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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why would any Obama voter either support Trump, or not vote? on: September 28, 2016, 09:15:44 pm
While it's true that Obama led comfortably throughout most of the 2008 cycle, there were a few weeks after the Palin selection (early to mid September) when McCain led in the polls.  In 2012, Obama's lead over Romney in the polls was narrow the large majority of the time.  And for about two weeks after the first debate, the race dropped into a tie.  You should have seen the Democratic panic in both cases.



2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: September 25, 2016, 04:49:21 pm
The Republican Party has nominated a candidate who is abysmally unqualified to serve as president.  He is a complete ignoramus on policy and shown no inclination to learn, he cozies up to foreign dictators and invites them to interfere in our election, he has the temperament of a petty tyrant, his business practices are a garbage trail of people who feel they got cheated and ruined, the blatancy and frequency of his lies are unprecedented for a major party nominee, he plays to bigotry and continually demonizes nonwhites, women and religious minorities, even those who are Gold Star parents.  This should be pointed out as loudly as possible but instead the $h*t media has been intent on making Hillary look as bad as Trump so they can have the horserace and ratings they desire.  The fact she has done the hard work of coming up with numerous policy plans and gaining the necessary knowledge and preparation for the presidency is ignored so they can write the 1,000,000th story about her emails.  Her opponent offers nothing other than some nonsense about how "I alone can fix it." 

If Republicans/Trump supporters don't like the negative coverage of him, perhaps you should have thought twice before you nominated an unqualified, bigoted ignoramus that gave us such an easy target.  And now you whine like babies when this is pointed out.  Pathetic.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Breaking: George H.W. Bush to vote for Hillary on: September 20, 2016, 12:01:37 am
I won't pretend this is some great endorsement, but from a historical perspective it is extraordinary.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton outdoing Trump in Pennsylvania, a must win state on: September 19, 2016, 01:38:05 am
http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-09-18/clinton-outdoing-trump-in-pennsylvania-a-must-win-state
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can you Democrats please stop panicking? on: September 19, 2016, 12:44:07 am
I just looked at a graph from Real Clear Politics website, and since April, Hillary has been steadily going down hill -- with some increases and decreases -- and Trump has been steadily climbing up hill to the point where now they are completely tied in the polls.

If that ain't grounds for panicking I don't know what is.

This is the first election I've followed with any interest, so I'm not used to any precedents set in the past. This is pretty nerve-wracking for me.

Her dip is hardly unusual.  Consider --

In 2008 Republicans were carrying the massive albatross of George W. Bush and his 30% approval ratings.  Obama maintained a comfortable lead over McCain through June, July and most of August.  But look what happened at the start of September -- McCain seized the lead.  This was shortly after he had chosen Sarah Palin as a running mate.  We know that Palin proved to be a disaster over the long term, but in the three weeks following her selection she appeared to push McCain into the lead.  And let me tell you, the panic among Democrats was intense.  What this thread reminds me of was in 2008 a Democrat on this board tried to calm the panicked by posting a picture of Obama with the text "Everyone chill the F**k out!  I got this."  By the end of September Obama had recovered his lead and the rest is history.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


In 2012 the dip came a little later.  Throughout the campaign Obama had been holding on to a small but steady lead in the polls.  Then, on Oct. 3, he turned in a bad performance during the first debate.  Suddenly, the large majority of polls showed a tied race, with a few even showing Romney leading.  Once again Democrats went into panic mode.  The polling dip persisted for two weeks until Obama rebounded with a strong performance in the second debate, leading Romney into a trap over statements Obama had made about terrorism.  "Please proceed, governor" became one of the classic lines of that election.  

I've been around a long time and seen this panic before.


Yeah but....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrZwEc3t1fs

So?  Trump is still behind.  I'm not sure why you should have confidence given that conservatives have clearly lost the last two presidential elections and never established a clear lead in this one.  I certainly wouldn't be placing bets on a bigoted, ignorant gaffe machine who has never done a one-on-one debate before.  Clinton has done about a dozen.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can you Democrats please stop panicking? on: September 18, 2016, 10:54:24 pm
I just looked at a graph from Real Clear Politics website, and since April, Hillary has been steadily going down hill -- with some increases and decreases -- and Trump has been steadily climbing up hill to the point where now they are completely tied in the polls.

If that ain't grounds for panicking I don't know what is.

This is the first election I've followed with any interest, so I'm not used to any precedents set in the past. This is pretty nerve-wracking for me.

Her dip is hardly unusual.  Consider --

In 2008 Republicans were carrying the massive albatross of George W. Bush and his 30% approval ratings.  Obama maintained a comfortable lead over McCain through June, July and most of August.  But look what happened at the start of September -- McCain seized the lead.  This was shortly after he had chosen Sarah Palin as a running mate.  We know that Palin proved to be a disaster over the long term, but in the three weeks following her selection she appeared to push McCain into the lead.  And let me tell you, the panic among Democrats was intense.  What this thread reminds me of was in 2008 a Democrat on this board tried to calm the panicked by posting a picture of Obama with the text "Everyone chill the F**k out!  I got this."  By the end of September Obama had recovered his lead and the rest is history.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


In 2012 the dip came a little later.  Throughout the campaign Obama had been holding on to a small but steady lead in the polls.  Then, on Oct. 3, he turned in a bad performance during the first debate.  Suddenly, the large majority of polls showed a tied race, with a few even showing Romney leading.  Once again Democrats went into panic mode.  The polling dip persisted for two weeks until Obama rebounded with a strong performance in the second debate, leading Romney into a trap over statements Obama had made about terrorism.  "Please proceed, governor" became one of the classic lines of that election.  

I've been around a long time and seen this panic before.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Don't Hate Millennials. Save It For Bernie Sanders. on: September 16, 2016, 01:36:30 am
I don't think it is true that Sanders is doing "hardly anything" for Clinton.  He campaigned for her recently in N.H. and is set to do it again this weekend in Ohio.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-will-1473950412-htmlstory.html

Henster is unsurprisingly smearing Clinton supporters as "already blaming" Bernie for the loss.  Bitter much?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "basket of deplorables" Hillary's 47% moment? on: September 10, 2016, 01:09:15 pm
Actually it is just an act of message discipline, as it fits into a campaign narrative she was already pushing publicly.  Clinton cannot be accused of saying one thing about the bigotry of Trump's supporters in public and something entirely different in private.  It also has the benefit of being true.  You can't say any of that about Romney's comments.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton: Half of Trump’s supporters fit in ‘basket of deplorables’ on: September 10, 2016, 12:56:54 pm
Clinton is playing divide and conquer with Trump's supporters:

Quote
"To just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up.

But the other basket — and I know this because I see friends from all over America here … but that other basket are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures — they're just desperate for change. … Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well."

We already know there is a significant portion of Trump supporters who are flat-out bigots and support him because he crassly amplifies their bigotry.  She wasn't winning those votes in any case.  She's aiming for continued media coverage about the bigotry of Trump and some of his supporters.  Unlike Romney's 47% comment, this fits into a campaign narrative she was already publicly pushing, as we can see by her "Alt-Right" speech.  She just never put a number on it before.  One cannot say Clinton was saying one thing in public and something entirely different in private.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the Commander in Chief forum? on: September 09, 2016, 12:44:44 am
I know who lost it:  Matt Lauer.

Matt, honey, you better keep your day job.  You're not ready for prime time.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Asked if Obama was born in the US, Trump refuses to answer on: September 05, 2016, 06:18:47 pm
But of course we will have to continue to listen to right-wing drivel that their opposition to Obama is not race-based.  LOL.  Frankly, I think one reason many Latino and Asian-Americans identify with Obama is because we know what it is like to labor under the insidious suggestion that we do not belong here.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win? - September 2016 on: September 05, 2016, 01:06:01 am
Clinton will win easily.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Michael Savage: President Trump should rule by decree, violate civil rights on: September 03, 2016, 02:46:19 am
Civil liberties go out the door when the survival of our republic is at stake.  It happened in WWII under Roosevelt.  I am sure it has happened other times.
Once again, Savage says something that is really not as extreme as it sounds.  In fact, it is really common sense


My father and his family were forced to go to one of those internment camps in Minidoka.  They were only allowed to take what they could carry with them.  None of them had voiced support for Japan in the war.  It wasn't common sense, it was bull$**t and rightly regarded today as racism, a grotesque violation of civil rights and a stain on Roosevelt's legacy -- at least outside of the radical right bubble.

My uncles joined the 442nd in WW II.  Clearly, they understood more about patriotic sacrifice than you do.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump will nake a major speech on immigration in Arizona on Wednesday. on: September 01, 2016, 10:16:51 pm
Well color me surprised.  Trump went full George Wallace in Arizona and the white racists on this board and elsewhere are getting tingles up their leg.  Have fun losing in November.  You deserve it.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Campaign dominating Trump's at an organizational level on: August 31, 2016, 02:25:57 am
I don't comprehend why most of Trump's campaign offices are in Wisconsin and Virginia.  Those states are already lost.

See, the thing is, even if Trump doesn't win, if he can keep it close then can we really deem the Trump campaign as an abject failure? It'd basically be testament (albeit isolated) that you don't need a campaign to be as complex and organized as it recently has become to be competitive, which would probably change the way political campaigns are run for elections to come.

Right now the race isn't close.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton Campaign dominating Trump's at an organizational level on: August 31, 2016, 02:17:34 am
In the air: 

Quote
Even with Donald Trump's latest advertising buys, Hillary Clinton's campaign is still outspending him by a 10-to-1 margin over the airwaves.

The Clinton camp has spent more than $75 million on ads in the general election, while Trump's campaign - which aired its first general-election ad on Aug. 19 - has now spent $7.7 million,
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-still-outspending-trump-10-1-airwaves-n639981


And on the ground:

Quote
As the presidential election marathon breaks into a final sprint, the Trump campaign faces a jaw-dropping gap in the ground game: Hillary Clinton currently has more than three times the number of campaign offices in critical states than does Donald Trump.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/trump-campaign-has-ground-game-problem/
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary pays her full taxes...does Trump? on: August 30, 2016, 10:34:22 pm
Trump is a tax-dodging crook.  He's welcome to prove me wrong by actually releasing all of his tax returns.  But of course he won't, because they are full of nasty stuff.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats, which GOP ticket did you fear the most? on: August 30, 2016, 10:25:09 pm
To have done better in the Republican Primary Kasich and Rubio would have had to take much more extreme positions and rhetoric from the start, like Trump and Cruz, as opposed to trying to co-opt them later when the fakeness of such a move was transparent to everyone.  And that would have hugely damaged their general election appeal.  That's what happened to Mitt Romney in 2012 and it is the Catch-22 the GOP finds itself in.

I also find it highly unlikely that nominee Rubio would have been allowed to pick a mainstream running mate like Kasich given the radical nature of the GOP base.  He would probably have been forced to make a Cruz or Pence-like pick.  That would have left Ohio very much in play although Clinton would be locked out of Florida in such a scenario.  

Perhaps they will come back in 2020 and try again.  But it will be much harder to defeat Clinton once she is an incumbent president.

19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Carlos Danger at it again on: August 30, 2016, 12:13:37 am
Sad!
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Trump's appeal in IA and OH? on: August 30, 2016, 12:09:50 am
Both states have large numbers of whites with no college degree, which is Trump's demographic wheelhouse.  Both states have strong protectionist attitudes.  Iowa has a very small number of nonwhite voters and the Iowa Republican Establishment has embraced Trump.

I would separate the two states insofar as I doubt Trump will win Ohio -- there's a decent sized nonwhite demographic there and Kasich and Portman are giving Trump the cold shoulder.  But I think Trump has a solid chance to win Iowa.  Clinton has never showed any real strength in her primary performances there, whereas she looked strong in Ohio both in 2008 and 2016.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I just cannot fathom an Obama 12/trump 16 voter. (and they exist) on: August 28, 2016, 07:32:42 pm
They certainly make far less sense than Romney '12/Clinton '16 voters, who I believe are a considerably larger group.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Southside with You: a movie about Barack and Michelle's first date in 1989 on: August 28, 2016, 07:12:55 pm
Starring Tika Sumpter and Parker Sawyers and Michelle and Barack Obama.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/movies/tika-sumpter-southside-with-you-michelle-obama.html?_r=0

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zaki-hasan/interview-tika-sumpter--p_b_11737562.html

http://www.southsidewithyou.com/
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will control the Senate after 2018? on: August 27, 2016, 01:14:37 am
Republicans will.  But we will get it back in 2020.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should Hillary renominate Garland on: August 26, 2016, 10:26:34 pm
Only if Republicans still control the Senate, which I doubt.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine "Trump represents KKK Values" on: August 26, 2016, 09:53:53 pm
Tim Kaine spent his career as a lawyer trying to protect us from people like Donald Trump.  If I was alive in the early 1970s I doubt I would have been able to rent an apartment that was under Trump Management.
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