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3926  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 08:36:10 pm
Is Zogby a liberal- or conservative-slanted group?

Zogby is, well, Zogby,

He weights all his polls very aggresively.  Every Zogby is..., an adventure.

In 2002, he polled 17 races for the Senate.  He got 12 right, 5 wrong.

There are many times Zogby has been the ONLY guy to get a race right, there have been just as many times he has crashed and burned..

I would decribe him as massively erratic as opposed to partisan..  He works both sides of the street .. Smiley
3927  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 05, 2004, 08:32:28 pm
Kerry is up 10 in MIchigan...

Here is the link

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040405president.pdf

The distribution of voters by party ID in this sample seems a bit out.

Update! - The Survey USA sample showing Bush +9 in Arizona is also off - the other way... waaaay too many Republicans in that sample...

The chart below is from PEW



In this survey: (entire sample = 717)

Republicans - 195/717 = 27%
Democrats - 269/717 = 38%
Other - 232/717 = 32%
Don't know 21/717 = 3%

In This survey - (Likely Voters = 536)

Republicans - 163/536 = 30%
Democrats - 205/536 = 38%
Other - 152/536 = 32%

MICHIGAN - Likely Kerry State - Current Estimate - Kerry +5
3928  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 06:51:33 pm
Vorlon … how come you’ve moved PA back into the Dem column and NH back into the Bush column?

Everything I see on Pennsylvania right now is an absolute dead heat.  There is NOTHING I can find that gives either candidate an edge.

By default, if I cannot make a firm call, I give the state to the party that won it in 2000.

If the election was tomorrow, I'd look at the weather forcast.  

If it was a nice day I'd call the state for Kerry, If it was going to rain, I'd call it for Bush.

New Hamphire has, again to my surprise, moved along way back to Bush.  There are 4 polls in the last month with Bush up near the top of the Margin of Error.

Again, very, very close.  By default, I give it to the party that won it in 2000.
3929  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 06:43:01 pm
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

Another Zogby...
3930  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 06:37:44 pm
Interesting that it has been dropping, has it bottomed out though?

They are comparing it to November, when the Dems had no candidate...
3931  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 06:29:54 pm
A Mason Dixon Poll.

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

Mason Dixon is a good firm, other than the 625 person sample size which I still hate.  
+/- 3.92% 19 times out of 20.

+8 strikes me as a tad high for a lead.

This is excellent news for Bush, lousy news for Kerry...

But Hey.. It's still 30 weeks out... Smiley

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGAXBXSQOSD.html

Also... New Colorado poll with Bush + 9

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_2783338,00.html

FLORIDA - Marginal Bush State - Current Estimate - Bush +2
3932  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Who is a better candidate - Kerry or Gore....? on: April 04, 2004, 08:49:36 pm
Which of the two is a better candidate... and why...?

random economic stat...



3933  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush +2 in Ohio on: April 04, 2004, 10:05:13 am
Bush Holds Narrow Ohio Lead
April 4, 2004

http://www.dispatch.com/
http://www.onnnews.com/story.php?record=29671

President Bush leads challenger John Kerry by
only one percentage point in a poll published in The Columbus Dispatch.

Bush had 46% to 45% for Kerry with ten percent undecided. That's if the election features only the Republican incumbent against the Democratic challenger.

With consumer-advocate Ralph Nader in the race, Bush leads Kerry 45 percent to 43 percent, with Nader getting three percent and nine percent undecided.

© Associated Press and Dispatch Productions, Inc., 2004. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Nader must submit valid signatures from at least 5,000 registered Ohio voters by August 19th to qualify for the statewide ballot.

The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points. (implies a sample size of about 2400 or so)

Ohio is expected to be a battleground state in a race whose key issues include jobs and the economy. No Republican has been elected
president without winning Ohio.

Vorlon Note!

I know nothing about the validity, or not, of this poll yet.

It is about the same as the Terrance group poll showing Bush +4.7, other than that.. nothing to report...

3934  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 03, 2004, 11:12:17 pm
Vorlon, what about Rasmussen polling on weekends.  Doesn't that hurt Bush's weekend numbers.  I remember in 2000 he didn't poll on Sat night if I recall correctly.

"in theory" a properly designed sample will filter out the so called "weekend effect",

as a practical matter.. it "almost" does.. ya, there is probably about a 2 point weekly "ripple" in the data going every day...

Again, it's no big deal...
3935  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 03, 2004, 10:46:50 pm
I'd guess Kerry up 3 - 5 pts.  However, there didn't to seem to be more than a one or two pt spike nationally for Kerry in the middle of Clark according to Rasmussen.  Polls will drive us all crazy before this thing is done!

Rasmussen weights by Party Id - It levels out spikes, thats why they do it.

This poll did not do similar weighting, hence a big blip.

No surprises here ... Smiley

3936  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 03, 2004, 10:30:21 pm
Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks.. Smiley
3937  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll on: April 03, 2004, 08:40:00 pm

Here is a good way to interpret polls: take the last 6 polls, throw out the one with the highest for Bush and the one with the highest for Kerry and average the remaining 4.


And if the result of any one poll looks totally crazy... throw it out...

It's not like we have a shortage of polls Smiley
3938  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 03, 2004, 04:06:40 pm
The South is no different from anyother region... every state votes it's own way...


Huh?  Alot of regions have all of their states vote the same way...Pacific coast, Northeast, South, etc.

No... NC and AL do NOT vote in the same way...

They have in every presidential election since 1968.

Your map has a lot of blue.. Smiley
3939  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 03, 2004, 03:42:35 pm
I would add Arkansas to the solid Bush column (185 EV for Bush), and Maine and Iowa to the solid Kerry column (179 solid EV for Kerry).  Rasmussen has Kerry leading Bush by 10 points in Iowa, this appears pretty solid.  If you have other polling data from Iowa let me know.

Which leaves as our swing states, by my estimation:

Arizona 10 (lean Bush)
Florida 27
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)
Missouri 11 (lean Bush)
Nevada 5 (lean Bush)
New Hampshire 4 (lean Kerry)
New Mexico 5 (lean Kerry)
Ohio 20
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)
Pennsylvania 21
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)
Washington 11 (lean Kerry)
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)

Total Lean Bush: 37 EV (+185 solid = 222)
Total Lean Kerry: 64 EV (+179 solid = 243)
True Swingers: 73 EV
Total Swing States: 174 EV


I am really suprised about Iowa.... i expected a trending towards Bush same for MN not seen it in either... not sure you could place it as solid Kerry though.... But Maine isnt going to Bush IMHO...

I personally would keep Iowa on the "in play" list...

One or two polls does not a trend make... but thats a quibble, not a hard core disagreement...

Both parties internal polls have it close, and both are spending money there, which tells you something... in politics, as in life, if you want the truth, follow the cash...

Other than that...

You are, IMHO, pretty darn close.... Nothing there I would disagree with enough to call you wrong..

What is the old saying..?

 is it...

"Great Minds thing alike..."

or

"Fools never differ"

Should be one of those two anyway... Smiley

A few slight changes of nuance is all...

The Swing states, in order of likelyhood, starting with the most likely for Kerry, moving down to the most likely for Bush, I am more optimistic for Kerry in 4 states, more Optimistic for Bush in 6..

Washington 11 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Michigan 17 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Oregon 7 (lean Kerry)Lean to semi-solid Kerry
Minnesota 10 (lean Kerry)agreed
Wisconsin 10 (lean Kerry)agreed

West Virginia 5 (Tossup)Leans to Kerry

Delaware Officially placed in 'tossup" Category in honor of CBS news polling division

New Hampshire 4  (Lean Kerry)possible flip back to Bush?

lean Kerry - I agree.. but... two polls two weeks part by a semi-reliable firm had Bush +5 and +6, give me a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead and I'd flip this one back...

New Mexico 5 (lean Kerry)Pure tossup

Pennsylvania 21 (Tossup)Marginal Bush lean IMHO

Florida 27 (tossup)leans Bush

I think this state, while still close, I a lot stronger for Bush than folks think...

Ohio 20 (tossup)leans Bush

The GOP has a lot more money than the Dems... AND they go to absolute total war to save Ohio, if need be.. Cash counts in this one...

Nevada 5 (lean Bush)agreed
Missouri 11(lean Bush)agreed
Tennessee 11 (lean Bush)(almost a solid Bush)
Arizona 10(lean Bush) (almost a solid Bush)

3940  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 03, 2004, 12:49:34 pm
The South is solid Republican in any Presidential election against a Democratic nominee who is a non southern liberal.  Don't believe me?  Ask the last three Democratic nominees who fit that mold - McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis.  None came within double digits of carrying ANY Southern state.  Not one.  Facts are stubborn things.

However, facts work both ways.  Republicans are now dead in the water in the Northeast (outside of NH), Illinois, and California.  No matter how I wish it were otherwise it isn't going to make the GOP competitive in those areas.

A little more realism - on both sides.  Let's stick to the real battleground which is in the Midwest.

By my count, both parties have roughly equal numbers of base states they can count upon in terms of the Electoral college.

Solid Dem

District of Columbia   3
Rhode Island   4
Massachusetts   12
New York 31
Hawaii   4
Connecticut   7
Maryland   10
New Jersey   15
Delaware 3
Illinois   21
California   55
Vermont   3

Total = 168 EVs

Any Republicans here wanna place a bet on the GOP winning any state on this list...?

GOP States

Louisiana   9   
Virginia   13   
Colorado   9   
Georgia   15   
North Carolina   15   
Alabama   9   
Kentucky   8   
Indiana   11   
South Carolina   8   
Mississippi   6   
Kansas   6   
Texas   34   
Oklahoma   7   
South Dakota   3   
Montana   3   
North Dakota 3
Nebraska   5   
Alaska   3   
Idaho   4   
Wyoming   3   
Utah   5
   
Total   179 EVS

Any Democrats wanna place a bet on the Dems winning any of these states...?

Nuff said Smiley
3941  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 03, 2004, 01:06:33 am
Thanks.

Re Survey USA...

They cut a lot of corners...  

In a stable race they should be "ok" - but not great.  In a volitile or quickly change race, I'd have a lot of doubts.

They use pre-recorded voices to do their polling (not live operators) to cut costs, their sample sizes are a bit small, and they draw up their own phone lists.

They do however publish ALL their data which is great, if need be you can always go in and rework the raw data.

Not the worse guys on the block, but not top tier either.

Maybe a B- overall ...?
3942  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 02, 2004, 10:40:18 pm
Vorlon,
As always, great information.  Two specific questions. 1) where do you get the information on the preliminary data on the Terrance polling of Ohio?  I've been looking all over the net and haven't found anything. 2) where do you get the overnight individual day polling for Rasmussen.  I see the three day rolling average on his website but can't find the one night results.

And since I'm throwing questions at you, here's one more.  What do you think of the Survey USA state polls.  Seems they did ok in the 2002 Senate races.

Thanks in advance.

Rasmussen....

If you "right click" on the Rassmussen page and select "view source" you can actually get the HTML code that generates the page, and the graph Rasmussen draws of the tracking poll has the results to a tenth of a percent.. Smiley

He also published a seven day roll, to a tenth of a percent.  Between the 3 and 7 day rolls, it's easy enough to calculate the daily results.

Example...

I know that from day 1 to day 7  Candidate X had an average support of 50% - I thus know the total of the 7 days of polling was 350%

I know that on Day 3 his support was 51.5% - thus the total of Days 1 to 3 must have been 154.5

I know that on Day 6 his support was 49.0% - thus the totals of days  4-6 must have been 147.0

350 - 154.5 - 147 = Suport EXACTLY for day 7..

Do the same thing till you have any two consecutive days, and once you know two days in a row, the rest is easy...

The Terrance Group topline numbers are up on the subscription site at PollingReport.  This poll was commission by the GOP, and I still have a friend or two from when I worked on the "dark side".. she will email me the full version when she sees it.

A good site BTW (actually the site is crazy, but they have a lot of numbers) is http://prorev.com/amline3.htm
3943  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Wisconsin: Narrow Bush lead on: April 02, 2004, 10:10:26 pm
Meet the new map... same as the old map...

Delaware (3 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 13.06%

The wise men and women at CBS News / NYTimes polling has declared that this is indeed a battleground state.  Despite the fact that in 2000 it voted more heavily for Gore than such GOP bastions as Vermont and Illinois, I will in expression of my reverance for CBS polling officially be placing this state in the "Tossup" category...
   
Washington (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.58%

Some wise Republicans I know have told me this state is truly in play and that it was a lot closer than the 2000 results would suggest because Maria Cantwell who won Slade Gordon's old Senate seat in 2000 "pumped up" the Democrat numbers here by spending something like $8 million of her own money...

I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Michigan (17 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.13%

In addition to generalized job loses in manufacturing, Michigan has been getting double dipped because many Big 3 auto jobs are moving sount as Ford plants shut down in Michigan and Honda plants open up in the South.

Like Washington, I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Maine (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.11%

Maine can split their EVS.. who ever wins each of the 2 congressional districts get one EV per, and the winner overall of the sate gets the other two.  Maine 2 CD is very close.  I mention this because if Kerry wins WEst Virginia and New Hampshire, and all other states stay the same, the Electoral College would be 269/269....

Still leans Kerry

Pennsylvania  (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 4.17%

Eight (!) polls in the last two weeks showing anything from Kerry +3 to Bush +7.  Darn close right now, razor thin edge to Bush.  Pennsylvania is, from an economic perspective. the state(among those in the rust beat) that will feel first and most any pickup in jobs and manufacturing.  Based on the 308,000 new jobs in March (plus another 64,000 extra as they revised February upward) I am marginally confident in leaning this state to Bush.

Minnesota (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +2.40%

GOP is very energized in this state.  The "Get out the vote" effort from the GOP has gone from braindead to actually pretty decent in the last 6 years.  I still think if it gets "really" close a lot of Nader votes will "come home" and keep this one for Kerry, but it might be razor close...
   
Oregon   (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.44%   

NOBODY (at least not from this planet) really seems to understand this state politically.  Portland + Eugene are as democratic as it gets, the rest of the state is Deep Blue Bush. It's a battle of turnout.  Are the Tree Huggers more organized than the guys with the Chainsaws, or the other way around?

Haven't seen any polls from anybody I trust.  I'll leave it for Kerry for now.  That's not a "hard" call, just don't have enough evidence either way...

Iowa (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.31%

For reasons that are not totally clear to me, Iowa is trending to Kerry at this point - Polls are showing Kerry at high single digits for a lead.  No reason to flip this one.
   
Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.22%

4 polls I've seen, two show Bush leading, 2 show Kerry leading.  The Bush margins were bigger, but I trust the Kerry polls more... Wisconsin may bounce back fairly fast to Bush however if the new jobs trend stays good..
   
New Mexico (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.06%

Seen three polls, one with Kerry +2, one with a tie, and one with Bush +1.  I haven't got a clue on this state.  Toss a coin, leave it for carry, flip to Bush, take your pick ...Smiley
   
Florida (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%

Actually, I have this state pretty solid for Bush.  Florida's economy is actually  in darn good shape.  Brother Jeb is very popular (Despite all the "angry democrat" hyperventalating Brother Jeb won re-election in a semi-landslide of +13 in 2002)  I also don't think Dem turnout has anywhere to go - I think Gore/Brazille turned out every live voter, and a few dead ones too there was to have in 2000.

New Hampshire (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%

Two polls, two weeks apart by the same firm (ARG) has Bush +5 and +6.  ARG is not a wretched firm by any means, but not quite enough for me to flip this state back to Bush.  Less certain about Kerry taking this one than I was.  If I see a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead, I'd flip this state.. (I am surprised... I had this state semi-firm for Kerry a few weeks ago)

Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%

Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can't see a reason to flip this one from lean Bush

Ohio (20 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.51%

A real Battleground state.  Ohio has been hit quite hard economically, perhaps even more so than Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  Terrance Group just finished up the "Full Meal Deal" polling of Ohio and had Bush at + 4.7. Apparently they polled the $%$# out of all the swing counties like Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton, Lukas, and Stark, which tells me the GOP is a bit worried, or at least planning to shore things up early...

This is a firm I deeply respect, but think that this far out the way they do their likely voter models likely pads Bush's lead by a couple points.  Bush barely ahead seems about right to me.  I haven't seen a full set of results from Terrance Group yet, so my opinion is still a bit soft on this one.  Teeter/Hard has also polled the state and I think they publish on Monday.

Nevada (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.55%

Mason-Dixon has Bush at +11.  While I would be surprised if double digits holds, I'll keep this one leaning fairly hard Bush's way.

Tennessee (11 EVs)- 2000 Result Bush + 3.86%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Arkansas (6 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 5.44%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

West Virginia (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +6.32%

Too close to call.  Saw one poll a tie, the other Kerry +2.  Don't actually trust either poll, so I'll stick with "Lean Kerry" till I get something I trust.  

Louisiana (9 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +7.68%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Virginia (13 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +-8.04%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Colorado   (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +8.36%

Colorado is in play... in 2008... but not this year......
3944  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Kerry Raises $50 Million, Bush Tops It on: April 02, 2004, 06:42:23 pm
Money is great, IF MANAGED CORRECTLY. I've seen a very well financed campaign go down in flames due to ENORMOUS incompetence and staggering arrogance.

How is Howard Dean doing, anyway...?
3945  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:who is going to win? on: April 02, 2004, 04:30:42 pm
Bush is marginally ahead - but it is a very fragile marginally ahead...

Right Track / Wrong track polling shows -10 towards the wrong track side, normally that makes Bush roadkill.....

308,000 new jobs last month, if the trend holds Bush..., if not Kerry

It's the economy stupid!
3946  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll on: April 02, 2004, 04:25:21 pm
How good is the CBS/NYT poll usually?

This message brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department...  Smiley

CBSNews/NYTimes

2000 = dead on.
1980-1996 = utter disaster.

Did they "fix it" in 2000, or did they just get lucky...?

Not!  They have a history of being 8 points off the final result.


except in 2000... but then again CBS/NYT can't be the most impartial source?.... then again Fox polls are usally quite good...

I think that they just copied of of other polls to be honest and as for what Ben said, FOX/Oppinion Dynamics polls are usually quite accurate.

I think the reason the FoxNews polling is actually prettty darn good, while CBS/NYTimes is, historically, an utter distaster has more to do with knowledge than with idealogy.

Jason Blair not withstanding, I find it hard to believe CBS/NYTimes deliberately crank out biased polls...

Roger Alies, (sp?) the President of FoxNews was a true blue, died in the wool GOP consultant/partisan for decades before he started up with FoxNews. - He actually knows what a decent poll looks like, how it should be run, how to do things...  I suspect similar knowledge is just missing at CBS/NYTimes.

Hey.. these folks think Delaware a swing state... I think that says it all...
I think the issue is competence, not idealogy...
3947  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll on: April 02, 2004, 03:46:36 pm
I'm extremely keptical of the Battlegrounds states results.  There isn't any definite impact since Nevada could be 70-30 with the rest of the states being for Kerry, or a third of the Battleground people polled could have come from Iowa, or both.  Is there even a margin of error for the battleground ones?

Assuming that they got 40% of their 834 registered voters from the battleground states (which make up 40% of the population)
that would imply a Battleground sample size of 333 people, or so...
which would imply a margin or error of +/- 5.4%

Course that also assumes that CBS actually knows what thery are doing....

This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,024 adults, interviewed by telephone March 30-April 1,2004. The sample included 834 registered voters. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the samples of registered voters and all adults.Results which may have been valid were surgically altered to resemble Saddam Huissen.  The use of Tarot cards was employed to weight data that had been deemed unreliable by the use of dice and a roulette wheel.  Next, as an additional confirmation, a double check was performed against "Big Fred's" famous 100% all beef foot long hotdog poll.  Lastly, a random number generator, hooked to a rube/goldberg device was used to normalize all data
3948  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll on: April 02, 2004, 03:12:33 pm
How good is the CBS/NYT poll usually?

As I have previously posted, in 2000 they were almost dead on.

Their final call was Gore +1, which was very close to the actual of Gore +0.51.

If you look at the NYTimes/CBS in the elections 1980-1996 they were an utter total complete disaster (The were NEVER even within TWICE the margin of error of their poll - they AVERAGED a miss of 8+ percentage points)

Did they actually fix what was a clearly and fatally flawed poll to get it to work in 2000?,...

....or was 2000 simply a case of "even a broken clock being right twice a day...?"

We will see.


Smiley


3949  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll on: April 02, 2004, 02:57:46 pm
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml


In what must be the most inherently self contradictory poll I have seen in a while...

Nationally, Kerry is up 5 points, but in the 18 Battleground states Bush is up 2 points...

Delaware is a battleground state.. Even though Gore won by 13+% in 2000...?
Did something really big happen in Delaware that I missed...? (Perhaps a merger with Utah?)

For those of you have mastered math up to say, the grade 3 level, I will leave the anaylsis of this one up to you...

The "battleground states" that Bush leads by 2 points in  include Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin..

These states make up almost exactly 40% of the nation's vote total, so in the other 60% of the nation Kerry must be up by just a hair under 10 points...

This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,024 adults, interviewed by telephone March 30-April 1,2004. The sample included 834 registered voters. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the samples of registered voters and all adults. Results which may have been valid were surgically altered to resemble Saddam Huissen.  The use of Tarot cards was employed to weight data that had been deemed unreliable by the use of dice and a roulette wheel.  Next, as an additional confirmation, a double check was performed against "Big Fred's" famous 100% all beef foot long hotdog poll.  Lastly, a random number generator, hooked to a rube/goldberg device was used to normalize all data.

3950  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:April 1 - Rasmussen - Bush + 4.3%, +0.5%, +0.1% on: April 02, 2004, 10:26:05 am
Vorlon,

Perhaps you should not make a new thread for every day's Rasmussen.

It does happen every day.

Perhaps you should just start one thread for Rasmussed every week?

Just a suggestion.
I second that

Done!!!! - I will just change the heading of the thread - (ie change the date) and update the first post... Smiley

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