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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close? on: January 29, 2016, 04:16:18 pm
I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....

I think Trump has a much better chance at CO & NV than VA.

How? You really think the Denver suburbs are going to be into him? And while Trump may have a better chance at having Nevada whites swing more towards him, the state also has a large population of Hispanics AND Asians.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close? on: January 29, 2016, 03:07:19 pm
I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Nepal Politcs and Discussion on: January 25, 2016, 01:25:09 am
I honestly don't know much about the situation, so perhaps I shouldn't comment, but it looks like Modi is making a huge mistake here. I guess the question is, is the constitution in effect a gerrymander against the madheshi people living in the Terai?

I don't understand why anyone would be against Nepal being a secular republic. It's not like there is a huge religious divide there. It's a more Hindu country than India......
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why can't large urban areas be conservative? on: January 13, 2016, 12:57:39 pm
Minorities won't vote for the GOP due to identity politics stoked by Democrats.  That's really the main thing

No, it's because the Republican base is racist. And before you say anything else, Donald Trump.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Terrorist takeover of Federal building in Oregon on: January 04, 2016, 08:13:02 pm
So many terrorist sympathisers in this thread. Shameful.

Can you imagine if these radical redneck jihadists were Black, let alone Arabs?

Yes, you'd probably be saying 'can you imagine if these people were radical white "rednecks", conservatives wouldn't bat an eyelid'.

Which is exactly what is happening in this thread.....
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's limited appeal on: January 03, 2016, 05:32:42 pm
I agree with your assessment. I am concerned she might even lose against Trump or Cruz. Especially Trump if he can get big swings among the white working class in the north.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better with blue collar white males than Obama? on: January 03, 2016, 05:04:09 pm
She will do probably the same, most likely an edge or so less.

Blue collar white males do not like Hillary Clinton. She's one, not a male, and two, doesn't have the charismatic relatable edge Barack has. She will most likely under-peform there.

Exactly. I can definitely see northern blue collar whites swinging hard against Clinton. In the south they already voted for Mccain and Romney because, uh, reasons.

Whatever the swing, it will be stronger among rural blue collar whites, than urban ones. That apparently is true right here in Columbia County, which is disturbing. Heck, our now ex Mayor of Hudson, now that he is defeated, has on his Facebook page now, expressions of his love for Trump. He was and is a blue collar guy, albeit Pub. The white gentry just dumped him en mass with their little block voting. He was viewed as incompetent. We tend to like literate folks with smarts, with good work habits, not time servers handing out patronage, and reading haltingly as he struggles with the words speeches written by others.

That swing has mostly occurred in rural areas, though someone like Trump could squeeze out some more. Blue collar whites in places like Cleveland, Bucks County PA, Pittsburgh, Erie etc. are what should concern Dems. Obama actually did pretty well in many of these areas.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better with blue collar white males than Obama? on: January 03, 2016, 04:46:53 pm
She will do probably the same, most likely an edge or so less.

Blue collar white males do not like Hillary Clinton. She's one, not a male, and two, doesn't have the charismatic relatable edge Barack has. She will most likely under-peform there.

Exactly. I can definitely see northern blue collar whites swinging hard against Clinton. In the south they already voted for Mccain and Romney because, uh, reasons.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The States People Really Want to Move to (Post-Recession) on: December 30, 2015, 10:57:44 pm
The biggest blue states (CA, IL, NJ, NY) are losing massively while the biggest red states (AZ, GA, NC, TX) are gaining massively.

I wish this chart was percentage change because it overplays the movement out of California, due to the sheer size of the state. California will likely gain an electoral vote if current trends keep up.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated. on: December 30, 2015, 07:32:37 pm
Clinton's weakness in Colorado is way overplayed. If the Hispanic vote turns out, which they will against Trump, Colorado will be more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Why do you think Trump will fare worse among Hispanics than any other Pub candidate?
Most Democrats and most Establishment Pubs think this way.

Its not that I think other Republicans will do great with Hispanics, but Trump will bring the Republican numbers to new lows with Hispanics. And even more importantly, he will drive turnout among Hispanics and Asians which is pretty low compared to Whites and Blacks.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated. on: December 29, 2015, 04:57:53 pm
I sure as hell don't like Clinton, people need to stop assuming she's guaranteed to win Nevada and Colorado.

Did you vote for Obama?

Yes, he did, the first time.

The time Colorado voted for Obama by almost double digits with a smaller Hispanic electorate?

Yes.

And thus his vote is irrelevant. If the democrats need to win Colorado by double digits, they probably need his vote. Otherwise, they can win without him.

Clinton's weakness in Colorado is way overplayed. If the Hispanic vote turns out, which they will against Trump, Colorado will be more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated. on: December 29, 2015, 04:48:54 pm
I sure as hell don't like Clinton, people need to stop assuming she's guaranteed to win Nevada and Colorado.

Did you vote for Obama?

Yes, he did, the first time.

The time Colorado voted for Obama by almost double digits with a smaller Hispanic electorate?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated. on: December 29, 2015, 02:53:06 pm
I sure as hell don't like Clinton, people need to stop assuming she's guaranteed to win Nevada and Colorado.

Did you vote for Obama?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP(244) vs Hillary(217) Electoral votes situation in Dec,2015 on: December 28, 2015, 12:44:22 am
How is Colorado a red state? Shouldn't it at least be a tossup? Ridiculous.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Great Republican Revolt on: December 25, 2015, 06:36:54 pm
Us white males must defend the country from those annoying brown skinned people who are taking OUR JOBS WE HAVE FAMILIES TO FEED DAMNIT /s

This is the way many of this demographic sees it.  And, to be fair, why shouldn't they, at a certain level?  These are folks who do not have college educations, but whose jobs were eliminated and shipped overseas (many of them, anyway), and many who ARE employed have jobs that are not what anyone would consider a "good job"; they are jobs with lesser benefits and salary, and often jobs that require "flexible schedules".  This demographic is an older demographic.  Sure, we can send a 53 year old white male "back to school".  How much age discrimination will such a person encounter in the real-world job market when they emerge with an A. A. or A. S. degree? 

I'm in my late 50s, and I am faced with having to work longer than I ever anticipated.  Why would I be enthusiastic over the possibility of allowing new immigrants to come to America and compete for my job?  There is enough competition from Americans; why should we import more from people who don't have a RIGHT to come here?  These folks don't see immigrants as seeking a place at the table; they see immigrants as wanting to evict them from THEIR seat at the table, and they aren't entirely wrong in holding that view.  If these folks seem indifferent to the plight of immigrants, many immigrants are indifferent as to the effect their presence in the job market has on folks who believe they have "played by the rules" for decades.


Immigrants create more jobs than take away from Americans, especially well educated immigrants. While I can see why one would want to stop low skilled immigration, why stop high skilled immigration?

Also, many of the low skilled, illegal immigrants work jobs in the fields or in landscaping etc. Jobs that no American, whether with a college degree or not, wants to do. It is their kids, who are American citizens, who are "taking" jobs that white Americans without a college education want. So why should white American citizens have more of a right to these jobs than brown citizens? That is what you are advocating, right?

I can have sympathy for the plight of people like you, but you are in your situation due to a changing labor market. And that is mostly the cause of globalization and outsourcing, not immigration. While globalization has helped America on balance, no one can deny it has hurt Americans without a college degree. Why put the blame on immigrants though? Just need someone to scapegoat?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Driver in custody in Vegas after ramming into pedestrians on sidewalk on: December 22, 2015, 01:02:57 pm
so, are you suggesting that to own a gun should be as regulated as owning a motorcar? Because I don't think you've thought that "clever argument" very far.

Seriously these guys are idiots. So we should register every single gun in America, right?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump supporter arrested in plot to bomb Muslims on: December 22, 2015, 12:59:50 pm
Something needs to be done. We should at the very least have a database of trump supporters and perhaps even round them up and put them in camps until congress can get its act together. We can't let political correctness get in the way of America's security!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox - TRUMP surges to 39%! on: December 20, 2015, 09:17:26 pm
I guess I must make my preparations for voting for Hilldawg if he wins our party's nomination.

That would be rash. Better think it over.

Let's see. His choice is between being thrown in an internment camp or voting for Hillary. Doesn't seem like a very hard choice, does it?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is John Kasich/Donald Trump a moderate? on: December 20, 2015, 03:29:08 pm
Kasich is a McCain maverick on immigration. Too bad the country isnt ready for his brand of conservatism. Voters are tilting leftward, now and Trump is a terrible fit for Latinos. Along with Judd Gregg, they are still very popular.

Have you been tuning out this entire election cycle?

You do realize the Republican nomination is not the entire election? There is also a Democratic nomination fight going on although I wouldn't blame you for not noticing it. Anyways, they seem to be going pretty left and are doing just fine in the general election polls.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary: "ISIS Using Videos Of Donald Trump To Recruit New Jihadists" on: December 20, 2015, 03:23:38 pm
This might be true but whether it's true or not, I don't see why liberals are so happy to trumpet it. It actually proves that Islam is terrible if "moderate" Muslims are so easily converted to ISIS ideology.

Trump's comments imply there is a war between the west and Islam. In that context, even "moderate" muslims might be swayed to join a group that purports to be fighting for Islam.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Orange/DuPage/Nassau County on: December 20, 2015, 12:17:59 am
Orange County is an extremely diverse place, and I'm not talking about Santa Ana. Actually it is one of the least diverse places in the county since it's mostly Hispanics of Mexican descent. Look up places like Irvine, Fullerton, Anaheim, Buena Park etc etc.

I'll take your word for it that it's becoming more diverse; I've never been to California. But somehow I get the feeling that for every town you mentioned, there's a corresponding Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest and Rancho Santa Margarita.

Even those cities are fairly diverse with a large, growing population of Hispanics and Asians. I predict those places will become far more Asian in the coming decade.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Top Asian-American Ethnicity by State on: December 19, 2015, 01:03:10 pm
I'm surprised Koreans aren't the winners anywhere.  Maybe they're just too evenly distributed.

I'm also surprised Indians > Vietnamese in Texas. 

Outside the Houston area, Indians are more numerous. Especially around Dallas and Austin to a lesser extent.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's be 100% serious here for a moment: on: December 16, 2015, 02:28:31 am
Yes, the fascist is right from time to time.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of my Trump/Clinton Map on: December 15, 2015, 11:01:26 am
Colorado, seriously? Everyone on here is way too confident Clinton will lose Colorado and win Virginia. I can easily see the opposite happen. Especially with Trump as the nominee doing well with southern whites combined with lower black turnout. And he loses Colorado because of increased Hispanic turnout/margin.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can anything hurt Trump at this point? on: December 14, 2015, 12:52:32 am
As long as he keeps championing policies that enjoy widespread approval among Republican voters, he'll be fine.
Why folks don't get this is a mystery.

No, many of us do get this. The majority of Republicans and Republican leaning independents are fascists. I bet you will support him when he advocates putting Muslims in camps. Because, you know, common sense. And then maybe the gas chamber, because it would be more cost effective.

Would we still be friends if I still had a blue avatar?  Smiley

Haha I know not all Republicans are like that. Just a majority.
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