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July 01, 2016, 10:28:31 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Team Clinton Spent $26M on Battleground Ads in June. Trump Spent $0 on: June 30, 2016, 08:58:19 pm
Just saw my first Hillary ad on TV. I've seen Sanders ads and some from pro-Trump super pacs, but never one for Hillary.

She's advertising in Washington? Huh

I believe Clinton is doing some national cable advertising on top of the state by state advertising, which is directed at local TV. That is typical. The national spend is usually pretty small.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Trump actually believe that he can win California and New York? on: June 30, 2016, 07:35:39 pm
When he was in California he told a room full of Republicans he was going to compete in California, because that is what they want to hear.  And he likes to talk about winning New York because of his ego and maybe he knows that history isn't full of guys who lost their home state but won the presidency (I believe Woodrow Wilson is the last to pull that off). 

Certainly as they are doing fundraising pitches, I seriously doubt his team are telling donors they are going to spend millions in NY and CA as that is a fast way to get them to suddenly not be able to find their check books.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: June 30, 2016, 06:21:34 pm
web video from AFL CIO going after Trump and trade

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TZBgrLnSe0
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Castro, Kaine, and Warren asked to submit info on: June 30, 2016, 05:13:00 pm
Add Mike Pence's name to the pile for Trump...
Quote
Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is "in play" as a possible contender to be named Donald Trump's running mate at next month's GOP convention, sources familiar with the vice presidential search tell NBC News.

An individual knowledgeable of conversations about the decision tells NBC News that Pence was made aware several weeks ago through an intermediary that he was being considered for the VP slot.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/indiana-s-mike-pence-play-possible-trump-vp-pick-n601951
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump: crowds are massive...why am I not doing better in the polls?’ on: June 30, 2016, 04:24:29 pm
Here is Trump's latest missive on the polls...
Quote
Donald Trump's standing in the polls has taken a hit in recent weeks, and if his comments Thursday to radio host Mike Gallagher are any indication, he does not have a firm answer as to why....
“Well, you know, I really feel it, Mike. I go to Ohio, we were there two days ago, and Pennsylvania and near Pittsburgh and we — I was in West Virginia, the crowds are massive. And you know, I walked out of one, and I said, ‘I don’t see how I’m not leading,'" Trump said, invoking the size of his crowds.

"We have thousands of people standing outside trying to get in, and they’re great people and they have such spirit for the country and love for the country, and I’m saying, you know, ‘Why am I not doing better in the polls?’

He then goes on to blame the media
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Mexican planes could be attacking New Hampshire on: June 30, 2016, 03:47:19 pm
I would say standing in front of the wall of garbage earlier this week produced more mockery...
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trailguide-updates-twitter-loses-it-over-trump-s-speech-in-1467141128-htmlstory.html

, but maybe the Mexican Plan thing will ramp up.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump forgives his own loans to campaign - UPDATE: Trump hasnt done it yet on: June 30, 2016, 03:45:03 pm
UPDATE: Trump still hasn't converted the loans

Quote
Last week, campaign spokesperson Hope Hicks said Trump was submitting formal paperwork forgiving the loan on Thursday, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Reached by NBC this week, she said the paperwork "will be filed with the next regularly scheduled FEC report," and declined to provide any documentation.

The delay could matter, because until Trump formally forgives the loans, he maintains the legal option to use new donations to reimburse himself. (He can do so until August, under federal law.)

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/after-saying-he-forgave-loans-campaign-trump-won-t-release-n601596
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / NRA starts running ads for Trump - go Benghazi, not guns on: June 30, 2016, 02:55:52 pm
The NRA to the rescue!
Quote
The National Rifle Association’s political arm is launching its first ad campaign of the 2016 presidential race, with a survivor of the terror attack in Benghazi urging viewers to vote for Donald Trump.

The ad, which the NRA Political Victory Fund is backing with more than $2 million, is one of the larger expenditures by an outside group on behalf of the presumptive Republican nominee.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/29/nra-2-million-ad-campaign-trump-benghazi/86484306/

Here is the ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIl20jItjHY


Some interesting points
1. Other big GOP groups that backed Romney (like Americans for Prosperity and American Crossroads)  still not spending
2. The message of the ad seems to be focusing on uniting Republicans (starts out with saying "A lot of people say they’re not going to vote this November because their candidate didn’t win")
3. Even though it comes from the NRA, they use Benghazi instead of guns to go after Clinton

Side note, ABC is reporting that the ad violates rules on filming at national cemeteries
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA- Gravis Marketing Gives Mixed Results on: June 30, 2016, 01:36:00 pm
There are 3 pollsters still using IVR/robo dialing phone polls, Gravis, Rasmussen and PPP.  All 3 seem to show a bit of a Trump bias so far. If you average their polls the race is tied but if you look at just Internet or just live phone polls the race is around Clinton +5 to+6.  So maybe we are dealing more with a methodology thing here. 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: If Hillary Clinton wins, will she only serve for one term? on: June 30, 2016, 01:07:24 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239886.0
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver predicts Clinton will win on: June 30, 2016, 12:38:28 pm
Perhaps Clinton going after NE-2 is their backup plan in case Trump wins ME-2. That would be pretty crazy outcome withe the race coming down to NE and ME and their weird rules.  You can bet the NE legislature would be kicking themselves for not going through with the idea of switching to WTA.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Castro, Kaine, and Warren asked to submit info on: June 30, 2016, 12:27:33 pm
I suspect Christie is a fallback in case he can't get his preferred choice.  That being said,according to GAME CHANGE: DOUBLE DOWN, Romney's vet of Christie unearthed some skeletons. His history as a wall St lobbyest, including working for Bernie Maddoff was a big concern.  And that was all before Bridgegate.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver predicts Clinton will win on: June 30, 2016, 12:14:03 pm
If you sort the states by Trump's %chance to win, then NH is actually the tipping point at 32.8% vs 27.6% for VA. 

So Trump's narrow path ( sorted by % chance to win) is Romney + OH + CO + IA + FL + NH
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: God help me, I almost respect Mike Lee on: June 30, 2016, 12:03:04 pm
I had thought that the reasons Mormons hated Trump was that he was a thrice married vulgarian and his fued with Romney. But this points out that unlike other conservative Christians, when Mormons hear someone talking about banning Muslims and monitoring their houses of worship, some Mormans think "are we next?"
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen National Poll: Trump +4 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? on: June 30, 2016, 11:54:14 am
IIRC, in 2012 Ras was the only pollster that actively "unskewed" by reweighing based on their LV model assumptions of party identification. Are they still doing that, and if so, what is their assumption?

Also, are they still purely landline IVR?   Polling only landlines and no nonEnglish option could explain Trump leading "other minorities" (in addition to small sample)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton 42% Trump 40% on: June 29, 2016, 05:49:47 pm
FWIW Trump actually tweeted about this poll...
Quote
@realDonaldTrump 

New Q poll out- we are going to win the whole deal- and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
#Trump2016


He has now tweeted only two polls in the last month (the other being Gravis showing him down 2).  So Trump has picked his favorite pollsters for the General.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: If Any of the Discussed Senate VP Picks Becomes VP, Who Is Their Replacement? on: June 29, 2016, 02:51:28 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239816.0
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is this the Trumpster's dumbest phrase ever? on: June 29, 2016, 02:38:22 pm
This is obviously Trump's way of talking about reverse racism and political correctness. Among his base, reverse racism is seen as a big deal.

Newsweek today talked about a new poll...
Quote
Sixty-six percent of working-class whites, but only 43 percent of college-educated whites, say that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities.

http://www.newsweek.com/new-data-why-white-working-class-voters-back-trump-475447
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight launches full blown 2016 election forecast on: June 29, 2016, 01:41:42 pm
Other than AZ, it looks ok ...

I'd give AZ to Trump in a close race, because the state's laws that will block Latinos from voting.

well if you look at the polls plus version, the model gives AZ and NC to Trump. So the 'projection' is that 2016 would be exactly the same as 2012 from an EV point of view. However, currently the model has Clinton ahead in AZ and NC with polls only and 'now-cast'
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump has become born-again on: June 29, 2016, 01:35:27 pm
The guy who started all this (James Dobson) is now walking it back. Apparently he was basing it on info he 'heard' and not even from the Donald himself...
Quote
"Only the Lord knows the condition of a person's heart. I can only tell you what I've heard. First, Trump appears to be tender to things of the Spirit. I also hear that Paula White has known Trump for years and that she personally led him to Christ.

"Do I know that for sure? No. Do I know the details of that alleged conversion? I can't say that I do.

http://www.charismanews.com/politics/elections/58066-after-donald-trump-s-salvation-dr-james-dobson-reminds-how-to-deal-with-baby-christians

BTW, Paula White is one of those 'prosperity preachers' who seem to be the bulk of the evangelical leaders who have come out in favor of Trump. Time did a piece on Trump and his links to the prosperity Gospel preachers, including this...
Quote
[Trump] became friends with televangelist Paula White, senior pastor of New Destiny Christian Center in Florida. ...
Theologically, the belief that God wants people to be rich is controversial. Prosperity preachers often interpret Jesus’ teachings about abundant life in Christ financially, and that has earned them a bad name in many evangelical circles. White says her message is not “all about the money,” but a holistic gospel message of “well-being and opportunity,” which also addresses suffering. “How can you create jobs for people who want to work?” she says. “If you want to call that prosperity, yes, I believe in prosperity.”
http://time.com/donald-trump-prosperity-preachers/
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What are Trump's 16 target battleground states? on: June 29, 2016, 12:23:45 pm
On MTP over the weekend Trump's campaign manager Manafort said....
Quote
Our campaign frankly is getting organized. It's all in words I guess, but we are fully now integrated with the Republican National Committee. This week we'll be making some major announcements of people who are taking over in major positions in our national campaign as well as in our state campaigns.

We're organized in all 16 states that we're going to be targeting as battleground states. We'll be making those announcements this week.

Probably he will be targeting the same main 10 that Romney did (FL, OH, VA, CO, NV, IA, NH, WI, PA, NC).  If so, what would be the other 6? He has thrown around comments about states like CA and NY, but are they really going to contest those? Also is there any chance they are going to go on defense in any states like GA and AZ (WaPo reported there is almost no staff in AZ and the guy in charge currently is based out of NV).

Presumably, if this announcement comes this week, we will see where they are actually staffing up. So any guesses at the final list of 16?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nobody wants to speak at Trump's convention on: June 28, 2016, 01:49:14 pm
It looks like not a single Republican senator in a competitive race will be there with the possible exception of Rubio, who won't speak for Trump
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI on: June 28, 2016, 12:57:55 pm
Serious question: is there a way to know which polls PPP does have an online component and which ones are IVR landline only?  When they added the online component in 2014 they said it was an option for clients to choose and it cost extra. Did UFC pay extra?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump has become born-again on: June 28, 2016, 12:28:22 pm
Why would he say this if it wasn't true at this point? He has no  motive to pander to evangelicals anymore. He already won the GOP nomination.

Well we don't know what he said, we just know this is what James Doddson interpreted from talking to Trump.  No other evangelicals who were at that meeting have said this.  Maybe Trump revealed a profound spiritual awakening to Doddson, and he has truly accepted Jesus Christ as his personal Lord and Savior and will now dedicate his life to the glory of God.   Or maybe just maybe Trump tried to fit in and Doddson heard what he wanted to hear. 
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's donations to charity aren't as big as he says they are (WaPo) on: June 28, 2016, 12:19:52 pm
If Admiral Ackbar were on Trump's campaign he would tell him to not comment. Otherwise it will only spark another news cycle of the press hounding him on his tax returns, which could easily prove his claims of charitable giving
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