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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Senate parliamentarian rules against some provisions on: July 22, 2017, 10:21:41 pm
Whether or not McCain comes back next week is a huge deal. If he cannot return this week, then the GOP bill will have to be delayed yet again, and the longer this ordeal goes on, the worse it is for the bill's chances because it means we'll have time for a big drawn-out debate over whether or not the Senate should override the Byrd Rule (or pass a post-Byrded Senate bill that will be untenable in the House due to funding Planned Parenthood and government money for abortion).
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / U.S. State Department changes references to Kashmir to imply Indian ownership on: July 21, 2017, 02:21:47 pm
In a recent note condemning Pakistani militant Syed Salahuddin, the State Department wrote...

“Under Salahuddin’’s tenure as senior HM leader, HM has claimed responsibility for several attacks, including the April 2014 explosives attack in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which injured 17 people,”

But after protests by the Indian government, revised "Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir" to "The State of Jammu and Kashmir," a change in phrasing that implies Indian sovereignty over all of Jammu-Kashmir, not just the parts that India currently controls.



Basically, by changing the terminology, the State Department is recognizing India's claims to both the yellow and green parts rather than just the yellow part.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US citizens will be banned from visiting North Korea on: July 21, 2017, 02:14:49 pm
Honestly, this is the most sensible thing this Administration has done in a long time, and North Korean tourism only served to put dollars in the DPRK's pocket while giving stupid people poisonous doses of DPRK propaganda.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump asking advisers & lawyers about his power to pardon aides, family, himself on: July 21, 2017, 01:53:58 am
Larry Tribe points out something valuable:

A. Accepting a pardon is an admission of guilt.
B. Since you're immune from prosecution due to a pardon, you have to testify and can't plead the 5th Amendment. You're also still vulnerable to perjury charges.
C. The President can only pardon federal charges, not state charges.

If Trump pardons Jr. and Kushner and it turns out that something they did was in violation of New York State Law, and they have to testify because of their pardon, then...um...Jared and Jr. might actually be in more danger if they get pardoned.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Today is the 1/8th point of Trump's term on: July 20, 2017, 11:40:45 pm
Not yet. It's only 181 days out of 1461.

OK, fair point. Saturday will be, then.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 538: If Clinton had won on: July 20, 2017, 06:07:46 pm
Quote
This is Earth 2, not Earth 5, where Clinton won in a landslide, or Earth 4044, where Jim Gilmore is president (it’s a cold and dark place, and I wouldn’t advise visiting).

I want a profile on Earth 4044 next.

No car tax, though.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Today is the 1/8th point of Trump's term on: July 20, 2017, 04:30:12 pm
We are through 12.5% of Trump's Administration as of today.

I just thought you all should be aware.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 3: Senator McCain on: July 20, 2017, 03:20:36 pm
Will this seat opening up suck any talented Democratic pol out of the race against Flake? I can't help but be concerned that Flake will basically get a pass if this seat opens up because it'd be such an easier seat to go for.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank on: July 20, 2017, 03:15:46 pm
The other guy Mandel endorsed, besides Cernovich, is Jack Posobiec.

This Jack Posobiec:

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/888047803305533440


10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / List Dem Senators the GOP is making a real effort to knock off in 2018 on: July 18, 2017, 11:20:58 pm
So far I have:

IN
MO
OH?
MT???

It seems like Manchin and Heitkamp at walking, which seems crazy. Are Donnelly and McCatskill the only Dem Senators who need to be sweating?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to hold campaign rally next week in Ohio on: July 18, 2017, 10:14:54 pm
Does Sherrod Brown even have a credible 2018 opponent?

The GOP might want to get on that.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Ding Dong! The Bill Is Dead on: July 18, 2017, 01:42:19 pm
By the way, I think Mondale deserves everyone he was calling naïve for doubting the bill's passage an apology.

Tongue (I'm not actually serious about this)
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: McConnell wants full repeal vote, repeal/replace is over on: July 17, 2017, 11:36:24 pm
One of these days, when we have a bit of perspective, we need a lengthy discussion of the evolution of the Senate as an institution in recent decades and how it has transformed especially in the last few years.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a Muslim that voted for trump. on: July 17, 2017, 07:36:35 pm
A wealthy South Asian businessman who thinks that his wealth would insulate him from any racist backlash.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: July 17, 2017, 07:32:16 pm
The betting markets are totally discredited. Both Bremain and Hillary traded at 85-90% literally minutes before the decisive votes started getting reported. These reflects the biases of their urban, center-left, sources of dumb money.

If Betfair had existed Since WW2, then it (or any other betting markets out there) would have had the guy who ended up winning the presidency favored in their market on election eve in every presidential election from 1952 to 2012.  Now, because the underdog wins one time, they're "discredited"?


From over half a year ago, but would the betting markets have won in 1960?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would win? Frank Underwood vs Donald Trump on: July 17, 2017, 07:29:19 pm
Deadbeat Peter Russo sure to lose Pennsylvania governor's race! He's drunk like a dog! Sad!

Deadbeat Peter Russo actually is dead. A lot of people are mentioning that F. U. Frank was in PA! Sad!
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: BCRA vote delayed, CBO score date unknown on: July 16, 2017, 03:31:14 pm
Brutal numbers for BCRA in the new Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register, taken July 9-13 with a sample of 800 adults (MOE 3.5%).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/kathie-obradovich/2017/07/16/obradovich-iowa-poll-shows-gop-corner-health-care/479189001/

Do you mostly support or mostly oppose the direction Congressional Republicans are heading in addressing health care legislation?

Mostly support: 29%
Mostly oppose: 58%
Not sure: 13%

By party:

R: 57/25/18
D: 5/87/7
I: 25/63/12



Polls like these don't matter. Trump could ground his voting base to dirt and they'd still vote for him

They matter quite a bit if you're Rod Blum in R+1 IA-01 or David Young in R+1 IA-03.
18  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: can you just UNBAN LIBERTAS on: July 16, 2017, 03:26:34 pm
This would be a serious error.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Committee files to draft Dwayne Johnson for president on: July 16, 2017, 03:16:52 pm
I don't think he would pick Hanks as his running mate.  He will probably pick a more experienced politician (Bernie would be a good choice). But he could certainly win.

Dwayne the Rock Johnson is, at least as of last year, a Republican. Even if he did become a Democrat for this run, why the hell would he run with Bernie rather than someone presumably closer to his thought process?
20  General Discussion / History / Re: Roosevelt Plan on: July 16, 2017, 03:13:19 pm
Few huge problems here:

A. If Poland is still losing the land it lost to the USSR, no way in hell are you going to let Germany keep 1937 borders (or 1937 borders without East Prussia, it looks) regarding Pomerania and Silesia. It looks like this map is based on the crazy premise that the USSR ends up giving Poland its land back, which was never going to happen. Poland, with this Prussia as its neighbor and without the Soviet land, would be a very sad, thin oval centered around Warsaw with Gdansk and Krakow as its top and bottom.

B. Super-Bavaria would be stupidly wealthy in comparison to the others on this map (even after Hesse eventually gets the International Zone back).
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Theory: Trump will run as an independent in 2020, win or lose on his own terms on: July 16, 2017, 03:04:39 pm
No, Trump is not beatable in the Republican primary.

Krazen is right, and that's true even if Trump's approvals with Republicans dips somewhat. So far, his loudest GOP critics have either been fringey weirdos like Justin Amash or has-beens like John Kasich, neither of whom is anywhere near close to the consensus of the GOP.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: July 16, 2017, 11:13:51 am
Might as well ask how much Bush accomplished in his last two years after the Democrats retook Congress.

Pretty much nothing for most of it because Bush had mentally checked out of the Presidency at some point in 2006 and was just waiting out the end...until the financial crisis started and they had to shove through TARP.

Presidents don't do a lot with hostile Congresses in terms of domestic affairs. (Congress basically doesn't give a s**t about foreign policy so Obama, like Bush before him and Trump after him, gets pretty much an open hand to do whatever)
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 59% of Millennials Raised in a Church Have Left. 80% think Church not important on: July 16, 2017, 10:56:32 am
People tend to get more religious after they have children, and Millennials are a famously child-shy generation so far, so we'll see if this continues.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fox News host: "Hillary Clinton would sell her daughter to be President" on: July 15, 2017, 04:44:29 pm
http://www.mediaite.com/online/fox-news-host-soulless-hillary-clinton-would-literally-sell-her-daughter-to-be-president/

Quote
During last night’s broadcast Fox News’ The Five, co-host Lisa Boothe tore into former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, claiming that she was so craven that she’d sell her only child to become leader of the free world.“

We’ve also seen so much self-righteous indignation to people that have no business being self-righteous,” she exclaimed. “I absolutely love the fact that Robby Mook is talking about this.”

Boothe, filling in for regular co-host Kimberly Guilfoyle, then pivoted to lobbing attacks at Clinton, arguing why she feels Clinton and her allies have no business being the “voices of authority on morality.”

“He literally worked for the most soulless person on this planet who would literally sell her daughter to be president,” she stated. “If she could sell her only child to be president. I mean, that’s how much she wants it.”

But...um...Chelsea is still her daughter and Clinton is not president.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Jr./Russian lawyer meeting: Jr. knew info was part of Russian Gov effort on: July 15, 2017, 03:55:03 pm
We need a Nixon Impeachment thread so I can go full EnglishPete. I keep wanting to argue that Nixon's impeachment was a real witch hunt by Tip O'Neill and his Democratic gang but keep feeling the thread isn't the right place for it. OTOH, it might not be the wisest thing to demonstrate my rabid Nixon bonafides.

Eh, it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.

As you were.

Go for it. History board is open for that sort of thing.
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