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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama doesn't 'get' the UK because he's not white - Romney adviser on: July 26, 2012, 12:14:12 pm

Then I just thought we needed to compare what a Romney visit to Britain would look like compared to the diplomatic fiascoes of Obama's visits.  Maybe that should have been a separate post.

Highly ironic considering today's events...
52  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Indiana on: July 26, 2012, 12:12:08 pm
I have a hard time seeing Romney winning it, because of 1) the "right-to-work" garbage;
Pretty sure polling in Indiana shows the majority of people support right-to-work. It's a great policy and I would love to see it adopted nationwide.

and 2) Romney closing a factory in Marion.

McCain won the county with Marion in 2008, but I can actually see Obama winning that county in 2012 because Romney's greed affected it so much.

I love the way you call making money 'greed'. It epitomizes a lot of what is wrong with the world.

Hang on, I agree that making money should not generically be termed 'greed', but he is specifically referring to making money by closing a factory and presumably putting people out of work, and I think doing something like that to 'make money' (as opposed to saving money) definitely falls into the definition of greed.
53  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama doesn't 'get' the UK because he's not white - Romney adviser on: July 26, 2012, 12:07:47 pm
The advisers spoke on the condition of anonymity because Mr Romney’s campaign requested that they not criticise the President to foreign media.

That's because President Obama's insanely popular abroad and the GOP name is villianous.


Indonesia

I'm not getting the warm and fuzzy feeling that Obama's "insane popularity overseas" should bring.
[/quote]

The one of your examples that I know about, it is staggering that you of all people would reference a protest by the unpopular and vile FPI as a way to damn Obama
54  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama doesn't 'get' the UK because he's not white - Romney adviser on: July 25, 2012, 09:01:52 am
The advisers spoke on the condition of anonymity because Mr Romney’s campaign requested that they not criticise the President to foreign media.

Brilliant! way to ignore your boss, advisors!
55  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Indiana on: July 22, 2012, 05:39:27 am
I'd be shocked if the state ends within 7-8 points this year.  It will almost certainly swing back to the R column, which is likely why no one is polling it.

Its strange though that a state can swing 20 points between elections, and then swing back by almost the same amount the next. I'm sure some of the swing was because of the hopey-changey stuff, but equally there are surely some underlying demographic changes meaning Indiana will stay close regardless
56  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Indiana on: July 21, 2012, 12:09:41 am
Hasn't been a poll there since March, by some no-name pollster. Does no-one care about this state anymore, does everyone assume it will have no role in this election at all?
57  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/NYT: Romney leads by 1 point on: July 18, 2012, 09:45:22 pm
Bain? Felon? Taxes? Swiss bank account?  Camen Islands?

Anyone...anyone?

Obama has closed 2 points since the last CBS/NYT poll?
58  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: University of New Hampshire: Obama up 4 on: July 18, 2012, 07:33:20 am
The WMUR Granite State Poll shows that 49 percent of likely New Hampshire voters said they will vote for Obama, compared to 45 percent who plan to vote for Romney. In April, Obama held a 9-point lead over Romney.

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/Poll-shows-race-tightening-for-president/-/9857748/15576784/-/yxcpoq/-/index.html#ixzz20uyPHtHA




Lol, those Bain attacks are working.

They were doing a Likely-voter Model in April ?
59  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney's "Summer of Bain" = Swift Boat 2.0 ? on: July 17, 2012, 10:38:25 am
I'd say that yes, Obama's campaign is currently in the midst of a 'swift boat' attack on Romeny based around his time at Bain Capital. The Swift Boat attacks on Kerry and the Bain attacks on Romeny have a number of things in common. Both take what was perceived to be one of the candidate's strengths and turn into a liability through constant bombardment. Both were a 'Death of 1000 Cuts', hitting on the same subject again and again from slightly different angles. Both featured a candidate who was apparently unwilling or unable to respond to the attacks promptly, clearly, and effectively.

The final impact, that worked on Kerry and appears to be close to working on Romney, is that they successfully defined the candidate in the public's mind, before he could present his own narrative. If Romney doesn't present a positive and straightforward position that sums up his time at Bain soon (probably before the Olympics get rolling) he's going to spend the rest of his quest for the Presidency being 'that rich capitalist @$$hole' which, in my opinion, not be good for his chances.

Good post
60  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: states Romney must win on: July 03, 2012, 07:42:26 am
Here's how I see the map right now:



Dark blue:  Romney's no matter what
Blue: Romney's unless Obama pulls a landslide
Light blue: Should be Romney's but Obama has a chance
Green: Total tossup
Pink: Should be Obama's but Romney has a chance
Red: Obama's unless Romney pulls a landslide
Dark red: Obama's no matter what

Romney needs all the blues and greens plus either Virgina or any two of the other pink states.


Right now I think Ohio should be pink
61  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac: Obama holds the lead in 3 critical swing states (FL, OH, PA) on: June 28, 2012, 03:57:47 am
Regardless, 38% in a must-win state from a respected pollster is not the news Romney wants right now
62  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac: Obama holds the lead in 3 critical swing states (FL, OH, PA) on: June 27, 2012, 05:29:29 am
Outlier or not, that is a shocking result for Romney in Ohio
63  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which states will Obama perform better in 2012 compared to 2008? on: May 24, 2012, 07:01:37 am
Alaska?
64  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would you rather run against Obama or Romney? on: May 24, 2012, 04:38:10 am

I don't get why Obama doesn't just run on these strengths, instead of demonizing private equity. Seems like he's not embracing what is a winning record, especially the first two bits.


He's not really running yet though is he, just starting to lay down some groundwork against his opponent. From the convention onward, when he starts unrolling some big speeches, everything you said will come out in spades.
65  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WV/PPP: Manchin leads by six on: October 25, 2010, 02:04:41 pm
I'm having a hard time trusting PPP as much since they went to work for DailyKos. Being frank.

and a hard time trusting Ras since they worked for Fox

seriously though, Kos fired their last pollsters for giving inaccurate biased results, so it clear Kos wants honest, real results. PPP are on the left of the spectrum, no doubts, but I struggle to see that its because of Dkos.
66  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Public Policy Polling: Kirk (R) with a 2-point lead on: October 22, 2010, 08:45:25 am
Obama better have some Chicago events scheduled.

On the 30th I think
67  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV: Mason-Dixon: Reid trails by 2, with or without leaners on: October 17, 2010, 01:30:18 am
I don't see the coat-tails. Many people in the middle will see it as 'fair' to vote against one Reid and for the other, but might feel a bit 'mean' if they vote against both.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in on: June 08, 2010, 08:22:54 pm
Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

Well, if it continues (still way too early, but this is why I asked if it was early voting, because if so, it would mean a whole lot more), my conclusion would be...

The outside progressive groups f-ed Halter in AR.  Or the state Dems had it out for him.  Wouldn't be the first time this occurred, btw.

Well its 134 votes to 126, compared to 690 v 510 v 291 last time. Not much to read into that, other than turnout is way down, or the remaining precinct is where all the votes are
69  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: States that will fall away from Obama in 2012 on: April 08, 2010, 10:11:42 am
NE-CD, IN, NC, OH, VA, FL and CO...which puts Obama at 260 to the GOP's 278 in the 2012 EV count.

VA will stay with Obama, the African American vote will be out in force again and that state is trending blue in any case. I would put a fair amount on NC staying with Obama for much the same reason.

As things stand I would expect IN to flip, and quite possibly FL (and OH?), but AZ and MO to go the other way
70  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Name the 44th President.... on: December 13, 2008, 08:34:13 am
The House and Senate, however, will remain firmly in GOP hands.

Or not...
71  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: HuffPost: Obama's gonna close Gitmo! on: November 10, 2008, 12:44:13 pm
Wonderful! Now we can clog up our justice system with terrorists! I thought we already saw with Clinton that treating this as a law enforcement case didn't work?

"We can't put people in a dungeon forever without processing whether they deserve to be there."
72  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Predict Pennsylvania on: November 05, 2008, 01:57:04 pm
everyone's so conservative. Obama 55 McCain 44. Smiley

Thank you, I shall claim my accolades now! I should point out mine was the most Obama-friendly prediction in this thread, and the right one!!! Smiley
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Large swing counties on: November 05, 2008, 02:01:04 am
Loads in Iowa swung 15%+

In Penn, not necessarily so big but telling nevertheless:

Berks: Bush+7 to Obama+9
Chester: Bush+4 to Obama+9
Monroe: Tie to Obama+17
Lackawanna: Kerry+14 to Obama+27
Erie: Kerry+8 to Obama+19
Centre: Bush+4 to Obama+11
Elk: Bush+9 to Obama+4
Susquehanna: Bush+22 to McCain+11
Dauphin: Bush+8 to Obama+11

and so on
74  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Battleground Final 50-48 Obama on: November 05, 2008, 12:34:34 am
  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, they virtually nailed
  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, at 51-48, it seems they virtually nailed it. We'll see how much California stretches the gap later, but thats pretty impressive.
75  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama: "Under my [...] plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." on: November 04, 2008, 11:33:46 am
Obama admits his energy plan would cost at least $150 billion. 

Which will provide a lot of jobs and kick start the economy

Yeah, sure it will.  I wonder, how does Obama intend to create new jobs and get energy companies to be more innovative and invest in new technologies when he is going to charge them $500 per person in the United States for what he calls "excessive profits"?

Oh, I don't think today is the day for this kind of debate. Energy is such a huge issue and everyone here can cherrypick different parts of the issue to make their case. I know what I want from an energy policy, and although Obama has some differences with my views, its a lot lot closer than Bush's policy, so I'm confident it will improve.

Obama has declared that we will invest $15bn/year over the next decade in renewable energy, creating 5 million new jobs - largely by expanding the use of renewables to supply a tenth of our electricity within 10 years, insulate a million homes a year and put a million 'plug-in hybrids' on the road by 2015. He will also invest in clean engine technology, improve fuel ecomony standards by 4 percent a year and give a tax credit of $7000 to people who but 'green cars'.

John McCain, fwiw, has also promised millions of green jobs. Japan, Australia and the UK are all planning similar investments as central parts of their economic rescue plans, and many US economists see a Green New Deal as a fundamental part of the solution to the financial crisis.

So there you go.
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