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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What were Carson and Trump doing before the beginning of the debate? on: February 07, 2016, 04:41:52 am
It appears Carson didn't hear his name or perhaps didn't understand the procedure. Remember at one point during the debate he said "you know, when I wasn’t introduced No. 2, as was the plan, I thought maybe he thought I already had dropped out."...but he actually was introduced second, following Chris Christie.  Perhaps the cheers for Christie drowned out the sound of the moderator and he simply couldn't hear his name.   As for why Trump stood next to him, maybe he was just being nice?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 04:19:01 am
WMUR focus group liked Bush and Kasich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdvzqmt9iPc

not impressed with Rubio and Trump
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won in Christie vs Rubio tonight? on: February 06, 2016, 11:01:33 pm
Kasich.   Just like how Kerry won the fighting between Dean and Gephardt in 2004
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Rubio been definitively exposed as a lightweight? on: February 06, 2016, 10:52:40 pm
Just as much as his 'momentum' was a product of the pundits, his pummeling at this debate will also get played big by the media
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who lost the ABC debate? on: February 06, 2016, 10:51:19 pm
Obviously Rubio got hammered. But Carson continues to be weak and he is already on life support and cant see that he can make it past SC.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the ABC debate? on: February 06, 2016, 10:49:02 pm
I think Kasich did well for the NH crowd. I suspect he will get a bump. Not enough to get past Trump, who held his ground, but enough to get past Cruz and possibly even Rubio who got savaged by Christie.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Boston/Globe Suffolk University Poll on: February 05, 2016, 02:22:30 pm
The polls are kind of all over the place on Bernie's lead (this week polls have shown +9 to +31). Hard to see what the media will set as the 'expectation' for Hillary to beat. I suspect anything less than 10 points will be spun generally positively for Hillary, anything over 20 will be spun as bad for Hillary. Hard to say what happens in between.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb goes full Dubya on: February 05, 2016, 12:33:34 pm
well technically that is Jeb's Super PAC and his campaign cannot have coordinated that.  Although I find it hard to believe that they would put W into an ad without getting the OK from Jeb (secretly, of course).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney considers endorsing Rubio before NH primary to stop Trump's momentum on: February 05, 2016, 12:26:27 pm
I have long suspected that he was going to do this, in fact I made a poll about it a while back:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225741.0

I think it would be a BFD. I have always thought that NH is where you stop Trump and the way to do that is to consolidate the so-called establishment wing and Romney's endorsement could start that bandwagon effect.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Iowa caucus at risk of losing first spot? on: February 05, 2016, 12:17:40 pm
The last two cycles have shown that the caucus system (at least in Iowa) in both parties is not designed for close races. In 2012 on the GOP side you actually had the wrong person declared winner only to be reversed a couple weeks later (perhaps too late for it to matter). And it is possible the same thing could happen on the Dem side for this year (there will at least be lingering doubts for some about the results).

And of course there is the issue (especially on the Dem side) that Iowa is not reflective of the party as a whole.

So, in 2020 at least one of the parties will have a competitive nomination contest and by 2024 at least the other will. So is Iowa's position in doubt?  Can a caucus in this state continue to have such an important role in the winnowing process? And if not, what would be better? And how would that be achieved? Could both parties agree to something different? Could we end up with different first contests? Could there be disagreements and states leapfrogging eachother to be first (possibly with national parties penalizing them).

This cycle the setting of the calendar was rather organized and peaceful. My bet is that for the next cycle it is not going to be. A lot of states are going to argue that Iowa has screwed up on both sides and lost its right to go first.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: New Hampshire-Gravis Marketing Rubio Surging, Sanders Dominating on: February 05, 2016, 11:56:29 am
I know, just being pedantic for fun
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: New Hampshire-Gravis Marketing Rubio Surging, Sanders Dominating on: February 05, 2016, 11:50:24 am
New Hampshire
GOP Primary
Trump 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 15%
Kasich 13%



So Kasich is in 2nd place with 28%?   
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Washington State with B.C. parties on: February 05, 2016, 03:09:55 am
This topic has been moved to Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228363.0
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: MSNBC Durham, NH Democratic debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 04, 2016, 10:50:19 pm
Hillary seemed very genuinely emotionally moved in delivering her response on Flint.

It's possible she has actual human emotions.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: MSNBC Durham, NH Democratic debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 04, 2016, 10:28:29 pm
Sanders is right that Dems win with large voter turnout, but a lot of that is with non-white turnout and his campaign has yet to show enthusiasm among non-whites.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC February 6 Republican Debate Criteria on: February 04, 2016, 07:22:00 pm
ABC makes it official, no Carly. Looks like they are using national polls to determine podium position.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-announces-hampshire-republican-debate-candidate-lineup/story?id=36721505
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC February 6 Republican Debate Criteria. on: February 04, 2016, 11:27:01 am
I did quick averages using only live phone polls...

USA
1   Trump   35.22
2   Cruz   19.44
3   Rubio   10.89
4   Carson   8.22
5   Bush   4.78
6   Christie   3.22
----------------------
7   Kasich   2.33
8   Fiorina   2.22
9   Gilmore   0.11
      
NH
1   Trump   31.88
2   Cruz   11.82
3   Rubio   11.47
4   Kasich   11.35
5   Bush   8.35
6   Christie   7.41
----------------------
7   Fiorina   3.59
8   Carson   3.29
9   Gilmore   0.00

So basically everyone but Fiorina and Gilmore qualifies. There really is no reasonable poll selection to they could do to put Fiorina in unless they changed their criteria.  Perhaps a reasonable criteria instead of 'top 3' in IA would be 'won a delegate or more in IA'...with that she would qualify. Christie would not but he is still in top 6 in US and NH polling.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:47:27 pm
Hillary should say she doesn't want her super PAC to do anything during the primary and that she only wants their support for a potential general election to counter GOP supper PACs, again Obama had one too.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:32:56 pm
If you were a tree would you make a sound if one leaf clapped?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:25:47 pm
Clinton should pivot this bit on right wing attacks to explain why she has a super PAC, just like Obama did.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:22:58 pm
I didn't agree 100% with her last answer, but I appreciate her authenticity.

The US has many treaty obligations and it would be disingenuous and a dangerous message to allies to say she could never use troops in her term. sh**t happens. 
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump accuses Cruz of cheating in IA megathread on: February 03, 2016, 07:32:30 pm
I merged all the threads on this topic
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump's temper tantrum about the Iowa results help or hurt him? on: February 03, 2016, 02:23:31 pm
It does smack of sore loser, but I think he realizes that Carson is going to drop out sometime this month and he is trying to drive a wedge between Carson's supporters and Cruz, and between Carson himself and Cruz.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC February 6 Republican Debate Criteria. on: February 02, 2016, 05:14:09 pm
Well Paul and Fiorina are out on average of all polls and live phone polls.   
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC February 6 Republican Debate Criteria. on: February 02, 2016, 04:59:03 pm
I assume it means polls like their own, or live phone (landline and mobile).
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