One idea that did not gain popularity...

Ok, most likely. In the signature it says:

I've lost interest in the forum and I've wasted far too much time here.

To those I consider forum friends, it's been nice and I hope to keep contact in some form.

Cheers.

The ones who don't post "I'm leaving" threads are the ones who typically have the fortitude to not return. I hope this is not the situtuation in Franzl's case.

I was looking forward to your bigotted woman GIF, but it was still an excellent story (as have been all your posts in this thread).

Slower than average. I've been told I have good diction.

Nielson was over-estimating the Coalition vote, the 6-pt swing is more of a correction from a previous bad sample, I suspect. I prefer to watch Nielson, Newspoll and Galaxy and assume the actual result is somewhere in the middle of the three of them.

I'm going to pray that what happened in BC can happen here as well. Not putting much hope into it, but that's really needed.

Yes, I'm also hoping that the Liberals outperform expectations...

[Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

Had to click "Other" because you didn't allow a "Never" option.

Methinks the Liberals will become utter, utter douchebags in their fourth term. They think they're literally invincible given everything they've been through.

How much is potentially people worried the NDP was going to have an overwhelming majority, and voted for the Liberals, assuming they were voting for a strong opposition? Much like the 2007 NSW election here.

Very close three-way in Saanich North.

My combination of complexion and hair colour results in stubble looking more like dirt. I look in the mirror and have to fight the urge to try to dampen a cloth and try to wipe it off. Consequently, I rarely let it grow long enough to be noticeable (non-shave weekends being the longest I let it grow).

1,001 always made sense to me. But in honor of Herman Cain maybe 999 would be more suitable.

He only goes by "Herman Cain" amongst his friends. That would be "Chancellor of the Exchequor Cain" to you...

Aye.

Combet is too closely tied to the carbon tax, anyway. It would be like electing Kevin Andrews, who was IR Minister during Workchoices, after 2007.

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

Maribyrnong. Inner North-Western Melbourne (more West than North).

I saw a poll, but it was (obviously) a single electorate poll, with all the caveats regarding that, and it was old, so things could have changed. It was a public poll, reported in the media.

I think Bandt, Thompson and Oakeshott are all gone, and I'm not going to try to differentiate between them - I honestly can't see Bandt winning enough primary votes, that he'd manage to offset the loss of Liberal preferences. Last election, the Liberals won 21%, of which 80% flowed as preferences to the Greens. Bandt won with 56% of the 2CP. The primary votes were:

Labor: 38.09%
Greens: 36.17%
Liberal: 21%

The redistribution didn't help Bandt, either. Not by much, but it did weaken his margin a little.

Windsor and Wilkie, I'm not sure about, both are difficult to guess. I'm more confident of Wilkie than Windsor, and I think Joyce is not such a negative - he may be from across the border, but his electorate office is only just across the border in St George, it's basically adjoining seat. He's also got his mavarick reputation, which may help, and from what I've heard, he's virtually a rock star in rural seats around the country (not just Queensland).

I think Katter will win re-election, but I could be wrong. His party won two seats at the Queensland state election, which were within Kennedy, and finished second in I think every other state seat that fell partially or completely within his electorate. I would not be surprised if he won on primary vote, and the only way for him to lose is if all the other parties cross-preferenced one another (and even that is moot if he wins on primary).

I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

Regarding Bandt, the issue is whether the sophomore surge outweighs the loss of Liberal preferences. The sophomore surge is the power of incumbency and a reflection of personal vote. It's usually worth a few percent, but I don't think it's worth the level of primary vote the Liberal candidate received last election, and who subsequently will not if the HTV cards preference Labor. I think for the Greens to hang on, their primary vote will need to be at least 45%, Labor's no more than 40%, and Liberals no more than 10%. Obviously the Liberal vie can be higher if Labor's vote is lower. I'm being a bit lazy, that ratio of 45:40:10 is usually Liberal:Labor:Greens for the Liberals to win a seat.

I'm reasonably confident that the Greens will be toppled in Melbourne, unless the Liberals decide to preference them... which, from what I've heard, is unlikely.

Feel free to use the blank map in the gallery to post a colourful picturesque map of your predictions.

Yeah, I heard something about a bad poll for Labor in Newcastle. Don't know if it is rogue, though. Holt was close in 2004, certainly sensitive to cost of living pressures, such as a tax on electricity bills. Big margin, though.

Is a Security Council seat worth worrying about?

No, but the fact than Harper is destroying our past excellent international reputation is very worrying.

Cite?

I refer you to the UN delegations from North Korea and Iran.

I read a really good op-ed the other day suggesting that this was Palmer upset that his political donations didn't buy him influence, and now trying to torpedo the Coalition. Since that is effectively another way of saying he was trying to bribe the Opposition, I wouldn't make a similar claim.

"Insist that the Nazi salute you were performing..."

Me thinks this is fake.

The problem with some on the left is that they have no idea how Conservatives think. You're to the right of Obama? Well clearly you're a closet neo-nazi.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses SEIFA - Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas. It ranks areas according according to advantage and disadvantage. Obviously income is one factor used in the calculation, but it factors in other variables. More information, including a Technical Paper which sets out the variables and reasoning, is located here.

The ABS defined advantage as:

people's access to material and social resources, and their ability to participate in society.

From memory, it includes things such as home access to broadband as well as more obvious measures, such as income.

Lyndhurst by-election was held on Saturday. Labor held onto the seat with a significant primary vote swing against.