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26  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 10, 2008, 04:03:21 pm
state - Obama/Clinton

Maine - 65ish/35ish
Maryland - 95ish/5ish
Virginia - 95ish/5ish
Ohio - Obama edge
Texas - Obama edge
27  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: who do you THINK will be the Democratic vice presidential nominee? on: February 10, 2008, 03:56:51 pm
Clark
28  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 10, 2008, 03:56:29 pm
Obama/Clinton - 65ish/35ish Smiley
29  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: mccain. wow. on: February 09, 2008, 11:08:02 pm
Huckabee sweep. I love it! Paul's doing so well in my state. I love a divided Republican party!
30  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 09, 2008, 11:05:26 pm
We're now at Obama 63ish and Hillary 37ish, and rightly so. Who's up for another Obama sweep on Tuesday?
31  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Feb. 9th and 10th election predictions on: February 09, 2008, 01:31:35 pm
Obama and McCain sweep. Only very close state is Maine, where Obama eckes out a victory.
32  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 09, 2008, 01:30:32 pm
Obama/Hillary is about 60/40 right now.
33  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Is McCain In 2008 Anything Like Dole in 1996? on: February 09, 2008, 01:26:49 pm
He just needs to fall off a stage to complete the comparison.

That is a hilarious line.  Good work.

But I believe McCain is a much more substantial Presidential candidate than was Dole.

But by how much? And what about the diaper issue?
34  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Now that McCain has to start thinking about VPs on: February 08, 2008, 03:18:56 pm
Sanford all the way.
35  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 07, 2008, 09:23:45 pm
McCain's only at 36 now? I guess the GOP really is divided.
36  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Will Huckabee or Romney win any more states? And when will they drop out? on: February 07, 2008, 02:13:07 pm
Now that Romney's out, I think Huckabee can win at least a few more states, enough to surpass Romney in the delegate vote. By staying in for a while, he makes becoming veep all the more likely.
37  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Was South Carolina what did if for Obama? on: February 07, 2008, 02:11:14 pm
After the South Carolina primary, we started seeing Obama build momentum coming into ST. My question is whether or not his SC victory is chiefly responsible for that (given that he WAXED Hillary there), or, was it any other reason you can think of (a wave of endorsements, which didn't give him Nevada, or all the money he had raised in January, etc.)?
38  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: How surprised is Hillary? on: February 07, 2008, 02:08:06 pm
Very surprised, but not dumbfounded. I don't think even Hillary could have thought she'd had the primary totally locked up pre-SC.
39  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 07, 2008, 02:10:32 am
Hahaha.

...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
40  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama campaign has raised $4.4 million today on: February 07, 2008, 01:55:01 am
The Spin War could not possibly be better for Obama right now.
41  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 07, 2008, 01:54:30 am
Obama's in high 50s and Hillary's in low 40s on intrade now.
42  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who had a Better night Obama or Clinton? on: February 07, 2008, 01:51:38 am
looks like 38.7% of this forum are hillary hacks LOL

No kiddin. If she had such a great night, why'd she do her speech so far ahead of Obama?
43  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination? on: February 06, 2008, 07:51:10 pm
Obama is in good shape. I'm surprised as many people on intrade and this forum think Hillary is going to win. Granted, she's still got an OK chance, but the fact that she and her husband are using an additional $5 million of their personal wealth for her campaign should be a pretty clear indicator of how things have been and will be going for her.

The next big contests aren't until March when Ohio and Texas vote. In the meantime, we're going to have a handful of states spread out on the rest of the month. Obama is the favorite in most of them, and that'll have a nice psychological impact on the race--Obama wins again, a week later Obama had another good night, Obama won another state today, etc. By the time Ohio and Texas vote, Obama'll have solid momentum, and have won a lot more states (though delegates are ultimately what matter) than Hillary, and I'd bet good money that by that point in the race, he'll have a lead over Hillary in the national popular vote, even if it's small, also pretty important in establishing himself as the clear frontrunner.

Obama raised a ton of money in January because a lot of people are supporting him with small contributions--Hillary's rich white DC crowd have all maxed themselves out. No matter what, Obama will be spending a lot more money in Ohio and Texas than Hillary.

The big wild cards for the Democratic nomination are Gore and Edwards endorsements, and obviously, there's no way in hell they'll endorse Hillary.

I think the only way Hillary can win this thing is if she pulls off some surprising victories over the next few weeks (i.e. not just Virginia, which Obama could win anyway, even if he's looking to do better in Maryland). I find that prospect unlikely, but even then, Obama'll probably have a decent delegate lead going into Ohio/Texas primary day.

Also, if Obama is behind a little in delegates after Ohio/Texas (though Hillary being a little behind, given her performance last night and the fact that we've got pretty good Obama states coming up, is far more likely), he can just say "I'm the underdog, so the fight goes on." He can definitely do that as long as he wins either Ohio OR Texas. If Hillary's behind by then, given how much time she spent as the frontrunner, she's gonna look a bit depressing by that point, as in "Damn, how did you not lock this up by now Ms. Inevitability?"

In other words, if she's behind in delegates in March, and the Obama delegate lead is a little bigger than it was a couple weeks before than, there'll be a ton of voices in the party who will be shouting for her to drop out, especially because the GOP nomination will almost assuredly be wrapped up for McCain by then. The only way Hillary continues to fight after that--way after her fundraising dries up and Obama keeps getting cash--is if she holds out hope for Pennsylvania (which'll be a month after Ohio/Texas). I doubt she could keep the race going for a whole entire month with no real interesting contests in between if she's in a bad place at that point.

So basically, you have to ask yourself, what are the odds that Hillary wins half the states before March, and then beats Obama in BOTH Ohio and Texas, so that Pennsylvania can't be Obama's last chance? Not good.
44  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Potomac Primaries. on: February 06, 2008, 03:23:40 am
Obama/McCain for all of them. Obama'll definitely be going into those contests with a lot of momentum.
45  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama's VP pick - Tom Daschle? on: February 05, 2008, 12:28:43 pm
No way on Daschle. Think Clark or Richardson.
46  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Who will "win" tomorrow? on: February 04, 2008, 08:11:33 pm
Obama. He's in a much better position that he was a week ago, and how the race was a week ago pretty much defines the "expectations game."
47  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: New Tradesports rankings on: February 04, 2008, 02:33:47 pm
Go Obama!
48  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Hillary's numbers must be dropping... on: February 04, 2008, 02:33:04 pm
Gee, what a coincidence that this once again happens on the eve of a major primary date. I'm hoping the media at large ignores it this time.

No kiddin. Obama's doing quite well right now: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/national.poll/index.html
49  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Hillary giving up? on: February 03, 2008, 11:46:17 pm
1-4 don't make much sense. I agree with the "she really doesn't want to lose CA" argument and the "maxed out donors" arguments. NY and NJ should be easy wins for her.
50  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Is it over? on: January 30, 2008, 04:12:14 am
Huckabee's probably doin better on ST than Romney, so yeah, I don't see how McCain can lose now.
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