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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada Democratic Caucuses: What do we know? on: Today at 05:09:31 am
It's at 11AM, with special measures for people working on the Strip.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are there so many candidates up for election in NH in either party? on: Today at 05:01:51 am
Ballot access is 1000$ or 100 signatures.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll win NV and SC? on: Today at 04:23:40 am
Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.


No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.



NV Dems website is clear:

Quote
Who?

Any registered Democrat or anyone who will be 18 by Election Day (November 8, 2016) and wants to register as a Democrat on Caucus Day is eligible to participate.

It's called closed because you must register as a Democrat to take part. Don't think Iowa people have to register with the party to take part, there in no formal ID control in fact.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll win NV and SC? on: Today at 04:17:00 am
Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.


No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.



NV Dems website is clear

Quote
Who?

Any registered Democrat or anyone who will be 18 by Election Day (November 8, 2016) and wants to register as a Democrat on Caucus Day is eligible to participate.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders, Clinton Is Still Up In Air on: Today at 02:34:39 am
I support Hillary, but I'm concerned that Nevada's going to a lot closer (or Sanders might even win) than it should be. If she doesn't win by a good margin, then she's going into SC fairly hobbled.

Exactly my point. If this goes all the way to the convention she will be really weakened for the GE.

Was Obama weakened in 2008?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point can we say that hillary clinton is not a good politician? on: Today at 02:26:27 am
No.

If she was, she would be ending her second term right now.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 02:17:13 am
Croydon seems to have an issue. 17 votes for Hillary, 0 for Bernie, and 5 for other.

DD says Sanders got 109 votes there.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders, Clinton Is Still Up In Air on: Today at 02:15:35 am
I don't know how you guys are so confident she wins the nomination. I am losing hope. There are so many problems with this campaign, starting with the speaking fees/transcripts.

Because she's going to crush it in SC and on Super Tuesday. On top of that, she has the overwhelming support of the superdelegates, along with an emergency Obama endorsement just in case things get really dicey.

None of that will help her when Republicans will attack her over those issues, through.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Bloomberg (I) on: Today at 02:07:53 am
No clue, but Bloomberg wins 0 states and polls like 2%.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 02:07:20 am
If you believe the CNN exit polls, moderate and conservative democrats voted for Bernie by a LARGER margin (23pts) than liberal/very liberal democrats (21pts).

Prove my point. Voters don't care about ideology. They care about personality and anti-establishment.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Mormans in Nevada on: Today at 02:05:24 am
I think the Church is officially opposed to Trump.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 02:04:41 am
Then, Sanders should make clear than party loyalty is important and make float the idea of a primary challenge to every Democrat office-holder backing someone else than the official candidate.

Hillary will have no choice, but to follow suit, given the pressure.

1)A guy who isn't a registered Democrat is hardly the ideal person to talk about party loyalty.

2)Nobody will overtly support Bloomberg, they will just sit on their hands. After all, Sanders has raised 0 dollars for state parties and Dem congressional candidates, so it's not like they owe him anything.


I'm pretty sure nobody ever asked him to raise money, through.

And they want people to vote for the winner of Democratic primary. Coattails and straight ticket voting...
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 01:55:51 am
The problem with people who seem to think that Hillary will guarantee a victory for the Democrats in November is that they're viewing this election through 2008-tinted glasses rather than 2016 ones.


It is not the matter of Hillary guaranteeing anything: it is the matter of Sanders endangering it. A Trump presidency should be sufficiently frightening not to risk it.

If Sanders wins, it will also make it much more likely that Bloomberg enters: and, if he enters, that he will take a lot of Dem votes. he will not win, but he can elect Trump or Cruz.

If the primary is long, we will get a candidate AFTER the filling date to run as an independent in most states.

Well, all that means is that a long primary is making Bloomberg much more likely to enter.

Then, Sanders should make clear than party loyalty is important and make float the idea of a primary challenge to every Democrat office-holder backing someone else than the official candidate.

Hillary will have no choice, but to follow suit, given the pressure.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 01:42:37 am
The problem with people who seem to think that Hillary will guarantee a victory for the Democrats in November is that they're viewing this election through 2008-tinted glasses rather than 2016 ones.


It is not the matter of Hillary guaranteeing anything: it is the matter of Sanders endangering it. A Trump presidency should be sufficiently frightening not to risk it.

If Sanders wins, it will also make it much more likely that Bloomberg enters: and, if he enters, that he will take a lot of Dem votes. he will not win, but he can elect Trump or Cruz.

If the primary is long, we will get a candidate AFTER the filling date to run as an independent in most states.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Bedford, NH on: Today at 12:57:26 am
Glorious place!  Looking for a quaint weekend home there now.

Given it didn't voted for a Democrat since 1932, I'm not sure you would be welcome there.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:33:22 am
As for the gloating, enjoy it while you can. I sincerely mean that. Things are gonna get pretty ugly for Bernie soon, so it's nice he could have his moment in the sun.

^EXACTLY!^ See you on Feb. 27 and on Super Tuesday, Berniebots!

You have already wrote off Nevada?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:16:01 am
muh 272 firewall

If you think Trump can carry Virginia or Pennsylvania, you're delusional. Face it: She's guaranteed to win the election if she faces Trump or Cruz.

Polls says otherwise. Trump would beat Clinton in Pennsylvania.

Polls from 2011 also said Romney would beat Obama in PA. 48% is the Republican ceiling in the state. Trump would get crushed in the Philly suburbs and likely lose worse than Corbett and McCain statewide.

Obama wasn't campaigning yet in 2011. Clinton is campaigning since months.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:14:55 am
General election polls don't mean sh*t at this point. Bernie COULD certainly defeat Trump or Cruz (and most likely would), but I know for sure that Hillary WOULD defeat them. Big difference.

Taking states for granted is the easiest way to lose. If Hillary follow your strategy, a Republican WILL be swearing in in 11 months.

That's another advantage of a long primary. She will see which ones of her advisers are incompetent and fire them before the general election.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:07:50 am
muh 272 firewall

If you think Trump can carry Virginia or Pennsylvania, you're delusional. Face it: She's guaranteed to win the election if she faces Trump or Cruz.

Polls says otherwise. Trump would beat Clinton in Pennsylvania.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:06:58 am
The Hillbots in this thread are.... not taking it well, that's for sure.  What Stage are they in at this point?  

Get a life, Berniebot.

Why is it so hard to understand that I don't want my party to nominate an unelectable loon when we are guaranteed to retake the White House for another 8 years with Hillary? Look, the Republican party has become a joke. No matter what happens, Hillary Clinton is guaranteed to win at least 270 electoral votes against Trump and Cruz:



Let's not put states like PA and VA into play by nominating an angry old man who talks about a political revolution that's not going to happen anyway.

Last general election PA polls:

Trump 45, Hillary 43
Rubio 45, Hillary 42

Virginia:
Clinton leads by 17 over Trump, 4 over Cruz, 3 over Rubio
Sanders leads by 22 over Trump, 12 over Cruz, 10 over Rubio

So, what is your point now, Lief?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:01:40 am
Hillary won a 4th town, Windham (yet another Republican stronghold).
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 11:59:51 pm
Quote
-- the former secretary of state lost among women in New Hampshire by eleven points, according to exit polls.

Is this confirmed?

It has to, per logic.

If Hillary tied with women, it means Sanders won men 70-30. Not happening.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 11:48:52 pm
Why did Sanders win by 41% in Durham (UNH), and 51% in Rindge (Franklin Pierce), but only 6% in Hanover (Dartmouth)?

Ivy League is VERY pro-establisment.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 11:19:59 pm
I don't see why Hillary supporters are upset.

She is by far the most likely winner and it will force herself to be a better candidate. Hillary being better is good for the general, no?

Here's my perspective:
Bernie never had a real chance to win the party nomination. He also knows this. You can tell from his speech tonight by him saying that "we need to unite as a party in a few months, to defeat the right wing extremist" But because he made a run for the nomination he could potentially isolate many young voters and potentially many under 45 voters as well. It's just lunacy when Dems could have had a cake walk to the Presidency if we all stayed united, but now it's starting to fray, and within a few months many voters COULD (and i stress COULD) become disinterested and not turn out for Hillary in the GE. This would cause the party to be fractured for no good reason.

2004: Cakewalk for Kerry, he lost.
2008: Long campaign down to the wire, Obama won quite easily.

Long primaries allow to improve candidates and already build networks in states.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 11:15:33 pm
I don't see why Hillary supporters are upset.

She is by far the most likely winner and it will force herself to be a better candidate. Hillary being better is good for the general, no?

It's about angry Berniebots and the media spinning it as if Bernie is the new frontrunner when he clearly isn't.

Like I said earlier, media does that for financial reasons. A longer race = more ads, more things to cover.
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