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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll on: September 07, 2016, 05:27:18 am
Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National: Clinton +6 in Head to Head, +4 in 4-Way on: August 30, 2016, 08:10:31 am
2012+NC+NE-2.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Trump rebounding slowly? on: August 29, 2016, 08:25:22 am
Ending his daily battle with the Khans has helped.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: August 29, 2016, 08:24:13 am
I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump has a huge problem with Catholics on: August 29, 2016, 08:22:46 am
That Massachusetts data from 1985 simply must be wrong.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pennsylvania - Emerson Polling: Clinton + 3 on: August 29, 2016, 08:07:51 am
Yeah, Emerson, we're going to need to see some crosstabs to understand what you are seeing.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Clinton underperforming in Nevada and Iowa? on: August 28, 2016, 12:58:18 pm
Interesting aside... Donald Trump just did an event in Iowa (he accused Hillary Clinton of targeting family farms for destruction) and he had Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst, and Terry Branstad with him. Terry Branstad's son is running Trump's campaign effort in Iowa.

Polling aside, this looks like one state where Clinton's campaign effort actually faces a competing effort from the Republicans.

Aha, he was at Joni Ernst's event.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/28/donald-trump-iowa-republican-red-state
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Clinton underperforming in Nevada and Iowa? on: August 28, 2016, 12:28:05 pm
Interesting aside... Donald Trump just did an event in Iowa (he accused Hillary Clinton of targeting family farms for destruction) and he had Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst, and Terry Branstad with him. Terry Branstad's son is running Trump's campaign effort in Iowa.

Polling aside, this looks like one state where Clinton's campaign effort actually faces a competing effort from the Republicans.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-Suffolk: Clinton +7 on: August 26, 2016, 08:02:52 am
Yeah, this is about right. Trump is behind but it's not over.

It's over, really.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Kellyanne can keep Trump on a short leash, can he win? on: August 25, 2016, 09:36:22 am
Premise is unsustainable.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-St. Leo: Rubio +8 on: August 23, 2016, 02:54:49 pm
Will Little Marco do any joint rallies with Trump in Florida as we get closer to Election Day?
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 05:03:36 pm
Trump's at 40% in Iowa. Is he doing well or is it just that Clinton is having a harder time closing the deal with undecideds than in other states?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: Can Darryl Glenn win a senate seat in CO? on: August 19, 2016, 09:12:35 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243863.0
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3 on: August 17, 2016, 10:36:38 am
Sponsor is a pro-union org.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL- Monmouth: Clinton +9 on: August 17, 2016, 10:11:28 am
Heads up, Monmouth is coming out with an INDIANA poll later today! Numbers include President, Senate, and Gov.

They also said the numbers are "interesting" in the tweet they sent out.

It would make me laugh if the faker is behind or tied in IN. Really.

It could just as easily be a weak lead for Bayh...
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP: Trump +6 on: August 16, 2016, 11:40:36 am
This actually reminds me of 1996, when Bob Dole was on the brink of losing Texas. He was polling just as bad with Hispanics as Trump and Perot got 7% of the vote there as well, which hurt Dole even more. In the end, he won the state by 5 despite losing in a landslide nationally. Maybe we'll see a repeat of that this year.

Dems still did quite well in rural east Texas back then, too.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Say something nice about the other party's nominee on: August 16, 2016, 11:32:11 am
Donald Trump appears to be genuinely liberal on LGBT issues, at least more so than most other Republicans.

This. He's the first Republican presidential candidate I can think of who doesn't seem to have personal contempt for gays or is willing to throw us overboard as red meat to the base. (Romney was quite callous and calculating toward gays; McCain didn't care too much, but didn't have a high opinion of gays; Bush famously used us as a turnout tool in 2004; before that is ancient history.)
43  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are the "WOW" counties in Wisconsin conservative? on: August 15, 2016, 06:36:20 pm
How did it end up so much more consistently Republican than Chicago suburbs or Minneapolis suburbs?
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Three months out, truly "can anything happen?" on: August 15, 2016, 10:37:54 am
If any other cop is hurt or dead, the Democrats are toast.

Sadly, police officers lose their lives in the line of duty on average every three days. It is likely some have died since Baton Rouge and Dallas and a certainty that some will before Election Day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_police_officers_killed_in_the_line_of_duty

It's really, really hard to see something like this flipping the election to Trump.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Three months out, truly "can anything happen?" on: August 15, 2016, 08:27:17 am
I don't think an economic shock would hurt Clinton because Trump has defined himself as erratic, impulsive, and having bad judgment. That trumps him being in the "out" party. People seeking stability will go to Clinton.

For similar reasons, I don't think a massive terrorist attack favors him, plus Clinton has shown she can present as tough and hawkish.

I am skeptical any devastating personal scandal is possible for Hillary after 25+ years in the spotlight paired with a personal scandal magnet.

I think "asymptotically close to zero" is the best way to describe the situation.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Poll: Three months out, truly "can anything happen?" on: August 15, 2016, 07:48:35 am
It seems as if every news article discussing Hillary's large poll lead and Trump's disastrous image among most of the electorate says "but with several weeks left, the election's not over / anything can happen."

Is that true? Can anything change the dynamic significantly enough that Trump could be elected?

Note that I am not asking about whether Hillary has a 100% chance of winning; I am assuming that even if she leaves the race somehow, Tim Kaine still wins, and that nearly any conceivable scandal she would still survive and win or (less likely) Johnson would ride it to victory.  
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: USA Today: Young voters flee Trump in what may be historic trouncing (poll) on: August 14, 2016, 08:39:50 pm
It would be nice if the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives some time before they disappear as a party.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA on: August 14, 2016, 11:07:38 am
GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.

I want to agree, but the 50% runoff threshold could severely hurt Dem downballot progress there.  Let's see if McMullin gets on the AZ ballot.  If he does, I think AZ becomes the better Clinton target.  If not, invest in AZ.

Put that way—I agree that AZ is a better target than GA. Certainly its Republican statewide officials sound more scared than Georgia's already! I'd say to fund both, but I don't know if the Clinton campaign can do that.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in FL, NH - Trump ahead in GA on: August 14, 2016, 10:06:48 am
GA needs work ; I question if Hillary should spend resources here.

There's a lot of upside for her in investing in Georgia. She doesn't need to spend the money elsewhere to win, and there are a lot of inactive voters who can be registered and motivated to vote and start turning things around. Trump having zero campaign in the state would subtract a few points from his lead.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans tell RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to de-fund Trump on: August 11, 2016, 07:59:24 pm
Some of the signatories include Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut, Sen. Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire, Rep. Tom Coleman of Missouri, and about 20 former RNC staffers.

Impressive. Two of the three elected officials have been out of office for more than 20 years—admint it, has anyone here heard of Tom Coleman?—and the third was a gadfly when he actually was in Congress.
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