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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 19, 2017, 06:49:44 am
It's like some here do not know that there is a run-off.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 19, 2017, 06:44:53 am
Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:31:42 pm
If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

because republicans were infighting

That means that their numbers should go down with the runoff, not up. Everyone got to vote for his own candidate this time.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:30:51 pm
Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

Yeah, but we also can't assume that every single Republican who voted this time will vote for Handel in the runoff.  The vast, vast majority will, but one or two percent could make the difference.

My bad, I misread your post as talking about tonight. I agree, I actually think he's in quite good shape for the runoff—better than 50% chance of winning.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:28:02 pm
If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:26:33 pm
If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

If Ossoff comes in under 50%, more than likely (given how small the other D candidates are getting) the GOP will have exceeded 50% when all added up--and the Democrats don't seem to like showing up to the polls for runoff elections.

Don't you think the rules about Dem enthusiasm aren't applying as usual in 2016? Also, there are independent candidates in the mix (albeit at tiny numbers.)
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:25:58 pm
Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:25:19 pm
Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.

I have to imagine that any Republican with ambition would rather be running against Ossoff in 2018 or 2020 rather than see Handel win.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:24:45 pm

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

A district once represented by Newt Gingrich is notoriously seduced by glamour and good looks
Isakson is quite a looker as well.

Once you go Price, you'll never think twice
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:23:45 pm
If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:22:43 pm

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

A district once represented by Newt Gingrich is notoriously seduced by glamour and good looks
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:17:31 pm
What % of the vote did Clinton get in this district?

46.8%

Points to Ossoff ending at 48% unless Fulton's behavior changes in ways Dekalb's and Cobb's didn't since November.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:16:16 pm
Great, now the #GA06 feed on Twitter is getting opportunistic porn ads along with the "suck it, snowflake" posts from MAGA trolls.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:11:22 pm
and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

A goal is to get 50%+. That would have been amazing, and few people projected it here.

If he's scoring at 48 or 49%, that's a very good position to be in heading into the runoff. Better than the low 40s showing in the polls where he'd never make up the gap to 50.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:09:13 pm
Cobb at 96% now and Ossoff at 50.4%

meaning, ossoff HAS improved 1.5 points compared to clinton.

trump/clinton difference was about 1 point, eh?

Yes, but there's also the third party and non-votes from the Presidential race to account for. I haven't checked but it's likely the Republican field of 11 combined is getting a higher % of the vote than Trump.

(I just did a quick sum on NYT and it's 48.6 for the R field. That's... weak.)
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:08:25 pm
may i remind everyone that ossoff is 1,6% ahead of clinton in dekalb and still 1,7% ahead in cobb...

meaning, if ossoff is also up 2% in fultin, that coould - theoretically - be enough, eh?

I think that math still has him falling short of 50 by a significant if not big number.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:07:25 pm
So with Cobb (almost) fully and DeKalb fully reported, Ossoff is running 1.6% ahead of Clinton in both counties. That's not 50%, but it's pretty damn good.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:53:38 pm
Conservatrash gonna be trash.

The moderators really don't moderate around here, do they?

It helps to report posts. Unless I happen to be reading a thread, I don't proactively moderate (which may be why a second moderator was added to my boards.)
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:48:19 pm
His vote also can only go down from the Early voting.

yep

Well, he just went up a small amount. It's going to vary a lot by the precincts that report.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:46:13 pm
I'm refreshing twitter on #GA06 and it's surprising how many Republicans are feasting on imaginary Democratic tears because Ossoff may have to go to a run-off in this district that's been Republican since 1980.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:20:23 pm
(R)CP


sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

Do you think his extrapolation here to Ossoff dropping to 40 is a reasoned analysis?
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:11:35 pm
If Ossoff's numbers keep dropping like this as Election Day vote rolls in, he actually might end up below 40%.

He's losing about a quarter point per precinct. Obviously not all precincts are the same size, though. Told you this was going to be fun
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/854501522096484354

(R)CP
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:53:56 pm
Also, everyone remember that EV in DeKalb was hamstrung by lack of voting locations.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:53:11 pm
This is just early voting folks, don't get too excited.

Yes, that 57% for Clinton wasn't EV but overall vote...
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:51:50 pm
Also--anyone getting weird Adware looking things on DDHQ?

Yes! Sketchy looking modal to update my Flash
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