No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.

We have the General Assembly election next month in Virginia Beach. Democrats are, for once, actually contesting some of the Republican-held seats: in District 21, incumbent John Welch is being challenged by Democrat Bobby Mathieson, in District 82, the most competitive race in the city this fall, Republican Chris Stolle and Democrat Joe Bouchard are running for an open Republican-held seat, and in District 83, incumbent Bob Purkey is being challenged by Democrat Bob MacIver (who has absolutely no shot at winning, but I'll be voting for him anyway). our other three Delegates (Terrie Suit R-82, Sal Iaquinto R-84, and Bob Tata R-85) are running unopposed, as are our State Senators (Frank Wagner R-7 and Ken Stolle R-8). some other districts have precincts in Virginia Beach, but these guys represent the majority of the city.

2000: Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
2004: Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
2006: Jim Webb (D-VA)

I'm 3 for 3, soon to be 4 for 4!

2002: Spear Lancaster (L-MD).

moved to Virginia in 2006, so I haven't had another gubernatorial election to vote in.