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4551  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any chance of Bolton gaining the nomination? on: March 21, 2011, 05:02:11 pm
Intrade currently puts his chances at 0.2%. Considering that Bobby Jindal has the same numbers, I'm inclined to say that he's overrated there.
4552  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 05:05:28 pm
2563 of 2572 precincts counted

CDU 32.5%
Left 23.6%
SPD 21.5%
Greens 7.1%

NPD 4.6%
FDP 3.9%
Free Voters 2.8%
Animal Protection Party 1.6%
Pirate Party 1.4%
Others below 1%


And it seems like SPD lead candidate Jens Bullerjahn will the only directly elected SPD representative in the state parliament (three for the Left, the remaining seats CDU).
4553  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 04:23:34 pm
Ah yes, Halle III... contains most of the eastern half of the city. Among other things, that's there the university is located, and lots of theaters, the opera house etc. What do you expect from a bunch of university students and artists. Tongue

Party-list vote for the Greens in some of the quarters in Halle III
Stadtteil Paulusviertel 29.80%
Stadtteil Giebichenstein 27.75%
Stadtteil Nördliche Innenstadt 25.87%
Stadtteil Altstadt 25.06%

Greens became the strongest party in all of these quarters, with the CDU always in 2nd place. Also some high numbers for the Pirate Party and low numbers for the NPD there.

Notable precinct in the Paulusviertel: 38.204.20403
Greens 36.66%
CDU 21.30%
SPD 16.70%
Left 13.90%
Pirate Party 4.71%
FDP 3.36%
Free Voters 1.57%
Animal Protection Party 1.01%
NPD 0.34%

I guess that's the highest state-wide precinct result for the Greens (and possibly also the lowest for the NPD state-wide).

http://ris.halle.de/wahl2011/zweitstimme/stadtteilewahlbezirke/wahl.html
4554  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 12:52:43 pm
It seems like in all the eastern states - the presence of such a large Left Party only means CDU/SPD or SPD/CDU grand coalitions in power in perpetuity!!

Only in states where the SPD are losers... so Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia.
4555  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Libya military operation names on: March 20, 2011, 12:33:32 pm
^^

What about Petroleum Dawn? Wink
4556  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 12:15:07 pm
ARD projection

CDU 33.1%
Left 23.4%
SPD 21.3%
Greens 6.9%
NPD 4.6%
FDP 3.7%
4557  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 12:12:00 pm
Is it possible to have a red-red-green coalition where the leader of the SPD becomes premier even though the Left party has slightly more seats because the Green party wants an SPD premier and the SPD and Greens together have more votes and seats than the Left party does?

Theoretically, but I have trouble imagining it.

Didn't happen in Thuringia.
4558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 12:06:31 pm
Hey, maybe the SPD will flip-flop on their promise not to elect a Left minister-president. Wink

But yeah, seems like the CDU/SPD coalition was re-elected.
4559  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 12:00:56 pm
ARD exit poll

CDU 33.0%
Left 23.5%
SPD 21.5%
Greens 7.0%
NPD 4.5%
FDP 3.5%
4560  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Major unrest in Libya - Gaddafi responds with brutal force on: March 20, 2011, 11:57:57 am
Also for the record, in Italy everyone supports the operation except the Northern League. But the problem is that the Northern League can let this government fall whenever they want, so that explains why Italy is playing the part of the buffoon in this operation.

And in Germany there's no party that officially supports it...

The Realo half of the Greens (Künast/Özdemir) support the no-fly zone. We don't know yet what they think about "further measures" though. The Left half of the party is certainly not so happy about it. But that's the old "protect human rights at any cost" vs. "keep the peace at any cost" conflict that exists in the party since Joschka Fischer withdrew from the pacifist consensus over Bosnia in the mid-90s.
4561  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: George Lucas v Georg Lukács on: March 20, 2011, 11:45:11 am
The existence of Jar Jar Binks tips it in favour of that Hungarian guy.
4562  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 10:45:32 am
How likely is it that this election will mirror the 1998 elections, when the DVU polled 6% before the vote, but then got 13% on election day. Could it happen that the NPD gets more than 10% today ?

Uh, nobody knows for sure (which was the case in 1998 too).

However, since I personally witnessed the DVU's campaign back in 1998 I'd say that the NPD will win less than 10% today. In 1998, the DVU was the only party to rent friggin' planes so that their party banners could be seen flying over the cities.
4563  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Major unrest in Libya - Gaddafi responds with brutal force on: March 20, 2011, 10:37:46 am
Apparently, Canada is sending 6 bombers in Libya. They left Canada on Thursday

But they don't do anything until they decide if they will be based in France or in Italy.
Great, if it take two days to take that decision... no wonder why people laugh of Canada.

Well, we have a reactionary idiot leader, a cabinet of clowns and incompetents, a defense minister who looks like a village idiot, a joke environmental policy made by oil lobbyists, a navy which is the butt of all jokes and an attitude both politically/culturally/economically which makes us look like idiots or jokes.

Makes sense, as they won't feel alone in an alliance comprising France and Italy.

In a way, Silvio Berlusconi plays the role of this war's Joseph Stalin. Tongue  He's a criminal previously allied with the one that is now fought.
4564  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Libya military operation names on: March 20, 2011, 10:31:53 am
Excluding the Canadian one (seriously, wtf ?!?), I don't even know where the british and french names come from.

Click on the Wikipedia link I posted.
4565  General Politics / International General Discussion / Libya military operation names on: March 20, 2011, 10:03:35 am
Gotta go with Harmattan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmattan

The most stupid one is "MOBILE".
4566  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 09:49:55 am
Bayern

46% CSU
17% Greens
17% SPD
  7% Freie Wähler
  4% FDP
  9% Others

Absolute Majority for CSU.

On the bright side, a 3% swing could lead to a Green/SPD/Free Voters coalition. Cheesy
4567  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Major unrest in Libya - Gaddafi responds with brutal force on: March 20, 2011, 09:42:16 am
Not surprising that Germany, as usual, opposes military intervention.

According to a poll which was released today, 62% of the German population support the "Coalition" air strikes against Libya, with 65% opposing a participation of German military in the strikes. Wink
4568  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: BREAKING NEWS: Angela Merkel almost died in a helicopter crash on Wednesday on: March 20, 2011, 04:53:00 am
According to SPIEGEL ONLINE, Merkel wasn't even on the helicopter when it *almost* crashed.

It was her helicopter though. Tongue
4569  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: BREAKING NEWS: Angela Merkel almost died in a helicopter crash on Wednesday on: March 20, 2011, 04:40:14 am
"Almost" means that it is a non-event.

The search for a successor would have been interesting though, since Guttenberg isn't "available" right now. Tongue  Probably Ursula von der Leyen, I suppose.  Unless the state chairmen could rally enough support against yet another "liberal" protestant woman.
4570  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 20, 2011, 04:17:59 am
Right.

My parents still do. My mom is voting Green, my dad FDP if my mom lets him (so maybe not Tongue ).

Turnout isn't helped by the fact that the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt was boring as always. The state has also one of the most centrist CDU state chapters and, well, perhaps the most centrist Left Party state chapter in Germany. The actual difference in policy between a CDU/SPD and a SPD/Left government is therefore negligible.
4571  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Major unrest in Libya - Gaddafi responds with brutal force on: March 18, 2011, 07:56:05 pm
Does nothing:

Germany

The position of the German government doesn't even make sense, because it seems inconsistent with earlier policies. Angela Merkel was also much more supportive of the invasion of Iraq  than she is now regarding the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya. Seems like she doesn't feel like it. Or maybe she does in fact try to keep the issue out of the ongoing state election campaigns. Otherwise it's a course of action that causes some serious head-scratching. Tongue
4572  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 18, 2011, 07:14:43 pm
Wouldn't it be a real political earthquake if a "red/green" government (or "green/red") took power in Baden-Wurtemberg? Or even if the Linke party got in and forced a Grand coalition? If I'm not mistaken BW has had a CDU or CDU/FDP state government for as long as it has existed as a state. i don't think the SPD or any left of centre party has EVER had any role in government there.  

I have to think that if the CDU loses power there or has to govern with the SPD - there will be some major repercussions!

SPD has been part of the governing coalition in Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1960, then from 1966 to 1972, and finally from 1992 to 1996.

Since 1953, the state had only CDU minister-presidents though.
4573  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 1968 -- TAKING AMERICA BACK!!! on: March 18, 2011, 02:01:58 pm
2012 - HILARY IS 45!!



Hilary Clinton/Sarrah Paylin (anti-obamba/spunky womans party) - 485 EV
Glan Beck/nute Ginrich (anti-obamba man) - 29 EV
Barrak Obama/Jo Byden (foreign borns' socializt party) - 24 EV
4574  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Major unrest in Libya - Gaddafi responds with brutal force on: March 18, 2011, 10:23:26 am
The no-fly zone resolution (and Germany's position regarding it) caused a small, but interesting debate here that certainly transcends party lines. Angela Merkel, Guido Westerwelle, and the leaders of SPD, Greens, and Left almost unanimously oppose military action, while medium-level representatives often vigerously disagree.

A German politician who had already voiced support for a no-fly zone last week was conservative CDU youngster (and foreign policy spokesman) Philipp Mißfelder. Today, harsh criticism came from one of the more prominent representatives of the SPD's left wing, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul: "There can't be abstentions when dealing with despots."

From what I can assess, the most "hawkish" top-level politican on the issue seems to be Renate Künast, parliamentary co-leader of the Greens, with some cautious support for the UN resolution. The statement of Green co-chairwoman Claudia Roth sounded a bit different though. I sense some conflict here.
4575  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Why is opebo demonizing bearded men? on: March 18, 2011, 05:42:17 am
I think it's obvious he's referring to Ayatollah Khomeini.

Really ? Didn't know Khomeini was the leader of Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan revolts.

Then you're obviously misinformed. Tongue
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