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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538: The GOPís Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill on: August 16, 2016, 01:18:23 pm
In the end, all but maybe two or so of the competitive Senate races will break to the Dems (if I had to guess, AZ and OH will be the two seats the GOP keeps). Dems are looking at a net gain of 8-10 right now.

lol

8 is very possible. Contested races tend to all break in the same direction.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way? on: August 16, 2016, 01:04:22 pm
Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Say something nice about the other party's nominee on: August 15, 2016, 10:21:26 pm
I did this in 2008 between Obama and McCain. I forgot to do one in 2012.

If you're backing Clinton, write something nice about Trump.

If you're backing Trump, write something nice about Clinton.

It's a good reminder that we're all fundamentally on the same team.

I like Donald Trump's commitment to repairing and rebuilding American relationships with Russia, which have been rough for over a century now. This takes incredible courage from a Republican Party nominee.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Millennial Voters (Clinton v Trump "Feels Like a Joke") on: August 14, 2016, 03:50:39 pm
2016 is also the last election where, by any serious definition, the youngest voters are millennials. (I've always used 1983-2000 births so that Gen X can extend 1965-1983 rather than just 16 years, but others are doing 1981-2000 and that's fine as well).

Of course, like with any "generational cohort," there's a huge difference between someone in his/her early 30s today and someone in his/her late teens today in terms of what events are critical to shaping their worldviews. The youngest voters today are too young to remember 9/11 or the decision to go to war in Iraq, older Millennials had those as the defining political battles of their coming of ages. Not to mention the huge difference between those out of college and in the workforce when the 2008 crash hit and those still in college or high school at the time.

It's also interesting to me that this "generational conflict," when it's brought up, is framed as Baby Boomers vs Millennials. No one cares about the Gen Xers, apparently.
5  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: August 12, 2016, 08:38:37 pm
I don't think the existence or nonexistence of God is particularly critical or even all that important to the survival of religions. I'm not sure that such a proof would really fundamentally change much at all.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Trump end up with a higher raw vote total than Mitt Romney? on: August 09, 2016, 12:04:00 am
60,934,407 is the over/under here.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Gore '00/Kerry '04/ Obama '08&'12/Trump '16 voter on: August 08, 2016, 11:13:42 pm
A pretty typical working-class White Democrat who's "had enough". I think there will be quite a few such voters.

Most of that type of voter already defected and voted Romney in 2012. Remember, this is someone who voted for Kerry over Bush and then voted for Obama...twice.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce) on: July 30, 2016, 10:50:08 am
I think the "don't trust a polling firm no one has ever heard of before" rule applies in this case.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Clinton interviews Castro, Hickenlooper, Warren on: July 16, 2016, 02:13:22 pm
A good dark horse VP choice would be former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. He's Hispanic, but more qualified than Castro, Perez, and Becerra. He has good foreign policy experience and he governed a state. Plus, the Clintons should put the 2008 endorsement of Obama behind them.

isn't he, like, corrupt as heck, though?

Yeah, there are some issues there.

Yeah, a little, but he's experienced. He could be ready to be president on Day One.

Clinton's not picking a washed-up has-been who has been out of public life for five years and is nearly as old as she is.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's more important: democracy, or liberalism/secularism? on: July 16, 2016, 01:08:58 am
The Turkish military may be secular, but it sure as hell isn't liberal by any functional definition, as the periods of time in which Turkey was under military rule in living memory can demonstrate. Kemalism is actually a pretty scary doctrine.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump? on: July 14, 2016, 11:33:44 pm
A year ago today? No.

11 months ago today? Yes.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA on: July 14, 2016, 11:32:45 pm
BEAUTIFUL!!! Trump is getting destroyed in states where EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote!

Traitor.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Postpones VP Pick Announcement on: July 14, 2016, 07:19:58 pm
Trump now saying he might not do the joint 60 Minutes interview with his VP pick after all.

For those of you who are too young to have watched network television, 60 Minutes is on Sunday.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll be Trump's VP? on: July 10, 2016, 03:08:27 pm
Ivanka Trump.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump meeting with Sen GOP goes about as well as you'd expect on: July 08, 2016, 01:16:32 am
Joe Lieberman killed his Presidential chances not by running as an Independent, but by endorsing McCain.  Had he not done so, Lieberman, and not Biden, may well have been the Democratic nominee for VP in 2008. 

This is nonsense. Lieberman was a borderline pariah in the Democratic Party after 2006 and was reluctantly tolerated because he had the balance of the majority in his grasp. He was never going to be on the ticket in 2008, especially for Obama, who was running as a dove (even if he ended up considerably more hawkish after taking office).
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Shots fired at BLM protest in downtown Dallas, TX on: July 07, 2016, 11:51:11 pm
CNN confirms 11 officers shot, 3 dead, one civilian is wounded. Believe there are two snipers, and that a bomb may have been planted.

This is terrorism.

No, it's revenge.

How are those exclusive? Terrorism is a tactic. Revenge is a motive.

How is this not terrorism, which is literally using violent ends to influence politics?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Corker and Ernst withdraw on: July 07, 2016, 11:20:07 pm
Really? I've always interpreted the 17th Amendment to mean that a legislature can either give a governor the option to appoint a temporary replacement or not. The notion that that appointment power could be given in a restricted manner is novel to me.

Tell that to Hawaii, which requires the governor pick a replacement from a list provided by the former Senator's party.  Or Arizona, Utah or Wyoming, which require an appointee be from the same party as the former Senator.

I've gotta be honest, I've never really bothered to look into any of that before. Still, I have to wonder whether or not that would hold up in court if a governor ever challenged it.

A decade ago, the sitting GOP Senator in Wyoming died and the Democratic governor was forced by that law to pick a GOP Senate replacement (IIRC it was the state party submitted three names and the governor had to pick one of the three).

These laws have been used before, they're not just hypothetical.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Corker withdraws, Ernst appears to withdraw on: July 06, 2016, 01:05:15 pm
Deirdre Walsh ✔ @deirdrewalshcnn
Corker tells @mkraju he's withdrawing from Trump's VP consideration & adds: "His best running mate, by the way, would be Ivanka"
12:52 PM - 6 Jul 2016

I tend to agree with Corker on this...either Ivanka or her husband Jared Kushner would be better for Trump than, say, Newt Gingrich would be.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is 50% a Sufficient Threshold for Major Referenda? on: July 06, 2016, 12:20:42 pm
When Montenegro seceded from Serbia 10 years ago, they used a 55% threshold. Independence got 56% and passed.

I think 55% makes a lot of sense for something that monumental.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Trump vetting Corker Flynn Gingrich Christie etc on: July 06, 2016, 12:06:47 pm
Corker and Ernst are out, yeah. That cuts down the list considerably.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Capitals of states on: July 05, 2016, 01:13:25 pm
Texas' capital was originally Houston, but that was before statehood and it was nowhere close to being the largest city at that time.

And Houston was a malarial hellhole then and people kept dying from disease.

Houston is still a hellhole, but it has the malaria under control now. Wink
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is the destruction and annihilation of culture in the US inevitable? on: July 05, 2016, 01:10:30 pm
Did Americans have culture to begin with? /european

Someone's never been to Louisiana. Very, very distinct.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is the destruction and annihilation of culture in the US inevitable? on: July 02, 2016, 02:37:18 pm
Is there a more cultural traditionalist candidate than Bernie Sanders? He just reeks of a far bygone era of radical old Jewish men reading Socialist newspapers in Yiddish and trying to awkwardly inject themselves into labor disputes. Bernie Sanders is about the most old-fashioned, traditional, throwback candidate out of the whole two-dozen odd of them.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Yiannopoulos, Crowder, et al.--why do we even know about these people? on: June 29, 2016, 11:58:01 pm
Nathan...I normally read your posts, but this is a bit long - I'll just presume it's the subject argued sensibly. But have you seen Milo's social media? Like legit. Just saw these fabulous white jeans. $549. What a dream! <3 You know how hard it is to find something this legit?! I had to go to 5 stores! (Yes, I did precede him on this trend Tongue)



How many useless things go viral? At least this man has some tastefulness.

As ridiculous as it sounds, you have a point. Milo is iconic and very carefully branded. Milo knows how to market himself. He not only says outlandish things and does outlandish stunts, he has his own iconic dress style, pattern of speech, and so on. He has a fully-packaged persona.

It's not at all surprising to me that he's become a hit, he understands marketing on an instinctual level.

Milo's a vile person, but the man knows how to establish a clear brand. He's the fabulously flamboyant gay man who will say shocking racist and misogynistic things in a camp gay British voice while in impeccable outfits. As it turns out, there's a very real market for such a figure, and he never goes off-brand.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump backers: What are they? on: June 29, 2016, 11:48:48 pm
Over 2/5ths of the electorate.
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