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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 19, 2012, 01:42:39 pm
some people give us ONE map, and hello to lot of "thanks"

I give 274455 maps, and... nothing.


je vous emmârde et je rentre à mâ mâzon
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions on: May 19, 2012, 01:39:24 pm
very interesting, sharif.

Are you from britanny ? (personnaly, I long lived -my mother is britton- in douarn' )
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 17, 2012, 08:53:22 am

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)


me too, that's the best election blog

but really, as french, you could write it in french TOO
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: May 17, 2012, 08:51:50 am
1st presidential election of france, 1848

maps with same color key (red = 22 best results, pink=21 others best results, light blue=21 not good results, blue=22 worst results)

BONAPARTE (nationalist, autoritarian, social-wing, free-trade) 74,33%


CAVAIGNAC (conservative republican, right-wing of republican party) 19,81%


LEDRU-ROLLIN (radical republican, left-wing of republican party) 5,06%


RASPAIL (republican, socialist) 0,51 %


LAMARTINE (republicann centrist) 0,23%


55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 16, 2012, 06:27:54 am
Some map wich divided france between 2 zones : 50% of best results of each candidate (or each family)

PS vs UMP


PS vs FN


PS vs FDG


PS vs MD


UMP vs FN


UMP vs FDG


UMP vs MD


FN vs FDG


FN vs MD


FDG vs MD


PS' France


UMP's France


FN's France


FDG's FRANCE


MODEM's FRANCE


LEFTS's FRANCE (LO+NPA+FDG+EELV+PS)


RIGHTS's FRANCE (UMP+FN+DLR)


FAR-LEFT's FRANCE (NPA+LO+EELV+FDG)


CENTRE-LEFT's FRANCE (PS+MD)


CENTRE-RIGHT's FRANCE (UMP+MD)


CENTRIST's FRANCE (UMP+MD+PS)


ETATIST's FRANCE (FDG+FN+DLR+LO+NPA)

56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belgian Local Elections 2012 on: May 14, 2012, 07:12:48 am
welcome back to old mother france, wallonia ! :mrgreen:
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 14, 2012, 07:10:38 am
Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: May 13, 2012, 05:04:59 pm
Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.
This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.



markets are not rationnals and trust is one of the most important thing in economy.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: May 12, 2012, 09:51:01 pm
everybody will don't care but...i had read that the royalist party of greece was forbidden to run on the election. Apparently, because they don't want to be loyal to the republican consitution.

At the same time, golden showerdawn can run... :/
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 12, 2012, 09:43:53 pm
just for fun (and 'cause i'm addict to make maps...) : the national assembly IF the results of the legislative would be the same as the 1st round of the presidential, and IF the voting methodology would be 100% proportionnal.

A funny assembly, IMO



Don't you think so ? ^^
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 12, 2012, 08:59:25 pm
It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 11, 2012, 12:04:15 pm
The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.


It happen in 1997 french legislative

and it will happen in 2012. UMP's electorate want an alliance, or at less a pact (?) with FN, but national boad of UMP don't want.

In any case, UMP will not split, because of the law of party financing.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: May 11, 2012, 03:59:33 am
SYSRISA is a joke. There is absolutely NO POSSIBILITIES to refuse the bailout AND stay in the eurozone.

At the end of the day, a choice must be made by SYRISA.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 11, 2012, 03:42:58 am
as usual, the night of the 1st round, we'll be the shame of the electoral world, we'll be a third-world country, because the ministry of interior will give the results with a lot of those f... "divers droite", "divers gauche", "divers", "others", as all others country give exact results of ALL parties, even those who scored like 0,02 %


Shame on france :/
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 08, 2012, 03:57:18 am
some maps


evolution fn 1st round 1988-2012




evolution left 2d round, 1974-2012 (quartiles)




evolution left 2d round 1974-2012 (absolute)




eva joly, 1st round (quartiles*)



françois bayrou 1st round (quartiles*)



jean-luc mélenchon 1st round (quartiles*)



marine le pen 1st round (quartiles*)



nicolas sarkozy 1st round (quartiles*)



françois hollande 1st round (quartiles*)





*quartiles, but pondered by national score (upon : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes ; under : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes)
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 08, 2012, 01:39:58 am
as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 10:16:27 am
(but, without this story who make me "gnnnnrrrrr" (^^), I have to say that i love read your blog, not only because the informations I got, but for the sense of humor (? humour?) you develop)


(I like too the fact you use the beautiul names of are former provinces, duchy & county more than the ugly "river-names" of our departements. (frankly, who's the crazy guy who create "ile-et-vilaine"Huh)
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 10:04:15 am
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/



about the "affair" marion/marine, I have discovered than JMLP had want to name is daughter Marine, but the "etat-civil" (in 1968) did'nt accept this name, so, he write "marion"

but her name is, if not de jure, really Marine.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 08:28:32 am
something wich could be important for the next legislative election : national result without overseas territories and without french living out of france


1-hollande............28.13%
2-sarkozy..............27.04%
3-MLP....................18.30%
4-mélenchon.........11.29%
5-bayrou...............9.19%
6-joly.....................2.28%
7-NDA....................1.82%
8-poutou...............1.16%
9-arthaud..............0.56%
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 07:21:21 am



"diolch" ?
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread on: May 04, 2012, 07:19:21 am
who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?

De Gaulle's didn't set the record. If someone did, it's Pompidou in 1969 (winning 57.5% to Poher's 42.4%).

(Naturally, we're talking about two mainstream candidates in a runoff, which rules out any comparisons to 2002).




dindn't count : left people dont vote a lot between centre-right and right candidate
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread on: May 04, 2012, 02:53:35 am
hollande 52-48 sarkozy
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: May 03, 2012, 01:39:07 am
'found a poll....but i'm not certain the date is right

http://www.vprc.gr/uplds/File/teleytaia%20nea/Graphs_PoliticalSurvey_Kontra_April2012.pdf


only 68.4 % of people answering voting a party. So I take the results on base 100 upon base 68.4


SYRISA   18,42
ND   15,2
DIMAR   13,6
KKE   12,72
PASOK   8,63
ANEL   7,89
XA   6,29
LAOS   4,97
greens   4,24
DISY   2,05
DRASI   1,17
ANTARSYA   0,88
autres   3,95
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / genaological tree of french politic parties on: May 02, 2012, 01:56:10 am
socialist party


color keys :
creation
merge
split
renamed
absorbtion


1879 : Socialist Workers of France Party
1882 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party-Federation of Socialist Workers of France
1882 : Worker Party
1890 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party (Allemane)
1902 : French Socialist Party

1881 : Central Revolutionnary Comittee (Blanqui)
1889 : Revolutionnary Socialist Central Comittee (boulangist)
1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union


1882 : Workers Party (Allemane)
1893 : French Workers Party (Allemane)
1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union

1890 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party (Allemane)
1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1893 : Socialist Republican Federation of Seine (Millerrand)
1899 : Federation of Independant Socialists of France
1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France

1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1897 : Central Revolutionnary Comittee (Blanqui)

1898 : Federation of Independant Revolutionnary Socialist Groups
1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France

1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France
1902 : French Socialist Party

1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union
1901 : Socialist Party of France-Revolutionnary Socialist Unity
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1902 : French Socialist Party
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale
1907 : Republican Socialist Party (briandist)
1920 : French Socialist Party (union sacrée, right-wing)
1920 : French Section of Communist Internationale
1933 : Socialist Party of France-Union Jean-Jaurès (Déat)
1948 : Socialist Battle (future PSU)
1958 : Autonome Socialist Party (strong antigaullist)
1965 : Federation of Democrat and Socialist Left (FGDS) (with Radical Party)
1968 : end of FGDS
1969 : Socialist Party
1969 : Clubs Union for the Renwal of Left (Savary)
1969 : Socialist Groups and Clubs Union (Poperen)
1971 : Republican Insitutions Convention (Mitterrand)
1992 : Citizen's Movement (Chevènement)
2008 : Left Party (Mélenchon)
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec 2012/2013 on: April 30, 2012, 05:06:44 pm
sad to see ON and PI under the line of 1% on those elections :/
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