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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R) on: May 05, 2015, 09:02:52 pm
Wisconsin is well on track to send two of the most liberal Democrats to the Senate like they belong!

Having Baldwin and Feingold as the two senators from WI would be beautiful (and make up for the horribleness of the Senate situation in Iowa, another swing state).
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 08:09:18 pm
We've been here before.  When the Supreme Court struck down interracial marriage bans as unconstitutional in 1967, some public officials insisted they would continue to support such bans.  Even decades later, some still thought such marriages should be illegal.  But the bans were wrong then just as the bans on same-sex marriage are wrong now.  The "slippery slope" argument was used against interracial marriage.  And so was a version of the procreation argument  -- that "mongrel" children born from such unions would be unnatural and freakish.  People didn't want interracial couples to marry because they might procreate.  Today they don't want LGBT to marry because they cannot procreate together.  Stupid.



3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anti-Clinton hit piece in National Journal jumps the shark hard on: April 28, 2015, 12:56:16 am
Josh Kraushaar is a right-wing writer.  His stuff is sometimes worth reading to get a sense of internal Republican politics, but everything he writes about Democrats is hackish partisan noise.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly will Republicans run on? on: April 26, 2015, 10:36:42 pm
Obama is an evil communist from Kenya, Hillary is a corrupt communist from Lesbia, they are weakening America from within.  White Christians are threatened by evil minorities and evil homosexuals.  We are sliding toward Sodom and Gomorrah.  Benghazi.  Obamacare evil.  STOP THE MARXIST REVOLUTION.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? Round 2 on: April 23, 2015, 07:17:54 pm
Conventional wisdom holds that the first rule of picking a running mate is "due no harm."  Kaine would I think be the most anodyne possible pick.  Obviously, the fact he is a senator and former governor from a key swing state doesn't hurt.  And having served as a lieutenant governor as well, he may be more comfortable with being No. 2 than some other possible choices.  Since McAuliffe would appoint Kaine's successor there is no trouble there either.  In some ways, the choice would not be too different from Obama's selection of Biden.

However, another piece of conventional wisdom is that it would be a good idea for Clinton to groom the next generation.  If she is intent on pushing the Democratic Party's demographic edge to the max, a Clinton/Castro ticket presses upon almost all the salient points.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/09/julian-castro-is-in-vp-training-camp.html



6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Well, your opinion of Hillary's video? on: April 12, 2015, 04:20:06 pm
She understands what the various elements of her base are and equal opportunity will be a core theme of her campaign.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 10, 2014, 11:30:34 pm
IA and CO (Obama states) plus AK (As Begich has the superior ground game).
8  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 10, 2014, 04:11:20 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  

Yes. Next question...

It will be highly amusing if you wind up backtracking like you did on North Carolina.
9  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: POS: Hagan leads...in Tillis internal on: October 10, 2014, 04:08:43 am

10  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 08, 2014, 03:58:47 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  I wonder who is doing better in that race these days ...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: October 08, 2014, 03:43:08 am

Am I the only one who finds this soundbite incredibly sexist and offensive?
Especially coming from (I assume) a white guy.

Hopefully this incident will simply work in favor of Udall.  Suburban women are the key swing demographic in this state.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most likely CO/KS result on: October 08, 2014, 01:57:05 am
Udall wins, Roberts loses.

I would say the tighter question is between Roberts and the open seat in Iowa. 
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa? on: September 27, 2014, 02:08:12 pm
Braley.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 26, 2014, 01:29:08 am
One other name I might throw out there is Martin O'Malley.  If he does in fact run for President, look for Clinton to shrewdly assess how he handles the white heat of a national race and the media vetting process.  If he shows strong candidate skills, no big skeletons emerge and he doesn't go too negative on her, he might very well get serious consideration.  He's compiled a considerable record as governor of Maryland and the base will like him. 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 03:18:33 am
If Gillibrand were selected I would assume Clinton would run as a Washington D.C. resident, as she does maintain a home there.  This issue has come up before.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122289
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 01:48:05 am
My guess is that Clinton will put a high value on executive and/or legislative accomplishment.

I would agree with the consensus here that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are the two obvious choices.  They would be relatively safe picks and Clinton is known for caution.  Both are former governors/current senators of a key swing state.  And Gov. Terry McAuliffe would appoint a successor in the Senate so no trouble there.  Warner has stronger political standing in Virginia but also carries more political baggage than Kaine.

My problem with a Sherrod Brown pick, although I like him a great deal, is that Gov. Kasich is likely to win reelection this November and would appoint his successor. 

If Clinton is willing to take a risk (doubtful) then I would say the best choices would be either Julian Castro or Kirsten Gillibrand.  Gillibrand has developed a solid record in the Senate, has gotten some media buzz and I suspect she would love to run nationally.  Clinton places a high value on loyalty and Gillibrand has been loyal from the start (she cut her teeth in politics working on Hillary's 2000 Senate campaign).  Her work for women's rights would reinforce Clinton's message, similar to what Bill did with Al Gore in '92.

I'm less familiar with Castro's record.  From what I've seen he has huge potential and the demographic appeal is obvious.  But I'm not sure he'll have had enough time to develop his credentials.




17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I don't understand the Jim Webb potential candidacy on: September 24, 2014, 09:41:07 pm
I don't understand it either.  He quit after one term and reportedly hated/was terrible at retail politics.  Has he somehow picked up a taste for retail politics since he retired?  Otherwise Iowa and New Hampshire will go badly. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pat Roberts: Our country is headed for national socialism on: September 23, 2014, 10:36:57 pm
Quote
That's not right. Changing the culture, changing what we're all about.

I've seen this dog whistle countless times before from right-wing politicians.  I think many fellow people of color and LGBT recognize it.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Arkansas? on: September 23, 2014, 08:36:30 pm
Cotton.
20  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 on: September 19, 2014, 02:09:39 am
538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

Quote
We should be wary of these latest Quinnipiac surveys. Not only are the results the most Republican-friendly of the year in either state, but Quinnipiac’s polls have previously been too pro-Republican at this point in midterm elections. Its likely voter polls in 2010 had Republican Tom Foley up by 9 percentage points in the Connecticut gubernatorial race; he lost by a point. Quinnipiac had Democrat Andrew Cuomo up by just 6 points in the New York gubernatorial race; he won by 29 points. It had Republican John Kasich up by 17 points in the Ohio gubernatorial race; he won by just 2 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.


21  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Vox Populi (R): Brown in the lead on: September 18, 2014, 07:44:02 pm
Fixed. Sorry. Yeah, Phil, you've figured me out Wink

Miles, thanks for your work entering all the polls.  I appreciate it.
22  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: Gardner +1 on: September 17, 2014, 08:45:00 pm
People need to keep things in perspective and not panic.  This Suffolk poll has Gardner up by a single point.  The last poll Gardner led in was done by Quinnipiac back in July.  Since then Sen. Udall has led in seven polls.  Unless Suffolk is confirmed by multiple other pollsters this is just statistical noise.  I am still confident Sen. Udall will win reelection.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-colorado-senate-gardner-vs-udall
23  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP confirms that the race is Lean D on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:08 am
Hagan has made courting women voters, especially single women, the backbone of her campaign -- "heels on the ground" was what she called it -- and it shows, with a 49-33 edge among women, similar to what other polls have shown.  


A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

The Republican Party brand is also deeply unpopular nationally and while that may not matter much in solid Republican states, the swing states are a different story.  There is a reason why the races in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are trending in Democrats favor.  Gardner, Tillis and Ernst have records which are an ill fit for running in purple states.  Now that voters are being informed of those records they are not doing so well.
24  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4% on: September 15, 2014, 01:22:02 am
That's the fourth poll so far this month which has Hagan winning.  There was also the Tillis internal which showed a tie.  The state of the race looks clear.


Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. Smiley

On a somewhat related note, at 538 they note that the Senate Democratic candidates in purple/swing states are "beating the national mood."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/
25  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 14, 2014, 05:32:09 pm
You are flat out false.

lol.  We love you too and will remember you when the outcome of the NC Senate race is announced.
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