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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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176  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New Hampshire on: March 13, 2012, 07:14:27 am
Hey, actual news. They're going for a least-change map.
177  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Handicapping new now open WA-01 for November election on: March 13, 2012, 06:51:12 am
One potentially amusing bit about the special: the old 1st, under which the special will be held, is considerably more Democratic than the new 1st. If Koster narrowly wins the full term it's entirely possible for him to lose the special term in which case we have a member of Congress for two months.

Remember Shelley Sekula-Gibbs? I wonder if she holds the record for shortest Congressional tenure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effingham_Lawrence

He wins.
178  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 12, 2012, 07:17:43 pm
Neither of Bachus's opponents have raised much money. I wouldn't bank on an upset there, especially since there would be a runoff.

5/29 Texas
7/31 Texas (runoff)

Thanks, added to OP.
179  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Your prediction for The primary's/caucus on March 13th on: March 12, 2012, 04:58:16 pm
Alabama

Gingrich - 32%
Santorum - 30%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 9%

American Samoa

Romney - 82%
Santorum - 9%
Paul - 6%
Gingrich - 3%

Hawaii

Romney - 48%
Santorum - 22%
Paul - 19%
Gingrich - 11%

Mississippi

Gingrich - 35%
Romney - 30%
Santorum - 26%
Paul - 10%
180  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 12, 2012, 04:46:25 pm
Bumping for tomorrow's AL/MS primaries. One of the Democrats running for the Senate in Mississippi is named Albert Gore Jr. Just putting that out there.
181  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: FL's Resign to Run Law in regards Rubio's VP prospects on: March 11, 2012, 09:32:26 pm
There's no way that a resign to run law could apply to federal officeholders anyway, since it would be unconstitutional for a state to place restrictions that aren't enumerated in the Constitution on members of Congress. See also when a few states tried to implement term limits back in the 90s.
182  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Handicapping new now open WA-01 for November election on: March 11, 2012, 12:54:00 pm
Not a Washingtonian, but I'd say it's tossup/Lean Dem unless Darcy Burner makes it in the top two, in which case Koster would have a decent shot at winning.
183  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: what do you do when you desire something that you cannot have? on: March 10, 2012, 05:58:13 pm
I play video games.
184  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Michael A. Naso Institute of Comedy on: March 10, 2012, 07:10:03 am
Guam may be only .05% of the population but it is worth a lot more than that in our hearts
185  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 07, 2012, 08:29:00 am
So next week is Alabama and Mississippi. Not much going on, just some challengers to incumbents in AL-01, 05, 06, and MS-02. Parker Griffith, for some inexplicable reason, is running again in AL-05.
186  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ohio 2012 Congressional Races on: March 07, 2012, 07:54:34 am
Maybe if Kucinich hadn't attacked the city of Toledo, he would have done better there.

Political genuises you guys are and you missed this one...

U.S. House - District 2 - GOP Primary
625 of 632 Precincts Reporting - 99%
   Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Wenstrup, Brad   GOP   41,120   49%
   Schmidt, Jean (i)   GOP   36,141   43%
   Brush, Tony   GOP   4,161   5%
   Kundrata, Fred   GOP   2,890   3%

*I* noticed it, but nobody read my primaries thread.
187  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 11:16:31 pm
Kucinich is toast, and it looks like Jean Schmidt will narrowly lose as well.
188  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Washington on: March 06, 2012, 11:14:15 pm
DKE finally figured out the numbers for the new districts:

WA-01 - 56-42 Obama
WA-02 - 60-38 Obama
WA-03 - 51-47 Obama
WA-04 - 59-39 McCain
WA-05 - 51-46 McCain
WA-06 - 57-41 Obama
WA-07 - 80-18 Obama
WA-08 - 51-47 Obama
WA-09 - 69-30 Obama
WA-10 - 57-41 Obama

WA-01 is a little more Dem than I expected, and WA-03 didn't shift as much as I thought.
189  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: March 06, 2012, 11:06:30 pm
Numbers were crunched on DKE.

Kind of a crappy map for the Democrats. The immediate casualties are split (Hochul and the Hincheymander for the Dems, Turner and Buerkle for the Republicans), but it puts Israel and McCarthy in marginal (albeit Dem-leaning) districts. Yes, it does improve the Dem performance in most of the upstate districts held by Republicans, but it's not enough to hurt any of them except for Gibson and maybe Hayworth. Plus it doesn't help out Owens at all.
190  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 10:34:38 pm
Looks like Joyce Beatty will be the next Congresswoman from OH-03, not Mary Jo Kilroy.

Also, I don't think Kucinich has much of a chance at this point.
191  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 10:04:41 pm
Republican wunderkind Josh Mandel is only getting 62% in his primary, against a bunch of nobodies.
192  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 09:54:49 pm
Nobody seems to care, but Jean Schmidt looks to be in a bit of trouble; she's ahead 49-41, but her lead appears to only be because of the small rural counties that are mostly in.

Joyce Beatty narrowly leads Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-03, while Kaptur/Kucinich is probably going to be very close.
193  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 08:02:17 pm
Paul has a pretty good chance of winning VA-03; he seems to be doing really well in the minority precincts.
194  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:40:09 pm
The SBoE has about half the precincts in for Virginia, guys.
195  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:39:21 pm
Looks like Paul has a shot at winning VA-03.
196  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:28:52 pm
That's an awful start to tonight for Romney, but it can all be erased in Ohio. How many delegates are we looking at for Paul with 60/40 VA and 33/27 VT?

Zero for Virginia unless Paul wins VA-02 or VA-03 (which appear to be the only ones he has a shot at now).
197  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:20:56 pm
Paul won Norton, Virginia. He's close in a few other places.
198  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Super Tuesday Results Thread on: March 06, 2012, 07:06:45 pm
A few votes in from Virginia (no indication of where they're from yet); Romney up 59-41.
199  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL) on: March 06, 2012, 06:55:35 pm
Bumping because Ohio is tonight. AP results here.
200  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: whats a Santorum/Gingrich voter to do in Virginia tomorrow? on: March 06, 2012, 07:58:09 am
Stay home. Turnout is probably going to be low.
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