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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 22, 2017, 07:03:54 pm
Richmond-Queensborough MIGHT flip to the NDP from Liberals. NDP reduced the margin of victory to ~170 from ~300 with about 1,000 absentee votes counted, and approximately another 1,000 absentee to go. Will find out more in about 40 minutes, when more absentee ballots are tabulated. If it doesn't entirely flip, it might still be subject to a recount though, if the margin of victory goes down to below 100 votes.

Lead is now 116 votes, they'll continue tomorrow.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: May 21, 2017, 04:16:21 pm
I love this page!  https://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/new-electoral-map?platform=hootsuite

It has one of those before/after sliders (I don't know the technical term) so that you can compare the old boundaries with the new ones.  The problem is that the position of the province and the insets are completely different in the two versions, so you can't do an actual comparison.  What genius came up with that?

Also, the populations of the existing districts on page 8 of the report adds to 99,837 but the populations of the proposed districts (on page 21) adds to 100,005.  Sample map 1.1 has populations that add to 99,955, while sample map 3.1 adds to 99,904.

Quick notionials have PC gaining two seats on Liberals, Summerside-Wilcot and Brackley - Hunter River.

NDP gets screwed as their best riding gets a tons of Charlottetown suburbs added on, while losing parts of the core city. Greens are helped, their best areas in Charlotteton are moved in the same riding.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 20, 2017, 11:10:04 pm
According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Again, I will defer to constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins from last weekend who has advised 5 (yes 5) BC L-Gs. If the incumbent party is defeated on the Throne Speech, any other potential gov't between NDP/Greens must be a formal accord, in writing, and must have the "Confidence of the House".

A 43 NDP/Green v. 43 Lib + 1 Ind. Speaker does not have "Confidence of the House". Moreover, the Libs would have a 1-seat majority in the "Committee of the Whole" based upon that scenario. Ergo, that scenario is already D.O.A.

The convention only states "having the support of the House". There is no consensus between experts on what it means and one has to assume the L-G will ask multiple experts.

All in all, the final result will be influenced by why Greens vote it down and the personal opinion of the L-G (who will have to choose if there is disagreements between experts on what "having the support of the House" mean).

In any case, being a rancher, I would assume she would lean Liberal in any case.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round? on: April 24, 2017, 01:00:15 pm
Winners:

Macron: Paris
Le Pen: Aisne
Filion: Sarthe (so, I was wrong), French Polynesia with overseas
Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis (Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon with overseas (WTF))
Hamon: Finistère (Wallis-et-Futuna with overseas)
Dupont-Aignan: Essonne (but Haut-Rhin was surprisingly close)
Lassalle: Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Poutou: Creuse (Guyane with overseas)
Asselineau: Seine-Saint-Denis (Nouvelle-Calédonie with overseas)
Arthaud: Indre (Martinique with overseas)
Cheminade: Haute-Corse (Mayotte with overseas)
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 23, 2017, 04:54:07 pm
Wait, according to

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

97% of the votes are counted and

Le Pen is still ahead of Marcon 23.69% to 22.66%

Am I missing something here ?

No. 97% of towns are in, not 97% of votes.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 19, 2017, 12:04:59 am
Calling for a move to the center after a series of losses is trolling now? I'm old enough to remember a time when it was common sense. The days of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton -- long gone now.

Clinton lost in November and Blair have sub-20 approvals, now.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 19, 2017, 12:00:44 am
A loss is a loss. More proof that the Democrats need to move to the center. This isn't Kenosha. A DLC Democrat like Zell Miller might've had a chance here.

Like we all died from Ebola two years ago?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:52:36 pm
The card with the error has been found. Results will presumable begin again?

Well, they have to reupload all the other cards, now. May take some time.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:51:18 pm
Well, GA is already very gerrymandered. I don't see how you can gerrymander it even more. Probably would be safer to concede a 4th Atlanta area district to Democrats and made a Safe Republican district out of current GA-6 and GA-7, because there is a risk of losing both with current demographic trends.

Overreach can happen, see the Republican gerrymanderer of 2000 in New York State.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:39:25 pm
GA in 2020 should be interesting.

Booker would probably be a great candidate for GA (not that he should be the nominee).
I feel Kamala Harris could do well also...but not as good as Booker so i agree with you there.

I think the slowness of fulton county is another reason all elections should be 100% VBM

I think this is an indicator that younger Dem candidates create the most excitement with base & grassroots (even though there are obvious exceptions like Bernie).

As I've posted before... Every Dem in recent history elected president was younger than 53.5 .... every republican elected president was older than 53.5.

Booker, Castro's, etc (paired with someone like Sherrod Brown as VP)

I guess you could add Gillibrand to that list?

Will be (just) over 53.5 in 2020.

Not with GA 6 and 7 in single digits

We are talking of their ages.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:27:54 pm
GA in 2020 should be interesting.

Booker would probably be a great candidate for GA (not that he should be the nominee).
I feel Kamala Harris could do well also...but not as good as Booker so i agree with you there.

I think the slowness of fulton county is another reason all elections should be 100% VBM

I think this is an indicator that younger Dem candidates create the most excitement with base & grassroots (even though there are obvious exceptions like Bernie).

As I've posted before... Every Dem in recent history elected president was younger than 53.5 .... every republican elected president was older than 53.5.

Booker, Castro's, etc (paired with someone like Sherrod Brown as VP)

I guess you could add Gillibrand to that list?

Will be (just) over 53.5 in 2020.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:26:42 pm
Is there a chance Ossoff calls for a recount if things stay tight? I'm sure he'd like to win outright if he could.

Ossoff can't ask for a recount. GA law for recount margins is based on closeness of candidates, not closeness to certain thresholds.

What if they're trimming votes here and there to make it so that Ossoff is just below 50. /conspiracy

I suspect the person would be quickly out of a job, the majority of Commissionners are Democrats.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:40:03 pm
Remember that Fulton is literally one hour behind the rest of the state in counting any votes. Results cannot be counted or reported until 8 PM in Fulton as far as I know and it has something to do with the City of Atlanta (even though it's not relevant to this particular race).

8PM was almost 3 hours ago, through.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:51:42 pm
Does Fulton plans on counting tonight?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:49:28 pm
Whoa.  Ossoff went UP to 51.0% at 46% of precincts in.

That's normal if precincts reporting are better than 51% Ossoff.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:44:46 pm
His vote also can only go down from the Early voting.

No. Precincts under 50.8% Ossoff lower his %age, Precincts over 50.8% raise it.

The real question is: Do Ossoff leads in votes still to count?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:27:27 pm
I don't think it's possible to call this until we see what Fulton day vote looks like.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 03:49:58 pm
Do we have any turnout reports from Republican areas?

Only report we got from the Republican county is than they asked for voting to be allowed for two more hours, due to "technical issues".
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belgian Politics & Elections on: April 18, 2017, 02:30:15 pm


This map shows MR winning districts in Flanders (around Brussels), how is it possible?

The BVH (Bruxelles-Hal-Vilvolde) constituency covers Brussels region and 35 towns of Flemish Brabant.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round? on: April 18, 2017, 02:25:35 pm
He also comes from the far west from the department, there is no reason for him to have personnal votes coming from the other side of the department.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 17, 2017, 02:54:07 pm
Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?

A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 17, 2017, 11:18:00 am
Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling).
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 17, 2017, 03:23:02 am
Northern Ontario is much more like Quebec in that they have a do whatever you want / be who you are libertarian attitude towards things like sexuality/race, and a lot of other things. They think everyone should be treated equally (read "same"), which may not always be equitable.  I do think Singh's politics align much more with the North than Angus' do.  It is not uncommon to hear people in Timmins say they feel like they don't get much representation because Angus is always worrying about the "natives" (a word still used by Indigenous and white/non indigenous in the north).  On the surface is sounds racist, but it is much more a reflection of the problem with creating these huge ridings, and grouping urban cities with Aboriginal communities.

Well, it's the exact same here in Abitibi or in Northern Quebec.

We feel forgotten by government and are far from big centers, so anybody choosing to move and live here is very welcomed.

Same point with cities being more right-wing than rural areas too (except Rouyn, but it's a student city with significant pockets of poverty).
24  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Hate crimes hoax thread deleated on: April 16, 2017, 01:01:31 am
As a moderator on another forum, I would argue deleting a thread without warning anyone is not very useful.

If it's deleted, it's because some rules were breached. The violator needs to be warned, else, he won't have a clue which rule he violated. Deleting without telling anyone serves no purpose, except for legal reasons (libel, hate speech laws...) where it has to disappear to protect owner from legal proceedings.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round? on: April 16, 2017, 12:30:40 am
For reference, in 2012.

Hollande: Guadeloupe (if excluding overseas, Corrèze (home effect))
Sarkozy: Nouvelle-Calédonie (if excluding overseas, Alpes-Maritimes (Nice))
Le Pen: Vaucluse
Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis
Bayrou: Pyrénées-Atlantiques (home effect)
Joly: Paris
Dupont-Aignan: Essonne (home effect)
Pouton: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (if excluding overseas, Pyrénées-Atlantiques)
Arthaud: Martinique (if excluding overseas, Somme)
Cheminade: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (if excluding overseas, Haut-Rhin)
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