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526  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: February 03, 2013, 08:38:39 am
Stability isn't necessarily a good thing, North Korea is currently a very stable hellhole. I actually think Libya has gotten better even though it has become less stable.
527  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 31, 2013, 09:52:43 am

So when will we know about cabinet posts and jazz like that?

Theoretically, the deadline for the formation of a new government is 20/3, but it will probably take less than that.

And here is the first post election poll from mako:

Yesh Atid - 27
Likud Beitenu- 25
JH-NU - 15
Labour - 12
Shas - 9
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 7
The Movement - 4
Hadash - 4
Raam-Taal - 2
Balad -2
Otzma- 2
Kadima - 2
Am Shalem - 2

If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.
528  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 27, 2013, 02:45:58 pm
Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.

Ale Yarok is fine in the sense that it is normal for parties without much of an opinion on left/right issues to be considered centre.

You could also add Eretz Hadasha to the Left and Koach Lehashpia to the Haredi.

Also, while I don't have a problem with this, Shelly and Livni would disagree, as they don't like being called left.
529  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 27, 2013, 09:06:52 am
Danny, do you know if Tzipi Hotovely supports civil marriage?

She is against, but isn't opposed to Israel's domestic partnership equivalent (which includes gays).
530  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 10:22:05 pm
Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.

I'm shocked Balad got .66% of those votes. Trollin'?

Double envelope is not only soldiers, it includes diplomats, hospital patients, and probably most important in this case, prisoners.
531  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 02:01:23 pm
Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.
532  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 06:09:36 am
Hey Danny, I had some hard accident last week so using my hands is a bit hard (this is why I made my lovely sister type this). Can you post a tel aviv only map divided to districts?

Hope you get better.

As for a map, just zoom in to this one.
533  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 04:14:37 am
My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Same place in 2009:

Likud: 24.5%
Kadima: 16.3%
Labour: 13.2%
National Union: 10.7%
Jewish Home: 8.7%
Meretz: 5.6%
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.1%
Shas: 4.8%
UTJ: 3.9%
Green Movement: 2%
534  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 04:09:07 am
I don't pay too much attention to these reports as they are full of political spins.
535  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 07:15:28 pm
I don't know about the settlements, but I do know that amongst the double envelope votes mostly soldiers), Ale Yarok got 4%. They also get a high percent in certain specific rural places, like kadita for example where they got 18%.
536  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:27:48 pm
Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.
537  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:01:39 pm
Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.
538  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 03:55:36 pm
It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.
Did this turn out accurate?

Yes, Shuly Mualem from JH is in, and Taleb A-Sanaa from RAAM-TAAL is out.
539  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 03:16:22 pm
Final turnout was 67.79%, up 2.5% overall and 3% amongst Arabs.


3,834,136 total votes cast, 41K spoiled votes and 270K for parties below the minimum threshold of 75,864, compared with just 104K in 2009.
540  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:44:59 am
How long before Kadima dies?

It may not die at all, it depends on how well Lapid performs, and if Olmert returns for the next elections.
541  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:42:49 am
It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.
542  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 05:51:19 pm
The results for Kadima are really interesting and somewhat weird.

Kadima's best cities:

#1 - Isfiya
Quote
Isfiya (Arabic: عسفيا‎), also known as Ussefiya, is a Druze village and local council in northern Israel. Located on Mount Carmel, it is part of Haifa District. In 2009 it had a population of 25,400. In 2003, the local council was merged with nearby Daliyat al-Karmel to form Carmel City. However, the new city was dissolved in 2008 and the two villages resumed their independent status.

Results:
36% Kadima
20% Likud Beitenu
8% Labor
8% Hadash
7% Balad
6% HaTnuah
4% Meretz
4% UAL-Ta'al
3% Yesh Atid
2% Ale Yarok (Marijuana legalization party)
1% Shas

#2 - Kfar Aza
Quote
Kfar Aza (Hebrew: כְּפַר עַזַּה, lit. Gaza Village) is a kibbutz in southern Israel. Located between Netivot and Sderot around three kilometres east of Gaza, it falls under the jurisdiction of Sha'ar HaNegev Regional Council. In 2006 it had a population of 760.

Results:
33% Kadima
26% Labor
15% Meretz
9% Yesh Atid
4% HaTnuah
4% Likud Beitenu
3% JH
3% Eretz Hadasha Huh
1% Hadash
1% Am Shalem

#3 - Yish'i
Quote
Yish'i (Hebrew: יִשְׁעִי, lit. My Salvation) is a moshav in central Israel. Located near Beit Shemesh, it falls under the jurisdiction of Mateh Yehuda Regional Council. In 2006 it had a population of 559.

The village was established on 12 July 1950 by immigrants from Yemen. Its name it taken from Psalms 27:1;

The LORD is my light and my salvation; whom shall I fear? The LORD is the stronghold of my life; of whom shall I be afraid?

Results:
29% Kadima
24% Shas
24% JH
8% Koah LeHashpi'a Huh
5% Otzma LeYisrael
3% UTJ
3% Yesh Atid
2% Am Shalem
1% HaTnuah
1% Ale Yarok
1% HaYisraelim Huh
1% Labor

(Yep, no votes for Likud Beitenu)

#5 - Noga
Quote
Noga (Hebrew: נֹגַהּ, lit. Brightness) is a moshav in the Hevel Lakhish in south-central Israel. It belongs to the Lakhish Regional Council. It is located 5 or 6 km west of Kiryat Gat, and it can be reached via Route 352.
The moshav was founded in 1955 by immigrants to Israel from Iraq and Iran on part of the land of al-Faluja. The name "Noga" is symbolic of the brightness of Jewish Zionist settlement in Hevel Lakhish.

Results-
38% Likud Beitenu
24% Kadima
8% Shas
7% Yesh Atid
6% JH
5% Labor
4% HaTnuah
2% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz


#5 - Hurfeish
Quote
Hurfeish (Arabic: حرفيش‎; Hebrew: חֻרְפֵישׁ) (lit. "milk thistle") is an Druze town in the Northern District of Israel.

Hurfeish was declared a local council in 1967. According to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) it had a total population of 5,200 in 2006, with a growth rate of 1.9%. The majority of residents are Druze, with a small number of Christians and Muslims. A large percentage of the population are police and army officers, serving with the Israel Police and the Israel Defense Forces.

Results:
35% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
14% Shas
7% Labor
6% HaTnuah
4% Am Shalem
3% Hadash
3% JH
3% Yesh Atid
2% Meretz
1% Balad
1% UTJ


#6 - Margaliot
Quote
Margaliot (Hebrew: מַרְגָּלִיּוֹת; Arabic: هونين‎) is a moshav in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel, located along the border with Lebanon, near the town of Kiryat Shmona. It is part of the Mevo'ot HaHermon Regional Council. The settlement is home to approximately 400 residents, most of them Jews of Iranian Kurdistan descent.

Results:
24% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
13% JH
12% Labor
9% Yesh Atid
6% Shas
4% Koah LeHashpi'a (Here this thing is again)
4% HaTnuah
2% Ale Yarok
1% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz
1% Am Shalem
1% UTJ




Looks like a mix of Druze towns and moshavim overall.

Koah LeHashpi'a (power to influence) is a particularly rediculous party, led by Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak who likes making ridiculous promises ("Bread for a shekel"). He takes most of his votes from Shas, which is the only positive thing I can say about him.

As for Kfar Aza, it's the home of MK Shai Hermesh who has a big personal following there which helped Mofaz against Livni in the primaries.
543  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 05:30:24 pm
The final 240K votes will be counted tonight. These are the "double envelope" votes, which are cast by soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, and hospital patients. So we could see a change of a couple of mandates.
544  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Highest Republican vote margins on: January 23, 2013, 02:56:59 pm
Greenville, SC 53.6K.
545  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 02:11:01 pm
My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?

Kiryat Yovel, Jerusalem.
546  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 10:40:43 am
My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%
547  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 09:57:40 am

A different map, this one is less user friendly but has better detail if you zoom in.
548  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 23, 2013, 03:11:54 am
Map.
549  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 22, 2013, 08:10:32 pm
Kadima seems to be doing better than exit polls suggest.  They might actually cross 2%

They actually got 1.99% in the channel 2 exit poll.
550  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 22, 2013, 06:21:31 pm
A 62 seat coalition is not a realistic possibility. Too many worries about defections (from crazy right-wings in JH and left-wings in Yesh).

Even if it was a stable, guaranteed 62 though, Netanyahu wouldn't go for it. He has a boner for broad coalitions.

I didn't say that those would be the only parties.

Hatnuah or UTJ/Shas in addition?

I said without the Shas/UTJ, so Hatnuah and/or Labour.
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