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November 27, 2014, 06:57:13 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Dallas or Saskatoon? on: November 26, 2014, 01:59:51 pm
Surely they have air conditioners in South Dakota?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Dallas or Saskatoon? on: November 26, 2014, 12:20:35 pm
LOL@the idea Saskatoon is that cold 8 months a year. Unless you've actually lived in the Midwest for a full year or have visited it at various points throughout please don't comment on our weather.

Tennessee weather is actually similar to the Midwest except it is warmer. It sucks here and it sucks more up north, mainly because I hate the cold.

Sure, spring and fall up in Canada you might receive some Gulf of Mexico air for a few days, but you will also be stuck under the polar vortex for the same amount of time.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Average White Share of the Electorate That Voted D in 2014, by State on: November 26, 2014, 10:13:51 am
I disagree with Nevada. I highly doubt 90% of Blacks voted Democrat there. Maybe 70-75%, perhaps a little higher than that. Kerry only won about 86% of the vote. Reid only got 79% of the vote in 2010 (though 11% voted other which is suspect). Overall, the west is not as racially polarized as the south or even the midwest. About 20% of blacks regularly vote for Republicans in California.

Please provide evidence to support this. Exit polls with tiny subsamples don't count. NOT BUYING IT.

If exit polls don't count, then how do we really know how blacks vote? Maybe only 85% of blacks vote for the Democrats. Maybe its actually 98%. How do we really know?

Of course you can look at multiple exit polls, create an aggregate of it, which would lower the subsample margin of error. In reality though, it is hard to get a gauge of minority voting patterns. It might be even more difficult in the case of California blacks because they are not concentrated in a couple of cities. They are widespread throughout suburban Southern California and the central valley. How do we know how these people vote? Are they really voting the same as those in Compton or Inglewood?

Well then your speculation is as good as mine if we don't really know. But aggregation of exit polls shows the black vote to be highly inelastic.

Do you have data to support that when candidates overperform by huge margins the way the state usually votes, the black vote doesn't swing? I can buy that when Ohio votes by 5 points for the GOP, the black vote is basically constant. However, it is hard to believe that would be the case when the GOP wins by 30 points. Also, looking at precinct results can sometimes be misleading, especially in these blow out elections, since the black people who swing likely don't live in inner city black majority areas.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/new-jersey/exit-polls.html

Also where is your evidence that racial voting polarization is worse in Ohio than Nevada?

That NY times exit poll backs me up if anything. Usually blacks in NJ vote 90-10 Dem.

I also did not mention anything about racial voting polarization. I mentioned racial polarization in society. If there is more racial polarization in a state, one would assume the black vote there would be more inelastic than in a state with less racial polarization.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Average White Share of the Electorate That Voted D in 2014, by State on: November 26, 2014, 09:05:05 am
I disagree with Nevada. I highly doubt 90% of Blacks voted Democrat there. Maybe 70-75%, perhaps a little higher than that. Kerry only won about 86% of the vote. Reid only got 79% of the vote in 2010 (though 11% voted other which is suspect). Overall, the west is not as racially polarized as the south or even the midwest. About 20% of blacks regularly vote for Republicans in California.

Please provide evidence to support this. Exit polls with tiny subsamples don't count. NOT BUYING IT.

If exit polls don't count, then how do we really know how blacks vote? Maybe only 85% of blacks vote for the Democrats. Maybe its actually 98%. How do we really know?

Of course you can look at multiple exit polls, create an aggregate of it, which would lower the subsample margin of error. In reality though, it is hard to get a gauge of minority voting patterns. It might be even more difficult in the case of California blacks because they are not concentrated in a couple of cities. They are widespread throughout suburban Southern California and the central valley. How do we know how these people vote? Are they really voting the same as those in Compton or Inglewood?

Well then your speculation is as good as mine if we don't really know. But aggregation of exit polls shows the black vote to be highly inelastic.

Do you have data to support that when candidates overperform by huge margins the way the state usually votes, the black vote doesn't swing? I can buy that when Ohio votes by 5 points for the GOP, the black vote is basically constant. However, it is hard to believe that would be the case when the GOP wins by 30 points. Also, looking at precinct results can sometimes be misleading, especially in these blow out elections, since the black people who swing likely don't live in inner city black majority areas.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Average White Share of the Electorate That Voted D in 2014, by State on: November 26, 2014, 09:01:45 am
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/CA/G/00/epolls.0.html

I also want to add that Kasich received near 30% of the black vote this year, and Sandoval overperformed even Kasich. And black-white racial polarization is definitely worse in Ohio than Nevada.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Average White Share of the Electorate That Voted D in 2014, by State on: November 26, 2014, 08:57:07 am
I disagree with Nevada. I highly doubt 90% of Blacks voted Democrat there. Maybe 70-75%, perhaps a little higher than that. Kerry only won about 86% of the vote. Reid only got 79% of the vote in 2010 (though 11% voted other which is suspect). Overall, the west is not as racially polarized as the south or even the midwest. About 20% of blacks regularly vote for Republicans in California.

Please provide evidence to support this. Exit polls with tiny subsamples don't count. NOT BUYING IT.

If exit polls don't count, then how do we really know how blacks vote? Maybe only 85% of blacks vote for the Democrats. Maybe its actually 98%. How do we really know?

Of course you can look at multiple exit polls, create an aggregate of it, which would lower the subsample margin of error. In reality though, it is hard to get a gauge of minority voting patterns. It might be even more difficult in the case of California blacks because they are not concentrated in a couple of cities. They are widespread throughout suburban Southern California and the central valley. How do we know how these people vote? Are they really voting the same as those in Compton or Inglewood?
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Dallas or Saskatoon? on: November 26, 2014, 08:46:58 am
There is something wrong with this forum. You guys like dressing like an Eskimo for 8 months a year?

Hard to pass on free health care.

Depends on one's personal situation I suppose. How are taxes in Canada, especially for the poor and lower middle class? Is there a VAT? Someone is paying for that healthcare, and unlike America, the tax system is usually less progressive in places that have a larger government. In addition, the ACA helps out a lot of these people with subsidies and there is a fairly generous stop loss provision. I am sure many people would benefit in a Canadian system but I suspect it would be the really poor and the upper middle class. Most of the working poor and middle class might be better off in the American health care system.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the world see the likes of Lincoln, TR, FDR, Churchill ever again? on: November 26, 2014, 08:40:27 am
I really hope we don't see another churchill.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Average White Share of the Electorate That Voted D in 2014, by State on: November 26, 2014, 08:33:43 am
I disagree with Nevada. I highly doubt 90% of Blacks voted Democrat there. Maybe 70-75%, perhaps a little higher than that. Kerry only won about 86% of the vote. Reid only got 79% of the vote in 2010 (though 11% voted other which is suspect). Overall, the west is not as racially polarized as the south or even the midwest. About 20% of blacks regularly vote for Republicans in California.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 25, 2014, 07:01:52 pm
I support the executive order for kids(the DOCA) but not the most recent executive order.

Then why deport their parents?
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Dallas or Saskatoon? on: November 24, 2014, 04:18:23 pm
There is something wrong with this forum. You guys like dressing like an Eskimo for 8 months a year?
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support President Obama signing an executive order granting amnesty? on: November 20, 2014, 06:57:12 am
I don't really care what he does with the people here now, but the freaking border needs to be secure.  I don't even care if we let in everybody that wants to come in, but they shouldn't be able to do it by simply walking across the border.  It's not good for them and it's not good for us.

That is much easier said than done. What really needs to be done is to strictly enforce employment law and make E-verify a requirement. Making sure small businesses and contractors are following this law is the big challenge. If jobs still exist for illegal immigrants, they will continue to come.
I agree with all that.
Quote
Strategic border fencing is fine (and mostly already done) but fencing up the whole border is a waste and inefficient use of resources.
We waste use resources inefficiently all the time.  The couple extra billion it would take to properly secure the border is nowhere near the most wasteful way we spend money.  Clearly the border can be more secure than it is now.

My point is that a more extensive wall won't even work to stop illegal immigration. People will find another way if the border itself becomes secure. You need to stop the reason those people are coming here, and that is jobs.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2014 Special At-large Senate Election on: November 16, 2014, 07:36:39 am
1. Cris
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support President Obama signing an executive order granting amnesty? on: November 15, 2014, 09:22:26 am
I don't really care what he does with the people here now, but the freaking border needs to be secure.  I don't even care if we let in everybody that wants to come in, but they shouldn't be able to do it by simply walking across the border.  It's not good for them and it's not good for us.

That is much easier said than done. What really needs to be done is to strictly enforce employment law and make E-verify a requirement. Making sure small businesses and contractors are following this law is the big challenge. If jobs still exist for illegal immigrants, they will continue to come. Strategic border fencing is fine (and mostly already done) but fencing up the whole border is a waste and inefficient use of resources.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support President Obama signing an executive order granting amnesty? on: November 14, 2014, 06:40:59 pm
And it should be added that Obama did something similar with the Dreamers a few years ago, including giving them work permits. Constitutionality should not be an issue here.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Do you support President Obama signing an executive order granting amnesty? on: November 14, 2014, 06:19:15 pm
Wish he would work with congress but that might not be a good idea. They will likely not legalize many people, if any. He can at least keep these people safe until the next election. After that it depends who is the next president, or if the Democrat runs against this.

Also, can someone explain how he would be providing these people with work permits? I understand how he can make deportation the lowest priority for the justice department, but how does he have authority to give them work permits?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 14, 2014, 06:09:47 pm
And while he is at it, couldn't he use prosecutorial discretion to decriminalize marijuana? I hope he does that as well. He should do it at the same time as he does this.

I love this new President Obama. It seems like he wants to live up to the boogeyman Republicans have created about him being the most liberal president in history. Now he is showing the Republicans what a real liberal does.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 14, 2014, 05:51:53 pm
I love the littany of articles on the timing of his announcement, so that I have a hunch on when I should be appropriately outraged.

If you haven't gotten outraged yet, don't bother now.  This is just old news.  Bad news, but old news.

Are you against what Obama is going to do here? I would like for him to work with congress but I don't think they would be fine with legalizing anyone less than maybe 20 year here. That is unacceptable to him and it is unacceptable to me as well. The people elected him president to pass his agenda, not sit there twiddling his thumb while the Republicans satisfy their crazy base.

The procedure he will be using is the exact same that is used to legalize marijuana in Colorado and Washington, as well as medical marijuana in the litany of states that have it. The feds could stop it at any time, but they don't. Prosecutorial discretion is not something new and has been used in the past for multiple issues. In any case, he would make official what is basically policy in any case. Only those who were in the wrong place at the wrong time get deported. It would help with that, but looking at the big picture this doesn't change much.

I am a little concerned about those work permits though, from a constitutional standpoint. I think it is a good idea they are getting them, but I don't get how that would be constitutional. Can someone explain?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 13, 2014, 07:04:04 am
House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.

The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.

Actually, most Democrats ran way behind Brown. Congressional candidates maybe won the state by 10-12 points and state legislators by even less than that. Candidates like Bera and Ruiz won because they are good candidates. Brownley and Baca, not so much.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 13, 2014, 12:26:49 am
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves Roll Eyes

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?
The way to gerrymander is to pack your opponents into some districts, while giving your districts a slight advantage.

Now imagine you have a district that is perhaps 53% R, compact and formed from natural communities, such as cities or counties.  You decide to make it more "competitive."

How do you do this, you move Democrats in, and Republicans out.  But switching areas that
are 53% Democratic and 47% Republican is tedious and takes a lot of switches, even though the political similarity suggest a greater community of interest.

So instead you grab a small 80% chunk of Democrats and expel some Republicans to another district that is already overwhelmingly Republican.

But you overlook the fact that the measurement of voters in the 80% Democratic area was in a midterm election, and perhaps against a weak candidate (think of the Ohio gubernatorial race, where a somewhat unpopular incumbent in an extremely competitive state, blew out his Democratic opponent by 30%).   Or maybe the statewide candidate happened to be from the area and ran a couple of percentage points above the partisan trend in the area.

Didn't the commission systematically underpopulate the competitive legislative districts in Arizona?

None of the congressional districts save AZ-9 could be considered to be gerrymandered, and even there the justification for that is competitiveness. The republicans wanted to shove more of Tucson, including white liberal areas, into Grijalva's district so they could take over the 2nd (formerly the 8th). Now that would have been a partisan gerrymander.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 10:47:25 pm
http://sacresults.e-cers.com/resultsSW.aspx?type=CON&map=MPRC

Bera takes the lead. It's basically over with only 19,000 ballots left to count in the entire county (no way to know how many from CA-7) and 9,000 of those being provisionals.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP - Gardner (R) 48; Udall (D) 45 on: November 12, 2014, 10:23:17 pm
He won Larimer by 500 votes, though and the GOP turnout machine really helped in Greeley and Colorado Springs. The Democrats just didn't do a good job in Pueblo, too. If I were Bennet and Hillary, I would really be looking into turning out the vote in Pueblo and the Sangre Del Christos.

The point is that Republicans and Democrats both did fairly well this election but that the Rs are doing much better though the Ds still have much room for improvement.

Not talking about abortion 90% of the time might help turn them out.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 10:01:16 pm
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves Roll Eyes

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?

Also, Romney won both AZ-1 and AZ-2 while losing by 4 points. So it is charitable to say they are tossups. Probably closer to lean Republican.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats' Lost Generation on: November 12, 2014, 07:17:05 am
It's kind of annoying, to be honest. I wanted this year to be a more neutral year, they're more interesting to go back and talk about. Like, why did Democrats do well here, but Republicans do better there? Now it's just basically one party wins everywhere depending on the year because of the letter beside their candidates' names.

I saw a clip of Bill Maher's program where he said every election is a wave election now. Kristen Soltis Anderson made a good point though. She said, "It’s always been the case that midterm elections are frankly older, whiter people. The difference is that didn’t used to mean a more Republican electorate all the time."

Seriously speaking, without African Americans and Latinos...which Democrats in the entire country, at any office level, would have won last week?

Jerry Brown, John Chiang, Dave Jones and possibly Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

And all of the representatives in the Bay Area, as well as multiple districts in Los Angeles County, at all levels of government.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 12, 2014, 05:35:12 am
They key for the Democrats to take back the house is to take back a lot of northeast/midwest districts. These are republican leaning, but not to the extent GA-12 would be. Democrats don't need to take back districts like that in order to take the house. They need to pick up actual swing districts like those in the suburban/rural midwest.
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