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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:56:33 pm
like france, seems greeks want another dose of liberalism...
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:55:10 pm
in aggregating ideological "coalition"


left...............................24%
liberal-left-wing............23.5%
green..............................3.5%
liberal-right-wing..........25.5%
right..............................14%
nazi...............................5.5%
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2012 on: April 26, 2012, 07:49:59 pm
one of last polls :

01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)
02-PASOK..................14% (social-liberal)
03-SYRISA.................13% (radical left)
04-ANEL....................11% (national-conservative)
05-KKE......................11% (communist)
06-DIMAR....................9.5% (social-liberal)
07-XA..........................5.5% (nazi)
08-OP.........................3.5% (green)
09-LAOS.....................3% (nationalist)
10-DISY.......................2% (liberal)
11-ANTARSYA..............1% (?est.)(liberal)
12-DRASI....................1% (?est.)(liberal)

13-EPAM.....................1%
(?) (no information. on their site, they speak about FYROM, but, can't determine his political ideology)
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: April 25, 2012, 03:16:15 pm

"bastion" (I don"t remember the english word for that) of each candidate. Don't be surprised to not have a lot of blue departments : it's because the sarkozy vote is less concentrate than the others.

color key : red : mélenchon ; pink : hollande ; orange : bayrou ; blue : sarkozy ; "bonapartist green" : MLP
methodology : best % of each candidate compare to metropolitan result



right-wing departments (sarkozy, NDA, MLP)
methodology : quartile (not based on the national score level, but by division of the 96 departments in 4 quarters : in blue, the 1° to 24° best results, in light blue : the 25° to 48° best results, in pink, 49 to 72 results and in red, the worst results

(this methodology and color key is the same for all the next maps)



left-wing departments (hollande, mélenchon, arthaud, poutou, joly)


"government parties" map (hollande, bayrou, sarkozy) aka the "reasonable france map"



hollandist france


sarkozyst france


marinist france


melenchonist france (as opposite to a lot of analysis made, this map show than melenchonist vote is very near to traditionnal PCF map vote, specially Marchais 1981 vote map)



bayrou's france (the problem of bayrou is that his words of "center-center man" is in opposition with is geographic pattern : the bayrou map is the ARCHTYPE of the eternal french right map, especially in catholic areas)


Norwegian postmenopausal france


NDA france (the same as Villierist france)


arthaudist france


poutouist france (strange map, very few from chaban-delmas 1974 map -a centrist-gaullist candidate, and very few to occupate zone of france in 1940-1942)


lyndonlarouchist france


***********************************************




left vs right (this map not include bayrou and cheminade)



same map, but most affined
blue : right +10 points above total left
light blue : right, less 10 points above total left
pink : left, less 10 points above total right
red : left, +10 points above total right
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread on: April 24, 2012, 01:06:38 pm
I have to admit i had sh**ting a lot. So, i will not made no one prevision and only bring maps (i have even made a cheminade map^^)

see you tomorrow folks
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 18, 2012, 07:03:27 pm
polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.






well...We'll see sunday (sunday after 20h for me, I don't want to know before via twitter or facebook, i wanna the excitation of the last minute before 20:00 )
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: April 18, 2012, 07:45:08 am
polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?
58  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: I am so proud. on: April 11, 2012, 04:37:24 am
our political system again to see a good man with no money or organization go head to head with a behemoth


obviously, no. Money had win, again.
59  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:17:43 pm



forgive me, it's only a joke against IWVFOIIMNTN Wink
60  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:14:03 pm
Romney wins DC, all 19 delegates.  CNN

Cheesy


Obama wins USA, 379 delegates.  CNN

Cheesy
61  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:13:02 pm
nice : I know now were is the famous city of US Football : green bay

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/wi
62  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:08:19 pm
pretty name!
63  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:03:02 pm
MR 43% pfff, 'going to bed :/

In the exit polls.


even. 8 points lead is too much for make suspense (and the previous polls said romney win too, so I dont bet 1 guatemala dollar than santorum will win)
64  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 08:00:53 pm
MR 43% pfff, 'going to bed :/
65  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 07:58:13 pm
By the way, why DC is so democratic?

It's filled with government employees.




funny, in a way, when you think 150 years ago, the republican were federalist and the democrats were "statists" (confederalists?)
66  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread on: April 03, 2012, 07:55:49 pm
By the way, why DC is so democratic?
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: April 03, 2012, 07:53:06 pm
at this point, we have an (awful) final between delano-the-myth-of-new deal and ronnie-the-friend-of-the-richs :/
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: April 01, 2012, 10:22:30 am
(the votes for the 1st round will be close in 7 days, so, sunday 8)
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: April 01, 2012, 10:21:00 am
at the date of sunday, 17h20

1   ROOSEVELT   31,82   %
2   LINCOLN   13,64   %
3   REAGAN   13,64   %
4   WASHINGTON   9,09   %
5   JEFFERSON   9,09   %
6   PAUL   4,55   %
7   TEDDY R.   4,55   %
8   TRUMAN   4,55   %
9   EISENHOWER   4,55   %
10   NIXON   4,55   %
11   KENNEDY   0   %
12   WILSON   0   %

70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Battle of the Extremists! Bernie Sanders (I-VT) vs Ron Paul (R-TX) on: April 01, 2012, 10:02:57 am
i would like to play, but i don"t know at all who is bernie sanders (ok, going to wiki)
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: April 01, 2012, 10:01:06 am
Theodore Roosevelt wins a write-in vote with 137% of the vote. Smiley



oops, very sorry, i have forgot teddy Sad
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: April 01, 2012, 09:59:55 am
Write-in: Harry Truman.

Ya. If we're talking good Presidents, Wilson & Nixon should be out, & Truman & TR would be welcome additions.



truman? the war-criminal ?
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bradford West by-election - 29th March on: April 01, 2012, 09:51:52 am
@comrade : dont despise blackburn : one day, the red rose of lancashire will rule the kingdom again Wink
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: March 31, 2012, 03:04:20 pm
Can you post it in French?

ce soir, dans le sondage quotidien de l'IFOP-MEDEF, total gauches 44%

ce chiffre me semble à la fois très faible, après 10 ans de sarkozysme, et bien haut, étant donné les résultats catastrophiques des gauches à toutes les présidentielles, période 74-88 exceptée


hollande devrait faire le score habituel du candidat PS, entre 22 et 25%

reste entre 18 et 23% pour le reste des gauches selon les deux hypothèses (hollande à 22 ou 25, gauches à 40 ou 45)


si bayrou reste à 10, reste 50 % entre sarko, MLP et dupont.

10 des 30 pts de sarko de 2007 venaient de l'EXD. Il semble pour le moment avoir réussi une fois de plus à les séduire, ce qui laisse MLP à 20 ou 15 (hypothèse non-gauches à 60 ou à 55)

pour sarko, si les gauches font 45, ça tombe à 25.

Si 50 % des sarko-frontistes de 2007 reviennent chez MLP, ça donne sarko 25 (gauches à 40%) ou sarko 20 (gauches à 45%), et MLP 20 (gauches à 40%) ou 25 (gauches à 45%)



bon, là, je tiens pas compte des machines électroniques à voter, deubeulou-like, qui sont évidemment là pour frauder.


Autre hypothèse, un effrondrement de hollande et une montée de méluche. Laissons 5 % aux débris de la gauche de la gauche (artaud, poutou, joly), on a soit 40 soit 35 % à se partager entre les deux candidats.

Le PS est le parti aux scores les plus instables de l'histoire électorale. Donc on pourrait hypothétiquement avoir 20/20 entre les deux, voire 25-15 avantage mélenchon, mais ça m'étonnerait quand même.


Bref, bayrou me semble out du jeu. En 2007, il avait profité du rejet massif de royal de la part d'un bon nombre de gens de gauche et du rejet du discours droitier de sarko.

Mais les 4 autres peuvent se qualifier. Seule finale impossible : hollande vs mélenchon.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / THE GIANTEST ELECTION : back from the grave on: March 30, 2012, 05:57:07 pm
rules : 2 rounds. The 1st and the 2nd goes to final round.
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