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September 25, 2016, 07:15:58 am
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which Airport? DC area on: Today at 07:13:20 am
I've used all three and they each have pluses and minuses. Overall I've found BWI the best by a hair with Reagan a close second. I usually reserve Dulles for transfers.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: September 24, 2016, 09:06:02 pm
Is it so different from 1964? Goldwater wasn't considered vulgar or a con man, but people thought he'd start World War III.

So did many, including some in the media, in 1980 with Reagan. He even picked up the nickname "the mad bomber" by some of his detractors.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of this telescope on: September 24, 2016, 01:38:11 pm
The opinion depends on what your primary uses will be. Are you more interested in planets or deep sky objects? Are you planning on doing a lot of astrophotography or just visual observation? Do you expect to move it much to go to different locations?
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Game: Invent a name for US regions. on: September 23, 2016, 10:01:35 pm
Nobody has successfully done this as described in the OP.

I was just going to say the same thing. One person is supposed to draw a map and the next person names it and then names the regions. So, perhaps we can start again. Here's a map.

5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Steady Staten on: September 23, 2016, 08:56:28 pm
The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.

Do you think that's really true though?  McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s.  It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.

The loss of the suburban tax base is the unspoken cause of much of the impasse in IL. Kendall's growth rate is one tenth of what it was in the last decade. McHenry lost about 600 people from 2010 to 2015. The collars are where the tax base lives, without its growth the state cannot sustain the growth of its schools, roads, and social safety net.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Never wrong pundit" Allan Lichtman predicts Clinton win. on: September 23, 2016, 09:19:33 am
Wow, I never realized this guy was such a show boater.  His criteria is so vague you can put yourself on either side of it an most of his "keys".  He just wants to hedge his bets and make his sterling record, which was broken in 2000 look somewhat clean.

The model may have problems but 2000 was not one of them. When he developed the model in the 1980's he clearly said this was only to predict the popular vote winner since 1860. He used 1876 and 1888 as examples where his model would have called the popular vote winner, not the EC winner.
7  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should laws be passed without intent to enforce them? on: September 23, 2016, 09:03:40 am
Many laws are enforceable, but due to limited resources can't be aggressively enforced. There's a grey area due to this that may make it seem that the laws are not being enforced.

To use an example, consider a municipal noise ordinance. Suppose the law says that if you are creating sound in excess of 60 dB at the property line you are subject to a fine. A person sees the police drive by a loud party and do nothing, so they ask why does the city have a noise ordinance if it is not enforced?

This is probably a case of selective enforcement due to procedure. It is a waste of police to have them continuously checking sound levels throughout the city when there are more serious threats that require active policing. So the police will wait until a neighbor complains and then check the situation for a violation. Even when there is a complaint the police would have the discretion to issue a warning and not a ticket.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Never wrong pundit" Allan Lichtman predicts Clinton win. on: September 23, 2016, 08:49:55 am
Lichtman moves the goalposts again...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-is-going-to-win-beat-hillary-clinton-predictions-polls-al-a7325716.html

He seems to be following opinion now, not predicting it.

He was actually stuck following opinion earlier, as I posted before. His system clearly has predicted a Trump win for months now, but Lichtman just couldn't accept that. He has now committed on foreign policy success against the Dems. Even so, he's still hedging a little in his comments. He still won't credit Bernie's primary performance, so that way if Johnson stays below 5% and Clinton wins he can claim victory.

So basically he's fudging his model into the direction of what he expects to happen. Key 2 is actually true by his standard (Sanders won over a third of delegates) but he's finding excuses otherwise because he doesn't think Trump can win.

Both key 2 and key 4 are false for the incumbent by Lichtman's traditional standards. That would make six keys against Clinton and point to a Trump popular vote win (he doesn't predict EC wins).

Can't find the link, but about six months ago Lichtman was arguing that the only ambiguous key was 'major foreign policy success'. He was unsure how major the deal with Iran was going to be. If that had been False, he would have been forced to predict a Trump victory (at the time, he seemed quite sure Key 2 counted as False). Obviously he figured predicting a Trump win, in the face of all other evidence, would open him up to humiliation.

I agree with many of the above comments, the '13 Keys' model is ridiculously subjective and suffers from the same flaw as many fundamentals-based models: just because you can find a set of factors common to all past elections does not mean the same factors will be valid for all future elections. Those familiar with the xkcd 'Electoral Precedent' cartoon will already know this...

He also had the contest key as ambiguous then. He was fudging his traditional standards in that article to say that if Bernie was supportive at the convention his delegate total wouldn't count against the Dems holding the WH.

At that time he didn't see any traction for Johnson, so he had the third party key as True for Clinton. I don't see how he could make that call without some serious fudging of that key, too.

As noted he was ambiguous about the foreign policy success. In the article he even said that the best strategy for Clinton was to have Obama sell the Iran deal to the public at large. Clearly that hasn't happened, so if he were consistent he should be calling that key False for Clinton raising the False total to 7.

Here was his interview a year ago. In that one he thought the Climate Change agreement would turn the foreign policy success key. By May of this year he had discarded Climate Change as the vehicle and moved to Iran.

The real difference you can see is that he was toying with adding a new key. This one is for a challenging party fracture. In this election it would turn True, and if Johnson is interpreted as a challenger fracture instead of a true third party then Hillary gets 8 keys True even if contest and foreign policy success are ruled False.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2000 Bush and Algore : Why Al Gore has refused to check the votes again ? on: September 23, 2016, 08:16:50 am
In 2001 a sample of about 175K FL ballots were recounted by researchers at the U of Chicago sponsored by a coalition of media outlets. The researchers considered a number of different ways to count questionable ballots. Depending on the counting standard applied either candidate could have prevailed by about 100 votes. Gore didn't need to check the votes again, the race was for all intents and purposes a statistical tie. SCOTUS became the tie breaker, little different than drawing lots as candidates would in a strict numerical tie.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Trump's election to lose" on: September 23, 2016, 08:02:21 am
The data is not polling, but it is still worth noting IMO.

Polls reflect a snapshot of the electorate as it reacts to the candidates and the events around them. Part of that reaction is to media mentions of the candidates - broadcast, cable, print, and online. Anyone tracking media mentions of candidates a year ago as a guide to the outcome would have put money on Trump to win the nomination. It was an accurate leading indicator of where polls would go, and eventually how the primary would turn out.

Correlations between online occurrences of a candidate and the election itself is a similar measure. Like media mentions a year ago these correlations can show what the electorate will be reacting to in advance of the polls. That makes it a potential leading indicator.

I claim no knowledge of how they count "signals" for the candidates and the election, so I can't say how much weight to put on their correlations. I would say that it would be silly to put no weight on these correlations. They are based on real data that influences the election.
11  General Politics / Economics / Re: Opinion of Universal Basic Income on: September 23, 2016, 07:41:47 am
To Gustaf's post, if the entire US federal government shut down and used all of its revenue to create a UBI it wouldn't be much. $3.25 trillion divided by 319 million people is $10,188/year. That corresponds to a full-time wage of about $5.00/hour, so that is consistent with Gustaf's claim of starvation wages.

By comparison the maximum social security benefit at age 65 is $29,424/year almost three times as much. In other words the US would have to triple its tax income to provide a UBI equal to social security and it would still be shut down and provide no services. Tripling the rates wouldn't work since the top bracket is already 39.6% and that would result in tax rates greater than 100%. So arguably this matches Gustaf's other claim that the alternative would bankrupt the budget and be unsustainable even with higher taxes.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Steady Staten on: September 23, 2016, 06:53:29 am
The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Post the Introduction of Your Most Recent Paper on: September 22, 2016, 04:04:52 pm
My most recent as a coauthor was submitted Aug 2016 to Physical Review D:

Measurement of the direct CP violating charge asymmetry in B±→μ±νμD0 decays

Quote
Direct CP violation (CPV) in the semileptonic decay B+ → µ+νµD0 does not occur in the standard model (SM). Charge conjugate states are assumed in this paper. Any CPV in this decay would indicate the existence of non-SM physics. The anomalously large CP-violating effects in the like-sign dimuon asymmetry measured by the D0 Collaboration [1] could be explained by the presence of direct CPV in semileptonic decays. This article presents the first measurement of the direct CP-violating charge asymmetry using the full Run II integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb−1 of proton-antiproton collisions collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Car thread on: September 22, 2016, 03:49:33 pm
2011 Ford Fusion Hybrid - silver w/ black interior
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature: The Wrath of Khan on: September 22, 2016, 11:53:22 am
I can't help but hear the melody in my head.
16  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: September 22, 2016, 10:25:42 am
The user wasn't banned, it was the IP address he was using that was banned.  Same thing happened to me once when I was posting from the wifi at LAX airport; clearly somebody had been using that same wifi when they were banned.

That's how I interpreted Gustaf's post, anyway.

I had the same thought, but cMac sent me a screenshot confirming that it is his account, and not just his IP, that has been banned.

Would really appreciate a confirmation with regard to whether using the same proxy server as known spammers is typically (or has ever previously) served as grounds for banning someone who appeared to be a promising and valuable contributor to the forum.

I understand that it's not practical or advisable to simply mass-ban a gigantic number of these IPs as a prophylactic measure, but I can't understand what purpose this serves. Did the moderators believe that there was an intolerable risk of this poster suddenly posting hundreds of advertisements for penis pumps, or something?

But did he say, why he used a proxy server?

People have plenty of reasons for using proxies and there is no reason to assume malfeasance without other cause.

I share Averroes' concern.  Having a "questionable" public IP should not be grounds alone for banning if a new poster would not otherwise be subject to this sort of scrutiny.

My interactions with this poster were cordial; certainly he was an improvement over the general discourse in the 2016 board.  If we are to ban posters for using public WiFi or proxy servers it is imperative that we at least judge them on their contributions first, no?

Could we please get an answer on A) what is the official policy with regard to proxy servers, B) whether cMac was banned, and C) if so, why?

It's a bit frustrating to have a question left unanswered or partially answered days after two people have asked it multiple times, while another question is answered within hours. (If you charitably choose to describe Torie's barely coherent word salad of quasi-legalese an answer, at least.)

Can anyone answer this, or will I need to ask again in another couple of days?

To be clear, I wasn't involved in the decision and wasn't even aware of it until I searched for it on the Mod Board after seeing your post here. So I'm not the best person to answer your questions (I'm not very internet savvy so I don't trust my own judgment when it comes to assessing this sort of thing).

He was banned, I'm sorry that wasn't clear from my response. I think using proxy servers have been used as sufficient grounds to be banned in the past but for the reasons in my above paragraph I can't say I'm sure about it.

As I said before, I appreciate that you are the only moderator who is even bothering to attempt answering, and I certainly can't blame you for not knowing when there are clearly severe internal communication problems. Can you forward my questions to someone who can answer them? Nym, Dave, TPTB, Klamm, God, or whomever.

cMac36 was banned for appearing to be a sock. There was an ip match to at least three other banned accounts. The use of proxies was just one factor, and not the major one from what I can tell.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: September 21, 2016, 11:26:16 pm
Airports (99)

Muon, did you fly to Bedford just to catch back up to me?! Wink

No, but I took advantage of an opportunity to visit Hanscom AFB. There was a rare open house of the MIT research facility there. I only expected to see the main labs, but it turned out the open house included specially refitted aircraft on base for use in research.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What congressional districts/equivalents have you been in in 2016? on: September 21, 2016, 11:19:44 pm
Updated for my trip to Boston.

CO-1,2,3,4,5,6,7
CT-1,2,3,5
IL-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
IN-1,2,3
IA-1,2,3,4
KS-1,2,3
MA-1,2,3,4,5,6
MI-3,4,5,6,7,8,10,13
MO-6
NE-1,3
NH-1,2
NY-18,21,22,24,25,26,27
OH-4,5,7,9,11,13,16
PA-3,5,10,11,17
UT-3
VT-AL
WI-1,4,5,6

Total: 44 83

On the way back I passed through ON.

Canada (13)
ON: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Brant, Burlington, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, St Catharines, Sarnia-Lambton
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Post maps of where you've been on: September 21, 2016, 10:45:56 pm
My trip out east changes my state map for VT, and brings my county total to 1556.



Red for residences. Dark blue for overnight stay. Light blue for intentional destinations. Green for drive through (including meal stops).


Here's the state level view.



90% (resided): IL, IA, MA, MN, NE, NY, TX
80% (6 or more visits): CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, ME, MD, MI, MO, NH, NJ, OH, PA, RI, TN, VA, WI, WV
70% (5 visits): NC, SD
60% (4 visits): CA, AL, OK, UT, VT, WY
50% (3 visits): AZ, ID, MS, MT, ND, WA
40% (2 visits): AR, NV, NM, SC
30% (1 visit): LA, OR
not yet visited: AK, HI
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Fastest growing areas of the US by partisan lean on: September 19, 2016, 07:19:29 am
Nice maps, cinyc. Thanks!
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: September 19, 2016, 04:08:24 am
Here's my list (I'll add more if I think of them):

Airports (99)

International (16)
Winnipeg, Canada
Goose Bay, Canada
Mazatlan, Mexico
Rio de Janiero, Brazil
Sao Paolo, Brazil
Florianopolis, Brazil
London Heathrow, UK
Manchester, UK
Glasgow, UK
Paris CDG, France
Lyon, France
Geneva, Switzerland
Zurich, Switzerland
Frankfurt, Germany
Munich, Germany
Moscow, USSR

Domestic West (18)
Everrett (Paine), WA
Seattle, WA
Spokane, WA
Boise, ID
Missoula, MT
Kalispell (Glacier), MT
Salt Lake City, UT
Los Angeles LAX, CA
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Tucson, AZ
Las Vegas, NV
Albuquerque, NM
Denver (International), CO
Denver (Stapleton), CO
Aspen, CO
Gypsum, CO

Domestic South (22)
Dallas DFW, TX
Dallas Love, TX
Houston IAH, TX
San Antonio, TX
New Orleans, LA
Gulfport, MS
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Covington, KY
Birmingham, AL
Atlanta, GA
Jacksonville, FL
Orlando, FL
Ft  Lauderdale, FL
Miami-Dade, FL
Tampa, FL
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Blacksburg, VA
Newport News, VA
Sterling/Washington IAD, VA
Arlington/Washington DCA, VA

Domestic East (19)
Baltimore/Washington BWI, MD
Salisbury, MD
Pittsburgh, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Scranton, PA
Newark, NJ
New York JFK, NY
New York LGA, NY
Islip, NY
Newburgh, NY
Syracuse, NY
Ithaca, NY
Providence, RI
Hartford, CT
Boston, MA
Worcester, MA
Bedford, MA
Manchester, NH
Augusta, ME

Domestic North (24)
Cleveland, OH
Columbus, OH
Dayton, OH
Detroit, MI
Kalamazoo, MI
South Bend, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Bloomington, IN
Chicago MDW, IL
Chicago ORD, IL
West Chicago, IL
Rockford, IL
Peoria, IL
Springfield, IL
St Louis, MO
Kansas City, MO
Des Moines, IA
Dubuque, IA
Omaha, NE
Lincoln, NE
Minneapolis, MN
St Paul, MN
Milwaukee, WI
Williston, ND
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What is your singular favourite song? on: September 18, 2016, 07:09:39 am
It's pretty much impossible to have a favourite song that lasts for more than a month or so right?  My first thought was, well, what song have I listened to the most in my life on purpose?  I have no freaking clue.  It could be one of hundreds of songs.  Probably something by Aerosmith, like Last Child or Back in the Saddle, but neither of those would be my favorite song.  So, seems to me it would need to be the most talented of my top several bands (The Who), at their prime (so something off of Tommy, Quadrophenia or Who's Next) that showcases the writing and the playing and is fun to listen to or sing.  Won't Get Fooled Again or Behind Blue Eyes is the likely answer.  At least this month.

Behind Blue Eyes is my favorite song to sing karaoke in public.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Trump Cracks the Friewal on: September 17, 2016, 07:59:27 pm
The advantage for the Dems in this decade is that in a generic two-party election where the vote is split equally the Dems would be expected to win with 272 EV based on the Cook PVIs for the states (VA is rated tossup by PVI). The freiwal assumes that the Dems get at least as many votes as the Pubs. That is not a certainty.

Well just to note, I wasn't necessarily suggesting our advantage = OC's freiwall, but rather that we have more states leaning closer to us than Republicans, and it's easier for us to get to 270 even if we dip below 50%. If a state is D+1 before the election, that doesn't always mean it will vote D+1 in that election, no? Otherwise PVIs would never change. Some emerging Democratic states are shifting towards us at a noticeable rate even between presidential elections. I see enough states favorable to Democrats in one way or another that Republicans seem to have an increasingly difficult time winning anything but a small (<290-300) electoral college majority. Even Bush's 2.46% win only netted him 286 electoral votes, and while things have changed since then, it has hardly gotten better (or significantly better) for Republicans.

Touching on TNVol's popular vote advantage idea - If that's the case, then it still means an overall Democratic advantage. If Republicans can't cobble together a PV win, or a comfortable PV win, then they become more and more disadvantaged. I'm finding it hard to see how Republicans can win decently in the popular vote without cratering Democratic turnout. Republicans have not really been bringing in nearly as many new voters for a long time now, and our voters, being younger than theirs and more diverse, turn out en masse every 4 years as opposed to 2. So if a 'good day' for Republicans means a 1.5% - 2.5% PV win, and a good EC win for them is something like 2004, then they still risk the EC.

Given that, until Republicans can start winning back the youth vote, if Democrats keep turnout from going to abysmal levels then I still see an overall advantage. I'm not sure going entirely by PVI on this for the aforementioned reason(s) is the best way to measure this, or is it?


I would frame the PV problem the other way. How do the Dems maintain Obama-levels of turnout without his aspirational positive message?

Negative messages tend to keep people home, that's why they are used. Youth voting is particularly elastic and easily turned off. Look at the weak turnout in 1988 (50.3% of VAP) or 1996 (48.1% of VAP) compared to 2012 (53.6% of VAP). A 5% drop off in turnout nationally will disproportionately impact Dems. Without 2008-12 type turnout the PV majority for Dems is much less certain.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should calling a moderator "dumbfock" be a bannable offense? on: September 17, 2016, 06:18:19 pm
I believe that was related to the second ban, not the original one. But I wasn't a mod during the original set of incidents, just a poster.

Severely off-topic, but have you ever gotten into a heated argument on this forum? I just can't see it.

But more importantly: Do you own a corncob/briar smoking pipe? I don't think I can go another day without knowing this.

I don't smoke, but I do enjoy deep discussions in the lounge over a glass of fine wine, wearing my tweed jacket. Smiley
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence refuses to be called VP because word "vice" is deplorable on: September 17, 2016, 02:10:28 pm
That has to be satire

The author, Chris Lamb, describes himself as a satirist on his HuffPo bio. The same essay also has Pence talk about a Republican Bible as different from The Bible, which sounds like satire to me. I'm not aware of a Thursday press conference by Pence.
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