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February 27, 2015, 02:32:30 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NC Senate considers bill for magistrates to opt-out of SSM marriages on: February 25, 2015, 07:16:36 pm
Since Roe conservatives have used state legislatures effectively to limit access to abortions, especially in the last few years. It seems they are trying the same tactic with same sex marriage.. But this time they are going to run into constitutional   problems in the courts.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BOOM! Trump seriously preparing, starts hiring staffers on: February 25, 2015, 06:56:10 pm
Will having Trump on the debate stage make them all seem more clownish or make them all look more statesmanly by contrast
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker on gay rights issues: a primer on: February 25, 2015, 06:48:55 pm
Another arrow in the "Walker is the candidate who doesn't answer questions" quiver...

There is a limit to how long he can keep up the Johnny Tightlips routine. Once he is announced candidate he will eventually be pinned down on all the big issues by the media or by his opponents in debates. Also if he wants to be the evangelical candidate he will have to talk about gays, you know Huck and Cruz and Santorum will.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush or Scott Walker on: February 25, 2015, 02:46:15 am
Jeb Bush, hands down. Reasons: Money, Florida, Latinos
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Graham's military service make a dif? on: February 24, 2015, 11:40:42 pm
Considering how we rarely elect the candidate with military service, no, it won't.

I was talking GOP nomination where all post WW2 nominees until Romney had military service. I could see him bringing up his deployments in debates to show his bonafides vs some one like Walker who is not deft on foreign policy.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Challenge: Describe a potential Obama 2012/Walker 2016 voter on: February 24, 2015, 09:50:03 am
Hispanic voter from Colorado who researched and found out that Walker at one point supported comprehensive immigration reform. This Hispanic voter gives walker the benefit of the doubt and  assumes he deep down still supports that.

So after a campaign season of Walker rallying against amnesty for illegals, an Obama voter will chose Walker over Hillary because he thinks Walker was lying? Instead of voting for Hillary who (like Obama) openly supports immigration reform?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Graham's military service make a dif? on: February 24, 2015, 09:47:39 am
Mitt Romney was the GOP's first nominee since Dewey who didn't serve in the military, but military service wasn't an issue  as none of the candidates had served. Looking at the 2016ers there is only one serious candidate who served and that is Lindsay Graham, who joined the USAF JAG corps right out of college and is still a colonel in the reserves (and has even been deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan)



Graham is already setting himself up as the hawkish candidate focusing on foreign policy. Could his unique position as the only one with a military history help?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP caucus in North Dakota on: February 24, 2015, 08:09:43 am
It's a Super Tuesday State, thus very interesting.
no, it's not

FFS, stop
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Videos/Commercials Thread on: February 24, 2015, 04:59:26 am
Jeb's PAC turned his speech last week into web ad called "Leadership"
http://youtu.be/5uB7KpGIYN8


Karl Rove's American Crossroads PAC uses Elizabeth Warren's voice in anti-Hillary ad "Rigged"
http://youtu.be/z1iz2JZY7Z8


10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 57% now support sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS on: February 22, 2015, 12:51:53 am
While it is true that Americans seem to be warming up to a more aggressive stance, I think that this is one of those things where wording really counts. Would Americans really support an Iraq War level commitment (which was 200,000 troops and trillions of $?). And do they really want us to invade Syria with combat troops? (not too long ago they were against even air strikes in Syria)
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Guiliani: Obama under Communist influence since age 9 on: February 22, 2015, 12:47:13 am
What's funny is Guiliani lost (badly) in 2008 because he was rejected by the core of the GOP for being too moderate. I guess he has taken the "if you can't beat em, join em" attitude towards the crazy wing of the party
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP primary in Tennessee on: February 22, 2015, 12:38:18 am
Are you going to start one of these threads for every state? By the time of the TN primary there is no way that many candidates will even be running, probably only have 2 or 3 left.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker on if Obama loves America: "I don't really know" on: February 22, 2015, 12:31:02 am
Walker seems to have a 'punting' problem. Bush, Rubio, Paul and Graham have all come out and said something to the effect of they "don't question Obama's motives just his policies." What is so hard about that?

He wouldnt talk about evolution, he wouldn't take a position on if the president loves america, he won't say if he supports ground troops against ISIS, he wont say what he would do with the undocumented (except 'no amnesty').  He can't keep dodging questions like this

EDIT: Walker is also unsure if Obama is a Christian
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/walker-says-he-is-unaware-whether-obama-is-a-christian/2015/02/21/6fde0bd0-ba17-11e4-bc30-a4e75503948a_story.html

Expect Walker to also not be able to weigh in on if Obama is straight, black, a father, good at basketball, or even a homo sapien
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rudy Giuliani: Obama doesn't love America on: February 20, 2015, 05:59:37 am
Rudy says he can question Obama's patriotism because 9/11
http://www.mediaite.com/online/giuliani-defends-comments-on-obamas-patriotism-he-didnt-live-through-911-i-did/
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich calls for "boots on the ground" to combat Islamic State on: February 20, 2015, 05:52:20 am
Kasich is parroting what some GOPers in Congress have already been saying, including Lindsay Graham.

I have contended for a while that the issue of combat troops for ISIS will be a big issue for the primaries and in the general. A new CBS poll actually shows a majority of Americans supporting combat troops (in both Iraq and Syria!). This includes 72% of Republicans.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/256254660/Cbs-News-Poll-on-Isis-2-19-15

With that kind of support, I expect we will see more GOP2016ers voice support for ground troops.

And then there is the Dem side. What will Hillary's position be? We know where Bernie Sanders will be.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 18, 2015, 05:05:22 pm
- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.

According to the author of the 'keys' model, she is two away (as of last summer)
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/208673-why-democrats-need-hillary-clinton-in-2016
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Democrat Bench for President... on: February 17, 2015, 11:46:47 pm
In the context of the 2016 fight, the bench only really matters if something happens to Clinton. If this fall Hillary was facing only weak/token opposition but then dropped out, you would see quite a few people from Adam T's list come off that bench. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them didn't have some kind of plan in place just for that possibility.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 17, 2015, 11:40:33 pm
I guess it all depends on which tea leaves you want to look at. This analysis of post-WW2 trends is bad for the Dems. And there is the precedent that the younger candidate tends to win (and everyone is younger than Hillary)

Then there are things that show Dem advantages:
- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)
- Demographic analysis trend
- Betting odds
- Polls (w/ Hillary)

So there is something for everybody to hang hat on
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NJ-Rutgers/Eagleton: Hillary clobbers all Republicans on: February 17, 2015, 08:16:09 pm
Remember when people thought Christie could make NJ competitive?
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Majority of Obama states now have no death penalty or moratorium on: February 17, 2015, 05:14:57 am
An excellent demonstration of the fact that a majority of a subgroup is often a minority of the whole group.  The death penalty states are still a majority in both states and electoral votes.

While the death penalty is on the books in the majority of states, there are only a handful of states that are regularly executing people, notably TX, OK, and FL. Those three states account for 2/3s of the executions in the last 2 years.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA/NH/SC-Marist: 3-way Pub race on: February 15, 2015, 07:57:57 pm
It was be interesting to see the SC numbers without Graham. He could end up being a spoiler if SC becomes 'tie breaker', like Fred Thompson in 08 helped McCain beat Huckabee.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does it make sense for Christie to skip Iowa and focus on NH? on: February 15, 2015, 07:51:31 pm
Christie should mostly skip Iowa, but not entirely. While there have been some nominees who didn't win Iowa, they have all got into the double digits with the worst showings 88 Bush Sr in 3rd with 18% and McCain 13% in 08 (tying for 3rd). If Christie gets Giuliani type of 4% (6th place), he may not be able to rebound from that.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ashton Carter confirmed by Senate as Secretary of Defense, 93 - 5 on: February 12, 2015, 11:48:48 pm
how is it that Carter got nominated and had his confirmation hear after Lynch, yet they aren't even going to vote on her in committee until March?

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/loretta-lynch-attorney-general-delayed-confirmation-115138.html
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA-NSON Opinion Strategies: Walker ahead on: February 12, 2015, 11:43:31 pm
pretty embarrassing for Fiorina. Surprised Walker over Bush, I would have guess that would be the other way around. I guess winning the Limbaugh primary is paying off for Scott nationwide
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: KY Sen. Maj. Leader wants law to allow Paul to run for prez & senate @ same time on: February 12, 2015, 11:39:44 pm
My point was that back in 2010, Mitch McConnel and the KY GOP establishment were backing Paul's opponent Trey Grayson, so at the end of that election the party wasn't exactly Paul friendly. But unlike Ted Cruz, who continues to buck the TX GOP and establishment, Paul has made an effort. I suspect that if Ted Cruz needed the TX GOP to change the rules for him, they wouldn't. But Paul's efforts and support of McConnell has probably got the KY GOP on his side and so they probably will change the rules for him.
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