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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: California Senate Primary on: May 11, 2016, 05:35:21 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236520.0
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win Orange County? on: May 08, 2016, 10:53:31 am
Yes, Trump will do well with people who feel economically left behind in poor areas or socially left behind in diverse and prosperous areas, and Orange County has moved too far from that coalition to give Trump a majority here.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Two-way partisan registration by county, 2015-2016 on: May 03, 2016, 08:07:25 am
GOP gains Pinellas... in Florida

Well, that seems unsuspected. I thought this was a Republican county ages ago that has only been drifting Dem. What's the history in Pinellas?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada voter registrations: Dems overwhelming GOP on: May 02, 2016, 09:16:08 pm
I can't imagine what or whose candidacy could be motivating so many new voters to register as Democrats in states like Nevada and California.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: April 29, 2016, 10:10:36 am
Quote
GOPer: Clinton Will 'Go Down Like Monica Lewinsky' Debating Trump

A Florida GOP official said that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would "go down like Monica Lewinsky" if she debated Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.

Bob Sutton, chairman of the Broward County GOP Executive Committee, suggested Clinton would be easy to debate in the general election.

I think when Donald Trump debates Hillary Clinton shes going to go down like Monica Lewinsky, Sutton told the Post.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/florida-republican-clinton-down-like-lewinsky
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Terri Bonoff running against Erik Paulsen (R-MN) on: April 25, 2016, 09:56:31 am
Wave insurance. If Trump is a disaster, seats like this fall, regardless of Paulsen's quality.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton begins VP search (NYT) on: April 23, 2016, 03:27:23 pm
I could see Clinton choosing a woman, the same way her husband "doubled down" against the conventional wisdom by picking another moderate Southerner as his Veep.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 21, 2016, 10:52:32 pm
Funny, but some undecided Republicans will end up voting for Trump after all is said and done.

But the swing/trend would be enormous with Trump.

The trend in Utah from Romney 2012 to Trump 2016 could be the largest gap in any state in many decades.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 09:48:40 pm
Republicans averaging 5 votes per precinct in the Bronx.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-04: Crenshaw retires on: April 13, 2016, 08:44:59 am
71 years old, can't blame him for wanting to retire.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Carolina Overturns LGBT-Discrimination Bans on: April 08, 2016, 11:37:51 am
What I find funny, is all of these business and people coming out saying they are leaving  NC is how  hypocritical they are. Their business and such were in NC the week before  Charlotte passed the law. So what has changed from the time before this whole deal happen? To my understanding, and I could be wrong, but nothing right?

Whether you're progressing or regressing on rights matters as much as where you are now. This is pushing back against regression, and also serves as a warning to other states not to pass these laws.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "One man, one vote" upheld by unanimous Supreme Court on: April 04, 2016, 01:41:03 pm
What a misleading trash title. No one argued against one man, one vote - they just argued about the precise definition.

Of "one"?
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / "One man, one vote" upheld by unanimous Supreme Court on: April 04, 2016, 10:17:06 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/scotus-evenwel-decision

The case, Evenwel v. Abbott, contested the counting of people not eligible to vote (non-citizens, kids) for legislative redistricting. This would have been a massive impact on TX's redistricting.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth by State (2010 to 2015) on: April 04, 2016, 08:08:51 am
What's going on in New Mexico? A state neighboring Texas, Colorado, and Utah is doing almost as poorly as my home state. Why isn't it growing?

High poverty rate, low levels of education (other than Ph.Ds), climate isn't as warm as places like Arizona or Texas.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why hasn't Elizabeth Warren endorsed Bernie? on: April 03, 2016, 08:15:49 am
Leverage I guess?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: George Mason University to Rename Law School after Antonin Scalia on: April 02, 2016, 11:01:18 am
Great news. Scalia was a Supreme Court Justice for like 30 years, he is by far one of the most influential jurists ever in the U.S. It is very fitting to honor such a man, I mean we do have Brandeis after all. And they waited until Scalia died so there really is nothing improper, other than "blah blah gays blah blah I'm liberal."

Indeed, for longevity on the Court and influence on historic decisions, he's nearly as historic a figure as Roger Taney (28 years as chief justice) and his rulings and place in history will be similarly reviewed.

It's great that the school is getting $20m in exchange for the renaming, however they are setting themselves up for an ugly debate in the future when students lobby to have his name removed as they protest now against monuments honoring former slaveholders or Confederate leaders.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump is going to have enormous difficulty filling his VP slot.... on: March 29, 2016, 08:24:48 pm
Omarosa.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What laws would President Clinton and a Democratic Congress pass? on: March 22, 2016, 08:03:35 am
Would Schumer nuke the filibuster? I think he will have to.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What laws would President Clinton and a Democratic Congress pass? on: March 22, 2016, 07:21:15 am
Let's face it, Clinton is the odds-on favorite to become our next President, Senate control could easily go to the Dems, and the geography of votes is so volatile that she could even have a Democratic House of Representatives to work with.

This trifecta would be highly aware of the time limit on their hegemony, with no reason to think 2018 wouldn't look like 2010 or 2014.

What laws would they pass in the meantime?

I think a Voting Rights Act to replace what was overturned by the conservative majority on SCOTUS and to guarantee a right to vote to citizens is a very likely early law.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton on: March 22, 2016, 07:17:52 am
Do you wish to be able to trust Hillary Clinton because of the allegations that have come out against her. you voted against her on March the 1st. you honestly don't think that she's trustworthy. She should not be elected. you don't trust her to be in The White House. you wouldn't even trust her to be the mayor of your town. you dread the future if she becomes President?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign on: March 18, 2016, 02:50:35 pm
If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

You have to account for how far the white college vote drops for him compared to Romney, and also whether the white non-college women fleeing his misogyny cancel out the white non-college male vote going up for him.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign on: March 18, 2016, 02:45:40 pm
I love talk about how Trump starts with all of Romney's voters and then just adds more "white guys" on top of that to swamp Hillary.

His Pyrrhic success in the Republican primary is obscuring how completely toxic he is outside of it. Dude's got an approval rating of 35% and for every angry non-voter he pulls into his coalition, he kicks out two Republicans who'd never dream of voting for Hillary.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 08:52:44 pm
Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

Gadsden county is 56% African-American; it may well be Sanders' worst county in Florida.

I will now accept my accolades.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 06:40:27 pm
I wonder if Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina still tune into the live results on the web, clicking refresh to see their votes come in in ones and twos.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 08:17:33 am
Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

Gadsden county is 56% African-American; it may well be Sanders' worst county in Florida.
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