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76  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 18, 2012, 09:50:23 pm
[quote author=AmericanNation link=topic=161932.msg3472271#msg3472271

apparently Romney is closing in PA like a freight train!  WI hasn't went R since 84 and PA hasn't since 88... realignment?
 
[/quote]

Bad polls from 3rd rate polling organizations seems like a better bet to me Smiley

But it is nice to dream!
77  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Obama wins reelection, do you want the US to go in another recession? on: October 18, 2012, 09:05:34 pm
"another" implies we actually ever got out of the last one.

Your question is improperly phrased... should be "do you wish the current recession to continue..."

Do you know what a recession means? Sorry if economic data doesn't fit your talking points...

technically defined,  a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP.

By this arbitrary standard, the US left the recession 3 years ago.

If you take a more realistic definition that actually reflects peoples lives, which is GDP per capita, the nation is still in recession as GDP growth has been less than population growth.

This is consistent with the $4300 per family DROP in median family income reported by BLS since Obama has become President.

78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Obama wins reelection, do you want the US to go in another recession? on: October 18, 2012, 07:58:15 pm
"another" implies we actually ever got out of the last one.

Your question is improperly phrased... should be "do you wish the current recession to continue..."
79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched? on: October 18, 2012, 04:07:00 pm
The nation is so polarized I am not sure a 50 state victory like Reagan had in 1984 is even conceptually possible anymore.

I have bounced back and forth between the is this 1980 or 2004 debate as well.

If you look at the RCP averages there has been a surprising amount of volatility in 2012, more than I would of guessed.

I am voting 2004, but I still think a 1980 Carter like face plant for Obama is still possible.

80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Reuters/Ipsos: Obama improves on every issue after 2nd debate on: October 18, 2012, 04:03:45 pm
Tracking Polls:

Oct 16th Gallup = Romney +6
Oct 17th Gallup = Romney +7 = Romney Gains 1%

Oct 16th Rasmussen = Romney +1
Oct 17th Rasmussen = Romney +2 = Romney Gains 1%

Oct 16th TIPP = Obama +2
Oct 17th TIPP = Tied = Romney Gains 2%

Clearly the Obama/Crowley ticket is getting quite a bump

But seriously, it's only 1/7th, 1/3rd and 1/5th of the sample being post debate, but no bump here yet....
81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 17, 2012, 08:10:17 pm
Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.


Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

I hope you realize that the number of democrats who think Obama is ahead in Texas is roughly the same as that of republicans who think Romney is ahead in Massachusetts.

That would be the KOSkiddies Smiley

And what do you mean Mitt is behind in Mass?
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 17, 2012, 07:23:34 pm
Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.


Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Undecideds will break for...? on: October 17, 2012, 07:14:10 pm
There is a slim sliver of the electorate that pollsters call "The Good Citizens"

These people are weakly engaged to the political process, tend to be either independents or very softly aligned with one party, and are only marginally engaged.

They typically represent 4 or 5% of the folks who actually vote on election day, because they DO vote pretty reliably (That is why pollster call them "The Good Citizens", because "Good Citizens" vote)

They do tend to break fairly heavy to one side or the other, but it varies which way they break.  Most of them make up their mind very late in the process, often the last weekend.

You hear political folks speak of "The breeze" where things shift suddenly by a couple points right at the end... The "Good Citizens" are that breeze...

in 1980 they went massively for Reagan
In 1984 they went massively for Reagan
In 1988 they went more or less for Bush #1
in 1992 they broke for Clinton
In 1996 they broke for Dole, not that it actually mattered.
In 2000 they broke for Gore
In 2004 they more or less split.
In 2008 they modestly broke for McCain.

No real pattern as to HOW they break between the parties or the incumbent versus challenger.

HINT !

If the election is VERY close right to the end (it likely will be) trust the polls that use multi question likely voter screens that measure enthusiasm AND past vote behavior over those the use simpler screens based on interest and engagement - Typically the multi-question screens will perform a bit better.
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How did Candy Crowley do as moderator? on: October 17, 2012, 06:19:05 pm
She interrupted Romney 28 times, and gave Obama 4 minutes more speaking time, and slanted all the questions to help Obama.

She fulfilled her mission perfectly.

A+
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Dick Morris: Romney won debate, onwards toward huge landslide on: October 17, 2012, 06:18:03 pm

John Zogby has a republican clone!

(ouch! - that was very mean!)
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 17, 2012, 05:56:04 pm
Ok, here is my best guess at to how an election would turn out if held today:



I am being VERY aggressive in calling states, and have no tossups, I give every state my best guess.

Virginia & Colorado are so close, if somebody had them in the Obama column I wouldn't argue too hard...

So assuming that my Romney @ 257 is correct... that means he needs 12 more EVs to win the Presidency (I am assuming a 269/269 tie would resolve in Romney's favour in the House)

So here is the question, if you were running Romney's campaign, where would you go all out?

In addition to a continued full court press in Colorado and Virginia, where are the next 12 EVS...?

Any of the following combinations would gain him victory:

Ohio with 18 EVs = Victory

Wisconsin (10 EVs) + any other state = Victory

Nevada (6)  + Iowa (6)  = Victory
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 16, 2012, 11:35:21 pm
Facts don't matter to Republicans. I am still waiting for them to find those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Poor Candy, she accidentally spoke the truth post debate

I hope she doesn't lose her job
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CNN says 67% thought Romney Won, 25% say Obama on: October 16, 2012, 10:57:07 pm
Ha ha, I even clicked the link, and there was no "67% Romney-25% Obama".  It was just the front page of CNN. 


Vorlon, are u high?

Somebody bumped the DEnver poll thread... I am not high, but if you can help me out a little I would appreciate it Smiley
89  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CNN/ORC 2nd Debate POLL: Obama 46 Romney 39 on: October 16, 2012, 10:51:10 pm
An Interesting focus group from Fox?

Was this really put to air, or was it some kind of internet hoax?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/16/luntz_focus_group_of_mostly_former_obama_voters_switch_to_romney.html

I think my debate calibration meter is broke,

I thought Romney had a narrow win in debate 1, and Obama a solid but not crushing win in #2, guess the polls saw it different...
90  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CBS 2nd Debate - Obama 37 Romney 30 Tie 33 on: October 16, 2012, 10:35:39 pm
46/39 Obama says CNN
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:34:22 pm
47/39 for Obama says CNN
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:04:03 pm
CBS POLL UNDECIDED VOTERS
OBAMA: 37%
ROMNEY: 30%
TIE: 33%

I would have thought Obama had a bit bigger advantage.... But a narrow Obama win was roughly the way I saw it....

Somebody guessed 50-35 which was more or less how I saw it.....
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:00:02 pm
Obama, easily, though certainly not by as much as Romney won the first debate.

Flash polls will probably be something like 50-35.

^^^^^^

Pretty close I think Smiley
94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pew poll shows Biden lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 07:29:36 pm

I see this as a tactical victory, but a strategic defeat for Biden.  After the debate, what are we all talking about:

A.  Libya.  His answer made the White House look out of touch and somewhat incompetent.  The thing is that Obama is reasonably good with foreign policy, but Biden's answer didn't indicate that.

B.  His body language may have energized the base, but it turned off a lot of people, especially women.  He came off as boorish and buffoonish, which is fine in some circumstances, but not that one.

I actually more or less agree with you.

Obama/Biden needed a tactical victory, something to rally the troops, let them believe it wasn't over, that there was still some fight left.  Biden did this.

Unfortunately, he looked like an ass doing so..

A tactical victory in that it fired up the Dem base.

A modest strategic loss in that it made Obama/Biden look buffonish to independents and women...
95  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Kimball Political Consulting: Romney +11 on: October 16, 2012, 04:54:34 pm
This is....

A Poll.....


With a set of numbers....
96  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4 on: October 16, 2012, 03:28:12 pm
OK... this one REALLY has me confused....

Amo ng those who have already voted...

Obama 60
Romney 31
Undecided 9

How the %^%$! can somebody who has already voted be "undecided"  WTF?Huh?
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pew poll shows Biden lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 12:13:21 am
In baseball they have a statistic for pitchers called a "hold" which seems to be the best description for what Biden did.

A "hold" is something like the following scenario....

Your starting pitcher gets rocked, gives up 6 runs in the first two innings and gets pulled, and in comes the long reliever with the team down 6-2...

The reliever puts in a decent but not spectacular performance and going into the 7th inning the score is now 8-5...  made up a bit of ground, they team has had a chance to recover, and the game is still up for grabs....

KInda like Biden, he didn't win the game, but he kept it from being lost....
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Predict the effect of the Tuesday, Oct 16th Debate! on: October 15, 2012, 10:18:17 pm
OK...

Predict the future!

The RCP average of national polls is basically tied right now, so who gets a bump from debate #2?

Ready, set, pontificate!
99  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 08:17:38 pm

Exit polls are polls, and as such they're not much more "actual" than the Pew numbers. Pew is already polling thousands of people, so their MoE is about as low as you can get. And exit polls and the Pew surveys ask partisan ID questions in slightly different ways, and at different points in the surveys, yadda yadda, so I wouldn't lose a whole lot of sleep over the finer details.


Actually, PEW and Exit polls are different..

The exit polls are reweighted after the fact to exactly match the results of a real election.

They are not perfect, but after they have been reweighed, they are awfully darn close.

But returning to PEW...

PEW said a D +11 in 2008, and now PEW says D +8, ie a 3% R improvement

The trend line identified by Pew is the gap has narrowed by about 3% since 2008, so this would suggest 2012 exit polls of Dem +45or so? based on a 3% change from 2008, as per the PEW trendline?
100  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 07:35:48 pm
Sad that they had to jack the sample from D+3 to D+9 in order to still eek out an Obama lead.  Romney +3

Not this sh!t again!

the basic question is do you believe that Democrats are going to turn out 9 pts higher than Republicans in exit polls this time around?


Lots of former Republicans are now identifying as conservatives.

A helpful graph to this effect:

http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/01/trend-in-party-identification-1939-2012/

So what you are saying is that since PEW showed partisan ID advantages of 3% and 11% in 2004 and 2008 respectively for the Dems, while the actualy exit poll results were 0% and 7%, that PEW pulls 3 or 4% to the Dem side?

So based upon this, PEW current 8% advantage is actually 4 or 5% then?
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