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July 29, 2016, 02:46:58 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-Republican convention discussion LATEST: speakers to be announced on Wednes. on: July 03, 2016, 06:12:06 am
Well, here is a snippet, courtesy of CNN:

"..The "winners' night" Trump has promised would be jam-packed with sports figures supportive of his candidacy, and he has floated such big names as New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, UFC President Dana White and NASCAR CEO Brian France..."

Ben Carson is also confirmed as a speaker.

Have any of those people (other than Carson) announced they are going to Cleveland? Tom Brady knows enough about media to know better than to speak.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Donald Trump's tweet anti-Semitic? on: July 02, 2016, 09:11:19 pm
"What Trump believes in his heart" is not really related to "what the Trump campaign will tweet or retweet without thinking or caring."

I doubt Trump is personally anti-Semitic not only because of Ivanka, but does anyone believe he wouldn't have let it slip 100x by now if he were? But he seems to love having anti-Semites as his followers.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada continues to drift away from Republicans on: July 02, 2016, 07:58:00 am
Trump's strength in the Mormon community will help him over the top in Nevada.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight launches full blown 2016 election forecast on: June 29, 2016, 03:23:09 pm
It's funny that Polls-Plus shows that the probability of matching the 2012 map is 0.4% when that's exactly what is predicted now. I understand why that is—all those states which could theoretically go either Clinton or Trump—but it's still funny.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ballotpedia: Clinton way ahead in battlegrounds (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA) on: June 29, 2016, 03:00:45 pm
NC D+10 is a pretty special result.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI on: June 28, 2016, 05:52:52 pm
It's a shame that Kirk and Ayotte will likely go down because of the God-awful candidate at the top of our ticket.  They're both good Senators, and the more purple/blue state Republicans, the better.

And they will retire having achieved absolutely nothing in the Senate.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Patrick Murphy's Senate Campaign on: June 23, 2016, 09:03:34 am
Given how revelations about Rick Scott's corporate corruption and Marco Rubio's paper-thin resume utterly destroyed their candidacies, we can safely say Murphy is toast.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict: FL-13 on: June 23, 2016, 08:58:04 am
The NRCC hates Jolly and won't give him any support. Since it looks like Hillary will have a turnout operation in Pinellas County and Trump won't, it's hard to see how Jolly overcomes the natural lean of this district against a candidate who, whatever his faults, is popular there.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Rep. Lee Zeldin Win Reelection in NY-1? on: June 22, 2016, 03:52:46 pm
Does he have a viable opponent? This is the kind of seat that falls if Trump collapses. 
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your response to this lovely map on: June 21, 2016, 12:16:01 pm
Given that Clinton winning Utah depends on Mormons largely abandoning the GOP, it's inconceivable that she then loses Arizona.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: California Senate Primary on: May 11, 2016, 05:35:21 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236520.0
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win Orange County? on: May 08, 2016, 10:53:31 am
Yes, Trump will do well with people who feel economically left behind in poor areas or socially left behind in diverse and prosperous areas, and Orange County has moved too far from that coalition to give Trump a majority here.
38  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Two-way partisan registration by county, 2015-2016 on: May 03, 2016, 08:07:25 am
GOP gains Pinellas... in Florida

Well, that seems unsuspected. I thought this was a Republican county ages ago that has only been drifting Dem. What's the history in Pinellas?
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada voter registrations: Dems overwhelming GOP on: May 02, 2016, 09:16:08 pm
I can't imagine what or whose candidacy could be motivating so many new voters to register as Democrats in states like Nevada and California.
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: April 29, 2016, 10:10:36 am
Quote
GOPer: Clinton Will 'Go Down Like Monica Lewinsky' Debating Trump

A Florida GOP official said that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would "go down like Monica Lewinsky" if she debated Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.

Bob Sutton, chairman of the Broward County GOP Executive Committee, suggested Clinton would be easy to debate in the general election.

“I think when Donald Trump debates Hillary Clinton she’s going to go down like Monica Lewinsky,” Sutton told the Post.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/florida-republican-clinton-down-like-lewinsky
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Terri Bonoff running against Erik Paulsen (R-MN) on: April 25, 2016, 09:56:31 am
Wave insurance. If Trump is a disaster, seats like this fall, regardless of Paulsen's quality.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton begins VP search (NYT) on: April 23, 2016, 03:27:23 pm
I could see Clinton choosing a woman, the same way her husband "doubled down" against the conventional wisdom by picking another moderate Southerner as his Veep.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 21, 2016, 10:52:32 pm
Funny, but some undecided Republicans will end up voting for Trump after all is said and done.

But the swing/trend would be enormous with Trump.

The trend in Utah from Romney 2012 to Trump 2016 could be the largest gap in any state in many decades.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 09:48:40 pm
Republicans averaging 5 votes per precinct in the Bronx.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-04: Crenshaw retires on: April 13, 2016, 08:44:59 am
71 years old, can't blame him for wanting to retire.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Carolina Overturns LGBT-Discrimination Bans on: April 08, 2016, 11:37:51 am
What I find funny, is all of these business and people coming out saying they are leaving  NC is how  hypocritical they are. Their business and such were in NC the week before  Charlotte passed the law. So what has changed from the time before this whole deal happen? To my understanding, and I could be wrong, but nothing right?

Whether you're progressing or regressing on rights matters as much as where you are now. This is pushing back against regression, and also serves as a warning to other states not to pass these laws.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "One man, one vote" upheld by unanimous Supreme Court on: April 04, 2016, 01:41:03 pm
What a misleading trash title. No one argued against one man, one vote - they just argued about the precise definition.

Of "one"?
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / "One man, one vote" upheld by unanimous Supreme Court on: April 04, 2016, 10:17:06 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/scotus-evenwel-decision

The case, Evenwel v. Abbott, contested the counting of people not eligible to vote (non-citizens, kids) for legislative redistricting. This would have been a massive impact on TX's redistricting.
49  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth by State (2010 to 2015) on: April 04, 2016, 08:08:51 am
What's going on in New Mexico? A state neighboring Texas, Colorado, and Utah is doing almost as poorly as my home state. Why isn't it growing?

High poverty rate, low levels of education (other than Ph.Ds), climate isn't as warm as places like Arizona or Texas.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why hasn't Elizabeth Warren endorsed Bernie? on: April 03, 2016, 08:15:49 am
Leverage I guess?
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