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August 05, 2015, 01:28:57 am
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1  General Discussion / History / Re: Adolf Hitler: left or right? on: August 04, 2015, 07:43:50 pm
Are people trying to give Al a heart attack with these threads?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win any primaries or caucuses? on: August 04, 2015, 02:46:23 pm
I wouldn't be shocked to see Trump win New Hampshire. If Scott Walker's campaign continues to be moribund and dull, Iowa might even be in play.

The big difference between Trump and other outsider candidates is that Trump has basically unlimited resources for his campaign. Cutting him off from big donors affects Donald Trump not at all if he wants to open his wallet.

Like President Hermain Cain?... Oh wait. President Steve For- no, gosh darn it. $25,000,000 Rudy Guilian... Ah, I see.

Primary August Polls:
2012: Rick Perry & Barack Obama -> Mitt Romney & Barack Obama
2008: Rudy Guiliani & Hillary Clinton -> John McCain & Barack Obama
2004: George W. Bush & Howard Dean -> George W. Bush & John Kerry

Why You Should Ignore The Republican Presidential Primary Polls*

*March, pre-Trumpmania

Steve Forbes won two primaries in 1996 (Delaware and Arizona). The question at stake here is whether Trump will win any primaries...I don't think Forbes is an example in your favor here.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win any primaries or caucuses? on: August 04, 2015, 01:21:12 pm
I wouldn't be shocked to see Trump win New Hampshire. If Scott Walker's campaign continues to be moribund and dull, Iowa might even be in play.

The big difference between Trump and other outsider candidates is that Trump has basically unlimited resources for his campaign. Cutting him off from big donors affects Donald Trump not at all if he wants to open his wallet.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will the USA end? on: August 03, 2015, 11:45:27 pm
At what point does "broken up into smaller countries" end the USA as long as one of those countries claims the name?

Even in a cataclysmic shakeup like the one the USSR had 25 years ago, I don't see the USA as very vulnerable to secession movements. The only one of the fifty states I feel we'd lose in that scenario is Hawaii.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Gravis Marketing-SC Trump/Clinton Lead on: August 03, 2015, 10:56:58 pm
Poor Lindsey.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Trump leads in Fox national poll on: August 03, 2015, 05:08:13 pm
I guess this poll called the Pataki household.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Online Gambling Be Completely Legalized? on: August 03, 2015, 04:53:26 pm
"Completely" legalized? No, it doesn't make sense to allow gambling in jurisdictions that currently ban it otherwise just because you're doing it over a computer screen rather than in person.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forumite with the most posts who you didn't know existed? on: August 02, 2015, 11:30:58 pm
so possibly #63 Democratic Hawk.

He'd be very Sad at that, but then very Cheesy at the prospect of your discovering his posts, and maybe Wink thrilled at the chance that you might take some insights from his Smiley unique writing style.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this a left, center-left, centrist, center-right, or right wing forum? on: August 02, 2015, 11:27:39 pm
Liberal, in the sense that the majority of posters here subscribe to various beliefs that could be placed under that umbrella label (in the sense of the conventional definition of liberalism, as opposed to the American definition). I mean, there are only a handful of hardcore left wingers (TNF, SWE), actual conservatives (DC, Cathcon and TJ) and intellectually barren types (me) to provide any variety.

This is pretty much correct. The liberal family is a pretty wide-ranging ideological family, though, and encompasses many yellow, blue, orange, light green, and red avatars who don't agree on very much in practice.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden Aide: Biden 90% In on: August 02, 2015, 11:22:07 pm
All I'll say is that if Biden wants this, he needs to start running...like...next week. Things are more advanced than he might think...the debates are upon us.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So what will it take for people to take Trump seriously? on: August 02, 2015, 04:45:17 pm
If Trump wins Iowa, then I'll start entertaining the possibility that he's a serious contender for the nomination.

That'd certainly result in the most interesting presidential election of our lifetimes, especially because Trump winning the nomination has a very serious chance of a (short-term) GOP schism of some sort.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden Aide: Biden 90% In on: August 02, 2015, 04:43:17 pm
If Biden wanted to be seriously considered, he'd have jumped in three months ago. Too many people are committed to Clinton now...if the Vice President had been in the race in May, Clinton wouldn't have nearly the same financial/endorsement bandwagon she has going now.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Are Too Angry About Gay Marriage on: August 01, 2015, 12:09:04 am
I've had more encounters with Korean guys on the street handing me pamphlets sharing the good news about Jesus Christ than I have from any other ethnicity. Usually those pamphlets are in rather poor English and have bits still written in Hangul in them.

Just saying.
14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should the age of consent be lowered to 14? on: July 31, 2015, 08:46:28 pm
Snip

What is wrong with you? Get out of here.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie to Colorado: Pot party is over if I'm elected President on: July 31, 2015, 04:41:29 pm
Chris Christie (RINO-NJ) obviously has no respect for state's rights.

Wait, I thought going after marijuana was part of the GOP platform?

Plenty of Republicans, including Ted Cruz(!), have taken the "states' rights" argument on marijuana.

This seems like one of those issues where the left part of the Democratic Party and the right part of the GOP want reform of marijuana laws but the "centrists" oppose reform.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why is Rand Paul underperforming? on: July 31, 2015, 04:38:24 pm
Maybe this is an example of the old cliche that you should never ask a Democrat to read the GOP primary and never ask a Republican to read the Democratic primary, but I was pretty sure a few months back that, while he wouldn't be the nominee, Rand Paul would be a major player in this race. i had Rand combining a big chunk of his dad's base with more mainstream supporters given Rand's efforts at placating the GOP establishment while still making quirky libertarian gestures to the old faithful.

It appears Rand has neither the support of his dad's people nor the support of...well...anyone else. Rand Paul is constantly around 5% in national polls, numbers his father was more than doubling this time four years ago.

Where are the Randroids?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Gravis Marketing: Trump far ahead, Jindal and Kasich surging on: July 31, 2015, 03:02:21 pm
Does anyone buy Rand Paul below 1% in Iowa?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Dubya was Never President... on: July 31, 2015, 01:54:20 pm
We wouldn't have gone into Iraq. The global recession probably wouldn't have been as bad.

He'd probably be doing very well but being the brother and son of two losers wouldn't make him the front runner.

It would probably even out and he'd be doing about the same.

You're working under the assumption that Gore beats Bush, but that's not what the OP said, the OP just asked about Bush not being president. There's also the scenario that McCain wins the GOP nomination instead of Bush, in which case we'd probably have even more wars than we did IRL.

I could easily see a situation where we have a President McCain in 2001 and by 2009 everyone is wondering how much better things would have gone with George W. Bush's promise of a compassionate conservatism with a humble role for the U.S. abroad and a commitment to avoid nation building. (Actual stance Bush ran on in 2000).

EDIT: Even if Gore was elected, there's the scenario where Gore dies in office and ultra-hawk Joe Lieberman takes the reins and sticks the Democratic Party with the blame for invading half the Middle East, making the GOP the peace party.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP-National: Trump +2 on: July 29, 2015, 11:43:11 am
Ugh. There is literally nothing Trump can say that his fans wont forgive. This is getting rediculous

I don't think it's that his fans wouldn't "forgive" so much as that his fans aren't the type of people who had much respect for John McCain or Lindsey Graham to begin with.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would Jesus Christ have banned Libertas? on: July 28, 2015, 02:12:35 am
Jesus would probably be banned after the first time he advised someone to cut their hands off in order to prevent themselves from trolling.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Robert LaFollette/ Joe McCarthy voter on: July 27, 2015, 01:54:20 pm
If you're including LaFollette Jr, it's as easy as "a Republican from Wisconsin."
22  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Role of the Western world in the refugee crisis i on: July 27, 2015, 01:52:47 pm
OK, thought experiment. You're an Eritrean refugee following the UN's rule that you reach the first safe country you can and file for asylum. You flee Eritrea into Ethiopia, a country with long-standing tensions with your homeland and humanitarian crises of its own. You proceed north into South Sudan, which is in a state of anarchic state collapse and civil war. You proceed north into Sudan, a country run by an indicted war criminal wanted by the ICC with a history of genocide in within the past decade. You continue north into either Libya, which is in a state of anarchy and civil war, or Egypt, which has undergone two revolutions in the past four years. You get on a boat and end up in...Italy? That would be your stopping point, but Italy is a Schengen country, so once you're there, why not move to some place where you can actually find work?

23  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Palestinian right of return on: July 27, 2015, 01:48:23 pm
I suppose the question then becomes, if we're ruling out "right of return," are the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of Palestinian refugees who are living in their now-ancestral refugee camps in Jordan going to get processed or settled somehow? The country that ends up holding the bag at the end of this process is Jordan.

(Yes, I get that "only" ~400,00 of the ~3.2 million Palestinians in Jordan live in refugee camps, but that's still a colossal number of people)
24  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is Orthodox Judaism on the brink of an historic schism? on: July 27, 2015, 10:59:44 am
Orthodox Jews rebelling against an overly-cold and unmoving rabbinical establishment in favor of a form of Orthodox Judaism more reliant on personal faith and the ability to interact with the outside world rather than sitting around studying all day?

Truly, I have never heard of anything like this before. What a novel idea.

(Baal Shem Tov probably wouldn't have supported the ordination of women, but he'd be too busy dancing and singing in bucolic nature scenes praising what God has made to worry about who is and is not a rabbi)
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jonathan Pollard? on: July 26, 2015, 03:24:05 pm
Also, considering that the U.S. spies on allies consistently, I think that it's hypocritical to completely play the victim card.

Every country (that has the means) spies on every other country it has interests in. If spies are caught bad things tend to happen to them. I'm not sure what fundamentally separates Pollard from, say, Aldrich Ames or Robert Hanssen on that front.

There's a lot of value to arresting spies, not least of which is exactly that element you mentioned above. Should the need ever come to do a prisoner exchange with Israel if they catch one of our spies, we could hand Pollard over.

It's just bad policy to give away potential bargaining chips like that. We have something Israel wants (Pollard), and should the circumstances align that Israel has something we want we could trade Pollard for it. Giving him up for free is just foolish.

EDIT: Should it turn out that we're releasing Pollard in return for Netanyahu lifting overt efforts to block the Iran deal, I might revise my opinion. That would be a good bargain.
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