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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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51  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which states will Obama perform better in 2012 compared to 2008? on: May 24, 2012, 07:01:37 am
Alaska?
52  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would you rather run against Obama or Romney? on: May 24, 2012, 04:38:10 am

I don't get why Obama doesn't just run on these strengths, instead of demonizing private equity. Seems like he's not embracing what is a winning record, especially the first two bits.


He's not really running yet though is he, just starting to lay down some groundwork against his opponent. From the convention onward, when he starts unrolling some big speeches, everything you said will come out in spades.
53  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WV/PPP: Manchin leads by six on: October 25, 2010, 02:04:41 pm
I'm having a hard time trusting PPP as much since they went to work for DailyKos. Being frank.

and a hard time trusting Ras since they worked for Fox

seriously though, Kos fired their last pollsters for giving inaccurate biased results, so it clear Kos wants honest, real results. PPP are on the left of the spectrum, no doubts, but I struggle to see that its because of Dkos.
54  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Public Policy Polling: Kirk (R) with a 2-point lead on: October 22, 2010, 08:45:25 am
Obama better have some Chicago events scheduled.

On the 30th I think
55  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV: Mason-Dixon: Reid trails by 2, with or without leaners on: October 17, 2010, 01:30:18 am
I don't see the coat-tails. Many people in the middle will see it as 'fair' to vote against one Reid and for the other, but might feel a bit 'mean' if they vote against both.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in on: June 08, 2010, 08:22:54 pm
Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

Well, if it continues (still way too early, but this is why I asked if it was early voting, because if so, it would mean a whole lot more), my conclusion would be...

The outside progressive groups f-ed Halter in AR.  Or the state Dems had it out for him.  Wouldn't be the first time this occurred, btw.

Well its 134 votes to 126, compared to 690 v 510 v 291 last time. Not much to read into that, other than turnout is way down, or the remaining precinct is where all the votes are
57  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: States that will fall away from Obama in 2012 on: April 08, 2010, 10:11:42 am
NE-CD, IN, NC, OH, VA, FL and CO...which puts Obama at 260 to the GOP's 278 in the 2012 EV count.

VA will stay with Obama, the African American vote will be out in force again and that state is trending blue in any case. I would put a fair amount on NC staying with Obama for much the same reason.

As things stand I would expect IN to flip, and quite possibly FL (and OH?), but AZ and MO to go the other way
58  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Name the 44th President.... on: December 13, 2008, 08:34:13 am
The House and Senate, however, will remain firmly in GOP hands.

Or not...
59  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: HuffPost: Obama's gonna close Gitmo! on: November 10, 2008, 12:44:13 pm
Wonderful! Now we can clog up our justice system with terrorists! I thought we already saw with Clinton that treating this as a law enforcement case didn't work?

"We can't put people in a dungeon forever without processing whether they deserve to be there."
60  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Predict Pennsylvania on: November 05, 2008, 01:57:04 pm
everyone's so conservative. Obama 55 McCain 44. Smiley

Thank you, I shall claim my accolades now! I should point out mine was the most Obama-friendly prediction in this thread, and the right one!!! Smiley
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Large swing counties on: November 05, 2008, 02:01:04 am
Loads in Iowa swung 15%+

In Penn, not necessarily so big but telling nevertheless:

Berks: Bush+7 to Obama+9
Chester: Bush+4 to Obama+9
Monroe: Tie to Obama+17
Lackawanna: Kerry+14 to Obama+27
Erie: Kerry+8 to Obama+19
Centre: Bush+4 to Obama+11
Elk: Bush+9 to Obama+4
Susquehanna: Bush+22 to McCain+11
Dauphin: Bush+8 to Obama+11

and so on
62  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Battleground Final 50-48 Obama on: November 05, 2008, 12:34:34 am
  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, they virtually nailed
  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, at 51-48, it seems they virtually nailed it. We'll see how much California stretches the gap later, but thats pretty impressive.
63  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama: "Under my [...] plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." on: November 04, 2008, 11:33:46 am
Obama admits his energy plan would cost at least $150 billion. 

Which will provide a lot of jobs and kick start the economy

Yeah, sure it will.  I wonder, how does Obama intend to create new jobs and get energy companies to be more innovative and invest in new technologies when he is going to charge them $500 per person in the United States for what he calls "excessive profits"?

Oh, I don't think today is the day for this kind of debate. Energy is such a huge issue and everyone here can cherrypick different parts of the issue to make their case. I know what I want from an energy policy, and although Obama has some differences with my views, its a lot lot closer than Bush's policy, so I'm confident it will improve.

Obama has declared that we will invest $15bn/year over the next decade in renewable energy, creating 5 million new jobs - largely by expanding the use of renewables to supply a tenth of our electricity within 10 years, insulate a million homes a year and put a million 'plug-in hybrids' on the road by 2015. He will also invest in clean engine technology, improve fuel ecomony standards by 4 percent a year and give a tax credit of $7000 to people who but 'green cars'.

John McCain, fwiw, has also promised millions of green jobs. Japan, Australia and the UK are all planning similar investments as central parts of their economic rescue plans, and many US economists see a Green New Deal as a fundamental part of the solution to the financial crisis.

So there you go.
64  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Battleground Final 50-48 Obama on: November 04, 2008, 11:20:12 am
Yeah, this is allocation of undecideds.

I lean towards the Tarrance projection.

of course you do Smiley
65  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Battleground Final 50-48 Obama on: November 04, 2008, 11:01:51 am
Wow, they were unbelievably accurate. I'll stress the unbelievably. Within a 10th on both Bush and Kerry's figures? exact on all 3 of Bush, Perot and Clinton, and again on Clinton, Dole and Perot? Why haven't we all been bowing down to them all year.

and glad to see that we win Smiley
66  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama: "Under my [...] plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." on: November 04, 2008, 10:55:03 am
Why shouldn't this kind of spending help?

When you consider it will be set aside primarily for alternative energy, the money will be spent more on R&D and high cost prototypes rather than in general commercial production.  And with his plans to make it more difficult for current energy production expansion to continue (coal, oil, nuclear), the cost of energy will rise, meaning that cost of materials and production will rise as a result.  Higher expenses on the smaller companies will lead to potential job layoffs, which could counter any job creation after a few years of development of the alternative energy platforms.  If Obama would just get that liberal stick out of his butt and embrace total energy development, then you would see stable to lower energy prices as well as many jobs being created by encouraging construction of power plants using proven technology while also spending on the R&D for future energy platforms.

There HAS to be a slight increase in cost of traditional energy (through emissions charges) as a stick to get the 'new' energy sources online and cheap. Otherwise nothing will change, which it has to if we are serious about energy independence and combatting global warming. I don't think it will be as dramatic as you suggest, and higher expenses on smaller companies will only happen if we can't get new energy sources online. And if we can't do that, Obama will scale down the costs so as not to hurt the middle-classes.

Very much agree with your second post, I'm particularly pleased that energy is getting as much play as it is, and hopefully one of the benefits of complete control for the DEMs is that a tru non-partisan policy for the future can be put in place, safe from all the horse-trading that nomally goes on between the parties. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if what you want to happen does
67  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama: "Under my [...] plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." on: November 04, 2008, 08:48:10 am
Obama admits his energy plan would cost at least $150 billion. 

Which will provide a lot of jobs and kick start the economy

Not necessarily.

At least you're not as adamant as JJ. Smiley

Why shouldn't this kind of spending help?
68  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread on: November 04, 2008, 07:59:11 am
R2Kos final poll

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 46 (+1)

Made up of +4 Sat, +4 Sun and +7 Mon
69  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gotta LOVE Missouri ! on: November 04, 2008, 07:55:02 am
What would happen if the actual votes resulted in a tie?


Like 1 million and 1 Obama vs. 1 million and 1 McCain?

 NV uses draw poker along with other random methods.

You mean they head down the casino's in Vegas? Man that would be good!
70  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama: "Under my [...] plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket." on: November 04, 2008, 06:03:46 am
Obama admits his energy plan would cost at least $150 billion. 

Which will provide a lot of jobs and kick start the economy
71  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gotta LOVE Missouri ! on: November 04, 2008, 05:52:06 am
What would happen if the actual votes resulted in a tie?


Like 1 million and 1 Obama vs. 1 million and 1 McCain?

I guess there must be a provision in each state's constitution for this - perhaps the Governor gets a deciding vote, or the state's legislature, or they split the electors?
72  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: 3 hours until Vermont opens... on: November 04, 2008, 05:35:00 am
Well I won't be voting this year, absentee ballot thingy didn't work out for me. Still registered in Mass even though haven't been there for ages. But I'm pretty confident that Sen Kerry, Rep Capuano and President-elect Obama won't need my votes today Smiley
73  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gotta LOVE Missouri ! on: November 04, 2008, 05:15:00 am
Final 5 polls

Zogby49-49
PPP49-49
SUSA48-48
Rasmussen49-49
ARG48-48

74  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen State Polls 11/3 on: November 03, 2008, 02:25:30 pm
They're all over the place in Florida - they've gone

O+5
M+1
O+4
M+1

in their last four polls.

M-D are supposed to be the gold standard in Florida, and they are at O+2. I should also point out that the last 16 florida polls before this one have all been Obama leads, with one Zogby tie.
75  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Reason 1,000,001 why the left wing media and Obama are complete jokes. on: November 03, 2008, 12:45:55 pm
So,

1. there is a tape thats been freely available since january, but the republicans and fox claim it has just surfaced
2. in the tape Obama says he supports clean coal and emissions taxes, but the republicans and fox claim he says he wants to bankrupt the coal industry.
3. it turns out McCain has the exact same position as Obama and has spoken on the senate floor in the same manner as Obama.

oh this is all so saddeningly familiar. What happened to real political debate in this country?

Here's a video showing what Mccain said then and what Fox is saying now..

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=wP6iqcrHvsE

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