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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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4551  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What part of your state would the preceding poster best fit in politically? on: November 18, 2006, 06:53:01 pm
Probably the city center of Halle or Magdeburg.

The rest of my state is a wasteland filled with centrists, populists, and neo-Nazis.
4552  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What if Vice Presidents were elected separately? on: November 18, 2006, 06:45:54 pm
VP's would be selected differently.  No way the Repubs would have selected Quayle or Cheney.

This would probably mean separate primaries for vice presidential candidates...?

Or would it be too far-fetched that the candidate who finishes second in the presidential primary becomes the vice presidential nominee? Bush/McCain vs. Gore/Bradley 2000. Wink
4553  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: President Forever results thread... on: November 18, 2006, 01:06:32 pm
Bush vs. Nader (me) vs. Nolan (also me). No Democratic candidate.





Bush
PV: 56%
EV: 531

Nader
PV: 35%
EV: 7

Nolan
PV: 7%
EV: 0
4554  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Can Hillary be defeated in the primary? on: November 16, 2006, 07:40:50 am
You know, I can't understand it with Hillary and 2008.  Absolutely no Democrat whatsoever wants her as the party's nominee.  I have never met or heard from a single one.  Yet it's taken as all but a complete given that Hillary will win.

Why?

You win primaries by, er, being supported and having people vote for you... at least last I checked.

When the media says that she will be nominee, then she will be the nominee. PERIOD. Wink

Who cares about supporters? It isn't so that they will have the opportunity to vote on Hillary. Cheesy
4555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 16, 2006, 07:25:21 am
Rise in turnout because postal votes weren't incorporated in that preliminary result? Just a guess... Smiley

Could be. It was reported a few days before the election, that were was a unusual high number of absantee ballots send in.
4556  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: President Forever Primaries Update!! on: November 16, 2006, 06:59:44 am
After having toyed around a while with the demo version yesterday, it seems to me that the point of the Democratic primaries is to run as one of the Hillary challengers and to be at least successful enough in order to be accepted by her as the VP candidate.
4557  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Prediction scores on: November 13, 2006, 10:07:01 am
My Prediction

Score: 49
State Wins: 32
State Percentages: 17


Damn it, I shouldn't have switched Virginia back to Republican on monday. Wink

And getting the percentages right doesn't seem to be my strength. Cheesy


And my scores for the gubernatorial elections...

Score: 53
State Wins: 34
State Percentages: 19
4558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 12, 2006, 01:52:30 pm
Final result


Dagmar Szabados (SPD): 41.04%
Bernhard Bnisch (CDU): 24.54%
Bodo Meerheim (Left.PDS): 18.55%
Tom Wolter: 6.22%
Dirk Beyse: 3.60%
Andreas Karl (NPD): 1.70%
Klaus-Jrg Stroh (Grey Panthers): 0.90%

Turnout: 32.38%
4559  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 12, 2006, 12:50:03 pm
The polling stations have closed about 45 minutes ago.


Current results (87 out of 161 precincts counted)

Dagmar Szabados (SPD): 40.97%
Bernhard Bnisch (CDU): 23.41%
Bodo Meerheim (Left.PDS): 19.16%
Tom Wolter: 6.06%
Dirk Beyse: 3.78%
Andreas Karl (NPD): 2.02%
Klaus-Jrg Stroh (Grey Panthers): 0.90%

Turnout: 25.48% (!)


It seems that Szabados will have to face Bnisch in a run-off.


Link: http://ris.halle.de/OBWahl2006/wahl.html
4560  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: James Webb running for VA Senate seat on: November 12, 2006, 07:08:11 am
My favorite comment in this bumped thread Wink (yeah, I know, I'm a bad person):


4561  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democratic Majority in the House on: November 12, 2006, 07:00:31 am
This thread is funny. Cheesy


And my favorite comment was this one Wink :

The Senate is structurally advantaged to the GOP. It's almost impossible for Democrats to take and hold the Senate in the next 20 years.
4562  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: Robert Byrd will be 4th in line to the President on: November 11, 2006, 08:18:07 am
Who came up with the idea of placing the President pro tempore of the Senate 3rd in the line of succession anyway? Sounds to me like a immensely stupid idea to elevate a senile fossil to the presidency in the case the President, the Vice President, and the Speaker of the House have all died/resigned/were impeached. Cheesy

Why not go on with the Secretary of State after the Speaker of the House?
4563  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Prediction scores on: November 09, 2006, 06:40:21 pm
My Prediction

Score: 49
State Wins: 32
State Percentages: 17


Damn it, I shouldn't have switched Virginia back to Republican on monday. Wink

And getting the percentages right doesn't seem to be my strength. Cheesy
4564  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Person of the Year 2006 - nominees on: November 09, 2006, 11:43:15 am
Borat interviewing Nancy Pelosi
4565  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: German-triggered blackout exposes fragile European power network on: November 07, 2006, 11:14:28 am
I didn't do it! Cheesy

I wasn't affected either, since I'm living in East Germany. Wink
4566  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Election - October 1, 2006 on: November 07, 2006, 10:40:10 am
How about VP - FP - BZ? Or a minority government of VP with one of the two FP-remnants, tolerated by the other one?


As far as I know the leaders of FP and BZ literally hate each other on a personal level. Wink Party A thinks they were betrayed by party B and vice versa.
4567  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 04, 2006, 03:52:37 pm
Anyway, I'm pretty determined to cast my vote for Tom Wolter. If there's a run-off I will probably vote for the opponent of Szabados... which will be either Bnisch or Meerheim.

For the whole campaign everybody assumed that this election is pretty pointless, since Szabados would win anyway in the end. This new poll seems to confirm this. So, I'll cast my vote in protest of this non-competitive race. Wink
4568  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 04, 2006, 02:26:28 pm
Are the boundaries of Halle the same as for the Halle constituency (I've forgotten the German word that basically means constituency; begins with a "w" IIRC...) ?

Wahlkreis... and yes, they are. The consituency of Halle is identical to the city of Halle.
4569  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 2004: Bush/Cheney vs. Gore/Clark on: November 04, 2006, 11:53:09 am
Maps please. Wink
4570  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Halle/Saale (my hometown) mayoral election, 2006 on: November 04, 2006, 11:02:49 am
We got a poll, finally we got a poll!

Dagmar Szabados (SPD): 50%
Benrhard Bnisch (CDU): 22%
Bodo Meerheim (Left.PDS): 12%
Tom Wolter: 6%
Dirk Beyse: 6%
Andreas Karl (NPD): 2%
Klaus-Jrg Stroh (Grey Panthers): 1%
4571  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Liberals: Who is more acceptable? on: November 03, 2006, 02:32:25 pm
Bush Sr
Bush Jr

Bush Sr., of course.



Reagan
Bush Jr

Ugh, Reagan, I guess.



Ford
Bush Jr

Ford, by far.



Jeanne Kirkpatrick
Paul Wolfowitz

I had actually to look up who Kirkpatrick is. Seems like a tie... I would take the World Bank President Wolfowitz over Kirkpatrick, but Kirkpatrick over the Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz. Wink



Barry Goldwater
Tom Tancredo

Goldwater, I guess.



Average Paleoconservative
Average Neoconservative

Paleoconservative.
4572  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kerry's College Comments on: November 02, 2006, 08:14:37 am
Because of John Kerry's outraaaageous comments the Democrats are now gonna lose the next three presidential elections. Minimum. Wink



(Believe it or not, but this was even reported in German media! The congressional elections are pretty well covered in Germany anyway. Of course, most of it is heavily biased in favor of the Democrats. Any Republican who thinks that the U.S. media have a "liberal" bias, check out the German media. Not that there are many people here who are bothered about overtly pro-Democratic news coverage of U.S. politics. Cheesy
One exception seems to be the N24 news channel. This morning I saw a report about the Kerry comment and the conclusion of their correpondent in Washington was basically that Kerry simply acted like a stupid jerk. But N24 is also the channel which is airing those "documentaries" about the life on U.S. aircraft carriers and the history of the U.S. Air Force every day. Wink So, they're pro-U.S. military anyway.)
4573  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Lowest support for (SPD+CDU+CSU) ever! on: November 02, 2006, 07:13:17 am
Forsa (11/1)

SPD 29%
CDU/CSU 28%
FDP 15%
Greens 11%
Left.PDS 11%
Other parties 6%
4574  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Election - October 1, 2006 on: October 31, 2006, 07:20:38 am
Smiley A Minority Government is what the VP is pokering for. They assume it would break into pieces within a year, therefore giving the VP enough time co consolidate its power and surge ahead of the SP in new elections.

A year?? That long? Wink
4575  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Election - October 1, 2006 on: October 31, 2006, 07:00:17 am
Either a minority government by the SP-Greens which is tolerated by the FP or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SP and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the VP to vote against the government together with BZ and FP to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the VP for the shutdown of the SP-VP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SP-Green-FP proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the VP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today Ive read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the VP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SP-Greens and FP youve adressed isnt really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FP are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FP would ever work together.

Yes, but except for the whole Eurofighters thing is there much else SP/Greens and FP agree on? I mean, I don't see much common ground to justify such a constellation... even if the FP is only tolerating SP/Greens, without joining a formal coalition. The mere opposition to the Eurofighters isn't constituting much basis for any form of medium-term or even long-term cooperation. Is the FP supposed to elect an SP chancellor simply on the grounds that he's oppsing the Eurofighters? That's what I meant.
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