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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Climate change and Milankovitch cycles on: September 22, 2017, 07:00:20 am
One of the other issues driving coverage in the 1960's was the desire to make more of the earth suitable for agriculture and development. That meant that warming was not as bad as an outcome as cooling would be. Consider this section from the last chapter of the 1965 book Weather, part of the Life magazine Science Library, written by the associate director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

He does comment on the potential impact of carbon-induced global warming:

Quote
Man's chimneys and combustion engines are sending 12 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year into the earth's atmosphere. In the next 50 years, this rate may quadruple. Such an increase, by trapping more heat, may raise the earth's average temperature by 1o or 2o F - and that, in turn, might over an extended period melt the Greenland ice cap and the vast Antarctic ice fields, raise the level of the oceans by 170 feet, swamp every port and seacoast in the world and push the shores of the Gulf of Mexico north to Memphis Tennessee.

Yet in the very next paragraph he describes a number of far-fetched ideas that would have some of the same warming effect, but casts them in a more positive light:

Quote
Not all the changes wrought by man need be undesirable, of course. There are many more beneficial changes he would like to bring about if he could, and a number of grandiose schemes have been proposed to achieve some of these ends. Here are a few of them:
  • Blacken the Arctic ice with carbon. This would reduce the loss of solar radiation by reflection, and make the northern wastelands more habitable.
...
  • Dam the 55-mile-wide Bering Strait and use nuclear power to pump icy Arctic Ocean water through the dam into the Pacific Ocean. Warm water from the Atlantic would replace the cold water, thus improving the year-round weather of the Arctic.

This is the type of popular science written by professionals that drove thinking back then. These ideas would cause ice cap melting, just like excess carbon dioxide, but they are presented in a more positive light. It's that type of writing that caused the public to react more to potential ice ages than to global warming.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Climate change and Milankovitch cycles on: September 22, 2017, 06:01:29 am
I'll defer your main question to a qualified scientist, but I feel the need to point out that scientists were predicting temperature rises due to CO2 in the 1800s, and the idea that "scientists used to say we were headed to an ice age!!!11" is a typical conservative #fakenews myth/lie.

Also 95% is a huge overestimate of the northern hemisphere population.

In the late 60's and early 70's I was young and reading a lot of science on my way towards a career. I can confirm that the majority of material I read from reputable sources feared a cooling of the planet towards a new ice age. There were relatively few writers talking about the greenhouse effect.

I'm not calling you a liar, but you are either misremembering or were reading sources like Newsweek instead of academic journals:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm


I was in 7th-8th grade in 1970, and I didn't have access to scientific journals. I did read what was available at the public library and that tended to be works of popular science and articles in general news magazines. Environmental changes due to smog were an important topic in the news in the 60's, and air quality in LA was described like Beijing is today. As your link notes, scientists studying northern hemisphere cities had identified aerosol smog as a cooling factor and had observed a cooling trend based on that data set. The idea of particulates leading towards a colder planet was heightened in the press during that time of the Cold War with discussions of a "nuclear winter" resulting from dust kicked up by a WWIII.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 11:00:25 pm
Exurbs are not used as a term in general speech. Most people who aren't involved with or read a lot in urban planning or politics would just use the outskirts to refer to the far suburban areas of a city. The term exurb became useful in urban planning documents to distinguish between the older suburbs from the decades immediately after WWII and the newer suburban areas built mostly in the last 30 years.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Climate change and Milankovitch cycles on: September 20, 2017, 10:53:47 pm
I'll defer your main question to a qualified scientist, but I feel the need to point out that scientists were predicting temperature rises due to CO2 in the 1800s, and the idea that "scientists used to say we were headed to an ice age!!!11" is a typical conservative #fakenews myth/lie.

Also 95% is a huge overestimate of the northern hemisphere population.

In the late 60's and early 70's I was young and reading a lot of science on my way towards a career. I can confirm that the majority of material I read from reputable sources feared a cooling of the planet towards a new ice age. There were relatively few writers talking about the greenhouse effect.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NJ and VA governor races? on: September 19, 2017, 11:49:54 am
The governor races for Virginia and New Jersey are usually treated to be a big deal, since they're the first major elections after a presidential one, and the media uses them to test how a president is being received. I remembered it being a big deal when Christie won in 2009, despite Obama campaigning against him. I think that's when McDonnell came in too.

But there's been no noise about it so far this year. I don't even know who's running. What gives?

They both get coverage on the Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections board. There are multiple threads there for both races.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas: CD35, CD27 found unconstitutional; "intentional racial discrimination" on: September 15, 2017, 09:13:37 pm
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/16/1690288/-Court-strikes-down-Texas-GOP-s-congressional-gerrymander-but-Democratic-victory-is-limited

DKos estimates it'll be at most a net 1 for Democrats, but even that's no guaranteed. I really don't get why they emphasize that the new representative will most likely be Latino. No wonder the white working class hates the left: this is blatant identity politics.
Ah yes, the white working class hate that the minorities will have a chance to elect people of their own race.  Very progressive of them.

You don't need a majority minority district to elect a minority candidate. See SC-Sen, UT-4, TX-23 is 75% Hispanic and they have a black representative. People don't necessarily vote based on who looks like them. I mean for next year, I'm a Hispanic college student supporting a black candidate for NH-1

"increasing minority representation" means increasing minorities' ability to choose representatives, not increasing the number of minorities in Congress.

This is so annoying when people just equate a minority district to having minority representatives....sheesh!

But there's a careful balance to avoid using minorities to elect white Dems to the point that the Congress becomes unrepresentative of minorities. That's why the VRA was passed and upheld by SCOTUS.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Single-Payer Healthcare on: September 15, 2017, 04:13:27 pm
Worse than Cassidy-Collins, Wyden-Bennett, and several others.

Readers of threads on the forum know that I have promoted plans similar to Wyden-Bennett for years. I still firmly believe that Obama erred when he excluded Wyden's ideas from consideration during his first few months in office. Implementing that would have resulted in true universality and decoupling from an employer-based system rather than the hodge-podge expansion we ended up with under the ACA. Unfortunately the new president lumped Wyden's plan in with Kucinich's single payer and it couldn't move forward.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Virginia in the South? What parts? on: September 13, 2017, 09:16:50 pm
That you can differentiate Richmond and Hampton Roads from Appalachia is a point on which we agree. Where we disagree is whether they are a better fit to Baltimore and Philly or to Raleigh and Charleston. On that point we will have to disagree, because I see far more to link to the Carolinas than to MD and PA. I do find a substantial break in development between Fredricksburg and the outskirts of Richmond, so a separation is easy to see on a map. Again I think you are stuck because your choice is to split upper vs lower South rather than Atlantic vs inland South. I can see how that choice puts the old Tidewater of SE VA and NE NC in a no-mans land.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the previous poster's signature: Return of the Jedi on: September 13, 2017, 08:42:35 pm
I vote for quote 3. (of course applied to the poster not the thread)
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Virginia in the South? What parts? on: September 13, 2017, 09:22:11 am
I've taken a couple of trips this last year to Hampton Roads and the VA tidewater. It is certainly not Mid-Atlantic, particularly in the rural areas. The Norfolk metro isn't really Mid-Atlantic either. It's a special type of southern city that I'd call military South. Jacksonville and Pensacola FL have some of the same feel as Norfolk due to the military. There's even a bit of that feel in the inland cities of the south that have a lot of their economy connected to a base (eg. Clarksville TN). The key is that the military brings a much more diverse population to the Norfolk area and caused some cultural overlap, but the underlying feel is still southern.

I'm surprised that you have Richmond in your Mid-Atlantic region of counties. I've never found anything there that would make me think Mid-Atlantic. What did you find that puts it there?

Additional thought: perhaps the issue is from forcing the upper/lower South divide. Though I haven't traveled NC as much as VA, I find them far more alike than different, especially if the DC area is excluded. Both have a relatively small population in Appalachia and most is in the coastal and Piedmont area. It's probably why when forced to group states into larger regions I put VA and NC with the other South Atlantic coastal states, and put the Appalachian and Delta states of the South together.
11  General Politics / Economics / Re: money vs. property on: September 12, 2017, 09:15:58 am
The terms generally depend on the context. In most non-technical usage regarding wealth, stocks and bonds are lumped in with government-issued currency in casual speech since most stocks and bonds are relatively liquid. Physical property is generally considered separately in talking about wealth since it is often relatively illiquid. One can find people who have significant property wealth, but are cash poor.

For example consider this statement: "The venture capitalist earned over $50 million last year and owns five houses." Compare that to "Grandma owns a house worth over $3 million and has some priceless works of art inside, but has trouble paying the property tax each year."

To the OP, those terms in common usage can consider all forms of wealth regardless of liquidity, or they may only apply to a portion of the wealth.
12  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Question about state legislative terms on: September 11, 2017, 06:26:50 pm
Also interesting is the question why they often convene before the governor is sworn in? Congress does also, but that's probably to make sure the newly elected congress elects a president if necessary (EC deadlock). But in the states? In remember that there was some discussion in Pennsylvania in 2014, that outgoing Republican governor Tom Corbett would sign a law for liquor privatization. The measure narrowly failed in the previous Assembly because not enough Republicans supported it. After the 2014 elections, the GOP increased their number of seats what made it possible to use a time window before Democrat Tom Wolf was sworn is as governor. (The measure actually passed after the swearing-in, and Wolf then vetoed it).

In IL the Gov is usually sworn in before the legislature, but not always. The IL Const has the statewide offices sworn in on the 2nd Mon of Jan and the legislature on the 2nd Wed of Jan. The two day gap means that the lame duck legislature can take advantage of a new Gov if there is a controversial initiative.

If Jan 1 falls on Tue or Wed of a year with a new Gov, then the legislature is organized first. That last happened in 1991. It also will happen in 2019 after the next election. It means that the lame duck Dem legislature will not have a Dem Gov for two days, even if Rauner loses in 2018.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In this thread: Solid4096 attempts Ultra Democratic partisan gerrymanders. on: September 11, 2017, 08:04:08 am
I just tried Washington.



so, here are the facts:

the most and least populated districts have a difference of 1001 people.

I left 2 precincts unassigned in this map but I decided not to worry about it since both of those precincts were uninhabited precincts (aka a population of 0).

Now for the 2008 presidential election results:

ColorObama08McCain08
Blue51.446.2
Green53.144.8
Red53.344.9
Yellow53.245.1
Cyan51.546.7
Magenta54.943.2
Black51.346.7
White58.140.0
Purple60.637.6
Orange81.816.7

If I'm a WA Pub, I'd take that map. Pubs probably hold 6 or 7 of 10 seats after 2014.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: September 10, 2017, 10:04:09 pm
I wasn't aware of the 1950's study. In many ways The groupings make more sense to me, especially the Middle Atlantic shift and the creation of a Southwest region. Even the current census suggests that it would have made sense to change, too.

Quote
This suggested reclassification had its merits, for on a purely statistical
basis it provided a more homogeneous set of areas than any others then
in use by the Department of Commerce. However, the new system did
not win enough overall acceptance among data users to warrant adoption
as an official new set of general-purpose State groupings. The previous
development of many series of statistics, arranged and issued over long
periods of time on the basis of the existing State groupings, favored the
retention of the summary units of the current regions and divisions (see
Figure 6-1).

As I could have guessed, the data users were more concerned about longitudinal consistency in time, than adapting to recognize broad changes in economy and demographics. It certainly suggests to me that one shouldn't give too much credence to some of the official Census regions as measures of regions today. If the Census thought it useful, I'd like to see them redo the 1950's study to see how states would be grouped today by that metric. For example would VA shift to the Middle Atlantic given the changes over the last half century? Better still, I'd like to see the Census take up this exercise in a formal way every 50 years.
15  General Politics / Economics / Re: labor contract vs. employment contract on: September 10, 2017, 12:14:32 pm
From a quick googling I think your Wahl-o-Mat question relates to the use of befristeter Arbeitsvertrag. When I looked at some of the longer examples of usage at www.linguee.de, it seems that fixed-term employment contract is the best translation. The problem in translation is I think specific to the laws of the two countries. Let me give four examples of fixed-term employment contracts in the US.

Thank you very much! I was very confused when I discovered that unions are involved in labor contracts.
Your second example is closest to what the question intended. In the original it is not limited to college student but also to those who have graduated. (But No. 4 also fits quite well.)
While the hire-and-fire policy is pretty common and perceived as standard in the US, it is bitterly despised in Europe (outside the UK). Since Schröder's Hartz reforms, however, companies can fire you after your first six months without given any reasons, plus they can offer you time-limited internships as often as they want. They've been exercising their right very rigidly, for which those companies are very often sharply criticized. They can also hire people from private agencies as often as they want since the reforms, which leads to my next question...

Do you call such work placed by private agencies subcontracted labor? And are those private agencies called temporary employment agency? And what are the slaves workers called that can be hired by companies? Agency workers, contract workers, temporary workers? Which translation is the best fit?

The companies are called employment agencies. Many if not most will place workers in both permanent as well as temporary positions depending on the need of the companies that contract with the employment agency. If the worker is filling a temporary job, they are colloquially called temp workers or temp labor.
 
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the previous poster's signature: Return of the Jedi on: September 09, 2017, 10:52:57 pm
It's hard to go wrong quoting the Onion. (Hmm, is that a self-contradicting statement?)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: September 09, 2017, 07:20:40 pm
Should have picked Kelly Burke or Fran Hurley.  Two great Illinois Democrats.

But Biss is making a play for the progressive wing, and though both Burke and Hurley are solid legislators (esp. Burke on higher ed funding), neither are going to excite progressives.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kamala's Ridiculous Redistricting on: September 09, 2017, 12:18:02 pm
Out of curiosity, how are you measuring D+ and R+ numbers? It's not the same as the 2008 numbers in DRA.

I might be doing this wrong, but it's Obama Vote - 52.9. Positive numbers are D+s, obviously.

That will be close, but the better number is [OV/(OV+MV)] - 53.7%. Technically PVI only uses the votes from the two major parties. DRA only has one presidential election, but to be even more technical PVI takes the average of two consecutive presidential elections.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: AtlasDates: Single posters thread on: September 09, 2017, 09:26:28 am
I'm not single, but I'm amused by the style of Tim's bio. I thought perhaps I could adapt it if I ever needed one like that Wink:

I am a dynamic figure, and have been seen comfortably chatting with US Senators and Nobel Prize winners. While in a state capital, I successfully negotiated a bipartisan agreement for the expansion of voting rights. I've done operations inside the old Soviet Union for expenses only.

Media outlets worldwide report on my presence in their communities. Years ago I discovered one of the fundamental particles of the universe and the article has been cited over 1000 times. I am a public figure, yet I anonymously moderate an internet forum.

I balance, I think, I chat, I travel, and my retirement funds are secure.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Word Association Game II: Revenge of the First One on: September 09, 2017, 07:45:42 am
Standard
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kamala's Ridiculous Redistricting on: September 08, 2017, 09:56:54 pm
Out of curiosity, how are you measuring D+ and R+ numbers? It's not the same as the 2008 numbers in DRA.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: I was bored so I decided to attempt an 8-0 Maryland gerrymander on: September 08, 2017, 09:53:41 pm
In MD it's important to know the BVAP% for each CD as well.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you use ever use one of these? on: September 04, 2017, 09:56:04 pm
I've done overnight shifts with a high-quality reclining office chair and a bank of fixed screens. I've used my home La-Z-Boy with a laptop in my lap and side table with a mouse. I'm not looking to spend 6K$ on The Emperor, but if someone provided me one, I could imagine using it.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Word Association Game II: Revenge of the First One on: September 04, 2017, 08:58:28 pm
Maps
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Move a County on: September 03, 2017, 06:36:30 pm
OK: Restore Greer to Texas; move Texas to Texas.
MO: Texas to Texas.

To avoid confusion the counties would be renamed Oklahoma and Missouri counties.

AR: Miller to Texas. Texarkana would be renamed to Texatexa.

NY: Richmond to New Jersey

MA: Dukes to New York

ME: Aroostook to New Brunswick

AK: Ketchikan to Columbia (will be contiguous after international boundary realignment)



Would you split Dukes, or take the islands just off of Woods Hole to NY as well. What about Block Is in Washington RI that sits between Dukes and Long Island?
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