Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 09:10:33 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 512
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 on: Today at 08:12:42 am
WAA is always bad and Republican-leaning.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: does bushie represent the average oklahoman? on: August 31, 2014, 05:02:26 pm
No, because he's supporting Chris Christie (or was). Tongue

I still am, actually.  I believe the scandals that Christie has faced have been mostly manufactured by the liberals.  Same goes with Rick Perry's indictment.  It's all a liberal witch hunt trying to tilt the 2016 odds in their favor.

How might the bridge scandal have been manufactured by liberals?
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do any regions in Estonia or Latvia want to break away and join Russia? on: August 30, 2014, 06:24:07 pm
For what it's worth, Estonia's Jewish community in 1941 was tiny and half fled east before the Germans arrived, so it is unjustified to lump in the experience of Estonia with that of Latvia and Lithuania, which had very large Jewish communities wiped out during the war.

(One reason that Macmillan's crack about "Old Estonians" in Thatcher's cabinet wasn't quite as clever as it sounds.)
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SD: PPP: Rounds lead at six in poll for Weiland on: August 30, 2014, 07:48:16 am
ND was a surprise, this race may very well come to being, alsofor Dems.

Not in 2014, it can't.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Baker pulls ahead in Massachusetts on: August 30, 2014, 07:44:00 am
Competent Republican in the high 30s makes a lot of sense. There is a high republican floor for state races here.

Controversial Democrat in a competitive primary in the high 30s also makes sense.

The undecideds are not a favorable pool for Baker. He can win this, but a 1 point lead with high undecideds is basically meaningless except to indicate his viability.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Baptist church's "conversion therapy" consisted of weekly sexual assaults on: August 29, 2014, 03:59:43 pm
The difference is, Obama's joke was actually a joke.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 29, 2014, 08:56:43 am
Naso has a good point about not feeling well-informed about the case. Here's another example where we don't have all the facts to pass judgment:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/27/victor-white-shooting_n_5721728.html?utm_source=theatlantic.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange

Quote
Victor White's Family Disputes Claim That Handcuffed Man Killed Himself


The attorney representing the family of Victor White III -- a 22-year-old man who authorities claim shot and killed himself while locked in a patrol car with his hands cuffed behind him -- says police are not only responsible for his death but launched a cover-up immediately afterwards.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pennsylvania will be expanding medicaid (sort of) on: August 29, 2014, 06:08:21 am
Congrats, Phil.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Baker pulls ahead in Massachusetts on: August 28, 2014, 09:10:43 pm

The primary is on Sept. 9.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: August 28, 2014, 01:05:09 pm
Lunch time.  This has been a really good day so far.  I'm ready to get off at 1630 and watch football at 1700.

Great. It is good to hear things are going well.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sean Trende: Will 2014 Midterms Be a Wave Election? on: August 28, 2014, 11:41:40 am
For me, the question is whether a Republican would win narrowly in an open-seat race for Senate in a state like Illinois, Oregon, or Massachusetts. Too early to say for sure but it certainly looks like no.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? on: August 28, 2014, 11:38:26 am
I think MT would have been Lean D. Montana voters are pretty elastic and he's survived before.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative on: August 27, 2014, 12:22:31 pm
Two words: Auto Bailouts

Toledo is an auto manufacturing town and a pretty blue collar one at that. Virtually all of its upscale suburbs are quite Republican, but it doesn't have many upscale suburbs.

Yeah. I had mentally marked that as a 2008-only phenomenon like McCain's collapse in Michigan, but apparently it didn't recede in 2012.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: August 26, 2014, 04:11:49 pm
does anyone else think this is just too good to be true?

Yeah, sometimes I worry we'll get bad news out of the blue. But you have to admit, this is the kind of job he should have at the right kind of office.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 01:14:52 pm
Why did the cop wait 6 years to "exercise his power"?

Because even cops who have a bad relationship with the communities they police, aren't setting out to kill people.

In case it isn't clear, I do not assume or have any reason to believe that Darren Wilson is a cold-blooded killer who set out to kill someone. You don't have to believe that of a police office to envision scenarios where the police kills someone without justification and without real risk to themselves, especially in a community like Ferguson.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 11:52:29 am

Again, that's an oversimplification of what some are claiming happened.  Do you know that Brown didn't assault the police officer?

I believe it is very unlikely he assaulted the police officer, especially considering how the police officer described it. To believe he would do so, is to believe he was colossally reckless and dangerous in his behavior and would do something virtually suicidal for no good reason.

Inks, you may not be aware of this, but African-American men are used to being stopped by police all the time, in a way you and I aren't, and have been taught from a young age to respond in a "no trouble" way as clearly as they can. I'm pretty sure Michael Brown's mother said that's how he was raised, too. Also note that this encounter happened during day time, the policeman was not aware, as you are, that he shoplifted cigarrillos and pushed the store owner and so was a dangerous criminal who is responsible for any violence done to him, so there's no reason for Brown to feel he was being targeted and needed to attack first.

Let's take the other side. Let's say the cop shot Michael Brown in a situation different from what he described. Wouldn't you say he has an incentive to make it sound as if he were in danger of his life?

In conclusion, looking at the incentives, Brown had no reason to attack the cop and the cop has incentives to a) exercise his power and then b) muddy the waters about what happened. It's become *abundantly* clear in the last few weeks that the police have a very bad relationship with the black residents of Ferguson, too. If you think it's 50/50, he said/he said, that's sick. Sorry.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 11:48:21 am
I'm not but the implication of even bringing up the cigar stealing incident, which has been confirmed to have been unrelated to the incident in the street, is that this is a bad, violent criminal and therefore shooting him could be justified.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 11:47:45 am

If he attacked the cop, he deserves to get shot.  If he didn't, the cop should spend a long long time in jail.

Do you believe that Brown attacked the cop? Do you put the odds at very likely it happened as the cop said, exactly 50/50 because "it's the cop's word vs. the eyewitnesses, too bad Michael Brown isn't here to disagree", or something else?
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 11:46:26 am
The author never assaulted a police officer, which Brown has also been alleged to have done

You appreciate this is a permanent circular logic issue with people killed by police, right? It's virtually certain that the police will note that they felt under assault, and then people will cite that to justify other things.

Honestly, Inks, do you believe Brown assaulted the police officer by diving into the car and trying to grab his gun? Do you think this is more likely, as likely, or less likely than the eyewitness accounts that he didn't?
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 10:20:23 am
You missed hand waving away the part about physically assaulting a shop owner.

I saw the video of the push, yeah, and I don't agree this is unusual or means he should get the death penalty for an unrelated event, sorry.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 26, 2014, 06:10:17 am
I'm guessing most people don't rob stores, physically hassle store owners and physically attack a cop when they are "teens".  The closest most of them get is just impotently whinging about cops on the internet.

"Physically attack a cop" is contested at best, and most likely not accurate.

I remember my brother and friends stealing candy from the local convenience store. No one cared.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative on: August 25, 2014, 08:23:42 pm
Are those numbers from 2008 or 2012? I feel like Toledo being so high is an artifact of Obama's incredible performance in NW Ohio in 2008.

It appears that most of the Toledo metro area trended Dem in 2012.



Huh. Looks like I have to revise my sense of how Dem Toledo is.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative on: August 25, 2014, 04:18:23 pm
Are those numbers from 2008 or 2012? I feel like Toledo being so high is an artifact of Obama's incredible performance in NW Ohio in 2008.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Tufts study: Young vote key in 2014 races on: August 25, 2014, 10:45:19 am
Those Arkansas numbers are shocking. It looks less like young Arkansans are much more Republican than their elders, than that they're checked out of the political process.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins control? on: August 24, 2014, 02:14:32 pm
Lean GOP, with high variability. Right now the Dems lose SD, WV, and MT, are only even odds in AR, LA, NC, and AK (yes, Alaska will tighten up), and there's too much risk baked into IA and CO to feel comfortable. Match that against GA which is too inelastic to let Nunn win and KY, where Grimes is even odds to win, and I feel Dems need more breaks than Republicans to finish up even.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 512


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines