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April 30, 2017, 12:19:10 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 runoff poll on: April 27, 2017, 09:49:57 pm
I suppose I don't see any reason Dem enthusiasm should drop before the runoff. It's so not a typical Georgia runoff or typical Georgia year.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TrumpCare comes back from the dead thread on: April 27, 2017, 09:38:54 pm
I admit, when Ryan said he supported Trump because "he'll sign the bills we send him" as a Democrat I found that terrifying and depressingly plausible.

The reality has been much more fun.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 runoff poll on: April 27, 2017, 08:38:39 am
Handel, probably 56-44.

I'm curious about your reasoning here. This presumes that either a number of Ossoff voters drop out between the primary and the runoff, or that Handel consolidates the votes all other Republicans got *and* brings in new voters, or both.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-7 2018: Is Rep. Leonard Lance vulnerable? on: April 26, 2017, 03:12:29 pm
Let's see if Congress votes to remove the income tax deduction for state and local taxes. Lance and Frelinghuysen could get Blanched.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOOP: White House readies executive order on withdrawing from NAFTA on: April 26, 2017, 11:34:04 am
What substantial accomplishment can an EO do about NAFTA? It's a legally-binding treaty. Is he going to guide his Commerce Secretary to think about ways to make it a better deal and then declare victory?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: April 25, 2017, 03:23:35 pm
VA-10 (Comstock, R): Dorothy McAuliffe (D), wife of Gov. Terry McAuliffe, is weighing a run.

Oh for the love of God
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors confront politicians at town halls megathread on: April 25, 2017, 10:53:37 am
It's amazing what 1%ers like George Soros can do.  Good luck getting them to the polls next time.

Welcome to the Atlas Forum!

hasn't he already been banned

Sorry, I didn't realize I was necroposting...
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Congratulates Veteran for Receiving the Purple Heart on: April 25, 2017, 10:02:38 am
Do you really think this shows trump does not respect the military, a group he won by 30+?

Trump pretty clearly has no understanding of military service, but understands well that many of his voters served in the military or strongly support the military and tried to play to that. Remember "I like people who aren't captured"?
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors confront politicians at town halls megathread on: April 25, 2017, 08:37:58 am
It's amazing what 1%ers like George Soros can do.  Good luck getting them to the polls next time.

Welcome to the Atlas Forum!
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lawsuit filed over Georgia mid-decade redistricting in 2015 on: April 25, 2017, 07:18:49 am
These people came up, or in some cases were part of, a political culture in which this was perfectly acceptable and often done in many Southern states as part of the ancestral Democratic control.

I wish I could disagree as I do with most to quoque arguments about redistricting, but looking at what happened in NC, TX, and now GA it does seem like a reversion to the norm. There is not a sense of democracy as a virtue in itself, and you have essentially the same slice of society behaving the same way as 50-60 years ago but with different party labels.

You have seen this historically in some northern cities, but not recently.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Where do you think 2018 will rank in the most unfavorable midterm rankings on: April 25, 2017, 07:15:01 am
I am thinking somewhere in the mid-twenties.

Sorry, not this year.

What do you think is going to hurt Dem enthusiasm most—Trump's sky-high approval ratings, the completion of the wall with Mexico, or all the legislation he's gotten passed to "make America great again"?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 25, 2017, 07:13:17 am
Now that he has been outed as a far-left type, though

Welcome to Atlas!
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 24, 2017, 03:06:41 pm
Ossoff just challenged Handel to six debates before the runoff.

Huh. I have to suppress my reaction that this is what likely losers do and just take it at face value.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-24: Katko considering running for NY AG on: April 24, 2017, 12:43:11 pm
His odds at winning AG in a Trump mid-term election are close to zero, anyway.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Nightmare Scenario for Florida’s Coastal Homeowners on: April 21, 2017, 08:50:30 am
Quote
Tidal flooding now predictably drenches inland streets, even when the sun is out, thanks to the region’s porous limestone bedrock.
I don't know a lot about tides, but I know enough to know this makes no sense.  There are a little less than two "high" tides per day, it doesn't matter if the sun is up or not.

(note, I'm not saying the sun doesn't play a role in tides, I'm saying the sun being up or not doesn't tell if you the current tide is a "high" one)

I'm pretty sure the contrast is with rainy days that swell flooding, rather than with nighttime. People find flooding during a rainstorm less inexplicable than flooding beneath the sun.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-Sen: Mitt Romney is exploring 2018 Senate run on: April 21, 2017, 08:39:37 am
Romney's flip-flop hurt people (including me, personally) who were excluded from the legal protections of marriage to boost his own career. Clinton's and Obama's "flip-flops" brought legal relief and protection to tens of thousands, ultimately millions of people who suffered from that exclusion. I can't shut my eyes and ears to the moral content of their decisions.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-Sen: Mitt Romney is exploring 2018 Senate run on: April 21, 2017, 08:34:25 am
Generally, when flip-flopping for electoral convenience, it makes sense to switch from a position that is less popular to one that is more popular.

But it's also true that a change of heart is usually from a position that is less popular to one that is more popular. How can you distinguish the two?

Quote
Quote
Flip-flopping on gay rights from "I'm for them" in Massachusetts 2002 to "I'm against them" in South Carolina in 2007 is really different.

Not really, see above. You just happen to approve of one switch and disapprove of another.

Literally hundreds of millions of Americans have switched their views from against gay rights to for gay rights in my adult lifetime (I am 40). The number who have switched in the other direction I can probably count on one hand, and usually it's because of a personal trauma. Romney's flip-flop is evaluated against that background.

I'm a gay man in Massachusetts who personally struggled against Mitt Romney's campaign against same-sex marriage from 2003-2006 through brutal fights in the legislature. So, yes, I have a stronger opinion on his change from "gay rights are ok" to "we must defend traditional marriage/hey South Carolina vote Romney '08!" than your average change because it's personal to me and I saw up-close how cynical and callous he was being.

Since Romney's backwardness on gay rights probably contributed to his loss in 2012, I can say I heartily approve of it in one sense. Smiley

Quote
So Romney went from "I'm for them" to "I'm against them" (citation needed, as I highly doubt Romney ever actually said that he was against gays), but Obama "dialed back his support for gay rights"? Sounds like a double standard.

I voted for Clinton over Obama in the 2008 primaries because I mistrusted Obama's cynicism on gay rights, in fact. Google Donnie McClurkin.

Clinton was cynical as well, but at least everyone knew that and there was no scope to be disappointed.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-Sen: Mitt Romney is exploring 2018 Senate run on: April 21, 2017, 08:29:59 am
Obama can be understood. But Clinton is as bad if not worse than Romney.

Oh there's plenty of criticism to be made of Clinton. I didn't intend this to apply beyond gay rights.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary) on: April 21, 2017, 07:33:49 am
This district Bishop originally ran in 25 years ago was majority African-American, I believe, and incumbency has helped him avoid challengers as the minority share of the population dipped into the 40s. It's not really comparable to SC-5.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-Sen: Mitt Romney is exploring 2018 Senate run on: April 21, 2017, 07:30:55 am
I truly despise Romney - not just because of his embrace of horrifying policies, not just because of his record as a corporate leech, but because of his moral weaknesses in that he could change his views on abortion and gay rights and a host of other issues at age 60 on a dime because it's more electable to do so.

Did not Obama, Biden, Clinton, et. al. all change their views on gay rights for much the same reasons?

A very large share of Americans have changed their personal views on gay rights to become more accepting, and this reflects cultural changes that made people reexamine old beliefs. For Obama and Clinton, electoral calculations figured in (as it does for every politician) but in broad outlines it's nothing more than loads of people over 30 have done.

Flip-flopping on gay rights from "I'm for them" in Massachusetts 2002 to "I'm against them" in South Carolina in 2007 is really different.

To you original point, Obama did dial back his support for gay rights from the mid-90s when he ran for office in the 2000s... but that would make his 2012 pivot seem more authentic because he expressed those views 20 years earlier.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump missed promised deadline on cyber-security team on: April 20, 2017, 01:33:01 pm
What does Rudy Giuliani know about cybersecurity? Is this because of 9/11 and "security"?
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What are the most over and under rated demographic trends today? on: April 20, 2017, 12:23:54 pm
Reading the above chart, 89% of Americans claiming they still believe in God is higher than I remembered. I don't know how meaningful it is, but as a headline number it would explain why this trend isn't being reported.

Being Jewish, I have a front row seat to one of the groups where this trend is most advanced.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What are the most over and under rated demographic trends today? on: April 20, 2017, 12:22:14 pm
Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.



Most of such people were already thoroughly secular, now it's just being formalized.

The study I'm thinking of dives into specifics that make a compelling case.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/11/03/u-s-public-becoming-less-religious/

24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What are the most over and under rated demographic trends today? on: April 20, 2017, 12:13:11 pm
Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.

Overrated:
What assumption wasn't turned over by Trump's success in the primaries and general in 2016?

25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grassley: "I would expect a resignation (SCOTUS) this summer." on: April 20, 2017, 09:20:11 am
If that were happening then the judge retiring would ask for his/her clerk number to be smaller which didn't happen

Did O'Connor do this before she retired?


No, but the circumstances were somewhat unusual. Typically, judges planning retirement do eschew picking new clerks.

Makes sense. I had a vague memory that she didn't do this and it was unusual.
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