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March 28, 2015, 11:06:24 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP hawks pressure Bush to dump James Baker as foreign policy advisor on: Today at 05:22:24 am
First Paul is criticized for not clapping enthusiastically enough in his presence, now Bush must purge himself of someone who was supposedly a respected elder statesman of the party. Did I miss something, or is Bibi Netanyahu the new head of the GOP?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Graham: global warming is real, but Al Gore politicized it on: March 27, 2015, 09:28:17 pm
So the premise is that if Gore didn't champion the case for climate change, the GOP would be totally on board? Seriously?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary and 2018 on: March 27, 2015, 08:58:35 pm
it could be that the dems lose any gains they make in 2016, but can't imagine it can get any worse than 2014.

No one thought that 2014 would be worse than 2010 (some were even predicting a Democratic gubernarial wave), and look what happened...

The seats held by the Dems was definitely worse after 2014 for House, Senate and Governors
Dem  House/Senate/Gov
2010   193   53   20   
2014   188   46   18

So as I noted, I suspect the Dems to make some gains in 2016, but they will likely lose ground in 2018, but there isn't much more space to get worse than 2014. It's possible, but for the Dems things are pretty bad now. So to the OP's point, I cant see it getting much worse really. I think the OP is forgetting that along with a Dem win for prez in 2016, they will also make gains in House, Senate and Govs, so they aren't starting from the 2014 low point.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary and 2018 on: March 27, 2015, 08:05:29 pm
it could be that the dems lose any gains they make in 2016, but can't imagine it can get any worse than 2014.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: March 27, 2015, 04:25:04 am
I bet MSNBC would air a debate with just 2 but I suspect in the end Hillary will end up with 3 challengers, maybe 4. In addition to Sanders and Webb there is O'Malley and maybe Robert Reich (who has hinted he may run if Warren doesn't). There could be others.

In May 2011 Fox aired a debate with 5 candidates (Cain, Johnson, Paul, Pawlenty and Santorum). 

So I'm just saying it is possible that the non-Hillarys may not sit around and wait for her, they may roll their own with friendly outlets. You can also probably count on local media to sponser (both TV and papers). THey may feel that if they build it, maybe Hillary will come.

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker (privately) flips back to path to citizenship. [Update: Denies it] on: March 26, 2015, 11:57:32 pm
Not surprised he would deny, he cant be seen changing his position twice in a matter of weeks. Wonder if anyone has recording (ala 47%). The WSJ isn't some sloppy blog.

This issue will be as important in 2016 as it was in 2012 if not bigger, both in GOP primary and in the general.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: March 26, 2015, 11:44:38 pm
Agree she can't refuse, but will limit them and wait.

What will be interesting to see is if the other candidates will end up debating without her. The first GOP debate in 2012 didn't have Romney (he had formed exploratory by that point but not full campaign).
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Walker (privately) flips back to path to citizenship. [Update: Denies it] on: March 26, 2015, 11:41:42 pm
From the WSJ
Quote
   Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker told a private dinner of New Hampshire Republicans this month that he backed the idea of allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in the country and to eventually become eligible for citizenship, a position at odds with his previous public statements on the matter.

    …

    Mr. Walker’s “no amnesty” position was itself a change from his prior decade long support for a pathway to citizenship. He has explained in public that his recent shift to a more restrictive view came after consulting with border-state governors and hearing from people opposed to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

    …

    Mr. Walker said undocumented immigrants shouldn’t be deported, and he mocked 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s suggestion that they would “self-deport,” according to people who were there

http://www.wsj.com/articles/walker-backs-path-to-citizenship-at-private-new-hampshire-dinner-1427390295

So is this a case of Walker talking 'no amnesty' in public (and especially in IA) but thinking that he can talk path to citizenship in private (in NH). It will be interesting to see how he responds. Will he deny it?

If this is his new (or renewed) position, it would actually put him to the left of Bush, who has moved from path to citizenship to 'legal status'.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Louie Gohmert: I might run for president on: March 26, 2015, 11:32:24 pm
Called it.
Quote
“Washington D.C. contains too many who do not recognize statements made with a figurative tongue in cheek, sometimes known as being ironic,” said an email from Gohmert’s office.

“To more completely describe his actual beliefs, Congressman Gohmert notes the Kennedy-Nixon debates created a line of demarcation beyond which television became the critical factor in being elected President which also meant there would be no more bald Presidents in his lifetime.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/26/louie-gohmert-presidentia_n_6952194.html
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Louie Gohmert: I might run for president on: March 26, 2015, 08:26:26 pm
Please be true. But if I had to guesses, I think he is trolling/joking.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Germanwings A320 crashes in France on: March 26, 2015, 07:12:14 am
Yeah, given the facts which are currently presented by the investigators at a press conference in Marseille, it looks as if this plane crash may have been the co-pilot's way of committing suicide.

FFS. This is not the first time a pilot has done this. It's not suicide, it is mass murder.

Many in the pilot community are now questioning the post 9/11 armored door policy. It keeps terrorists out but also keeps unhinged pilots in.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: For the Democrats, who are the most important endorsements to get? on: March 26, 2015, 12:13:51 am
Oprah

Also the media would jump all over any antiHillary endorsement from a Dem gov or Senator Simply to play up the horserace.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What qualifications does Julian Castro have? on: March 26, 2015, 12:08:21 am
If Democrats are hoping to retake the Senate, won't that severely limit any recruitment from Democratic Senators in states with Republican governors (IE: almost every state)?

While many Dem Senators are in states with GOP govs, I believe the majority are not, including those in battleground states of VA, NH, CO and PA.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What qualifications does Julian Castro have? on: March 25, 2015, 11:51:04 pm
What's with all this talk about him being a "super-duper-mega-amazing" VP candidate?

Straw man much? Who is saying that? I think the conventional wisdom has been how she would go with safe pick (some not extreme white male gov or Senator ideally from swing state)
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Saudi Arabia and GCC allies bombing Yemen on: March 25, 2015, 11:45:26 pm
Saudi Arabia is not messing around

Quote
Saudi Arabia is contributing 100 warplanes and 150,000 soldiers to the military operation in Yemen, al-Arabiya television reported on Thursday



http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-150-000-troops-yemen-operation-arabiya-041839905.html
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: For the Republicans, who are the most important endorsements to get? on: March 25, 2015, 10:57:43 pm
Endorsements make the biggest difference early on. So major figures in IA and NH like Bob Vander Platz or Kelly Ayotte are big and of course the major papers in NH and IA.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Senator Cruz: 9/11 caused me to like country music. on: March 25, 2015, 04:50:45 am
One has to wonder, in how many aspects of his life does he extend his pandering? Does he only eat conservative food? When he drives, does he refuse to make left turns? Is there anything he cant find a way to make polarizing and partisan?  I guess we will find out. It will be fun.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Republican Presidential Odds: Bush, Walker, and Rubio at the top on: March 25, 2015, 01:19:59 am
Its worth listening to the podcast. They do discuss Kasich and Pence and say that if either showed serious interest (and especially if others ran into trouble) they could become top tier.

We are getting closer and closer to the point where it is hard to discuss people who arent doing anything (or very little) in terms of setting up campaigns.  So the bias is towards those who are clearly running.

Yeah, I get that. But Pence has shown no interest in running and even shut down a bill allowing him to run for president and Governor simultaneously. Meanwhile, Kasich has been open about considering a run and touring the early primary states. If you're going to include one but not the other, it should be Kasich.

Also, if they're going to include Warren on the D side then they should include Romney on the R side.

As I said, in the podcast they talk about Pence and Kasich, don't get caught up on the graphic. They actually note how Kasich is in a category of his own if he runs.

As for Warren, they are mixing the candidates who are likely to be running running with the 'what if Hillary didnt run?' scenario candidates (which is where Warren comes in). I think, and they hint at this, it is just more interesting than saying..."and for the Dems, Hillary wins, discussion over"
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Republican Presidential Odds: Bush, Walker, and Rubio at the top on: March 25, 2015, 12:49:54 am
Its worth listening to the podcast. They do discuss Kasich and Pence and say that if either showed serious interest (and especially if others ran into trouble) they could become top tier.

We are getting closer and closer to the point where it is hard to discuss people who arent doing anything (or very little) in terms of setting up campaigns.  So the bias is towards those who are clearly running.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver gives Clinton 23% odds of losing the nomination on: March 25, 2015, 12:47:34 am
I actually listened to the podcast and to be clear Nate and the other guys were saying there is a chance she doesn't run or is 'forced out' due to some scandal, not that she 'loses' to one of the others. The theory goes that there are a series of new allegations along the lines of emailgate leading to her not running or dropping out. Short of that, she wins. While that scenario is certainly plausible, I think 23% is over-estimating it.

BTW, They all also noted their own internal bias for there to be an actual nomination fight.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 09:06:50 pm
Three polls last month (Marist, Bloomberg/St. Anselem, WMUR/UNH) had Hillary with leads around 10 or more. So either she has had a dramatic drop in NH (not seen in other states) or this poll is an outlier.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver gives Clinton 23% odds of losing the nomination on: March 24, 2015, 08:49:45 pm
I think that Warren is happy to be in the Senate. She wants to be the new Ted Kennedy, the 'liberal lioness' of the Senate. She has never done anything or said anything that indicates any kind of presidential ambition. I don't believe she will run even if (in the extremely unlikely event) Clinton doesn't run or drops out. If Clinton does drop out, others will have back up plans jump into motion like get in quickly.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Ted Cruz really want? on: March 24, 2015, 08:33:34 pm
With his ego, I suspect he thinks he can win the nomination, although being pragmatic he probably would recognize that he may not get it on his first try.

Also, at bare minimum he wants to remain relevant. For the next year, you get a bigger voice if you are a candidate. Anything he does in the Senate now has more attention.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz to get health insurance from Obamacare exchanges on: March 24, 2015, 07:36:06 pm
apparently he is refusing the subsidy so he cant be accused of being a 'taker'
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt on: March 23, 2015, 04:34:06 am
At first didn't like it but it gets better as the show goes on. A must see show for any fan of 30 ROCK or THE OFFICE
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