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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP’s Stop-Trump fever breaks on: April 30, 2016, 11:36:15 pm
The #NeverTrump crowd has to ask themselves this: If Trump is the Republican nominee, are they willing to go all the way to vote against him.

That's the definition of #NeverTrump, yes.  As distinct from the people who have been trying to stop Trump from getting the nomination, but have never ruled out voting for him in the general election.

AFAIK, no one prominent who's actually #NeverTrump (that is, who's been saying that they'll vote against Trump in the GE) has yet doubled back on that commitment and said that they're willing to vote for Trump in the GE after all.


Rubio issued several "#NeverTrump" tweets during his campaign at one point, and is now saying he'll probably support Trump in the general.

EDIT: Here's one:
https://mobile.twitter.com/marcorubio/status/703583966973075457

He used a #NeverTrump hashtag without actually knowing what it meant.  When he was asked about it very soon afterward, he said that he thought #NeverTrump just meant that he would never vote for him in the primary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3kUlpyBwZc

The actual #NeverTrump people, those who said they'd never vote for Trump in the GE like Romney, Baker, Whitman, Sasse, and a bunch of conservative media personalities like many of those at National Review....I'm unaware of a single one of them going back on their earlier statements and now saying that they'll vote for Trump in the GE.  Some of them probably will, sure, but for now #NeverTrump is intact.


I bet the "actual" #NeverTrump crowd isn't that big.

The rest are a bunch of phonies.

No we're not.  We are just saying that he would be a terrible and completely unacceptable choice to be the de facto leader of conservatism, but that he would still be miles better than Hillary.

Never definitely implies never. It should have been #NotTrump or something. Of course Hillary is a gift to the Republican party for unity.

Again, #NeverTrump as used by most people using the hashtag really means never.  There are some interlopers like Rubio, who used the hashtag when they didn't understand what it meant.  But the original intention of the hashtag was "I'm not voting for Trump even in the general election".


As I have said, the "actual" #NeverTrump crowd is relatively small.

The rest are a bunch of phonies.

Of course it's a small group of people...it's a movement among op-ed columnists and media elites (consultants etc.) in the conservative press. That's a few thousand people, tops, in the United States. The size of the group was never the issue, the prominence of its membership was.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Cruz/Fiorina be the most hideous ticket in the history of the Republic? on: April 27, 2016, 05:27:17 pm
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Treasury Sec. to announce Harriet Tubman will replace Jackson on the $20 bill on: April 22, 2016, 01:11:12 pm
So the paper money will now have:

3 Republicans (Lincoln, Grant, and Tubman)
3 Federalists (Washington, Franklin, and Hamilton)
1 Democratic-Republican (Jefferson, on the seldom-used but still circulating $2)

0 Whigs
0 Democrats
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: let me tell you Hasidic Jews what's in the Old Testament... on: April 15, 2016, 07:13:19 pm
I'm pretty sure Yeshiva students know all about Yosef/Joseph.

Quote
“You study Joseph? What do you think about Joseph? Did you hear what was the most important thing Joseph said to his brothers? ‘My brothers, you meant it for evil, but God meant it for good.’ Did you know that? He may have been a little bit of a bragger. A little bit. Maybe. But they threw him in that ditch, they saved him and then sold him to slavery. And that’s how the Jews got to Egypt. Did you know that?”


This is just painful.

Also, the near-universal traditional Jewish consensus is that Moses > the Patriarchs. It's present right there in the text: Moses finds out God's real name, the Patriarchs don't. Moses sees God, the Patriarchs don't. Moses gets the elaborate laws that distinguish his followers from their neighbors and indicate their status as God's people, the Patriarchs...get to cut off part of their penis. Moses is known for being almost fanatically ethical (if with a serious temper and a bit of a tyrannical disposition), the Patriarchs are all almost absurdly immoral. Just within Joseph's brothers, good old Judah unknowingly screwing his daughter in law in order to shame him, Reuben slept with his father's concubine(!), and of course all the brothers, especially Levi, murdered an entire town because their sister Dinah had been abducted.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: drumpf campaign proving toxic to nation's schoolchildren on: April 13, 2016, 10:44:37 pm
Just FYI, the Westboro Baptist Church is literally the extended family of one (now-deceased) old shyster who hit on the tactic of doing outrageous things, inciting people into hitting him, and making a fortune suing for damages. (Hence doing outlandish things like protesting the funerals of soldiers who died in Iraq and Afghanistan...he was making a killing out of outraged people harassing him and the other protesters) There's no actual principle attached to what they do and you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in the "church's" 20-odd membership who wasn't born into or married into the Phelps family.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Donald Trump be remembered in 2066? on: April 12, 2016, 10:17:16 pm
The destroyer of an old, corrupt, archaic America predicated on false ideals and the founder of a new America, unburdened with outdated notions of liberty and equality and justice, that boldly bestrode the 21st century like the Colossus.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When does Hillary clinch the nomination? on: April 12, 2016, 05:01:02 pm
I think Sanders will concede on June 7th. The talk of taking it to the convention is to keep his supporters in yet-to-vote states from getting discouraged.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: drumpf campaign proving toxic to nation's schoolchildren on: April 12, 2016, 04:54:26 pm

Trump's behavior transcends party politics. His hateful words have distinguished him as a topic for class discussion because our conversations are not about who should win the presidency, but how presidential candidates should comport themselves on the campaign trail. My students need to know that Trump's behavior is beyond historical precedent.



Beyond historical precedent?



Some people have very short memories.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: House in play? on: April 10, 2016, 12:45:24 pm
Dems would need a thirty seat pickup. It's really not that hard to plot a 15 seat pickup, and a 20 seat pickup is doable in a massive Democratic year, but you're going to hit a brick wall around 210-212 Democrats. The road from 210 to 218 becomes VERY hard.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton: BLM is defending murderers and drug dealers on: April 09, 2016, 06:05:43 pm
I want to bring back the party of Huey Long, and I don't think there's much debate whether Huey Long should've been a Republican.

A. I'm very confused what Jim Webb and Huey Long have in common.

B. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLyfrb15v-Q

Long might be a Republican today, but only because he was about increasing his own personal power first and foremost and would need to be part of whatever party is dominant in Louisiana to do so. He wasn't an idiot who would beat his head against the wall trying to get elected by a dead party like the Louisiana Democrats (current governor aside). That aside, I imagine he'd use that exact same line he did in that video up there today. Huey Long wasn't exactly a party kind of guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hphgHi6FD8k

Listen to him here. "According to our estimates 4% of Americans own over 85% of the wealth of Americans and over 70% of Americans don't owe enough to pay the debts that they owe." That's Bernie Sanders talk that wouldn't go over well in a GOP primary at all. He goes into this big rant about how unjust it is for the wealthy to accumulate so much wealth that they can't even spend it in a lifetime.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Tool/ Game: Can you get Trump to 1,237? on: April 04, 2016, 05:27:40 pm
One thing the game here underplays is that a lot of those "uncommitted" delegates are the Pennsylvania delegates, and if Trump puts in even a little effort he should get a fair number of those (~20 out of 54 PA uncommitted delegates strikes me as reasonable...start out assuming ~30 and give Trump a 10 delegate organizational penalty).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DC Madame Scandal - Who Is It? on: April 02, 2016, 02:58:47 pm
It'll be interesting watching Bernie's fans adjust to this horrible reality about him.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New York raises minimum wage to $15... I think? on: April 01, 2016, 09:52:33 am
Looks like it hits 15 in NYC by 2019 and 2022 in Westchester and Long Island. Upstate goes to 12.50 in the same time frame...?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Were Landon, Wilkie and Dewey more conservative than Eisenhower? on: March 31, 2016, 09:53:06 pm
For Landon and Dewey, at least, absolutely.

Wilkie is very hard to pin down for a number of reasons.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ex-attorney says D.C. Madam’s phone records are ‘relevant’ to presidential race on: March 30, 2016, 08:51:17 pm
815 people, most of whom are nobodies, getting exposed like this is pretty low, IMO.

Does it have to be one of the candidates, though? Could it be one of their associates or supporters?

Watch it be Lewandowski.

That poor woman.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DC Madame Scandal - Who Is It? on: March 29, 2016, 11:06:33 pm
It's interesting that Trump seems to not be a popular guess, despite his dubious moral compass.

Why would Donald Trump want to pay for sex? He's Donald Trump, he has all the sex he wants with as many women as he wants.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CA: Deal Reached to Raise Minimum Wage to $15/hour on: March 28, 2016, 05:42:06 pm

Uh, yes. Agricultural work is exhausting and I don't see why it shouldn't be compensated appropriately.


So why wouldn't supermarkets start ordering even more of their produce than they already are from Chile and Argentina? The importation costs would be more than offset by the labor savings.

If a Chilean strawberry is retailing 29 cents cheaper than a Californian one in a supermarket, the consumer's going to pick it every time.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CA: Deal Reached to Raise Minimum Wage to $15/hour on: March 28, 2016, 03:26:13 pm
Half assed decision because it doesn't go into effect for years and it exempts like half of all business because they're small businesses.

Also important to note, the main reason they exempted small businesses is because if they didn't, basically every bodega and Chinese restaurant would go out of business.

Open borders make a high minimum wage impossible.

$15 is not "high".

For agricultural workers?

Also, the median income in California comes out to ~$20/hour. Raising the minimum to 75% of the median is...not something that's really viable.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CA: Deal Reached to Raise Minimum Wage to $15/hour on: March 27, 2016, 05:01:37 pm
Yeah, a tiered minimum wage (15/12.50/10) depending on region of CA would be entirely appropriate. This is a state that still has vast rural areas as well as inland hellholes like Fresno and Bakersfield, where a $15 minimum wage isn't going to be as viable as it will be in SF.

We'll see how this turns out, though.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BOOM! Trump seriously preparing, starts hiring staffers on: March 27, 2016, 02:23:35 pm
The debates will be magical. Jeb Bush standing between Ben Carson and Donald Trump will be the best thing.

Oh, can you imagine the Trump/Christie catfights?

Close, but no cigar!

I'd say I was still closer than anyone else in the thread. Just sub in another name for Christie and I'm golden.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are you feeling the BERN yet? on: March 27, 2016, 09:31:26 am
Worth pointing out that even if the campaign ended today Sanders would already have the third-highest delegate share of a loser in a Democratic primary, and he's on track to easily surpass Jesse Jackson 1988 (~30% of delegates) by the end of this, though probably not coming close to Clinton 08 (~47% of delegates).

The fact that this race may end up the second-closest Democratic Primary just highlights what blowouts they usually are.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you believe Ted Cruz actually had sex with any of these women? on: March 26, 2016, 02:48:58 pm
It's pathetic that politicians go around for years talking about how hardball and dirty politics is and then, when confronted with someone who actually plays dirty, complains that he's not playing by the totally imaginary ruleset. Trump's lateral thinking and lack of commitment to any faux-rules or objectives other than "winning" has spelled the doom of his GOP rivals, and if she's not careful, may yet spell the doom for the most textbook uncreative by-the-book politician since George H. W. Bush.

Don't accuse your opponent of sleeping with five women! ...Why not? Who cares if it's true or untrue: the point is to create doubt and undermine Cruz's reputation among Cruz's most loyal voters in the religious Right.

Don't accuse your opponent of having a pathologial mental illness akin to pedophilia. Why not? It worked like a charm and Carson's now endorsed Trump.


Do people just not remember that this is the country that invented rough and tumble politics? The country where people accused John Adams of treasonous schemes to make himself king? Accusing Thomas Jefferson of raping and siring children off of his slaves during a campaign (this one was even true)? John Quincy Adams of pimping out American virgin girls to the Tsar of Russia to improve US/Russian relations? Political attacks have little relationship to fact and never had. Why are we suddenly pretending we're too good for this sort of thing? It's what made America what it is today.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Cheatin' Ted caught with FIVE mistresses! on: March 24, 2016, 09:15:09 pm


Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson?



Conservative activist and CNN contributor Amanda Carpenter?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump an intelligent man? on: March 24, 2016, 04:52:53 pm
If Trump was a D&D character... (10 is average for those of you who don't know, +2 is a standard deviation).

Strength 8 (12 in younger days)
Dexterity 10
Constitution 10 (12 in younger days)

Wisdom 10 (very uncanny/street smart but also an idiot with no filter who continuously bites off more than he can chew)

Intelligence 10 (transfered into Wharton from Fordham because of Daddy's money decades ago when college admissions weren't that competitive and were mostly a function of money/prep school connections)

Charisma 18 (has one of the greatest forces of personality of anyone on earth.  The only people that this guy can't bowl over are insanely shrewd lawyers, bankers).


Trump would have very high Intelligence but subpar Wisdom.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump an intelligent man? on: March 23, 2016, 11:06:59 am
Trump has a good brain and the best words. He said so himself.
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