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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich. on: July 28, 2015, 09:07:52 am
I wonder how much Clinton's fall in approvals from a month ago result from her getting visible (if not viable) opponents, shifting a bunch of Dems from tepid approval to active disapproval that will flip back after she wins the nomination.

I am certain the split in the GOP field accounts for higher disapprovals on individuals there until everyone rallies around the winner.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Moderator changes: 2015 edition on: July 27, 2015, 01:17:40 pm
The new moderator of the gubernatorial/statewide board and congressional board is a junk polling company.

Fixed. Smiley
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Are Too Angry About Gay Marriage on: July 25, 2015, 07:25:36 pm
All of the scenarios have clear ways to victory. If Dr. King were here, he'd be on my side. Your side can't say that.

Well, his widow Coretta Scott King, who knew his heart reasonably well, supported both anti-discrimination laws covering sexual orientation in Dr. King's name, and was an early endorser of same-sex marriage before her death in 2006. While the 1960s were prehistoric times for gay rights--even being gay was illegal in many states until 2003!--we have seen how other civil rights advocates from the era such as John Lewis have evolved.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato Update: A Small Senate Battlefield on: July 24, 2015, 09:12:24 pm
Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

Okay, seriously? I agree Duckworth is the favorite, but Kirk isn't like Terri Lynn Land (completely inept) or Bill Brady (tea party). This is going to be competitive.

In a presidential year, it should be as competitive as Scott Brown against Elizabeth Warren in 2012... He may put up a good fight but the math will not allow him to win.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2016 Congressional Elections on: July 24, 2015, 09:56:42 am
Why do the democrats like Crist so much? This man stands for NOTHING. He has changed his mind on every major position in the last 5 years. He is so blatantly after power for its own sake that its a joke. This is going to be a democratic leaning district and they certainly dont need Crist in order to win it, so why go back to him? I dont get it.

I don't have a strong opinion on Crist, but the House has pretty strong party discipline so if we have someone who can win easily there and make no waves in Washington, there's no reason to oppose him.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: D: Clinton 58% Sanders 17%; R: Bush 28% Rubio 16% Walker 13% on: July 24, 2015, 08:53:39 am
Christie 0%
Pataki 0%

That has to hurt. I bet Christie and Pataki were both hoping that some of their former constituents would help them out.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The cause of the Trump surge. on: July 23, 2015, 01:56:25 pm
Trump is the Republican id and they are without a superego.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump rules out third party run on: July 22, 2015, 02:31:30 pm
I'm sure whatever Trump said in response to that question was well thought-out and unlikely to change in any way.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls of CO, IA, VA. Clinton in big trouble. on: July 22, 2015, 11:02:54 am
I won't believe it until both the Vorlon and J.J. show up on this thread.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo-National: Trump still leads on: July 21, 2015, 02:02:59 pm
How can a sample size of 50 produce anything "statistically significant"?

Margin of error for a sample size of 50 is 14%. If his number was like 5% on Sunday, that would be a statistically significant drop from 24% even counting the MOE on the larger non-Sunday sample, too.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump doxxes Graham on: July 21, 2015, 01:35:25 pm
Jesus Christ.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 21, 2015, 01:30:51 pm
If you lose three times in your state, just run in a Democratic district!

I think this guy wins the prize for going to Congress as a consolation for losing statewide four times.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_McClintock
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News changes timing and length of forum for 2nd tier candidates on: July 21, 2015, 01:11:47 pm
You know, having the forum be much smaller and giving each person significant time is probably the only way this forum will serve these second tier candidates well.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump SURGES after McCain comments on: July 21, 2015, 10:24:33 am
...most of which was taken before the McCain comments, and whose small Sunday sample had a big drop for Trump.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPO National: Clinton leads Bush on: July 21, 2015, 10:22:28 am
What would the map of Trump support look like if he actually ran as an Independent?


Here's a good starting point.



Is Trump now the functional equivalent of UKIP?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AP Poll: Support for SSM closely divided; majority prioritize religious freedom on: July 21, 2015, 08:47:55 am
Who is trying to elide these two?

Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, for one. He's the first one who comes to mind encouraging county officials to have a religious opt-out from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ken-paxton-texas-official-says-state-clerks-can-deny-gay-marriage-licences-1.3131422

Let me state now, I fully understand the discomfort of county clerks in conservative areas who have objections to same-sex marriage and who never expected this to be part of their jobs. But I suggest that the onus is on them to find a way to reconcile their beliefs with their job responsibilities, either by finding a viable alternate channel for people to get the license as easily as an opposite-sex couple would, or if they absolutely can't work it out, to step aside for someone who can actually do the job they've been hired to do.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AP Poll: Support for SSM closely divided; majority prioritize religious freedom on: July 20, 2015, 03:50:57 pm
I wouldn't consider issuing a license to be equivalent to officiating at the ceremony.

This.

Especially if your job is to issue licenses to people according to the law of the land, as opposed to performing marriages according to the doctrines of your church. People keep trying to elide these two.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 19, 2015, 08:44:55 am
The minority packing is of a contiguous area, makes for a compact CD, and it is the only way to elect a minority, although that would not be guaranteed, but if Hispanics are willing to vote for a black to some extent in a Dem primary, or blacks an Hispanic to some extent, it will happen. Having two Dem CD's means electing two white liberals, and shutting out a minority congressperson.  

Do we have historical evidence of racial block voting in Democratic primaries in this area, so that there is a candidate of the "white community"'s choice who will defeat a candidate reflecting the choice of the black or Hispanic communities? The race of the candidate himself is somewhat related to that, but it varies a lot. I'm not trying to be difficult here, but Central Florida is really unlike places like L.A. County or Brooklyn where this equation is usually considered.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes one step too far on: July 19, 2015, 08:09:15 am
He also let his youngest daughter get dragged through the mud in the worst ways possible during the 2000 Republican primary.

What do you think McCain could or should have done differently in this case?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Suffolk: Trump leads GOP field. on: July 14, 2015, 05:43:21 pm
Democrats shouldn't be too cocky about 2016--it's a tossup as far as I can tell--but a chart like this doesn't really inspire fear in Democrats about what the Republicans will throw at us.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Monmouth: Bush & Trump ahead on: July 14, 2015, 05:41:54 pm
LOL at Christie having a higher absolute unfavorable number than Trump with lower recognition.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Party like its 2004 - Santorum wants constitutional amm. to ban ALL SSM on: July 14, 2015, 12:51:01 pm
Whenever there are two sides to a political issue, Santorum can be relied on to support a third which is worse than both.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV Congressional Races 2016 on: July 13, 2015, 03:37:40 pm
Senators named Heller and Heck would be awesome.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 11, 2015, 07:21:18 am
What would be the political breakdown of that new FL-3? I know the FL Rs have long attempted to split or otherwise minimize the influence of Gainesville and even smaller towns like Palatka - does one that largely contains both have any potential for a Dem pickup?

A large majority of the population lives in Marion County and Clay County (just SW of Jax). Clay Couty is hyper Republican and Marion County is solidly Republican. Alachua will be drowned out.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 10:17:01 am
The article we've all been looking for:

In wake of historic redistricting decision, here are maps! maps! maps! detailing the possible changes
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