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76  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 17, 2012, 07:23:34 pm
Why "Romney supporters only" exactly? I guess you're the only ones who can think objectively... Roll Eyes So much that my prediction map is actually the same as yours.

Was trying to avoid "your map is %^%$!, Obama is ahead in Texas!"  responses from the hard core KOSkiddies

Comments from (sane) Democrats, Libertarians, and independents are always welcome. Smiley

77  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Undecideds will break for...? on: October 17, 2012, 07:14:10 pm
There is a slim sliver of the electorate that pollsters call "The Good Citizens"

These people are weakly engaged to the political process, tend to be either independents or very softly aligned with one party, and are only marginally engaged.

They typically represent 4 or 5% of the folks who actually vote on election day, because they DO vote pretty reliably (That is why pollster call them "The Good Citizens", because "Good Citizens" vote)

They do tend to break fairly heavy to one side or the other, but it varies which way they break.  Most of them make up their mind very late in the process, often the last weekend.

You hear political folks speak of "The breeze" where things shift suddenly by a couple points right at the end... The "Good Citizens" are that breeze...

in 1980 they went massively for Reagan
In 1984 they went massively for Reagan
In 1988 they went more or less for Bush #1
in 1992 they broke for Clinton
In 1996 they broke for Dole, not that it actually mattered.
In 2000 they broke for Gore
In 2004 they more or less split.
In 2008 they modestly broke for McCain.

No real pattern as to HOW they break between the parties or the incumbent versus challenger.


If the election is VERY close right to the end (it likely will be) trust the polls that use multi question likely voter screens that measure enthusiasm AND past vote behavior over those the use simpler screens based on interest and engagement - Typically the multi-question screens will perform a bit better.
78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How did Candy Crowley do as moderator? on: October 17, 2012, 06:19:05 pm
She interrupted Romney 28 times, and gave Obama 4 minutes more speaking time, and slanted all the questions to help Obama.

She fulfilled her mission perfectly.

79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Dick Morris: Romney won debate, onwards toward huge landslide on: October 17, 2012, 06:18:03 pm

John Zogby has a republican clone!

(ouch! - that was very mean!)
80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney Pathways to Victory - Best strategy? (Romney supporters only please!) on: October 17, 2012, 05:56:04 pm
Ok, here is my best guess at to how an election would turn out if held today:

I am being VERY aggressive in calling states, and have no tossups, I give every state my best guess.

Virginia & Colorado are so close, if somebody had them in the Obama column I wouldn't argue too hard...

So assuming that my Romney @ 257 is correct... that means he needs 12 more EVs to win the Presidency (I am assuming a 269/269 tie would resolve in Romney's favour in the House)

So here is the question, if you were running Romney's campaign, where would you go all out?

In addition to a continued full court press in Colorado and Virginia, where are the next 12 EVS...?

Any of the following combinations would gain him victory:

Ohio with 18 EVs = Victory

Wisconsin (10 EVs) + any other state = Victory

Nevada (6)  + Iowa (6)  = Victory
81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 16, 2012, 11:35:21 pm
Facts don't matter to Republicans. I am still waiting for them to find those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Poor Candy, she accidentally spoke the truth post debate

I hope she doesn't lose her job
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CNN says 67% thought Romney Won, 25% say Obama on: October 16, 2012, 10:57:07 pm
Ha ha, I even clicked the link, and there was no "67% Romney-25% Obama".  It was just the front page of CNN. 

Vorlon, are u high?

Somebody bumped the DEnver poll thread... I am not high, but if you can help me out a little I would appreciate it Smiley
83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CNN/ORC 2nd Debate POLL: Obama 46 Romney 39 on: October 16, 2012, 10:51:10 pm
An Interesting focus group from Fox?

Was this really put to air, or was it some kind of internet hoax?


I think my debate calibration meter is broke,

I thought Romney had a narrow win in debate 1, and Obama a solid but not crushing win in #2, guess the polls saw it different...
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CBS 2nd Debate - Obama 37 Romney 30 Tie 33 on: October 16, 2012, 10:35:39 pm
46/39 Obama says CNN
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:34:22 pm
47/39 for Obama says CNN
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:04:03 pm
OBAMA: 37%
TIE: 33%

I would have thought Obama had a bit bigger advantage.... But a narrow Obama win was roughly the way I saw it....

Somebody guessed 50-35 which was more or less how I saw it.....
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:00:02 pm
Obama, easily, though certainly not by as much as Romney won the first debate.

Flash polls will probably be something like 50-35.


Pretty close I think Smiley
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pew poll shows Biden lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 07:29:36 pm

I see this as a tactical victory, but a strategic defeat for Biden.  After the debate, what are we all talking about:

A.  Libya.  His answer made the White House look out of touch and somewhat incompetent.  The thing is that Obama is reasonably good with foreign policy, but Biden's answer didn't indicate that.

B.  His body language may have energized the base, but it turned off a lot of people, especially women.  He came off as boorish and buffoonish, which is fine in some circumstances, but not that one.

I actually more or less agree with you.

Obama/Biden needed a tactical victory, something to rally the troops, let them believe it wasn't over, that there was still some fight left.  Biden did this.

Unfortunately, he looked like an ass doing so..

A tactical victory in that it fired up the Dem base.

A modest strategic loss in that it made Obama/Biden look buffonish to independents and women...
89  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Kimball Political Consulting: Romney +11 on: October 16, 2012, 04:54:34 pm
This is....

A Poll.....

With a set of numbers....
90  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: DailyKos/PPP - National - Romney up 4 on: October 16, 2012, 03:28:12 pm
OK... this one REALLY has me confused....

Amo ng those who have already voted...

Obama 60
Romney 31
Undecided 9

How the %^%$! can somebody who has already voted be "undecided"  WTF?Huh?
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pew poll shows Biden lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 12:13:21 am
In baseball they have a statistic for pitchers called a "hold" which seems to be the best description for what Biden did.

A "hold" is something like the following scenario....

Your starting pitcher gets rocked, gives up 6 runs in the first two innings and gets pulled, and in comes the long reliever with the team down 6-2...

The reliever puts in a decent but not spectacular performance and going into the 7th inning the score is now 8-5...  made up a bit of ground, they team has had a chance to recover, and the game is still up for grabs....

KInda like Biden, he didn't win the game, but he kept it from being lost....
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Predict the effect of the Tuesday, Oct 16th Debate! on: October 15, 2012, 10:18:17 pm

Predict the future!

The RCP average of national polls is basically tied right now, so who gets a bump from debate #2?

Ready, set, pontificate!
93  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 08:17:38 pm

Exit polls are polls, and as such they're not much more "actual" than the Pew numbers. Pew is already polling thousands of people, so their MoE is about as low as you can get. And exit polls and the Pew surveys ask partisan ID questions in slightly different ways, and at different points in the surveys, yadda yadda, so I wouldn't lose a whole lot of sleep over the finer details.

Actually, PEW and Exit polls are different..

The exit polls are reweighted after the fact to exactly match the results of a real election.

They are not perfect, but after they have been reweighed, they are awfully darn close.

But returning to PEW...

PEW said a D +11 in 2008, and now PEW says D +8, ie a 3% R improvement

The trend line identified by Pew is the gap has narrowed by about 3% since 2008, so this would suggest 2012 exit polls of Dem +45or so? based on a 3% change from 2008, as per the PEW trendline?
94  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 07:35:48 pm
Sad that they had to jack the sample from D+3 to D+9 in order to still eek out an Obama lead.  Romney +3

Not this sh!t again!

the basic question is do you believe that Democrats are going to turn out 9 pts higher than Republicans in exit polls this time around?

Lots of former Republicans are now identifying as conservatives.

A helpful graph to this effect:


So what you are saying is that since PEW showed partisan ID advantages of 3% and 11% in 2004 and 2008 respectively for the Dems, while the actualy exit poll results were 0% and 7%, that PEW pulls 3 or 4% to the Dem side?

So based upon this, PEW current 8% advantage is actually 4 or 5% then?
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Possible troll thread: Could the election results spark riots? on: October 15, 2012, 05:42:57 pm
When Obama loses, I think riots are a virtual certainty.
96  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 12:30:00 am
It's nice to see a non-tracking national poll for a change. Hopefully there will be more to come in the next day or two.

I suspect everybody and their dog will have one out in the next two days as pre-debate snapshots.
97  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 49-Romney 46 on: October 15, 2012, 12:19:34 am
If you throw this poll into the mix, we get, give or take fractions of a %, a tied race.

Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 33-22-37 percent
among the general population, 34-25-36 percent among registered voters and 35-26-33 percent
among likely voters.

Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent

The whole issue of partisan "weighting" is more complex than it is made out to be by many.

Firstly, a great many folks who "on the first pass" identify as independents will, if pushed, say they lean to one party or the other. 

This poll did not "push" the independents for a soft party affiliation.  Republicans "typically" pick up a few % on the party ID question if you "push" the independents a bit.

My general rule of thumb is to look at the exit polls for 2004 and 2008.

In 2004 it was pretty much a dead heat GOP to Dems, in 2008 the Dems had about a 7% advantage.

This 0 to D+7 range seems to me to be the "rational" playing field.  Clearly the nation is less enthusiastic than the were in 2008 for Obama, but on the other side of the coin, historically the GOP and Dems being even is also pretty rare. - I think this common sense approach pretty much sets the boundries of a reasonable party ID.
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: As of 10/13, who you think objectively wins Virginia? on: October 13, 2012, 04:28:43 pm
If the election was held today, I think Obama but just barely.

The election will not be held today, and things are moving in Romney's direction.

Ask me again tomorrow Smiley

I am undecided as to if  the Quinnipiac (Obama +5) or the WeAskAmerica (Romney +3) poll is a bigger disaster internally.... it's another close call...
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you think the "Hollywood media" skews the public polls for Obama? on: October 13, 2012, 04:24:05 pm
The media reports what they want to see....  go ahead... check this out for yourself.... I dare you....

This coming for a guy with a graph that shows unemployment over 9%.


It means I haven't updated the graph since early 2011.....

I will be sure to update it to show how the current unemployment is below 5.6%, just as predicted by Mr. Obama....
100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you think the "Hollywood media" skews the public polls for Obama? on: October 13, 2012, 04:21:54 pm
In 2004 between the convention and the first debate, there were 42 national election polls, and George Bush led by an average of 6.1%, breaking the 50% barrier in 18 out of 41.

In a sample of 100 news stories by the national media, 68% of the time the race was referred to as "a toss up" or similar description.

In 2012, in the 86 national polls between the convention and the first debate, Obama lead by an average of 3.2%, and in a sample of 100 national news stories, 79 referred to Obama as leading.

It is easy to check this for yourself, go back to the 2004 poll archive on RealClearPolitics (or any other site) and verify for yourself.

The media reports what they want to see....  go ahead... check this out for yourself.... I dare you....

And guess what? It was a tossup that came down to one or two states.  The national polls are useless. We vote by the electoral college if you remember and we all knew it was coming down to OH, FL, PA, etc, the same states we're battling over eight years later.

My point was not on the actual election, but on how the media reported it...

If Bush is leading by 6.1% is a "tossup", then how is a 3.2% lead "Obama leading".....?

It is very similar to the 2000 exit polls where states won by Bush and/or Gore by essentially identical margins would be called for Gore in minutes, while states won by Bush would often take hours, even though the actual margins and data were very similar....

Seriously, do think Florida getting called for Gore before the polls even closed in the Panhandle was an accident?
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