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526  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Olmert: Jerusalem must be partitioned on: May 25, 2012, 08:41:12 pm
... it is extremely unlikely that many would be happy about mass deportation or extermination.

I disagree, I think this is quite a popular opinion, and one that wouldn't simply go away even if they did get a state.

Have no doubt, it's popular in Israel. And, yes, I mean it Sad

Now, to be clear, I got what you, actually, meant. And, of course, you also have a point. Except that  that, given the relative strength of the parties, it is not at all likely to go beyond sick fantasies.

It's true that they can't actually carry this out in full but this is what suicide bombings are meant to do, and the more they are capable of doing this the more they will do this. Which is why I think negotiations, peace treaties and the concessions that come with them are counter-productive and just lead to more fighting.
527  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Olmert: Jerusalem must be partitioned on: May 25, 2012, 06:41:28 pm
... it is extremely unlikely that many would be happy about mass deportation or extermination.

I disagree, I think this is quite a popular opinion, and one that wouldn't simply go away even if they did get a state.
528  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Christian hardcore on: May 22, 2012, 02:22:24 pm
Never heard of Christian hardcore, but I dislike both Christianity and hardcore.
529  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mississippi lawmaker cites Bible passage that calls for gays to be put to death on: May 22, 2012, 05:07:04 am
The punishments mentioned in the Bible no longer apply.

Quote
Impaled high above the cross the sins of the world pour out from your hands and feet. Mocked and defiled, embedded in your head are thorns. This is love. Lord, I am eternally grateful. My heart is all I have to give. Now religion has destroyed. This was never how things were meant to be. We are no longer bound by the law. In his blood we find freedom. We are saved by grace. So give me peace through these times of struggle, and hope through these times of despair. Give me the heart of a servant, so I may worship with all of my life. Your religion is dead, but Jesus, you give life. This is my purpose: to live for your glory. Lord, I give you praise. You died for me, I will live for you. I would give my life for this.


The New Testament is also homophobic so I'm not sure how useful this is as a defence of gays.
530  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OK: SoonerPoll: Romney with a chance at 70% in Oklahoma on: May 22, 2012, 02:25:14 am
The part about Democrats seems doubtful--OK has blacks, and Obama did much better with them in 2008. The final margin will likely be anywhere from 62% Romney (a significant improvement from 2008) to 67% Romney (good year)
Only 7% black.

There are more Native Americans than blacks.

A group which is just as Democratic as blacks.

Not in Oklahoma.
531  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OK: SoonerPoll: Romney with a chance at 70% in Oklahoma on: May 21, 2012, 03:57:58 pm
The part about Democrats seems doubtful--OK has blacks, and Obama did much better with them in 2008. The final margin will likely be anywhere from 62% Romney (a significant improvement from 2008) to 67% Romney (good year)
Only 7% black.
532  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Olmert: Jerusalem must be partitioned on: May 20, 2012, 06:55:28 pm
A good thing he's a former PM.
533  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel opinion poll thread on: May 19, 2012, 06:17:11 am
It seems the next election will continue the tradition of Israeli centrist parties quickly rising up and then disappearing and being replaced by a new centrist party.
534  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel opinion poll thread on: May 18, 2012, 02:07:14 am
New poll:

Likud- 30
Labour-20
Future- 17
Yisrael Beitenu- 12
Shas-6
National Union- 6
Meretz- 6
UTJ- 5
Hadash-4
Kadima- 3 (lol)
Jewish Home- 3
Balad- 3
UAL- 3
Independence- 2

Lapid seems to be the biggest gainer from Kadima entering the coalition.
535  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 12, 2012, 02:22:34 am
Wait, Livni's back into things? Didn't she say she was permanently out of politics like less then a week ago?

When she resigned from the Knesset she said she would remain in public life so it's clear we haven't seen the last of her.
536  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 11, 2012, 04:45:35 pm
Haaretz is reporting that 5 Kadima MKs are all but ready to bolt - at least, if they get two more to go w/ them (you need 7 MKs not to be bound by the anti-defection law).  Interestingly, all five are somewhat "strange" ethnically, three of them ex-Soviet, but only one Ashkenazic: Russian (Orit Zuaretz), a Georgian (Nino Abesadze), a Mountain (Tat) Jew (Robert Tiviaev) as well as an Ethiopian (Shlomo Molla) and a Druze (Majallie Whbee).

In other news, outside Knesset, both Tzipi Livny and Haim Ramon (one of the key co-founders of the party from the "left" and the chairman of its Council) have left Kadima and are planning to form a new party.

If they succeed in finding two more MK's it will be very ironic as the law that allows just 7 to defect (instead of a third) is called the "Mofaz law" because it was originally passed to allow Mofaz to leave Kadima and join the coalition.

Livni's decision to leave looks really silly in hindsight as she could have split and led the new party, but instead will now be out of the knesset until at least the next elections.

Orit Zuaretz came when she was 4 in 1971 rather than the post USSR collapse immigration wave, no one thinks of her as Russian. And while the ethnic makeup might be interesting they have in common them being Livni loyalists.
537  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 10, 2012, 11:53:46 am
Coming into coalition w/ Netaniyahu "from the left" is suicidal. Barak's not a complete nincompoop: he, actually, managed to get to be a PM, didn't he? And look what's this done to him.

Barak's problem is that while he can get into positions of power, he tends become hated after that. His big loss of popularity happened not when he entered Likuds coalition, but during his tenure as PM.

Being associated w/ the "wrong sort" ...  Kadima is, essentially, a Likud splinter, graced w/ a few ex-Laborites for a show.  Are they REALLY associated w/ different people?



That may be so but in 2009 Likud and Kadima had very different electorates nonetheless. The former looked like the classic Likud electorate, being stronger in poorer cities especially in the periphery, and rural Mizrachi areas. Whereas Kadima was clearly a more left wing electorate being stronger in wealthy cities in the centre and the Askenazi rural areas.
538  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 09, 2012, 04:59:47 pm
Nothing I say in this thread means I think Kadima will do well in the next election. But that is because I think very lowly of Mofaz's political skills and mass appeal, and I think a better politician could have entered the coalition and come out looking better than Mofaz can.
539  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 09, 2012, 04:50:09 pm
People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.

Disliking Netaniyahu and liking Mofaz.... Hm., that's a particularly perverted taste. Are there many of those? (I AM being disingenious here, but only somewhat). After a year in this coalition, Kadima will be associated exactly with the same sort of people, anyway.

Not necessarily liking Mofaz, plenty of Israelis don't like any politician, But if they apathetic or dislike Mofaz less than Bibi that could be enough.

And being associated with a certain segment in the population is a party specific thing and not to the coalition as a whole. All the parties to the right of Meretz have served with almost every other parties and it hasn't stopped stopped parties from retaining distinct voting groups anyway.
540  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 09, 2012, 02:19:34 pm
So, is Shinui 2.0 or whatever Lapid's party is called going to eat most of Kadima?  I thought they have roughly the same voter demos.

Basically yes together with Labour, they might still keep their votes but the centrist vote is especially fickle so Centrist parties are prone to quickly rising and crashing down again and unless Mofaz can make his party appealing somehow to these voters they will disappear. And from what I have seen of Mofaz so far I wouldn't trust him to be able to do that.
541  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 09, 2012, 12:46:37 pm
It's not that the people should/would be unhappy about them joining the coalition. It's that it's not clear, what's the difference between them and Likud. If you don't like the government: well, vote for the opposition. If you like the government: vote for the government - that is, Likud. What's their niche?

People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.


Netaniyahu is, by far, a better politician than Mofaz. This is still going to be the Netaniyahu government, on which Kadima will struggle to make any imprint. What are the positions they are getting, besides the minister w/ out portfolio?

Agreed about Bibi being a better politician. They will be getting some committee chairmanships and there is media speculation that they will be getting some ministries soon. Obviously they would be getting much more if they entered the coalition after the election from a position of power.
542  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 09, 2012, 09:38:43 am
Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.

Well, good for them. They should start merger negotiations as soon as possible - otherwise they are running the risk of missing the next Knesset even more decisively. And, given their recent decisions, it's clear they are valuing being in that House a lot Smiley)

I'm not sure the decision to enter the coalition will necessarily harm them in the next election. It's clear that a significant portion of centrists wanted Kadima to enter the coalition and are happy with the decision. The first poll after the decision doesn't show any movement away from Kadima. IMO the worst looking thing for Kadima is the flip-flopping, but I doubt many people will remember and/or care much about that in 18 months.
543  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel opinion poll thread on: May 09, 2012, 08:42:58 am
Poll conducted yesterday (after the new of new coalition):

Likud: 33
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Kadima: 11
Shas: 8
Future: 6
UTJ: 6
Meretz:6
Jewish Home- National Union: 5
Arab parties- 10

Do you support the new coalition agreement:

Yes: 39.6%
No: 31.9
Don't know: 28.4%

Who is most suitable to be prime minister:

Bibi: 39.8%
Shelly: 11.3%
Lapid: 7%
Mofaz: 4.5%
Lieberman: 4.2%
544  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 08, 2012, 04:51:59 pm
Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.
545  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 08, 2012, 04:11:53 pm
This isn't actually the broadest as the Shamir-Peres coalition had 97 MK's.

Also Mofaz has a thing or two to teach Romney about flip-flopping. The media is having a field day with videos of Mofaz for months saying terrible things about Bibi and what a failure. Also promising very clearly that there is no chance that he will join the coalition and that he is the only one who can stand up to and replace Bibi. Worst of all is that the day before the deal was announced he blamed Shelly that she is pretending to be an opposition while secretly making a deal with Bibi while secretly doing exactly that very thing himself.
546  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections on: May 08, 2012, 04:10:51 pm
This isn't actually the broadest as the Shamir-Peres coalition had 97 MK's.

Also Mofaz can teach Romney how to flip-flop. The media is having a field day with videos of Mofaz for months saying terrible things about Bibi and what a failure. Also promising very clearly that there is no chance that he will join the coalition and that he is the only one who can stand up to and replace Bibi. Worst of all is that the day before the deal was announced he blamed Shelly that she is pretending to be an opposition while secretly making a deal with Bibi while secretly doing exactly that very thing himself.
547  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli general election 2012 on: May 08, 2012, 12:09:51 am
Yes, I was surprised by this. The election looked like a done deal.

I don't know that much about Israeli politics but this looks pretty good for everyone except Kadima and the religious parties. Likud no longer has to rely on the really extreme little parties and Labor gets a year as official opposition to get its act together, unite the anti-Likud vote, and not get imminent destroyed in an election. I bet Lieberman is happy too. I have no idea what Kadima could gain from this.

Kadima has most to gain by this since they were going to get destroyed in the election. Labour are the biggest losers (maybe along with the Haredim) as they were up in the polls and would become the second party, and they might have to wait a year and a half.
548  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli general election 2012 on: May 07, 2012, 05:05:01 am
Regarding the lists, there is a deadline on July 19 for parties to submit the names. Democratic parties will have primaries so we will know their lists whenever those are done. For the rest of the parties it is up to them if they want to say anything before the deadline.
549  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli general election 2012 on: May 07, 2012, 04:59:36 am
Is Yachimovich still pandering to the settlers, or has she realized how dumb that was yet?  And has she uttered a single word about peace since she became leader?  Also, any word (besides Noam Shalit) on potential or confirmed candidates on Labor's Knesset list, besides current MK's?  I'm interested to see whether it'll be mainly old-timers who lost their seats in 2009 or new faces, and if it's the latter, whether it'll be mainly the social protest type or the peace type, or both. 

Yechimovich didn't pander to settlers, that really would be dumb, as they wouldn't vote for her. What she does want to do is not sound to left wing so that she can take of votes from the centre parties.
550  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli general election 2012 on: May 05, 2012, 03:51:41 pm
Lapid hasn't revealed yet who will be on his list.

I believe Kadima and especially Lapid would follow netanyahu on this issue. Lapid because he is easily replaceable with the Haredi parties, which is the last thing he wants. As for Kadima, I'm not convinced Mofaz as prime minister would be very different himself.
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