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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker's "anti-gay transition" on: Today at 12:51:02 am
I have always thought any moderate heroism on his part was an act. I read somewhere (cant find the link) that his first proposed bill as a freshman legislator was an anti-aboriton bill that was too extreme to ever even make it to the floor. The Vox article noted how he was an anti-abortion culture warrior going back to college.

So far he has got away with trying to have it both ways but I think once the campaign really starts he is going to have to reveal his true colors, otherwise he will look wishy washy and all over the place. But once he does that it is going to cost him appeal with the more moderate GOPers and it will cost him money. Of course he can also pick up support, peeling it away from Carson, Huckabee and others. So being the 'true conservative' can still be a winning formula for him.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker files with FEC; will make announcement on July 13th on: July 02, 2015, 06:26:16 pm
It may be a lawyer thing. There were people saying that Jeb Bush passed the point of being a candidate legally long before he actually announced based on this rule about passing the $5000 spent and/or received level.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 02, 2015, 01:03:40 am
In Q2 2011 Obama raised $47M (about the same as Clinton's Q2 2015). Obama's came from "more than 552,000 donors" with "98 percent of contributions to the campaign were below the $250 threshold." I would bet that the numbers for Hillary are similar.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump top tier/front-runner? on: July 01, 2015, 11:42:22 pm
You dont need to be a potential winner to be a 'front runner,' especially this year. My point on making this thread is that it seems Republican a good chunk of voters are taking him seriously. This isn't name recognition, he was polling in 9th place before he announced and they knew who he was then too. There is a nativist element that love him just like they loved Buchannan and others before him.

And the real world is taking him seriously, notably NBC, Univision, Macys and others.  Even the media is now starting to take him seriously. The question is, when will his fellow GOP candidates start to take him seriously?  

Cain may have been a joke but when he surged his fellow GOPers pounced, mocking his 999 plan (rightfully) and of course the media pounced (resulting in Uz beki beki beki stan, etc.).

I suspect it will be Chris Christie who goes after Trump but I still feel Bush is missing an opportunity.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 01, 2015, 11:35:07 pm
The Super PACs are going to be a bigger factor this time, especially on the GOP side. Bush has outsourced a lot of his campaign to his super pac
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/409837aa09ee405493ad64a94b8c2c3d/bush-preparing-delegate-many-campaign-tasks-super-pac

The reason he waited to get in was to spend the year raising money for the super pac
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Is Trump top tier/front-runner? on: July 01, 2015, 06:08:08 pm
Since he got into the race there have been nine polls conducted an in every single one of them Trump is at 10% or more and in most of them he is in 2nd place. So is he now in the top tier? (along with Bush and Walker and maybe Rubio if you still think he is in the top tier). Or is this just a short term flash that will quickly fade?

National Polls since Trump got in...
YouGov    11%  1st(tied)   
FOX   11%   2nd
CNN    12%   2nd

State Polls...
Quin-IA   10% 2nd(tied)   
Suff-NH   11%  2nd   
CNN-NH   11% 2nd   
PPP-KY   12% 3rd   
Farleigh-NJ   11% 3rd   
PPP-MI   14% 2nd(tied)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Univision dumps Miss USA pageant over Trump remarks; Trumps says he'll sue on: July 01, 2015, 05:42:30 pm
Today in Trump v Mexico....

Macy's Cuts Ties with Trump: 'No Tolerance for Discrimination'

Golf bodies (PGA, USGA, etc): Trump comments ‘do not reflect’ our views (released statement after he said they backed him up)

Trump doubles down on raping Mexicans comment to CNN 'well somebody is doing the raping'


Also Pataki has taken on Trump and implored his fellow candidates to do so also in an open letter. And of course Trump responded by saying Pataki 'couldnt be elected dogcatcher'

8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tennessee Hardware Store puts up "no gays allowed" sign on: July 01, 2015, 05:28:07 pm
It's kind of amazing that gays can get married in all 50 states but in over half of them they still can be discriminated against for service, housing, and jobs.  I suspect that within a few years they will have the same protections afforded by gender, race, religion and disability.

Of course as I have noted before, I still find it ironic that religious people are protected under the law when religion is clearly a choice, but LGBT aren't.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 01, 2015, 05:12:13 pm
UPDATE: with new CNN poll

For third update in a row Trump jumps up a spot, this time passing Cruz.

After updating this for a month, so far not a single candidate has moved in or out of the top 10. The only change in qualification is Pataki has dropped out of qualifying for the 'Forum' and Jindal now as broken the 1% threshold to get in

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   15.0
2   Walker*   10.6
3   Rubio   9.4
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.0
6   Paul   8.0
7   Trump   6.0 ↑
8   Cruz   4.8 ↓
9   Christie   3.8
10   Perry   3.4

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.8
12   Fiorina   2.0
13   Kasich*   2.0
14   Graham   1.2
15   Jindal   1.0 ↑

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

16   Pataki   0.4 ↓


* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In hindsight on: July 01, 2015, 04:58:22 pm
For the record, Hillary has stated her vote was a mistake. Firstly in her 2014 book 'Hard Choices' and also this year on the campaign trail.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/05/hillary-clinton-on-iraq-vote-i-still-got-it-wrong-plain-and-simple/

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/hillary-clinton-iraq-war-vote-mistake-iowa-118109.html
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads Bush/Christie/Rubio/Trump/Walker by >10 pts on: July 01, 2015, 04:54:52 pm
It is hard to buy those numbers. Looking at the internals the RV and AA numbers are almost the same and in some cases exactly the same. That shouldn't be the case, especially this early.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Demoracy Corps: Clinton leads Rubio and Walker on: July 01, 2015, 04:51:07 pm
The topline GE number in this poll isn't the point. In a way Democracy Corps polls are like the Rove polls in that they have a different agenda than regular polls. In this case it isn't fundraising but message testing. All those questions about different policy positions is the point of the poll, and in this case testing with the oversample groups. DC is trying to shape the debate for Dem candidates. A lot of this is for downballot candidates to know what kind of messaging works and what doesn't and where are the landmines from the GOP.

The Hillary v Bush, etc numbers are sideshows.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC nat.: D: Clinton 58% Biden 17%; R: Bush 17% Trump 12% Carson 8% Paul 8% on: July 01, 2015, 04:48:07 pm
Bush and Trump are getting impressive bounces, which seem to be hurting Rubio, Walker and Huckabee when you look at the last CNN poll.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Quinnipiac: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10% Cruz 9% Paul 9% Bush 8% Rubio 7% on: July 01, 2015, 04:46:04 pm
Walker's sustained front-runner status in IA for someone who is undeclared and hasnt really taken that many trips to the state is impressive. That being said he is from a border state and people in the NW of IA probably are exposed to a lot of local WI TV.

Cruz at 9% probably because he has been making a ton of noise on the marriage ruling and King v. Burwell.

Well compared to Quinni's last IA poll Cruz is actually down a few points, although that was done not long after his announcement. THis may be a bit of a bounce back for Ted.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Peter King won't run for prez on: July 01, 2015, 04:40:35 pm
I was looking forward to some King vs. Paul fights, but I think Graham can suffice.

King was never getting onto a debate stage with Paul, and I would bet Graham never will either. Your best bet for someone to go after Paul is Christie. There is no love lost there.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Governor LePage endorses Christie on: July 01, 2015, 04:38:39 pm
This is just another example of how diminished he is. Christie ran the RGA in 2014, which was all part of his master plan to become prez. He helped 24 current GOP governors get or keep their jobs.  You would imagine that Plan A was to have some high profile govs endorse him. Wouldn't you want your first one to be a big name? Of the 24 you have early state govs Terry Brandstad of IA and Nikki Haley of SC. You got Greg Abbot of TX (to maybe peel off some Cruz and Perry support). You got Sandoval and Martinez to show diversity. Maybe a Mary Falin to show base support. The list goes on. And the best he can come up with is LePage? The guy is a nutcase who may get impeached. Pathetic.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Bush survive losing both IA and NH to different candidates? on: July 01, 2015, 04:31:42 pm
In the modern era, no GOP candidate has ever won the nomination without winning either IA or NH so precedent would say no, but I voted yes because this season is so different with the number of candidates and the power of Super PACs and unlimited money.  However if he doesn't win either IA or NH, he better have been close in one or both and he would have to win SC or I think it is over for him. The only way he survives going 0-3 is if the winners of IA, NH and SC were all unacceptable to the mainstream.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie announces presidential candidacy on: June 30, 2015, 11:45:17 pm
Christie just came off a run as head of the RGA and his big first (and maybe only) governor endorsement is Paul LePage, the guy who just had his budget veto overridden and there are calls for his impeachment?

To think that four years ago party bigwigs and megadonors were literally begging Christie to run for prez
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker's up for getting rid of filibuster, in order to repeal Obamacare on: June 30, 2015, 07:42:50 pm
Jeb Bush has also signed on for 'the nuclear option'
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-26/nuclear-2-0-jeb-bush-is-open-to-ending-the-senate-filibuster-to-repeal-obamacare

But this is all just pandering to those going through the stages of grief over hopes they would end Obamacare. By 2017 at least 10% of the country will be directly covered by Obamacare (kids on parents plans, expanded Medicaid and via exchanges). There is not replacement plan that will keep all those people covered without including the things GOPers say they hate (taxes and mandates). And they arent just going to kick 30 million off coverage. Plus there are tens of millions who are now protected against losing insurance over pre-existing condition and lifetime caps. It's over. Time for GOPers to move on to 'reform' not 'replace,' as noted by David Frum. ANd of course Walker and Bush know all that but they are in the pandering season.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 07:35:02 pm
Obviously California is out of reach, but even improving among Hispanics a couple points would shore up Georgia and Arizona while helping out in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, etc. So, in terms of strategy, Jeb is 100% right, the GOP needs more hispanic voters.

Agree that appealing more to Latinos is important for the GOP and helps them with many of the states in the 2012 battlegrounds that Romney targeted. I just don't see how it expands beyond that list (besides the aforementioned possible return to New Mexico). To really 'expand the map' the GOP needs to look to all elements of the so-called 'Rising American Electorate' (unmarried women, African Americans, Latinos, other people of color and millennials). If they can do that, then maybe some more states come into play like Minnesota, Michigan, Oregon. And of course Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (which were on the 2012 list) become more realistic targets.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does a candidates attractiveness matter? on: June 30, 2015, 07:14:45 pm
Of course it does, however it isn't as simple as traditional good looks. It's one of those things that you know it when you see it. Some combination of looks, charisma and gravitas. Some have it and some don't.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: June 30, 2015, 06:32:19 pm
I think it is fair to say that the next president of the United States has announced (or has a pending announcement). The few stragglers remaining on the GOP side will never see a debate stage and will likely drop out before IA (if they ever get in). As for Webb, he could possibly get into some debates but not sure where he fits in to 2016's Democratic party. He and Chafee can fight over the handful of Dems primary voters who think Hillary is too much of a liberal.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Univision dumps Miss USA pageant over Trump remarks; Trumps says he'll sue on: June 30, 2015, 06:20:07 pm
Things continue to escalate in what has essentially become all out war between Trump and Mexico. Today's skirmishes:
Mexico pulls out of Trump's Miss Universe pageant

Carlos Slim's Ora TV Severs Ties With Donald Trump, Calling His Remarks About Immigrants "Racist"

Donald Trump Hits Univision With $500M Miss USA Lawsuit, Network Calls It “Ridiculous”


...and yet the GOP field continues to remain mum over Trump. Although that may not last for long. Strangely it was FOX and FRIENDS that broached the subject with Ted Cruz, who said Trump was 'terrific' and he shouldn't apologize for his Mexican comments
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does it make sense for Christie to skip Iowa and focus on NH? on: June 30, 2015, 05:59:03 pm
The trick is to compete just a bit in Iowa but still set expectations low. In a field that may still have a dozen or more by Iowa, you can't afford to be close to last place. People say McCain didn't compete in Iowa in 2008 but he did a bit and he still came in a respectable 4th place with 13% as opposed to Rudy Giuliani who was 6th with 3%. I would say the guys hoping for a win in NH (Bush, Christie, Kasich) need to still get in to the top 5 in IA
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush releases 33 yrs of tax returns; says "email me directly" with questions on: June 30, 2015, 05:52:47 pm
Bush is doing a good job of being the 'transparency guy', contrasting himself with both Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton.

Also nice timing on the day of Christie's announcement. That wasn't a coincidence.
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