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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: February 27, 2015, 04:44:39 pm
The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

The Coalition Agreement hasn't ended, Liberals and Nationals together form the Shadow Cabinet. The Age reported (regarding a Liberal candidacy):

Quote from: The Age
Senior sources in the party say they do not expect to win but want to avoid a repeat of the Shepparton state election result which saw the Nationals defeated by independent Suzanna Sheed. They believe their vote will provide insurance for a Coalition win.

Both parties are playing down any animosity between the sides.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016) on: February 17, 2015, 04:34:54 pm
Riding boundaries have been redrawn for this election.  There will be 61 constituencies up from 58.

Do you have a link to the new map? I can commence work on an updated blank map for on here.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 16, 2015, 02:25:15 am
How long will it take for Trudeau to blame Adams' inevitable loss on the NDP?

No, I think if the internal polling is showing strength for the incumbent, he may be looking for an excuse for a possible loss in the seat. "We would have won the seat if it hadn't been for Adams" provides a useful narrative that won't spook potential grit candidates in a future election, the way a Tory hold might otherwise. It is telling, however, that they aren't even trying to find a star candidate for the riding this election.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 15, 2015, 03:50:35 pm

This, coupled with the fact that the Grits are prepared to run an erratic candidate in a riding they (on paper) would be wanting to win back, suggests a thing or two about their internal polling in the riding. If their polling suggested it was competitive, I suspect they would try to find another riding for her. I doubt they would want her in caucus following the election, particularly if there is a minority.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 10, 2015, 03:57:31 am
I think it was a mistake for the Liberals to take her. She is damaged goods and I think a net negative. They would have been better off ignoring her.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Vancouver, British Columbia or Vancouver, Washington on: February 09, 2015, 07:36:58 am
Have had serious discussions about moving to the first. Won't be happening, though, or not for a few years, at least. Still an incredibly beautiful city. BC is such a gorgeous province.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Beer, wine, or whiskey? on: February 05, 2015, 07:20:10 pm
Depends on my mood, but I'm more frequently in the mood for Scotch than the others.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Should Mitt Romney seek the Presidency of... on: February 05, 2015, 12:40:38 am
In Australia, the Northern Territory is looking for a Chief Minister (or not, depending on who you ask).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: February 03, 2015, 07:51:28 pm
If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: February 02, 2015, 08:42:48 pm
A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

Yes, in that they would both be delivered to Parliament on the back of Labor/Greens preferences.

As it stands, from what I can see, she has received more preferences than the LNP in all bar one booth, including four booths where she has received a majority of preferences (including exhausted votes). Every booth won by the LNP on a 2CP basis has been because of a high LNP primary vote and no thanks at all to Labor and Green voters and booth workers on the day.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of burning the other team's country's flag at football games on: January 30, 2015, 10:39:35 pm
You left the "juvenile" option out of the poll.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland and Labrador Electoral Map on: January 30, 2015, 10:23:31 pm
Speaking of which, I believe Quebec will be doing yet another redistribution before the next election.

&*$%!!!! Not again! I thought they were every ten years?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 10:15:34 pm
Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.


I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooroopilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

Plus a few more leafy suburbs in Clayfield. The opposite bank of the river is also gentrifying (Bulimba), but it also contains many old Labor areas. Indooroopilly contains a few leafy suburbs, but also areas that are strongly student, making Prahran in Victoria a better comparison (if Prahran had a little more of Toorak and a little less of Windsor).

I suspect that much of the reason Brisbane has less diverse electorates is because there is a greater diversity within electorates - probably due to the city council covering the Greater Brisbane Area, rather than smaller borough-style councils of Melbourne and Sydney (where wealthy suburbs are in their own municipalities, and their property rates are spent within those municipalities).
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: January 30, 2015, 09:21:27 pm
Common in Australia, but they're more quick with the knives, and they don't poll the party members.

Depends which party.  I know for a fact that Labor polls the party members.

Those Labor spills didn't happen at a leadership convention.

Yes, as Hatman notes, spills aren't triggered by party members, and the leadership vote was only extended to Labor members (rather than just MPs) for the first time prior to the most recent one.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2008 Nationwide Precinct Map Project - (Mostly) Complete! on: January 30, 2015, 04:11:00 am
Congratulations, guys, this work is incredible! Really well done!
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Nationwide precinct map project? on: January 21, 2015, 06:37:34 am
That looks great cinyc! Awesome work! And I'm also glad that Homely posted his Albertan example, which is still one of the greatest pieces of mapwork on this site.

Just a quick question, cinyc - judging from how blue most of Utah is, and how red the North Coast of California is, and how blue the central part of California is - is the key correct?
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your 5 favorite banned posters on: January 21, 2015, 01:16:36 am
yeah JSojourner left of his own volition.

I don't think he actually left, I think he has voluntarily muted himself but still logs on occasionally, which is regrettable because he was a voice of reason and moderation (with the notable exception of his one grave error, for which he took this drastic action). He has messaged me in the past twelve months, I think.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Elections where the winning party lost the popular vote. on: January 20, 2015, 10:07:40 pm
South Australia 2010 and 2014

For two elections running, the South Australian Labour party has trailed the LNP in the TPP vote, but still have remained in government. The Liberals keep running up their margins in the base, but cannot quite grab the all important marginals.

Queensland under Joh Bjelke Petersen was also amusingly gerrymandered to the benefit of rurals, so the ALP often won the popular vote but was kept out of office.

That was once the case in South Australia too (the "Playmander").  Indeed it seems to have been something the Australian Right were rather keen on.

Nothing to do with the Australian Right. In Queensland, Bjelke-Petersen merely extended what had been initially instituted by the Labor Party, who allowed regional cities such as Rockhampton, Mackay, Cairns, Townsville, etc, to be under-represented (incidentally, Labor polled very well in the regional cities at that time). Bjelke-Petersen extended it to include rural areas as well as regional cities (and rural areas to be over-represented even more than the regional cities were), but it was still Labor that had introduced this malapportionment.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / German Snipers on: January 20, 2015, 09:13:16 pm
Quite an interesting piece. Clicking on the photographer's name in the opening sentence opens his website.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas is Way Bigger .... on: January 20, 2015, 09:12:19 pm
Great site - I've been moving Australia around and covering Europe, etc.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What percentage of 1846km has Bushie walked in the last 16 months? on: January 18, 2015, 08:40:17 pm
Is this how far you've walked playing Ingress over the past 16 months?
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Wish me luck (for probable date with nice girl I met) on: January 18, 2015, 04:38:49 am
"I'll let you know" is generally not a good sign.

Yes, the prospects look grim given this response.

Yeah, I know.

Plus it even looks grimmer, because I don't even know if she has a boyfriend or not.

At least I thought it would be better to just ask her to do some winter sports together, rather than first asking her directly if she already has a BF or not.

Hey, good luck mate! Hope it goes well for you!
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in a suburban or rural area? on: January 15, 2015, 07:42:01 pm

I think there are benefits to living in either rural and suburban areas, inner- or outer-suburban, or inner-city. There are also disadvantages to living in each of these areas. The key to satisfaction in life is focussing on the benefits and not on the disadvantages.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Smid on: January 14, 2015, 06:33:37 pm
Thanks, all.

Miles - I'm working on one at the moment (long way off from completion), that will be quite impressive in the end, I think.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Most culturally "unique" of the lower 48 states on: January 13, 2015, 06:19:06 pm
California is uniquely diverse.

This alone makes it completely unsuitable to compare with the largely homogenous example given in the initial post (Quebec). I mean, just look at these demographic maps. Virtually no variation from one riding to the next! (Obviously I am speaking tongue-in-cheek)

Three maps by Hashemite:

English in Montreal and Laval by Quebec Provincial/National Riding

Another map by Hashemite:

English in Montreal and Laval by Canadian Federal Riding

Hashemite's economic maps - Quebec.

Median Household Income, Percent Low Income, Percent employed in Management roles, Percent employed in Trades, Percent employed in the Manufacturing Sector, Percent with a Degree, Unemployment Rate, Non-White (Montreal & Laval) and Percent Francophone (Northern Quebec and Lanaudière-Mauricie):

Northern Quebec/Outaouais/Laurentides/Nunavik Demographic Maps by Canadian Federal Riding

Montreal and Laval Demographic Maps by Canadian Federal Riding

Montreal and Laval Median Household Income Level by Quebec Provincial/National Riding

Lanaudière-Mauricie Demographic Maps by Canadian Federal Riding


Note - All these maps, and more, are available here
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