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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: Today at 05:19:22 pm
Here's a version of OR I drew from neutral principles. It's an anti-gerrymander, but I'm curious to get an opinion from NOVA Green.



I projected the counties to 2020 from the 2016 estimates. As drawn here are the percent population deviations for the Beaverton and Salem CDs are less than 0.5% and wouldn't need any adjustment. The other CDs are all within 2.3% of the quota, and need minimal shifts to bring them to practicably equal. For example shifting all of the Warm Springs IR into the Gresham-Pendleton CD and the area north of Sexton Mtn Pass into the Eugene CD would be enough to probably meet standards for population equality.
It meets reasonable standards already. They are as equal as practicable using counties.

It is bozo logic that representatives elected from such districts would not be "chosen (...) by the people of [Oregon]"

As soon as SCOTUS determines that "as equal as practicable" is the same as "substantially equal" then I'll entertain the notion that a 10% range on CDs is acceptable. Until then I will assume that SCOTUS intends that the phrases be different and that "as equal as practicable" requires a stricter numerical standard than 10%. I use 1% for CDs since a range close to that has recently been upheld.
2  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Suggestion: Forum Jobs List on: July 21, 2017, 09:55:19 pm
I moved the thread that was started in response to the Forum Community.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 21, 2017, 09:52:05 pm
Here's a version of OR I drew from neutral principles. It's an anti-gerrymander, but I'm curious to get an opinion from NOVA Green.



I projected the counties to 2020 from the 2016 estimates. As drawn here are the percent population deviations for the Beaverton and Salem CDs are less than 0.5% and wouldn't need any adjustment. The other CDs are all within 2.3% of the quota, and need minimal shifts to bring them to practicably equal. For example shifting all of the Warm Springs IR into the Gresham-Pendleton CD and the area north of Sexton Mtn Pass into the Eugene CD would be enough to probably meet standards for population equality.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 21, 2017, 02:27:56 pm
Also in Illinois, it's much more likely the dems draw IL-6 as a dem seat,  it's pretty easy to do using 2016 numbers.

They have to be careful there. In 2011 they thought they drew IL-12 and IL-13 as Dem leaning seats, but that didn't work out as the decade unfolded. They relied too heavily on the 2008 race repeating in 2012 and incumbents holding those seats thereafter. If Trump runs in 2020, they will have to avoid putting too much weight on anti-Trump votes in 2021, otherwise they may repeat the error of counting too many pro-Obama votes that didn't carry down ballot.

Is this a good map? i.e. especially the form of IL-06 I have.

The Dems had other political goals in 2011 than just maximizing seats. They wanted to give Duckworth a seat without pairing her against any other Dem or against Roskam. Schakowsky did not want a CD that was primarily in Lake county. Also Gutierrez lives in the northern Hispanic CD (5 on your map), and that had to stay over 59% HVAP, which preserved the wraparound IL-4. See what happens when you impose those constraints.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 21, 2017, 01:37:40 pm
Also in Illinois, it's much more likely the dems draw IL-6 as a dem seat,  it's pretty easy to do using 2016 numbers.

They have to be careful there. In 2011 they thought they drew IL-12 and IL-13 as Dem leaning seats, but that didn't work out as the decade unfolded. They relied too heavily on the 2008 race repeating in 2012 and incumbents holding those seats thereafter. If Trump runs in 2020, they will have to avoid putting too much weight on anti-Trump votes in 2021, otherwise they may repeat the error of counting too many pro-Obama votes that didn't carry down ballot.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Cube root congressional districts on: July 21, 2017, 07:00:59 am
Would there be anyway this could be turned into one big map?
We'd have to decide which maps to use first, since there are several states with multiple versions of cube root districts.
We could always vote on them, best way to weed out the overtly partisan ones, kind of like our own independent panel

Before taking a vote, one should apply neutral criteria such as lowest chop count and erosity. If there's still a tie then a vote could be applied.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What professional sporting events have you been to? on: July 20, 2017, 11:02:17 pm
I didn't think college sports were supposed to be considered professional.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What professional sporting events have you been to? on: July 20, 2017, 01:30:37 pm
I'm an old, so I've been to a lot of pro sporting events. I got to see a Celtics-Sixers game that featured Bird vs Dr. J. High up on the the list was Game 5 of the 2016 WS, a do-or-die, momentum turning game for the Cubs. But perhaps more memorable was attending Game 1 of the NLCS vs the Dodgers a couple weeks earlier. I was sitting in the mezzanine at Wrigley looking straight down the 3rd base line to see the rare sight of a stolen home base by Javier Baez, then later in the game a pinch hit grand slam by Miguel Montero.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 20, 2017, 06:53:54 am
Thanks for the Chicagoland analysis. My observation has been that the traditional suburban growth/city existed until the onset of the Great Recession. At the point the collapse of housing prices froze many people in place throughout the metro region. By 2013 housing prices had recovered enough to allow mobility, but the economy of the region was not experiencing the economic recovery of the rest of the nation. The effect is that the population declined overall. The maps seem to back up that observation.

One piece of conventional wisdom is that the outflow from the IL collar counties this decade was in part due to moves to neighboring states driven by tax policy. That CW seems to hold up to some degree in the northern collars of Lake and McHenry compared to Kenosha. It doesn't seem to hold for the eastern edge, since the neighboring areas of IN in the CSA aren't growing.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: July 19, 2017, 09:55:16 pm
Bill Daley is the new finance director for Kennedy's campaign. Biss raised more money than Kennedy did in Q2.  

Also, Chicago Tonight just had an interview with a primary challenger to Rauner.

He's a perennial candidate that gets little attention or votes.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John McCain has been diagnosed with brain cancer on: July 19, 2017, 07:30:14 pm
This is sad news. I first met him as a delegate to the 2008 RNC and with more time to talk at a fundraiser in Chicago later that year. He was again at a fundraiser outside of Chicago that I attended last fall. I got a chance to talk to him about health care. I came away with the clear impression that he thought that some of the senior Senators could work to craft a bipartisan solution, perhaps along the lines he supported during the 2007-2008 term when he ran for president.
12  About this Site / The Atlas / MOVED: Forum Political Job Thread on: July 19, 2017, 05:21:32 pm
This topic has been moved to Forum Community.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268942.0
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 18, 2017, 08:02:12 am
Which district in West Virginia likely gets eliminated: Mooney's, Jenkins', or McKinley's?
By default, Mooney's (probably). It's sandwhiched between the other two CDs.

Especially if the WV leg decides to stick to the rationale that was successful in Tennant v Jefferson County. In that case they defended a whole county plan that minimized the number of people shifted between districts. If they apply that to 2020 and a reduction of one seat, they would divvy up the counties in WV-2 between the other 2 CDs and not shift anyone between CD 1 and 3.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 18, 2017, 07:59:08 am
Arkansas is going to be interesting.  The gerrymanders may come in the makeup of the primary electorates of each district come 2022.  If legislators in the Delta Region want to have a bigger say in Congress, they might just add all of the Delta to just one district, instead of dividing it between the two currently, which does dilute its influence. 


AR used to maintain whole counties, but ditched that in the last cycle. Do you see any chance they go back to a whole county plan?
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: "The Last Lost Continent" vs. "Stairway to Heaven" on: July 17, 2017, 08:17:24 pm
My issue is that I wouldn't categorize them both as songs. A song has lyrics with words sung at distinct pitches. "Stairway to Heaven" is a rock song that starts as a folk song then evolves into driving rock. It's fair to say that "The Last Lost Continent" is a musical work, but not a song. The accompaniment is quite nice with flowing guitar and added percussion. But the lyrics are spoken as they are in hip-hop music, not sung. Just because there's a vocalist and musical instruments doesn't make it a song.

As for me I like melodic singing, with bonus points for different vocal song styles in a number. So that influences my vote in favor of Led Zeppelin.

Uh, what about instrumental music?

An orchestral piece is not a song. An instrumental jazz number is not a song. They are music, but not songs. The piece by La Dispute is a musical art form, but not a song. Dreyer is a vocalist, but not a singer.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What time do you typically eat lunch, and do you eat breakfast? on: July 17, 2017, 05:24:53 pm
I eat breakfast everyday. Almost always cereal, coffee, and frequently juice. Lunch is optional for me. If I have a busy schedule I may only grab a bottle of juice and maybe a snack bar, but sometimes nothing until later. When I do eat lunch it can vary from 11:30 until 2:30.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: State You Would Most Like To Visit on: July 17, 2017, 04:36:46 pm
I've been to all of the contiguous 48 states. So, by elimination HI and AK are highest on my list to visit. I think HI would be my number 1. Unfortunately it doesn't fit well for a road trip.

These are the states where I've been to less than half the counties, so they are also up on my list: AL, AR, CA, GA, ID, KS, LA, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NM, OK, OR, SD, TX, UT. The red/pink ones are coming up for my Aug road trip, with red for those where I'll spend at least one night.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: "The Last Lost Continent" vs. "Stairway to Heaven" on: July 17, 2017, 04:06:42 pm
My issue is that I wouldn't categorize them both as songs. A song has lyrics with words sung at distinct pitches. "Stairway to Heaven" is a rock song that starts as a folk song then evolves into driving rock. It's fair to say that "The Last Lost Continent" is a musical work, but not a song. The accompaniment is quite nice with flowing guitar and added percussion. But the lyrics are spoken as they are in hip-hop music, not sung. Just because there's a vocalist and musical instruments doesn't make it a song.

As for me I like melodic singing, with bonus points for different vocal song styles in a number. So that influences my vote in favor of Led Zeppelin.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: word association game on: July 17, 2017, 02:30:36 pm
laughing
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone V: Born Under A Bad Sign on: July 17, 2017, 06:25:35 am
Hi all.  Just checking in.  I'll be moving to the Netherlands permanently in early August.  Snagged a job at Leiden University's Philosophy Institute.  Looking forward to a new life there.

Congrats on the new position. However, it sounds like you'll miss the eclipse at Carbondale.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: early look at gerrymanders in 2020 on: July 16, 2017, 09:06:26 pm

Also, does anyone have a guess at which states are likely to gain/lose seats?


Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2016 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 6 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There is only one change since my projections last year. CA stays unchanged at 53 instead of adding a seat and FL gains 2 instead of 1 up to 29. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, AZ-10, and FL-29 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, CA-54, VA-12, and MN-8.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives the same projection as the one above, with changes only in the order of the bubble seats.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you drink alcoholic beverages? on: July 15, 2017, 10:00:00 pm
Sometimes I eat it too. Wink

I only have sweets about once or maybe twice a week. I rarely eat dessert, and most of my snacks tend to be chips or crackers (perhaps with cheese).

There are exceptions such as tonight. I made a simple soup with chicken broth, fine noodles, scallions, and parley and thyme from the garden. We had bread and wine with the soup, but there was room for more later. So I took some pineapple we had chopped fresh a few days ago, added a couple shots of rum, a dash a fresh squeezed lemon, and a topping of dark brown sugar. Does that count as sweets?
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How often do you eat sweets? on: July 15, 2017, 09:57:33 pm
I only have sweets about once or maybe twice a week. I rarely eat dessert, and most of my snacks tend to be chips or crackers (perhaps with cheese).

There are exceptions such as tonight. I made a simple soup with chicken broth, fine noodles, scallions, and parley and thyme from the garden. We had bread and wine with the soup, but there was room for more later. So I took some pineapple we had chopped fresh a few days ago, added a couple shots of rum, a dash a fresh squeezed lemon, and a topping of dark brown sugar. Does that count as sweets?
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Driving on: July 15, 2017, 07:14:46 pm
A road trip is one of the best ways to enjoy vacation. Take the back roads, see the country off the beaten path. It's all good and you have to drive to do it. FF.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: July 15, 2017, 02:16:50 pm
If I was in the legislature, I would go ahead with the 4.95% income tax, but also raise the sales tax to either 7.5% or 10.0%, and then take the resulting revenue to use to cut back at the property taxes.
The problem is the voters would just take that hike at face value and not trust that property taxes would actually go down... and rightfully so. You can't trust anything politicians say in this sorry excuse for a state.
... Which is why I would cut property taxes in the same bill. Illinois is getting by on a relatively low sales tax, but certainly too-high property taxes. Balance them out, cut spending back a bit, and it should be fine. The problem in the equation obviously is Madigan.

I'm not sure now much more one can significantly cut spending. The budget just passed had 5% cuts to all agencies and 10% cuts to higher ed. It also cut pension spending by over 1 G$. That's almost 3 G$ less spending this year than the state spent in the fiscal year ending June 30. Medicaid is one of the largest components of spending not cut, but it's hard to cut without changes to the rules in DC. One could cut transfers to local governments and schools, but that would inevitably force higher property taxes on a state with rates already at twice the national average.
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