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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thousands of Sanders Supporters take to the Streets in Philadelphia on: Today at 11:12:04 pm
LOL Republican b**ches, please.  Any fool can see through these transparent games.  It's funny how orgasmic you all are getting over these protests. Do we really need to list all the high-ranking Republicans refusing to attend the RNC this year?  The Republican Governor and Senator of Ohio would not even attend!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-skipping-rnc_us_578936aee4b08608d3347f70

Then there was the joke rollout of Pence, with Trump getting cold feet at the last minute trying to renege (such leadership!) and then running off the stage during Pence's rollout press conference.  Plus Melania's plagiarism of Michelle Obama of all people and Ted Cruz giving a non-endorsement speech in prime time which resulted in such a dangerous situation his wife had to be escorted out by security (lol).  If there was successful outreach to anyone outside your own nihilistic true believer Trumpettes during that cesspool convention I didn't see it.

So say whatever you like.  The more unified party usually wins and if you think that party is the GOP in 2016, I have a diploma at Trump University I'd like to sell to you.

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine vs. Pence VP debate discussion thread on: July 23, 2016, 03:13:12 am
I will just No-Doz and imagine what a Gingrich or Christie vs. Warren debate would have been like.

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 23, 2016, 02:09:03 am
MAKING AMERICA DEPRESSED AGAIN
MAKING AMERICA AFRAID AGAIN
MAKING AMERICA BORED AGAIN

FOR HEAVENS SAKE MAKE ME STOP TALKING BEFORE I KILL OUR CHANCES I CANNOT CONTROL MYSELF
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato updates Virginia rating post-Kaine on: July 23, 2016, 01:54:32 am
If this were any state but Virginia I would look at Sabato's prediction skeptically, but he is from Virginia and very familiar with Kaine and the state's political dynamics.  The demographics of Virginia are poorly suited to Trump due to the higher than average number of white voters with a college degree and growing nonwhite population.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kaine fatigue real? on: July 22, 2016, 01:38:13 am
He doesn't deserve this hate his own party is sending his way.

This usually happens to the perceived frontrunner for a nomination, whoever or whatever it is.  Supporters of other candidates try to undercut their status.  But that's assuming the nomination is actually desired, lol.  Not many people tried to undercut Merrick Garland or Mike Pence because frankly many perceived those nominations as a booby prize.  But Clinton's running mate is a highly desired position which is why no major Democratic politicians have taken themselves out of the running.  It happened to Sonia Sotomayor in 2009 as well -- a bunch of stories based on anonymous sources that she was a "bully" and "not that smart" etc.  Obama picked her anyway.

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Kaine considered so likely, a candidate for VP? on: July 22, 2016, 12:41:56 am
Given the leaked version of Trump's speech tonight, he's attacking Clinton for being establishment. Doesn't she need someone who's perceived as anti-establishment, or at least a little colorful, like Franken? Literally the only good things I've heard about him are that he speaks Spanish and he's a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even Bernie would be a better pick than Kaine.

Making a running mate selection based on a knee-jerk reaction to Donald Trump's attacks is foolish and not something I think Clinton would do.  She needs to consider who would best help her govern as President, with a secondary eye toward electoral concerns.  

Others have stated that Clinton is most concerned with someone who is most ready to step in as president if something should happen to her.  Kaine is a U.S. Senator (statewide federal experience) and former governor (statewide executive experience) of a major swing state.  He's also a former mayor (municipal-level executive experience) and DNC chair (Democratic party connections).  He sits on both the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees in the Senate (foreign policy credentials).  He's also a former lieutenant governor, so he even has experience being a No. 2.

Also, it appears Kaine is the choice of Democratic Party insiders.  Clinton is part and parcel of the Democratic Establishment, I think she is likely to go with the party consensus.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/tim-kaine-hillary-clinton-vp-insiders-225634  
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: WaPo:Kaine/Vilsack the frontrunners; NYT:announcement Saturday on: July 20, 2016, 01:04:46 am
Yeah, Kaine is definitely the wiser choice, by this point.

That was my thought.  Kaine is younger, a sitting U.S. Senator, has better foreign policy credentials, represents a diverse constituency in VA, speaks Spanish and is slightly more progressive.  If Vilsack is the pick, the Shirley Sherrod incident may not be very inspiring for African-American voters.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence: "Mulan" was a liberal conspiracy, women can't fight! on: July 19, 2016, 12:54:58 am
America has lost its mind on the military.

Whether it is good or bad for women, LGBTs, or anyone else to serve in forward areas in combat, I don't know.  But military service is not a RIGHT; it is a PRIVILEGE that ought to be granted solely on the basis of what our military leaders believe to be in the best interest of the defense of America.  We've gone a long way down another road, mostly as a result of political forces.  Time will tell if this is good for the defense of America.  This is, however, an issue where political correctness has very truly silenced much of the legitimate debate of the cost/benefits to our country regarding our policy on who will and won't be allowed to serve.

I......think that debate's already been settled, FB. Like literally about a decade ago.

The issue of women is combat roles is far from settled.  I don't think the Obama administration's policy allowing women to serve in combat roles changed until this year or late last year, not "a decade ago".  And why is it that long-standing conservative policies are always open for review, while liberal policies are always settled, anyway?

Women have been serving in combat roles on fighter jets (Air Force) and battleships (Navy) for more than a decade.  But in infantry they had previous been limited to combat support roles (combat medic, etc.).  It was this last barrier which has recently fallen.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does the Pence pick influence Clinton's running mate choice? on: July 19, 2016, 12:20:40 am
NYT's take is that the Pence pick leaves Clinton considerable room to maneuver on her own choice:

Quote
Mrs. Clinton still has internal Democratic Party politics to contend with, but Mr. Pence is a balm: He puts little if any added pressure on her.

Quote
Mark McKinnon, a key strategist on George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns, said Mr. Pence may have been a good choice for Mr. Trump, but his selection also benefited Mrs. Clinton.

“The choice does not cross-pressure her in any way with constituencies she needs,” Mr. McKinnon said. “It’s unlikely that any alarms are going off at Clinton headquarters. So it leaves her free to hit the snooze button with an equally safe choice.”

Quote
More than anything, she is looking to make a careful and responsible choice, her advisers say.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/19/us/politics/hilary-clinton-vice-president.html?_r=0
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Kaine lockdown VA for Clinton? on: July 18, 2016, 01:07:01 am
A Kaine selection moves Virginia from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does the Pence pick influence Clinton's running mate choice? on: July 18, 2016, 12:22:01 am
A USA Today column on July 17th argues  the Pence pick makes a Kaine pick more feasible:

Quote
[The Pence pick] may allow Clinton to worry less about teaming with a progressive firebrand in favor of someone with governing experience who appeals to independent voters and more socially liberal Republicans, the strategists say. Kaine, for instance, is a former governor, lieutenant governor and Richmond mayor.

Quote
“Trump is moving to the right, and that leaves a lot of room for Hillary to pick Tim Kaine,” said Joe Trippi.  "In a general election campaign, you pick a VP who can expand your support (or fill out a résumé), not narrowly satisfy your base."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/17/pence-trump-clinton-kaine-running-mate/87217604/
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is this election similar to 1968? on: July 18, 2016, 12:08:10 am
Donald Trump 2016 is George Wallace 1968 if Wallace actually had gotten the nomination.  The racism and xenophobia are very similar.

Hillary Clinton 2016 is Hubert Humphrey 1968 in this scenario.  Both had very strong support from the Democratic Establishment but were weighed down with political baggage.  

Bernie Sanders 2016 is Eugene McCarthy 1968, protesting economic injustice instead of the Vietnam War.  Both were outsider candidates highly popular with younger voters.  But a major difference is that Sanders has endorsed Clinton while McCarthy never did endorse Humphrey.  

And Barack Obama 2016 is President Lyndon Johnson 1968, another outgoing Democratic President trying to usher his preferred successor (Hillary Clinton/Humphrey) into the White House.  But in a key difference from 1968, Obama's job approvals are solid, while LBJ was political rat poison due to the war.

Because of the endorsement from Sanders which Humphrey never got from McCarthy and Obama's better political standing compared to LBJ, Hillary Clinton 2016 is in a considerably better position than Humphrey was in 1968.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How well will Trump do with the gays? on: July 16, 2016, 03:02:47 pm
Prior to the Pence selection I thought Trump might be able to get into the high 20s with the LGBT vote.  Post Pence, low 20s is more like it.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does the Pence pick influence Clinton's running mate choice? on: July 16, 2016, 01:37:44 pm
She's going to pick some boring liberal.

Tim Kaine?  Though some on this site might say he isn't liberal.  I suppose the argument would be that because Trump chose someone with considerable experience but low wattage, Clinton should do the same.  Steady leadership is supposed to be her brand and an inexperienced pick like Castro would create a bad contrast with Pence.

Sherrod Brown would fit the bill, but Clinton would be foolish to surrender a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio with a Supreme Court vacancy at stake.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How does the Pence pick influence Clinton's running mate choice? on: July 16, 2016, 01:14:14 pm
Hillary Clinton had the advantage of watching who Trump selected as a running mate first.  Now that we know that it is Pence, how does his nomination influence her own selection?

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump announces Pence will be his running mate -- discussion thread on: July 16, 2016, 11:32:42 am
This official rollout press conference is a train wreck

Details?

1. Trump rambled on for 25 minutes about largely irrelevant things, barely mentioning Pence and barely promoting him
2. Mocked Pence's Cruz endorsement
3. Introduced Pence
4. Immediately left stage and couldn't stand to be seen with Pence

Between the leak that Pence was the pick followed by an announcement that the pick was being delayed, followed by more leaks that Trump was hesitating about picking Pence and now this joke of a press conference, Trump's entire VP rollout has been a disaster, whatever one thinks of the Pence pick on the merits.  

The Trump Campaign is the biggest sham of a general election campaign I have ever seen in my life.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How stoked are you for the "Night of Benghazi" at the GOP convention? on: July 15, 2016, 07:03:54 pm
A hypothetical RNC schedule:

Night 1:  Benghazi über alles, the musical
Night 2:  Bill Clinton porno movie/slut shaming festival
Night 3:  Cross and book burning night
Night 4:  Donald Trump accepts the nomination and burns a giant effigy of Hillary Clinton with a Lesbian Latina Muslim trapped inside as a sacrifice, a la The Wicker Man.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How stoked are you for the "Night of Benghazi" at the GOP convention? on: July 15, 2016, 12:23:07 am
This is how Republicans have to fill time because they are stuck with a bunch of political C and D list losers as many of the major players don't want to attend a convention which might as well be "Night of the Titanic."

Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist not supporting Trump says:

Quote
Republicans have always had a terrible star-power deficit — the Democrats have the latest hip-hop or pop act and we’ve got Lee Greenwood and the Oak Ridge Boys — but now it’s going to be even more pronounced.  Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren — they’re all going to be out there swinging for the fences. But the Republicans, it’ll be like a hostage video of people forced on stage.

'On Earth 2,' you’d be showing the Republican Party isn’t this stupid white boys’ club. But Donald Trump has rejected everybody who’s not in the stupid white boys’ club. At this point, we might as well have a giant cross burning out front."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-promises-showbiz-at-convention-but-stars-on-stage-will-be-relatively-dim/2016/07/13/2e28d14e-4453-11e6-bc99-7d269f8719b1_story.html

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump meeting with Sen GOP goes about as well as you'd expect on: July 07, 2016, 09:49:19 pm
So here we have Trump calling a Republican senator a "loser" and telling another that he will ensure that the senator will lose his reelection bid, all the while claiming he will carry Illinois.  Trump is unprepared, unfit and unhinged.  If this is how Trump interacts with members of his own party, imagine him in diplomatic relations with foreign leaders.  This is someone who will ruin our alliances, our place in the global economy and our standing in the world.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Corker and Ernst withdraw on: July 07, 2016, 09:25:33 pm
Take note of the fact that the better quality GOP VP candidates have largely declined to run with Trump, which suggests that they (correctly) see the nomination a booby prize.  Trump is left with a bunch of political C and D-listers who have little to nothing to lose.  LOL, no one worthwhile wants to run with him.  This is reminiscent of George McGovern, who was rejected by a number of Democrats when he asked them to join the ticket.

In contrast, I know of no prominent Democratic politician who has issued a Shermanesque statement about joining the ticket with Hillary Clinton.

21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Nate Cohn: the biggest danger for Trump: Florida on: July 07, 2016, 08:35:57 pm
Quote
If demographics are destiny, Donald Trump’s political fate could very well be sealed in Florida.

Quote
The early polls show Mrs. Clinton with a consistent advantage.

Quote
Mr. Trump is losing among Hispanic voters in Florida by a 30-point margin, up from Mr. Romney’s 22-point deficit in similar estimates of 2012. (The estimates are based on a combination of pre-election polling, election results and demographic data.)

Quote
Mrs. Clinton appears to be running ahead of Mr. Obama among older and Southern white voters, reversing the one trend that has helped Republicans over the last decade.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/upshot/the-biggest-danger-for-donald-trump-florida.html?_r=1

22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump the worst candidate ever? on: July 06, 2016, 09:48:20 pm
If we talking about all presidential candidates, no.  But in terms of those who have become a major party nominee, Trump has to be among the very worst and probably is THE worst.  Trump's general election campaign is at least George McGovern 1972 level incompetent.  The only reason he won't lose that bad is because of the extreme political polarization these days.  By rights Trump should lose in a 1972 style landslide.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would a "bad" Clinton presidency look like? on: July 02, 2016, 03:17:00 am
Clinton's biggest political weaknesses include her penchant for secrecy and difficulty adjusting when changing circumstances snarl her carefully crafted plans.  These were contributing factors to the failure of Hillarycare in 1994.  If unforseen circumstances cause her to lapse into the bunker mentality and hatching secret schemes it bodes ill for her presidency.

As a Clinton supporter I feel compelled to offer the counter argument.  No one has deeper experience with the federal bureaucracy.  She has a relentless drive get something accomplished.  If there is a way to wring progressive gains out of the system she will find it, even in this era of extreme polarization.  Unlike Obama she will be a consistently tough negotiator with Republicans.  Her presidency will not be undone by a lack of resolve.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is there a position for Trump in Hillary's White House? on: July 01, 2016, 02:04:03 am
Yes.  She will mount his scalp in the Oval Office.
That explains why Liz Warren is her running mate.

If Trump is beaten by two women we will mount his limp manhood in the Oval Office as well.
That should make things clearer for you.
I recognized the Indian joke the first time.  I just don't care about it.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and the GOP continue to make useful idiots of the Sanders children on: July 01, 2016, 01:07:16 am
I think Sanders has made a political miscalculation, at least if he hoped to increase his influence with a future Democratic Administration.  He should have endorsed Clinton weeks ago if that was the case.  Instead he spent the time dithering and Elizabeth Warren stepped into the breach.  Since she and Sanders occupy a similar space ideologically and she has such a high media profile, Clinton has turned to her.  The credit for unifying the base should have been Sanders and now it will likely go to Warren instead.  And whether Warren gets chosen as the running mate or not, she will reap the political benefits of this. 
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