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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread on: Today at 01:13:48 pm
Quinnipiac

House: 50 D, 40 R (was 52/48 on Aug 3)

Senate: 51 D, 41 R (was 53/39)

52/38 on Aug 3?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MA Dem Primary: Who will try and defeat Baker? on: August 16, 2017, 09:17:33 pm
I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

He's uncharismatic, but that makes him seem authentic and no-drama. He stays out of national Republican politics and cultural battles. He does deals with the legislature. Even though he's made some harsh budget cuts, his personality makes him hard to caricature or demonize. Also, he's exceptionally tall.

Alright, despite those budget cuts is there still a deficit? 

I... think so? We seem to continually have surprise deficits here. Unlike Illinois or NJ, it's an annual occurrence rather than a structural problem that builds up over time.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MA Dem Primary: Who will try and defeat Baker? on: August 16, 2017, 09:06:46 pm
I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

He's uncharismatic, but that makes him seem authentic and no-drama. He stays out of national Republican politics and cultural battles. He does deals with the legislature. Even though he's made some harsh budget cuts, his personality makes him hard to caricature or demonize. Also, he's exceptionally tall.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: One of the best articles I have seen on the GOP and Trump. on: August 16, 2017, 06:50:25 pm
Josh Barro is great to follow on Twitter. No-bullsh**t, sarcastic gay Republican who hates Trump.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 16, 2017, 06:03:02 pm
So are they literally just making districts for one term and then new ones AGAIN?

Two terms, but yeah it's a travesty how long this Court took to work through this case.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: More damaging to president: Katrina or Charlottesville? on: August 16, 2017, 06:00:51 pm
Katrina. Republicans disapprove of incompetence, but Trump's racism is not news.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AL-SEN Megathread: GOP and Dem primaries on August 15th on: August 16, 2017, 08:22:37 am
If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

This logic would have doomed Scott Brown in 2010. He won because a ridiculous number of Dems stayed home while he romped among Indies.

Not saying I'd bet against Moore, but that route exists. Recall that Dems won MS-1, AL-2, and AL-5 in living memory amid terrible conditions for Republicans.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump recover from Charlottesville? on: August 16, 2017, 07:05:17 am
I would love to believe this is the beginning of the end, but history shows he always recovers from things like this with his 40% base as long as it doesn't actively endanger Republican policy goals.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 15, 2017, 05:30:17 pm
Jump to p. 104 here for specific findings.

http://redistricting.lls.edu/files/TX/TX%20perry%2020170815%20order.pdf

No discrimination/unconstitutional mapping found in Houston area or Metroplex because of lack of cohesion between African-American and Hispanic voters.

TX-23 passes muster as a Hispanic opportunity district. But we'll see what remedying TX-35 does here.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: August 15, 2017, 05:26:30 pm
Farenthold's district and Doggett's district. Nothing in Metroplex.

Potential for VRA "bail-in" because of findings on racial discrimination.

Thread on @politicswolf on Twitter.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: If your state lost a district, who would you want combined? on: August 15, 2017, 05:11:12 pm
Put South Boston and Lynch into Capuano's district.
I think Southie is fine in that South Shore district. I grew up there and all our parents were from Southie and Dorchester, so Lynch is a great fit for the area

Oh, I agree, but I read this thread as inviting posters to be jerks toward Congressmen, so that's what I'm doing.

If I were answering seriously, I'd say that Kennedy's district should be divided up among Clark, McGovern, Lynch, and Keating, with Kennedy put in Clark's district.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors Topple Confederate Monument in North Carolina on: August 15, 2017, 04:18:25 pm
It is really remarkable that Americans are now further from achieving Lincoln's dream of national unity than they were in 1890

Yes, the U.S. of 1890 was a paradise of racial equality and unity compared to today. Jeez.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors Topple Confederate Monument in North Carolina on: August 15, 2017, 04:17:12 pm
Durham (or Durham County) would have taken down the statue by now if the state legislature, which is highly gerrymandered to a Republican supermajority, hadn't passed a law making it impossible for local governments to remove confederate monuments without approval from a state historical commission.

But what is your position on how this monument came down?

I'm not a fan.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: August 15, 2017, 12:34:09 pm
Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors Topple Confederate Monument in North Carolina on: August 15, 2017, 10:30:20 am
Durham (or Durham County) would have taken down the statue by now if the state legislature, which is highly gerrymandered to a Republican supermajority, hadn't passed a law making it impossible for local governments to remove confederate monuments without approval from a state historical commission.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump recover from Charlottesville? on: August 15, 2017, 07:13:21 am
Yes, he'll bounce back. We saw this during the campaign with events like the Khans. The support he's lost comes from Republicans, and after a week of this being out of the news they will rally around him once again and push him back into the upper 30s. The only thing that will shake their support is failure on legislative priorities like a tax cut, much as his failure on health care repeal set him back, or a real major crisis that he is unable to handle. 
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: If your state lost a district, who would you want combined? on: August 14, 2017, 08:52:39 pm
Put South Boston and Lynch into Capuano's district.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: Joe Manchin eyed for Energy Secretary on: August 14, 2017, 06:30:24 pm
Wait, this is just right-wingers talking out their asses and he's not actually going to do this, right?

Yes, it's just a nerdy pipe dream triggered by Justice changing parties. No official sign it's real.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 14, 2017, 06:25:01 pm
Trump had a 4-point drop in approval in the West in week of Aug. 7-13 vs. the previous week, a bigger drop than anywhere else in the country. They may be more sensitive to warmongering vs. North Korea!
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 14, 2017, 12:12:36 pm
Sweet sassy molassy!
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? on: August 14, 2017, 10:06:36 am
Thread unlocked.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: August 14, 2017, 09:00:24 am
Definition of a "Some guy"
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-SEN: Rosen in on: August 14, 2017, 08:58:51 am

In which direction?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Flake News! on: August 12, 2017, 07:08:26 am
Please don't reply to trolls. It's easier to keep the thread clean if people report posts instead.--Mod.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 11, 2017, 01:16:54 pm
Gallup (August 10th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-1)
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