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February 09, 2016, 07:46:26 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Massachusetts Governor 2018 on: February 08, 2016, 12:58:56 pm
Seth Moulton may be literally the only high-level Democrat in the state who has criticized Baker recently. Everyone else has left a trail of "Baker is a good guy you can work with" quotes and won't bother running against him.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Frothy can't name any of Rubio's Senate accomplishments on: February 05, 2016, 09:50:59 am
Not to derail the thread, but another example: A little girl suffering from the disease progeria makes videos on Youtube.  The poor little thing looks horribly disfigured, but she has an innocent loving heart...

...you do know about the incredibly offensive and obnoxious way Santorum talks about gays that caused Dan Savage to start this campaign, don't you?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: February 05, 2016, 09:30:39 am
Hello all,

   It looks like this thread shifted from a discussion of the (fascinatingly unique) political situation in Louisiana into one that focused more on individual posters' motivations. I've removed and edited some negative posts that were in that subthread in the interest of the discussion itself, which I hope can return.
   
   Lassez les bon temps rouler.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: Washington State with B.C. parties on: February 05, 2016, 09:23:36 am
This topic has been moved to Election What-ifs?.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228363.0
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jebra asks for applause during stump speech on: February 04, 2016, 12:17:36 pm
Video is so much less pathetic than the headline promised.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Santorum dropping presidential bid. on: February 03, 2016, 04:03:56 pm
His voter is probably considering switching to Carson, Cruz, or Rubio.

Or taking a nice nap
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Gallup: secular trend in U.S. religious affiliation is slowly continuing on: February 02, 2016, 12:31:54 pm
This is all purely anecdotal and maybe limited only to people in a "hipster"/"alternative" outlook, but basically every person I know in the "None" category went there in the 18-24 category, if not earlier. Far more likely to occur in 25-29 is moving BACK from "None" to Christian rather than moving to "None" for the first time.

True, but consider the 18/19/20-year-olds who are religious now but will become "None" as they get to college and graduate as 21/22/23/24-year-olds.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump finished? on: February 02, 2016, 11:44:31 am
We had umpteen "X is finished" stories in the 2008 and 2012 primaries and things always changed.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Gallup: secular trend in U.S. religious affiliation is slowly continuing on: February 01, 2016, 08:53:10 am
This is likely statistical noise, but the fact that there is no difference between the 18-24 and 25-29 cohorts in "None" is slightly hopeful.

Conversely, it may be that some of the youngest cohort haven't yet made the transition from religious to non-religious in their own lives but will.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: Rubio for Vice President. on: January 25, 2016, 09:56:15 am
This topic has been moved to 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227069.0
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump be the GOP nominee? on: January 24, 2016, 01:19:09 pm
Seeing the establishment move into his corner this week to block Cruz seals it. This is how it's going to be.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary lost the general, would Bernie run in 2020? on: January 24, 2016, 01:36:10 am
Sanders on Election Day would be older than Reagan was on his final day of office.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Flint's water issues on: January 21, 2016, 06:34:14 pm
It is telling the blame around here is directed as Snyder not the actual officials in control of the issue including the EPA. 

Didn't Snyder appoint the emergency manager in control of the issue? The whole point of an emergency manager is for the state executive to step in for local government.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2015 state population estimates out today on: January 18, 2016, 03:18:48 pm
When Maryland gain a district?

According to Jim's table, it's trending very slightly downward.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pres. Obama Declares 3-Year Moratorium on Coal Leasing Program on: January 17, 2016, 10:33:47 pm
Freedom Moratorium
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-2: Rigell retiring on: January 16, 2016, 06:38:23 pm
Poor Ed Schrock. I forgot about what happened to him until this thread.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz regretting the "New York values" line of attack? on: January 16, 2016, 12:07:37 pm
Cruz is not capable of regret.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-2: Rigell retiring on: January 14, 2016, 10:07:22 pm
This district has been unexpectedly competitive in the distant past... As an open seat in 2000 I think.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CO-Sen: Mike Coffman out on: January 14, 2016, 05:54:39 pm
Gardner's margin of victory was not impressive. Ed Gillespie got a higher perecentage of the vote than Cory Gardner. Udall could have definitely won had he run a better campaign - despite it being 2014.

An alternative view is that his narrow loss to Gardner showed that his "Mark Uterus" campaign was actually the best effort to keep it close, and it wasn't enough given how tremendous the Republican wave was combined with the electability of his opponent.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CO-Sen: Mike Coffman out on: January 14, 2016, 01:56:42 pm
Last Dem Corp poll showed Bennet doing very well against GOP.

That just doesn't make sense. If Mark Udall of all people could get thrown out and be replaced by a clown like Cory Gardnernor no real reason, how is Bennet doing so well?

Because Michael Bennet hasn't started running a one-issue campaign on abortion to the point where the papers are calling him Michael Uterus (yet). That's the main reason Mark Udall lost.

Udall lost because 2014.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who was the worst candidate: Sharron Angle or Martha Coakley? on: January 14, 2016, 12:11:08 pm
Brown and Baker are only "heavyweights" ex post: and, at least in case of Brown, his only claim to be a majorl politician is defeating Coakley: he had no chance against even a moderately competent Democratic politician (as should be the case in MA, of course: this is not reflection on Brown, but of reality).

Oh, I think Capuano or any other Democrat would have lost to Brown as well in 2010. He wasn't accomplished nor did he prove to be very smart, but he was charismatic and had the right message at a really bad time for Democrats.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz Broke the Law on: January 14, 2016, 09:23:13 am
GOP primary voters - and in this case, Cruz's supporters specifically - aren't going to care one bit about this.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Cruz wins will he get primaried in 2020? on: January 11, 2016, 09:31:29 pm
Yes, almost certainly.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: RCP: Calculating the chances of a Dem takeover of the Senate on: January 11, 2016, 09:27:36 pm
Given how every one of those elections was marked by all of the close elections tipping one way or the other, you still end up much closer to a sample size of 5 rather than a sample size of 5 * (Senate class size).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the Republican Establishment support Ted Cruz if he is the Nominee? on: January 10, 2016, 12:16:35 am
Define "support." They'll do the minimum that they wouldn't do for Trump, but not much more.
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