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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: December 17, 2013, 07:15:31 pm
Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

The "who did you vote for in the last election" question absolutely sucks in a poll.

According to all polling done in the later part of 1974, for example, McGovern actually "won" in 1972 if you asked folks who they voted for...
77  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve Stockman's sadistic hellhole of a campaign HQ gets shut down by city on: November 20, 2013, 02:49:44 pm
Of the 435 seats in the House, maybe, and this might even be a stretch, there are 75 that could be considered "competitive".

The GOP has about 200 seats that are pretty much invulnerable, the dems have about 170 or so.

This is why we have the vast bulk of the House, on both sides, is pandering to the whacky bird crazy factions of their own party and so few running in the political centre.
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: November 20, 2013, 02:29:16 pm

But this is the same CBS that produced that discredited Benghazi report a few weeks back, so who's surprised?


Remember when CBS had a news division?
79  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: November 20, 2013, 02:24:39 pm
One poll is, well... one poll....

I still like the "old school" rule on polls... toss out the high and the low and average the rest.....

CBS News                       37   57    -20
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Rasmussen Reports               43   56    -13
The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17



The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17
Average                               39.9     55.0  -15.1

Average what is left an Job approval is about 40 / 55 or so
80  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: November 20, 2013, 11:37:22 am
According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

They weighed that sample back to

23.7% GOP,
29.3 Democrat
48.0% Independant.

+5.6 to the Dem side is "reasonable" IMHO, especially with so many independants, The variousl polling firms handle party ID so very differently that poll to poll comparisons tend not to have a lot of actual value.

The party ID question has never worked really well, and it works even less well right now with both parties being held in contempt by the electorate.
81  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: HHS in 2010: 40-67% of those with individual insurance won't be able to keep it on: November 20, 2013, 11:31:24 am
ObamaCare forcing insurance companies to drop certain types of plans is, to paraphrase Bill Gates "A feature, not a bug" in the design.

ObamaCare allows into the risk pool a large number of very expensive to insure people - folks with pre-existing conditions, the very sick, etc...  For some to pay less, others have to pay more... this is just the fiscal reality of the thing.

The proposed "fix" to ObamaCare simply speeds up the "negative selection" death spiral that is the heart of ObamaCare.

The goal of ObamaCare is to obliterate private health insurance so by default "single payer" is all that is left standing -  and forcing folks out of low cost plans they actually wish to buy of their own free will into higher cost plans that have the effect of providing a defacto subsidy to other higher risk/higher cost enrollees in just simply a fiscally unavoidable consequence of extending coverage.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who was the most bipartisan U.S. President? on: November 20, 2013, 11:22:18 am
In the modern era, I think Ike gets the nod.

Mind you , back in the 50s the gap between the two parties was fairly small by todays standards.   There was also diversity within each party - a north eastern republican was likely more liberal than a southern democrat, just as an example...  It seems like ancient history now but the GOP as a party was actually more in favour of civail rights than the democrats.  In 1964 a higher % of the GOP in Congress voted from the civil rights act than did the Democrats.

Clinton accepted reality after HilaryCare got him slaughtered in 1994, and that was actually a period of approximately bipartisan and reality based governance.

Ford was "bipartisan" for the same reason, he was so crippled politically by Nixon he had little choice.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: November 20, 2013, 11:08:09 am

Wow - minus 20 in a CBS poll.... Rather interesting..

The word Schadenfreude keeps coming to mind....

That being said, at some point in the 2nd term a President can decouple from the party as a whole on polling (as Bush II did)

During the first term, job approval is a darn good proxy for "Are you gonna vote for the guy again?" - in the second term, this obvioulsy does not apply.

Issues like being honest and trustworthy have taken a  hit, but not yet to critical levels.

"assuming" no other major shoes drop, I think this is a standing 8 count, but not a knockout moment.
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: October Jobs Report to be released Friday on: October 31, 2012, 06:07:37 pm
I think 7.7 or better and Obama gets a boost and a narrative for the last weekend.

8.0 or worse and Romney has the marrative.

7.8 or 7.9 has no impact.

My Prediction?

8.0 and 110K jobs.
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Random Noise and why the polls might be wrong. on: October 30, 2012, 11:57:52 pm
On an unrelated note, your sig is utterly stupid and fallacious in a way that even a 8-year-old kid could perceive.

Gee, thanks for elevating the debate, I appreciate it Smiley
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Random Noise and why the polls might be wrong. on: October 30, 2012, 11:55:42 pm
I have a hard time thinking the chart you posted is completely random. With so many iterations it's pretty weird that the red guy seems to be ahead 80% of the time.

And if I do it again, maybe the blue guys wins...

It's all +/- 2% Smiley
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Random Noise and why the polls might be wrong. on: October 30, 2012, 11:43:12 pm
The following is a graph that simulates a 3 day tracking poll of 500 "calls" per day.

The "true" result is an exact 50/50 spit between the two candidates, with a 7 day moving average tossed in to simulate a 7 day tracking poll.

All of these fairly wild variations are pure random noise.



The reason I post this is simply to demonstrate how massively weighted and massaged all polls are these days. - True "probability sampling" in the classic sense is utterly dead, and every pollster builds a huge number of weights and assumptions into their sampling.

These assumptions can and often are wrong.

There are, more or less, three basic ways pollsters weight and sample these days, and looking over the vast array of polls out there, when you break the pollsters into these three groups, these three groups are producing subtly different results.

Group 1 - The "quota callers"

The US census breaks the nation up into 48 census "cells" based upon race, income, age, geography, etc...  Quota callers (ABC news is likely the best executed of this category) essentially keep calling till they have enough completed interviews within each cell.. they then add the results up - essentially they are pre-weighting the sample via their calling strategy....


Group 2 - Post call weighting

In this strategy, the pollster calls who they call with their best attempt at a probability sample, and then the weight to census targets AFTER the data is collected. - Galup is the best known example of this.

Group 3 - Hard Party ID weighting

TIPP and Zogby are the biggest examples of this.

If you group the pollsters by these three types of sampling/weighting strategies, you actually get three different predicted outcomes for election 2012.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Romney versus Hillary in 2016 - Post your early map predictions on: October 30, 2012, 11:04:13 pm
Might be a barn burner election!
89  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Call it now - CO on: October 30, 2012, 06:02:43 pm
Obama... but I expect this to be the closest state

Romney, and NH will be closer.

Smiley
90  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA on: October 30, 2012, 05:04:40 pm
Zogby's "fun and games" in 2004 with the fake polls based upon leaked exit poll results was such a black mark that he simply cannot ever been forgiven.

I don't care if it was 8 years ago or 108 years ago.  the man has no honour.
91  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA on: October 30, 2012, 11:37:07 am
I'm worried that there isn't enough time left in the campaign for Zogby to show insane results.

Don't worry! - Planet Z is not subject to the same laws of physics as other parts of the known Universe.

Plenty of time for crazy and insane results.
92  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA on: October 30, 2012, 11:26:48 am
Zogby + Internet polling + Newsmax, all bundled together.

What more really needs to be said?

 


93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Gallup poll may go "a galluping" to strange places... on: October 29, 2012, 10:15:57 am
Gallup, never known as the most stable poll to begin with, is likely to go fairly nuts over the next six days...

The three day samples from Oct 19 to 22 showed a net INCREASE in Obama approval from +4 to +11, but the next three days show a DECREASE from +11 to -3...

"assuming" Job approval and ballot preference correlate at least a little bit, could be a bumpy ride down and then up as these 6 days roll off the 7 day tracking poll...

Yikes!

This should be exciting Smiley

94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Gloria Allred just as pathetic as Donald Trump? on: October 25, 2012, 10:01:51 am
it's close, but I would narrowly vote for Allred.

Trump actually is a decent business person, so on that mitigating condition is marginally less tragically pathetic.
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 22, 2012, 11:28:59 pm
there is "winning the debate" and then there is changing voters minds...

PPP (D) says my the metric of changing votes, Romney won HUGE among independants.

More/Less Likely to Vote Obama?

Independants - More = 32%, Less = 48% => net negative of 16%

More/Less Likely to Vote Romney?

Independants - More = 47%, less = 35% => Net Positive of12%

28 Point differnetial for Romney

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/1022PostDebatePoll.pdf
96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney crushes Obama among Independants in 3rd debate, says PPP (D) on: October 22, 2012, 11:26:59 pm
More/Less Likely to Vote Obama?

Independants - More = 32%, Less = 48% => net Negative of 16%

More/Less Likely to Vote Romney?

Independants - More = 47%, less = 35% => Net Positive of12%

28 Point differnetial for Romney

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/1022PostDebatePoll.pdf
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Why are people so confident of a Romney win? on: October 22, 2012, 07:30:29 pm
Folks backing Romney are optimistic for the following reasons:

1)   Obama has very rarely broken 50% in any national poll.  I thik there was a National Public Radio Poll and maybe a Zogby or two, but under 50% is the traditional "vulnerable incumbent" dividing line.

2)   Obama was clearly ahead, it is now very very close to even.  It's a bit of a dogs breakfast on both sides but I think I trust the polls showing a modest Romney lead just a tiny bit more than those showing a modest Obama lead.

3)  A presidential reelection bid is, first and foremost, a referendum on the incumbent.  Obama did not win this question (see Reagan 1984, Clinton 1996)  if he hasn't convinced 50% of the people to vote for him in 4 years, why will he suddenly do it in the last 14 days?

~~~~~~~~

FWIW....

I think Obama is very narrowly ahead, it will be a hell of a long night on Election day!
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What happens if Romney wins the Electoral College & Obama wins the Popular Vote? on: October 19, 2012, 03:49:55 am
What happens if Romney wins the Electoral College & Obama wins the Popular Vote?

Romney would be President and Al Gore would have a new drinking buddy?
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 18, 2012, 09:50:23 pm
[quote author=AmericanNation link=topic=161932.msg3472271#msg3472271

apparently Romney is closing in PA like a freight train!  WI hasn't went R since 84 and PA hasn't since 88... realignment?
 
[/quote]

Bad polls from 3rd rate polling organizations seems like a better bet to me Smiley

But it is nice to dream!
100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Obama wins reelection, do you want the US to go in another recession? on: October 18, 2012, 09:05:34 pm
"another" implies we actually ever got out of the last one.

Your question is improperly phrased... should be "do you wish the current recession to continue..."

Do you know what a recession means? Sorry if economic data doesn't fit your talking points...

technically defined,  a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP.

By this arbitrary standard, the US left the recession 3 years ago.

If you take a more realistic definition that actually reflects peoples lives, which is GDP per capita, the nation is still in recession as GDP growth has been less than population growth.

This is consistent with the $4300 per family DROP in median family income reported by BLS since Obama has become President.

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