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3926  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gallup (the real one) Bush +3 on: April 09, 2004, 09:01:36 pm
very briefly:  registered voters vs likely voters?

the 45ish % who rarely vote trend heavily democratic.  The news is bad (iraq) hence those who rarely vote are voting more so for Kerry, if they actually voted.

The "gap" between likely (+3 Bush) and registered (Kerry +2) of 5 points is, historically quite high - usually it's 3 points or so....
3927  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Gallup - Bush +3 wo/Nader, +4 w/Nader on: April 09, 2004, 08:50:53 pm
A tad higher for Bush than I expected, but still a dead heat given the +/- 4% MOE

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=11260



Likely Voters



Registered Voters

3928  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry +5 w/Nader, +6 wo/Nader says ARG... on: April 09, 2004, 10:58:27 am
Kerry +6 amoung registered voters..

No surprise here either...

http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

April 9, 2004

Kerry Maintains Lead Over Bush

John Kerry continues to maintain his lead over George W. Bush among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 50% say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush. In March, Kerry was at 50% and Bush was at 43%. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 48% say they would vote for Kerry, 43% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader. This is unchanged from March.

The results presented here are based on 770 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. The interviews were completed April 6 through 9, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
 
3929  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re:can bill clinton be vp? on: April 09, 2004, 10:39:05 am
This is on the Presidential Election Process board. My answer is yes he can. Article XXII states that a person who has served two terms or more than 6 years, can not run for the office of the Presidency. Running for the office of the Vice Presidency would not be included in this.

Wrong   Cheesy

Amendment XII - Choosing the President, Vice-President. Ratified 6/15/1804. Note History The Electoral College

The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;

The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two- thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
3930  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / AP/IPSOS - Bush +1 on: April 09, 2004, 08:43:26 am
Another Dead heat..

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040409/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&cid=694&ncid=716

3931  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 09, 2004, 08:34:11 am
Survey USA is not to the right.  See Kerry +10 in Michigan.

The Arizona Bush+9 from SUSA and the Kerry+10 in Michigan were both just waaaay out there...
3932  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 09, 2004, 08:25:56 am
Quote
have models been developed which accurately predict small changes due to projected voter registration trends?  say, based on studied movement in registration drive efforts.  are the accounted for in any polls?  I suppose that might contribute more uncertainty.

There are two "religious faiths" in polling.

There are those who weight their samples for things like party Id, and there are those who don't.

Which faith is the correct one is unclear based upon the historic record.

Gallup, which does not weight, can go toe to toe with anybody and over the long term look pretty good...

Those who DO weight for things such as party id need to make darn sure their weighting assumptions are correct, because if they are wrong, the poll goes right off the rails.

To directly answer your question, Yes, changes in demographics, party Id, etc are incorporated into the polling models used.

Like any field of endeavor, there are some firms that are just a lot better at getting it done right.

I guess my take is that if you look over the long, long term both "religious faiths" have similar track records if you compare equal quality firms.

Those who weight will usually be a bit more accurate, but on the occassions when they do miss, they miss by a lot more...

Gallup, by contrast will usually miss the mark by a bit more than the others, but will rarely have the huge misses that the "weighters" now and then run into..


3933  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 09, 2004, 08:12:56 am
I think Mason-Dixon is slanted to the right & even tho Rasmussen screwed up last election, I think their results lately are pretty accurate.  I agree that University polls are crap.  And Gallup is awesome.  SUSA is so far to the right.  As is ARG.  Keystone couldn't get any further to the right.  I think Quinnipac is quite good.

In 2002 Mason-Dixon polled 17 Senate races.  They got every single one right.

Hard to argue with that. Cheesy


The "real" Gallup (not the cnn/usatoday version) is still the gold standard. - Polling just does not get any better.

SUSA is not "right" they are just bad in a non-partisan way.
I disassembled to SUSA polls recently, the Kerry+10 in Michigan and the Bush +9 in Arizona, and both were just brutally unbalanced.

3934  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re:can bill clinton be vp? on: April 08, 2004, 08:00:52 pm
is it possible for bill clinton to be vp? i just wondered as i dont know the law on ex presidents.

No.

A candidate for VP must meet all the criteria for  president.

Bill has his two terms, hence cannor run for prez, hence cannot be vp.
3935  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1% on: April 08, 2004, 11:36:01 am
Moved to new thread... Smiley
3936  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Which side has the more effective TV ads? on: April 07, 2004, 08:52:37 pm
I watched some of them, and I think Bush's and Kerry's ads are both pretty mediocre. I have to give Bush an edge though. I think Kerry's ads aren't dynamic enough.

By the way, most of you probably know about this already, but The Living Room Candidate (http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/) has some great ads from past campaigns. I think many of Clinton's ads would work for Kerry too. He needs that "For People, for a Change" sort of message...

We all bitch and complain about negative ads.

Why do they keep running them then...?

Because they work.

Look at Kerry's negatives from 2 months ago, and look at them now.

Look at the "Kerry is a flip flopper" Then versus now...

Look at "Kerry will raise your taxes" then versus now...

Bush's approval rating is 45-47%, Kerry's is going to end up about the same.

Can't remember when the last time a sunny face positive campaign actuallly won..

Reagan in 84 I guess...



3937  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 07, 2004, 08:40:48 pm
To the all great polling guru The Vorlon...

What's up with your projection... innovative setup (I wanna steal it! Smiley Wink), but why on earth is it called March 4.jpg?

Anyway, great info here... I wish it was stickied Wink

Because it is a jpeg image, created on March4 originally...

Sometimes a cigar, is just a cigar... Smiley

I edit it as time goes on...
3938  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Which polls can we trust...? on: April 07, 2004, 07:36:08 pm
I thought it might be useful to remind us about polling.

And as an after thought....

Polls go really haywire in July and August when folks are on vacation.  The barely work now, they really do off the deep end when the kids are out of school.

The good firms will compensate, but from the 2nd tier and below ones... expect some truly strange results...

In August if you see Kerry with in the margin of error of Bush in Idaho, or Bush "closing fast" in Rhode Island... just remember this post... Smiley
3939  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Kerry Says He Would Cap Federal Spending on: April 07, 2004, 05:27:45 pm
this along with his call to cut corporate taxes are shrewd moves on his run to the center.

and certainly goes against his 'tax and spend' label that Bush/Rove have been slapping on him.


The question is....how is he going to deliver on the programs he is pushing?

Somebody (I forget who, but it was a good line) discribed the 2000 GOP convention, roughly as follows...

"A bunch of Conservatives, pretending to be LIberals, so that Moderates don't think they are too scary..."

I suspect that Kerry's kick at the can with Business tax cuts, spendings caps is the same logic, just in reverse...
3940  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Kerry hires Mike Dukakis' campaign Manager... on: April 07, 2004, 05:00:35 pm
John Sasso, who was rather high up in Mike Dukakis' 1988 presidential bid has just been brought on board the Kerry campaign...

If I was a Democrat, I am not sure I would like the "optics" of this...

Hired by Kerrry....

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0402c.html

Fired by Dukakis...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/frenzy/biden.htm

 
3941  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen-Kerry surges on: April 07, 2004, 04:10:20 pm
Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8


Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

Thats why I post them... it's a public service... Smiley
3942  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen-Kerry surges on: April 07, 2004, 03:29:24 pm
Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8
3943  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Is Arizona in Play for the Democrats? on: April 07, 2004, 01:27:30 pm
While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November.  Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10

While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead.   I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.

Hoops


There is a surveyUSA poll recently showing Bush up 9.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040319president.pdf


I am, however, having serious concerns about the results Suvey USA is producing.

Their poll show Kerry +10 in Michigan was was out, the sample was clearly way skewed with too many democrats, similarly the Arizona Poll had way to may republicans.

Arizona was quite close in 2000, and while Bush does do fairly well for a Republican with Hispanics, fairly well means 40% when you are a republican.

This one is still "lean" bush, but would not call it solid by any means.
3944  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing? on: April 06, 2004, 06:43:16 pm
Democratic States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Pennsylvania

I have Bush very marginally ahead right now

Wisconsin

Currently, at best, a dead heat, perhaps Bush is oh so slightly ahead...

Iowa

Both sides are spending heavily - that tells me, polls not withstanding, it will be close

New Mexico

Gore won by 377 votes.  Flip a coin.

Oregon

I expect Kerry to prevail, even if only because Nader voters come home.  Bush may make Kerry spend some money here, however.

Minnesota

If this one gets legitimately close, Kerry is in DEEP trouble...

Bush States in Grave Danger:

(in order of devasting impact to the campaign)

Ohio

IT is just about impossible to construct a (reasonable)scenario where Bush loses Ohio, and still wins the election

The GOP will go too total absolute war to save this state.

Florida

I think Bush is kinda safe actually in Florida, but again, hard to see how he wins without it.

West Virginia

A natural Democratic state.  I expect it will flip back to "home" and go for Kerry.

New Hampshire

Recent polls do have Bush marginally ahead, but this is Kerry's backyard.  I have to think this one is no more than 60/40 likelyhood that Bush holds.






3945  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry Regains Lead As Events Roil Poll Data on: April 06, 2004, 12:39:53 pm
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ibd/20040406/bs_ibd_ibd/200446feature&cid=1471&ncid=1926

 Kerry leads Bush 45% to 43% among registered voters in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, a statistical dead heat. Left wing independent Ralph Nader gets 5%. Another 8% are undecided. In the second week of March, Bush led 45% to 40%.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index hit a new low in April, falling 1.4 points to 49.5. It's the first time the index has been under 50 since Bush took office.

IDB/TIPP is a very solid firm.  

Take this poll at face value.

It's "registered voters" so tack a couple onto Bush's total for "likely voter" number, but hey -2 and 0 are the same number, so it really matters not.

Beyond the straight "horserace" question, which is well within the margin or error,  their "numbers behind the numbers" (Presidential Leadership index, etc...) are very much worth a close look.

Good news for Kerry, Bad news for Bush
3946  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Are there three critical swing states? on: April 06, 2004, 11:40:47 am
Yes. Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20) will decide the election.  The candidate who wins two of those probably has it in the bag, and if somebody takes all three, it's over.

Florida is actually semi-safe for Bush in 2004.

Ohio, Pennsyalvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia are where the real battle ground will be for 2004 - IMHO.

These four are all razor close right now, and I expect one candidate or the other will win all four.

It is possible that we might add Michigan to this list, but I think Michigan is likely a "bridge too far" for Bush.

I also think New Mexico/Arizona/Nevada (maybe Colorado?) might be another mini-front in the 2004 war (Where I would recomend kerry go If I were on his staff)

I think Kerry's VP choice may tell us a lot where the Dems think the battle will be.
3947  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 06, 2004, 08:28:32 am
Vorlon, that prediction in your signature, it is identical to the 2000 result with the exception of West Virgina, isn't it?

Yes.

I have started with 2000 as a baseline, and move a state when there is enough evidence to do so...

Last month it did not look at all like 2000... Smiley

I just moved Pensylvania from Bush to Kerry, and New Hampshire from Kerry to Bush as well...

3948  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry +10 in Michigan on: April 06, 2004, 08:22:08 am
I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

Welcome to the boards.. :0

Nice to have somebody from such a key state aboard!

How is the economy where you are, and how is affirmative action playing in your state?
3949  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 11:21:08 pm
florida:

Bush/Cheney 56%
Kerry Edwards 43%

I think Kerry will eek out Florida in the end.  I still have faith that Bush is going to look like a jackass in the debates.  

Florida:

Kerry/Edwards- 50.50%
Bush/Cheney- 49.75%

50.50% + 49.75% = 100.25%

Surely there is more than .25% voter fraud in Dade, Broward, & Palm counties... Smiley
3950  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush 51/43 in Florida - 56% Approval Rating - Mason-Dixon on: April 05, 2004, 10:49:46 pm
As bad news as the Mason Dixon Florida poll is for Kerry, Michigan Survey USA poll showing Kerry up 51 - 41 has got to lift the spirits of the Kerry faithful.  I expected Michigan to have Kerry up 3 to 5 pts.

We are truly two nations.  Culturally, Socially, politically.  Red and blue states might as well be two separate countries.  

Mason Dixons a real good firm, but +8 for Bush in Florida is a tad high IMHO.

Similarly, I think +10 for Kerry in Michigan is a tad over the top..

Kerry +5 in Michigan
Bush +2 in Florida.

That would be the consensus estimate.

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