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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread (Second Round is set, begins tomorrow) on: April 30, 2015, 05:33:17 am
EASTERN CONFERENCE

vs.

vs.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

vs.

vs.

Five of the final eight made it to this round last year as well.  New York, Montreal, Chicago, Anaheim, and Minnesota.  This year Washington, Tampa Bay, and Calgary are in, too.  

My predictions:

Rangers in 5
Lightning in 6
Wild in 7
Ducks in 6



Hope you're wrong, go Flames!
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How Long is Your Commute? on: March 19, 2015, 03:48:21 pm
Typically an hour and a half to two hours, but depends. If driving, it varies between morning and afternoon peak (trip home is typically faster, usually just over an hour). If train, including the time spent waiting on the platform, typically two hours.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: March 17, 2015, 07:32:52 pm
You should have an option to not use the dots if you don't want to. I'm not a big fan of that change.

Ditto on that.  I want poll boundaries; not dots.  *Please*.

The poll boundaries are still there, just not quite so clear as they were before.

EDIT: I should note that you have to change the option near the top right from "View data for Ridings" to "View data for polls"
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: March 17, 2015, 07:01:52 pm
You and Earl publish a couple of my favourite websites, and I thoroughly enjoy going through your results.

When I read your post, I was on my phone and therefore couldn't immediately open the maps to see your changes. I was ambivalent towards the idea of dots. In some respects, I prefer the old method, however the dots are clear and allow shading of the actual overall riding winner as a background colour, as you have done. Overall, I think this makes the dots a positive and I consider it slightly preferable to the previous version. Earl's suggestion of an option of switching between dots and the previous version is a good idea, however, if it doesn't require too much effort to accomplish (if it's difficult, I'm still happy with the current layout). I take it that the dot diameter reflects the margin of victory for the winning candidate (or primary vote of the winning candidate, which is roughly the same)?

My favourite addition is the ability to add multiple ridings to the sample. This was something I have wanted to see for some time, but assumed was too difficult/too intensive computing to be able to manage. Very, very pleased to see this.

The new boundary overlay is also an excellent addition.

Overall, I am really pleased with your changes.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014 on: March 16, 2015, 07:57:14 pm
Thanks, that explains a lot; now I wish we had Senate primary votes for each House of Representatives Division on hand somewhere. I recall reading somewhere before the 2013 federal election about how high Joanna Gash's personal vote was, evidenced by how Labor actually outperformed in the Senate in Gilmore. Gives so some insight into why that was a rare seat to swing away from the Coalition that year once she retired. I wonder what other examples exist akin to that one.



I was of the opinion that a Senate map was on here, but it may have been 2010. The data is not hard to obtain. PM me your email address if you want me to send you what I can find.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Brussels Sprouts on: March 16, 2015, 04:34:35 am
They're delicious. Roast em up with some olive oil, lemon, salt and pepper.

Posts like this make me feel heretical (one of the few times I feel the need for a Like button on the page).
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Best Canadian Prime Minister Since WWII? on: March 16, 2015, 04:24:37 am
Let's see how horrible King was:

-Advocated for the Japanese internment
-His PHD dissertation was "Oriental Immigration to Canada" which argued against Asian immigration, suggesting Canada should remain White.
-Blocked Jewish refugees from the country; Praised the "constructive work of Hitler's regime"

Also, he thought he could communicate with the dead.

I was aware of points 3 & 4 on the Hatman list. He is not popular with me.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014 on: March 16, 2015, 04:14:27 am
Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

Ah, okay. And they were for L.C. results too. I didn't read the text-box until now. Tongue

The primary vote ones are Leg Council. The 2CP are Leg Assembly - they don't allocate Council preferences by booth, and Council 2CP would be meaningless. It is, however, a better indicator of "pure" party vote for various reasons (the most significant being that the vast majority are Above-the-Line party votes, plus the generally low profile of Upper House MPs relative to Lower House MPs, male them an effective tool for stripping out the effect of a popular and well-known incumbent, but not to ignore the fact that it is common knowledge that minor parties have a greater chance of winning so people are more likely to vote for them, plus it removes the effect of a well-known independent in a single Assembly district, plus any independent or minor party is on the Leg Council ballot in at least eleven contiguous Assembly districts, plus the larger number of party options reduces the proportion of minor/micro party voters allocating a first preference for a major party... In short, a major party's primary vote in the Upper House is a better indicator of party vote, than a similar value from Lower House results).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014 on: March 15, 2015, 07:34:27 am
Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 B.C election on: March 05, 2015, 07:57:14 am
Will it be on the same map? Or do I have to add it to Saskatchewan as a province I have to update?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: February 27, 2015, 04:44:39 pm
The writ for the by-election in Gippsland South has be issued. Here's the timetable:

Close of Electoral Roll - 24 February
Final day for nominations - 27 February
Election Day - 14 March

So far, three candidates have nominated:

Legislative Council member and former Peter Ryan staffer Danny O'Brien (National)
Shire of Wellington mayor Scott Rossetti (Liberal)
Public servant and activist Andrea Millsom (Greens)

For those who don't know, the Victorian Liberals and Nationals have once again ended their coalition agreement, hence why they're running against each other.

The Coalition Agreement hasn't ended, Liberals and Nationals together form the Shadow Cabinet. The Age reported (regarding a Liberal candidacy):

Quote from: The Age
Senior sources in the party say they do not expect to win but want to avoid a repeat of the Shepparton state election result which saw the Nationals defeated by independent Suzanna Sheed. They believe their vote will provide insurance for a Coalition win.

Both parties are playing down any animosity between the sides.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016) on: February 17, 2015, 04:34:54 pm
Riding boundaries have been redrawn for this election.  There will be 61 constituencies up from 58.

Do you have a link to the new map? I can commence work on an updated blank map for on here.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 16, 2015, 02:25:15 am
How long will it take for Trudeau to blame Adams' inevitable loss on the NDP?

No, I think if the internal polling is showing strength for the incumbent, he may be looking for an excuse for a possible loss in the seat. "We would have won the seat if it hadn't been for Adams" provides a useful narrative that won't spook potential grit candidates in a future election, the way a Tory hold might otherwise. It is telling, however, that they aren't even trying to find a star candidate for the riding this election.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 15, 2015, 03:50:35 pm

This, coupled with the fact that the Grits are prepared to run an erratic candidate in a riding they (on paper) would be wanting to win back, suggests a thing or two about their internal polling in the riding. If their polling suggested it was competitive, I suspect they would try to find another riding for her. I doubt they would want her in caucus following the election, particularly if there is a minority.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 10, 2015, 03:57:31 am
I think it was a mistake for the Liberals to take her. She is damaged goods and I think a net negative. They would have been better off ignoring her.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Vancouver, British Columbia or Vancouver, Washington on: February 09, 2015, 07:36:58 am
Have had serious discussions about moving to the first. Won't be happening, though, or not for a few years, at least. Still an incredibly beautiful city. BC is such a gorgeous province.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Should Mitt Romney seek the Presidency of... on: February 05, 2015, 12:40:38 am
In Australia, the Northern Territory is looking for a Chief Minister (or not, depending on who you ask).
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: February 03, 2015, 07:51:28 pm
If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: February 02, 2015, 08:42:48 pm
A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

Yes, in that they would both be delivered to Parliament on the back of Labor/Greens preferences.

As it stands, from what I can see, she has received more preferences than the LNP in all bar one booth, including four booths where she has received a majority of preferences (including exhausted votes). Every booth won by the LNP on a 2CP basis has been because of a high LNP primary vote and no thanks at all to Labor and Green voters and booth workers on the day.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of burning the other team's country's flag at football games on: January 30, 2015, 10:39:35 pm
You left the "juvenile" option out of the poll.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland and Labrador Electoral Map on: January 30, 2015, 10:23:31 pm
Speaking of which, I believe Quebec will be doing yet another redistribution before the next election.

&*$%!!!! Not again! I thought they were every ten years?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 10:15:34 pm
Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote
The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooroopilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

Plus a few more leafy suburbs in Clayfield. The opposite bank of the river is also gentrifying (Bulimba), but it also contains many old Labor areas. Indooroopilly contains a few leafy suburbs, but also areas that are strongly student, making Prahran in Victoria a better comparison (if Prahran had a little more of Toorak and a little less of Windsor).

I suspect that much of the reason Brisbane has less diverse electorates is because there is a greater diversity within electorates - probably due to the city council covering the Greater Brisbane Area, rather than smaller borough-style councils of Melbourne and Sydney (where wealthy suburbs are in their own municipalities, and their property rates are spent within those municipalities).
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: January 30, 2015, 09:21:27 pm
Common in Australia, but they're more quick with the knives, and they don't poll the party members.

Depends which party.  I know for a fact that Labor polls the party members.

Those Labor spills didn't happen at a leadership convention.

Yes, as Hatman notes, spills aren't triggered by party members, and the leadership vote was only extended to Labor members (rather than just MPs) for the first time prior to the most recent one.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2008 Nationwide Precinct Map Project - (Mostly) Complete! on: January 30, 2015, 04:11:00 am
Congratulations, guys, this work is incredible! Really well done!
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Nationwide precinct map project? on: January 21, 2015, 06:37:34 am
That looks great cinyc! Awesome work! And I'm also glad that Homely posted his Albertan example, which is still one of the greatest pieces of mapwork on this site.

Just a quick question, cinyc - judging from how blue most of Utah is, and how red the North Coast of California is, and how blue the central part of California is - is the key correct?
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