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4551  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What's the last movie you've seen? on: March 29, 2006, 08:30:44 am
Last three movies I've seen:

1) Das Leben der Anderen
2) Syriana
3) Munich


Will probably go to see "Inside Man" tomorrow... although the idea that Spike Lee makes a mainstream thriller sounds still kinda weird to me. Wink
4552  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: a question for the foreigners on: March 28, 2006, 05:35:30 pm
how many of your fellow countrymen, if given a map could identify all or most of the us states.

All states? Dunno, maybe about 1% of all Germans? But I have my doubts that most Germans could identify all of their country's states on a map either. Cheesy
4553  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Local Elections - some provisional results on: March 28, 2006, 05:03:56 pm
Kiev Mayor
At 8:45 PM local time, w/66.31% reporting

Leondi Chernovetsky (independent banker+MP) 31.78%
Vitaly Klichko (boxer, Pora-PRP) 23.74%
Oleksandr Omel'chenko (incumbent) 21.32%

I guess Vitali will have to continue making Milchschnitte ads. Wink

(He and his brother are appearing on German TV in a series of commercials for a small sandwich-like milk confectionary called "Milchschnitte").
4554  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli Election on: March 28, 2006, 12:35:13 pm
Tafnit at 5? Where did you see this number?

To be precise it was "4.5". I've decided this could mean 4 or 5. The source is something called "Geocartographia".
4555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli Election on: March 27, 2006, 03:34:08 pm
So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

Exactly, Shinui is pretty much dead.


These are the complete numbers for all parties. A few new polls were just released today, therefore some minor differences to the numbers I posted earlier. Note that Israeli opinion polls work with seats and not percentages:

Kadima 33-37
Labour 17-21
Likud 12-17
Yisrael Beytenu 7-15
National Union + National Religious Party 8-12
Shas 8-12
Arab parties 7-9
United Torah Judaism 5-7
Meretz-Yachad 5-6
Tafnit 0-5
Ale Yarok 0-2
Gil 0-2
Greens 0-1
Shinui 0

I'm not familiar with all of those parties. Some were probably just newly founded.

Considering that territorial concessions to the Palestinians is part of Kadima's platform, a coalition with Likud or any other party of the far right seems rather unlikely. So, Kadima + Labour should be the logical outcome. But as BRTD pointed out, those two would need additional partners for a majority in the Knesset. While Likud is too hawkish/anti-Palestinian for Kadima's taste, something like Meretz-Yachad might be too dovish/"pro-Palestinian" for them. So, I guess we will have to wait and see.
4556  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 27, 2006, 11:47:54 am
What's DVU? Are they another one of those fringe fascist parteis?

Yep. Since 2004 they're in an electoral alliance with the NPD.
4557  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli Election on: March 27, 2006, 08:55:29 am
So, the elections will be held tomorrow.

The most recent polls showed Kadima between 33 and 37 seats, Labor between 17 and 21 seats, and Likud between 12 and 16 seats.

Best chances of finishing fourth (or even getting ahead of Likud) have Yisrael Beytenu (between 7 and 15), Shas (between 9 and 11), and the joint list of the National Union and the National Religious Party (between 9 and 12).
4558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 27, 2006, 08:21:30 am
Combined result in my hometown Halle (all four districts):

CDU 31.4%
Left.PDS 25.8%
SPD 22.2%
Greens 7.0%
FDP 6.9%
DVU 2.3%
4559  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Otto von Bismarck on: March 27, 2006, 07:29:24 am
Neither.
4560  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 27, 2006, 05:09:29 am
I congratulate Saxony-Anhalt on its record turnout. Grin

Yeah, apparently all those potential DVU protest voters stayed home. The highest turnout we ever had in a state election was in 1998 and that was also the year the DVU got almost 13% of the vote.



The Left won ... Halle IV.

That's mine btw.



Baden-Württemberg map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebw06.html

Rhineland-Palatinate first vote (direct seats) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamerp06e.html

Rhineland-Palatinate second vote (PR distribution) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamerp06z.html

Saxony-Anhalt first vote (direct seats) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamesa06e.html

Saxony-Anhalt second vote (PR distribution) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamesa06z.html
4561  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 04:39:25 pm
Official result - Saxony-Anhalt

CDU: 36.2% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 26 seats
SPD: 21.4% / 24 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.6% / 0 seats
DVU: 3.0% / 0 seats
Other parties: 5.0% / 0 seats

Turnout: 44.2%
4562  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 04:07:54 pm
Official results - Baden-Württemberg

CDU: 44.2% / 69 seats
SPD: 25.2% / 38 seats
Greens: 11.7% / 17 seats
FDP: 10.7% / 15 seats
WASG: 3.1% / 0 seats
Other parties: 5.1% / 0 seats

Turnout: 53.4%


The CDU, being one seat short of majority of its own, will probably continue the coalition with the FDP.




Official results - Rhineland-Palatinate

SPD: 45.6% / 53 seats
CDU: 32.8% / 38 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 10 seats
Greens: 4.6% / 0 seats
WASG: 2.5% / 0 seats
Other parties: 6.5% / 0 seats

Turnout: 58.2%


Rather unexpectedly, the SPD has won a majority of its own, which will probably kick the FDP out of the government.




No official result from Saxony-Anhalt yet. Latest projections:


ARD

CDU: 36.2% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 27 seats
SPD: 21.3% / 23 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats
Other parties (incl. DVU which won about 3%): 8.2% / 0 seats

Turnout: 44.2%


ZDF

CDU: 36.0% / 37 seats
Left.PDS: 24.2% / 25 seats
SPD: 21.2% / 22 seats
FDP: 6.9% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.4% / 0 seats
Other parties: 8.3%

Turnout: 44.5%


Both ARD and ZDF are now projecting that the CDU/FDP coalition will narrowly lose its majority. Grand coalition between CDU and SPD seems imminent.



Effects on the federal level: If Saxony-Anhalt stays this way, Angela Merkel's Grand coalition will increase its majority in the Bundesrat by eight seats... 44 out of 69 seats are now from states with CDU, SPD, CDU/SPD, or SPD/CDU governments. Because the CDU in Baden-Württemberg fell short of a own majority it won't be a two-third majority in the Bundesrat though.
4563  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 12:21:22 pm
With the possibility of the FDP being kicked out of the governing coalition in all three states, Angela Merkel's Grand coalition could have a two-third majority in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat now.
4564  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 11:42:45 am
Saxony-Anhalt


ARD projection (6:34 p.m.)
CDU: 37.4% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.0% / 26 seats
SPD: 20.8% / 22 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.6% / 0 seats

ARD currently projects that the CDU/FDP coalition will lose its majority, "Grand" coalition likely.


ZDF projection (6:39 p.m.)
CDU: 37.9% / 39 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 24 seats
SPD: 20.5% / 21 seats
FDP: 7.0% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a slim majority for CDU/FDP.
4565  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 11:35:24 am
Rheinland-Palatinate


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
SPD: 46.2% / 54 seats
CDU: 32.3% / 38 seats
FDP: 8.1% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0 % / 0 seats
WASG: 2.6% / 0 seats

ARD projects an absolute majority for the SPD (provided that the Greens will be kicked out of the parliament).


ZDF projection (6:18 p.m.)
SPD: 44,6% / 49 seats
CDU: 33.6% / 37 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0% / 6 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a majority for the SPD/FDP coalition (but no sole majority for the SPD).
4566  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 26, 2006, 11:27:52 am
Baden-Württemberg


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
CDU: 44.8% / 65 seats
SPD: 25.1% / 35 seats
Greens: 11.7% / 15 seats
FDP: 10.6% / 13 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ARD projects a slim absolute majority for the CDU.


ZDF projection (6:17 p.m.)
CDU: 44.2% / 69 seats
SPD: 25.4% / 39 seats
Greens: 11.6% / 17 seats
FDP: 10.8% / 15 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects that the CDU is one seat short of a sole majority, would have continue coalition with the FDP.
4567  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belarusian presidential "election" on: March 26, 2006, 09:57:23 am
After Lukashenko's security forces violently supressed some of the demonstrations yesterday, Alexander Milinkievic has announced that the opposition will stop their public protests for now.
4568  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What countries will develop nuclear weapons? on: March 26, 2006, 09:43:34 am
Germany will never develop nuclear weapons, unless there's a dramatic shift of general opinion in society. Any incumbent defense minister or other politician suggesting something like this would seriously hurt his career... and perhaps even be forced to resign (depending on party and the kind of office held).
4569  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian Parliamentary elections on: March 26, 2006, 09:33:29 am
In addition, boxing world champion Vitali Klitschko is running for mayor of Kiev today. Cheesy
4570  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belarusian presidential "election" on: March 24, 2006, 05:50:01 am
A possible motivation for Lukashenko to rig the election:

Would he have won with only 55% this would have implied the possibility that, at least in theory, he can be beaten. This could have made the opposition even more self-confident and maybe they would succeed in defeating him in four or perhaps in eight years. For someone who clearly intends to rule the country for the rest of his life this is a frightening perspective. So it's better to deal with this problem now, before it gets out of hand.

He wanted a "broad mandate" to show that he has the unconditional support of the overwhelming majority of the Belorusian people and that only a tiny minority of unpatriotic traitors and US/EU-controlled troublemakers is actually unsatisfied with his rule.
4571  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Where would you rather live? on: March 23, 2006, 06:43:28 am
To play Devil's Advocate here: 1933-9 took place during a global depression where living standards sucked pretty much everywhere. Comparing it to the GDR in a postwar boom era or later, during which there was no global depsression, is thus kinda inaccurate, don't you think?

Unemployment rate in Germany...

1932: 29.9%
1933: 25.9%
1934: 13.5%
1935: 10.3%
1936: 7.4%
1937: 4.1%
1938: 1.9%

Now, some historians argue that the German economy was already in recovery at the time Hitler came to power and that he simply took the credit for it. His government also introduced extensive spending programs to create jobs through public works. And finally, the massive rearmament program helped to fight unemployemnt and poverty. When you turn a 100,000-men defensive army, which hasn't any tanks, fighter planes, or large warships in its arsenal, into a 10,000,000-men offensive force with state-of-the-art battle tanks, fighters, bombers, battleships and submarines it certainly leads to a major economic boom in the defense sector, which in turn has also positive effects for other sectors of the industry. Besides a lot of of unemployed young men were simply drafted into the new army.


What I'm trying to say:

1) Germany recovered fairly fast from the Great depression, maybe even faster than the United States.

2) In large parts, this swift recovery was achieved through Hitler's extensive rearmament program... something East Germany didn't have (and we all should be glad that it didn't have such program, we know how it turned out in the case of the Third Reich).
4572  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: More French Riots on: March 23, 2006, 05:57:15 am
I am beginning to think that if modern day France had been invaded by the Nazis they would have rioted to protest the surrender.  Then, when the Allies liberated France, they would have rioted to protest that, followed by riots protesting the end of the war, the Allies leaving and the sun setting later in the day than it had the day before.

Well, the French seem to be a very... uh, passionate people. Wink
4573  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belarusian presidential "election" on: March 23, 2006, 05:55:16 am
Protests still going round the clock. The police haven't done much so far, apparentely they might be scared of the backlash. Also, Germany is considering sanctions.

The first cracks in Lukashenko's regime might be forming.

I'm not so sure... there are reports that 400 dissidents were arrested so far. Also, the number of protesters in Minsk seems to get smaller and not larger. Apparently, the square were the protests take place is surrounded by Lukashenko's security forces. No one gets in, and those who try to leave the square are instantly arrested.
4574  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Where would you rather live? on: March 21, 2006, 03:35:42 pm
Uh... well, I know that the Stasi had a file about my father. That's mainly because he had an aunt and other relatives in West Germany and visited them several times in the 1980ies. And the Stasi did some "background checks" on him, before he was allowed to travel to West Germany, to make sure that he would actually return to the GDR. The East German goverment was kind of funny about this, they build something like the Wall after all. My father had a wife and a son in the GDR, so they figured he wouldn't stay in West Germany and allowed him to travel.

I think that it was mentioned in his file, that one of our former neighbors had been a Stasi informant, but at the time my father got access to his Stasi file there hasn't been any contact for some years anyway.
4575  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German state and local elections, March 26th on: March 21, 2006, 07:17:37 am
New Emnid polls:


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
Greens 10%
FDP 9%
WASG 2%


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 35%
FDP 9%
Greens 7%
WASG 3%


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 25%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%
DVU 4%
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