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September 29, 2016, 01:43:16 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In which of these Romney states is Hillary the most competitive? on: September 18, 2016, 02:22:53 pm
NC is the only Romney state I could see Clinton carrying.
2  General Discussion / History / Re: Would these individuals still be a Democrat or Republican? on: September 18, 2016, 02:20:50 pm
I think Willkie and Dewey might still be Republicans, and I suspect Smith would still be a Democrat. Garner wouldn't fit very comfortably into the modern Republican Party, and Richard Russell would be an awkward fit in the modern GOP as well, but I think they would be Republicans (even though they wouldn't be thrilled about it. I think Rockefeller would be a Democrat, but he certainly wouldn't be a politician. Warren would 100% be a Democrat.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama cripples AIPAC on: September 18, 2016, 02:15:09 pm
Syria isn't exactly in a position to invade anyone, let alone Israel, any time in the foreseeable future. The Syrian military, while up from its 2014 lows, is still barely over half the size it was in 2011, and it's fighting many armed factions within its own borders.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: White Privilege on: September 17, 2016, 06:42:54 pm
I've always taken a strong stance against white privilege.  When I look at Chelsea Clinton, I see someone with a high paying job with no qualifications other than her last name.  Then there's her mother who got a pass on treason because of her high status within the ruling class regarding her e-mails that she allowed to go unprotected.  Of course we all know of the Kennedies and their privilege.  Ted Kennedy's opportunities should make those of us in the equal rights movement sick.  We can't forget Matt Damon championing public schools and criticizing Republicans over their stances on education and then throwing a hissy fit like a seven year old girl when his kids aren't accepted by an elite private school.  Jay Rockefeller and Diane Feinstein seem to have done well just by having their last names.  What can the common man do to make things better in America for those of us who don't come from white privilege? Or when Democrats talk about "white privilege" do they really mean something else? 

In which a Republican discovers intersectionality.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama cripples AIPAC on: September 17, 2016, 06:15:54 pm
It's taken decades, but it's good to see we finally have a leader who is willing to openly consider whether our ridiculously one-sided deal with Israel in which we ignore them spying on us and turn a blind eye to their bad behavior while supplying them with billions of dollars carte blanche is actually in our national interests. The United States gets absolutely nothing from its "alliance" with Israel and it's about time the government finally woke up to its strategic folly in committing to this relationship.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump takes to the stage to the tune of 'Do You Hear the People Sing' on: September 17, 2016, 05:51:38 pm
Don't tell him that everyone in that song ends up brutally shot in the second act.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would jfern have supported the Soviet invasions of Hungary and Czechslovakia? on: September 17, 2016, 05:47:15 pm
"Support" isn't the right way to describe it.

JFern 1956: "Why are we talking about what's going on in Hungary when brutal imperialists in Britain and France are invading Egypt as we speak? Hungary's a sideshow."
JFern in 1968: "Yeah, I'm a bit more concerned about the genocidal conflict in Southeast Asia than I am about whether some kids in Prague are getting roughed up. Priorities."
8  General Discussion / History / Re: In world history, which great conquerors were great rulers too? on: September 17, 2016, 05:44:35 pm
William The Conqueror

This is a joke, right?
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The tie that saved Rome. Do Western nations need a State Religion? on: September 17, 2016, 05:39:24 pm
The failure of historicity here is amazing.

First, Constantine did not establish a state religion in Rome, Theodosius did seventy years later.
Secondly, none (and I do mean none) of the problems of the Tetrarchy era were caused by the multiplicity of gods worshipped in the Empire.  The only religious tension that existed was between the state and Christianity, or to a lesser extent, between the state and Zoroastrianism/Manicheanism, and in the former case, it was a question of patriotism first and foremost (Christians are unwilling to pray to the Emperor as a God or worship at the Altar of Victory: does that mean that they hate the Emperor and oppose Victory?).
Thirdly, In whose crazed, fevered imagination did the institutionalization of Christianity help Rome in the short term? It would eventually become a pretty solid foundational bedrock of the Eastern Roman/Byzantine state, but to get there, it required nearly three hundred years of violent purges, counterpurges, and doctrinal disputes (can't get to One Emperor Ruling One People Under One God without suppressing all the people with varying ideas of that One God that might undermine the One Emperor part). The doctrinal disputes destabilized the Empire consistently for three hundred years and only really stopped doing so after the rise of Islam and the fall of all the heavily Monophysite areas like Syria and Egypt to the Caliphate, leaving the Romans de facto spiritually homogeneous through loss of the heretical areas.

10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should calling a moderator "dumbfock" be a bannable offense? on: September 17, 2016, 03:49:37 pm
Just for reference, I didn't want Jamespol banned for that, Dave decided that that was unacceptable and unilaterally pulled the trigger there.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: USA Freedom Girls sue Trump campaign on: September 06, 2016, 07:23:49 pm
Deal from strength or get crushed every time.

(Their pop-ish dance remix of Over There is one of the most amazing things from this election)
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Describe a Reagan 1980, Mondale 1984 voter on: September 06, 2016, 12:33:23 am
I figure this one should be tough, but such people exist somewhere. Go for it.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would John Brown have voted for if he was alive today? on: September 06, 2016, 12:28:01 am
John Brown wouldn't be voting, he'd have had his suffrage stripped due to felony conviction after he decided to try to shoot up a federal base.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: W. Weld: CPD could lose tax-exempt status if it doesn't include Lib. Ticket on: September 06, 2016, 12:26:34 am
10% would be a better cutoff than 15%, but the rules were set forever ago.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Marijuana 2016! on: September 05, 2016, 05:37:24 pm
This isn't regarding the referendums on the issue taking place this year, but does anyone know if there any chance that Marijuana is legalized nationwide via Supreme Court?

Not going to happen. Even if the federal laws against marijuana end, the states are perfectly within their rights to ban it.

One famous example: Prohibition ended in 1933, but 18 states kept their state Prohibition laws on the books and were completely valid. The last of these was Mississippi, which had Prohibition as a state law until 1966(!).
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will Iowa's PVI be this year? on: September 05, 2016, 02:16:15 pm
I put R+2, but I wasn't thinking Cook, should've put R+1. A scenario where, for example, Clinton wins nationally by 5 and wins Iowa by 2 is about where I think that state is.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is the race tightening? on: September 03, 2016, 12:08:55 am
Did people really think Clinton's post-convention bump would last forever?

The race is reverting from C +7-8 to C +3-4, overall. That's totally natural.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538: The GOPís Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill on: August 16, 2016, 01:18:23 pm
In the end, all but maybe two or so of the competitive Senate races will break to the Dems (if I had to guess, AZ and OH will be the two seats the GOP keeps). Dems are looking at a net gain of 8-10 right now.


8 is very possible. Contested races tend to all break in the same direction.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way? on: August 16, 2016, 01:04:22 pm
Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Say something nice about the other party's nominee on: August 15, 2016, 10:21:26 pm
I did this in 2008 between Obama and McCain. I forgot to do one in 2012.

If you're backing Clinton, write something nice about Trump.

If you're backing Trump, write something nice about Clinton.

It's a good reminder that we're all fundamentally on the same team.

I like Donald Trump's commitment to repairing and rebuilding American relationships with Russia, which have been rough for over a century now. This takes incredible courage from a Republican Party nominee.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Millennial Voters (Clinton v Trump "Feels Like a Joke") on: August 14, 2016, 03:50:39 pm
2016 is also the last election where, by any serious definition, the youngest voters are millennials. (I've always used 1983-2000 births so that Gen X can extend 1965-1983 rather than just 16 years, but others are doing 1981-2000 and that's fine as well).

Of course, like with any "generational cohort," there's a huge difference between someone in his/her early 30s today and someone in his/her late teens today in terms of what events are critical to shaping their worldviews. The youngest voters today are too young to remember 9/11 or the decision to go to war in Iraq, older Millennials had those as the defining political battles of their coming of ages. Not to mention the huge difference between those out of college and in the workforce when the 2008 crash hit and those still in college or high school at the time.

It's also interesting to me that this "generational conflict," when it's brought up, is framed as Baby Boomers vs Millennials. No one cares about the Gen Xers, apparently.
22  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: August 12, 2016, 08:38:37 pm
I don't think the existence or nonexistence of God is particularly critical or even all that important to the survival of religions. I'm not sure that such a proof would really fundamentally change much at all.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Trump end up with a higher raw vote total than Mitt Romney? on: August 09, 2016, 12:04:00 am
60,934,407 is the over/under here.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Gore '00/Kerry '04/ Obama '08&'12/Trump '16 voter on: August 08, 2016, 11:13:42 pm
A pretty typical working-class White Democrat who's "had enough". I think there will be quite a few such voters.

Most of that type of voter already defected and voted Romney in 2012. Remember, this is someone who voted for Kerry over Bush and then voted for Obama...twice.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce) on: July 30, 2016, 10:50:08 am
I think the "don't trust a polling firm no one has ever heard of before" rule applies in this case.
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