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May 28, 2015, 09:25:45 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:19:56 pm
Will Tory go in coalition with LD rump caucus or go minority deals with LD and DUP?

Well, to find the answer to that question, we need more data. Will Tories have a majority by themselves? If they are short, by how much?
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 09:39:09 pm
So, what, LDs should end with around 5 seats?
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:37:42 pm
They're saying the Lib Dems aren't going to get their deposit back in many seats. How low do you have to fall for that to happen?

5%
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:13:21 pm
Labour sources say Farage ends up third in South Thanet.

Those are baseless Twitter rumours, as with every count.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:13:12 pm
Tories must have cleaned up Cornwall, and massive UKIP tactical voting in Con-Lab marginals.  Epic failure for pollsters.

Or epic failure by exit pollsters. One of them failed.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:12:34 pm
Not surprising fter the media gave the election to Conservative way before it began, as a thank you gift for lack of action after Leveson inquiry.
57  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are the geographic extremes of the places you have visited? on: May 07, 2015, 04:21:25 am
N: Chisasibi, Northern Quebec
S: Niagara Falls, ON
W: The westernmost point on the highway to Niagara Falls, so probably around Hamilton, ON
E: Gaspé, Quebec.
58  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's going to happen with the Alberta tar sands now? on: May 06, 2015, 11:30:47 pm
Position seems to be than they will support industry, but likely with tighter environmental rules and perhaps a raise in the royalties they give to government.

Pipelines should continue too, except the project "Northern Gateway" to send petroleum to ports of Northern British Columbia, which NDP clearly opposed (but, really, most people thought it wouldn't work anyways, as Natives are fighting through courts and sabotage to block it and British Columbia has unrealistic conditions to let it pass through the province (I think they want like half the profits or something like that, obviously, they just want to block it without saying so)).
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 11:25:51 pm
Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).
Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809
The was a NPD candidate who was elected as MP from a riding in deepest Quebec, who said after her election that she had heard that the riding was a lovely place, and that she hoped to visit soon.  IIRC her French-language abilities did not go much past, "bon jour", but she had a French name.


Ruth Ellen Brosseau. She is now prefectly bilingual, various reports are saying she is quite liked in her riding, she is considered effective in House (she is deputy Agriculture critic) and she was elected by NPD MPs, vice-president of the NDP caucus. It's often shown as a success story.

Really? But she visited Las Vegas and can't speak French. I heard that her constituents lynched her in the streets and elected a statue of Harper as their new MP.

Yeah, NDP gave up back a crash course in French (his family was formely francophone, she had courses when young, but she forgot) , they send Mulcair to get care of the constituency problems for a few weeks until she mastered French back and they said than the accusations she was not speaking French were exagerated by a pro-Bloc radio interviewer.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 08:22:05 pm
Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).
Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809
The was a NPD candidate who was elected as MP from a riding in deepest Quebec, who said after her election that she had heard that the riding was a lovely place, and that she hoped to visit soon.  IIRC her French-language abilities did not go much past, "bon jour", but she had a French name.


Ruth Ellen Brosseau. She is now prefectly bilingual, various reports are saying she is quite liked in her riding, she is considered effective in House (she is deputy Agriculture critic) and she was elected by NPD MPs, vice-president of the NDP caucus. It's often shown as a success story.

Adma: Not surprising, Wildrose seems to have focused on establishing a solid rural foothold instead of trying to win swingy Calgary.
61  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 08:13:43 pm
I did. He wants to get rid of homophobic laws, and his son is mad at him because his dad won't let them personally.  

Read again. He wants to ban cities from passing bans on discrimination on sexual orientation.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 06:31:35 am
A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat Tongue

Wildrose is quite happy, really. Result seems to be quite in line with expectations. Jean wasn't really campaigning to be Premier in the two last weeks, he decided to be quiet and get a solid foothold in rural Alberta instead.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 03:49:08 am
This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

  • Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
  • Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
  • Or did people just want a change?

As I understand it, the recent dip in the oil market a few months back did major harm to Alberta's economy. The Tories attempted to solve this issue with their budget, which had something in it for EVERYONE to hate, including more than 50 different tax hikes. This plus the already surging NDP and Wildrose parties have created an election where nearly everyone has a reason to vote against the PC's and a genuine alternative option to vote for.

Also, the 50 tax hikes were all on people. Corporations had no change in taxes.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 01:53:08 am
WR won in Chestermere-Rocky View.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 01:48:26 am
Chestermere-Rocky View will most likely be WR. They lead by 222 votes with one box left.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 01:31:20 am
What was turnout ?

And why did the NPD gain that much in such a right-wing stronghold ?

58%

Because my brain can't get off the topic of recounts right now, I've been wondering if a recount will also end up happening in Little Bow?  Ian Donovan only lost by 12 votes...

No automatic recount in Alberta unless it's tied, but Ian Donovan or his agent can ask one to a judge. He has 8 days after the official vote addition to do so, recount must begin in the 10 days after the demand (if not rejected).
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 01:18:36 am
Can some Canadian etc. please explain to me in 3-5 short sentences what happened and why ?

I always thought Alberta is the Canadian Utah or Wyoming and now this NDP-surge. It's as if a Green Party governor won the election in UT or WY.

Also, this was my prediction:

My prediction (out of the hat):

38% NDP (46 seats)
26% PC (18 seats)
24% WR (20 seats)
 6% LIB (2 seats)
 4% AP (1 seat)
 2% Others

Turnout: 58%

How did I do and where can someone find results ?

Thx.

NDP 40.6% (53 seats)
Wildrose 24.2% (20 seats)
PC 27.8% (10 seats, but really 9 since Prentice already resigned)
Liberals 4.2% (1 seat)
Alberta Party 2.3% (1 seat)
HuhHuh?: 2 seats (it's an exact tie between PC and NDP in Calgary-Glenmore. There will be a recount by a judge, if still tied, the election will be called unconclusive and a by-election called for the seat. Also, Chestermere-Rocky View has a few boxes of votes to still count and it's too close between PC and WR).

There is already one by-election to call in Calgary-Foothills, to replace resigning Premier, PC leader and MLA Jim Prentice.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:26:54 am
What was the turnout?

57%. Best since 1993 (60%).
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:11:22 am
It's a TIE in Glenmore with all boxes counted. 7015 for both PC and NDP.
Recount?

Recount policies in Alberta are:

There is only an automatic recount if it's tied. In other cases, the candidate or its agent has 8 days to ask a recount.

If there is still a tie after the recount, there is a by-election.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:08:51 am
Peace River is a 160 votes lead for NDP, one box left.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:06:21 am
It's a TIE in Glenmore with all boxes counted. 7015 for both PC and NDP.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:05:15 am
PCs back up in Peace River. Sad

Really? I don't see that.

NVM. Did another riding switch back to them?

EDIT- It's Calgary-Glenmore (Njall's riding?)

Not a real lead. It's tied! 3 boxes left.

2 boxes left, NDP leads by 32 votes.

1 box left, NDP leads by 42.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:04:22 am
PCs back up in Peace River. Sad

Really? I don't see that.

NVM. Did another riding switch back to them?

EDIT- It's Calgary-Glenmore (Njall's riding?)

Not a real lead. It's tied! 3 boxes left.

2 boxes left, NDP leads by 32 votes.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 12:00:27 am
PCs back up in Peace River. Sad

Really? I don't see that.

NVM. Did another riding switch back to them?

EDIT- It's Calgary-Glenmore (Njall's riding?)

Not a real lead. It's tied! 3 boxes left.

Turnout: 57%
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 11:55:07 pm
PCs back up in Peace River. Sad

Really? I don't see that.
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