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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign on: March 18, 2016, 02:50:35 pm
If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

You have to account for how far the white college vote drops for him compared to Romney, and also whether the white non-college women fleeing his misogyny cancel out the white non-college male vote going up for him.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign on: March 18, 2016, 02:45:40 pm
I love talk about how Trump starts with all of Romney's voters and then just adds more "white guys" on top of that to swamp Hillary.

His Pyrrhic success in the Republican primary is obscuring how completely toxic he is outside of it. Dude's got an approval rating of 35% and for every angry non-voter he pulls into his coalition, he kicks out two Republicans who'd never dream of voting for Hillary.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 08:52:44 pm
Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

Gadsden county is 56% African-American; it may well be Sanders' worst county in Florida.

I will now accept my accolades.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 06:40:27 pm
I wonder if Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina still tune into the live results on the web, clicking refresh to see their votes come in in ones and twos.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 08:17:33 am
Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

Gadsden county is 56% African-American; it may well be Sanders' worst county in Florida.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: An early look at the April contests... (D) on: March 13, 2016, 05:14:34 pm
Delaware has a larger Af-Am population by % than Virginia does, and financial services are a big industry. Clinton should win Delaware easily.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Republicans must do and must do NOW on: March 09, 2016, 05:37:35 pm

Who's with me?   

Zero U.S. Senators.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Did Trump Do So Well in MA? on: March 08, 2016, 09:16:54 am
Referring to Massachusetts migration to New Hampshire as "white flight" is absolutely absurd.

Massachusetts is on the whole not a diverse state, and for a hint which way people migrated from the city in the 1960s and later before and during busing, consider the name "South" Boston...  
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 11:16:59 pm
Rubio will not pull out before Florida.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 11:02:47 pm
Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

True, but only since he did so well on Super Tuesday. LA was going to be part of Cruz's base like AL and GA.
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Flint's water issues on: March 05, 2016, 08:22:37 am
I don't know.  All I do know is that it's silly and wrong to only blame Snyder and the Michigan GOP for this,

Snyder and the Michigan GOP made the decision to disregard many health warnings and threats about the water and continue to poison the people of the city because "they don't vote for us anyway." This is completely a political issue.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanderistas pissed at Warren for not endorsing. on: March 05, 2016, 08:19:23 am
They're right. If she really cares about the issues she purports to care, she should have endorsed Bernie. The fact that she hasn't suggest she's giving more importance to her personal ambition.

Warren realizes Clinton is going to be the nominee and that endorsing Bernie would be throwing away her power without changing the outcome. Holding out preserves her leverage to get commitments from Clinton on her issues until an endorsement later in the general election season.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Guess whom Caitlyn Jenner supports? on: March 04, 2016, 04:03:37 pm
http://www.starwipe.com/article/caitlyn-jenner-able-look-past-ted-cruzs-lgbt-hate--2180

Quote
In a heartwarming story reminding us of the importance of looking past someone’s sexual-orientation bigotry to see the money-loving person within, Caitlyn Jenner says she would gladly serve as “trans ambassador” for a President Ted Cruz, despite his long public record of vitriol against LGBT people. It’s an embrace of Cruz that, superficially, seems to go against Jenner’s personal beliefs that LGBT people such as her shouldn’t be treated like garbage. But it speaks to her inspiring ability to recognize that, deep down, she and Cruz both have love in their heart for being rich—and that’s what matters most.

“I like Ted Cruz. I think he’s very conservative and a great constitutionalist and a very articulate man,” Jenner says in a new interview with The Advocate, though she stops short of officially endorsing him. “I also think, he’s an evangelical Christian, and probably one of the worst ones when it comes to trans issues.”
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Vice-chair of Travis County GOP tries to remove twitter troll elected Chair on: March 03, 2016, 12:00:19 pm
I don't believe forum rules allow me to quote Morrow's response:

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/03/02/newly-elected-gop-chair-texas-capitol/

Why does he have Mamie Eisenhower's bangs?
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State rep, county party chariman etc. said something stupid - The Megathread on: March 03, 2016, 11:59:21 am
I feel like this one deserves its own thread, but whatever.

I agree! Smiley

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=231083.msg4949141#new
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 02, 2016, 01:50:22 pm
Donald Trump received 31% of the vote in Weston, 25% of the vote in Cambridge, 26.5% of the vote in Brookline, 30% of the vote in Needham etc. To be fair, these results aren't exactly representative of the residents of these townships, they're representative of the few Republicans who live in these townships and I have no idea what kind of person identifies as a Republican and lives in Newton or Brookline.

Probably a fair number of Orthodox Jews but I have no clue how they'd vote.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Vice-chair of Travis County GOP tries to remove twitter troll elected Chair on: March 02, 2016, 01:38:56 pm
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/robert-morrow-travis-county-gop

Quote
The vice chair of the Republican Party in Travis County, Texas wants to remove the newly-elected chairman of the chapter from his post over comments he tweeted Tuesday about the Clintons having sex and jailing members of the Bush family.

Robert Morrow won the position with 54 percent of the vote, according to the Texas Tribune. GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, the local party's vice chair, tweeted shortly after Morrow's win that he was "exploring" options to remove him before he takes over that position in June:
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dem turnout down 30% from supertuesday 2008 on: March 02, 2016, 12:10:19 pm
Turnout in my Dem-heavy city was about 2/3 of general election turnout in 2012. Not bad.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 08:42:43 am
I was voter #130 at my 85% Dem precinct, where I expect Bernie to run strong, and the new voting machines now offer projected turnout. They project 590 voters, which compares to 1657 in the 2012 General Election. Unfortunately I can't find the 2008 primary election results online, needless to say those won't be matched.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING Gabbard resigns from DNC and endorses Bernie on: February 28, 2016, 10:28:44 am
Whether or not she thinks Bernie would be a better candidate, if this kamikaze move indicates her political judgment it is probably better for the DNC to have her as a backbencher...
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will South Carolina end up as Sanders's worst primary state? on: February 28, 2016, 08:48:56 am
I would expect Mississippi or Arkansas to be more lopsided.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Neocons looking to support Hillary in a Hillary vs Trump race on: February 28, 2016, 08:45:18 am
My greatest unhappiness with Clinton, who doesn't seem to have learned from the mistakes of the last 15 years which she took an active part in.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McConnell Preps GOP Senators to Split from Trump on: February 27, 2016, 03:00:06 pm
He must have some great resume formatting tips for Kelly Ayotte...
49  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Two-way partisan registration by county, 2015-2016 on: February 27, 2016, 02:57:49 pm

Switched to GOP
Baker, FL - 78% Romney
Bradford, FL - 70% Romney
Columbia, FL - 68% Romney

mds32 speaks about official party registration, not how the people vote. It was (and partially is) a norm in the South, when vast majority of county residents (in some cases - 80% and above) were registered as Democrats (and elected conservative Democrats for local offices), while voting above 70% Republican in presidential (and, later, Congressional) elections.

Um, yes. I was adding the voting records to highlight that point.
50  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Two-way partisan registration by county, 2015-2016 on: February 26, 2016, 09:10:10 pm

Switched to GOP
Baker, FL - 78% Romney
Bradford, FL - 70% Romney
Columbia, FL - 68% Romney
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 547


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