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76  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate makes big move towards Romney on: October 13, 2012, 04:02:24 pm
Looks like Biden was a big boost for the Romney ticket.
Survey USA results:
 Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38

       Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama!

In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30

But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney…

CA Biden wins debate  48% to 41%
but vote switchers favor Romney  59% to 40%

This may be a situation where the debate does two semi-contradictory things at the same time.

I "suspect" Obama may be a brief micro-bump in the polls because Democrats will have LOVED what Biden did, and hence will be more enthusiastic, and a few more Dems will thus be deemed "likely" in the voter screening models.

On the other hand, Independents likely views him as a rude idiot buffoon, which at the margins may help Romney with that group.

Mind you, very, very few voters actually vote on the VP choice, so the net positive may be pretty small.

To Bidens credit, for at least a bit the story line has changed from how Romney thrashed Obama to how Biden is a crude buffoon, so while both are negative story lines for the Dems, one is abut the VP (thus doesn't really matter) the other about the President (relevant to their vote), so in that sense it's a better story for the Dems, in that the negative story is about something irrelevant rather than an issue the impacts the actual voting decision.

Besides, how much MORE of an idiot can Biden be considered by most folks?
77  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 11, 2012, 10:26:04 pm
CNN 48% Ryan 44% Biden. Biden did well on substance and enthusiasm but tried too hard.

Roughly how I saw things.....

The REAL debate now is how this get spun in the media...  Tomorrow night I wonder if the story is Biden the Buffoon, or Biden the aggressor.....?

At minimum, I think Biden did his job to stop the bleeding, the Dem base will like what he did... even if his buffoonery hurts with independents at the margin, the increased enthusiasm in the base may make up for it...

Not surprising the CBS poll has Biden winning by a rather large margin of 50 to 31....

78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 11, 2012, 09:34:59 pm
My "gut" reaction is this could be a Gore/Bush 1st debate scenario..

I think Biden won on the merits, he had his attack lines honed more effectively.  He was also an interrupting arrogant snarly prick who kept butting in.....

I wonder how "ordinary folks" will view this?

I am sure the media will declare Biden the winner, I also wonder what the polls will say...

Historical tidbit...

Dan Quayle absolutely hammered Gore in the 1992 VP debate.. helped lots didn't it?
79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Gun to your head - who will win Florida? on: October 11, 2012, 02:43:36 pm
Mitt by a bit
80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who will win Ohio? on: October 11, 2012, 02:39:49 pm
The serial flip flopping tax evader
81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Silver Projects Largest 1-Day Swing of the Year on: October 09, 2012, 04:35:58 pm
When I look at "Pollster.com" run by the Huffington Post (hardly part of the vast right wing conspiracy) - The ten most recent polls posted show: (As of 3.40 pm MST, October 9th)

Romney +4
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +1
Romney +1
Obama +1

6 show a Romney lead, 3 ties, and 1 Obama lead...

Pretty much exactly the statistical spread you would expect if the real spread was Romney up a point or so...  Well within MOE, but it is somewhat more likely the Romney is ahead than Obama is ahead...

GeeZ, even Daily Kos/PPP has Romney up 2%

If the election was today, Romney would likely squeak out a tight victory.

The election is not today.

Good news if you're for Romney, Bad for Obama, but a long, long way to go....

82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post 1st Debate: Who will win the Election? on: October 04, 2012, 06:47:58 pm
Tomorrows job number will be VERY important.

If it is a "good" number for Obama (saw 150K or better) Romney likely loses a good bit of the bump he get from last nights trashing of the teleprompterless unwonderkinder.......

If it is a "bad" number, say under 100K, Romney gets a quick and powerful reinforcement of his message, and he might get a pretty decent bump.

Obama is running a better campaign.

He has more money, and is doing a better job coordinating his message with friendly organizations (CBC, ABC, NBC, NYTimes, PBS, etc) than Romney is with his friendlies (Crossroads GPS, Talk Radio, etc)

The GOP has always subcontracted it's "grassroots" out to conservative organizations, and they are still not quite there for Romney.

Obama is still ahead, it's closer than it was.

83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 58M watched debate 1 on: October 04, 2012, 06:41:45 pm
Or 67 million....


plus online viewers...

These debates are never about what actually happened, it's about who "won" or "lost" and the media spin that results becomes the "reality"
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Jim Lehrer's Job Performance on: October 04, 2012, 06:11:47 pm
He threw out a general topic and let them go at it for 15 minutes back and forth.

Other than letting Obama speak waaaay more (almost 5 minutes) than Romney, he didn't do anything that was biased or unfair.

When a PBS "journalist" gives a GOP candidate almost as much time as the Democrat and doesn't editorialize the heck out of what the GOP candidate said, that is about as close as we can ever expect to get to a fair and impartial media.

He tried to help Obama a few times with semi-editorialized questions ( "so you deficit approach is more balances then...?") but on balance dramatically less biased that typical media.

Stripped of his media shield and teleprompter Obama got obliterated, and the media rage at Lehrer is not because he was biased, it's because he wasn't biased,

Lehrer didn't do his job as a "journalist" and defend Obama while trying to eviscerate the GOP candidate..... which is why the talking heads are so up in arms....

I am sure Dan Rather is utterly ashamed of Lehrer tonight.

85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / CNN says 67% thought Romney Won, 25% say Obama on: October 03, 2012, 10:54:06 pm
CNN/ORC poll: 67% of those responding said Mitt Romney won the first presidential debate; 25% said President Obama won.


Standard caveats on "snap polls" apply! Smiley
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / CBS News poll says Romney won 46 to 22 percent (32 voted "draw") on: October 03, 2012, 10:52:13 pm
CBS News instant poll: Romney wins first presidential debate

CBS News and GFK's knowledge panel recruited 523 uncommitted voters to determine the winner of the first presidential debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. Forty six percent thought Governor Romney won the debate and 22 percent thought Mr. Obama did.


All the usual caveats on "snap polls" apply Smiley
87  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-Ipsos: Reports of Obama's demise have been greatly exaggerated on: August 31, 2012, 09:12:35 pm
This is a poll of adults, so Illinois is still very much in play.

Just like Texas Smiley
88  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC News: Romney pulls slightly ahead in pre-convention poll on: August 31, 2012, 09:11:16 pm
The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

Something I noticed is that the number of independents is high and the amount of democrats and republicans is lower than in other polls. Just who are these independents? Something to keep in mind.

The partisan ID question is always an interesting one.

If you just ask the question straight out, a lot of independents who actually lean one way or the other will say their are independent, but if you push then a good chunk will express a party preference.

A baseline I think is useful this year is to use the 2008 and 2004 exit polls.

In 2004 the partisan ID of folks who actually voted was almost exactly even between Republicans and Dems - depending on which data set you use it was either even or GOP +1.

In 2008 it was Dems +7.

I think GOP +1 to Dems +7 pretty much defines the other limits of where polling should be in 2012.

I doubt ANYBODY sane will suggest Obama is in better shape now than in 2008, and I doubt we will see a GOP +1 either....
89  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: August 31, 2012, 09:02:30 pm
This poll actually has Mr. Romney up 44 / 42 among likely voters.

It's an internet based poll, so judge it as you will.

90  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: August 31, 2012, 08:59:26 pm
How long until we expect to see any convention bump? Was there any?

Probably not until mid week.  It's a holiday weekend, so I don't know if the 'bots will be calling.

Long weekend polling is always a bit of a "funky" matter, Even if the 'Bots are going full bore, not quite sure I trust what they generate anyway....

91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Official Republican National Convention 2012 Discussion Thread on: August 28, 2012, 10:10:25 pm
Governor Christie just delivered one of the greatest speeches in the history of U.S. political conventions.

The Republican Party is fired up.

Any American who wants to turn this economy around is going to find it much much easier to vote for Mitt Romney now.  

A good speech, not quite sure I would be that hyperbolic.

A very solid B+/A- IMHO.

Less anger than I expected (good)
Less "fire" than I expected (bad)

A rallying cry to the economic conservative wing rump of the party... they needed that.
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Current polling, Obama vs. Romney on: June 27, 2012, 09:05:28 pm
Silly Kids...

Looking at summer polls...

Presidential polling just doesn't work very well in the summer....

Wait till labor day.. Smiley
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What happens if Romney wins Michigan? on: June 22, 2012, 01:46:39 pm
If Romney wins Michigan, he doesn't actually need Michigan Smiley

Campaigns often spend money on states they don't "need" primarily to force the other guy to spend money there too....

In 2004 Bush spent a pile of cash on Pennsylvania not to actually win it but to force Kerry to spend there too...

Any money and time Kerry invested in Pennsylvania, he didn't spend in Ohio.....

Some of what Mitt is doing is trying to stoke up some enthusiasm as well.  A poll showing Mitt up a few points in Michigan is a great fund raiser, and creates a sense of being a winner.

Good strategy to depress Democrat turnout as well, if they get a sense they are fighting for their lives in Michigan, it's can't make the overall democratic universe feel good about things...

94  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Bloomberg/Selzer: Obama leads by double-digits nationally (among likely voters) on: June 20, 2012, 11:21:07 pm
Summer polls, in general, are basically junk.

The problem is that the bulk of the electorate is so weakly engaged that the "likely voter" screening questions simply work very, very poorly.

Rasmussen (despite a myriad of other flaws that have crept in over time) right now actually has the "likely voter" screen down pretty good.  Rasmussen's likely vote screen is pretty mild and should probably be renamed "The pool of potential voters"

There is about 30% of the population that, essentially, never vote, and about 40% who just about always vote.

Of the 30% left in the middle, right now it's darn near impossible this far out to pick and choose  who will actually show up on election day, and any attempt to do a likely voter screen on these folks is essentially asking "Who had a good week?" on the campaign trail as opposed to any meaningful sort for election day. (See 15% post convention "bounces" that evaporate in two weeks)

This is also why (as some of you may remember) the Gallup Tracking Poll in the summer used to swing 15 points is 3 or 4 days because they tried to use a eve of the election likely voter screen on a more or less tuned out summertime electorate.

An approach that works fairly well right now (and the one most of the campaign pollsters use) is an "unaided ballot" on the universe of registered voters.

Rather than giving folks a choice, they essentially just say "who are you going to vote for?" - if somebody in this situation says unprompted  "Obama" or "Romney" it likely means something, and restricting the pool to RVs sifts out a bunch of the folks who never vote. - Still far from perfect, but better than the other choices.
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: June 20, 2012, 11:02:41 pm

This is a recession caused by plummeting house prices which affected nearly every home owners wealth. This meant they started deleveraging by not taking on other loans and increasing their savings rate. This is not the same as other recessions. When people need to reduce their debt load, the recovery is meek like we have seen. Any economist will tell you a recovery after a housing crash is going to be slow.

This recession is fundamentally different from the 70s and 80s ones, because those were the results of  the cyclical business cycle. This was the result of a financial crisis, and financial crises almost always result in low growth recoveries.

In some respects you are both talking about different manifestations of the same root cause - Government policy distorting the "true" value of a major element of the economy by way of assorted silly policies.

In the late 70s the substantial growth of the government, first with LBJ and the War + the "great society" then Nixon with the decoupling of the Dollar from Gold (I don't support tying the currency to Gold, but I do support anchoring it to "something" other than government whim and folly) then Carter with his insane energy policies (among other economic madneses) diluted and debased the currency while artificially driving many prices (primarily energy) upward. - After a while 10% inflation got "baked into the cake" and tainted any and all long term economic planning. - In some respects the 1980 era recession was "planned" in the sense the Volker and company judged that 20% interest rates were they only way to wring inflation out of the system.

The 2008 housing bubble also had at it's root silly government policy.  The demand for housing was artificially massively inflated by, essentially, mandating that Fanny and Ginny guarantee loans to people who in any remotely sane universe simply has no business buying a home.  

This broke the "iron law" of economics that requires that the entity making the profit from a loan also needs to take the hit if the loan goes bad. (This is the same reason why life insurance salesmen don't get to do their own underwriting) When banks and other institutions could make all the profit from a loan (the points, the fees, etc) and then shift the risk to the taxpayer....  well.... what ultimately happened was damn near inevitable.....  It would have been utterly astonishing if the market DIDN'T collapse.

My beef with Obama folks on housing is that they have slow walked the pain.

A house that sold for $400K that is now worth $200K means somewhere there is going to need to be $200K worth of pain.... the market and every sane economist and investor knows this, and until this pain is inflicted upon somebody, nobody will invest.  The "pain" is like winter snow in the mountains - it's gonna melt, the question is just when....

If you factor in inflation, interest rates are now negative.. what does that say?

The smart folks (the ones with trillions of dollars) have concluded that a negative rate of return is the best possible choice for their money right now.  Until that changes the chances of new factories, plants, businesses being created in adequate numbers is pretty much zero.

96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: June 19, 2012, 12:49:21 pm
The rise of the internet helping the GOP? Dems usually enjoying a money advantage? Uh....

Actually, I said "internet and alternative media ".. which I do think is valid.

30 years ago there was the big networks and the newspapers which utterly dominated the flow of information... today there are a zillion sources...

The rise of "Talk Radio", as a classic example is clearly pretty darn helpful to the GOP.

The internet is, due to it's utter lack of centralization and control, a place where the GOP can compete.

For example, in 2004 when CBS and Dan Rather fabricated a story about Bush and his ANG days, the GOP and conservatives had a method and a medium to fight back with... if the same thing had happened in 1964 the fabrication likely would have represented a successful attack.

With respect to the traditional Dem spending advantage, this is well documented.

If you take the true value of the literally tens of thousands of paid political operatives who are paid by the likes of the Teacher's Union, UAW, AFL-CIO and then "volunteer" for various democratic candidates (thus not counting as a campaign expenditure) the Dems have held a rather large advantage in actual campaign resources for many years.

The unlimited spending allowed by "Citizens United" is, if one steps back and looks at it objectively, a counterweight to the unlimited Union expenditures that have gone on for decades.

Some sort of sanity would be nice on the campaign spending side, but at least having, essentially, no rules is fair in the sense that there are, well, no rules.
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: June 18, 2012, 09:35:47 pm

So assuming that these polls are beginning to have more of a predictive value, where would we say we are at this point?

The "horse race" polls still have very weak predictive power, they are worth a glace in the sense that if Romney were to open up a consistent and stable lead it might mean something, but there is such a long way to go....

If you track losing Presidents, Carter had a big lead on Reagan at this point, and Bush #1 was still up on Bubba at this point in the race.

Job approval still is a far better predictor of outcome at this point, and the current results are pretty inconclusive.

If Obama's broad aggregate approval over an averaged range of polls is above 50% he is just about certain to win.  If the GOP had a super duper amazing candidate, you could maybe knock out Obama if he was 50%+, but this is not the case.

On the other hand, if Obama is below 45% by the same measure, he is pretty much doomed.

Bush II was polling very similarly to Obama in the summer of 2004.  Given that GOPers tend to gain a couple % when we shift to a likely voter model, and Dens tend to drop a point or two, I would say Obama is pretty much right on the bubble right now.

An interesting point will be how the shift in financial resources will impact the race.  In 2008 Obama had roughly a 2 to 1 financial advantage over McCain, and this allowed Obama to expand the playing field to places like North Carolina, Virginia, etc and McCain simply did not have the resources to fight back.

In 2012 it seems like outside GOP aligned groups (Crossroads GPS, Restore Our Future, etc) may come fairly close to bridging the spending gap that the Dems traditionally enjoy from Labor unions, Hollywood, etc.

GOP friendly groups might pour a lot of money into places like Pennsylvania and Michigan not so much to actually win those states, but to pull time and money from the Obama campaign away from places like Ohio and perhaps Virginia that are likely the pivotal states.

The continued decline of Dem friendly mainstream media and the rise of internet and alternative media also represents a shift that favors the GOP.

Right now, this looks like an amazingly close race to me.

98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Scott Walker recall goes live on: June 05, 2012, 10:45:13 pm
Tomorrow's News Headlines:

CBS News: - Walker Helped in Wisconsin by Obama policies that reduced unemployment
NBC News: - Little change in Wisconsin bodes well for Obama Re-election
ABC News: - Exit polls show big Obama lead in Badger State.
NY Times: - Last transit this century of Venus across sun makes for spectacular viewing
FoxNews: - Badger State B*tchslaps Obama and Unions
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Scott Walker recall goes live on: June 05, 2012, 10:22:26 pm
The GOP seems to be ready to hold all 4 state senate seats as well

State Senate - District 13 - Special General
66 of 97 Precincts Reporting - 68%

   Fitzgerald, Scott (i)   GOP   32,254   60%
        Compas, Lori   Dem   21,324   39%
        Virgil, Terry   Lib   486   1%

State Senate - District 21 - Special General
13 of 60 Precincts Reporting - 22%
Wanggaard, Van (i)   GOP   11,301   62%
Lehman, John   Dem   7,033   38%

State Senate - District 23 - Special General
113 of 168 Precincts Reporting - 67%
   Moulton, Terry (i)   GOP   22,491   60%
Dexter, Kristen   Dem   14,765   40%

State Senate - District 29 - Special General
119 of 172 Precincts Reporting - 69%

   Petrowski, Jerry   GOP   26,573   64%
Seidel, Donna   Dem   15,041   
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta 2012 on: April 15, 2012, 02:06:42 pm
Not often you see a party die in Alberta.

Alberta had always has two possible governing parties.  The red Tories and the blue Tories.

For 41 years they agreed to run a joint candidate in the provincial election, this is the year the marriage fell apart.

Wild rose will get 50 something seats, the PCs the bulk of the rest.

Liberals could be wiped out, NDP will take a handful.

Objectively speaking smith and Redford were pretty close in the debate, but folks just like smith more as a person.

Barring a meltdown, this thing is over.

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