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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17 on: September 21, 2016, 02:23:20 am
So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I just can't see her losing Riverside County. State Democrats have been registering Latinos here like crazy, particularly in the Coachella Valley and Riverside city. My belief is that middle class Latinos will eventually come home and Riverside County goes about 51/52% for Hillary.

At least for the downballots, Democrats look to be doing very well in Riverside this year

I agree with you. Which is why I am very skeptical of the polls out of Nevada. It doesn't make sense to me. I can envision a swing to Trump in San Bernardino County though. See how it voted in 2014 while the rest of the state was swinging hard to Brown (though Brown overperformed in 2010 to be fair).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17 on: September 21, 2016, 01:05:54 am
So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump tied in 13 swing states on: September 18, 2016, 10:39:37 am
So are they going to have individual state polls of just this trash?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9 on: September 18, 2016, 08:58:54 am
I guess The Donald will be spending a lot of time in Denver and environs. That appears to be the only viable path left to him at the moment. Well, I guess there is NH perhaps. Don't tell TN that I mentioned NH!

I think Wisconsin is the better option than Colorado. Even Nevada I see going to Clinton as long as the poll aggregate is within a point or two favoring Trump. New Hampshire is possible as well but you need either Nevada, Colorado or Wisconsin along with it. Michigan I am not as concerned about. Overall, I am expecting some swing back to Clinton from Johnson/Stein among core anti-trump voters. This will help Hillary more in Colorado and even Nevada than among working class whites.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Easiest state for Trump to flip? on: September 15, 2016, 10:59:40 pm
Wisconsin. Lots and lots of working class whites in that state.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "basket of deplorables" Hillary's 47% moment? on: September 13, 2016, 12:55:59 am
When I heard about the Mitt 47% speech in 2012 I was very disappointed and upset about it.  It was a terrible decision to even give this speech, and this speech should never have been made.

Mitt's statements and Mitt himself deserved to be criticized and condemned for sure, and they were, relentlessly, but I personally do not believe that Mitt's statements were degrading or vitriolic and were certainly not hateful like the statements made by Hillary about certain sectors of the American public.

Lincoln Republican,
Why is it I have to keep driving the same huge chisel in your head.
She is specifically calling individuals that are racist, sexist, homophobic, bigots, etc as the scum of our society.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THAT ? !
What do you want us to call these people ... Angels ? Heroes ? Excellent people that we should be proud of and need more of ?
Why are you defending low level filth that unfortunately reside within our nation ? I don't understand you.
Clinton is not calling ALL trump supporters "deplorables." She is not even calling 50% of them deplorables (after she corrected herself). In the same initial speech she gave, she even made room for, and discussed, the other segment of trump supporters who are not in "the basket."
Have you read the transcript or watched the full video of her initial speech ? If not, do so, before you begin to spew more ignorance about the topic.


There's nothing "moderate" about you.

Do you think you are some great moderate? Because you voted for Obama? You are a bigot who thinks not all people are fit to be Americans, even if that is what they want in their heart, because of their background. You support a person who thinks Mexicans are rapists and all Muslims should be suspected of being terrorists. Do you think that is moderate?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP: Clinton +3 on: September 12, 2016, 10:22:43 pm
starting to feel like a broken record: PPP doesn't do bilingual polling so they can't accurately capture immigrants who primarily speak Tagalog or Spanish or Chinese etc. In otherwords, it's probably reasonable to assume that Clinton is doing quite a bit better. Attempting to justify her seemingly poor performance in Nevada strikes me as a fool's errand when it's rather clear that every public poll shows Trump winning more Hispanics than Romney...

I think something legitimate is going on in Nevada. I don't think Trump wins Nevada, of course, but I definitely see it trending Republican this year.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "basket of deplorables" Hillary's 47% moment? on: September 12, 2016, 10:14:12 pm
At least half of Trump's supporters are racist so I am not sure what is so controversial about this statement. About half of Republicans supported him in the primary when they had other choices. I can understand there are many Republicans who can't support Clinton but they are in the other category. At least half of the people supporting Trump are racists who just want their country back from the non-whites. Great Americans, they are. Anyone who isn't white isn't really American.
And you know this how?



I think the better word is bigot. The people who supported Trump in the primaries are bigots, plain and simple. People who support Trump's candidacy not because they hate Hillary because they like what he says, are bigots.

You seem to think that you are not a bigot. I am here to tell you that you are. You have in the past said that some people are not fit to be immigrants to America. I questioned you on it but you never responded back. America's history is defined by immigration here by Europeans. So why exactly can people not of European background not immigrate here? I can understand opposing illegal immigration as well as supporting limits on the level of immigration. But when you imply that certain people can't immigrate here because of how they look, or the faith that they practice, you are being a bigot. And half of Trump's supporters are most certainly bigots.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP: Clinton +3 on: September 12, 2016, 09:09:22 pm
Overall, numbers sound more realistic than most of the other polling from Nevada....

My current theory regarding why Nevada is so close this election cycle is as follows:

1.) Trump support among voters 65+ combined with a solid lead of voters 55+

2.) Theory regarding "White Non-College Educated Voters" in Nevada is a bunk theory and catchall to explain what is fundamentally a generational gap accentuated in a state where the vast majority Seniors are SoCal Anglo retirees, and exacerbated by the largest collapse in housing values in almost all Metro areas, and has still not fully recovered, despite two terms under a Democratic President.

3.) Millennials- 27% of the population of Nevada are Millennials, that are both heavily Latino and Bernie supporters in the primaries (Although few Millennials showed up to caucus) where Clinton is currently having her single biggest issue in consolidating a population that has Obama approval ratings of over 60&.

4.) Mormon voting influence is over-rated in NV, and despite extensive support for 3rd party candidates (Recent polling from UT and ID), might account for a 1% gap in the total spread. Slightly greater drop-off in percentages in what is a slightly larger Mormon Pop in AZ than NV.

5.) Anglo retirees to NV tend to be less wealthy and educated than Anglo retirees to Arizona.
(Could explain some of the weird polling gaps between these two states).

6.) First Nations-  It might seem small on the margins, but Trump's cultural insensitivity is causing issues with Native Populations that make up 5% of the state, combined with many Tejanos and Mexican-American communities that also identify with 1st Nation Rights.  READ MY POST, Navajo County will flip for the first time since '96 when a 3rd Party candidate did well in the state.

7.) Arizona and Nevada will end up relatively close this election cycle.

What I found interesting regarding the recent LA times poll of California is that Clinton is doing better in OC + SD vs the Inland Empire. The Inland Empire is a decent model for Nevada, especially Clark County. Obama did very well in the Inland Empire in both 2008 and 2012. Perhaps that will be one of the few regions of California to swing to Trump, despite the large minority population. Most of the whites who live there don't have college degrees. The SUSA poll is showing similar strength for Trump in the Inland Empire. 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +7 in Ohio, Clinton +2 in Florida on: September 11, 2016, 09:47:41 am
How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "basket of deplorables" Hillary's 47% moment? on: September 11, 2016, 12:53:57 am
At least half of Trump's supporters are racist so I am not sure what is so controversial about this statement. About half of Republicans supported him in the primary when they had other choices. I can understand there are many Republicans who can't support Clinton but they are in the other category. At least half of the people supporting Trump are racists who just want their country back from the non-whites. Great Americans, they are. Anyone who isn't white isn't really American.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 10:35:57 pm
Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November. Smiley
Have you applied your Math to the 2008/2012. Did it work? Smiley
Romney loose because of incredibly low turnout of Whites, but guess what. Even McCain didn't manage to have get high turn-out among Whites.

Ah yes, the whites didn't turn out scenario. Rather the polls are saying Trump will do better with non-whites than Romney. We shall see.
Ehm... polls are showing both. But you want to unskew them, right?

One more time, what is your point?
That polls are wrong? Why?
Need to be unskewed like in 2012? Why?

No, I don't want to skew anything. Just showing that whites are voting at a higher rate for Clinton than for Obama. You can draw your own conclusions from that.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 07:28:13 pm
Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November. Smiley
Have you applied your Math to the 2008/2012. Did it work? Smiley
Romney loose because of incredibly low turnout of Whites, but guess what. Even McCain didn't manage to have get high turn-out among Whites.

Ah yes, the whites didn't turn out scenario. Rather the polls are saying Trump will do better with non-whites than Romney. We shall see.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's talk about the white vote on: September 02, 2016, 06:53:51 pm
Actually many are showing Trump doing better among non-whites than Romney. We shall see if that turns out to be true or not.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 06:52:08 pm
Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November. Smiley
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's talk about the white vote on: September 02, 2016, 06:40:36 pm
And if you would like to look at the numbers and what I am talking about, here you go:

1)http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/POSTING_Tables_Sep2016_Horserace_Registered_And-_Likely-Voters.pdf
IBD poll where Clinton leads by 1 but only loses white vote by 14 points.

2) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-aug-31-2016/
Fox Poll where Clinton leads by just 6 while only losing the white vote by 11 points. That would be 2 points better than Obama 2008.

3) http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1,SC_RACE:1/dates/20160801-20160901/type/week
Latest Reuters poll which is tied but Trump only up by 11 among whites.

4)https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d1qd4msxfd/econTabReport.pdf
Yougov poll where Clinton leads by 5 but only down 13 points among whites.

5) http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf
PPP poll where Clinton is up 5 and down 15 among whites

6) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/01/suffolk-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-fear/89577824/
In this USA today poll Trump is only up by 8 points among whites but Clinton only leads him by 7.

7) http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Monmouth poll where again Trump is only up 8 points up among whites while only losing by 7 points.

For reference, Obama lost the white vote by 13 points in 2008 and 20 points in 2012 according to exit polls.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 06:38:53 pm
I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?
I don't know. Just link to those facts/polls. That's who we do in Sweden.
I always do so, when I talk about numbers.

Seriously? Obviously you don't follow the polls that closely......

1)http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/POSTING_Tables_Sep2016_Horserace_Registered_And-_Likely-Voters.pdf
IBD poll where Clinton leads by 1 but only loses white vote by 14 points.

2) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-aug-31-2016/
Fox Poll where Clinton leads by just 6 while only losing the white vote by 11 points. That would be 2 points better than Obama 2008.

3) http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1,SC_RACE:1/dates/20160801-20160901/type/week
Latest Reuters poll which is tied but Trump only up by 11 among whites.

4)https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d1qd4msxfd/econTabReport.pdf
Yougov poll where Clinton leads by 5 but only down 13 points among whites.

5) http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf
PPP poll where Clinton is up 5 and down 15 among whites

6) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/01/suffolk-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-fear/89577824/
In this USA today poll Trump is only up by 8 points among whites but Clinton only leads him by 7.

7) http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Monmouth poll where again Trump is only up 8 points up among whites while only losing by 7 points.

And these are just the latest polls on Realclearpolitics.com.........
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 05:52:19 pm
I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.
You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......
Haha. No, your opinion is not cold, and actually is not a fact.
What we have is polls. And you, trying to unskew them.

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Let's talk about the white vote on: September 02, 2016, 05:35:10 pm
One of the caveats about analyzing numbers from a subsample of a poll is the high margin of error. The white vote, with it being about 70-72% of the sample, is a demographic that is going to be least affected by this. We can be reasonably sure the pollsters are getting a reasonable view of the white vote, even if they are missing by 10-15 points among smaller samples like Hispanics, Blacks, angry NH women under the age of 35 etc. The polls are consistently showing that Clinton is only losing the white vote by about 10-15 points. So then why are the polls so close? If there is a 5-10 point swing towards Clinton from Obama 2012 among the white vote, shouldn't she be leading by about 10 points right now? What exactly is going on?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19 on: September 02, 2016, 05:30:26 pm
I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.
You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California on: September 02, 2016, 04:45:18 pm
Del Norte will be tough to flip. A lot of prison union folks in that county (Pelican Bay). That is sort of Trump's base.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton isnít doing better than previous Democrats w/Latinos even against Trump on: September 02, 2016, 04:38:50 pm
I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and assimilated Hispanics on: September 02, 2016, 04:34:41 pm
I work with a Hispanic woman whose family has been in California since the time it was a part of Mexico and her family owns a "rancho" from those days. They are not Catholic, but Pentecostal. She is actually a youth pastor and heavily involved in the church. She is the type of Hispanic voter the Republican party really needs to vote for them and people like her did vote Republican in 2004. She doesn't speak Spanish and she is now concerned if Trump wins and she is forced to leave for Mexico what she will do. While that may be a little hyperbolic, it really encapsulates the problems Republicans have with Hispanics right now. I do not trust the polls showing greater than 20% of Hispanics voting for Trump.

Are you making this up?

I am seriously not. She literally is afraid of being sent back to Mexico by Trump. She is also one of those non-voter types who got the sh**t scared out of her by Trump. She doesn't know much about politics or government. But I bet she votes this year......
You have indirectly called her stupid. #stupidForHillary2016

Let me ask you a question though, would you opposed to all non-whites being rounded up and deported regardless of citizenship status?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and assimilated Hispanics on: September 02, 2016, 02:58:28 pm
I work with a Hispanic woman whose family has been in California since the time it was a part of Mexico and her family owns a "rancho" from those days. They are not Catholic, but Pentecostal. She is actually a youth pastor and heavily involved in the church. She is the type of Hispanic voter the Republican party really needs to vote for them and people like her did vote Republican in 2004. She doesn't speak Spanish and she is now concerned if Trump wins and she is forced to leave for Mexico what she will do. While that may be a little hyperbolic, it really encapsulates the problems Republicans have with Hispanics right now. I do not trust the polls showing greater than 20% of Hispanics voting for Trump.

Are you making this up?

I am seriously not. She literally is afraid of being sent back to Mexico by Trump. She is also one of those non-voter types who got the sh**t scared out of her by Trump. She doesn't know much about politics or government. But I bet she votes this year......

I don't even know who to blame for that.  As an adult who's family has lived in a particular country for generations you really should have some idea of what your status is.

I think the fear is that the deportation force won't "discriminate" when it comes to rounding up the browns. She is aware she is a US citizen.....Obviously you are pretty white since you don't get at a visceral level why non-whites are so afraid of Trump. It's not just disagreeing with his policies or his personality. Non-whites are afraid of what exactly he may be capable of.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Clinton see in AZ that she doesn't see in GA? on: September 02, 2016, 02:56:18 pm
I think the answer is multi part. First of all, Kirkpatrick seems to be doing pretty well and over performing Clinton. Even if Clinton can keep her loss to a couple points, it may put Kirkpatrick over the top. On the other hand the Georgia seat is safe for the Republicans.

Georgia is a pure turnout game. It's all about how many non-whites turn out versus whites. There are some persuadable voters in the Atlanta suburbs but not that many. Arizona is like that to an extent (and there is more opportunity to increase turnout with AZ hispanics vs GA blacks) but there are also more persuadable whites (including a lot of Mormons).

Finally, polls might be underestimating Hispanic turnout this year. Perhaps they are seeing something in their internals that we aren't in the public polls. Perhaps they see Georgia and Arizona being in the same league right now but with more persuadable voters in Arizona as well as a more competitive senate race.
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