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3926  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Bush +14 in Louisiania, Kerry +13 in Maine on: April 13, 2004, 11:31:04 pm
Bush +14

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=1453

Kerry +13

http://www4.fosters.com/news2004/March2004/March_10/News/reg_me_0310.04j.asp

3927  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:27:49 pm
The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

In Iraq, I would vote for massive, crushing, overwhelming military power.

This half way stuff is not wise.

Win, or leave.

Those are the only two sane positions, everything else is doomed to fail.
3928  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:lincoln chafee? on: April 13, 2004, 05:26:00 pm

Bush appointing Chafee to his adminstration would be handing the Dems a Senate seat.  Chafee is young and can win the seat for 30 years, but he's the only Republican who can hold it.  No matter how much trouble he causes, I'm sure Bush is happy to have him there.

There are some "odd" Senators, are there not in terms of being elected in unlikely places.

Collins/Snowe in Maine
Santorum in Pennsylvania
Dachle in South Dakota
Any Dem in the South
Chaffee in RI
Jeffords (when he was GOP) In vermont

lot more, but thats a quick list
3929  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:13:03 pm
Kerry will at least feint in those areas, probe the Bush campaign's reactions to him beginning to spend a few dollars and perhaps dig further to try and project what increased spending would do to his numbers.

There will be lots of "phony wars" in 2004

Bush will likely fake a run at Washington & Oregon, maybe Maine.  Kerry might pretend in Tennessee for a while.

I just don;t think Kerry can afford to go toe to toe in Florida, I think he can get better bang for his buck elsewhere (read Ohio)
3930  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 05:10:28 pm
My "guess" is that Kerry will NOT go after Florida this time.

Brother Jeb is real popular (Re-elected 13+%) and Florida damn near bankrupted Gore in 2000.

Gore only lost Ohio by 3.5%, and that was despite pulling out the media money 4 weeks out to keep up the war in Florida.

Just beacuse Penn/Ohio/WV/Michigan are all goegraphically together it makes sense to fight one war (in terms of media "spillage") than 2 or 3.

I doubt Kerry spends any money in California (or just enough to keep his doners happy ... ie spend $1 to raise $2 type of thing)

Can't quite make up my mind on Minnesota, wish there was a really good solid poll out of their from somebody we could trust...
3931  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ? on: April 13, 2004, 04:52:54 pm
It seems pretty clear that there will be a northern front in the war of 2004

Wisconsisn, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa.

Bush would like to add MIchigan to that list, Kerry would like to add Missouri.

Who thinks Kerry will launch a second front to try for any/all of the following:

Arizona / Colorado / New Mexico / Nevada.

A Key element in all this may be money.

Both Kerry and Bush will be spending the $75,000,000 (or so) in Federal money for their fall campaigns, however due to the timing of the conventions, Kerry will have to make his money last from late July to election day, while Bush only from Early September till election day.

Given the Bush has more money, (soft, hard, liquid, all types) I think Kerry may wish to avoid a larger war where, presumably, the Bush cash advantage would put him at a disadvantage.

Does anybody have any idea how much money "MoveON" and "MediaFund" etc actually have?

This may be an important factor if Kerry wants a "southwestern" front..?

Thoughts, ideas...?
3932  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:A question to the vorlon on: April 13, 2004, 03:45:40 pm
why do you keep bumping up dumb old threads?

Though some of them were either interesting today, or just to point out how things can change so much in a few months..

Remember "frountrunning" Howard Dean...?

3933  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 13 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Kerry won Monday by 8.3% on: April 13, 2004, 01:17:56 pm
new map
3934  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Election Odds on: April 12, 2004, 10:01:52 pm
It is?  I find it more fun to predict November.

Edit:  Ah, I see you have Kerry picking up Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as opposed to early today Wink

New batch of state polls came in
3935  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Election Odds on: April 12, 2004, 09:46:42 pm
Vorlon, isn't your prediction based on what's going to happen in November, not if it was held today?  You seem to change it based on whether the latest poll shows a candidate +1 or +3 ahead.  It seems like predicting on such a long term would smooth out your prediction to the monthly basis or something.

My map is "If the election was held today..." Cheesy
3936  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Nader sends 'SOS' for next test on: April 12, 2004, 02:41:00 pm
i think they want to get people to travel to TX and NC to stand in front of supermarkets and get sigs from the locals.

...if they put a Bush/Cheney poster up...they will have those sigs in no time.  Wink

In states like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc, I suspect Karl Rove has already collected all the signatures Nader needs to get on the Ballot.. Cheesy

...and that's just from the Graveyards... Wink

Thats just crazy.... recent polling suggest that dead people break 87/13% for the Democrats.., the GOP does poorly among the dead...

However enhanced GOTV efforts are working to improve that number...

By 2008 Karl Rove has commited to achieving graveyard parity with the Democrats Cheesy

3937  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Nader sends 'SOS' for next test on: April 12, 2004, 02:29:54 pm
i think they want to get people to travel to TX and NC to stand in front of supermarkets and get sigs from the locals.

...if they put a Bush/Cheney poster up...they will have those sigs in no time.  Wink

In states like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc, I suspect Karl Rove has already collected all the signatures Nader needs to get on the Ballot.. Cheesy
3938  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 12 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush + 1.8% - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 02:17:33 pm
Vorlon, who is the candidate?  do we know yet?

Nope - three people have declares so far.

We hope to top 1% this year!
3939  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 12 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush + 1.8% - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 01:17:39 pm
The Vorlon,

Who are you voting fo in this election?  Just wondering.

Libertarian.. Cheesy

The Ayn Rand stamp wasn't a big enough "hint" ...Cheesy
3940  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Newsweek Kerry +7 - UPDATED APRIL 11 - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 12, 2004, 12:02:27 pm
Ask the Vorlon for avergaes...he knows how to calculate it.
Here are the daily break outs for Rasmussen:

             1 day               3 day              7 day
             BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY        
7-Apr   48.0   47.3   43.2   46.4   44.7   46.9
8-Apr   48.3   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.5   46.1
9-Apr   41.4   43.1   45.9   44.4   43.6   46.1
10-Ap   50.4   44.6   46.7   43.5   45.0   45.9
11-Ap   46.2   44.9   46.0   44.2   45.1   44.9
3941  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / McCain on talk of run with Kerry: 'No, no and no' on: April 11, 2004, 09:59:46 pm
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/11/mccain.veep/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Trying to stamp out speculation that he might consider joining Democratic Sen. John Kerry's ticket, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona insisted Sunday that he would not do so under any circumstances.

He said he would campaign and vote for President Bush in the fall, despite their policy differences.

"No, no and no. I will not leave the Republican Party. I cherish the ideals and principles of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan," he said on NBC's "Meet The Press."

"I will not be vice president of the United States under any circumstances. I feel that I can be far more effective in helping shape policy in the future of this country as a United States senator."

McCain, who ran a hard-fought and frequently contentious campaign against Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000, is a close friend of Kerry's and like him is a decorated veteran of the Vietnam War, having endured more than five years as a prisoner.

He raised eyebrows last month in an interview with ABC when he said that if Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, asked him to be his running mate, "Obviously, I would entertain it."

McCain went on to say that he thought such a scenario was impossible because the Democratic Party would never accept his conservative views on abortion, trade and national security.

He tried to quash the speculation raised by his comments by putting out a statement the same day saying he would not run.

Nevertheless, the chatter has persisted, fueled by media reports quoting Kerry advisers saying they think a Kerry-McCain ticket would be an unbeatable combination against Bush.

But McCain said Sunday that he believes Bush "deserves re-election."

"Have we agreed on every issue? Of course not. We didn't agree on every issue when we ran against each other in a primary," he said.

"I am not embarrassed to say that John Kerry is a friend of mine, but I want George Bush to be re-elected president of the United States."

McCain, 67, is running for re-election to his Senate seat.
3942  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Newsweek Kerry +7 - UPDATED APRIL 11 - UNIFIED POLLING THREAD on: April 11, 2004, 06:39:20 pm
Newsweek's poll has got to be the biggest pile of crap out there.  They did this all thru the 2000 campaign as well.  At least Fox News keeps it's Opinion Dynamics Poll separate from its political viewpoint.  Apparently, Newsweek just can't seem to be able to do that.  Their polling is just an arm of their editorial board.  Sheesh.

Wow.. what a shock... Newsweek showing a big Kerry lead, I would never have predicted that... oh wait I did predict that...

I expected Gallup to be close to even, so if you count Besh +3 as "close" so far we're batting a 1000 .... Cheesy Cheesy
3943  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 10 UPDATE : Unified Polling Thread - All polls, all the time on: April 11, 2004, 11:21:11 am

the substantive stuff that is in the minority

Dave is right.. Sad
3944  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:APRIL 10 UPDATE : Unified Polling Thread - All polls, all the time on: April 11, 2004, 10:33:57 am


Nice graph Smiley

Devils down 2-0.. even nicer Cheesy
3945  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gallup (the real one) Bush +3 on: April 10, 2004, 07:21:01 pm
So does Gallup only survey people who answer yes to all these questions?  There are an awful lot of people who will vote in 2004 who didn't vote in 2002, and who can't name their congressman.  What do they do with all those people?  Or are they just trying to create a "definite voter" sub-category to contrast with the "likely voters"?

Gosh no...

The reason they ask for specific answers is that it cuts down on the BS factor...

If you can say... I voted for Mr X, my polling station is at 123 anystreet... you are almost certainly a likely voter,..

But Gallup weights in other questions as well.

Almost nobody would answer all the questions correctly...

Gallup assigns all votes a "score" and those above a certain threshold are deemed likely. Takes about 7 out of 13 to be "likely" in Gallup's book.

Gallup (as do others BTW) give operators the ability to make a judgement call as well.

If somebody is adament they will vote and very high in conviction, a Gallup operator would override them into the "likely" catagory

The thing about Rasmussen that worries me is there is no human in the loop.

(the Rasmussen poll is behaving oddly BTW)

Hope that helps! Cheesy

When it comes to nailing voter turnout, Gallup is as good as it gets.  They have lterally millions of interviews to draw an historic comparison from..
3946  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gallup (the real one) Bush +3 on: April 10, 2004, 06:55:41 pm
Gustaf:

There are two scenarios:

The GOP base is absolutely dialed in.  I can't see this dying down.

IF the Democratic base stayed dialed in as well, it will be a very close election. likely with a modest edge to Kerry.

If Bush gets up a fairly solid say +5 in the polls, it could very quickly turn into +10 for Bush as the Democratic base is more easily discouraged than the GOP base.  

If that happens I expect a lot of Democrats will stay home or go Nader, in which case Bush could win by 10 or so.

OK, sounds reasonable. I am not sure whether you understand my exact question, I was wondering whether the 'likely voter' stats might be skewered some by the above mentioned reasons?

Yes, I did misunderstand your question.. Cheesy

Turnout was about 54.7% in 2000.

Gallup, for example, says things are tracking to about 59% or so this year.

Gallup's methodology is "self adjusting" in the sense they make no assuptions about turnout, but yes the Gallup way of doing things will definitely catch any changes in voter turnout, as will the models of all the better firms.   Terrance group project 61%, Teeter/Hart are saying 58%, so the folks who know what they are doing have things well under control.

A lot of the "second tier" (or worse) firms simply employ some crude weights to compensate for bad fundemental poll design, a lot of these firms are going to get really embarrased this year.

Survey USA seems to be having a very poor start to the season, as is ARG.

I'll bet you a nickle that a ton of College, Newspaper, and TV Station polls are going to be looking utterly absolutely silly after the election.

3947  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush +42 in Utah on: April 10, 2004, 06:41:46 pm

Quote

Lol, if it was limited to Utah only, it'd obviously not matter much. I meant that it would be part of a national trend in Conservative states, of course...I am not a complete idiot... Wink


Nope, not at all.  But I wanted to make the point it takes a lot for the likes of Utah and Idaho to start changing an average that involves New York and California
3948  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gallup (the real one) Bush +3 on: April 10, 2004, 03:35:23 pm
Gustaf:

There are two scenarios:

The GOP base is absolutely dialed in.  I can't see this dying down.

IF the Democratic base stayed dialed in as well, it will be a very close election. likely with a modest edge to Kerry.

If Bush gets up a fairly solid say +5 in the polls, it could very quickly turn into +10 for Bush as the Democratic base is more easily discouraged than the GOP base.  

If that happens I expect a lot of Democrats will stay home or go Nader, in which case Bush could win by 10 or so.
3949  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / APRIL 15 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush "Won" Wednesday on: April 10, 2004, 02:01:50 pm
April 15th Update[/size]
Rasmussen Tracking has Bush +0.9% at 45.9% to 45.0% on their 3 day roll.

Rasmussen is showing an even race, the daily blips are just statistical noise at this point.

Bush fans might see the "win" on Wednesday as "proof" that the presidents speach on Tuesday night was a hit...

Let's wait afew more days till we jump to that conclussion...  Not saying you are wrong, just can't say your are "right" either...

The usual 1, 3, and 7 day averages (Bush/Kerry, Bush/Kerry, Bush/Kerry)

8-Apr   48.3   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.5   46.1
9-Apr   41.4   43.1   45.9   44.4   43.6   46.1
10-Apr   50.4   44.6   46.7   43.5   45.0   45.9
11-Apr   46.2   44.9   46.0   44.2   45.1   44.9
12-Apr   40.2   48.5   45.6   46.0   44.4   45.8
13-Apr   48.6   47.6   45.0   47.0

I "think" I am seeing fewer undecideds.

The results from the weekend are highly questionable, since they were taken on the Easter weekend.

Bush had a really bad sample on the 12th, the day befor his press conference.

We will have to wait till friday to see if Bush news conference had any actual effect.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

End Update[/size]
Quick Comment on Newsweek Poll

The Kerry +7/+4 is based on 874 REGISTERED VOTERS (I checked directly with Larry Hugick at PSRA International, the firm that did the poll)

Typically the "Registered" voter result is "about" 2-3% more friendly to Democrats than the "likely" voter result.  In the last Gallup the gap was actually 5%, but that was a weighting quirk, not a "real" result.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4709863/

American Research Group - Kerry + 6 (+5 with Nader)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

Gallup - Bush +3 (+4 with Nader)

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/

Rasmussen - Bush +2

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Zogby - Bush +1 with Nader, Kerry +2 without Nader

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

AP Ipsos/Reed - Bush +1 with Nader

[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040409/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&cid=694&ncid=716

FoxNews - Kerry +1 Head to head

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,116583,00.html

TIPP/IBD - Kerry +2

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=4/6

CBSNews/NYTimes - Kerry +5 (Head to Head)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

SUMMARY

Head to Head:

Gallup - Bush +3
Rasmussen Bush +2
FoxNews Kerry +1
TIPP/IBD - Kerry +2
Zogby Kerry +2

Good Firms Still to Come:

Teeter/Hart
Terrance Group
Democracy Corps/Greenburg/Quinlan
ABCNews (kinda on the edge of good, they do some kinky weighting)


3950  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: April 09, 2004, 10:36:53 pm
I suppose it depends what poll you read.  As I mentioned earlier, Rasmussen has Kerry ahead in Iowa by 10.  That would make Iowa solid for Kerry, by your logic (if you believe Rasmussen).

The states I've designated tossups have some polls with Kerry leading, some with Bush leading.  Hmmmm, which poll to choose.  At this stage of the game, I think it's more sensible just to call them tossups, they could go either way.

You're probably right about Tennessee.  For some reason Zogby and a few other other pollsters consider the state "in play".

You forgot to mention Florida/New Hampshire/New Mexico Smiley  Thanks for the feedback

Florida is actually tending Bush's way.  It's kinda like Minnesota is for Kerry.. more than a lean, but not quite a likely...

New Hampshire - Bush is up in the current round of polls, hence my map.  My gut is that Kerry takes it in the end.

New Mexico - That state is unpollable for some reason - the polls just don't work right in that state.  (Louisiania is unpollable as well) Flip a coin.  I'll give it to Kerry based on Governor Richardson.

By the way, most state polls are pretty useless, be careful what you look at.

Right now the race is very volitile, and most firms frankly are not good enough to sort it out.

At the national level there are maybe 5 firms I would trust right now..
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