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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Paul, Collins, McCain likely opposed to G-C on: September 22, 2017, 02:49:45 pm
Also we may need to lock this soon and start a new megathread.

We should keep this open until 10/01, to cover the GOP's new new new bill they'll inevitably write this weekend.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College students don't understand the 1st Amendment, at all on: September 21, 2017, 05:47:57 pm
link - Brookings

The highlights of the highlights.
only 39% of college students think the 1st protects hate speech
62% of Dem students think it's ok to shout down a speaker they disagree with
19% of all students think it's ok to use violence to stop a speaker they don't agree with
62% of all students think every event on campus should have someone from the "other side" to argue their points

freaking disgusting

I don't think that the second item is a violation of free speech. There is no right to be heard: the speaker speaks, the protesters shout over it. That isn't a free speech violation.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Korea Mega Thread on: September 19, 2017, 10:47:58 pm
Important article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/09/chinas-evolving-north-korea-strategy

"China announced in 2016 that it would create a force dedicated to nuclear emergencies, including responding to nuclear accidents in foreign countries.9 Chinese military officers have explicitly stated that contingency plans are in place for a mission to secure DPRK nuclear weapons and fissile material, and that they involve moving Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) troops at least one hundred kilometers into North Korean territory.10"

This is a key factor in any decision the US makes. If we do an offensive against NK, the chances are high that the Chinese push south to stabilize the border. As they push south, the risk of air sorties hitting PLA soldiers are high (so the US would need to establish a deconfliction zone/ADIZ with them), as well as the possibility that any land the PLA secures, China will claim, similar to the grabs by the Soviet Union during and following WW2.

It's immensely complicated.

I don't think China wants to incorporate any N. Korean land in the aftermath of the war. China's #2 goal (after the #1 goal of preventing unification) is to prevent a flood of N. Korean refugees into China. Making N. Korea part of China makes those people already there.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Parliamentarian rules reconciliation expires September 30 on: September 19, 2017, 04:56:46 pm
We'll know this bill is going down if Cornyn announces it has 50 votes and the vote will be held by the end of the week.

Given that Congress has left for the week and doesn't meet again until Monday, it'd be hard to have a vote this week. Wink

Vote, if it happens, will be sometime between Wednesday the 27th and Friday the 29th.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson/Weld flipped ticket? on: September 19, 2017, 02:07:49 pm
Bill Weld could never have won the nomination.

I think Johnson-Weld was seriously held back by Johnson being such a...weird...guy, but realistically, he was the best person that party could've nominated. I do think that if they had just duct-taped his mouth shut and locked him in a closet the whole election, he could've gotten ~5% rather than ~3%.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Parliamentarian rules reconciliation expires September 30 on: September 19, 2017, 01:37:38 am
It really does all come down to Murkowski in the end here. I don't think this bill passes. It definitely could pass, but the GOP has done none of the groundwork necessary for it to actually pass.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: September 18, 2017, 11:38:07 am
Otherwise, more critical voices would've called out against the failure of Gitmo closure, or the stimulus which was too small, etc.

Are we just going to ignore that Guantanamo only has 41 prisoners in it today, when it had well over 200 when Obama took office? Reducing Gitmo prisoners by over 80% is a massive accomplishment when you have to individually negotiate and find a place for every single prisoner.
8  General Discussion / History / Re: In 1000 years Adolf Hitler will be remembered as... on: September 18, 2017, 11:34:30 am
Neither: a failed conqueror/empire-builder, a la Napoleon, with some mass murder stories thrown in, but the actual passion about him will be gone.

See: Tamerlane or Genghis Khan. When people mention the Holocaust, the response will be "it was a different era, everyone was brutal, people didn't know any better. People were just barbarous savages back then."
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: What happens if Trump/Republicans keep winning while losing the PV? on: September 18, 2017, 10:59:50 am
I don't see why people keep bringing up splitting up California. What would that achieve? It would impact the Senate, but have no impact on the presidency. Besides, Republicans could just split up Nebraska. It's pretty silly as a solution.

It would have an impact on the Presidency: CA currently has 55 EVs, 53 from House seats and 2 from Senators. A split CA would have 57 total EVs: 53 from House seats and 4 from Senators. This would also bring the total electoral college up from 538 to 540.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump be a 1 term President? on: September 18, 2017, 10:57:33 am
Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

Thing is, Trump won by the skin of his teeth, which means he has zero margin of error for any decline of support. Obama won big in 2008 and was far more unpopular in 2012, and that meant he won his reelection by 4 rather than 7. Trump's starting at -2. He doesn't have anywhere down to go before he hits losing territory.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservative CNN guest: the 2 things I believe in are “1st Amendment and boobs" on: September 17, 2017, 08:37:00 pm
To anyone who is commenting on this without watching the clip:

Watch the clip. The thing he said isn't the issue, it's that he repeats it like 8 times and digs in about it.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Korea Mega Thread on: September 17, 2017, 01:00:00 pm
As Saddam showed in the First Gulf War...he did, in fact, have missiles that had a pretty extensive reach. They were borderline useless due to the lack of a harmful payload.
13  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: If science someday brings Eternal Life/Resurrection, what about Christianity? on: September 16, 2017, 08:25:39 pm
Religions like Buddhism could have a similar problem. The Buddha founded his philosophy/religion after observing the inevitability of suffering... observing the poor, the sick, the dying, and the dead. What happens if science is able to eliminate most of the forms of suffering, and the only suffering that is left is minimal, such as being worried about making a new friend or feeling uncomfortable with public speaking? What happens when people are genuinely happy with their present life and don't want it to change or end? How does Buddhism react and adapt to those changes, to survive and thrive?

Buddha would find that observation laughable. Someone with material wealth, health, family, security,and happiness just has more anchors keeping him from Nirvana, to a Buddhist. Those things are the root of the suffering, not the alleviation of it.
14  General Discussion / History / Re: Nazi leaders' delusions in 1945 on: September 16, 2017, 01:10:46 am
In winter 1945, just months before the war in Europe would end, Hitler was ecstatic at the news of Roosevelts death. He felt that this was a sign of divine providence and there would be a new miracle on the Vistula in 1945. Despite the fact that the German army had been totally annihilated by the Russian and Allied advance, and was only a matter of time.

There was a actual miracle on the Vistula, back in the 18th century in a war with Russia and Prussia. The Russian czar died, and was replaced on the throne by a extreme Prussophile or just a complete moron.The war was going extremely well for Russia, and Russian troops had smashed the Prussian army and were marching towards the Vistula and Berlin. The new Russian emperor in a bought of insanity, halted his army and settled for a white peace with Prussia, despite being able to take Berlin.

Peter III wasn't "insane," he just had policy goals 180 degrees opposed from the Empress Elizabeth's and disapproved of going to war with Prussia to begin with. Withdrawing and making peace right on the verge of victory might seem insane, but Peter III didn't think Russia should be at war with Prussia at all and wanted to end the war with his hero as soon as possible.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CA passes bill requiring presidential candidates to release tax returns on: September 15, 2017, 04:59:47 pm
This is definitely getting struck down, but it's a nice PR move.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How each election's map would look like if the PV was tied on: September 15, 2017, 04:58:32 pm
I always think it's interesting (and criminally untalked about) how poorly Reagan did in the South in 1980 compared to the dominant "realignment" narrative that has come to rule our history books.

True, but he was a Californian running against a VERY Southern politician. (A lot of people don't remember quite how Southern Jimmy Carter was, given how much he's changed in his post-presidency)
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Harris says she'd support a Feinstein re-election bid '100 percent' on: September 15, 2017, 04:51:37 pm
Seriously, why is this a criticism? If you don't like Feinstein, primary her, whatever, but sitting Senators never, ever endorse primaries of their state's other senator. If Harris did this, she'd end up working out of a broom closet and have all her committees stripped.
18  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: World Population Halved on: September 15, 2017, 12:52:31 pm
If your point of departure is early enough, your answer could just be that the Green Revolution never happened. That's a lot easier and less pleasant than disaster or nuclear war.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Harris says she'd support a Feinstein re-election bid '100 percent' on: September 15, 2017, 12:33:04 pm
I don't have anything against Feinstein but cmon, she's gonna be 90 at the end of her term...

I really don't think senators should run for reelection once they are above 80.

I absolutely agree with you. It's just career suicide for a Senator to bash the Senator from their same state and party, particularly when that Senator has a few decades of seniority on you.

If people want to primary DiFi, they absolutely should give it a shot, but to expect sitting officeholders in CA to back you on that? Especially when you don't even have a hypothetical candidate yet? It feels like people are just looking for excuses to bash Harris here.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: TX-Gov: Joaquín Castro considering a run on: September 15, 2017, 12:26:48 pm
Giving up a safe House seat for this is career suicide.

EDIT: Cruz's Senate seat is Likely R, but Abbott is 100% Safe R no matter who is running against him.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Harris says she'd support a Feinstein re-election bid '100 percent' on: September 15, 2017, 10:29:43 am
Harris has nothing to gain and everything to lose by criticizing Feinstein. If I was the junior senator from California, you'd better believe I'd be choosing my words with care as well.

This guy gets it. There is no upside towards insulting or threatening a powerful, entrenched Senator in your own party, especially from your own state, unless you want to spend the rest of your Senate career officing out of the basement of Dirksen and stuck on the Indian Affairs Committee and nothing else. Senators only have as much visibility and prestige as their party leadership lets them have.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: amended early March primary bill advances in California legislature on: September 14, 2017, 10:48:01 am
I'm actually not sure a brokered convention with a floor fight would be the worst thing in the world. The media has been openly salivating over one of those for as long as I've been alive. It would totally eclipse Trump for weeks, and the dangerous thing about running against Trump is he's a black hole for attention because all anyone thinks or cares about is him when he's around.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why weren't Pennsylvania and Michigan considered tossups by any news networks? on: September 14, 2017, 10:44:48 am
There also wasn't nearly enough polling of Michigan. PA was considered Lean D but with a chance of going for Trump, much more so than MI was. I still think saying MI was Lean D rather than tossup on election day is fair: Trump ended up shockingly winning it by 0.2% of the vote in a result that wasn't clear until days later.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you were told Trump was going to win on: September 14, 2017, 10:42:57 am

This is 270-268 Clinton but literally the only way I saw a Trump victory as remotely possible is if faithless electors botched the voting process.

Just flip ME-02 and you have a 269-269 tie that Congress would've put Trump in the White House on.
25  General Discussion / History / Re: When and how did Donald Trump become famous? on: September 13, 2017, 11:05:33 pm
If you're talking about Trump in movies, you need to hit Little Rascals, where he was the father of one of the rascals.

Or how there's a whole episode of Fresh Prince of Bel Air where he and Ivana want to buy the house the cast lives in.
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