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4551  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 24, 2006, 05:45:48 am
New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Forsa, 08/23):

CDU 30%
SPD 28%
Left.PDS 24%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
NPD 4%
Other parties 3%
4552  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: August 23, 2006, 08:59:48 am
Without having weighted any question:

Grne 85
SP 75
KP 70
VP 35
BZ -25
FP -75
4553  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France shows her weakness once again on: August 20, 2006, 06:43:27 am
As of now, Germany will provide mostly naval forces to patrol the Lebanese waters and as well as some airlifting capabilities.

The discussion in Germany is taking place along the line of "Given the history of Germany concerning Jews are we allowed to put troops anywhere near Israel? What if a German soldier accidentally shoots an Israeli?"

SPD, CDU and the Greens seem to be more or less in favor of sending a German contingent... FDP, the Left Party.PDS, and the CSU opposed a German participation so far.
4554  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 20, 2006, 05:15:59 am
New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, theres a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

That's correct.

And other options aside from a SPD/Left.PDS/Green coalition (more or less in the order of its likelihood) would a be Grand coalition, a SPD/Green/FDP coalition, or a CDU/Green/FDP coalition.



A little political history of Berlin: From 1991 to 2001, Berlin was governed by a Grand coalition under Eberhard Diepgen (CDU). Then, the city government became involved in a major financial scandal, which left Berlin literally bankrupt. Although the SPD was probably not totally innocent either, it was mainly the fault of a a number of leading figures within the CDU.

As a result of the scandal, the coalition broke and through a motion of non-confidence in the Abgeordnetenhaus, a SPD/Green minority government led by Klaus Wowereit (SPD) was installed. Early elections were also called. Although the SPD clearly won the election, the SPD/Greens coalition failed to win a majority.

Then, talks about the formation of a coalition between SPD, Greens, and FDP began. However, after several weeks/months of negotiations, the talks failed and the city-state ended up a with a SPD/PDS coalition instead. Some people from the CDU and FDP claimed that this had been Wowereit's plan in the first place and that the talks between SPD, Greens, and FDP had only served as an alibi for him to form a coalition with the PDS in the end, but no one will ever be able to prove this. Plus, the SPD/Greens and the FDP weren't exactly best friends either and started those negotiations because they had not much choice.

Because of their involvement in the financial scandal, the motion of no-confidence and the subsequent defeat at the polls (1999 election: 40.8%; 2001 election: 23.8%), the CDU was never quite whole again. Since 2001, the party is mostly characterized by the bitter internal fights between different factions and the lack of any clear or strong leader. In fact, the CDU failed to find a convincing candidate to lead their campaign in the upcoming 2006 coalition. Instead they were forced to recruit someone from outside of Berlin: Friedbert Pflger, currently a secretary of state in the German ministry of defence and Bundestag member representing a constituency in the state of Lower Saxony. In other words: The CDU in Berlin is f****d. Wink
4555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 19, 2006, 06:29:42 pm
New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%
4556  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: B5 forever on: August 18, 2006, 11:22:45 am
"Actually.  Now that you mention it ... ."

I vote for that consummate politician Londo Molari, of the House of Molari.  I believe that he is the only character to be both head of government and head of state.  He is also the second to be head of state, behind Sheridan (if B5 qualifies as an independent state); of course, it wasn't around when Sheridan went beyond the rim.


The poll is for Londo's retarded brother, Lando.

Btw, does anyone know why the surname of Londo's brother is Calrissian? Was he given up for adoption or something like this? Cheesy
4557  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: B5 forever on: August 17, 2006, 08:04:48 am
G'Kar/Lennier.

What hinders me from voting Ivanova is that right-wing hack she picked as her running mate. Tongue
4558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: August 16, 2006, 10:32:38 am
During the campaign everyone is working against each other and the real coalition agreements will be made after the election. During the campaign the Greens denounced the Social Democrats as "weak" and that they are doing everything to lose the election and therefore made the Conservatives their main target. So, there are no real preferences among the Greens. Ideologically they are more on the SDs side but we never had a Red-Green Coalition here, so i dont know if they want a coalition with the SD instead of the Conservatives. We have a VP-Green coalition in Upper Austria which is doing very well. Together with Salzburg it has the lowest unemployment rate in Austria at 3%. So, people like black-green.

Ah, thanks.



And there will be 12 debates between the parties starting Sept. 5.

12? Within three weeks? Wow. Won't the public become rather tired of it soon? Wink I imagine that the TV ratings will be very low in the end.
4559  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: August 16, 2006, 06:05:08 am
New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

VP - 39%
SP - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FP - 6,5%
BZ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SP/Green coalition?

With the BZ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a VP-SP coalition, SP-Green or VP-Green. VP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then VP-Green over SP-Green.

Wouldn't both the SP and the Greens prefer to form a coalition with each other? Or do they fear a possible backlash? Is the Red-Green coalition really that unpopular?
4560  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: August 16, 2006, 05:08:57 am
New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

VP - 39%
SP - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FP - 6,5%
BZ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SP/Green coalition?
4561  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 15, 2006, 05:55:47 pm
New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Emnid, 08/12):

CDU 31%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
WASG 3%
NPD 3%





4562  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 11, 2006, 01:22:17 pm
I wonder if the SPD will be able to regain control of Lower Saxony. Is Sigmar Gabriel running again? Something tells me the SPD are grooming him for the office of Parteivorsitzender...

That's a local election in Lower Saxony. Someone like Sigmar Gabriel isn't running for a town council seat. Wink
4563  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 10, 2006, 03:48:19 pm
Ah, and finally I got a excuse to behave like a chauvinist....


Here's perhaps something for BRTD's "hot communist rebel" collection. Cheesy



That's Lucy Redler, the leader of the WASG in Berlin.
4564  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 10, 2006, 03:27:11 pm
The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.

Something like the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria Wink What is the treshold for being in the house in Berlin ? 4% or 5% ? If its 5%, then the WASG has to battle. MVP is also interesting to watch. Whats the treshold there ? I hope the Nazis (NPD) stay out of the state parliament, currently polling at 4%.



Threshold is 5% for federal and state elections everywhere in Germany.

Local elections are a different case. In Lower Saxony they don't have any threshold, for example.
4565  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / German state and local elections, September 2006 on: August 10, 2006, 06:56:50 am
Ah, finally I got a excuse to start another topic about German politics. Wink  Next month we will hold three state-wide elections here...


September 10: Local elections in Lower Saxony

September 17: State/local elections in Berlin

September 17: State elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Because its the capital, Berlin will clearly be the most interesting and most important of the three contests. Berlin has a city/state-wide legislature, called Abgeordnetenhaus (which simply means "House of Representatives" Wink ). In addition, Berlin is divided into 12 boroughs, each with its own elected legislature, the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly). The elections to the House and the borough assemblies are tradtionally held on the same day.

Coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two German states which are currently governed by a SPD/Left Party coalition. Probably not so coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two states where the local WASG chapters are vehemently opposed to the proposed merger between their party and the Left Party.PDS. As a result, the WASG is running with its own tickets in both states. The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.




Lower Saxony


Results of the last election (09/09/2001)

CDU: 42.6%
SPD: 38.6%
Greens: 6.7%
FDP: 6.2%
PDS: 0.6%

Turnout: 56.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/kw_ns01.gif




Berlin


Results of the last house election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 29.7% / 44 seats
CDU: 23.8% / 35 seats
PDS: 22.6% / 33 seats
FDP: 9.9% / 15 seats
Greens: 9.1% / 14 seats

Turnout: 68.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01wk.gif


Results of the last borough election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 30.9%
CDU: 26.9%
PDS: 19.6%
Greens: 10.2%
FDP: 7.5%

Turnout: 66.9%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01bvv.gif


Latest polls

Forsa (07/26/2006)
SPD: 30%
CDU: 21%
Left.PDS: 17%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 10%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
SPD: 35%
CDU: 23%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 8%

Emnid (08/06/2006)
SPD: 32%
CDU: 22%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 9%
WASG: 5%

Despite the bad numbers for the CDU, its also possible that the SPD/Left Party coalition is going to lose its majority. In the case that this happens, speculations about the compostion of the future government include a SPD/Left Party/Green coalition, a Grand coalition, or even a CDU/FDP/Green (currently the three parties making up the opposition) coalition.




Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Results of the last election (09/22/2002)

SPD: 40.6% / 33 seats
CDU: 31.4% / 25 seats
PDS: 16.4% / 13 seats
FDP: 4.7% / 0 seats
Greens: 2.6% / 0 seats

Turnout: 70.6%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/mv02e.gif


Latest polls

Emnid (07/24/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 31%
Left.PDS: 21%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 4%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 29%
Left.PDS: 22%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 4%
NPD: 4%

Opinion polls may show the CDU in the lead, but SPD + Left Party are still holding a slim majority.
4566  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: July 29, 2006, 03:13:53 pm
I think H-P Martin has officially announced his attention to participate in the election... under the name "Liste Dr. Martin - fr Demokratie, Kontrolle, Gerechtigkeit" [roughly translated... "Ticket Dr. Martin - for democracy, checks (as in checks and balances), justice"].

Well, I'm counting now three parties (FP and BZ being the other two) who are fishing for protest and anti-establishment votes.
4567  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: President Forever results thread... on: July 23, 2006, 05:41:28 am
Bush/Cheney vs. Dean/Gephardt (dynamism off, no negative campaigning)





Dean
PV: 47%
EV: 295

Bush
PV: 46%
EV: 243
4568  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Question about German elections on: July 21, 2006, 07:42:02 am
Wikipedia mentions how such a form of manipulation occurred in an Italian election with the use of decoy lists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_member_proportional_representation#Decoy_lists

Comparing Italian politics with politics in Germany, or any other democracy for that matter, is a severe insult. Cheesy
4569  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Question about German elections on: July 17, 2006, 09:38:14 am

Besides, the rules of procedure of the Bundestag state that a Fraktion (party caucus) is formed by the members of a single political party or the members of multiple parties, provided that those parties are not running against each other in a particular state.

Would there be a problem when CSU and CDU can't form 1 Fraktion?

Well, Gerhard Schrder would still be the Chancellor, because SPD would be the largest party in the Bundestag/Grand coalition. Wink And the presiding officer of the Bundestag would be from the SPD too, instead of someone from the CDU. In fact, counting CDU and CSU separately, the only elections where the SPD would not have been the largest Fraktion in the Bundestag were 1953, 1957 & 1990.

No, it wouldn't work... it would go against the whole identity and self-image of the CDU/CSU. CDU and CSU would officially become two parties competing with each other... and I don't know whether they could fake this for a longer period.
4570  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Question about German elections on: July 17, 2006, 02:35:42 am
If all CSU voters in Bavaria voted CSU for the individual seats, and then voted CDU on the PR, CSU would obviously not make the threshold and would theoreticlaly be awared no seats, but it'd be allowed to keep all the seats it won individually.

The CDU does not exist in Bavaria, as the CSU is non-existent in the rest of Germany.

Besides, the rules of procedure of the Bundestag state that a Fraktion (party caucus) is formed by the members of a single political party or the members of multiple parties, provided that those parties are not running against each other in a particular state.
4571  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Legislative Election - Fall 2006 on: July 13, 2006, 09:36:05 am
My personal preferences for a post-election coalition:

1) SP/Greens

2) VP/Greens

3) Grand coalition

4) No government/coalition, Austria is made a part of Germany again (beats any coalition which incluces FP or BZ Cheesy)

5) Austria is annexed by Hungary

6) VP/BZ

7) VP/FP
4572  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which fascist is more tolerable? on: June 30, 2006, 02:55:37 am
Go back to germany, fascist.
Stop insulting my country! Sad
It deserves insults. Uts a shame the german language is still spoken.

Today the Federal Republic of Germany is as democratic as the United States of America, why do you call it fascist?

If you're talking about history, no problem.

Germans have commited the most terrible crime in the history of mankind - the Holocaust.
We have payed for our crimes since 1945, and today all offenders are old men or have allready met each other in hell.
Fascist and extrem right-winged parties get now foot on the ground in Germany today.

It would be a shame if we hadn't learned out of it, but we have!

So please don't blame my country for things that happened over 60 years ago.


Why we need to break the illegitamate fascist 5-party rule in Germany. Can't you see they are stiffling democracy with their shenanigens.

Communists... Germany's political parties are all communist. Well, except for the CDU and the FDP, who are only socialists.
4573  General Politics / International General Discussion / Hamas recognizes Israel on: June 27, 2006, 07:58:07 am
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/27/palestinians.israel.ap/index.html
4574  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canadian study; 'Younger brothers more likely to be born gay.' on: June 27, 2006, 05:22:39 am
I'm annoyed that even people who aren't homophobic still think its a choice. Why would people choose to live a life of shame and ridicule?

Gays are also masochists, didn't you know that? Wink
4575  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Alexander Dubcek on: June 27, 2006, 04:44:33 am
Who on earth, other than comrades Brezhnev and Husak themselves, would have a negative opinion of Dubcek?

Well, he was a communist after all. Wink


Voted FF btw.
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