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October 30, 2014, 07:20:59 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-02: With Terry (R) down in the polls, Republicans getting desparate on: October 17, 2014, 03:29:53 pm
Let's not forget, Obama won this district in 2008.

The legislature made it a tad more Republican after the census. I don't think he would have won it in 2012 on 2008 results.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 17, 2014, 11:50:24 am
She picks lousy years in which to run.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:46:49 am
I remember in 2010 how the bottom nearly fell out completely for the Dems in Iowa. IA-1 and IA-2 weren't considered competitive and then in the final weeks, the DCCC started spending money to support Braley and Loebsack which probably made the difference for them. It's why I have been taking Ernst's lead at face value.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Rasmussen: Cotton +3 on: October 17, 2014, 11:09:05 am

Yes, yes, and no and that's all I'll say. Wink
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Rasmussen: Cotton +3 on: October 17, 2014, 08:54:19 am

I've got three posters whose names begin with K on ignore until after Election Day.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 16, 2014, 03:16:18 pm
The electorate in GA, NC, VA, LA where Dems are doing quite well is more diverse, or differently diverse (large African-American population as opposed to more Latino or Native American), than in all the states where Dems are doing relatively poorly this year.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead on: October 16, 2014, 03:15:07 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
33  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is America A Natural GOP Gerrymander? on: October 16, 2014, 08:24:15 am
Baby Bullwinkle
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 16, 2014, 08:13:27 am


He's looking especially Voldemortish in this pic.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: October 16, 2014, 07:57:01 am
Pryor isnt going anywhere. Voter ID law struck.
That doesn't effect the race much.  Black turnout is going to be horrible no matter what.  It could actually hurt Pryor.  Those poor whites could now come out in droves to get him out of office.

Republican voting correlates heavily with wealth in southern states like Arkansas and Mississippi, as opposed to states like Connecticut where the relationship is flat.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november on: October 16, 2014, 07:54:52 am
This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 15, 2014, 09:01:50 pm
She's a great Dem candidate for Florida.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 15, 2014, 01:56:43 pm
The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 15, 2014, 11:05:52 am
Another article claiming that Udall's ground game and messaging will enable him to repeat Bennet's success.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/mark-udall-2014-is-like-michael-bennet-2010

I would not want to be 4 points down as an incumbent, even with a great ground game.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign on: October 14, 2014, 03:16:05 pm
Republican Congress=Tea Party Congress???

Ted Cruz is going to have a larger soapbox.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats - are you panicking right now? on: October 14, 2014, 11:57:54 am
More like, after living through what happened in 2010 from Scott Brown through election day, it's hard to get too upset over a historical inevitability coming to pass.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 14, 2014, 09:03:01 am

She was raising money. I doubt anyone noticed.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: October 14, 2014, 08:24:59 am
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/steve-vaillancourt-ann-kuster-ugly-as-sin



Quote
A New Hampshire state lawmaker thinks the outcome of the race for the state's 2nd congressional district will boil down to nothing more than the two female candidates' looks.

"Let's be honest. Does anyone not believe that Congressman Annie Kuster is as ugly as sin? And I hope I haven't offended sin," state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt (R) wrote Friday on New Hampshire politics blog NH Insider.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Poll: Impact of the incoming Tea Party Congress on Hillary Clinton's campaign on: October 14, 2014, 07:58:46 am
"week" should be "weak," but there's no way to edit.

It looks likely that Tea Party favorites like Joni Ernst and Tom Cotton will join Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and the non-Tea Party caucus majority in a new GOP majority in 2015 alongside a GOP House. Assuming Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, how does this shake up the 2016 race?
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SD-Sen: Pressler sat on board of company which defrauded investors on: October 13, 2014, 08:00:30 pm
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/larry-pressler-for-dc-mayor
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins in Georgia? on: October 12, 2014, 02:59:57 pm
Perdue/Perdue
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Georgia's voting backlog battle (Politico) on: October 12, 2014, 10:33:22 am
Has the SOS made the argument that delays and refusals to process voter registration forms are essential to preventing voter fraud yet?
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: hello I am calling out wormyguy for a detailed response to this on: October 12, 2014, 09:35:58 am
Wormyguy, this is the key paragraph on Stalin from your quote.

Quote
When he had talked with Cardinal Spellman on September 3, Roosevelt did not conceal his thoughts about Stalin and Eastern Europe. Stalin would receive Finland, the Baltic States, the eastern half of Poland, and Bessarabia [all the lands Stalin had coveted under his Pact with Hitler]. There was no point in opposing "these desires of Stalin, because he had the power to get them anyhow. So better give them gracefully."

Whatever Roosevelt said or felt, the fact was Stalin and the Red Army made the facts on the ground. The U.S. and British forces were going to demobilize after Hitler was defeated because they were democracies.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa and Colorado? on: October 12, 2014, 08:38:24 am
The polls say probably Ernst and very likely Gardner.

My heart says Braley and a toss-up in Colorado.

Mr brain remembers what republicans' hearts said in 2012 in response to polls showing Obama a clear winner and steers me back to the polls.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 12, 2014, 08:35:34 am
The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.
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