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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Reaction to a Trump nomination from the governments of USs Western allies on: May 22, 2016, 12:30:14 am
The only people who will comment from overseas are people who don't like him.

People who agree that you can secure your borders and control foreign trade wont say a word.

So it will be very biased.



Australia closed its borders to illegal boat arrivals, and not one illegal has arrived by boat since 2013/14.

Yet no one bats an eyelid anymore, left wing or right wing. Its a nil political debate when your borders are secure.

Mexicans are getting ticked off because Donald Trump wants to control our southern border?

No, because we all are rapists and robbers.

And that is something Mr. Trump and his followers will never live down. Next time, when you talk about how much you like Mr. Trump in the presence of a Latino gardener or hotel maid, or, for that matter, a Latino Ivy League Prof., keep in mind what he thinks about you. Hint: S/he thinks you are a rapist and a bandit.

You're absolutely right. What Trump should say: "I'd like to clarify something I said earlier. All of those illegal immigrants that dislike me so much? Well, I can tell you with 100% certainty that 100% of them have broken the law."

You see, despite the objections of the PC police, there's a reason for someone being called an illegal immigrant...

So you think all Mexicans are rapists? Because that is what they are pissed about.....

Of course we can do our own generalization. All Trump supporters are human trash! Racist pieces of sh**t.

And, in fact, they are. Every day one of them goes through without being publically called a worthless piece of sh**t at least four or five times is a day that God chose to look the other way.


How the heck are you a moderator? You're like drunk George Ramos.

Did he say something that was not factually correct? Sometimes truth hurts.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 20, 2016, 12:17:24 am
Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

That depends heavily on what assumptions you make about turnout and margins of the groups that aren't provided in the crosstabs.

If the margins of whites and blacks are the same as in this poll, and if you assume whites drop to 70% and Hispanics rise to 12%, with turnout and margins for all other groups remaining identical to 2012, it would be:

Whites (70%): 56-44 Trump
Blacks (13%): 92-8 Clinton
Hispanics (12%): 72-28 Clinton
Asian (3%): 74-26 Clinton
Other (2%): 60-40 Clinton

That gives a 55-45 election. But that's a lot of assumptions. If the election defies the hype and white turnout stays stagnant, it's 54-46. If black turnout drops a point, it's down to 53-47.

True. I would assume the Hispanic and Asian vote will swing even more towards Hillary than 2012 but that is not supported by the data as of now.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 19, 2016, 11:18:01 pm
Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......
Most of her current weakness appears to be young voters.

I agree. Good news is that young voters are more disproportionately Latino and Asian/Others and will turn out against Trump. That being said, she needs a good margin amongst all young voters. I definitely think they will fall in line once they are faced with the choice of Trump or Clinton. The margin will be more key than the turnout.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 19, 2016, 11:12:30 pm
Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 19, 2016, 11:10:10 pm
Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?


Hillary's main problem has little to do with Democrats and a lot do with independents who tend to vote for Democrats.

They aren't voting for Trump though, at least not in most of the country. There is some concern in the midwest but not in the rest of the country.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Americans ready for Female-Female ticket (Hillary-Warren)? on: May 19, 2016, 09:51:43 pm
Yes, America is ready. I think it would be a good move for Hillary because she has massive weakness within her party. And if Trump picks a white male for VP, then how can one complain about there being two women on the Democratic ticket?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 19, 2016, 06:41:05 pm
I really fear for this country if Trump somehow becomes president. That will probably lead to the end of the Dollar as the reserve currency and then the sh**t really hits the fan. I would not be surprised if there were massacres in America by Trump supporting forces.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: California Democratic primary county predictions on: May 19, 2016, 01:53:10 am
I agree that the Bay Area will be split. Bernie wins San Francisco, Sonoma, Napa and Santa Cruz counties but loses the rest of them. I could see Contra Costa and Marin voting for Bernie but in any case it will be close in those two counties. San Mateo and Alameda will be close but I'm fairly confident Hillary wins both. She will very likely win Santa Clara County.

She sweeps the San Joaquin Valley but Bernie sweeps the mountains and the rural north. As far as the Central Coast goes, Monterey County I am not too sure about. It has a lot of Hispanics but the white population there is Democratic and will be very pro-Bernie. He wins San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara, though Santa Barbara will be close.

Hillary sweeps Southern California and wins the state comfortably. The only ones that might be close are Ventura, Orange and San Diego but I'm fairly certain Hillary wins all three.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton 48% Trump 45% on: May 18, 2016, 01:16:49 am
BTW, I bet my house that TRUMP will not get 28% of Hispanics.
How nice is your house?

In the last 3 open elections, the Republicans got 30, 35 and 31% of the Hispanic vote. Romney (who was a terrible candidate -- worse than Trump IMHO), got 27% in the last cycle.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

As opposed to TRUMP who is beloved among Hispanics.
Get out of here.

Well, at this point we've seen about 10 polls showing Clinton up by a 2012ish margin on the strength of her better-than-Obama numbers with white women, while Trump does a bit better than Romney among all minority groups.  It's time to start taking this possibility seriously, or else have a good explanation for why the most anti-Trump Hispanics simply aren't answering polls.

It would be interesting to compare how Obama did with minorities in polls conducted before the 2012 elections. IIRC, Obama didn't do as well in polls with Hispanics and Asians as he ended up doing according to the exit poll. I think polls may understate Hispanic and Asian support for Democrats, and is one of the reasons why Democrats outperform their polls in Nevada and other places in the west. The reason could be that polls are missing non-english speakers and they are more Democratic than english speaking Hispanics and Asians.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Pennsylvania could be the tipping-point state as early as this year on: May 18, 2016, 01:06:49 am
It'll probably be Colorado again.

No way. It might be Virginia or possibly Florida, but not Colorado. Trump will not do well in the west.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was choosing Philadelphia for the Democratic National Convention a masterstroke? on: May 16, 2016, 11:30:31 am
I'm not convinced holding the convention in a state helps win that state. It's not even backed up historical precedent.

Like I said, it might be worth a point or two. I think something like that happened in Colorado in 2008. Or maybe it was because the state hadn't been truly contested in a long time. It is hard to measure whether there is such an effect, but in a close election, even small movements could be crucial. And in a place like Philadelphia, where increasing turnout is the key, having the DNC in town could help.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Was choosing Philadelphia for the Democratic National Convention a masterstroke? on: May 16, 2016, 02:17:56 am
I think this election comes down to Pennsylvania. The only place in the country I see Trump having strength is the industrial midwest and the northeast. Clinton can lose Ohio and still win. Michigan is too democratic to matter. The election is already lost if Clinton is losing Michigan. Virginia and Colorado, the other potential tipping point states, seem to be anti-Trump. Florida may be a future tipping point state but I don't think it will be in 2016. Trump will need to win Pennsylvania if he wants the presidency but the DNC should fire up Democrats in the Philadelphia area. I don't think it's a complete game changer, but it's worth a point or two. If the election is close, that could be the difference.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will the undecided voters break for? on: May 15, 2016, 04:48:18 pm
Anybody saying that the undecideds will break for Hillary should explain why they are not breaking for Hillary now.


Because it's May. By November people will realize how irresponsible it would be to give Trump, a man with documented mental issues, the nuclear codes.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: May 13, 2016, 01:47:23 pm
Hmm, Clinton did much better in Northeast Philly than I thought she would.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win Orange County? on: May 10, 2016, 01:13:37 am
If there is at least a 2-3 point swing towards Hillary, she should win it. Trump will likely get thumped in the Vietnamese areas and will do poorly in the south county (even if he narrowly wins it). I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary wins Irvine by more than a 20 point margin.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In a Trump v. Clinton election, will Clinton swing back to being free trade? on: May 07, 2016, 10:03:40 am
I really hope she doesn't, because that is one of the few scenarios I can envision where she loses.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's latest brain fart: Slash the debt by stiffing US creditors on: May 06, 2016, 12:28:42 pm
Oh Donald Trump will destroy America in so many diverse ways. I for one can't wait!

This is sort of like the taie of the "hatching" and spread of the AIDS virus. If you had just arrived from Mars, you would refuse to suspend your disbelief about what was obviously a rediculous novel, because it was just that outlandish.

At least he will lose the general, one hopes. Of course, if there is one person who can lose to Trump, it's Hillary.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's latest brain fart: Slash the debt by stiffing US creditors on: May 06, 2016, 12:12:34 pm
Oh Donald Trump will destroy America in so many diverse ways. I for one can't wait!
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vicente Fox apologizes to Trump on: May 05, 2016, 11:58:11 pm
If I offended you, Im sorry, Fox said, referring to Trump in an interview with Breitbart on Wednesday. But what about the other way around?

Note that Fox also asks the question, that trump should apologize for "offending" millions of people for his disgusting choice of words. Curious to see if trump follows-up with this.

Trump should say he's sorry for having to explain that every illegal immigrant has broken the law, and leave it at that. Fox and others are beginning to understand how ticked off the American electorate is, and that they may have to deal with the populist sentiments that he's raised.

He called them all rapists!!! That's the problem. Why do you refuse to understand this?

Also, you don't seem to understand how ticked off another very large part of the American electorate is at Trump......

  Um, no he didn't; only the rapists.

Trump supporters lie just as much as their supreme leader, don't they?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vicente Fox apologizes to Trump on: May 05, 2016, 03:27:49 pm
If I offended you, Im sorry, Fox said, referring to Trump in an interview with Breitbart on Wednesday. But what about the other way around?

Note that Fox also asks the question, that trump should apologize for "offending" millions of people for his disgusting choice of words. Curious to see if trump follows-up with this.

Trump should say he's sorry for having to explain that every illegal immigrant has broken the law, and leave it at that. Fox and others are beginning to understand how ticked off the American electorate is, and that they may have to deal with the populist sentiments that he's raised.

He called them all rapists!!! That's the problem. Why do you refuse to understand this?

Also, you don't seem to understand how ticked off another very large part of the American electorate is at Trump......

Yeah. Trump should not have called them all rapists, because clearly that's simply wrong. But they have all broken the law. That's the problem. Why do you refuse to understand this?


Oh, I completely understand this. Race baiting is not needed to solve the problem of illegal immigration though (E-verify with proper enforcement should do it), although it may be required to win the Republican nomination.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump begins his outreach to Hispanic voters on: May 05, 2016, 02:43:38 pm
OMG this is great
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vicente Fox apologizes to Trump on: May 05, 2016, 01:33:41 pm
“If I offended you, I’m sorry,” Fox said, referring to Trump in an interview with Breitbart on Wednesday. “But what about the other way around?”

Note that Fox also asks the question, that trump should apologize for "offending" millions of people for his disgusting choice of words. Curious to see if trump follows-up with this.

Trump should say he's sorry for having to explain that every illegal immigrant has broken the law, and leave it at that. Fox and others are beginning to understand how ticked off the American electorate is, and that they may have to deal with the populist sentiments that he's raised.

He called them all rapists!!! That's the problem. Why do you refuse to understand this?

Also, you don't seem to understand how ticked off another very large part of the American electorate is at Trump......
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote on: May 05, 2016, 10:53:00 am
In recent years, whenever the Republicans have done well nationally, they have done well with minorities. If Trump were able to get the same proportion of whites that voted Republican in 2010 and 2014 to vote for him, he would still lose the election.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote on: May 05, 2016, 02:01:08 am
How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012? 

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

No, black people are not going to support a candidate that openly race baits against Hispanics and Muslims. Even if they are not the target of the race baiting, they are not going to condone it. I don't see how anyone can see otherwise.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Free Trade on: May 04, 2016, 06:23:21 pm
The one issue that could take down Clinton and give us President Trump is free trade. How does Clinton combat this? She has been getting hammered on this already in the primary.....

This issue is way overblown by people navel-gazing into the reasons why Trump won the nomination. He didn't win it because of "trade" - he won it because "brown/yellow people = bad." Trade is not now, nor will it be, a huge issue in the campaign, because the majority of working class people in this country will still vote Democratic, as they have been for years, because they are a) poor women b) ethnic or racial minorities or c) both. Trump might move the needle a bit with working class white men, but that group was already highly right leaning... he doesn't have much room to grow there. He can, however, really hurt himself among professionals who are not reflexively anti-trade, but don't want to pay an extra $200 on their next iPhone.

Oh I know he won the election with racism and xenophobia. He won't be able to win the general with that message though. And I think the one message he has that could appeal to a large portion of the country is trade, especially in the rust belt. If he can win Ohio and Pennsylvania with that message, it makes Hillarys path pretty narrow.
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