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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative election 2012 on: May 08, 2012, 01:39:58 am
as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 10:16:27 am
(but, without this story who make me "gnnnnrrrrr" (^^), I have to say that i love read your blog, not only because the informations I got, but for the sense of humor (? humour?) you develop)


(I like too the fact you use the beautiul names of are former provinces, duchy & county more than the ugly "river-names" of our departements. (frankly, who's the crazy guy who create "ile-et-vilaine"Huh)
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 10:04:15 am
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/



about the "affair" marion/marine, I have discovered than JMLP had want to name is daughter Marine, but the "etat-civil" (in 1968) did'nt accept this name, so, he write "marion"

but her name is, if not de jure, really Marine.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 08:28:32 am
something wich could be important for the next legislative election : national result without overseas territories and without french living out of france


1-hollande............28.13%
2-sarkozy..............27.04%
3-MLP....................18.30%
4-mélenchon.........11.29%
5-bayrou...............9.19%
6-joly.....................2.28%
7-NDA....................1.82%
8-poutou...............1.16%
9-arthaud..............0.56%
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: May 04, 2012, 07:21:21 am



"diolch" ?
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread on: May 04, 2012, 07:19:21 am
who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?

De Gaulle's didn't set the record. If someone did, it's Pompidou in 1969 (winning 57.5% to Poher's 42.4%).

(Naturally, we're talking about two mainstream candidates in a runoff, which rules out any comparisons to 2002).




dindn't count : left people dont vote a lot between centre-right and right candidate
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread on: May 04, 2012, 02:53:35 am
hollande 52-48 sarkozy
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: May 03, 2012, 01:39:07 am
'found a poll....but i'm not certain the date is right

http://www.vprc.gr/uplds/File/teleytaia%20nea/Graphs_PoliticalSurvey_Kontra_April2012.pdf


only 68.4 % of people answering voting a party. So I take the results on base 100 upon base 68.4


SYRISA   18,42
ND   15,2
DIMAR   13,6
KKE   12,72
PASOK   8,63
ANEL   7,89
XA   6,29
LAOS   4,97
greens   4,24
DISY   2,05
DRASI   1,17
ANTARSYA   0,88
autres   3,95
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / genaological tree of french politic parties on: May 02, 2012, 01:56:10 am
socialist party


color keys :
creation
merge
split
renamed
absorbtion


1879 : Socialist Workers of France Party
1882 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party-Federation of Socialist Workers of France
1882 : Worker Party
1890 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party (Allemane)
1902 : French Socialist Party

1881 : Central Revolutionnary Comittee (Blanqui)
1889 : Revolutionnary Socialist Central Comittee (boulangist)
1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union


1882 : Workers Party (Allemane)
1893 : French Workers Party (Allemane)
1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union

1890 : Revolutionnary Socialist Workers Party (Allemane)
1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1893 : Socialist Republican Federation of Seine (Millerrand)
1899 : Federation of Independant Socialists of France
1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France

1897 : Revolutionnary Communist Alliance
1897 : Central Revolutionnary Comittee (Blanqui)

1898 : Federation of Independant Revolutionnary Socialist Groups
1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France

1901 : Federation of Revolutionnary Socialists of France
1902 : French Socialist Party

1901 : Revolutionnary Socialist Union
1901 : Socialist Party of France-Revolutionnary Socialist Unity
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1902 : French Socialist Party
1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale

1905 : French Section of Workers Internationale
1907 : Republican Socialist Party (briandist)
1920 : French Socialist Party (union sacrée, right-wing)
1920 : French Section of Communist Internationale
1933 : Socialist Party of France-Union Jean-Jaurès (Déat)
1948 : Socialist Battle (future PSU)
1958 : Autonome Socialist Party (strong antigaullist)
1965 : Federation of Democrat and Socialist Left (FGDS) (with Radical Party)
1968 : end of FGDS
1969 : Socialist Party
1969 : Clubs Union for the Renwal of Left (Savary)
1969 : Socialist Groups and Clubs Union (Poperen)
1971 : Republican Insitutions Convention (Mitterrand)
1992 : Citizen's Movement (Chevènement)
2008 : Left Party (Mélenchon)
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec 2012/2013 on: April 30, 2012, 05:06:44 pm
sad to see ON and PI under the line of 1% on those elections :/
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 05:02:57 pm
centre is pretty weak.


In my opinion, this election is a referendum anti-sarko more than other thing
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 04:56:52 pm
same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right


63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 04:52:56 pm
Here it is :

red : absolute majority hollande-mélenchon
blue : absolute majority sarkozy-MLP


64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 04:45:44 pm
i'll made it just now for you, wait a sec
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 04:40:16 pm
i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: April 30, 2012, 04:37:12 pm
My greatest triumph as a political cartographer: the first complete map of France's communes in Atlas color scale (5%). Color-striping for tied communes.

Right-click and zoom in for enormous version.





Huh

how many time have you use for this work of Titans ?


Impressive !
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 30, 2012, 04:34:40 pm
When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.



i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Dutch general election - September 2012 on: April 30, 2012, 04:27:53 pm
some little informations :

zeeland (isles of south-west vote for christian-protestant party)

limburg (south-est) votes for geerd wilders

frise (north) is a strong place of labour

holland (north-west) is a strong place of liberal party

east and south-east is a strong place of CDA, most catholic-wing than protestant-wing party


of course, that are generalities, but historically, those facts are still alive
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / French legislative election 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 08:12:20 pm
first, a very nice link, when you'll find all you want about french political parties.

http://www.france-politique.fr/partis-politiques.htm


next : the very exciting election, this 2012.

-What will happen to UMP ? Would be divided in two wings ? Would be absorbed by MODEM and FN ? Would the situation be the same ?

-socialist party would respect is agreement with EELV or not ? Would there is AGAIN a artificial sustain to this zombie : the radical left party ?

-What will happen to relationship between PCF and PG in FDG ?

-Is the left would gain majority ?
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread on: April 26, 2012, 07:58:52 pm
who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:56:33 pm
like france, seems greeks want another dose of liberalism...
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:55:10 pm
in aggregating ideological "coalition"


left...............................24%
liberal-left-wing............23.5%
green..............................3.5%
liberal-right-wing..........25.5%
right..............................14%
nazi...............................5.5%
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:49:59 pm
one of last polls :

01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)
02-PASOK..................14% (social-liberal)
03-SYRISA.................13% (radical left)
04-ANEL....................11% (national-conservative)
05-KKE......................11% (communist)
06-DIMAR....................9.5% (social-liberal)
07-XA..........................5.5% (nazi)
08-OP.........................3.5% (green)
09-LAOS.....................3% (nationalist)
10-DISY.......................2% (liberal)
11-ANTARSYA..............1% (?est.)(liberal)
12-DRASI....................1% (?est.)(liberal)

13-EPAM.....................1%
(?) (no information. on their site, they speak about FYROM, but, can't determine his political ideology)
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: April 25, 2012, 03:16:15 pm

"bastion" (I don"t remember the english word for that) of each candidate. Don't be surprised to not have a lot of blue departments : it's because the sarkozy vote is less concentrate than the others.

color key : red : mélenchon ; pink : hollande ; orange : bayrou ; blue : sarkozy ; "bonapartist green" : MLP
methodology : best % of each candidate compare to metropolitan result



right-wing departments (sarkozy, NDA, MLP)
methodology : quartile (not based on the national score level, but by division of the 96 departments in 4 quarters : in blue, the 1° to 24° best results, in light blue : the 25° to 48° best results, in pink, 49 to 72 results and in red, the worst results

(this methodology and color key is the same for all the next maps)



left-wing departments (hollande, mélenchon, arthaud, poutou, joly)


"government parties" map (hollande, bayrou, sarkozy) aka the "reasonable france map"



hollandist france


sarkozyst france


marinist france


melenchonist france (as opposite to a lot of analysis made, this map show than melenchonist vote is very near to traditionnal PCF map vote, specially Marchais 1981 vote map)



bayrou's france (the problem of bayrou is that his words of "center-center man" is in opposition with is geographic pattern : the bayrou map is the ARCHTYPE of the eternal french right map, especially in catholic areas)


Norwegian postmenopausal france


NDA france (the same as Villierist france)


arthaudist france


poutouist france (strange map, very few from chaban-delmas 1974 map -a centrist-gaullist candidate, and very few to occupate zone of france in 1940-1942)


lyndonlarouchist france


***********************************************




left vs right (this map not include bayrou and cheminade)



same map, but most affined
blue : right +10 points above total left
light blue : right, less 10 points above total left
pink : left, less 10 points above total right
red : left, +10 points above total right
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: April 24, 2012, 01:06:38 pm
I have to admit i had sh**ting a lot. So, i will not made no one prevision and only bring maps (i have even made a cheminade map^^)

see you tomorrow folks
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