Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2015, 01:00:37 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 83
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O'Malley Gets Cold Response After He Says 'White Lives Matter, All Lives Matter' on: July 22, 2015, 12:24:57 am
If the numbers you posted are correct, it is worth pointing out that whites make up 72% of the United States population and African-Americans are 13%. 

But whites aren't 72% of those killed by the police -- they are only 49%.  And African-Americans are 31% -- which is more than double their share of the U.S. population.

But we also have to remember that despite being 13% of the population blacks commit roughly half of all murder's in the USA, and more then half of all robberies.

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/tables/43tabledatadecoverviewpdf

The fact is that due to social circumstances blacks commit a wildly disproportionate amount of crimes in the United States. So it figures that they would correspondingly have a disproportionate number of fatalities involving law enforcement.

I really for the life of me don't understand why more people don't realize this.


A study by The Guardian found that unarmed blacks are far more likely to be killed by the police than unarmed whites. 

Quote
More than one in of five those killed so far in 2015 – 119 people in all – were unarmed. While 31.6% of black people killed were found to be carrying no weapon, that was true for only 16.5% of white people. This stark disparity has stayed roughly constant since The Counted began publishing at the beginning of June.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/01/us-police-killings-this-year-black-americans
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O'Malley Gets Cold Response After He Says 'White Lives Matter, All Lives Matter' on: July 21, 2015, 11:49:39 pm
    Correct me if I'm wrong here but I believe I heard that whites make up 49% of those killed by police, and blacks 31%.  Clearly that 31% is higher than the black population, but its probably in the ball park of those involved in violent, or potential violent situations with the police.
   It would have been interesting if O'Malley had said Hispanic lives matter, immigrant lives matter, Asian lives matter, Greek lives matter, Irish American lives matter etc, to see at what point the crowd would have started booing.

If the numbers you posted are correct, it is worth pointing out that whites make up 72% of the United States population and African-Americans are 13%. 

But whites aren't 72% of those killed by the police -- they are only 49%.  And African-Americans are 31% -- which is more than double their share of the U.S. population.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton use Obama in the general election? on: July 20, 2015, 11:43:12 pm
It will largely depend on his approval ratings.  Obama's approval ratings are currently at 47%, which is about average at this point in a two-term presidency.

It is not as good as the 60% Bill Clinton had in July 1999, but far better than than the wretched 30% George W. Bush had in July 2007.  Obama's approvals, even at their worst, have never gotten anywhere close to that bad.

Assuming his approvals stay in the 45%-50% range, Hillary will embrace Obama -- but only to a point.  The obvious answer would be to have Obama campaign in areas where African-American or youth turnout will be critical.  But who knows, the Clinton campaign may crunch the numbers and consider other uses.  It will also be interesting to see what speaking slot Obama is given at the convention.  Unlike George W. Bush in 2008 and 2012 I think he will be there.

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign worried about Sanders, believe he's a real threat on: July 11, 2015, 03:15:23 pm
The truth is that the Sanders boomlet is not an entirely bad things for Clinton.  In fact for the time being the positives probably outweigh the negatives.  Sanders can reach certain parts of the base which Hillary cannot and keep those voters engaged.  Furthermore, Hillary wants to be seen as working for the nomination.  Team Clinton knows this and is no doubt contemplating how it can capitalize on Sanders rise.  Their current statements are partially out of respect for Sanders -- but also the knowledge that his campaign is not as harmful to Team Clinton as they are trying to make it appear.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign worried about Sanders, believe he's a real threat on: July 07, 2015, 09:09:24 pm
I hope all these Sanders supporters are happy when a Republican wins and Ruth Ginsberg is found keeled over on the floor of her office and the Republicans get to choose the next Supreme Court Justice so that they and some other little toad on Daily Kos gets to feel good and self-righteous about themselves.

Pathetic and disgusting. But whatever it takes for the True Leftists of Atlas to feel good about themselves, the jackasses.


I've considered this "risk" and I'm willing to take it. What exactly are you worried an extra conservative justice will do? Republicans have had multiple chances to shift the pro-life/pro-choice balance but they never have the balls and I doubt they grow them. With corporate stuff, Hillary appointments would be just as bad the Republicans.
 

With one more vote on the SCOTUS we could reverse Citizens United.  And the hollowing out of the VRA could be stopped and even reversed.  We could reverse the Hobby Lobby decision that said corporations have First Amendment rights and can refuse to provide contraceptive coverage.  All of those decisions were 5-4 in favor of the SCOTUS conservative wing.

The abortion cases are important too but there is more to it than that.

Quote
Hillary Clinton told a group of her top fundraisers Thursday that if she is elected president, her nominees to the Supreme Court will have to share her belief that the court's 2010 Citizens United decision must be overturned, according to people who heard her remarks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/05/14/hillary-clintons-litmus-test-for-supreme-court-nominees-a-pledge-to-overturn-citizens-united/
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT: Bernie Sanders has a "non-white problem" on: July 06, 2015, 01:21:15 am
And there's nothing he can do about the fact that living out his public career in the great state of Vermont has not prepared him for addressing the needs, interests, predilections, or concerns of most minorities in any really knowledgeable way.

Yes.  I actually posted this article earlier in the thread "How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge?"  David Axelrod notes:

Quote
“There’s no doubt she understands coalition politics and she is burnishing her coalition,” Mr. Axelrod said of Mrs. Clinton. “You have to have a track record and some roots in these communities, and she does.”

Quote
“She’s talking about the issues we care about,” said Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state representative who is black and is supporting Mrs. Clinton. “Whether it’s voting rights or police reform, Hillary is attacking them head-on.”

Clinton is no doubt aware of her experience and connections appealing to black, Latino and Asian voters and Sanders weakness in those areas.  Sanders is just uncomfortable and inexperienced at making identity politics appeals.  In minority political circles he's virtually unknown.  There's nothing wrong with that and much to admire about his run.  And the fact he's far ahead of O'Malley is notable.  But we should have no illusions about the limitations of his candidacy.  All Democrats know what happens when we fail to turn out minority voters.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How should Hillary respond to the Bernie challenge? on: July 03, 2015, 02:58:52 pm
There's always going to be an element of the base which is dissatisfied with Clinton and the question is which candidate, if any, could coalesce that vote.  It looks like that is Sanders.  His rise is probably more harmful to the other potential rivals, like O'Malley, than Hillary.  And if the Sanders challenge moves Clinton to the left somewhat that's a good thing as far as I'm concerned.  

But Sanders seems uncomfortable and not very good at making identity politics appeals.  That's not helpful when you represent a state which is 95% white.  Hillary is an old pro at this, has been working the black, Latino and Asian political scene for a long time and has made many connections there.  Almost no one in those communities knows who Sanders is.  Hillary also represented New York, an extremely diverse state and through her work as Secretary of State is very familiar with many different cultures.  And obviously there is a natural bridge between her and women voters which isn't there for Sanders.  The Democratic Party is a coalition party and unless you can appeal to the different factions you are going to fail.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/us/politics/bernie-sanders-lags-hillary-clinton-in-introducing-himself-to-black-voters.html?_r=0

http://www.latimes.com/nation/immigration/la-na-democrats-latinos-20150620-story.html#page=1
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kirk: Lndsey Graham is a "bro with no ho" on: June 13, 2015, 05:19:38 pm
Maybe that's because Lindsey needs some bromo love, Mark.  Why don't you give it to him.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Graham promises "rotating First Lady" on: June 10, 2015, 09:06:18 pm
I hear Aaron Schock is available.  He's a good looking guy and a great interior decorator.

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Hillary differ from Bill? on: May 25, 2015, 02:33:23 am
Bill Clinton was an ardent free-trader.  While it would be wrong to say Hillary is protectionist, her past record on the issue is mixed.  Most likely she would be open to persuasion from both sides.

Her recent stances on police/criminal justice reform and same-sex marriage are a far cry from Bill Clinton's presidency and issues where certain parts of the base will like her much better.

Bill Clinton (and Obama) were poor at enforcing discipline when Democrats in Congress voted against something of key importance to the White House.  There were no consequences.  In a Hillary White House I believe there would be consequences.  She also has absolutely no hesitation to cut down political enemies.

She has an iron will and an ability to determinedly push forward when the going gets tough.  Bill tended to get unfocused and discouraged in the face of adversity.

She lacks Bill's flexibility and ability to quickly adapt to changing circumstances.  There were several reasons why Hillarycare flopped in 1994 and this was one of them.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R) on: May 05, 2015, 09:02:52 pm
Wisconsin is well on track to send two of the most liberal Democrats to the Senate like they belong!

Having Baldwin and Feingold as the two senators from WI would be beautiful (and make up for the horribleness of the Senate situation in Iowa, another swing state).
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 08:09:18 pm
We've been here before.  When the Supreme Court struck down interracial marriage bans as unconstitutional in 1967, some public officials insisted they would continue to support such bans.  Even decades later, some still thought such marriages should be illegal.  But the bans were wrong then just as the bans on same-sex marriage are wrong now.  The "slippery slope" argument was used against interracial marriage.  And so was a version of the procreation argument  -- that "mongrel" children born from such unions would be unnatural and freakish.  People didn't want interracial couples to marry because they might procreate.  Today they don't want LGBT to marry because they cannot procreate together.  Stupid.



13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anti-Clinton hit piece in National Journal jumps the shark hard on: April 28, 2015, 12:56:16 am
Josh Kraushaar is a right-wing writer.  His stuff is sometimes worth reading to get a sense of internal Republican politics, but everything he writes about Democrats is hackish partisan noise.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly will Republicans run on? on: April 26, 2015, 10:36:42 pm
Obama is an evil communist from Kenya, Hillary is a corrupt communist from Lesbia, they are weakening America from within.  White Christians are threatened by evil minorities and evil homosexuals.  We are sliding toward Sodom and Gomorrah.  Benghazi.  Obamacare evil.  STOP THE MARXIST REVOLUTION.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? Round 2 on: April 23, 2015, 07:17:54 pm
Conventional wisdom holds that the first rule of picking a running mate is "due no harm."  Kaine would I think be the most anodyne possible pick.  Obviously, the fact he is a senator and former governor from a key swing state doesn't hurt.  And having served as a lieutenant governor as well, he may be more comfortable with being No. 2 than some other possible choices.  Since McAuliffe would appoint Kaine's successor there is no trouble there either.  In some ways, the choice would not be too different from Obama's selection of Biden.

However, another piece of conventional wisdom is that it would be a good idea for Clinton to groom the next generation.  If she is intent on pushing the Democratic Party's demographic edge to the max, a Clinton/Castro ticket presses upon almost all the salient points.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/09/julian-castro-is-in-vp-training-camp.html



16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Well, your opinion of Hillary's video? on: April 12, 2015, 04:20:06 pm
She understands what the various elements of her base are and equal opportunity will be a core theme of her campaign.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 10, 2014, 11:30:34 pm
IA and CO (Obama states) plus AK (As Begich has the superior ground game).
18  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 10, 2014, 04:11:20 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  

Yes. Next question...

It will be highly amusing if you wind up backtracking like you did on North Carolina.
19  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: POS: Hagan leads...in Tillis internal on: October 10, 2014, 04:08:43 am

20  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 08, 2014, 03:58:47 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  I wonder who is doing better in that race these days ...
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: October 08, 2014, 03:43:08 am

Am I the only one who finds this soundbite incredibly sexist and offensive?
Especially coming from (I assume) a white guy.

Hopefully this incident will simply work in favor of Udall.  Suburban women are the key swing demographic in this state.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most likely CO/KS result on: October 08, 2014, 01:57:05 am
Udall wins, Roberts loses.

I would say the tighter question is between Roberts and the open seat in Iowa. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa? on: September 27, 2014, 02:08:12 pm
Braley.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 26, 2014, 01:29:08 am
One other name I might throw out there is Martin O'Malley.  If he does in fact run for President, look for Clinton to shrewdly assess how he handles the white heat of a national race and the media vetting process.  If he shows strong candidate skills, no big skeletons emerge and he doesn't go too negative on her, he might very well get serious consideration.  He's compiled a considerable record as governor of Maryland and the base will like him. 
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 03:18:33 am
If Gillibrand were selected I would assume Clinton would run as a Washington D.C. resident, as she does maintain a home there.  This issue has come up before.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122289
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 83


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines