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4551  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 18, 2005) on: July 22, 2005, 12:11:50 pm
If the Linkspartei bubble (they're polling at 8% Roll Eyes in the West, ahead of the FDP though behind the Greens.) were to explode before the election, expect those votes to go straight to the SPD.

Either to the SPD or back to the place where they came from: nowhere (= non-voters).



Hoffmann and Schulz are not the first to sue against these new elections, though.

The main difference is that the lawsuits of the APPD and Pro DM wouldn´t prevent or delay the elections. I think the demand of the APPD is just reasonable and fair (although it isn´t exactly a very, eh, reasonable party), because there is indeed not much time left for the minor parties to get on the ballot.



The APPD is in a sense my favorite party even though I've never voted for them, btw.

You´re in favor of splitting Germany into a "asocial parasite zone", a "safe occupation zone" and "violence experience parks"?? Cheesy  Which one of the three zones would you choose then?
4552  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Ratifacation of The Signature & Avatar Amendment on: July 22, 2005, 11:01:26 am
Abstain
4553  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: NORTHEAST Pornography and Age of Consent Act Vote on: July 22, 2005, 11:00:07 am
Abstain Cheesy
4554  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 37) on: July 22, 2005, 10:32:46 am
I think Schroeder may be out of office in RL before we vote him off...

No.

There are 37 leaders left in this bracket and 36 leaders in the other bracket. I don´t know when Earl is going to merge the two brackets, but even if he does it tomorrow there would be a maximum of about 70 rounds (= days) left until the game comes to an end.

The elections in Germany will be held in exactly 58 days. Although Schröder will almost certainly lose, it will take about an extra month for the new government to organize itself and take office. So Schröder will at least remain Chancellor for the next 90 days or so.

So, there´s plenty of time left to vote him off. Wink
4555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 18, 2005) on: July 22, 2005, 06:10:40 am
What are the polling numbers in all the states?

State-by-state poll numbers aren´t released on a regular basis. Separate numbers for the east are now released because the election there has become a close race between the CDU and the Left Party. And the Saarland numbers were probably only made public because of the sensational result of the Left Party there.


National numbers:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Numbers for the east only:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ost.htm

Numbers for the west only:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/west.htm

Numbers for separate states:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm
4556  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 22, 2005, 05:57:50 am
Do you think that the new alliance PDS-WASG will be really durable?

Good question. Many people here wonder the same. Only time will tell, I guess. PDS/Left Party and WASG are planning to formally merge into a new party in about two years, but it´s also possible that the whole thing will break apart at some point shortly after the election.
4557  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 22, 2005, 05:43:39 am
President Köhler has dissolved the Bundestag yesterday evening and called for early elections on September 18.

Next round: The Constitutional Court. Werner Schulz (Greens) and Jelena Hoffmann (SPD), two members of the Bundestag, are still planning to file suit against the early elections... or rather against the (constitutionally disputed) way early elections were made possible.

From my point of view it´s unlikely that they are going to be very successful with their suit. However, it would certainly be, um..., interesting to see the Constitutional Court cancelling the election in the midst of the campaign. Cheesy


So, what else is new? According to the polls, the Left Party (PDS 2.0) is still the strongest party in the east and the third largest party (behind CDU/CSU and SPD) nationally. A very interesting fact is that the Left Party polls now at 20% in the Saarland (where Oskar Lafontaine has been the prime minister from 1985 to 1998). Nevertheless it´s still a rather sensational result for the ex-PDS in a western state.

The CDU/FDP majority in the polls has also shrinked even further. So, say hello to the grand coalition (provided that the Left Party does not implode somewhere down the road, which is at least a possibility).
4558  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 37) on: July 22, 2005, 04:59:59 am
Levy Mwanawasa
4559  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 37) on: July 22, 2005, 04:57:55 am
Azali Assoumani
4560  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 36) on: July 21, 2005, 06:35:45 am
Levy Mwanawasa
4561  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 36) on: July 21, 2005, 06:35:05 am
Óscar Berger
4562  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 35) on: July 20, 2005, 07:45:56 am
Levy Mwanawasa
4563  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 35) on: July 20, 2005, 07:44:28 am
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
4564  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 19, 2005, 10:10:15 am
I just noticed that the German magazine "Der Spiegel" has a special about the elections on its international website... mostly a collection of articles in English:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,k-6712,00.html



There´s also an English version of the poll movement graph Lewis posted last week:

http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,11564,00.html
4565  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 34) on: July 19, 2005, 09:45:56 am
Levy Mwanawasa
4566  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 34) on: July 19, 2005, 09:39:42 am
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
4567  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 33) on: July 18, 2005, 07:21:20 am
Levy Mwanawasa
4568  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 33) on: July 18, 2005, 07:20:13 am
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
4569  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 17, 2005, 01:03:25 pm
I'm assuming that that would be "The Left Party, PDS" if used in America and the period is because of the European writing of usings periods and commas the opposite as Americans do?

Even though I like the look of a period here better than a comma, I still think it looks really dumb when a comma is used for a decimal point.

No, I doubt that... they´re simply thinking that this looks cool, modern and stylish. At least it´s supposed to look cool, modern and stylish.  Cheesy  I wonder if they paid a PR company or if they came up with the idea themself.

And we´re also using periods at the end of sentences here. Wink
4570  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 17, 2005, 11:26:40 am
Well, it´s done.


Full official name: Die Linkspartei.PDS (The Left Party.PDS)

Official abbreviation: Die Linke.PDS (The Left.PDS)

Unofficial (but widespread) designation: Linkspartei (Left Party)

Party logo:



Same party, three different names. Confusing.
4571  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 6 (Round 32) on: July 17, 2005, 04:42:47 am
Domitien Ndayizeye
4572  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: World Leaders Survivor - Bracket 5 (Round 32) on: July 17, 2005, 04:41:51 am
King Abdullah II
4573  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How long have you been here? on: July 16, 2005, 04:37:02 pm
Date of registration (according to my profile): 03 Feb 2004
4574  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 16, 2005, 03:50:31 pm
It's not that hard to do that really. I don't think the FDP has gotten above 8% in an election since the 1980's, IIRC.

They got 11% in 1990, but this was mainly because of the reunification and the popularity of then-foreign minister and FDP leader Hans-Dietrich Genscher.



When you combine one party that was polling at 5% and another that was polling at 3% you're going to get a party that is polling around 8%. It's simple addition. While they have picked up support recently, I believe their up to 11% now, the PDS, well it really isn't the PDS anymore, is only doing well because of a complete dislike of Schröder on the left.

Well... sort of, but that´s not all. Since the idea of an PDS/WASG alliance came into existence they´ve received hell of a lot media attention (although not always positive one). In addition, Oskar Lafontaine, who is still a BIG name (he was the SPD´s candidate for Chancellor in 1990 after all), is apparently mobilizing a lot of support. And they´re now at 12% according to the latest poll.



I actually find it more suprising, but not completely suprising, that the PDS-WASG or whatever the heck their calling themselves now is polling ahead of the Greens. 

Not that surprising. To large extents they probably have totally different electorates. The PDS/WASG is running as a populist protest party trying to garner the votes of politically disaffected voters, long-term unemployed people etc. The average Green voter on the other hand is either better educated and/or more well off than the average PDS voter. And the average Green is probably also not very fond of Lafontaine´s new anti-immigration message. So, the PDS/WASG and the Greens have not that much in common. The composition of the Green electorate is perhaps even closer to that of the FDP than to that of the PDS.

Btw, the PDS is planning to rename itself into "The Left Party." (or "The Leftist Party.") tomorrow on its national convention.
4575  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German federal election (September 2005) on: July 16, 2005, 01:36:14 pm
New seat projection (in brackets the changes to the last projection from two weeks ago):

CDU/CSU - 283 (-2)
SPD - 170 (+2)
PDS/WASG - 62 (+-0)
Greens - 50 (+1)
FDP - 44 (+1)

Seats needed for majority: 305
Seats held by CDU/CSU + FDP: 327


source: election.de
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