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27151  General Discussion / History / Re: Which party would have had a majority in the house in 1861 if... on: December 23, 2007, 09:12:16 am
The GOP would still hold the majority, 116-102.

Thank you.

My memory was that it would have been close.

It would have; there were also a large number of third party people, including quite a few Independent Democrats, so I think the Democrats would have had a majority, but I'm not sure.

My recollection (this is from about twenty years ago) is that with the "others" the Democrats would have had a razor thin control of the house and control of the senate.

An professor of American history had suggested that Lincoln deliberately provoked sucession of the outer south states to gain control of congress.

You're probably right on the matter of the "others" giving the Democrats the majority, but who was the professor who said that about Lincoln?
27152  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Arkansas for Huckabee or Hillary? on: December 22, 2007, 11:42:11 pm
Here is Hillary v. Huckabee in the South:
Virginia: Hillary 51-49
Tennessee: Huckabee 52-48
North Carolina: Huckabee 52-48
South Carolina: Huckabee 61-39
Georgia: Huckabee 58-42

Florida: Hillary 51-49
Alabama: Huckabee 60-40
Mississippi: Huckabee 56-44
Arkansas: Huckabee 49-48
Louisiana: Huckabee 58-42
Texas: Huckabee 61-39
27153  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? on: December 22, 2007, 11:36:58 pm
"Little Pink Houses" John Mellencamp
27154  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Edwards/Feingold v. Huckabee/Ridge on: December 22, 2007, 11:32:38 pm
Giuliani would never pick Romney.  I'm not going to go through the reasons.  life is too short and I've got a 1 in 6 shot at lung cancer as we stand right now.  but I don't think Edwards would do too well in the south because of two things - he's running as very left-wing, which is a different persona than won the 98 senate race, so the native son argument doesn't work as JE version 2007 would have pulled max 45% against Faircloth.  the other is a bigger and more quantifiable reason.  blacks don't like Edwards, at all, for whatever reason.  Kerry raped Edwards amoung negroes in 2004 (look at the GA primary map, then look at a GA demographic map...) and he's got absolutely no black support this time around.  no, they aren't going to vote for Rudy, that's not what I'm saying.  but in order to win in the south the Dem has to maximize black turnout and Edwards is hardly the guy to do that.

My main possibility of him winning is that he selects another Southernor as his running mate, or a minority like Richardson or Obama or Napolitano.
27155  General Discussion / History / Re: Which party would have had a majority in the house in 1861 if... on: December 22, 2007, 11:25:15 pm
The GOP would still hold the majority, 116-102.

Thank you.

My memory was that it would have been close.

It would have; there were also a large number of third party people, including quite a few Independent Democrats, so I think the Democrats would have had a majority, but I'm not sure.
27156  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Prepared for the invasion? on: December 22, 2007, 11:23:04 pm
Sorry if I've missed something, but what exactly is going on?
27157  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Edwards/Feingold v. Huckabee/Ridge on: December 22, 2007, 11:19:40 pm
Edwards wouldn't win a southern state against anybody anyway.  except for VA, if that qualifies.

Virginia does indeed count as a Southern state.  Second of all, I could see Edwards winning AR, TN, NC, and FL under the right circumstances, with the right VP against the right candidate.

illustrate for me those circumstances.  Romney and Abe Lincoln against Edwards and Robert E Lee comes to mind, but that's unlikely for a handful of reasons.

If the tickets were Edwards/Bredesen v. Giuliani/Romney, it could happen.  I think a ticket with Richardson on it is likely to bring in Florida, and Webb or Kaine could go a long way to bringing in Virginia.  Arkansas leans Democratic except against Huckabee, and Tennessee is a nice swing state, although it leans GOP.  North Carolina has to be at least considered with its native son at the top of the ticket.
27158  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Post Castro Cuba on: December 22, 2007, 11:15:56 pm
Raul will take over, and everything will continue as is, pretty much. I hope for democracy, but you can't always get what you want.

...but if you try sometimes, you might find,
you get what you need.


(sorry...I felt compelled)

Right on!
27159  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Edwards/Feingold v. Huckabee/Ridge on: December 22, 2007, 11:14:34 pm
Edwards wouldn't win a southern state against anybody anyway.  except for VA, if that qualifies.

Virginia does indeed count as a Southern state.  Second of all, I could see Edwards winning AR, TN, NC, and FL under the right circumstances, with the right VP against the right candidate.
27160  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Realistic scenario for Paul: beating Thompson on: December 22, 2007, 11:12:57 pm
I don't think he beats out McCain.  His best is finishing 5th, behind Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani.
27161  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: VP for Republicans on: December 22, 2007, 10:43:30 pm
Tom Ridge
27162  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: V-P for Democrats on: December 22, 2007, 10:42:48 pm
Easely

It's "Easley". I'm sick of that spelling error.

You're right, my bad :p  I usually spell his name right, he is my favorite VP choice.
27163  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What's the last movie you've seen? on: December 22, 2007, 10:31:57 pm
Shrek 3
27164  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many accounts have ignored you? on: December 22, 2007, 10:29:05 pm
I've jumped from 4 to 6 in the last couple of hours, and now I'm down to 5.
27165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968-Smathers/Kennedy v. Nixon/Agnew v. Wallace/LeMay on: December 22, 2007, 10:19:11 pm
I feel like I am being too generous to Smathers:


Wallace would have the same EV's in RL so add Georgia, Arkansas and probably South Carolina.

My line of thinking is that Smathers, who was a southern Democrat, would do much better than Humphrey did.
27166  General Discussion / History / Re: Which party would have had a majority in the house in 1861 if... on: December 22, 2007, 10:15:22 pm
The GOP would still hold the majority, 116-102.
27167  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? on: December 22, 2007, 10:12:43 pm
"1234" Feist
27168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / 1968-Smathers/Kennedy v. Nixon/Agnew v. Wallace/LeMay on: December 22, 2007, 10:11:26 pm
I feel like I am being too generous to Smathers:
27169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Obama '10? on: December 22, 2007, 10:03:53 pm
I don't think 6 years as governor vs. 6 more years as a Senator would make much difference.  Plus remaining in the Senate keeps the national spotlight more focused on him and if Democrats continue to remain in charge he could end up with significant power there as the remaining GI Generation Senators retire or die and new Gen X Senators are ushered in.

6 years as Governor gives him a lot of executive experience.  That way, he will have a great argument in terms of experience.
27170  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Rockefeller Republican vs. Hashemite on: December 22, 2007, 10:00:13 pm
Rocky/Rocky
27171  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How will things look in 2012? on: December 22, 2007, 09:56:53 pm
I'd give NC another EV or so. it's growing very rapidly.

I came up with these totals based on an estimate by the National Journal 2007 Political Atlas.  I would agree that Nevada may gain 2 seats, but I just followed the book on this one.

I had a detailed analysis a year ago directly from the census estimates projected to 4/1/2010. I would differ from your map as follows: +1 to CA, no change to NJ, OR, WA. In case, stay tuned for a new projection next week when the Census releases estimates from 7/1/2007.

I can't access the link Sad
27172  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What would you get the previous poster for Christmas? on: December 22, 2007, 09:56:23 pm
Star Wars Box Set
27173  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: V-P for Democrats on: December 22, 2007, 09:55:19 pm
Yeah, his run for senate has perplexed me. Were I Warner, I probably would have just endorsed and accepted the #2 slot to Hillary Clinton, and, if re-elected, made a run for the Presidency in 2016. His decision to run for senate kinda makes me believe he doesn't really want to be President.

How many terms can he last in the senate untill he becomes vulnerable for re-election, assuming the Republicans don't stay in the dumps? I mean, he was a sucessful governor, but with two Democratic senators Virginia is not exactly reppresented properly.

I don't see Warner ever being particularly vulnerable; he fits the state very well.  I only see him losing if there is a Republican tide, or if a very popular Republican comes along later on to challenge him.
27174  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Edwards/Feingold v. Huckabee/Ridge on: December 22, 2007, 09:53:52 pm


What is your problem Warner for Senate `08? Can`t you accept that Mike Huckabee could win an election?

First of all, Gporter, I would appreciate if you would not use a Democratic avatar, it is insulting to the party.  Second of all, Huckabee is a religious fanatic who would not win any Kerry states, and would certainly lose the election.  If anything, this map is being very generous to Huckabee.
27175  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What would you get the previous poster for Christmas? on: December 22, 2007, 09:17:56 pm
A pet kangaroo
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