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July 07, 2015, 12:39:09 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT: Bernie Sanders has a "non-white problem" on: July 06, 2015, 01:21:15 am
And there's nothing he can do about the fact that living out his public career in the great state of Vermont has not prepared him for addressing the needs, interests, predilections, or concerns of most minorities in any really knowledgeable way.

Yes.  I actually posted this article earlier in the thread "How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge?"  David Axelrod notes:

Quote
“There’s no doubt she understands coalition politics and she is burnishing her coalition,” Mr. Axelrod said of Mrs. Clinton. “You have to have a track record and some roots in these communities, and she does.”

Quote
“She’s talking about the issues we care about,” said Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state representative who is black and is supporting Mrs. Clinton. “Whether it’s voting rights or police reform, Hillary is attacking them head-on.”

Clinton is no doubt aware of her experience and connections appealing to black, Latino and Asian voters and Sanders weakness in those areas.  Sanders is just uncomfortable and inexperienced at making identity politics appeals.  In minority political circles he's virtually unknown.  There's nothing wrong with that and much to admire about his run.  And the fact he's far ahead of O'Malley is notable.  But we should have no illusions about the limitations of his candidacy.  All Democrats know what happens when we fail to turn out minority voters.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge? on: July 03, 2015, 02:58:52 pm
There's always going to be an element of the base which is dissatisfied with Clinton and the question is which candidate, if any, could coalesce that vote.  It looks like that is Sanders.  His rise is probably more harmful to the other potential rivals, like O'Malley, than Hillary.  And if the Sanders challenge moves Clinton to the left somewhat that's a good thing as far as I'm concerned.  

But Sanders seems uncomfortable and not very good at making identity politics appeals.  That's not helpful when you represent a state which is 95% white.  Hillary is an old pro at this, has been working the black, Latino and Asian political scene for a long time and has made many connections there.  Almost no one in those communities knows who Sanders is.  Hillary also represented New York, an extremely diverse state and through her work as Secretary of State is very familiar with many different cultures.  And obviously there is a natural bridge between her and women voters which isn't there for Sanders.  The Democratic Party is a coalition party and unless you can appeal to the different factions you are going to fail.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/us/politics/bernie-sanders-lags-hillary-clinton-in-introducing-himself-to-black-voters.html?_r=0

http://www.latimes.com/nation/immigration/la-na-democrats-latinos-20150620-story.html#page=1
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kirk: Lndsey Graham is a "bro with no ho" on: June 13, 2015, 05:19:38 pm
Maybe that's because Lindsey needs some bromo love, Mark.  Why don't you give it to him.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Graham promises "rotating First Lady" on: June 10, 2015, 09:06:18 pm
I hear Aaron Schock is available.  He's a good looking guy and a great interior decorator.

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Hillary differ from Bill? on: May 25, 2015, 02:33:23 am
Bill Clinton was an ardent free-trader.  While it would be wrong to say Hillary is protectionist, her past record on the issue is mixed.  Most likely she would be open to persuasion from both sides.

Her recent stances on police/criminal justice reform and same-sex marriage are a far cry from Bill Clinton's presidency and issues where certain parts of the base will like her much better.

Bill Clinton (and Obama) were poor at enforcing discipline when Democrats in Congress voted against something of key importance to the White House.  There were no consequences.  In a Hillary White House I believe there would be consequences.  She also has absolutely no hesitation to cut down political enemies.

She has an iron will and an ability to determinedly push forward when the going gets tough.  Bill tended to get unfocused and discouraged in the face of adversity.

She lacks Bill's flexibility and ability to quickly adapt to changing circumstances.  There were several reasons why Hillarycare flopped in 1994 and this was one of them.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R) on: May 05, 2015, 09:02:52 pm
Wisconsin is well on track to send two of the most liberal Democrats to the Senate like they belong!

Having Baldwin and Feingold as the two senators from WI would be beautiful (and make up for the horribleness of the Senate situation in Iowa, another swing state).
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 08:09:18 pm
We've been here before.  When the Supreme Court struck down interracial marriage bans as unconstitutional in 1967, some public officials insisted they would continue to support such bans.  Even decades later, some still thought such marriages should be illegal.  But the bans were wrong then just as the bans on same-sex marriage are wrong now.  The "slippery slope" argument was used against interracial marriage.  And so was a version of the procreation argument  -- that "mongrel" children born from such unions would be unnatural and freakish.  People didn't want interracial couples to marry because they might procreate.  Today they don't want LGBT to marry because they cannot procreate together.  Stupid.



8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anti-Clinton hit piece in National Journal jumps the shark hard on: April 28, 2015, 12:56:16 am
Josh Kraushaar is a right-wing writer.  His stuff is sometimes worth reading to get a sense of internal Republican politics, but everything he writes about Democrats is hackish partisan noise.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly will Republicans run on? on: April 26, 2015, 10:36:42 pm
Obama is an evil communist from Kenya, Hillary is a corrupt communist from Lesbia, they are weakening America from within.  White Christians are threatened by evil minorities and evil homosexuals.  We are sliding toward Sodom and Gomorrah.  Benghazi.  Obamacare evil.  STOP THE MARXIST REVOLUTION.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? Round 2 on: April 23, 2015, 07:17:54 pm
Conventional wisdom holds that the first rule of picking a running mate is "due no harm."  Kaine would I think be the most anodyne possible pick.  Obviously, the fact he is a senator and former governor from a key swing state doesn't hurt.  And having served as a lieutenant governor as well, he may be more comfortable with being No. 2 than some other possible choices.  Since McAuliffe would appoint Kaine's successor there is no trouble there either.  In some ways, the choice would not be too different from Obama's selection of Biden.

However, another piece of conventional wisdom is that it would be a good idea for Clinton to groom the next generation.  If she is intent on pushing the Democratic Party's demographic edge to the max, a Clinton/Castro ticket presses upon almost all the salient points.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/09/julian-castro-is-in-vp-training-camp.html



11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Well, your opinion of Hillary's video? on: April 12, 2015, 04:20:06 pm
She understands what the various elements of her base are and equal opportunity will be a core theme of her campaign.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 10, 2014, 11:30:34 pm
IA and CO (Obama states) plus AK (As Begich has the superior ground game).
13  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 10, 2014, 04:11:20 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  

Yes. Next question...

It will be highly amusing if you wind up backtracking like you did on North Carolina.
14  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: POS: Hagan leads...in Tillis internal on: October 10, 2014, 04:08:43 am

15  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 08, 2014, 03:58:47 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  I wonder who is doing better in that race these days ...
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: October 08, 2014, 03:43:08 am

Am I the only one who finds this soundbite incredibly sexist and offensive?
Especially coming from (I assume) a white guy.

Hopefully this incident will simply work in favor of Udall.  Suburban women are the key swing demographic in this state.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most likely CO/KS result on: October 08, 2014, 01:57:05 am
Udall wins, Roberts loses.

I would say the tighter question is between Roberts and the open seat in Iowa. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa? on: September 27, 2014, 02:08:12 pm
Braley.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 26, 2014, 01:29:08 am
One other name I might throw out there is Martin O'Malley.  If he does in fact run for President, look for Clinton to shrewdly assess how he handles the white heat of a national race and the media vetting process.  If he shows strong candidate skills, no big skeletons emerge and he doesn't go too negative on her, he might very well get serious consideration.  He's compiled a considerable record as governor of Maryland and the base will like him. 
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 03:18:33 am
If Gillibrand were selected I would assume Clinton would run as a Washington D.C. resident, as she does maintain a home there.  This issue has come up before.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122289
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 01:48:05 am
My guess is that Clinton will put a high value on executive and/or legislative accomplishment.

I would agree with the consensus here that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are the two obvious choices.  They would be relatively safe picks and Clinton is known for caution.  Both are former governors/current senators of a key swing state.  And Gov. Terry McAuliffe would appoint a successor in the Senate so no trouble there.  Warner has stronger political standing in Virginia but also carries more political baggage than Kaine.

My problem with a Sherrod Brown pick, although I like him a great deal, is that Gov. Kasich is likely to win reelection this November and would appoint his successor. 

If Clinton is willing to take a risk (doubtful) then I would say the best choices would be either Julian Castro or Kirsten Gillibrand.  Gillibrand has developed a solid record in the Senate, has gotten some media buzz and I suspect she would love to run nationally.  Clinton places a high value on loyalty and Gillibrand has been loyal from the start (she cut her teeth in politics working on Hillary's 2000 Senate campaign).  Her work for women's rights would reinforce Clinton's message, similar to what Bill did with Al Gore in '92.

I'm less familiar with Castro's record.  From what I've seen he has huge potential and the demographic appeal is obvious.  But I'm not sure he'll have had enough time to develop his credentials.




22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I don't understand the Jim Webb potential candidacy on: September 24, 2014, 09:41:07 pm
I don't understand it either.  He quit after one term and reportedly hated/was terrible at retail politics.  Has he somehow picked up a taste for retail politics since he retired?  Otherwise Iowa and New Hampshire will go badly. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pat Roberts: Our country is headed for national socialism on: September 23, 2014, 10:36:57 pm
Quote
That's not right. Changing the culture, changing what we're all about.

I've seen this dog whistle countless times before from right-wing politicians.  I think many fellow people of color and LGBT recognize it.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Arkansas? on: September 23, 2014, 08:36:30 pm
Cotton.
25  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 on: September 19, 2014, 02:09:39 am
538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

Quote
We should be wary of these latest Quinnipiac surveys. Not only are the results the most Republican-friendly of the year in either state, but Quinnipiac’s polls have previously been too pro-Republican at this point in midterm elections. Its likely voter polls in 2010 had Republican Tom Foley up by 9 percentage points in the Connecticut gubernatorial race; he lost by a point. Quinnipiac had Democrat Andrew Cuomo up by just 6 points in the New York gubernatorial race; he won by 29 points. It had Republican John Kasich up by 17 points in the Ohio gubernatorial race; he won by just 2 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.


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