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3926  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 09, 2004, 08:12:56 am
I think Mason-Dixon is slanted to the right & even tho Rasmussen screwed up last election, I think their results lately are pretty accurate.  I agree that University polls are crap.  And Gallup is awesome.  SUSA is so far to the right.  As is ARG.  Keystone couldn't get any further to the right.  I think Quinnipac is quite good.

In 2002 Mason-Dixon polled 17 Senate races.  They got every single one right.

Hard to argue with that. Cheesy


The "real" Gallup (not the cnn/usatoday version) is still the gold standard. - Polling just does not get any better.

SUSA is not "right" they are just bad in a non-partisan way.
I disassembled to SUSA polls recently, the Kerry+10 in Michigan and the Bush +9 in Arizona, and both were just brutally unbalanced.

3927  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re:can bill clinton be vp? on: April 08, 2004, 08:00:52 pm
is it possible for bill clinton to be vp? i just wondered as i dont know the law on ex presidents.

No.

A candidate for VP must meet all the criteria for  president.

Bill has his two terms, hence cannor run for prez, hence cannot be vp.
3928  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1% on: April 08, 2004, 11:36:01 am
Moved to new thread... Smiley
3929  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Which side has the more effective TV ads? on: April 07, 2004, 08:52:37 pm
I watched some of them, and I think Bush's and Kerry's ads are both pretty mediocre. I have to give Bush an edge though. I think Kerry's ads aren't dynamic enough.

By the way, most of you probably know about this already, but The Living Room Candidate (http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/) has some great ads from past campaigns. I think many of Clinton's ads would work for Kerry too. He needs that "For People, for a Change" sort of message...

We all bitch and complain about negative ads.

Why do they keep running them then...?

Because they work.

Look at Kerry's negatives from 2 months ago, and look at them now.

Look at the "Kerry is a flip flopper" Then versus now...

Look at "Kerry will raise your taxes" then versus now...

Bush's approval rating is 45-47%, Kerry's is going to end up about the same.

Can't remember when the last time a sunny face positive campaign actuallly won..

Reagan in 84 I guess...



3930  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 07, 2004, 08:40:48 pm
To the all great polling guru The Vorlon...

What's up with your projection... innovative setup (I wanna steal it! Smiley Wink), but why on earth is it called March 4.jpg?

Anyway, great info here... I wish it was stickied Wink

Because it is a jpeg image, created on March4 originally...

Sometimes a cigar, is just a cigar... Smiley

I edit it as time goes on...
3931  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 07, 2004, 07:36:08 pm
I thought it might be useful to remind us about polling.

And as an after thought....

Polls go really haywire in July and August when folks are on vacation.  The barely work now, they really do off the deep end when the kids are out of school.

The good firms will compensate, but from the 2nd tier and below ones... expect some truly strange results...

In August if you see Kerry with in the margin of error of Bush in Idaho, or Bush "closing fast" in Rhode Island... just remember this post... Smiley
3932  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Kerry Says He Would Cap Federal Spending on: April 07, 2004, 05:27:45 pm
this along with his call to cut corporate taxes are shrewd moves on his run to the center.

and certainly goes against his 'tax and spend' label that Bush/Rove have been slapping on him.


The question is....how is he going to deliver on the programs he is pushing?

Somebody (I forget who, but it was a good line) discribed the 2000 GOP convention, roughly as follows...

"A bunch of Conservatives, pretending to be LIberals, so that Moderates don't think they are too scary..."

I suspect that Kerry's kick at the can with Business tax cuts, spendings caps is the same logic, just in reverse...
3933  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Kerry hires Mike Dukakis' campaign Manager... on: April 07, 2004, 05:00:35 pm
John Sasso, who was rather high up in Mike Dukakis' 1988 presidential bid has just been brought on board the Kerry campaign...

If I was a Democrat, I am not sure I would like the "optics" of this...

Hired by Kerrry....

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0402c.html

Fired by Dukakis...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/frenzy/biden.htm

 
3934  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen-Kerry surges on: April 07, 2004, 04:10:20 pm
Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8


Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

Thats why I post them... it's a public service... Smiley
3935  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen-Kerry surges on: April 07, 2004, 03:29:24 pm
Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8
3936  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Is Arizona in Play for the Democrats? on: April 07, 2004, 01:27:30 pm
While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November.  Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10

While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead.   I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.

Hoops


There is a surveyUSA poll recently showing Bush up 9.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040319president.pdf


I am, however, having serious concerns about the results Suvey USA is producing.

Their poll show Kerry +10 in Michigan was was out, the sample was clearly way skewed with too many democrats, similarly the Arizona Poll had way to may republicans.

Arizona was quite close in 2000, and while Bush does do fairly well for a Republican with Hispanics, fairly well means 40% when you are a republican.

This one is still "lean" bush, but would not call it solid by any means.
3937  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing? on: April 06, 2004, 06:43:16 pm
Democratic States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Pennsylvania

I have Bush very marginally ahead right now

Wisconsin

Currently, at best, a dead heat, perhaps Bush is oh so slightly ahead...

Iowa

Both sides are spending heavily - that tells me, polls not withstanding, it will be close

New Mexico

Gore won by 377 votes.  Flip a coin.

Oregon

I expect Kerry to prevail, even if only because Nader voters come home.  Bush may make Kerry spend some money here, however.

Minnesota

If this one gets legitimately close, Kerry is in DEEP trouble...

Bush States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Ohio

IT is just about impossible to construct a (reasonable)scenario where Bush loses Ohio, and still wins the election

The GOP will go too total absolute war to save this state.

Florida

I think Bush is kinda safe actually in Florida, but again, hard to see how he wins without it.

West Virginia

A natural Democratic state.  I expect it will flip back to "home" and go for Kerry.

New Hampshire

Recent polls do have Bush marginally ahead, but this is Kerry's backyard.  I have to think this one is no more than 60/40 likelyhood that Bush holds.






3938  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry Regains Lead As Events Roil Poll Data on: April 06, 2004, 12:39:53 pm
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040406/bs_ibd_ibd/200446feature&cid=1471&ncid=1926

 Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index hit a new low in April, falling 1.4 points to 49.5. It's the first time the index has been under 50 since Bush took office.

IDB/TIPP is a very solid firm.  

Take this poll at face value.

It's "registered voters" so tack a couple onto Bush's total for "likely voter" number, but hey -2 and 0 are the same number, so it really matters not.

Beyond the straight "horserace" question, which is well within the margin or error,  their "numbers behind the numbers" (Presidential Leadership index, etc...) are very much worth a close look.

Good news for Kerry, Bad news for Bush
3939  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Are there three critical swing states? on: April 06, 2004, 11:40:47 am
Yes. Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20) will decide the election.  The candidate who wins two of those probably has it in the bag, and if somebody takes all three, it's over.

Florida is actually semi-safe for Bush in 2004.

Ohio, Pennsyalvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia are where the real battle ground will be for 2004 - IMHO.

These four are all razor close right now, and I expect one candidate or the other will win all four.

It is possible that we might add Michigan to this list, but I think Michigan is likely a "bridge too far" for Bush.

I also think New Mexico/Arizona/Nevada (maybe Colorado?) might be another mini-front in the 2004 war (Where I would recomend kerry go If I were on his staff)

I think Kerry's VP choice may tell us a lot where the Dems think the battle will be.
3940  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 06, 2004, 08:28:32 am
Vorlon, that prediction in your signature, it is identical to the 2000 result with the exception of West Virgina, isn't it?

Yes.

I have started with 2000 as a baseline, and move a state when there is enough evidence to do so...

Last month it did not look at all like 2000... Smiley

I just moved Pensylvania from Bush to Kerry, and New Hampshire from Kerry to Bush as well...

3941  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 06, 2004, 08:22:08 am
I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

Welcome to the boards.. :0

Nice to have somebody from such a key state aboard!

How is the economy where you are, and how is affirmative action playing in your state?
3942  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 11:21:08 pm
florida:

Bush/Cheney 56%
Kerry Edwards 43%

I think Kerry will eek out Florida in the end.  I still have faith that Bush is going to look like a jackass in the debates.  

Florida:

Kerry/Edwards- 50.50%
Bush/Cheney- 49.75%

50.50% + 49.75% = 100.25%

Surely there is more than .25% voter fraud in Dade, Broward, & Palm counties... Smiley
3943  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 10:49:46 pm
As bad news as the Mason Dixon Florida poll is for Kerry, Michigan Survey USA poll showing Kerry up 51 - 41 has got to lift the spirits of the Kerry faithful.  I expected Michigan to have Kerry up 3 to 5 pts.

We are truly two nations.  Culturally, Socially, politically.  Red and blue states might as well be two separate countries.  

Mason Dixons a real good firm, but +8 for Bush in Florida is a tad high IMHO.

Similarly, I think +10 for Kerry in Michigan is a tad over the top..

Kerry +5 in Michigan
Bush +2 in Florida.

That would be the consensus estimate.

3944  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / TIED in Michigan...? on: April 05, 2004, 09:44:48 pm
No, actually the poll shows Kerry at +10.  Cheesy   Cheesy

Just figured I'd toss an "Educational Feature" into the mix...

The thread on Kerry +10 in Michigan is an example of an unweighted poll.

Purely as an educational example I "reweighted" the raw data in this poll using the 2% GOP party ID advantage suggested by the PEW data..

NOTE - I DO NOT SUGGEST IN ANY WAY THAT THIS REWEIGHTED RESULT IS THE "RIGHT" ONE, OR IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF REALITY THANT THE SUSA POLL.

THIS IS "PURELY" AN EDUCATIONAL EXAMPLE.

(ok.. that is enough disclaimers)

Raw Results

                 Party ID      
         GOP        DEM        IND
Bush   147   10   60
Kerry   9   182   78
Other   7   13   17

Raw Results as Percentages

        GOP       DEM       IND
Bush   90.18%   4.88%   38.71%
Kerry   5.52%   88.78%   50.32%
Other   4.29%   6.34%   10.97%


x   0.38   0.36   0.26   (Assumed Party ID in Likely voters)

BUSH   0.342699387 + 0.017560976    + 0.08516129  = 44.5%
KERRY   0.020981595 + 0.319609756   + 0.110709677  = 45.1%
OTHER   0.016319018 + 0.022829268   + 0.024129032  = 6.3%

Final Result..

Bush 44.5%
Kerry 45.1%
Other 6.3%

NOTE - I pulled 38/36/26 TOTALLY out of my hat, I would have to look at election data for a day or two to know the "right" number to use...

Again, this is simply an educational example, but it does show the huge impact that the weighting pollsters do can have on the final result.

The way some of these polls are so massively weighted, at the end of the day you are trusting the pollster as much as you are trusting their survey and sample....
3945  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 08:36:10 pm
Is Zogby a liberal- or conservative-slanted group?

Zogby is, well, Zogby,

He weights all his polls very aggresively.  Every Zogby is..., an adventure.

In 2002, he polled 17 races for the Senate.  He got 12 right, 5 wrong.

There are many times Zogby has been the ONLY guy to get a race right, there have been just as many times he has crashed and burned..

I would decribe him as massively erratic as opposed to partisan..  He works both sides of the street .. Smiley
3946  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 05, 2004, 08:32:28 pm
Kerry is up 10 in MIchigan...

Here is the link

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040405president.pdf

The distribution of voters by party ID in this sample seems a bit out.

Update! - The Survey USA sample showing Bush +9 in Arizona is also off - the other way... waaaay too many Republicans in that sample...

The chart below is from PEW



In this survey: (entire sample = 717)

Republicans - 195/717 = 27%
Democrats - 269/717 = 38%
Other - 232/717 = 32%
Don't know 21/717 = 3%

In This survey - (Likely Voters = 536)

Republicans - 163/536 = 30%
Democrats - 205/536 = 38%
Other - 152/536 = 32%

MICHIGAN - Likely Kerry State - Current Estimate - Kerry +5
3947  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 06:51:33 pm
Vorlon … how come you’ve moved PA back into the Dem column and NH back into the Bush column?

Everything I see on Pennsylvania right now is an absolute dead heat.  There is NOTHING I can find that gives either candidate an edge.

By default, if I cannot make a firm call, I give the state to the party that won it in 2000.

If the election was tomorrow, I'd look at the weather forcast.  

If it was a nice day I'd call the state for Kerry, If it was going to rain, I'd call it for Bush.

New Hamphire has, again to my surprise, moved along way back to Bush.  There are 4 polls in the last month with Bush up near the top of the Margin of Error.

Again, very, very close.  By default, I give it to the party that won it in 2000.
3948  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New Zogby - Bush +1 w/Nader, Kerry +2 wo/Nader on: April 05, 2004, 06:43:01 pm
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

Another Zogby...
3949  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 06:37:44 pm
Interesting that it has been dropping, has it bottomed out though?

They are comparing it to November, when the Dems had no candidate...
3950  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 06:29:54 pm
A Mason Dixon Poll.

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

Mason Dixon is a good firm, other than the 625 person sample size which I still hate.  
+/- 3.92% 19 times out of 20.

+8 strikes me as a tad high for a lead.

This is excellent news for Bush, lousy news for Kerry...

But Hey.. It's still 30 weeks out... Smiley

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGAXBXSQOSD.html

Also... New Colorado poll with Bush + 9

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_2783338,00.html

FLORIDA - Marginal Bush State - Current Estimate - Bush +2
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