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November 24, 2014, 11:28:57 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: House panel finds no wrongdoing by Obama admin. in Benghazi on: November 22, 2014, 12:24:13 am
*except for that thing about the State Dept ignoring the security needs of the embassy.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Jim Webb's 2016 website. on: November 22, 2014, 12:17:47 am
The backdrop in that video is kinda creepy - makes him look like an antichrist figure from a cheesy movie.  He has a strong message though.   The website itself is awful, seeing as it has no links to anywhere except the page you are on already, so far as I can tell.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff? on: November 19, 2014, 02:19:26 am
How do you make the maps of individual states?

I download the image of a state from this site and edit it on sumopaint.com
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many parishes will Landrieu win in the runoff? on: November 19, 2014, 12:45:56 am
my prediction: 14 parishes, at 46% or so.  There will be some depressed turnout among Democrats compared to November, but at the same time some those who voted for Maness will not show up for Cassidy.  the map looks like this:
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: National swing of states 2004-2012 on: November 18, 2014, 07:50:18 pm
AR/WV...*sigh* I guess that liberal French speaking elitist John Kerry was just so much better of a fit for them than Obama.

Yes. And clearly the people who repeatedly elect pols like John D. Rockefeller, IV and Gaston Caperton, III only voted against Obama because he's a privileged elite who doesn't share the roots of salt-of-the-earth workin' folks.

Over 90% of the swing to the GOP in WV shown on this map is from 2008-2012.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican candidate would do best in Virginia? on: November 18, 2014, 05:51:10 pm
It's hard to say.  Christie would probably do best if he is able to bring his reputation back up to where he once was.  Paul could get some very good numbers in Central VA, but if he is going after government spending in DC and the military-industrial complex in Hampton Roads he will have some problems there.  Bush has a too many handicaps. Walker might do okay.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts on: November 18, 2014, 05:28:35 pm
We shouldn't underestimate the Republican party's ability to help these Senators get re-elected.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo had 'secret pact' with Long Island Republican Senators on: November 18, 2014, 05:24:11 pm
It's honestly tragic that wanting to ban high-capacity magazines is more of a litmus test than actually betraying the party.

This is why I left the Democratic Party - they don't even have the balls to punish the people that betray their own.

You should join the Republicans. I left them in part for the exact opposite reason.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 18, 2014, 04:39:35 pm
It seems pretty rich to talk about cherry-picking sources and then post a context-free photo, without a link, that supports your side of the argument.
Yes, I provide some evidence countervailing for the sake of balance, I'm not going to provide every single piece of information on this.  Between the words on the image, and the url location attached to the image, it's pretty easy to trace the source. Since you show a deep interest in this you probably have found it by now, but here it is anyway: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141115/ISSUE02/311159995/heres-why-chicago-small-business-owners-arent-satisfied-with-the


It also says a lot about that chart that so many people are confident in saying it's making running a small business harder yet a solid majority are blissfully unaware of the tax credit opportunities or know anything about the law. It's just complete propaganda. I seriously doubt many of that 75% who said it's making their lives harder are going on actual experience and not hearsay.

The tax credits are only available for plans on the exchange, so of course many employers are not going to take advantage of it if they believe those plans are not the best options. The credits expire after two years, so it may not make sense for most businesses to change their practices just for that.

Another advantage that we have not heard as much about is that small businesses no longer need to be concerned about insurers jacking up their rates because of a few employees with expensive-to-treat conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if most respondents to this poll were unaware of this.

It's true that this is an important advantage. The flip side is that those businesses with healthy employees have to pay more for insurance to pay for this.  CMMS estimated that the community rating provides a lower cost for about one-third of small business, and a higher cost for two-thirds (link)
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 map with 2014 exit poll results? on: November 17, 2014, 10:34:42 pm
Are there House exit poll results by state somewhere?
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boehner kills internet sales tax bill on: November 17, 2014, 09:32:40 pm
If you order from a catalog, sales tax is generally not collected either.  It's not unique to the internet.

I'd be all for online/catalog orders having to pay sales tax to the buyer's residence if it wasn't for the complexity and extra cost of every seller constantly having to account for >100 different domestic tax regimes.

37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican Candidate Would do best in New Hampshire? on: November 17, 2014, 07:02:22 pm
Cuomo would easily win the state against any Republican.
I think people in NH like their guns.

With the exception of Warren Rudman, every Republican elected to the Senate in NH since Roe v Wade has been pro-life on abortion. It won't be a major problem for Paul or anyone else.



Then why did Brown explicitly come out as pro-choice when he ran and Ayotte believes in exceptions for rape and incest and the mother's life while Paul does not. I doubt many NH Republicans have a no exceptions stance like Paul.

Was not Scott Brown openly pro-choice when he was in Massachusetts?
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 17, 2014, 06:22:49 pm
Personally, I consider a small business to be any company that doesn't have a human resources manager. Once you hire someone whose job is to hire someone, you become a midsize operation. The difference between midsize and large business is then whether or not tax accounting is in-house.

By this definition. the very existence of an exchange is helpful to small business, regardless of the price point. The greatest burden government can place on small business is not financial but paperwork. This is why available tax credits in small business are so rarely taken advantage. Small business rarely have the time to decipher the legality of what they are entitled under the law. The healthcare exchange program simplifies decision making for the entrepreneurial small businessman. This is why tax simplification, patent simplification, and all other simplification efforts are helpful regardless of what the tax rate would be or what fees would be.

People gladly pay for convenience. A more convenient government could get away with collecting more tax dollars.

That's certainly true as a general rule.  We'll see if any more small businesses use the exchanges this next year than the very small number that did this past year.  For it to truly be a convenient alternative, there will need to be both a good variety of plans on the exchange in each state, and  some confidence that the information provided on the exchanges really tell someone most of what they need to know to evaluate the plans.
39  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would YOU vote in a Reid vs. Sandoval Senate Race? on: November 17, 2014, 05:54:06 pm
Clearly Reid.

Interestingly Reid is more pro-life than Sandoval. I wonder if that would affect the results.

Also arguing about "where the political centre lies" or "who is more central" remains one of the most pointless debates to bicker about.

Reid hasn't shown any sign of being pro-life in years. Sandoval is probably more in favor of restrictions/against funding abortion than he is at this point.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican Candidate Would do best in New Hampshire? on: November 17, 2014, 05:21:34 pm
Cuomo would easily win the state against any Republican.
I think people in NH like their guns.

With the exception of Warren Rudman, every Republican elected to the Senate in NH since Roe v Wade has been pro-life on abortion. It won't be a major problem for Paul or anyone else.

41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 17, 2014, 03:27:17 pm
What are they counting as a small business? I don't understand why ACA would make things harder for small business (if this is accurate) when the employer mandate doesn't even apply to businesses below 50 employees. Before, small businesses either had to offer expensive health insurance plans to employees, or compete at a disadvantage on the job market compared to large companies offering full benefits. Now, at least employees who don't receive health insurance at work can receive subsidies to buy on the individual market if they make below a certain amount.

There's no single standard for what qualifies as a small business, but it's true that those with less than 50 full-time employees (though this can actually be complicated thing for a business to determine if it qualifies given how its defined) do not have the mandate to supply health insurance coverage.  However, a lot of small businesses want to provide this coverage, and it is an advantage to attracting employees regardless of whether there is an individual exchange or not.  They want to continue offering similar plans to what they have been offering, which can be difficult under the new prices and new structures. In that link you provided you can see that businesses that do choose to offer health insurance have a lot of new things the are required to comply with. For example, they can't have a long waiting period for a new employee before that employee is offered health insurance. It's all much more of an all-or-nothing proposition. Businesses never like spending a lot of time and effort and money trying to figure out if they are in compliance with a new law.   Besides, small businesses often do like to expand and hire more people, but the fiscal cliff that could occur if they expand to more than 49 employees makes this more difficult.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 17, 2014, 01:00:31 pm
What is so left-wing about Small Business Majority? 

They advocate higher taxes and minimum wage and are cheerleaders for the ACA. The entire reason for their existence is to be a left-wing alternative to NFIB - the main difference being NFIB has members.
43  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Oxford School of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts IV on: November 17, 2014, 12:26:46 pm
A mod should clean up this thread and remove the Gustaf/Hockey/memphis etc. feud. It is clocking up the thread and doesn't belong here. Take it elsewhere guys.

No, I'm pretty sure it belongs here.
44  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which election was better? on: November 17, 2014, 12:12:14 am
It appears at this point that the 2010 additions to Congress were of higher quality, though some of the upcoming freshman class could surprise us.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Maine trending GOP? on: November 16, 2014, 11:58:18 pm
The leftie war on white America is hurting them

In most places, anyway. They did gerrymander Massachusetts quite well, but even there Baker won non Cambridge whites.

Yeah. It's interesting.  It seems like a lot of Middlesex County  just doesn't like Martha Coakley.  In the 2010 special and now in 2014 Gov race, that was her biggest underperformance.

Mass is just simply never going to send a Republican to Congress again because of the gerrymandering.  Dems were smart to dump Tierney. 

The irony of someone with SF in their username claiming that Democrats only win white areas because of gerrymandering. Yeah, that's why the >70% white Castro votes like 90% Democratic. Obviously.

He is right, the Democrats did a good job gerrymandering Massachusetts. My district (MA-4) is probably the most gerrymandered in the state.

I would guess that would be the 7th (which slightly overlaps at its northern edge with the original "Gerrymander")
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare Silver Plans prices falling, on average, 0.2% in 48 cities on: November 16, 2014, 11:26:17 pm
There is a hell of a lot of variation here, even within states. 

NYT has a map.
Quote
In about a fifth of the counties in states using the federal insurance exchange, premiums for the lowest-priced silver plans will increase by 10 percent or more. But rates for the same plans will decrease in all of Maine, Montana and New Hampshire, and most parts of Mississippi and South Dakota.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 16, 2014, 11:20:44 pm
Yes, only 72% cite it as a major concern, as opposed to 74% earlier this year. It's obviously not a major problem anymore.

In 2013, Republicans were guaranteeing that Obamacare would lead to a second Great Depression. Now their argument is "Bbbbut Obamacare is only making things slightly better."

It's time to give it up.

Slightly better than what?  Business are feeling slightly better about the ACA then they used to be? Yes, it's true, it certainly could have been worse.

It's time to give up cherry-picking articles to post here and serve as puff pieces for a monster of legislation that has real benefits but nonetheless is deeply, severely flawed.  People who actually run small businesses tend not to be so enthusiastic (left-wing lobbying group Small Business Majority notwithstanding).

48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Small Businesses Less Anxious About Health Costs, Thanks to Obamacare on: November 16, 2014, 02:33:33 pm
Yes, only 72% cite it as a major concern, as opposed to 74% earlier this year. It's obviously not a major problem anymore.
49  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: November 16, 2014, 11:12:15 am
If only I had a cat...
 or better yet,
 Obama could of tape the buttered bread to himself and showed the Chinease how best to deal with pollution and their disatants.
50  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you ever consider getting into medicine? on: November 16, 2014, 12:15:12 am
I have considered it.  I really like the idea of being able to help heal someone, and I think I would have a good mind for diagnosis.  However the whole guts and bodily fluids thing presents an insurmountable barrier for me.
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