Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 21, 2014, 03:13:34 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 315
1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: would you make a capable engineer? on: Today at 06:40:29 am
I teach more engineering students than any other type and both my children are pursuing engineering degrees. I have worked closely with engineers on many aspects of experimental research. Many times my own work on experiments has bordered closely on electrical, computer and software engineering. I suspect that I could have succeeded with a career in engineering, had my interests gone that way.

Like angus, I'm curious to see what motivated Walter to post this question.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Would Your State Vote on Secession? on: September 20, 2014, 10:42:27 pm

If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.



It would be quite interesting if the entire state of Illinois was allowed to vote on whether or not to essentially give Chicagoland the boot - haha!

If only the Chicagoland counties were allowed to vote on such a proposal, do you think the numbers in Cook County would be enough to overcome the high margins in the well-to-do suburbs?

In 2012 Cook cast 2.01M votes while the other Chicagoland counties on the map cast 1.37M votes. So if Cook was 60% yes, the rest of the counties would have to vote 65% no to defeat it. If Cook was 65%, it would take 72% no from the rest.

FTR Kankakee is as much a part of Chicagoland as DeKalb. Grundy is usually in the same category as DeKalb and Kankakee, too. All three are part of the exurban "ring around the collar".
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Kris Kobach on: September 20, 2014, 03:49:38 pm
HP, obviously. The problem is that so many states have a partisan elected official in charge of elections. That should be ended in every state ASAP. Elections should NOT be subject to partisan politics in any way.

IL took that function away from the SoS in the 1970 constitution.

Quote
ARTICLE III SUFFRAGE AND ELECTIONS
SECTION  5. BOARD OF ELECTIONS
    A State Board of Elections shall have general supervision
over the administration of the registration and election laws
throughout the State. The General Assembly by law shall
determine the size, manner of selection and compensation of
the Board. No political party shall have a majority of
members of the Board.

The current State BoE has 4 Dems and 4 Pubs. IL state law also provides a mechanism for counties and cities to establish boards of election to replace that function of the elected clerk.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your actual party affiliations on: September 19, 2014, 01:41:38 pm
Democrat, till about 1999
Unaffiliated, 1999 till about 2003
Republican, 2003 - 2004
Unaffiliated 2004 - 2008
Republican, a few months in 2008
Unaffiliated 2008 - 2012
Republican, a few months in 2012
Unaffiliated, 2012 - 2014
Democrat, April 2014 to present (I haven't gotten around to changing it back to unaffiliated with the county registrar, but when I do I'll be Unafilliated till an interesting primary comes along)

I'd be interested in the reasoning behind all these...

It looks like someone who wants to have an impact at the primary. For states that have partisan registration, one must be registered with the party in advance of the primary. Most people won't bother to change it until the next primary comes along and they want to vote in a party primary other than the one they most recently did. Parties use those registration lists to reach out to possible supporters, so unregistering can cut down on that type of call.

IL has open party registration which means that a voter can declare their party intent when they walk up to the primary voting place. The upside is that the voter need not declare an affilation until the day of the vote. The downside is that there is no process to unregister, so for the next two years the party will contact the voter from the primary voting lists. If someone doesn't vote in a primary then IL maintains the last known affiliation on the marked partisan voter lists.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your actual party affiliations on: September 19, 2014, 01:14:54 pm
Democratic | 2010-

Haven't registered to vote in Illinois yet, but will be unaffiliated when I do get around to it.

You don't have a choice. Smiley Party registration is not involved in the registration process here.

That said, make sure you register before early October when the deadlines are. And also make sure to at least vote for a couple Democrats such as Mike Frerichs for Treasurer, even if you don't like Quinn.

I can't vote for any Democrats in good conscience, given that I don't have much of anything  in common with them from an ideological standpoint.

The foundations are the same, but whatever. You might as well not vote, as the deadline for getting on the ballot was the other day and I am pretty sure the only one's who got on were the Dems, Pubs, and Libertarians.

What do you mean? The Democratic Party is a liberal party and I am not a liberal, so it doesn't really make much sense for me to vote for them in any context. There's not a single Democrat I can think of that I would support for any office at this point.

Assuming I get registered to vote in time, I plan on making extensive use of write-ins, and, barring that, just submitting a spoilt ballot.

Nonpartisan voter registration is available in IL through Oct 7, both in person at various government offices and online. From Oct 8 through election day Nov 4 you can register and vote through the grace period process at certain election offices in your county and at your polling place on election day. Depending on your county and whether you vote early you may not have a paper ballot to work with, though there is a process for write-ins on electronic ballots.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Would Your State Vote on Secession? on: September 19, 2014, 06:39:41 am
On the question of secession from he US, IL would be firmly no. However if the question was separation from Cook, the vote would be quite different in many counties.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 10:03:45 pm
Dundee may be YES, but it is the first council to have under 80% turnout. That can't be good for the YES.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 07:46:57 pm
54-46 for no in Clackmannanshire.
No seems to be on track for a big win.

Not a big one. Clackmannanshire was a likely toss-up, so if that result is anything to go by it could be 54-46.

Really? The first page had this has the highest Yes rating on the time release chart. That could be inaccurate, but if you are knowledgeable I'll trust you. It seemed lean Yes at minimum to me.

538 gave Clackmannanshire a lean of SNP+3. That's not big, but added to the result it would forecast a NO at 57% if this vote tracked the 2011 results.

Edit - I see Eric beat me to it while I was typing.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 07:05:12 pm


You forgot Maine from Massachusetts in 1820...


Indeed, I did.  As for those others, I can't say I forgot.  Even more embarrassing, I must admit that I didn't even know about them.

Okay, so it maybe happens much more often that I expected.  How was my estimate that there probably aren't more than a dozen countries in the world born of a modern peaceful secession, O wise one?

By the way, neat the Monkey Shoulder isn't bad either.  The meatier flavors and nutmeg come out a bit more, and the finish is just as smooth.  That said, I had to break from it and opt for Malbec for the time being.  I can't keep going on Scotch from now till midnight.  And that's assuming that this is decided by then.  As close as it is in the pre-election polls, it may go like the US presidential election of 2000, and not be decided till six weeks from now.  Actually, that'd be boss.  Give us lots to talk about anyway.  


I'm at my laptop for the evening now as I finish writing a test. My drink will be Dalwhinnie 15 years old. I don't have much left so I'll rely on some Sam Adams Octoberfest as well.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you wish Pat Quinn were your state's governor? on: September 16, 2014, 11:08:04 pm
Perhaps I am spoiled (looking at all the Pub-staters wanting Quinn), but I wish we had a more progressive Governor. This is Illinois, we shouldn't have a Governor that is moderate on pensions.

That said, I'm obviously voting for him.

We're talking about the pensions the state can't afford still, right?

Actually the state can afford the pensions with only minor adjustments to stabilize the system. IL passed a sweeping law in 2010 for new employees hired after 1/1/11. Each year about 5% of the workforce covered by state pensions is replaced by new employees with such reduced benefits they may actually drop below the federal minimum in the coming years. As such the part of the payment into the system for currently acquired liabilities has been dropping the last few years.

What is crippling the budget is repaying the pension systems for the extensive borrowing from their funds to pay for programs. That accounts for over 3/4 of the pension payment and though it has been an ongoing problem for decades the current debt load can largely be traced to borrowing during the period from 2003 to 2011. Even this aspect can be dealt with through modest restructuring of the payment schedule.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Magellan Strategies (R): IT'S HAPPENING??? on: September 15, 2014, 10:32:17 pm
The problem in the linked article is an inconsistent use of decimals. They cite the difference between the candidates with one decimal point, but the margin of error with no decimal points. That's just poor reporting. The source at Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire gives a more consistent picture.

Headline: CSNH's Latest Poll: Scott Brown leads Senator Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points: 45.9% to 44.3%
Quote
The automated survey of 2,214 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%.

Here they are consistent. This is a large sample and the standard error of the sample is 1.063% and since the sample size (2,214) has four significant figures it is appropriate to keep the same number of figures for the standard error to avoid errors from rounding too early. If they used the standard error based on Brown's percentage the standard error of the sample becomes 1.059%. Either way the 95% margin of error is 1.96 times the standard error or 2.08%. This should be rounded to 2.1% to match the precision of the quoted percentages for the candidates (I'm not sure where they get 2.0%). It is not necessary to round the figures off to the nearest percent, the calculations are perfectly meaningful with one decimal point. Many top scientific papers will quote two significant figures of error.

In this case the extra decimal actually helps to understand the spread. If everything was rounded to the nearest percent the top line would read Brown 46% to Shaheen 44% with a 2% MoE. That makes it look like Brown is ahead at the limits of the MoE or about two times the standard error. Using the given decimal points shows Brown up by 1.6% with a 2.1% MoE. The MoE on the difference is actually somewhat larger that the MoE on the sample, but that doesn't change the conclusion that the difference is well inside the MoE and its 95% confidence level. That makes it look much more like the statistical tie that it is.

Bottom line: Decimals in polls are not necessarily a sign of bad polling or bad statistics.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What type of climate do you live in? on: September 15, 2014, 08:42:36 pm
Humid continental Dfa for me. With 45 votes cast it's interesting that we have 3 E's but no B's yet. I expect we just need some votes from the US west.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Were there any big cities in the South pre-1860? on: September 15, 2014, 12:05:49 am
The article on Louisville lists its 1850 population as 43,194. That would make it the second largest city in the South, if it counts as a Southern city (I'd consider it just as Midwestern as Cincinnati, both now and then.)

Louisville was a strong pro-union city and helped keep KY out of the Confederacy. If Louisville counts as a southern city because of its slave status, then St Louis is a better example of a Midwestern river city in a slave state. In 1860 its population was 160,773 much bigger than Louisville at 68,032 and almost the equal of New Orleans.

If you want evidence that Louisville was a strong pro-Union city, you need to provide better evidence than a New York Times article from January 1861.  Northern overestimates of the strength of Unionist sentiment throughout the South was a contributing cause to the eventual civil war.  It led the North to think that the threats of Southern secession were mere gasconade and even after secession occurred to think the policy was unpopular among the non-slaveowning class of the South and thus would quickly collapse with but a little effort on the part of the North.  While it was essentially impossible that war could have been avoided by January 1861, a sober realization of the strength of Southern sentiment might have gotten the North prepared for the major war to come sooner and thus led to its end sooner.

While I agree that the North underestimated Southern sentiment, I'll stand by my statement about Louisville largely backing the Union. Louisville voted in favor of Bell and the position of Union+Slavery in 1860. After secession river merchants were the most likely group to back the Confederates, but the blue collar meat packers and local professionals leaned Union and were the larger group. The Speed brothers in Jefferson county were arguably Lincoln's strongest allies in KY and actively organized in Louisville for Lincoln at the run up to the war.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Were there any big cities in the South pre-1860? on: September 14, 2014, 11:52:48 pm
The article on Louisville lists its 1850 population as 43,194. That would make it the second largest city in the South, if it counts as a Southern city (I'd consider it just as Midwestern as Cincinnati, both now and then.)

Louisville was a strong pro-union city and helped keep KY out of the Confederacy. If Louisville counts as a southern city because of its slave status, then St Louis is a better example of a Midwestern river city in a slave state. In 1860 its population was 160,773 much bigger than Louisville at 68,032 and almost the equal of New Orleans.

If you want evidence that Louisville was a strong pro-Union city, you need to provide better evidence than a New York Times article from January 1861.  Northern overestimates of the strength of Unionist sentiment throughout the South was a contributing cause to the eventual civil war.  It led the North to think that the threats of Southern secession were mere gasconade and even after secession occurred to think the policy was unpopular among the non-slaveowning class of the South and thus would quickly collapse with but a little effort on the part of the North.  While it was essentially impossible that war could have been avoided by January 1861, a sober realization of the strength of Southern sentiment might have gotten the North prepared for the major war to come sooner and thus led to its end sooner.

While I agree that the North underestimated Southern sentiment, I'll stand by my statement about Louisville largely backing the Union. Louisville voted in favor of Bell and the Union+Slavery in 1860. After secession river merchants were the most likely group to back the Confederates, but the blue collar meat packers and local professionals leaned Union and were the larger group. The Speed brothers in Jefferson county were arguably Lincoln's strongest allies in KY and actively organized in Louisville for Lincoln at the run up to the war.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Were there any big cities in the South pre-1860? on: September 14, 2014, 05:35:34 pm
The article on Louisville lists its 1850 population as 43,194. That would make it the second largest city in the South, if it counts as a Southern city (I'd consider it just as Midwestern as Cincinnati, both now and then.)

Louisville was a strong pro-union city and helped keep KY out of the Confederacy. If Louisville counts as a southern city because of its slave status, then St Louis is a better example of a Midwestern river city in a slave state. In 1860 its population was 160,773 much bigger than Louisville at 68,032 and almost the equal of New Orleans.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: If you could move the Florida capital to another city...? on: September 14, 2014, 06:42:29 am
Orlando. In fact have the capitol building within Walt Disney World.

Does this mean people who work at the capitol have to pay to go to work?

No, but they would have to refer to themselves as cast members. Smiley
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Were there any big cities in the South pre-1860? on: September 14, 2014, 06:40:06 am
By comparison Chicago had only been founded in 1833 with about 200 people, but had 112K people by 1860.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 538: Important Distinction between "STEM" and "TEM" in Salary on: September 13, 2014, 10:21:07 pm
     Having graduated with a Bachelor's in Physics, I've quickly noticed that the only career path it actually qualifies you for is high school teacher (or grad school, but I'm getting off of this train). Awesome ROI on an academic path that has subjected me to four years of depression, loneliness, anxiety, and sleep deprivation.

The key to a physics BA or BS, for those who aren't interested in a PhD or teaching is to go for a Masters. They can take as little as one year if done as part of a combined BS/MS but rarely more than three years. The masters need not even be in physics. Engineering and Business schools like physics degrees because they already know the student can handle complex problem solving. Law schools and Med schools like them, too. Even if it is a MS in physics I've seen plenty of graduates get excellent jobs in STEM areas like technical project management, data mining, and quality testing.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead on: September 13, 2014, 10:36:44 am
Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

And added.

Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

Quote
The poll, conducted Sept. 3 through Friday by APC Research Inc., featured interviews on landlines and cellphones with 800 registered voters.

...

Ah, ok.

When I went to the Tribune page, it said "This is premium content and can only be viewed from within the US".

I'm from Austria and looked for another source and this one said 800 "voters". And in Sept. you would think they'd poll likely voters, not RV ... Tongue

I'm a subscriber, so if you ever have questions about Trib content I can let you know.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead on: September 13, 2014, 09:10:59 am
Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

And added.

Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

Quote
The poll, conducted Sept. 3 through Friday by APC Research Inc., featured interviews on landlines and cellphones with 800 registered voters.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead on: September 13, 2014, 09:08:37 am
There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that its an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.



Sorry bro. Looks like your boss is here to stay.

I'll wait for the crosstabs before I draw any conclusions from this.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead on: September 13, 2014, 08:44:51 am
There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that it's an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off more in Cook than downstate in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Plan to split California into 6 states advances on: September 13, 2014, 05:45:19 am
So more than a third of their signatures were fake? LOL

More likely they were a combination of unregistered and mis-registered voters. There was a petition drive earlier this year to put an amendment for independent redistricting on the IL ballot. Over 500K signatures were submitted, and 300K were needed. A random check of 5% of the signatures showed that only 45% were valid, which meant that the petition would end up short if a full count was done. The group later withdrew from the legal fight to put it on the ballot.

A breakdown of the invalid signatures looked like this:
Quote
The state board used a computer program to choose 25,000 petition entries at random out of the 500,000 or so entries turned in by the remap reform group. Board employees then examined the entries and struck 13,807 as invalid, for a failure rate of about 55 percent.

Of those, 7,535 entries (55 percent of the total rejected) were from people who were not registered to vote, according to Board of Elections Director Rupert Borgsmiller. Another 4,565 (33 percent) were signers who werenít registered to vote at the address shown on the petition.

...

The reality is that just 937 petition entries (7 percent of the total rejected) were tossed because the signatures didnít match up to voter registration files. Another 721 (5 percent) were tossed because the Boardís staff examiners couldnít read the signatures and/or the address to figure out who the person actually was.

If CA has rules about signatures like IL, it's not surprising that a third were invalid. There's a reason that experts recommend collecting two to three times the number of signatures required. A lot of people don't know if they are registered to vote and if they are what address is their voting address, especially for those who have moved since the last time they voted.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to call yourself rich? on: September 12, 2014, 11:18:34 pm
I'd define it in terms of stock, not flow.  I don't buy into this "above $300K per year" or anything like that as in idea of rich.  Rich implies independent.  Even attorneys, surgeons, and engineers aren't my idea of rich, unless they were already rich and are just working for actualization of the self, or because they think they can contribute to society.  There are of course rich people who work--George W. Bush is rich, even though he worked as a Governor and President; Mitt Romney is rich, etc.--but generally even the very poorest of the rich have enough capital to comfortably support themselves and their families until the youngest of them dies, independent of any work they do.


Wouldn't that independence then translate into an outflow of cash instead of a throughput of cash from income? Either way one can estimate it in term of a flow.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: PM Series: Question 19 on: September 12, 2014, 06:35:40 pm
Actually, the Internet was invented by the United States government, but please, don't let the facts get in the way of your diatribe.

The internet was built by capitalist swines with a profit motive. You can rationalize your usage however you like. Same goes for all of the other post-industrial capitalist indulgences you like.

In a rare twist I must agree with TNF. The internet was initially built by federal funds either directly to agencies or more frequently to grants to research universities and defense contractors. As a college student in the 70's who had a work contract at our computer center I can attest that there was virtually no presence by private business though there were bulletin boards like the Atlas (but without the nice maps Smiley ). For most of the first two decades the internet grew out of government largesse.

It was only in the late 1980's that there came to be significant private sector involvement in both the hardware and service providers. That happened after the DoD decided to give up control of the net. Even then there wasn't much money to be made since the connections were poor and the interface quite limited. That only changed after 1992 when the World Wide Web was introduced and supplanted the nascent service provide interfaces (Source, Compuserve, AOL, etc) due to its vastly superior open architecture user interface. But even then the web was not designed for any commercial purpose but instead was a product of US and European national laboratories to facilitate easier high-volume data communication and was wholly funded by the government.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 315


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines