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October 22, 2014, 10:26:27 am
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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem a sock of krazen? on: October 21, 2014, 05:23:18 am
Okay seriously Torie should be an AP English teacher

Torie being a unionized teacher in New York would be a beautiful thing.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP: Hagan +3 on: October 21, 2014, 05:20:43 am
While anything is technically possible, I can't imagine a world where national mood the Republicans pick up the Senate, but NC elects a Democrat. Something has got to give.

It's a world where African American voters turn out in high numbers for a midterm election but the rest of the Obama coalition falls off and independents don't turn out.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 03:36:37 pm
How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 02:59:39 pm
Backtored, he's a troll.

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.


Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 18, 2014, 10:58:16 am
2002 was also the one unequivocally good Republican year he ran in since Kentucky shifted so heavily to the Rs. At least in 1996, Clinton could keep it competitive. Bruce Lunsford wasn't a better candidate than Lois Combs Weinberg.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 10:55:32 am
Perhaps I'm in the minority, but I haven't been and am still not really worried about Braley losing this race. He's been such a terrible candidate and Iowa is so elastic that if he were in any real danger of losing, it would be more evident at this point.

What do you make of most of the polls showing Ernst up? Also, the Koch bros. (AFP) appear to be matching the Dems in driving up early votes.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 17, 2014, 09:20:42 pm
We're going to have a new attorney general this year.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 05:56:06 pm

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/10/no-theres-still-no-evidence-there-was-active-wmd-program-iraq

It's not a revelation that Iraq had chemical weapons in the 1980s.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-02: With Terry (R) down in the polls, Republicans getting desparate on: October 17, 2014, 03:29:53 pm
Let's not forget, Obama won this district in 2008.

The legislature made it a tad more Republican after the census. I don't think he would have won it in 2012 on 2008 results.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 17, 2014, 11:50:24 am
She picks lousy years in which to run.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:46:49 am
I remember in 2010 how the bottom nearly fell out completely for the Dems in Iowa. IA-1 and IA-2 weren't considered competitive and then in the final weeks, the DCCC started spending money to support Braley and Loebsack which probably made the difference for them. It's why I have been taking Ernst's lead at face value.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Rasmussen: Cotton +3 on: October 17, 2014, 11:09:05 am

Yes, yes, and no and that's all I'll say. Wink
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Rasmussen: Cotton +3 on: October 17, 2014, 08:54:19 am

I've got three posters whose names begin with K on ignore until after Election Day.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 16, 2014, 03:16:18 pm
The electorate in GA, NC, VA, LA where Dems are doing quite well is more diverse, or differently diverse (large African-American population as opposed to more Latino or Native American), than in all the states where Dems are doing relatively poorly this year.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead on: October 16, 2014, 03:15:07 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is America A Natural GOP Gerrymander? on: October 16, 2014, 08:24:15 am
Baby Bullwinkle
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 16, 2014, 08:13:27 am


He's looking especially Voldemortish in this pic.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: October 16, 2014, 07:57:01 am
Pryor isnt going anywhere. Voter ID law struck.
That doesn't effect the race much.  Black turnout is going to be horrible no matter what.  It could actually hurt Pryor.  Those poor whites could now come out in droves to get him out of office.

Republican voting correlates heavily with wealth in southern states like Arkansas and Mississippi, as opposed to states like Connecticut where the relationship is flat.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november on: October 16, 2014, 07:54:52 am
This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 15, 2014, 09:01:50 pm
She's a great Dem candidate for Florida.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 15, 2014, 01:56:43 pm
The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 15, 2014, 11:05:52 am
Another article claiming that Udall's ground game and messaging will enable him to repeat Bennet's success.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/mark-udall-2014-is-like-michael-bennet-2010

I would not want to be 4 points down as an incumbent, even with a great ground game.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign on: October 14, 2014, 03:16:05 pm
Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress???

Ted Cruz is going to have a larger soapbox.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats - are you panicking right now? on: October 14, 2014, 11:57:54 am
More like, after living through what happened in 2010 from Scott Brown through election day, it's hard to get too upset over a historical inevitability coming to pass.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 14, 2014, 09:03:01 am

She was raising money. I doubt anyone noticed.
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