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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 on: September 19, 2014, 02:09:39 am
538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

Quote
We should be wary of these latest Quinnipiac surveys. Not only are the results the most Republican-friendly of the year in either state, but Quinnipiac’s polls have previously been too pro-Republican at this point in midterm elections. Its likely voter polls in 2010 had Republican Tom Foley up by 9 percentage points in the Connecticut gubernatorial race; he lost by a point. Quinnipiac had Democrat Andrew Cuomo up by just 6 points in the New York gubernatorial race; he won by 29 points. It had Republican John Kasich up by 17 points in the Ohio gubernatorial race; he won by just 2 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.


2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Vox Populi (R): Brown in the lead on: September 18, 2014, 07:44:02 pm
Fixed. Sorry. Yeah, Phil, you've figured me out Wink

Miles, thanks for your work entering all the polls.  I appreciate it.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: Gardner +1 on: September 17, 2014, 08:45:00 pm
People need to keep things in perspective and not panic.  This Suffolk poll has Gardner up by a single point.  The last poll Gardner led in was done by Quinnipiac back in July.  Since then Sen. Udall has led in seven polls.  Unless Suffolk is confirmed by multiple other pollsters this is just statistical noise.  I am still confident Sen. Udall will win reelection.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-colorado-senate-gardner-vs-udall
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP confirms that the race is Lean D on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:08 am
Hagan has made courting women voters, especially single women, the backbone of her campaign -- "heels on the ground" was what she called it -- and it shows, with a 49-33 edge among women, similar to what other polls have shown.  


A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

The Republican Party brand is also deeply unpopular nationally and while that may not matter much in solid Republican states, the swing states are a different story.  There is a reason why the races in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are trending in Democrats favor.  Gardner, Tillis and Ernst have records which are an ill fit for running in purple states.  Now that voters are being informed of those records they are not doing so well.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4% on: September 15, 2014, 01:22:02 am
That's the fourth poll so far this month which has Hagan winning.  There was also the Tillis internal which showed a tie.  The state of the race looks clear.


Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. Smiley

On a somewhat related note, at 538 they note that the Senate Democratic candidates in purple/swing states are "beating the national mood."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 14, 2014, 05:32:09 pm
You are flat out false.

lol.  We love you too and will remember you when the outcome of the NC Senate race is announced.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 11, 2014, 11:07:11 pm
If the GOP wins the Senate at 51-49 with all Obama states and NC going blue, that is simply not a GOP wave. Shows more weakness on the GOP side with northern whites.

I predicted the GOP would pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 Senate seats.  If they do have a net gain of 6, giving them 51 seats and the majority, I think the scenario you described is the most likely way it will happen.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 11, 2014, 11:01:49 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 

Credit for bringing up wrong predictions that aren't the usual ones mentioned here.

Points deduction for trying to shame me over a wrong prediction in a race that was within four points.

And the North Carolina Senate race isn't a close race?  Perhaps you think it isn't.

Did I say or even hint that it isn't close? I said a Tillis lead is confirmed. Doesn't mean it's a comfortably lead.

Let's review the most recent polls in this race -- the ones from Sept.

SUSA:  Hagan leads 46-43
Rasmussen:  Hagan leads 45-39
DSCC (Hagan internal):  Hagan leads 48-45
POS (Tillis internal):  Tie 44-44

Your statement that Tillis lead is confirmed is flat-out false. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: September 09, 2014, 10:35:27 pm

Land's refusal to debate strikes me as strange for conventional wisdom holds that the candidate who is trailing prefers to have more debates in the hope that something will happen to shake things up. 
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 09, 2014, 09:23:07 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 

Credit for bringing up wrong predictions that aren't the usual ones mentioned here.

Points deduction for trying to shame me over a wrong prediction in a race that was within four points.

And the North Carolina Senate race isn't a close race?  Perhaps you think it isn't.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: State of the Senate on: September 09, 2014, 09:20:49 pm
We know the GOP will gain Senate seats, the question is if it will be a moderate or significant gain.  I expect the GOP will pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 senate seats.

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 09, 2014, 09:09:49 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 09, 2014, 09:03:30 pm
Oh, you fools...

So question, as someone who just lurks here, why are you so disrespectful? If you were on any other forum you would have been banned a long time ago, I have no idea why they let such a rude person like you stay here and just be mean to everyone.


Yeah, that isn't selective bias as at all if you think my "rudeness" is any worse than the amount of Dems (and, yes, other Republicans but not as many) that make comments on these races, let alone ban worthy.

A bit of advice if you can't appreciate tongue-in-cheek commentary: keep lurking.



Some words of advice on my end then, tongue-in-cheek doesn't work on forums, it just makes you look like an ass.
I also think alot of people, of every color avatar, should be banned on this forum. I just think your probably the worst offender.
A quick google also brings up this:
ttp://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=190648.0

add an "h" to the beginning of the link, i cant post one.

Whatever, I'll go back to lurking. I come here for the polls anyway, not the terrible commentary.

Welcome to the forums Fusionmunster!
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Fitzgerald vs. Corbett on: September 08, 2014, 07:27:10 pm
Tom Corbett has a chance to win this election. In the latest poll, he gained a lot of ground. He's only 11 percent behind Wolf now. With a good showing in the debates he might turn the tide.

Huh
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg: 2014 = 2010, GOP gaining (at least) 7 seats on: September 08, 2014, 07:16:38 pm
It is strange that Rothenberg is making predictions which contradict his own analysis.  It frankly looks like a crass attempt to get attention.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: September 08, 2014, 06:55:43 pm
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is implicated in ethics scandal by former aide:

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2014/sep/08/former-mcmorris-rodgers-aide-says-scandal-investigation-expanding/

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/09/08/former-aide-for-cathy-mcmorris-rodgers-breaks-silence-on-ethics-case/
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Liz Warren shocks everyone who doesn't know her foreign policy. on: September 08, 2014, 01:28:00 am
I am not shocked.  The fact that Warren is a populist on domestic economic policy has no bearing on her foreign policy views.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Congressional candidates have you donated money to this cycle? on: September 07, 2014, 10:43:21 pm
I gave to the DSCC and Bruce Braley.  Guy Cecil did a good job heading the DSCC in 2012 so I have some confidence there.  Braley isn't my favorite candidate but I have little doubt he'd be a mainstream Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate and his opponent is extreme and unfit.  Most critically, if one is interested in making sure one's donation actually has an impact on the partisan makeup of the U.S. Senate, there is no doubt that Iowa is one of the closest Senate races in the country.  It is also an important swing state and I think a victory here will send a message for 2016.

19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 Model Debut: 64% Chance of Republican Majority; R+7 Most Likely on: September 07, 2014, 05:36:41 pm
Alaska could very easily slip through the same small-state hole in Silver's model that Montana and North Dakota fell through last time.

That was my thought as well.  Silver's forecast there is very incongruous with the polling data we have seen from Alaska.  Granted it is a hard state to poll, but still ...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Making your political donation count on: September 07, 2014, 05:03:34 pm
Yeah but the entire premise of the question is that you're more concerned about overall partisan control of Congress more than any specific race you might care about.

Right.  Obviously if the Colorado Senate race is most important to you, then you would give to Mark Udall or Cory Gardner before giving to the DSCC/NRSC.  My question was more for donors who are more concerned with the "big picture" of partisan control.  There are close races in every cycle but this year there seems to be more close Senate races than usual.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Making your political donation count on: September 07, 2014, 04:58:50 am
If you are interested in partisan control of the U.S. Senate and your funds are limited (i.e. you are a small donor), which do you think is the more effective political donation -- giving to individual candidates or giving to the DSCC/NRSC?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Could Rick Weiland (D-SD) become the Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) of 2014? on: September 06, 2014, 09:08:32 pm
No.  Weiland even accidentally referred to Mike Rounds as "senator."  Then he corrected himself -- "soon-to-be senator."  Embarrassed  To be honest, this is a race where we had a recruitment failure.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 06, 2014, 06:32:34 pm
A number of right-wingers both on this site and elsewhere predict a GOP pickup of 8 or 9 seats.  That reminds me of the overestimation of their Senate chances in 2012 which turned out disastrously wrong.  I don't think Senate Democrats will do as well as in 2012, but if the GOP picks up 4 or 5 seats -- which would be a good result by historical standards -- it's not going to look well next to their own overinflated predictions.

In terms of reading the tea leaves for 2016, most of the contested races this year are in conservative states.  Only a few could be described as swing states with opponents who are pretty evenly matched:  North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa.  In North Carolina, both Hagan and Tillis are average in terms of candidate strength.  Hagan has the advantage of incumbency, but the slight GOP lean in this swing state favors Tillis.  In Iowa, the race is for an open seat and both Braley and Ernst are flawed candidates (albeit for different reasons).  In Colorado, Gardner is a strong challenger and Mark Udall is a solid first-term incumbent.  Udall probably should narrowly win all other things being equal.  We'll see if he will.

24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 06, 2014, 05:02:29 pm
Orman's chances of actually winning are hard to say, but the real value here is that the GOP is now having to spend resources in what should have been an ultra-safe Senate seat in Kansas.  For vulnerable Democratic incumbents in other states, every little bit helps in such close races.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sen. Gillibrand: I was sexually harassed by men in Congress on: September 03, 2014, 09:29:52 pm
One of Gillibrand's Senate colleagues is not handling her announcement gracefully.

Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson:
Quote
“If you’re going to throw out accusations, my guess is you’d probably ought to name names,” Johnson, said of Gillibrand on The Steve Malzberg Show on NewsmaxTV Tuesday. “If you’re going throw out those kinds of accusations, you ought to give people a chance to explain themselves.”

Quote
Johnson said “it was not me” and “and I’ve never seen that kind of behavior in the United States Senate.”

“It’s actually a pretty collegial place. Pretty professional. I have never seen that type of behavior. That’s all I can say. That’s been my experience.”

“I wasn’t there, so I can’t express an opinion. I’ve just never witnessed any kind of comments like that myself,” Johnson added when asked if he doubted Gillibrand.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/gop-senator-on-gillibrand-claim-she-was-sexually-harassed-by#2q2w24m

Color me surprised that the right-wing male senator has never seen sexual harassment in the U.S. Senate.  Maybe he can mansplain this to Sen. Gillibrand just like he mansplained the budget to Sen. Baldwin.

In fact, it seems Mr. Johnson has a history of not "seeing" these things:

Quote
The senator, his chief of staff and a Waukesha County GOP official were told in 2011 about allegations that a woman then serving as an aide to the senator had been sexually assaulted by state Rep. Bill Kramer. They did not report the incident to police or legislative bodies, per the woman's wishes. According to the criminal complaint, she did not want to embarrass herself, her family or the Republican Party.
http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/jessie-opoien/ron-johnson-says-kirsten-gillibrand-should-name-names-in-sexual/article_6c7aed49-3d4b-5126-99c9-80565835f24f.html
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