Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2014, 10:42:50 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 268
176  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 11:16:31 pm
Kucinich is toast, and it looks like Jean Schmidt will narrowly lose as well.
177  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Washington on: March 06, 2012, 11:14:15 pm
DKE finally figured out the numbers for the new districts:

WA-01 - 56-42 Obama
WA-02 - 60-38 Obama
WA-03 - 51-47 Obama
WA-04 - 59-39 McCain
WA-05 - 51-46 McCain
WA-06 - 57-41 Obama
WA-07 - 80-18 Obama
WA-08 - 51-47 Obama
WA-09 - 69-30 Obama
WA-10 - 57-41 Obama

WA-01 is a little more Dem than I expected, and WA-03 didn't shift as much as I thought.
178  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: March 06, 2012, 11:06:30 pm
Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.
179  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 10:34:38 pm
Looks like Joyce Beatty will be the next Congresswoman from OH-03, not Mary Jo Kilroy.

Also, I don't think Kucinich has much of a chance at this point.
180  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 10:04:41 pm
Republican wunderkind Josh Mandel is only getting 62% in his primary, against a bunch of nobodies.
181  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 09:54:49 pm
Nobody seems to care, but Jean Schmidt looks to be in a bit of trouble; she's ahead 49-41, but her lead appears to only be because of the small rural counties that are mostly in.

Joyce Beatty narrowly leads Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-03, while Kaptur/Kucinich is probably going to be very close.
182  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 08:02:17 pm
Paul has a pretty good chance of winning VA-03; he seems to be doing really well in the minority precincts.
183  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:40:09 pm
The SBoE has about half the precincts in for Virginia, guys.
184  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:39:21 pm
Looks like Paul has a shot at winning VA-03.
185  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:28:52 pm
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?

Zero for Virginia unless Paul wins VA-02 or VA-03 (which appear to be the only ones he has a shot at now).
186  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:20:56 pm
Paul won Norton, Virginia. He's close in a few other places.
187  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:06:45 pm
A few votes in from Virginia (no indication of where they're from yet); Romney up 59-41.
188  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 06:55:35 pm
Bumping because Ohio is tonight. AP results here.
189  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: whats a Santorum/Gingrich voter to do in Virginia tomorrow? on: March 06, 2012, 07:58:09 am
Stay home. Turnout is probably going to be low.
190  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Obama campaign to Hill Dems: fend for yourselves. on: March 06, 2012, 07:52:06 am
Why is this a surprise? He did the same thing in 2008.
191  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. Altmire (D-PA) may be thrown off ballot because of where a staffer lives. on: March 04, 2012, 09:23:15 pm
Even if the judge rules against Altmire, he can appeal to federal court, because residency requirements for petition circulators are unconstitutional. They've been struck down in a bunch of states.
192  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: VA-Marist/MSNBC: Romney close to 70% on: March 04, 2012, 07:36:32 pm
Oh well, Paul could have actually hit Romney with some ads and did something here... but no.

Not really; he'd have to win statewide or in a Congressional district to score any delegates. With only two candidates, nothing is proportional in Virginia.
193  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What's the probability that both Gingrich & Santorum are out of race by mid-Apr? on: March 04, 2012, 04:37:45 pm
^ I love how Sam can only write these posts after the fact.

Sam's sheer brilliance, if unleashed prior to events occurring, would cause everyone on the Atlas to disintegrate like the Nazis at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.
194  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NY: Survey USA: Gillibrand Leads Maragos by 30%, with 25% Still Undecided on: March 04, 2012, 04:34:04 pm
This is going to be a race that is polled way too often, just because it's in New York.

That said, it's amusing to see that this poll has Gillibrand only behind the Republican by a 43-33 margin among Republicans.
195  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What's the probability that both Gingrich & Santorum are out of race by mid-Apr? on: March 04, 2012, 03:13:57 pm
I expected Santorum to drop out after Florida, but he didn't. So another spate of losses won't deter him. Plus, after Super Tuesday are some states where he can win (Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi). He'll probably be in at least until Romney collects a majority of delegates.

Gingrich is only still in because of his ego. The only thing he's doing at this point is splitting the anti-Romney vote. Unless he loses Georgia, I expect he'll keep plugging along.
196  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cantor endorses Romney on: March 04, 2012, 03:09:18 pm
This just might help Romney win Virginia.
197  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post your Super Tuesday predictions here on: March 03, 2012, 01:31:06 pm
Alaska - 40% Romney, 26% Paul, 23% Santorum, 11% Gingrich
Georgia - 48% Gingrich, 23% Romney, 18% Santorum, 11% Paul
Idaho - 44% Romney, 24% Paul, 20% Santorum, 12% Gingrich
Massachusetts - 66% Romney, 16% Santorum, 10% Paul, 8% Gingrich
North Dakota - 34% Romney, 28% Paul, 25% Santorum, 13% Gingrich

Ohio - 39% Romney, 34% Santorum, 15% Gingrich, 12% Paul
Oklahoma - 40% Santorum, 28% Gingrich, 22% Romney, 10% Paul
Tennessee - 33% Santorum, 31% Romney, 26% Gingrich, 10% Paul

Vermont - 52% Romney, 23% Santorum, 16% Paul, 9% Gingrich
Virginia - 73% Romney, 27% Paul
198  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '12: The Gregoire Farewell Tour (Featuring Marriage Equality) on: March 03, 2012, 12:41:09 pm
I just drew the district as best I could in DRA (I'm over by 16,000 people, some of the blocks in DRA look to be split between districts) and got 57.1 Obama, 40.8 McCain, and 52.8% Murray. So, no change, really.

57% Obama isn't completely safe, but after 2010 there are only four Republicans in districts that are 57% Obama or greater (Dold, Gerlach, Reichert, and Barletta). And Republicans don't have anyone of, say, Reichert's stature to run.
199  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '12: The Gregoire Farewell Tour (Featuring Marriage Equality) on: March 03, 2012, 08:15:31 am
How liberal is the district? I know that under the old lines the PVI was D+5, but does the GOP how a shot of making a race under the new lines?

The estimate I heard was that it was about 59% Obama. And Republicans only have one state legislator in the district, so they have no bench.
200  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Snowe not running!!!! on: March 02, 2012, 10:24:41 pm
PPP teases their Maine poll:

Quote
Pingree leads all the GOPers in ME by a good margin. Eliot Cutler and Angus King both pretty competitive as independents though
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 268


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines