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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs? on: January 14, 2017, 10:14:10 pm
Clinton 2016 in cities and suburbs and Obama 2012 in rural areas. What would that look like?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Atlanta's Precinct Map and surrounding area on: January 10, 2017, 01:33:53 pm

Anyone with knowledge of the area want to compare to the income map?  At least from a glance, it doesn't so much look to be wealthy suburban Republicans defecting to Clinton as much as Atlanta being even more diverse than it was four years ago...

This is not a swing map. If a 70-30 well to do Republican area voted 60-40 in 2016, that is still significant even though on the map it is still going to show as a Republican area. Looking at swing maps across the country, some of the urban places that most consistently swung to Trump were those with high Black populations. And rich, well educated areas swung the most to Clinton.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these states is more likely to vote Democratic in 2020? on: January 03, 2017, 01:36:14 pm
In 2020, Iowa. Going forwards, I see Texas being more Democratic than Iowa, though Iowa will likely remain very elastic.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Muslim Americans more accepting of homosexuality than many Christian groups on: December 30, 2016, 12:37:11 am
Correlation doesn't equate causation. I am and always will be critical of Islam, especially because of its inherent social illiberalism. That being said, the poorer a nation is (and to an extent how authoritarian its past was) factor in greatly as to how accepting of LGBT people the nation as a whole is. How hard is it to acknowledge that both religion and politics are the problem?
I acknowledge that.
Islam is very anti-LGBT and I wouldn't ever say otherwise,
which is all my post that you commented on was saying, I'm not sure where we even disagree at this point
but know that Christians in the developing world harbor the same attitudes.
Some of them, indeed.  Nowhere near as consistently as Muslims do though.  As the above map shows, really clearly.
Nations where the government is secular and religion is out of politics are far more LGBT friendly.
Indeed.  It's good that the libertarian position on that has finally taken hold, took the left long enough Wink

In East Africa particularly, it is the Christians that are causing rampant homophobia and violence against gays. And in many cases being fueled by mission trips from the United States.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Orange County, CA be titanium D in 2024/2028? on: December 29, 2016, 12:21:53 am
Orange Country will never vote Democratic again.

Nah. I think you (and RINO Tom) are making the assumption that OC's swing to Democrats was purely on the backs of suburban Republicans turned off by Trump who defected for one election only. That's certainly a part of it, sure, but more importantly, Orange County is extremely diverse despite it's stereotype as an all-white County and has a massively growing Hispanic and Asian population. I think Solid D status is certainly possible in the future.

In 2012, Obama only narrowly lost the county to Romney, a perfect fit for Newport Beach types.

Oh, I don't dispute that.  I'm just thinking that by 2020 it will still be White enough that it will vote for Trump.

You brought up a good point: this image of rich, White OC residents becoming Democrats is nothing short of absurd.  Comparing OC's demographics to its margins, I think it's fairly obvious that even WITH defections (which surely happened, but I do think THOSE voters aren't going to become Democrats ... why would they?), Orange County Whites voted solidly for Trump and even more solidly for downballot Republicans.  It's the diversity that is making OC closer.

Yeah, but who are those white people who are moving into OC? Young professionals working in IT and biotechnology. They aren't voting for Trump or any Republicans tainted by him anytime soon.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Texas in 2020 on: December 27, 2016, 02:05:38 pm
Really hard to say on Texas. It has been so long since a Democrat won here at any level, even for statewide office that it is difficult to visualize it actually happening as the GOP seems to have a pretty solid 52% of the vote that will stick with them come heck or high water. Past winning Democratic maps like Lloyd Bentsen's in 1988 or Ann Richards' in 1990 (to say nothing of Jimmy Carter's in 1976) don't bear much resemblance to what a winning Democratic map would look like now. Like much of the South, Democrats lost Texas for good once the rural parts of the state abandoned them.

But if the major metro areas start voting more like major metro areas in the North do, then Texas will be competitive. There were definite signs of southern metro areas in general starting to behave more like northern ones this year (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta). A big reason why the South in general is so GOP is due to the fact that Southern cities and especially Southern suburbs are so Republican compared to cities in the rest of the US.

Yes, this is why Texas has a chance of flipping. It has a lot of big cities and a large proportion of its population lives in those big cities and their suburbs. The reason why Texas is so Republican is because those suburbs are so much more Republican than suburbs elsewhere in the country (outside the south). If the same trends that happen in the north happen in Texas, it will be much more likely to flip back to the Democrats than Iowa.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Miles' Election Map Thread on: December 22, 2016, 07:33:44 pm
Love how solid Irvine is. You can definitely have a Democratic congressional district anchored by Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Tustin and Aliso Viejo. Throw in some of Santa Ana and Garden Grove and you seal the deal. And getting rid of Royce in north OC shouldn't be so hard either....California should get rid of the redistricting commission for congressional districts (keep it for state assembly and state senate though).
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP proposes details of disastrous Social Security Reform - Massive cuts etc on: December 22, 2016, 05:40:53 pm
I'm extremely skeptical that this goes anywhere.

But if it does go anywhere, we can all stop wondering what the Democrats will be running on in 2018 and 2020. Unless the Democrats go along with this for some reason. After all, that party has show itself to be clueless.

I more or less support this, but don't agree with the tax cuts. If anything, they should increase the cap on the payroll tax, along with more modest increases in retirement age/benefits. It really isn't fair to the middle class (even though I benefited from it on the margins this year). If they pass this along with tax cuts for the rich...the GOP is stupider than I thought.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Change in Total Turnout, 2012-16 on: December 22, 2016, 04:32:38 pm
I am still confused on why there is a fall in turnout in the Midwest.  Urban Midwest is most likely falling AA turnout but there was a Trump surge in rural Midwest which should indicate a surge in turnout. 

Or maybe what we see as a Trump surge in this region was a combination of interest in Trump and a decline in voter turnout among white working class Democrats in this region.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 20, 2016, 02:58:22 pm
DKE put up numbers for California and New Jersey.   

Clinton apparently won NJ-7 and came within 1% of NJ-5 and NJ-11.   A lot of the Dem NJ seats trended Republican, but all of them are so Dem anyway it really doesn't matter (except maybe NJ-6).   

It looks like the Democrats are improving in the northern NYC area and losing the southern Philly area outside of Camden and Trenton. 

Clinton won a ton of CA seats held by Republicans,  that has the potential to be a game changer in 2018-2020 possibly.   She didn't improve much in CA-10 though (48.5 - 45.5).  Clinton won CA-7 52.3 - 40.9.


Issa is in trouble and perhaps Knight as well depending on the mood of the country. I don't see Rohrbacher or Walters having any trouble though. Rohrbacher's district barely voted for Clinton and Walter's seat is upper middle class and likely to vote Republican down ballot. Ed Royce looks like he could be in trouble on paper, but he is popular within the district. That one is worth watching.

In the central valley, turnout is usually a problem for Dems in midterm elections. Valadao seems to be personally popular and parts of Denham's district seem to have moved away from the Democrats in 2016.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is more likely to go Democratic in 2020? NC or GA? on: December 20, 2016, 02:17:50 pm
North Carolina. There are more swing voters there. Georgia is just hyperpolarized.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 19, 2016, 03:42:00 am
Giving talking head interviews on Fox News is a pretty solid dis-qualifier IMO.

Fox News is the most popular 24 hour news network, whether we like it or not.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 19, 2016, 01:36:44 am
Quote from:  link=topic=254633.msg5439696#msg5439696 date=1482124900
... SS moved on from straight Marathi supremacy in the 80's. They're just saffron nationalists nowadays. Maybe RSS would have been a better comparison now that I think about it more - their activists are known to love her...

Yes, RSS does make more sense. You do have to understand though that RSS is not exactly anti-Muslim or any other religion. They just view Hinduism as the religion of India and people practicing any other religion in India are "foreign". Disgusting as that viewpoint may be, it is not exactly relevant when talking about Tulsi Gabbard because she isn't ethnically Indian.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 18, 2016, 11:58:56 pm
Needless to say if she were to be nominated I would fly to America and actively campaign for President Trump's re-election on the grounds that Trump is merely influenced by the far-right while Gabbard is of the far-right.

How in the heck is Gabbard "of the far-right?"

She's just more isolationist when it comes to foreign policy. That hardly makes her "of the far right."

Well she does seem to channel Shiv Sena when convenient.

Do you even know what the Shiv Sena is? How the hell does she "channel" them? She is all about the rights of the Marathi working class? LOL
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which major city did Hillary receive the highest % of white voters? on: December 18, 2016, 06:40:14 pm
Probably San Francisco

Definitely not, Seattle is more white and gave Clinton a larger margin (a first!).

I think it's between Seattle (~88-8.44) and DC.

Ok---- slight long shot, but I'll throw it out, now that I've been crunching some Oregon numbers....

Assuming the original question refers to non-Latino Whites

Portland Oregon is 72% non-hispanic White vs Seattle's 66% non-hispanic White.

Portland---- (78-13 Clinton-Trump) for +65% Clinton, which is likely a new Democratic Presidential candidate record for the Rose City....

It certainly looks like Portland beat the SFC for "Non-Latino White Clinton support"), unless Whites voted much more heavily Democratic than Asian-Americans in the City by the Bay.

Yeah, Whites in SF vote more Democratic than Asians. Asians were probably 80-20 in the two way vote.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. on: December 16, 2016, 02:56:48 am
I would love to see Tulsi run for President! Saying that there is a problem within Islam of Islamic terrorism and political Islam is just common sense. The more Democrats try to pussyfoot around it, the more they are going to lose to real fascists like Donald Trump.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Significant number of Obamacare beneficiaries voted for Trump on: December 16, 2016, 12:07:19 am
What, the peons don't love their 22% ObamaCare increase?

Plenty of people (mostly white and rural) who got on Medicaid through Obamacare voted for Trump.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is Florida really trending Democratic? on: December 13, 2016, 03:33:49 pm

This is still a Democratic victory even if PA and WI stay Republican. Michigan and Minnesota are key though. And Democrats have other targets in AZ, GA and NC. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is Florida really trending Democratic? on: December 13, 2016, 03:30:06 pm
One thing that should be concerning for Republicans should be that they basically maxed out the rural, historic Dem vote, and still barely won the state. They still have opportunities with the continued growth of retirement communities, but there is still massive growth from Puerto Ricans moving to the state and older Cubans are going to continue to die off as they age.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Concession regarding Trump on: December 13, 2016, 03:07:11 pm
We shouldn't accept or concede to a dictatorship. If he stops his authoritarian ways, then that's fine. But we should never accept the fascist takeover of America and fight back at every turn.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: which is a more republican demographic? on: December 13, 2016, 02:20:04 pm
Whites without college degrees making less than 50k. Now change that to 30k and that's where things get more interesting. Usually that demographic is more Democratic but Trump did very well with them. Basically the difference between victory and defeat. Also a demographic that benefitted from Obamacare (and voted to reelect him) and strongly supports Medicare and Social Security as is.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Wants to Repeal Obamacare NOW, and Replace Later....Much Later on: December 06, 2016, 03:27:32 pm
Republicans are playing with fire here. Many of the people making less than 30k who switched to vote for Trump are tremendously helped by Obamacare. Taking away their healthcare just before the 2020 election would not be a good idea. This is especially true in the Medicaid expansion states, and the great lakes swing states, with the exception of Wisconsin, have all expanded. Even a nominal swing among these people along with other demographics staying the same equals Trump losing re-election.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 06, 2016, 02:48:44 pm
I welcome this fight, as long as the Democrats don't pussy out. This is a winning issue for them.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Kansas swing towards Clinton? on: December 06, 2016, 03:46:41 am
Kansas is a very educated state.

So?  The college grads there are largely White, and that group voted for Trump.

Trends matter. College educated whites may have voted Republican again, but just barely. The reason why Hillary won the popular vote is because of college-educated whites.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis on: December 06, 2016, 02:37:53 am
If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

Edit: Texas flipping is the tipping point though. That's when we likely see another realignment. Florida is also a wild card. Lots of minority growth but also lots of elderly Northeastern and Midwestern white growth as well. It always looks like Florida will vote more Democrat than the nation and then it doesn't happen.
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