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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Denali ! on: Today at 07:28:51 pm
Karl Rove pointed out that if not for McKinney's annexing Hawaii in 1898, Barack Obama would never have become President.

10 points Gryffendor.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult (national): Trump increase lead on: Today at 07:20:27 pm
Simply unbelievable.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Des Moines Register: Trump and Carson lead, everyone else far behind on: August 30, 2015, 12:08:01 pm
Lindsay Graham at 59% unfavorable... wow.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon" on: August 30, 2015, 12:06:46 pm
He's going to make the pledge because he has to in order to appear on the primary ballot in some states.

But that doesn't mean he can't change his mind.

Exactly. He's had no problem shamelessly making 180º changes that would make Mitt Romney's head spin.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How brutal is this Scott Walker clip? on: August 26, 2015, 01:50:53 pm
I haven't watched the clip, but... I remember the audio clip from a few years ago when a guy pretended to be one of the Koch brothers and called Walker's office. Walker sounded fluent and informed about his political agenda in conversation. That's why I've been slower to see what others see here.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders elected, what will he accomplish? on: August 24, 2015, 08:53:38 am
Nothing, and then he loses a primary for renomination in 2020 to a challenger from the left who argues he sold out and did nothing to change Washington.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Jeb! Photoshop fail in Iowa mailer. on: August 22, 2015, 09:58:22 am
you have to see it.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/desperate-jeb-goes-full-dolezal
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Expecting 30,000+ At S. Alabama University: HELD AT FOOTBALL STADIUM on: August 21, 2015, 10:20:23 am
"Ultra Nationalism." 

You're using hyperbole; he's not SD.

On immigration issues, he's far more ultra nationalist than Putin. Even crazy Putin would never in his wildest dreams consider deporting 11 or 12 million of his own citizens.

I'm not going to defend Trump by any means, but the 11 or 12 million are all defined as *not* being citizens or even legal residents without citizenship.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Clinton and Trump ahead on: August 19, 2015, 01:19:00 pm
Poor Lindsay Graham. He doesn't even register on the change table.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Comes out Against Arctic Drilling on: August 19, 2015, 08:26:25 am
Quote
"The melting of sea ice, for example, will result in... the possibility to develop newly accessible oil and gas reserves," Clinton said during a speech in Greenland in 2011. "We seek to pursue these opportunities in a smart, sustainable way that preserves the Arctic environment and ecosystem."

What is it that we now know about the Arctic that we didn't in 2011?  (serious question)

Further evidence of and experience with climate change; it means we have to commit to leaving more fossil fuels under the ground where God left them to avoid worse outcomes.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: All the Electable Republicans Are Losing on: August 19, 2015, 07:59:46 am
Why doesn't Scott Walker get more credit for being an unusually effective and doctrinaire conservative?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Campaign in Free Fall? on: August 18, 2015, 09:58:15 am
He hasn't done anything to rule himself out and has plenty of opportunities left to break out. How often were John McCain or John Kerry written off during their primaries?

My basically writing Walker off has more to do with his abilities as a candidate then his standing in the polls. He is just not that bright or knowledgeable, and tends to fall apart when not scripted. Those type of candidates typically fail to go the distance.

I can see the point, and not to be snarky, but what about George W. Bush? He had advantages Scott Walker lacks, but conversely, I think Walker is knowledgable in the areas he cares about (certain aspects of policy, campaign strategy) even if he's out of his depth on foreign policy and some other areas.

Bush had a tide of goodwill based on his personality. I think Walker, while he has no charisma, may have a similar advantage to draw on because of his record in Wisconsin.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Campaign in Free Fall? on: August 18, 2015, 08:06:43 am
He hasn't done anything to rule himself out and has plenty of opportunities left to break out. How often were John McCain or John Kerry written off during their primaries?
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lower Federal court tosses VA Congressional map again on: August 17, 2015, 09:24:16 pm
Legislature, Governor are predictably unable to compromise. McAuliffe has nothing to lose by holding out. It's likely going to the judges.

http://wric.com/2015/08/17/virginia-lawmakers-at-a-standstill-over-redistricting/
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AL - News-5/Strategy Research Poll - Trump leads by 15; Clinton leads by 68 on: August 13, 2015, 11:59:21 pm
Yeah not going to be a good state for Sanders.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Emerson College: Sanders surging nationally, Trump ahead on: August 13, 2015, 05:59:49 am
That may be right, but you are underestimating the African American loyalty to the Clintons.

That may be starting to change.

Quote
“Bernie has become somebody I have tremendous respect for and is an ally of mine in addressing issues in the United States Senate that affect minority communities,” he said.

“He has a long record of civil rights,” Booker told host George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250686-booker-sanders-has-long-record-of-civil-rights

Cory Booker has an unusual biography and path to elected office and his views aren't really representative.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-08 - Hollywood Actress Melissa Gilbert (D) running on: August 12, 2015, 07:43:06 am
Ftr, Gilbert does have a little "political experience" (if you want to call it that) in that she was president of the Screen Actors Guild from 2001-2005.


The same experience as when Ronald Reagan ran for governor of California in 1966, unless you count making propaganda films as experience.

Well, the propaganda film he broadcast for Barry Goldwater's campaign just before Election Day in 1964 helped propel his career upward beyond the GE programs he'd been making. I wouldn't discount that experience and I've never heard of Melissa Gilbert making a splash in the real world of politics.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump on: August 11, 2015, 09:07:10 pm
If somehow Trump won the nomination--and I don't know how that would happen--it would be a 50-state sweep for Clinton with epically low turnout in the safe Republican states.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO-PPP: Blunt +5 over Kander. Blunt favorability is deeply underwater on: August 11, 2015, 08:47:58 am
#waveinsurance
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How/Why/When does Trump fall from the top? on: August 11, 2015, 07:39:03 am
Trump is not a "special" candidate or demonstrating a new founded historical figure in the making. He's Herman Cain with a more populist zeal.

Unlike Cain, he's a genuine celebrity. People know him already, and he knows how to play to the cameras. We're in uncharted territory here.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Southern Jewish vote on: August 11, 2015, 07:36:01 am
There are Jewish people in the south? I mean outside of Florida?

There used to be small Jewish communities all over the South, down even to small cities in Mississippi. Most of them have dissipated with economic changes. Here's a documentary from 2003 I saw on this:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0365746/

Nowadays I'd guess that most Jews in the non-Florida South are youngish transplants from the north to places like Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Dallas.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult national: Trump's lead grows after debate on: August 11, 2015, 06:07:42 am
Trump's menstruation strategy is a game changer. Bush and other candidates need to adopt it asap if they want to stand a chance.

Perhaps they will all sync up at the next debate.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If it's Hillary vs. Donald... on: August 10, 2015, 08:11:57 pm
It's not Hillary's coat tails that would do it.

It would be millions of Republican-leaning voters staying home because Trump. It's easy to forget that a large number of voters don't really care about their downballot votes and will just support their party's candidates, and if they don't come out, you are screwed.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If it's Hillary vs. Donald... on: August 10, 2015, 07:21:20 pm
Yes. But he can't possibly become the nominee.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AZ-GOP Primary Trump Lead Slipping on: August 10, 2015, 02:05:11 pm
Why is Cruz gaining from the debate?
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