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6676  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many seats... on: October 08, 2007, 04:18:20 pm
I thought this was for the House when I voted. whoops!

Anyway, if the election was held today, the Democrats would win Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Next year, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Mexico will be highly competitive, and one or two may even drift over to "sure thing" status. I'm not holding my breath on Nebraska -- Kerrey is being too damn coy about running now, and nobody else has a chance against Johanns, especially in an election year.

So I'll say 5 -- the first three and two of ME/MN/OR/NM. I have no idea which.
6677  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Opinions of the Candidates on: October 07, 2007, 05:00:23 pm
My first choice is John Edwards. I'm not sure I even have a second choice. My last two second choices (Obama, then Richardson) have both turned out to be disappointments on the campaign trail. I guess Chris Dodd would be my second choice -- he impressed me in the Dartmouth debate, but I think he's too similar to Kerry (intellectual New Englander) to win the general election. I wouldn't vote for any of the other candidates in the primary, although I would in the general.
6678  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Name the ideology of the preceding poster... on: October 07, 2007, 04:02:19 pm
New Democrat.
6679  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What State is the Previous Poster best suited to Politically? on: October 07, 2007, 11:39:44 am
6680  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What's the last movie you've seen? on: October 07, 2007, 11:30:06 am
I watched the remake of Dawn of the Dead last week. It was okay.
6681  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Post your Senate Q3 fundraising numbers here... on: October 07, 2007, 10:10:41 am
According to MyDD:

Andrew Rice (D-OK) raised $310k. That's pretty impressive for a first-term State Senator in a red state.

Jeff Merkley (D-OR) raised $294k, more than twice than Steve Novick (D-OR), who rasied $125k.
6682  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who gets your vote in the primaries/caucuses? on: October 07, 2007, 10:05:16 am
1. Virginia
2. Primary
3. John Edwards
4. Hillary Clinton
5. huge (since she'll probably have it locked up the week before, on Super Duper Tuesday)

although I may just protest vote if it's that pointless.
6683  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Iowa and the Democratic Triumvirate. on: October 07, 2007, 10:00:23 am
One of the few states Barack Obama currently leads in is Iowa.


Where are you getting this from? I looked at the compilation of polls, and it looks like, aside from one poll where Obama is leading, Hillary is leading in Iowa now.

Hillary will be unstoppable if she wins Iowa. If Edwards or Obama wins Iowa, they'll be competitive, but Hillary will still probably triumph through attrition. (Unfortunately, I say this as an Edwards supporter.)

I seriously do not understand the adulation that Obama receives. His performance in this campaign has been mediocre at best. I was very impressed with his speech at the 2004 convention, but he's been very unimpressive whenever he has to go off-script and debate.
6684  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: warner & richardson --> senat / who will be clintons VP? on: October 07, 2007, 09:52:56 am
Bayh or a moderate Southern/Midwestern Governor -- Mike Easley or Brad Henry, perhaps.

Richardson isn't running for the Senate, by the way. Nor is he running for VP (nor would he *get* it, considering how he's been performing).
6685  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year on: October 07, 2007, 09:47:34 am
With Richardson and Udall out, I'd have to give the edge to Heather Wilson, unfortunately.

Her House seat, on the other hand, will be the Democrats' to pick up.
6686  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R-VA) dies of breast cancer on: October 07, 2007, 09:43:07 am
Basically Virginia's version of Marilyn Musgrave or Michele Bachmann.

So....no comment.

I'm not glad she's dead - but that's a pretty good description of her. 

Her district is not so heavily Republican that it couldn't turn over, but I don't think a Democratic bench even exists in that district.

Her 2006 opponent (who won a whopping 35.5%) made a really idiotic decision to comment about Bush's anti-health care record in his statement of condolences. So that's the state of the 1st District for you.
6687  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05 on: October 07, 2007, 09:37:19 am
No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.
6688  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Describe your local elections this fall on: October 07, 2007, 09:22:09 am
We have the General Assembly election next month in Virginia Beach. Democrats are, for once, actually contesting some of the Republican-held seats: in District 21, incumbent John Welch is being challenged by Democrat Bobby Mathieson, in District 82, the most competitive race in the city this fall, Republican Chris Stolle and Democrat Joe Bouchard are running for an open Republican-held seat, and in District 83, incumbent Bob Purkey is being challenged by Democrat Bob MacIver (who has absolutely no shot at winning, but I'll be voting for him anyway). our other three Delegates (Terrie Suit R-82, Sal Iaquinto R-84, and Bob Tata R-85) are running unopposed, as are our State Senators (Frank Wagner R-7 and Ken Stolle R-8). some other districts have precincts in Virginia Beach, but these guys represent the majority of the city.
6689  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: your us senate voting history on: September 17, 2007, 06:12:10 pm
2000: Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
2004: Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
2006: Jim Webb (D-VA)

I'm 3 for 3, soon to be 4 for 4!
6690  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your gubernatorial voting histroy on: September 17, 2007, 06:03:26 pm
2002: Spear Lancaster (L-MD).

moved to Virginia in 2006, so I haven't had another gubernatorial election to vote in.
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