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September 04, 2015, 11:34:42 am
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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If it's Hillary vs. Donald... on: August 10, 2015, 07:21:20 pm
Yes. But he can't possibly become the nominee.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AZ-GOP Primary Trump Lead Slipping on: August 10, 2015, 02:05:11 pm
Why is Cruz gaining from the debate?
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does anybody here really think Jeb will be the nominee anymore? on: August 07, 2015, 01:16:53 pm
Yes. A dull performance in a debate doesn't negate his money nor the fact that he's basically competent enough to run a campaign.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 07, 2015, 05:43:37 am
I think the biggest takeaway is that Jeb Bush really is lackluster

That's the perfect word for it.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Two Train Wrecks Underway? on: August 05, 2015, 04:17:53 pm
Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination is literally the only scenario I can conceive of where Dems win the House in 2016.
31  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: August 05, 2015, 02:12:43 pm
With redistricting there's such a build-up of excitement until the actual maps come out, and then it's "meh," isn't it?

I guess I'm curious how swingy FL-10 is.

What share of Polk County's population lives in FL-15? Is it closer to 80% or 50%?
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Moderator's note on: August 02, 2015, 10:33:07 am
When Joe Republic stepped down, Dave asked me to take on the moderator's role in the Congessional Elections and Statewide/Gubernatorial Elections forums. I love these two forums for their ability to bring together people with diverse views and deep local and historical knowledge and look forward to the rise in interest as November 2016 gets closer.

People are passionate about their politics (myself included) and I anticipate a lot of lively debate and strong disagreements. I hope to moderate as sparingly as possible and only when things cross over into a zone that make discussion of the issues and people impossible, such as vicious personal attacks and accusations of dishonesty. Wherever possible I'll edit rather than delete and be transparent about my reasons.

Thank you for reading, and I look forward to an exciting election cycle. 
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Moderator's note on: August 02, 2015, 10:32:17 am
When Joe Republic stepped down, Dave asked me to take on the moderator's role in the Congessional Elections and Statewide/Gubernatorial Elections forums. I love these two forums for their ability to bring together people with diverse views and deep local and historical knowledge and look forward to the rise in interest as November 2016 gets closer.

People are passionate about their politics (myself included) and I anticipate a lot of lively debate and strong disagreements. I hope to moderate as sparingly as possible and only when things cross over into a zone that make discussion of the issues and people impossible, such as vicious personal attacks and accusations of dishonesty. Wherever possible I'll edit rather than delete and be transparent about my reasons.

Thank you for reading, and I look forward to an exciting election cycle. 
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Are Too Angry About Gay Marriage on: August 01, 2015, 06:10:17 am
This is of course going off on a tangent from the original topic of the thread, but I'm reminded of this Andrew Sullivan blog post from years ago, mentioning the strong Asian-American participation in Evangelical groups at elite universities:

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2007/09/24/asians-evangeli/

This seems consistent with my totally anecdotal experience from when I lived in the US, but not sure what it's like now.


Next-to-last paragraph here:

http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~hrcf/?page_id=46

After the founding of HRAACF, a few Asian-Americans chose to remain with HRCF.
35  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What major metro areas are more GOP than the state they are in as a whole? on: July 31, 2015, 09:57:19 am
Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

How about Jacksonville, FL?
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Summer 2015 on: July 31, 2015, 08:18:44 am
I hate to say it, but toss-up. There are a small number of seats that tip easily to the Dems (IL, WI) but the playing field hasn't broadened enough to give them an edge if they win remaining competitive seats like PA while holding NV. The pattern we've seen in the last 4 elections biases me toward assuming a good D night. 
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich. on: July 28, 2015, 09:07:52 am
I wonder how much Clinton's fall in approvals from a month ago result from her getting visible (if not viable) opponents, shifting a bunch of Dems from tepid approval to active disapproval that will flip back after she wins the nomination.

I am certain the split in the GOP field accounts for higher disapprovals on individuals there until everyone rallies around the winner.
38  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Moderator changes: 2015 edition on: July 27, 2015, 01:17:40 pm
The new moderator of the gubernatorial/statewide board and congressional board is a junk polling company.

Fixed. Smiley
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Are Too Angry About Gay Marriage on: July 25, 2015, 07:25:36 pm
All of the scenarios have clear ways to victory. If Dr. King were here, he'd be on my side. Your side can't say that.

Well, his widow Coretta Scott King, who knew his heart reasonably well, supported both anti-discrimination laws covering sexual orientation in Dr. King's name, and was an early endorser of same-sex marriage before her death in 2006. While the 1960s were prehistoric times for gay rights--even being gay was illegal in many states until 2003!--we have seen how other civil rights advocates from the era such as John Lewis have evolved.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato Update: A Small Senate Battlefield on: July 24, 2015, 09:12:24 pm
Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

Okay, seriously? I agree Duckworth is the favorite, but Kirk isn't like Terri Lynn Land (completely inept) or Bill Brady (tea party). This is going to be competitive.

In a presidential year, it should be as competitive as Scott Brown against Elizabeth Warren in 2012... He may put up a good fight but the math will not allow him to win.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2016 Congressional Elections on: July 24, 2015, 09:56:42 am
Why do the democrats like Crist so much? This man stands for NOTHING. He has changed his mind on every major position in the last 5 years. He is so blatantly after power for its own sake that its a joke. This is going to be a democratic leaning district and they certainly dont need Crist in order to win it, so why go back to him? I dont get it.

I don't have a strong opinion on Crist, but the House has pretty strong party discipline so if we have someone who can win easily there and make no waves in Washington, there's no reason to oppose him.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: D: Clinton 58% Sanders 17%; R: Bush 28% Rubio 16% Walker 13% on: July 24, 2015, 08:53:39 am
Christie 0%
Pataki 0%

That has to hurt. I bet Christie and Pataki were both hoping that some of their former constituents would help them out.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The cause of the Trump surge. on: July 23, 2015, 01:56:25 pm
Trump is the Republican id and they are without a superego.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump rules out third party run on: July 22, 2015, 02:31:30 pm
I'm sure whatever Trump said in response to that question was well thought-out and unlikely to change in any way.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls of CO, IA, VA. Clinton in big trouble. on: July 22, 2015, 11:02:54 am
I won't believe it until both the Vorlon and J.J. show up on this thread.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo-National: Trump still leads on: July 21, 2015, 02:02:59 pm
How can a sample size of 50 produce anything "statistically significant"?

Margin of error for a sample size of 50 is 14%. If his number was like 5% on Sunday, that would be a statistically significant drop from 24% even counting the MOE on the larger non-Sunday sample, too.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump doxxes Graham on: July 21, 2015, 01:35:25 pm
Jesus Christ.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 21, 2015, 01:30:51 pm
If you lose three times in your state, just run in a Democratic district!

I think this guy wins the prize for going to Congress as a consolation for losing statewide four times.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_McClintock
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News changes timing and length of forum for 2nd tier candidates on: July 21, 2015, 01:11:47 pm
You know, having the forum be much smaller and giving each person significant time is probably the only way this forum will serve these second tier candidates well.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump SURGES after McCain comments on: July 21, 2015, 10:24:33 am
...most of which was taken before the McCain comments, and whose small Sunday sample had a big drop for Trump.
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