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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Sanders manage to remove superdelegates from future contests? on: May 28, 2016, 03:51:02 am
My guess is a compromise will be reached where the number of superdelegates is significantly reduced but not eliminated. 
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gut feeling about the Hillary campaign on: May 28, 2016, 01:50:43 am
Let's look at the fundamentals rather than political noise and "feelings" --

1.  President Obama's job approval is around 50% -- solid political territory for the woman who hopes to be his successor.

2.  There are no major red flags in the economic indicators.  Unemployment is around 5%, gas prices are low.  The economy isn't going great guns, but it is not bad -- and let us not forget that Obama inherited the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in 2009.

3.  Rather than trying to woo women and nonwhites, Donald Trump has completely alienated them and focused on white men with no college degree.  As Amy Walter points out, this demographic has been steadily shrinking.

Quote
In 1980, 65 percent of the electorate were whites without a college degree. By 2012, whites without a college degree made up just 36 percent of the vote.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9637

4.  Nonwhite voters were 28% of the electorate in 2012 and projected to be 30% this time.  Trump is going to lose them in a landslide.

5.  If you count up the states that Democrats have consistently won in all four of the last presidential elections (2000-2012), vs. all the states the GOP consistently won during that period, Democrats have a 242-180 advantage in the electoral college.  

Walter concludes:

Quote
Ultimately, the Rust Belt Trump strategy reminds me of one of those Hollywood movies where the protagonist is desperately trying to outrun an oncoming storm. In this case, the storm is demographic realities and Trump’s own high negatives. In the movie, the storm eventually wins. Maybe Trump can outrun and outsmart this storm, but it requires the kind of meticulous campaigning and disciplined approach that he and his team have eschewed up to this point.

I feel just fine about Clinton's chances.

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the Silent Majority vote for Hillary Clinton in November? on: May 27, 2016, 11:58:11 pm
There was an article about this in NPR:

Quote
Publicly showing support for Hillary Clinton just isn't worth the aggravation for Winkler and her friends Leigh Featherstone and Holly Chamberlin.

They do roller derby together and were among about dozen women blocking, skating and slamming into each other — and the pavement — during a recent scrimmage in Albuquerque.

Winkler, Featherstone and Chamberlin are in their late 20s and early 30s — a lawyer, a non-profit data manager and an engineer. They all want Hillary Clinton to be president, but you won't see it on their car bumpers or dominating their Facebook feeds.
http://www.npr.org/2016/05/27/479618571/hillary-clinton-supporters-may-be-hiding-in-plain-view
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will there be general election debates? on: May 27, 2016, 11:02:20 pm
Given the misogyny that Trump has shown throughout the campaign, can you imagine the overwhelming ridicule that will rain down on Trump for refusing to debate Hillary?

I can see the headlines now:  "Terrified Trump running scared from debate with Clinton."  LOL.


5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: "There is No Drought" in California on: May 27, 2016, 09:35:37 pm
There is a drought in Trump's brain, nothing has been flowing up there except hot air.

I don't think Trump will get above 35% in California.  I'm starting to think he could drop as low as 30%.

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Hillary need to do in order to appeal to more white males? on: May 27, 2016, 05:09:17 pm
In 2012 Romney defeated Obama among white men 62-35.

White men are going to vote for one of their own (Trump) over Hillary.  That's just the way it is.  Any idea that Hillary can make a major improvement over Obama's white male performance would be foolish.  Obama won the 2012 election 51-47 in spite of his abysmal performance among white men.  However, I think Clinton can make a logical pitch to white men with a college degree that Trump is crazy and dangerous while she is rational and well-prepared.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: May 27, 2016, 01:47:07 am
If this is how Trump woos undecided Republican officials, can one imagine him conducting "diplomacy" as president?

The optics of this look as terrible as Chris Christie in a thong.  Don't worry, AmeriKKKa.  Trump will put the uppity Latina in her place!
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win in June? (D) on: May 25, 2016, 09:06:23 pm
US Virgin Islands: Clinton
Puerto Rico: Clinton
California: Clinton
Montana: Sanders
New Jersey: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
North Dakota: Sanders
South Dakota: Sanders
District of Columbia: Clinton
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie fans: if he were more conservative than Hillary, but acting the same... on: May 24, 2016, 02:34:25 am
I support the right of candidates to run in any election they like. They should not have to drop out just because they are going to lose. The idea that they should is bizarre and no one has ever put it forward except Hillary supports at this current moment.

During the 2008 Democratic Primary there was intense pressure on Hillary to drop out by Obama supporters.  

Well it was dumb then too but it certainly wasn't as loud. I think every state should have the right to choose between at least two active candidates. No one candidate elections in America.

As someone who was around and watching that election, I don't agree.  High-profile Obama surrogates began telling the media Clinton should drop out as early as March 2008.  And Obama's pledged delegate lead was less than half the size of Clinton's current lead.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/28/leahy-clinton-should-drop-out/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/post_28.html


There was even a column in Slate in 2008 called the "Hillary Deathwatch."  LOL, is that not intense and loud pressure to get out?  A sample:

Quote
Obama won't declare victory after Tuesday, but only because the media will do it for him. Clinton's chances sag another 0.1 point to 1.6 percent.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/deathwatch.html




10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie fans: if he were more conservative than Hillary, but acting the same... on: May 24, 2016, 02:06:09 am
I support the right of candidates to run in any election they like. They should not have to drop out just because they are going to lose. The idea that they should is bizarre and no one has ever put it forward except Hillary supports at this current moment.

During the 2008 Democratic Primary there was intense pressure on Hillary to drop out by Obama supporters.  
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 20, 2016, 07:03:09 pm
Dammit, Ogre Mage! You just ruined his narrative!

There's more.

Joan Walsh (The Nation)

Walsh has harsh words not only for wannabe messiah Sanders, but also our pathetic joke of a DNC chair, Debbie Wasserman Schutz.

Quote
 And once again, Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz escalated a conflict that she should have worked to defuse. Repeatedly accused of unfairness by the Sanders campaign—not always with clear evidence—she has time and again replied harshly and defensively to her critics.

Quote
What will be fatal to Sanders’s future as a mass-movement leader—as opposed to the messiah of an angry, heavily white, and male cult—is his continued insistence that his enemy now is not so much the corporate overlords, or income inequality, or the big banks, but a corrupt Democratic Party, epitomized by Wall Street flunkie Hillary Clinton, that has “rigged” the election to thwart him—as he raged in a tone-deaf speech Tuesday night, as cable news was showing the texted death threats to Roberta Lange in the background (which Sanders did not even mention).
http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-is-hurting-himself-by-playing-the-victim/

Jamelle Bouie (Slate)
Quote
When Sanders derides most Democratic primary voters as everything wrong with a party of “limited participation and limited energy,” when he looks for ways to nullify Clinton’s popular vote and pledged delegate majority, when he touts his support among working-class whites and dismisses (predominantly black) Southern Democrats and their votes, Sanders is attacking the coalition that elected Barack Obama—the coalition that arguably made his progressive movement possible—whether he realizes it or not.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/05/bernie_sanders_scorched_earth_run_against_hillary_clinton_is_a_mistake.html


Sanders began this campaign claiming that he didn't want to be another Ralph Nader but with his continuous slams against the Democratic Party (and over process issues, not the policy issues his campaign was supposed to be about) that is exactly who he is starting to resemble.  Still, it is not yet too late.  Sanders needs to do some hard thinking about his legacy.  What is Ralph Nader's reputation today?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Point blank: Does Trump do better or worse than Romney amongst whites? on: May 20, 2016, 06:48:15 pm
Worse.  He will do as well or perhaps even slightly better than Romney among white men, but it won't make up for what will be a limp, low-energy performance with white women.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 20, 2016, 01:59:50 am
kos at Daily Kos rips into Sanders over his pathetic "statement."  

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/17/1527598/-Amazing-Bernie-Sanders-still-can-t-tell-his-most-crazed-supporters-to-stop-acting-like-Trump-goons

As someone who did not vote for Sanders in the Primary but respected the spirit of what he was trying to accomplish, this was a leadership test and he failed badly.  Are violence and death threats now part of a "positive campaign?"  

I'm glad Elizabeth Warren didn't run.  Running for President usually results in the candidate making big and unpleasant compromises to their integrity.  Hillary accepted that long ago and Sanders has now sunk into a moral quagmire.  At least someone in the party can still speak with moral authority.

Kos declared Hillary the nominee over 2 years ago and has been trashing Bernie nonstop, so who cares what he thinks?

Kos is hardly alone.  Sanders has been blasted across progressive media and the progressive blogosphere for this.

Josh Marshall (Talking Points Memo):
Quote
“Sanders is telling his supporters that he can still win, which he can’t. He’s suggesting that the win is being stolen by a corrupt establishment, an impression which will be validated when his phony prediction turns out not to be true. Lying like this sets you up for stuff like happened over the weekend in Nevada.”
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/it-comes-from-the-very-top

Kevin Drum (Mother Jones):
Quote
“Before this campaign, he was a gadfly, he was a critic of the system, and he was a man of strong principles. He still is, but he’s also obviously very, very bitter… By all objective measures he did way better than anyone expected and had far more influence than anyone thought he would, and he should feel good about that. Instead, he seems more angry and resentful with every passing day.”
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/05/decline-fall-bernie-sanders

Joy-Ann Reid (MSNBC/Daily Beast):
Quote
Sanders and his team have seemed at times to encourage the bitter-enders to fight to the proverbial death, with the campaign itself vowing to contest the nomination right onto the convention floor. It’s not clear what Team Sanders hopes to achieve, beyond a platform battle in Philadelphia that will make for a great TV spectacle, but won’t change the outcome.

If Sanders does hope to have a future in Democratic Party politics, he will eventually have to tell his supporters the truth: that he simply lost the primary contest, despite a hard-fought race.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/18/come-on-bernie-time-to-level-with-your-dreamers.html

John Aravosis (AMERICAblog):
Quote
This is what happens when you try to win an election by convincing people that the system is broken and that the election was stolen. They end up believing you. Sanders’ refusal to tamp down the violence is scarily akin to Donald Trump’s own refusal to help de-escalate his most extreme supporters.
http://americablog.com/2016/05/sanders-issues-angry-statement-defending.html



14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 18, 2016, 02:41:25 am
kos at Daily Kos rips into Sanders over his pathetic "statement."  

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/17/1527598/-Amazing-Bernie-Sanders-still-can-t-tell-his-most-crazed-supporters-to-stop-acting-like-Trump-goons

As someone who did not vote for Sanders in the Primary but respected the spirit of what he was trying to accomplish, this was a leadership test and he failed badly.  Are violence and death threats now part of a "positive campaign?"  

I'm glad Elizabeth Warren didn't run.  Running for President usually results in the candidate making big and unpleasant compromises to their integrity.  Hillary accepted that long ago and Sanders has now sunk into a moral quagmire.  At least someone in the party can still speak with moral authority.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie rage quits interview after being asked about Chaos at Nevada convention on: May 17, 2016, 07:38:08 pm
It's clear Sanders has no idea what to do now that his "revolution" in Nevada at least is out of control.  I suppose we shouldn't be surprised.  It's not like he had a coherent plan for much else in this campaign.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 17, 2016, 07:11:03 pm
Jon Ralson reported on this incident:

Quote
Sanders lost the caucus on Feb. 20. He had no right to the most delegates, even if the Clinton campaign was asleep at the switch for the county conventions. The Sanders campaign simply did not follow through. As the Medium post reveals, the Sanders folks just did not show up; the Clinton delegates did:

Clinton only had 27 delegate positions vacant on Saturday. Sanders left 462 vacant. Clinton filled 98 percent of her available delegate slots at the State Convention, and Sanders only filled 78 percent of his available delegate slots.

End of story. They lost.

On the 64 delegates the Sanders campaign insists should have been seated, the Democratic Party post reveals only six showed up and:

The remaining potential delegates were ineligible for two main reasons: 1) They were not registered Democratic voters in Nevada by May 1, 2016, and 2) Their information — such as address, date of birth and name — could not be found or identified, and they did not respond to requests from the party and campaigns to correct it.

Quote
Sanders is still going to lose the nomination by a little something called math, barring anything unforeseen. And are Bilbray, Morelli and other Berniebots going to make the Nevada Democratic Party better by filling slots to take control of an organization that has dominated Nevada politics and been copycatted by Republicans? What exactly do they bring to the table except blind fury and guaranteed disorganization?
https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/sour-grapes-revolution-rocked-paris-hotel


He also reports that Sanders supporters are now trying to shut down the businesses that Nevada Democratic Party Chairwoman Roberta Lange oversees.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/business-state-democratic-chairwoman-oversees-targeted-berners
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Bernie endorses TRUMP on: May 16, 2016, 12:47:40 am
Is this the level of delusion Trump supporters have sunk to?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump reach out to the black community? on: May 16, 2016, 12:45:44 am
Trump could win 6-10% of the black vote.

I agree, he could win 6-10% of the black vote.  And that is a shi**y showing.  Putting the Obama years aside it would be at the lower end of what Republican candidates normally get among the black vote in Presidential elections. 

If Trump getting 6-10% of the black vote is somehow being taken as a good sign by Trump supporters I can't do anything except laugh.



19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton supporters, are you scared that Hillary will blow it? on: May 14, 2016, 07:32:49 am
I don't much like Margaret Thatcher but she was right about one thing.  "This is no time to go wobbly."
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Give a jfern style response on the preveding topic on: May 14, 2016, 05:16:35 am
Barber is a FF and not enough of a corporate DimRat party whore for $hillary to pick him. 

Opinion of the TV show Game of Thrones.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best vice president for Clinton out of these picks on: May 12, 2016, 01:59:33 am
Kaine's a whole lot more boring than Warner. Is there a particular reason Atlas thinks he's so much better?

Boring is not a disadvantage in the VP selection, where the No. 1 rule is "do no harm."  Kaine is slightly to Warner's left and would be a bit more palatable to the base.  Kaine speaks fluent Spanish while Warner doesn't.  Kaine sits on both the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committee while Warner doesn't so Kaine is more versed in military and foreign policy.  Kaine has served as a Lieutenant Governor so he has experience being a No. 2.  Warner doesn't. 
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders suggests that the Democratic Party fund a left-wing Fox News equivalent on: May 09, 2016, 11:15:16 pm
For a time I hoped MSNBC could fill the space in-between the superficial and false "objectivity" of the mainstream media and the off-the-rails, reactionary and brainless TYT.  But they seem to be foundering lately.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of the Asian American vote will Hillary receive? on: May 09, 2016, 09:44:48 pm
75-79%. Trump is nearly as toxic to Asians as he is to Latinos

That is my answer as well.  Part of it is the anti-immigrant rhetoric/policy, but Trump also does poorly among college-educated voters.  Asians have the highest proportion of college graduates of any race in the country.  I see nothing that would stop the trend we have seen over the past two decades.

1992 Asian vote:  George H.W. Bush 55%, Bill Clinton 31%
1996 Asian vote:  Bob Dole 48%, Bill Clinton 44%
2000 Asian vote:  Al Gore 55%, George W. Bush 41%
2004 Asian vote:  John Kerry 56%, George W. Bush 43%
2008 Asian vote:  Barack Obama 62%, John McCain 35%
2012 Asian vote:  Barack Obama 73%, Mitt Romney 26%
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump repair his relations with the Latino/Female/Muslim demographics? on: May 09, 2016, 04:15:00 am
So I guess Trump would need about 75% of white men to have a prayer of winning?  Even Reagan never came close to that.  And that's assuming he somehow manages to break even with Hillary among white women, which is possible although polls at present are not in his favor.

LOL.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump repair his relations with the Latino/Female/Muslim demographics? on: May 08, 2016, 09:23:26 pm
No with the exception Republican women, only of about half of whom support Trump.  As for the rest, the notion he can is flat-out foolish.
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