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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Cruz 'stalking' Trump - invites him to join anti-Iran deal rally on: August 28, 2015, 10:57:51 am
The Cruz/Trump lovevest continues...
Quote
Donald Trump revealed Thursday that he’s been coordinating with Ted Cruz for a joint appearance at an event opposing the Iran deal in Washington.

“We are talking to Ted Cruz, who is a friend of mine and a good guy, about doing something very big over the next two weeks in Washington,” the billionaire businessman said after a rally in South Carolina. “It’s essentially a protest against the totally incompetent deal that we’re making with Iran.”

A spokeswoman for the Texas senator said Cruz invited Trump to join him on the Capitol grounds “to call on members of Congress to defeat the catastrophic deal that the Obama Administration has struck with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/27/ted-cruz-and-donald-trump-planning-a-joint-appearance-to-protest-the-iran-deal/

National Journal also has an extended piece on how Cruz is 'stalking' Trump
Quote
From the top down, in fact, Cruz's campaign has come to view Trump as an asset. Equipped with universal name-identification and celebrity appeal, Trump has a megaphone that Cruz could never dream of—even from his perch in Congress—to preach a fiery populism to angry voters. He has demonstrated a unique ability to galvanize conservatives (Cruz's base) and steer the 2016 conversation toward subjects like illegal immigration (Cruz's wheelhouse) that may otherwise have been secondary.
....
The Cruz camp is confident that Trump's candidacy will have a natural arc, that eventually political gravity will pull his numbers down, and that when it happens, Cruz will be ideally positioned to absorb his current supporters. In the meantime, Trump will sustain plenty of attacks from other opponents. And as an added bonus for Cruz's hands-off approach, Trump is doing his dirty work. The real-estate mogul has been especially harsh lately on Scott Walker, long considered by Cruz's camp to be their most direct competition in Iowa because of his appeal to both evangelicals and tea-partiers.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/ted-cruz-is-stalking-donald-trump-20150827
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Carson: There's no war on women - just what is inside women on: August 28, 2015, 10:42:03 am
The GOP runner-up behind Trump in the polls is doing his part to help fix the party's problem with the gender gap...
Quote
“They tell you that there’s a war on women,” [Dr. Ben] Carson said at a rally in Little Rock, Ark. on Thursday. “There is no war on women – there may be a war on what’s inside of women, but there is no war on women in this country,” he continued, referring to abortion.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252167-carson-theres-a-war-on-whats-inside-of-women

I'm sure women will be delighted to see that they are incidental to the discussion of abortion, as mere vessels of fetuses.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Planned Parenthood Videos Were Altered on: August 27, 2015, 08:21:22 pm
Here's what I learned from these videos and subsequent coverage
1. PP donates fetal tissue from abortions, which turns out to be legal and important for research so good for them.
2. Some people who work for PP talk about aborted fetuses and fetal tissue in a casual or even callous way, which isn't cool.

I was also reminded that in general abortion is kind of gross and not something I want to see in detail.

But not sure why any of this should change public policy towards abortion or the funding of Planned Parenthood for non-abortive women's health. Can anyone care to explain why it should?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton compares pro-lifers to terrorist groups on: August 27, 2015, 08:14:06 pm
She didn't even really compare anyone to terrorists, her point was that some of the archaic thinking is expected from more extremist groups.

there are much much much better ways for her to make the point that women spent the 20th century  fighting for many freedoms and now in the 21st century they arent going to give them up to some GOPers who sound like they want to take women back to the 19th, 18th and some even to Medieval times.

Bottom line is when you mention terrorists it is like mentioning nazis. It is a conversation stopper. It is stupid and she shouldn't have done it. Her 'gaffe' and questions over whether she should apologize become the story.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the October debate has only 6 people, and no mini debate, who should go? on: August 27, 2015, 08:10:05 pm
I still say Graham over Christie, he is clearly funnier and better with the zingers. Christie is just a bully, but you already got Trump for that.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the October debate has only 6 people, and no mini debate, who should go? on: August 27, 2015, 07:47:38 pm
well if you are going for entertainment spectacle, then Graham is a much better choice than Christie if you want a showdown with Paul. And Perry should also be brought up from the minors because he yells all his answers and there is always the chance he shows up drunk or armed or both. And while we are at it, bring Herman Cain back from retirement, awwwww shucky ducky!
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The official Dr. Ben Carson discussion thread on: August 27, 2015, 06:37:49 pm
Today Trump said that the reason he is always going after Bush is because "I thought he was the one to beat" but he noted that Carson is now in second and although he thinks Carson is a "nice guy" if it gets closer he "may have to" go after him.

If Trump started going after Carson (especially the way he has gone after Bush) I think it would backfire. There is a lot of overlap between Carson supporters and Trump supporters, but very little with Bush. He could end up alienating his own base who dont hate Carson and dont want to see him savaged by Trump.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 27, 2015, 02:27:19 pm
The 'first word that comes to mind' open question is interesting.

Here are top 5 for Clinton, Bush and Trum

Hillary Clinton
liar               
dishonest           
untrustworthy       
experience         
strong             

Jeb Bush
Bush (yes, the number one word that comes to mind for Jeb Bush is "Bush")               
family               
honest               
weak                 
brother             

Donald Trump
arrogant             
blowhard             
idiot               
businessman         
clown             
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump a sincere Christian? on: August 27, 2015, 02:17:58 pm
I really don't care. If someone says he or she is a Christian, that person is a Christian. Who am I to say who a real Christian is?

While I usually agree with that, now that Trump has added talking about the bible to his stump speech, it is a fair question. He wants to get votes using his religion so he has made it an issue.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton compares pro-lifers to terrorist groups on: August 27, 2015, 02:14:58 pm
she should get a warning for hyperbole.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Carson holds Latino Outreach Event - No Latinos Show Up on: August 27, 2015, 01:59:50 pm
On Monday in SC (where he is running second behind Trump) Carson reached out to the Latinos...
Quote
Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson began a full day of campaigning in South Carolina Monday with a 7:30 a.m. appearance at a Seneca landscape business that was billed as a “Latino Outreach Event.”

As it turned out, there appeared to be no Latinos in the audience of about 25, except for the owner of Unlimited Landscapes, Tony Francisco, and his brother, Poncho Francisco.
http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/2015/08/24/latinos-missing-carson-event/32268363/
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 01:15:54 pm
In the final two weeks before the Fox polling cutoff, there were 7 qualifying polls. That should give us a rough idea of what to expect. Gilmore needs at least 1% in two of those to be invited.
I seriously doubt we will see 7 new polls in the next two weeks. With the FOX debate only the final 5 were included and so a lot of pollsters rushed out at the end to be part of the average. This time everyone gets in so no rush. Plus you have Labor Day weekend where polling companies dont tend to run polls. I think there may be more like 3 or 4 more polls.

So far the only one we know for sure is Monmouth coming out next week. Politico also reports that it is unlikely NBC will have one out before the CNN debate.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 12:17:51 pm
The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?


yes, but there is still a good amount of time. Not sure what he can do to get a mention in the news though. He should have done something dramatic during his time at the Iowa State Fair, or maybe even carved off a slice of the Butter Cow and spread it on some toast.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton and Trump ahead on: August 27, 2015, 12:13:30 pm
3% for Huck and 2% for Paul are all time lows (or at least tied for all time lows) for both of them.

Also besides Fiorina, everyone else who attended the Fox kids table debate continues to do worse in the post-debate polls. I think there is a Hunger Games aspect to the kids debate. 1 winner and everyone else is a loser.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 12:06:55 pm
For the record, here is the post-debate avg (3 polls: Fox, CNN, Quinni)

1   Trump   25.7
2   Carson    11.0
3   Bush    9.7
4   Cruz    7.3
5   Walker    6.7
6   Rubio    6.3
7   Fiorina    5.0
8   Kasich    4.7
9   Huckabee    4.3
10   Paul    3.7
11   Christie    3.3
12   Perry    1.3
13   Santorum    1.0
14   Jindal    0.3
15   Pataki   0.3
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 12:00:00 pm
Updated with new Quinnipiac poll

Nothing much has changed except Rubio has squeaked past Huck for 6th place. Even though Fiorina is ranked 7th in the post debate polls her pre-debate polls are weighing her down so much that she is still ranked 12th behind Perry.

CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 12 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 3)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.8
2   Bush    12.0
3   Walker    10.3
4   Carson    7.3
5   Cruz    6.1
6   Rubio    5.9 ↑
7   Huckabee    5.8 ↓
8   Paul    5.1
9   Kasich    3.4
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.0
12   Fiorina    1.9
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Jindal    1.1
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3
17   Gilmore   0.1

======NOT YET QUALIFIED*=======

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank
* CNN requires avg of 1% in 3 polls to qualify

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the October debate has only 6 people, and no mini debate, who should go? on: August 26, 2015, 10:00:38 pm
Consensus seems to be Trump, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Walker & Cruz


That's because they are top 6 in polling, even if you extend beyond national and include early states.  That being said I doubt CNBC will limit to 6 with no kiddie table.  But I would like to see them maybe limit to 8 and factor in early state polling. As for the remaining 9 perhaps a round table discussion with only those polling above 1%
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will take Trump down? on: August 26, 2015, 08:36:51 pm
So apparently he will not be taken down on bible questions. In an interview on Bloomberg Trump was asked what his favorite verses were and he said he didn't want to talk about it because it is 'too personal.'

...nice dodge
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 26, 2015, 07:35:07 pm
Quote
Federal Election Commission guidelines make it clear that these criteria cannot be changed after they have been published.

HuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuh

That seems unlikely. Fox changed their rules for the kiddie table debate like a week beforehand.

I don't know why CNN would be conspiring against Fiorina. They can't really still be in love with Christie can they?

The change to the Fox debate made the kiddie table more inclusive. Fiorina is asking for a change that would exclude another candidate (likely Christie) from the main debate. That would show bias and surely generate an official FEC complaint from the Christie campaign.

I doubt CNN cares who gets the 10th spot. It won't effect the ratings
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 26, 2015, 07:22:06 pm
I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.


Well it wasn't listed on their original list of approved polling companies, so apparently not. But as you noted, it does use a different methodology, both in terms of the pool of respondents but also how they don't push undecideds. So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb (on shooting): that's too bad, I have to go to lunch now on: August 26, 2015, 07:03:08 pm
that reminds me of this great moment from the last Bush presidency
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCm9788Tb5g
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 26, 2015, 06:46:54 pm
The Fiorina campaign has now officially started calling foul for CNN using so many pre-debate polls in their average. This morning on Morning Joe, Fiorina said:
Quote
I didn’t think the Fox News rules were good using national polls; I don’t think the CNN rules are particularly good
Then her campaign posted an attack on CNN and the RNC which includes this:
Quote
Despite being solidly in the top 10 by every measure, the political establishment is still rigging the game to keep Carly off the main debate stage next month.
The Fiorina campaign offers a solution, notably to weight the post-debate polls differently.

Politico reports that before going public the campaign tried to convince CNN and RNC to change the rules but they were rebuffed. CNN also made it clear they arent changing the rules...
Quote
“CNN published the criteria for the CNN-Reagan Library debate on May 20th. It will encompass polling data from three weeks prior to the first debate and five weeks following,” said CNN spokeswoman Barbara Levin. “Federal Election Commission guidelines make it clear that these criteria cannot be changed after they have been published.

Politico also reports there is a new Quinnipiac is coming out tomorrow and Monmouth has one coming out next week but that the labor day weekend will preclude a 'flood of new polls' right before the CNN cutoff (like what was seen for the Fox poll). They specifically reported that NBC is unlikely to have a new poll.

So as of now, it is not looking good for Carly.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have we missed Trump's peak? on: August 26, 2015, 04:22:28 pm
While those picking Trump in polls may not be 'likely voters,' that is a separate issue to whether or not he has 'peaked'
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Watch Trump imitate asian negotiators broken english on: August 26, 2015, 04:07:06 pm
For weeks Asians have felt left out of the discussion, with Latinos getting all the love hate. But this week it seems to be their turn, with Bush talking about Asian anchor babies and todayTrump doing an actual impression of broken english Asian negotiator "we want deal"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6zk31iNtHs

Of course the way things are going, this will likely only get Trump another bump up in the polls.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How brutal is this Scott Walker clip? on: August 26, 2015, 03:46:27 pm
I wondered back when he made this comment, what weird political calculus was his notion of going to a gay reception but not a gay wedding?

We saw the same thing with his various positions on the 14th amendment and birthright citizenship last week. These kind of meandering positions of trying to placate the base while not seeming too extreme always seem to end up with him tripping over himself.
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