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6676  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA 2009 on: October 14, 2007, 08:44:22 am
For the Democrats, it's State Sen. Creigh Deeds and State Del. Brian Moran. They've basically been running-without-actually-running since the '05 elections were over.

For the Republicans, it's Attorney General Bob McDonnell and Lt. Governor Bill Bolling. There are rumors that Bolling may run in the special election for VA-01; although he doesn't actually live in the district, his old State Senate district lies mostly within the congressional district. There are also the rumors of George Allen making a comeback bid, although I don't know why he would do that -- he'll never be president now, which is the only thing he really seemed to want.

It's interesting to note that, since 1977, Virginians have always elected a Governor from the opposite party of the sitting President. Who knows if there's a correlation there.
6677  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Recalls gaining steam in MI. on: October 13, 2007, 07:50:53 am
If you don't like what your elected officials are doing, then vote them out in the next election. Recalls are only supposed to be used in extreme circumstances. This is absurd.
6678  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 10, 2007, 05:42:31 pm
This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

If he doesn't win the election, he could probably get a job in Giuliani's campaign...
6679  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-09: Battle #4 begins - Sodrel to challenge Hill again in 2008 on: October 09, 2007, 04:20:28 pm
for comparison's sake, here's the last three elections in IN-9:


Hill (D) - 110,454 (50.0%)
Sodrel (R) - 100,469 (45.5%)
Schansberg (L) - 9,893 (4.5%)


Sodrel (R) - 142,197 (49.4%)
Hill (D) - 140,772 (49.0%)
Cox (L) - 4,541 (1.6%)


Hill (D) - 96,654 (51.1%)
Sodrel (R) - 87,169 (46.1%)
Melton (write-in) - 2,745 (1.5%)
Cox (L) - 2,389 (1.3%)

the question is, can the Sodrel people come up with as catchy a slogan as "Bring Back Baron"?
6680  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: New Senate Rankings on: October 09, 2007, 03:49:40 pm

Top Ten Races

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Mark Warner currently has a huge lead over all potential challengers. His lead will shrink, to be sure, but he is the odds-on favorite to win this seat.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. Colorado (open Republican seat) - Rep. Tom Udall has a big lead on fundraising, but the extremely conservative nature of the state's rural areas keeps this from being a sure thing.

4. New Mexico (open Republican seat) - Possible primaries for both parties makes this race filled with uncertainty.

5. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) - Coleman has seen his lead over Al Franken and Mike Ciresi shrink from 20+ percent to 5, which has to have the freshman Senator sweating.

6. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) - If Sununu is Rick Santorum, Smith just may be Mike DeWine. It's much too early to tell, though.

7. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) - This race has been very quiet, but the state's Democratic trend favors Tom Allen, assuming he can convince voters that he would more accurately represent them.

8. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) - The only Democrat in any serious trouble this cycle, Mary Landrieu had better hope for a decent downballot Democratic performance in the 2007 legislative elections. Expect Democrat-turned-Republican State Treasurer John N. Kennedy (no relation) to announce on, oh, November 7.

9. Nebraska (open Republican seat) - The potential Bob Kerrey candidacy is the only thing keeping this seat competitive. If he decides to continue playing schoolmaster, this one is as good as gone for the Democrats.

10. Idaho (open Republican seat) - Highly unlikely to flip, but if Larry Craig keeps embarrassing his party up through election day, Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco might have an outside shot. Plus I had to have an even number.
6681  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many seats... on: October 09, 2007, 07:47:55 am
If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

How does that work, exactly? Merkley raised over twice what Novick raised, and the majority of that was in the month of September alone. Novick has a few thousand more on hand, but I don't see how he could be gloating about that, considering he's been in the race since, like, April.
6682  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Former Presidential Candidate endorses Hillary Clinton on: October 08, 2007, 04:46:18 pm
is Walter Mondale still alive? maybe he'll be next.
6683  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: All Black Hypothetical 2016 Poll! on: October 08, 2007, 04:40:38 pm
don't forget Cynthia McKinney leading the Green ticket.
6684  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MS: Gubernatorial Debate tonight on: October 08, 2007, 04:26:12 pm
No pun intended, but -- Jesus.

I can't say I'll be paying much attention to Mississippi on November 6.
6685  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 08, 2007, 04:20:17 pm


Great way to win over Democrats and liberal/moderate independents, there.

Forget my previous forecast, it'll be Tsongas by double-digits.

Good job, Mass GOP.
6686  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many seats... on: October 08, 2007, 04:18:20 pm
I thought this was for the House when I voted. whoops!

Anyway, if the election was held today, the Democrats would win Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Next year, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Mexico will be highly competitive, and one or two may even drift over to "sure thing" status. I'm not holding my breath on Nebraska -- Kerrey is being too damn coy about running now, and nobody else has a chance against Johanns, especially in an election year.

So I'll say 5 -- the first three and two of ME/MN/OR/NM. I have no idea which.
6687  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Opinions of the Candidates on: October 07, 2007, 05:00:23 pm
My first choice is John Edwards. I'm not sure I even have a second choice. My last two second choices (Obama, then Richardson) have both turned out to be disappointments on the campaign trail. I guess Chris Dodd would be my second choice -- he impressed me in the Dartmouth debate, but I think he's too similar to Kerry (intellectual New Englander) to win the general election. I wouldn't vote for any of the other candidates in the primary, although I would in the general.
6688  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Name the ideology of the preceding poster... on: October 07, 2007, 04:02:19 pm
New Democrat.
6689  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What State is the Previous Poster best suited to Politically? on: October 07, 2007, 11:39:44 am
6690  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What's the last movie you've seen? on: October 07, 2007, 11:30:06 am
I watched the remake of Dawn of the Dead last week. It was okay.
6691  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Post your Senate Q3 fundraising numbers here... on: October 07, 2007, 10:10:41 am
According to MyDD:

Andrew Rice (D-OK) raised $310k. That's pretty impressive for a first-term State Senator in a red state.

Jeff Merkley (D-OR) raised $294k, more than twice than Steve Novick (D-OR), who rasied $125k.
6692  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who gets your vote in the primaries/caucuses? on: October 07, 2007, 10:05:16 am
1. Virginia
2. Primary
3. John Edwards
4. Hillary Clinton
5. huge (since she'll probably have it locked up the week before, on Super Duper Tuesday)

although I may just protest vote if it's that pointless.
6693  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Iowa and the Democratic Triumvirate. on: October 07, 2007, 10:00:23 am
One of the few states Barack Obama currently leads in is Iowa.


Where are you getting this from? I looked at the compilation of polls, and it looks like, aside from one poll where Obama is leading, Hillary is leading in Iowa now.

Hillary will be unstoppable if she wins Iowa. If Edwards or Obama wins Iowa, they'll be competitive, but Hillary will still probably triumph through attrition. (Unfortunately, I say this as an Edwards supporter.)

I seriously do not understand the adulation that Obama receives. His performance in this campaign has been mediocre at best. I was very impressed with his speech at the 2004 convention, but he's been very unimpressive whenever he has to go off-script and debate.
6694  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: warner & richardson --> senat / who will be clintons VP? on: October 07, 2007, 09:52:56 am
Bayh or a moderate Southern/Midwestern Governor -- Mike Easley or Brad Henry, perhaps.

Richardson isn't running for the Senate, by the way. Nor is he running for VP (nor would he *get* it, considering how he's been performing).
6695  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year on: October 07, 2007, 09:47:34 am
With Richardson and Udall out, I'd have to give the edge to Heather Wilson, unfortunately.

Her House seat, on the other hand, will be the Democrats' to pick up.
6696  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R-VA) dies of breast cancer on: October 07, 2007, 09:43:07 am
Basically Virginia's version of Marilyn Musgrave or Michele Bachmann.

So....no comment.

I'm not glad she's dead - but that's a pretty good description of her. 

Her district is not so heavily Republican that it couldn't turn over, but I don't think a Democratic bench even exists in that district.

Her 2006 opponent (who won a whopping 35.5%) made a really idiotic decision to comment about Bush's anti-health care record in his statement of condolences. So that's the state of the 1st District for you.
6697  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 07, 2007, 09:37:19 am
No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.
6698  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Describe your local elections this fall on: October 07, 2007, 09:22:09 am
We have the General Assembly election next month in Virginia Beach. Democrats are, for once, actually contesting some of the Republican-held seats: in District 21, incumbent John Welch is being challenged by Democrat Bobby Mathieson, in District 82, the most competitive race in the city this fall, Republican Chris Stolle and Democrat Joe Bouchard are running for an open Republican-held seat, and in District 83, incumbent Bob Purkey is being challenged by Democrat Bob MacIver (who has absolutely no shot at winning, but I'll be voting for him anyway). our other three Delegates (Terrie Suit R-82, Sal Iaquinto R-84, and Bob Tata R-85) are running unopposed, as are our State Senators (Frank Wagner R-7 and Ken Stolle R-8). some other districts have precincts in Virginia Beach, but these guys represent the majority of the city.
6699  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: your us senate voting history on: September 17, 2007, 06:12:10 pm
2000: Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
2004: Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
2006: Jim Webb (D-VA)

I'm 3 for 3, soon to be 4 for 4!
6700  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your gubernatorial voting histroy on: September 17, 2007, 06:03:26 pm
2002: Spear Lancaster (L-MD).

moved to Virginia in 2006, so I haven't had another gubernatorial election to vote in.
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