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November 23, 2014, 08:13:39 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Incoming Nevada Speaker is a real piece of work on: Today at 03:04:33 pm

Wow, that's some profound contrition from him.

2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: Today at 09:51:24 am
Because of Coleman's lawsuit, Kennedy's death, Republican solidarity, and McConnell's exploitation of the rules, there was not time in the legislative calendar to reform our broken immigration system after the economic recovery act was passed and health care reform was undertaken.

Republican votes for Democratic initiatives, even ones Republicans had voted for in the past or authored, tended to evaporate as the actual vote came closer. It was in their best interest to deny Dems the claim of bipartisanship so they could run against Democrats in the next election.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 22, 2014, 11:47:33 am
I was responding to King's "strong presidency" hypothetical.

If I wanted Obama to knuckle under, I would not have supported ACA. That is proof that the legislative process can work.

...when you have 60 senators from the majority party, which the Dems enjoyed for like 5 months in 2009. Unsustainable.


Coakley blew it, but in the end MA of all states voted in number 41 Scott Brown to stop the healthcare law. That says that somewhere along the line Democrats screwed up rather badly in the process of forming and passing the law. The size of he majority bred complacency as did the promises of its forty year longevity. They thought they had time to squabble over different components and such forth.

If Obama had started with immigration he would have had it by August of 2009 most likely.

Like I said, requiring 60 votes in the Senate to pass law is a symptom of a broken government. We have natural swings toward the middle and the party in power is judged by their ability to govern. A President with huge majorities in both houses shouldn't be limited to the first 1.5 initiatives he can accomplish before natural trends reduce the majority to just very large. Remember the impact of Norm Coleman's lawsuit.

I don't expect blue avatars to sympathize with the Dem agenda in 2009 but I hope you'll consider the impact of a majority party being judged on their efficacy by voters when the minority party--in some cases, a minority party reduced to a small regional rump--can exercise a veto and then run against the majority for its inability to govern.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Wyoming go Democrat in 2016? on: November 22, 2014, 09:56:29 am
RuPaul has a home in Wyoming.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 22, 2014, 08:31:21 am
I was responding to King's "strong presidency" hypothetical.

If I wanted Obama to knuckle under, I would not have supported ACA. That is proof that the legislative process can work.

...when you have 60 senators from the majority party, which the Dems enjoyed for like 5 months in 2009. Unsustainable.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 22, 2014, 08:27:46 am
Well, I don't know. On the one hand, Congress not doing what you want does not mean Congress is broken.

I mentioned the filibuster and gerrymandering in particular. Because of the filibuster, democratic majorities could not pass laws in reasonable time in 2009-2010. Because of gerrymandering, we had a split Congress in 2013-2014 even when Democrats got over 1 million votes more than Republicans in 2012 House elections. Unified Congresses in either of those terms should have been more productive.

No, I don't consider Congress broken because split or Republican Congresses didn't pass laws I support.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever participated in a protest? on: November 21, 2014, 05:03:51 pm
Yes. I marched in Boston after Election Day 2000 with a sign protesting the miscount in Florida.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 21, 2014, 12:45:53 pm
Our federal government is broken. Obama's executive order is part of the breaking. But he's doing this because Congress is broken. And no, hand waving about "the Constitution" is not an excuse for Congress's dysfunction. The filibuster and gerrymandering are nowhere in the constitution and they have made governance close to impossible.

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: November 21, 2014, 10:16:45 am
100% name recognition doesn't mean "no one can ever change their opinion or how they describe their opinion of a politician."



No, but it is a lot harder to move the opinion needle on a politician that is the very definition of a known commodity than it is to move the opinion needle on someone who is only now entering the national spotlight.

This is what I was responding to:

"And because she has 100% name recognition, everybody has already heard of her, so she can't get any more positives. So, her ceiling is 43% positive."
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: November 21, 2014, 09:25:10 am
100% name recognition doesn't mean "no one can ever change their opinion or how they describe their opinion of a politician."

11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does Bushie remind you of Scumbag Steve? on: November 21, 2014, 09:17:31 am
Nope.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: 10 Maps That Explain the Next Election on: November 19, 2014, 01:02:13 pm
Mississippi was majority African American until the 1930s.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any other Democrats anxious about Hillary? on: November 19, 2014, 01:00:38 pm

Until then, I see her as liable to going the way of Al Gore, killed by "inevitability" and perceived pretentiousness. Heck Bernie Sanders and O'Malley may as well be the next Bill Bradley.

Actually Gore was trailing by double digits for much of 1998 and 1999, and he ended up with the most votes. In June 1999, Fox had a poll with Bush up 60-28.

Hillary is more like Bush than like Gore in that scenario. The inevitable candidate the whole party coalesces around with high ratings who stumbles out of the gate.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any other Democrats anxious about Hillary? on: November 18, 2014, 10:21:43 pm
Of course. She wasn't a particularly good candidate in 2008. I expect stumbles.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Hillary Clinton excite strong Obama supported while distancing herself? on: November 18, 2014, 06:56:59 pm
She shouldn't have much trouble distinguishing herself from Obama. She's not exactly his VP plucked from obscurity.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Hillary Clinton believes she can expand the '08 map on: November 17, 2014, 09:05:28 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/hillary-clinton-2016-map

Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, and Arizona.

Hubris, party of 1?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Another American has died of Ebola. on: November 17, 2014, 09:01:47 am
Sad. I read an article about him this weekend... felt he could not stay away from Sierra Leone because he was needed.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 05:54:45 pm
Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopularindicted: he lost.

19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Here comes Obama's impeachment on: November 16, 2014, 03:51:43 pm
I don't think Cruz is Judiciary Chairman so he doesn't have direct power to force a trial.

True, but if he hasn't changed since 2013 he can threaten to filibuster the senate until they take up the impeachment, and whip up anger among the base that doesn't realize why this would be a bad idea. McConnell's and Boehner's weakness is that they are strategic and sensible leaders, but they can be outflanked if someone gets on a soapbox and channels the base's anger.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 16, 2014, 09:03:43 am
Hastert said on C-span the other day that was never any thing known as the "Hastert Rule", just that a Speaker couldn't long exist as Speaker if he didn't retain the support of a majority of his conference. Seem to endorse having the occassionall all Dems+30 or 40 Republican vote on some things.

In the last Congress, Boehner did jettison the Hastert rule and let some bills go through with predominantly Democratic support.

How do people think he will treat immigration? It seems like republicans have not considered this an issue to give up on, unlike the budget. They'd rather let Obama make it an issue in the 2016 campaign.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Here comes Obama's impeachment on: November 15, 2014, 11:30:24 pm
McConnell will not put impeachment to a vote. He knows doing so would lose the Senate in 2016.

If the House votes to impeach, Ted Cruz will find a way to force the Senate to hold a trial, even if McConnell knows better.
22  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Let's have a pleasant meeting over coffee & cheese and talk about CountryClassSF on: November 15, 2014, 04:40:45 pm
In oldAtlas, this would never have been a thread. "OMG! someone is a right-wing reactionary!"

Who cares? Seriously.

That's not what CountryClassSF is. He's an obvious sock and troll.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Republicans considering another government shutdown over immigration on: November 15, 2014, 04:01:06 pm
Oh crap. Has Obama triggered this too soon? They could shut down the government, get spanked in the polls, and reopen it with plenty of time to recover before the 2016 elections.
24  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Let's have a pleasant meeting over coffee & cheese and talk about CountryClassSF on: November 15, 2014, 10:22:45 am
He's trolling a little more aggressively this week.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Some of MAGOP already talking about primary challenge to Baker in 2018 on: November 14, 2014, 04:34:57 pm
They have every right to voice their opposition, if he's being too moderate, then they should be preparing to find someone to represent their values better. The Republican Party is the conservative party, and they should act as such.

We get you want the GOP to lose, but obviously Baker is the most conservative possible governor you could elect in MA.

We have seen a different model. Mitt Romney ran as a moderate technocrat, but then governed as a conservative and a partisan Republican. Charlie Baker ran as a moderate technocrat, and by all accounts that's exactly how he plans to govern.

If the "real Republican party" wants to coalesce around Curt Schilling or Brian Camenker to run, they're welcome to try.
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