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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 10, 2014, 11:30:34 pm
IA and CO (Obama states) plus AK (As Begich has the superior ground game).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 10, 2014, 04:11:20 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  

Yes. Next question...

It will be highly amusing if you wind up backtracking like you did on North Carolina.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: POS: Hagan leads...in Tillis internal on: October 10, 2014, 04:08:43 am

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: SUSA: Orman +5 on: October 08, 2014, 03:58:47 am
Only 5%? Yeah, Pat has the W.

Are you going to call us "fools" again if we think otherwise, just like with Tillis/Hagan?  I wonder who is doing better in that race these days ...
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: October 08, 2014, 03:43:08 am

Am I the only one who finds this soundbite incredibly sexist and offensive?
Especially coming from (I assume) a white guy.

Hopefully this incident will simply work in favor of Udall.  Suburban women are the key swing demographic in this state.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most likely CO/KS result on: October 08, 2014, 01:57:05 am
Udall wins, Roberts loses.

I would say the tighter question is between Roberts and the open seat in Iowa. 
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa? on: September 27, 2014, 02:08:12 pm
Braley.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 26, 2014, 01:29:08 am
One other name I might throw out there is Martin O'Malley.  If he does in fact run for President, look for Clinton to shrewdly assess how he handles the white heat of a national race and the media vetting process.  If he shows strong candidate skills, no big skeletons emerge and he doesn't go too negative on her, he might very well get serious consideration.  He's compiled a considerable record as governor of Maryland and the base will like him. 
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 03:18:33 am
If Gillibrand were selected I would assume Clinton would run as a Washington D.C. resident, as she does maintain a home there.  This issue has come up before.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122289
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 25, 2014, 01:48:05 am
My guess is that Clinton will put a high value on executive and/or legislative accomplishment.

I would agree with the consensus here that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are the two obvious choices.  They would be relatively safe picks and Clinton is known for caution.  Both are former governors/current senators of a key swing state.  And Gov. Terry McAuliffe would appoint a successor in the Senate so no trouble there.  Warner has stronger political standing in Virginia but also carries more political baggage than Kaine.

My problem with a Sherrod Brown pick, although I like him a great deal, is that Gov. Kasich is likely to win reelection this November and would appoint his successor. 

If Clinton is willing to take a risk (doubtful) then I would say the best choices would be either Julian Castro or Kirsten Gillibrand.  Gillibrand has developed a solid record in the Senate, has gotten some media buzz and I suspect she would love to run nationally.  Clinton places a high value on loyalty and Gillibrand has been loyal from the start (she cut her teeth in politics working on Hillary's 2000 Senate campaign).  Her work for women's rights would reinforce Clinton's message, similar to what Bill did with Al Gore in '92.

I'm less familiar with Castro's record.  From what I've seen he has huge potential and the demographic appeal is obvious.  But I'm not sure he'll have had enough time to develop his credentials.




11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I don't understand the Jim Webb potential candidacy on: September 24, 2014, 09:41:07 pm
I don't understand it either.  He quit after one term and reportedly hated/was terrible at retail politics.  Has he somehow picked up a taste for retail politics since he retired?  Otherwise Iowa and New Hampshire will go badly. 
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pat Roberts: Our country is headed for national socialism on: September 23, 2014, 10:36:57 pm
Quote
That's not right. Changing the culture, changing what we're all about.

I've seen this dog whistle countless times before from right-wing politicians.  I think many fellow people of color and LGBT recognize it.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Arkansas? on: September 23, 2014, 08:36:30 pm
Cotton.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 on: September 19, 2014, 02:09:39 am
538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

Quote
We should be wary of these latest Quinnipiac surveys. Not only are the results the most Republican-friendly of the year in either state, but Quinnipiac’s polls have previously been too pro-Republican at this point in midterm elections. Its likely voter polls in 2010 had Republican Tom Foley up by 9 percentage points in the Connecticut gubernatorial race; he lost by a point. Quinnipiac had Democrat Andrew Cuomo up by just 6 points in the New York gubernatorial race; he won by 29 points. It had Republican John Kasich up by 17 points in the Ohio gubernatorial race; he won by just 2 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.


15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Vox Populi (R): Brown in the lead on: September 18, 2014, 07:44:02 pm
Fixed. Sorry. Yeah, Phil, you've figured me out Wink

Miles, thanks for your work entering all the polls.  I appreciate it.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: Gardner +1 on: September 17, 2014, 08:45:00 pm
People need to keep things in perspective and not panic.  This Suffolk poll has Gardner up by a single point.  The last poll Gardner led in was done by Quinnipiac back in July.  Since then Sen. Udall has led in seven polls.  Unless Suffolk is confirmed by multiple other pollsters this is just statistical noise.  I am still confident Sen. Udall will win reelection.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-colorado-senate-gardner-vs-udall
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP confirms that the race is Lean D on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:08 am
Hagan has made courting women voters, especially single women, the backbone of her campaign -- "heels on the ground" was what she called it -- and it shows, with a 49-33 edge among women, similar to what other polls have shown.  


A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

The Republican Party brand is also deeply unpopular nationally and while that may not matter much in solid Republican states, the swing states are a different story.  There is a reason why the races in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are trending in Democrats favor.  Gardner, Tillis and Ernst have records which are an ill fit for running in purple states.  Now that voters are being informed of those records they are not doing so well.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4% on: September 15, 2014, 01:22:02 am
That's the fourth poll so far this month which has Hagan winning.  There was also the Tillis internal which showed a tie.  The state of the race looks clear.


Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. Smiley

On a somewhat related note, at 538 they note that the Senate Democratic candidates in purple/swing states are "beating the national mood."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 14, 2014, 05:32:09 pm
You are flat out false.

lol.  We love you too and will remember you when the outcome of the NC Senate race is announced.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 11, 2014, 11:07:11 pm
If the GOP wins the Senate at 51-49 with all Obama states and NC going blue, that is simply not a GOP wave. Shows more weakness on the GOP side with northern whites.

I predicted the GOP would pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 Senate seats.  If they do have a net gain of 6, giving them 51 seats and the majority, I think the scenario you described is the most likely way it will happen.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 11, 2014, 11:01:49 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 

Credit for bringing up wrong predictions that aren't the usual ones mentioned here.

Points deduction for trying to shame me over a wrong prediction in a race that was within four points.

And the North Carolina Senate race isn't a close race?  Perhaps you think it isn't.

Did I say or even hint that it isn't close? I said a Tillis lead is confirmed. Doesn't mean it's a comfortably lead.

Let's review the most recent polls in this race -- the ones from Sept.

SUSA:  Hagan leads 46-43
Rasmussen:  Hagan leads 45-39
DSCC (Hagan internal):  Hagan leads 48-45
POS (Tillis internal):  Tie 44-44

Your statement that Tillis lead is confirmed is flat-out false. 
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate Debates Discussion Thread on: September 09, 2014, 10:35:27 pm

Land's refusal to debate strikes me as strange for conventional wisdom holds that the candidate who is trailing prefers to have more debates in the hope that something will happen to shake things up. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 09, 2014, 09:23:07 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 

Credit for bringing up wrong predictions that aren't the usual ones mentioned here.

Points deduction for trying to shame me over a wrong prediction in a race that was within four points.

And the North Carolina Senate race isn't a close race?  Perhaps you think it isn't.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: State of the Senate on: September 09, 2014, 09:20:49 pm
We know the GOP will gain Senate seats, the question is if it will be a moderate or significant gain.  I expect the GOP will pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 senate seats.

25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 09, 2014, 09:09:49 pm
Oh, you fools...

No more foolish than predicting Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin would lose their Senate races in 2012. 
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