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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio-PPP: Trump +3; tied in binary race on: July 26, 2016, 08:42:24 am
How many millions of special interest dollars did she spent in Ohio already? And how many staffers does she have in that state? And how many did TRUMP spent by contrast? It's obvious which candidate is running the better and more efficient campaign.

Efficacy of staffers will show up on Election Day, not in polling.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis/OANN: Trump +2 on: July 23, 2016, 10:29:11 pm
43% of electorate is between 50 and 64?!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: July 22, 2016, 08:19:55 pm
Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Perhaps. After Scott Brown, 2010, and 2014 midterms I am deeply cynical about elections after a Democrat wins.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: July 22, 2016, 08:06:20 pm
Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: After disasterous RNC Speech who will challenge Ted Cruz in Senate GOP Primary? on: July 22, 2016, 08:30:20 am
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241375.0
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Woman tries to buy birthday cake for her wife... on: July 20, 2016, 08:46:36 pm
Is this the only place to buy a cake?  And they don't like gay people?  Seems like a perfect business opportunity for someone that isn't a bigot.

If there are only a few gay people in town, it doesn't sound like a "perfect business opportunity" unless you want to charge extortionate prices of gay customers banned from the other bakery. This baker can successfully discriminate without suffering much in the way of consequences.

Except for retaliation by activists.
Their yelp page is now a bunch of unbelievably awful supposed reviews by people who live hundreds of miles away.

Hmm, if any of those reviews are inauthentic the owner can work with Yelp to have them removed. I know some people think that freedom to discriminate should mean freedom to discriminate without any negative consequences; fortunately this is a pretty minor inconvenience compared to what the baker was dishing out, we can agree.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Woman tries to buy birthday cake for her wife... on: July 20, 2016, 08:43:14 pm
Is this the only place to buy a cake?  And they don't like gay people?  Seems like a perfect business opportunity for someone that isn't a bigot.

If there are only a few gay people in town, it doesn't sound like a "perfect business opportunity" unless you want to charge extortionate prices of gay customers banned from the other bakery. This baker can successfully discriminate without suffering much in the way of consequences.

Why do you assume that only gay people would want to avoid giving their business to an anti-gay bigot?

20+ years' experience as an out gay man watching ineffective boycotts against Cracker Barrel, Exxon, state of South Carolina, etc. and knowing how this issue plays outside of liberal communities. What's your experience?
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Woman tries to buy birthday cake for her wife... on: July 20, 2016, 07:39:29 am
Is this the only place to buy a cake?  And they don't like gay people?  Seems like a perfect business opportunity for someone that isn't a bigot.

If there are only a few gay people in town, it doesn't sound like a "perfect business opportunity" unless you want to charge extortionate prices of gay customers banned from the other bakery. This baker can successfully discriminate without suffering much in the way of consequences.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's chances of winning Wisconsin just got lower on: July 20, 2016, 07:33:06 am
Millions of Americans can't get IDs because they lost their birth certificates or never received them because their families were poor and they were born at home. It's not hard to find stories of Americans who are in this trap, and they are disproportionately African-American (think of healthcare options of African-American mothers in the south) or poor.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander on: July 15, 2016, 10:28:21 am
Blunt is the embodiment of the Washington establishment.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ: Fl, VA, CO, NC on: July 15, 2016, 08:10:39 am
I don't see how "Little Marco" threads the needle of running for Senate on the same line as an unpopular Presidential candidate who he both cozied up to and slammed in really immature ways. While I am sure lots of Cuban-Americans will split their votes to support him and he'll run ahead of Trump, he's got to be seriously damaged goods with hours of video ready to runa gainst him.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the largest country that is 100% habitable? on: July 13, 2016, 10:32:09 am
How about the Ukraine?

That's a really good thought, with one caveat since 1986...

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: David Duke Weighing Challange to Steve Scalise on: July 13, 2016, 09:36:35 am
What if Duke gets a Cabinet appointment?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Monmouth: Grassley +10 on: July 12, 2016, 08:50:46 pm
Grassley is running 8 points ahead of Trump. That's good, but will it be enough?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: July 12, 2016, 03:36:43 pm
That's a good point about 2010—the Tea Party recruiting failures kept Republicans from sweeping winnable races. But I can't think of any Democrat in 2016 who is a recruitment failure on the scale of Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle, or even a Ken Buck. Katie McGinty isn't in their league. Maybe if Alan Grayson won his primary...
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: July 12, 2016, 09:54:17 am
When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More likely: Dem sweep or Trump win on: July 12, 2016, 09:29:10 am
Trump has a lower ceiling than the Dem congressional ballot does. Neither is likely, but I can see a Dem takeover of the House happening if Trump collapses, while I can't see the Dem collapse necessary for Trump to win the Presidency.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the largest country that is 100% habitable? on: July 12, 2016, 08:57:19 am
Luxembourg?

Netherlands might beat it.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: July 11, 2016, 03:53:12 pm
Where the hell did Bayh even get all that money before suddenly announcing a campaign?

It's from his 2010 campaign that he abandoned and never gave to anyone else in 2010, 2012, or 2014.

It seemed like a jerk move when he retired, but given that he would have lost in 2010 anyway it sure looks like the right decision.

Is Bayh purposely trolling the Democrats or something?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: July 11, 2016, 10:30:10 am
Looks like retiring before the 2010 election with a very big campaign account intact was a smart thing to do.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which state has the worst name? on: July 08, 2016, 04:09:08 pm
Virginia, because if you strip away the history and just think that it's derived from the word "virgin," that's pretty weird in 2016.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: July 08, 2016, 11:59:14 am
I mean checking the voter lists if someone has voted etc.

"tick off" is probably the wrong word ... Tongue

Your use of "tick off" was a correct usage, albeit more British than American.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders booed by house democrats on: July 08, 2016, 08:12:30 am
You guys do realize that Democrats had a Senate Majority from 2007 to 2009 thanks to Sanders vote?

Yeah, never helped the party at all.

Kalwejt, you could make the exact same argument about Joe Lieberman during that time period.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are Trump's 16 target battleground states? on: July 03, 2016, 11:44:57 am

It's based on Trump's statements, not what actually makes sense for the campaign to contest.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-Republican convention discussion LATEST: speakers to be announced on Wednes. on: July 03, 2016, 06:12:06 am
Well, here is a snippet, courtesy of CNN:

"..The "winners' night" Trump has promised would be jam-packed with sports figures supportive of his candidacy, and he has floated such big names as New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, UFC President Dana White and NASCAR CEO Brian France..."

Ben Carson is also confirmed as a speaker.

Have any of those people (other than Carson) announced they are going to Cleveland? Tom Brady knows enough about media to know better than to speak.
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