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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Which GOPer could skip Iowa? on: January 31, 2015, 09:01:18 pm
In the past some candidates on both sides have skipped Iowa, but went on to win the nomination, like John McCain in 08. So this year could any of the major GOP candidates skip Iowa, and if so, who?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 tipping point states on: January 31, 2015, 05:25:19 pm
VA, CO, or IA.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Official Videos/Commercials Thread on: January 30, 2015, 05:43:23 pm
Figure one thread for all the coming official videos from the candidates.

To start with here is the opening video from Scott Walker's "Our American Revival" PAC
http://youtu.be/7Qm4xGQYHBk

Just count the American flags and guys hardhats stock footage
BTW, Buzzfeed found a number of the Americans from the stock footage are actually not Americans
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/scott-walkers-our-american-revival-pac-uses-foreign-stock-vi#.ndrjXVM6vX
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should anyone GOPer in the current "group" scare the Democrats? on: January 30, 2015, 03:30:43 pm
Bush (assuming he sticks to his position on immigration reform) is probably the most formidable. Remember the last GOPer to win (George Bush Jr.) did it by appealing to non-whites and supporting immigration reform. Romney actually got a bigger share of the white vote than Bush in 04. He lost because of the incredibly bad numbers with non-whites.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney says he's not running on: January 30, 2015, 03:13:56 pm
NYT has interesting tidbit
Quote
He is scheduled to have dinner with Mr. Christie on Friday evening, according to two people with knowledge of his schedule, suggesting that Mr. Romney may be considering throwing his support, and that of his own political operation, to Mr. Christie.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/mitt-romney-2016-presidential-election.html?_r=0
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney says he's not running on: January 30, 2015, 02:59:27 pm
I was surprised when he signaled he was getting in so I guess this shouldn't be a surprise.

This shows that the establishment donor and elites class were never really with Romney, he was only their best chance in 2012. Remember all those calls for someone else like Christie to get into the race back then?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 29, 2015, 08:05:39 pm
but will Sanders run as a Dem or an Indie. Obviously Hillary is hoping for the former.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What about Lindsey Graham? on: January 29, 2015, 06:01:49 pm
While I didn't comment, I admit I didn't expect him to run. In fact I didn't expect Huckabee, Romney or Bush to run either.

THe GOP has never seen such an open opportunity. There is no 'next guy in line' front-runner. And 2012 showed that anyone can become the 'flavor of the month'. And every governor and senator secretly wants to be prez, so why not? You can get your message out, raise your profile, maybe get a cabinet job. And who knows, maybe even win.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton Improve on 2012? on: January 29, 2015, 05:30:42 pm
With an improved economy I see no reason to see why she doesn't do a bit better than 2012 Obama, although probably not matching 2008. She is likely to improve on his 2012 numbers with whites (mostly via big gains with white women) and it seems impossible for the GOP to make big enough gains among non-whites to offset that (and that assumed they are going to make any gains at all among non-whites, which is a big if)
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Grahaml launches exploratory committee on: January 29, 2015, 05:25:50 pm

Amazing how far they have fallen. In 2008 John McCain and Sarah Palin were the nominees for the Republican party to lead America. This week Palin's insane speech drove the final nail into her coffin of irrelevance and McCain has endorsed this pandering buffoon who has no chance of getting the nomination. 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee complains about "trashy" language from women at Fox News on: January 29, 2015, 05:19:34 pm
Comments like this (and of course his backing of Akin's rape comments) are not helping him with women. If he won the nomination, I think Hillary could actually win white women.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Clinton May Delay Campaign Launch Until Summer on: January 29, 2015, 04:11:46 pm
Once you are an official candidate you are expected to actually go out and campaign and also be available to the press, and issue statements on the issues of the day, etc. While you can do those things and even participate in debates while you are in the 'exploring' phase, it isn't expected. ANd as their aren't any other major candidates and there wont be any debates, I think she can get away with going 'exploratory' for Q2 2015 and then announce in the summer and start to actually campaign.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Rand Paul fails in 2016... on: January 28, 2015, 05:09:06 pm
I suspect he knows that winning on your first attempt is unlikely, so I suspect he is planning ahead to be the 'next guy in line' for 2020. That is why he wants to run for Senate and Prez at the same time in 2016.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Very early, but still worth keeping a close eye on... on: January 28, 2015, 03:07:18 pm
I don't think the Koch's are going to play in the GOP primary. I suspect they will spend a lot during the primaries, but it will be going after Hillary, maybe even trying to help her primary challenger by going after her from the left.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP declare war on local government autonomy, Greg Abbott to lead the charge on: January 26, 2015, 07:27:56 pm
The GOP are the Goldilocks of government. Federal gov and city gov bad, but state government is always right. I'm sure that has nothing to do with how Dems perform well nationally at the presidential level and locally in city governments.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does winning a presidential nomination show about a candidate's skills? on: January 26, 2015, 07:24:15 pm
Yes the whole process of taking about what a GE is going to be like with candidate x and y is premature before seeing what happens to them during the process, but that is what we do here. There really isn't any way to know what effect the nomination process will have. It can benefit someone like Clinton in 92 or harm a candidate like Romney in 12.  For now we can only guess.  

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton aides already talking about VP options on: January 26, 2015, 06:19:54 pm
Seems like they are debating whether to go geographic (swing state favorite son like Kaine or Bennett) or demographic (non-white like Booker, Castro, Harris). The decision will be tied with the GOP nominee. Unless the GOP nominates a non-whites welcoming candidate (ala Bush or Castro), Hillary will go with the safe white guy from a swing state.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin: "Of course" interested in 2016 White House bid on: January 25, 2015, 06:59:20 pm
She's tough and no nonsense, but she can't win nationally.

no nonsense? Did you listen to her speech yesterday?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-PPP: Hillary up easily on: January 22, 2015, 01:59:55 pm
As discussed in the other recent PA thread (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206063.0) the GOP has a big decision to make about how hard to go after PA. If numbers like this hold up, then PA's recent trend does look to be more about Obama's bad fit and the GOP may not want to waste money on a state that hasn't voted GOP for prez since Bush Jr. in 1988.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Brutal 2007 Romney anti-Huckabee spot gets leaked on: January 22, 2015, 01:47:40 pm
Buzzfeed got an unaired 2007 Romney TV spot that attacks Huckabee for pardoning a serial rapist and murderer
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/heres-the-willie-horton-ad-romney-almost-ran-against-mike-hu#.gib2pK7QOp

The ad had been talked about in a book before so it was known to exist, but curious that it leaks now, shortly after both Romney and Huckabee announce they may run. I bet someone on Team Romney wants to scare Mike out of the race, or maybe just send a signal to all the potential candidates that they know how to play rough.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Senate sort of says climate change is real sort of on: January 22, 2015, 01:36:16 pm
Well the GOP has moved on from the "it isn't happening" position to either "it's happening, but it isn't clear if/how much man is contributing to it" or even the more fatalistic "we are contributing to climate change, but the cost of doing anything about it isn't worth it" or "why do anything until China and India go all solar"
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2015 State of the Union Address Discussion Thread. on: January 20, 2015, 09:42:53 pm
How many times with a SOTU talk about going to Mars?
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2015 State of the Union Address Discussion Thread. on: January 20, 2015, 08:29:14 pm
If the worst happens, here is the man that will lead us in the coming Zombie Apocalypse



http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2015/01/20/obama-designated-survivor-state-of-the-union-ernest-moniz-sally-jewell/22051655/
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PA-Mercyhurst University: Hillary & Biden lead favorability ranking on: January 20, 2015, 07:21:28 pm
PA is the biggest strategic challenge for the GOP. Is it really a possible tipping point and if so, do they move into the top tier of spending like FL, OH,VA, CO? Or is the recent movement more about Obama and with Hillary does it move back firmly into the 'blue wall,' and do they ignore it.  The thing they shouldn't do is half-ass it with a small spend.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In London speech, Jindal criticizes "no go zones" in European countries on: January 20, 2015, 07:16:41 pm
Jindal may have some points in what he is saying.  But it may not resonate with the entire electorate.

yes imaginary "no go zones" doesn't resonate with the realty based community. Even FOX has apologized for their fearmongering on this. They are becoming laughing stocks in France for this fantasy. It is amazing that Jindal still went forward with it after it blew up in Fox's face last week.
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