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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the first debate? on: Today at 05:43:25 am
Clinton, but it might not make a difference. 

Do you think we are heading toward a 1980-style realignment?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Enthusiasm on: September 27, 2016, 04:01:08 pm
Not any more enthusiastic, but still just as enthusiastic a Clinton supporter. Her debate performance is an example of exactly why I've enthusiastically supported her since the primaries were over.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Totally wrong debate predictions mockery thread on: September 27, 2016, 03:59:18 pm
Does anyone think either candidate actually helped themselves?

Yes, Clinton did what she needed to to win over a sizable chunk of people who reject Trump but weren't won over to her, particularly young people. A lot of the tightening recently has involved her losing "soft" support while Trump hovered below a ceiling. Trump helped her a great deal. 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Totally wrong debate predictions mockery thread on: September 27, 2016, 05:55:10 am
Hackish.  You guys are the first ones to proudly tout online polls when Hillary wins them. The min trump wins one , its considered "trash ".    Its all hogwash anyhow, but as i stated the the other thread rubio won just about all the media narrative after each debate and couldn't muster any votes.

These are all alt-right nutjob sites, right Mike?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3809204/Most-snap-polls-Trump-winning-debate-landslide.html

TIL that the Daily Mail doesn't know what a snap poll is.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Debate Media Spin/Focus Group/Poll Megathread on: September 26, 2016, 10:44:28 pm
Lots of Republicans not answering their phones for pollsters tonight.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-TargetSmart/William & Mary: Clinton +3 on: September 26, 2016, 04:07:00 pm
We have reached a point where a Clinton lead in Ohio looks like an outlier. Sad!
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: David Plouffe: Clinton campaign confident about FL/CO/PA/VA from internal data on: September 26, 2016, 10:38:20 am
Of course, they have to say that they're confident they'll win the election, but what's interesting about these kinds of statements is the state they do and don't mention. It's interesting that they mentioned Florida, but not North Carolina or Ohio. They didn't mention Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire either, but that might be because those states are smaller.

That's a really good point. It's easy to believe they are confident in the states they mention while being down on Ohio and Iowa.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Bloomberg: Trump +2 (4 way) tied (2 way) on: September 26, 2016, 06:01:14 am
I fear for the future of this country. Hatred and idiocy has taken hold.

People really need to calm the f*** down.

I don't see why...if anything you should be freaking out. Colorado and Pennsylvania are now basically tied occording to CNN polls out this morning.

Debate is tonight and presents an opportunity for a big change, so there's no point in panicking.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: September 24, 2016, 03:28:56 pm
Is it so different from 1964? Goldwater wasn't considered vulgar or a con man, but people thought he'd start World War III.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS: Donald Trump ups ad spending to $140M, expands into 3 more states on: September 24, 2016, 03:19:45 pm
lol where is Trump going to get $140 million??

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: September 24, 2016, 11:21:50 am
Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS: Donald Trump ups ad spending to $140M, expands into 3 more states on: September 24, 2016, 10:19:05 am
Good thing this ad time is much more expensive than if he'd bought it months ago.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist C+7 on: September 23, 2016, 08:19:53 am
The white share of the electorate probably isn't declining by 5% in one election. 70% seems more realistic.

Agreed.  I think it might be as high as 72% just like 2012 given likely lower AA turnout and higher low educated White turnout.   

One would expect college-educated White turnout to drop significantly. A lot of those Romney voters who can't vote for Trump, won't come out for Clinton or Johnson.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way on: September 21, 2016, 12:47:49 pm
This shouldn't be unexpected given how far Iowa has swung. Still part of the freiwal.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Trump +2 on: September 21, 2016, 09:39:33 am
Clinton's favorability with undecideds is 10/75.
Trump's is 0/79.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL - St Leo University: Clinton +5 on: September 20, 2016, 04:19:12 pm
Clinton down 9 wow. Trump has to be leading if St. Leo is showing it close
Or the previous poll was just, um, bad. As is this one.

To be fair to Classic, they have been unusually pro-Clinton in every poll. However, I also don't think you can just add Trump +7 and call it a day. Add it to the average, and assume Trump has some stinkers in his column too.

Eh, considering the extent of their past pro-Clinton skew, I actually don't think 7 points is a bad estimate of the "house effect" for this poll.

Rubio +16, though?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5 on: September 20, 2016, 12:26:34 pm
The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.
And it could be Trump +1

Also true.

Clinton +9 in Florida would be an outlier. If we assume Clinton's recovering, as it looks like she is, Clinton +5 is a reasonable result. If she's not recovering and the race is still Clinton +1/2 nationally, with Trump having big problems with Hispanics, Clinton +5 looks like outer edge of reasonable range.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5 on: September 20, 2016, 12:23:41 pm
The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: September 15, 2016, 09:52:03 am
Monmouth has an IA poll today.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: Arizona 2018 Senate Primary on: September 14, 2016, 08:50:51 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245577.0
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 10:45:58 am
Well, either this poll has picked up a rather significant and recent shift in party ID and enthusiasm in Ohio favoring Republicans and hurting Democrats, or it's an outlier. Too early to say.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP: Clinton +3 on: September 12, 2016, 04:36:34 pm
No four-way numbers oddly enough.

Seeing as Jill Stein isn't even on the ballot as an official write-in, the most it would hopefully be is a three-way.

None of these Candidates is 4th in Nevada.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT: Dan Jones & Associates, SEP. 1-9, Trump +15 on: September 12, 2016, 11:15:26 am
Is there any chance of Hillary coming in third (or maybe even fourth) in Utah?

The Dem base in Utah has a solid floor. It's not very high, but it's very different from the majority of the state.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton: Half of Trump’s supporters fit in ‘basket of deplorables’ on: September 10, 2016, 05:41:33 pm
Will this overshadow Gilmore's endorsement?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll on: September 07, 2016, 08:05:30 am
Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.
LOL, just stop this embarrassing. Chuck Todd lied.

It's more like from 36% (in 2012) to 39% (in CNN LV poll).

I'm sorry if this was documented further up the thread—can you point out to me where Chuck Todd's math was debunked? Thanks.

Note that the trend for % of non-college-educated whites is that it continually decreases as a share of the population as both education levels and diversity rises. Trump would need to get a relative surge in this population's votes just to hold steady at 2012 levels, much less reverse. 
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