2 appeals to SCOTUS. I still suspect they wont do anything until one of the appeals courts rules in favor of SSM. So this might not get decided before the 2016 election.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Beginning to Accept Obamacare is Here to Stay on: July 24, 2014, 05:20:10 pm
If all the predictions of death panels, death spirals, exploding unemployment, exploding costs, lack of signups, etc does not happen by 2016, will the GOP have any price to pay for being so colossally wrong? They will have had sued Obama over it, shut down the government over it, constantly harped on it for years and by the next general election it will likely be an accepted part of the American healthcare system.

Can they really run on how they are the ones to 'fix' what problems there are?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Rand Paul going to escape his dad? on: July 23, 2014, 03:18:19 pm
The key will be to keep dad under control during the campaign. It will be like with Hillary and Bill in 2008. Anything Bill said or did immediately reflected back on Hillary. So if Ron Paul gives a speech somewhere during the 2016 campaign and says something about how Russia has a right to Crimea or that Heroin should be legal or any other thing, Rand will have to spend a whole news cycle dealing with it.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 23, 2014, 03:15:14 pm
He is definitely going to run and if he can perform well in a couple of debates he will be a contender.

He is still the ideal GOP candidate on paper, conservative evangelical governor from state with good economic story.

His chance go up for each other prominent person choosing not to run (Bush, Christie, Walker, etc)
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The Leftovers on: July 19, 2014, 01:05:30 am
The show is a little slow and kind of depressing but still pretty good. But don't watch it assuming they are going to spend a lot of time exploring the mystery of the disappeared people. Apparently that question will never be answered.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Chris Christie going to run in 2016? on: July 17, 2014, 12:16:57 am
I dont think so. His whole master plan was to set up a dominant position as the bipartisan choice and use that electiblity argument to trump any RINO issues. He was also expecting major financial backing so he can outspend his more conservative rivals.  Now he is left as a RINO with staffers expecting indictments and possibly under investigation himself and without the bipartisan support or big money.  And he doesnt seem to be the kind of guy who would runny a scrappy insurgency campaign and flip flop and pander his way to relevance.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rick Santelli, creator of the Tea Party, gets his pants pulled down on CNBC on: July 15, 2014, 10:03:01 pm
The real question is why does CNBC keep bringing back a guy who has been so colossally and consistently wrong.


20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best GOP position on immigration/DREAM for primary AND general? on: July 15, 2014, 08:43:11 pm
It is not just Hispanics but also Asians. In 2016 it is likely that combined they will account for 15% of the vote. And more importantly both groups have shown a much larger range of swing than Whites and Blacks.

Here is the GOP vote share for each group in last 4 elections...

YEAR    W   B   H   A
2000   55   9   35   41
2004   58   11   44   43
2008   55   4   31   35
2012   59   6   27   26

So even with Romney's pedal to the metal focus on white voters, they could only squeak out 59%, more than Bush Jr. who won in 2004! Even in 1988 when Bush Sr. won in a landslide with race-baiting Willie Horton ads, he only got 60% of whites. So I really don't see how the GOP can just write off non-whites and assume they can keep running up the score with whites in the mid 60s. Especially against Hillary who is...um...white.

Clearly Hispanics and Asians have shown they are true swing voters, or at least they were. The GOP is risking turning them into a solid block for the Dems (just look at what has happened to the GOP in California post Pete Wilson and Prop 187 in 1994, since then GOP vote share among Hispanics in CA has remained in the 20s, Reagan won 45% of CA Hispanics in 1980).

So getting back to the OP point, how can a GOPer thread the needle and be for immigration reform for the general but somehow survive the GOP primary? 
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Perry writes WaPo op/ed attacking Rand Paul foreign policy on: July 15, 2014, 05:02:00 am
I think Perry has been playing good politics lately. He is taking on the President and the isolationist wing of the GOP, sending a message to the establishment neocons that he is on their team.

If you compare Perry post 2012 to Palin post 2008, Perry is showing how you come back from being a punchline. He may not completely rehabilitate himself but I still think he has a good shot at 2016 nom
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Best GOP position on immigration/DREAM for primary AND general? on: July 15, 2014, 02:58:52 am
In the post 2012 GOP "autopsy" there was only one policy recommendation - embrace comprehensive immigration reform. The only GOP candidate to win the popular vote since GW Bush in 1988 was Bush Jr. in 2004 who got 40% of the Hispanic vote, and he supported comprehensive immigration reform (but didn't have a GOP primary to worry about). But 4 years later McCain had to renounce his own support for it during the primaries, but he still lost general (with big dip in Hispanic and Asian support). In 2012 you can say that Mitt Romney used his opposition to immigration reform and any kind of DREAM act or benefits to immigrants to win the GOP nomination (lets not forget 'self-deportation').

So how does a GOPer thread the needle? What is the right position on immigration and DREAM Act for 2016? Is there any position that could get a GOPer back into the 40% range of Hispanics and Asians for the general (what is needed to win) that could survive the primaries?

 
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservatives Are Purposely Making Their Cars Spew Black Smoke To Protest Obama on: July 05, 2014, 07:49:08 pm
Obama needs to come out strongly against jumping into the lion pen at the zoo while wearing a meat suit.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul by double digits on: July 04, 2014, 03:45:04 pm
Paul and Cruz used to be lumped together as "Tea Party Republicans" but in the last year or so Paul has done a good job of differentiating himself from Cruz, while at the same time not associating himself with the Bush/Romney/Christie GOP establishment wing.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2014 on: July 04, 2014, 03:41:33 pm
Still Pence, but no one has more than a 10-15% chance at this point. never seen something so wide open.

And I still think Perry is totally underrated. I think he will bounce back.
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