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51  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Do you trust the Gallup Poll showing Romney up 7? on: October 21, 2012, 11:46:02 pm
'Trust' is the wrong word, its just one data point out of many, and is factored into the average of polls. IBD is showing the same in reverse.

can't say I wouldn't rather it showed Obama +7 though.
52  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: States that could surprise on election night on: October 21, 2012, 07:40:08 am
Doubtful it will happen, but imagine if Ohio, Virginia, NC, Florida are called for Romney, followed by New Hampshire for the win... and then Arizona goes for Obama to seal the election.

Now THAT would be a rollercoaster of emotions for everyone
53  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predictions with 20 days to go on: October 20, 2012, 10:31:22 pm

Romney 270
Obama 268

Could be. Some what intriguingly, that map would have been an Obama win 274-264 in 2008
54  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran Agrees to Nuclear Talks for First Time Ever on: October 20, 2012, 10:24:26 pm
Could be a sneaky Romney campaign thing -- reminding voters that the negotiations haven't happened (without making Romney or someone associated with him call for them themselves) and making the WH look bad. Probably not, the WH can achieve looking bad on its own.

The NYT is surely a slightly better rag than falling for Romney campaign guys passing themselves off as WH insiders?

I'd bloody well hope so...
55  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney beefing up Penn? on: October 20, 2012, 10:04:32 pm
There's a lot of upside to campaigning in Penn, as Silver points out. The EV's alone mean he can lose Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia or Colorado and still win the election.

Seems unlikely he could win PA and lose Ohio, but if the Obama campaign treats it as a head-fake and doesn't respond, he could steal a march on Obama there. Despite all the money they are throwing at Ohio, they can't move the needle because of an effective message from Obama. If they get in to PA before Obama, maybe they'll have more luck

56  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 18, 2012, 11:44:40 pm
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.

so not too big then
57  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: YouGov - State by State Polls on: October 17, 2012, 09:58:01 am
Its as if the debates never happened
58  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL: Zogby: Obama leads by 3 on: October 17, 2012, 09:55:31 am
Zogby you beaut, always trusted his polls........
59  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which Moment of The Debate Will Have Staying Power on: October 17, 2012, 12:35:04 am
In Australia they rather like replaying the 'my pension isn't as big as yours' line
60  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CBS 2nd Debate - Obama 37 Romney 30 Tie 33 on: October 16, 2012, 10:20:52 pm
Just getting word.

On the Economy, Romney 65 Obama 34

Down from 71-27 pre debate

funny how you can do anything you like with stats! So the point of debate is to change minds, and clearly some minds were changed towards Obama. Thanks for pointing that out Phil!
61  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: In an electoral tie with a Democratic sentate on: October 16, 2012, 12:34:21 am
If a tie happened the winner of the PV would be claiming legitimacy, which would create a big argument in either the house for Obama or in the senate for Ryan. Would be messy as hell
62  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: In an electoral tie with a Democratic sentate on: October 15, 2012, 07:18:39 pm
All rather depends on the PV winner I think as to who has legitimacy. Romney wins, a lot of pressure on Biden to stand aside and let Ryan take it. Obama wins the PV, Biden is almost obliged to stand in.

Of course if Obama wins PV, there will be huge pressure on house to elect him President
63  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP Obama up 7 in Pennsylvania on: October 15, 2012, 06:36:48 pm
So this basically confirms Obama is up 3-4....

nationally, yeah?
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would you really like to see run in 2016. on: October 15, 2012, 04:26:24 am
Sarah Palin. That would be awesome
65  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the Debate? on: October 12, 2012, 08:43:51 am
Biden had good points and bad points,some of his punches hit and some missed, the laughing made sense some of the time and didn't at others.

But Ryan looked like a schoolboy, gave no reason to vote for him and was worryingly amateur at times.

Winning or losing doesn't really matter here. Ryan did not look VP material.
66  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew apparently has Romney leading Obama 49-45. on: October 08, 2012, 08:46:02 pm
Presumably people who responded to the poll did not want to acknowledge voting for a chump who got his rear kicked repeatedly. Shrug.

Yeah that .... got the whuppin' he deserved, eh krazen?  Please try to watch your language in order to avoid being perceived as using racist codings.

The only one with racist codings on this board is you Opebo. Repeatedly.
67  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney on: October 06, 2012, 12:27:38 am
. they don't even like the country for that matter.

oh do f**k  off
68  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH: Rasmussen: Obama +1 on: October 06, 2012, 12:12:22 am
I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

Again, I thought party ID was totally irrelevant to all of you. Where's Craigo when we really need him to remind us how stupid we all are?

But since you asked, sure, D+3 is feasible. It was D+8 in '08, EVEN in 2010, D+3 in '06, and R+ 5 in '04. So yeah, D+3 "makes sense."

But remember, you're stupid for talking about party ID. An amateur (j/k, of course Wink

This shift in party ID between polls due to Romney's standing increasing suddenly seems to be completely attributable to the factors explained to us by Craigo. So I don't see your point
69  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What more does a candidate need to do to lose a Presidential election? on: October 03, 2012, 07:10:08 am
I think he has done enough to lose it. And he will.
70  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama campaign uses down syndrome woman to attack Romney on: October 02, 2012, 08:26:20 am
Just when you thought the Obama campaign couldn't get any lower.

Shameful, absolutely shameful, exploiting a down syndrome individual in this manner, using her for their own selfish, crass, political purposes.

Oh my days, we're only a few weeks out of the Paralympics and people are talking like this? If she is being exploited then so is every member of the public ever featured in a political ad ever.
71  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP/DailyKos weekly poll: Obama+5 nationally (likely voters) on: September 28, 2012, 07:31:06 am
The idea that it's somehow ridiculous to predict Democratic turnout similar to 2008 may have held some truth during the summer, but it doesn't anymore. Democratic enthusiasm is back up to 2008 levels and this election is looking more and more like a repeat of four years ago.

Ah, where do you get that?

I know that, at this point, there were both stronger registration and campaign activities for Obama in Phila in 2008.  I've been surprised how quiet the voter registration office was last week.

PPP is in line with Gallup.

I get it from the numerous polls that show as much, a considerably better source than your anecdotal evidence from a solid Obama state.

Well, the polls are not showing it.  I'm not seeing it on the ground. 

I'm sure the poster JJ has a rule about anecdotal evidence (yard signs etc.) not being important. 2nd rule maybe? We could ask him?
72  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Gravis Marketing: Obama up 5 on: September 27, 2012, 12:57:13 am
Mitt has to come out the winner of the debates to win this election. If not, he needs to be praying for a major gaffe from Obama or horrific job numbers.

and praying for horrific job numbers is just what a candidate for President of the United States should be doing
73  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Are the polls skewed? on: September 26, 2012, 09:08:57 pm
As I understand it, the polls are asking people to 'self-identify' as D, R or I, not asking for their registration.

The exit polls on the other hand record registration. So it isn't surprising that they don't seem to match.

But this may be wrong, calling @Craigo
74  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Florida: Gravis Marketing - Romney 48% Obama 47% on: September 18, 2012, 08:58:54 pm
One more point: I don't have it on me, but in grad school I did a short paper on party ID and two-party vote share. It's lost to history, my old college email server, and a fried laptop, but the basic results: (and you can run the numbers yourself using Roper's exit poll data, which dates back to 1976)

There is virtually no relationship between party ID and that party's presidential vote share. In fact, for the elections 1976-2004 there is actually a very slight negative correlation for both parties. A hell of a lot more people claimed to be Democratic than actually voted for Carter in both 1976 and 1980. If you remove those two elections and run only 1984-2004 (the post Solid South era), you get a positive correlation, but one that's so weak (below .25) that it's basically equivocal.

The correlation for the differences between party IDs and presidential vote shares is a little better - but still weak. (And it gets demolished if you add 1980 and 1976, of course).

None of this includes 2008, because that election hadn't occurred when I ran the numbers. But the bottom line is that the relationship basically doesn't exist - the 1984, 1988, and 1992 electorates were all 38D-35R, for example.

"Self-professed party ID is very volatile, and a dependent variable of voter intention."

lol no and certainly not today.
"In other words, if you think that topline results are due to party ID, you've got it backwards."

Yes I think and polls for now confirm that.

Guy, I'm on this forum since 2003 and I can say to you that the party id is the base of the polling. Each day it's confirmed. Look at the last washington post poll with a D +9 sample, look at the ppp polls each week: there is a very strong correlation between the result of obama and the difference between democrats and republicans: greater the gap is, greater the obama result is.

And if Ras gives better results to Romney, it's due to the fact that the numbers of republicans is more important than in others polls.

And I can continue again and again... it's quite logical: Obama will do better in a sample with 40 % of democrats than 30 %...

But what you say backs up what Craigo said, that Self-professed party ID is a dependent variable of voter intention. i.e. if a person wants to vote Romney they self-identify as republican, and vice-versa. You've just got the causal factors the wrong way round

So if more people support Obama, you'll have more self-identified democrats in the sample than if the same people preferred Romney

75  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO, VA, OH, FL - Purple Poll: Romney vaults into the lead in the big 3 on: August 16, 2012, 04:24:40 am

Purple R+2 Romney 46%
Ras Tie Romney 45%
PPP D+3 Romney 45%

There is one thing that is static in these Ohio polls.
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