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1  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: when will reilgous influence die on a politcal level? on: Today at 06:11:33 pm
What is this idea?

Religiosity in the US has moved on a sine wave curve for centuries now. We're at a low ebb, at the moment, sure. That just means it's a couple of years before the Sixth Great Awakening.

Remember I said this.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most negative election ever ? on: Today at 05:47:50 pm
1828 without a doubt.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: Today at 04:27:51 pm
Whether  Trump is Carter 1980 or Reagan 1984 depends on how he actually does as President. He hasn't even been sworn in yet.

After we see what, exactly, four years of Trump is like, then we can have this discussion.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What state result was the most surprising? on: December 02, 2016, 01:52:39 am
I'll submit a dark horse: Florida.

Every analysis would've had Clinton winning there based on the election results. She massively outperformed in FL and showed fantastic voter turnout...

And got beaten by Donald Trump's ungodly stunning turnout. Trump's turnout in Florida is basically totally unprecedented.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If 2 years ago today someone showed you the final Presidential results map... on: December 01, 2016, 11:27:28 pm
We would have HAD to have known that something weird was going on with Utah's shading

That plus ME-02, which makes sense in retrospect but would've seemed ridiculously outlandish two years ago.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The tipping point state is... on: December 01, 2016, 11:25:53 pm
Wisconsin! Now that late-counting provisionals are in in PA, PA's margin has shrunk to ever-so-slightly narrower than WI's.

Tipping point state is an ultimately-meaningless stat, but it's fun nonetheless.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Texas on: December 01, 2016, 11:23:35 pm
did they ever attribute the Democratic trend in Texas to anything?  Just growing latino vote?

Not just that, there was a massive swing against Trump among well-to-do white suburban Republicans around Dallas and Houston, "well-to-do white suburban Republicans around Dallas and Houston" is basically the core of the TXGOP these days. A lot of it is personal distaste for Trump and probably won't reflect towards other Republicans.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If someone told you in 2013 that it would be 306-232 GOP in 2016 on: December 01, 2016, 11:21:10 pm
map 2, I would not have guessed Pennsylvania going Republican, and I still don't really understand exactly what happened.  We were told Hillary needed a big win in Philly... she got that... we were told Hillary needed to win the Philly suburbs... she got that... Was the turnout just amazing in rural Pennsylvania, or more exurban parts of suburban counties?

The biggest problem is that Clinton utterly collapsed in A. rural PA and especially B. Northeastern PA, where Obama won and she got demolished.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What caused PA to slighly tighten just now? Trump margin fell 6k. on: December 01, 2016, 01:27:21 pm
Pennsylvania Statewide Count now complete...with Philadelphia completing their Provisional Ballot Count.

Trump 2,961,875
Clinton 2,915,440

Clinton lost PA by 46,435 Votes.

You misread the tweet. That's the total statewide as of completion of Philly. There are still a few odds and ends provisionals elsewhere, but not many.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was this the most significant election of recent times? on: December 01, 2016, 11:29:10 am
It's the most significant election...since the last one and until the next one. Every election is The Most Important Ever until it isn't.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / If a seer told you before election that Trump would get 46%... on: December 01, 2016, 02:38:24 am
On Nov 7th, a strange man offers you your fortune. He tells you that on Election Day, Donald Trump would receive 46% of the Popular Vote. He will give no other information.

Who do you assume will win?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Clinton 2016 got fewer raw votes than Kerry 2004 in 19 states (including NY!) on: November 30, 2016, 08:52:26 pm
PA, IA, WV, ME, RI, OH, VT, MN, TN, AR, MI, OK, ND, LA, MO, SD, WY, NY, KS

In all 19 of those states, Hillary Clinton (who got over 65 million votes nationally in an election where over 135 million votes were cast) got fewer votes than John Kerry (who got 59 million votes nationally in an election where 122 million votes were cast).

Hillary Clinton got the lowest vote total for a Democrat in West Virginia since women's suffrage, healthily underperforming Cox 1920's total. She got half the votes that John Kerry got there 12 years ago.

In many other states the decline is similarly staggering, including Clinton's adoptive homeland of Arkansas, where John Kerry got some 90,000 more votes than she did.

Again, this isn't a decline in percentage. This is a decline in raw count over an election 12 years ago over a candidate she got six million more votes than. In 19 states! John Kerry's total would have handily beat Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan and would've lost by a razor-thin margin in Pennsylvania.

We're not talking about some nostalgic hazy time when Democrats wore overalls and hardhats. This is wind-sailing, Portuguese heiress wife, French-speaking elitist flip-flopper John Kerry.

What the hell is wrong with this picture?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What caused PA to slighly tighten just now? Trump margin fell 6k. on: November 30, 2016, 07:47:24 pm
There's nothing weird about provisional ballots, which overwhelmingly come from minority voters, overwhelmingly going to Clinton.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Dems need an autopsy -- they are now a completely regional party. on: November 29, 2016, 10:07:11 pm
The Democratic Party is sick, but it's an institution that has been through far worse illnesses: the 1850s-70s, the 1890s-1900s, especially the 1920s...

It'll bounce back.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump claims "millions of people" voted illegally. on: November 27, 2016, 07:20:36 pm
Just to emphasize how completely and utterly insane this is, Trump is alleging that a minimum of about 1-in-30 Clinton votes was illegally cast.  This guy is unreal.

Not to mention saying that ~2% of the total votes cast in an election THAT HE WON were fraudulent, which if true would strengthen the case for an audit.
What 2%? In what election?

This one. Trump's claim is that millions of votes (multiple millions) are fraudulent. Therefore, at a minimum he means 2 million votes, or 1.5% of the total voting electorate, are fraudulent. That is a serious accusation for the President-elect to mean and calls doubt on the legitimacy of the election, the one that he won.

If he had any common sense he'd just shut up about this issue, rather than trying to open up the can of worms with the (wild, unfounded) claim something like 1/60 votes nationally were fraudulent.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did the Sanders challenge cause HRC to lose the general election? on: November 27, 2016, 04:19:12 pm
This idea that candidates somehow benefit from field-clearing and that we should make their primaries as easy as possible is bs. If the Democratic Party hadn't intimidated everyone except a kooky old radical from Vermont out of the race, Clinton might have actually benefited from practice against serious competition. As is, she was in an absurdly tight race against Bernie Sanders and it just goes to show just how weak a candidate she was that she wasn't able to put him away right from the start.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump claims "millions of people" voted illegally. on: November 27, 2016, 03:57:42 pm
Just to emphasize how completely and utterly insane this is, Trump is alleging that a minimum of about 1-in-30 Clinton votes was illegally cast.  This guy is unreal.

Not to mention saying that ~2% of the total votes cast in an election THAT HE WON were fraudulent, which if true would strengthen the case for an audit.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump claims "millions of people" voted illegally. on: November 27, 2016, 03:48:40 pm
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
2:30 PM - 27 Nov 2016

OK, Donald. If millions of people voted illegally, let's see you produce...10 of them.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Campaign Counsel: "We'll participate in recount" on: November 27, 2016, 01:22:48 pm
The bottom line, these recounts are not going to change anything.

If the Clinton campaign really thought a recount might change the results, they would have initiated one themselves.

Clearly, that confirms beyond any question that the Clinton campaign knows a recount will not change any of the results in their favor.

To the Democrats and other malcontents who did not get the memo:

You lost.

Get over it.  

The people didn't vote for Trump.

He has no mandate like Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

We have every right to resist his vision of America which the majority of this country rejected.
Technically, the majority rejected Clinton also.


Sadly the perennial favorite Governor Didntvote has never agreed to serve a term as President.

Someone (not me) needs to make a map of the winners of various states with "Didn't Vote" as a candidate.

Didn't Vote "only" got 41.5% of the vote, so presumably it lost some states and wasn't a nationwide sweep.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 2 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 26, 2016, 06:02:26 pm
Chances that Clinton's vote total exceeds Obama 2012?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newest Ohio vote dump decreases trump's margin by 22k, gives hrc loraine C. on: November 26, 2016, 12:30:31 pm
it's not like you guys have anything remotely resembling a mandate.  It's quite possible that when all is said and done Trump will have lost the popular vote by over 2%.

I can't help but wonder what conservatives would be saying if the situation was reversed and it was Democrats who, in over a generation, had only initially won the White House each time despite a plurality of the country voting against them? There arguably hasn't been a true conservative mandate in a long time, and unlikely to be one in an equally longer amount of time.

-

In regards to the other comment - while I accepted it a while ago, I definitely do not fault others for looking for any chance to keep a sexual predator conman out of the White House.

Bush 04 had a reasonably solid, if narrow, win.

It's kind of amazing that Trump, with 46% of the vote, massively exceeded the electoral total that Bush did with 51% of the vote.
22  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: when will reilgous influence die on a politcal level? on: November 25, 2016, 06:02:24 pm
What is this idea?

Religiosity in the US has moved on a sine wave curve for centuries now. We're at a low ebb, at the moment, sure. That just means it's a couple of years before the Sixth Great Awakening.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Likelihood PA, MI and/or WI switch until certification on: November 25, 2016, 04:12:53 pm
A lot of the really late counts, like the Ohio stuff today, are provisional ballots that the state has to individually examine and decide whether or not the voter was a legal voter or not. By definition those votes can't be counted immediately on election day.

EDIT: Provisional ballots usually overwhelmingly favor Dems.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump wins, which candidates will honor their pledge to endorse the nominee? on: November 25, 2016, 04:09:36 pm
I did really well!

I mean, who could blame me for assuming that Jeb would have no backbone? I was proven wrong by Jeb!
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Reagan Democrats not dead after all? on: November 24, 2016, 04:50:44 pm
This is a new cohort. These aren't the Reagan Democrats, they're the Trump Democrats.
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