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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio is cracking on: Today at 12:30:24 am
Rubiobot sat on a wall
Rubiobot had a great fall
All the GOP horses and all the GOP men
Couldn't put Rubiobot together again.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders slams Obama: Obama hasn't closed "Leadership Gap" on: February 11, 2016, 08:27:35 pm
My take on this is that Sanders is reacting to the speech Obama gave yesterday:

Quote
He said that labels, such as "not a real progressive" -- which Sanders has used against Clinton -- are damaging to the national discourse.

"So when I hear voices in either party boast of their refusal to compromise as an accomplishment in and of itself, I'm not impressed," Obama said. "All that does is prevent what most Americans would consider actual accomplishments, like fixing roads, educating kids, passing budgets, cleaning our environment, making our streets safe."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-clinton-speech_us_56bb9af7e4b08ffac123b6bc

The speech was given the day after Sanders and Donald Trump won landslide victories in N.H.  It reads like thinly veiled praise of Hillary's campaign themes and equally thinly veiled criticism of Sanders.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's assistants may have ordered reporters to use certain sentences on: February 10, 2016, 11:00:18 pm
The Daily Caller.  How lovely, a right-wing site founded by Tucker Carlson.  Surely you could find better ways to waste time.

I don't think this was a RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY!!1!11. Gawker is very left wing/politically correct. I don't think they would work with the Daily Caller to fake anything.

Gawker is a gossip site.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's assistants may have ordered reporters to use certain sentences on: February 10, 2016, 10:48:34 pm
The Daily Caller.  How lovely, a right-wing site founded by Tucker Carlson.  Surely you could find better ways to waste time.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jay Carney: Obama wants Hillary to win on: February 10, 2016, 10:15:43 pm
Given President Obama's high approval ratings among Democrats and near-universal approval among African-Americans, this will have an impact.  It certainly doesn't hurt Clinton to have the favor of the most powerful elected official in the country.  Lower-ranking officials in the party and its affiliates have taken note of President Obama's preferences and acted accordingly.  It is no coincidence, for instance, that former Attorney General Eric Holder appeared in a TV ad in South Carolina endorsing Clinton:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/hillary-clinton-ad-eric-holder-218624

That said, it is probably wise for the President to not act too blatantly on his preferences.  If he got out there and began openly campaigning for Hillary during the primary, it would make it look like the White House was trying to bigfoot the situation and install Hillary's nomination via fiat.  The crucible of the presidential campaign is something every candidate has to walk on his or her own and no one knows that better than the President.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tonight is Bernie's campaign peak? Agree or Disagree? on: February 09, 2016, 01:34:05 pm
Sanders may have a decent performance in Nevada and keep his loss there narrow.  South Carolina will be painful for his campaign.  It is possible he might be able to win Minnesota and/or Colorado in addition to Vermont on Super Tuesday, but the seven southern states are basically auto-losses.  I don't see things getting better for him after that with Michigan, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina coming up later in the month.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chances to win the nomination (nationwide) on: February 09, 2016, 05:02:15 am
No clue about the Republican side.

Clinton 95%
Sanders 5%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillaryunleashes her latest watchdog - Bill Clinton - It is getting ugly on: February 09, 2016, 04:21:55 am
Bill Clinton has never been good a controlling his emotions and this appears to be a case of him going "off message."  I think he is just frustrated.

The writing has been on the wall in NH for some time but of course once Bernie wins the state the media pronouncements about Hillary's doom will intensify.  The Clinton Campaign should resist the urge to panic and wait for the contest to move into more favorable terrain.  Whether they can manage that is another question.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win? on: February 08, 2016, 02:39:26 am
Two African-American writers, Jonathan Capehart at the Washington Post and Eric Frazier at the Charlotte Observer, offer their opinions on why Sanders is struggling with black voters:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/02/03/no-bernie-sanders-is-not-barack-obama/

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/o-pinion/article58402848.html

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win? on: February 07, 2016, 11:53:46 pm
Sanders will of course win Vermont for certain and I'd say his chances of winning Minnesota are above 50%.  Colorado I'd guess is 50/50.  Mass. is unlikely but possible.  As for the southern states, lol no. 

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict NH Dem numbers on: February 07, 2016, 04:51:44 pm
Sanders 56
Clinton 44
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-debate: Who will be the leading Establishment candidate in NH? on: February 07, 2016, 04:22:15 pm
I don't think there will be one.  Rubio's gaffe was damaging but not campaign ending.  Prior to this he was starting to get a modest leg up on the rest of the establishment field.  The most likely result is that this rescrambles the establishment field with no clear leader, setting up an even longer protracted fight for who can be the establishment alternative to Trump and Cruz. 

My previous assumption had been at least one of the establishment candidates would drop out after New Hampshire.  I still think that will happen but it seems less likely now.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio implode? on: February 07, 2016, 05:36:11 am
At the risk of overcaution it is unclear at this point.  Rubio certainly hurt himself but it is unclear how much and where his support would go.  If his votes move to the other establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, Kasich) then he is badly hurt.  But if the support goes to Trump and/or Cruz, well, Rubio is somewhat weakened but it leaves the GOP establishment with no better options given the current low standing of Bush, Christie and Kasich. 
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Rubio been definitively exposed as a lightweight? on: February 07, 2016, 05:02:55 am
He's always been a lightweight. I'm glad Christie finally exposed him
Yeah, Republicans should be thankful that it was Christie that did it, and not Clinton.

Clinton is skilled and ruthless enough of a debater that she would have stuck a shiv right though that.  I would be laughing so hard.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio's gaffe: how bad is it? on: February 07, 2016, 04:38:30 am
On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being minor negligible damage and 10 being a career ending nuclear meltdown, I would put it at a 7.

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" gaffe become his "Oops" moment? on: February 07, 2016, 04:04:13 am
I do not think it is a bad as the "oops" moment.  Being exposed as mindlessly regurgitating talking points is certainly embarrassing, but not as bad as not even being able to REMEMBER them.

Make no mistake -- this is a painful self-inflicted blow to Rubio which is damaging to his chances.  But I would not describe it as career ending.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the MA primary a lock for Hillary? on: February 06, 2016, 06:09:05 pm
It isn't a lock for Clinton but I think Sanders will have a difficult time winning here.  While his regional advantage will help, the machine-like nature of MA probably more closely resembles PA than VT or NH.

The interesting wild card in this is that so far, Elizabeth Warren refuses to endorse either way:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/268161-female-senators-urge-warren-back-hillary
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are Latinos and African Americans so heavily in favor of Hillary? on: February 05, 2016, 03:19:30 am
I think Hillary's advantage over Bernie with regards to nonwhite voters stems from two things:

1.  As part of the Clinton Administration, she's been playing her fiddle in front of nonwhite political communities since the 1990s and has developed connections that go back decades.  She has many, many nonwhite politicians and officials endorsing her and is a known quantity in the institutions important in these communities.  She also represented New York -- a large diverse state where she had to walk a minefield of ethnic politics.  Making identity politics appeals has long been part of her pitch.  In contrast, Sanders has spent his entire career representing a nearly all-white state -- Vermont.  He has no practical experience representing Black, Asian or Latino populations and prior to this campaign was a virtual unknown in those political communities.

2.  Looking at African-American voters specifically, Hillary has been running as a steward of the Obama agenda and is widely known as a prominent former member of his cabinet.  Sanders has been running repudiating a significant portion of the Obama agenda (saying back in 2011 Obama should get a primary challenge from the left, associating with vitriolic Obama critic Cornel West, talking about replacing Obamacare, etc.).  I believe all this does not sit well with many black folks.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop using this as proof that Sanders will lose. on: February 03, 2016, 09:29:24 pm
This article had a good point about why Sanders is struggling with black voters vs. Clinton:

Quote
While Sanders would argue that he has a strong case to make to black voters about why they should support him, Clinton has ties to them that go back decades. And as a whole (and keep in mind that what I’m talking about doesn’t necessarily apply to any one individual even if it holds true for the group at large), African-Americans have a pragmatic view of politics. They had to fight — and some people even died — to secure the right to vote that whites always took for granted. They have to keep fighting to maintain that right in the face of a GOP that would put every impediment to the ballot it can find in front of them.

Ask anyone involved in Democratic politics about winning black votes in primaries, and they’ll tell you that it isn’t about hopes and dreams, though those are nice too. It’s about the nuts and bolts: the social networks, the key endorsers and officials, the neighborhood institutions, the systems that have been built up in the most trying circumstances to get people to the polls. Those kinds of factors are matter among every voting bloc, but they’re particularly important among African-Americans. You can’t blow into town a week before election day with a bunch of eager white 20-something volunteers from somewhere else and win their votes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump finished? on: February 02, 2016, 08:08:34 pm
Iowa with its large number of Christian conservatives in the GOP base was never the best fit for a blowhard like Trump.  Cruz comes much closer to fitting the profile of past winners (Huckabee, Santorum).  Independent-minded, more secular and less polite N.H. is a much better fit for Trump.  If he cannot win on the more favorable political terrain of the Granite State then I would agree he is finished.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Sanders win a contest other than NH and VT? on: February 02, 2016, 07:51:42 pm
Of the early states, Maine and Minnesota stand out as potentially good states for Sanders -- caucus states with a mostly white liberal Democratic base.  Colorado could be interesting.  Sanders independent streak may appeal there and polling suggests that it is a weak state for Hillary.

I would not write Massachusetts off entirely, but as LL mentioned it is a Democratic machine state.  I think a Sanders victory there would be unlikely.

22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll win the New Hampshire primaries? on: February 02, 2016, 07:40:15 pm
At this point, Sanders and Trump.  
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Sanders running as the anti-Obama candidate? on: February 01, 2016, 05:04:15 am
It would be more accurate to say that Sanders is attempting to evoke the insurgent spirit of Obama's 2008 campaign.  He cannot run as Obama's favored successor because that is clearly Clinton.

The interview Obama gave a week before the Iowa Caucus was a thinly-veiled endorsement of Clinton and an indirect diss of Sanders.

Quote
“Look, I’ve gotten to know Hillary Clinton really well, and she is a good, smart, tough person who cares deeply about this country ... she can govern, and she can start here, [on] day one, more experienced than any non-vice-president has ever been who aspires to this office.”

Quote
Well, there’s no doubt that Bernie has tapped into a running thread in Democratic politics that says: Why are we still constrained by the terms of the debate that were set by Ronald Reagan 30 years ago? You know, why is it that we should be scared to challenge conventional wisdom and talk bluntly about inequality and, you know, be full-throated in our progressivism? And, you know, that has an appeal and I understand that.

I think that what Hillary presents is a recognition that translating values into governance and delivering the goods is ultimately the job of politics, making a real-life difference to people in their day-to-day lives. I don’t want to exaggerate those differences, though, because Hillary is really idealistic and progressive.

Quote
“[The] one thing everybody understands is that this job right here, you don’t have the luxury of just focusing on one thing,”

Quote
When I asked him if Sanders reminded him of himself in 2008, he quickly shot me down: “I don’t think that's true.”

Sanders really owes no loyalty to Obama -- the two have not been close in the past.  Obama is obviously going to (quietly) favor the woman who once served as his Secretary of State over a politician who technically isn't even in the president's party.







24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post Selzer- Which Democrat wins the Iowa Caucus? on: January 31, 2016, 03:58:13 pm
Clinton.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-Selzer- Which Republican wins the Iowa caucus? on: January 31, 2016, 03:54:18 pm
Trump.
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