Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 23, 2017, 06:58:30 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 ... 58
526  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Overrated movies. on: February 20, 2013, 02:39:15 pm
Star Wars and Citizen Kane.
527  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: February 20, 2013, 11:24:23 am

Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.

That would be easy to achieve.  Even if somehow she winds up in charge of some negotiations (not likely in the first place), a determined boss doesn't have to do much to ensure that the subordinate fails miserably (it would be enough to intimate to the other side, in private, that Livni is not authorized to represent anyone, but herself - and doing it without providing anyone with the smoking gun isn't hard either). Push comes to shove, a "targeted" bombing of somebody somewhere, or a few new houses on the territories, will do the trick admirably.0

In any case. That Netaniyahu would rather hang himself (and so would most of his voters), than conclude a peace agreement, is too much of a common knowledge.  Livni can't be such an idiot to even try. If she goes into this government, it is not to do miracles.

Livni being in charge of negotiations was part of the agreement. And I think Bibi would personally like to reach an agreement, but doing so would require pulling a "Sharon", which I don't think he would be willing to do.
528  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: February 19, 2013, 10:13:32 pm
I'd seen it reported but I didn't believe it. It just makes no ideological sense.

Israeli governments rarely do.


Where does Netanyahu go from now? Likud-Shas-UTJ-Livni is still short of a majority.

Labor?

So he gives Livni control over diplomatic issues and Yacimovich control over economic ones. What's left for Likud?
He's still going to need Yesh Atid and Jewish Home.

The only thing he'll be strongly conservative on is continued coddling of the ultra-Orthodox and that's unpopular with the public at large and helps Shas much more than it helps Likud.

He'd better hope he magically creates peace, otherwise how is he going to survive as Likud leader? How will Likud survive the next election?

Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.
529  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: February 19, 2013, 10:03:05 pm
Remember that Peretz left Labor because they wouldn't come out categorically against joining Netanyahu while Livni would.

That always a personal problem with Shelly rather than an ideological one.
530  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: February 19, 2013, 09:07:37 pm
Deal went through.

This is insane.

Why?

Everyone was expecting her to join the government for a while now.
531  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico:Rep. Steve Cohen tweet reveals secret daughter on: February 16, 2013, 07:40:37 am
It seems like a strange thing to do on a public twitter, but I don't see a story here.
532  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Iceland may ban internet porn on: February 16, 2013, 07:31:26 am
Terrible.

Quote
And two years ago, the nation's parliament banned strip clubs, saying they violate the rights of the women who work in them.

The opposite is true, it's banning the strip clubs that violate the rights of the women who work in them.
533  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Horsemeat scandal on: February 09, 2013, 05:46:01 pm
As far as I know, there's nothing worse about horse meat, so I really don't think there is much reason for such a huge fuss. If I found out I was getting horse meat I wouldn't be bothered.
534  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: February 05, 2013, 05:54:52 pm
Interesting, are you planning on doing any more of these maps?
535  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: February 04, 2013, 07:29:30 pm
Surprisingly, Turkey is accusing Israel of "state terrorism" for bombing Syria:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132317737493423.html

You mean "surprisingly", right?
That's what I wrote.

And it is surprising since Turkey has sent some artillery fire into Syria, and seem to want a military intervention. Yet they call Israel a sponsor of state terrorism for bombing them too...


Obviously this is politics, the current Turkish government hate Israel so they say these things. In the same way, Turkey calls what Israel does to the Palestinians genocide, even in cases that are minor compared to what the Turks do to the Kurds. That is just the way politics work, and it isn't even remotely surprising if you follow the news.
536  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: February 03, 2013, 06:03:53 pm
Surprisingly, Turkey is accusing Israel of "state terrorism" for bombing Syria:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132317737493423.html

You mean "surprisingly", right?
537  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: February 03, 2013, 08:38:39 am
Stability isn't necessarily a good thing, North Korea is currently a very stable hellhole. I actually think Libya has gotten better even though it has become less stable.
538  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 31, 2013, 09:52:43 am

So when will we know about cabinet posts and jazz like that?

Theoretically, the deadline for the formation of a new government is 20/3, but it will probably take less than that.

And here is the first post election poll from mako:

Yesh Atid - 27
Likud Beitenu- 25
JH-NU - 15
Labour - 12
Shas - 9
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 7
The Movement - 4
Hadash - 4
Raam-Taal - 2
Balad -2
Otzma- 2
Kadima - 2
Am Shalem - 2

If Lapid manages to maintain his popularity, the next elections could be interesting.
539  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 27, 2013, 02:45:58 pm
Thinking of doing another set of maps, but grouping parties into functional blocks or something like that. Thinking as much as 'where the votes came from' as much else, if that makes sense. Provisional...

Right - Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home, Otzma LeYisrael (34.2%, 43 seats)
Left - Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz (20.9%, 27 seats)
Centre - Yesh Atid, Kadima, Ale Yarok* (17.6%, 21 seats)
Haredim - Shas, UTJ, Am Shelam (15.1%, 18 seats)
Arab - UAL, Hadash, Balad (9.2%, 11 seats)

Comments/criticism welcome/probably needed.

*I guess? Could always drop them completely, of course.

Ale Yarok is fine in the sense that it is normal for parties without much of an opinion on left/right issues to be considered centre.

You could also add Eretz Hadasha to the Left and Koach Lehashpia to the Haredi.

Also, while I don't have a problem with this, Shelly and Livni would disagree, as they don't like being called left.
540  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 27, 2013, 09:06:52 am
Danny, do you know if Tzipi Hotovely supports civil marriage?

She is against, but isn't opposed to Israel's domestic partnership equivalent (which includes gays).
541  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 10:22:05 pm
Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.

I'm shocked Balad got .66% of those votes. Trollin'?

Double envelope is not only soldiers, it includes diplomats, hospital patients, and probably most important in this case, prisoners.
542  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 02:01:23 pm
Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.
543  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 06:09:36 am
Hey Danny, I had some hard accident last week so using my hands is a bit hard (this is why I made my lovely sister type this). Can you post a tel aviv only map divided to districts?

Hope you get better.

As for a map, just zoom in to this one.
544  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 04:14:37 am
My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Same place in 2009:

Likud: 24.5%
Kadima: 16.3%
Labour: 13.2%
National Union: 10.7%
Jewish Home: 8.7%
Meretz: 5.6%
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.1%
Shas: 4.8%
UTJ: 3.9%
Green Movement: 2%
545  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 25, 2013, 04:09:07 am
I don't pay too much attention to these reports as they are full of political spins.
546  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 07:15:28 pm
I don't know about the settlements, but I do know that amongst the double envelope votes mostly soldiers), Ale Yarok got 4%. They also get a high percent in certain specific rural places, like kadita for example where they got 18%.
547  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:27:48 pm
Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.
548  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 04:01:39 pm
Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.
549  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 03:55:36 pm
It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.
Did this turn out accurate?

Yes, Shuly Mualem from JH is in, and Taleb A-Sanaa from RAAM-TAAL is out.
550  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 24, 2013, 03:16:22 pm
Final turnout was 67.79%, up 2.5% overall and 3% amongst Arabs.


3,834,136 total votes cast, 41K spoiled votes and 270K for parties below the minimum threshold of 75,864, compared with just 104K in 2009.
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 ... 58


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines