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May 02, 2016, 08:14:03 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: April 29, 2016, 07:08:07 pm
according to NBC, Clinton has stopped spending on any TV ads.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-not-airing-ads-upcoming-primary-states-n564176

Sanders is still spending in most of the upcoming states, including CA.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Is Indiana flyover country on: April 27, 2016, 04:18:01 pm
This topic has been moved to U.S. General Discussion.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235502.0
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Will you vote for Trump this general election? on: April 27, 2016, 03:05:11 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235479.0
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination? on: April 27, 2016, 11:06:59 am
It is still a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA, but now his target seems very reachable.  The stop Trump and Cruz/Kasich forces need to win IN and really need to nail it in their targetting of districts in CA.  Right now I think the most likely scenario is Trump winning first ballot but needing unpledged to do it
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz major announcement at 4 PM on: April 27, 2016, 11:01:03 am
According to sources, Cruz will be changing a major position.  He will no longer consider THE PRINCESS BRIDE his favorite film, but will now back HOOSIERS as the best.  He will then recite the Gene Hackman/Coach Dale inspirational pregame speech word for word
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Charles Koch ready for Hillary? on: April 26, 2016, 02:45:16 pm
I think the main thing here is that Trump should not expect some of the big spenders like the Kochs, the Ricketts family and others to fund the outside groups that helped Romney, or at least not at those levels. Those groups will likely focus on the Senate, House and other downballot races.

This brings up the bigger issue of how will Trump fund his fall campaign. He has been self-financing (via loans) and relied heavily on free media, but will that work for the fall? At the RNC meeting last week his new team said he was going to be able to raise tons of money due to his great Rolodex, but that is still an open question.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary Clinton clinch the nomination tomorrow? on: April 26, 2016, 02:38:50 pm
Obviously not, but the media usually report her delegate total with supers and after tonight she will have over 2100 and Sanders will have around 1400. The media will start treating Clinton as the 'almost certain' nominee. And if she rolls out more supers, she could get to 2383 before CA, maybe as early as May 17 after KY and OR, and then they will declare her the 'presumptive nominee'. It will drive Team Bernie crazy of course, but the media are counting the supers even though they don't vote until the convention.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Who did you vote for today? on: April 26, 2016, 11:18:39 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235389.0
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ARG - MD and PA: Trump & Clinton lead on: April 25, 2016, 01:33:24 pm
Maybe they accidentally swapped their Dem PA and MD numbers
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination? on: April 25, 2016, 01:28:09 pm
He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Today (April 25) is the midpoint between Iowa and the Convention on: April 25, 2016, 01:23:42 pm
Another way to look at it is that tomorrow is the end of the third quarter as both sides pass the 75% mark in terms of pledged delegates. And to extend the metaphor, both sides may be headed into OT.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz allowing Kasich to compete in New Mexico and Oregon on: April 24, 2016, 11:12:05 pm
Obviously they should have started doing this weeks ago. Will this be the limit of this 'collaboration'? I assume Kasich will avoid MT, NE and the Dakotas as well, but what about WV, KY, WA, NJ and most importantly..CA?  Certainly in CA they are going to have to split up the CDs between them. Keeping Trump from winning a majority of CA CDs is pretty much the whole ballgame for the Stop Trump movement. 
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz is incapable of winning a general election, & Trump is a stronger candidate on: April 24, 2016, 03:21:04 pm
Former McCain staffer Nicole Wallace said something interesting on this topic today on MTP:
Quote
NICOLLE WALLACE:

And the real conversations, you both know this, that are taking place are how we lose. Do we lose with Cruz? I mean the reality we can try to-- We can try to spin it into something else. It's do we lose with Cruz, who we know will not appeal to the people who determine the outcome of elections, largely women, largely independents and swing voters, or do we roll the dice on Trump?

And on CNN, Trump son (Don Jr) accused the GOP elites of the same thing, saying
Quote
[Cruz] will lose more states than Mitt Romney, because I can't name a single state that Mitt lost that Ted can possibly win. So I think, at this point, the Republican establishment would much rather just hand the things over to Hillary.
...
You know, there are decisions that are being made, and there's things that I see and actions happening that make me really question whether they actually want someone who could actually win.

Will we see this notion of "let's lose with Cruz" become the new rallying cry within GOP elites?  Is this the new "Vote for the crook, it's important" ?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Will the Libertarian Party replace the GOP? on: April 23, 2016, 06:14:29 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235187.0
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: To tell the truth I like Ted Kruz on: April 22, 2016, 06:38:53 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=234994.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign: CT and IL are in play against HRC this fall on: April 22, 2016, 04:42:11 pm
This is obviously bluster aimed directly at the crowd at this weekends RNC meeting. Cruz and Kasich are arguing that Trump is a GE disaster in the waiting. Team Trump is trying to counter that narrative, in essense admitting that maybe those usual battleground states with lots of Latinos wont vote Trump, but he is going to put others into play, so don't worry.   Will they buy it?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Feel the Bern on: April 22, 2016, 12:49:26 pm
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235105.0
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: April 22, 2016, 11:38:14 am
I think the CFG is just in IN. Wonder if the other anti Trump supper PACs that spent in WI will play in IN as well.  Also it's interesting they are targeting Kasich voters instead of Trump.


Edit: saw a guy from the Our Principles PAC says they will start TV and Radio in  Indiana tomorrow
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: How much money did you waste on Bernie Sanders? on: April 22, 2016, 08:37:15 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235075.0
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Who will you vote for? on: April 22, 2016, 08:34:43 am
This topic has been moved to Individual Politics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235086.0
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HuffPo: Hillary's NY win is irrelevant on: April 21, 2016, 05:31:42 pm
I am going to impose a new rule for posting links to opinion pieces in order to distinguish them from actual reporting and from other opinion pieces. Attribution has to be made clear it is not to the publication or host, unless said opinion pieces is specifically speaking on behalf of the entire publication. Newspapers and especially HuffPo are home to a myriad of opinion writers and bloggers. In many cases these sites are merely hosting something and the writer in question isn't even paid. So it is different than actual paid journalists for HuffPo or NYT or any given outlet.


In this particular case therefore it isn't "HuffPo" it is "HuffPo opinion writer" or even better "HuffPo blogger" or ideally "Seth Abramson".  Same would be true for opinion pieces from the NYT for example, so it isn't "NYT: blah blah" unless it is from the editors, otherwise it is the specific opinion writer "Krugman: blah blah" or generic "NYT opinion writer: blah blah"
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz on the decline? on: April 21, 2016, 01:16:39 pm
The next real test for him will be Indiana. The 'Stop Trump' movement will be back, running anti-Trump ads and Cruz is a good fit for the state. But will he being 'mathematically eliminated' relegate him in voters minds? I don't see Cruz voters switching to Trump, but will they stay home? How motivating is it to vote for a contested convention?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: raise taxes on the wealthy & let trans people switch bathrooms on: April 21, 2016, 12:52:22 pm
Has he not read his own tax plan calling for huge cuts to the top tax brackets and the elimination of the estate tax? To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if he hasn't read it.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will Bernie Sanders' concession speech sound like? on: April 21, 2016, 12:50:20 pm
If Sanders speaks at the DNC, it wont be a 'concession speech'. I assume his concession speech would come sometime in early June, like Hillary's '18 million cracks in the glass ceiling' speech on June 8, 2008.  His speech then would be probably a modified version of his stump that removed anything seen as attacking Clinton.   I suspect if he gets a DNC speech, it would mostly focus on Republicans and how they are beholden to the special interests and the rich.

This all assumes he doesn't go down the scorched Earth and attempt at nuclear option route, because that route has no 'concession speech' per se.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: March Fundraising on: April 21, 2016, 12:43:21 pm
Trump's campaign is 34 million dollars in debt??

That $34mm is presumably mostly money that the Trump campaign owes to Donald J. Trump because he has loaned the campaign money.  He is entitled to be paid back eventually.

That is the case. And that is why I used the term 'self-financing' instead of 'self-funding' He has donated some money to his campaign but the vast majority of it is in the form of loans. I suspect he expects that money to eventually be paid back, it may take years of selling 'Make America Great' merchandise, but he has gone out of his way to not truly 'self-fund'
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