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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Final prediction: Which state/district will be the closest? on: November 07, 2016, 02:12:32 am
Ohio.  It is the one state where I have no confidence in my prediction either way.

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of Hillary's policy proposals would be most popular? And which do you like on: November 06, 2016, 10:00:25 pm
Which of Hillary's policy proposals...
1. would be most popular?
2. do you personally like the most?


-paid family/medical leave

-higher minimum wage

-more affordable college

-more affordable childcare

-more affordable prescription drugs

-more investment in mental health, substance abuse, Alzheimer's

-public option for healthcare insurance

-strengthen national and international service, like AmeriCorps and PeaceCorps

-modernize infrastructure (not only transportation, also: electric grid, water, schools, etc.)

-criminal justice reform

-immigration reform
 
-ending tax loopholes for the rich, impose risk fees on banks

-improve social security
 
-more clean energy
 
-better gun safety laws
 
-repairing the Voting Rights Act, more voting reform like universal registration
 
-more funding for schools, universal PreK, more computer science
 
-antidiscrimination laws to protect gay people

I like all of these but I am in the Democratic base.  I would say her infrastructure plan has the biggest potential to get support across the political spectrum.  This really isn't a partisan issue and everyone can benefit.  However, everyone wants the projects in their district to be at the top of the list (lol) and there will likely be strong partisan disagreement on the size and finance of the infrastructure plan.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Many Obama states will Trump Carry? on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:15 pm
Iowa and Trump has a 50/50 shot at Ohio.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The FBI is out of control on: November 06, 2016, 05:42:53 am
Trump is not under CRIMINAL investigation.

He's been civilly sued loads of times.  That's a fact of life for people in business in our litigious society.  He's not my idea of a role model, but all the actions against him are CIVIL actions, whereas Hillary's FBI investigation was a CRIMINAL investigation.

If we're going to attach sexual misdeeds to Donald Trump without the proof of a verdict, then, by all means, let's be honest about that.  But let's oblige Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Willey in the same manner and attach similar blame to Bill Clinton.  And let's hold Hillary to the standards of her own speeches, by believing their accounts and having a credible investigation.  Oh, and let's also hold Hillary to her own standards for trashing Bill's alleged victims for her own career purposes.

Bill Clinton isn't running for president.  He also wasn't the one caught on tape bragging about grabbing women in the pu$$y.  Trump brags about grabbing women's p*$$ies and then claims the women accusing him are liars.  And the Republican Party claims to be the party of "moral values."  LOL!
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The FBI is out of control on: November 05, 2016, 05:25:06 pm
Quote
Fox News anchor Bret Baier apologized on air Friday for his report that Hillary Clinton faces a "likely" indictment as the result of a  federal investigation into the Clinton Foundation and for his report that Clinton's private email server had been hacked by five foreign intelligence agencies.

Both of Baier's mistaken reports were made Wednesday night in an appearance with Fox News Channel's Brit Hume. At the time, Baier said the information was based on "two separate sources with intimate knowledge of the FBI investigations into the Clinton emails and the Clinton Foundation."

Baier "clarified" his reporting Friday on the Fox News show Happening Now, hosted by Jon Scott.

"On the hacking of Clinton's private, unsecured server: While multiple sources believe and are operating under the working assumption that the server has been hacked, and some had specific quotes to that belief, there are to this day no digital fingerprints of such breaches," Baier said Friday on the Fox News show Happening Now, hosted by Jon Scott.

Baier admitted the report was based on a single, anonymous source.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/04/fox-news-apologizes-clinton-report/93300254/

So conservatives are just fine with the FBI leaking lies right before an election to manipulate the election?  

Perhaps someday in the future the FBI or Justice Department will start leaking negative information about investigations into Republican candidates right before an election.  How much will you like it then?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The FBI is out of control on: November 05, 2016, 05:18:25 pm
Rudy Giuliani is the shadow head of the FBI

Giuliani on Fox and Friends:
Quote
Did I hear about it? Darn right I heard about it. I can't even repeat the language I heard from the former FBI agents.

Giuliani later that day on CNN:
Quote
"In my case, it's real simple: I've talked to no FBI agent, I've talked to no Justice Department official. I have no idea about who's leaking information."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/rudy-giuliani-hillary-clinton-email-fbi/index.html

lol, such a liar
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win Nevada or Wisconsin? on: November 05, 2016, 06:59:19 am
Trump will not win either state.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The FBI is out of control on: November 05, 2016, 04:39:39 am
Quote
IT WAS disruptive enough that James B. Comey, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, injected last-minute uncertainty into the presidential campaign by announcing discovery of additional emails in the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private server. Mr. Comey’s explanation for the disclosure, that he needed to keep Congress informed, was dubious, and the damaging impact, casting a new shadow over Ms. Clinton, was tangible. In the days since, the FBI’s behavior has grown even more questionable. FBI sources have fanned new doubts about Ms. Clinton’s candidacy with inaccurate leaks about an investigation of the Clinton Foundation. This reflects poorly on Mr. Comey’s leadership and on the FBI ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fbi-is-completely-out-of-control/2016/11/04/20af72c4-a2be-11e6-8832-23a007c77bb4_story.html
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: How close will Florida be on Nov 8th ? on: November 05, 2016, 03:29:43 am
Clinton by 2-4%.  I think she is a stronger candidate in Florida than Obama was and she absolutely murdered Sanders here in the primary.  The country's changing demographics are definitely on display in Florida and Latino voters will come out strong for Clinton.  Her organization in this state is extremely strong.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Iowa and why? on: November 05, 2016, 03:23:03 am
Trump.  The state's demographics play right into his wheelhouse.  It is an almost all-white state and the number of non-college whites is higher than the national average.  There is a lack of major metropolitan areas.  Hillary has never shown any strength in this state, barely beating Bernie this year and getting wasted in 2008.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats, Are you Panicked for the Senate? (Poll) on: November 05, 2016, 03:05:34 am
Not panicked, but definitely nervous.  I feel much more confident about the Presidential race and would bet money that Clinton will win.  I think our chances of taking back the U.S. Senate are above 50%, but I would not be putting money on it.

That said, I think we are likely to get to 50 at least because I believe Cortez Masto is going to hold NV.  Our pickups for sure are IL (Duckworth), WI (Feingold) and PA (McGinty).  I think NH (Hassan) will make it 50.

So that leaves Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri.  Those are all too close to call.  The optimist in me hopes we will get two of the three.  If we have to lose one of them I am not a fan of Evan Bayh.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton or Trump... Who will win? on: November 03, 2016, 10:15:16 pm
Clinton, probably by 4-7%.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: November 02, 2016, 01:54:48 am
The Political Hat: "Nevada Early Vote Update 2016 (Day 10 of 14)"

http://politicalhat.com/2016/11/01/nevada-early-vote-update-2016-day-10-of-14/

"In Summary

     With over two-thirds of the early voting over, it continues to look like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The Republicans are set to lose two of Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Assembly, the state Senate for at least four years, and potentially give Cortez Masto a life-time appointment to the U.S. Senate while concomitantly enshrining her as the new Democratic king-maker in Nevada.

     To whit: Republicans should be hitting the panic button like a crack monkey putting down the crack pipe."

In this story on 538, Jon Ralston says:

Quote
Ralston, who correctly called the victories of Obama in 2012 (based on the early vote) and Reid in 2010, thinks the polls are leaning too Republican, given the early vote numbers. As he told me: “I’ve been following these early voting numbers for a few cycles and they predict a lot in Nevada: the 2012 Obama victory, the 2014 red wave. Unless there are seriously strange voting patterns going on, this is just about over here for Trump.” If it is over for Trump in Nevada, he loses six electoral votes in a race he probably can’t afford to lose.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Comey blowback megathread - Latest: may have violated Hatch act? on: November 01, 2016, 02:19:29 am
Steven Benen has a good roundup of the blowback against Comey below, which runs the partisan spectrum in the federal legal community:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/fbis-james-comey-under-fire-after-jolting-presidential-race

Highlights include:

Quote
Two former deputy attorneys general – Democrat Jamie Gorelick and Republican Larry Thompson – wrote a rather brutal piece in the Washington Post over the weekend, describing Comey’s actions as “antithetical to the interests of justice, putting a thumb on the scale of this election and damaging our democracy.”

Quote
Former Attorney General Eric Holder has a piece of his own in the Washington Post today, praising Comey as “a man of integrity and honor,” who in this case “committed a serious error with potentially severe implications.”

Quote
Holder also joined nearly 100 former federal prosecutors and high-ranking Justice Department officials – from Democratic and Republican administrations – who signed onto a joint letter expressing serious concerns about Comey’s conduct.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/statements/2016/10/30/open-letter-from-former-federal-prosecutors-and-high-ranking-officials-of-the-u-s-department-of-justice/

Quote
The Hatch Act prohibits government officials from using their offices to influence elections, and over the weekend, Richard Painter, George W. Bush’s chief White House ethics lawyer, filed a complaint against Comey’s office with the Office of Special Counsel and the Office of Government Ethics. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) raised the same concern in a letter yesterday to the FBI director directly.


15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will/Should FBI Director Comey Resign? on: October 30, 2016, 09:38:10 pm
He should resign, but I don't know if he will.  He has inserted the FBI into the middle of the campaign and violated Justice Department protocol more than once, with this latest violation being egregious.  He may very well have compromised the integrity of this presidential election.  People can no longer trust that he will not use the FBI to meddle in political elections.  He needs to be fired.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Comey taking orders from Putin? on: October 30, 2016, 08:11:36 pm
No I don't think so.  It appears he is deliberately using his office to try and damage Clinton, but that isn't the same as colluding with Putin.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Comey blowback megathread - Latest: may have violated Hatch act? on: October 30, 2016, 08:01:19 pm
In 2012 Reid claimed that Mitt Romney paid no federal taxes -- claims which were later proven false.

That said, Comey repeatedly violates longstanding Justice Department protocol by making public announcements about the e-mail case while maintaining traditional FBI silence about the Russia case.  Especially when the latest pronouncement is a vague and open-ended letter 11 days before the Presidential election, it looks like Comey is deliberately trying to damage Secretary Clinton.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / A former GOP congresscritter off the record on: October 30, 2016, 04:33:54 am
Robert Reich speaks with a longtime friend who is a former Republican member of Congress:

Quote
Me: What do you think of your party’s nominee for president?

He: Trump is a maniac. He’s a clear and present danger to America.

Me: Have you said publicly that you won’t vote for him?

He (sheepishly): No.

Me: Why not?

He: I’m a coward.

Me: What do you mean?

He: I live in a state with a lot of Trump voters. Most Republican officials do.

Me: But you’re a former official. You're not running for Congress again. What are you afraid of?

He: I hate to admit it, but I’m afraid of them. Some of those Trumpistas are out of their ing minds.

Me: You mean you’re afraid for your own physical safety?

He: All it takes is one of them, you know.

Me: Wait a minute. Isn’t this how dictators and fascists have come to power in other nations? Respected leaders don’t dare take a stand.

He: At least I’m no Giuliani or Gingrich or Pence. I’m not a Trump enabler.

Me: I’ll give you that.

He: Let me tell you something. Most current and former Republican members of Congress are exactly like me. I talk with them. They think Trump is deplorable. And they think Giuliani and Gingrich are almost as bad. But they’re not gonna speak out. Some don’t want to end their political careers. Most don’t want to risk their lives. The Trump crowd is just too dangerous. Trump has whipped them up into a g*ddamn frenzy.
https://www.facebook.com/RBReich/posts/1349621041717155
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The seriousness of what Comey did if these are true on: October 30, 2016, 04:15:37 am
On another note, Democrats are certainly interested in Russian interference in this election.  Comey has been scrupulous about following Justice Department protocol and saying nothing public about that FBI investigation.  Yet when it comes to Clinton's emails, he has no problem commenting publicly.  First during the earlier press conference and now 11 days before an election.  He is picking and choosing when to follow Department protocol.  
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The seriousness of what Comey did if these are true on: October 30, 2016, 03:14:04 am
This article I found in the New Yorker had some good perspective on the recent events:

Quote
Comey’s decision is a striking break with the policies of the Department of Justice, according to current and former federal legal officials ... his latest action is stirring an extraordinary level of concern among legal authorities, who see it as potentially affecting the outcome of the Presidential and congressional elections.

“You don’t do this,” one former senior Justice Department official exclaimed. “It’s aberrational. It violates decades of practice.” The reason, according to the former official, who asked not to be identified because of ongoing cases involving the department, “is because it impugns the integrity and reputation of the candidate, even though there’s no finding by a court, or in this instance even an indictment.”

Quote
“I don’t really blame Comey,” another former Justice Department official said. “But it’s troubling.” This official thought that Comey “didn’t want to look tainted. This new information comes to him, and he’s afraid if he doesn’t make it public until after the election he’ll be impeached. People will say he lied to Congress. But in the end he did the self-protective thing. Was it the right thing? Put it this way: it isn’t what previous Administrations have done.”
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/james-comey-broke-with-loretta-lynch-and-justice-department-tradition
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The big picture that everyone is ignoring on: October 29, 2016, 03:22:40 am
Republicans have legitimate policy reasons to oppose Clinton, but all that got wiped away when you nominated an unqualified, unhinged raging misogynist who brags about sexual assault, been accused of sexual assault by a dozen women or more and calls women "slobs," "dogs," and "pigs/Miss Piggy."  Nor is this an aberration.  We all remember Todd "legitimate rape" Akin in 2012.  Akin also said Sen. McCaskill was not "ladylike" which reminds me of Trump's "such a nasty woman" comment.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tim Kaine: If Republicans block 9th SC justice, nuclear option ready on: October 29, 2016, 02:23:25 am
The Supreme Court blockade currently being undertaken by Senate Republicans is unprecedented, except for an event in 1866:

Quote
“I think we’re dealing with territory we haven’t ventured into for 150 years,” says Siegel, a former special counsel to then-Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. during the confirmation hearings of Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. in 2005 and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. in 2006.

In 1866, the nomination of Henry Stanbery, President Andrew Johnson’s attorney general, to the high court was the victim of lawmakers who did not want to show any support for Johnson. A congressional majority opposed to the president’s Reconstruction policies went so far as to reduce the size of the Supreme Court from the then-prevailing 10 members to seven, thus eliminating the position to which Stanbery was nominated.

Siegel says that none of the congressional reactions to that nomination “have been viewed as worthy of emulation by subsequent generations.”

Until now, perhaps.

I believe Senate Republicans when they suggest that they will attempt to block President Clinton's nominees indefinitely.  If they persist in this, there really is no other choice but the nuclear option.  This has already gone on for far too long.  Of course, someday there will be a Republican President, a Democratic Senate and a Supreme Court vacancy.  Will all the GOP avatars go into self-righteous b!tch moan whine mode when we return the favor?
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Will Hillary govern in a more liberal or conservative manner than Obama? on: October 27, 2016, 11:25:03 pm
Slightly more progressive on domestic policy, slightly more hawkish on foreign policy.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Kirk Goes Full Racist on: October 27, 2016, 10:29:48 pm
Very idiotic, but it's not racist.

Speaking of the stroke, it has severely aged him. Look at his Wikipedia picture and him in his ads. Very sad for a very good man.

Yes it is and it is something that those of us who are Asian and Latino have encountered many times -- the not-so-subtle suggestion that we do not belong in the United States.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence's plane skids off runway at LGA on: October 27, 2016, 10:08:01 pm
A metaphor and an omen for the Trump Campaign.
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