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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report moves GA Senate race to "Toss Up" on: March 19, 2014, 07:51:53 pm
Hmmm, too soon.

I very much agree with this. It's certainly possible, but it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

He also has AR as a tossup, which is too conservative (should be Lean R), and NC as a tossup, which is also too soon. He is defining tossup widely.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-Sen: Scott Brown's flirtation on: March 18, 2014, 08:12:18 am
He didn't run for governor because Massachusetts Republicans already have a consensus non-loony candidate.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: PPP: National environment getting better for Dems on: March 17, 2014, 06:11:52 am
The $20,000,000 the Koch brothers spend
I don't usually consider you a kool-aid drinker, but boy did you buy that spin hook line and sinker.  Unlike the Kochs, unions have to actually make public the money they spend on politics, so it doesn't readily show up in the campaign spending databases.

Try this link for a rebuttal to the premise that the Kochs are being horribly misrepresented by Democrats in search of a bogeyman.  http://www.thenation.com/blog/178743/koch-brothers-spent-twice-much-2012-election-top-ten-unions-combined

Yeah, I may be a Republican, but even I see a distinction between the spending buy several unions with a combined membership in the millions vs. TWO brothers who are fortunate enough to be billionaires.

Jeez, Vorlon, you really disappointed here.

Most statistics classes teach the importance of doing an apples to apples comparison, rather than drawing a connection between two incomparable data sets. I would expect an approach based on an annual, per capita basis to provide more insight than the comparison drawn here. What do others think?
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John King: Veteran House Dems retiring this week on: March 17, 2014, 06:08:36 am
Louise Slaughter is 85 years old. I don't know how she or Hall manage the travel.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: WV-03: NRCC: Rahall down 14 (!) on: March 13, 2014, 06:32:14 pm
It's been a while since we've seen a poll produced to goad an incumbent into retiring.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 12, 2014, 06:37:59 pm

Most of the red avatars on this site are blaming Sink for being a bad candidate.  

It was the stories about how she has no energy, is a weak campaigner, and was perceived as invisible for months at a time. She absolutely had funding and name recognition—which is rare for a Dem in Florida—but she doesn't appear to have any charisma as an individual. I don't think she was an awful candidate, but she was definitely overhyped, as she was for governor in 2010.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 12, 2014, 03:39:12 pm
57% was basically tied with 1992 for Young's worst performance ever. I doubt he could have gone any lower - I don't think that any additional Obama-Young voters were inclined to switch even if he were running against Jesus.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 12, 2014, 11:25:00 am
By all accounts given the 13th's demographics and the fact that David Jolly was a a terrible candidate with a terrible campaign Sink should have won.

If I were the a Democratic strategist I'd def take this as bad news for D prospects in general-not only in the House but in the Senate.  After all if they had trouble pulling off a victory in the 13th with more money, a better turnout operation and a stronger candidate imagine what it means in places even less friendly to the Democrats.  

Again, the district voted as it was drawn to, it's not a huge surprise or difficult for a Republican to achieve. If anything, Republicans lost a lot of ground, Young won 57% of the vote in a presidential year, whereas Jolly won only 48% in a special. We can spin all day, but it doesn't mean anything in terms of November.

I don't see any extenuating circumstances here. Sink was a poor candidate but Jolly was no great shakes, either, and there was a libertarian in the mix. I think this race shows pretty well we're in at least a Lean R environment for this fall, which sustains the House Republican majority and puts too many Dem Senate incumbents in serious anti-Obama states in danger.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: March 12, 2014, 08:10:35 am
Quote
To put into perspective Mississippi’s reliance on federal dollars, about 49 percent of Mississippi’s state budget is comprised of federal funds — the highest percentage in the nation.

Which makes it all the more amazing that they're during down Medicaid expansion on principle.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 12, 2014, 08:05:38 am
This seat was a must-win for Democrats to have any hope for taking control of the House this coming election.

I can't speak for all Dems, but I think that ship had LONG sailed as far as any realist Democrat's assessment.

At this point, the question is whether enough Akins make it to the top to save the Senate for us.
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 11, 2014, 02:12:28 pm
I suppose it is a slight inconvenience to have to turn in forms daily instead of weekly, but not so much as to prove a significant burden.

Let's assume it's only a slight inconvenience to do that. (I disagree, knowing how shoestring many volunteer operations are, but neither you nor I can say for sure.)

The outcome of this law would be that many applications that, for whatever reason, can't get into Uncle Sam's hands within 48 hours would have to be thrown out or else 5 years of jail time. Which requires checking the time and date of all of them before submission. Which takes time away from registration. And it also means having to throw out any registration form that has past this arbitrary deadline, which means people who think they're registered to vote, aren't, and you can't fix that problem because how would they know they didn't register? All of this adds up to a situation meant to shut down registration drives. It worked.
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 11, 2014, 09:29:33 am
Okay. I agree the penalties are excessive, but what is so damned difficult about turning in the forms the day (or even the day after) they were filled out? Indeed, why wouldn't they have been doing that already?

It's a volunteer effort with volunteers managing volunteers. Expecting them to track all registrations and getting them in, full stop, is challenging enough, although they do it. Imposing an artificial deadline just to force the organization to jump through hoops they can't meet and which requires efficiency from every volunteer, and putting draconian penalties on it, is only intended to keep them from registering.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which of these is the MOST likely pickup for D's? on: March 11, 2014, 08:59:31 am
Georgia, because the runoff system.

Kentucky, because of Georgia's runoff system. Wink

It's too easy for Nunn to lead narrowly in the original election and then see the Dems and protest voters forget to show up in the follow-up.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 11, 2014, 08:46:29 am
Voter Drives-Nobody is stopping anybody from having voter drives.

A Florida law required voter registration groups to turn in registration forms within some unrealistic time of receiving them--two or three days--which was so impossible that the League of Women Voters had to stop its registration drives.

What's so unrealistic about that?  It might not be as convenient to the group to have someone stop by the voter registration office every day or two to turn in the forms, but should be far from impossible unless you could only turn them in in Tallahassee.

I'll let them explain. Here's their statement on how Republican changes to voting laws affect their non-partisan voter drives.

Volunteers weren't interested in facing $5,000 fines, a third degree felony and up to 5 years in prison if any one of the registration cards they got didn't get into state hands within that time limit.

http://www.lwv.org/blog/why-lwv-florida-cant-register-voters
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 11, 2014, 06:03:58 am
Voter Drives-Nobody is stopping anybody from having voter drives.

A Florida law required voter registration groups to turn in registration forms within some unrealistic time of receiving them--two or three days--which was so impossible that the League of Women Voters had to stop its registration drives.
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 07, 2014, 07:38:43 am
The issue here is that a minority outreach panel defaults to "minority voters want stuff from the government, unlike our rugged individualist whites” which is kind of racist and shows the usual blind spot to "goodies” the Republican base loves.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC 'GOP minority outreach' panel goes as well as you'd expect on: March 07, 2014, 06:30:35 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/panelists-minority-outreach-goodies

Quote
The moderator, Jason Roe, said one of the problems Republicans have with attracting poor minority voters is that Democrats like to give them handouts while Republicans don't. Sailor said that one of the frustrations he's seen is that Democrats have lots of "goodies to offer."

"Our guys aren't exactly in the offering goodies business so it's harder for us to go in and say what can we do to help the African American experience," Sailor said.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: March 03, 2014, 02:20:06 pm
If all the waiter does is take orders and then serves the food, you'd be right, but at the highest level, restaurants do try to go beyond that. 

It's ok if you choose not to accept the distinction.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: March 03, 2014, 01:24:35 pm
To a degree that depends on the restaurant.  A fast food joint doesn't require any empathy with the customer, but I could see it with a higher class restaurant with extensive personal service as part of the experience. 

That's why I stressed the importance of being a professional. If you're a professional waiter, you don't have to really do anything different to provide good service - you just have to do your job and have some basic integrity. I think it strains credulity to say that a waiter needs to endorse a customer's lifestyle to serve them and take their orders. A photographer has to be comfortable capturing intimate moments (in a public sense.) All that said it's a difference of degree rather than kind and it's where I find myself.

Note that we've shifted here from "religious objections" to basic comfort/disgust. Which is what this is really about, anyway.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: March 03, 2014, 11:12:17 am
What I find really weird about conservative apologias of this law is the insistence that a wedding photographer refusing to accept gay couples as clients is any different from someone turning that couple away from a restaurant or grocery store. What are the grounds for that distinction?

A photographer's ability to do their job well is influenced by comfort with their couple. For a restaurant or grocery store, if you're professional, it shouldn't make a difference.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kaiser: Majority wants to keep ACA in place on: March 03, 2014, 08:59:00 am
When did Obama endorse or promote single payer?
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: March 03, 2014, 06:51:47 am
I'm part of a same-sex couple and half the time, we go grocery shopping together. Sometimes I'm too busy and he needs to go alone, and sometimes I'm available and it's always much faster because I can wait in line for cold cuts while he gets other stuff on our list. Then we check out together.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: March 03, 2014, 06:49:10 am
I'm not sure why different feelings about requires different laws. Why can't they give the perpetrator 5 yrs for assault in both cases?

"Different feelings" is why we have different punishments for manslaughter, second degree murder, and first degree murder, rather than just one catch-all murder conviction with the same punishment.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AZ Legislature turns back clock, resumes segregation, but this time for gays on: February 28, 2014, 06:51:57 am
It was apparently only a two page bill

Which is why it is so astonishing that it could be so misinterpreted by the media and by most of the posters in this thread.  SB 1062 is not segregation. It does not even mention gays or sexual orientation and it does not mention discrimination.

Neither DOMA nor any of the state DOMAs mention gays or sexual orientation and do not mention discrimination. Would you say that they have nothing to do with gay rights? I trust not.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kaiser: Majority wants to keep ACA in place on: February 27, 2014, 10:11:26 am
They have a plan that throws 1 million people out of their plans and raises the deficit.

It will increase the deficit by $74B over 10 years, and reduce the incidence of employer-provided healthcare plans for 1M people, who the CBO assumes will go onto Medicaid. Clutching at straws.

If it hadn't been just a few weeks since Republicans trumpeted a CBO report showing that Obamacare was going to throw 2 million people out of work, I'd feel more sympathetic to that argument... but I think they've been hoist on their own petard.
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