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526  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 03, 2013, 06:47:20 pm
Jerusalem Post poll:

Likud Beitenu: 32
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 16
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2
527  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 03, 2013, 06:29:09 pm
Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians often don't keep their promises.
528  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 03, 2013, 12:32:06 pm
New polls.

knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 2

Yisrael Hayom:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 11
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Am Shalem: 2
529  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 03, 2013, 12:26:26 pm
Shelly made an announcement that she won't sit in Bibi's coalition, which caused Lapid and Livni to attack her. If Bibi is willing to keep the Haredim out, than I think a Likud-JH-Lapid-Livni coalition is very possible.
530  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 03, 2013, 12:02:53 pm
Shelly today announced she will either be PM or 'Natenyahu's most loyal opposition "

Recent poll reshet B:
Likud - 35
Labour - 18
JH+NU - 18
Shas - 8
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Livni - 6
Otzma Isr. - 6
Hadash - 4
Ra'sm - 4
Balad - 3

Yeah that's a geocartographia poll, their results tend to be very different than everyone else, and I usually try to avoid them.
531  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 02, 2013, 06:06:23 pm
Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

So are the odds that the coalition essentially doesn't change? LB/JH-NU/Shas/UTJ for a total of 65?

It's possible, but such a coalition would leave Bibi as one of the most left wing members of his own coalition, a situation Bibi usually tries to avoid. He will probably like to have it as leverage, so that he can go to the parties to his left and tell them that if they won't join him than he will just set up a right-religious coalition without them.
532  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 02, 2013, 08:57:11 am
Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2
533  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: January 01, 2013, 11:19:09 am
Walla [urlhttp://news.walla.co.il/elections/?w=/2780/2602368]poll[/url]:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 15
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 2
Kadima: 2

Profile of JH-NU voters:

Gender:

male 53%
female 47%

age:

18-29: 27.2%
30-49: 40.4%
50+: 32.4%

religion:

national religious: 52.9%
traditionalist: 24.2%
secular: 18.6%
haredi: 1.6%
no response: 2.8%


Also 71% of Yesh Atid and 69% of The Movement voters are secular.
534  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 02:32:21 pm
A hypothetical poll from mako in the case that Israel returned to a separate vote for PM.

Knesset:
Likud Beitenu: 23
JH-NU: 17
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
The Movement: 12
Shas: 11
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 3

PM:
Bibi: 37%
Livni: 18%
Bennet: 12%
Shelly: 12%
Lapid: 4%
Deri: 4%
Eldad: 4%
Mofaz: 3%
Galon: 1%
other: 5%
535  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 02:19:45 pm
1. What are main differences between Hatnuah, Yeash Atid and Kadima besides different party leaders? I understand only that Hatnuah is probably to the left of others on Palestinian issue.

This is the biggest difference, but Hatnuah is definitely to the left of those, and is also positioning itself to the left of Labour (in the very Israeli sense of the word).


2. Am Shalem is a split from right-wing and religious Shas. So why is it situated in centre on compass, on some issues even to the left of centrist parties? Is Am Shalem simply a moderate version of Shas?

Amsalem doesn't talk about left/right issues in this campaign, although in the past he was no less right wing than a Shas MK is expected to be. The parties single issue is opposing Shas and what it stands for on religious issues, and calling Shas a corrupt party and stooges for the Lithuanians (Litvishers).
536  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 01:16:18 pm

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.
you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.


I'm not sure in what way you are disagreeing with me here
Maybe with the "not very ideological" bit?

He should expand on the differences between them then, I admit that the Arab parties are those that I know the least about.
537  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 12:30:12 pm

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.
you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.


I'm not sure in what way you are disagreeing with me here, Hadash got 112K votes in the last election, 10-13K would be about 10%.
538  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 11:38:03 am
And I just read that Mitzna is now on board with Hatnua.  Facepalm.  Mitzna in a party lead by the woman that went around the world so vigorously defending Operation Cast Lead.  What has this world come to...

He came from the party which the had the minister of defence as its leader during cast lead, so I'm not sure this reaction is warranted.

But surely on that basis he would have left earlier anyway? Bizarre defection.

You misunderstood, As far as I know Mitzna wasn't opposed to cast lead (if he did, he couldn't have made much of a fuss about it). It's just that Mitzna's reasoning for the defection is from the left, saying that Labour has stopped talking about peace.
539  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 09:43:19 am
Balad and Hadash have identical or very close positions on nearly all issues. For what reasons Arab voters support Hadash? Two parties have the same ideology (socialism, secularism) but Balad is obviously preferable for Arabs due to its more clear pro-Palestinian stance.

I'm pretty sure more Hadash voters are Jews than Muslims, though they're the only party with significant cross-community support, thus being labeled as an Arab party. They are also the party for those Muslims who see cooperation with (pro-peace) Jews as essential--basically, less radical, for voters who don't harbor a real hatred of Israel as a concept.

Anyway, I landed about equidistant from Ta'al, Labor and Hatnu'a.

About 90% of Hadash voters are are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.
540  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 31, 2012, 05:50:40 am
And I just read that Mitzna is now on board with Hatnua.  Facepalm.  Mitzna in a party lead by the woman that went around the world so vigorously defending Operation Cast Lead.  What has this world come to...

He came from the party which the had the minister of defence as its leader during cast lead, so I'm not sure this reaction is warranted.
541  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 30, 2012, 11:47:22 am
And here is an election compass if you want to know whee you stand compared to the different parties, I came closest to the Likud.
542  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 30, 2012, 11:02:45 am
New poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 10
The Movement: 8
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 2
543  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 28, 2012, 03:40:02 pm
I was under the impression Balad has a vaguely Ba'athist, "socialist Arab unity" ideology affiliated with the Assad regime...

Arab parties are not my expertise but  that is my understanding. I don't know if this is still their view, but here is a video of their previous leader, Azmi Bishara calling the "Palestinian People" a colonialist invention, and that Palestine is southern greater Syria.
544  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 28, 2012, 11:53:24 am
Interesting chart for those who are not so familiar with Israeli parties (like me):



It's interesting but I wouldn't really agree with everything there.

For instance, I don't see why The Movement (Hatnuah) is more secular than Yesh Atid or more right wing than Labour (Peretz defected from Labour to The Movement because Labour wasn't talking enough about peace). Also the entire campaign of Am Shalem is attacking Shas (and even Likud) from a more "secular" standpoint. Also The Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) is definitely more right wing than Likud, certainly as long as Bibi is in charge, even though some of the Likud's members are similar to the Jewish home's opinions.
545  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 27, 2012, 05:23:16 am
Rehet Bet poll:


Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 15
Shas: 13
The Movement: 11
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
546  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 26, 2012, 01:24:56 am
New poll from walla:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 15
The Movement: 11
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
547  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 25, 2012, 09:32:10 am
Cartoon faces are quite normal in Israel, as for the rest of the poll:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 13
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

Which politician do you believe the most?


Bibi: 18%
Bennet: 14%
Livni: 10%
Deri: 9%
Shelly: 9%
Lapid: 7%
Lieberman: 5%
None of them: 22%

which politician cares the most about you and your problems?

Shelly: 17%
Bibi: 9%
Deri: 9%
Lapid: 7%
Bennet: 7%
Livni: 5%
Lieberman: 4%
None of them: 33%

Who do you trust on security issues?

Bibi: 38%
Bennet: 9%
Livni: 8%
Shelly: 4%


Who do you trust on economic issues?

Bibi: 37%
Shelly: 14%
Livni: 6%
Bennet: 4%
548  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 24, 2012, 03:34:37 pm
New poll from mako:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Meretz: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 2
Am Shalem: 2
549  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Upstate NY swing D? on: December 23, 2012, 01:32:07 pm
Perhaps...

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.

New England and the Pacific Northwest had already given up on moderate Republicans.

If John Kerry vacates his Senate seat in Massachusetts, moderate Republican Scott Brown is said to be a frontrunner for the spot.

You mean the guy who just lost a Massachusetts senate race?
We will see about that.
550  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 21, 2012, 05:37:59 am
There seems to be a ridiculous amount of party switching and floor-crossing in Israel - more than in just about any other country i know of. I usually associate constant party switching with newly democratized countries in the developing world where there is no mature political culture and parties tend to be just temporary "flags of convenience"

Isn't there any loyalty in Israel? Doesn't anyone believe in anything?

This is because of the Israeli electoral system which makes it particularly convenient to do so. Ideological people also split and merge.
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