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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:29:32 am
Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
It is only early voting though Smiley

Ok, so you're banking on very large turnout on Election Day of white voters who vote more pro-Trump than the white voters (disproportionately elderly) who have shown up in large numbers so far.

I'm sorry, but that's a recipe for disappointment.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:13:17 am
Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN - WTHR: Trump +11 on: November 04, 2016, 11:55:37 am
Bayh Bayh Bayh
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 08:38:31 am
Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill Goes Into HRC Cabinet... on: November 04, 2016, 07:14:25 am
Hillary won't appoint more than one Senator to the cabinet. The pros of having McCaskill as Secretary of Department of Whatever surely aren't worth the cons of losing her seat.

I can't see Hillary appointing a lot of incumbents to the cabinet. She's too smart to do that, and she has a massive network of qualified supporters and yes-men within the federal bureaucracy.

I'm going on the assumption a Dem governor appoints a Dem senator to serve until 2018 anyway, and McCaskill wants to get out of the Senate rather than risk a loss. In that scenario, no net loss in the Senate and Clinton gains a strong female cabinet secretary.

If Koster loses or Missouri senate vacancies don't work that way, forget it.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill Goes Into HRC Cabinet... on: November 03, 2016, 06:14:07 pm
I disagree. This actually makes a whole lot of sense. Clinton and McCaskill get along, and unless she's gifted with an Akin again she is toast in 2018.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. House Members: Ryan is going to step down after Tuesday on: November 03, 2016, 06:13:14 pm
Chaffetz or Gohmert?
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Trump +1 in GA, +5 in AZ, +9 in TX on: November 03, 2016, 04:01:06 pm
These are... not bad for Clinton for those days.

Johnson too high, though.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump fails to GOTV in Israel, wins only 49 to 44 points in safe-R state on: November 03, 2016, 01:23:02 pm
I would love to know how the Pepe avatars respond to this.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 11:15:46 am
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%


Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

But there are how many Democrats in Butler County? 11?
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 09:24:13 am
It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 08:50:38 am
If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."
Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.

The quoted text refers to OhioŚcomparing to Florida results is apples and oranges.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 08:48:31 am
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread on: November 03, 2016, 08:09:26 am
Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 02, 2016, 04:25:18 pm
With Iowa and Ohio leaning Trump and Indiana and Missouri solidly Republican, where we're headed is a scenario where the Midwest votes like it's 2004 and everywhere else votes like it's 2008.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Monmouth: McGinty +3 on: November 02, 2016, 01:16:42 pm
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 on: November 02, 2016, 12:01:40 pm
Good numbers for McGinty in this poll - basically mirroring Presidential race.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:59:42 am
Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: November 02, 2016, 11:54:23 am
TargetSmart is in the field in Ohio, will have a poll out on Sunday/Monday.

Clinton +2
Portman +5
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:45 am
From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:46:22 am
This is rich. Apparently the Hispanic sample in the CNN NV poll was too small to list cross-tab data for Clinton vs. Kaine.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Susquehanna - PA: Clinton +2 (4-way) on: November 02, 2016, 11:39:29 am
Their final result in 2012 was Romney 49-45, so they aren't reliable. Trump is likely to win PA though.

Interesting. Do you think NJ might be in play for the Trumpster given some overflow of his strength in the Keystone State?
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 10:29:33 am
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