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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 20, 2014, 09:59:16 pm
It would be nice if the tail end of this thread were spliced on to the August thread of the same name and then this one locked so all the comments were in one place.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative on: August 20, 2014, 08:52:00 pm
As has been pointed out before, Maryland would look very much like a Southern state if it weren't for Montgomery and Howard counties. In general the Washington metro area (certainly the part in Maryland) is far more Democratic than the Baltimore metro area.

It is a Southern state.   Obviously having the national capital region is going to make it an outlier.  And even in the suburbs of Washington - PG County has more in common with suburban Atlanta than with anything in the Northeast.

We've had this debate many times. Historically MD was southern, and many residents still use that historical reference. If you look at measures such as membership rates in non-black evangelical churches or listeners to country music stations, MD doesn't look very southern anymore.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which electoral districts (CDs or equivelant) have you been to in 2014? on: August 20, 2014, 08:05:27 am
A wedding, a conference, and a beer with BRTD


GA-1,7,8,9,10,12,14
FL-3,4,5,6,8,9,14,18,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27
IL-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
IN-8
IA-1,4
KY-1
MA-2,3,4,5,7,8
MI-13
MN-1,2,4,5,6
NC-11
TN-3,4,5,6,7
WI-1,2,3,5,6,7

Total: 65 69

4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Don Pardo dead at 96 on: August 19, 2014, 11:23:42 am
I still remember him best as the announcer for Jeopardy with Art Fleming when I was a growing up.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / BRTD met muon2 today. on: August 18, 2014, 09:17:46 pm
Outside a local pub in Minneapolis. That's two meetups for BRTD this week!

6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Prediction: Will Wyoming pass Vermont in population by 2020? on: August 18, 2014, 08:21:08 am
At current growth rates using the 2010-2013 estimates WY projects to have 629K in 2020 and VT projects to have 633K. That's close enough to be within the margin of error and slight shifts in the mean growth rate can easily flip the results. It's within the difference between the census used for apportionment and the census used for redistricting which excludes overseas military from the state. That was about 4K for each state.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did your mother keep or change her name when she got married? on: August 17, 2014, 11:58:41 pm
Option 2, though I am under the impression that this forum has a disproportionate number of people having mothers who kept their name.

I've always been under the impression that this forum has a disproportionate number of people having mothers who moved the position of their original surname to become their middle name.

Those are the only two options in my family.  Like, if your name is Joan Alice Taylor and you marry Steven Walter Smith, you can still be Joan Alice Taylor or you can become Joan Alice Smith.  Those are pretty much your two options in my family.  Some choose to keep their original surname and some choose to change it.  My mother changed her name.  My wife kept her original surname.  My sister changed her surname in one of her marriages but kept it in another marriage.  None of them moved their original surname to the middle-name position.  That just isn't done in my family.

What always struck me about this forum is that there seems to be a large number who make their original surname their middle name after they're married.  Like, if your name is Joan Alice Taylor and you marry Steven Walter Smith, then you become Joan Taylor Smith.  As far as I know, no one in my family has ever done that.  They either stick with their original last name or they co-opt the husband's surname.  Nevertheless, it seems fairly common based not only on this forum but from what I've seen in general society.  I have always found the concept of co-opting the husband's last name and moving your original surname to the middle position very strange.  In fact, I'd never even heard of it till I was a teenager, and my mother explained to me that it was somewhat common in society.  Since I've been posting here, it seems to me that it is the norm on this forum, even though to my knowledge no one in my extended family has ever done that.  They either keep their last name original or they change it. 


My situation is somewhat different. My wife's mother was given no middle name, so making her given last name into a middle name was more a matter of adding the new name to the end of a short list. My wife was given her mother's maiden name as her middle name and her father's last name. She kept that name.

My children were given a unique first name but their mother's middle name and my last name. If my daughter chooses to maintain that tradition then the same middle name would exist through four generations through female ancestors. In principle the pattern could be maintained through female descendents much as a patrilineal last name is through male descendents.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where We Come From, State By State on: August 17, 2014, 11:49:49 pm
Interesting to see that, at least according to this map, in migration to Indiana from Illinois is overstated by the ILGOP.

In what way is it overstated? IL is the number one source of immigrants to IN and the fraction of IN residents born in IL has grown from 5% to 6% over the last decade. At the same time the fraction of residents from all other Midwestern states in IL is at 8% and that is a decline over the last decade. The natural conclusion is that immigration from IL to IN is growing over the last decade while the reverse direction is probably declining (assuming the proportions within the Midwest stayed relatively uniform).

It makes sense that Indiana receives the greatest # of immigrants from Illinois of all Midwestern states, as it is the most populous Midwestern state and it borders it as well.

Now, if you look back, the percentage of Hoosiers that were born in Illinois has increased steadily over the decades. It is not a recent surge since the Democrats locked this state down nor is the increase particularly large whatsoever.

That's not what the graph shows. From 1940 to 2000 the percentage of residents of IN from IL held at 5%. Compared to the changes from the other large source, KY, that proportion was very stable. But, by 2012 the percentage of residents of IN from IL moved up to 6%. That's a 20% increase after a long period of stability. I'm not going to make any claims about causality, but that is a significant uptick given the large population samples involved.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 17, 2014, 08:11:32 am
Here's version 2 of my draft plan. In addition to the population I have included the PVI of each district in square brackets, with positive values for D PVIs and negative numbers for R PVIs.

TN (2)
   Great Valley (TN) 2342K [-20.6]
   Cumberland and Mississippi (TN) 4004K [-11.8]

Tennessee statutes define the Grand Divisions.  Sequatchie is in the Middle Grand Division.

East Tennessee 2328K
Middle&West Tennessee 4019K

History

Tennessee gained its 2nd district in 1810, and has had two ever since.  After reaching 5th in 1840 and 1850, Tennessee dropped to 10th in 1860, and as low as 19th in 1920.  Since then it has been in the lower teens.

Kentucky and Tennessee were for a long time quite parallel in population.  After Tennessee caught up with Kentucky in 1830, they were within 10% of each other every census through 1940.  In 1930, Tennessee had 2000 more persons.   In 2010, it now has 2 million more people, as over the last 80 years, Tennessee has added 3.7 million, while Kentucky has added 1.7 million.

The divisions in statute you reference are for the judicial divisions. Even there Sequatchie has shifted over time. I put it in the east consistent with the geographic definition that includes counties in the drainage of the upper reach of the Tennessee, separated from the Cumberland Valley.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Why is the lieutenant governor roster so diverse? on: August 16, 2014, 11:05:22 pm
Through 2010 IL separately nominated Gov and LG though they are elected on a single partisan ticket. The IL Constitution gives no authority to the LG other than to replace the Gov should the office be vacant and to assume any duties assigned to the office by statute. It hasn't been unusual for IL LG's to leave office midterm due to boredom and the prospects of a more interesting job.

After the debacle of Scott Cohen getting the Dem LG nomination and then finding out that he had some serious negatives in the past, the legislature utilized the provision in the constitution that allowed the nominations to be by ticket and that exists for 2014. Ironically there had been a similar debacle in 1986 when a LaRouche follower won the Dem LG nod forcing Stevenson to run as an independent on the Solidarity ticket leaving the Dem ticket with an LG but no Gov candidate. Surprisingly that didn't lead to ticket nominations back then.

On that topic, I couldn't find any information on the Republican LG nominee in Illinois.

The candidate seems to be a councilwoman from the city of Wheaton, population approximately 54,000.

According to polls she will has a very good chance of being a heartbeat away from the governorship in a big state.

Here's her bio from the campaign website. She a Latina, the daughter of Ecuadorian and Cuban parents. She's an attorney who worked for the AG's office and in private practice. As you note she was elected to the Wheaton city council. She's been a personal friend of mine for a number of years, FWIW.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did your mother keep or change her name when she got married? on: August 16, 2014, 10:30:33 pm
My mother changed her name, but that was in 1957. My wife kept hers when we married in 1988. My children have my wife's middle name and my last name. My wife's middle name was her mother's family name so it created a parallel matrilineal series to the patrilineal last name.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where We Come From, State By State on: August 16, 2014, 10:23:53 pm
Interesting to see that, at least according to this map, in migration to Indiana from Illinois is overstated by the ILGOP.

In what way is it overstated? IL is the number one source of immigrants to IN and the fraction of IN residents born in IL has grown from 5% to 6% over the last decade. At the same time the fraction of residents from all other Midwestern states in IL is at 8% and that is a decline over the last decade. The natural conclusion is that immigration from IL to IN is growing over the last decade while the reverse direction is probably declining (assuming the proportions within the Midwest stayed relatively uniform).
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Why is the lieutenant governor roster so diverse? on: August 16, 2014, 12:21:48 pm
Through 2010 IL separately nominated Gov and LG though they are elected on a single partisan ticket. The IL Constitution gives no authority to the LG other than to replace the Gov should the office be vacant and to assume any duties assigned to the office by statute. It hasn't been unusual for IL LG's to leave office midterm due to boredom and the prospects of a more interesting job.

After the debacle of Scott Cohen getting the Dem LG nomination and then finding out that he had some serious negatives in the past, the legislature utilized the provision in the constitution that allowed the nominations to be by ticket and that exists for 2014. Ironically there had been a similar debacle in 1986 when a LaRouche follower won the Dem LG nod forcing Stevenson to run as an independent on the Solidarity ticket leaving the Dem ticket with an LG but no Gov candidate. Surprisingly that didn't lead to ticket nominations back then.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Maps. All the maps. on: August 15, 2014, 08:41:19 pm
I'd be happy to help fill in the four 'no data' counties for NV by going up there and asking people myself, except for the fact that I could drive around each county from town to town and not encounter a single other sentient human being.  Of course, at no point would I wonder to myself why I drove several hours into the wilderness to ask strangers what they call carbonated beverages, because

Though I would be curious to know what a plurality of people in Churchill county call it other than pop, soda or coke.  'Pennybubbles', or 'kiddyliquor', I imagine.  I've no idea.

I've purchased coffee and doughnuts in Fallon in Churchill county, and I think my son ordered a Coke, but that's because he wanted that brand. The server didn't use any generic term that I recall, so I'm at a loss to help out there. The menu might have said soft drinks, but it was three years ago.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 08:05:30 pm
Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot, it's not like 100% of those votes would go to Rauner; the Green candidate got ~10% in 2006 and ~3% in 2010. Plus Illinois will have same-day registration for the first time this year so turn-out could be higher than expected.

They may not go to Rauner, but they are mostly based on protest votes against Quinn. It was in protest against Blago that Whitney got 10% as a Green, in large part because Blago's ads had successfully decimated Topinka's image early in the campaign. That hasn't happened this year against Rauner. If the Greens get 3% or more its coming almost entirely from left-leaning voters protesting Quinn.

The same day registration will help Quinn, but will that do more than compensate from the high turnout for downballot Cook races that are missing this year. If it only replaces those votes it still leaves Quinn short of a win. Rauner has created a ground game that Brady lacked so he will be turning out extra voters as well. I'm just saying that Quinn has a much tougher comeback than he had 4 years ago.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: If you could move the Florida capital to another city...? on: August 15, 2014, 07:40:23 pm
Gainesville.

Weren't we doing a series on alternate state capitals under the individual politis board? Whatever happened to that?

Yes. It was just this spring and here's the FL thread. I was hoping to see some more data-driven responses here than in the IP thread. So far that's not happening, and it's mostly just personal opinions. Other similar threads that lack data in the form of stats or maps or tables have been moved to the IP board. I'm monitoring this one for now.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best College Town In The Big Ten (Pt. 1) on: August 15, 2014, 12:51:47 pm
I've had the opportunity as an academic to visit all the colleges on this list, so I'm not looking at them from a student's eye. For me the "college town" atmosphere is lost when the setting is too urban, or when the city also serves as the state capital. They can be attractive communities, but its a different vibe than the quintessential college town.

For me a college town has a certain sense of isolation to create a unique atmosphere. I like to see an eclectic mix of one-of-a-kind shops and eateries mixed in with the chains the students are used to from their home towns. There should be some off-campus arts, but the campus stays the focus of the cultural activity. I've found both Bloomington and Champaign to be particularly attractive in this sense.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: PM Series: Question 11 on: August 15, 2014, 12:31:23 pm
I don't know if the wording of the question was intentional, but there is a difference between subsidizing health insurance and subsidizing health care. Medicaid/Medicare are subsidized health care where the government pays the health care providers directly. The ACA includes a provision for subsidized insurance, whereby the government helps those outside of Medicaid pay for insurance and the insurance company then pays the health care providers. They may seem like the same thing in terms of end results, but there really are quite substantial differences from the cost and benefit management side.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK - where's the special election come from? on: August 15, 2014, 07:49:27 am
TTS, technically in the US all regular elections fill seats before they are vacant. Normally when an official announces that they will not run again, the election takes place while the previous office holder is in place, and the successor only take the office at a later preset date. By creating a mechanism that allows for a special election to be handled by binding resignation, a process is created that acts in all respects like a normal election when an incumbent has indicated their intent to retire.

The benefit is to the public; they are able to act on a midterm retirement in the same manner as an end-of-term retirement. The US public is used to elections falling only on specific days of the year and the turnout reflects this ingrained sense of election days. Since public awareness and turnout are best on the regularly scheduled election day, having a midterm resignation filled as if it were the end of the term provides for an election with the most public participation.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 07:32:14 am
Amazing how when I looked back at all the polls from the 2010 race, Brady didn't trail in a single poll from August on and still lost.  That race was highly polled too.  Brady must have lost the late-deciders (the "come homers") 90/10 to blow that race.

It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL

Most of the polls for the race failed to include all the candidates on the ballot. Because of that Brady was getting all the anti-Quinn vote in those polls. In reality almost 4% went to Cohen and that largely came at the expense of Brady. When there is a well-funded third party candidate in a close race, it's essential to include their name in the poll. Otherwise all one is measuring is the incumbent's strength against the field.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 06:55:51 am
Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

Dominating Chicago is not enough. Mark Kirk only got 19.47% of the vote in Chicago in 2010 to 76.72% for Alexi Giannoulias. Though Quinn only got 75.43% in Chicago in 2010, Cohen's vote held Brady to 17.41%. That gave him a 400K vote advantage there, but Giannoulias with a 394K advantage in Chicago lost to Kirk.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Some miscellaneous Nevada maps and charts and things on: August 14, 2014, 11:08:08 pm
Here's a miscellaneous NV map I've not previously posted. It shows the highway connections between counties. Specifically it shows a county connection when there is a path between two county seats that can be made on regularly maintained state or federal highways that doesn't cross into any other county. The yellow lines show connections to significant populations in a county that are disconnected from the county seat. In this case one can't go from Tonopah to Pahrump and stay in Nye county, or go from Goldfield to Dyer in Esmeralda county without taking an unnumbered dirt road through Silverpeak.



Note, the lines are not intended to indicate where the county seats or actual connections are.
23  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: Is National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Constitutional for electing POTUS? on: August 14, 2014, 10:13:42 pm
Yes, it is probably constitutional.  Each state can decide how its electoral votes are allocated.  If Maine and Nebraska can allocate electoral votes by congressional district, without any problems, then states should be able to allocate electoral votes based on popular vote, without incident.

I suspect there are limits on how a state might allocate its EVs. Could a state allocate its EVs based on the value of the Dow Jones average on election day? I doubt it. Sticking to elections, could a state allocate its EV to the results in its most populous county? That clearly violates one man one vote. Could a state allocate it based on another arbitrary state? That seems like a violation, too, since it is equivalent to letting that other state have its votes count twice.

So, let me assume that the states have a recognized compact. That could potentially allow the states to aggregate their votes and electors to act as a single state. However, if they use results from states not in the compact, isn't that akin to using votes from some arbitrary state to make their allocation? If so, that also becomes a potential violation of one man one vote, since again the states not in the compact effectively elect electors twice.

To me the only clearly constitutional compact is one that allocates the electors from the compact to winner of the vote within the compact. However, even if the compact has 270 EV, the result could be that the compact winner is not the national popular vote winner. That defeats the whole purpose of the NPVIC.
24  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: What happens if the candidates get the EXACT same number of votes in a state? on: August 14, 2014, 09:49:16 pm
They have various methods - usually coin tosses or pulling names out of a hat.

Correct. State laws specify the method used to break a tie, or sometimes just that they must be resolved by lot. In these cases it is a random procedure to give each candidate in a tie an equal chance of success. Some states require that a tie be resolved by a runoff election.

It may be statistically remote to see an exact tie for presidential electors in a state, however the state laws apply to all races. It isn't so rare to see a tie in a local race that might only involve a few hundred voters.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will this hideous polarization end? on: August 14, 2014, 07:13:29 pm
Is it really that polarized?  Even a GOP bastion like Alabama has a solid 40% of the population voting for the Democrat.  The "polarization" is simply a result of our use of the Electoral College.  The two parties aren't even that different if you look at things on a global scale.  Are we polarizaed in Presidential politics in 2014 as compared to, say, 1960?  Well yea, sure, but that was when the two candidates didn't even really disagree about anything. 

Does anyone have one of those nifty purple maps?  I can definitely argue for a rural/urban divide in America, but the idea that the absence of "swing states" would be indicitive of extreme polarization is not a valid one. 

I agree with much of this. If you want polarization consider the US in the decades after Reconstruction. There were very few swing areas, so it came down to turnout in states like NY or third party candidates to split the vote to swing the election to the Dems.

Today that same dynamic is in play between the urban and rural areas. Suburban areas can either align more with rural or urban interests based on the age of the suburb and region. Swing states emerge when the the urban-leaning and rural-leaning populations are roughly equal in voting strength. Then it can come down to turnout for the respective groups in a particular election to create a swing.

Regional political polarization is a feature of many countries as seen in this thread. So if the US is "hideous" in that respect, I'm not sure how the OP would characterize these other countries.
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