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526  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Upstate NY swing D? on: December 23, 2012, 01:32:07 pm
Perhaps...

Also, areas that have historically elected moderate Republicans, are moving against today's GOP. Without Sandy, NYC/NJ would still have been more Democratic than on paper for a Mitt Romney candidacy.

New England and the Pacific Northwest had already given up on moderate Republicans.

If John Kerry vacates his Senate seat in Massachusetts, moderate Republican Scott Brown is said to be a frontrunner for the spot.

You mean the guy who just lost a Massachusetts senate race?
We will see about that.
527  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 21, 2012, 05:37:59 am
There seems to be a ridiculous amount of party switching and floor-crossing in Israel - more than in just about any other country i know of. I usually associate constant party switching with newly democratized countries in the developing world where there is no mature political culture and parties tend to be just temporary "flags of convenience"

Isn't there any loyalty in Israel? Doesn't anyone believe in anything?

This is because of the Israeli electoral system which makes it particularly convenient to do so. Ideological people also split and merge.
528  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 21, 2012, 05:32:59 am
New poll from Ma'ariv:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 11
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2
-------election threshold------
Am Shalem: 1
Kadima: 1

They also had a profile of voters for right wing parties, not including the Haredi (I.E Likud, JH-NU and Otzma):


Religion: secular 54%, traditionalist 27%, national religious 11%, national haredi or haredi 8%.

Age: 18-30 29%, 31-64 55%, 65+ 16%.

Gender: female 58%, male 42%.

Do you support a demilitarized Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria?
66% against
11% support
23% other/dk

Do you support Israeli construction between Jerusalem and Ma'ale Adumim (E1)?
9% against
51% support
40% other/dk

Do you support giving Jews te right to pray at the temple mount?
7% against
71% support
22% other/dk

Do you support higher taxes on the rich?
49% against
41% support
10% other/dk

Should the high court cancel laws of the knesset if it is necessary?
38% against
41% support
21% other/dk

If you could add class time in schools, which subject would you add?
51% science
31% Judaism
18% other/dk
529  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 20, 2012, 06:46:48 am
A funny event today in the knesset. Because of the resignation of Amir Peretz from the knesset, the next person on Labour's list was sworn in. This person happenned to be Yoram Marziano, a Labour MK until 2009. But in a twist, Marziano used his swearing in to announce his resignation from the party and support for Bibi in the elections.
530  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 18, 2012, 03:59:09 pm
New poll from channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 3
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2
Am Shalem: 2

The site also continues the annoying Israeli tradition of providing little tidbits from the internals but not a file with all of the internals like you get in the US.

what they do mention is about JH-NU:
1) A third of their voters define themselves as Secular or traditionalist.
2) Two thirds of their voters are under age 40.
3) Amongst voters under age 30, they are the biggest party.

Also, a third of Yesh Atid voters consider themselves right wing.
531  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 17, 2012, 11:31:45 am
Another poll amongst "Russians" (previous poll from a week ago in brackets):

Likud Beitenu: 70% (68%)
The Movement: 8% (9%)
JH-NU: 7% (4%)
Labour: 6% (4%)
The Israelis: 4% (0%)
Kadima: 4% (4%)
Yesh Atid: 1% (4%)

everyone else with 0%.
532  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 17, 2012, 08:13:40 am
Polling must show the "left" as a brand as being toxic, as only Meretz and Hadash call themselves that. Shelly gave an interview today in which she said that "Labour is not a left wing party and never has been a left wing party... Yitzhak Rabin was a hawk in his views." Livni and Lapid call their parties centre.
533  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 16, 2012, 05:26:28 pm
Why such divergent figures for JH-NU from the various polling outfits?

They seem to currently be on an upwards trajectory, most polls lately have given them 11-12, so this latest poll is either an outlier or it is showing further gains.
534  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Feinstein to Introduce Assault Weapons Ban on First Day of Congress. on: December 16, 2012, 04:21:01 pm

I do not believe the state should hold a monopoly on firearms. States are not immune from the possibility of committing evil acts against people within them, and for that reason the people should have a means of defending themselves should the need arise. But then again, what am I saying, states would never in a million years cause harm to their own people, I am just being crazy.


Using your gun against the government is one of the surest ways of getting yourself killed without defending anything.
535  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 16, 2012, 10:29:56 am
Poll from Globes:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 16
Yesh Atid: 12
Shas: 10
The Movement: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 6
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
536  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 14, 2012, 06:18:48 pm

Is this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaYisraelim) a different party with the same name, or is it the same thing? 'Doron' doesn't sound like a Russian immigrant's name, but perhaps it was Hebraized. In any case, the introduction of constituency seats is something I personally staunchly support. First reaction is quite positive.

As far as I can tell, the party that ran in 2009 effectively ceased to exist after their failure.

If you want to start a new party in Israel you have two choices:
1) Register as a new party for which you need 100 signatures and pay 42,182NIS, an example of this in the current election is Yesh Atid.
2) Take over a different party that has already registered previously, with the former parties consent, an example of this in the current election is The Movement which took over Hetz, a Shinui splinter party.

This is the case of the second choice, where the new Russian people took over the unrelated party you found out about. Since you know Russian, you can find more about the party here.
537  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 14, 2012, 04:31:52 pm
Big news with Lieberman resigning after the decision to indict him on corruption related  charges.

The Israelis - 2
I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

A new Russian immigrant party.
Lieberman in no way specified that he is not running in this election, he simply quit his job as MoFA

That is why I said resigned, we don't yet know if he will be continuing in politics after the next election.
538  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 14, 2012, 03:52:11 pm
Big news with Lieberman resigning after the decision to indict him on corruption related charges.

The Israelis - 2
I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

A new Russian immigrant party.
539  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: White Britons no longer a majority in London on: December 14, 2012, 08:37:02 am
I see Christianity went from 71.6% in 2001 to 59.3% in 2011. At this rate, less than half the population will be Christian by the time of the next census.
540  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama: We will not go after marijuana users in states that legalized it. on: December 14, 2012, 08:00:34 am
makes sense.
541  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Shelby County, TN Presidential Results - Precinct Map on: December 14, 2012, 07:54:54 am
So what happens if you refuse to cut your grass... or at least keep it at the specified length? Would you get fined? and then if you refuse to pay the fines, get arrested? lololol
All towns around here have ordinances regarding grass. It's a property maintenance issue and a public health issue as wildly overgrown grass encourages snakes and rodents and other nasty critters. Germantown, however, takes it to an extreme and will cite you for just slightly overgrown grass. It's similar to a parking ticket. Small fine at first with increasingly penalties for serial noncompliance. Most neighborhoods in Germantown also have active neighborhood associations, each with their own rules. Common no-nos at that level include things that are perceived to hurt property values like renting your home or putting up a chain link fence around your yard. The neighborhood associations can go to court and get a lien against your property if you refuse to follow the rules. They also have rather pricy dues, which must be paid each year above the county and municipal property taxes. Some, but not all, will also have a neighborhood clubhouse, pool, tennis court, gym etc. that is part of the package, but you must join the association and follow the rules if you own a property in the neighborhood. Did I mention that these people are 100% dyed in the wool "small gov't" Republicans?

Wow I hear complaints of "big government" over silly things, but this really sounds like big government in action. No one cares when anyone in my house cuts the grass, and it's none of their business anyway.
542  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: December 13, 2012, 02:23:58 pm
Wee question...as I'm not American I don't understand how they can call an election on election day when actually there were millions of votes uncounted, anyone cares to elaborate?

Statistics
That's hardly enough to call an election when you only counted 60% of the votes

It is, possibly a lot less than that actually, depending on how close the election is and where the remaining votes are from.
543  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 13, 2012, 12:46:51 pm
New polls:

Yisrael Hayom:


Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 19
Shas: 12
JH-NU: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

Kol Israel:


Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 10
Shas: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
Balad: 4
Hadash: 4
Am Shalem: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3

Knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 9
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Balad: 2
Am Shalem: 2
544  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Uruguay House Approves Gay Marriage Bill; even conservatives voted for it on: December 13, 2012, 12:31:16 pm
Good news.
545  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 12, 2012, 11:31:11 am
It's interesting that Livni is viewed as a likelier winner than Yachimovich...I really think with a good campaign Hatnuah could place second, ahead of Labour.

I don't think the difference between 6% to 4% is particularly meaningful.
546  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: December 11, 2012, 04:31:35 pm

Again, Blacks are more supportive of gay marriage than Whites, just like in GA.

I wonder how this would look like in non-southern states.
547  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: December 11, 2012, 02:40:21 pm
South Carolina (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.

I doubt it, people who say they support civil unions but not marriage usually vote against civil unions when it comes up.
548  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Would you go to a church if it was giving out free pot to first time visitors? on: December 10, 2012, 02:49:04 pm
No. I don't go to church, pray or smoke pot. So there is no incentive at all for me in this.
549  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 10, 2012, 09:50:29 am
Poll from Haaretz:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 17
Shas: 12
JH-NU: 11
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 6
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Meretz: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2

who do you think is more suitable to be PM?

Bibi: 64%
Livni: 24%
Don't know: 12%
---------------------
Bibi: 64%
Shelly: 17%
Don't know: 19%

Who do you think will be the next PM:

Bibi: 81%
Livni: 6%
Shelly: 4%
Don't know: 9%
550  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election 2013 on: December 10, 2012, 09:36:03 am
Poll amongst "Russians" only:

Likud Beitenu: 68%
The Movement: 9%
Labour, Kadima, Yesh Atid, Jewish Home: 4%
Shas: 3%
Meretz: 2%
UTJ: 1%
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