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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016) on: April 02, 2016, 02:03:52 am
Blank map of the new boundaries, sorry it's taken so long to put together, living life and all that sort of thing:

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread on: March 03, 2016, 05:15:28 pm
Great work, Krago!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015 on: December 01, 2015, 03:00:19 am
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015 on: November 19, 2015, 02:24:54 am
(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now Tongue)



I thought about emailing it to you when I finished it on the weekend, but decided that posting it here was simpler. I'll probably work on Saskatchewan next, unless Quebec is due next?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015 on: November 13, 2015, 11:00:39 pm
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: October 03, 2015, 08:17:01 am
EKOS: 33.4/26.7/25.6.

That's not as strange as I thought it would be. The way Graves was talking, I thought he'd have the Tories at 40% Tongue

Cons are down two percent in this poll from the previous EKOS survey.

However the previous pill had them up about six percent, which always seemed a bit high. This poll is therefore perhaps emphasising a modest increase in Conservative votes, rather than last week's exuberant increase in Conservative votes. A two percent fall following a six percent gain is still a four percent gain (or thereabouts after rounding).
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 15, 2015, 10:38:51 pm
Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%


I find Mainstreet number to be very whacky. Just two weeks ago they had the CPC at 45% in Ontario and the NDP at 21% - now they have the CPC at 33 and the NDP at 31 - does anyone seriously believe that a swing of that magnitude happened just in the last two weeks? ...and no other poll released this week has the Liberals anywhere near 30% in Quebec - they are hovering around 20%

It was very clearly a rogue poll. Looking at their crosstabs, they had a Conservative lead in every age group, with the largest Conservative lead in the 18-34 year age group (37C, 20L, 19N). I initially thought it might be a transcription error in that age breakdown, with the Conservative vote being entered against the NDP and the NDP vote being entered against the Conservatives, but it's obviously trickled through in other parts of the poll (NDP polling at just 16% in Ontario, 17% Prairies and 19% in Alberta?).

Here is the link again.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: July 28, 2015, 06:29:00 am
Does anyone know a seats calculator according to %? Thanks.

I have one, I think Earl has one, Citizen Hats has one, and someone else (name eludes me) also has one, and those ate just the ones I confident exist (although could be mistaken). I think they all (or most) work off very similar maths. That said, I'm not how predictable this election will be at the seats level.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your two favorite Canadian Provinces/Territories on: July 09, 2015, 02:54:27 am
Alberta and BC. Love the mountains, love Vancouver, love the Stampede, love the prairies and Drumheller. Really want to visit Tofino and Victoria.

Edit: I haven't been out East, but really want to visit there as well. Obviously much of Ontario to see, and Quebec, but also want to visit the Maritimes, especially PEI and Peggy's Cove.

Off topic slightly but would love to go North, too. The photos I've seen of Yukon look stunning and I'd love to head up there.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: WI: Australian Federal Election 2013: Gillard survives 26 June spill on: July 02, 2015, 03:24:09 am
On the bright side, Jaymes Diaz would probably be elected, delighting us all for what would be otherwise a dark few years.

I'm assuming this isn't a joke, but is Diaz of the Turnbull mold when it comes to the Liberals?

Diaz was a candidate in a marginal who would never have risen beyond being a backbencher. The only reason anyone knows about him is because of a disastrous media interview in which he couldn't answer a question relating to the detail of a policy and kept repeating the first dot point.

He was pretty useless but it is still disappointing that politics in the media has descended to these sorts of "gotcha" moments. He probably had never presented in front of TV media before, had probably had no media training and is criticised for his inexperience. There are more incompetent members than him on both sides of politics and it is pretty tasteless for his stumble to be dragged up the way it is. He was running in a Labor-leaning seat that probably would have fallen otherwise, but the fact is, he was never ministerial material and his only mistake was inexperience.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: June 17, 2015, 07:29:21 pm
Liberal candidate parts Facebook joke about domestic violence: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/17/liberal-candidate-deletes-domestic-abuse-joke-after-conservatives-attack/
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: June 17, 2015, 05:04:04 am
A positive review of the NDP Throne Speech by well-respected Conservative and former Director of Communications for Wildrose, Brock Harrison.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: WI: Australian Federal Election 2013: Gillard survives 26 June spill on: June 15, 2015, 04:50:43 pm
Former Prime Minister Gillard was a tough campaigner and her unpopularity was already factored into the polling. Former Prime Minister Rudd was erratic, obnoxious and an undisciplined campaigner. Labor could not have pulled out a win but I think that an incumbent Prime Minister Gillard would have held a similar number of seats as Rudd did, possibly more. I know the polls didn't suggest that, however the polls moved during the campaign, declining for Rudd, but I suspect they would have improved for Gillard.

Obvious caveat is that this would require Rudd to behave as well as Gillard did after she lost the leadership. Of course he wouldn't, and that would lead to a less disciplined campaign, so perhaps that would undermine Gillard's main advantage over him.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: June 11, 2015, 01:51:22 am
Yeah, but by 2023, a tsunami could have wiped Nova Scotia away and loons could have evolved laser beam-shooting eyes.

A tsunami hitting Vancouver would likely have a greater political impact.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canada vs. USA Multiparty Systems on: June 11, 2015, 01:26:47 am
Part of me thinks having an elected president may have something to do with it, but I'm not sure I entirely see how.

In a parliamentary system, one riding can be a Liberal-Conservative marginal, while a neighboring riding can see one of the two major parties replaced by a third party.  Every party can have a few seats in the same parliament, but every party can't share in the same presidency.

But I not sure that's a complete argument, because of course we don't elect presidents nationally; we elect them based on the votes in 51 different constituencies.  There's no reason the top two parties have to be the same in every state.

On a side note, I wonder what would have happened if Ross Perot hadn't crashed in 1992.  Would it have created a more Canada-like country?  (I remember being prepared to vote for Bush in Missouri if polls had Clinton falling into third place.  About the only time in my life I remember considering tactical voting.)  What if Jesse Ventura had been able to transfer his victory into something more lasting?

I was going to say this.

While the President is elected from "51 different constituencies" as you note, a vote for a third party is a wasted vote in the presidency because your candidate can't win, even if they could win your state, which is preventing you from choosing between the parties that conceivably could win - it's still a vote for a single position. This reinforces the same two-party system in the Congress. I suspect that if the US was a parliamentary democracy run solely by the Congress, you would have seen a dominant regional party emerge from the South, and possibly other regional parties around the country as well. The Greens potentially would have won a seat or two, and perhaps the Black Caucus would have split from the Democrats and exist as a separate party.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: One person, one vote: SCOTUS to tell us what it means on: June 03, 2015, 08:26:32 am

A better solution would be for the federal government to issue ID cards and require that they be accepted for federal elections without a further registration step.  The federal government would feed changes in addresses to the state election authorities, to permit automatic update of voter registration rolls.  States could continue to augment their voting rolls with people without federal IDs, but why would they bother?

A voter would be more likely to update the address on a federal ID when they moved, even more likely than they are their mailing address or their driver's license both of which have some everyday utility.  If a voter only thinks that a voting address has quadrennial utility, there is no benefit in keeping it current.

This is effectively how voter registration works in Australia: rolls are maintained at a state and federal level, but in effect, the states just copy the relevant bits from the federal roll.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Gerrymandering is not what's wrong with American politics on: May 25, 2015, 05:50:29 am
I think much of the issue of polarisation in US politics is driven by the primary system. Winning primaries requires appealing to the base where the threat is more likely to come from the fringe than the centre/moderates. AG's point about party membership is particularly relevant.

A way to correct this (which won't actually happen), might be to have some sort of proportional representation model to select 3 or 4 candidates per party (increasing the likelihood of at least one moderate) for the primary, followed by IRV in the General.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 25, 2015, 05:25:12 am
"welcome to the 36th century."
...
I actually don't really have a clue what that comment means, it just sounds like it probably is a rather sexist dismissal of the concept of gender equality.

36th Century is futuristic. He might possibly have been making a comment on the speed, or lack thereof, of achieving a gender balance in cabinets in other jurisdictions?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 05:37:13 am
Earl, your firm's polls, extrapolated by proportionate swing, would have an NDP win in Burnaby North - Seymour.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 10:30:21 pm
Forgive my ignorance, but do any of the election results websites provide a list of the seats that have changed hands?  I don't see that as a feature on the BBC site.  They have the interactive map, but nowhere that simply lists seats that have swapped.


I have been looking on numerous websites for the same, but haven't found a list yet.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread (Second Round is set, begins tomorrow) on: April 30, 2015, 05:33:17 am
EASTERN CONFERENCE

vs.

vs.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

vs.

vs.

Five of the final eight made it to this round last year as well.  New York, Montreal, Chicago, Anaheim, and Minnesota.  This year Washington, Tampa Bay, and Calgary are in, too.  

My predictions:

Rangers in 5
Lightning in 6
Wild in 7
Ducks in 6



Hope you're wrong, go Flames!
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How Long is Your Commute? on: March 19, 2015, 03:48:21 pm
Typically an hour and a half to two hours, but depends. If driving, it varies between morning and afternoon peak (trip home is typically faster, usually just over an hour). If train, including the time spent waiting on the platform, typically two hours.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: March 17, 2015, 07:32:52 pm
You should have an option to not use the dots if you don't want to. I'm not a big fan of that change.

Ditto on that.  I want poll boundaries; not dots.  *Please*.

The poll boundaries are still there, just not quite so clear as they were before.

EDIT: I should note that you have to change the option near the top right from "View data for Ridings" to "View data for polls"
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: March 17, 2015, 07:01:52 pm
You and Earl publish a couple of my favourite websites, and I thoroughly enjoy going through your results.

When I read your post, I was on my phone and therefore couldn't immediately open the maps to see your changes. I was ambivalent towards the idea of dots. In some respects, I prefer the old method, however the dots are clear and allow shading of the actual overall riding winner as a background colour, as you have done. Overall, I think this makes the dots a positive and I consider it slightly preferable to the previous version. Earl's suggestion of an option of switching between dots and the previous version is a good idea, however, if it doesn't require too much effort to accomplish (if it's difficult, I'm still happy with the current layout). I take it that the dot diameter reflects the margin of victory for the winning candidate (or primary vote of the winning candidate, which is roughly the same)?

My favourite addition is the ability to add multiple ridings to the sample. This was something I have wanted to see for some time, but assumed was too difficult/too intensive computing to be able to manage. Very, very pleased to see this.

The new boundary overlay is also an excellent addition.

Overall, I am really pleased with your changes.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014 on: March 16, 2015, 07:57:14 pm
Thanks, that explains a lot; now I wish we had Senate primary votes for each House of Representatives Division on hand somewhere. I recall reading somewhere before the 2013 federal election about how high Joanna Gash's personal vote was, evidenced by how Labor actually outperformed in the Senate in Gilmore. Gives so some insight into why that was a rare seat to swing away from the Coalition that year once she retired. I wonder what other examples exist akin to that one.



I was of the opinion that a Senate map was on here, but it may have been 2010. The data is not hard to obtain. PM me your email address if you want me to send you what I can find.
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