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February 20, 2017, 05:24:53 pm
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The best Science-Fiction universe/story? on: Today at 03:12:38 pm
Star Wars and Star Trek win hands down.  We could base our technological advancements on the models set in these stories.  We already do with Minority Report, after all.  

Also, I'd like the United States develop a new space force, in particular these X-wing fighter planes:



 



That's part of why I mentioned Asimov's robot stories tied in with Foundation. So much of how we now perceive the interactions of humans and androids is rooted in Asimov's stories. The Star Wars droids are no exception.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: Today at 02:50:23 pm
Neutral districts can also say a lot about trends. Since they aren't gerrymandered to pack or crack parties they can show how the natural political leanings are shifting. For example, consider the 6 whole county ADs in northern WI. PVIs reflect a districts political leanings compared to the national presidential average, and I'll look at the last 3 cycles (2008, 2012, 2016) and negative numbers are Pub. Instead of averaging two cycles, I'll keep each cycle separate.



AD 85 (Merinette): PVI (-0.5, -4.1, -18.4)
AD 86 (Rhinelander): PVI (0.0, -4.7, -13.2)
AD 87 (Merrill): PVI (1.9, -1.8, -7.4)

AD 88 (Ashland): PVI (4.5, 2.6, -4.8 )
AD 89 (Superior): PVI (9.1, 8.9, -1.9)
AD 90 (Osceola): PVI (-4.1, -6.2, -15.7)

Notice that the Pub swing was already underway from 2008 to 2012, with shifts of up to almost -5% in AD 86. But the shift for 2016 is really astounding with PVI jumps of -14% in AD 85, and almost -11% in the tradition Dem bastion of Superior. It defies common wisdom that AD 89 would support a Pub candidate, yet Trump won by 458 votes out of over 30K cast. This is one of the clearest indications I've seen of the effect of the Dem loss of the WWC and why Trump won WI.


This is true, but I think it's easy to forget just how big and in many ways unprecedented Obama's win was in Wisconsin in 2008. He won counties that Democrats almost never win. 2004 to 2016 would be a better comparison.

Actually the changes are just as striking if one goes back to 2004. The Rhinelander AD I drew was R+2.4 in 2004, and only shifted to even in 2008, but then goes to R+4.7 and R+13.2 in 2012 and 2016. The Superior AD was actually D+12.8 in 2004 and lost some ground in 2008, before careening to R+1.9 in 2016. Both districts (one heavy D and one lean R) shifted Pub by double digits over that period. The beauty of the PVI is that it accounts for the effects of a national wave like Obama in 2008 so one can see the underlying local trends.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: Today at 02:35:52 pm
I have decided to eliminate the single-district counties with a deviation of between 5% and 10% (Sauk, Waupaca, and Chippewa). Rather than redo the entire map, I made as few changes as possible - as if I was responding to a court decision.

Sauk (1.079) is added to the region comprised of Dane, Green, Iowa, and Lafayette. The average error for that group improves from -1.6% to -0.7%.

(7) Dane, Sauk, Green, Iowa, and Lafayette 10.922 (11), -0.7% 8 districts in Dane, 1 district in Sauk, 1 in Green and Dane(part) (65% in Green), and 1 in Iowa, Lafayette, Sauk(part), and Dane (part)(8/10 in Iowa, Lafayette, and Sauk). Three surplus fragments, with two surplus fragments in Dane.

Waupaca (0.912) is added to Outagamie, recognizing a small surplus in Outagamie. The average error improves from +2.5% to -0.3%.

(12) Outagamie and Waupaca, 3.988 (4) -0.3%. Three districts in Outagamie, with the fourth district comprised of Waupaca (90% plus of district) and a small surplus fragment of Outagamie. One surplus fragment.

Chippewa (1.087) is added to a region comprised of Lincoln, Taylor, Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price 1.929(2) -3.5%. The region is then split, with a northern region consisting of Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price; and southern region comprised of Chippewa, Lincoln, and Taylor. The northern district will be slightly overpopulated, but a split of a small county is eliminated.

(17) Chippewa, Lincoln, and Taylor, 1.947 (2) -2.6%. One district in Chippewa, one district in Lincoln and Taylor, with a small portion of Chippewa (about 1/9 of the district). One surplus fragment.

(27) Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price 1.069(2) +6.9%. One district, no county splits Slightly excessive deviation.

We both have 27 whole county regions, so in principle we should match in chop count. Will you be able to maintain a 10% range given the deviation of (27)? I had to work at mine with only the 5.2% deviation of West Allis. It's grouped with West Milwaukee at -4.7% to get the range to 9.884%. The tricky part was watching some of the lower pop regions to make sure none went beyond the -4.7% deviation. 6.9% forces a floor of -3.1%.
The overall range is irrelevant, and pandering to innumerate judges.

I will defend my plan based on a meaningful statistic such as standard deviation, and justify the few outliers as avoiding unnecessary division of political subdivisions.


Then why change from your original model using single counties with deviations up to 10%? How does that differ in complying with range requirements? In any case, this exercise arose in response to a court decision that WI had to redraw its districts. A plan that doesn't meet the basic court requirements isn't going to be as useful in showing the court what types of alternatives exist to replace the current plan.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Have you gotten snow yet this season? on: Today at 10:39:21 am
We have a record high today of 67 at O'Hare smashing the old record of 60 from 1880. It's been so mild for the last two months, that many people I've talked to have forgotten how severe the first half of Dec was. We also can joke about the groundhog claiming 6 more weeks of winter. Cheesy

What an incredibly beautiful Saturday it is today in Chicago. One of those unseasonably warm February days that you could just sit/walk around outside all day. Currently 63 and not a cloud in the sky.

And it reached 67 surpassing the old record of 62 from 1981. Then again it was a beautiful day to test drive some cars after spending a day at the Chicago Auto Show last Sat.

The NWS service officially put the high on 2/18 at 70.

Yesterday reached 69 beating 65 from 1930. The pleasant temps led to a nice hike in the Morton Arboretum. The witch hazel was in bloom, but there were still some thin ice spots on large shaded ponds. We will see today if we can make it 4 record days in a row.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: Today at 09:08:52 am
Neutral districts can also say a lot about trends. Since they aren't gerrymandered to pack or crack parties they can show how the natural political leanings are shifting. For example, consider the 6 whole county ADs in northern WI. PVIs reflect a districts political leanings compared to the national presidential average, and I'll look at the last 3 cycles (2008, 2012, 2016) and negative numbers are Pub. Instead of averaging two cycles, I'll keep each cycle separate.



AD 85 (Merinette): PVI (-0.5, -4.1, -18.4)
AD 86 (Rhinelander): PVI (0.0, -4.7, -13.2)
AD 87 (Merrill): PVI (1.9, -1.8, -7.4)

AD 88 (Ashland): PVI (4.5, 2.6, -4.8 )
AD 89 (Superior): PVI (9.1, 8.9, -1.9)
AD 90 (Osceola): PVI (-4.1, -6.2, -15.7)

Notice that the Pub swing was already underway from 2008 to 2012, with shifts of up to almost -5% in AD 86. But the shift for 2016 is really astounding with PVI jumps of -14% in AD 85, and almost -11% in the tradition Dem bastion of Superior. It defies common wisdom that AD 89 would support a Pub candidate, yet Trump won by 458 votes out of over 30K cast. This is one of the clearest indications I've seen of the effect of the Dem loss of the WWC and why Trump won WI.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: Today at 07:45:03 am
I have decided to eliminate the single-district counties with a deviation of between 5% and 10% (Sauk, Waupaca, and Chippewa). Rather than redo the entire map, I made as few changes as possible - as if I was responding to a court decision.

Sauk (1.079) is added to the region comprised of Dane, Green, Iowa, and Lafayette. The average error for that group improves from -1.6% to -0.7%.

(7) Dane, Sauk, Green, Iowa, and Lafayette 10.922 (11), -0.7% 8 districts in Dane, 1 district in Sauk, 1 in Green and Dane(part) (65% in Green), and 1 in Iowa, Lafayette, Sauk(part), and Dane (part)(8/10 in Iowa, Lafayette, and Sauk). Three surplus fragments, with two surplus fragments in Dane.

Waupaca (0.912) is added to Outagamie, recognizing a small surplus in Outagamie. The average error improves from +2.5% to -0.3%.

(12) Outagamie and Waupaca, 3.988 (4) -0.3%. Three districts in Outagamie, with the fourth district comprised of Waupaca (90% plus of district) and a small surplus fragment of Outagamie. One surplus fragment.

Chippewa (1.087) is added to a region comprised of Lincoln, Taylor, Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price 1.929(2) -3.5%. The region is then split, with a northern region consisting of Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price; and southern region comprised of Chippewa, Lincoln, and Taylor. The northern district will be slightly overpopulated, but a split of a small county is eliminated.

(17) Chippewa, Lincoln, and Taylor, 1.947 (2) -2.6%. One district in Chippewa, one district in Lincoln and Taylor, with a small portion of Chippewa (about 1/9 of the district). One surplus fragment.

(27) Sawyer, Washburn, Rusk, and Price 1.069(2) +6.9%. One district, no county splits Slightly excessive deviation.

We both have 27 whole county regions, so in principle we should match in chop count. Will you be able to maintain a 10% range given the deviation of (27)? I had to work at mine with only the 5.2% deviation of West Allis. It's grouped with West Milwaukee at -4.7% to get the range to 9.884%. The tricky part was watching some of the lower pop regions to make sure none went beyond the -4.7% deviation. 6.9% forces a floor of -3.1%.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 19, 2017, 11:21:14 pm
Do you have a map showing the Janesville split?

Janesville city is completely whole (AD 10) except for ward 5 on DRA which is the far northern end of the city. That corresponds essentially to wards 19, 20, 21, 22 and 26 on the current ward map.

Thanks, but it was jimrtex's map where I couldn't tell where the split was in Janesville. Once I'm done with his map, I'll go through your's to come up with the 2016 numbers.

Great. I would do it myself, but I can't do the chopped cities since Atlas doesn't have ward results posted yet. I am especially interested in the vote totals so that I can calculate the wasted votes and efficiency gap as I'll discuss in an upcoming post.
8  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Statement regarding hate speech on: February 19, 2017, 11:12:49 pm
How does this affect policies for how to handle different thoughts on whether or not gender is different from sex and whether or not there are more than two genders?  Because some people don't like my stances on those questions.

This is actually a good question that deserves an answer.

If ER's earnest political belief is that transsexualism is a mental illness (A deplorable and bigoted belief that is nevertheless fairly mainstream), can he be punished for expressing those views? How far is he allowed to go? I doubt he will banned for simply stating his viewpoint, but what if he wants to only refer to a trans female person exclusively as "He/Him"? Or use the word "tranny"?

I'd agree that this is a good question, especially if it is confined just to ER's statement about the difference between sex and gender. A while ago I posted the definition I was raised on, as framed in my 1979 college graduation copy of Webster's Deluxe Unabridged Dictionary (2nd Ed). I use this since dictionaries capture the usage of words at the time of their publication.

Quote
gender, n.
1. in grammar, (a) the classification by which nouns and pronouns (and often accompanied modifiers) are grouped and inflected, or changed in form, in relation to sex or their lack of it ...
2. sex. [Colloq.]
Quote
sex n.
1. either of the two divisions of organisms distinguished as male or female; males or females collectively.
2. the character of being male or female; all of the things which distinguish a male from a female.
...

At that time for people of my age gender meant sex and it was strictly binary unless it was lacking (as neuter or asexual). Of course words change meaning over time, but not everyone gets the change at the same time. I think I understand the modern distinction, but for a large part of the population the newer meanings that differentiate the two words just haven't sunk in to their sense of language. More and more mainstream publications are starting to give the words separate meanings, but I still sometimes see a parenthetical explanation to help the reader understand that gender is being used in its newer sense which implies that they think readers may not think the words are different.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 19, 2017, 10:19:51 pm
Do you have a map showing the Janesville split?

Janesville city is completely whole (AD 10) except for ward 5 on DRA which is the far northern end of the city. That corresponds essentially to wards 19, 20, 21, 22 and 26 on the current ward map.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 19, 2017, 07:45:19 pm
Chops themselves are subjective and aren't used by many mapping regulations in the country.   Communities of interests and avoiding partisan interests (like vote sink districts in your MI-9) are a better alternative.   County/City lines are very often outdated and serve very little real purpose.

I strongly disagree. Many states that do have mapping regulations do pay attention to chops and the need to minimize them. Recent redistricting reforms in FL and OH very much care about keeping counties and cities intact. The overthrow of the VA and FL plans rested in part on the court's concern that there were too many chops into counties to create the minority district. Public testimony in states without such regulations in 2011 included a great deal of comment about preserving counties and cities. For most people outside of the largest cities the county and city make up their main basis of identifying their community of interest.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 19, 2017, 04:00:51 pm
Here's some preliminary analysis of my AD plan. The distribution 35D-12d-13e-16r-23R gives a 47 to 39 advantage to the Dems in the PVI of the districts which is an 8 seat margin. The PVI of the state was D+2.4 (3.4, 1.5). Studies predict a 4% swing in seat margin for every 1% change in state PVI, so the expected margin for the Dems would be 10 seats. Thus the plan has a SKEW of 2 to the Pubs for the 99 seats. Obama won 74 of these districts in 2008 and 57 in 2012, so it seems very close to fair in a partisan sense.

The plan has 41/99 districts that are lean or even which is better than the 30% that is expected. The POLARIZATION is 144. 17 seats shifted from 2008 to 2012 even though Obama's statewide 2-party vote only dropped from 57.1% to 53.5%, which is twice the number expected. That points to a reasonably competitive plan that would be responsive to changes in voter preference.

The above analysis is based on both 2008 and 2012 data. One interesting result was the PVI shift between the two years. The two point swing R isn't so unusual, but what is more telling is that Milwaukee and Madison swung D, while the rest of that state moved further R than the statewide number suggests. That increased polarization shows up as I look at the score based on each year separately. It goes from 137 in 2008 to 156 in 2012. With that concentration, the turnout in Milwaukee and Madison becomes more critical for the Dems. It seems to presage the results of 2016 as the outstate areas continued to polarize towards the Pubs.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 19, 2017, 03:30:01 pm
Here's the rest of northern WI. Of the cities not previously mentioned only Eau Claire is chopped and the chop follows the Chippewa and Eau Claire rivers, which makes vote calculations uniform from 2008 to 2012. All of Wausaw and Schofield is in AD 83, which may not be clear from the map detail.



AD 82 (Shawano): deviation +163; PVI R+4 (-1.0, -6.8 )
AD 83 (Wausaw): deviation +2324; PVI D+1 (2.9, -1.9)
AD 84 (Weston): deviation +1193; PVI R+5 (-1.3, -7.9)

AD 85 (Merinette): deviation -1968; PVI R+2 (-0.5, -4.1)
AD 86 (Rhinelander): deviation -1469; PVI R+2 (0.0, -4.7)
AD 87 (Merrill): deviation +2015; PVI D+0 (1.9, -1.8 )

AD 88 (Ashland): deviation +1073; PVI D+4 (4.5, 2.6)
AD 89 (Superior): deviation +2626; PVI D+9 (9.1, 8.9)
AD 90 (Osceola): deviation +2218; PVI R+5 (-4.1, -6.2)

AD 91 (Chippewa Falls): deviation +2664; PVI R+1 (0.2, -2.7)
AD 92 (Eau Claire - north): deviation -780; PVI D+7 (8.1, 5.9)
AD 93 (Eau Claire - south): deviation +1690; PVI D+4 (5.8, 2.9)

AD 94 (Medford): deviation -2065; PVI R+5 (-1.4, -8.7)
AD 95 (Black River Falls): deviation -1255; PVI D+6 (8.1, 4.3)
AD 96 (River Falls): deviation -2293; PVI R+0 (1.4, -1.8 )

AD 97 (Rice Lake): deviation +1458; PVI R+1 (-0.0, -1.6)
AD 98 (Menomonee): deviation +293; PVI R+2 (0.5, -4.8 )
AD 99 (Hudson): deviation -11; PVI R+7 (-5.8, -8.1)

In this group there are 3 D, 2 d, 5 e, 7 r, 1 R.

For the whole plan there are 35 solid D, 12 lean d, 13 even, 16 lean r, and 23 solid R.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 19, 2017, 02:44:09 pm
Here's the Green Bay area. Green Bay city must be chopped at the AD level, but the plan was drawn to keep Green Bay city in one SD. The wards were grouped to make the closest comparison between 2008 and 2012. Appleton was not chopped in this plan, but it did annex extra wards after 2008. Those wards were left off the city total votes and kept in AD 73.



AD 73 (Grand Chute): deviation +2714; PVI R+7 (-4.0, -9.8 )
AD 74 (Kaukauna): deviation -313; PVI D+2 (5.3, -1.3)
AD 75 (Appleton): deviation +1942; PVI D+4 (5.5, 3.0)

AD 76 (Sturgeon Bay): deviation -2582; PVI D+1 (3.5, -1.4)
AD 77 (Green Bay - east): deviation -2549; PVI D+5 (6.2, 3.5)
AD 78 (Green Bay - west): deviation -2702; PVI D+6 (7.1, 5.6)

AD 79 (Suamico): deviation +1723; PVI R+4 (-1.2, -7.1)
AD 80 (Howard): deviation +1272; PVI R+4 (-2.6, -6.3)
AD 81 (De Pere): deviation -1548; PVI R+5 (-2.1, -7.4)

In this group there are 1 solid D, 3 lean D, 1 even, 3 lean R, and 1 solid R ADs
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Have you gotten snow yet this season? on: February 18, 2017, 09:40:29 pm
What an incredibly beautiful Saturday it is today in Chicago. One of those unseasonably warm February days that you could just sit/walk around outside all day. Currently 63 and not a cloud in the sky.

And it reached 67 surpassing the old record of 62 from 1981. Then again it was a beautiful day to test drive some cars after spending a day at the Chicago Auto Show last Sat.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 18, 2017, 02:26:39 pm
Here's the Lake Winnebago-Sheboygan area. A macrochop occurs at ten times the maximum deviation, which is 50% of an AD. With only a simple chop in Calumet, but a macrochop in Sheboygan, it lowers erosity to have 2 ADs nested in Sheboygan county matching what jimrtex suggested earlier. All of Calumet stays in the same SD so there is no cover penalty at that level.

The only chopped muni is Oshkosh which must be chopped at the AD level due to population. The 2008 wards were picked to be close to the 2012 wards for better comparison of votes.



AD 64 (Menasha): deviation -2181; PVI R+2 (0.1, -4.0)
AD 65 (Neenah): deviation -1656; PVI D+3 (3.8, 2.3)
AD 66 (Oshkosh): deviation -1501; PVI D+2 (2.7, 1.2)

AD 67 (Ripon): deviation +801; PVI R+13 (-10.9, -14.4)
AD 68 (Fond du Lac): deviation -512; PVI R+4 (-3.4, -3.7)
AD 69 (Harrison): deviation +1387; PVI R+6 (-3.8, -8.5)

AD 70 (Sheboygan): deviation +1182; PVI D+4 (4.9, 3.7)
AD 71 (Plymouth): deviation -563; PVI R+14 (-11.9, -16.2)
AD 72 (Manitowoc): deviation +594; PVI D+1 (2.2, -0.5)

In this group there are 3 lean D, 1 even, 2 lean R, and 3 solid R ADs
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of each generation on: February 17, 2017, 06:11:15 pm
I was born in very late 1983 and I'm sure as hell not Gen X. I say if you were born during Reagan's presidency you're a millennial.

You are in good company. As I posted above, 1981 begins the Millennials according to Pew. They agree that everyone born during the Reagan years is a millenial.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Have you gotten snow yet this season? on: February 17, 2017, 05:48:34 pm
We have a record high today of 67 at O'Hare smashing the old record of 60 from 1880. It's been so mild for the last two months, that many people I've talked to have forgotten how severe the first half of Dec was. We also can joke about the groundhog claiming 6 more weeks of winter. Cheesy
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 17, 2017, 04:04:10 pm
Here are the ADs for the lower WI river centered around the Dells. Columbia county gets 1 AD and La Crosse gets two, with one consisting of just La Crosse city and Campbell town. In this grouping there is only one county chop for SDs.



AD 52 (Platteville): deviation +2043; PVI D+7 (8.5, 5.2)
AD 53 (Richland Center): deviation +2345; PVI D+7 (8.3, 6.7)
AD 54 (Baraboo): deviation +1207; PVI D+7 (7.5, 7.1)

AD 55 (Tomah): deviation +1577; PVI R+1 (1.3, -2.3)
AD 56 (Onalaska): deviation +1721; PVI D+1 (1.9, 0.2)
AD 57 (La Crosse): deviation -1971; PVI D+14 (14.7, 14.0)

AD 58 (Marshfield): deviation +1646; PVI D+2 (2.3, 2.3)
AD 59 (Wisconsin Rapids): deviation +1610; PVI R+1 (3.7, -5.3)
AD 60 (Stevens Point): deviation +2371; PVI D+9 (11.6, 6.4)

AD 61 (Portage): deviation -611; PVI D+4 (4.0, 4.9)
AD 62 (Wautoma): deviation -1805; PVI R+7 (-5.3, -8.3)
AD 63 (Waupaca): deviation -1722; PVI R+4 (-2.4, -5.9)

In this region there are 5 solid D, 2 lean D (2 to 5), 3 even (0 or 1), 1 lean R, 1 solid R.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Paste the last thing you copied. on: February 17, 2017, 03:33:49 pm
x^2-x-12

A factorable polynomial. Very nice.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / MOVED: Why do many people vote against their economic interests? on: February 17, 2017, 03:31:40 pm
This topic has been moved to Political Debate.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=258990.0
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of each generation on: February 17, 2017, 03:24:08 pm
Is anybody able to explain why GenX gets so few years (less than half as many as the "greatest generation") compared to the other generations?

That's a good question.  Maybe because you guys are kind of lumped into that awkward cultural stage between Boomers and Millennials?

Like, you're old enough to be considered a Boomer, but not old enough to take responsibility for every goddamn short-term-thinking Boomer fckup that's been done.

It's also because 1976-77 is an unusually early date for the Gen-X/Millennial transition. Experts are not in complete agreement as to the correct date, but the Pew Research Center is one of the most frequently cited authorities on the statistics of the generations, and they put the transition at 1980-1981. That gives Gen-X 16 years, the same as the Millennials.

22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Paste the last thing you copied. on: February 17, 2017, 12:34:20 pm
AD 16 (Milwaukee - Bayview): deviation -1973; PVI D+11 (9.5, 12.3)
AD 17 (Milwaukee - Polonia, HVAP 51.3%): deviation -584; PVI D+22 (18.5, 25.2)
AD 18 (Milwaukee - Menomonee Valley, HVAP 65.3%): deviation -2477; D+30 PVI (27.8, 32.4)
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 17, 2017, 11:52:40 am
Here's my detail for Madison. Dane and Iowa counties are only 5319 under the quota for 9 ADs and 3 SDs so they are grouped together here. Madison is only 3433 over the quota for 4 ADs, but Maple Bluff, Monona, and Shorewood Hills are surrounded by Madison and water. They have a combined population of 10411 and if combined with Madison are too big for 4 ADs within the 5% deviation limit.

Within Madison groupings were made with adjacent towns to reduce erosity. Wards were lined up from the 2008 set on DRA and the current wards used in the Atlas 2012 data. The map reflects ADs that can reasonably compare 2008 to 2012 voting data.



AD 43 (Sun Prairie): deviation -825; PVI D+10 (9.9, 9.9)
AD 44 (Monona): deviation +1152; PVI D+23 (21.5, 23.6)
AD 45 (Madison - North Side): deviation -1211; PVI D+32 (30.7, 32.8 )

AD 46 (Madison - UW): deviation -794; PVI D+28 (29.3, 26.7)
AD 47 (Madison - Arboretum): deviation 0; PVI D+28 (27.3, 28.8 )
AD 48 (Middleton): deviation -1597; PVI D+18 (17.9, 17.1)

AD 49 (Stoughton): deviation +572; PVI D+12 (12.6, 11.0)
AD 50 (Fitchburg): deviation -1998; PVI D+15 (15.7, 14.7)
AD 51 (Waunakee): deviation -618; PVI D+9 (10.0, 8.8 )

All 9 ADs here are solid D.
24  General Politics / Economics / Re: Corporate short-termism on: February 17, 2017, 08:18:47 am
I have often wondered how much of short-term-ism stems from quarterly reporting compared to annual reporting. The market builds in expectations of the performance of a company to the price. The report gives the market a chance to see if the expectations were met. In order to meet shareholder expectations there is pressure on the company to perform on a time-scale comparable to the reporting period. That would lead to short-term profit maximization. A longer period between reports could reset the scale for corporate decisions. Of course fewer reports reduces transparency and information to the market, so one has to ask what would serve the economy best.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Does this ever happen to you? on: February 17, 2017, 08:02:58 am
I wave a lot at people. Sometimes they see me first and I'm returning the greeting. Sometimes I see them first, and then maybe they see me and maybe they don't. Most often I wave at a crowd when I'm recognized in a large group.
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