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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: I can beat Hillary in OH, CO, NH, PA, WI, MI, and NM on: April 17, 2015, 02:05:28 pm
From USA Today
Quote
Christie said he could win some states that President Obama won in 2012 and 2008. Christie said he could win in Pennsylvania “where folks have seen me operate” as governor of neighboring New Jersey and “have a real comfort level with the type of leadership that I provide."

Oh my God. No, being from New Jersey does not mean people from Pennsylvania like and look up to you. That's really really not how it works.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R) on: April 17, 2015, 10:07:49 am
Massive outlier - I'm skeptical. Need more corroborating evidence. But certainly looks good for Feingold at this point.

Ron Johnson's election in 2010 is looking like a massive outlier at this point.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Harry Reid now gives zero f[inks], starts talking mad smack about everybody on: April 16, 2015, 02:15:54 pm
Harry Reid was terrible, guys. In general, corrupt and mean. As the Democrats leader, single-handedly squandered the 2008 election.
2008 was an EXCELLENT year for democrats.....

Yes, but by clinging to the cloture rule, he let Republicans freeze the chamber for months at a time.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look on: April 14, 2015, 12:18:07 pm
Color me surprised. It seems like VA is a tad more Dem a state than Colorado at the moment.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only on: April 14, 2015, 08:26:44 am
0% undecided. What a state.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look on: April 14, 2015, 08:17:21 am
Is this the same poll that had Hillary at a consistent 41-42%, with some Republicans above and some below? Seems like Bennet is running as Generic D right now in Q poll.

Quote
   U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clinton's 40 percent;
    She ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 41 - 41 percent;
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent;
    Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
    She gets 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent;
    Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.
32  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you support gay marriage before Hillary Clinton? on: April 13, 2015, 08:26:19 pm
It makes my head spin as well how soon we've gone from "gay rights don't threaten anyone else" to "you must conform or suffer the consequences." Do you have to be a "special snowflake" to deserve respect and tolerance?


33  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you support gay marriage before Hillary Clinton? on: April 13, 2015, 05:33:03 pm
That is the case for most gays that I know personally, but I keep hearing from some corners that all those who oppose gay marriage are bigots.

Well, the Internet is dark and full of terrors, and you'll hear all kinds of generalizations from people age 18 to whatever which haven't been thought through. I think there's a full spectrum of people from the 90 year old who just doesn't get gay marriage but doesn't really care if it becomes legal to the very cynical political operative who thinks it's still 2004 and he can use opposing gay marriage to prop up a candidate, and obviously you can't paint everyone with the same brush.

Some people who oppose gay marriage are bigots, not because they oppose gay marriage, but because their opposing gay marriage is just one expression of their hatred of or disgust for gays which doesn't have a well-thought-out ethos behind it. I also think I don't have an obligation to be appreciative of people who oppose same-sex marriage to the point they try to deny us equal rights under the law, because it's their feelings vs. my rights, and they don't care what I think anyway.

We seem to have traveled in light speed from "gay marriage is unpopular, so gays who come out should bear the social consequences of flaunting their lifestyle" to "gay marriage is popular, so people who oppose it are special snowflakes deserving of everyone's respect and tolerance" and it makes my head spin. 
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Rubio running? on: April 13, 2015, 03:32:54 pm
Because he'd rather take his opportunity too early than too late.
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US uninsured rate continues to plummet, youth signing up most on: April 13, 2015, 01:22:53 pm
One question: have undocumented residents always/ever been included in the former "47 million Americans" figure?

I'm pretty certain they are.
36  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California? on: April 13, 2015, 08:47:11 am
Article on Texas's water issues:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/13/us/mighty-rio-grande-now-a-trickle-under-siege.html
37  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you support gay marriage before Hillary Clinton? on: April 13, 2015, 08:36:08 am
I supported it from the moment I spent any time thinking about the issue, which would have been when it first gained currency as an issue across the Fruited Plain, which would have been about the same time I guess as Brittain33.

When it first came up as a localized issue in Hawaii that was covered in the gay media such as The Advocate, which probably would have been around 1996, I did not instinctively accept it. It was too far out there of an idea for me even though I was out and in same-sex relationships. I thought it was asking for too much and not what "marriage" meant. I was still in college at the time.

By the time the focus shifted from the aborted case in Hawaii (1998) to the partially successful case in Vermont (2000), I'd progressed to accepting it, too. But I was very naive and did not consider that there would be a big backlash, that politicians and really the majority of Americans wouldn't just accept these cases but would fight back actively. I really thought Vermont should go for marriage rather than for civil unions because then anyone could get married in VT and bring it home with them!
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Well, your opinion of Hillary's video? on: April 13, 2015, 08:10:39 am
I was offended by the attack on traditional marriage.

Are you from the year 2004?

He's a parody troll account.
39  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you support gay marriage before Hillary Clinton? on: April 13, 2015, 08:09:17 am
Probably since the late 1990s, which means before something like 90% of Democrats who support it now.

shua, I understand what you're going for here, but I think I can speak for all gays who aren't parody troll accounts here by saying that we recognize that people have to evolve on this issue, just as Obama and our family members have. While Hillary Clinton was unusually risk-averse, she's come around and become a strong advocate, and that's what matters now.

I voted for Hillary over Obama in 2008 in part because of Obama's reluctance on this issue—at least with Hillary, I knew I would get caution and cynicism. Obama has surprised me by embracing gay rights in his second term.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Well, your opinion of Hillary's video? on: April 12, 2015, 04:16:47 pm
Competent, nicely handled, which are two descriptors I wouldn't have used for her 2008 campaign.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: chafee in west va on: April 11, 2015, 04:14:40 pm
A Yankee Wasp from an aristocratic New England family will not play well in WV.
Dubya disagrees
Yeah but GWB passed himself off as a folksy Texan. Chafee couldn't do that.

Jay Rockefeller disagrees.
42  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California? on: April 11, 2015, 04:13:46 pm
The case for Texas eventually passing California can be summarized in one word: drought.

The evidence indicates that the 1900's were the wettest in millennium. If rainfall returns to historical levels, and, groundwater levels fall, Texas could grow sufficiently faster for sufficiently long.

Texas has water issues, too, and is going to become much hotter and drier.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 11, 2015, 03:05:57 pm
Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

Based on what's going on here and in other states, private polling indicates 2016 will be another rough presidential year for federal Republicans. They're sitting this one out.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Man captures SC police officer shoot man in back, plant tazer gun on: April 08, 2015, 12:21:28 pm
There was a fundraising site up for this policeman on fundrazr.com for one hour.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul's presidential campaign website spelled the word "education" wrong. on: April 08, 2015, 11:12:50 am
Pretty bad, but Mitt set a high bar for misspelling important words.

46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Portman trailing Strickland, crushing Sittenfeld on: April 07, 2015, 11:30:48 am
It's all about the name ID at this point. It seems more people know who Strickland is than know who Portman is.

If they haven't gotten to know Portman after five years as an incumbent senator, they will be introduced to him by Strickland's attack ads. This is not a defense of Portman, it's a serious liability.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie plans comeback on: April 07, 2015, 09:24:40 am
Christie is going to follow the Giuliani model of targeting certain states for a "comeback" and then driving his numbers in those states lower by actively campaigning there.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Obama trolls the Republican field: the megathread on: April 07, 2015, 09:20:00 am
There's going to be a lot of this before election day in 2016. Post Obama's put-downs here!

Quote
Obama Tells Scott Walker To 'Bone Up On Foreign Policy'

"I am confident that any president who gets elected will be knowledgeable enough about foreign policy, and knowledgeable enough about the traditions and precedents of presidential power, that they won't start calling into question the capacity of the executive branch of the United States to enter into agreements with other countries," Obama responded. "And it would be a foolish approach to take, and, you know, perhaps Mr. Walker, after he's taken some time to bone up on foreign policy, will feel the same way."
49  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who is "Bushie"? on: April 06, 2015, 07:05:24 pm
Trust-funder, lives in Thailand.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Portman trailing Strickland, crushing Sittenfeld on: April 06, 2015, 04:29:05 pm
Quinnipiac's numbers aren't adding up. They seem to think that OH is as Democratic leaning as NM, and PA is as Republican leaning as AZ. I'll buy that Portman's vulnerable, but even in a Democratic wave, he wouldn't lose by 9 points.

I'm not a big optimistic, but I disagree. The evidence from Ohio is that in a wave, basically ok incumbents can lose by big numbers.
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