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December 19, 2014, 05:54:27 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will a Supreme Court Justice ever run for President again? on: Today at 02:28:34 am
It's interesting because Hughes later went back to the court under Hoover and served there until retirement. Pretty interesting.

And had a term as Secretary of State under Harding/Coolidge to fill in the middle. Hughes was basically the living embodiment of the Republican establishment in his day and one of the most important figures commonly forgotten today.
2  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is there such a thing as objective reality? on: Today at 01:30:18 am
I was thinking about a little experiment that could be done.

1. Gather 15 mentally healthy people in a room.
2. Have a black medium sized dog (like a lab) walk into the room.
3. Call the dog out.
4. Ask immediately what everyone saw (or if anyone saw anything other than a black dog - a man, a woman, a fairy, an elf, a dragon, etc.).

I guarantee that everyone will have seen a black dog. Then, if there is still skepticism, repeat the experiment with, say, a woman in a red dress with raven hair. Then check immediately to see if anyone saw anything other than a distinct woman in a red dress with dark hair.

Of course this would be a colossal waste of time to prove the obvious, but nonetheless if there exists doubt concerning objective reality, or if we're bending over backwards to say that there is no such thing, then these kinds of things can prove useful to demonstrate that there is.

And then the blind man in the room does not perceive the same reality as the other participants in your experiment and the results are called into question, yes.
3  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: What type of church would you expect to have the best music? on: Today at 01:26:43 am
Some terrible reactionary super-Catholic church, of course. Latin hymns are the best hymns.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: December 18, 2014, 02:54:21 pm
What happens if Likud gets the exact same number of seats as either Jewish Home or the Labour coalition? Which one gets to try to form a coalition?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So, it turns out the Democrat's path to majority was... on: December 18, 2014, 01:58:43 pm
We lost Colorado solely because Udall ran such a poor campaign, had he ran a campaign like Begich did in AK we would've won I have no doubt about that. That's the only race that I think was salvageable.

I think that Colorado and Iowa were lost by the Democrats running terrible campaigns. By contrast, Alaska and North Carolina were pitch-perfect Democratic campaigns that ran into brick walls in a stunningly Republican year. In a less GOP year, Hagan, at least, would've survived, but there was absolutely nothing she could do in 2014 to do better than she did.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is the USA still a democratic republic? on: December 18, 2014, 01:51:03 pm
Of course it is. Some random ~20,000 voters in Virginia removed the second-most powerful man in the US Congress from his job and seemingly-inevitable rise to Speakership just this past year and voted in an obscure professor from an obscure university who spent less on his campaign than Cantor spent on steak dinners. That happened six months ago. Powerful people are punished and flushed out of office by voters at rates that would have been literally unbelievable 15 or even 10 years ago. We have a freshman Senate class of 13 this year. 13! That's nearly 40% of the Senate class this year who are freshmen.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Rubio running make the lifting of the Cuba embargo/travel ban more likely? on: December 18, 2014, 01:31:11 pm
...As soon as I saw this, I figured that Rubio would be in trouble holding onto his Senate seat in 2016.   

If there's any Democrat in Florida that can beat Rubio, I agree. I'm not aware if there is such a person.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce sweeping changes in Cuba policy today! on: December 18, 2014, 01:27:59 pm
Rand Paul continues his pattern of occasionally saying sensible stuff, supports detente with Cuba. The Republican Party could do worse than to listen to him once in a while.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Would Hillary Clinton win Missouri if she picked Dick Gephardt (D-MO)? on: December 18, 2014, 11:14:35 am
This isn't 2004.

I know that. Gephardt could help with the union vote that Democrats need. Although he's been out of office for a decade, union members still like him.

Dick Gephardt struggled to find any real support in 2004, was held in contempt by most of the party during his tenure as Minority Leader, and is a fossil now, especially given that Clinton is already on the elderly side. Clinton needs someone from the next generation, not an even older boomer.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why Democrats can't win over (more) white working-class voters (Slate) on: December 18, 2014, 11:12:20 am
Democrats need what, 40-42% of the overall white vote to remain competitive nationwide? That's going to require at least not getting killed with this subset, although not necessarily "winning" them.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Graham says he's now considering on: December 17, 2014, 12:37:17 pm
Kind of telling how everyone runs to the gay jokes when Lindsey Graham comes up. That said, our first bachelor president since James Buchanan would be a powerful stride forward for single guys everywhere. Tongue
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce sweeping changes in Cuba policy today! on: December 17, 2014, 12:34:52 pm
As they say, "Only Obama could go to Cuba."
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Dallas County lost for the GOP? on: December 16, 2014, 04:08:53 pm
Is this where the discussion of Democratic self-segregation into heavily Democratic communities, the "Big Sort" discussion, white flight, etc. will all be rehashed? If so, can we just recognize those factors and move back to the previous discussion?

A Dallas County that's 55-60% Democratic is, as discussed above, underwhelming compared to most of the countries other "big city" counties, and, as recognized above, that's only partially because of outlying areas that are within the county. The same fact is true for rather different reasons regarding Harris County at a dead-even split, compounded by Houston's status as the capital of the global oil industry as a natural right wing tendency. A competitive Texas would at least start off with a Dallas that votes like Travis does now and a Bexar and Harris that vote like Dallas does now, along with cuts in the GOP majorities in the suburban areas, a 50/50 Tarrant, and high turnout in the Rio Grande Valley. None of those factors are there and many look near-impossible to build. I find a lot of the "Texas will be a swing state in the next 10 years" chat to be eye-rolling.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Rep: GOP leadership duped me into voting for CRomnibus! on: December 15, 2014, 12:22:10 am
This isn't the first time Stutzman has said something incredibly inane.

Quote from: October 3rd, 2013
"We're not going to be disrespected," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. "We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is."

That is about the government shutdown last year, of course.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Dallas County lost for the GOP? on: December 14, 2014, 02:58:33 am
The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the chance of a democratic ticket of Hillary/Julian Castro carrying TX? on: December 13, 2014, 01:14:29 pm
0%. No one outside of San Antonio cares who Julian Castro is.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Don't look now but the oil market is collapsing on: December 11, 2014, 02:17:43 pm
The collapse in oil prices could well be the most important news story of the year.
18  General Discussion / History / Re: The KKK was crucial to building GOP strength in the South on: December 11, 2014, 03:05:29 am
I'd be surprised if you found many posters here with red avatars who would not have been proud Republicans in roughly the 20 years between 1855 and 1875. Any decent person would have been.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you rather your daughter date a cop or a stoner? on: December 10, 2014, 11:40:46 pm
I don't know if the cop in question is working the beat on a local police force or a state or federal agent. I don't know if the stoner smokes marijuana and watches cartoons while giggling or if he shoots up heroin and pawns said television to get his next hit. Specifics matter.
20  General Discussion / History / Re: The KKK was crucial to building GOP strength in the South on: December 10, 2014, 03:46:12 pm
Winfield: you are misinterpreting what everyone here is saying. The argument is that the GOP stopped being the party of Civil Rights in 1876 when Reconstruction ended and after the 1964-65 period when northern Democrats became unequivocally tied to civil rights, southern Democrats deserted to the GOP. Everyone here knows that from its founding in 1854 until 1876 the GOP was by far the more supportive of African-American rights and that, really, up until FDR at the earliest the Democrats were actively hostile to civil rights.
21  General Discussion / History / Re: About what year did support for slavery in the former CSA fall below 50%? on: December 10, 2014, 03:42:05 pm
Reviving slavery once it was abolished was a fool's errand. Would someone whose opinion was "slavery isn't coming back, we need to deal with life without it, but it was nice while it lasted" or some such be considered supporting of slavery in your definition? That's where a lot of southerners were.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA: 2014 Senatorial Open Runoff Election Result on: December 10, 2014, 01:07:36 am
It speaks volumes about the situation Mary Landrieu was in that a three-term senator losing her reelection bid by 12 points was considered "surprisingly close." She was doomed and no amount of DSCC money was going to change that.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Obama so unpopular? on: December 09, 2014, 08:19:57 pm


Lest we forget the halcyon days of bipartisanship past.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Obama so unpopular? on: December 09, 2014, 07:55:30 pm
How did Gingrich work with Clinton? He shut down the government over sitting in the back seat on Air Force One on the way to Rabin's funeral. He funded an "independent prosecutor" who spent three years sniffing around a land deal in which the Clintons lost money, and then Gingrich was the spearhead of the first presidential impeachment in 130 years, before losing his speakership over doing exactly what Clinton had done. The only major piece of legislation passed during those four years Gingrich was speaker was a welfare reform that gave the GOP everything they wanted. How is this an example to aspire to?
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Obama so unpopular? on: December 09, 2014, 07:06:54 pm
The Guantanamo thing is probably the most unfair cop of all of the things Wulfric brought up (outside of Benghazi, where the Administration did nothing wrong whatsoever). Obama did make a serious effort in 2009 to close Guantanamo and Congress has prevented him from doing so. Ever since, Obama has tried his hardest to reduce the number of prisoners in Guantanamo (from over 250 when he took office to ~150 today) and has been blocked at every turn as foreign countries refuse to take them when the Administration has tried to extradite them. This isn't Obama "lying" or anything, this is Obama bound and determined to close Guantanamo but prevented from doing so because it isn't in the President's power.
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