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3926  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush -1 without Nader, +4 with in New Jersey on: April 14, 2004, 12:50:05 pm

This poll doesn't make any sense....They have 19% undecided without Nader in the race, but only 3% undecided with Nader in the race.  How can Kerry's AND Bush's support go UP when you include Nader?

Normally I'd break this poll out to look at the numbers, but Bush +4 in New jersey...  Some results speak for themselves.. Cheesy

Three points...

It's a University Poll...
It's a University Poll...
It's a University Poll...

Cheesy

3927  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 13 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Kerry won Monday by 8.3% on: April 14, 2004, 12:33:34 pm
new map

Lets see it... Smiley

Come on man... its one of the few rays of light in my otherwise dull life... actually that isn’t too far off the truth... ahhhhh..... I hadn’t been to a gig since Christmas and then yesterday I helped force a band supporting the Yeah Yeah Yeahs off stage... man that’s living!... and then I was able to get crushed like the old days listening to the Yeah Yeah Yeahs... listen to them [hypnotic swirling pupils] the indie music is darn enjoyable.... sorry going way way off topic...

but seriously please post this map... as I do find your predictions very interesting... thanks… sorry about the rambling…  
 

Check back this evening

I have about 30 new state polls to go though, about half of them I actually trust... Cheesy
3928  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush +14 in Louisiania, Kerry +13 in Maine on: April 14, 2004, 12:30:16 pm
Youch, I'll have to get around to giving Bush Lousiana.

Also proves my point that Maine is out of reach.

What are your opinions on the polls?  Louisiana is supposed to be hard to poll.

Southern media is actually a decent firm, but hey, It's Louisiana.

There is an "old coot" (His own words) Named Vern Kennedy down there who seems to be the only guy who can poll that state.

The result seems a tad high for Bush to me, but that is pure gut reaction, not fact.

Maine seems about right.
3929  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush +4 in New Jersey...????? (!) on: April 14, 2004, 12:27:16 pm
Bush leads (Huh) John Kerry by 4% in a 3 way race with Nader, and is just 1% behind in a head to head matchup, according to this.. er, um, ah,.. "poll"....

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--poll--bush-kerry0413apr13,0,4323251.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

Just my opinion, but file this one in the same place as "Fred's 100% all beef Hot Dog Poll", "Zelda's Amazing Gypsy tarot Card Predictor" and, well Newsweek...

Bush +4 in New Jersey...

And I though I had a sense of Humor Cheesy

TRENTON, N.J. -- Fewer New Jerseyans support the war in Iraq but voters have not yet abandoned President George W. Bush for Democratic opponent John Kerry, according to a poll released Tuesday.

A Fairleigh-Dickinson PublicMind poll found that 47 percent of respondents agreed that the United States' decision to go to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, down from January when 55 percent supported the effort. A year ago, 67 percent agreed about the war.

The percentage of voters who believe the country is "on the wrong track" has increased by 10 percent from three months ago to 48 percent, but Bush still has widespread voter support.

Bush and Kerry are running closely in the poll. Forty percent of voters favor Bush, while 41 percent support Kerry. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the poll, the five percent he gets pushes Bush ahead with 48 percent compared to 44 percent for Kerry.

"Its far too early to see exactly how events in Iraq will affect the president in November's election, but it's clear the public is more deeply concerned after some difficult weeks in Iraq," said poll director Bruce Larson.

The PublicMind poll of 802 registered voters was conducted from April 3 through April 10. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
3930  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 14 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush "Won" Tuesday by 1.0% on: April 14, 2004, 12:20:11 pm
Bush won Tuesday night by a meaningless 1.0%
3931  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / National "Battleground" Poll on: April 13, 2004, 11:39:30 pm
About 2 weeks old... forgot to post..sorry Sad

http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/9701BGCharts.pdf
3932  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush +14 in Louisiania, Kerry +13 in Maine on: April 13, 2004, 11:31:04 pm
Bush +14

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=1453

Kerry +13

http://www4.fosters.com/news2004/March2004/March_10/News/reg_me_0310.04j.asp

3933  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:27:49 pm
The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

In Iraq, I would vote for massive, crushing, overwhelming military power.

This half way stuff is not wise.

Win, or leave.

Those are the only two sane positions, everything else is doomed to fail.
3934  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:lincoln chafee? on: April 13, 2004, 05:26:00 pm

Bush appointing Chafee to his adminstration would be handing the Dems a Senate seat.  Chafee is young and can win the seat for 30 years, but he's the only Republican who can hold it.  No matter how much trouble he causes, I'm sure Bush is happy to have him there.

There are some "odd" Senators, are there not in terms of being elected in unlikely places.

Collins/Snowe in Maine
Santorum in Pennsylvania
Dachle in South Dakota
Any Dem in the South
Chaffee in RI
Jeffords (when he was GOP) In vermont

lot more, but thats a quick list
3935  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:13:03 pm
Kerry will at least feint in those areas, probe the Bush campaign's reactions to him beginning to spend a few dollars and perhaps dig further to try and project what increased spending would do to his numbers.

There will be lots of "phony wars" in 2004

Bush will likely fake a run at Washington & Oregon, maybe Maine.  Kerry might pretend in Tennessee for a while.

I just don;t think Kerry can afford to go toe to toe in Florida, I think he can get better bang for his buck elsewhere (read Ohio)
3936  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:10:28 pm
My "guess" is that Kerry will NOT go after Florida this time.

Brother Jeb is real popular (Re-elected 13+%) and Florida damn near bankrupted Gore in 2000.

Gore only lost Ohio by 3.5%, and that was despite pulling out the media money 4 weeks out to keep up the war in Florida.

Just beacuse Penn/Ohio/WV/Michigan are all goegraphically together it makes sense to fight one war (in terms of media "spillage") than 2 or 3.

I doubt Kerry spends any money in California (or just enough to keep his doners happy ... ie spend $1 to raise $2 type of thing)

Can't quite make up my mind on Minnesota, wish there was a really good solid poll out of their from somebody we could trust...
3937  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 04:52:54 pm
It seems pretty clear that there will be a northern front in the war of 2004

Wisconsisn, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa.

Bush would like to add MIchigan to that list, Kerry would like to add Missouri.

Who thinks Kerry will launch a second front to try for any/all of the following:

Arizona / Colorado / New Mexico / Nevada.

A Key element in all this may be money.

Both Kerry and Bush will be spending the $75,000,000 (or so) in Federal money for their fall campaigns, however due to the timing of the conventions, Kerry will have to make his money last from late July to election day, while Bush only from Early September till election day.

Given the Bush has more money, (soft, hard, liquid, all types) I think Kerry may wish to avoid a larger war where, presumably, the Bush cash advantage would put him at a disadvantage.

Does anybody have any idea how much money "MoveON" and "MediaFund" etc actually have?

This may be an important factor if Kerry wants a "southwestern" front..?

Thoughts, ideas...?
3938  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:A question to the vorlon on: April 13, 2004, 03:45:40 pm
why do you keep bumping up dumb old threads?

Though some of them were either interesting today, or just to point out how things can change so much in a few months..

Remember "frountrunning" Howard Dean...?

3939  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 13 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Kerry won Monday by 8.3% on: April 13, 2004, 01:17:56 pm
new map
3940  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Election Odds on: April 12, 2004, 10:01:52 pm
It is?  I find it more fun to predict November.

Edit:  Ah, I see you have Kerry picking up Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as opposed to early today Wink

New batch of state polls came in
3941  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Election Odds on: April 12, 2004, 09:46:42 pm
Vorlon, isn't your prediction based on what's going to happen in November, not if it was held today?  You seem to change it based on whether the latest poll shows a candidate +1 or +3 ahead.  It seems like predicting on such a long term would smooth out your prediction to the monthly basis or something.

My map is "If the election was held today..." Cheesy
3942  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Nader sends 'SOS' for next test on: April 12, 2004, 02:41:00 pm
i think they want to get people to travel to TX and NC to stand in front of supermarkets and get sigs from the locals.

...if they put a Bush/Cheney poster up...they will have those sigs in no time.  Wink

In states like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc, I suspect Karl Rove has already collected all the signatures Nader needs to get on the Ballot.. Cheesy

...and that's just from the Graveyards... Wink

Thats just crazy.... recent polling suggest that dead people break 87/13% for the Democrats.., the GOP does poorly among the dead...

However enhanced GOTV efforts are working to improve that number...

By 2008 Karl Rove has commited to achieving graveyard parity with the Democrats Cheesy

3943  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Nader sends 'SOS' for next test on: April 12, 2004, 02:29:54 pm
i think they want to get people to travel to TX and NC to stand in front of supermarkets and get sigs from the locals.

...if they put a Bush/Cheney poster up...they will have those sigs in no time.  Wink

In states like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc, I suspect Karl Rove has already collected all the signatures Nader needs to get on the Ballot.. Cheesy
3944  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 12 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush + 1.8% - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 02:17:33 pm
Vorlon, who is the candidate?  do we know yet?

Nope - three people have declares so far.

We hope to top 1% this year!
3945  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 12 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush + 1.8% - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 01:17:39 pm
The Vorlon,

Who are you voting fo in this election?  Just wondering.

Libertarian.. Cheesy

The Ayn Rand stamp wasn't a big enough "hint" ...Cheesy
3946  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Newsweek Kerry +7 - UPDATED APRIL 11 - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 12:02:27 pm
Ask the Vorlon for avergaes...he knows how to calculate it.
Here are the daily break outs for Rasmussen:

             1 day               3 day              7 day
             BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY        
7-Apr   48.0   47.3   43.2   46.4   44.7   46.9
8-Apr   48.3   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.5   46.1
9-Apr   41.4   43.1   45.9   44.4   43.6   46.1
10-Ap   50.4   44.6   46.7   43.5   45.0   45.9
11-Ap   46.2   44.9   46.0   44.2   45.1   44.9
3947  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / McCain on talk of run with Kerry: 'No, no and no' on: April 11, 2004, 09:59:46 pm
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/11/mccain.veep/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Trying to stamp out speculation that he might consider joining Democratic Sen. John Kerry's ticket, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona insisted Sunday that he would not do so under any circumstances.

He said he would campaign and vote for President Bush in the fall, despite their policy differences.

"No, no and no. I will not leave the Republican Party. I cherish the ideals and principles of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan," he said on NBC's "Meet The Press."

"I will not be vice president of the United States under any circumstances. I feel that I can be far more effective in helping shape policy in the future of this country as a United States senator."

McCain, who ran a hard-fought and frequently contentious campaign against Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000, is a close friend of Kerry's and like him is a decorated veteran of the Vietnam War, having endured more than five years as a prisoner.

He raised eyebrows last month in an interview with ABC when he said that if Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, asked him to be his running mate, "Obviously, I would entertain it."

McCain went on to say that he thought such a scenario was impossible because the Democratic Party would never accept his conservative views on abortion, trade and national security.

He tried to quash the speculation raised by his comments by putting out a statement the same day saying he would not run.

Nevertheless, the chatter has persisted, fueled by media reports quoting Kerry advisers saying they think a Kerry-McCain ticket would be an unbeatable combination against Bush.

But McCain said Sunday that he believes Bush "deserves re-election."

"Have we agreed on every issue? Of course not. We didn't agree on every issue when we ran against each other in a primary," he said.

"I am not embarrassed to say that John Kerry is a friend of mine, but I want George Bush to be re-elected president of the United States."

McCain, 67, is running for re-election to his Senate seat.
3948  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Newsweek Kerry +7 - UPDATED APRIL 11 - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 11, 2004, 06:39:20 pm
Newsweek's poll has got to be the biggest pile of crap out there.  They did this all thru the 2000 campaign as well.  At least Fox News keeps it's Opinion Dynamics Poll separate from its political viewpoint.  Apparently, Newsweek just can't seem to be able to do that.  Their polling is just an arm of their editorial board.  Sheesh.

Wow.. what a shock... Newsweek showing a big Kerry lead, I would never have predicted that... oh wait I did predict that...

I expected Gallup to be close to even, so if you count Besh +3 as "close" so far we're batting a 1000 .... Cheesy Cheesy
3949  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 10 UPDATE : Unified Polling Thread - All polls, all the time on: April 11, 2004, 11:21:11 am

the substantive stuff that is in the minority

Dave is right.. Sad
3950  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 10 UPDATE : Unified Polling Thread - All polls, all the time on: April 11, 2004, 10:33:57 am


Nice graph Smiley

Devils down 2-0.. even nicer Cheesy
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