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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: Today at 08:40:15 am
Here's may take on the NYC metro. I used my various projection tables to get populations appropriate to 2020. I avoided all extraneous county chops with the only exception for Nassau-Queens to accommodate the BVAP majority CD. Within NYC I used community district boundaries when not otherwise constrained by VRA districts or population.

The 6 VRA CDs have the following VAPs using 2010 data.

CD 5: BVAP 50.8%
CD 8: BVAP 53.1%
CD 9: BVAP 52.8%

CD 7: HVAP 55.0%
CD 14: HVAP 58.1%
CD 15: HVAP 56.5%

Because the black population in Brooklyn is growing at a much slower rate than the overall borough population I estimate that to keep CD 8 and 9 over 50% they will need to show at least 52% BVAP in the 2010 numbers. The difference in Queens isn't as much, but the South Jamaica CD will need at least 50.5% BVAP in 2010 numbers to stay at 50% in 2020. That leads me to link all the way out to Hempstead to get sufficient black population. Because of that connection, I decided chopping towns and keeping villages intact was preferable to the nasty erosity of trying to wrap CD 4 all the way around the CD 5 peninsula into Nassau.

The one nasty piece of erosity I have left is CD 6. The shape of CD 7 and borough constraints forced me into the link through LaGuardia along the Grand Central Pkwy to connect Astoria to Forest Hills. I like my Bronx CDs, which I think track the neighborhoods quite well (though I may be out of date in my understanding), but it pins CD 6. I'm open to ideas about all that. I'm also curious to get train's take on my splits around his home.

At some point I'll post my revised upstate with an Albany pack for Torie but no extra Westchester chop across the Hudson. In any case, I presume one can marry this to any plan for the upstate CDs.


2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: Today at 07:34:48 am
I pulled the ACS racial and ethnic percentages for some of the NYC counties to look at how the VRA might affect city CDs in 2020. The table is based on the groupings used in DRA and uses the total population, not VAP. The first number is the percentage from 2011-2013 and the second is the change since 2008-2010.

GroupBronxKingsNassauNew YorkQueens
White10.6: -0.535.8: +0.163.8: -2.447.5: -0.426.7: -1.3
Black29.7: -0.831.6: -0.810.8: +0.312.8: -0.217.5: -0.3
Asian3.5: +0.011.0: +0.68.1: +0.511.3: +0.223.7: +0.5
Latino54.3: +1.210.7: -0.115.3: +1.125.7: +0.127.8: +0.5

The decline of the black percentage in Kings and Queens indicates that to maintain a 50% BVAP CD, one needs a higher number using 2010 data in DRA. In particular, this suggests that the South Jamaica CD may have to reach into more of Nassau where the black percentage is growing.

The growth of the Latino population in Bronx and Queens indicates that a CD evaluated with 2010 data on DRA will likely have a higher HVAP in 2020 than shows up on the app. The slight decline in the Kings Latino fraction will make it harder to draw the traditional CD that loops down to Red Hook through Brooklyn. That suggests a CD linking Bushwick to Corona will work better, leaving two other Latino CDs in the Bronx plus the northern tip of Manhattan.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 24, 2015, 04:21:28 pm
FTR, I'm with train that the community board boundaries are the most accepted, though one could also use the neighborhood tabulation areas as a smaller division, and are built from census areas consistent with the 55 PUMAs in NYC.

Anyway, Given Torie's work I thought I would post my estimates of how big a 2020 CD in the NYC area should appear using the DRA 2010 data. To get the number I use 780K as the 2020 CD quota, then assume uniform growth within the county. This is the average target number one goes for with 26 CD plan for a CD entirely in that county. For a CD that spans counties the DRA size would be the weighted average.

Bronx 714K
Kings 701K
Nassau 755K
New York 725K
Queens 710K
(Richmond 762K)
Suffolk 768K
Westchester 737K

For example the Staten Island CD in 2020 has 480K in Richmond and 300K in Kings (2020 population). Averaging (480*762+300*701)/780 = 739. So that CD should be about 739K in population as seen on DRA.


4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 23, 2015, 07:14:36 pm
Everything south of North Castle and Greenburgh is a good fit for 16 CDs. You have chopped Greenburgh to peel off the river villages. I like the line keeping all of Greenburgh in the north. That leaves the question of where to get the extra pop for the Rockland/Orange CD. I'll look at the options.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 23, 2015, 08:37:36 am
I added NY-11 and NY-08 to the map, and tweaked the lines in NYC to follow ward boundaries where possible. Around NY-08 that was not possible to do entirely, since the ward boundaries there are so erose between my NY-08 and NY-10. NY-08 does not have the old PVI numbers on the chart, because the court did not draw a south Brooklyn seat in remotely the way that I drew it (the court screwed the Pubs out of a seat in south Brooklyn), so the comparison would be meaningless.

The skew using the 2008 numbers for the CDís, but the 2012 numbers for the state PVI (10% Dem), is zero. Since NY trended a couple of points Dem in 2012, if the 2008 state PVI were used (about 8% Dem), the skew would be 1 in favor of the Dems.  Itís probably more skewed using the 2012 numbers for everything, given most areas of the state trended Dem, but that is not possible to calculate given Daveís application uses the 2008 election numbers.  In Democratic states, the skew should typically be lower than a more Pub state, since the exponential rise in Dem seats as the PVI moves their way, would tend to offset the natural Pub geographic advantage that exists in most states when drawing CD lines hewing to jurisdictional boundaries.

To answer Train's question, I think the correct standard is to get up to 50% BVAP (but no more if securing a higher percentage involves racial gerrymandering, because as SCOTUS has just reminded us, that is illegal racial packing), if the minority community is contiguous, unless it costs them a seat within a contiguous area, and then you shave the percentage down to see if the second seat can be preserved. The subject CD probably only has maybe 12% HCVAP, so shaving it down much in a zone where the neighboring areas are not black minority friendly would be problematical anyway. Keeping the CD all in Queens will drop the BVAP percentage circa the 2010 census, down to about 46% FWIW. I suspect the percentage is lower now for the portion of the CD within Queens. My impression is that the black population change there is sluggish or declining. So it may arguably be necessary for the CD to jut more into Nassau which is where the black population is migrating (to the extent it is not decamping from the NYC area entirely). Also FWIW, the court when it drew the map for this CD, saw it my way.

 
 

It looks like you chop towns in Westchester. I assumed that villages were like in MI, and subsidiary to towns that are the appropriate entity to keep intact. Is your experience there telling you that towns are less important than villages?

Also, do you have HVAP and BVAP numbers for your NYC districts. I put together a plan minimizing borough chops and I want to see how it compares.


6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Dave's Redistricting App Screwed? on: April 23, 2015, 08:28:23 am
It has never worked for me on any browser and I have always wanted to try it out Sad

Try Internet Explorer with a small population state like NV, it seems to work most consistently. The size of state you can load sometimes depends on the speed of your internet connection. I find CA notoriously difficult to load and operate except on my most high-speed connections. Moving the opacity to 100% once a state loads also speeds operations.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream on: April 22, 2015, 09:23:19 pm
I just read it. It was rather bleak. The ideas presented weren't new to me, I've encountered them here and there in other forms. I quite enjoyed it the read, though. I have a soft spot for this kind of thing.. tortuous existential crises.  I voted FS

Edit: Read it here 

I was a huge reader of SF, and Ellison was groundbreaking in his use of the genre. There was little like it in the SF genre in the 1960's.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Earth Day on: April 22, 2015, 08:51:12 pm
Am I the only Republican who is actually acknowledging it?

No. I took the opportunity to speak to a group of a few hundred clean energy activists today.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project - WV, MD & DC added on: April 22, 2015, 04:34:24 pm
Excellent! After Oklahoma and (sigh) Texas with it's myriad of counties will be added - all South will be done))) And in some aspects this is the most interesting part of the project...

Personally, I don't consider TX nor OK to be part of the South. Wink I almost don't even care to do the rest of the nation; as you said, the South really is the most interesting element. Speaking of areas that aren't the South...



DC & MD have been added.

DC 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 87.3%
MD 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 45.7%

It's an eternal question - whether Texas and Oklahoma are South or West? IMHO - both. But they are no less southern then Maryland is)))

I would argue Texas north and east of San Antonio is unambiguously the South.  Oklahoma is primarily in the Midwest, save for OK-02.  Regarding MD, the Eastern Shore is clearly still Southern and the DC suburbs clearly are not.  Baltimore is surprisingly ambiguous.  Its political behavior is more consistent with an Upper South metro area than with the Northeast.  But more than half the population lives in areas that are clearly not Southern as of 2010, so I am going to say it belongs in the North now.

Areas north of San Antonio generally do not feel like the South. The I-35 corridor from Austin through Waco to the DFW Metroplex is certainly not like the Deep South to its east. The are some elements of the Appalachian South, but the attitudes include a lot of the frontier thinking of the West. It's more like a merger of the southern Plains and the Ozark hills with just a bit of Mexican influence. For me it's the area that is uniquely and quintessentially Texas.



I certainly agree that Texas from Houston west is not like the Deep South.  However, it is pretty equivalent to places like Nashville, Richmond and Charlotte that have generally maintained an Upper South feel even with massive population growth.  And a substantial portion of the recent migrants to such places moved there in part because they admire the Southern lifestyle.

My visits there disagree with your assessment. I find little in common between the TX I-35 corridor and Richmond and Charlotte, and only a slight in similarity in feel to Nashville (in part due to the commonality from country music out of Austin). Dallas/Ft Worth reminds me as much like OKC or KC. But as I said I think that area is a unique blend that helps define TX.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project - WV, MD & DC added on: April 22, 2015, 08:05:34 am
Excellent! After Oklahoma and (sigh) Texas with it's myriad of counties will be added - all South will be done))) And in some aspects this is the most interesting part of the project...

Personally, I don't consider TX nor OK to be part of the South. Wink I almost don't even care to do the rest of the nation; as you said, the South really is the most interesting element. Speaking of areas that aren't the South...



DC & MD have been added.

DC 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 87.3%
MD 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 45.7%

It's an eternal question - whether Texas and Oklahoma are South or West? IMHO - both. But they are no less southern then Maryland is)))

I would argue Texas north and east of San Antonio is unambiguously the South.  Oklahoma is primarily in the Midwest, save for OK-02.  Regarding MD, the Eastern Shore is clearly still Southern and the DC suburbs clearly are not.  Baltimore is surprisingly ambiguous.  Its political behavior is more consistent with an Upper South metro area than with the Northeast.  But more than half the population lives in areas that are clearly not Southern as of 2010, so I am going to say it belongs in the North now.

Areas north of San Antonio generally do not feel like the South. The I-35 corridor from Austin through Waco to the DFW Metroplex is certainly not like the Deep South to its east. The are some elements of the Appalachian South, but the attitudes include a lot of the frontier thinking of the West. It's more like a merger of the southern Plains and the Ozark hills with just a bit of Mexican influence. For me it's the area that is uniquely and quintessentially Texas.

11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Dave's Redistricting App Screwed? on: April 21, 2015, 08:52:34 pm

Currently no future after November 30, 2016. Sad
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your number on the Kinsey Scale? on: April 20, 2015, 11:14:25 pm
F: The test failed to match you to a Kinsey Type profile. Either you answered some questions wrong, or you are a very unusual person.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Yale estimates concern for climate change by county on: April 20, 2015, 11:00:06 pm
The ferromagnetic effects we see are not just about iron as an atom, but certain groupings of iron atoms to form metals at sufficiently low temperatures like those around us. Iron in the blood or mixed with other non-magnetic media has no special effect. Switching the Earth's field would have no discernible effect on even solid metal iron unless it was previously polarized - that's why a both sides of a magnet will stick equally well to a refrigerator door.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 20, 2015, 10:41:32 pm
I get your motivation now. Political realities are important, and it would be interesting to see how something like this fared on the Pareto test. Could it make the cut to go to the finals where it should fare well?

If the populations are equal then your chop of Ulster should be about 10K. The NYC UCC + Sullivan is only 3K over the population of 18 CDs. That's why it became the basis for my plan. Since Columbia projects to have 13K less than Sullivan, that leaves 10K to come from Ulster.

I still don't see how you chop into Suffolk when it is underpopulated for 2 CDs. The chop should be from Suffolk into Nassau.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 20, 2015, 06:12:25 pm
One problem with projections this far out is that projections based on the whole will differ from projections based on the sum. If I take the state estimate released for 2014 it equals the sum of the county estimates for 2014 as one would expect. The sum of my county projections to 2020 gives 20,269,018 (different because I round the estimate to 4.25 years to account for the 3 months from 4/1 to 7/1). But the state projection to 2020 using my same formula gives 20,300,327. Fortunately that's only a 0.15% discrepancy and the estimate shifts from year to year are much larger, so one can treat the sum of county projections as if they are the state projection.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 20, 2015, 09:11:11 am
When I add up all the projected county pops (20,269K) and divide by 26 I get 779.6K for the quota in 2020. That's the value I use to get the leftover population in Westchester. I get Dutchess+Putnam+Westchester is 159K short of 2 CDs, so that has to come out of the Bronx.

The two Buffalo UCC CDs as we both drew them project to be 9.4K short of the quota based on whole counties. That requires a chop out like mine into Steuben.

The UCC was originally designed to create a cover rule. It is only in the last few months that the notion of a pack requirement was put in to match. A pack rule by itself will tend to be a boon for the Pubs by driving the urban population into as few districts as possible. The cover rule can benefit either party depending on the size of the UCC. Without the cover rule I see no purpose to use UCCs at all.


Below are my numbers FWIW. Did you use April 1, 2010 and April 1, 2020 as the bracket dates for the population change extrapolations?

Regarding your comments on the cover and pack rules for UCC's, sometimes the pack rule helps the Dems, as in Kansas certainly, and perhaps Nebraska. The pack rule would help the Pubs where a metro area as a whole is more Dem than the hinterlands. The Pubs used to chop Rochester and Columbus with regularity, and if that is used as the county chop without penalty, it would not hurt the map score that much. With the pack rule, ignoring the cover rule, can only cause mischief up to about half the population of a UCC. For myself, what is important is the size of the "violation" of the cover rule. Minor violations, like I did when NY-17 took in about 17,500 people in Ulster, I don't think violates the spirit of the rule to the extent it should be borne in mind. That is why I wanted to base the cover rule on macrochop increments, with a chop less than a microchip having no penalty. Anyway, I could also hew to the cover rule, by having NY-18 chop into Greene County, with NY-17 getting out of Ulster by chopping more deeply into Westchester County. But that makes for a much more problematical map, which will never, ever be drawn.

This assumes of course that my numbers are accurate, which perhaps they are not. If not, and yours are, I suspect that NY-17 need not chop into Ulster in all events, or it will be very close. This is all projection anyway. Given the 17K is based on what is going on in the state as a whole, and how much upstate is stagnant or losing population vis a vis how much the NYC area is growing, the odds are really about 50-50 at this point either way.

My main purpose in doing this actually, is to submit a 26 and 27 CD map to the local press, because it will be of interest that our CD is slated to undergo massive changes in the next census, due to the unusual shape of the state. Thus I was focusing on what would seem most likely to be drawn, absent the Dems entirely controlling the process, or some weirdo bipartisan gerrymander. What I think is most likely to be drawn, is my map (putting aside the Rochester issue), as amended by Train, to keep NY-18 on the east side of the Hudson River. That is much more likely than NY-18 crossing over into Orange County. NY has a long tradition of keeping Orange and Rockland Counties together, and it makes sense.



I take the 4/1/10 numbers and the 7/1/14 estimate and I calculate a constant growth rate for each county (not linear population change). I then project that to 4/1/20 using the calculated rate. I emailed you my population file a couple days ago. That has the numbers I'm using.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Yale estimates concern for climate change by county on: April 19, 2015, 08:43:02 pm
Are we talking about magnetic pole shifts, or the poles for Earth's axis of rotation? They are not aligned with each other.
It was my understanding that a pole shift would alter the axis; or is it the tide change that messes things up? it is what happened last time, wasn't it? as far as the pole and axis, one is perpendicular of the other, isn't it? hum, I guess I'll have to look at all this again. yeah, a pole shift does change the equator. I think I'm confused about this now.

The Earth's magnetic pole shifts every few hundred thousand years, the last major shift was 780,000 years ago. The Earth's rotation can't shift without an outside force, such as from a collision by a giant asteroid. Even then it doesn't flip but might change speed and direction.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 19, 2015, 08:05:10 pm
When I add up all the projected county pops (20,269K) and divide by 26 I get 779.6K for the quota in 2020. That's the value I use to get the leftover population in Westchester. I get Dutchess+Putnam+Westchester is 159K short of 2 CDs, so that has to come out of the Bronx.

The two Buffalo UCC CDs as we both drew them project to be 9.4K short of the quota based on whole counties. That requires a chop out like mine into Steuben.

The UCC was originally designed to create a cover rule. It is only in the last few months that the notion of a pack requirement was put in to match. A pack rule by itself will tend to be a boon for the Pubs by driving the urban population into as few districts as possible. The cover rule can benefit either party depending on the size of the UCC. Without the cover rule I see no purpose to use UCCs at all.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 19, 2015, 07:43:53 pm
Westchester is growing at 0.6% per year so far this decade. Projecting out to 2020 adds 56 K in the county that aren't in DRA. Your CD 18 has Dutchess (295K) and Putnam (99K) leaving 385K from Westchester. 385K/1005K is 38%. 38% of 56K is 21K so with a uniform spread of the growth as I described, DRA should show CD 18 as 21K low with its 2010 data. DRA shows it 18.6K low for a difference of 2.4K. That's within 0.5% so my CD is ok for 2020.

Your chopped Delaware has become a bridge between whole counties which is forbidden under the rules.

Suffolk (projected 1516K) will be underpopulated for 2 CDs in 2020 by 43K, but it looks like you cut into it from Nassau.

You mention microchops, but I thought we abandoned them in part at your request. Huh
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 19, 2015, 03:19:03 pm
I suspect Torie and I have reversed the roles we played earlier discussing IL when he complained about some liberties I took regarding the rules due to my preference in dealing with areas in Cook. Here I'm pushing to follow the rules, yet I sense from Torie a desire to recognize political expectations in NY.

Anyway, here is my attempt to provide more detail to the upstate districts. I preserve county subdivisions, but I'm not using estimates for the county subdivisions - instead I'm apportioning the county-level projections to the subdivisions on a more uniform basis. It's less accurate, but faster that way. All the districts should be within 0.5% when projected to 2020.

I preserve all UCC cover and pack rules, except the Albany pack. In exchange there are only 6 chops and none are macrochops except the mandatory chops of Erie and Westchester. None of my districts are unusually erose, so I expect a good score there. I don't see why one wants 9 chops (counting both fragments connecting Westchester to upstate) just to avoid the penalty for the Albany pack. Also, by placing Columbia with Dutchess and a piece of Ulster with Orange Torie's map incurs a pack penalty for the NYC UCC, which negates the avoidance of a penalty in the Albany UCC.

21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / NY with 26 CDs in 2020 on: April 19, 2015, 01:19:07 pm
Torie's map has some attractive features, but I want to follow up on train's observation on the Rochester UCC. The UCC consists of Monroe and Ontario, and my projection puts their combined population and 870K which is about 12% more than the population of one of 26 CDs. If the UCC expands at all this decade, Wayne is the most likely candidate since the Rochester UCC is already in that county and it wouldn't take much to link up the Palmyra and Newark urban clusters along NY-31.

With that in mind I intentionally put both Ontario and Wayne in the Syracuse district. I slightly overpopulated the Syracuse CD with the intention of taking population from Ontario in that district to beef up the slightly undersized Rochester CD. That way I could keep the UCC cover and pack rules intact there with a minimum of chops. The initial Torie plan would incur both a cover and pack penalty for Rochester.

Note that since a single chop of Ontario in my plan would bring both the Rochester and Syracuse CDs within 0.5% of the projected quota. Similarly chops of just Erie and Steuben are sufficient to bring the other western CDs within 0.5%. In the Hudson valley I selected the counties such that chops in Franklin and Sullivan are sufficient to bring those four CDs within the 0.5% margin. Of the aforementioned chops, only Erie is a macrochop.

22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Yale estimates concern for climate change by county on: April 19, 2015, 12:28:00 pm
Are we talking about magnetic pole shifts, or the poles for Earth's axis of rotation? They are not aligned with each other.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Regions of New Jersey on: April 18, 2015, 09:54:21 pm
When I was living out east in the 1980's, I didn't hear much about Central Jersey. My friend from Princeton clearly identified with the Monmouth-Ocean shore and that was "south". By the 2000's confusion had crept in as the NYC metro was drifting south to include that part of the shore. It doesn't surprise me that it is resolved by the locals defining a Central Jersey.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 18, 2015, 08:16:56 pm
Man, that 26-district NY might be less erose than the 27-district version, but I think that despite that the 27-district map is a better one, since it does a better job of keeping the North Country and Capital Region together (the Schenectady cut-out is still unfortunate though).

Also of course it doesn't matter much to separate out groups within NYC when VRA constraints will make mincemeat of most boundaries there.  

I'm curious about NJ.  Imagine there's not a whole lot of groups you can make happen; NJ just does not tend to play well with the numbers as they currently stand.  Hopefully at least you can still nest the Philly-oriented bits in approximately three districts, like is currently possible.

The Capital Region will have a population too large for one district and too small for a district made up of 3 of the 4 counties in the UCC. A map will either chop a county or fail to pack a CD within the UCC. Since I don't have the county subdivision projections, I'm going with whole counties using 5% as the cutoff to avoid a macrochop.

Without drilling into census tract ACS data I'm not sure that satisfying the VRA will need to hop many county lines. Brooklyn can nest two BVAP-majority CDs within, and current ACS data seems to suggest that will still be true in 2020. Queens-Nassau can create another black CD, and that will be the extent of the VRA for blacks. There may only be one line crossing to make a Latino CD joining Brooklyn and Queens. Bronx will have one Latino CD within and maybe one joining with Manhattan.

The few counties in NJ does make it tough at the UCC level. It would be better if it followed NECTA and worked from cities, towns and boroughs.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 18, 2015, 07:30:06 am
Since there was a request for NY, I'll post that. NY is projected to lose one seat in 2020, but it's on the bubble and would be the next state to get a seat by my projection. So I'll look at NY with both 26 and 27 CDs.

Both plans use 2014 estimates projected to 2020. Whole counties are used and UCC covers are preserved. Districts are within 5% of the quota except in the NYC UCC where the tolerance is 20%.

This is the 26 CD plan and the following areas have multiple districts:

Suffolk 2 (1.94)
Queens 5 (4.92)
Brooklyn 4 (4.19)
Manhattan 6 (5.93)
Buffalo 2 (1.98)


This is the 27 CD plan and the following areas have multiple districts:

Suffolk 2 (2.02)
Queens 5 (5.11)
NYC 10 (9.98)
Buffalo 2 (2.00)


The extra CD allows for a Poughkeepsie district that doesn't have to dip into Westchester and can include Columbia county for Torie. Smiley
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