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December 08, 2016, 12:58:19 am
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1  General Politics / Economics / Re: Half of All Americans Never Benefited from the Economic Recovery on: December 07, 2016, 10:47:57 pm
The authors could have just checked out the Atlas last year when I made and posted this graph. Wink

I'm cross posting this from US General Politics since it seems relevant here, too. This chart should help guide one's attempts at a solution. The drift of the upper three quintiles away from the lower two quintiles has been generally slow and steady over the last 35 years. The decade before Reagan isn't appreciably different than the decade after, despite considerable differences in national policy.

It seems clear that wealth has migrated towards the skilled professions, even in the middle class, as the global information age has progressed. The greater the skills required, the more rapid the increase in wages. To me that suggests the most effective changes would direct more resources towards education for the skills needed in the current economy, not large scale wealth redistribution or an investment in jobs in less skilled sectors from economies of the past.

Here's a better chart in response to Ernest. This is also from the historical household income data at the US Census. I found that the top of the second quintile (40%) was the most stable in real dollars, only increasing 5% from 1969 to 2014, so I used that to compare the other quintiles. The bottom quintile remained almost unchanged compared to the second quintile during that span of years and is very close to half the second quintile.

The growth is in the upper three quintiles. The middle quintile grew about 17% compared to the bottom two quintiles. Since the bottom two quintiles had little growth in real dollars, that 17% is close to the growth in real dollars since 1967.  The fourth quintile grew at 35% compared to the bottom two quintiles, or about double the rate of the middle. The limit for the upper 5% grew at 54% compared to the bottom two quintiles, or about triple the rate of the middle. My apologies for the year sequence which looked fine until the software rendered it to a bitmap.


2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter 2016/17 Forecast (Big Mid Dec Cold) on: December 07, 2016, 04:49:07 pm
I'll be in Williamsburg VA on Sun-Tue, but I get to fly back just in time catch the worst of the cold. Tongue Tongue

Weather and flights must not agree with me this month. Last Sun I flew back from DC, timed to be delayed 90 minutes by the heavy wet snowstorm in Chicago.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Florida's redistricting was a complete Success in EVERY regard on: December 07, 2016, 11:57:02 am
People like to call out odd shaped districts like MD-3, MD-7, IL-4, or IL-7 as partisan gerrymandering...but it really isn't at all, it's usually done either for grouping people together (hispanics and blacks) or just silly incumbent protection districts.   Neither of which really helps the "democrats" as whole in any meaningful way.

I've seen Republicans call out IL-4 more times than I can count, but no matter how you draw that district I completely guarantee you it will still be heavily Democratic.

Correct. IL-4 and 7 are legacies of the 1991 map to accommodate botha Latino and black CD on the west side of Chicago. They could have been drawn differently this cycle and looked less gerrymandered, but the incumbents preferred districts that were substantially the same as they have had for 20 years.  IL-1 and 2 were gerrymandered much further out to accommodate incumbents as well, since 3 black-majority CDs were no longer required under the VRA. The significant Dem gerrymanders were IL-5, 8 and 11 with Pub packs into IL-6 and 14.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Equal Area Districts on: December 07, 2016, 11:03:31 am
Its an interesting idea, but I see a problem related to the likely delegation that would result. Let me assume that Dems are concentrated in high density areas, and Pubs in low density areas and set aside VRA issues. In order to get equal area and equal population, each equal-area district would generally have the same proportion of low-density and high-density areas. That would tend to create a partisan mix in each district that would be proportional to the state as a whole. If the state is evenly balanced like OH all the districts will be fairly equal between the parties. If the state strongly favors one party or another like IL or IN, then the resulting districts will tend to mirror the statewide partisan balance and all lean in favor of the majority party. The result could be a delegation that is 100% for the majority party most of the time.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 06, 2016, 09:42:47 pm
I know that the site put up a disclaimer about 2016 data not being up to date, but the 2012 data is definitely not right. For example I noticed that this app had Riverside CA going to Romney 290,227 over Obama 287,754 with Johnson+other at 11,740. The Atlas has Obama 329,063 over Romney 318,127 with other at 15,926. That's a substantial difference.

I looked at a few other counties and the app had lower vote counts than Atlas. I suspect the vote totals on the app come from a media source that quit updating late on election night or shortly thereafter. That would leave out all the late absentee and provisional ballots that are included in the official Atlas count.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Florida's redistricting was a complete Success in EVERY regard on: December 06, 2016, 12:13:21 am
\
How can this possibly not be used in future court rulings to show how much partisan gerrymandering inhibits the free speech of voters?

Because only a tortured reading of "free speech" interprets it as being relevant to the issue of drawing electoral boundaries?  

I'm anti-gerrymandering but I'm also against redefining constitutional terminology for the sake of winning a political argument.

Okay, do you believe Corporations are people and money is speech via Citizens United?   Because that's another national precedent set by the Supreme Court.

The majority opinion in Citizens United never said corporations are people. The closest it came is probably this quote "Corporations, like individuals, do not have monolithic views." The idea that you reference is better attributed to comments made by Justice Stevens in dissent, though he doesn't exactly say that either - he says that corporate speech should be distinguished from individual speech, "In the context of election to public office, the distinction between corporate and human speakers is significant." The statement that money is speech is not from Citizens United other than it quotes from Buckley v Valeo (1976). It amazes me still that this meme continues to flourish.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 05, 2016, 07:44:35 pm
A zoom feature would be nice, as well as the ability to add states.

I am able to zoom on my touchscreen with Edge, but not Chrome. Even then I can't get to the smallest independent cities in VA, and for some reason I can't get to Arlington county either.

Do you mean zooming the whole page similar to CTRL+(+)?  Or is there an actual zoom feature on the map itself?

In this case I used the ability of the touch screen to zoom with my fingers. Chrome has a conflict with the current update to Win 10, so it only works for me in Edge.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2,392 on: December 05, 2016, 07:40:04 pm
VERMONT

Districts are only 13,000 people Sad. Wish me luck.


I kept waiting for the conservatives to show up...



I know this looks bad and makes you doubt my rating system but literally all but 4 of these "Safe D" districts were 60% Obama...

Totals:

46 to 0 with 0 tossups

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Tossup: 0
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 0


That's because Pub doesn't always equal conservative in the national sense. There are regional differences. The VT Senate had 9/30 Pubs going into the 2016 election and 7/30 afterwards. Either way it's a lot more than 0.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Websites like Redraw the states? on: December 05, 2016, 06:49:04 pm
If one of the mods wants to move this thread to Political Geography and Demographics, I'll merge it with the thread on that board.

Negative, don't. I posted it here in case people who don't look at the other board happen to know. It's a question for the community as a whole.

In that case a link to the topic on the other board would be better, and the content should move. All the boards are for the community, this board is for topics about the forum community.

What? I posted it here because I wanted a broad audience for a broad question. Had you not replied it could have died and everyone would be happier.

I replied because I didn't want the content to die, but to merge it with the other thread. That way everyone is sharing their map ideas with this tool in one place.

Dude, I already commented in the other thread before you replied. Plus, this post is not about sharing map ideas, this post is asking if there is other tools out there which are similar.

I understand the OP, but I saw that the thread was being used to post map ideas. That's when I responded. Also, the Political Geography board is where most of the discussion on mapping tools is posted (eg. Daves Redistricting App, QGIS). The posters who frequent that board are more likely to answer your question.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2,392 on: December 05, 2016, 05:07:47 pm
Any thoughts on judging the districts in states that have swung a lot in 8 years? The 2008 data isn't that helpful. Also, are you applying any specific criteria to your plans; eg. pop within 1%, minimizing county and town chops, etc.?

I'll do my best to analyze based on the data given, but it will be imperfect, and I understand that.

It is sometimes necessary to go a fair bit above 1% when dealing with these small districts. My criteria so far has been fairly relaxed, considering that ME and NH's districts are both worth ~28,000 people, but I've rarely had more of a deviation than 3,000 (which is still greater than 10%, I know.) But among bigger states, 1% would be ideal. And minimizing urban center/county chops is ideal, yes.

In the real world state legislative districts can't deviate more than 5% unless there is a compelling state interest. That usually means some set of rigorous standards uniformly applied. That's why I asked if you were applying any.

Avoiding chops is ideal. It isn't that hard to count them and see if they are minimized. That's especially true if chops are the only rigorous standard other than reducing population inequality.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Updates on Voting Rights bills and lawsuits in 2016 (Updated: Nov 29th) on: December 05, 2016, 04:57:30 pm
==================================================================================
Illinois legislature fails to override veto on automatic voter registration
==================================================================================

https://thinkprogress.org/breaking-republicans-block-program-to-register-2-million-illinois-voters-2c975811cf6f#.vxhfpfgs5

Quote
Governor Bruce Rauner (R) also warned of “unintended consequences” when he vetoed the bill in August, alleging the policy could “inadvertently open the door to voter fraud,” but presenting no evidence of this threat.

Study after study has found such voter fraud to be vanishingly rare, and federal courts have recently held that the threat of illegal voting is not a serious enough justification for laws that make it harder for eligible voters to participate.

Had the veto override passed, Illinois would have begun automatically registering state residents to vote every time they visited a Department of Motor Vehicles, office of Human Services, office of Healthcare and Family Services, the Secretary of State’s office, or an Employment Security office. Advocates for the policy point to the example of Oregon, which saw record levels of participation after implementing automatic voter registration earlier this year.

Dead in the water until at least 2019, or possibly longer if Rauner wins reelection.

The Dems could have taken up HB6627 last month which met all of the issues raised in the Gov's veto message. As I noted when the Gov vetoed the bill, it was weak on privacy and data security between agencies and that was spoken about during debate last May.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2,392 on: December 05, 2016, 02:21:54 pm
Any thoughts on judging the districts in states that have swung a lot in 8 years? The 2008 data isn't that helpful. Also, are you applying any specific criteria to your plans; eg. pop within 1%, minimizing county and town chops, etc.?
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 05, 2016, 02:16:32 pm
A zoom feature would be nice, as well as the ability to add states.

I am able to zoom on my touchscreen with Edge, but not Chrome. Even then I can't get to the smallest independent cities in VA, and for some reason I can't get to Arlington county either.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Websites like Redraw the states? on: December 05, 2016, 02:06:25 pm
If one of the mods wants to move this thread to Political Geography and Demographics, I'll merge it with the thread on that board.

Negative, don't. I posted it here in case people who don't look at the other board happen to know. It's a question for the community as a whole.

In that case a link to the topic on the other board would be better, and the content should move. All the boards are for the community, this board is for topics about the forum community.

What? I posted it here because I wanted a broad audience for a broad question. Had you not replied it could have died and everyone would be happier.

I replied because I didn't want the content to die, but to merge it with the other thread. That way everyone is sharing their map ideas with this tool in one place.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Websites like Redraw the states? on: December 05, 2016, 07:46:27 am
If one of the mods wants to move this thread to Political Geography and Demographics, I'll merge it with the thread on that board.

Negative, don't. I posted it here in case people who don't look at the other board happen to know. It's a question for the community as a whole.

In that case a link to the topic on the other board would be better, and the content should move. All the boards are for the community, this board is for topics about the forum community.
16  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: This is frustrating (rant) on: December 04, 2016, 03:49:48 pm
When I make a long post I try to remember to copy it to my clipboard before hitting post. When I do remember, it has more than once saved me the frustration of the OP.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you wealthier or less well off than your local community? on: December 04, 2016, 07:26:39 am
Wealth and income are different quantities. My home is about at the median for my community, and having just put two kids through college my wealth may well be below average. However, I have a high income for my community.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Websites like Redraw the states? on: December 04, 2016, 05:51:39 am
If one of the mods wants to move this thread to Political Geography and Demographics, I'll merge it with the thread on that board.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What congressional districts/equivalents have you been in in 2016? on: December 03, 2016, 08:41:48 pm
This year I took the holiday week to visit family in KY and TN before arriving for my annual visit to KC MO.

CO-1,2,3,4,5,6,7
CT-1,2,3,5
IL-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
IN-1,2,3,4,5,7,9
IA-1,2,3,4
KS-1,2,3
KY-1,2,3,4,5,6
MA-1,2,3,4,5,6
MI-3,4,5,6,7,8,10,13
MO-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
NE-1,3
NH-1,2
NY-18,21,22,24,25,26,27
OH-4,5,7,9,11,13,16
PA-3,5,10,11,17
TN-7
UT-3
VT-AL
WI-1,4,5,6

Total: 83 101

Canada (13)
ON: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Brant, Burlington, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, St Catharines, Sarnia-Lambton

Edited to reflect a return home through St Louis. My county count increased by 32 during the trip. My new total of 1588 breaks the halfway number to 3144.

I thought it was 3142 including DC?

Wikipedia lists 3144 counties in 2013. I believe that uses the Census definitions counties (3007), parishes (64), AK boroughs (19 organized and 11 unorganized), and independent cities (DC, Baltimore, St Louis, Carson City, and 38 in VA). I now realize that is 3143 since Bedford VA gave up its status in 2013. Wikipedia needs an edit.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What congressional districts/equivalents have you been in in 2016? on: December 03, 2016, 04:56:39 pm
In DC for a conference


CO-1,2,3,4,5,6,7
CT-1,2,3,5
DC-AL
IL-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
IN-1,2,3,4,5,7,9
IA-1,2,3,4
KS-1,2,3
KY-1,2,3,4,5,6
MA-1,2,3,4,5,6
MI-3,4,5,6,7,8,10,13
MO-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
NE-1,3
NH-1,2
NY-18,21,22,24,25,26,27
OH-4,5,7,9,11,13,16
PA-3,5,10,11,17
TN-7
UT-3
VT-AL
VA-8
WI-1,4,5,6

Total: 101 103

Canada (13)
ON: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Brant, Burlington, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, St Catharines, Sarnia-Lambton
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 03, 2016, 04:38:31 pm
We do a detailed thread on this every year when new estimates are released. The next release of state estimates will be later this month. Until then, here is my work from the 2015 release.

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-2.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Try to solve this riddle. on: December 03, 2016, 04:30:01 pm
It's a list of states based on how over/underrepresented they are in the EC, and I'm guessing Washington is the closest to being perfectly represented?

Bingo! That’s the one I’ve been looking for. 👍🏻

Washington's electoral vote share almost perfectly matches its share of the U.S. population.

7,170,351 / 321,418,820 = 2.23084 %
                        12 / 538 = 2.23048 %

I was kinda surprised when I learned that Rhode Island is even more overrepresented than Wyoming already is. I hope RI is gonna lose its superfluous elector in the next century.


RI will lose an elector after 2020. They will be at MT for their level of representation.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. on: December 03, 2016, 12:06:34 pm
I agree with jimrtex observations. A study that puts Hidalgo in the small category looks suspect. Hidalgo is the seventh largest pop in TX and is larger than El Paso, which is in the large category. Also the study relies on ecological inference, which is not a simple methodology and one needs to take care to account for changing demographics over time among other things to get it right. If the study doesn't understand the size of the counties I would subject it to added scrutiny.

One the basic point, it is quite possible to get move votes in a category and still have the percentage of votes in that category decrease. The cause would likely be due to the overall increased turnout which changes the denominator as well as the numerator.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: December 03, 2016, 11:44:08 am
We got a new cat last night to replace our 17 year old who died last summer. She's 5 and probably had a tough life since she's had no takers at the shelter since she arrived there last March. She seems pretty independent which will work fine for us and our busy lifestyle.

However I didn't get much time to interact with her. I had to get up at 3:30 this morning to catch a flight to DC. Now I'm in DC for a two day conference, so I get to see the cat again later tomorrow when I get home.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 02, 2016, 06:20:25 pm
I reposted this map of an alternate 50 states a few months ago.

I posted a series of redrawn states back in 2013. Two of those posts were requoted in the 5 Midwests thread. The concept was to follow the Nine Nations of North America by J. Garreau (1981), preserve metro areas, and make each state no less than 50% nor more than 200% of the average population of 6.2 million. Data from dialects, agriculture, topography and religion all play into these borders.



Here are the states from that series. They're named for native peoples of the area. I've listed the principal city or cities and the 2010 population (in millions):

Ecotopia
Duwamish (Seattle) 4.7
Chinook (Portland) 3.6
Shasta (Sacramento) 3.6
Ohlone (San Francisco) 9.5

Empty Quarter
Paiute (Reno, Boise, Spokane) 4.8
Ute (Salt Lake City) 3.5
Navajo (Las Vegas) 3.4
Arapaho (Denver) 5.2

Breadbasket
Dakota (Omaha) 4.2
Ojibwe (Minneapolis) 5.6
Sauk (Madison, Des Moines) 5.1
Illini (St Louis) 5.8
Kansa (Kansas City) 4.3
Comanche (Oklahoma City) 5.3
Wichita (Dallas) 9.6

MexAmerica
Yokuts (Fresno) 4.1
Chumash (Los Angeles) 11.1
Cahuilla (San Diego) 10.5
O'odham (Phoenix) 5.7
Apache (El Paso) 3.1
Xarame (San Antonio) 4.3
Tonkawa (Houston) 5.9

New England
Abenaki (Manchester) 3.8
Wampanoag (Boston) 4.9
Pequot (Providence) 5.1

Foundry
Winnebago (Milwaukee) 4.0
Meskwaki (Chicago) 9.7
Potawatomi (Fort Wayne, Grand Rapids) 4.5
Ottawa (Detroit) 5.8
Erie (Cleveland) 4.3
Miami (Indianapolis, Columbus) 8.9
Mingo (Pittsburgh) 8.3
Iroquois (Buffalo) 5.1
Susquehannock (Washington, Baltimore) 10.9
Lenape (Philadelphia) 7.4
Raritan (Newark) 5.5
Munsee (New York) 8.4
Montauk (Brooklyn) 7.6

Dixie
Chitimacha (New Orleans) 3.7
Caddo (Shreveport) 3.3
Osage (Little Rock) 4.6
Tunica (Memphis) 4.4
Chickasaw (Atlanta) 9.4
Shawnee (Nashville, Louisville) 6.8
Cherokee (Knoxville) 8.8
Powhatan (Virginia Beach) 7.5
Catawba (Charlotte) 7.0
Muskogee (Montgomery, Augusta) 9.0
Seminole (Jacksonville) 9.8

Islands
Colusa (Miami) 7.1

Then at Antonio V's request I calculated the apportionment and 2012 result by hand.

I calculated an apportionment and applied the 2012 results as well back in 2013. 436 seats are apportioned to account for the inclusion of DC. Here are the EV's and 2012 winning party.

Ecotopia
Duwamish (Seattle) 9 D
Chinook (Portland) 7 D
Shasta (Sacramento) 7 D
Ohlone (San Francisco) 15 D


Empty Quarter
Paiute (Reno, Boise, Spokane) 9 R
Ute (Salt Lake City) 7 R

Navajo (Las Vegas) 7 D
Arapaho (Denver) 9 R

Breadbasket
Dakota (Omaha) 8 R
Ojibwe (Minneapolis) 10 D
Sauk (Madison, Des Moines) 9 D
Illini (St Louis) 10 D

Kansa (Kansas City) 8 R
Comanche (Oklahoma City) 8 R
Wichita (Dallas) 8 R


MexAmerica
Yokuts (Fresno) 8 R
Chumash (Los Angeles) 18 D
Cahuilla (San Diego) 17 D

O'odham (Phoenix) 10 R
Apache (El Paso) 7 D
Xarame (San Antonio) 8 D

Tonkawa (Houston) 10 R

New England
Abenaki (Manchester) 7 D
Wampanoag (Boston) 9 D
Pequot (Providence) 9 D


Foundry
Winnebago (Milwaukee) 8 D
Meskwaki (Chicago) 16 D
Potawatomi (Fort Wayne, Grand Rapids) 8 D
Ottawa (Detroit) 10 D
Erie (Cleveland) 8 D
Miami (Indianapolis, Columbus) 15 R
Mingo (Pittsburgh) 14 D
Iroquois (Buffalo) 9 D
Susquehannock (Washington, Baltimore) 17 D
Lenape (Philadelphia) 12 D
Raritan (Newark) 10 D
Munsee (New York) 14 D
Montauk (Brooklyn) 13 D


Dixie
Chitimacha (New Orleans) 7 R
Caddo (Shreveport) 7 R
Osage (Little Rock) 9 R
Tunica (Memphis) 8 R
Chickasaw (Atlanta) 15 R
Shawnee (Nashville, Louisville) 12 R
Cherokee (Knoxville) 14 R
Powhatan (Virginia Beach) 13 R
Catawba (Charlotte) 12 R
Muskogee (Montgomery, Augusta) 15 R
Seminole (Jacksonville) 16 R


Islands
Colusa (Miami) 12 D

Total: Obama 300, Romney 236.

The tool on the OP link makes it somewhat easier to calculate the 2016 results, though I can't zoom on my touch screen due to a problem with Chrome and the latest Win 10 release. It keeps me from clicking on the small independent cities and areas like San Francisco and DC. nb. The zoom does work with Edge.

The 2016 map has Navajo, Illini, Winnebago, Potawatomi, Mingo, and Iroquois flip to Trump while Powhatan flips to Clinton. Trump wins 279 to 257.
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