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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would benefit the most from a Bush vs. Romney stand-off? on: January 15, 2015, 05:32:45 pm
Who on Earth is Jeb Bush's constituency if he's running against Romney and several purists?
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Dem vote in the Republican primaries on: January 15, 2015, 05:30:11 pm
If the 2016 Dem primary is a snooze fest, many voters will be tempted to vote in the Republican primary for a candidate like Cruz or Santorum. I remember Rush Limbaugh claiming credit for a campaign like this against Dems in 2004 or 2008.

Will this happen and will it have an impact on the race?
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ron Johnson: The Next Spencer Abraham? on: January 14, 2015, 05:45:48 pm
Abraham didn't lose because of right wing dissatisfaction. It was a good year for Dems in the Senate and the overall environment combined with Michigan's natural lean combined with Abraham having zero crossover appeal did him in. I think Abraham had a sizable lead with high undecideds until October when Stabenow caught up.

I assume Johnson has some charisma, and he's better looking than Abraham.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: January 14, 2015, 10:01:50 am
Ron Klink had a late primary and was broke. As a congressman, he was better than "some dude," but many Pennsylvania voters were barely aware that there was a race until the final weeks.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TNR: The case for Tom Cotton in 2016 on: January 13, 2015, 10:50:55 pm
Last summer, the problem with Cotton was that he lacked charisma. That doesn't help him running for President.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RomneyWatch: Upgrade to "Almost certainly" running again on: January 13, 2015, 05:43:45 pm
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/romney-face-tattoo-guy-says-hes-not-supporting-romney-in-201
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 field: Enter Mitt Romney? on: January 13, 2015, 03:04:17 pm
We need Bush and Romney to go after each other.

That will be an exercise in total ennui. Pity Portman isn't in play.

that sounds like a good description of what the 2016 campaign as a whole is shaping up to be.
TBH, that's what 2012 was. Most boring campaign since 1996.

Really? On the Dem side, yes, but the Republican primary was fantastic. (I'm trying not to be smug about it, God knows Democrats have had enough clown car primaries in my lifetime and will have them again.)
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Romney run again? on: January 13, 2015, 10:04:39 am
Is he pulling himself in because "if Jeb Bush can do it..."?
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jay Leno brutally attacks Hillary - calls her very slow, old and lacking fire on: January 13, 2015, 10:03:42 am
Did he follow it up with a joke about Judge Ito?
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 MA Senate race on: January 12, 2015, 05:55:31 pm
Oh, I'd love to see Elizabeth Warren defeated, but it's hopeless.
This.  Baker would probably be our best bet, but I suspect he'll go for reelection (which I would prefer.)
I doubt that Charlie Baker will run for Senate against Elizabeth Warren in 2018 as well, though he might run against Ed Markey in 2020 and could be competitive against him.

Baker has disowned the national GOP. It's really hard to imagine him going that route against the Dem current. Honestly his best next move is into a future Republican Cabinet.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush, Clinton don't fare well in focus group on: January 12, 2015, 04:32:31 pm
One thing here resonates with me. My father and stepmother are both Republican voters who dislike Obama and Clinton. And although they are both far from working class or even lower middle class, unexpectedly, they both told me they like Elizabeth Warren.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Santorum: Cruz & Paul are "bomb throwers" with no accomplishments on: January 12, 2015, 09:10:47 am
Great, Santorum is filling the role that Gingrich did last time of making the Dems' arguments in the general for us in his primary.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 12, 2015, 09:09:08 am
As a Dem, I'm worried by Jeb Bush. I don't think the name thing hurts him at all. His biggest drawback IMO is being so rusty on campaigning, and like Hillary Clinton in '08 he's going to have a rough learning curve in the primaries. But I think he's got a good chance of winning if he makes it through.

Putting Mitt Romney on the ticket is kind of like returning to Love Canal to build your dream home.
39  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The future of the GOP's demographics on: January 12, 2015, 08:25:03 am
That map puts Birmingham, Alabama in the upper south. If that's the case, there is no distinction to be made about a largely white "upper south" where race issues were not significant and the Deep South where they were. The points about "the modern ATL metro" has no relevance to the 1960s, although if Forsyth County is part of the "upper south," see the previous sentence. The fact the upper south grazes South Carolina does not make Strom Thurmond an Appalachian politician.
40  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The future of the GOP's demographics on: January 11, 2015, 09:25:11 pm
The keystone of the Southern Strategy was Nixon's working with Strom Thurmond to get his endorsement and behind the scenes support for the 1968 Republican nomination. Nixon's concessions included nominating Supreme Court justices who reflected Thurmond's vies and pulling back on federal enforcement of integration (this was nearly 15 years after Brown.)

Look up Nixon's first two nominations for the Supreme Court: they were from South Carolina and Georgia.

South Carolina and Georgia are not in the upper south.
41  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The future of the GOP's demographics on: January 11, 2015, 10:00:22 am
The "Southern Strategy" originally referred to the 68 campaign that went after the votes in the Outer South - areas that went for LBJ before voting for Nixon - and was about tapping into opposition to cultural liberalism and federal intrusion broadly, not just on racial issues.

Federal intrusion was largely about racial issues.

A lot of these areas had a very small if any black population.  Racial issues was the most obvious example of federal intrusion, but there was a symbolic and cultural resonance beyond that.  These places hated Yankee liberals a heck of a lot more than they hated blacks.

I appreciate how difficult it is, as someone from a different generation who has ethical values that are incompatible with racism, to acknowledge this recent history within your party.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 field: Enter Mitt Romney? on: January 10, 2015, 03:44:29 pm
We need Bush and Romney to go after each other.
43  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The future of the GOP's demographics on: January 10, 2015, 03:42:41 pm
The "Southern Strategy" originally referred to the 68 campaign that went after the votes in the Outer South - areas that went for LBJ before voting for Nixon - and was about tapping into opposition to cultural liberalism and federal intrusion broadly, not just on racial issues.

Federal intrusion was largely about racial issues.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boehner takes revenge: boots 2 congressmen from committees, more on the way on: January 09, 2015, 05:46:42 pm
The Rules Committee is central to how the Speaker runs the House and gets things done. This seems incredibly justifiable. It's not quite like booting them off the Appropriations or Ways and Means committees, which would be justifiable but more about dividing up spoils.
45  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: January 09, 2015, 09:30:09 am
How do you think it will change now that they've created a commission to do it?

I think it could help the GOP, since the Dems won't be able to gerrymander anymore.

When did the Dems gerrymander New York other than the state assembly? Not in 2012 or in 2002, certainly.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton should pick Booker on: January 07, 2015, 02:15:57 pm
I hate to bring this up, but it's awkward that Booker is neither openly gay nor married.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Majority Whip Spoke at White Supremacists Conference on: January 07, 2015, 08:16:35 am
Remember, you're dealing with generally elite liberal white people on the internet, the chances they've had many genuine interactions with average black people, let alone a black conservative, is likely pretty low.

bqhatevwr
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running on: January 06, 2015, 10:43:29 am
It's pretty sad that he's the best they have for 2016.

No kidding. A city councilman? I guess Portman is invulnerable.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Louie Gohmert running for Speaker on: January 06, 2015, 10:37:50 am
Quote
@daveweigel  
Another GOP member tells me he can't even reach his office bc the phones are jammed w anti-Boehner calls.

This is awesome. I hear America singing.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-19: Gibson retiring on: January 06, 2015, 08:10:35 am
Run, Torie, run!
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