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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 27, 2016, 04:12:49 pm
Unstickying and locking this thread given that the older thread is livelier.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 27, 2016, 04:06:10 pm
Let's stay on topic and keep more sensitive topics to other threads. Thank you. --Mod.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2016 Gubernatorial and Statewide Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 08, 2016, 02:51:05 pm
In Massachusetts, we have no statewide elected officials up but have some controversial ballot measures.

1: slot parlor in Revere
2: lift the cap on charter schools
3: more room in cages for farm animals
4: legalize marijuana
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / 2016 Gubernatorial and Statewide Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 08, 2016, 02:27:40 pm
Governors, Marijuana, Charter Schools, Single-Payer, let's go! 
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / 2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 08, 2016, 02:26:20 pm
Let's go!
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Moderator's note: Nov. 8, 2016 on: November 08, 2016, 10:49:00 am
Hi all. A note on how to discuss differences of opinion on gender identity on boards I moderate:

Debates on gender identity and understanding of transgenderism are acceptable when relevant to an issue of state or federal policy, such as HB2 in North Carolina, and I will moderate very lightly in support of free debate.

These debates are not acceptable on discussions of individuals who may be transgender who are running for state and federal office, and posts that display a lack of respect for an individual's identity and dignity and follow-up conversations will be moderated appropriately.

Thank you.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Moderator's note: Nov. 8, 2016 on: November 08, 2016, 10:48:18 am
Hi all. A note on how to discuss differences of opinion on gender identity on boards I moderate:

Debates on gender identity and understanding of transgenderism are acceptable when relevant to an issue of state or federal policy, such as HB2 in North Carolina, and I will moderate very lightly in support of free debate.

These debates are not acceptable on discussions of individuals who may be transgender who are running for state and federal office, and posts that display a lack of respect for an individual's identity and dignity and follow-up conversations will be moderated appropriately.

Thank you.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Broward break 1 million votes this election? on: November 08, 2016, 10:21:12 am
That would analogize to nationwide turnout of 174 million, plus Broward has a higher-than-average share of non-citizens, so pretty unlikely.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: UT: YouGov: Lee +46 on: November 07, 2016, 10:16:45 pm
Transphobic comments will not be tolerated. Let's stick to politics.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Create a scenario where Misty Snow wins on: November 07, 2016, 10:10:37 pm
Transphobia will not be tolerated on this board. Comment and resulting discussion removed.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Angus Reid National: Clinton +4 on: November 07, 2016, 02:53:39 pm
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rumour: AG - Giuliani/ SOS - Gingrich/ Chief of Staff - Priebus on: November 07, 2016, 08:57:38 am
What Cabinet departments will Trump assign to Bobby Knight, Ted Nugent, and Omarosa?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Boston Herald/Franklin Pearce Univ.: Hillary+3 in final national poll on: November 07, 2016, 06:47:57 am
Boston Herald is equivalent to the New York Post.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Many Obama states will Trump Carry? on: November 06, 2016, 11:31:59 am
Iowa only.

There's a chance for Ohio to fall his way, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Florida is gone for him.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:30:39 am
tender has a point even while he makes it in a really unconvincing way, imho.

less about austria than about countries feeling the wave of new big-gov right-wing-populism, killing the old conservative parties.

even while i would suggest, demographics and economy of the US makes it more robust against crypto-fascism than europe.

There is certainly an analogy between the Trump phenomenon and right-wing politics all over Europe. It is a powerful force.

But each election has two sides, and there is no comparison between a Democratic candidate with a reasonably united and very strong campaign apparatus and a Green Party gadfly who mainly benefited from being a vessel for anti-fascist votes. Whatever your personal view of Hillary Clinton—and Tender has not been shy in expressing his disgust—she is a strong candidate among a large share of the Democratic coalition.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:24:48 am
Also the candidates are roughly comparable

Hillary Clinton is a major party candidate; Austria's major parties have been eclipsed by splinter groups. No comparison.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Trump +1 (OH), Tie (FL) on: November 06, 2016, 11:17:33 am

The topline trend in both states favours Trump:

Extrapolating momentum isn't really a thing, Tender.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 05, 2016, 09:50:59 pm
The Midwest is voting like it's 2004 while the rest of the country votes like it's 2008, except for Arizona and Texas which are voting like it's 2024.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:41:34 am
Republicans are doing better on Election Day.

The math isn't there. Also, Election Day hasn't happened.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:29:32 am
Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
It is only early voting though Smiley

Ok, so you're banking on very large turnout on Election Day of white voters who vote more pro-Trump than the white voters (disproportionately elderly) who have shown up in large numbers so far.

I'm sorry, but that's a recipe for disappointment.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:13:17 am
Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN - WTHR: Trump +11 on: November 04, 2016, 11:55:37 am
Bayh Bayh Bayh
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 08:38:31 am
Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill Goes Into HRC Cabinet... on: November 04, 2016, 07:14:25 am
Hillary won't appoint more than one Senator to the cabinet. The pros of having McCaskill as Secretary of Department of Whatever surely aren't worth the cons of losing her seat.

I can't see Hillary appointing a lot of incumbents to the cabinet. She's too smart to do that, and she has a massive network of qualified supporters and yes-men within the federal bureaucracy.

I'm going on the assumption a Dem governor appoints a Dem senator to serve until 2018 anyway, and McCaskill wants to get out of the Senate rather than risk a loss. In that scenario, no net loss in the Senate and Clinton gains a strong female cabinet secretary.

If Koster loses or Missouri senate vacancies don't work that way, forget it.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill Goes Into HRC Cabinet... on: November 03, 2016, 06:14:07 pm
I disagree. This actually makes a whole lot of sense. Clinton and McCaskill get along, and unless she's gifted with an Akin again she is toast in 2018.
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