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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Could a faithless elector swing an election? on: July 24, 2016, 09:18:14 am
A faithless elector in that scenario could shift from Trump/Pence to Pence/Trump. Since no one would have 270 EVs, the top three names would go to the House. That means the House would choose from between Clinton, Trump and Pence. Pence could conceivably win in the House and become the President.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Super Symmetry (Physics) on: July 24, 2016, 12:34:00 am
SUSY was an attractive new approach to some hard problems in particle physics when it debuted in the 1970's. It was mathematically elegant and made some clear predictions - which turned out to be wrong. Concurrently the messy Standard Model was making predictions in the 80's that turned out to be correct such as the W and Z bosons.

Theoreticians like elegance, so they tweaked SUSY to match the observations. Along comes the 90's and again SUSY makes predictions that are not observed, while the SM predicts a top quark which is observed. But it's mathematically messy. Cry

But rather than dump the whole SUSY idea, theoreticians clung to it - because it would be so elegant if it were actually true. They tweak it again to match observations, all of which are consistent with the SM btw. In fact few theoreticians think an elegant minimal SUSY can explain anything anymore, so there is a profusion of SUSY variants.

To me this is like the classic error of searching for a lost coin under a street lamp even though the coin was dropped a half a block away where it is too dark to see. I get that the SM is a mess and doesn't flow from simple first principles. But instead of spending time under the SUSY light with no success, I think we should cast about for new light in the darkness away from SUSY, and perhaps reveal insights blocked by the concentration of theory on SUSY and its kin.
3  General Politics / Economics / Re: 80% of business executives: raise the minimum wage on: July 24, 2016, 12:15:43 am
Just keeping up with inflation would put the minimum wage at about $9.25/hour. Most execs know that won't hurt their business at all since that puts it at about the point where there's still more money going to consumers through wage increases than lost from job cuts. The biggest impact from an increased minimum wage may be from taxpayers, since units of government like park departments and community colleges are usually big users of minimum wage student work.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / MOVED: Does Kaine at all Appeal to Working Class Whites? on: July 23, 2016, 06:18:08 am
This topic has been moved to 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241480.0
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What congressional districts/equivalents have you been in in 2016? on: July 22, 2016, 11:05:58 pm
I've completed the outbound leg of my third and final trip this month. I even picked up 7 new counties.

CO=1,2,4,6,7
IL-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
IN-1
IA-1,2,4
MI-13
NE-1,3
OH-9,11
WI-1,4,5,6

Total: 31 36
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's nomination is the first time US politics has left me truly afraid on: July 22, 2016, 10:55:36 pm
Interestingly, I left the convention less fearful of a Trump presidency than I did going in. There were two major factors in that. First was Paul Ryan's speech, which laid out a far more traditional Pub approach to governance, and left me feeling that Congress would be calling the policy shots, not the White House. The second was the acceptance speech, where Trump clearly started paying attention to his campaign staff. He avoided any name calling and very closely followed the script given to him. He even went so far as to quell the "Lock her up" chant, which was certainly instilled by Manafort, et al. That doesn't suggest to me that he isn't going to launch on opponents as he thinks fits the tenor of a speech, but it does suggest that his staff now actually has influence in Trump's decisions.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Trump Speech on: July 22, 2016, 10:20:49 pm
I didn't hear the whole speech, can't comment to say if it was good or bad.

The question I could ask though, Did he convince the non Republican or Democrat man or woman of the street ? That's the audience that speech was made for, not for the people that where in stands last night.

He was not aiming at the standard Dem on the street. They aren't going to swing for him, and giving them policy specific will give them clearer reasons to vote for HRC (think about the way the Hillbots used Bernie's specifics against him during the primaries.)

He did aim at voters who don't often take political sides but prefer to be labeled as unaligned. That's  the pitch to the left out and forgotten workers of the last decade, and to the security moms who aren't feeling as safe as they did 4 years ago.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Opinion of Electoral Vote Allocation by Congressional District on: July 22, 2016, 07:38:55 am
If it coupled with neutral redistricting reform, then I think it has value. People in states dominated by the other party but in large homogeneous regions (upstate NY, eastern WA, black areas of the Atlanta metro, Rio Grande valley of TX) would feel like their vote mattered more. In gerrymandered states it just becomes another point of abuse.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Trump Speech on: July 22, 2016, 07:30:54 am
as someone who attended the RNC, i can tell you the atmosphere after was absolutely amazing. A+++. A historic speech to be remembered

I'm sorry I didn't know you were there, I was live posting from the RNC on Mon and Tue, and would have reached out to say hi in person.

Anyway some parts of the speech worked quite well, a challenger should outline the reason for change, and he did that. I don't think a challenger should put a lot of policy prescriptions forward in a nomination speech, and other successful candidates running from the party out of power have focused on vision not details. However the length may have taken some of the power out of the message as seen by the TV viewer. I gave it a B.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 20, 2016, 08:53:58 am
My sense is that the Trump campaign is more interested in tracking with what will play best, rather than stay locked on a consistent schedule. It seems they concluded that the negative speeches against Hillary would work better for them than the original pro-jobs message. They left a few of the original message speeches in, but those seemed to be from speakers who were non-politicians who only fit that message. They also get a bit of both worlds this way as casual observers might read there was an evening about jobs, but would hear the attack message.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: July 20, 2016, 08:39:04 am
By my count, I've purposely flown to, from or through 95 airports, flown through and deplaned to stretch my legs on a direct flight on 4 more, landed at, but stayed on the plane for another 4, and visited but did not fly from 5 other airports.  So 95, 99, 103 or 108, depending on how you want to calculate it.

With such an exhaustive list, I could have missed some airports, though.

I count it if I'm on the tarmac or in the terminal, so your high number would be consistent with that. I'm sure we'd love to see your list if you have time to enter it.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: July 20, 2016, 08:33:03 am
One new one and one I was reminded of from my childhood.

Here's my list (I'll add more if I think of them):

Airports (98)

International (16)
Winnipeg, Canada
Goose Bay, Canada
Mazatlan, Mexico
Rio de Janiero, Brazil
Sao Paolo, Brazil
Florianopolis, Brazil
London Heathrow, UK
Manchester, UK
Glasgow, UK
Paris CDG, France
Lyon, France
Geneva, Switzerland
Zurich, Switzerland
Frankfurt, Germany
Munich, Germany
Moscow, USSR

Domestic West (18)
Everrett (Paine), WA
Seattle, WA
Spokane, WA
Boise, ID
Missoula, MT
Kalispell (Glacier), MT
Salt Lake City, UT
Los Angeles LAX, CA
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Tucson, AZ
Las Vegas, NV
Albuquerque, NM
Denver (International), CO
Denver (Stapleton), CO
Aspen, CO
Gypsum, CO

Domestic South (22)
Dallas DFW, TX
Dallas Love, TX
Houston IAH, TX
San Antonio, TX
New Orleans, LA
Gulfport, MS
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN
Covington, KY
Birmingham, AL
Atlanta, GA
Jacksonville, FL
Orlando, FL
Ft  Lauderdale, FL
Miami-Dade, FL
Tampa, FL
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Blacksburg, VA
Newport News, VA
Sterling/Washington IAD, VA
Arlington/Washington DCA, VA

Domestic East (18)
Baltimore/Washington BWI, MD
Salisbury, MD
Pittsburgh, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Scranton, PA
Newark, NJ
New York JFK, NY
New York LGA, NY
Islip, NY
Newburgh, NY
Syracuse, NY
Ithaca, NY
Providence, RI
Hartford, CT
Boston, MA
Worcester, MA
Manchester, NH
Augusta, ME

Domestic North (24)
Cleveland, OH
Columbus, OH
Dayton, OH
Detroit, MI
Kalamazoo, MI
South Bend, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Bloomington, IN
Chicago MDW, IL
Chicago ORD, IL
West Chicago, IL
Rockford, IL
Peoria, IL
Springfield, IL
St Louis, MO
Kansas City, MO
Des Moines, IA
Dubuque, IA
Omaha, NE
Lincoln, NE
Minneapolis, MN
St Paul, MN
Milwaukee, WI
Williston, ND
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 08:36:22 pm
Why are there so many empty seats?

Is this normal? I don't remember seeing that many empty seats in the past?

Are people not there because they fear for their safety due to the recent terror attacks?

Did they forget to tarp over the seats or something?

Voting for delegates is over. Many states have delegate receptions that are starting up. I'll be heading to one myself in about a half hour.


Thank you! I've been trying to figure it out. I know if I had the chance to be at a convention, I'd want to hear every speech. I didn't know they had receptions and things going on during the speeches.

And some delegates do stay all the way. Especially first-timers. But many delegates use these receptions for networking in advance of the election.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 08:28:09 pm
Why are there so many empty seats?

Is this normal? I don't remember seeing that many empty seats in the past?

Are people not there because they fear for their safety due to the recent terror attacks?

Did they forget to tarp over the seats or something?

Voting for delegates is over. Many states have delegate receptions that are starting up. I'll be heading to one myself in about a half hour.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 07:54:11 pm
Some delegations like MI are largely in their seats and attentive. Others are milling around in small groups ignoring the speeches. The guests in the balconies are the most attentive.

Late night receptions will be starting in the next hours, so I expect people to start heading out when their events get started.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 07:30:28 pm
Sharon Day speaking. The hall seems empty

The hall is still quite full. The concourse is active with delegates getting food or using the rest room, but at least 3/4 of the floor is busy.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 07:15:59 pm
It won't matter, but Alaska definitely got screwed.

Or they learned to be a lot more careful about how they write their delegate selection rules.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 06:16:57 pm
Here's the scene
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 05:22:12 pm
No seriously, can anyone explain what the deal was with Alaska?

AL has state rules about candidates that suspend campaigns, and they lose their delegates. The delegation chair announced the original totals, not the ones based on their rules.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 05:12:48 pm
The VA delegation seems to be absent in its entirety.

You're there?!  Are you a delegate?  I had forgotten about this thing till I read the news today.

I've been out of the country for a couple of weeks.  Got home at about 2AM last night.  Catching up on bills, mowing the lawn, rinsing the gear, etc.  I also had agreed to be a reviewer for an article which is due July 25 so I was working on that on the plane ride home.  Probably will be working on that for at least a few days.

From what I've read in the on-line versions of WaPo and NYT, it was a rocky start, replete with plagiarism, browbeating, luke-warm endorsements, and lots of gloom and doom.  On the other hand, they're both reporting that the NeverTrump faction seems to have faded, so it'll not likely be a contested convention.

Are you pumped about casting a vote for Trump?  I think he won your state handily.


I'm an alternate, but not needed to cast votes today.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 05:02:46 pm
The VA delegation seems to be absent in its entirety.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 04:54:18 pm
I just got to my seat as Sessions began.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 08:29:51 am
WOW this hall is empty.  Was Seal Team Six the last speech?

I am finally catching up to this thread. For many the business of the party was this afternoon, and that's the part that interested me as my earlier posts suggested. The evening has speeches for the TV audience and parties for the delegates that typically start around 10 PM, so that's before prime time ends. For folks who come to multiple conventions the real work of the evening is networking with other party officials and sponsors. I spent much the evening first at a reception then at a steakhouse for dinner. The speeches were on TV in the background, but I was more interested in the dinner conversation about the party and down ballot races.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thoughts on Kasich not attending the GOP convention... on: July 18, 2016, 10:27:39 pm
He was in Cleveland, three blocks from the Q center during the floor fight on rules. He was a guest of the IL delegation.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 02:27:08 pm
On the floor for the last speeches before committee reports.
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