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November 01, 2014, 07:01:32 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: Today at 06:17:47 am
Again, the hard data you cite is party registration. That has nothing to do with the whims and fancies of people at any given time, which is otherwise known as party ID. A person who is registered as a Republican my feel like a Republican one day and an independent the next. Someone registered independent may want to associate with the democrats one year, but not the next. Party ID is fairly fluid whereas registration is not. In 2010, a Republican wave year, Colorado voters said their party Id was 33-28 in favor of the Democrats. At the same time, I don't believe Democrats have ever had an advantage in party registration in Colorado in recent years.

I get your point about this being an advocacy poll and lo and behold PPP will be conducting another CO poll this weekend. You only diminish your greater point by conflating party registration and party ID.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 31, 2014, 11:45:18 pm
And before you respond, go check out the party ID from the 2010 exit polls in Colorado. If anything, this poll needs to be unskewed in favor of the Democrats! Tongue
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 31, 2014, 11:29:39 pm
I totally agree with you. Schools need more funding and GOOD teachers need to be paid more. If the teachers union advocated for that, I wouldn't have a problem with them.

Good teachers pay only part of total union dues.... It's the perils of any union shop. Dues paying bad workers need to be protected by the union as well.

And this is why I don't like unions in general.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 31, 2014, 11:26:07 pm
Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

Same mistake? Seriously?

This is not 2012. No one is trying to reskew a poll. I am just pointing out how these self-identified numbers are way off of the reality of what the Colorado electorate looks like right now.

Unlike 2012, we have statistically significant hard data in this race to back up those numbers.

The early voting samples simply do not compute with this poll's findings.

With likely 60% of the electorate all ready voting the numbers suggest an R+10 electorate. (Actually R+9.2, but R+10 due to rounding). It's remained in that range all week.

My point is that unless there is a serious Democrat wave over these last few days, this PPP/LCV (D) poll is an outlier. Democrats are not coming out to their 2010 early vote numbers in Colorado of R+6 right now. The enthusiasm is on the Republican side.

The red hats can gleefully look at this advocacy poll as evidence of a chance for Udall. However, your enthusiasm will wane once the real PPP poll comes out this weekend showing a Gardner lead.

All you are doing is unskewing this poll like Republicans did in 2012. Party registration and party ID are two different things and you would do well to learn that.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 31, 2014, 08:24:15 am
Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

This surprises you?

When did I say it surprised me? Tongue
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 31, 2014, 07:52:11 am
I totally agree with you. Schools need more funding and GOOD teachers need to be paid more. If the teachers union advocated for that, I wouldn't have a problem with them.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 31, 2014, 07:48:40 am
Party ID and party registration are different things.

I'd generally agree with you, but not with 60% of the likely vote already in. This is almost like a half-exit poll at this point in time.

I find it hard to believe that partisans are going to lie to pollsters about their party affiliation after going out of their way to cast a ballot to the extent stated in this poll.

You basically would have me suspend belief here to say that 8-9 percentage points of Rs self-identify as Democrats for this sample to work.

If we were modeling against historic turnout, that would be one thing. But these are hard numbers for this particular voting cycle. To be a few points off on an exit poll is one thing. To be off by nearly 10 is not.

Keep in mind that at 60%, the EV numbers begin to become somewhat statistically significant in a larger poll subsample of 600 on their own merits.

By another measure, Democrats would have to push a sample of R+2 the rest of the way to get it within the R+6 they had for the Buck race. We'll see tomorrow, but these EV numbers have not budged much off of R+9 this week.

Were you not following politics in 2012?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 31, 2014, 07:47:31 am
Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 11:08:48 pm
Qualifications matter more than union gripes. That last thing we need is a superintendent trying to get into big fights with unions, that's just a lot of gridlock.

Someone needs to do something. That has been my biggest disappointment with Brown.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 10:47:46 pm
It would be even better if they didn't have union connections.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 10:44:01 pm
A 20% landslide might be great but i wonder if he's going to win Orange county when he did win it in 1978 with a 19.5% margin statewide.

Probably not but it would be indicative of how big he won.

Just hoping the green and peace and freedom party doesn't decrease his margin even though they probably will.

A 30 point win would be needed for Brown to carry Orange County, especially in an off year election. I do think Brown will win a bunch of mountain counties as well as counties in the Central Valley that no one is expecting.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 10:39:00 pm
I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.

Realy? The poll only shows a 21 point win, and my guess is undecideds break for Kashkari.

If Brown wins whites, he will win by at least 20 points or so. If he wins whites by double digits....I think this poll more accurately represents what Kashkari ends up getting, not Brown. Let's see if I am right. The issue is that turnout could be very low which could end up limiting Browns margin of victory.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 10:34:48 pm
Ugh, really hard to pick between >50% and >60% here.

>60% is an easy prediction since this is the top two and there are no independents/greens/libertarians in the mix. Brown should easily win by 20+. The real question is if he can crack 65%, but it's unlikely in an off year election with very low interest.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33 on: October 30, 2014, 01:31:56 pm
I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Strategies 360 (D): Udall +1 on: October 29, 2014, 07:43:14 pm
How long until we hear from the usual suspects that this firm was "the most accurate in CO in _____!"?

This guy actually nailed it in 2010. He had Bennett by one over.....

KEN BUCK.

So your point is that this poll might very well be accurate?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead on: October 27, 2014, 05:16:24 pm

It should be based on the data set backtored cited.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead on: October 27, 2014, 04:37:05 pm
2010 was R+6, which this year would probably wind up taking out Udall and quite possibly Hickenlooper, too. For Udall to survive it probably has to be no worse than  r+3. Given current turnout, I don't see that happening unless Democratic GOTV had a much stronger weekend than Republicans. I mean, they only have until Friday to mail ballots back unless they deliver them in-person, and that requires the sort of motivation that Democrats don't appear to possess this year.

It just shows how different Colorado is politically without Barack Obama on the ballot.

What was the number in 2012?
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 25, 2014, 11:15:54 am
President
1) Lumine/Sjoycefla
2) Marokai/Antonio
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: de Blasio continues to run Bloomberg's racist, drug warrior police department on: October 23, 2014, 09:57:53 am
Also, regardless of action at the state level, couldn't NYC just make violations of Marijuana possession the lowest priority for the police? Many liberal cities out west do that to change policing without having to change state laws.

Mj possession in small amounts is already officially decriminalized, but they manage to get around that. 

Right, but NYC could go further and basically stop the police from dealing with marijuana offenses by making it the lowest priority. I suppose they would be able to get around that as well but it's worth a shot.

What would lowest priority mean?  If someone is getting stopped (ostensibly) for something else, wouldn't the police still have a look-see what else they can find?

Basically no paperwork meaning no arrests/citations. They might confiscate/destroy it. Probably would depend on the individual officer.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: John Hickenlooper: I don't like Obamacare on: October 23, 2014, 06:11:35 am
He's not as hated as someone like Tennant because he's actually going to win his election for his party, and spine or not, he did end up signing the gun bills.

And say what he wants, his state did expand Medicaid and did their own exchange, so I assume that's why everyone blows off his stance on the ACA. Just like everyone blows off his position on recreational marijuana legalization.

So people didn't actually care about what Tennant said, they just cared that she was losing while saying it? That doesn't really make sense to me. I didn't particularly care about her comments since she's in West Virginia and Manchin basically did the same thing in 2010 (and nobody seemed to care then), but Atlas's thread on the subject would make you think she was Satan incarnate. I didn't particularly care about Hickenlooper's gun comments either, but combined with this one it seems as if it's becoming a trend.

Hickenlooper has always been a moderate (remember, he is pro-fracking). He's only been perceived as liberal because the legislature was very liberal and passing liberal laws, basically forcing him to sign them. He was never out in front advocating for any of those bills though.

It's not really about whether or not he's a moderate though. It's about his ridiculously transparent backpedalling after the fact. He had a choice to veto the gun bill, not to set up Obamacare exchanges, etc. and he didn't. That was his position, so stick with it. The whole "I didn't really want to do those things, but the legislature/Obama/my staffer MADE me!" is pretty weak and makes him look incredibly spineless.

Just based on the video, you seem to be misinterpreting his comments. He said it should have been rolled out state by state and he did set up his own exchange in Colorado. So essentially he did what he thinks should have been done in every other state. He also seems to want the states to have more control in establishing the rules, which is a more controversial position.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: de Blasio continues to run Bloomberg's racist, drug warrior police department on: October 22, 2014, 10:23:18 pm
Also, regardless of action at the state level, couldn't NYC just make violations of Marijuana possession the lowest priority for the police? Many liberal cities out west do that to change policing without having to change state laws.

Mj possession in small amounts is already officially decriminalized, but they manage to get around that. 

Right, but NYC could go further and basically stop the police from dealing with marijuana offenses by making it the lowest priority. I suppose they would be able to get around that as well but it's worth a shot.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: de Blasio continues to run Bloomberg's racist, drug warrior police department on: October 22, 2014, 05:50:37 pm
Also, regardless of action at the state level, couldn't NYC just make violations of Marijuana possession the lowest priority for the police? Many liberal cities out west do that to change policing without having to change state laws.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Reuters/Ipsos: omg so close on: October 22, 2014, 05:45:52 pm
Ah, the race that continues to be one of the most pure toss-ups in the country...

I think Hick will make it in the end. I sure hope he does because Beauprez could cause a lot of damage.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: October 21, 2014, 04:06:56 pm
Buck was ahead +3.0; Gardner is ahead +3.8 and gaining right now. (I'd also note that Udall was ahead +12.5 in 2008 and only won +10.3, even as Obama significantly underperformed in polling; we can't rule out, based on Udall's history, that it is Gardner polls are underestimating).

Also, +8 on the generic ballot looks fantastic for our chances at the state legislature. If Beauprez pulls it out, we could have a trifecta and bring the Midwestern reform efforts of Snyder and Walker to Colorado.

Isn't Democratic overreach basically the entire reason Democrats are hurting in CO right now? If they try to Walker-ize Colorado, you can probably expect them to be in deep trouble in 2016/2018.

If they try to enact fiscally conservative reforms, there may not be a backlash. If they go social conservative, which they likely will, there will be a backlash. Beauprez seems like a crazy. I really hope he doesn't win.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: de Blasio continues to run Bloomberg's racist, drug warrior police department on: October 21, 2014, 06:16:33 am
New York seriously has to reform their marijuana laws. Even if they are not at the point where the people will support legalization, at least they can decriminalize it. I am sure that has majority support in the state.

it is decriminalized.  the cops have a trick card though.  they tell the suspect to "empty your pockets", and when he does, he gets charged with marijuana in public view, which is a criminal offense.

That's not true decriminalization.
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