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September 29, 2016, 03:26:44 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-SNL premiere hype thread - Alec Baldwin cast as Trump on: Today at 12:50:06 pm
Politico dives into some SNL pregame...
Quote
heading into Saturday, the biggest drama is how Baldwin and SNL will parody the GOP nominee: Will they mock his sniffles? His hair? His orange hue? His gesticulations? His supposed microphone malfunction? Or do they cast him in more ominous terms: as a racist hate-monger?

Some comedians are pressing for the latter.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/saturday-night-live-trump-228874
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newsweek (via Maddow) Trump co. did business in Cuba illegally during embargo on: September 28, 2016, 08:18:17 pm
maybe related to this?
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-donald-trump-golf-cuba/

that was from the summer and about how some Trump execs scouted locations in Cuba for a golf resort. This was at the time commercial travel to Cuba was not allowed.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Media Spin/Focus Group/Poll Megathread on: September 28, 2016, 06:08:59 pm
relevent...
Quote
Major Garrett Verified account ‏@MajorCBS Sep 27

On @foxandfriends @realDonaldTrump said he won a @CBSNews post-debate poll. We did not conduct a post-debate poll.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-SNL premiere hype thread - Alec Baldwin cast as Trump on: September 28, 2016, 04:18:03 pm
Hammond is still the announcer, so they are 'bringing him back' and he will probably appear in some sketches (he does Bill Clinton for example), but Lorne apparently felt they needed something more for Trump.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / pre-SNL premiere hype thread - Alec Baldwin cast as Trump on: September 28, 2016, 04:08:14 pm
This weekend is the premire of SNL. The show is often part of the national discussion around elections. The show reflects (or possibly shapes) perceptions, from "How am I losing to this guy" to "Lockbox" to "Strategery" to "I can see Russia from my house".  During the primaries Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton and Trump all showed up on the show. It would not be surprising to see Trump or Hillary cameos before the election.  

This thread is for SNL speculation, discussion, etc.  

To start things off, some news. SNL has announced that they have cast Alec Baldwin to play Trump up to the election.  They have also released a promo showing Baldwin as Trump...

https://www.instagram.com/p/BK6W7uJguop/

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Media Spin/Focus Group/Poll Megathread on: September 27, 2016, 09:40:43 pm
another focus group of undecided OH voters...about half thought Clinton won, none thought Trump did, but none were able to make up their minds yet.

 
http://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/debate-doesn-t-sway-focus-group-774317123949
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: September 27, 2016, 07:26:37 pm
In 2012 (just like this time) there were two weeks between the first two presidential debates (with the VP debate in between). Not counting tracking polls, there were four polls released during that period, with the first (from Pew) 5 days after the first debate.  So this weekend is probably a good bet. CNN hasn't done a poll in a few weeks so they are probably up for a new one.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Media Spin/Focus Group/Poll Megathread on: September 27, 2016, 05:14:21 pm
some post-debate Fox pundit bar maneuvering ...
Quote
While sitting in on Outnumbered as Tuesday’s guest Hashtag One Lucky Guy...Co-host Harris Faulkner asked [Bret] Baier if Trump “gets any credit for this being his first time.”

I do think he gets credit for just being on the stage,” he responded. “It legitimized him for being at this moment.”

http://www.mediaite.com/online/foxs-bret-baier-says-trump-receives-credit-for-just-being-on-the-stage/
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Media Spin/Focus Group/Poll Megathread on: September 27, 2016, 04:42:51 pm
WaPo had a small focus group of NC undecideds.
Some bits...
Quote
Trump’s response Monday night when Hillary Clinton accused him of not paying a cent of federal tax left Townley appalled. “That makes me smart,” Trump said, unapologetic and smiling, during the presidential debate, held in Hempstead, N.Y. That comment caused a gasp in the hotel conference room where Townley and five other undecided voters in this ­battleground state were watching the debate.
...
Each of the men and women said they had not yet found a candidate to rally around because they found fault with both. But after the debate, four of the six undecided voters said they now leaned toward Clinton after she showed mastery of the issues and appeared more presidential. A fifth voter declared himself essentially now in the Clinton’s camp: “After tonight, I think I am convinced, I will vote for Clinton,” said the Rev. Kelly Andrews, a Baptist pastor from Tarboro.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-lean-toward-clinton-among-one-group-of-undecided-north-carolina-voters/2016/09/27/ff271b2e-8469-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS: Donald Trump ups ad spending to $140M, expands into 3 more states on: September 27, 2016, 04:09:13 pm
relevant...
Quote
Donald Trump’s aides are discussing the possibility of asking him to write his biggest check yet to his own campaign to fund an ad blitz, and the billionaire candidate is open to the possibility, according to three people close to the nominee.

While Trump’s campaign has experienced a surge in small-dollar fundraising this month that could make an infusion of personal cash unnecessary, major Republican donors are nervous after a rocky first debate against Hillary Clinton and could ramp up pressure on their nominee to invest in the air war.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-campaign-self-fund-228801#ixzz4LUVnWq6g
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump really going to make the next two debates? on: September 27, 2016, 04:04:30 pm
David Gergen suggests that the way Trump may try to get out of it is to demand that Johnson is let into the next two and if Clinton refuses (which she would almost certainly do), then he would debate Johnson one on one on some cable channel (who would of course be happy to do it).  
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Former Latina Miss Universe: Trump called me "Miss Housekeeping" "Miss Piggy" on: September 27, 2016, 03:37:53 pm
This does seem to be a thing, especially with him attacking her weight again.  Just did a quick google news search, here is the last few hours....


BBC News : ‎ ‎   Alicia Machado: Ex:Miss Universe claims Trump called her 'Miss Piggy'
CBS News :  ‎   Who is Alicia Machado?
CNN : ‎ ‎   Who is Alicia Machado? Former Miss Universe said Trump called her Miss Piggy
Entertainment Weekly :  ‎   Donald Trump slams Miss Universe winner Alicia Machado: 'She gained a massive amount of weight'
Fox News : ‎ ‎   Donald Trump: Miss Universe Alicia Machado was 'the absolute worst'
Mashable :   How former Miss Universe Alicia Machado became Donald Trump's nightmare
NBCNews.com : ‎ ‎   Who's Alicia Machado, the Woman Trump Allegedly Called 'Miss Piggy'?
New York Magazine : ‎ ‎   How Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Made Alicia Machado the New Khizr Khan
New York Times : ‎ ‎   Shamed and Angry: Alicia Machado, a Miss Universe Mocked by Donald Trump
NPR : ‎ ‎   In Post:Debate Interview, Trump Again Criticizes Pageant:Winner's Weight
The Guardian : ‎ ‎   Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado on Trump: 'I know what he can do' : video
The Guardian : ‎ ‎   Alicia Machado, Miss Universe weight:shamed by Trump, speaks out for Clinton
The Guardian : ‎ ‎   Trump attacks Alicia Machado again: 'She gained a massive amount of weight. She was the worst'
TIME : ‎ ‎   Who Is Alicia Machado? She Says Donald Trump Called Her 'Miss Piggy'
Us Weekly : ‎ ‎   Donald Trump: Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado 'Gained a Massive Amount of Weight'
USA TODAY : ‎ ‎   Meet Alicia Machado, the pageant queen Trump called 'Ms. Housekeeping'
Washington Post : ‎ ‎   Alicia Machado, the woman Trump called Miss Housekeeping, is ready to vote against Donald Trump
Washington Times :  ‎   Alicia Machado's weight gain 'was a real problem,' Donald Trump says

It may even be getting bigger play in Spanish-language media. Both Telemundo and Univision have around 5 separate articles about Machado on their sites from the last day.

Of all the moments in the debate, I think Machado (and his Fox and Friends this AM) along with his comment on 'being smart' to not pay taxes may be the two things that end up in Clinton TV commercials.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the first debate? on: September 26, 2016, 10:23:38 pm
Trump personally worked the spin room for a long time, not really a sign of confidence.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the first debate? on: September 26, 2016, 09:51:04 pm
FWIW PredictIt has Trump Down/Clinton up about 7 cents since the start of the debate.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hofstra University POTUS debate at 9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: September 26, 2016, 02:58:17 pm
A request from the mod team: As today is the big day of the debate and also as there are lots of new polls out, can we keep the new thread creation within the 2016 board to things that have new content/discussion and not flood the page with duplicative and/or low-effort threads please.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The idiot Trump supporters lies over Trump is nearly unprecedented. on: September 26, 2016, 02:44:54 pm
Locking thread for being just sniping
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPD announces 5 debate qualifying polls - UPDATE: Johnson average 7.4% on: September 26, 2016, 12:50:12 pm
Here is the last update before the first debate, now with the latest ABC poll.

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.6
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.6

They will probably send out the invites for the second debate this week. Friday would mark 10 days before the debate and for the first debate they announced 10 days before.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pre-debate speculation, prep reports, etc megathread on: September 25, 2016, 06:12:07 pm
Not that different from 2012. They have certainly done camera tests for any changes.

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pre-debate speculation, prep reports, etc megathread on: September 25, 2016, 06:04:23 pm
Quote
With regards to fact-checking, "Lester is not going to be a potted plant," one NBC staffer close to Holt said.

...

This doesn't mean Holt will interrupt every time he hears a lie. Officials at the Commission on Presidential Debates say the candidates should challenge each other.

But Holt will strive to avoid a repeat of NBC's "Commander in Chief Forum" earlier this month, when Trump falsely said he opposed the invasion of Iraq and interviewer Matt Lauer let it slide.   .

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/25/media/lester-holt-nbc-presidential-debate/index.html
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: September 25, 2016, 05:55:51 pm
From a Blog post from UofFlorida professor who runs the US Elections Project and is tracking early voting with the AP...
Quote
What Did We Learn This Week?
The Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina early voting statistics appear to confirm the polling averages, showing a Trump with a slight lead in Iowa, Maine splitting its Electoral College votes in the First and Second Congressional Districts, and Clinton running slightly ahead in North Carolina. Again, I can’t say this enough: these are the earliest early voters and this is a weak signal that will get stronger as Election Day approaches as the trickle of early voters becomes a flood.

Also of interest is that Clinton does better where voters appear to be more engaged, as measured by absentee ballot requests, and Trump does better where interest is running lower. This has important implications for polling, as Clinton does better among the universe of registered voters and less so among likely voters.

he has more data here...
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pre-debate speculation, prep reports, etc megathread on: September 25, 2016, 05:45:35 pm
some shots of the stage...



Students standing in for Trump and Clinton

22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders: 2016 is “not the time for a protest vote” on: September 25, 2016, 04:53:21 pm
I think the  key group they need to get to are first time voters. Polling has shown Clinton's biggest weakness vs. 3rd parties is with the youngest voters. They were too young to remember the Gore/Nader thing and really didn't pay attention to the Bush years.  These are people that probably were too young or didn't vote for Obama in 2008 or 2012 so their first time that they were politically active and interested was through Sanders and his 'revolution'.  Clinton is just seen as part of the 'system' that needs to be changed and another member of the evil corrupt elite 1%. 

And of course, part of the reason they believe that is because that was Sanders message for 12 months. Not sure how you turn that perception around by election day. Maybe Sanders needs to say he was just kidding.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Demographics and the Electorate on: September 25, 2016, 03:34:42 pm
excellent post and question. I think it is clear Trump will not do better than Romney with non-whites or with college-whites (and may even do worse) so he has to make up for the Obama-Romney deficit entirely with non-college whites. Which means the election comes down to how big is his margin with NCWs and well do they turn out vs. other groups. 

And once again this all comes down to how the pollsters weigh both their RV and their LV samples.  But invariably we see that polls with big samples of NCWs show Trump doing well and polls matching the 2012 electorate (or an even less white electorate) look good for Clinton. And of course there is the issue of the Latino vote and how non-Spanish language option polls treat them. 

On a recent podcast (cant remember which one) but Paul Begala talked about the campaign polls and Super PAC polls (like Priorities USA which he works for) are basically much better than media polls. Specifically he said the PUSA polls don't show the big fluctuations we have seen in media polls, and have a small but consistent lead for Clinton. 

Of course they could all be wrong and Trump may really change everything and huge numbers of NCWs show up vs CWs and NWs, and then he wins. That is a possibility, but that is the only way he wins.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Newspaper Endorsement Thread on: September 25, 2016, 03:19:58 pm
The WSJ doesn't do presidential endorsements (or at least not in recent years). Of the top 100 papers in the US there are 11 that endorsed the Republican in the last 3 elections. 

New York Post
The Dallas Morning News
The Arizona Republic (Phoenix)
The San Diego Union-Tribune
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (Little Rock)
Investor’s Business Daily (Los Angeles)
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The Columbus (OH) Dispatch
Omaha World-Herald

Of that list only 2 have endorsed so far this year and both endorsed Clinton (Dallas Morning News and Cincinnati Enquirer). Trump will probably get some endorsements from this list  (NYPost, Las Vegas Review Journal, Investors Business Daily, Omaha World-Herald and maybe a couple more)
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why hasn't Clinton Camp released ads on Johnson yet? on: September 25, 2016, 02:42:28 pm
actually in 1992 when Perot was doing significantly better than Johnson and even made it into the debates. 

If you look here ...
http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/1992/ 

The Clinton and Bush ads are either positive or against each other. 
 
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