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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / 2016: The War of the Five POTUS on: February 22, 2016, 06:32:36 pm
Trump wins majority delegates at the RNC in July 21, but the Republican establishment freaks out and keeps the nomination from him via brokered convention, and Rubio becomes the anointed candidate. Embittered and still uber-popular, Trump reverses his pledge to Norquist, runs as an independent under the Make America Great Again Party.

A week later, the Democratic nominee is Hillary, who prevails in a very close primary fight and is widely perceived to have been selected via brokered convention (despite the rumor being most likely untrue). She wins the nomination, loses the mandate. Revolt risk in the Democratic party is at record heights. RNC is already over for a week and Trump has already announced his third-party candidacy. Anti-Hillary groups, furious at the party establishment but perceiving progressive victory to be inevitable since the right-wing is divided, switch to an unprecedentedly massive write-in campaign for Sanders. Despite only capturing the attention, much less support of a minority of formerly pro-Bernie voters, disgruntlement at the party machinery and discomfort at voting for Hillary causes uncertainty in many Democrats, especially with the youth. Sanders himself rejects any sort of third party run, but his movement has marched onwards without him, intent on drafting him via write-in; direct democracy by sidestepping the party nomination process entirely. He also does not endorse or support Hillary, despite officially conceding to her at the convention.

Bloomberg jumps in as centrist unity figure. Soft five-way race. Clinton (D) vs. Rubio (R) vs. Trump (M) vs. Sanders (D/S- write-in only) vs. Bloomberg (U)

Who would the likely running mates be, and how would this play out?

Feel free to swap Rubio for some other establishment figure as well, if the RNC feels that he can't beat Hillary. Maybe Romney?
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Webb be the perfect VP choice for a Bloomberg run? on: February 22, 2016, 06:23:55 pm
Incoherence works when faced with the already incoherent populism of Trump, and the extreme (for American audiences) retro-New Deal social democracy of Sanders, though. Both running mates just need to be mainstream enough to be vaguely socially liberal, fiscally conservative, ultra-moderate to appeal to people alarmed by the other two.

Agreed that it'd be low energy, but then who would be better, and willing, to run with Bloomberg? Nader?
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Would Webb be the perfect VP choice for a Bloomberg run? on: February 22, 2016, 06:14:28 pm
Not that Bloomberg is going to run, but if he did (against Trump and Sanders- do not consider this scenario if Rubio or Hillary are nominated).

  • Already considered running as an independent. (Though rejected it)
  • Balances the ticket very well (Bloomberg is northern, wealthy, business magnate, Jewish; Webb is southern, more working class, Vietnam veteran, WASP)
  • Both are already on the moderate-fringes of the party (Bloomberg is a Rockefeller-RINO type, Webb is pretty Blue Dog), but in a way more mainstream than Sanders or Trump.
  • Can appeal to the status quo, older, white, male demographic (establishment Republicans, conservative Democrats who can't stomach Trump). So essentially a pseudo-bipartisan unity ticket.

On the other hand the two cancel each other out on gun control, among other issues. Who else would be good for Bloomberg?
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Jon Huntsman have run this year? on: February 22, 2016, 03:58:51 pm
Okay, how well would he have done if Kasich hadn't run?

I think despite being a better candidate and person in general, he would have done worse than Kasich, probably. He had his reputation from 2012 and working for Obama that would have held him back.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Should Jon Huntsman have run this year? on: February 22, 2016, 03:04:54 pm
Given that Kasich is doing better than he did, and that Huntsman is the real deal, he could have at least had a somewhat honorable defeat by Super Tuesday.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Potential Bernie Sanders Zombie Campaign? on: February 21, 2016, 03:30:51 pm
Saw this online:

Quote
the D nominee is Hillary, who prevails in a very close primary fight and is widely perceived to have been selected via brokered convention (despite the rumor being most likely untrue). She wins the nomination, loses the mandate. Revolt risk in the Democratic party is at record heights. RNC is already over for a week and Trump has already announced his third-party candidacy. Anti-Hillary groups, furious at the party establishment but perceiving progressive victory to be inevitable since the right-wing is divided, switch to an unprecedentedly massive write-in campaign for Sanders. Despite only capturing the attention, much less support of a minority of formerly pro-Bernie voters, disgruntlement at the party machinery and discomfort at voting for Hillary causes uncertainty in many Democrats, especially with the youth. Sanders himself rejects any sort of third party run, but his movement has marched onwards without him, intent on drafting him via write-in; direct democracy by sidestepping the party nomination process entirely. Bloomberg jumps in as centrist unity figure. Soft five-way race. The War of the Five POTUS.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Underestimate Michael R. Bloomberg at your own risk on: February 21, 2016, 03:28:52 pm
After bearing witness to the Rise of Trump, I'm certainly not going to underestimate the appeal of other vaguely-fascist New York billionaires.

The question is, how many can one race support?
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich confirmed as Huntsman 2.0: Wont even be in Iowa for the Caucus on: January 29, 2016, 01:05:59 am
Once again, Kasich is no Huntsman.

From a liberal/leftist standpoint, he's actually worse than Huntsman. And has a bad personality.

Quote
John Kasich is an arrogant, prickly, rude, and off-putting jerk, who childishly ignores those who oppose him when they are in the same room together, while refusing to debate publicly, berates those who challenge him, liberal and conservative alike, and favors superstition-based acquiescence in the face of a scientifically-proved threat to our very existence.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Analogize Kasich on: January 28, 2016, 05:58:55 pm
From a liberal/leftist standpoint, he's actually worse than Huntsman. And has a bad personality.

Quote
John Kasich is an arrogant, prickly, rude, and off-putting jerk, who childishly ignores those who oppose him when they are in the same room together, while refusing to debate publicly, berates those who challenge him, liberal and conservative alike, and favors superstition-based acquiescence in the face of a scientifically-proved threat to our very existence.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio Not Winning the Establishment Because He's too Conservative on: January 25, 2016, 01:32:34 pm
I don't thinkRubio is really a moderate establishment guy. He's just moderate compared to hardline right wingers like Cruz. The Donald is more moderate on most issues (social issues, taxes, foreign policy- Trump likes to play the bully, but he's no warmonger and no neocon).
In rhetoric only. By most other measures, he is just as conservative as Cruz if not more so.

With Trump (and Fiorina, Cain, etc.) all we have is rhetoric. We don't have governing or voting history to go on.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Commission on Presidential Debates is prepping for a 3rd party candidate. on: January 25, 2016, 01:29:30 pm
The obvious answer isn't Bloomberg. It's Trump, if the GOP doesn't nominate him.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bloomberg Running Mate? on: January 24, 2016, 07:14:44 pm
I feel like Bloomberg would choose someone like Huntsman.
Literally my dream ticket.

Ugh, could you possibly be more boring politically? What's next? You support "common sense reform"?

McCain/Lieberman would be more boring.

I want Huntsman but don't see the appeal of Bloomberg. There's plenty of RINO mavericks out there- Schwarzenegger would have been cool before his scandal. Dunno if there are any high-profile Blue Dogs or other Democrats who could appeal to Republicans right now besides Webb. But Webb's zaniness sort of reminds me of Zell Miller in '04.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Meta: Who predicted Trump? on: January 24, 2016, 06:58:02 pm
With some tinkering of the Search function, I was able to find posts from 2004 discussing Trump running as a Reform party candidate, saying how he's a libertarian. Ah, those were some far-off days.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Meta: Who predicted Trump? on: January 24, 2016, 03:08:44 pm
from If you could pick the Republican nominee in 2016

I would choose Donald Trump and have him focus on New York and California.

Donald Trump 2016? in December 2013
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Meta: Who predicted Trump? on: January 24, 2016, 03:01:36 pm
On this forum, were there any early posts that didn't dismiss Trump outright, and accidentally saw him come to prominence?

I just found a couple of unintentional ones

from the "Best" Possible Election thread:

Entertaining?

George Clooney (Democratic nominee) and Donald Trump (GOP nominee)

from the War of the Roses future history thread (Trump disappears in the post after):

Running Start

Surprisingly, Governor Pawlenty became one of the first prospective candidates to enter the race, forming an exploratory committee in March. At the time, Pawlenty was joined only by businessman Herman Cain and Speaker Gingrich. Pawlenty's decision expedited the thought process of his prospective opponents. Several candidates occupying a similar niche within the Republican Party, such as Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator John Thune, have poured cold water on the idea of a campaign, voicing their preference for the legislature. Governor Mitch Daniels, on the other hand, remains open to the possibility, and is continuing to visit early primary states. Of the Southern pols, including Governor Haley Barbour, Governor Bobby Jindal, and Senator Jim DeMint, the 800-pound gorilla in the room seems to be less Pawlenty's underwhelming candidacy than Governor Perry's impending entrance into the race.

The strangest event of the contest thus far has been mogul Donald Trump's meteoric ascent to the top of the polls, based solely on prominent dog-whisling. This is probably a harbinger of things to come.

Gallup Poll
Donald Trump 16%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Rick Perry 10%
Tim Pawlenty 9%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Ron Paul 6%
Michelle Bachmann 6%
Mitch Daniels 6%
Scott Brown 2%
Herman Cain 1%

But perhaps the best one is this thread by Napoleon, wherein he is called a troll:
is it Trump time?

Who was subsequently called out for it in at least another thread, this one.

Scratch that, he also suggests that Trump (or Ron Paul) is the 2016 Republican nominee for president in this thread, but offhandedly, because the point of that one is to discuss Romney's return as a VP candidate. That, perhaps, is the best thread unintentionally predicting the state of things.

Good times.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Meg Whitman: Fiorina isn't qualified to be president on: November 03, 2015, 01:50:43 pm
Or maybe she was bad at being CEO at eBay, I forgot
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Meg Whitman: Fiorina isn't qualified to be president on: November 03, 2015, 02:08:59 am
Wasn't Whitman also a lousy CEO at HP, just not as bad as Fiorina or Apotheker?
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: This GOP Race is Truly Amazing on: November 03, 2015, 02:07:46 am
I want to outdo the zaniness. I'm annoyed that Lessig has been forced out of the race by DNC debate-rigging shenanigans, and am prepared to vote for Trump should he secure the GOP nomination. Let this race be determined by the people's candidates, regardless of which party. Populism without parties!
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / If Gen. Petraeus had not leaked information, would he have run for president? on: November 02, 2015, 02:38:59 pm
And more interestingly, would he have run as a Democratic candidate?
70  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Katanga- run an African nation with some commies! on: November 11, 2011, 10:49:17 pm
I've fixed the link to the game!11
71  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Katanga- run an African nation with some commies! on: November 11, 2011, 12:21:01 am
Is anyone interested in playing a nation simulation game? Katanga may be on the RevLeft forums but it's really great. Here's a snippet from the latest turn news:

Quote
The Socialist Federation of the Congo in International News
Christian Science Monitor: "A growing number of international observers agree that the intervention of the armed forces of Congo-Lumumbaville played a decisive role in averting a far more horrific death toll in the country.... The new Rwandan coalition government has already adopted a foreign policy friendly to its supposed liberators, but also vowing to respect democracy and to take a leading role in the reconstruction and national reconciliation of the country."
The New York Times: "The continued fighting between the DRC and the SFC has seen the fortunes of battle shift in favor of the latter, with US officials now echoing the UN's calls for a ceasefire agreement between the two states to be followed up with a comprehensive peace treaty."
Voice of Africa: "Atrocities at the border are a common sight, every day Hutu supremacists backed by military men who hail from Kinshasa march onwards to harass or outright attack Tutsi villages or government outposts. This aggressive campaign has been sanctioned by militarist elements inside Washington who are aiming to secure a government—no matter how brutal, unrepresentative and altogether reactionary—which fully accords with the interests of American imperialism and neo-colonial subjugation."

That's right, this is an AH where Katanga managed to secede, became communist, and invaded Rwanda in the '90s to preempt the genocide.

Feel free to post questions or comments on this thread, or PM me.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Terry (D) vs. Karger (R) on: March 08, 2011, 10:14:21 pm
As per the Wikipedia article on the upcoming election.

Democratic Party

Randall Terry, pro-life activist and founder of Operation Rescue from New York, who switched from the Republican Party in January 2011.[8][9]

Republican Party

Fred Karger, political consultant and gay activist from California

Who would win in a race?  Also, what possible chain of events would have led them to this situation?  What third party candidates will people vote for?
73  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Petraeus again insists he won't run for prez in 2012 on: November 12, 2009, 03:20:05 am
McCrystal is the new Petraeus anyways.
74  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joseph Cao has a long career ahead of him on: November 12, 2009, 03:16:07 am
Does everyone in this thread doubt that he voted it because of his Catholic beliefs or something?

RCC social teaching is a lot more economically leftist than most Americans realize, especially when it comes down to something that's a matter of life and death.
75  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Eight-party America on: March 18, 2009, 03:06:19 pm
Anyone else interested in this?
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