More Meretz than I'd have guessed.

Yes, but Meretz only wins little villages (this applies to the whole country).

[Southern Israel]

Southern Israel

Map1:


Map 2 continues directly to the south of the first (I had to split it since it went over 2,500 pixels combined):



Note that there are some Bedouins who live in unrecognized villages or as nomads who vote heavily for the UAL-TAAL but don't show up in this map.

"Although we've traditionally dedicated 97 percent of our resources to other important services such as contraception distribution, cancer screening, and STD testing, this new complex allows us to devote our full attention to what has always been our true passion: abortion," said Richards, standing under a banner emblazoned with Planned Parenthood's new slogan, "No Life Is Sacred." "And since Congress voted to retain our federal funding, it's going to be that much easier for us to maximize the number of tiny, beating hearts we stop every day."

"The Abortionplex's high-tech machinery is capable of terminating one pregnancy every three seconds," Richards added. "That's almost a million abortions every month. We're so thrilled!"

I really hope he never bothered to read the article, because it would be really sad for anyone to read the above part without realizing it was satire.

They'd much rather do it on their own.

Not really, they seem to be quite supportive of foreign intervention.
But they are not going to get it, so they will have to do it alone.

Big guns aren't as useful when the people that are supposed to operate them keep defecting.

In 2001, Barak's 'grand alliance' collapsed, and he was replaced by the leader of Likud, Ariel Sharon. Sharon formed a 'national unity government' with Barak's Labor-Meimad, Shas, the Centre Party, the National Religious Party, United Torah Judaism, Yisrael BaAliyah, and the National Union -- this gigantic creation managed to survive to 2003, and had an astounding total of 102 members; indeed, Meretz leader Yossi Sarid became Leader of the Opposition.

So, before the next election, the parties were organized like this:
Labor-Meimad (Ehud Barak) 47
Likud (Ariel Sharon) 27
Shas (Aryeh Deri) 20
Meretz (Yossi Sarid) 7
Shinui (Tommy Lapid) 3
Gesher (David Levy) 3
National Religious Party (Yitzhak Levy) 2
United Torah Judaism (Meir Porush) 2
Democratic Choice (Roman Bronfman) 2
National Union (Rehavam Ze'evi) 2
Centre Party (Yitzhak Mordechai) 1
Yisrael BaAliyah (Natan Sharansky) 1
United Arab List (Abdulmalik Dehamshe) 1
Hadash (Mohammad Barakeh) 1
Arab National Party (Muhamad Kanan) 1

Barak was replaced in a prime-minister only election in which he run and lost, after which he resigned and was replaced by Binyamin Ben Eliezer, who, in turn lost a year later in internal primaries to Amram Mitzna. Amram Mitzna lasted even less time at half a year, but that would be under the next update.

Final results:
63,150 total votes (50.4%)
Netanyahu: 77%
Feiglin: 23%
Feiglin won most the settlements, Netanyahu won (almost) everywhere else.

Are there regular leadership elections for the Likud Party or was Netanyahu challenged in this case?

I'm not sure if I understand what you mean. This was the leadership elections.

The question was whether party leaders in Israel (or at least in Likud) need to be reelected at regular intervals, as in Germany; or only when there is a challenge, as in Westminster systems.

Ninja'd by a Belgian.

Theoretically the Primary elections should happen every 4 years, 3 months before the general elections. In practice the general elections rarely happen at regular intervals anyway so that Likud has to scramble to have a quick primary so they could have a candidate before the general elections. Bibi prefers not to go through a primary elections just before a general election, so, since he knew he would win anyway, he called for an early election to get it over with (he did the same in 2007). In any case a challenger can't call for elections, so unless the party leader wants them, they will be in regular intervals.

Is this Feiglin guy more in line with Yisrael Betainu?

Not really, Feiglin is religious and is closer to Jewish Home and and National Union than Yisrael Beitenu, he just thinks that religious people should make their difference within a big party like Likud rather than scatter in small parties.

Are there regular leadership elections for the Likud Party or was Netanyahu challenged in this case?

I'm not sure if I understand what you mean. This was the leadership elections.

elections were yesterday, turnout was 48% of 125,000 eligible voters.
with almost all the votes counted (final results should be tonight):
Netanyahu: 74%
Feiglin: 24%
Basically the same as last elections.

If the results were like this poll, there would be no doubt that Likud would head the next government. In theory, a group of smaller parties could join together and put themselves ahead. But they would need to have a majority, and only Likud would be able to get this in this scenario, since right wing parties have a majority.

New poll:

Likud: 30
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Hadash: 4
Raam Taal: 3
Balad: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3

Excellent Vosem. Maybe when this is all done Danny could draw up a constituency map?

Maybe, but only once I'm done with the real world maps which I plan on getting back to once I'm finished with some college tests.

And yeah, great work Vosem.

United Religious Front (no clear leader - I think Moshe Unna was 1st on list) 10

Actually Yehuda Leib Maimon was number 1 on the list, although with the way the party was structured, it really had 4 different leaders

I understand it was really four different parties merging in one list, but Wikipedia is rather unhelpful in this regard. I'll put Maimon as the leader, if only because someone has to be leader. Thank you very much for your help!...and this'll probably be it for me today, I'll pick up again later.

Yes, the Hebrew wikipedia was more helpful in this regard.

United Religious Front (no clear leader - I think Moshe Unna was 1st on list) 10

Actually Yehuda Leib Maimon was number 1 on the list, although with the way the party was structured, it really had 4 different leaders

A good basis (but it's JUST a basis) for calculating FPTP is to square the number then turn it into seats.

While this might work well between the big parties (Likud, Labour, and lately Kadima), it would not amongst the other parties as FPTP favours parties with a concentrated majority in certain areas that are large enough for a district, and this would cause some parties votes to hold up better others. For instance, Meretz would be wiped out while UTJ would be fine.

Then who would win? Your own maps show their strength?

UTJ would have 1 or 2 depending on the districts and whether non-haredi would coalesce around a single candidate the way they do in local Jerusalem elections (which is more of a problem to do than in national elections).
2-3 Arab seats where the fight will be between the Arab parties.
Probably another 3 marginal Likud-Yisrael Beitenu seats, 1 in the north and s in the south.
and then a bunch of seats for whomever comes out on top amongst the left-centre parties in the centre and possibly another one based in Haifa. probably another 3-6 seats.
The rest would go to Likud.

“It’s stereotyping for sure and without a doubt; I can’t emphasize enough, it’s discriminatory.”

All the app does is map high crime areas, by saying that this is stereotyping she is the one doing the stereotyping by equating crime with minorities.

This is why I say that 20 FPTP seats would do wonders. Imagine this:


Likud   -   21   -   15   -   36
Y.Beit   -   14   -      -   14
Lab   -   11   -      -   11
Kad   -   11   -   2   -   13
Lapid   -   6   -      -   6
Shas   -   6   -   3   -   9
UTJ   -   5   -      -   5
NatU   -   4   -      -   4
JewH   -   3   -      -   3
Ra-Ta   -   3   -      -   3
Had   -   3   -      -   3
Bal   -   3   -      -   3
Deri   -   3   -      -   3
Meretz   -   3   -      -   3
Indp   -   2   -      -   2
RabHai   -   2   -      -   2

I seriously doubt Likud take 15 of 20 FPTP seats, unless they gerrymander very smartly for themselves I don't think they will take more than half the seats, so it woudn't make that much of a difference.

Lapid has closed the door on the possibility of his joining Kadima by posting on Facebook that Kadima is a party of cynical politicians that no one knows what they believe in that were kicked out of their former parties, and there is no chance that he will join them.

New poll conducted yesterday (18/1/12):

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 26
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 7
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 15
Kadima: 9
Lapid: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

*Haim Amsalem is a current knesset member who was elected in the last elections as part of shas, but took views that are much more religiously moderate than his party. he ended up leaving Shas to found his own party which will be right wing on the left right axis but more religiously moderate than Shas.

The elections for the next leader of the party will be held on January 31 and will be between Netanyahu and Moshe Feiglin.

previous elections:
2005 (the post Sharon leaving elections):
Netanyahu: 44%
Silvan Shalom: 33%
Feiglin: 12%
Katz: 9%

2007
Netanyahu: 72.8%
Feiglin: 23.4%
Danny Danon:3.5%

Netanyahu should easily win this as the incumbent.

His only rival Moshe Feiglin english website who is religious and lives in a settlement and to the right of Bibi and is attacking Bibi for being a left wing plant in the Likud. His goal in this election is to increase his share of the vote from his 2007, election and to prove that he has a lot of supporters in the party, so that Likud Knesset members will have to take him and his supporters seriously and cater to their interests so that they will vote for them to be placed high up on the Likud list for the next election.

Is it sheer coincidence that those who clamor loudest for war don't ever have to worry about actually fighting in it?  

Of course not, just like it is not a coincidence that those who clamour the loudest against the war also don't have to worry about actually fighting in it. It's because soldiers are not supposed to express their opinions publicly, and members of parliament and ministers obviously are not going to be on the front lines.

Having said that, Moshe Ya'alon has seen lots of combat in his past (not that he was calling for war with Iran in this article anyway).

Yes, not starting an unprovoked war against Iran is very helpful to Obama's reelection chances. It's also something any not insane person would do.

That's a straw man, He didn't say that the US should invade Iran, he called for sanctions.