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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Rasmussen: Shaheen up 7 on: October 31, 2014, 03:34:38 pm
Brown is the ultimate empty suit.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Emerson College: Coakley heading for defeat on: October 31, 2014, 07:23:29 am
IceSpear is exactly right. Coakley has been running a good campaign this year. The fundamentals favor Baker because he's also running a good campaign. The only Dem to be elected governor since 1986 was able to succeed because he summoned into being a massive power base outside of the Dem hierarchy. You pretty much need to do that to succeed against a party all too happy to work with a reasonable Republican, especially against a woman.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine or Warner as VP? on: October 29, 2014, 08:18:55 am
Clinton-Warner would plumb new depths in young people's voter turnout.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac - Ernst up 4 on: October 29, 2014, 07:57:03 am
Does anyone else find these numbers don't make any sense with the Republicans doing comparatively well on the early ballot requests and returns? The only way Braley is up by huge numbers in early voting is if he's also winning independents widely. Which seems unlikely based on the headline numbers.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 29, 2014, 07:55:30 am
New Hampshire may be doing that thing New Hampshire does when it decides to vote for the opposite party for the hell of it. New Hampshire elects everything at the same time and is prone to wild swings. Polls suggest D wins for Shaheen and Kuster, tossup for CSP. If someone says something stupid or the winds blow the wrong way, I could see the GOP could pickup any combination of the 3, and also the state legislature. Again, that's dependent on more mini-Akins or 1 big Akin in the last week.

This. It wouldn't surprise me if Shaheen and both reps lost on Election Day, but it would be shocking.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SD-SurveyUSA: Another poll with Rounds up by double-digits on: October 28, 2014, 11:50:43 am
What a weird interlude that was.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 28, 2014, 08:59:31 am
I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

I'm no Pollyanna, but Republican turnout may be an irrelevant measure. If Orman and Davis win, it will be with large numbers of registered Republicans.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama Vs. Reagan! on: October 28, 2014, 07:06:40 am
With AIDS, it had already become a major disaster for gays in the U.S. by the early 80s, but at that time we weren't considered relevant victims for "real" Americans. Reagan didn't mention AIDS until 1986, I think, which was several years into the epidemic.

Reagan's response to Legionnaire's Disease demonstrated the government could move swiftly and loudly on a public health scare, even a trivial one, if the victims were significant.

Dems weren't much better than Reagan at the time. The hero was C. Everett Koop, a conservative Reagan appointee for Surgeon General who stepped up and did his job.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 28, 2014, 06:16:30 am
Quote
Look inside
Look inside your tiny mind
Now look a bit harder
'Cause we're so uninspired, so sick and tired of all the hatred you harbor

So you say
It's not okay to be gay
Well I think you're just evil
You're just some racist who can't tie my laces
Your point of view is medieval

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause we hate what you do
And we hate your whole crew
So please don't stay in touch

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause your words don't translate
And it's getting quite late
So please don't stay in touch

Do you get
Do you get a little kick out of being slow-minded?
You want to be like your father
It's approval you're after
Well that's not how you find it

Do you
Do you really enjoy living a life that's so hateful?
'Cause there's a hole where your soul should be
You're losing control of it and it's really distasteful

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause we hate what you do
And we hate your whole crew
So please don't stay in touch

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause your words don't translate and it's getting quite late
So please don't stay in touch

 you,  you,  you,
 you,  you,  you,
 you

You say, you think we need to go to war
Well you're already in one,
'Cause its people like you
That need to get slew
No one wants your opinion

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause we hate what you do
And we hate your whole crew
So please don't stay in touch

 you
 you very, very much
'Cause your words don't translate and it's getting quite late
So please don't stay in touch

 you,  you,  you
 you,  you,  you
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 28, 2014, 06:14:12 am
...and we've quite a cameo on our hands, brothers and sisters.

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: UT-04: BYU: Owens leads (!) on: October 28, 2014, 06:07:21 am
I'll be disappointed if Love loses, honestly, because there'd only be one reason for it in a district this R and it's nothing any American should cheer.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MA: Boston Globe endorses Baker for Governor on: October 27, 2014, 05:57:52 am
The Globe has a new owner, John Henry. It wouldn't surprise me if that causes more idiosyncratic endorsements than in the past.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 26, 2014, 08:54:15 pm
Hardly a shocking statement to make if one is familiar with Christian doctrine and teachings on the subject.

It's obnoxious because Steve King is not really a role model for compassionate, selfless behavior who should go around casting stones. Comments like this were completely ordinary into the 1990s and 2000s but the world has changed so much that one wonders what the point is of an elected official making a statement like this. I don't really care what his religious views are, but here he's just trying to relive some Republican fun of the 1990s at the expense of gays.

I believe he was asked about his religious views on this question, and thus he gave them.  

If Steve King were asked if he expects to see Jews in Heaven, he certainly would not have said "Not going to happen, they haven't accepted Jesus Christ as their savior." Even if that were his religious view. He'd have avoided the question. Why do you suppose that is different?

The newspaper asked him his view about gays because he frequently bloviates about gays (when not talking about immigrants running drugs or escorting ISIS in) and will say things that put him in rare company with Michele Bachmann and Louie Gohmert.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 26, 2014, 05:04:54 pm
Hardly a shocking statement to make if one is familiar with Christian doctrine and teachings on the subject.

It's obnoxious because Steve King is not really a role model for compassionate, selfless behavior who should go around casting stones. Comments like this were completely ordinary into the 1990s and 2000s but the world has changed so much that one wonders what the point is of an elected official making a statement like this. I don't really care what his religious views are, but here he's just trying to relive some Republican fun of the 1990s at the expense of gays.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 24, 2014, 05:04:45 pm
It has Parnell leading Walker narrowly, too.

I think Hellenthal may be the new gold standard for polling!
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 24, 2014, 12:24:36 pm
Louie Gohmert must have felt a disturbance in the force because he went out and made a more ridiculous comment:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/louie-gohmert-gays-military-massages
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 24, 2014, 11:46:56 am
I'm so bummed about this.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/steve-king-i-dont-expect-to-meet-gays-in-heaven
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Nunn now favored to win election night on: October 24, 2014, 11:08:56 am
This is like the run-up to Obama winning North Carolina in 2008. So hard to see it could happen, and there it was. I'm not saying Nunn is a lock to win but it never seemed conceivable before.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: ARG: Shaheen +1 on: October 23, 2014, 02:16:05 pm
For reference, Shaheen led 53-43 in their September 29th poll.

This is going to be close - I'll give Shaheen the edge unless we start seeing more polls that have Brown up, but a Brown win wouldn't come as a big surprise. I think this race is more likely to flip than North Carolina.

I agree. A surprise win by Brown would be the least surprising surprise I can imagine, honestly. NH can swing tremendously from election to election. Tillis winning but not Brown would surprise me more.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem a sock of krazen? on: October 21, 2014, 05:23:18 am
Okay seriously Torie should be an AP English teacher

Torie being a unionized teacher in New York would be a beautiful thing.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP: Hagan +3 on: October 21, 2014, 05:20:43 am
While anything is technically possible, I can't imagine a world where national mood the Republicans pick up the Senate, but NC elects a Democrat. Something has got to give.

It's a world where African American voters turn out in high numbers for a midterm election but the rest of the Obama coalition falls off and independents don't turn out.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 03:36:37 pm
How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 02:59:39 pm
Backtored, he's a troll.

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.


Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 18, 2014, 10:58:16 am
2002 was also the one unequivocally good Republican year he ran in since Kentucky shifted so heavily to the Rs. At least in 1996, Clinton could keep it competitive. Bruce Lunsford wasn't a better candidate than Lois Combs Weinberg.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 10:55:32 am
Perhaps I'm in the minority, but I haven't been and am still not really worried about Braley losing this race. He's been such a terrible candidate and Iowa is so elastic that if he were in any real danger of losing, it would be more evident at this point.

What do you make of most of the polls showing Ernst up? Also, the Koch bros. (AFP) appear to be matching the Dems in driving up early votes.
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