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October 25, 2014, 12:34:27 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 15, 2014, 01:56:43 pm
The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 15, 2014, 11:05:52 am
Another article claiming that Udall's ground game and messaging will enable him to repeat Bennet's success.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/mark-udall-2014-is-like-michael-bennet-2010

I would not want to be 4 points down as an incumbent, even with a great ground game.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign on: October 14, 2014, 03:16:05 pm
Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress???

Ted Cruz is going to have a larger soapbox.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats - are you panicking right now? on: October 14, 2014, 11:57:54 am
More like, after living through what happened in 2010 from Scott Brown through election day, it's hard to get too upset over a historical inevitability coming to pass.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 14, 2014, 09:03:01 am

She was raising money. I doubt anyone noticed.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: October 14, 2014, 08:24:59 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/steve-vaillancourt-ann-kuster-ugly-as-sin



Quote
A New Hampshire state lawmaker thinks the outcome of the race for the state's 2nd congressional district will boil down to nothing more than the two female candidates' looks.

"Let's be honest. Does anyone not believe that Congressman Annie Kuster is as ugly as sin? And I hope I haven't offended sin," state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt (R) wrote Friday on New Hampshire politics blog NH Insider.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign on: October 14, 2014, 07:58:46 am
"week" should be "weak," but there's no way to edit.

It looks likely that Tea Party favorites like Joni Ernst and Tom Cotton will join Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and the non-Tea Party caucus majority in a new GOP majority in 2015 alongside a GOP House. Assuming Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, how does this shake up the 2016 race?
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SD-Sen: Pressler sat on board of company which defrauded investors on: October 13, 2014, 08:00:30 pm
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/larry-pressler-for-dc-mayor
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins in Georgia? on: October 12, 2014, 02:59:57 pm
Perdue/Perdue
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Georgia's voting backlog battle (Politico) on: October 12, 2014, 10:33:22 am
Has the SOS made the argument that delays and refusals to process voter registration forms are essential to preventing voter fraud yet?
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: hello I am calling out wormyguy for a detailed response to this on: October 12, 2014, 09:35:58 am
Wormyguy, this is the key paragraph on Stalin from your quote.

Quote
When he had talked with Cardinal Spellman on September 3, Roosevelt did not conceal his thoughts about Stalin and Eastern Europe. Stalin would receive Finland, the Baltic States, the eastern half of Poland, and Bessarabia [all the lands Stalin had coveted under his Pact with Hitler]. There was no point in opposing "these desires of Stalin, because he had the power to get them anyhow. So better give them gracefully."

Whatever Roosevelt said or felt, the fact was Stalin and the Red Army made the facts on the ground. The U.S. and British forces were going to demobilize after Hitler was defeated because they were democracies.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa and Colorado? on: October 12, 2014, 08:38:24 am
The polls say probably Ernst and very likely Gardner.

My heart says Braley and a toss-up in Colorado.

Mr brain remembers what republicans' hearts said in 2012 in response to polls showing Obama a clear winner and steers me back to the polls.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 12, 2014, 08:35:34 am
The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who wins Massachusetts? on: October 11, 2014, 01:51:19 pm
I'm going to say Baker. Because I don't think this race is going to be federalized.
40  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Bushie a "pretty smart cookie"? on: October 11, 2014, 09:09:47 am
Does anyone share Jeff's ability to tell what day of the week a random date in the past or future falls on?

I'm just curious. I've never encountered anyone who can do that.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Pan Atlantic SMS Group: Cutler surging? on: October 11, 2014, 07:44:30 am
Cutler nearly won as an Indy 4 years ago, greatly outperforming both his poll numbers and the Democratic candidate.  Cutler isn't necessarily any more to be considered a spoiler candidate than Michaud is.

The Dem candidate in 2010 was not viable except for the D next to her name, so he became the de facto D nominee.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Joni Ernst (R-IA) or Mike Rounds (R-SD) likelier to win? on: October 10, 2014, 05:18:19 pm
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 10, 2014, 03:36:26 pm
^ Definitely not.

The Post endorsee has won 9 of 11 Senate and presidential races since 1996. Exceptions were Gore '00 and Strickland '02. They endorsed Hick for guv twice, also endorsed the Dem AG candidate this year.

Wow, so the Post endorsed Udall in '08 and are now flipping?
44  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Virginia Congressional map struck down on: October 10, 2014, 03:32:39 pm
Oh, hey, you're right. Yeah, the 3rd district in Maryland is an abomination, and the 2nd district isn't much better. I don't know why they went to so much trouble in that part of the state at the southern end of the 3rd district, few people live there.
45  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Virginia Congressional map struck down on: October 10, 2014, 03:09:56 pm
Yeah, the Maryland maps last decade and this decade are both horrible. That said, I was surprised there is no hopping the Chesapeake in the current map, and the shark could ride across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge in the 2000s edition of MD-1.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Republicans Fortunes Rise in Alaska on: October 10, 2014, 12:49:07 pm
Stevens wasn't convicted until after the election, FWIW.

He was convicted on October 27, 2008

My bad, I misread as November 27 when I checked this.
47  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Virginia Congressional map struck down on: October 10, 2014, 12:30:23 pm
I didn't realize until now that to cross from the Newport News/Hampton side to the Norfolk/Portsmouth side by car or foot, you have to leave VA-3 and travel through other districts. In the case of Highway 60, you'll pass through VA-3 and VA-2 twice each before arriving in Norfolk in VA-3 for the third time.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Republicans Fortunes Rise in Alaska on: October 10, 2014, 12:25:51 pm
Stevens wasn't convicted until after the election, FWIW.
49  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Virginia Congressional map struck down on: October 10, 2014, 11:37:40 am
muon, true, but both Staten Island and Long Island are islands, so water crossing is inevitable. In addition, VRA districts are at play in those areas, for example in the two Brooklyn districts that force NY-9 to hop over water or which affect what Manhattan can be combined with in Kings. Everything in VA-3 is on the mainland.

A water crossing within the Hampton Roads urban area would be reasonable, but hopscotching from bank to bank through underpopulated areas and crossing sizable distances over water before alighting on a pocket of voters looks different to my eyes.
50  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: October 10, 2014, 09:14:26 am
I'll be completely honest with my pastor.  I am honest on Facebook, and that's what I'll tell him and more.
Jeff, if you were honest on Facebook, you wouldn't have deleted Andrew and I. 

Why were you his friend on Facebook in the first place, though? Do you feel you two are friends?
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