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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 10:21:19 am
The opinions from Ralston and Schale are very interesting, but they are democrats, for balance are there similar Republican operatives giving their regular take on numbers?
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:18:55 am
Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

Is it a bad number for early voting, as election day voting may skews republican?
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI: Strategic National - TIE on: November 04, 2016, 03:03:00 pm
Seems that nearly every poll is either junk. Why do them if you're not going to try to be accurate?

Are you looking for an answer more complicated than "to. make. money" ?
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 11:06:57 am
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.



So clearly these numbers are promising for Republicans, if 2012 figures are truly comparable to 2016. But are they? I'm reading lots of pieces saying that Republicans and white voters are early-voting at record numbers, which is serving to cannabalise their election day vote. And if this is the case, then of course the EV gap between Dem and Rep wil shift towards the Reps.

Is this true? Is the % increase in early voting indeed greater than the % increase in number of registered voters? Are Republicans 'discovering' early-voting this year?
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary in danger of losing Michigan and Virginia? on: November 04, 2016, 07:09:06 am
Michigan maybe.

Looking at the polls with Clinton having a narrow lead nationwide, and yet enjoying substantial leads in NY, CA and VA, up in NC and FL, polling as expected in WI, MN, PA, CO and much closer than a Dem normally is in TX, GA, AZ - so where is Trump strong for the national polls to be close? Part of that is OH, part MO but he also has to be closer than a Republican normally is somewhere unexpected, and MI seems ripe for that.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has anyone else found following the polls less enjoyable than in past elections? on: November 04, 2016, 05:44:15 am
Polling has just become another example of things in our world that exist to make money rather than provide objectivity,  fact, truth or be a service to the public at large. There are still pollsters that strive for accuracy,  but they are in a sea of companies who are out to make money, truth be damned.

There will be a result, but firms who got it wrong won't be ppunished because they made money out of being wrong and they will continue to do so
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Next week by this time, who is President-Elect? on: November 04, 2016, 03:25:50 am
McMullin
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Next week by this time, who is President-Elect? on: November 04, 2016, 03:24:36 am
Trump
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Next week by this time, who is President-Elect? on: November 04, 2016, 03:24:13 am
Clinton
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do you believe that Clinton is a criminal? on: November 03, 2016, 06:17:29 pm
I just saw an interview on the BBC with a woman who was basically asked this question - "why should Clinton be locked up?" "because she broke the law"..

and I think that's all you're going to get out of Trump supporters, people who believed she broke the law despite investigations that concluded she didn't.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Fox Clinton Foundation story on: November 03, 2016, 06:15:23 pm


Everyone has seen Hillary has sold favors & time for Foundation donations, but no1 gives a sh**.


an honest question then, what favours has she sold for Foundation donations?
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: WBUR (MASSINC) - Trump + 1 on: November 03, 2016, 06:01:01 pm
It seems like polling has shown a lot of people taking the step from Clinton to Undecided in the last couple days. Whether or not they'll make the leap from Undecided to Trump on election day is yet to be seen

I think thats very temporary because of the comey news, and not a permanent thing. Everyone is back for election day
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: WBUR (MASSINC) - Trump + 1 on: November 03, 2016, 09:27:07 am
I think that what happened is during the height of comey gate a lot of Democrats refused to commit to her in polls but have come back quickly, hence some strange polls. Certainly the feel of the election now is that she is quite comfortable but not reflected in these numbers - which are still all over the place
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538) on: November 02, 2016, 04:08:09 pm
VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 04:04:19 pm
so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

 and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538) on: November 02, 2016, 03:30:44 pm
Why say JUNK?

Looks obvious really, a large chunk of Clinton supporters refused to answer, hence a crashing drop.

As for what it means on election day, I'd hazard a guess that they still vote for her (or have already voted for her but don't want to say)
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 03:22:14 pm
Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

Your lack of understand of US law/elections is showing here. I don't really feel like explaining this in detail but a lot of laws that protect nonwhites (incl. the Voting Rights Act) have provisions that would be literally impossible to enforce if the government didn't keep this data.

Oh for sure, and also some naivety on my part, and a desire for utopian ideals... I get there were far deeper racial divisions in the US than in most other countries and things needed to be done - but now it feels like this is perpetuating the issue. When I vote over here the government doesn't know if I'm black or white or male or female, so they can't favour me or franchise against me, and thus I'm not part of some sub-group for campaigns to pore over and be 'targeted' or ignored... and for the media to fret over my 'groups' turnout stats... god it must be bloody awful for black and hispanic people to be discussed and dissected like this as one big single block of people... too simplistic?

Anyway, didn't mean to derail this thread, just never realised stats like this were kept and released to the public..
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 03:05:45 pm
Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 03:03:38 pm
Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

You have to declare the colour of your skin to register to vote? Stunning, in 2016.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 02:54:34 pm
Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 02:45:48 pm
Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 02:44:26 pm
Can the blue avatars stop with the abuse please. Its fine to spin the polls and look for evidence your candidate is winning, but can you do it without the abuse and sarcasm please, not necessary.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: AZ teacher to Muslim student:''I canít wait until Trump is elected... on: November 02, 2016, 02:25:38 pm
A lot of this kind of thing has been happening post-brexit in the UK, people having a go at eastern europeans and shouting that we've 'voted for you to leave so get out'. racist incidents are up by a huge amount since then and I'd expect similar in the states if Trump wins. That of course does not reflect on all Trump supporters but it will embolden those who are most excited by his anti-Mexico talk
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls: C+1 FL, C+3 NC, C+5 PA, T+5 OH on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:17 pm
At last a pollster I've heard of Smiley
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA on: November 02, 2016, 11:27:45 am
damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all
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