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13276  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: November 18, 2007, 04:49:01 pm
Bartlet v. Ritchie, or at least we assume (they never reveal for sure).

Wow I'm a West Wing nerd.
13277  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will a GOP victory destory the current two-party system? on: November 18, 2007, 04:28:53 pm
Democrats would still control at least 45% or so of Congress in a worst case scenario and around half of the Governorships and State Legislators.

Since America is solidly in the Democratic camp when it comes to the major issues of the day, the only way Huckabee or McCain could win would be based on personality. America wouldn't be rejecting Democratic policy, so I don't really see how it would cause the collapse of the party.

And Buchanan was elected in 1856, not 1852.
13278  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Rank top candidates in order of preference on: November 18, 2007, 04:18:58 pm
Biden
Dodd
Edwards
Clinton
Richardson
Obama


McCain
Huckabee
Kucinich
Thompson
Giuliani
Hunter
Romney

Gravel
Keyes
Tancredo
Paul
13279  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Eliot Spitzer be reelected? on: November 18, 2007, 04:04:39 pm
I would go with Option 1, but really, he's been in office for less than a year. Anything could happen.
13280  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Huckabee gives Ron Paul a run for the internet vote on: November 18, 2007, 03:34:07 pm
This is apparently going to be his first Iowa ad... is it really a smart idea to be introducing yourself to a lot of Iowa caucus-goers with a series of Chuck Norris jokes?
13281  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: Presidential Candidate Dies, who takes over? on: November 18, 2007, 03:05:06 am
What would happen if the nominees and the committee that would select a replacement nominee died before the election?
13282  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: November 17, 2007, 07:08:20 pm
Santos v. Vinick
13283  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Huckabee and Polls on: November 16, 2007, 02:26:53 pm
When you click on the polls for the individual states, Huckabee's still lumped in with "others". Now that he's running a clear second in Iowa and about 10% everywhere else, can he be given his own column?
13284  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Ron Paul's Remember the 5th of November. on: November 06, 2007, 01:25:07 am
Ron Paul Graphs has him $12,000 under $4 million, but by my count it seems he did it.

Technically the West Coast still has another 3 hours, so the "day" isn't over yet.

Technically a day is a 24 hour period, so the day is over. That is to say: unless the west coast comes up big now, the early donaters of yesterday are "dropping off" from the most recent 24 hours and therefore Ron Paul's best day to date is behind us.

But the goal was to raise as much money as possible on November 5th and it's still November 5th.


Apparently they got 35,000 donors today and, in what I find perhaps the most impressive statistic of the day, 21,000 of those donors were new donors. Paul's fundraising base is bigger than ever. 
13285  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Ron Paul's Remember the 5th of November. on: November 06, 2007, 12:05:25 am
Ron Paul Graphs has him $12,000 under $4 million, but by my count it seems he did it.

Technically the West Coast still has another 3 hours, so the "day" isn't over yet.
13286  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Ron Paul's Remember the 5th of November. on: November 05, 2007, 02:28:13 am
$275,000 within the first 2 and 1/2 hours... I wouldn't be surprised if they raise $2 million today.
13287  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Steve Beshear vs. Bobby Jindal on: November 04, 2007, 05:45:58 am
Oops - I thought that in polls like this we were picking President/VP and there was some bizarre option whereby you would have the same person run for President and VP. Made sense at the time.

Anyways, I change my vote from Beshear/Jindal to Beshear/Beshear.
13288  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MA-SurveyUSA: Clinton ahead by wide margins on: November 04, 2007, 04:37:59 am
What's even more uncommon is for a candidate to lose their home state but still win the Presidency. It's happened only twice - Wilson in 1916 and Polk in 1844. So unless the Mittster thinks he's the next Wilson or Polk things aren't looking too good for him.

Romney could very well lose MA but win the Presidency - if he, within a year, overcomes 10-30% deficits in states like MN, OR, MO, OH, PA, IA, NM, FL ...

There may be a higher chance of Polk or Wilson coming back from the dead and winning than that...
13289  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MA-SurveyUSA: Clinton ahead by wide margins on: November 04, 2007, 03:55:31 am
What's even more uncommon is for a candidate to lose their home state but still win the Presidency. It's happened only twice - Wilson in 1916 and Polk in 1844. So unless the Mittster thinks he's the next Wilson or Polk things aren't looking too good for him.
13290  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will the Mississippi's Governors race play out. on: November 04, 2007, 02:18:25 am
Barbour: 55.5%
Eaves: 44.5%

Isn't there some Mississippi law that says they must also win a majority of the House districts or something? Is there an outside possibility that Eaves could get a majority of those?
13291  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who should be included in the Democrat's debates prior to the Iowa Caucus? on: November 03, 2007, 03:08:21 pm
If you're polling below the margin of error you're allowed to attend BUT you must wear a gorilla suit and speak in tongues.
13292  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WA: Gregoire Has 63% Approval Rating, According to Non-Partisan Poll on: November 03, 2007, 01:34:49 am
The only thing I see as at all being wrong is that she is "warm and open", her reputation is definately not as such, though personally I think she has done a great job as governor (better than Locke at least who didn't seem to get anything done.)
You're right that that's her reputation, but I've met her several times and the article's accurate. She's very friendly and caring and is probably one of the nicest people I've ever met. I once saw her walking through the Capitol and while passing a school group she stopped to talk to them and then made sure to sign something and talk to every kid. Apparently that's typical behavior, drives her staff nuts.

One of my parents works for her, she is definately not what I would call "warm". Though that is not to say I dont think she has done a great job as Governor, she has definately been able to get things done.
Well, I for one have always found her to be friendly. But I do agree with you that she's been doing a fine job and is much better than Locke.
13293  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WA state rep resigns over cross-dressing gay escort scandal on: November 02, 2007, 05:47:28 am
This guy voted against the landmark 2005 bill in the Legislature that prohibited housing and employment discrimination based on sexual orientation and the 2007 bill establishing domestic partnerships. What a sad hypocrite.

On an unrelated note, while looking through his voting record I found that he sponsored a bill with the title of "Aborted fetal body parts". Eww
13294  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WA: Gregoire Has 63% Approval Rating, According to Non-Partisan Poll on: November 02, 2007, 01:20:46 am
The only thing I see as at all being wrong is that she is "warm and open", her reputation is definately not as such, though personally I think she has done a great job as governor (better than Locke at least who didn't seem to get anything done.)
You're right that that's her reputation, but I've met her several times and the article's accurate. She's very friendly and caring and is probably one of the nicest people I've ever met. I once saw her walking through the Capitol and while passing a school group she stopped to talk to them and then made sure to sign something and talk to every kid. Apparently that's typical behavior, drives her staff nuts.
13295  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WA: Gregoire Has 63% Approval Rating, According to Non-Partisan Poll on: November 01, 2007, 11:11:33 pm
These polls by the UW seem to be way off the mark compared to SurveyUSA's results both on the statewide ballot measures and the approval ratings, and personal I trust SurveyUSA quite a bit more than college polling. I give them an A for effort though.
13296  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: LP Nomination on: October 29, 2007, 02:47:40 am
why did you leave out Aaron Russo?

Because Aaron Russo isn't running?
And now he's dead...
13297  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Iowa Dems schedule caucus for Jan. 3rd on: October 29, 2007, 12:19:58 am
Christmas with the candidates!

I would think January 12th would be a logical date for NH to pick as well.

NH law requires them to go at least 7 days before "any similar contest", and so NH SoS has promised that, with MI going on Jan. 15, the *earliest* possible date for the NH primary would be Jan. 8th.  They could go even earlier than that, but no one expects them to do so.

Oops, you're right - for a second there I thought that it was 7 days after any previous contest.
13298  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Iowa Dems schedule caucus for Jan. 3rd on: October 29, 2007, 12:07:54 am
Christmas with the candidates!

I would think January 12th would be a logical date for NH to pick as well.
13299  Election Archive / 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-2008-Strategic Vision: Gregoire and Rossi in a tight race on: October 24, 2007, 10:14:27 pm
Look for Inslee to run for Governor in 2012 or whenever Gregoire decides not to run again. He's had his eye on the office for more than a decade and he's been dolling out money to State Legislative campaigns trying to build up support.
13300  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Two odd counties in 1988 - was a third party in 2nd place? on: September 30, 2007, 04:24:45 am
They tied in Ferry County, WA. Both get a first place ranking, neither get a second.

Same thing happened in 1984 in Gallatin County, KY.
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