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September 04, 2015, 01:51:02 pm
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1  General Discussion / History / Re: Louis XIV. 300 years dead on: September 03, 2015, 11:02:47 pm
Good riddance to one of the worst rulers France ever had.

I don't know, if one of your formative experiences was fleeing the Palais Royal dressed as a commoner along with your mother and the effeminate Italian guy who ran your government while rebels sacked Paris, you might also get ideas about moving your capital to a hunting lodge outside of town (so next time Paris revolts you're not locked in with the mob) and forcing the nobles to spend their time there to keep an eye on them. Also running your government yourself so you don't need to rely on effeminate Italian clergymen in the future.

The Fronde, especially coming on the tail of the French Wars of Religion, was a pretty huge sign that France as it had been run simply did not work.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: YouGov national poll: D: Clinton 44% Sanders 25%;R: Trump 36% Carson 11% Bush 8% on: September 03, 2015, 09:04:07 pm
Lindsey Graham is higher than 0, clearly a sh**t poll.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump set to sign pledge ruling out 3rd party bid on: September 03, 2015, 01:20:42 pm
In all seriousness, this is an example of Trump's negotiating skills. Trump gave up nothing (a third party bid would be an impossibility given that most filing deadlines are the same dates as the primaries so he couldn't run without dropping out now) and what does he get in return for dropping the empty threat of an impossible third party run? A vow that if he wins the nomination the 16 other candidates will pledge support, something that is both useful and gratifying to Trump (Lindsey Graham's endorsement will be wonderful). A good deal.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump set to sign pledge ruling out 3rd party bid on: September 03, 2015, 11:24:16 am
The loyalty oath is to support the GOP nominee. All the GOPers will sign.

Half a year from now Lindsey Graham and Jeb Bush will realize in horror that they signed a vow to support Donald Trump.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Reason the elected president is Obvious. on: September 02, 2015, 09:40:59 pm
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6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the black vote? on: September 02, 2015, 11:23:33 am
He'd do better than in 2008 or 2012, but getting the GOP back to the 10-15% range among blacks isn't much of an improvement from the current 5% range.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush Bashes Trump in Spanish on: September 02, 2015, 11:19:56 am
"El hombre no es conservador."

Yes, Jeb!, keep it up.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When Will Yeb Bush drop out? on: September 01, 2015, 06:40:01 pm
His name isn't "Yeb!"

It's iJeb!
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the GOP nomination in 2016? on: September 01, 2015, 07:57:02 am
I think Trump has the largest single potential of any GOP candidate. That potential might be a 25% chance at the nomination.

The best chance for blocking Trump involves Jeb Bush's campaign sinking and his supporters going to Rubio. Jeb is a catastrophic candidate and if he is the anti-Trump Trump has this. Jeb Bush is far and away the weakest candidate in the race.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP nat: Hillary w/ 35-point lead, Trump leads with 29% on: August 31, 2015, 11:35:58 pm
Can we all grasp that Paul is currently holding the same support as Jim Gilmore. Can we all just grasp that real quick, thanks.

Look on the bright side. Rand's still polling ahead of the sitting Senior Senator from South Carolina and the sitting two-term Governor of Louisiana. That has to count for something!
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult (national): Trump increase lead on: August 31, 2015, 08:00:39 pm
Who is Morning Consult? Why was I not consulted as to who Morning Consult is?

I also love that everyone else is in single digits.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Notice that all Republican "rising stars" this century have been massive duds? on: August 31, 2015, 12:11:00 am
Chet Edwards was supposed to be Obama's VP, what happened to him?

What? Seriously, what? The only names I remember hearing floated for Obama VP were Clinton, Biden, Warner, Kaine, and sometimes Bayh.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon" on: August 30, 2015, 10:03:40 pm
I thought there was already speculation that the Constitution Party would be willing to give him the nomination if he doesn't get the GOP one.

Yeah, he may not line up with their views that well (except on immigration), but he would easily get enough votes to give their 2020 nominee federal funding, so it would be a great decision for them.

The Constitution Party has ballot access in a mere 12 states, and it'd be difficult as hell for Trump to add significantly more to that unless he starts trying in 2015. I don't think Donald Trump would be interested in a third party run for President where he's not even on the ballot in (let's be generous) 30 states.

EDIT: From the CP's own website:

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drop-Out Watch Thread on: August 30, 2015, 06:03:55 pm
The guys who have nothing better to do (including Lincoln Chafee) aren't going to drop out. I think the sweet spot for dropouts are people who have real political careers and are damaging their reps with humiliating bids. Bobby Jindal, Lindsay Graham...?(although he seems to be enjoying destroying his reputation), Chris Christie, and Rand Paul are the ones I'd be looking at as likely dropouts in the next six weeks.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Backing Jeb is the dumbest thing the GOP establishment can do on: August 30, 2015, 04:27:36 pm
Should Governor Bush be nominated for President in 2016, he will be the most conservative GOP nominee for President since 1984.

What?? If you're going to attack the conservative credentials of other Republicans, you MUST attack Reagan's too? The guy legalized abortion in California pre-Roe v. Wade (the first state to ever do this), gave illegal immigrants amnesty, opposed gay discrimination in schools in the 1970s (!!!), legalized no-fault divorce in California, was a union leader, ran up huge deficits, set tax rates to the mid-30s when they could have been lower, made peace with our great enemy the USSR, etc., etc.

Let me repeat that he it was his signature that turned America from a 100%-elective abortion illegal country to a country that allowed it in its largest state. Let me repeat that it was his signature that gave amnesty to illegal immigrants.

Would a Republican with that record even be allowed on the stage in 2013? Doubtful, and if he were, you and every other Republican would be howling about his lack of conservative credentials.

So you are arguing that Governor Bush is the most conservative nominee since Goldwater?

Are you arguing that Jeb Bush is significantly to the right of his brother?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump supports negotiating with terrorists on: August 30, 2015, 12:57:37 pm
Quote
Permit me to remind you about Donald Trumpís assessment of President Bush back in 2008:

Bush has been so bad, maybe the worst president in the history of this country. He has been so incompetent, so bad, so evil, that I donít think any Republican could have won. Evil? Evil? Of course, in the same interview, Trump endorsedÖ diplomatic outreach with Iran. You know, you can be enemies with people, whether itís Iran, Iraq, anyplace else and you can still have dialogue. These people wonít even talk to him. Itís terrible.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/420996/trump-2008-bush-evil-talk-iran-obama-cannot-do-worse-bush-jim-geraghty

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/420996/trump-2008-bush-evil-talk-iran-obama-cannot-do-worse-bush-jim-geraghty

Negotiating with Iran? You're telling me that Trump is the true heir to Ronald Reagan?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker: building a wall on Canadian border is worth considering on: August 30, 2015, 11:49:18 am
Don't worry, guys, the Canadians will pay for it!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon" on: August 30, 2015, 02:17:10 am
I'm really not sure some of you realize the filing situation to get on the ballot as an indy. If Trump is knocked out of the primaries next March, running independent is basically out of the cards. He wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in many states.

Trump is giving up nothing by saying he won't run third party. If Trump wanted to run third party he'd have to start this year.

The only route for Trump to get ballot access everywhere third party would be the hilarious spectacle of him trying to hijack the Libertarian ballot line by swamping their convention.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Backing Jeb is the dumbest thing the GOP establishment can do on: August 29, 2015, 09:35:34 pm
Rubio would be the ideal establishment candidate, he'd be more likely than Bush or Kasich to unify the party, he isn't as gaffe prone as Walker and Bush, and he polls well against Clinton so far.

His main problem is that he doesn't have a base state in the early primaries.  Walker does well in Iowa.  Bush and Kasich are strongest in New Hampshire.  Rubio isn't strong in any of the early states. He really needs to invest in one state, or else he'll lose them all.

If Trump sweeps Iowa and NH Rubio will be the anti-Trump candidate to rally behind.

Where does Rubio make his move? Nevada? No one cares about Nevada compared to the other three early contests. (Granted, if IA, NH, and SC go Trump and Rubio wins NV, that makes him the go to guy by default)
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Des Moines Register: Trump and Carson lead, everyone else far behind on: August 29, 2015, 07:04:01 pm
Trump vs. Carson for the nomination = GOP establishment suicide.

Nah, Carson isn't a creature of the Establishment, but he's not against the Establishment. They could settle for him.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The official Dr. Ben Carson discussion thread on: August 29, 2015, 07:01:32 pm


Carson as emerging anti-Trump?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon" on: August 29, 2015, 03:50:02 pm
He's probably going to decide against it (unfortunately).

Not running third party makes more sense for him. He has a far more realistic shot at the White House seizing the GOP nomination and hoping that the global economy collapses so voters send him in in a fit of panic (his most viable route barring a Clinton meltdown).
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Backing Jeb is the dumbest thing the GOP establishment can do on: August 29, 2015, 12:35:04 pm
Yeah, Jeb Bush is colossally overrated. I suspect that the Establishment will realize this at some point, maybe if Bush is still polling like this at the end of September. It'll be Rubio time.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will Trump implode? on: August 28, 2015, 07:34:33 pm
You need to read the WaPo article on Trump's poll numbers. They arent a bubble like past flame out candidates more more like McCains or Romneys during their campaigns.

Yes, this is a real point and people aren't picking up on it for some reason. If you compare Bush/Carson (the leading GOP candidates) averages with 2012, they are hanging out with Dr. Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann, not Romney. Romney's average almost never dipped below 20, and even when it did, only dipped as low as 18 for a few days. Bush's average is below 10.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will take Trump down? on: August 27, 2015, 10:50:58 pm
I honestly think the most likely thing to take Trump down at this point is him saying something moderate and sensible with a lot of people watching. People think "Oops!" took down Perry in 2011, but the line that really did him in was "Have a heart!" regarding the children of undocumented immigrants. If, for example, Trump is asked during a debate something about gay rights and he responds "Gay people are Americans too, and they are granted equal protection by our Constitution. Regardless of your personal beliefs, we all must recognize that fundamental right," his numbers will plummet.

I don't think Trump would say that. I think he'd say "I know some gays. Real killers...brilliant negotiators.  They can bring clients to all the hottest spots in Manhattan...they know how to close the deal there. It's true! Real sharks. I know a few gay negotiators I want on my team when we sit down with China! They'll go to the hippest show Off-Off-Broadway and settle the trade deficit over tapas and sangria. China won't know what hit 'em."

EDIT: I seriously expect that Trump will respond to the question "do you support same sex marriage" with "Only if they hold the reception in one of my hotels" and that the audience will just roar in approval.
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