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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. House Members: Ryan is going to step down after Tuesday on: November 03, 2016, 06:13:14 pm
Chaffetz or Gohmert?
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Trump +1 in GA, +5 in AZ, +9 in TX on: November 03, 2016, 04:01:06 pm
These are... not bad for Clinton for those days.

Johnson too high, though.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump fails to GOTV in Israel, wins only 49 to 44 points in safe-R state on: November 03, 2016, 01:23:02 pm
I would love to know how the Pepe avatars respond to this.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 11:15:46 am
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%


Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

But there are how many Democrats in Butler County? 11?
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 09:24:13 am
It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 08:50:38 am
If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."
Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.

The quoted text refers to OhioŚcomparing to Florida results is apples and oranges.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 08:48:31 am
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 08:09:26 am
Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 02, 2016, 04:25:18 pm
With Iowa and Ohio leaning Trump and Indiana and Missouri solidly Republican, where we're headed is a scenario where the Midwest votes like it's 2004 and everywhere else votes like it's 2008.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Monmouth: McGinty +3 on: November 02, 2016, 01:16:42 pm
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 on: November 02, 2016, 12:01:40 pm
Good numbers for McGinty in this poll - basically mirroring Presidential race.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:59:42 am
Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: November 02, 2016, 11:54:23 am
TargetSmart is in the field in Ohio, will have a poll out on Sunday/Monday.

Clinton +2
Portman +5
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:45 am
From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:46:22 am
This is rich. Apparently the Hispanic sample in the CNN NV poll was too small to list cross-tab data for Clinton vs. Kaine.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Susquehanna - PA: Clinton +2 (4-way) on: November 02, 2016, 11:39:29 am
Their final result in 2012 was Romney 49-45, so they aren't reliable. Trump is likely to win PA though.

Interesting. Do you think NJ might be in play for the Trumpster given some overflow of his strength in the Keystone State?
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 10:29:33 am
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: November 02, 2016, 08:34:39 am
I'm not buying this lower black turnout theory.  Black voters are probably less enthusiastic about Hillary than they were for Obama 4 years ago, so they aren't turning out day 1 to vote for her.  But at the end of the day they are a reliable voting bloc and they will eventually turn out for her. 

It feels non-controversial for me. Black turnout ticked up noticeably in 2008 and 2012 to be higher than white turnout; why shouldn't it drift down closer to 2004 levels? No one was surprised that Dem turnout in Florida was down after Lieberman wasn't on the ballot. It's about the infrequent voters on the margins who need this particular affinity to feel like voting relevant.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8 on: November 02, 2016, 06:56:19 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?

This isn't a controversial statement, they do consulting for Dems. It's googleable.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: RAND National: Clinton +9 on: November 01, 2016, 03:35:20 pm
Not believing Johnson at 8% this late in the game.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7 on: November 01, 2016, 03:32:25 pm
Dems, take comfort from this:

http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Texas, CBS 11 Dallas and Dixie Strategies: Trump +12 on: November 01, 2016, 03:05:33 pm
I am a little worried that most of the tightening has been large red states like Georgia and Texas that were never really in danger going back to normal margins, and not a cracking of the 272 freiwal.  Let's see what we get from Wisconsin tomorrow.

No offense, but do you seriously want Donald Trump to be President?
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